|
on Central and South America |
|
Issue of 2024‒06‒10
six papers chosen by |
| By: | Iván Kataryniuk (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Raquel Lorenzo Alonso (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Enrique Martínez Casillas (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Jacopo Timini (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic marked a watershed for public finances in Latin America and around the world. Fiscal measures adopted in 2020 to cope with the health emergency were substantial and affected debt dynamics. While the situation partially reverted in the following years, public debt is still higher than its recent historical average for most countries in the region. In this context, the sustainability of public debt dynamics has taken on renewed importance. In this paper, we extend a standard Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) framework that considers significant features of Latin American economies – such as the existence of foreign currency denominated debt – by introducing an economic model that jointly determines future values of key macroeconomic variables. We then compute different scenarios for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, illustrating how fiscal and structural policy changes affect the dynamics of public debt. |
| Keywords: | public debt, fiscal rules, structural reforms, Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), Latin America |
| JEL: | E62 H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2412&r= |
| By: | Diogo G. C. Britto; Roberto Hsu Rocha; Paolo Pinotti; Breno Sampaio |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of having a child on parents’ criminal behavior using rich administrative data from Brazil. Fathers’ criminal activity sharply increases by up to 10% during the pregnancy period, and by up to 30% two years after birth, while mothers experience only a transitory decline in criminal activity around childbirth. The effect on fathers lasts for at least six years and can explain at least 5% of the overall male crime rate. Domestic violence within the family also increases after childbirth, reflecting both increases in actual violence and women’s propensity to report. The generalized increase in fathers’ crime stands in sharp contrast with previous evidence from developed countries, where childbirth is associated with significant and enduring declines in criminal behavior by both parents. Our findings can be explained by the costs of parenthood and the pervasiveness of poverty among newly formed Brazilian families. Consistent with this explanation, we provide novel evidence that access to maternity benefits largely offsets the increase in crime by fathers after childbirth. |
| Keywords: | crime, parenthood, maternity benefits |
| JEL: | D10 J13 K42 H55 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11083&r= |
| By: | De Vera, Micole (University College London); Garcia-Brazales, Javier (CEMFI); Rello, Luz (IE University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a reading intervention involving 600 third-grade students in Chilean schools catering to disadvantaged populations. The intervention features an adaptive computer game designed to identify and improve weaknesses in literacy and cognitive skills, and is complemented by a mobile library and advice to parents to increase student's interest and parental involvement. We first quantify the impact on non-cognitive skills and academic perceptions. We find that, after just three months of intervention, treated students are 20–30 percent of a standard deviation more likely to believe that their performance is better than that of their peers, to like school, to have stronger grit, and to have a more internal locus-of-control. Gains in aspirations and self-confidence are particularly large for students that we identify as at-risk-of-dyslexia. These improvements are reflected in better performance on a nation-wide, standardized language test. Our results show that non-cognitive skills, particularly of at-risk-of-dyslexia students, can be changed through a short, light-touch, and cost-effective education technology intervention. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, computer-based reading intervention, non-cognitive skills, Chile, dyslexia |
| JEL: | I24 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16937&r= |
| By: | Torres-Higuera, Paula (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to estimate the causal effect of extreme temperatures on time reallocation from a gender perspective. To this end, I exploit exogenous variation in temperature over 12 years within Colombian municipalities. I find that men increase the time allocated to childcare by around 13.4% in the presence of children ages 0 to 5, and by 8% in the presence of children ages 6 to 11 when exposed to heat waves. Meanwhile, women’s time is unresponsive to extreme temperatures. The results suggest that men reallocate time from paid labor to childcare when exposed to extreme heat since fatherhood is leisure-based while motherhood is still deeply linked to routine care. Given that recreational activities are not a substitute for routine care, the increase in men’s childcare hours does not reduce women’s unpaid work load. |
| Keywords: | Time Allocation; Extreme Temperatures; Unpaid Care Work. |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021133&r= |
| By: | Remicio-Tovar, Paula Alejandra (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the labor supply behavior of female Uber driver-partners in Bogota, Colombia, in response to the 2017 teacher’s strike. Using the Triple Differences approach, I compare men’s and women’s time worked and payment before and during the strike. I also compare the results based on their experience, and I find that the driver’s expertise significantly determined the extent of the strike’s effect. During the strike, both general and experienced female drivers worked 10.68 and 17.69 minutes more than men, respectively. The demographics of female Uber drivers suggest that the primary mechanisms behind the impact could have been the low dynamic ride prices and the change in their relative cost of time due to the teachers’ strike rather than increased childcare responsibilities. I use the concept of loss aversion and the income-targeting model to suggest that with the experience, female drivers tend to set a target income and are more averse than men to achieving outcomes below that benchmark. Thus, due to the strike’s negative effect on their income, they took advantage of the flexibility offered by Uber to soften the strike’s impact by working more between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. |
| Keywords: | Uber; Female labor supply; Teachers’ strike. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 J46 |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021132&r= |
| By: | Arbeláez, María Angélica (FEDESARROLLO); Cadena, Ximema (FEDESARROLLO); Forero, David (FEDESARROLLO); Alejandro, Becerra (FEDESARROLLO); Hernández, Daniel (FEDESARROLLO) |
| Abstract: | Existe consenso científico sobre la relación entre la ingesta de nutrientes y enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT), siendo los altos niveles de azúcares, sodio y grasas saturadas factores de riesgo significativos. Si bien Colombia ha implementado políticas de prevención ECNT, carece de impuestos desincentivadores para productos con altos niveles de estos nutrientes, a diferencia de otros países de América Latina. Por un lado, a través de un ejercicio de simulación utilizando modelos de equilibrio parcial y general se evaluó el impacto de un impuesto ad-valorem (5-10%) sobre alimentos y bebidas con altos niveles de azúcares, grasas y sodio. Los resultados indican una disminución en las ventas y un aumento en el recaudo. Por otro lado, mediante el Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable de Fedesarrollo (MEGF) se observa un efecto neto negativo en la economía, con reducción en el PIB, la producción y el consumo. En consecuencia, se recomienda aplicar un impuesto a todos los productos que excedan los umbrales saludables, utilizando la regulación existente, así como optar por un impuesto progresivo ad-valorem (5-10%) considerando tasas tributarias en función de impuestos existentes, vinculando la tasa a la proporción de exceso de nutrientes, complementando con políticas para conciencia alimentaria y prevención de ECNT e implementando medidas de seguimiento y control.*** Abstract: There is scientific consensus on the relationship between nutrient intake and chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with high levels of sugars, sodium and saturated fats being significant risk factors. Although Colombia has implemented NCD prevention policies, it lacks disincentive taxes for products with high levels of these nutrients, unlike other Latin American countries. On the one hand, through a simulation exercise using partial and general equilibrium models, the impact of an ad-valorem tax (5-10%) on foods and beverages with high levels of sugars, fats and sodium is evaluated. The results indicate a decrease in sales and an increase in revenues. On the other hand, Fedesarrollo's Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM) shows a negative net effect on the economy, with a reduction in the levels of GDP, production and consumption. Consequently, it is recommended to apply a tax to all products that exceed the healthy thresholds, using the existing regulation, as well as opting for a progressive ad-valorem tax (5-10%) considering tax rates based on existing taxes, linking the rate to the proportion of excess nutrients, complementing it with policies for food awareness and prevention of NCDs and implementing monitoring and control measures. |
| Keywords: | Impuesto Pigouviano; Impuesto Saludable; Recaudo Fiscal; Impuesto Económico y Social; Pigouvian Tax; Healthy Tax; Tax Collection; Economic and Social Tax |
| JEL: | E62 H23 I18 |
| Date: | 2022–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:021029&r= |