nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2024‒02‒05
five papers chosen by

  1. Contributions of international migration to development in Latin America and the Caribbean: good practices, challenges and recommendations By Cano Christiny, María Verónica; Martínez Pizarro, Jorge
  2. Impacto del covid-19 en la actividad económica y en la incertidumbre de política económica: un enfoque de datos panel para una muestra de países de América Latina By Ramírez-Orihuela, Mitzi Vania; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco
  3. From the Pandemic to the Pitch. Unraveling COVID-19's Effect on Workers' Performance By Galindo, Arturo; Tovar, Jorge
  4. Market-Based Estimates of the Natural Real Rate: Evidence from Latin American Bond Markets By Luis Ceballos; Jens H. E. Christensen; Damian Romero
  5. The gender difference in wage losses after leaving formal employment in Brazil By Eloiza Regina Ferreira de Almeida; Renata Narita

  1. By: Cano Christiny, María Verónica; Martínez Pizarro, Jorge
    Abstract: This document presents the results of five studies on the contribution of migration to sustainable development in a selection of Latin American and Caribbean countries (Chile, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico and Peru), within the framework of a project under the twelfth tranche United Nations Development Account entitled “Harnessing the contribution of international migration to sustainable development in Latin American and Caribbean countries”, implemented by ECLAC between 2020 and 2023. Evidence from economic, demographic and cultural studies is compared using quantitative and qualitative methodologies. An analysis is provided with regard to the dissemination of the studies in national workshops, which were delivered using an expository and participatory methodology to encourage relevant actors and decision makers to engage in discussions that would be useful for designing public policies based on evidence and the protection of rights. Lastly, the document includes a list of proposed indicators on the contributions of migration to development, as well as reflections and recommendations to guide and facilitate the work of policymakers on migration.
    Date: 2023–12–08
  2. By: Ramírez-Orihuela, Mitzi Vania; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco
    Abstract: Objetivo: Esta investigación examina el impacto de la pandemia de Covid-19 en la Incertidumbre de la Política Económica (EPU) y en la actividad económica en las principales economías de América Latina, específicamente en México, Brasil, Chile, Colombia y Argentina. Estas economías no sólo son las más grandes, sino también las más afectadas por la pandemia de Covid-19. Metodología: Se utiliza un modelo de datos de panel con datos diarios (enero 2019-agosto de 2021). Utilizamos las siguientes variables: índices EPU, índice de actividad económica, índice de letalidad. Resultados: Los principales hallazgos con que las economías latinoamericanas sufrieron una fuerte desaceleración en la actividad económica, afectando principalmente en el sector industrial, sector servicios, comercio al menudeo, construcción, manufactura, consumo y turismo, ocasionado por las medidas de contención implementadas por cada gobierno. Así mismo, la evidencia empírica muestra que un choque de incertidumbre tiende a reducir el nivel de actividad económica. Además, la actividad económica impacta en la incertidumbre de política económica. Por último, ante aumentos en los casos confirmados de Covid-19, se presentaron disminuciones en el índice de actividad económica para todos los países de estudio, siendo Brasil y Argentina los más afectados. // Objective: This research examines the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and economic activity in the main economies of Latin America, specifically in Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Argentina. These economies are not only the largest, but also the most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Methodology: A panel data model is used (January 2019-August 2021). We use the following variables: EPU indices, economic activity index and fatality index. Results: The main findings are that Latin American economies suffered a strong slowdown in economic activity, mainly affecting the industrial sector, services sector, retail trade, construction, manufacturing, consumption and tourism, caused by the containment measures implemented by each government. Likewise, empirical evidence shows that an uncertainty shock tends to reduce the level of economic activity. Moreover, economic activity impacts the uncertainty of economic policy. Finally, due to the increase in confirmed cases of Covid-19, there were drops in the economic activity index of all the countries in the study, with Brazil and Argentina being the most affected.
    Keywords: economic activity, economic policy uncertainty, panel data models, Latin American countries.
    JEL: C54
    Date: 2024–01–04
  3. By: Galindo, Arturo (Inter-American Development Bank); Tovar, Jorge (Universidad de los Andes)
    Abstract: There is a growing body of literature on the impact that COVID-19 has on workers' performance upon recovery. This paper explores that question using granular data from professional athletes. Using a difference-in-difference estimation strategy and estimating an n-dimensional performance index, we find that performance drops upon recovery during the first thirty days a􀅌er infection by 13, 4%. Exploiting the mountainous geography of Colombia, our results indicate that the main driver of such a drop is performing at high altitudes.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Football; Soccer; Workers Performance
    JEL: H12 I18 J21 J40 O54 Z20
    Date: 2024–01–18
  4. By: Luis Ceballos; Jens H. E. Christensen; Damian Romero
    Abstract: We provide market-based estimates of the natural real rate, that is, the steady-state short-term real interest rate, for Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Our approach uses a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual inflation indexed bonds with adjustments for bond-specific liquidity and real term premia. First, we find that inflation-indexed bond liquidity premia in all three countries are sizable with significant variation. Second, we find large differences in their estimated equilibrium real rates: Brazil’s is large and volatile, Mexico’s is stable but elevated, while Chile’s is low and has fallen persistently. Although uncertain, our estimates could have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy in these three countries.
    Keywords: affine arbitrage-free models; financial markets; frictions; monetary policy; rstar
    JEL: C32 E43 E52 G12
    Date: 2023–12–21
  5. By: Eloiza Regina Ferreira de Almeida; Renata Narita
    Abstract: This article investigates gender differences in wage losses in Brazil resulting from job dismissal and periods of non-formal employment. It examines the wage dynamics of men and women to determine the occurrence and magnitude of these losses, as well as the subsequent recovery process upon returning to formal employment. Using administrative employer-employee data from 2003 to 2018, the study employs a matching strategy and event-study estimation to analyze the transitions from formal employment. Estimations are conducted separately for men and women. The findings reveal that both genders experience immediate and persistent wage losses after leaving formal employment. Women generally experience lower losses (7.4%) compared to men (10.5%), but men exhibit a faster recovery within the first three years after reentering formal employment. Additionally, longer periods of non-formal employment are associated with higher wage losses. Workers who voluntarily leave their jobs experience losses 60% lower than those who are dismissed, and they fully recover their wages within the second year after reentering formal employment. This study emphasizes the importance of examining job transitions and their impact on wages throughout individuals' careers, particularly concerning gender differentials.
    Keywords: Wage differences; gender differences; job dismissal
    JEL: J16 J31 J63
    Date: 2024–01–09

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