nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2023‒07‒10
six papers chosen by

  1. The Increasing Impact of Spain on the Equity Markets of Brazil, Chile and Mexico By Andres Rivas; Rahul Verma; Antonio Rodriguez; Pedro H. Albuquerque
  2. Do Deep Regional Trade Agreements Facilitate Regional Production Networks in Latin American and Caribbean Countries? By Yoshimichi Murakami
  3. A Review of Changes in the Global Value Chain of Latin America By Hong, Sungwoo
  4. Campaign Connections By Bazzi, Samuel; Labanca, Claudio
  5. The OECD Skills Profiling Tool: A new instrument to improve career decisions By Michele Tuccio; Katharine Mullock; Patricia Navarro-Palau; Erika Xiomara Chaparro Perez
  6. From targeted private benefits to public goods: land, distributive politics and changing political conditions in Colombia By Benson, Allison L.

  1. By: Andres Rivas (Primerica); Rahul Verma (University of Houston, Downtown); Antonio Rodriguez (Texas A&M International University); Pedro H. Albuquerque (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France and ACCELERATION & ADAPTATION, Aix-en-Provence, France)
    Abstract: The article examines stock index price responses in Brazil, Chile and Mexico to those in the US, Spain and four European countries during three sub-periods surrounding the neoliberal reforms of the 1990s: 1988 to 1994, 1995 to 1998, and 1999 to 2004, using VAR modeling. It finds that equity markets became more interconnected as countries opened to international trade and capital flows, and that there was an increasing impact of Spain on Latin American equity markets. Stronger economic linkages (more trade and foreign direct investment) between Spain and these countries, specially in Brazil, seem to explain increased equity markets interconnectedness.
    Keywords: Emerging markets, Latin America, Spain, Stock markets interdependence, VAR modeling
    JEL: G15 O54 C22
    Date: 2023–05
  2. By: Yoshimichi Murakami (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN)
    Abstract: This study analyzes the causal effects of the depth of regional trade agreements (RTAs) measured by the coverage and legal enforceability of WTO-plus and WTO-extra policy areas on the production networks trade in all 33 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries from 1990 to 2016, using a structural gravity model. The study constructs a unique dataset on the indexes of the depth, breadth, and core depth of all RTAs in force that include at least two LAC countries, based on a World Bank database on RTAs’ contents. Results indicate that both depth and breadth of RTAs have positive effects on the intra-regional parts and components exports in the LAC region. However, the effects are substantially heterogeneous by the type of agreements and the characteristics of country-pairs. The depth of custom unions among Latin American countries, mainly the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), has positive effects, whereas the depth and breadth of plurilateral free trade agreements with developed countries outside the region (e.g., the United States or European countries) have negative effects. These findings are robust to the use of the mirror import data, the use of three-year interval data, and the inclusion of future values that controls for reverse causality.
    Keywords: Depth and breadth of regional trade agreements; Parts and components exports; Heterogeneous effects; Latin American and Caribbean countries; Structural gravity model
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 O54
    Date: 2023–03
    Abstract: Based on the findings of the value chain analysis conducted on major Latin American countries, it suggests that these countries may have derived certain economic benefits. This can be attributed to the increased exports to the United States and China, where Latin American countries served as substitute countries for imports during the intensifying competition between the two nations. Amidst the U.S.-China hegemony race and the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a notable shift in focus. Particularly, the United States is actively working to establish secure and stable supply chains, primarily centered around its own country and allied nations, with the intention of reducing dependence on China. As part of this process, the United States advocates for reshoring or near-shoring, which involves relocating production facilities to its home country or neighboring nations. Additionally, the U.S. is implementing various incentives to support this objective. If near-shoring takes place in Latin America, they can be regarded as favorable locations for establishing a foothold to access North America or securing key minerals. Additionally, Latin American countries with substantial backward linkages should be prioritized in trade with the United States. Among them, Mexico and Brazil, which exhibit relatively high levels of backward linkage within Latin America, are considered suitable hubs due to their capacity for generating significant foreign added value in their exports to the United States.
    Keywords: GVC; Latin America
    Date: 2023–05–25
  4. By: Bazzi, Samuel (University of California, San Diego); Labanca, Claudio (Monash University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the labor market returns to working on a victorious political campaign. Using unique administrative data from Brazil, we track the earnings and employment of campaign workers before and after close elections spanning nearly 20 years. We identify sizable returns to working for a winning campaign, especially in areas with a large informal sector and for workers connected to newly elected challengers. The returns are concentrated in the public sector, where connected hires are relatively more qualified. Our results suggest a potential upside to patronage as campaign connections create new pathways to public administration for young, high-ability workers.
    Keywords: electoral campaigns, labor markets, patronage, political connections
    JEL: D72 D73 J45 J46 P00 O17
    Date: 2023–05
  5. By: Michele Tuccio; Katharine Mullock; Patricia Navarro-Palau; Erika Xiomara Chaparro Perez
    Abstract: This paper documents the development and piloting of the OECD Skills Profiling Tool. The OECD Skills Profiling Tool assesses three types of skills: occupation-specific skills; foundational skills (literacy, numeracy and digital skills); and a set of noncognitive skills using academically validated self-reported tests. After completion of the assessment, the OECD Skills Profiling Tool generates two sets of results: a personalised skill profile, which can be benchmarked against other users; and a list of suggested occupations that make use of those skills. In December 2021, 270 users and 38 career guidance counsellors in Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru tested the OECD Skills Profiling Tool. This paper describes the selection of assessment instruments, the methodology used to generate the results provided by the OECD Skills Profiling Tool and the outcomes of the piloting phase of the tool.
    JEL: I24 J24 J63
    Date: 2023–06–13
  6. By: Benson, Allison L.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how changes in political conditions affect distributive politics. We study the case of Colombia, focusing on the strategic allocation of land in relation to the electoral cycle. Relying on over 55.000 municipality-year observations on land allocations, exogenous timing of elections and sociodemographic controls, we show that there is a political land cycle (PLC), and that this cycle is dependent on the local political conditions in place. We analyze the changes in the PLC derived from the implementation of a deep political reform that increased political competition and the fiscal and administrative capacity of the state, doing so heterogeneously across municipalities. We show that the PLC decreased by half after the reform, with this reduction being stronger in municipalities in which political competition and fiscal and administrative capacity increased the most. The heterogeneous reduction in the PLC does not appear to stem from an aggregate weakening of distributive politics, but rather, from a re-composition of the distributive politics portfolio: away from the allocation of private targeted benefits like land, and towards the strategic allocation of public goods. We discuss the incentive and capacity effects explaining this re-composition likely affecting the relative costs and benefits of different types of distributive politics resources. The results evidence the importance of understanding not only the territorial dimension of distributive politics, but also how the specific traits of resources determine distributive politics strategies and their resilience to contextual changes.
    Keywords: Colombia; distributive politics; electoral cycles; land reform; political reforms; targeted benefits
    JEL: D72 D73 H41 H42 L33 Q15
    Date: 2021–10–01

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