nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2021‒09‒13
five papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
Universidad de la República

  1. Long Term Effects of Cash Transfer Programs in Colombia By Orazio Attanasio; Lina Cardona-Sosa; Carlos Medina; Costas Meghir; Christian Posso
  2. Social Mobility and Economic Development: Evidence from a Panel of Latin American Regions By Guido Neidhöfer; Matías Ciaschi; Leonardo Gasparini; Joaquín Serrano
  3. (Successful) Democracies Breed Their Own Support By Acemoglu, Daron; Ajzenman, Nicolas; Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Fiszbein, Martin; Molina, Carlos
  4. Reglas fiscales subnacionales: Revisión empírica, experiencias internacionales y sus desafíos en la nueva institucionalidad fiscal post COVID By Juan Pablo Jiménez; Leonardo Letelier; Ignacio Ruelas; Jaime Bonet-Morón
  5. Broken windows policing and crime: Evidence from 80 Colombian cities By Santiago Tobón Zapata; Daniel Mejía; Ervyn Norza; Martín Vanegas-Arias

  1. By: Orazio Attanasio; Lina Cardona-Sosa; Carlos Medina; Costas Meghir; Christian Posso
    Abstract: Conditional Cash transfer (CCT) programs have been shown to have positive effects on a variety of outcomes including education, consumption and health visits, amongst others. We estimate the long-run impacts of the urban version of Familias en Acción, the Colombian CCT program on crime, teenage pregnancy, high school dropout and college enrollment using a Regression Discontinuity design on administrative data. ITT estimates show a reduction on arrest rates of 2.7pp for men and a reduction on teenage pregnancy of 2.3pp for women. High school dropout rates were reduced by 5.8pp and college enrollment was increased by 1.7pp for men. **** RESUMEN: Los programas de transferencias condicionadas de dinero (CCT) han mostrado tener efectos positivos de corto plazo en educación, consumo, y asistencia a citas médicas, entre otros. Nosotros estimamos los impactos de largo plazo del CCT urbano Colombiano Familias en Acción sobre crimen, fecundidad adolescente, deserción escolar en secundaria, y matrícula en postsecundaria, utilizando un diseño de regresión discontinua con datos administrativos. Estimadores ITT muestran una reducción de 2.7 pp en las tasas de arresto de hombres y una reducción en la fecundidad adolescente de mujeres de 2.3 pp. Las tasas de deserción de secundaria se reducen en 5.8 pp, y para los hombres la matrícula postsecundaria se incrementa en 1.7 pp.
    Keywords: CCT programs, human capital accumulation, crime, adolescent pregnancy, RDD, Programas de transferencias condicionadas, acumulación de capital humano, crimen, fecundidad adolescente, RDD.
    JEL: D04 K42 I23 I28 I38 J13
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1170&r=
  2. By: Guido Neidhöfer (ZEW Mannheim); Matías Ciaschi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Joaquín Serrano (UCLA & CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP)
    Abstract: We explore the role of social mobility as a driver of economic development by constructing a panel data set that includes measures of intergenerational mobility of education at the sub-national level in Latin America. First, we map the geography of educational mobility for 52 Latin American regions, as well as its evolution over time. Then, through a novel weighting procedure that considers the participation of cohorts to the economy in each year, we estimate the effect of changes in mobility on economic indicators, such as income per capita, poverty, child mortality, and luminosity. Hereby, we control for several covariates, including migration, educational expansions, initial conditions, and unobserved cross-regional heterogeneity. Our findings show that increasing social mobility had a significant and robust impact on the development of Latin American regions.
    JEL: D63 I24 J62 O15
    Date: 2021–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0286&r=
  3. By: Acemoglu, Daron (MIT); Ajzenman, Nicolas (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV); Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Fiszbein, Martin (Boston University); Molina, Carlos (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Using large-scale survey data covering more than 110 countries and exploiting within-country variation across cohorts and surveys, we show that individuals with longer exposure to democracy display stronger support for democratic institutions. We bolster these baseline findings using an instrumental-variables strategy exploiting regional democratization waves and focusing on immigrants' exposure to democracy before migration. In all cases, the timing and nature of the effects are consistent with a causal interpretation. We also establish that democracies breed their own support only when they are successful: all of the effects we estimate work through exposure to democracies that are successful in providing economic growth, peace and political stability, and public goods.
    Keywords: democracy, economic growth, institutions, support for democracy, values
    JEL: P16
    Date: 2021–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14691&r=
  4. By: Juan Pablo Jiménez; Leonardo Letelier; Ignacio Ruelas; Jaime Bonet-Morón
    Abstract: Durante las últimas dos décadas, la utilización de reglas fiscales ha tenido un aumento significativo alrededor del mundo. Si bien la evidencia internacional ha destacado algunos beneficios a partir de su implementación, las experiencias de América Latina en la puesta en marcha y los resultados han sido heterogéneos. Esas reglas fiscales inicialmente cobijaban a los gobiernos nacionales, pero luego se fueron ampliando a los subnacionales, en parte porque los procesos de descentralización fiscal fueron entregando más responsabilidades en materia de ingreso y gasto público a los gobiernos subnacionales. La revisión de las experiencias internacionales en esta materia provee lecciones de política importantes para futuros cambios en las normas de responsabilidad fiscal nacional y subnacional en los países, en especial ante las condiciones que ha impuesto al sector público la pandemia del COVID-19. Este documento hace una revisión exhaustiva de la evolución de las reglas fiscales subnacionales alrededor del mundo, identificando los principales factores que contribuyen al éxito o fracaso de estas. Además, permite identificar los elementos clave en una posible agenda de reforma ante las fallas en las reglas fiscales que ha visibilizado la actual pandemia. **** ABSTRACT: During the last two decades the use of fiscal rules has increased significantly around the world. Although international evidence has highlighted some benefits from its implementation, the experiences of Latin America in the implementation and the results have been heterogeneous. These fiscal rules initially covered the national governments but were later extended to subnational governments, in part because the fiscal decentralization processes were handing more responsibilities in terms of revenue and public spending to subnational governments. The review of international experiences in this area provides important policy lessons for future reforms in national and subnational fiscal responsibility regulations, especially given the conditions imposed on the public sector by the COVID-19 pandemic. This document makes an extensive review of the evolution of subnational fiscal rules worldwide, identifying the main factors that contribute to their success or failure. In addition, it allows identifying the key elements in a possible reform agenda to face the flaws in the fiscal rules that the current pandemic has made visible.
    Keywords: Reglas fiscales, gobiernos subnacionales, COVID-19, Fiscal rules, subnational governments, COVID-19
    JEL: H72 H77 R50
    Date: 2021–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:300&r=
  5. By: Santiago Tobón Zapata; Daniel Mejía; Ervyn Norza; Martín Vanegas-Arias
    JEL: K42 O17 E26 J48 C93
    Date: 2021–09–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:019514&r=

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