nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2021‒07‒12
four papers chosen by

  1. Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: Prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America By Neidhöfer, Guido; Lustig, Nora; Tommasi, Mariano
  2. Life Expectancy and Income Levels in Chile By Gonzalo Edwards; Raimundo Soto; Felipe Zurita
  3. The Risk of Automation in Latin America By Leonardo Gasparini; Irene Brambilla; Guillermo Falcone; Carlo Lombardo; Andrés César
  4. El Teletrabajo como Mitigador de los Impactos Económicos de la Pandemia de COVID-19 en Argentina By Pablo de la Vega

  1. By: Neidhöfer, Guido; Lustig, Nora; Tommasi, Mariano
    Abstract: The shock on human capital caused by COVID-19 is likely to have long lasting consequences, especially for children of low-educated families. Applying a counterfactual exercise we project the effects of school closures and other lockdown policies on the intergenerational persistence of education in 17 Latin American countries. First, we retrieve detailed information on school lockdowns and on the policies enacted to support education from home in each country. Then, we use these information to estimate the potential impact of the pandemic on schooling, high school completion, and intergenerational associations. In addition, we account for educational disruptions related to household income shocks. Our findings show that, despite that mitigation policies were able to partly reduce instructional losses in some countries, the educational attainment of the most vulnerable could be seriously affected. In particular, the likelihood of children from low educated families to attain a secondary schooling degree could fall substantially.
    Keywords: COVID-19,lockdowns,human capital,school closures,intergenerational persistence,education,inequality,Latin America
    JEL: I24 I38 J62
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Gonzalo Edwards; Raimundo Soto; Felipe Zurita
    Abstract: We document that life expectancies at the age of retirement differ significantly by income levels and gender in Chile. Using a sample of over 500 thousand workers that retired under the annuity system, we find that, conditional on reaching retirement age, there is a three-year difference in life expectancy between the lower and higher income groups. Differences are similar for men and women. We also find that as income per capita in Chile expanded over the past three decades, poverty levels have decreased quite markedly among pensioners. The evidence on income distribution is less clear cut. While income inequality is lower for the new generations, it increases after retirement within each generation as the poor die younger than the rich workers. Gender differences are also noteworthy. First, income among women is less unequal than that of men at retirement age and afterwards. Second, income inequality among retired men progressively worsens over time, while among women it remains stagnant over time. Our results have important implications for welfare projections, the allocation of health subsidies among pensioners, and the structure and management of the reserves required to life-insurance companies.
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Irene Brambilla (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Guillermo Falcone (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Carlo Lombardo (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Andrés César (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP)
    Abstract: In this paper we characterize workers’ vulnerability to automation in the near future in the six largest Latin American economies as a function of the exposure to routinization of the tasks that they perform and the potential automation of their occupation. We combine (i) indicators of potential automatability by occupation and (ii) worker’s information on occupation and other labor variables. We find that the ongoing process of automation is likely to significantly affect the structure of employment. In particular, unskilled and semi-skilled workers are likely to bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment costs. Automation will probably be a more dangerous threat for equality than for overall employment.
    JEL: J21 J23 J24 O33
    Date: 2021–06
  4. By: Pablo de la Vega (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP)
    Abstract: En este trabajo se mide el rol de la modalidad de teletrabajo como mitigador de los impactos de un shock como la pandemia de COVID-19 en el mercado laboral argentino utilizando la estructura de paneles rotativos de la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH). Dado que no se cuenta con información sobre la composición de tareas de las ocupaciones para Argentina, se estima el potencial de teletrabajo en base a tres encuestas diferentes: O*NET, PIAAC, y STEP, para luego extrapolarlo a la Clasificación Nacional de Ocupaciones (CNO). De este modo es posible analizar cómo la viabilidad del teletrabajo se relaciona con los resultados del mercado laboral a nivel individual. Se encuentra que, durante el pico de las restricciones frente a la pandemia, el potencial de teletrabajo está positivamente correlacionado con la probabilidad de estar activo, con la probabilidad de estar ocupado, y con más horas trabajadas. Estos efectos se concentran en la submuestra de trabajadores “no esenciales†. Por el contrario, no se encuentran efectos sistemáticos del teletrabajo potencial en las transiciones de empleo entre 2017 y 2018 y entre 2018 y 2019. Sirviendo como experimento placebo, esto representa evidencia adicional que brinda sustento a la estrategia de identificación.
    JEL: D10 J20 J30 J40
    Date: 2021–07

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