nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2020‒11‒16
three papers chosen by

  1. (She)cession: The Colombian female staircase fall By Karen García-Rojas; Paula Herrera-Idárraga; Leonardo Fabio Morales; Natalia Ramírez-Bustamante; Ana María Tribín-Uribe
  2. The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC By Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira; Prem, Mounu; Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul; Vargas, Juan F.
  3. The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries By Crombach, Lamar Gerard Alfons; Smits, Jeroen

  1. By: Karen García-Rojas (Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas); Paula Herrera-Idárraga (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana); Leonardo Fabio Morales (Banco de la República de Colombia); Natalia Ramírez-Bustamante (Universidad de los Andes); Ana María Tribín-Uribe (United Nations Development Program in Latin America and the Caribbean)
    Abstract: This article seeks to analyze the Colombian labor market during the COVID-19 crisis to explore its effect on labor market gender gaps. The country offers an interesting setting for analysis because, as most countries in the Global South, it has an employment market that combines formal and informal labor, which complicates the nature of the pandemic's aftermath. Our exploration offers an analysis that highlights the crisis's effects as in a downward staircase fall that mainly affects women compared to men. We document a phenomenon that we will call a "female staircase fall." Women lose status in the labor market; the formal female workers' transition to informal jobs, occupied women fall to unemployment, and the unemployed go to inactivity; therefore, more and more women are relegated to domestic work. We also study how women’s burden of unpaid care has increased due to the crisis, affecting their participation in paid employment. **** RESUMEN: Este artículo busca analizar el mercado laboral colombiano durante la crisis de COVID-19 y el efecto de esta crisis sobre las brechas de género. Colombia ofrece un escenario interesante para el análisis porque, como la mayoría de los países del Sur Global, tiene un mercado laboral que combina trabajo formal e informal, lo que complica las secuelas de la pandemia. Nuestra exploración ofrece un análisis que destaca los efectos de la crisis en términos de una caída de escalera descendente que afecta principalmente a las mujeres. En el trabajo documentamos un fenómeno de "caída de escalera femenina". Muchas mujeres pierden estatus en el mercado laboral; hay una marcada transición de trabajadoras formales a empleos informales, las mujeres ocupadas en empleos formales e informales caen al desempleo y las desempleadas pasan a la inactividad; en consecuencia, cada vez más mujeres se ven relegadas al trabajo doméstico. Finalmente, estudiamos cómo ha aumentado la carga de las mujeres en cuidados no remunerados debido a la crisis, lo que ha afectado su participación en el empleo remunerado.
    Keywords: Gender gap, informality, employment, time use, Colombia, COVID-19, brecha de género, informalidad, empleo, uso del tiempo, Colombia, COVID-19
    JEL: D10 E24 J16 J22
    Date: 2020–11
  2. By: Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira; Prem, Mounu; Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul; Vargas, Juan F.
    Abstract: Violent environments are known to affect household fertility choices, demand for health services and health outcomes of newborns. Using administrative data with a difference-in- differences, we study how the end of the 50 years old Colombian conflict with FARC modified such decisions and outcomes in traditionally affected areas of the country. Results indicate that generalised reductions in total fertility rate were slowed down for municipalities traditionally affected by conflict as a result of the permanent ceasefire declared by the FARC insurgency. Total fertility rate observed a relative increase of 2.6% in the formerly conflict-affected areas, in all age groups. However, no impact was found for demand of health care services, neonatal and infant mortality rates, or birth outcomes such as the incidence of low weight at birth or the percentage of preterm births. Our evidence shows that municipalities with mines victims and expelled population by forced displacement before the ceasefire have significantly higher total fertility rate in the four years following the ceasefire. We argue that the mechanism behind this result is the optimism to raise the children in a better environment due to the reduction in victimisation in areas that experience FARC violence.
    Date: 2020–10–22
  3. By: Crombach, Lamar Gerard Alfons (KOF Swiss Economic Institute ETH Zürich); Smits, Jeroen
    Abstract: Data for 91 low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) are used to investigate the effect of the demographic transition on economic growth at sub-national level. We introduce a detailed classification of demographic window (DW) phases, determine how these phases are distributed among and within LMICs, and analyze the relationship between the DW and economic growth for 1,921 urban and rural areas of sub-national regions. Many regions in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have entered the window, but most of sub-Saharan Africa is still in the traditional or pre-window phase. Multilevel analyses reveal higher growth rates in areas with lower and decreasing dependency ratios. Demographic effects are stronger in rural, more developed and more educated regions. Findings indicate that, in the coming years, the DW might strengthen economic growth in rural areas of LMICs, and particularly if accompanied by investments in education and rural development.
    Date: 2020–11–05

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