nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2019‒04‒22
two papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
Universidad de la República

  1. Juvenile Incarceration and Adult Recidivism By Tomás Cortés; Nicolás Grau; Jorge Rivera
  2. How Effective are Innovation Support Programs to Stimulate Innovation? Evidence from Paraguay By Diego Aboal; Gustavo Rojas; Belén Servín; Paz Queraltó

  1. By: Tomás Cortés; Nicolás Grau; Jorge Rivera
    Abstract: Although there is debate about whether juvenile incarceration deters future crime, it is a common practice worldwide. We contribute to this debate by using Chilean data to assess the causal impact of different types of juvenile incarceration on recidivism in young adulthood (18-21 years old). To address the endogeneity issues, we use the quasi random assignment of detention judges as instrumental variable to estimate the effect of pretrial detention, and the quasi random assignment of public attorneys to estimate the effect of any type of incarceration. Considering a standard IV linear model, we find that pretrial detention increases the probability of recidivism by 61 percentage points (pp), and when we define the treatment as any type of incarceration, this impact is equal to 65 pp. When we estimate bivariate probit models – using a novel approach for estimating this model in the context of fixed effects – the impact of pretrial detention and incarceration on recidivism are equal to 12 pp and 15 pp, respectively. We also estimate the marginal treatment effect (MTE), finding that the magnitudes of the marginal effects are larger for those individuals with low treatment probabilities. If we use MTE estimates to calculate the average treatment effect (ATE), the impact of pretrial detention on recidivism is equal to 28 pp. If we define the treatment as any type of incarceration, this impact is equal to 36 pp. Finally, we find that an important mechanism behind these impacts is the effect of these different types of incarceration on high school graduation.
    Date: 2019–03
  2. By: Diego Aboal; Gustavo Rojas; Belén Servín; Paz Queraltó
    Abstract: In this paper we evaluate the impact of two programs to support innovation in micro, small and medium enterprises in Paraguay. This article has two contributions to literature. First, the evidence on the impact of this type of programs in developing countries is still scarce. Second, we evaluate the impacts on some variables that have been largely overlooked in the literature, such as innovation activities other than R&D. The evaluation finds positive and significant effects on the probability of carrying out various innovation activities, on the probability of achieving different types of innovation and on the incorporation of technical personnel to the firms. A negative effect on R&D was found, which might be showing a displacement effect of this innovation activity by others. The most robust results are those related to the impact of the program on process and product innovation. The impacts on innovation activities and employment are less robust to alternative specifications and samples.
    Keywords: Innovation support programs, innovation, impact evaluation, Paraguay
    JEL: O31 O32 O38 C21
    Date: 2019–04–11

This nep-lam issue is ©2019 by Maximo Rossi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.