nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2017‒10‒22
five papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
Universidad de la República

  1. Active Labour Market Programmes in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from a Meta Analysis By Escudero, Veronica; Kluve, Jochen; Mourelo, Elva López; Pignatti, Clemente
  2. Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies By Mario Cimoli; Jose Antonio Ocampo; Gabriel Porcile
  3. Gasto público social en la infancia y adolescencia en el Uruguay By Colacce, Maira; Manzi, Pilar; Tenenbaum, Victoria
  4. Long-Term Care in Latin America and the Caribbean? Theory and Policy Considerations By Caruso Bloeck, Martín; Galiani, Sebastian; Ibarrarán, Pablo
  5. Impact of human capital on opportunity entrepreneurship in Colombia, Chile and Ecuador By Geovanny Castro Aristizabal; Luis Eduardo Giron Cruz; Daniel Soto Cuadros

  1. By: Escudero, Veronica (ILO International Labour Organization); Kluve, Jochen (Humboldt University Berlin, RWI); Mourelo, Elva López (ILO International Labour Organization); Pignatti, Clemente (ILO International Labour Organization)
    Abstract: We present a systematic collection and assessment of impact evaluations of active labour market programmes (ALMP) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The paper delineates the strategy to compile a novel meta database and provides a narrative review of 51 studies. Based on these studies, the quantitative analysis extracts a sample of 296 impact estimates, and uses meta regression models to analyse systematic patterns in the data. In addition to analysing earnings and employment outcomes as in previous meta analyses, we also code and investigate measures of job quality, such as the effects on hours worked and formality. We find that ALMPs in LAC are particularly effective in increasing the probability of having a formal job, compared to other outcomes. Our results also show that training programmes are slightly more effective than other types of interventions. Moreover, when looking at the sample of training programmes alone, we observe that formal employment is also the outcome category that is most likely to be impacted positively by these programmes. In terms of targeting, we find that ALMPs in the region work better for women than for men, and for youth compared to prime-age workers. Finally, medium-run estimates are not more likely to be positive than short-run estimates, while programmes of short duration (4 months or less) are significantly less likely to produce positive effects compared to longer interventions.
    Keywords: active labour market program, Latin America and the Caribbean, employment, informality, impact evaluation, meta analysis
    JEL: J08 J24 O54
    Date: 2017–09
  2. By: Mario Cimoli; Jose Antonio Ocampo; Gabriel Porcile
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depend on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, gave rise to loss of capabilities and lagging behind. Tests of structural break in times series of indexes of technological intensity of the production structure confirm the long run effects of financial shocks in the Latin American case. In the case of Korea there is evidence of hysteresis à la Baldwin-Krugman: a high RER was initially required to export and diversity the economy, but it was no longer necessary when the country had already built indigenous capabilities.
    Date: 2017–10–17
  3. By: Colacce, Maira; Manzi, Pilar; Tenenbaum, Victoria
    Abstract: En este estudio se analizan los recursos que el Estado destina en el área social para los menores de 18 años en Uruguay. El análisis del Gasto Público Social por edad es particularmente importante frente a los fuertes cambios demográficos que Uruguay enfrentará en el tiempo. Por otro lado, la importancia del esfuerzo fiscal que el Estado destina a niñas, niños y adolescentes radica en que esta etapa constituye un período fundamental para el desarrollo físico y mental de las personas. Además de su dimensionamiento, es relevante conocer en qué categorías se concentra el gasto y cuán direccionado a los menores de 18 años se encuentra, y así evaluar la intencionalidad del mismo.
    Date: 2017–10
  4. By: Caruso Bloeck, Martín (Universidad Nacional de la Plata); Galiani, Sebastian (University of Maryland); Ibarrarán, Pablo (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper discusses theoretical and practical issues related to long-term care (LTC) services in Latin America. Demand for these services will rise as the region undergoes a swift demographic transition from its currently young population to a rapidly aging one, especially since the region's aging cohorts are more prone to experience a decline in their functional and physical abilities than elderly people elsewhere in the world. We argue that private insurance markets are ill-equipped to provide coverage to meet the need for LTC, while the amount of personal savings required to afford self-insurance is prohibitively high. We study how developed economies have dealt with the issue of LTC and pay special attention to the most salient features of their LTC programs. We then direct the discussion to Latin America, where LTC may not be an immediate priority, but governments are likely to encourage the development of LTC programs as demand for them steadily grows. In particular, policymakers are probably going to focus initially on LTC programs for the poor and the vulnerable, for whom LTC affordability is a greater problem. We therefore study how basic elements of policy design affect cost-effectiveness of LTC programs by means of a formal model. Our study shows that pro-poor programs are more cost effective when people have the option to receive cash subsidies, and the availability of in-kind and in-cash choices reduces program costs overall. We argue that our findings are natural starting points to start thinking about LTC program development in the region.
    Keywords: long-term care, long-term care insurance, population aging, Latin America
    JEL: J14 N36
    Date: 2017–09
  5. By: Geovanny Castro Aristizabal; Luis Eduardo Giron Cruz; Daniel Soto Cuadros (Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali)
    Abstract: The present study finds the main factors that influence entrepreneurship in Colombia, Chile and Ecuador, based on data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor -GEM, 2014- and the Entrepreneurship Activity Rate -TEA-. For this, initially, the multivariate method of Multiple Correspondence Analysis was used. Subsequently, a binomial logit model was estimated for each of the countries. It was found that both formal and informal human capital are determinant to generate entrepreneurship by opportunity. Likewise, experience, empirical knowledge, gender and age. Finally, by including in the model the technological level of the sector (medium-high), it was estimated that Chile has a greater impact on entrepreneurship. given the current situation of diminishing tensions with the US government.
    Keywords: Cuba, Entrepreneurship opportunity, Logit models, Multiple Correspondence Analysis, Human Capital, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile.
    JEL: J24 L26 Y40
    Date: 2017–10

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