nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2016‒07‒16
six papers chosen by

  1. Effects of Demographic and Educational Changes on the Labor Markets of Brazil and Mexico By Amaral, Ernesto F. L.; Queiroz, Bernardo L.; Calazans, Julia A.
  2. Efectos de los cambios de la tasa de interés de Estados Unidos sobre Colombia, Perú y Chile By Carlos Fernando Daza Moreno; Jorge Mario Uribe
  3. Causas del desempleo en Colombia en el siglo XXI: Evidencia a partir de un modelo var-x cointegrado By Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuña; Paola Andrea Vaca González
  4. How Productive is Rural Infrastructure? Evidence on Some Agricultural Crops in Colombia By Ignacio Lozano-Espitia; Lina Ma. Ramírez-Villegas
  5. Characterization of Fertility Levels in Brazil, 1970-2010 By Amaral, Ernesto F. L.; Almeida, Mariana Eugenio; Goncalves, Guilherme Quaresma
  6. Voting for the environment: the importance of Democracy and education in Latin America By Danny García Callejas

  1. By: Amaral, Ernesto F. L.; Queiroz, Bernardo L.; Calazans, Julia A.
    Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of demographic and educational changes on the earnings and returns to schooling of workers in Brazil and Mexico. Our analysis takes into account demographic, educational and economic variations within each country over time, using Censuses microdata from Brazil and Mexico. Results suggest that demographic and educational transitions generate impact on earnings and on returns to education. The proportion of people in age-education groups tends to have a negative impact on earnings. These impacts are more detrimental among age-education groups with higher education, but they are having less of a negative effect over time. We also find that the concentration of skilled labor has positive impacts on the rates of returns to education and that they are greater than those observed in more developed countries. Moreover, in Brazil and Mexico, these effects are observed throughout the income distribution, contrary to what is observed in studies for the United States.
    Keywords: demographic transition, education transition, cohort size, earnings, labor markets, Brazil, Mexico
    Date: 2015–02
  2. By: Carlos Fernando Daza Moreno; Jorge Mario Uribe
    Abstract: En este documento se exploran los efectos de la política monetaria de Estados Unidos sobre las economías de Colombia, Perú y Chile. Se hace uso de modelos SVAR-X Se encuentra que la política monetaria estadounidense tiene efectos de escasa magnitud y diversos sobre las economías estudiadas. En Colombia, una política monetaria contractiva externa está acompañada de un leve incremento de la actividad económica dos meses después de su implementación, un escaso descenso de la inflación y una apreciación del tipo de cambio nominal sin persistencia. En Chile y Perú, solo son significativos los impactos sobre el nivel de producción, aunque estos van en sentidos opuestos en cada economía.
    Keywords: SVAR, VARX, Política monetaria, Estados Unidos, Economías Emergentes.
    JEL: E43 E52 F41 C32 F62
    Date: 2016–06–03
  3. By: Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuña; Paola Andrea Vaca González
    Abstract: Este artículo presenta los resultados de una investigación acerca de los posibles determinantes del desempleo en Colombia en el siglo XXI, mediante un modelo VAR-X cointegrado. El análisis de cointegración evidencia estadísticamente una relación de largo plazo entre las variables términos de intercambio, ventas reales, productividad laboral, empleo, salarios reales y desempleo. Al estimar el modelo y desarrollar el análisis de impulso respuesta, se concluye que las ventas reales son un factor importante para el desempleo en el corto plazo, como la productividad lo es en gran medida para el mediano y largo plazo. Este análisis se confirma con los resultados arrojados por la descomposición de varianza.
    Keywords: Desempleo, Colombia, VAR-X cointegrado, análisis de impulso respuesta, descomposición de varianza.
    JEL: C32 E24
    Date: 2014–12–12
  4. By: Ignacio Lozano-Espitia (Banco de la República de Colombia); Lina Ma. Ramírez-Villegas (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the role of rural infrastructure on the performance of some agricultural crops in Colombia. The study utilizes geo-referenced cross sectional data of four crops, coffee, rice, beans and plantains, collected for the majority of municipalities. Using genetic matching models, we find that both having access to irrigation and drainage systems and better infrastructure for marketing –rural roads and nearby retail and wholesale centers– significantly increase crop yield as well as planted and harvested areas. Results are robust to a suitable set of matching algorithms. The positive and significant impact on agricultural development provides support to reorient agricultural policy towards the supply of public goods that pushes up productivity. Classification JEL: H41, Q12, Q15, R42, C21
    Keywords: Public Goods, Agricultural Productivity, Irrigation System, Road Maintenance, Treatment Effect Models
    Date: 2016–06
  5. By: Amaral, Ernesto F. L.; Almeida, Mariana Eugenio; Goncalves, Guilherme Quaresma
    Abstract: We analyze the 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000, and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses, in order to investigate the associated factors with a woman having had a live birth during the year prior to each census. We estimated logistic regression models for women aged 10-49 years. As independent variables, we selected region of residence, rural/urban location, presence of electricity, color/race, religion, marital status, labor market participation, time of residence in the municipality, information about whether they had a stillbirth, age, education, and parity. Our findings confirm that the probability a woman had a child is higher in the North and Northeast regions, as well as in households without electricity. Women that have a greater chance of having had a child are black/brown, Catholic, married, non-labor market participants, short-term migrants, experienced a stillbirth, between 20-29 years of age, have less education, and have higher parity. Patterns have been changing throughout time, thus posing questions for further analyses.
    Keywords: fertility decline, family planning program, Brazil
    Date: 2015–02
  6. By: Danny García Callejas
    Abstract: This study found that doubling the level of democracy in Latin America reduces CO2 emissions per capita by up to 6%. This relationship is estimated by using a fixed effects panel system of equations for 19 Latin American countries, between 1995 and 2008. Democracy acts as a conduit for increasing demands on environmental quality in Latin America, due to urban population growth and economic prosperity. Nevertheless, this study has, at least, two caveats: first it cannot unveil the long run relationship between democracy and environmental quality in the region; and, secondly, this study assumes that democracy entails positive outcomes for countries adopting this political system.
    Keywords: Democracy, Environmental Quality, CO2 Emissions per Capita, Latin America, Panel System of Equations.
    JEL: C33 N46 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2015–12–04

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