nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2016‒07‒02
six papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
Universidad de la República

  1. Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America: the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles By Enrique Alberola-Ila; Rocío Gondo; Marco Jacopo Lombardi; Diego Urbina
  2. Efecto y distorsiones de los impuestos en los incentivos a la inversión y en los precios: Comparación Argentina - Estados Unidos By José P. Dapena; Gabriel Sosa
  3. Modeling the Opportunity Costs of Reducing Legal Deforestation and the Implications for Forest Policy in Mato Grosso, Brazil By Cai, Ruohong; Lubowski, Ruben; Reis, Tiago; Stabile, Marcelo; Azevedo, Andrea
  4. The impact of abortion legalisation on birth outcomes in Uruguay By José-Ignacio Antón; Zuleika Ferre; Patricia Triunfo
  5. Gestión y valoración de riesgos climáticos a escala de cuenca: propuestas desde la cuenca del río Vergara, Chile By Ponce Oliva, Roberto; Vásquez Lavín, Felipe; Alonso Orrego, Sergio
  6. Variance Decomposition of Prices in an Emerging Economy By Fernando Borraz; Joaquín Saldain

  1. By: Enrique Alberola-Ila; Rocío Gondo; Marco Jacopo Lombardi; Diego Urbina
    Abstract: We provide a measure of the output gap that filters out the impact of the commodity and net capital inflows booms for Latin American countries. These two factors temporarily boost output and so are likely to push up estimates of potential growth in the region to unrealistic levels, thereby resulting in an underestimation of the output gaps during the upswing of the commodity cycle. We also shed light on the interaction between the two components. The results show that commodity prices has been the dominant factor explaining deviation of activity from sustainable levels. The timely consideration of these factors could prevent a procyclical fiscal policy bias in the region.
    Keywords: output gap, commodity prices, capital flows, procyclicality, fiscal policy, Latin America
    Date: 2016–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:568&r=lam
  2. By: José P. Dapena; Gabriel Sosa
    Abstract: El crecimiento económico y la generación de empleo requieren de empresarios que inmovilicen recursos en la forma de capital en las empresas. Estos vehículos jurídicos se establecen para explotar oportunidades de negocios, y los accionistas que comprometen su capital esperan obtener por el mismo una rentabilidad que les compense por el riesgo que están asumiendo en comparación con alternativas existentes y disponibles de inversión. La realidad de la economía argentina durante las dos últimas décadas y en períodos más recientes muestra que en general un accionista de empresas locales con cotización pública no ha obtenido una renta por encima de un accionista similar que invierte en empresas con cotización pública en Estados Unidos, a pesar de estar en un entorno donde asume un mayor riesgo. Esta realidad en lugar de incentivar la inversión la desestimula. Entre los aspectos que generan efectos como los mencionados podemos encontrar el sistema impositivo argentino. En el presente trabajo nos enfocamos en el efecto que tiene sobre los precios y sobre la rentabilidad hacia el accionista de potenciales distorsiones económicas y financieras generadas por el sistema impositivo, y el efecto sobre lo que se lleva el Estado de las empresas y lo que se llevan los accionistas. Puntualmente nos referimos al efecto de los impuestos sobre la rentabilidad del capital (en lo que se refiere a alícuotas de ingresos brutos, impuesto al valor agregado, seguridad social y ganancias), y al efecto de la superposición de impuesto al valor agregado e ingresos brutos, que termina generando un equivalente de impuesto al valor agregado con una alícuota superior a la vigente por ley. Entre las posibles soluciones que se pueden explorar, se sugiere la posibilidad del cómputo de cargas sociales, en particular las contribuciones de la seguridad social, como crédito fiscal de impuesto al valor agregado, la eliminación del impuesto a los ingresos brutos, la reducción de IVA y la introducción de un esquema progresivo de alícuotas de impuesto a las ganancias con la posibilidad de ajuste por inflación. Esquemas impositivos más eficientes permiten niveles de precios más bajos y más competitivos, mayores rendimientos al capital y menores distorsiones, y por ende estimulan la inversión, el crecimiento económico y la generación de empleo.
    Keywords: Impuestos, ingresos brutos, distorsiones, rendimiento del capital, empleo, nivel de precios.
    JEL: N2 O1 G00
    Date: 2016–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:588&r=lam
  3. By: Cai, Ruohong; Lubowski, Ruben; Reis, Tiago; Stabile, Marcelo; Azevedo, Andrea
    Abstract: In recent decades, global society has paid growing attention to tropical deforestation as it contributes significantly to global warming. One promising way of addressing the issue is to create economic incentives to protect forests. In this study, we estimate the opportunity costs of reducing legal deforestation in Mato Grosso of Brazil, based on an econometric model using fine resolution spatial data and administrative data on properties registered in the rural land registry. We find that, inside the properties that have rights to legally clear forest area, most projected demand for deforestation will fit within the legal limitations, making it essential to establish additional positive economic incentives for forest protection. Also in these properties, for the period of 2014-2030, total incentives of about US$ 279 million could reduce 77% of projected legal deforestation, from 278,257 ha to 64,287 ha. Certain incentives could come from the properties with forest restoration requirements under Brazil’s forest code, since we found that our modeled incentives can only cover about 7% of the forest restoration requirement in those properties through passive land abandonment. As a result, active reforestation or purchasing the Environmental Reserve Quota from properties with legal deforestation allowance may become attractive alternatives.
    Keywords: Tropical deforestation, Forest policy, Opportunity cost, Brazil, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236637&r=lam
  4. By: José-Ignacio Antón; Zuleika Ferre; Patricia Triunfo
    Abstract: This work evaluates the impact of an abortion reform in Uruguay allowing free interruption of pregnancy until 12 weeks of gestation on the quantity and quality of births in the short run. We employ a differences-in-differences approach, a comprehensive administrative register of births and a novel identification strategy based on the planned or unplanned nature of pregnancies that end in births. Our results suggest that this policy induced an 8% decline in the number of births of unplanned pregnancies, driven by the group of mothers between 20 and 34 years old with secondary education. This increased the average quality of births in terms of more intensive prenatal control care and a lower probability of having a single mother. Furthermore, we document a positive selection process of births affected by the reform, as adequate prenatal control care and Apgar scores rose among the affected
    Keywords: abortion, Uruguay, fertility, difference-in-differences
    JEL: I12 I18 J13 J18
    Date: 2016–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2016_06&r=lam
  5. By: Ponce Oliva, Roberto; Vásquez Lavín, Felipe; Alonso Orrego, Sergio
    Keywords: CAMBIO CLIMATICO, RECURSOS HIDRICOS, CUENCAS FLUVIALES, ESTUDIOS DE CASOS, CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER RESOURCES, RIVER BASINS, CASE STUDIES
    Date: 2015
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col043:40195&r=lam
  6. By: Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay); Joaquín Saldain (Banco Central del Uruguay)
    Abstract: We use a one million good-level dataset of prices in Uruguay which comprises grocery stores in the capital city of Montevideo to decompose the variance of prices to identify the sources of such variability. We estimate the specific contribution of the product, chain and individual store to the variability of prices. Estimates are carried out with the data in different periods, with time trend inflation and excluding nonhomogeneous goods to estimate robust results. We use the three error model to decompose the price variation to find that chain specific shocks account for half of it. The importance of shocks to individual products and product categories common to all stores is the other half. Our results indicate that the importance of chains in price variation in Uruguay is halfway between that of US and Chile. Therefore, in an emerging economy the price strategies of retailers are not so much different than in the US to explain price variation than previously thought.
    Keywords: precios, descomposición de varianza, estrategias de firmas, Uruguay
    JEL: E31 E52 L10
    Date: 2015
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bku:doctra:2015001&r=lam

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