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on Central and South America |
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Issue of 2016‒02‒04
five papers chosen by |
| By: | Pérez, Fernando (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses and compares the effects of monetary policy shocks across Latin American countries that put in practice the Inflation Targeting scheme (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). An estimated Hierarchical Panel VAR allows us to use the data efficiently and, at the same time, exploit the heterogeneity across countries. Monetary shocks are identified through an agnostic procedure that imposes zero and sign restrictions. We find a real short run effect of monetary policy on output (with a peak around 12-15 months); a significant medium run response of prices with the absence of the so-called price puzzle and a hump-shaped response of the exchange rate, i.e. weak evidence of the so-called delayed overshooting puzzle phenomenon. Nevertheless, we find some degree of heterogeneity on the impact and propagation of monetary shocks across countries. In particular, we find stronger effects on output and prices in Brazil and Peru relative to Chile, Colombia and Mexico and a stronger reaction of the exchange rate in Brazil, Chile and Colombia relative to Mexico and Peru. Finally, we present a weighted-averaged impulse response after a monetary shock, which is representative for the region. *Note: Winning article in the 2015 Rodrigo Gómez Central Bank Award, organized by the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA). The article will be published by this institution. |
| Keywords: | Panel Vector Autoregressions, Sign Restrictions, Bayesian Hierarchical models |
| JEL: | E43 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2015-015&r=lam |
| By: | De Hoyos Navarro,Rafael E.; Popova,Anna; Rogers,F. Halsey |
| Abstract: | Using all the household survey data available in Latin America during the period 1992 to 2013, this paper estimates that in 2015, 20 million youth ages 15 to 24 years in the region were out of school and not working (making them ninis, for"ni estudian ni trabajan"). The share of out-of?school, out-of-work youth in Latin America, at about 19 percent, is roughly equal to the global average of 22 percent. Although women make up over two-thirds of the ninis in the region, the number of male ninis grew by 46 percent between 1992 and 2010. As a result, the absolute number of ninis rose over the two-decade period, even as women's education and employment rates were improving. Global comparisons show that Latin America is the region of the world with the largest concentration of ninis among households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. Coupled with the long-lasting harm it causes to the youth's future labor-market outcomes, the high incidence of ninis among the poorest households tends to lock in income disparities from one generation to the next, obstructing social mobility and poverty reduction in the region. |
| Keywords: | Youth and Government,Adolescent Health,Population Policies,Housing&Human Habitats,Primary Education |
| Date: | 2016–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7548&r=lam |
| By: | Apella,Ignacio Raul; Blanco, Gastón |
| Abstract: | As part of the 2006-2011 National Development Plan, the Plurinational State of Bolivia launched two cash transfer programs and one youth labor training program aimed at promoting the accumulation of households? human capital: the Juancito Pinto Educational Grant, the Juana Azurduy Mother-Child Grant, and my first decent job. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of the targeting mechanisms utilized in these programs. Based on the information provided by the Ongoing Household Survey, we estimate the mechanisms? potential inclusion and exclusion errors. The results permit us to suggest that the categorical selection mechanisms used in the three programs are effective in reaching the poorest population, although they present distinct levels of inclusion and exclusion errors associated with both the design and implementation problems of the particular mechanism utilized. |
| Keywords: | Safety Nets and Transfers,Population Policies,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Services&Transfers to Poor,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2015–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:100363&r=lam |
| By: | Ronald Miranda (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Gabriela Mordecki (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | Raw materials exports depend on global demand and prices, but the increasing volatility of real exchange rates (RER) introduces an additional factor which impact varies according to the situation and the country. Thus, this paper studies the RER volatility dynamics, estimated through GARCH and IGARCH models for Brazil, Chile, New Zealand and Uruguay during the period 1990-2013. Then, for each country, we study the potential impact of exchange rate volatility on total exports using Johansen's methodology and the analysis through impulse response functions, including proxies for global demand and international prices. The results suggest that exports depend positively on global demand and international prices; however conditional RER volatility resulted not significant for the group of selected countries, with the exception of Uruguay, where RER volatility affects negatively exports, in the short and long term. |
| Keywords: | Exports, real exchange rate, GARCH, cointegration |
| JEL: | F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-18-15&r=lam |
| By: | Micaela Araujo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Departamento de Economía); Pablo Castro (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | Consideration of history and territory as dimensions of economic development of countries and regions is a trait that is increasingly present in the analysis of long-term economic performance. The main objective of this paper is to estimate Uruguayan agricultural gross value added (VAB by its Spanish abbreviation) by region in the long run. Estimates of the agricultural VAB by Department (19 administrative units) are presented, covering a century of Uruguayan history, and the main stylized facts that account for the territorial location of agricultural and livestock production in the long run are described. The empirical strategy used in this paper is an indirect method that we call "Modified Geary-Stark". This method makes it possible to use indicators of physical productivity in different sector, item by item, assuming that price spreads between regions are marginal. Once long-run agricultural VAB are obtained, descriptive exercises allow us to find empirical regularities and sketch out some hypotheses about the evolution of the location of different agricultural activities in terms of productive structure and specialization. |
| Keywords: | regional economy, productive location, agriculture, Uruguay |
| JEL: | N5 N6 N9 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-19-15&r=lam |