nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2015‒12‒12
thirteen papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
Universidad de la República

  1. Structural change in four Latin American countries: An international perspective By Aravena, Claudio; Fernández de Guevara, Juan; Hofman, André A.; Mas, Matilde
  2. Evaluating policies to improve total factor productivity in four large Latin American countries By Aravena, Claudio; Hofman, André A.; Fernández de Guevara, Juan; Mas, Matilde
  3. The Mystery of Saving in Latin America By Ilan Noy; Eduardo A. Cavallo; Oscar Becerra
  4. Hacia la armonización de las estimaciones de mortalidad materna en América Latina: actualización y ampliación a los 20 países de la región By Ruiz Salguero, Magda Teresa; Miller, Tim; Márquez, Lina; Villarroel, María Cecilia
  5. Latin America and the middle-income trap By Paus, Eva
  6. A regional reserve fund for Latin America By Titelman Kardonsky, Daniel; Vera, Cecilia; Carvallo, Pablo; Pérez Caldentey, Esteban
  7. El impacto distributivo del salario mínimo en la Argentina, el Brasil, Chile y el Uruguay By Maurizio, Roxana
  8. Productivity and the Performance of Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean: From the Lost Decade to the Commodity Boom By Pedro Martel; Carlos E. Ludeña; Alejandro Nin Pratt; César Falconi
  9. Crecimiento económico y productividad en América Latina: Una perspectiva por industria, según la base de datos LA-KLEMS By Aravena, Claudio; Hofman, André A.
  10. Human Capital Persistence and Development By Rudi Rocha; Claudio Ferraz; Rodrigo R. Soares
  11. La construcción de pactos y consensos en materia de política social: El caso de la reforma previsional en Chile 2005-2008 By Maldonado Valera, Carlos; Palma, Andrea
  12. Pactos sociales para una protección social más inclusiva: Experiencias, obstáculos y posibilidades en América Latina y Europa By Hopenhayn, Martín; Maldonado Valera, Carlos; Martínez, Rodrigo; Rico, María Nieves; Sojo, Ana
  13. Delivering Parenting Interventions through Health Services in the Caribbean By Susan P. Walker; Christine Powell; Susan M. Chang; Helen Baker-Henningham; Sally Grantham-McGregor; Marcos Vera-Hernández; Florencia López Bóo

  1. By: Aravena, Claudio; Fernández de Guevara, Juan; Hofman, André A.; Mas, Matilde (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: This paper compares structural change in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) and seven additional countries which are taken as a reference: 5 European countries (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain), United States and Japan. It considers nine industries and covers the period 1995-2007. The information comes from EU KLEMS and LA KLEMS databases. It starts presenting, in section 2, the growth accounting results, decomposing labor productivity growth in the contribution of four sources of growth (Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) capital and non-ICT capital; labor qualification; and Total Factor Productivity (TFP)). Section 3 shows a set of descriptive statistics in order to help understand what happens inside each country as well as its implication for the shift-share analysis which is presented in section 4. The shift-share methodology is applied to each individual variable: (i) Labor productivity; (ii) Capital per worker —distinguishing between ICT and non-ICT capital—; and (iii) Total Factor Productivity. This section also analyses the sensitivity of the shift-share results to the level of industry disaggregation, taking Mexico and the reference countries as illustration.
    Date: 2014–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col037:36851&r=lam
  2. By: Aravena, Claudio; Hofman, André A.; Fernández de Guevara, Juan; Mas, Matilde (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: This paper develops a framework to analyze the potential of different variables to increase total factor productivity (TFP) growth in countries with poor productivity performance. It takes an industry level approach for a set of countries used as a benchmark. The information comes from the EU KLEMS and LA KLEMS databases. Once this influence is measured, the difference in the scores of each variable in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) with respect to the benchmark is used to test their potential for increasing productivity growth. Results show that, the top priorities for these four countries are to improve the labour market, to reduce the share of self-employed people and to modernize the functioning of their economic systems. Our results also indicate that the intensification of investment in ICT and R&D activities is a key instrument for promoting growth. Public policies should also aim to encourage a higher endowment of Internet infrastructures and their use.
    Date: 2014–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col037:36839&r=lam
  3. By: Ilan Noy; Eduardo A. Cavallo; Oscar Becerra
    Abstract: Using reduced-form regression models, this paper shows that average predicted private saving rates in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significantly lower than in other regions, particularly Emerging Asia (about 4 percentage points of GDP on average). Predicted public saving rates in LAC are also lower than in Emerging Asia, but by a smaller margin (1 percentage point of GDP on average). It is further shown that LAC private saving rates are below the region-specific prediction by approximately 1. 5 percentage points of GDP on average. Finally, it is found that a greater reliance on external savings does not fully close the negative estimated private saving gap, reducing it by less than 1 percentage point. No gap is found in the case of public saving rates, suggesting that the lower predicted public saving rate in LAC is accounted for by the known determinants of fiscal policy.
    Keywords: Savings, Development Banks, Economic Development & Growth, Saving rates, Saving gap, Determinants of saving, Private saving, Public saving *, IDB-WP-615
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:91856&r=lam
  4. By: Ruiz Salguero, Magda Teresa; Miller, Tim; Márquez, Lina; Villarroel, María Cecilia (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: La mortalidad materna es un tema que ha ganado mayor protagonismo en el último tiempo y ha dado lugar a una mayor demanda de información respecto de su tendencia y nivel. Sin embargo, no se cuenta con documentación suficiente para determinar el grado de confiabilidad de las cifras oficiales, tanto por la dificultad de la captación de las muertes maternas como por el carácter incompleto de los sistemas de estadísticas vitales en los países de América Latina. En este trabajo se compilan los resultados de un estudio piloto realizado en 2013, que documentó la situación de ocho países (el Brasil, Chile, Costa Rica, Cuba, El Salvador, México, la República Dominicana y el Uruguay) junto con la recopilación de las metodologías para la estimación de la mortalidad materna de los restantes 12 países de la región: la Argentina, Bolivia (Estado Plurinacional de), Colombia, el Ecuador, Guatemala, Haití, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panamá, el Paraguay, el Perú y Venezuela (República Bolivariana de). Se analiza la labor de los 20 países de América Latina para producir cifras que permitan cuantificar y caracterizar la mortalidad materna en cada uno de ellos. Asimismo, se avanza en la documentación de las metodologías de medición con el fin de lograr un entendimiento más profundo de las cifras y de los factores que las distancian de las construidas por parte del Grupo Interagencial para la Estimación de la Mortalidad Materna .
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col045:39297&r=lam
  5. By: Paus, Eva (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: Promising economic growth during the 2000s obfuscates the reality that Latin American countries are facing the acute threat of a middle-income trap. In a review of the literature on the middle-income trap I distinguish two approaches to the middle-income trap: one focuses mainly on the lack of structural change, the driving forces behind it, and the national and global context in which it unfolds; the other stresses growth slowdowns irrespective of time and place. I offer an extension of the structural change approach with an emphasis on the implications of the current globalization process. A productive capabilities-focused analysis reveals serious gaps in social and firm-level capabilities in Latin America economies, though the magnitude differs across indicators and countries. The experiences of China and small latecomers trying to move from the middle to the high-income level (Chile, the Dominican Republic, Jordan, Ireland, and Singapore) suggest that a cohesive productive capabilities-focused development strategy holds out great promise for generating growth-enhancing structural change. I conclude with a discussion of the key challenges Latin American countries have to overcome for the successful implementation of such a strategy to avoid the middle-income trap.
    Date: 2014–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col035:36816&r=lam
  6. By: Titelman Kardonsky, Daniel; Vera, Cecilia; Carvallo, Pablo; Pérez Caldentey, Esteban (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: Strengthening the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR) by expanding its size and scope in order to encompass a larger number of countries of the region would significantly contribute to financial stability as a regional and global public good. This paper seeks to cast light on the viability, implications and challenges of expanding FLAR to another five countries in the region: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Paraguay. In our view, regional reserve funds are one of the mechanisms that contribute to a denser international financial architecture and help enhance its capacity to provide financial stability. Greater densification means not only that there is a wider range of tools, but also that there is greater interconnectivity between the institutions that make up the international financial architecture.
    Date: 2014–02–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col035:35868&r=lam
  7. By: Maurizio, Roxana (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: A lo largo de la última década se observa una recuperación del valor real del salario mínimo en América Latina. Este estudio analiza, de manera comparativa, los impactos distributivos del fortalecimiento de esta institución en cuatro países de la región, Argentina, Brasil, Chile y Uruguay. A partir de técnicas semi-paramétricas se comprueba que, con excepción de Chile, en los tres países restantes dichos cambios han sido igualadores, explicando una porción significativa de la caída de la desigualdad. A su vez, esta reducción ha estado originada en la compresión en la parte inferior de la distribución salarial.
    Date: 2014–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col041:37208&r=lam
  8. By: Pedro Martel; Carlos E. Ludeña; Alejandro Nin Pratt; César Falconi
    Abstract: This study analyzes the performance of Latin America and the Caribbean's agriculture between 1980 and 2012 looking at the contribution of inputs, and total factor productivity (TFP) to growth in output per worker. A growth accounting approach that goes along the lines of neoclassical growth accounting combined with Data Envelopment Analysis, allows us to measure TFP growth using output and input indices and also to decompose this growth into contributions of technical change and changes in technical efficiency. Our findings show that between 1980 and 2012, regional agricultural output per worker and TFP increased 82 and 45 percent, respectively, reducing the difference between TFP in LAC and in OECD countries. This improved performance of agriculture was the result of fast growth in the use of fertilizer, increases in land productivity, and growth in the use of capital that expanded cultivated area per worker. Higher productivity of the animal stock, fast growth in the use of feed and in the number of animals per worker, have increased the share of livestock in total output and also contributed significantly to the improved performance of agriculture. Observed growth patterns at the country level suggest that countries that increased input per worker have increased TFP at a higher rate than countries with limited access to capital and land. As a result of these growth patterns, the improved performance in the region has amplified differences in labor productivity between countries. Growing differences in labor productivity and the fact that the favorable shock in commodity prices that benefited LAC's agriculture in recent years has apparently ran its course, raise concerns for the future.
    Keywords: Economic Development & Growth, Productivity, Agricultural productivity, Agricultural Policy, Caribbean, Latin America, Agriculture
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:91817&r=lam
  9. By: Aravena, Claudio; Hofman, André A. (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: El propósito de este artículo es de analizar el crecimiento económico, la productividad y sus determinantes en cinco países principales de América Latina (Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia y México) en el período 1990-2010. Este análisis se aplica para el agregado de la economía como también para nueve sectores económicos. Se utiliza una nueva base de datos que servirá como una herramienta fundamental para la investigación empírica y teórica en el área del crecimiento económico y productividad para América Latina; la base de datos LA-KLEMS. En esta base las variables se organizan en torno a la contabilidad del crecimiento, metodología que proporciona un marco conceptual claro que permite analizar de una manera coherente la interacción entre las variables. Las cifras de productividad que entrega KLEMS permiten observar con claridad las discrepancias entre países y dar una nueva perspectiva para entender la evolución de las series en el tiempo. Esta estructura coherente permite, por ejemplo, observar hasta que punto América Latina está o no en un proceso de ‘catching-up’ con Europa y EE.UU., y en qué industrias se dan los avances o los retrocesos. Los resultados de este análisis indican que los países de América Latina tienen que mejorar la eficiencia de sus procesos de producción a través de medidas que van más allá de la acumulación de capital tangible. Ellos tienen que tomar medidas para llevar a cabo mejoras en las industrias. Estas medidas incluyen la mejora del funcionamiento de los mercados de trabajo, el aumento de la I + D, la mejora del capital humano, tanto en la escuela, pero especialmente en el lugar de trabajo, y la mayoría de los activos intangibles que ayudan a obtener resultados más eficientes de la misma cantidad de capital y trabajo.
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col037:36949&r=lam
  10. By: Rudi Rocha; Claudio Ferraz; Rodrigo R. Soares
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of human capital persistence in explaining long-term development. We exploit variation induced by a state-sponsored settlement policy that attracted a pool of immigrants with higher levels of schooling to particular regions of Brazil in the late 19th and early 20th century. We show that municipalities that received settlements experienced increases in schooling that persisted over time. One century after the policy, localities that received state-sponsored settlements had higher levels of schooling and income per capita. We provide evidence that long-run effects were driven by persistently higher supply and use of educational inputs and shifts in the structure of occupations towards skill-intensive sectors.
    Date: 2015
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:clabwp:22&r=lam
  11. By: Maldonado Valera, Carlos; Palma, Andrea (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Date: 2014–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col043:37246&r=lam
  12. By: Hopenhayn, Martín; Maldonado Valera, Carlos; Martínez, Rodrigo; Rico, María Nieves; Sojo, Ana (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: La dificultad para alcanzar acuerdos en el ámbito de la política social en general, y de la protección social en particular, ha obstaculizado en muchos casos que la acción política se proyecte en forma coherente y con recursos suficientes, por encima de los intereses inmediatos de los actores políticos y de los intereses privados. Durante décadas la política pública privilegió el logro de equilibrios macroeconómicos, aun a costa de la pobreza y la desigualdad. Pero hoy existe un convencimiento político más amplio sobre la necesidad de ensanchar el espacio fiscal en miras a alcanzar una mayor cohesión social. Los temas que se abordan en el presente volumen se centran precisamente en esta reflexión, sobre los marcos analíticos para el estudio de los procesos de acuerdo y pacto y el intercambio de experiencias entre América Latina y Europa.Se trata de conocer mejor las experiencias exitosas que han tenido lugar en otras latitudes, aprender de sus errores y de sus aciertos e imaginar mecanismos para hacerlas realidad en nuestra región. Lo anterior, sin embargo, teniendo en cuenta nuestra propia historia y por supuesto nuestro todavía limitado, pero importante y creciente acervo de experiencias en acuerdos y pactos que hemos paulatinamente acumulado en las últimas décadas. Con ese espíritu, la CEPAL acogió a los expertos que participaron en el seminario internacional que ahora se traduce en una publicación que recoge las presentaciones y discusiones planteadas, con la mirada y de la mano de sus propios autores.
    Date: 2014–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col043:36738&r=lam
  13. By: Susan P. Walker; Christine Powell; Susan M. Chang; Helen Baker-Henningham; Sally Grantham-McGregor; Marcos Vera-Hernández; Florencia López Bóo
    Abstract: Integrating early childhood interventions with health and nutrition services has been recommended, however there is limited information on interventions that are effective and feasible for delivery through health services. In this trial we developed and evaluated a parenting program that could be integrated into primary health center visits.
    Keywords: Child development, Wages, Development Banks, Evaluation, Labor markets, child development, parenting interventions, home visits, primary care health service, cost-benefit, Caribbean.
    Date: 2015–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:91816&r=lam

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