nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2015‒08‒19
nine papers chosen by

  1. Measuring Latin America’s export dependency on China By Carlos Casanova Allende; Le Xia; Romina Ferreira
  2. Institutional Investors and Firm Valuation: Evidence from Latin America By Pombo, Carlos; De la hoz, María Camila
  3. Spatial Interactions in Tropical Deforestation: An application to the Brazilian Amazon By Saraly ANDRADE DE SA; Philippe Delacote; Eric Nazindigouba KERE
  4. Brazil’s Response to Lower Commodity Prices By Cordonnier, Michael
  5. Soft Budgets and Renegotiations in Public-Private Partnerships:Theory and Evidence By Eduardo Engel; Ronald Fischer; Alexander Galetovic
  6. Determinants of Amazon Deforestation: The role of Off-Farm Income By Claudio Araujo; Jean-Louis Combes; José Gustavo Feres
  7. Long Term Impacts of Vouchers for Vocational Training: Experimental Evidence for Colombia By Orazio Attanasio; Arlen Guarín; Carlos Medina; Costas Meghir
  8. The Effects of Longer School Days on Mothers' Labor Force Participation By Berthelon, Matias; Kruger, Diana; Oyarzún, Melanie
  9. Financial Sector Accounts: The Chilean Experience in Their Use for Financial Stability Monitoring By Pablo García; Josué Pérez

  1. By: Carlos Casanova Allende; Le Xia; Romina Ferreira
    Abstract: In this paper we deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand.
    Keywords: Asia , Economic Analysis , Latin America , Research , Working Paper
    JEL: D51 F02 F14
    Date: 2015–08
  2. By: Pombo, Carlos (School of Management, Universidad de Los Andes); De la hoz, María Camila (School of Management, Universidad de Los Andes)
    Abstract: This article analyses how the corporate valuation of Latin American firms is affected by the presence of an institutional blockholder investor. The study uses a data set of 562 firms from six Latin American countries for the period 1997 to 2011. As in similar studies, we found that the presence of an institutional investor has a positive effect of 8% on firm value. After dividing the sample by investor type, we found that the presence of a grey investor (pension funds and insurance companies) has a negative effect on firm valuation, while independent investors (banks, investment and mutual funds) have a positive effect on firm valuation. This is one of the first studies to evaluate the relationship between investor activism and corporate valuation in Latin American economies with the most significant capital market development
    Keywords: Institutional investors, firm valuation, Latin America
    JEL: G23 G32 N16
    Date: 2015–05–01
  3. By: Saraly ANDRADE DE SA (ETH Zurich - ETH ZURICH); Philippe Delacote (INRA [INRA] - INRA(Institut national de la recherche agronomique - INRA)); Eric Nazindigouba KERE (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the mechanisms determining spatial interactions in deforestation, and its transmission channels, using data from Brazil. Our preliminary results confirm the hypothesis that deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is characterized by complementarity, meaning that deforestation in a particular municipality tends to increase deforestation in its neighbors. We further show that cattle density, tend to be the most important factors determining the nature of spatial interactions between neighboring areas.
    Date: 2015–03–25
  4. By: Cordonnier, Michael
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–02–20
  5. By: Eduardo Engel; Ronald Fischer; Alexander Galetovic
    Abstract: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are an increasingly popular organizational form of providing public infrastructure. They can increase efficiency and improve resource allocation, yet pervasive contract renegotiations cast doubts on whether they should be preferred over public provision. Renegotiating a PPP contract allows the present government to extract resources from future governments in exchange for current infrastructure spending by the PPP. This option is not available under public provision. We develop a model that formalizes this idea and predicts that government will use renegotiations to anticipate spending and shift payments to future administrations. Regulating renegotiation procedures so as to avoid opportunistic behavior does not avoid the use of renegotiations to anticipate government spending, changing fiscal accounting rules does. We analyze data from Chile, Colombia and Peru, comprising 59 highway PPPs and 535 renegotiation processes, to conclude that the evidence is broadly consistent with the predictions of our model. We find that the magnitude of renegotiations is substantial: renegotiations per concession year average 9.5% of the initial investment in Colombia, 3.6% in Peru and 1.3% in Chile. With concessions that last many decades, this suggests that the magnitude of renegotiations will end up being larger than the initial investment for many concessions, as is already the case for 11 out of the 25 concessions in Colombia. Most of the cost of renegotiations falls on future administrations and in the three countries more than 45% of renegotiations, as measured by volume, occur during the construction phase, which can be interpreted as evidence against incomplete contract models of renegotiations and in favor of our model.
    Date: 2015–07
  6. By: Claudio Araujo (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Jean-Louis Combes (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); José Gustavo Feres (IPEA - Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - Brésil)
    Abstract: This paper aims at assessing the determinants of Amazon deforestation, with an emphasis on the role played by off-farm income. We first present a microeconomic model which relates off-farm income to deforestation patterns. We then test the empirical implications by using data on the 2006 Brazilian Agricultural Census. Our results suggest that an increase in off-farm income tends to reduce deforestation. This may be explained by the fact that greater off-farm opportunities tends to increase the opportunity cost of farm labor. Results also show that smallholders are less responsive to the increase in the returns of off-farm activities than large ones, which is in line with our hypothesis of labor market imperfections regarding off-farm activities.
    Date: 2014–11–19
  7. By: Orazio Attanasio; Arlen Guarín; Carlos Medina; Costas Meghir
    Abstract: We use experimental data of a training program in 2005 in Colombia. We find that even up to ten years ahead, the JeA program had a positive and significant effect on the probability to work in the formal sector, and to work for a large firm. Applicants in the treatment group also contributed more months to social security during the analyzed period. Earnings of treated applicants were 11.8% higher in the whole sample, and they made larger contributions to social security. We also present non parametric bounds showing that for some percentiles of the sample of women, there are positive and nearly significant effects of the program. Thus, the effects of the program would have been capitalized both in increases in the likelihood of being formal, and increases in productivity. We also present evidence that the estimated program effects on the likelihood of working for the formal sector, the likelihood of working for a large firm, and the earnings in the formal sector, are not an artifact of analyzing multiple outcomes. We also find those in the treatment group have 0.315 more years of education, and have a probability of graduating from high school 10 percent higher than the control group. We find no significant effect on the probability of attending college or any school program, nor on fertility decisions, marital status or some dimensions of assortative mating. Among applicants matching to the census of the poorest population, we find that beneficiaries are more likely to participate in the labor market, to be employed, and to be enrolled in a private health insurance at the time of the survey. Finally, we find that the benefits of the JeA program are higher than it costs, leading to an internal rate of return of at least 22.1 percent.
    Keywords: Vocational Training, Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
    JEL: J24 M53
    Date: 2015–07–21
  8. By: Berthelon, Matias (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez); Kruger, Diana (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez); Oyarzún, Melanie (Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Chile)
    Abstract: Lack of adequate childcare is a main reason women cite for not participating in the labor force. We investigate the effect of a reform that lengthened school schedules from half to full days in Chile – essentially providing zero-cost childcare – on different maternal labor participation outcomes. We identify the effect of the policy from its implementation across municipalities over time and rule out alternative explanations, finding evidence of positive and important effects on participation and more permanent attachment to the labor force. Additionally, we also find results are driven by the provision of full day schooling in 1st and 2nd grades.
    Keywords: full day schooling, primary education, female labor participation, education reform, Chile
    JEL: H4 J2 J4 I2
    Date: 2015–07
  9. By: Pablo García; Josué Pérez
    Abstract: The Central Bank of Chile has been disseminating quarterly sectoral balance sheets and financial flows since 2008. These accounts are compiled for institutional units, based on their respective balance sheets and profit-and-loss statements. They integrate production, income and expenditure, accumulation, and financial accounts. The ending balances of the accounts, which are also the opening balances of the next accounts, are then reconciled. This document describes possible uses of the financial accounts for financial stability monitoring, particularly regarding the assessment of households leverage, public finances, loan to deposit ratios in financial corporation, and derivative exposure.
    Date: 2015–07

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