nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2015‒07‒11
six papers chosen by

  1. Inequality, Economic Growth and Structural Change: Theoretical Links and Evidence from Latin American Countries By Mario D. Tello
  2. The role of external shocks for monetary policy in Colombia and Brazil: A Bayesian SVAR analysis By Christian Rohe; Matthias Hartermann
  3. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico fall into turmoil. Quo vadis America? By Pierre Salama
  4. Determining the Feasibility of Establishing New Multiple Use Marine Protected Areas in Chile. By Felipe Vásquez; Jeanne Simon; Ximena Paz-Lerdon
  5. Using Stated Preference Methods to Design Cost-Effective Subsidy Programs to Induce Technology Adoption. An Application to a Stove Program in Southern Chile By Felipe Vásquez; Walter Gómez; Hugo Salgado; Carlos Chávez
  6. Experimental Evidence on the Long-Term Impacts of a Youth Training Program By Ibarrarán, Pablo; Kluve, Jochen; Ripani, Laura; Rosas Shady, David

  1. By: Mario D. Tello (Departamento de Economía de la PUC del Perú)
    Abstract: This paper summarizes the theoretical literature of the connections between inequality, economic growth and structural change and presents evidence of these connections for a sample of twelve Latin American countries in period 1980-2011. This suggests that the low degree of structural change has caused a statistical impact on inequality and economic growth in only four and one countries respectively. Consequently, this result rejects the conjecture that structural change has been growth reducing in Latin America. The absence of a statistical causal relationship from structural change to economic growth may be because sectoral labor reallocation does not take into account informal activities. On the other hand, coverage of the causal effects of growth and/or inequality on structural change has been greater than the respective effects of structural change on inequality and/or economic growth. Seven Latin American countries experienced those causal effects. JEL Classification-JEL: O54, O12
    Keywords: Structural change, inequality, economic growth
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Christian Rohe; Matthias Hartermann
    Abstract: This paper identifies the effects of US interest rate and commodity price shocks on the monetary policy of two in flation targeting emerging economies from Latin America, Colombia and Brazil. We estimate country-specic Bayesian SVARs with block exogeneity restrictions and account for the fact that central banks in both countries use two different instruments of monetary policy, a policy interest rate and foreign exchange market interventions. Our findings show that the Colombian and, to a lesser degree, the Brazilian central bank use sterilized interventions as a systematic component of their infl ation targeting regimes, which are more accurately described as "in flation-targeting-cum-intervention". Foreign exchange interventions are used in both countries to set domestic interest rates more independently from US monetary policy and, in Colombia, to increase interest rates in response to rising import prices without further deteriorating the terms of trade. Our results also indicate a lower susceptibility to shocks emanating from outside Colombia or Brazil under this policy regime than what studies for the pre-infl ation targeting period have found.
    Keywords: External Shocks, Inflation Targeting, Foreign Exchange Intervention, Bayesian SVAR, Block Exogeneity
    JEL: C32 E52 E58 F31 O54
    Date: 2015–06
  3. By: Pierre Salama (Séminaire BRICs - Fondation Maison des Sciences de l'Homme, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC) - CNRS)
    Abstract: From 2003 to 2012, a new period appears in Latin America. Growth is higher, the «basics» ( trade balance, budgetary balance, international reserves, unemployment, formal employment, inflation) more often better, social policies are more or less important depending on the country, poverty recedes and income inequality seems to decrease. The disappearance of the external constraint in the 2000s made less urgent to proceed with structural reforms. It pays now. From 2012, the difficulties appear in Argentina, the Brazil and, to a lesser extent, to the Mexico. The economic miracle becomes mirage, the new eldorado is not. With the brutal reversal of the price of raw materials, new vulnerabilities appear today and result in the prompt return of the external constraint to which the Governments of these countries thought escaped with rising prices and traded volumes. However, globalization is not guilty. This is the way, at least passive, to fit into the international division of labour which is.
    Abstract: De 2003 à 2012, une période nouvelle apparait en Amérique latine. La croissance est plus élevée, les « fondamentaux » (soldes de la balance commerciale et du budget, réserves internationales, chômage, emplois formels, inflation) s’améliorent le plus souvent, les politiques sociales sont plus ou moins importantes selon les pays, la pauvreté recule et les inégalités de revenus paraissent diminuer. La disparition de la contrainte externe dans les années 2000 a rendu moins urgent de procéder à des réformes structurelles. Elle se paie aujourd’hui. A partir de 2012, les difficultés apparaissent en Argentine, au Brésil et, dans une moindre mesure, au Mexique. Le miracle économique devient mirage, le nouvel eldorado en n’est pas un. Avec le retournement brutal du cours des matières premières, de nouvelles vulnérabilités apparaissent aujourd’hui au grand jour et se traduisent par le retour rapide de la contrainte externe à laquelle les gouvernements de ces pays pensaient avoir échappé avec la hausse des cours et des volumes échangés. Pour autant, la globalisation n’est pas coupable. C’est la manière, pour le moins passive, de s’insérer dans la division internationale du travail qui l’est.
    Date: 2015–04–15
  4. By: Felipe Vásquez; Jeanne Simon; Ximena Paz-Lerdon (School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the feasibility of establishing a Multiple Use Marine Protected Area. The methodology was applied to evaluate three proposed sites in Chile with diverse conservation needs, social stress and poverty levels, and different economic activities (small-scale fishing, heavy industry and mining activities). We use two broad categories for the evaluation: Socio-economic and political-institutional. The methodology uses a combination of secondary data with personal interviews, workshops and focus groups with fishermen, unions, politicians, social organizations, etc., from different political, social and economic background to characterize current and potential natural and social resources and to evaluate in an ordinal scale the feasibility of establishing the protected area.
    Keywords: Protected Coastal Marine Areas, feasibility, sustainable development, governance.
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Felipe Vásquez; Walter Gómez; Hugo Salgado; Carlos Chávez (School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo)
    Abstract: We study the design of an economic incentive based program –a subsidy- to induce adoption of more efficient technology in a pollution reduction program in southern Chile. Stated preferences methods, contingent valuation (CV), and choice experiment (CE) are used to estimate the probability of adoption and the willingness to share the cost of a new technology by a household.
    Keywords: Stated preferences, cost-effectiveness, environmental policy, urban pollution, households, contingent valuation, choice experiments.
    Date: 2013–08
  6. By: Ibarrarán, Pablo (Inter-American Development Bank); Kluve, Jochen (Humboldt University Berlin, RWI); Ripani, Laura (Inter-American Development Bank); Rosas Shady, David (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper presents the results of a randomized controlled trial on the long-term impacts of a youth training program. The empirical analysis estimates labor market impacts six years after the training – including long-term labor market trajectories of young people – and, to the best of our knowledge, is the first experimental long-term evaluation of a youth training program outside the US. We are able to track a representative sample of more than 3,200 youths at the six-year follow-up. Our empirical findings document significant impacts on the formality of employment, particularly for men, and impacts for both men and women in Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic. The long-term analysis shows that these impacts are sustained and growing over time. There are no impacts on average employment, which is consistent with the low unemployment in countries with high informality and no unemployment insurance. Looking at the local labor market context, the analysis suggests that skills training programs work particularly well in more dynamic local contexts, where there is actual demand for the skills provided.
    Keywords: long-term, impact evaluation, randomized controlled trial, Dominican Republic, youth training, labor market outcomes
    JEL: J24 J64 O15 O17
    Date: 2015–06

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