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on Central and South America |
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Issue of 2015‒02‒16
eleven papers chosen by |
| By: | Zapata S., Willy W.; Moreno Brid, Juan Carlos; Garry, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the current status of the international fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism, highlighting the importance of its prevention for economic and financial stability in Latin America and the Caribbean. It synthesizes the recent history of international legislation and agreements with respect to the issues, and presents the framework of public and private sector actors engaged in combating these threats. It reviews Latin American and Caribbean countries’ compliance with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) (40 + 9) Recommendations, and analyzes the region’s performance with respect to their third round Mutual Evaluation Reports. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col031:37391&r=lam |
| By: | Jeffrey G. Williamson |
| Abstract: | Most analysts of the modern Latin American economy have held the pessimistic belief in historical persistence -- they believe that Latin America has always had very high levels of inequality, and that it’s the Iberian colonists’ fault. Thus, modern analysts see today a more unequal Latin America compared with Asia and most rich post-industrial nations and assume that this must always have been true. Indeed, some have argued that high inequality appeared very early in the post-conquest Americas, and that this fact supported rent-seeking and anti-growth institutions which help explain the disappointing growth performance we observe there even today. The recent leveling of inequality in the region since the 1990s seems to have done little to erode that pessimism. It is important, therefore, to stress that this alleged persistence is based on an historical literature which has made little or no effort to be comparative, and it matters. Compared with the rest of the world, inequality was not high in the century following 1492, and it was not even high in the post-independence decades just prior Latin America’s belle époque and start with industrialization. It only became high during the commodity boom 1870-1913, by the end of which it had joined the rich country unequal club that included the US and the UK. Latin America only became relatively high between 1913 and the 1970s when it missed the Great Egalitarian Leveling which took place almost everywhere else. That Latin American inequality has its roots in its colonial past is a myth. |
| JEL: | D3 N16 N36 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20915&r=lam |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak; Donghyun Park |
| Abstract: | We use data from the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC) database to perform preliminary empirical analysis of the interplay between quality and quantity of finance in accounting for the output growth of ten sectors. We review the existing literature and some salient open questions pertaining to the relationship between financial depth and output growth. Our analysis looks at the finance-growth nexus in 41 economies, including 11 East Asian and 9 Latin American economies for a comparison between two regions which are at similar income levels. We document large differences between the two regions in terms of the impact of financial depth on sectoral growth, and validate the negative impact of financial deepening on output growth in several sectors. Our results suggest that the impact of financial development on growth may be non-linear – i.e. it may promote growth only up to a point. |
| JEL: | G20 G30 O40 O47 O57 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20917&r=lam |
| By: | María Laura Alzúa (CONICET-CEDLAS-UNLP); Guillermo Cruces (CONICET-CEDLAS-UNLP-IZA); Carolina Lopez (CONICET-CEDLAS-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | Youth training programs and their evaluations are ubiquitous, yet there is relatively little evidence on the mechanisms through which they operate and their effect on outcomes beyond the labor market. This is the motivation of our study of entra21 , a job training program for low income youth in Cordoba, Argentina. The program included life-skills and vocational training, as well as internships with private sector employers. Participants were allocated by means of a public lottery. We rely on detailed monthly administrative records for program participants, from which we construct a panel dataset including formal employment status, employment spells, earnings and welfare participation. These administrative records allow us to establish the effects of the program in the short term (18 months), but also – exceptionally for programs of this type in Latin America – in the medium term (36 months). The results indicate sizable gains of about 8 percentage points in formal employment in the short term (about 32% higher than the control group), although these effects tend to dissipate in the medium term. Contrary to what has been found for similar programs in the region, the effects of entra21 are substantially stronger for men, for whom the effects persist in the medium run. A dynamic analysis of employment transitions indicates that the program operates through an increase in the persistence of formal employment rather than from more frequent entries into employment. Program participants also exhibit earnings up to 50% higher than those in the control group, and an analysis of bounds indicates that these gains result from both higher employment levels and higher wages. The higher persistence and higher earnings suggest that the program was successful in increasing the human capital of participants rather than (or in addition to) providing contacts or formal intermediation. With respect to results beyond employment, women selected for the program exhibit lower levels of welfare dependency – younger participants (aged 18 to 24) are less likely to receive child-related public cash transfers over the whole period of analysis. Finally, we present original evidence on the relationship between formal employment and consumer credit use. Program participants exhibit a higher probability of having requested consumer credit, and a higher probability of holding bank debts in good standing. These results indicate that training and internship programs directed at disadvantaged youth can provide other indirect benefits that are not usually accounted for in existing evaluations. |
| JEL: | J08 J24 J68 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0177&r=lam |
| By: | Lina M. Cortés; John J. García; David Agudelo |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effectof changes in corporate controlon the way shareholdersbenefit from the announcements of selling and buying airlines, thus contributing to the literature on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in emerging markets. Using a methodologyof event study, including GARCH and OLS models, we find evidence that some selling companies obtain abnormal returns that are statisticallysignificant after the announcement of the M&A. However, when the merger is not strategic, the companies present statisticallysignificant negative abnormal returns. The resultsare not conclusive when analyzing the effecton the valueof the buying companies. |
| Keywords: | Mergers and acquisitions; Event study; Airlines; Latin America |
| JEL: | G14 G34 L21 |
| Date: | 2015–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:012453&r=lam |
| By: | Nicolás Badaracco (CEDLAS-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | En las ultimas décadas, los paises de America Latina experimentaron una reduccion en el numero de hijos promedio por hogar, lo cual no se dio en forma uniforme a lo largo de la distribucion del ingreso. Este trabajo busca cuantificar el impacto distributivo de los cambios en las decisiones de fecundidad en cinco paises de America Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, El Salvador y Uruguay. Utilizando encuestas de hogares, y mediante metodologias de microdes- composicion, se desarrollan escenarios contrafacticos de la distribucion del ingreso de forma de descomponer el efecto asociado de los cambios en las decisiones de fecundidad. Los resultados muestran que los cambios en las decisiones de fecundidad tuvieron un efecto igualador sobre la distribucion del ingreso, junto con un efecto reductor de la pobreza. |
| JEL: | C25 D31 I31 J13 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0173&r=lam |
| By: | Adolfo Meisel Roca; María Teresa Ramírez G.; Juliana Jaramillo E. |
| Abstract: | Durante la década de los años veinte, la economía colombiana experimentó la mayor tasa de crecimiento de su historia. Las reformas económicas efectuadas en 1923 (el banco central, el patrón oro, la legislación bancaria, la reorganización fiscal), el auge del café, y la afluencia sin precedentes de capital extranjero fueron las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de este éxito. En esa década, el país recibió 25 millones de dólares de los Estados Unidos por concepto de indemnización por su papel en la separación de Panamá de Colombia. Además, las reformas y el crecimiento de las exportaciones de café permitieron un enorme aumento de los préstamos extranjeros. El valor de los préstamos obtenidos hasta 1929 ascendió a 257 millones de dólares. Tales fondos se utilizaron principalmente para la construcción de infraestructura pública, en particular los ferrocarriles. Aproximadamente el 45% de los préstamos extranjeros durante ese período fueron invertidos en la construcción de ferrocarriles. Dieciséis de los 25 millones de dólares recibidos por concepto de reparación por Panamá también se invirtieron en ferrocarriles. En el presente estudio, se estima la tasa global de retorno y las tasas internas de retorno para cada uno de los ferrocarriles existente en esa época. Para estos cálculos, se tiene en cuenta que Colombia en realidad pagó sólo el 85% de los préstamos que obtuvo en la década de los años veinte, debido a los efectos de la Gran Depresión y la suspensión de pagos de la deuda externa. Las tasas de rendimiento de los ferrocarriles construidos y ampliados en la década de los años veinte fueron comparables a las obtenidas por los países europeos en el siglo XIX.******ABSTRACT: During the 1920s, the Colombian economy experienced the highest rate of growth in its history. The economic reforms of 1923 (the central bank, gold standard, banking legislation, fiscal reorganization), the coffee boom, and the unprecedented influx of foreign capital were the driving forces behind this success. During that decade, the country received 25 million dollars from the United States as compensation for its role in the separation of Panama from Colombia. Those reforms and the growth in coffee exports also allowed for an enormous increase in foreign loans. The value of the loans obtained by 1929 came to 257 million dollars. Those funds were used mainly to build much needed public infrastructure, particularly railroads. Approximately 45% of the foreign loans during that period were invested in railroad construction. Additionally, 16 of the 25 million dollars received as reparation for Panama were invested in railroads. In this paper, we estimate the global rate of return and the internal rates of return on individual railroads. For those calculations, we consider that Colombia ended up paying only around 85% of the loans obtained in the 1920s’s, owing to the effects of the Great Depression and the suspension of foreign debt payments . The rates of return on the railroads constructed and extended in the 1920´s are comparable to those obtained for European countries in the nineteenth century. |
| Keywords: | tasa de rentabilidad, inversión, ferrocarriles, deuda externa, Colombia |
| JEL: | N26 N76 O16 O1 |
| Date: | 2014–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000101:012504&r=lam |
| By: | Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez; Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra; María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se analiza la relación entre el estado de salud de los individuos y su participación laboral en Colombia, utilizando la primera etapa de la Encuesta Longitudinal Colombiana (ELCA). Para abordar la posible endogeneidad entre las dos variables, el análisis se lleva a cabo utilizando variables instrumentales y mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas. Los resultados muestran que existe una relación positiva entre salud y participación laboral en los dos sentidos, indicando que un buen estado de salud aumenta la probabilidad de participación en la fuerza laboral, y que aquellos que están en el mercado laboral tienen una mayor probabilidad de reportar un mejor estado de salud. Sin embargo, se encuentran algunas diferencias por género y edad. Los resultados sugieren que es esencial que las políticas públicas garanticen buenas condiciones de salud de la población, lo cual también podría tener un impacto positivo sobre la productividad laboral y en consecuencia sobre el crecimiento económico de largo plazo. |
| Keywords: | Estado de salud, participación laboral, endogenidad, Colombia |
| JEL: | C35 C36 I10 J21 |
| Date: | 2015–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:012497&r=lam |
| By: | Cecilia Parada (CEDLAS-UNLP-CONICET) |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se estudia el efecto del aumento del empleo femenino sobre la distribucion del ingreso en Uruguay entre 1991 y 2012, en particular se analizan los efectos sobre la desigualdad y la pobreza. Se aplica la metodologa de microdescomposicion propuesta por Bourguignon et al. (1998), la cual permite capturar en forma parcial el efecto del aumento de la tasa de empleo femenina. Esta metodologa permite distinguir el efecto generado por cambios en la condicion de empleo (estar o no empleado -efecto estado-) y el producido por modicaciones en las horas trabajadas -efecto hroas. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que, a pesar de no ocupar un lugar central cuando se busca explicar la evolucion de la distribucion del ingreso, el aumento del empleo femenino ha tenido efectos signicativos, no solo del punto de vista estadstico. En este sentido, los cambios en el empleo femenino contribuyeron en todo momento a reducir los niveles de pobreza y, si bien tuvo resultados modestos sobre la desconcentracion del ingreso al inicio del perodo, estos fueron mas acentuados hacia el nal del mismo. En ambos casos, el efecto horas fue mas importante al momento de explicar la cada de los indicadores de distribucion que el efecto estado. |
| JEL: | C15 C24 D31 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0174&r=lam |
| By: | Carvalho, Fernando; Feferman, Flavio; Knight, Peter; Woroch, Glenn |
| Abstract: | The Cinturão Digital do Ceará (CDC) is a pioneering infrastructure project that delivers broadband access to large cities, small towns and rural areas throughout the State of Ceará in northeast Brazil. The CDC was built and operated using a unique business model that innovates on the standard public-private partnership (PPP) - an increasingly popular means to undertake Information Communications Technology (ICT) deployments. We review the technical, legal and organizational features of the CDC project with a focus on how they were designed to cope with the unique economic and political conditions of the region. It is particularly instructive how the CDC business model evolved over time in response to political challenges and market failures. We highlight how the model can be adapted to other regions within Brazil, as well as to other developing countries, that seek to pursue dual goals of financial sustainability expansion of broadband access to underserved populations. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb14:106882&r=lam |
| By: | Hernando José Gómez; Roberto Steiner |
| Abstract: | El presente trabajo busca cuantificar el impacto de la reforma tributaria propuesta recientemente por el Gobierno colombiano, sobre la tasa efectiva de tributación por tamaño de empresa, con el uso de simulaciones. De igual forma se hace un cálculo sobre el costo de uso del capital para cuantificar el impacto de la reforma sobre la inversión agregada, y a través del Modelo de Equilibrio General de Fedesarrollo, sobre el crecimiento económico. Asimismo se recurre al uso de microdata para caracterizar a las empresas colombianas discriminando por tamaño de activos. A su vez, se hacen simulaciones de las tasas efectivas de tributación para los otros países miembros de la Alianza del Pacífico, donde sale a relucir que es Colombia el país con la tarifa efectiva más alta. |
| Keywords: | Tasa Efectiva de Tributación, Reforma Tributaria, Inversiones, Crecimiento Económico, Costo de Uso del Capital, Alianza del Pacífico, Equilibrio General, Tributación |
| JEL: | D24 D58 I28 |
| Date: | 2014–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:012502&r=lam |