nep-lam New Economics Papers
on Central and South America
Issue of 2015‒01‒19
twelve papers chosen by

  1. Addressing Access and Behavioral Constraints through Social Intermediation Services: A Review of Chile Solidario and Red Unidos By Camacho, Adriana; Cunningham, Wendy; Rigolini, Jamele; Silva, Veronica
  2. Agriculture, incomes, and gender in Latin America by 2050: An assessment of climate change impacts and household resilience for Brazil, Mexico, and Peru: By Andersen, Lykke E.; Breisinger, Clemens; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Jemio, Luis Carlos; Ringler, Claudia; Robertson, Richard D.; Verner, Dorte; Wiebelt, Manfred
  3. Virtual Integration of Financial Markets: A Dynamic Correlation Analysis of the Creation of the Latin American Integrated Market By Mellado, Cristhian; Escobari, Diego
  4. Attitudes Towards Partner Violence and Gender Roles in Uruguayan Women By Marisa Bucheli; Máximo Rossi
  5. Enriching the Home Environment of Low-Income Families in Colombia: A Strategy to Promote Child Development at Scale By Orazio Attanasio; Sally Grantham-McGregor; Camila Fernández; Emla Fitzsimons; Marta Rubio-Codina; Costas Meghir
  6. Impact and Implications of Recent and Potential Changes to Brazil's Subnational Fiscal Framework By World Bank
  7. Los resultados de las pruebas PISA en la Argentina. Una comparación intertemporal: 2000, 2006 y 2009 By Maribel Jiménez; Jorge A. Paz
  8. Discretion Rather than Simple Rules: the Case of Social Protection By Alvaro Forteza; Cecilia Noboa
  9. ¿Acceden al subsidio por desempleo los asalariados rurales en Uruguay? Análisis de la situación actual y simulación de esquemas alternativos By Andrés Dean; Estefanía Galván; Ivone Perazzo
  10. Are the World’s Poorest Being Left Behind? By Martin Ravallion
  11. Wage differentials: Trade Openness and Wage Bargaining By Gustavo Gonzaga; Beatriz Muriel; Cristina Terra
  12. Bono demográfico y envejecimiento en Uruguay By Cecilia González; Marisa Bucheli

  1. By: Camacho, Adriana (Universidad de los Andes); Cunningham, Wendy (World Bank); Rigolini, Jamele (World Bank); Silva, Veronica (World Bank)
    Abstract: Social programs are often designed under the assumption that individuals make rational decisions that improve their welfare. Yet, informational and behavioral constraints limit the extreme and chronic poor’s access and participation in social programs. This paper reviews the implementation and performance of two “social intermediation services” that were designed to address these constraints, improve beneficiaries’ access to social programs, and help the poor surmount poverty: Chile Solidario, the first such service in Latin America, and Red Unidos, implemented later in Colombia. The analysis provides insights on key factors influencing performance, cost effectiveness, and the impacts that such services can be expected to have.
    Keywords: extreme poverty, behavioral economics, social programs
    JEL: D1 H5 I3
    Date: 2014–12
  2. By: Andersen, Lykke E.; Breisinger, Clemens; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Jemio, Luis Carlos; Ringler, Claudia; Robertson, Richard D.; Verner, Dorte; Wiebelt, Manfred
    Abstract: This report has been prepared in response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. Findings suggest that because of the climate change impacts on agricultural production (yield change) and international food prices, unless proper mitigation measures are implemented, by 2050 Brazil and Mexico may face accumulated economic loses between US$ 272.7 billion and US$ 550.6 billion and between US$ 91.0 billion and US$ 194.7, respectively. Peru, with a different productive structure, may face both economic gain and loss (a gain of US$11.0 billion against a loss of US$ 43.3 billion).
    Keywords: Economics, Macroeconomics, Agriculture, Climate change, Food prices, Gender, Women, productivity, income, households,
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Mellado, Cristhian; Escobari, Diego
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of virtual integration of financial markets on stock market return co-movements. In May of 2011 the Chilean, Colombian, and Peruvian stock markets virtually integrated their stock exchanges and central securities depositories to form the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA). We utilize the dynamic conditional correlation model propose by Engle (2002) to identify a statistically significant positive correlation between these markets. Moreover, we find strong evidence that the creation of the MILA increased the levels of dynamic correlation between stock returns. A higher correlation was also found during the dot-com bubble and the 2007 financial crises. Our results imply a decline in gains from international diversification by holding portfolios consisting of diverse stocks of these countries.
    Keywords: Latin American Integrated Market, Dynamic conditional correlation, Integration.
    JEL: C10 F36 G11 G15
    Date: 2014–12–23
  4. By: Marisa Bucheli (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Máximo Rossi (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República y Associate Research Fellow, Center for Inter-American Policy and Research (CIPR), Tulane University)
    Abstract: According to World Health Organization (2013), 30% of even-partnered women have experienced either physical or/and sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) in the course of their lives. The incidence of IPV in Latin America and Caribbean region is higher relative to other high income and middle-income countries. This problem is particularly relevant in Uruguay. The empirical literature provides evidence that violence towards partners is more likely among individuals that justify, approve or favor this type of violence. This paper explores the extent to which tolerant attitudes to violence against women are correlated with tolerance to violence against men, and the relation of these attitudes with three factors: a) having experienced violence when a child, b) attitudes to motherhood roles and, c) attitudes to gender roles in society.
    Keywords: Intimate partner violence; women; attitudes; intergenerational transmission of violence; motherhood roles; gender roles.
    JEL: D19 J16
    Date: 2014–12
  5. By: Orazio Attanasio; Sally Grantham-McGregor; Camila Fernández; Emla Fitzsimons; Marta Rubio-Codina; Costas Meghir
    Abstract: This article outlines how a home visiting intervention in Colombia, delivered at scale through partnering with existing social welfare systems, successfully increased the variety of play materials and play activities in economically disadvantaged households with young children. The study shows that 18 months of weekly one-hour home visits resulted in significant behavioral changes in care-giving practices and improved certain aspects of children's home environments. Findings highlight a promising avenue to reduce socioeconomic gaps in child development at scale.
    Keywords: Home environment, Low-income, Families, Colombia, Child development, Early childhood, Education
    JEL: F Z
    Date: 2013–06–30
  6. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Banks and Banking Reform Public Sector Development
    Date: 2013–09
  7. By: Maribel Jiménez (IELDE/UNSa); Jorge A. Paz (CONICET-IELDE/UNSa)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the evolution of the educational performance of Argentinean students using data from the PISA 2000, 2006 and 2009 assessments. There are several reasons for this analysis. First, the comparatively low level of Argentina in the international context which, in 2009, ended located below other countries of the region. Second, the significant decrease, observed between 2000 and 2006, in the average score of Argentinean students, was not reversed in 2009. However, during the period considered, a variety of public policies, to improve the national educational situation, were implemented in the country. The main purpose of this paper is to quantify and account for the changes in test results, evaluating the effect of student social, economic and demographic characteristics, as well as those of their families and the schools they attend. The study utilizes two methodological approaches: first, a multivariate analysis of the factors determining academic performance, in order to evaluate, from estimating a multilevel model, the net effect of each factor, temporarily comparing its relative significance and, second, a nonparametric decomposition, using the propensity score matching technique, of the observed change in performance. The results show that the change in the composition of students by grade attended, grade repetition and the availability of computers at home played a predominant role in the evolution of the academic performance of Argentina. The change in the composition of students and the increase of the repetition rate may be associated with the inclusion process of students, especially those of low economic resources, which has taken place in the country, after the great economic crisis of 2001 - 2002 that excluded many young people in the education system.
    Date: 2014–12
  8. By: Alvaro Forteza (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Cecilia Noboa (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: We present a simple model of a benevolent government that provides insurance to risk averse individuals. As in macroeconomics, commitment to fully contingent rules is better than discretion, but when the government can only commit to simple rules, discretion may be the best available option. The model provides a simple albeit precise characterization of discretion and commitment to a simple rule in the context of social protection, showing when and why discretion may be better than commitment. We argue that the forces highlighted in our model can provide a rationale for several highly distortive policies often observed in the real world in weak institutional environments.
    Keywords: Discretion, Commitment, Simple Rules, Informality
    JEL: E61 H20 H30 H50 O17
    Date: 2014–08
  9. By: Andrés Dean (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Estefanía Galván (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Ivone Perazzo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: Concerning rural labor, Uruguay is a special case in the region since the level of coverage of social security for rural workers is high (above 70%), while they have some benefits that are typically not found for these workers, such as a specific unemployment allowance. In this work, using administrative records of employment histories available between 1997 and 2009, the effective access of rural workers to the unemployment insurance scheme is analyzed and the access to two alternative systems is simulated. Results show that in the current system the level of coverage of the insurance for rural workers facing unemployment is low (46.5%) and that the general system of unemployment insurance applied for the rest of formal employees would have a coverage 15% higher if it is applied to rural workers. However, in none of the scenarios presented the coverage of the unemployment insurance exceeds 70%. This would indicate that there are special conditions of the contributions structure and the duration of employment periods of these workers that do not allow them to complete the requirements to access the right to the unemployment insurance. Therefore, additional policies would be required.
    Keywords: unemployment insurance, rural workers, Uruguay
    JEL: J43 J65
    Date: 2014–12
  10. By: Martin Ravallion
    Abstract: The traditional approach to poverty measurement puts no explicit weight on success at increasing the typical level of living of the poorest—raising the consumption floor. To address this deficiency, the paper defines and measures the expected value of the floor, allowing for transient effects and measurement errors in survey data. On using all suitable and available surveys for the developing world over 1981-2011, the expected value of the floor is about half the $1.25 a day poverty line. There has been only modest progress in raising the floor, despite much progress in reducing the number living near the floor.
    JEL: I32 I38 O15
    Date: 2014–12
  11. By: Gustavo Gonzaga (PUC - Rio); Beatriz Muriel (Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)); Cristina Terra (Université de Cergy-Pontoise)
    Abstract: We build a theoretical model that incorporates unionization in the labor market into a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) framework to investigate the impact of unionization on the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem. To capture the American economy case, we assume that unskilled labor in the manufactured goods sector is unionized, and that sector is intensive in skilled labor, and that trade liberalization increases the relative price of manufactured goods. In the HOS model, trade liberalization induces a reallocation of production towards the sector that uses intensively the country's most abundant factor. The resulting change in relative labor demand impacts wage bargaining in the unionized sector, which, in turn, has a dampening eect on the Stolper- Samuelson eect. Moreover, wages of unionized workers are even less responsive to trade liberalization. Through traditional mandated-wages regressions, we show that skilled-wage diferentials changes were less pronounced among more unionized sectors in the U.S. economy for the 1979-1990 period.
    Keywords: Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, wage bargaining, unionization
    JEL: F16 J31 J51
    Date: 2014–04
  12. By: Cecilia González (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Marisa Bucheli (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: Uruguay comenzó su transición demográfica a principios del siglo veinte y tiene una población envejecida si se lo compara con los países de la región. A su vez, es un país con una larga tradición de gasto público en programas sociales, en particular con un sistema de jubilaciones y pensiones de gran cobertura. Esto plantea la preocupación por el enlentecimiento del crecimiento y por la sustentabilidad de los sistemas de protección a la tercera edad. Este trabajo se plantea identificar la existencia de un bono demográfico para Uruguay durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte y analizar el efecto de los cambios demográficos esperados en un horizonte de cincuenta años sobre el bono demográfico y las cuentas públicas. La metodología utilizada se basa en Mason y Lee (2006, 2007) que plantean la dependencia económica no solo considerando la edad de los individuos sino también aspectos relacionados con su inserción en el mercado de trabajo y con su propensión a consumir. Se utilizan diferentes proyecciones de población y las estimaciones del Proyecto de Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias (National Transfer Accounts) para Uruguay. Los resultados indican que el país disfruta de un bono demográfico positivo, pero alrededor del año 2025 pasará a ser negativo. Los valores del bono no son de gran magnitud, en especial en la comparación internacional. En este sentido, no se esperan grandes impactos económicos y fiscales a partir de los cambios demográficos planteados.
    Keywords: envejecimiento, bono demográfico, crecimiento económico
    JEL: J11 J14
    Date: 2014–11

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