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on Central and South America |
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Issue of 2014‒12‒13
nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Bertrand Gruss |
| Abstract: | After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term. |
| Keywords: | Commodity boom;Latin America;Caribbean;China;Commodity prices;Demand;Business cycles;Economic growth;Global VAR (GVAR); commodity prices; output growth; Latin America. |
| Date: | 2014–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/154&r=lam |
| By: | Spolador, Humberto F.S.; Smith, Rodney B.W. |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a multisector growth model to examine the potential effects of climate change and Brazilian agriculture. In keeping with the current literature, the model assumes climate (here temperature and rainfall) affects agricultural output via its impact on total factor productivity (TFP). We begin by estimating an aggregate agricultural technology for Brazil, with econometric results suggesting a strong relationship exists between rainfall, temperature and agricultural TFP. We then introduce the climate effects into a dynamic multisector growth model of Brazil. Model results suggest climate change could have a negative impact on agriculture, but benefit manufacturing, with long run agricultural output per unit of labor being less than half of agricultural output per worker in a no climate change world. |
| Keywords: | Climate Changes, agricultural growth, multisector growth model, Environmental Economics and Policy, Productivity Analysis, O10, O11, Q1, |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea14:170294&r=lam |
| By: | Gaddis, Isis; Pieters, Janneke |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates gender differences in the impact of Brazil's trade liberalization on labor market outcomes. To identify the causal effect of trade reforms, the paper uses difference-in-difference estimation exploiting variation across microregions in pre-liberalization industry composition. The analysis finds that trade liberalization reduced male and female labor force participation and employment rates, but the effects on men were significantly larger. Thereby, tariff reductions contributed to gender convergence in labor force participation and employment rates. Gender differences are concentrated among the low-skilled population and in the tradable sector, where male and female workers are most likely to be imperfect substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Free Trade,Gender and Development,Trade Policy |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7095&r=lam |
| By: | Dhoubhadel, Sunil; Azzam, Azzeddine; Stockton, Matthew |
| Abstract: | Increasing requirements in the US to blend higher volumes of advanced biofuels with gasoline has increased the importance of imports of sugarcane-based ethanol from Brazil. Using the residual supply approach we test for oligopsony power of US importers in importing ethanol from Brazil. The residual supply elasticity is found to be highly elastic and positive indicating a small degree of market power. The result implies that the US importers are operating as oligopsony with respect to ethanol imports from Brazil and further restricting ethanol imports would reduce welfare of US importers. |
| Keywords: | Market power, ethanol imports, residual supply elasticity, trade policy, Industrial Organization, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, F12, F14, L13, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea14:169543&r=lam |
| By: | Bertranou, Fabio |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies and assesses the mechanisms used to formulate and to implement employment policy in Argentina. Specifically, it investigates the range of factors that have had a direct or indirect effect on determining the institutional organization surrounding such employment policy mechanisms, as well as the context in which they have been developed. |
| Keywords: | employment policy, promotion of employment, national plan, trend, Argentina, politique de l'emploi, promotion de l'emploi, plan national, tendance, Argentine, política de empleo, fomento del empleo, plan nacional, tendencia, Argentina |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:485638&r=lam |
| By: | Fabio Sánchez; Tatiana Velasco |
| Abstract: | Since 2002 the ACCES credit for higher education has financed more than 280,000 students. Prior evaluations have shown evidence as to its positive effect on the academic performance and the reduction in the dropout rates of the recipients. Nevertheless, no evidence exists so far on the effect these credit programs have had on the labor market indicators of their beneficiaries. In this study we attempt to estimate such effect. In particular, the question we seek to answer is if, once working as graduates, do the beneficiaries of ACCES loans have higher salaries and if this is the case, why does this happen and through which channels does it occur. Using administrative data for more than 300 thousand applicants of this credit in Colombia and using a regression discontinuity design, we found that the recipients of the ACCES educational credit have starting salaries as graduates which are higher in comparison with those graduates not receiving this credit. We also undertake a mediation methodology within an Intent-to-Treat Regression Discontinuity framework that allows for a precise identification and quantification of the mediation channels. We concluded that once graduated, the ACCES beneficiaries’ exhibit longer job search periods, which would substantially explain their greater starting salaries of their first formal jobs. Academic performance during college also account for the differences in starting salaries yet to lesser degree. |
| Keywords: | higher education, educational credit, regression discontinuity, job market |
| Date: | 2014–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:012229&r=lam |
| By: | Alma Espino (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Fernando Isabella (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Martin Leites (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Alina Machado (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | Women behaviors regarding the labor market have changed substantially in recent decades, accompanied by changes in gender roles. These changes, however, were not identical for all women with some groups entering sooner and showing trajectories more similar to those of men. This paper aims to characterize the evolution of female labor supply in Uruguay in the long run and analyze the existence of heterogeneous behaviors for different wage profiles. In order to do so, we estimate women intertemporal and uncompensated labor supply elasticities, both at the intensive and extensive margins and by educational groups and generations. The results show that regardless of the educational level of women's groups, the participation of younger cohorts in the labor market has increased. The estimates confirm that the intertemporal elasticity is positive and greater than the uncompensated both intensive and extensive margins: women adjust their work behavior according to their salary in the lifecycle. This is particularly true for less-educated women, representing evidence contrary to the logic of the "added worker". Positive substitution effect is confirmed, with different magnitudes according to educational level. In particular, the labor supply of women with tertiary education is more sensitive to wages at the extensive than the intensive margin. Finally, intergenerational changes in marginal utility of wealth are found. |
| Keywords: | female labor supply, intertemporal elasticity, uncompensated elasticity |
| JEL: | J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-11-14&r=lam |
| By: | Aziz Galvão, da Silva Júnior; Bruna, do Valle Rodriguez Neves; Marina, Macedo Rocha; Artur Henrique, Leite Falcette; Abdias Garcia, Machado |
| Abstract: | Brazilian economy, which is currently the sixth largest in the world. The sector is responsible for 27% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, it also accounts for nearly 40% of the values generated in the export and employs around 26% of the economically active population of the country. The objective of this paper is to present and discuss updated information regarding the importance of the main products of the agribusiness sector to the Brazilian economy. Special attention was given to the beef and soybean chain. The perspective and challenges of the sector are briefly presented. |
| Keywords: | agribusiness, agricultural products, Brazil, Agribusiness, Industrial Organization, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iefi13:164763&r=lam |
| By: | David Margolis (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor) |
| Abstract: | Over half of all workers in the developing world are self-employed. Although some self-employment is chosen by entrepreneurs with well-defined projects and ambitions, roughly two thirds results from individuals having no better alternatives. The importance of self-employment in the overall distribution of jobs is determined by many factors, including social protection systems, labor market frictions, the business environment, and labor market institutions. However, self-employment in the developing world tends to be low productivity employment, and as countries move up the development path, the availability of wage employment grows and the mix of jobs changes. |
| Keywords: | self-employment, entrepreneurship, development |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01052586&r=lam |