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on Central and South America |
|
Issue of 2014‒10‒22
eight papers chosen by |
| By: | Manuel Ramos Francia; Ana María Aguilar Argaez; Santiago García-Verdú; Gabriel Cuadra |
| Abstract: | We compare the experience of Latin American external debt crises, in particular the one in the 80s, with the current European one. We do so with the aim of shedding some light on the needed adjustment mechanisms. We argue for the need of much larger debt relief in Europe. To address the moral hazard problems that would arise, we propose providing such relief conditional on the reduction of both the fiscal and the current account deficits to zero as a commitment signal. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Debt, Debt Crisis, Crisis Management. |
| JEL: | F34 H12 H63 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2014-17&r=lam |
| By: | Andrea Bonilla Bolanos (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France) |
| Abstract: | Since 2000, South American economies have undertaken several regional projects to eliminate socioeconomic inequalities and improve citizens’ living standards. This study evaluates the convergence in real GDP per-capita, as a suitable proxy measure, of 10 Unasur members, namely Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Venezuela, for the period 1951-2011. By relying on cointegration techniques and applying Bernard and Durlauf’s (1995) stochastic definitions of convergence and common trends, the presented evidence supports the existence of common long-run trends driving output in South America, meaning that the region is involved in a dynamic process of convergence in living standards. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration, Convergence, Economic integration, South America, Unasur |
| JEL: | C32 O40 O54 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1424&r=lam |
| By: | Carlos Eduardo Lampert Costa; Manuel José Forero González; Nathália Filgueiras de Almeida |
| Abstract: | Este trabalho tem por objetivo realizar uma análise do relacionamento do Brasil com os principais Bancos Multilaterais de Desenvolvimento (BMDs) durante o período de 1990 até 2012. Para tal efeito, foram considerados três BMDs, a saber: o Banco Internacional de Reconstrução e Desenvolvimento (BIRD) (Banco Mundial), o Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento (BID) e a Corporação Andina de Fomento (CAF), hoje denominada Banco de Desenvolvimento da América Latina. Com a finalidade de se entender melhor qual é a lógica de funcionamento destes organismos internacionais de financiamento, o trabalho procura analisar, inicialmente, como atuam em termos operacionais e administrativos, além de levantar questões relacionadas com estratégias, produtos e condições de financiamento. Especificamente, no que tange aos três bancos, é analisada a dinâmica dos empréstimos e dos fluxos financeiros em termos setoriais, geográficos e institucionais, assim como se tenta recuperar as estratégias implementadas de acordo com documentos de estratégia-país elaborados por cada uma dessas instituições. Desde 1990, o volume de empréstimos ao Brasil cresceu significativamente, totalizando quase US$ 86 bilhões no período definido, seguindo uma relação de parceria que superou, basicamente depois da estabilização econômica em 1994, alguns desentendimentos comuns antes de 1990, principalmente com o BIRD. This paper aims to analyze the relationship between Brazil and major Multilateral Development Banks (MDB) between 1990 and 2012. For this purpose, three MDBs were considered, namely, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD, World Bank), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB ) and the Andean Development Corporation (CAF), later renamed to Development Bank of Latin America. In order to obtain a better understanding about the working rationale of these international financial institutions, the paper begins by examining their operational and administrative procedures, as well as raising issues related to their strategies, products and financing conditions. More specifically, with regard to these three banks, the work analyzes the dynamics of loans and financial flows in sectorial, geographic and institutional terms. It also seeks to give an account of strategies implemented in accordance with Country Strategy Papers developed by each of these institutions. Since 1990, the volume of loans to Brazil grew significantly, totaling nearly USD 86 billion in the stated period, a result of long-standing partnerships that were able to resolve, mainly after the economic stabilization in 1994, several disagreements experienced before 1990, especially with the IBRD. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2004&r=lam |
| By: | Susana Katherine Chacón Espejo (Master in Regional Sciences - Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile); Dusan Paredes Araya (IDEAR - Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile) |
| Abstract: | The spatial income inequality in Latin American countries is a recent academic affair. Particularly, the case of Chile highlights around the world because it has one of the highest individual and spatial inequality rates. This article analyzes the spatial income inequality in Chile during 1992 2011 evaluating the role of the spatial labor sorting through multilevel models. The findings show that human capital doesn't allocate randomly across the space but its spatial concentration at the biggest urban centers impacts significantly the income inequality between counties. These findings motivate the discussion about spatial dimension of the inequality and suggest that policymakers should consider ways to spread human capital throughout the nation as an alternative to reduce spatial inequality. |
| Keywords: | Spatial income inequality, spatial labor sorting, human capital, multilevel regression. |
| JEL: | O15 O18 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cat:dtecon:dt201317&r=lam |
| By: | Santiago Garriga (UNLP) |
| Abstract: | El Plan Nacer es un programa del Ministerio de Salud de la Nación Argentina que invierte recursos con el objetivo de mejorar la cobertura y calidad de los servicios de salud en niños menores de seis años, mujeres embarazadas y puérperas que no poseen obra social. La novedad del mismo radica en la generación de un seguro público de salud para la población materno-infantil sin cobertura social y en la aplicación de un modelo de financiamiento basado en resultados. Este trabajo investiga los efectos del Plan Nacer sobre la mortalidad infantil en la Argentina siguiendo un enfoque no-experimental, basándose particularmente en la metodología de diferencias en diferencias, que consiste en la comparación de condiciones sanitarias entre poblaciones inscriptas y no inscriptas al programa, antes y después de su implementación. La fuente principal de variación es la participación en el programa a nivel departamental. El análisis de impacto realizado considera el caso de un tratamiento en donde las unidades bajo programa están sujetas a distintos grados de exposición al mismo. Los resultados encontrados indican que el Plan Nacer genera una reducción de la tasa de mortalidad infantil. El resultado es ambiguo si se divide a la tasa de mortalidad infantil entre la tasa de mortalidad neonatal, y la tasa de mortalidad post-neonatal: mientras que el Plan tiene un impacto negativo sobre la segunda, no ocurre lo mismo con la primera. Además no parecería existir un efecto del programa sobre la tasa de mortalidad materna. |
| JEL: | C33 I12 I38 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0168&r=lam |
| By: | Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-UNLP); Martín Cicowiez (CEDLAS-UNLP); Walter Sosa Escudero (UDESA-CEDLAS) |
| Abstract: | La pobreza y la desigualdad son problemas sociales centrales en América Latina. Este libro desarrolla las principales discusiones conceptuales sobre estos temas, provee un amplio conjunto de herramientas analíticas, las aplica a datos concretos de encuestas de hogares y ofrece evidencia para todos los países de América Latina. El documento de trabajo ofrece el capítulo introductorio, y dos capítulos adicionales del libro, publicado por Editorial Temas. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0171&r=lam |
| By: | Issler, João Victor; Notini, Hilton Hostalacio |
| Abstract: | This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superiorinterpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly BrazilianGDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano andMurasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad ofinterpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP froma business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the mostappropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimateis compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthlyGDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction,since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthlyestimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easilyimplemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, whileestimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, ina nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integratedapproach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimatewith those done elsewhere. |
| Date: | 2014–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:757&r=lam |
| By: | Gonzalo Suazo; Josué Pérez |
| Abstract: | This paper shows evidence on firm demographics and firm survival in Chile. A dataset of sectoral indicators of firm dynamics has been created using unnamed administrative records collected by the Tax Office. The patterns of firm entry, exit and survival are described and analyzed by sales and employment size, sectors and also over time. We find that both sectoral and size effects are important in determining firms demographics. We also find that entry and exit rates are different across countries. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchee:108&r=lam |