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on International Finance |
| By: | Ferrari Minesso, Massimo; Siena, Daniele |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe assets and the geography of dollar intermediation, stablecoins transform the dynamics of global financial markets, generating new trade-offs, also for the U.S.: even if they widen the dollar’s global footprint and compress U.S. risk-free yields, they entail non-trivial macro-financial costs. Stablecoins dampen the domestic real effects of U.S. monetary policy and increase both U.S. and foreign exposure to cross-country shocks, making a more digital, dollar-centric reserve system less stable. These effects are limited at low adoption levels but rise non-linearly with stablecoin capitalization, reshaping the functioning of the international financial system. JEL Classification: G15, E42, E44, E52, F3 |
| Keywords: | financial stability, global safe asset, monetary policy, spillovers, stablecoins |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263174 |
| By: | Sébastien Blanco; Miriam Koomen; Pinar Yesin |
| Abstract: | We present novel evidence on the global transmission of monetary policy (MP) surprises via bond funds. Using daily MP surprise measures and a multi-country panel of weekly fund flows, we document that bond fund flows respond systematically to MP surprises. The direction, intensity, and persistence of these responses, however, vary across destination countries, fund investment strategies, and fund domiciles. Furthermore, bond fund flows react not only to domestic MP surprises, but also to foreign MP surprises, indicating cross-border spillovers. We explore two mechanisms driving these responses: the relative importance of MP shocks versus information shocks, and the impact of exchange rate movements on portfolio rebalancing. Our findings highlight the role of nonbank financial intermediaries in global MP transmission. |
| Keywords: | NBFIs, Bond funds, Monetary policy surprises, Cross-border spillovers |
| JEL: | G23 E52 E44 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2026-01 |
| By: | Marinelli Gaston |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how global dollar appreciations transmit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) through commodity prices and country risk. Using quarterly data for 22 EMDEs from 1999–2019, I combine the Obstfeld & Zhou (2023) dataset with country-specific commodity price indices and classify countries as commodity exporters or importers via a trade-balance rule. Global dollar appreciation shocks explain up to 16% of the forecast-error variance of commodity terms of trade (CToT) and up to 9% of EMBI spreads. A global dollar appreciation depreciates EMDE currencies, raises EMBI, depresses investment, and lowers GDP, with muted CPI effects. Stratifying by commodity status reveals sharp heterogeneity: exporters suffer larger and more persistent adverse responses, while importers seem stable. To uncover mechanisms, I implement an approach `a la Cloyne–Jord`a–Taylor (2023) to estimate indirect effects. A more favorable CToT response mitigates output and demand contractions, whereas higher commodity import prices and larger EMBI responses amplify adverse outcomes. |
| JEL: | F4 C3 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4818 |
| By: | Silvia Miranda-Agrippino; Tsvetelina Nenova; Hélène Rey |
| Abstract: | Using a novel indicator for the People's Bank of China monetary policy stance, we estimate a policy rule that accounts for the dual nature of its price stability mandate—encompassing domestic inflation and the exchange rate—and for the evolution of its operational framework. The “Ins”: The domestic transmission follows textbook patterns, with exceptions due to the active management of the renminbi and the financial account. The "Outs": International spillovers are powerful and affect commodity markets, global production and trade. The pass-through to foreign (US) prices is substantial. Financial spillovers are second-order, and mostly derivative from trade spillovers. |
| JEL: | E50 F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34626 |
| By: | Franziska Hünnekes (Centre de recherche de la Banque Centrale européenne - Banque Centrale Européenne); Maximilian Konradt (Graduate Institute Geneva); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, Ifo Institute); Julian Wingenbach (Goethe University Frankfurt = Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main) |
| Abstract: | Germany is a world champion in exporting capital ("Exportweltmeister"). Few countries have invested larger amounts of savings abroad. However, we show that Germany plays in the third division when it comes to investment performance. We construct a comprehensive new database of foreign investment returns for 13 advanced economies going back to the 1970s. Germany's foreign returns were 2 to 5 percentage points lower, per year, than those of comparable countries. Germany also earns significantly less within asset classes, especially for equities and FDI. These aggregate results are confirmed when using return data from 50, 000 mutual funds worldwide. German investment funds are worse at stock picking and at timing the market than their international peers. This is particularly true for the "Big 6" German mutual fund companies. German households would have fared much better with a passive investment strategy. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Assets, Investment Returns, International Capital Flows |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05448425 |
| By: | Iñaki Aldasoro; Andreas Barth; Laura Comino Suarez; Riccardo Reale |
| Abstract: | When capital requirements rise, banks can raise equity or reduce risk-weighted assets, typically by cutting lending. We show they also use credit default swaps (CDS). Linking EU trade-repository CDS data to syndicated loans for November 2017 to April 2024, we document that banks significantly increase CDS hedging on loans to firms in countries that raise their countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB). Our identification exploits within-bank comparisons of hedging for similar borrowers across countries with different CCyB rates. A 1 percentage point increase in the CCyB reduces the uninsured share of a loan by about 53 percentage points, with the strongest effects for banks most exposed to the buffer-raising country. Eligible credit risk transfer via CDS thus emerges as a first-order channel through which banks accommodate tighter capital requirements, potentially attenuating macroprudential policy transmission. |
| Keywords: | bank capital requirements, CDS, countercyclical capital buffers |
| JEL: | E51 G21 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1323 |
| By: | Ana Babus; Maryam Farboodi; Gabriela Stockler |
| Abstract: | Banks face a dual mandate of raising cheap deposits while avoiding liquidity risk. We propose a novel mechanism whereby banks use portfolio opacity to meet this objective. Specifically, banks choose opaque portfolios to secure cheap long-term funding while trading off insolvency and illiquidity. We show that while opacity lowers deposit rates, it also leaves depositors with only noisy information about the bank’s solvency, making them cautious about keeping their funds in the bank—particularly when interest rates are high. We show that opacity raises bank profits, sometimes at the cost of exposure to high probability of illiquidity. In particular, in high-rate environments, banks adopt excessive opacity to further reduce deposit rates—at the cost of more frequent early failures. |
| JEL: | D89 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34618 |
| By: | Eric Vansteenberghe |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how dispersion in banks' subjective inflation forecasts is a channel of the transmission of monetary policy to credit supply. We extend the Monti-Klein model of monopolistic banking by incorporating risk aversion, subjective beliefs, and ambiguity aversion. The model predicts that greater inflation uncertainty or asymmetry in beliefs raises equilibrium loan rates and amplifies credit rationing. Using AnaCredit loan-level data for France, we estimate finite-mixture density regressions that allow for latent heterogeneity in loan pricing. Empirically, we find that higher subjective uncertainty and asymmetry both increase average lending rates and skew their distribution, disproportionately affecting financially constrained firms in the right tail. Quantitatively, moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile of our indicators raises average borrowing costs by more than 10 basis points, which translates into roughly 0.5 billion euros of additional annual interest expenses for non-financial corporations. By contrast, forecast disagreement has a weaker and less systematic effect. Taken together, these results show that uncertainty and asymmetry in inflation expectations are independent and powerful drivers of credit conditions, underscoring their importance for understanding monetary policy transmission through the banking sector. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.12255 |
| By: | Saiz, Lorena; Kocabaş, Serkan |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how credit supply shocks impact firm-level investment across the euro area using the novel AnaCredit database. Employing the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2018), we decompose loan growth rates into four components: bank-specific, firm-specific, industry-specific, and common shocks. Our findings show that idiosyncratic bank supply shocks significantly affect firm-level investment, particularly among firms that are highly dependent on bank loans. Furthermore, these granular bank-specific shocks explain most of the aggregate loan dynamics. We also find that the effects of bank shocks vary depending on firm characteristics, such as firm size, loan portfolio composition, and reliance on external financing. These results underscore the critical role banks play in shaping investment dynamics, especially under varying economic conditions. JEL Classification: E22, E50, G21, G31 |
| Keywords: | AnaCredit, bank credit, credit supply, investment, real effects |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263173 |
| By: | Agustin Benetrix (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Hayley Pallan (The World Bank); Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper reassesses the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in emerging and developing economies. Using cross-country data, it first shows that the relationship between FDI, growth, and local conditions such as financial depth and human capital is not stable over time: complementarities documented in studies based on data from the 1970s and 1980s largely disappear in more recent decades. It then builds a new dataset on sectoral FDI covering 112 emerging and developing economies over the period 1975‐2023 and documents substantial heterogeneity in the association between FDI and sectoral growth. FDI inflows are positively associated with growth in the primary sector, show no robust relationship in the secondary sector, and are negatively associated with growth in the tertiary sector. To interpret these patterns, we examine the role of global value chains (GVCs). We find that FDI is most strongly associated with growth in country‐sectors with low GVC participation, while this relationship weakens or disappears as GVC integration increases. Moreover, the growth effects of FDI depend critically on the type of GVC integration. Backward participation amplifies the positive growth effects of FDI in the primary sector but attenuates them in the secondary sector and worsens the negative effects in tertiary sector, whereas forward participation strengthens the association between FDI and growth in manufacturing. Taken together, the results suggest that the elusive aggregate relationship between FDI and growth reflects a structural transformation in how foreign investment is embedded in global production networks: in highly fragmented value chains, FDI can expand gross activity without generating commensurate domestic value-added growth. |
| Keywords: | FDI, Economic Growth, Global Value Chains |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F14 C23 F60 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0126 |