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on International Finance |
| By: | Broner, Fernando; Martin, Alberto; Meyer, Josefin; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based "hegemonic globalization", built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any two countries increases with the degree of alignment in these policies. Hegemons promote policy alignment and thereby facilitate deeper trade integration. A unipolar world, dominated by a single hegemon, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is particularly costly for the declining hegemon and its closest allies. To test the theory, we use international treaties as a proxy for alignment and compile a novel "Global Treaties Database", covering 77, 000 agreements signed between 1800 and 2020. Consistent with the theory, we find that hegemons account for a disproportionate share of global treaty activity and that treaty-signing is a leading indicator of increasing bilateral trade. |
| Keywords: | Hegemon, globalization, trade integration, international coercion, international treaties, cooperation, multipolar world |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F50 F51 F55 F60 P45 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:320425 |
| By: | Gelpern, Anna; Haddad, Omar; Horn, Sebastian; Kintzinger, Paulina; Parks, Bradley; Trebesch, Christoph |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the secured lending practices of Chinese creditors in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We present a new dataset and detailed case studies of collateralized public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans from Chinese state-owned institutions in EMDEs between 2000 and 2021. Almost half of China's total PPG loan portfolio to EMDEs is effectively collateralized - amounting to $420 billion in collateralized debt across 57 countries. We document that Chinese lenders use techniques adapted from export and project finance to build multi-layered legal safety nets, which help ensure that risky EMDE loans will be repaid. As security, they use liquid, easily accessible assets, such as cash in bank accounts located in China. They rarely take infrastructure project assets as collateral, but often rely for repayment on established commodity revenue streams unrelated to the project. Typically, EMDE governments and state-owned enterprises commit to route foreign currency proceeds from commodity sales through bank accounts controlled by the lender. The cash balances in these accounts can be very large; in low-income, commodity-exporting countries, they average more than 20% of annual PPG debt service to all external creditors. The same revenue source can secure multiple successive borrowings over many years. Our findings reveal a previously undocumented pattern of revenue ring-fencing, where a significant share of commodity export receipts never reaches the exporting countries. Revenues routed overseas secure priority repayment for the creditor; they remain out of public sight and largely beyond the borrower's reach until the secured debts are repaid. These findings raise new concerns about debt transparency, fiscal management, fiscal autonomy, and the quality of macroeconomic surveillance, particularly in commodity-exporting EMDEs. |
| Keywords: | China, collateral, sovereign debt and default, lending, Belt and Road Initiative |
| JEL: | F34 G15 H63 H81 K12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:320424 |
| By: | Juin-Jen Chang; Wan-Ting Chang; YiLi Chien; Chun-Hung Kuo |
| Abstract: | We analyze the interaction between the Taiwan central bank's profits and its policies. To earn large and consistent profits, the Taiwan central bank significantly expanded its balance sheet and relied on inexpensive short-term domestic funding to invest in longer-term foreign debt securities. In doing so, the central bank engineered a massive duration and currency mismatch on its balance sheet to capture term and currency risk premiums. We also argue that these large profits could not have been realized without a low rate policy combined with heavy regulations on domestic financial institutions. These regulations function like a tax on the returns of private overseas investments, effectively trapping funds within the domestic financial system. Ultimately, the profits earned by the central bank are, in effect, an implicit tax revenue levied on domestic depositors. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; fiscal policy; central bank independence; financial repression |
| JEL: | G12 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101338 |
| By: | Laura Felber |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on cross-border consumer spending in small open economies. Exploiting a large, unexpected and persistent central bank-induced exchange rate appreciation and drawing on a unique dataset of over 500 million anonymized debit and credit card transactions, I document a substantial and immediate impact on both cross-border shopping by domestic consumers and tourism spending by foreign consumers. The strongest spending adjustments are observed among domestic consumers living near the border and foreign consumers from neighboring countries. Furthermore, foreign consumers from neighboring countries exhibit high exchange rate sensitivity on both the extensive and intensive margins and shift their consumption from higher- to lower-value goods and services. These findings suggest significant substitution effects in consumption on impact and emphasize the important role of cross-border shopping in small open economies. The paper provides insights for policymakers and central bankers, especially in small open economies where the exchange rate channel is an important channel of monetary policy transmission. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates, Consumption, Monetary policy, Exchange rate channel, Heterogeneity, Transaction payments data, Tourism, Event study |
| JEL: | D12 E21 E52 E58 F14 F41 R11 Z30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2025-09 |
| By: | Hongzhe Wen; Songbai Li |
| Abstract: | With market capitalization exceeding USD 200 billion as of early 2025, stablecoins have evolved from a crypto-focused innovation into a vital component of the global monetary structure. This paper identifies the characteristics of stablecoins from an analytical perspective and investigates the role of stablecoins in forming hybrid monetary ecosystems where public (fiat, CBDC) and private (USDC, USDT, DAI) monies coexist. Through econometric analysis with multiple models, we find that stablecoins maintain strong peg stability, while each type also exhibiting distinctive responses to market variables such as trading volume and capitalization, depending on the mechanisms behind. We introduce a hybrid system design that proposes a two-layer structure where private stablecoin issuers are backed by central bank reserves, ensuring uniformity, security, and programmability. This model merges the advantages of decentralized finance and payment innovation while utilizing the Federal Reserve's institutional trust. A case study on the 2023 SVB-USDC depeg event illustrates how such a hybrid system could prevent panic-induced instability through transparent reserves, secured liquidity, and interoperable assets. Ultimately, this research concludes that a hybrid monetary model not only enhances financial inclusivity, scalability, and dollar utility in digital ecosystems but also strengthens systemic resilience, offering a credible blueprint for future digital dollar architectures. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.10997 |
| By: | Agnello, Luca; Castro, Vítor; Sousa, Ricardo M.; Hammoudeh, Shawkat |
| Abstract: | Using a rich high-frequency and a cross-country panel of daily sovereign CDS spreads, we employ local projections to estimate the dynamic response of sovereign risk to the occurrence of natural disasters. We find that climatological and, to a lesser extent, hydrological events have a small and short-lived effect on the sovereign CDS spreads. We also explore whether anticipatory effects arise before a disaster unfolds, and confirm that the expectations of imminent disasters do not substantially affect CDS pricing. On the other hand, we show that the sovereign risk is dominated by regional and global financial spillovers, thus reflecting the systemic nature of the sovereign credit markets. Our results also suggest that governments may benefit from developing disaster-specific risk reduction and fiscal resilience strategies, as well as early-warning models that integrate disaster forecasting into risk monitoring frameworks. Sovereigns’ coordination and risk-pooling mechanisms may also be essential in times of regional calamities. Moreover, portfolio hedging strategies should include short-term protective positions in the vulnerable sovereigns during known disaster seasons. Disaster-integrated ESG strategies could also enhance the portfolio resilience. |
| Keywords: | expectations; natural disasters; credit default swaps; sovereign risk; local projections; spillovers |
| JEL: | Q54 H30 H60 |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128535 |