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on Dynamic General Equilibrium |
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Issue of 2024‒04‒29
twenty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Nicolò Gnocato (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the optimal conduct of monetary policy in the presence of heterogeneous exposure to energy price shocks between the employed and the unemployed, as it is documented by data from the euro-area Consumer Expectations Survey: higher energy prices weigh more on the unemployed, who consume less and devote a higher proportion of their consumption to energy. I account for this evidence into a tractable Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with Search and Matching (S&M) frictions in the labour market, and energy as a complementary input in production and as a non-homothetic consumption good: energy price shocks weigh more on the jobless, who consume less due to imperfect unemployment insurance and, since preferences are non-homothetic, devote a higher share of this lower consumption to energy. Households' heterogeneous exposure to rising energy prices induces an endogenous trade-off for monetary policy, whose optimal response involves partly accommodating core inflation so as to indirectly sustain employment and, therefore, prevent workers from becoming more exposed to the shock through unemployment. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous agents, New Keynesian, unemployment risk, energy shocks, optimal monetary policy, endogenous trade-off |
| JEL: | E21 E24 E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1450_24&r=dge |
| By: | Pascal Paul; Mauricio Ulate; Jing Cynthia Wu |
| Abstract: | We develop a quantitative New Keynesian DSGE model to study the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC): government-backed digital money available to retail consumers. At the heart of our model are monopolistic banks with market power in deposit and loan markets. When a CBDC is introduced, households benefit from an expansion of liquidity services and higher deposit rates as bank deposit market power is curtailed. However, deposits also flow out of the banking system and bank lending contracts. We assess this welfare trade-off for a wide range of economies that differ in their level of interest rates. We find substantial welfare gains from introducing a CBDC with an optimal interest rate that can be approximated by a simple rule of thumb: the maximum between 0% and the policy rate minus 1%. |
| Keywords: | central banks; digital currencies; banks; DSGE models; monetary policy; central bank |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98046&r=dge |
| By: | Kopiec, Paweł |
| Abstract: | When central banks announce cuts to future interest rates, the expected costs of government debt service decrease, generating additional resources in future budgets. This paper demonstrates that if the rational-expectations assumption is dropped, fiscal authority can exploit those gains by spending them on future transfers and, by announcing those transfers to households today, can enhance the output effects of forward guidance. Employing a version of the New Keynesian setup featuring bounded rationality in the form of level-k thinking, I derive an analytical expression capturing the output effects of that additional fiscal announcement. Subsequently, a similar formula is derived in a tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with bounded rationality, uninsured idiosyncratic risk, and redistributive effects of transfers. Finally, I use these analytical insights to explore the effects of the forward-guidance-induced fiscal announcement in a fully-blown heterogeneous agent New Keynesian framework with level-k thinking calibrated to match US data. The findings suggest that fiscal communication can amplify the output effects of standard forward guidance by 66%. Moreover, those gains can reach 120% when the debt-to-GDP ratio doubles. This suggests that forward guidance enriched with fiscal announcements about future transfers can be considered an effective policy option when both monetary and fiscal policies are constrained, e.g., during liquidity trap episodes accompanied by high levels of public debt. |
| Keywords: | Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Heterogeneous Agents, Bounded Rationality |
| JEL: | D31 D52 D81 E21 E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120563&r=dge |
| By: | Mikhail Andreyev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alyona Nelyubina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We use a DSGE model for a hydrocarbon-rich country to examine the macroeconomic implications of scenarios that lead to an energy transition. Our findings show that the scenario of the fall in export revenues from brown energy sales is the least preferred for energy transition in terms of welfare loss, while the scenario of imposing higher taxes is more acceptable. The most favourable scenario leading to the smallest drop in public wealth and long-term growth in output and consumption involves the productivity incentives in the green energy sector. We also analyse the impact of mechanisms such as monetary policy inertia, the level of openness of the financial account, technological substitutability between brown and green energy. We found that news about the future implementation of green policies alone cannot trigger the energy transition. Investments become cleaner after the news announcement, but this barely increases green energy production. |
| Keywords: | : dynamic models, general equilibrium, rational expectations, green energy, energy transition, climate policy, cross-border tax, monetary policy. |
| JEL: | D58 E47 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps122&r=dge |
| By: | Gasparini, Tommaso; Lewis, Vivien; Moyen, Stéphane; Villa, Stefania |
| Abstract: | Increases in firm default risk raise the default probability of banks while decreasing output and inflation in US data. To rationalize the empirical evidence, we analyse firm risk shocks in a New Keynesian model where entrepreneurs and banks engage in a loan contract and both are subject to default risk. In the model, a wave of corporate defaults leads to losses on banks' balance sheets; banks respond by selling assets and reducing credit provision. A highly leveraged banking sector exacerbates the contractionary effects of firm defaults. We show that high minimum capital requirements jointly implemented with a countercyclical capital buffer are effective in dampening the adverse consequences of firm risk shocks. |
| Keywords: | bank default, capital buffer, firm risk, macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 E61 G28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:287761&r=dge |
| By: | Billi, Roberto (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Galí, Jordi (CREI, UPF and BSE); Nakov, Anton (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal monetary policy problem in a New Keynesian economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, when the steady state natural rate (r*) becomes permanently negative. We show that the optimal policy aims to approach gradually a new steady state with positive average inflation. Around that steady state, the optimal policy implies well defined (second-best) paths for inflation and output in response to shocks to the natural rate. Under plausible calibrations, the optimal policy implies that the nominal rate remains at its ZLB most of the time. Despite the latter feature, the central bank can implement the optimal outcome as a unique equilibrium by means of an appropriate nonlinear interest rate rule. In order to establish that result, we derive sufficient conditions for local determinacy in a general model with endogenous regime switches. |
| Keywords: | zero lower bound; New Keynesian model; decline in r*; equilibrium determinacy; regime switching models; secular stagnat |
| JEL: | E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0433&r=dge |
| By: | Ina Hajdini; Andre Kurmann |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that regime shifts in Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) models generate predictable regime-dependent forecast errors in macro aggregates. Hence, forecast error predictability alone is neither sufficient to reject FIRE nor informative about alternative expectations theories. We instead propose a regime-robust test of FIRE and apply it to a medium-scale New Keynesian model with monetary policy regime shifts that is estimated on US data. While the test fails to decisively reject FIRE, the model conditional on macro data implies expectations that are generally different from observed survey forecasts, thus providing a new empirical motivation for alternative expectations theories. |
| Keywords: | Full-information Rational Expectations; Markov Regime Shifts; Forecasting Errors; Waves of Over- and Under-Reaction; Survey of Professional Forecasters |
| JEL: | C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2024–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:98054&r=dge |
| By: | Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania); Yang Yu (Shanghai Jiaotong University); Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows the importance of technological synergies among heterogeneous firms for aggregate fluctuations. First, we document six novel empirical facts using microdata that suggest the existence of important technological synergies between trading firms, the presence of positive assortative matching among firms, and their evolution during the business cycle. Next, we embed technological synergies in a general equilibrium model calibrated on firm-level data. We show that frictions in forming trading relationships and separation costs explain imperfect sorting between firms in equilibrium. In particular, an increase in the volatility of idiosyncratic productivity shocks significantly decreases aggregate output without resorting to non-convex adjustment costs. |
| Keywords: | Technological synergies, heterogeneous firms, idiosyncratic uncertainty |
| JEL: | C63 C68 C78 E32 E37 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2412&r=dge |
| By: | Takuma Kunieda; Akihisa Shibata |
| Abstract: | Although many studies in macroeconomics have examined the role of insurance in the presence of income risk, whether aggregate shocks are insurable has not been sufficiently investigated. We present a simple two-period general equilibrium model to show the conditions under which insurance against aggregate shocks works in an economy with constant-elasticity-substitution (CES) production technology and the Greenwood- Hercowitz-Huffman (GHH) utility function (Greenwood et al., 1988). Our theoretical investigation clarifies that only when agents are heterogeneous in their ability or initial wealth can aggregate shocks be insurable. From our quantitative investigation, we find that (i) agents with lower ability enjoy greater welfare improvement from insurance, and as agents’ ability increases, the welfare improvement diminishes, (ii) agents enjoy greater welfare improvement when the damage from disasters is more severe and when the frequency of disasters is greater, and (iii) although the welfare improvement increases as agents’ initial wealth increases, the impact of a difference in agents’ initial wealth on the difference in the contribution of insurance is very moderate. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1239&r=dge |
| By: | Jun Hee Kwak (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul, Korea) |
| Abstract: | I build a dynamic quantitative model in which both firms and the government can default. Rising endogenous corporate debt increases sovereign default risk, as tax revenues are expected to decrease. Externalities arise because it can be privately optimal but socially suboptimal for firms to default given their limited liability, rationalizing macroprudential interventions in corporate debt markets. I propose a set of such optimal policies that reduce the number of defaulting firms, increase fiscal space, and boost household consumption during financial crises. Contrary to conventional wisdom, countercyclical debt policy can be counterproductive, as the countercyclical policy induces more firmdefaults. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Debt, Corporate Debt, Default, Macroprudential Policy, Externalities |
| JEL: | F34 F38 F41 E44 E61 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgo:wpaper:2306&r=dge |
| By: | Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard (Univ. Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69007 Lyon, France); Xavier Raurich (xavier.raurich@ub.edu); Thomas Seegmuller (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France. 5 Boulevard Maurice Bourdet CS 50498 F-13205 Marseille cedex 1, France) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide a simple framework to show the existence of stationary bubbles on dividend-yielding financial assets. These bubbles are compatible with a positive stationary fundamental value, rather than requiring its collapse in the long run. This result is obtained in an exchange overlapping generations economy with vintage financial assets that depreciate over time. New assets are introduced in each period, ensuring a constant aggregate supply of financial assets. Depreciation introduces a gap between the return of bubbles and the rate at which the dividends are discounted. Because the return of bubble can be lower or equal to the growth rate, we can have stationary equilibria with both a positive bubble and a positive fundamental value. Finally, our framework also allows us to discuss the role of the substitutability between financial assets on the level of bubbles and fundamental values. |
| Keywords: | Rational bubbles, financial assets, fundamental value |
| JEL: | E21 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2404&r=dge |
| By: | Alessandro Moro (Bank of Italy); Valerio Nispi Landi (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We examine the global implications of carbon taxation using a two-country environmental DSGE model, with a specific focus on the strategic interactions between countries, the case for cooperation, and the impact on the balance of payments. From a normative perspective, we show that, assuming a convex disutility of pollution, carbon taxes are strategic substitutes across countries: when one country increases carbon taxation, the other country finds it optimal to reduce it. From a positive perspective, a country imposing unilateral carbon taxation experiences a reduction in its production, a decrease in its interest rates, a depreciation of its currency on impact and an appreciation thereafter, higher debt, and equity outflows to the rest of the world. |
| Keywords: | carbon tax, climate change, capital flows, international policy transmission, DSGE |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F41 F42 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1445_24&r=dge |
| By: | Christopher J. Erceg; Marcin Kolasa; Jesper Lindé; Mr. Haroon Mumtaz; Pawel Zabczyk |
| Abstract: | We study alternative approaches to the withdrawal of prolonged unconventional monetary stimulus (“exit strategies”) by central banks in large, advanced economies. We first show empirically that large-scale asset purchases affect the exchange rate and domestic and foreign term premiums more strongly than conventional short-term policy rate changes when normalizing by the effects on domestic GDP. We then build a two-country New Keynesian model that features segmented bond markets, cognitive discounting and strategic complementarities in price setting that is consistent with these findings. The model implies that quantitative easing (QE) is the only effective way to provide monetary stimulus when policy rates are persistently constrained by the effective lower bound, and that QE is likely to have larger domestic output effects than quantitative tightening (QT). We demonstrate that “exit strategies” by large advanced economies that rely heavily on QT can trigger sizeable inflation-output tradeoffs in foreign recipient economies through the exchange rate and term premium channels. We also show that these tradeoffs are likely to be stronger in emerging market economies, especially those with fixed exchange rates. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; International Spillovers |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/073&r=dge |
| By: | Fernando Arce; Jan Morgan; Nicolas Werquin |
| Abstract: | Protests and fiscal crises often coincide, with complex causal dynamics at play. We examine the interaction between tax revolts and sovereign risk using a quantitative structural model calibrated to Argentina during the Macri administration (2015-2019). In the model, the government can be controlled by political parties with different preferences for redistribution. Households may opt to revolt in response to the fiscal policies of the ruler. While revolts entail economic costs, they also increase the likelihood of political turnover. Our model mirrors the data by generating political crises concurrent with fiscal turmoil. We find that left-leaning parties are more prone to default, while right-leaning parties sustain higher debt levels. Revolts impact default risk through two channels. First, political crises can increase sovereign risk by facilitating transitions from right-wing to left-wing administrations that culminate in default. Second, the threat of frequent revolts during default periods can deter the government and increase commitment. In our calibration, the latter channel dominates the former with revolts operating as an endogenous default cost. Relative to a model without revolts, our framework can sustain higher levels of debt and reduce the frequency of defaults. |
| Keywords: | Financial crises; Sovereign default; Redistribution |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:98008&r=dge |
| By: | Garrett Anstreicher |
| Abstract: | I study how recessions impact the human capital of young adults and how these effects vary over the parent income gradient. Using a novel confidential linked survey dataset from U.S. Census, I document that the negative effects of worse local unemployment shocks on educational attainment are strongly concentrated among middle-class children, with losses in parental home equity being potentially important mechanisms. To probe the aggregate implications of these findings and assess policy implications, I develop a model of selection into college and life-cycle earnings that comprises endogenous parental transfers for education, multiple schooling options, and uncertainty in post-graduation employment outcomes. Simulating a recession in the model produces a “hollowing out the middle” in lifecycle earnings in the aggregate, and educational borrowing constraints play a key role in this result. Counterfactual policies to expand college access in response to the recession can mitigate these effects but struggle to be cost effective. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-15&r=dge |
| By: | Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia; Mr. Waikei R Lam; Anh D. M. Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Managing the climate transition presents policymakers with a tradeoff between achieving climate goals, fiscal sustainability, and political feasibility, which calls for a fiscal balancing act with the right mix of policies. This paper develops a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the fiscal impacts of various climate policy packages aimed at reaching net zero emissions by mid-century. Our simulations show that relying primarily on spending measures to deliver on climate ambitions will be costly, possibly raising debt by 45-50 percent of GDP by 2050. However, a balanced mix of carbon-pricing and spending-based policies can deliver on net zero with a much smaller fiscal cost, limiting the increase in public debt to 10-15 percent of GDP by 2050. Carbon pricing is central not only as an effective tool for emissions reduction but also as a revenue source. Delaying carbon pricing action could increase costs, especially if less effective measures are scaled up to meet climate targets. Technology spillovers can reduce the costs but bottlenecks in green investment could unwind the gains and slow the transition. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; mitigation; public debt; carbon pricing; subsidies; public investment; industrial policies; dynamic general equilibrium. |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/071&r=dge |
| By: | Christiaan van der Kwaak (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | High levels of government debt raise the question to what extent the private sector will be willing to absorb the additional government debt that would finance future fiscal stimuli. One alternative is to money-finance such stimuli by letting the central bank buy the additional bonds and permanently retain these on its balance sheet. In this paper, I investigate the effectiveness of such money-financed fiscal stimuli when the central bank pays interest on reserves, and focus on the case where reserves and bonds are not perfect substitutes. I show for several New Keynesian models that money-financed fiscal stimuli have zero macroeconomic impact with respect to debt-financed stimuli, despite reducing funding costs for the consolidated government. Finally, I investigate the quantitative impact of money-financed fiscal stimuli for an extension where this 'irrelevance result' is broken, and find that the impact is substantially smaller than in the literature. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Monetary-Fiscal Interactions, Monetary financing |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2417&r=dge |
| By: | Lukas Schmid (Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Vytautas Valaitis (University of Surrey); Alessandro T. Villa (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | Can governments use Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) to tame inflation? We propose a novel framework of optimal debt management with sticky prices and a government issuing nominal and real state-uncontingent bonds. Nominal debt can be monetized giving ex-ante flexibility, whereas real bonds are cheaper but constitute a commitment ex-post. Under Full Commitment, the government chooses a leveraged and volatile portfolio of nominal liabilities and real assets to use inflation to smooth taxes. With No Commitment, it reduces borrowing costs ex-ante using a stable real debt share strategically to prevent future governments from monetizing debt ex-post. Such policies rationalize the small and persistent real debt share in U.S. data, with higher TIPS shares effectively curbing inflation. Reducing future governments’ temptation to monetize debt renders debt and inflation endogenously sticky. |
| Keywords: | Optimal Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Debt Management, TIPS, Incomplete Markets, Inflation, Limited Commitment, Time-consistency, Markov-perfect Equilibria |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2413&r=dge |
| By: | Nezih Guner (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Ezgi Kaya (Cardiff University); Virginia Sánchez Marcos (Universidad de Cantabria) |
| Abstract: | Among high-income countries, fertility rates differ significantly, with some experiencing total fertility rates as low as 1 to 1.3 children per woman. However, the reasons behind low fertility rates are not well understood. We show that uncertainty created by dual labor markets, the coexistence of temporary and open-ended contracts, and the inflexibility of work schedules are crucial to understanding low fertility. Using rich administrative data from the Spanish Social Security records, we document that temporary contracts are associated with a lower probability of first birth. With Time Use data, we also show that women with children are less likely to work in jobs with split-shift schedules. Such jobs have a long break in the middle of the day, and present a concrete example of inflexible work arrangements and fixed time cost of work. We then build a life-cycle model in which married women decide whether to work, how many children to have, and when to have them. Reforms that eliminate duality or split-shift schedules increase women’s labor force participation and reduce the employment gap between mothers and non-mothers. They also increase fertility for women who are employed. Reforming these labor market institutions and providing childcare subsidies would increase the completed fertility of married women to 1.8 children. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, labor market institutions, temporary contracts, split-shift schedules, childcare subsidies. |
| JEL: | E24 J13 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2024_2407&r=dge |
| By: | James Graham; Robert A McDowall |
| Abstract: | We study consumption spending responses to predictable income using household-level data from a U.S. financial institution. Even for households with large liquid asset balances, we find no spending in anticipation of income receipt, substantial spending following receipt, and significant front-loading with respect to date of receipt. To rationalize these findings, we develop a tractable model of mental accounts where consumption choices are partitioned across current income and current assets. Our model reproduces the timing, magnitude, and cross-section of consumption responses observed in the data. Finally, we use the model to study the effectiveness of targeted and untargeted fiscal stimulus policies. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, MPC, excess sensitivity, mental accounts, fi scal stimulus. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2024-07&r=dge |
| By: | Jess Benhabib; Feng Dong; Pengfei Wang; Zhenyang Xu |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of self-fulfilling default cycles with demand externality a la Dixit- Stiglitz to explain the recurrent clustered defaults observed in the data. The literature reports that observable fundamental factors alone are insufficient to explain the cluster. A decline in aggregate output reduces the value of firms and increases their probability of default. As defaults take more firms out of production, aggregate output declines further, creating a positive feedback loop that generates multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling default cycles. Our global analysis using Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation reveals the existence of multiple or even infinite paths that satisfy all equilibrium conditions. Moreover, a family of periodic orbits can emerge in the perfect foresight equilibrium. Our model is consistent with the view that business cycles arise largely because the economy’s internal forces tend to endogenously generate cyclical mechanisms (Beaudry et al., 2020). |
| JEL: | E22 E32 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32291&r=dge |
| By: | Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; Goensch, Johannes |
| Abstract: | Recent research documents mounting evidence for sizable and persistent biases in individual labor market expectations. This paper incorporates subjective expectations into a general equilibrium labor market model and analytically studies the implications of biased expectations for wage bargaining, vacancy creation, worker flows and labor market policies. Importantly, we find that the specific assumption about the frequency of wage bargaining crucially shapes the propagation mechanism through which expectation biases affect bargained wages and equilibrium outcomes. Moreover, we show that the presence of biased beliefs can qualitatively alter the equilibrium effects of labor market policies. Lastly, when allowing for biased firms' beliefs, we establish that only the difference between firms' and workers' biases matters for the bargained wage but not the size of biases. |
| Abstract: | Jüngste Forschungsergebnisse belegen eine deutliche und persistente Verzerrung individueller Arbeitsmarkterwartungen. In diesem Papier werden subjektive Erwartungen in ein allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell des Arbeitsmarktes eingebunden und die Auswirkungen von verzerrten Erwartungen auf Lohnverhandlungen, die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen, Arbeitnehmerströme und die Arbeitsmarktpolitik analytisch untersuch. Als besonders wichtig für den Propagationsmechanismus von Arbeitsmarkterwartungen auf Löhne stellt sich die Frequenz von Lohnverhandlungen heraus. Darüber hinaus ist der Unterschied in verzerrten Erwartungen zwischen Unternehmen und Arbeitnehmer wichtiger für den ausgehandelten Lohn als der Umfang der Verzerrungen selbst. Darüber hinaus zeigen wir, dass verzerrte Erwartungen die Gleichgewichtseffekte arbeitsmarktpolitischer Maßnahmen qualitativ verändern kann. |
| Keywords: | Subjective expectations, labor markets, search and matching, bargaining, policy |
| JEL: | E24 J64 D84 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:287765&r=dge |