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on Dynamic General Equilibrium |
| By: | Benoît Campagne; Aurélien Poissonnier |
| Abstract: | The evaluation of fiscal and structural reforms has become not only a standard but indispensable exercise in the DSGE literature and in the policy-making publications and reports. Institutions such as the IMF, the European Commission, the OECD, the ECB, and many central banks have now developed and refined their own tools and are capable of conducting such analyses in different contexts. The effects of structural reforms have been documented by D'Auria et al. (2009) for EU member states and for Italy by Annicchiarico et al. (2013) both in the R&D version of the Quest III model. The IMF or the OECD have also conducted their own evaluations for Europe (Bayoumi et al., 2004; Everaert and Schule, 2006,2008; Cacciatore et al., 2012). Fiscal reforms or consolidation have also been assessed through DSGE models. In the European context some work were conducted on the Quest III model (Vogel, 2012). Coenen et al. (2008) investigate labor tax reforms in the New Area Wide Model (NAWM). Clinton et al. (2011) provide similar insights in the case of an international model (GIMF). Coenen et al. (2012) give an extensive review of the size of fiscal multipliers in the main institutional models. The recurrence and the systematic use of DSGEs today therefore raises the question of their actual capabilities. Whereas their qualitative behaviours have largely improved and now properly describe economic data, their quantitative accuracy is still debated among economists (see for instance Schorfheide (2011) for a summary of current DSGE weaknesses). We use the two country DSGE model of the Euro area MELEZE developed at Insee to shed a new light on two standard exercises: structural and fiscal reforms evaluations. The main features of the model compare with standard tools developed in international institutions and central banks: nominal and wage rigidities, capital adjustment cost, and both Ricardian and non-Ricardian consumers. We study the dependency of fiscal and structural simulations' results to various specifications in our DSGE model. Within a range of feasible calibrations for the elasticities in the utility function, the share of non Ricardian consumers, and among other sensitivity tests, the analysis focuses on short and long term multipliers of both fiscal and structural reforms. We also rank policy schemes based on welfare analyses along the transitional paths. The model MELEZE used in this paper features the standard modeling choices of the two country monetary union literature. The core of the model for each country is inspired by Christiano et al. (2005) and Smets and Wouter (2003, 2005, 2007): firms and consumers maximize their objective (utility or profit) by interacting on the goods, labor and capital markets with both prices and wages rigidities introducing neo-Keynesian features in the model à la Erceg et al. (2000). The model also integrates risk free assets to ensure an intertemporal trade-off and real rigidities on the capital market. In addition, our model builds on academic works studying monetary and fiscal policies in monetary unions Gali and Monacelli (2008), Benigno (2004) by introducing capital markets. We also introduce non Ricardian households as advocated by Mankiw (2000), a feature which is crucial for the reaction of private consumption to public spending (Gali et al. 2007), and therefore a priori crucial to the size of fiscal multipliers. We compare this mechanism with Edgeworth complementarity as advocated by Fève and Sahuc (2013). Moreover, we introduce in our model public and private debts exchanged on a union wide financial market both at steady state and out of equilibrium. Holding debt or asset is motivated by agents' preferences for the present and comes at a financial intermediation cost embodied through a debt elastic premium. We explicit and micro-found this financial intermediation service by introducing a financial intermediation sector. Beyond public debt, the government uses public spending to stimulate and monitor economic activity. It can also exogenously modify its fiscal policy along different axes: lump-sum transfers and taxes on consumption, labor, capital income or dividends. As detailed below, we depart from traditional budget rules behaviors used in the literature, and derive a forward-looking optimizing behavior for the government. All these modeling elements are generally embedded in large scale models developed in central banks and international institutions among which are GEM at the IMF (Bayoumi et al., 2004), NAWM at the ECB (Coenen et al., 2008) or in open economy EAGLE (Gomes et al., 2012), QUEST III at the European Commission (Ratto et al., 2009) and its R&D version (Roeger et al., 2008). Whereas these models sometimes also consider both tradable and non-tradable goods, heterogeneous agents on the labor market, or endogenous growth, we choose to simplify our model and do not consider these additions. The outcome is a model tractable enough to be fully linearized by hand. We are also able to solve for the steady state for the real variables in levels and carefully account for all the steady state restrictions imposed on the parameters of the model. We replicate three different settings: France against the rest of the Eurozone, Italy against the rest of the Eurozone, and a symmetric calibration for the Euro area as a closed economy. In a first section, we study the long-term impact of mark-up reforms in both the labor and goods markets. Even in the absence of entry costs, wage bargaining and an endogenous determination of the number of firms as in Blanchard and Giavazzi (2003), our results compare with stylized facts obtained in their model. Moreover and numerically, reforms simulation as conducted in Everaert and Schule (2006) indicates that the absence of additional rigidities and of a distinction between tradable and non-tradable goods may overestimate the long-term gains from pro-competitive reforms. More importantly, even though the stylized facts behind such reforms are robust, they increase output level at steady state, their quantification is uncertain. Within a range of feasible calibrations for the elasticities in the utility function, the effect of a structural reform can be magnified threefold. Similarly, the introduction of non Ricardian agents amplifies the gains from deregulation up to a doubling factor. In a second section, we study the effect of temporary or permanent fiscal reforms. We simulate increases in public spending, transfers or decreases in various tax rates calibrated to 1% of pre-stimulus output. The resulting fiscal multipliers are compared to the main existing DSGE models based on the results provided in Coenen et al. (2012), and to the French macroeconometric model Mésange developed at Insee (Klein and Simon, 2010). We find that our model gives comparable multipliers for temporary shocks but highlight that these measures of the fiscal multipliers crucially depend on their timing and the way both fiscal and monetary authorities commit or react to the stimulus. In particular, the modeling of government spending, usually introduced through an ad hoc spending rule, can imply fiscal multipliers larger or smaller than one. We compare these results with an alternative modeling of governments' behavior. Actually, we depart from ad hoc fiscal or budget rules traditionally introduced in quantitative models to endogenise public spending and tax rates to ensure governments' solvency (Bayoumi et al., 2004; Coenen et al., 2008; Ratto et al. 2009 ; Corsetti et al., 2009). We consider governments that maximize their stream of spending in a forward-looking way, closely equivalent to a Euler equation for households. In the end, public spending fiscal multipliers can range from 0.7 to 1.3 depending on the specification of the governments' spending rule and of the monetary environment. Cuts on distorting tax rates provides lower multipliers, that turn out to be even negative in the absence of government commitment for cuts in corporate income taxes and labor income taxes. Coordination across countries leads to increased fiscal multipliers. In response to permanent spending shocks financed though lump-sum transfers, our model provides weaker long-term multipliers yet comparable to Coenen et al. (2012) results. This weaker response stems from the negative wealth effect implied by the necessary financing fall in transfers. In all, our results raise questions on the ability for current quantitative DSGE models to provide accurate quantitative estimates for economic policies. In the conduct of policy analysis, one should therefore be very cautious to properly assess the dependency of the results to the specification of the model, and provide detailed sensitivity tests. Ongoing developments to be included in this paper include: a. Studying the transitional dynamic of structural reforms b. Ranking policy schemes based on welfare analyses along the transitional paths c. Stronger justification of the government’s behavior by the introduction of government spending in households’ utility function. |
| Keywords: | Euro Area, France, Italy, General equilibrium modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8482&r=dge |
| By: | Eleni Iliopulos (University of Evry and CEPREMAP); François Langot (University of Le Mans (GAINS-TEPP & IRA), Paris School of Economics and IZA); Thepthida Sopraseuth (University of Cergy Pontoise (THEMA) and CEPREMAP) |
| Abstract: | We study the welfare costs of business cycles in a search and matching model with financial frictions à la Kiyotaki & Moore (1997). We investigate the mechanisms that allow the model to replicate the volatility on labor and financial markets. Business cycle costs are sizable and asymmetric. This result is not trivial because the introduction of financial frictions does not per se always dampen welfare. Indeed, when credit costs are counter-cyclical and very responsive to productivity shocks, firms could benefit so much from the fall in hiring costs that the average job finding rate lies above its steady state value. |
| Keywords: | Welfare, business cycle, financial friction, labor market search |
| JEL: | E32 J64 G21 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:17-02&r=dge |
| By: | Robert Kollmann |
| Abstract: | The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-tradedgood, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are highly correlated internationally. The model assumes recursive intertemporal preferences (Epstein-Zin-Weil), and a muted response of labor hours to household wealth changes (due to Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman period utility and demand-determined employment under rigid wages). Recursive intertemporal preferences magnify the terms of trade response to country-specific shocks. Hence, a productivity (and GDP) increase in a given country triggers a strong improvement of the foreign country’s terms of trade, which raises foreign labor demand. With a muted labor wealth effect, foreign labor and GDP rise, i.e. domestic and foreign real activity comove positively. |
| Keywords: | international business cycle synchronization; recursive preferences; trade; real exchange; wealth effect on labor supply |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F36 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/248464&r=dge |
| By: | Ryan Chahrour (Boston College); Robert Ulbricht (Toulouse School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology to estimate DSGE models with incomplete information, free of parametric restrictions on information structures. First, we define a “primal” economy in which deviations from full information are captured by wedges in agents’ equilibrium expectations. Second, we provide implementability conditions, which ensure the existence of an information structure that implements these wedges. We apply the approach to estimate a New Keynesian model in which firms, households and the monetary authority have dispersed information about business conditions and productivity is the only aggregate fundamental. The estimated model fits the data remarkably well, with informational shocks able to account for the majority of U.S. business cycles. Output is driven mainly by household sentiments, whereas firm errors largely determine inflation. Our estimation indicates that firms and the central bank learn the aggregate state of the economy quickly, while household confusion about aggregate conditions is sizable and persistent. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, dispersed information, DSGE models, primal approach, sentiments |
| JEL: | E32 D84 |
| Date: | 2017–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:925&r=dge |
| By: | Jordi Galí |
| Abstract: | I develop an extension of the basic New Keynesian model with overlapping generations of finitely-lived agents. In contrast with the standard model, the proposed framework allows for the existence of rational expectations equilibria featuring asset price bubbles. I examine the conditions under which bubbly equilibria may emerge and the implications for the design of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy rules, stabilization policies, asset price volatility |
| JEL: | E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1561&r=dge |
| By: | Martin Barbie (University of Cologne); Marten Hillebrand (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz) |
| Abstract: | Bubbly Markov Equilibria (BME) are recursive equilibria on the natural state space which admit a non-trivial bubble. The present paper studies the existence and properties of BME in a general class of overlapping generations (OLG) economies with capital accumulation and stochastic production shocks. Using monotone methods, we develop a general approach to construct Markov equilibria and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for these equilibria to be bubbly. Our main result shows that a BME exists whenever the bubbleless equilibrium is Pareto inefficient either due to overaccumulation of capital or inefficient risksharing between generations. |
| Keywords: | Asset Bubbles, Stochastic OLG, Production, Markov Equilibria, Pareto Optimality. |
| JEL: | C62 D51 E32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:1703&r=dge |
| By: | Hafedh Bouakez (Department of Applied Economics and CIRPEE, HEC Montréal); Michel Guillard (EPEE, Université d’Evry Val d’Essonne); Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup (DEEP, HEC Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | We study the effectiveness of public investment in stimulating an economy stuck in a liquidity trap. We do so in the context of a tractable new-Keynesian economy in which a fraction of government spending increases the stock of public capital subject to a time-to-build constraint. Public investment projects typically entail significant time-to-build delays, which often span several years from approval to completion. We show that this feature implies that the spending multiplier associated with public investment can be substantially large — nearly twice as large as the multiplier associated with public consumption — in a liquidity trap. Intuitively, when the time to build is sufficiently long, and to the extent that public capital raises the marginal productivity of private inputs, the resulting disinflationary effect will occur after the economy has escaped from the liquidity trap. At the same time, the increase in households’ expected wealth amplifies aggregate demand while the economy is still in the liquidity trap. Using a mediumscale model extended to allow for the accumulation of public capital, we quantify the multiplier associated with the spending component of the 2009’s ARRA, which allocated roughly 40% of the authorized funds to public investment. We find a peak multiplier of 2.31. Our results also indicate that failing to account for the composition of the stimulus by overlooking its investment component would lead one to underestimate the spending multiplier by about 50%. |
| Keywords: | Public spending, Public investment, Time to build, Multiplier, Zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E4 E52 E62 H54 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:16-09&r=dge |
| By: | Lozej, Matija (Central Bank of Ireland); Rannenberg, Ansgar (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | We use the Central Bank of Ireland’s DSGE model to investigate the introduction of regulatory loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios in the mortgage market in 2015, which form part of the Central Bank’s macroprudential measures. The main finding is that while the measures dampen economic activity in the short run, they bring benefits in the medium and long run. Household leverage declines, which lowers the default rate on bank loans. The economy as a whole deleverages and foreign debt decreases significantly. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:ecolet:04/el/17&r=dge |
| By: | HOHBERGER, Stefan; PRIFTIS, Romanos; VOGEL, Lukas |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the ECB's quantitative easing programme using an open-economy DSGE model estimated with Bayesian techniques. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Shock decompositions suggest a positive contribution of ECB QE to EA year-on-year output growth and inflation of up to 0.4 and 0.5 pp in the standard linearized version of the model. Allowing for an occasionally binding zero-bound constraint by using piecewise linear solution techniques raises the positive impact up to 1.0 and 0.7 pp, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative easing; Portfolio rebalancing; Bayesian estimation; Open-economy DSGE model; Real GDP |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E53 F41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2017/04&r=dge |
| By: | Kevin x.d. Huang (Vanderbilt University); Qinglai Meng (Oregon State University); Jianpo Xue (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (1997) demonstrate that a balanced-budget fiscal policy can induce aggregate instability unrelated to economic fundamentals. The empirical relevance of this result has been challenged by subsequent studies. In this paper we show, both analytically and numerically, that such extrinsic instability is an empirically robust plausibility associated with a balanced-budget rule once endogenous capital utilization is taken into consideration. This suggests that the design or operation of a balanced-budget fiscal policy must recognize that it may constitute a practical source of self-fulfilling prophecies and belief-driven fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Balanced-budget rules, Income taxes, Public debt, Capital utilization, Consumption taxes, Sunspots, Self-fulfilling expectations, Indeterminacy |
| JEL: | E3 E6 |
| Date: | 2017–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-17-00005&r=dge |
| By: | Chu, Angus C.; Cozzi, Guido; Furukawa, Yuichi; Liao, Chih-Hsing |
| Abstract: | This study develops a Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous entry of heterogeneous firms to analyze the effects of monetary policy on economic growth via a cash-in-advance constraint on R&D investment. Our results can be summarized as follows. In the special case of a zero entry cost, an increase in the nominal interest rate decreases R&D, the arrival rate of innovations and economic growth as in previous studies. However, in the general case of a positive entry cost, an increase in the nominal interest rate affects the distribution of innovations that are implemented and would have an inverted-U effect on economic growth if the entry cost is sufficiently large. We also calibrate the model to aggregate data of the US economy and find that the growth-maximizing inflation rate is about 3%, which is consistent with recent empirical estimates. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, inflation, economic growth, heterogeneous firms |
| JEL: | E41 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77543&r=dge |
| By: | Elena Del Rey; Maria Racionero; Jose I. Silva |
| Abstract: | We introduce parental leave policies in a labour search and matching model and study the e¤ect of leave duration on unemployment and wages. We show that the e¤ects are ambiguous and depend on whether the ratio of wage bargaining power of employer relative to worker is higher or lower than the ratio of the net value of the leave for employer relative to worker. Our theoretical results suggest that simulated labour market outcomes in search and matching models may be sensitive to the calibration of key parameters that we identify. |
| Keywords: | noncooperative game, aggregate game, con?ict, appropriation |
| JEL: | E24 J38 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:dpaper:698&r=dge |
| By: | Nuno Coimbra; Hélène Rey |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic macroeconomic model with heterogeneous financial intermediaries and endogenous entry. It features time-varying endogenous macroeconomic risk that arises from the risk-shifting behaviour of financial intermediaries combined with entry and exit. We show that when interest rates are high, a decrease in interest rates stimulates investment and increases financial stability. In contrast, when interest rates are low, further stimulus can increase systemic risk and induce a fall in the risk premium through increased risk-shifting. In this case, the monetary authority faces a trade-off between stimulating the economy and financial stability. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23245&r=dge |
| By: | Sirin Saracoglu |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of various macroeconomic and labor market policy changes in an economy with an informal sector and significant informal employment, defined as employment which does not abide with labor market regulations, including minimum wage and social security laws. It has been documented in the literature that foreign trade liberalization reforms expose domestic firms to increased foreign competition, leading them to seek ways to cut back production costs, most notably labor costs. Cutting labor costs can be accomplished in one of three ways, including laying off workers (who subsequently look for employment in the informal sector); cutting down or eliminating worker benefits, putting the workers in informally employed or unregistered status; or establishing subcontracting relationships with smaller scale firms which already employ workers informally. In this paper, we concentrate on the first two effects. The effects of increased exposure to foreign competition (in the form of lowered tariffs and subsidies) are examined in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with three sectors including an informal sector, a formal sector, an agricultural sector, and a segmented labor market. Additionally, as the timing of domestic labor market policies stimulating flexible employment may coincide with that of trade reforms, we also explore the effects of changes in minimum wage and in social security tax rates, on the allocation of labor in different sectors, as well as the effects on the informal wage.In this paper we utilize a multi-sector Ramsey growth model to observe the dyamics of the baseline economy, and conduct comparative statics with respect to policy experiments at the steady state. In the theoretical model, we examine a small open economy with three production sectors. The production sectors included in the model economy are the agricultural sector, the informal sector and the formal sector. The primary objective in constructing the theoretical model is to analyze the linkages between the formal and informal sectors as capital accumulates and as the economy grows through time. The linkages between these two sectors materialize through the workings of the labor market. The secondary objective is to observe the changes in the production sectors as the economy exposes its markets to increased foreign competition and labor market policy changes. In the model economy, in addition to three production sectors, there are three economic agents: the producer, the household and the government. The production takes place using four production factors: capital, skilled labor, unskilled labor, and land. The household owns all production factors, and generates income from renting them. The formal sector utilizes capital, unskilled labor and skilled labor in production, and produces a traded good which is both an investment and a consumption good. The informal sector uses capital and unskilled labor in production, and produces a non-traded consumption good. The agricultural sector rents land and hires unskilled labor in production, and produces a traded pure consumption good. Although foreign trade of goods are allowed in the model, there is no international mobility in labor and capital. Within the economy, capital is perfectly mobile across all sectors, while the labor market is segmented. Land can be rented in and out only within the agricultural sector. Finally, the government only serves to collect taxes and tariffs, and distribute subsidies and transfers, and has no consumption and investment behavior.Conducting the comparative statics with respect to formal sector subsidies (lowering subsidies to formal sector in the context of liberalization policies) leads to a lower informal output, lower informal wages, lower allocation of unskilled labor in both sectors (formal and informal), but a higher allocation of skilled labor in the formal sector, therefore a higher formal output, and thus a higher overall income in the economy. A devaluation of the domestic currency will have the opposite effects, therefore the task of the policymaker is to find an optimal balance between lowering subsidies in the formal sector, and encouraging formal sector production through a devaluation of the domestic currency. An increase in the minimum wage, on the other hand, creates opposite effects to lowering subsidies, but similar effects with a devaluation of domestic currency: a rise in the minimum wage decreases informal wages, encourages use of unskilled labor in the informal sector, discourages use of unskilled labor in the formal sector, to be substituted by an increase in the use of skilled labor in the formal sector, and raising production there. We can say that the increase in the minimum wage would raise the gap bwetween the wages of the unskilled in the formal sector and the unskilled in the informal sector, rendering the informally employed even more disadvantaged in the labor market. In terms of the dynamic solution of the model, we observe that as capital accumulates and the income grows over time, the formal sector producer shifts from formal skilled labor to formal unskilled labor as the skilled labor wages increase, and as the formal skilled labor wages remain constant at the minimum wage. As the economy progresses over time and informal wages increase, the unskilled labor in the agricultural sector leaves this sector, to be employed in the informal sector, raising output there. Therefore in transition and in the long run, we observe a movement of unskilled labor out of agriculture into the informal sector. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, General equilibrium modeling, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8603&r=dge |
| By: | Gasteiger, Emanuel; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | We analyze the long-run growth effects of automation in the standard overlap- ping generations framework. We show that, in contrast to other neoclassical models of capital accumulation, automation does not promote growth but induces economic stagnation. The reason is that automation suppresses wages, which are the only source of investment in the overlapping generations framework. |
| Keywords: | automation,robots,investment,stagnation,economic growth,overlapping generations model |
| JEL: | J10 J20 O14 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:072017&r=dge |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | In this paper we introduce reciprocity in labor relations and government sector to investigate how well the real wage rigidity that results out of that arrangement ex- plains business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria. The reciprocity mechanism described in this paper follows Danthine and Kurmann (2010) and is generally consistent with micro-studies, e.g. Lozev et all. (2011) and Paskaleva (2016), while at the same time comes into contrast with models with efficiency wages of no-shirking type that empha- size the importance of aggregate labor market conditions as the main determinant in wage setting, e.g. Vasilev (2017). Rent-sharing considerations, and worker's own past wages turn out to be the most important aspects of how labor contracting happens. In contrast, aggregate economic conditions, as captured by the employment rate, are not found to be quantitatively important for wage dynamics. Overall, the model with reciprocity and fiscal policy performs well vis-a-vis data, especially along the labor market dimension, and in addition dominates the market-clearing labor market frame- work featured in the standard RBC model, e.g Vasilev (2009). |
| Keywords: | reciprocity,efficiency wages,general equilibrium,gift exchange,fiscal policy,Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:156164&r=dge |