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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Shahzad, Qaisar; Aruga, Kentaka |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the critical issue of climate change awareness in Pakistan by evaluating the Pakistani citizens’ willingness to adopt energy reforms to reduce CO2 emissions. Using best-worst scaling, we examined five key attributes important for reforming the Pakistan energy policy: CO2 emission reduction, energy independence, employment impact, transition time, and changes in energy price. The findings reveal a strong preference for reducing CO2 emissions, enhancing energy independence, increasing employment, and accelerating policy implementation. Meanwhile, Pakistan residents revealed concerns about potential increases in energy bills. The analysis showed that male, urban, educated, full-time employed, middle-aged (35-44), married individuals with children, high-income, and environmentally conscious respondents were more willing to trade-off for CO2 reduction. In contrast, apprehension about potential job losses and higher energy bills was prevalent across all subgroups. The study recommends diversifying energy sources, including nuclear and hydro-energy, as a strategic approach to balance environmental goals with economic stability in Pakistan. These insights into public energy policy preferences can inform policymakers and researchers in similar developing countries of sustainable energy strategies. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emission, Unemployment, Trade-off, Energy reform |
| JEL: | Q4 Q48 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124119 |
| By: | Kryszak, Łukasz; Czyżewski, Bazyli; Sapa, Agnieszka; Lucasenco, Eugenia |
| Abstract: | The expansion of conservation tillage helps to improve soil health in countries affected by the soil erosion, such as the Republic of Moldova. The main objective of this paper was to investigate Moldovan farmers’ preferences for the hypothetical policy scheme designed to promote conservation tillage in the framework of a discrete choice experiment. The heterogeneity of farmers' preferences was explained using the latent concept of a sense of intergenerational commitments (IC) via a hybrid choice model. We found that farmers are reluctant to adopt more advanced forms of conservation tillage (such as zero tillage) and prefer to choose minimum tillage. They positively value financial support (both direct payments and investment subsidies), while the availability of advisory support is not the key factor. We also found that farmers with greater sense of IC have less negative attitudes toward zero tillage and put less positive value on monetary aspects. It seems that these farmers are more driven by moral obligations to society and are less dependent on external support. Policy makers should continue to develop financial incentives to promote conservation agriculture practices but they should also be aware of the important role of farmers and agricultural policy from a social justice perspective. |
| Keywords: | conservation agriculture; hybrid choice model; no-till; min-till; Moldova |
| JEL: | Q18 Q24 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124050 |
| By: | Buchner, Martin; Rehm, Miriam |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to understand the health effects of energy poverty in Germany using SOEP panel data from 2010 to 2020. Linear probability models and fixed effects ordered logit models reveal a consistently negative relationship of three expenditures based energy poverty indicators with general health. The association is stronger for the subjective energy poverty metric: members of households unable to keep the home comfortably warm due to financial reasons have an about 3.23 p.p. lower probability of being in at least satisfactory health. Investigating potential channels shows that mental health is consistently negatively linked to our energy poverty metrics, while physical health is weakly associated with energy poverty in Germany, with the exception of doctor visits. Finally, by instrumenting energy poverty with data on energy price indices and matching energy costs to the heating systems used by households, we show that living in a household that experiences a transition to energy poverty due to rising energy prices is also linked to a lower likelihood of being in good health. |
| Abstract: | Dieses Papier untersucht die gesundheitlichen Auswirkungen von Energiearmut in Deutschland auf Basis von Paneldaten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) für den Zeitraum 2010 bis 2020. Unter Anwendung von Linear-Probability-Modellen sowie Fixed-Effects-Ordered-Logit-Modellen zeigt sich ein robuster negativer Zusammenhang zwischen drei objektiven Indikatoren für Energiearmut und dem allgemeinen Gesundheitszustand. Besonders stark ausgeprägt ist dieser Zusammenhang bei einem subjektiven Indikator: Personen aus Haushalten, die ihre Wohnung aus finanziellen Gründen nicht angemessen warmhalten können, haben eine um 3, 23 Prozentpunkte geringere Wahrscheinlichkeit, sich in (mindestens) zufriedenstellendem Gesundheitszustand zu befinden. Eine weiterführende Analyse möglicher Wirkungsmechanismen deutet darauf hin, dass insbesondere die psychische Gesundheit negativ mit Energiearmut assoziiert ist, während sich für die körperliche Gesundheit nur schwache negative Zusammenhänge zeigen. |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty, health, fixed effects ordered logit models, Germany |
| JEL: | I10 I32 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:315487 |
| By: | Carsten Creutzburg (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Leo M. Doerr (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | This is the first study to employ a national full sample dataset for a socioeconomic analysis of the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). We use the most recent vehicle registration dataset from the Fed-eral Motor Transport Authority of Germany, which includes the entire underlying population of German vehicle owners. Combining web-scraped data covering all vehicles available in the German market with actual registration data allows a unique analysis of the individual decisions to purchase an EV. Our results suggest that financial incentives are the most relevant factor for EV adoption, with a €1, 000 subsidy in-crease boosting EV choice probability by 1.2 percentage points. Given that EVs currently constitute 12% of newly registered private vehicles in Germany, our model calculates that, in the absence of subsidies, this share would be 1.2%. In contrast, a uniform maximum subsidy of €9, 000 from 2011 to 2023 could have increased the adoption rate to 20%. These results underscore the importance of fin ancial incentives in achieving policy targets for EV adoption and suggest that purchase subsidies exhibit increasing marginal returns. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, Vehicle choice, Financial Incentives, Discrete choice |
| JEL: | Q42 R41 H23 C35 |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:081 |
| By: | Laura Brandimarte; Jerg Gutmann; Gerd Muehlheusser; Franziska Weber |
| Abstract: | We examine the trade-off between functionality and data privacy inherent in many AI products by conducting a randomized survey experiment with 1, 734 participants from the US and several European countries. Participants’ willingness to adopt a hypothetical, AI-enhanced app is measured under three sets of treatments: (i) installation defaults (opt-in vs. opt-out), (ii) salience of data privacy risks, and (iii) regulatory regimes with different levels of data protection. In addition, we study how the willingness to adopt depends on individual attitudes and preferences. We find no effect of defaults or salience, while a regulatory regime with stricter privacy protection increases the likelihood that the app is adopted. Finally, greater data privacy concerns, greater risk aversion, lower levels of trust, and greater skepticism toward AI are associated with a significantly lower willingness to adopt the app. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, privacy concerns, randomized survey experiment, smart products, technology adoption |
| JEL: | D80 D90 K24 L86 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11774 |
| By: | Khanna, Tarun M.; Danilenko, Diana; Tomberg, Lukas; Hansteen, Sven; Andor, Mark Andreas; Lohmann, Paul; Minx, Jan C. |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency is often cited as a critical component of mitigation pathways that avoid the worst effects of climate change but suffers from chronic underinvestment. This paper evaluates the efficacy of a range of voluntary approaches-monetary incentives, information and behavioral interventions-on the willingness of households to pay for energy efficient appliances, the market share of efficient appliances, and the subsequent savings in energy consumption to understand which interventions work, under what conditions, and why. We find that information provision, labeling, rebates and subsidies increase willingness to pay for efficient appliances moderately, while loans are ineffective. The effects of such interventions on market shares and associated rebound effects on energy consumption of purchase of energy-efficient appliances remain unclear given the limited evidence. Closing this should be a priority to facilitate better understanding of the role of such interventions in climate and energy policy. Real-world effects are also likely to be smaller than those reported due to study design limitations and potential reporting biases. Overall, the existing evidence does not strongly support the effectiveness of these interventions in achieving large-scale energy efficiency improvements required for decarbonization. |
| Abstract: | Energieeffizienz wird oft als kritische Komponente von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen genannt, die die schlimmsten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels vermeiden sollen, leidet aber unter chronischer Unterinvestition. In diesem Papier wird die Wirksamkeit einer Reihe freiwilliger Ansätze - monetäre Anreize, Informationen und Verhaltensmaßnahmen - auf die Bereitschaft der Haushalte, für energieeffiziente Geräte zu zahlen, den Marktanteil effizienter Geräte und die daraus resultierenden Einsparungen beim Energieverbrauch untersucht, um zu verstehen, welche Maßnahmen unter welchen Bedingungen und warum funktionieren. Wir stellen fest, dass die Bereitstellung von Informationen, die Kennzeichnung, Rabatte und Subventionen die Bereitschaft, für effiziente Geräte zu zahlen, mäßig erhöhen, während Kredite unwirksam sind. Die Auswirkungen solcher Maßnahmen auf die Marktanteile und die damit verbundenen Rebound-Effekte auf den Energieverbrauch beim Kauf energieeffizienter Geräte bleiben angesichts der begrenzten Evidenz unklar. Die Schließung dieser Lücke sollte eine Priorität sein, um ein besseres Verständnis der Rolle solcher Interventionen in der Klima- und Energiepolitik zu ermöglichen. Aufgrund von Einschränkungen beim Studiendesign und möglichen Verzerrungen bei der Berichterstattung sind die Auswirkungen in der Realität wahrscheinlich geringer als berichtet. Insgesamt sprechen die vorliegenden Erkenntnisse nicht eindeutig für die Wirksamkeit dieser Maßnahmen, wenn es darum geht, die für die Dekarbonisierung erforderlichen groß angelegten Energieeffizienzsteigerungen zu erreichen. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficiency, meta-analysis, energy conservation, behavioral interventions, economic incentives, policy instruments |
| JEL: | Q58 Q48 D11 D83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:315481 |
| By: | Yuval Salant; Jörg L. Spenkuch; David Almog |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of memory for choice behavior in unfamiliar environments. Using a unique data set, we document that decision makers exhibit a “memory premium.” They tend to choose in-memory alternatives over out-of-memory ones, even when the latter are objectively better. Consistent with well-established regularities regarding the inner workings of human memory, the memory premium is associative, subject to interference and repetition effects, and decays over time. Even as decision makers gain familiarity with the environment, the memory premium remains economically large. Our results imply that the ease with which past experiences come to mind plays an important role in shaping choice behavior. |
| Keywords: | memory, choice behaviour, decision-making, chess960 |
| JEL: | D01 D87 D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11787 |
| By: | Evsyukova, Yulia; Innocenti, Federico; Lomys, Niccolò |
| Abstract: | We study how framing interplays with information design. Whereas Sender conceives all contingencies separately, Receiver cannot initially distinguish among some of them, i.e., has a coarse frame. To influence Receiver's behavior, Sender first decides whether to refine Receiver's frame and then designs an information structure for the chosen frame. Sender faces a trade-off between keeping Receiver under the coarse frame - thus concealing part of the information structure - and re-framing - hence inducing Receiver to revise preferences and prior beliefs after telling apart initially indistinguishable contingencies. Sender benefits from re-framing if this enhances persuasion possibilities or makes persuasion unnecessary. Compared to classical information design, Receiver's frame becomes more critical than preferences and prior beliefs in shaping the optimal information structure. Although a coarse worldview may open the doors to Receiver's exploitation, re-framing can harm Receiver in practice, thus questioning the scope of disclosure policies. |
| Keywords: | Framing, Information Design, Disclosure Policies |
| JEL: | D1 D8 D9 G2 G4 M3 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312572 |
| By: | Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt; Max R. P. Grossmann |
| Abstract: | When environmental regulations are unpopular, policymakers often attribute resistance to information frictions and poor communication. We test this idea in the context of a major climate policy: Germany’s Heating Law of 2023, which mandates the phase-out of fossil fuel heating. Through a survey experiment with property owners, we examine whether providing comprehensive information about the regulation’s costs, requirements, and timeline affects adoption decisions and policy support. Despite successfully increasing factual knowledge, information provision has no significant effect on intended technology adoption, policy support, or incentivized measures of climate preferences. Instead, pre-existing environmental preferences and demographic characteristics emerge as the key predictors of responses to the regulation. A feeling that existing systems still work well and cost considerations dominate fossil fuel users’ stated reasons for non-adoption, while independence from fossil fuels and perceived contributions to the common good drive adoption among switchers. Our findings suggest that opposition to climate policy stems from fundamental preference heterogeneity rather than information frictions. This has important implications for optimal policy design, highlighting potential limits of information provision in overcoming resistance to environmental regulation. The results also speak to broader questions in political economy about the relationship between knowledge, preferences, and support for policy reform. |
| Keywords: | environmental regulation, technology adoption, information provision, political economy, climate policy |
| JEL: | D83 H31 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11759 |
| By: | Ollila, Saana (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Bratt Börjesson, Maria (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Proost, Stef (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines carbon pricing in the international shipping sector, considering that the benefits from shipping trade and the willingness to pay (WTP) for reducing carbon emissions vary among countries. Given each country’s WTP for reducing carbon emissions, we derive optimal carbon pricing for three different cooperation scenarios and numerically illustrate their welfare effects for shipping trade between five major trading blocs (treated as countries). Full global cooperation provides a benchmark for the analysis. The focus of this study is on self-enforcing bilateral agreements, where we analyze two types of agreement: one with an equal allocation of tax revenues and one with a flexible allocation of tax revenues. We show what drives cooperation and how shipping trade volumes and shipping technologies respond to the agreements. Self-enforcing bilateral agreements between the five trading blocs could reduce emissions by three to seventeen percent compared to a baseline scenario with no emission reduction policies in place. The reduction in emissions is the result of a reduction of the volume of trade and implementation of abatement technologies. The high carbon abatement costs in shipping remain the main limitation for larger emission reductions. |
| Keywords: | Climate; shipping; international agreements; carbon taxes; Emissions Trading System; IMO |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2025_002 |
| By: | Cardenas Hurtado, Camilo; Moustaki, Irini; Chen, Yunxiao; Marra, Giampiero |
| Abstract: | We introduce a general framework for latent variable modeling, named Generalized Latent Variable Models for Location, Scale, and Shape parameters (GLVM-LSS). This framework extends the generalized linear latent variable model beyond the exponential family distributional assumption and enables the modeling of distributional parameters other than the mean (location parameter), such as scale and shape parameters, as functions of latent variables. Model parameters are estimated via maximum likelihood. We present two real-world applications on public opinion research and educational testing, and evaluate the model’s performance in terms of parameter recovery through extensive simulation studies. Our results suggest that the GLVM-LSS is a valuable tool in applications where modeling higher-order moments of the observed variables through latent variables is of substantive interest. The proposed model is implemented in the R package glvmlss, available online. |
| Keywords: | latent variable models; distributional regression; GAMLSS; EM algorithm; heteroscedasticity |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2025–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127387 |
| By: | Marzouk, Osama A. |
| Abstract: | This study discusses the portion of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in the worldwide stock of vehicles on roads, particularly when compared to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which comprise battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The study considers the overall number of these e-mobility (electric mobility) vehicles, as well as within each of 4 transport modes, namely: (1) passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDVs or simply “cars”), (2) light commercial vehicles (LCVs or simply “vans”), (3) buses, and (4) trucks. The study also investigates the progress in the number of hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) for FCEVs, and contrasts that with electric charging points (ECPs) for PEVs; during the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. While the number of worldwide FCEVs nearly doubled in 2022 compared to 2020, the ratio of FCEVs to PEVs declined from 0.3348% in 2020 to 0.2738% (less than 0.3%) in 2022. In 2022 also, the number of FCEVs was 0.3914% (less than 0.4%) of the number of BEVs, and 0.9113% (less than 1%) of the number of PHEVs. The worldwide fraction of PEVs with respect to the total vehicles (both electric and non-electric) in 2022 was approximately 1.816% (split into 1.2704% for BEVs and 0.5456% for PHEVs), while the fraction of FCEVs was approximately 0.0050% (only 5 FCEVs per 100, 000 vehicles). In terms of the convenience to supply the vehicles with energy, the number of worldwide hydrogen refueling stations nearly doubled in 2022 compared to 2020. Similarly, the worldwide number of electric charging points for use with PEVs nearly doubled in 2022 compared to 2020. However, the ratio of HRSs to ECPs declined from 0.0415% in 2020 to 0.0378% in 2022. The worldwide average FCEVs per HRS in 2022 was 70.69, while the worldwide average PEVs per ECP in 2022 was 9.75. Thus, PEVs are much more attractive than FCEVs for a driver concerned about the network of hydrogen stations. Furthermore, owners of PEVs have an additional option of recharging their vehicles at home (which is not applicable for FCEVs). Between 2020 and 2022, PEVs were dominated by BEVs, with 69.95% of PEVs being BEVs in 2022. This 2022 fraction of BEVs in PEVs reflects a consistent increase from the 2021 fraction (68.34%) and from the 2020 fraction (67.23%). Considering the worldwide increase in these e-mobility vehicles from 2020 to 2022, the number of FCEVs increased by a factor of 2.072, PHEVs increased by a factor of 2.322, and BEVs increased by a factor of 2.636, PEVs increased by a factor of 2.533. Thus, out of the 3 e-mobility vehicle technologies (FCEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs), BEVs had the strongest presence as well as the fastest growth. |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:xrhdy_v1 |