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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Tareq Alsaleh; Bilal Farooq; Zachary Patterson |
| Abstract: | We examine these relationships using a panel dataset of more than 80, 000 trip observations from 100 participants through a custom-built mobile application. A joint revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) framework is used to estimate multinomial logit (MNL) and mixed logit (MXL) models. The level of integration is represented through a composite index capturing economic, social, civic, and health dimensions of integration. Results indicate two distinct patterns. First, the estimated models suggest that new immigrants in the sample exhibit lower sensitivity to in-vehicle travel time than Canadian-born respondents. The mixed logit specification suggests that the value of travel time for the sampled immigrants is approximately 66% lower than that of Canadian-born residents, with a immigrant-to-Canadian-born ratio of 0.34 that is consistent across both MXL specifications. Second, higher levels of integration are associated with reduced transit use and greater car reliance. A one standard deviation increase in the integration index decreases the probability of choosing public transit by approximately five percentage points. The joint RP-SP specification allows the inclusion of emerging e-mobility alternatives not yet observed in revealed behaviour; these face no inherent preference penalty, competing purely on their level-of-service attributes. Out-of-sample validation using five-fold cross-validation produces a mean prediction accuracy between 80% and 82% across model specifications. The findings suggest that transit policies in immigrant-receiving cities could prioritize service quality improvements, particularly reductions in access time, which are approximately three times more effective than fare reductions in shifting immigrants toward transit use. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.15564 |
| By: | Omar Martin Fieles-Ahmad; Selina Schulze Spüntrup |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of introducing prompted choice on organ donation behavior. Applying a generalized difference-in-differences design, we take advantage of the gradual roll-out of a policy in Italy that integrated the question of organ donation preference into the process of identity card renewal. Our findings show that municipalities prompting the question saw a signifcant increase in consent registrations, although individuals retained the option to abstain from making a choice. We also provide novel evidence that regions with higher levels of registered consent have higher cadaveric organ donation rates. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_425 |
| By: | Mogens Fosgerau; Jesper R. -V. S{\o}rensen |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a highly general convex duality framework for the perturbed utility route choice (PURC) model. We show that the traveler's constrained, potentially non-smooth utility maximization problem admits a dual formulation: an unconstrained concave maximization problem with a differentiable objective. The unique optimal flow can be recovered link-by-link from any dual solution via the convex conjugates of link perturbation functions. These properties enable efficient gradient-based optimization for large-scale networks and fast computation for sensitivity analysis. Finally, the framework reveals a structural analogy between PURC and current flow in electrical circuits. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.20220 |
| By: | Thomas Demuynck; Per Hjertstrand |
| Abstract: | We propose a revealed preference method to non-parametrically bound the coefficients of relative (and absolute) risk aversion in an expected utility framework.Our approach abstains from placing functional form restrictions on the Bernoulliutility function. Our method is applicable to any finite number of observations onchoices over Arrow-Debreu contingent claims, and can be efficiently implementedusing linear or quadratic programming techniques. We illustrate our results usinga large-scaled experimental data set |
| Keywords: | Expected Utility; revealed preference; risk aversion |
| JEL: | D11 C14 D81 |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/405675 |
| By: | Fiona Burlig; James B. Bushnell; David S. Rapson |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of program participation for policy, treatment effects are often measured on self-selected samples. We study electric vehicle (EV) managed charging, intended to reduce electric grid strain by optimally allocating charging across EVs. Prior work finds large impacts of managed charging among households who volunteer for an RCT. In contrast, we test managed charging with an experiment including all EVs within a California utility. Enrollment is low even with high incentives, and we can reject even modest intent-to-treat effects on electricity consumption. Managed charging is less effective than previously thought, underscoring the value of population-wide experiments. |
| JEL: | C90 Q40 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35086 |
| By: | Daniel Aronoff; Kristian Praizner; Armin Sabouri |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin transaction fees will become more important as the block subsidy declines, but fee formation is hard to study with blockchain data alone because the relevant queueing environment is unobserved. We develop and estimate a structural model of Bitcoin fee choice that treats the mempool as a market for scarce blockspace. We assemble a novel, high-frequency mempool panel, from a self-run Bitcoin node that records transaction arrivals, exits, block inclusion, fee-bumping events, and congestion snapshots. We characterize the fee market as a Vickery-Clarke-Groves mechanism and derive an equation to estimate fees. In the first-stage we estimate a monotone delay technology linking fee-rate priority and network state to expected confirmation delay. We then estimate how fees respond to that delay technology and to transaction characteristics. We find that congestion is the main determinant of delay; that the marginal value of priority is priced in fees, which is increasing in the gradient of confirmation time reduction per movement up in the fee queue; and that transactor choice of RBF, CPFP, and block conditions have economically important effects on fees. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.17183 |
| By: | Madison Dell; Enzo Brox; Patricia Palffy; Claudio Schilter; Uschi Backes-Gellner |
| Abstract: | We study how choice architecture in online platforms shapes high-stakes occupational choices through two behavioral mechanisms: motivated reasoning and cognitive load. Using detailed process data from a large online job board and exploiting a quasi-experimental setting, we leverage two sources of exogenous variation in the presentation of occupation recommendations. First, we use random variation in the rank order of equally well-matched occupations to study the effects of motivated reasoning. Our results show that rank order strongly increases the level of users' engagement on the platform and, consequently, the number of occupations to which they apply. Second, we exploit a redesign that transformed the occupation recommendations from a static, text-heavy list into an interactive and visually enriched presentation. The redesign was neither announced nor anticipated, which allows for causal interpretation. We find that this small redesign significantly increases the number of occupations to which users apply, supporting our hypothesis that it reduces cognitive load, leading to increased use of a watch list that keeps more occupations in jobseekers' memory. Our findings provide large-scale field evidence showing that even small changes in platform design significantly and strongly shape consequential career choices. |
| Keywords: | Occupational choice, Choice architecture, Recommender systems, Motivated reasoning, Cognitive load |
| JEL: | D91 J24 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0255 |
| By: | Hensel, Lukas (Peking University); Abebe, Girum (International Finance Corporation (IFC), The World Bank); Gerard, François (University College London); Caria, Stefano (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Job loss is an understudied risk for formal workers in lower-income countries. In these settings, lump-sum severance pay is often the only source of job-loss insurance. We quasi experimentally show that female factory workers in Ethiopia displaced by a tariff hike experience lasting declines in employment and consumption spending, and rising poverty. Experimentally, we find that additional lump-sum support induces early spending and reduces overall and manufacturing employment persistently. Disbursing an equivalent amount in tranches improves consumption smoothing and avoids adverse employment effects. Further, we document a high willingness to pay for additional insurance, alongside heterogeneous preferences over disbursement modality that shape responses to our interventions. These findings imply that increasing job-loss insurance raises welfare, although moving away from the lump-sum default can generate substantial additional gains. |
| Keywords: | job loss, job-loss insurance, trade shock |
| JEL: | O12 J63 J65 I32 O14 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18537 |