|
on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Asena Caner; Belgi Turan; Berna Tari Kasnakoğlu; Yenal Can Yiğit; Donald S. Kenkel; Alan D. Mathios |
| Abstract: | This study investigates consumer stated preferences for manufactured cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, and vapes in Türkiye, with a focus on how product attributes shape choices of adult consumers. A discrete choice experiment embedded in an online survey examines the role of prices of these products, flavor availability, and most importantly the legal status of vapes. Results indicate strong price sensitivity, both to own prices and to the prices of substitutes. In addition, legal status emerges as a critical factor that shapes stated preferences: consumers exhibit a marked aversion to products that are banned or sold illegally. However, scenario analyses suggest that vapes would capture a substantial market share even under strict prohibition. The hypothetical scenario of a complete ban would likely have a modest effect on the cessation of nicotine products while shifting choices toward traditional combustible tobacco products. These findings highlight the limits of prohibition and underscore the importance of regulatory design. In particular, the treatment of legal status, together with pricing and taxation policies, plays a decisive role in shaping consumer behavior and public health outcomes. |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34201 |
| By: | Emerson Melo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Random Utility Model (RUM) in repeated stochastic choice settings where decision-makers lack full information about payoffs. We propose a gradient-based learning algorithm that embeds RUM into an online decision-making framework. Our analysis establishes Hannan consistency for a broad class of RUMs, meaning the average regret relative to the best fixed action in hindsight vanishes over time. We also show that our algorithm is equivalent to the Follow-The-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) method, offering an economically grounded approach to online optimization. Applications include modeling recency bias and characterizing coarse correlated equilibria in normal-form games |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.16030 |
| By: | Hjertstrand, Per (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Proctor, Andrew (Department of Economics, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich); Westerlund, Joakim (Department of Economics, Lund University, Sweden, and) |
| Abstract: | One of the most cited studies within the field of binary choice models is that of Klein and Spady (1993), in which the authors propose an estimator that is not only non-parametric with respect to the choice density but also asymptotically efficient. However, while theoretically appealing, the estimator has been found to be very difficult to implement with poor small-sample properties. This paper proposes a simplified version of the Klein–Spady estimator, which is shown to be easy to implement, numerically relatively more stable, and with excellent small-sample and asymptotic properties. |
| Keywords: | Binary choice; Maximum likelihood; Semi-parametric estimation |
| JEL: | C14 C25 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1535 |
| By: | Yeganloo, A.; Moran, C.; Jafri, J. |
| Abstract: | We present comprehensive experimental evidence that expanding the number of charitable options enhances both donation outcomes and donor experience, suggesting choice deprivation rather than choice overload. In a pre-registered online experiment with over 2, 248 participants donating real money to UK charities (average donation of £1.59 out of £2.50), we find that increasing the number of available charities raises total donations robustly by approximately £0.04. Furthermore, allowing participants to donate to multiple charities, rather than restricting them to one, boosts donations by £0.23 on average, without increasing regret or diminishing satisfaction. Other mediators, difficulty, deliberation, and familiarity, do not explain the impact of treatments on giving behaviour. Our design rules out alternative explanations, including self-interest, ease of donation, or perceived importance of giving, and highlights that more choices encourage thoughtful engagement with the donation decision. The results are highly relevant to the design of consumer-facing interventions in pro-environmental domains, importantly for energy and climate policy. In areas such as carbon offsetting and climate-focused giving, individuals are required to make voluntary contributions or adopt sustainable products. Our evidence suggests that providing diverse and flexible choices can increase contributions in these domains. |
| Keywords: | Charitable Giving, Donation, Public Goods, Choice Overload, Choice Deprivation, Satisfaction, Regret |
| JEL: | C91 D64 D91 H00 |
| Date: | 2025–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2554 |
| By: | Gross, Tal; Layton, Tim; Prinz, Daniel; Yates, Julia |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how couples in the Medicare Part D program choose an insurance plan. Over 70 percent of enrollees choose the same plan as their spouse. Even among those with differing health care needs, well over half do so. Discrete- choice models suggest that beneficiaries place a value of more than $1, 000 per year on being on the same plan as their spouse. Using a regression-discontinuity design, the paper shows that younger spouses disproportionately follow their older spouse’s plan choice. Joint plan choice contributes modestly to overall overspending, but increases costs substantially for couples with different cost-minimizing plans. |
| Date: | 2025–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11207 |
| By: | Matthew Nibloe (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Clara von Bismarck-Osten (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/32 |
| By: | Alexandra Rottenkolber; Ola Ali; Gergely Mónus; Jiaxuan Li; Jisu Kim (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniela Perrotta (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Aliakbar Akbaritabar (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Mobility of researchers is a key driver of knowledge diffusion, innovation, and international collaboration. While prior research highlights the role of networks in shaping migration flows, the extent to which personal and institutional ties influence the direction of scientific mobility remains unclear. This study leverages large-scale digital trace data from Scopus, capturing complete mobility trajectories, co-authorship networks, and collaboration histories of 172, 000 authors. Using multinomial logistic regressions and discrete choice modelling, we systematically assess the effects of first- and second-order co-authorship ties and institutional linkages on scholars’ mobility outcomes, focusing on their first career move. Our findings demonstrate that not only first-, but also second-order co-authorship ties — connections to a scholar’s collaborators’ collaborators — are a strong predictor for the direction of a move. Scholars with extensive individual professional networks, as well as those migrating abroad, are more likely to move along individual ties. In contrast, those from prestigious institutions, as well as those moving nationally, tend to follow institutional routes more often. Discrete choice models further confirm that both individual and institutional ties increase the probability of moving to specific research institutions, with individual connections being more influential than institutional ones. This research provides empirical evidence for the role that individual and institutional connections play in shaping high-skilled labour mobility. Furthermore, it has important implications for migration theory and policy, emphasising the need to support national and international collaborative networks, both individual and institutional, to foster scientific exchange. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-028 |
| By: | Kansikas, Carolina (University of Warwick); Mani, Anandi (University of Oxford); Niehaus, Paul (UC San Diego) |
| Abstract: | We examine the preferences of low-income households in Kenya over the structure of unconditional cash transfers. Most preferred lumpy transfers, and some preferred deferred receipt—in contrast to the typical structures of safety-net programs, but consistent with evidence on the financial challenges of poverty. Turning to consequences, receiving transfers later in the year raised income 1.5 years later— but willingness to defer receipt was sensitive to small changes in cash flow around the time of decision-making. Taken together, these results illustrate how adapting cash transfer design to the decision-making environment of those in poverty could improve financial choices and outcomes. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers ; revealed preferences ; choice architecture ; poverty dynamics ; seasonality JEL Codes: D91 ; H53 ; I38, O2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1574 |
| By: | Crispin Cooper; Ana Fredrich; Tommaso Reggiani; Wouter Poortinga |
| Abstract: | How should well-being be prioritised in society, and what trade-offs are people willing to make between fairness and personal well-being? We investigate these questions using a stated preference experiment with a nationally representative UK sample (n = 300), in which participants evaluated life satisfaction outcomes for both themselves and others under conditions of uncertainty. Individual-level utility functions were estimated using an Expected Utility Maximisation (EUM) framework and tested for sensitivity to the overweighting of small probabilities, as characterised by Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). A majority of participants displayed concave (risk-averse) utility curves and showed stronger aversion to inequality in societal life satisfaction outcomes than to personal risk. These preferences were unrelated to political alignment, suggesting a shared normative stance on fairness in well-being that cuts across ideological boundaries. The results challenge use of average life satisfaction as a policy metric, and support the development of nonlinear utility-based alternatives that more accurately reflect collective human values. Implications for public policy, well-being measurement, and the design of value-aligned AI systems are discussed. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.07793 |
| By: | Takahiro Suzuki; Michele Aleandri; Stefano Moretti |
| Abstract: | Independence from non-essential changes in input information is a widely recognized axiom in social choice theory. This independence reduces the cost of specifying and/or analyzing non-essential data. This study makes a comprehensive analysis of independence axioms in the context of social ranking solutions (SRSs). We consider seven independence axioms (two of which are new) and provide a novel characterization of the lexicographic excellence solution and plurality by substituting these independence axioms in the existing characterization of the intersection initial segment rule. The characterizations highlight the differences among the three SRSs in terms of independence. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.21836 |
| By: | Yutaro Akita; Kensei Nakamura |
| Abstract: | We provide a model of preferences over lotteries of acts in which a decision maker behaves as if optimally filtering her ambiguity perception. She has a set of plausible ambiguity perceptions and a cost function over them, and chooses multiple priors to maximize the minimum expected utility minus the cost. We characterize the model by axioms on attitude toward randomization and its timing, uniquely identify the filtering cost from observable data, and conduct several comparatives. Our model can explain Machina's (2009) two paradoxes, which are incompatible with many standard ambiguity models. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.05076 |
| By: | Isaac Ahimbisibwe; Adam Altjmed; Gregory Artemov; Andrés Barrios Fernández; Aspasia Bizopoulou; Martti Kaila; Jin-Tan Liu; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Jose Montalban; Christopher Neilson; Sebastian Otero; Jintao Sun; Xiaoyang Ye |
| Abstract: | Women account for only 35% of global STEM graduates, a share unchanged for a decade. We use administrative microdata from centralized university admissions in ten systems to deliver the first cross-national decomposition of the STEM gender gap into a pipeline gap (academic preparedness) and a choice gap (first-choice field conditional on eligibility). In deferred-acceptance platforms where eligibility is score-based, we isolate preferences from access. The pipeline gap varies widely, from -19 to +31 percentage points across education systems. By contrast, the choice gap is remarkably stable: high-scoring women are 25 percentage points less likely than men to rank STEM first. |
| Keywords: | gender, inequality, STEM, gender gap, centralised application platforms |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2120 |
| By: | Christopher Avery; Geoffrey Kocks; Parag A. Pathak |
| Abstract: | School choice systems increasingly use common applications, where students can apply to multiple schools on a single form, though schools make admission decisions independently. We model three application systems: a common application, a decentralized system with costly separate applications, and a ranked-choice system using a matching algorithm. Our model shows that while a common application may expand access, it increases competition and may produce worse matches than a decentralized system where application costs encourage more selective applications. Ranked-choice systems combine reduced application costs with preference-based matching that reduce mismatches. We examine these predictions by analyzing how Boston's charter school sector was affected when it adopted an online common application. Counterfactual simulations suggest the common application performs no better than alternatives on several metrics and did little to increase access for disadvantaged groups. A ranked system consistently outperforms a common application across various levels of competition and assumptions on preference stability between application and enrollment stages. |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34207 |
| By: | Arthur Lewbel; Xi Qu; Xun Tang |
| Abstract: | We propose an adjusted 2SLS estimator for social network models when reported binary network links are misclassified (some zeros reported as ones and vice versa) due, e.g., to survey respondents' recall errors, or lapses in data input. We show misclassification adds new sources of correlation between the regressors and errors, which makes all covariates endogenous and invalidates conventional estimators. We resolve these issues by constructing a novel estimator of misclassification rates and using those estimates to both adjust endogenous peer outcomes and construct new instruments for 2SLS estimation. A distinctive feature of our method is that it does not require structural modeling of link formation. Simulation results confirm our adjusted 2SLS estimator corrects the bias from a naive, unadjusted 2SLS estimator which ignores misclassification and uses conventional instruments. We apply our method to study peer effects in household decisions to participate in a microfinance program in Indian villages. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.07343 |
| By: | Pietro Salmanso; Bernardo Moreno; Dolors Berga |
| Abstract: | We consider a society composed of a finite set of agents with preferences over a finite set of alternatives. We focus on collective choice correspondences which are rules assigning to each pair formed by agents' preferences and a subset of alternatives (an agenda), a chosen subset of the agenda. Our analysis centers on three properties: neutrality, strong pairwise justifiability, and strong decisiveness. Neutrality requires that no alternative is intrinsically favored over another. Strong pairwise justifiability demands that if an alternative x is selected in one situation but not in another, there must exist some other alternative z , present in both agendas, whose relative ranking with respect to x has improved for at least one agent. Strong decisiveness is a property that can be viewed as a particular type of resoluteness. Our main result establishes that serial dictatorships are the only collective choice correspondences defined on the universal domain and across all agendas satisfying neutrality, strong pairwise justifiability, and strong decisiveness. |
| Keywords: | collective choice correspondences, neutrality, serial dictators |
| JEL: | D70 D71 D78 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1508 |
| By: | Felix Chopra; Ingar K. Haaland; Fabian Roeben; Christopher Roth; Vanessa Sticher |
| Abstract: | News outlets compete for engagement rather than reader satisfaction, leading to persistent mismatches between consumer demand and the supply of news. We test whether offering people the opportunity to customize the news can address this mismatch by unbundling presentation from coverage. In our AI-powered news app, users can customize article characteristics, such as the complexity of the writing or the extent of opinion, while holding the underlying news event constant. Using rich news consumption data from large-scale field experiments, we uncover substantial heterogeneity in news preferences. While a significant fraction of users demand politically aligned news, the vast majority of users display a high and persistent demand for less opinionated and more fact-driven news. Customization also leads to a better match between the news consumed and stated preferences, increasing news satisfaction. |
| Keywords: | news consumption, customization, artificial intelligence, matching |
| JEL: | C93 D83 L82 P00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12121 |
| By: | Tony Chernis; Niko Hauzenberger; Haroon Mumtaz; Michael Pfarrhofer |
| Abstract: | We propose a dynamic factor model (DFM) where the latent factors are linked to observed variables with unknown and potentially nonlinear functions. The key novelty and source of flexibility of our approach is a nonparametric observation equation, specified via Gaussian Process (GP) priors for each series. Factor dynamics are modeled with a standard vector autoregression (VAR), which facilitates computation and interpretation. We discuss a computationally efficient estimation algorithm and consider two empirical applications. First, we forecast key series from the FRED-QD dataset and show that the model yields improvements in predictive accuracy relative to linear benchmarks. Second, we extract driving factors of global inflation dynamics with the GP-DFM, which allows for capturing international asymmetries. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.04928 |
| By: | Vincent Boucher; Aristide Houndetoungan |
| Abstract: | We study the estimation of peer effects through social networks when researchers do not observe the entire network structure. Special cases include sampled networks, censored networks, and misclassified links. We assume that researchers can obtain a consistent estimator of the distribution of the network. We show that this assumption is sufficient for estimating peer effects using a linear-in-means model. We provide an empirical application to the study of peer effects on students' academic achievement using the widely used Add Health database, and show that network data errors have a large downward bias on estimated peer effects. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.08145 |