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on Discrete Choice Models |
| By: | Dimitra Spyropoulou (Charles University Environment Centre, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Milan Scasny (Charles University Environment Centre, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates consumer preferences for passenger battery electric vehicles and their joint adoption with a residential solar photovoltaic system in Greece, where electric vehicle uptake remains low. Using discrete choice experiments, we analyse the preferences of 891 potential car buyers for conventional, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles, comparing scenarios where a battery electric vehicle is offered alone or as a bundle with subsidised home solar photovoltaics. Results indicate that offering a technology bundle shifts consumer preferences, with the most notable effect being a decrease in the likelihood of choosing conventional vehicles. The willingness to pay for the bundle also exceeds that for battery electric vehicles, suggesting that installing PV systems adds value to BEVs. Key factors influencing adoption include purchase price, operating costs, wallbox subsidies, and normal charging time, while driving range and fast-mode charging do not seem to significantly affect consumer preferences. However, the analysis reveals substantial unobserved preference heterogeneity across all attributes. Robustness checks support the validity of our results. These findings suggest that integrated green technology bundles can accelerate low-carbon transport adoption, supporting the EU decarbonisation targets through complementary renewable energy and electromobility solutions. |
| Keywords: | Battery Electric Vehicles; Photovoltaics; Technology bundle; Consumer choices; Discrete Choice Experiments; Willingness to Pay |
| JEL: | C15 D12 D90 Q42 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_16 |
| By: | Srijesh Pillai; Rajesh Kumar Chandrawat |
| Abstract: | For premium consumer products, pricing strategy is not about a single number, but about understanding the perceived monetary value of the features that justify a higher cost. This paper proposes a robust methodology to deconstruct a product's price into the tangible value of its constituent parts. We employ Bayesian Hierarchical Conjoint Analysis, a sophisticated statistical technique, to solve this high-stakes business problem using the Apple iPhone as a universally recognizable case study. We first simulate a realistic choice based conjoint survey where consumers choose between different hypothetical iPhone configurations. We then develop a Bayesian Hierarchical Logit Model to infer consumer preferences from this choice data. The core innovation of our model is its ability to directly estimate the Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) in dollars for specific feature upgrades, such as a "Pro" camera system or increased storage. Our results demonstrate that the model successfully recovers the true, underlying feature valuations from noisy data, providing not just a point estimate but a full posterior probability distribution for the dollar value of each feature. This work provides a powerful, practical framework for data-driven product design and pricing strategy, enabling businesses to make more intelligent decisions about which features to build and how to price them. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.11089 |
| By: | Brendon G. Anderson |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider finite-strategy approximations of infinite-strategy evolutionary games. We prove that such approximations converge to the true dynamics over finite-time intervals, under mild regularity conditions which are satisfied by classical examples, e.g., the replicator dynamics. We identify and formalize novel characteristics in evolutionary games: choice mobility, and its complement choice paralysis. Choice mobility is shown to be a key sufficient condition for the long-time limiting behavior of finite-strategy approximations to coincide with that of the true infinite-strategy game. An illustrative example is constructed to showcase how choice paralysis may lead to the infinite-strategy game getting "stuck, " even though every finite approximation converges to equilibrium. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.10567 |
| By: | Baorui Li; Xincheng Ma; Brian Rongqing Han; Daizhong Tang; Lei Fu |
| Abstract: | As platforms increasingly deploy robots alongside human labor in last-mile logistics, little is known about how contextual features like product attributes, environmental conditions, and psychological mechanisms shape consumer preference in real-world settings. To address this gap, this paper conducts an empirical study on consumer choice between human versus robot service, analyzing 241, 517 package-level choices from Alibaba's last-mile delivery stations. We identify how product privacy sensitivity, product value, and environmental complexity affect consumer preference. Our findings reveal that consumers are significantly more likely to choose robot delivery for privacy-sensitive packages (11.49%) and high-value products (0.97% per 1% increase in value), but prefer human couriers under adverse weather conditions (1.63%). These patterns are robust to alternative specifications and controls. These results also underscore that delivery choices are shaped not only by functional considerations but also by psychological concerns, highlighting the need for context-aware service design that aligns strategies with consumer perceptions. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.11562 |
| By: | Zachary Van Oosten; Ruodu Wang |
| Abstract: | We propose a new decision model under ambiguity, called the Choquet rank-dependent utility model. The model extends the Choquet expected utility model by allowing for the reduction to the rank-dependent utility model in the absence of ambiguity, rather than to the expected utility model. The model has three major components: a utility function $u$ and a probability distortion $g$, which together capture the risk component of the preferences, and generalized probabilistic beliefs $\nu$, which captures the ambiguity component of the preferences. The representation takes the form $X\succsim Y\iff \int_{\Omega} u(X)d(g\circ\nu)\iff \int_{\Omega} u(Y)d(g\circ\nu).$ To obtain the axiomatization, we work in the uncertainty setting of Savage with a non-ambiguous source. Afterwards, we discuss ambiguity attitudes and their representation with respect to the generalized probabilistic beliefs, along with conditions for a robust representation. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.10788 |
| By: | Jean-Francois Dewals (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sterenn Lucas (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Fabienne Daures (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascal Le Floc’h (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Kilian Heutte (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Labels are currently numerous and diverse in the fishery and aquaculture products (FAPs) market, providing consumers with information about the different attributes of FAPs. This extensive development implies that consumers have to face trade-off situations. This paper aims (1) to identify which labels are most valued by consumers when they face a trade-off situation, (2) to study the consumption profiles behind these preferences and (3) to suggest ways of improving the efficiency of labelling policies. Based on a survey conducted in 2021 (n = 1 427), this article describes FAPs consumers' preferences for labelled FAPs. To do so, each consumer was asked to rank their favourite scheme from a pool of nine hypothetical labels related to specific FAPs characteristics. Then, we used a mixed multinomial logit model (MMLM) with marginal effects to analyse consumption profiles. Our results show heterogeneity among consumers regarding labelled FAPs. Overall, labels that ensure intrinsic qualities remain preferred to labels linked to ethical considerations. Moreover, while preferences for domestic productions are prominent, there is a very wide gap with real purchasing behaviour. Furthermore, this study shows that personal motivation, age, gender, knowledge or place of residence influence the preferences expressed. Labels are a policy tool used to reform the FAPs value chain. Nevertheless, they are struggling to achieve their objectives. Our results can be useful for better targeting the messages to be implemented, improving the efficiency of labelling policies and helping consumers to make informed and sustainable choices |
| Keywords: | Multinomial mixed logit model, France, Seafood, Consumers’ preferences, Labelling schemes, Multiple choices |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04678630 |
| By: | Niels Boissonnet; Alexis Ghersengorin |
| Abstract: | Restricting individuals' access to some opportunities may steer their desire toward their substitutes, a phenomenon known as the forbidden fruit effect. We axiomatize a choice model named restriction-sensitive choice (RSC), which rationalizes the forbidden fruit effect and is compatible with the prominent psychological explanations: reactance theory and commodity theory. The model is identifiable from choice data, specifically from the observation of choice reversals caused by the removal of options. We conduct a normative analysis both in terms of the agent's freedom and welfare. We apply our model to shed light on two phenomena: the backfire effect of beliefs and the backlash of integration policies targeted towards minorities. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.11673 |
| By: | Donald R. Davis; Matthew Easton; Stephan Thies |
| Abstract: | We use a discrete choice framework to provide the first nesting of Thomas C. Schelling’s canonical models of racial segregation amenable to empirical examination. Using U.S. Census data from 1970–2000, we demonstrate a central role for spatial racial spillovers in shaping racial clustering, patterns of racial shares and housing prices at the boundary of racial clusters, and the locus of racial change. Our results on the locus of racial change conflict strongly with prominent prior results on racial tipping. Our theory provides a foundation for spatially stratified regressions. The strongest spatial effects in the prior work are not tipping, but the distinct biased White suburbanization. Tipping effects in urban areas remote from Minority clusters are small or insignificant. In urban areas proximate to Minority clusters they average less than half those reported in prior pooled results. Policies promoting racial integration must thus attend to the heterogeneous fragility of neighborhoods. |
| JEL: | J15 R1 R3 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34246 |
| By: | Robin Ng; Greg Taylor |
| Abstract: | We study how content moderation facilitates communication on online platforms. A sender transmits information to a receiver, exerting effort to signal their truthfulness. Communication fails without moderation because the effort required is prohibitive. Moderation resolves this problem by making effort a more powerful signal of veracity. However, moderation crowds-out sender effort, decreasing content quality on the platform. A socially optimal or profit-maximizing policy may therefore involve limited moderation. We study the choice between being a platform or broadcaster, how moderation influences competition for attention, and the effects of misinformation actors, AI-generated content, and moderator errors on the sustainability of communication. |
| Keywords: | user-generated content, content moderation, creator economy, media platforms, misinformation |
| JEL: | D83 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_698v2 |
| By: | Felix Chopra (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management); Ingar Haaland (NHH Norwegian School of Economics); Fabian Roeben (University of Cologne); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne, NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, IZA, CEPR); Vanessa Sticher (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | News outlets compete for engagement rather than reader satisfaction, leading to persistent mismatches between consumer demand and the supply of news. We test whether offering people the opportunity to customize the news can address this mismatch by unbundling presentation from coverage. In our AI-powered news app, users can customize article characteristics, such as the complexity of the writing or the extent of opinion, while holding the underlying news event constant. Using rich news consumption data from large-scale field experiments, we uncover substantial heterogeneity in news preferences. While a significant fraction of users demand politically aligned news, the vast majority of users display a high and persistent demand for less opinionated and more fact-driven news. Customization also leads to a better match between the news consumed and stated preferences, increasing news satisfaction. |
| Keywords: | News Consumption, Customization, Artificial Intelligence, Matching |
| JEL: | C93 D83 L82 P00 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:372 |
| By: | Fischer, Manfred M.; LeSage, James P. |
| Abstract: | Spatial econometrics deals with econometric modeling in the presence of spatial dependence and heterogeneity, where observations correspond to specific spatial units such as points or regions. Traditional estimation techniques assume independent observations and are inadequate when spatial dependence exists. This article provides an overview of spatial econometric models, highlighting the challenges posed by spatial dependence in cross-sectional data. It examines key models, including the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Spatial Error (SEM), and Spatial Durbin (SDM) models, while detailing maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) techniques and computational advancements for handling large datasets. Alternative estimation approaches, such as the generalized method of moments, Bayesian methods, non-parametric locally linear models, and matrix exponential spatial models, are also discussed. The article explores methods applicable to continuous, dichotomous, and censored variables. Interpreting spatial regression model estimates correctly is crucial for drawing valid inferences. Distinguishing between direct, indirect (spillover), and total effects and careful specification of the spatial weight matrix is essential. Misinterpretation can lead to flawed conclusions, undermining policy relevance – especially when assessing interventions with potential spillovers. By adhering to rigorous interpretation practices, researchers can fully leverage spatial regression models while mitigating analytical pitfalls. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian methods; censored dependent models; cross-sectional models; generalized method of moments; marginal effects; matrix exponential spatial models; maximum likelihood; non-parametric locally linear models; spatial dependence; spillover effects |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus046:72854367 |
| By: | Isaac Ahimbisibwe (Baylor University); Adam Altjmed (Stockholm University); Georgy Artemov (University of Melbourne); Andres Barrios-Fernandez (Universidad de los Andes); Aspasia Bizopoulou (VATT Institute for Economic Research); Martti Kaila (University of Glasgow); Jin-Tan Liu (National Taiwan University); Rigissa Megalokonomou (Monash University); JosŽ Montalban (Stockholm University); Christopher Neilson (Yale University); Jintao Sun (Rice University); Sebastian Otero (Columbia University); Xiaoyang Ye (Amazon) |
| Abstract: | Women account for only 35% of global STEM graduates, a share unchanged for a decade. We use administrative microdata from centralized university admissions in ten systems to deliver the first crossnational decomposition of the STEM gender gap into a pipeline gap (academic preparedness) and a choice gap (first-choice field conditional on eligibility). In deferred-acceptance platforms where eligibility is score-based, we isolate preferences from access. The pipeline gap varies widely, from -19 to +31 percentage points across education systems. By contrast, the choice gap is remarkably stable: high-scoring women are 25 percentage points less likely than men to rank STEM first. |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2458 |
| By: | Maria Titova |
| Abstract: | How does targeted advertising influence electoral outcomes? This paper presents a one-dimensional spatial model of voting in which a privately informed challenger persuades voters to support him over the status quo. I show that targeted advertising enables the challenger to persuade voters with opposing preferences and swing elections decided by such voters; under simple majority, the challenger can defeat the status quo even when it is located at the median voter's bliss point. Ex-ante commitment power is unnecessary -- the challenger succeeds by strategically revealing different pieces of verifiable information to different voters. Publicizing all political ads would mitigate the negative effects of targeted advertising and help voters collectively make the right choice. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.10422 |
| By: | Aniruddha Ghosh (Department of Economics, Cal Poly University); M. Ali Khan (Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University); Metin Uyanik (School of Economics, University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a correspondence taking values in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space to be open so as to revisit the pioneering work of Schmeidler(1969), Shafer (1974), Shafer-Sonnenschein (1975) and Bergstrom-Rader-Parks (1976) to answer several questions they and their followers left open. We introduce the notion of separate convexity for a correspondence and use it to relate to classical notions of continuity while giving salience to the notion of separateness in the interplay of separate continuity and separate convexity of binary relations. As such, we provide a consolidation of the convexity-continuity postulates from a broad inter-disciplinary perspective and comment on how the qualified notions proposed here have implications of substantive interest for choice theory. |
| Keywords: | Separately convex, separately continuous, linearly continuous, graph-continuous, section-continuous, preferences, correspondences |
| JEL: | C00 C02 D01 D11 D51 D81 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpl:wpaper:2502 |
| By: | Herrera-Almanza, Catalina (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); McCarthy, Aine Seitz |
| Abstract: | In sub-Saharan Africa, the gap in fertility preferences between men and women may influence household fertility outcomes as men usually desire more children and have more intra-household bargaining power. We estimate the effect of an informational family planning program that randomizes the inclusion of husbands on fertility preferences (desired additional children) in rural Tanzania. Surprisingly, husbands who participated in joint family planning consultations increased their desired fertility, and their wives responded by also increasing their desired number of additional children, converging to his larger preferences. In contrast, women in private family planning consultations (without their husbands) reduced their fertility desires, while their husbands' preferences remained unchanged. We provide evidence that the increase in women's fertility preferences as a result of the joint consultations is related to polygamy. Women in polygamous marriages increase their demand for children substantially, likely as a strategic response to hearing their husbands' stated preferences during the joint consultations. |
| Keywords: | randomized experiment, fertility, intrahousehold bargaining, fertility preferences |
| JEL: | D13 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18115 |
| By: | Daniel W. Sacks; Justin R. Sydnor |
| Abstract: | Can economic tools help inform the puzzlingly low rate of flu vaccination? Existing interventions focus on misinformation or nudges, not preferences over or beliefs about vaccine characteristics. Using an online experiment, we find a key role for effectiveness and short-run side-effects: equalizing only beliefs and preferences about these characteristics nearly eliminates the vaccination-intention gap between the vaccine hesitant and confident. Fear of needles, inconvenience, and perceived long run health risks play smaller roles. The vaccine hesitant hold pessimistic but plausible beliefs about effectiveness but greatly overestimate side-effect risks. We estimate the impact of correcting inaccurate beliefs and potential subsidies on vaccination rates. |
| JEL: | D9 I1 I12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34230 |
| By: | Sophie Massin; Phu Nguyen-Van; Dimitri Dubois; Marc Willinger; Bruno Ventelou |
| Abstract: | How can individuals who have experienced a shock in their addictive consumption trajectories return to their habitual use? As part of a behavioral economics online survey conducted on a representative sample of the French population, we asked respondents to retrospectively quantify their consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and recreational screen use at three moments: before, during, and after the first Covid-19 lockdown. Using a methodology that controls for inter-individual heterogeneity, we test for the presence of a hysteresis effect, i.e. whether the shocks in use that occurred during the lockdown last beyond the end of it and the return to a more normal life. We find persistent hysteresis for the three addictive goods. Studying this hysteresis effect in relation to time preferences, we find that, for tobacco, present-biased individuals exhibit more hysteresis. This hysteresis insight, related to time preferences, offers valuable perspectives for addiction research and policy design addressing population resilience to shocks. |
| Keywords: | Addictive goods; hysteresis; panel data; time preferences; behavioral economics |
| JEL: | C33 D90 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-38 |
| By: | Todd Prono |
| Abstract: | In heavy-tailed cases, variance targeting the Student's-t estimator proposed in Bollerslev (1987) for the linear GARCH model is shown to be robust to density misspecification, just like the popular Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE). The resulting Variance-Targeted, Non-Gaussian, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (VTNGQMLE) is shown to possess a stable limit, albeit one that is highly non-Gaussian, with an ill-defined variance. The rate of convergence to this non-standard limit is slow relative √n and dependent upon unknown parameters. Fortunately, the sub-sample bootstrap is applicable, given a carefully constructed normalization. Surprisingly, both Monte Carlo experiments and empirical applications reveal VTNGQMLE to sizably outperform QMLE and other performance-enhancing (relative to QMLE) alternatives. In an empirical application, VTNGQMLE is applied to VIX (option-implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index). The resulting GARCH variance estimates are then used to forecast option-implied volatility of volatility (VVIX), thus demonstrating a link between historical volatility of VIX and risk-neutral volatility-of-volatility. |
| Keywords: | GARCH; VIX; VVIX; Heavy tails; Robust estimation; Variance forecasting; Volatility; Volatility-of-volatility |
| JEL: | C13 C22 C58 |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-75 |
| By: | Foster, Dugald; Postma, Erik; Lamba, Shakti; Mesoudi, Alex (University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | Explaining how cooperation evolves is a major research programme in the biological and social sciences. In this study we tested evolutionary theories of human cooperation in a real-world social dilemma: joint liability microfinance, in which groups of borrowers must cooperate to successfully repay a shared loan. We used pre-registered Bayesian multilevel models to estimate meta-analytic associations between loan repayment and proxies of four evolutionary mechanisms proposed to support cooperation: relatedness, reciprocity, partner choice, and punishment. A systematic search of the microfinance literature yielded 73 effect estimates for 11 proxies of evolutionary mechanisms analysed in 11 separate meta-analyses. Punishment-based variables showed the strongest positive meta-analytic associations with loan repayment, with mixed results for other mechanisms. However, estimates varied widely in their certainty, with generally high levels of between-study heterogeneity. Our results provide some evidence for evolutionary mechanisms supporting cooperation in real-world contexts, but also indicate there are non-generalisable findings and/or reproducibility issues in the microfinance literature. |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ykfhb_v1 |
| By: | María Paula Álvarez Arboleda (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of consumer preferences in shaping the performance of manufacturing firms in Colombia. I use data from Colombian manufacturing firms between 2000 and 2012 to decompose the contribution of consumer preferences into those attributable to preferences for certain goods (horizontal differentiation) and for particular providers of those goods (vertical differentiation). Employing a model that integrates consumer demand, following a nested CES structure, with firm production, I use key demand parameters to decompose the variance of firm sales into technical efficiency, input costs, and vertical and horizontal differentiation. I find that vertical differentiation plays a dominant role in explaining sales variance (85.9%), while horizontal differentiation and technical efficiency contribute to a lesser extent (26.2% and 29.2%, respectively). These findings underscore the importance of consumer preferences in determining firm outcomes, showing that demand-driven factors, frequently subsumed in productivity measures, outweigh traditional supply-side drivers that explain firms’ performance. |
| Keywords: | size of manufacturing firms; quality; differentiation; productivity; preferences |
| JEL: | L25 L60 O47 D22 D24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021544 |
| By: | Hai Yang; Joseph Y. J. Chow |
| Abstract: | Urban mobility is undergoing rapid transformation with the emergence of new services. Mobility hubs (MHs) have been proposed as physical-digital convergence points, offering a range of public and private mobility options in close proximity. By supporting Mobility-as-a-Service, these hubs can serve as focal points where travel decisions intersect with operator strategies. We develop a bilevel MH platform design model that treats MHs as control levers. The upper level (platform) maximizes revenue or flow by setting subsidies to incentivize last-mile operators; the lower level captures joint traveler-operator decisions with a link-based Perturbed Utility Route Choice (PURC) assignment, yielding a strictly convex quadratic program. We reformulate the bilevel problem to a single-level program via the KKT conditions of the lower level and solve it with a gap-penalty method and an iterative warm-start scheme that exploits the computationally cheap lower-level problem. Numerical experiments on a toy network and a Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) case (244 nodes, 469 links, 78 ODs) show that the method attains sub-1% optimality gaps in minutes. In the base LIRR case, the model allows policymakers to quantify the social surplus value of a MH, or the value of enabling subsidy or regulating the microtransit operator's pricing. Comparing link-based subsidies to hub-based subsidies, the latter is computationally more expensive but offers an easier mechanism for comparison and control. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.10465 |
| By: | Vasily Melnikov |
| Abstract: | We consider the optimal risk sharing problem with a continuum of agents, modeled via a non-atomic measure space. Individual preferences are not assumed to be convex. We show the multiplicity of agents induces the value function to be convex, allowing for the application of convex duality techniques to risk sharing without preference convexity. The proof in the finite-dimensional case is based on aggregate convexity principles emanating from Lyapunov convexity, while the infinite-dimensional case uses the finite-dimensional results conjoined with approximation arguments particular to a class of law invariant risk measures, although the reference measure is allowed to vary between agents. Finally, we derive a computationally tractable formula for the conjugate of the value function, yielding an explicit dual representation of the value function. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.08832 |
| By: | Kensei Nakamura; Shohei Yanagita |
| Abstract: | Completeness and transitivity are standard rationality conditions in economics. However, under ambiguity, decision makers sometimes violate these requirements because of the difficulty of forming accurate predictions about ambiguous events. Motivated by this, we study various ambiguity preferences that partially satisfy completeness and transitivity. Our characterization results show that completeness and a novel yet natural weakening of transitivity correspond to two opposite ways of using multiple probability distributions in mind; that is, these two axioms have dual implications at the level of cognitive processes for ambiguity. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.11660 |
| By: | Wenze Li |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple modification to the wild bootstrap procedure and establish its asymptotic validity for linear regression models with many covariates and heteroskedastic errors. Monte Carlo simulations show that the modified wild bootstrap has excellent finite sample performance compared with alternative methods that are based on standard normal critical values, especially when the sample size is small and/or the number of controls is of the same order of magnitude as the sample size. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.20972 |