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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Redding, Stephen J. |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent quantitative urban models. These models are sufficiently rich to capture observed features of the data, such as many asymmetric locations and a rich geography of the transport network. Yet these models remain sufficiently tractable as to permit an analytical characterization of their theoretical properties. With only a small number of structural parameters (elasticities) to be estimated, they lend themselves to transparent identification. As they rationalize the observed spatial distribution of economic activity within cities, they can be used to undertake counterfactuals for the impact of empirically-realistic public-policy interventions on this observed distribution. Empirical applications include estimating the strength of agglomeration economies and evaluating the impact of transport infrastructure improvements (e.g., railroads, roads, Rapid Bus Transit Systems), zoning and land use regulations, place-based policies, and new technologies such as remote working. |
| Keywords: | cities; commuting; transportation; urban economics |
| JEL: | N0 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126838 |
| By: | Hatta, Tatsuo; Ikeda, Shinsuke; Hoshina, Hiroki |
| Abstract: | Japan's rapid growth in the 1960s was accompanied by a massive migration from rural to urban areas. However, immediately after 1970, migration declined sharply, and at the same time, the rate of economic growth plummeted.To explain this decline in urban-bound migration, we estimated the urban-bound migration function.The estimation reveals that in the 1970s, the largest factor contributing to the decline in this migration was the relative increase in per capita income in rural areas. The second most important factor was narrowing regional disparities in the job-to- application ratio. In addition, the relative increase in the stock of social capital in the local regions also contributed. However, the population change in the rural areas had negligible effects on urban-bound migration in the 1970s.This paper also demonstrates that the relative increase in per capita income in rural areas is largely due to policy- based regional redistribution, implying that the large-scale redistribution of the fruits of rapid economic growth to rural areas halted urban-bound migration and reduced the growth rate. This suggests that for developing countries experiencing high growth, curbing the political pressure to redistribute to rural areas may be important to sustain the growth. |
| Keywords: | Geographic Labor Mobility, regional migration, growth rate, income redistribution to rural areas |
| JEL: | R11 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000145 |
| By: | Hilber, Christian A. L.; Turner, Tracy M. |
| Abstract: | We examine the role that housing market regulatory restrictiveness plays in differentially affecting the net wealth of owners and renters over time, and its contribution to wealth inequality. In tightly regulated desirable cities, house prices and rents rise strongly in response to growing demand. Rising prices financially benefit existing homeowners. Rising rents hurt renters. Because credit constraints prevent many households from becoming homeowners, this can lead to growing differences in wealth accumulation between homeowners and renters and, consequently, rising wealth inequality. Employing the confidential version of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we explore to what extent changes in household net wealth can be explained by regulatory restrictiveness and demand shock-induced spatial differences in house price growth. We find that, accounting for sorting, a household with average characteristics that owns instead of rents in a tightly regulated location accumulates 56% more in net wealth between 1999 and 2019. This effect explains 59% of the observed difference in net wealth accumulation between actual owners and renters in these locations, consistent with an observed increase in the Gini-coefficient of wealth inequality during our sample period of 13%. In less regulated metro areas, we do not find a difference in wealth accumulation by homeownership status nor rising wealth inequality. Examining homeowners only and accounting for sorting, our findings suggest that if a homeowner with average characteristics had resided in a tightly rather than loosely regulated metro area, their predicted twenty-year net wealth increase would be 81% higher. We examine transition and timing effects and find theoretically plausible results that the housing boom yielded net wealth changes that varied by regulatory status, but the housing bust did not. We conduct robustness checks that examine the potential endogeneity of initial homeownership, account for unobserved heterogeneity and test for homeowner cash-out/reinvest behavior. In a falsification test, we show that our findings cannot be explained by correlations between local house price growth, a rising college premium and local variation in stock investment behavior. Taken as a whole, our findings imply that expected gains provide powerful financial incentives to existing homeowners in tightly regulated markets to maintain regulatory stringency, further exacerbating housing unaffordability and wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | land use regulation; wealth accumulation; wealth inequality; house prices; housing rents; housing supply; housing affordability |
| JEL: | R11 R21 R31 R52 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126794 |
| By: | Pablo D. Fajgelbaum; Cecile Gaubert |
| Abstract: | We revisit the rationale for place-based policies using a canonical urban framework with agglomeration spillovers. We derive six main lessons. First, the spatial allocation is inefficient even when spillover elasticities are constant across regions. Second, under constant and positive spillover elasticities, the optimal policy is a national wage subsidy funded by a lump sum tax, reallocating activity towards higher wage locations. Third, more generally, a region's optimal labor subsidy rate equals its spillover elasticity. Fourth, place-based policies that favor low-wage locations on efficiency grounds are justified when density has negative spillover effects, spillover elasticities are higher in low-wage locations, or across-skill spillovers favor more mixing in low-wage locations. Fifth, government spending on infrastructure, investment incentives, or housing policies cannot fully correct externalities from labor density. Sixth, housing supply elasticities do not affect the design of first-best place-based policies targeting agglomeration spillovers. |
| JEL: | H21 H23 R12 R13 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33517 |
| By: | Peng, Xue |
| Abstract: | Anecdotal evidence from multiple cities suggests that short videos boostdestination awareness and subsequently, tourism visitation. TikTok has nowbecome one of the most popular short video platforms and accordingly, hasattracted intensive attention from the tourism industry and scholars querying theimplications. While previous tourism studies have primarily concentrated on theplatform's viewers and user-generated content, studies focused on travel vloggersare scarce, and their roles in tourism development remain understudied. This studyutilizes big data from TikTok in China and employs spatial analysis to investigatethe distribution characteristics and impacts of travel vloggers in regional tourismdevelopment. The spatial analysis methods utilized include Moran's I index andGeodetector. The Moran's I analysis results indicate that cities with a similarnumber of travel vloggers tend to be clustered; however, this tendency is higherwith regard to non-travel-themed vloggers. The Geodetector results reveal thattravel vloggers significantly influence provincial tourist arrivals, demonstratinglarger impacts than conventional variables such as scenic areas, travel agencies, and transport infrastructure. The most crucial factor contributing to the impact oftravel vloggers is their number. This is followed by their productivity in terms ofthe number of videos they upload, which wields a larger impact than the shares orlikes they receive. Within the productivity metric, the cumulative productivity oftravel vloggers from previous years exerts a higher influence than their recentproductivity from the past year. Interestingly, the number of their followers doesnot necessarily impact regional tourist arrivals. These insights can assistpolicymakers and practitioners in leveraging vloggers for regional tourismdevelopment. |
| Keywords: | travel vloggers, TikTok, regional tourism development, big data, spatial analysis methods, Geodetector, Moran's I index |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000103 |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | The recent development of quantitative urban models provides a new set of tools for evaluating transport improvements. Conventional cost-benefit analyses are typically undertaken in partial equilibrium. In contrast, quantitative urban models characterize the spatial distribution of economic activity within cities in general equilibrium. We compare evaluations of a transport improvement using conventional cost-benefit analysis, sufficient statistics approaches based on changes in market access, and model-based counterfactuals. We show that quantitative urban models predict a reorganization of economic activity within cities in response to a transport improvement, which can lead to substantial differences between the predictions of these three approaches for large changes in transport costs. |
| JEL: | R30 R40 R52 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33532 |
| By: | Ding, Kaijing; Hansen, Mark PhD |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the impact of high-speed rail on accessibility to employment and educational opportunities for the census tracts in the California Central Valley. The accessibility is assessed for driving only mode and transit only mode for the baseline scenario and driving plus HSR mode and transit plus HSR mode for the scenario after HSR start operation. We plot the accessibility distribution for census tracts and calculate the spatial equality index of accessibility distribution to compare the accessibility before and after HSR starts operation, as well as the accessibility for communities of concern (CoCs). Our findings include multiple aspects. Most importantly, we find that HSR yields the greatest accessibility gains to the most vulnerable communities, which we term CoC Level 2 and Level 3 communities. This improvement is attained for both employment and education accessibility, and whether HSR access/egress is by driving or transit. Second, it is also the case that vulnerable communities have higher baseline accessibilities as a result of being located in urban areas. Third, HSR accessibility gains are restricted to higher travel time thresholds, generally 60 min or greater. Fourth, driving mode has consistently higher accessibility as well as accessibility improvement due to HSR than transit mode. Fifth, while the accessibility improvement brought by HSR is highly spatially uneven, HSR slightly equalizes the distribution of accessibility across census tracts under the driving + HSR scenario. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Accessibility, Transportation equity, High speed rail, Underserved communities, Mode choice, Rural areas |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9r24358s |
| By: | Dominguez, Alvaro |
| Abstract: | We study the spatial distribution of air pollutants in Honshu and Kyushu, before and after the Fukushima incident in 2011. For this, we use satellite data at the municipal level of fine particulate matter and ozone concentrations, along with population density, accessibility to cities, and night lights. We rely on dependence analysis and an algorithm to endogenously partition and classify municipalities into different clusters, based on their geographic andsimilar attributes, for the period under study. From the spatial analysis we are able to observe the specific locations of the hot spots (high-value clusters) and cold spots (low value clusters). These clusters reveal high positive correlations between air pollution and economic activity, throughout the years that we study. Furthermore, the regionalization analysis we perform partitions Honshu and Kyushu into different geographical regions that are intertemporally robust, allowing us to detect locations where targeting policies can improve the air quality of the population. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Japan, Regionalization, Spatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000198 |
| By: | Dominguez, Alvaro; Li, Jiaqi; Mendez, Carlos |
| Abstract: | Relying on a novel satellite dataset, we examine the spatial distribution of air pollution, specifically PM2.5, and income across 285 Chinese prefectural and above-level cities. A static spatial dependence analysis reveals the locations of high-value clusters (hot spots) and low-value clusters (cold spots), highlighting a strong negative assosiation between income and air pollution. Then, through dynamic spatial clustering techniques, we study the intertemporal relationship between air pollution and income and find a polarization effect between different regions. Our integrated approach demonstrates how these analyses complement each other in identifying regions where policies to enhance air standards can improve the population's quality of life. |
| Keywords: | Air Pollution, China, Local Indicators of Spatial Association |
| JEL: | C15 O33 P11 P18 Q42 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000084 |
| By: | Fidel Bennett (Ministry of Labor, Chile); Dante Contreras (University of Chile); Matias Morales (Tulane University); Felipe Subiabre (Stanford University School of Medicine) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact on academic achievement of attendance of a private voucher school (PVS), a type of privately managed but publicly funded institution in Chile. We leverage the centralized school choice system (CSCS), which randomizes assignment of seats to both traditional public schools (TPSs) and PVSs when they are oversubscribed and there are ties among applicants. Consecutive iterations of the algorithm allow us to recover the probability of a PVS assignment; conditional on this probability, receipt of a PVS seat offer is as good as random. We find no performance differences four years after assignment between TPS and PVS 4th graders. We do find positive effects of PVS attendance for students who, at the end of 8th grade, must switch schools due to grade configuration and reapply through the CSCS to enter 9th grade in a new school. We observe the outcomes of these students in 10th and 12th grades; those in PVSs perform better by between 0.06 and 0.17\sigma than their TPS peers. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that these results are driven by the fact that students who fail to gain access to a PVS opt for the fully private sector, thus inducing negative selection in the comparison group of students in TPS. |
| Keywords: | private schools, centralized school choice system, vouchers system |
| JEL: | I22 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2504 |
| By: | Leonardo Boncinelli; Stefania Miricola; Eugenio Vicario |
| Abstract: | The concept of quality of life in urban settings is increasingly associated to the accessibility of amenities within a short walking distance for residents. However, this narrative still requires thorough empirical investigation to evaluate the practical implications, benefits, and challenges. In this work, we propose a novel methodology for evaluating urban accessibility to services, with an application to the city of Florence, Italy. Our approach involves identifying the accessibility of essential services from residential buildings within a 10-minute walking distance, employing a rigorous spatial analysis process and open-source geospatial data. As a second contribution, we extend the concept of 10-minute accessibility within a network theory framework and apply a clustering algorithm to identify urban communities based on shared access to essential services. Finally, we explore the dimension of functional redundancy. Our proposed metrics represent a step forward towards an accurate assessment of the adherence to the 10-minute city model and offer a valuable tool for place-based policies aimed at addressing spatial disparities in urban development. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.12934 |
| By: | Albuquerque, Daniel (Bank of England); Lazarowicz, Thomas (University College, London); Lenney, Jamie (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | The simultaneous rise in housing rents and interest rates over 2022–24 brought scrutiny to the interaction between monetary policy and the housing market. We start by providing evidence on this interaction using data from the United Kingdom and a high frequency identification. Our main empirical finding is that house prices and rents do not move together after an increase in interest rates. House prices fall strongly but gradually, reaching their trough after one year, while nominal rents are stable for one to two years, before eventually falling. Next, we develop a quantitative Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model that includes housing and rental sectors. In particular, we model individual landlords as the marginal providers of rental housing. We use the model to examine the housing channel of monetary policy where we find: (1) the housing channel is large and falls disproportionality on mortgagors; (2) deviations from rational expectations mean landlords largely fail to pass on mortgage costs and act more like wealthy hand to mouth; (3) these behavioural biases dampen the potential trade-off between prices and output induced by the rental market; and (4) that it may be optimal for monetary policy makers to look through and accommodate housing supply shocks. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; housing; heterogeneous agents |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E52 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1115 |
| By: | Sean E. McCulloch; Matthew P. Schaelling; Matthew Turner; Toru Kitagawa |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of sewer access on neighborhood characteristics in developing world cities. Because it is more difficult to move sewage uphill than downhill, otherwise similar neighborhoods on opposite sides of drainage basin divides may face different costs of sewer access. We exploit this intuition to identify the effect of sewer access by comparing outcomes for neighborhoods on opposite sides of drainage basin divides. We estimate the effect of sewer access on census tract population density, literacy, and income for Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, Jordan, and Tanzania. On average, sewer access has a large effect on population density and almost none on demographics. These estimates imply that sewer networks are often as important for the economic geography of cities as transportation networks. |
| JEL: | L97 O18 R3 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33597 |
| By: | Mika Akesaka (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Hitoshi Shigeoka (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo, JAPAN, Department of Economics and David Lam Centre, Simon Fraser University, CANADA, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), GERMANY, and National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER), U.S.A.) |
| Abstract: | This study demonstrates that heat disproportionately impairs human capital accumulation among low-performing students compared with their high-performing peers, using nationwide examination data from 22 million students in Japan. Given the strong correlation between academic performance and socioeconomic background, this suggests that heat exposure exacerbates pre-existing socioeconomic disparities among children. However, access to air conditioning in schools significantly mitigates these adverse effects across all achievement levels, with particularly pronounced benefits for lower-performing students. These findings suggest that public investment in school infrastructure can help reduce the unevenly distributed damage caused by heat to student learning, thereby promoting both efficiency and equity. |
| Keywords: | Heat; Distributional impact; Student achievement; Adaptation; Air conditioning; Children; Climate change |
| JEL: | I21 I24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-07 |
| By: | Rebecca Diamond; Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the role of spatial sorting in shaping economic inequality in the United States. We first document the evolution of firm and worker sorting by skill level between 1980 and 2017. We highlight a shift since 2000, where both high-education workers and firms increasingly sort away from high-wage, high-rent areas. Throughout the entire time period, high-education workers continue to sort to high amenity areas. We then develop a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates idiosyncratic worker and firm sorting and discuss estimation techniques to identify model parameters. We review recent empirical advancements in spatial sorting, including firm and worker location choices and their interactions with housing policy. We conclude by outlining the model’s limitations and proposing directions for future research. |
| JEL: | J2 R1 R2 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33609 |
| By: | Marco Di Cataldo; Elena Renzullo; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first analysis of how local institutional quality affects the distribution of EU funds across private beneficiaries, public entities, and local governments. Using high-quality Italian administrative data on city council dismissals due to collusion with organised crime, we examine whether corruption affects municipal control over EU resources. Applying a staggered difference-in-differences model and event studies, we find that corrupt local governments receive significantly fewer EU funds for their own operations, particularly in transport infrastructure and essential public services. However, this is not a consequence of efficient corruption detection, but rather a strategic choice. Corrupt administrations avoid larger EU projects to sidestep stricter anti-mafia regulations. This distortion weakens Cohesion Policy’s impact, deprives communities of critical investment, and hampers local economic growth. While Italy’s anti-mafia laws appear effective in blocking criminal access to EU funds, our findings expose the adaptability of organised crime, which simply switches its operations below existing regulatory thresholds. The takeaway is clear: good institutions matter. Where corruption thrives, EU funds do not disappear entirely, but they flow differently: less to infrastructure, more to smaller, more opaque projects. Stronger oversight is essential to ensure that Cohesion Policy delivers on its promise. |
| Keywords: | Quality of institution, EU Cohesion Policy, city council dismissals, organised crime |
| JEL: | H7 H11 H77 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2510 |
| By: | Jabbour, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | Do housing prices influence how individuals perceive their economic standing? Recent research linking housing prices to electoral outcomes suggests that they do. The theoretical expectation is that individuals update their economic perceptions based on housing costs and vote accordingly. However, it remains empirically untested whether housing prices trigger an economic reaction, and if so, whether this pertains to individual economic standing or sociotropic ones such as the national economy or the level of inequality. Testing this expectation is essential since other theoretical paths could explain the assumed link between housing prices and political reactions. This paper interrogates this key assumption by testing whether renters and owners react differently to housing market information. In two experiments conducted in the United States and Canada, treatments inform participants about local housing costs. Informing respondents about the cost of home ownership in their locality triggers economic anxiety among renters, but not all homeowners since only economically at-risk owners exhibit attitudes akin to renters. The results are important for our understanding of the political consequences of surging housing prices and its potential link with anti-establishment vote. The study shed light on the economic anxiety this may generate and identify the groups most affected. |
| Date: | 2025–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3smwj_v1 |
| By: | Javiera Selman |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first evaluation of a rental voucher program in a middle-income country:Chile. I estimate treatment effects before and after the COVID-19 outbreak using a local randomization regression discontinuity design and administrative and survey data. Pre-pandemic results mirror U.S. evidence: voucher receipt improved housing conditions and increased mobility but did not lead to relocation to higher-quality neighborhoods. Postpandemic results (November 2020) show that vouchers helped low-income families cope with the aggregate shock by reducing reliance on debt and enhancing housing stability. Findings highlight a previously underappreciated insurance role of rental subsidies during periods of economic distress. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp563 |
| By: | Hoang-Anh Le |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between house prices and capital inflows in ASEAN emerging economies, and the impact of institutional quality on that relation. Using a unique balanced panel data set of six emerging countries in ASEAN from 2009 to 2019, we employ various econometric techniques to examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the house price index. Our findings indicate a long-run relationship and Granger causality from FDI to the house price index in these markets, and we also find evidence of co-movement between the stock price index and the house price index. Additionally, our results suggest that better institutions reduce the impact of FDI on host country housing markets in the context of ASEAN emerging economies. This is one of the first studies to shed light on the role of institutional quality in the effect of FDIs on housing prices in this region. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.13459 |
| By: | Virat Agrawal; Richard K. Green; Neeraj Sood; Christopher M. Whaley |
| Abstract: | Housing expense inflation has historically averaged an annual growth rate of 3.0 percent. However, starting in early 2021 housing expense inflation surged, peaking at 8.2 percent by March 2023. Substance use also increased concurrently. This study investigates the impact of rising housing expenses on household purchases of alcohol and tobacco. The relationship is ambiguous: higher housing costs could reduce spending on these items due to constrained disposable income or increase them as a coping mechanism for financial stress. To identify the effects of housing expense inflation we utilize exogenous variation in county-level housing regulations and exposure to housing expense inflation, which affects renters and homeowners differently as homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages are less impacted. In particular, we employ a difference-in-difference-in-difference (DDD) approach, comparing changes in alcohol and tobacco purchases between renters and homeowners, before and after the housing expense surge, across counties with varying housing regulation levels. Our findings reveal that a 1-unit increase in our housing regulation index—equivalent to moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile—correlates with an additional $28.70 (about 15.6 percent) monthly increase in out-of-pocket housing expenses per household member for renters relative to homeowners between 2019 and 2022. This increase is also associated with a 26 to 38 percent rise in financial difficulties among renters compared to homeowners. Furthermore, the same regulatory increase corresponds to a 15.2 percent rise in monthly beer purchases per member among renters relative to homeowners in 2022 compared to 2019, driven largely by low-cost beer. However, we find no significant effect on monthly household purchases of liquor, wine, or cigarettes. |
| JEL: | D1 G5 I1 I12 I3 R28 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33534 |
| By: | Rogers, Ben; da Cruz, Nuno F.; Heeckt, Catarina; Hamilton-Jones, Imogen; Ripa, Francesco; Ellaway, Louise; Charles, Lucie; Kaune, Marie; Li, Sinan |
| Abstract: | Europe’s cities have long been at the cutting edge of civic innovation. But the challenges they are facing – climate crisis, pandemics, growing inequalities, migration, populism, new technologies – can feel increasingly daunting. Over the last two years, LSE Cities has been working on a new initiative to support Europe’s urban governments as they navigate the complex challenges ahead. The European Cities Programme, a research, engagement and capacity building programme supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies, brings together city leaders, policy makers and civil society movements from across the continent to plan pathways towards more just, sustainable and democratic futures. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127634 |
| By: | John N. Friedman; Bruce Sacerdote; Douglas O. Staiger; Michele Tine |
| Abstract: | We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores also exhibit no calibration bias, as they do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. |
| JEL: | I20 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33570 |
| By: | Hannes Wallimann; Noah Balthasar |
| Abstract: | Children's travel behavior plays a critical role in shaping long-term mobility habits and public health outcomes. Despite growing global interest, little is known about the factors influencing travel mode choice of children for school journeys in Switzerland. This study addresses this gap by applying a random forest classifier - a machine learning algorithm - to data from the Swiss Mobility and Transport Microcensus, in order to identify key predictors of children's travel mode choice for school journeys. Distance consistently emerges as the most important predictor across all models, for instance when distinguishing between active vs. non-active travel or car vs. non-car usage. The models show relatively high performance, with overall classification accuracy of 87.27% (active vs. non-active) and 78.97% (car vs. non-car), respectively. The study offers empirically grounded insights that can support school mobility policies and demonstrates the potential of machine learning in uncovering behavioral patterns in complex transport datasets. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.09947 |
| By: | Marchal, Léa; Ourens, Guzmán; Sabbadini, Giulia |
| Abstract: | We show that high-skilled immigrants earn higher wages than comparable natives in exporting firms, while low-skilled immigrants do not. Using matched employer-employee and customs data from Portugal, we document a reversal of the migrant-native wage gap among high-skilled workers in exporting firms. We develop a model with heterogeneous firms and directed search, in which high-skilled immigrants lower export costs through destination-specific knowledge. The model yields an information premium that explains the wage gap reversal. We provide evidence consistent with this mechanism using information on the origin country of the workers and the destination country of the firm's exports. Our results identify a novel channel through which trade reduces wage inequality conditional on the skill level and origin country of the employees, and provide new micro-level evidence on the role of workers in shaping firm-level internationalisation. |
| Keywords: | Export, Firm, Immigrant, Wage |
| JEL: | F14 F22 F16 J15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:316450 |
| By: | Dominguez, Alvaro |
| Abstract: | We investigate the spatial distribution of air pollutants in Japan, South Korea, and China for the year 2021. Our analysis utilizes satellite data on fine particulate matter at the municipal/county level, along with population density, vegetation difference, and night lights. Using dependence analysis and a clustering method to classify municipalities and counties based on geographical and similar attributes, we delineate distinct clusters within each country. Furthermore, through this spatial examination, we identify consistent positive correlations between air pollution and economic activity in each country. These methods allow us to detect areas where targeted policies can effectively enhance air quality for the population. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Japan, South Korea, China, Spatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000199 |
| By: | Yang Liang; Joseph J. Sabia; Dhaval M. Dave |
| Abstract: | Leveraging county-level variation in exposure to industry-specific foreign-based robotics shocks, this study is the first to explore the relationship between U.S. robotics expansions and crime. Instrumental variables estimates show that a 10 percent increase in robotics exposure led to a 0.2 to 0.3 percent increase in property crime arrests. In contrast, we find little evidence of a relationship between robotics expansions and violent crime. Our estimates are consistent with robotics-induced declines in employment and earnings among low-skilled manufacturing workers. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that during the period over which robotics exposure induced adverse employment effects, such exposure generated approximately $322 million (2024$) in additional crime costs nationally. |
| JEL: | D24 J20 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33603 |
| By: | Hunt, Jennifer; Cockburn, Iain; Bessen, James |
| Abstract: | Using our own data on artificial intelligence publications merged with Burning Glass vacancy data for 2007-2019, we investigate whether online vacancies for jobs requiring AI skills grow more slowly in US locations farther from pre-2007 AI innovation hotspots. We find that a commuting zone which is an additional 200km (125 miles) from the closest AI hotspot has 17% lower growth in AI jobs' share of vacancies. This is driven by distance from AI papers rather than AI patents. Distance reduces growth in AI research jobs as well as in jobs adapting AI to new industries, as evidenced by strong effects for computer and mathematical researchers, developers of software applications, and the finance and insurance industry. 20% of the effect is explained by the presence of state borders between some commuting zones and their closest hotspot. This could reflect state borders impeding migration and thus flows of tacit knowledge. Distance does not capture difficulty of in-person or remote collaboration nor knowledge and personnel flows within multi-establishment firms hiring in computer occupations. |
| Keywords: | technological change; economic geography; growth; technology adoption and diffusion |
| JEL: | O33 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126840 |
| By: | Benjamin Feigenberg; Conrad Miller |
| Abstract: | We examine class disparities and discrimination in police searches and stops using data on traffic stops conducted by Texas Highway Patrol. Low-income motorists are more likely to be searched for contraband, less likely to be found with contraband when searched, and more likely to be stopped for infractions associated with pretext stops. We measure class-based discrimination in searches per potential stop, accounting for both the search and stop margins. Our research design leverages motorists stopped in multiple vehicles conveying different class signals. Motorists are more likely to be searched when stopped in a low-status vehicle, and evidence suggests that they are also more likely to be stopped when driving one. Marginal searches triggered by vehicle status are also less likely to yield contraband when the motorist is low-income. We argue that lower hassle costs associated with arrests of low-income motorists help explain trooper behavior. |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33629 |
| By: | Alessio Baldassarre (Ministry of Economy and Finance); Danilo Carullo (Ministry of Economy and Finance) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of a targeted tax credit introduced by the 2016 Stability Law and designed to stimulate investment in Italy’s Southern regions. Employing a new sub-national Computable General Equilibrium model tailored to Italy, the study captures national and regional effects by leveraging a Social Accounting Matrix that details the interconnections between commodities, sectors, and agents, encompassing both regional and national fiscal structures. The analysis considers the direct impacts of the tax credit on the targeted Southern regions as well as the indirect spillovers on non-beneficiary regions, contributing to the ongoing discussion on North-South convergence. Our findings show a modest increase in all components of national GDP, with more substantial regional effects, particularly in Southern Italy, with spillover benefits reaching the Center and North in the medium and long term. The regional fiscal multipliers are positive and align with the literature. Additionally, the cross-regional analysis reveals that Southern GDP growth positively influences Northern regions, indicating a degree of economic integration across Italy. The tax credit policy also appears to slow the widening of the North-South value-added gap, supporting gradual regional convergence. However, the measure does not achieve full fiscal self-coverage through increased tax revenues, resulting in a net fiscal cost for the central government. |
| Keywords: | CGE, policy impact, investment tax credit, regional convergence |
| JEL: | C63 D58 E22 H32 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahg:wpaper:wp2025-21 |
| By: | Xu, Lei |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technologies in the smart transportation infrastructure of Shenzhen between 2024 and 2025. It analyzes Shenzhen's electrification of public transport, integration of AI for traffic signal optimization, and deployment of AI-enhanced passenger safety systems. The paper also examines the role of blockchain in ensuring secure, decentralized data exchange, and energy trading protocols for electric vehicles. Additionally, challenges such as data interoperability, security, and ethical governance are discussed. The findings provide insights into how emerging technologies can transform urban mobility and establish a replicable model for global smart city development. |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:yn67b_v1 |
| By: | Samuel K. Hughes; Joseph B. Nichols |
| Abstract: | As financial intermediaries, banks have a key role in producing information and managing the risks on diverse loan portfolios. An important input into this process is ongoing collection of financial performance from borrowers. Using supervisory data on commercial real estate loans (CRE), this paper studies relationships between the content and timeliness of borrower-reported performance, internal bank risk ratings, and subsequent loan performance. Banks heavily rely on borrower reporting when setting risk ratings, despite the fact that borrowers with stale financials are more likely to default. Although banks can generally be slow to update their ratings as information becomes more stale on average, we find causal evidence that they do monitor more intensively in response to loan, location and portfolio risks. |
| Keywords: | Bank monitoring; Risk management; Commercial real estate mortgages; Financial performance reporting |
| JEL: | G14 G21 G32 R33 |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-32 |
| By: | Barrios-Fernández, Andrés; Neilson, Christopher; Zimmerman, Seth |
| Abstract: | Do elite colleges help talented students join the social elite, or help incumbent elites retain their positions? We combine intergenerationally-linked data from Chile with a regression discontinuity design to show that, looking across generations, elite colleges do both. Lower-status individuals who gain admission to elite college programs transform their children's social environment. Children become more likely to attend high-status private schools and colleges, and to live near and befriend high-status peers. In contrast, academic achievement is unaffected. Simulations combining descriptive and quasi-experimental findings show that elite colleges tighten the link between social and human capital while decreasing intergenerational social mobility. |
| Keywords: | elite universities; intergenerational mobility; human capital; social capital |
| JEL: | D64 J62 I20 |
| Date: | 2024–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126793 |
| By: | Tom\'a\v{s} Evan; Eva Fi\v{s}erov\'a; Aneta Elgnerov\'a |
| Abstract: | UN migration data and Hofstede's six cultural dimensions make it possible to find a connection between migration patterns and culture from a longterm perspective. Migrant patterns have been studied from the perspective of both immigrants and OECD host countries. This study tests two hypotheses: first, that the number of migrants leaving for OECD countries is influenced by cultural similarities to the host country; and second, that OECD host countries are more likely to accept culturally close migrants. Both hypotheses were tested using the Mann/Whitney U test for 93 countries between 1995 and 2015. The relationship between cultural and geodesic distance also analysed. The results indicate that cultural proximity significantly influences migration patterns, although the impact varies across countries. About two/thirds of OECD countries show a positive correlation between cultural similarity and geographic proximity, with notable exceptions, such as New Zealand and Australia, which exhibit a negative correlation. Countries such as Colombia, Denmark, and Japan maintain cultural distance, even from their neighbouring countries. Migrants from wealthier countries tend to select culturally similar destinations, whereas those from poorer countries often migrate to culturally distant destinations. Approximately half of OECD countries demonstrate a statistically significant bias towards accepting culturally close migrants. The results of this study highlight the importance of a critical debate that recognises and accepts the influence of culture on migration patterns. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.08443 |
| By: | Samuel Bazzi; Masyhur Hilmy; Benjamin Marx; Mahvish Shaukat; Andreas Stegmann |
| Abstract: | In many countries, local governments struggle with inefficiency and corruption, often perpetuated by entrenched elites. This paper explores how leadership changes affect local bureaucratic performance. Combining personnel and citizen surveys with a regression discontinuity design in a large sample of Indonesian villages, we show that turnovers in village elections revitalize local bureaucracies, disrupt nepotistic networks, and improve local government performance. Bureaucrats serving new leaders are more engaged and less likely to be tied to past or present village officials, resulting in a more responsive bureaucracy that interacts more with citizens and better understands their needs. This improves public service provision, measured in both administrative data and citizen surveys. Overall, our results show that leadership changes can mitigate elite capture and improve governance at the grassroots level. |
| JEL: | D73 H41 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33533 |
| By: | Friedman, Sam; Gronwald, Victoria; Summers, Andrew; Taylor, Emma |
| Abstract: | Many countries are concerned about the migration of top taxpayers. Yet we know little about how economic elites weigh the taxes they pay when deciding where to live. Existing evidence on tax flight is either quantitative or comes from wealthy individuals issuing warnings in the media. Drawing on in-depth interviews with thirty-five individuals in the top 1 per cent of the wealth distribution in the UK, we find a striking stigma attached to tax migration. Participants disparaged those who move for tax purposes and several characterized low-tax destinations as boring and culturally barren. Yet the most important factor restraining tax migration was the attachment to London as a place to work and live, particularly its unparalleled highbrow cultural infrastructure. These findings demonstrate that wealthy individuals often choose to prioritize investments in place-specific cultural capital above the relatively small gains in economic capital associated with tax migration. |
| Keywords: | tax; tax migration; cultural capital; wealth |
| JEL: | F22 H21 H24 J61 K34 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126860 |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University) |
| Abstract: | OSMnx is a Python package for downloading, modeling, analyzing, and visualizing urban networks and any other geospatial features from OpenStreetMap data. A large and growing body of literature uses it to conduct scientific studies across the disciplines of geography, urban planning, transport engineering, computer science, and others. The OSMnx project has recently developed and implemented many new features, modeling capabilities, and analytical methods. The package now encompasses substantially more functionality than was previously documented in the literature. This article introduces OSMnx's modern capabilities, usage, and design---in addition to the scientific theory and logic underlying them. It shares lessons learned in geospatial software development and reflects on open science's implications for urban modeling and analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d5fp3_v1 |
| By: | Giovanni Abbiati; Erich Battistin; Paola Monti; Paolo Pinotti |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a labor market integration program that fast-tracked asylum seekers into the Italian labor market through personalized job mentoring, placement assistance, and on-the-job training. Leveraging randomized assignment across reception centers and individual-level administrative records, we find effects on employment rates of 10 percentage points, or 30% over the baseline, over a 18-month period. The program also improved job quality through increased access to fixed-term and open-ended contracts. Subsidized internships were a critical pathway to transitioning participants into standard employment. Survey data indicate that these effects reflect a net increase in employment, rather than a shift from informal to formal jobs. We also document broader benefits on socioeconomic integration, including language proficiency and social networks with native Italians. |
| Keywords: | asylum seekers, job mentoring, labor market integration, socioeconomic integration. |
| JEL: | C93 D04 F22 I38 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11844 |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Adam Storeygard |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys new data sources employed in urban and regional economics in the past decade and the insights they have enabled. We first provide a primer on the data sources, including advantages, disadvantages and use cases. Historical data sources include linked census records as well as digitized maps and directories. Contemporary data come from satellites, mobile phones, social media and wikis, posted prices and listings, e-commerce and payment card transactions, newly available administrative sources, and text, among others. We then discuss the advances these data have enabled in substantive areas throughout urban and regional economics, with historical and contemporary examples in each area. We conclude with some predictions and warnings |
| JEL: | R0 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33561 |
| By: | Ying Fan; Ziying Fan; Yiyi Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how dynamic changes in the search environment affect consumer search and purchase behavior. We develop a dynamic model that incorporates a non-stationary search environment and propose a feasible estimation procedure to estimate its parameters. We apply our model and estimation procedure to the Beijing housing market, utilizing detailed data on consumers' complete search records. We show that accounting for dynamics is crucial for accurately estimating search costs. Additionally, we find that search environment dynamics have a significant impact on consumer decisions and welfare. Housing supply policies that alter search environment dynamics---by increasing the number of new listings and slowing down price increases---benefit consumers, primarily by incentivizing longer searches, more property visits, and ultimately leading to purchases that yield higher utility. |
| JEL: | D8 L8 R3 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33528 |
| By: | Fernanda Marquez-Padilla; Susan W. Parker; Tom S. Vogl |
| Abstract: | Mexico’s pioneering conditional cash transfer program Progresa, later renamed Prospera, operated over two decades in a shifting policy landscape. We exploit the program's sudden and unexpected rollback to estimate whether, two decades after rollout studies documented its initial impacts on schooling and labor, the program still raised enrollment and reduced work in youth. Comparing areas with high and low program penetration before and after rollback, we find that rollback immediately reduced school enrollment, especially in boys of high school age. Effects on enrollment were larger at rollback than they were at rollout, albeit shifted from middle school ages to high school ages. Rising work mirrored falling enrollment in boys of high school age. Our results suggest the program had successfully adapted to the rise of high school, but Mexico's poor were unable to protect their children from its unexpected demise. |
| JEL: | I25 J22 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33527 |
| By: | Peter R. Berkowitz; Michael Storper; Max Herbertson |
| Abstract: | The European place-based policy framework was established in the European Treaties and has a current budget of $60-70 billion per year. This paper identifies key features and directions for its future development with respect to three place-based problems: traditionally lagging regions; contemporary distressed (or left-behind regions), including those facing the structural challenges of the energy transition; the challenge of spreading prosperity faced with the uneven geography of technological clusters and routine technology-based manufacturing. We analyze the place-based features of EU Cohesion Policy, its commonalities and differences with place-based policies in the US. We evaluate policies against a structural backdrop of long-term convergence in the two continents and the contemporary geography of spatial divergence, using both historical perspectives and recent policy evaluation evidence. Key differences are identified in policy programming, implementation, budgeting and time horizons. While there has been evidence of the reduction of disparities and regional reconversion as a result of place-based policies on both continents, there are also serious impediments to effective implementation in both. These limits have to do with how well policy is designed with respect to economic geography fundamentals as well as political economy and organizational problems in policy design, implementation and governance. The paper concludes by drawing some general lessons on the design of place based policies and examines some of the issues that are particularly relevant for Europe. |
| JEL: | H59 O18 O25 O31 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33513 |
| By: | Ni, Pengfei; Cao, Qingfeng; Xu, Haidong; Guo, Jing |
| Abstract: | The extraordinary urban development witnessed in China since the inception of economic reforms cannot be fully explained by insights or frameworks rooted in neoclassical economics. Building upon a review of pertinent literature, this paper introduces an innovative unified development economics framework, tailored to the context of China's urban ascension, and constructs the "3633" theoretical framework for China's unified urban development. Its underlying logic posits that institutional transformations during the reform era have fostered three agents - households, enterprises, and city governments - each with distinct demand- supply preferences, anticipated returns, and balance sheets, who harness six key elements (population, human capital, material capital, land, institutions, and technology) to drive their behavioral dynamic. These agents engage in three realms of activity - competition and collaboration, learning and innovation, production and consumption - leading to economic activities interweaving across sectors, space, and time. By adopting this framework, we systematically analyze the formation of economic agents during urban development since reform and opening-up, interaction mechanisms among economic agents for mutual needs, and the evolution of their capabilities, behaviors and assets underpinning urban development post-reform. Finally, through a spatiotemporal perspective, we present theoretical deductions in alignment with China's urban reality, encompassing rapid growth and transitions of individual cities, the shift from homogeneous competition to specialized cooperation among cities, and staged acceleration of urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Urban Development Theory, Unified Development Theory, Chinese Cities |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000150 |
| By: | Haonan LI; Yasuyuki TODO |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the direct effect of a country's participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on its exports to China, as well as its indirect effect on other countries' exports to China. Using an event study approach, staggered difference-in-differences methodology, and spatial econometric models, we find that participation in the BRI significantly increases member countries’ exports to China, partly because of improvements in infrastructure. We also find evidence showing that countries without strong pre-existing political ties with China are more likely to experience greater export gains after joining the BRI. Furthermore, employing the Spatial Durbin Model, we find that the BRI has a significantly negative indirect effect on exports of countries with a manufacturing share similar to those of BRI members. This result likely reflects heightened competitive pressures, as the BRI increases exports to China from members. However, when using a spatial weight matrix constructed based on geographic distance, we find no significant indirect effect, suggesting that the positive effect of the BRI does not spill over to geographic neighbor countries through infrastructure development. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25038 |
| By: | Ziqi Li; Zhan Peng |
| Abstract: | Moran Eigenvector Spatial Filtering (ESF) approaches have shown promise in accounting for spatial effects in statistical models. Can this extend to machine learning? This paper examines the effectiveness of using Moran Eigenvectors as additional spatial features in machine learning models. We generate synthetic datasets with known processes involving spatially varying and nonlinear effects across two different geometries. Moran Eigenvectors calculated from different spatial weights matrices, with and without a priori eigenvector selection, are tested. We assess the performance of popular machine learning models, including Random Forests, LightGBM, XGBoost, and TabNet, and benchmark their accuracies in terms of cross-validated R2 values against models that use only coordinates as features. We also extract coefficients and functions from the models using GeoShapley and compare them with the true processes. Results show that machine learning models using only location coordinates achieve better accuracies than eigenvector-based approaches across various experiments and datasets. Furthermore, we discuss that while these findings are relevant for spatial processes that exhibit positive spatial autocorrelation, they do not necessarily apply when modeling network autocorrelation and cases with negative spatial autocorrelation, where Moran Eigenvectors would still be useful. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.12450 |
| By: | Yusuke ADACHI; Hikaru OGAWA; Masafumi TSUBUKU |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the exit of regionally dominant establishments on the productivity of the remaining local firms. Using establishment-level data from the Japanese manufacturing sector, we estimate the net effect of these exits through a difference-in-differences analysis, focusing on the top 1% of establishments that exited between 1999 and 2010. Our findings indicate a significant negative effect on regional productivity: exits reduced the productivity of the remaining establishments by about 1% within five years post-exit and by 0.7-0.8% within ten years. However, most of these declines can be attributed to the decreased demand associated with exits. Controlling for the factor of change in demand associated with exits, the exits themselves have little impact on total factor productivity (TFP) in either the short or long term. These results suggest that the legacy of large establishments in improving local TFP largely persists even after their exit. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25039 |
| By: | Oto-Peralías, Daniel (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Cuberes, David; Lacuesta, Aitor; Moreno, Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between land ownership concentration and the likelihood of hosting large green energy facilities, specifically mega-photovoltaic (PV) plants, defined as those exceeding 50 hectares. Focusing on Spain, we find that municipalities with a higher proportion of agricultural land concentrated in large farms are significantly more likely to accommodate mega PV plants. This effect remains robust after accounting for key factors influencing PV deployment, including terrain ruggedness, solar potential, and proximity to transmission lines and urban centers. To further neutralize unobserved factors that jointly influence land concentration and PV plant location, we leverage cadastral (parcel) data to conduct an intra-municipal analysis at the 0.5×0.5 km grid-cell level. Our findings reveal that grid cells with larger cadastral parcels have a substantially higher probability of being part of a mega PV facility. A simple theoretical model explains this pattern by highlighting the coordination challenges faced by small landowners. Unlike large ones, fragmented landholders struggle to meet developers’ land requirements, which are necessary to cover fixed project costs. Consistent with this mechanism, we also show that areas with irrigated agriculture are less likely to host mega PV plants and exhibit more unequal distributions of plant locations by land size. Finally, we provide external validity by confirming a similar positive association between mega PV plants and land concentration across U.S. counties. These findings underscore the implications of land inequality for the spatial distribution of renewable energy projects, shedding light on the limited local benefits of such investments and the growing opposition from rural communities. |
| Date: | 2025–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hakt5_v2 |
| By: | Taylor Knipe; Josue Ortega |
| Abstract: | The Deferred Acceptance algorithm (DA) frequently produces Pareto inefficient allocations in school choice problems. While a number of efficient mechanisms that Pareto-dominate DA are available, a normative question remains unexplored: which students should benefit from efficiency enhancements? We address it by introducing the concept of \emph{maximally improvable students}, who benefit in every improvement over DA that includes as many students as possible in set-inclusion terms. We prove that common mechanisms such as Efficiency-Adjusted DA (EADA) and Top Trading Cycles applied to DA (DA+TTC) can fall significantly short of this benchmark. These mechanisms may only improve two maximally-improvable students when up to $n-1$ could benefit. Addressing this limitation, we develop the Maximum Improvement over DA mechanism (MIDA), which generates an efficient allocation that maximises the number of students improved over DA. We show that MIDA can generate fewer blocking pairs than EADA and DA+TTC, demonstrating that its distributional improvements need not come at the cost of high justified envy. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.12871 |
| By: | Carolina Castaldi; Milad Abbasiharofteh; Sergio Petralia |
| Abstract: | The sustainability transition is high on the European agenda, with an emerging understanding that focusing on green technologies is not enough to achieve disruptive sustainability. An overall green transformation of current systems of production and consumption also requires market formation processes whereby green markets become viable economic opportunities for regions to specialize in. In this study, we draw on insights from evolutionary economic geography and geography of transitions to understand how regions develop green market specializations. To do so, we investigate two key sets of factors. First, we consider the evolutionary capability development process whereby new specializations emerge from existing related regional capabilities, in a path-dependent way. Second, we account for green public procurement initiatives to capture path-creation efforts in the form of deliberate regional policy directed towards green market formation. Our empirical analysis focuses on European regions in the period 2000-2020. We employ original trademark-based metrics to capture regional specializations in green markets and combine them with patent data to construct relatedness linkages between technologies and markets. Our results reveal that only a few regions have been able to develop specializations in green markets. We find that both prior capabilities in related technological domains and markets are positively associated with the emergence of these regional specializations. In addition, we also find that green public procurement is positively associated with the emergence of regional green market specializations. Our findings bear relevance for policy and research alike. |
| Keywords: | sustainability; regions; green markets; relatedness; public procurement; trademarks; patents |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2512 |
| By: | Clément Nedoncelle (Université Paris Saclay, INRAE, AgroParis Tech, Paris-Saclay Applied Economics); Léa Marchal (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Amandine Aubry (Université de Normandie - CREM, UNICAEN); Jérôme Héricourt (Université Paris-Saclay - Université d'Evry & CEPS-EPEE, and CEPII) |
| Abstract: | The impact of immigration on native workers’ wages has been a long-standing debate in labour economics. This meta-analysis synthesises findings from 88 studies published between 1985 and 2023, providing a comprehensive assessment of reduced-form estimates of the wage effect of immigration. Our results align with the existing literature, showing that the average wage effect is centred around zero, with substantial heterogeneity across studies. We highlight the critical role of contexts and methodological choices in shaping wage estimates. In particular, we find that shift-share instrumental variables correct for an upward bias of the OLS. Our findings emphasise the need for replication studies and greater transparency in methodological choices |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Labour Market; Meta-Analysis; Wage |
| JEL: | C80 J61 J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25010 |
| By: | Martin Nybom; Jan Stuhler |
| Abstract: | Using complete-count register data spanning three generations, we compare inter- and multigenerational transmission processes across municipalities in Sweden. We first document spatial patterns in intergenerational (parent-child) mobility, and study whether those patterns are robust to the choice of mobility statistic and the quality of the underlying microdata. We then ask whether there exists similar geographic variation in multigenerational mobility. Interpreting those patterns through the lens of a latent factor model, we identify which features of the transmission process vary across places. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.10721 |
| By: | Gabriele di Filippo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between captive financial institutions (CFIs, sector S127) and external lenders. The paper focuses on CFIs in Luxembourg that are owned by (resident and non-resident) investment funds specialising in private equity or real estate. Within the holding and acquisition structure set up by the fund sponsors, CFIs are mainly linked to other CFIs resulting in intragroup financial linkages in the form of equity holdings and intragroup loans. This is consistent with the relative importance of holding and intragroup lending companies among Luxembourg CFIs. However, certain types of CFIs have links with external lenders. This is particularly the case for conduits, entities with predominantly non-financial assets, mixed structures and extra-group loan origination companies. At the aggregate level, this means that most CFIs have little exposure to external lenders. Only a small proportion of CFIs have a higher credit exposure. The exposure is mainly to banks whose loans issued to CFIs finance mainly real estate investments (particularly commercial real estate such as office buildings and logistics facilities) located in Western Europe (mainly Germany and the United Kingdom). German banks are the main providers of loans for real estate investments, while US banks are the leading finance providers for private equity investments. The latter are broadly diversified across economic activities, with most targets located in Western Europe. |
| Keywords: | Captive financial institutions and money lenders, Sector S127, investment funds, private equity, real estate, banks, financial linkages |
| JEL: | C80 C81 F23 F30 G23 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp197 |
| By: | Jacob Greenspon; Gordon H. Hanson |
| Abstract: | How does improving access to the supply of energy affect regional specialization in manufacturing? We evaluate the long-run employment impacts of pipelines constructed by the U.S. government during World War II to transport oil and gas from the oil fields of the Southwest to wartime industrial producers in the Northeast. The pipelines were built rapidly to connect end points along a direct path that minimized use of scarce construction materials. Postwar they were converted to supply en route customers, giving counties close to the pipelines access to a cheap and plentiful source of energy. Between 1940 and 1950, counties with better access to pipeline gas had larger increases in their share of employment in energy-intensive industries. These impacts persisted to the mid-1980s for all energy-intensive industries and to the late 1990s for the subset of industries intensive in the direct use of electricity, despite the disruptive effects of the 1970s energy crisis. Our findings are relevant for understanding energy-related path dependence in local economic development patterns and how government intervention in energy markets affects industry location in the short and long run. |
| JEL: | F15 J23 N7 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33721 |
| By: | Sager, Lutz; Singer, Gregor |
| Abstract: | We assess the U.S. Clean Air Act standards for fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅). Using high resolution data, we find that the 2005 regulation reduced PM₂.₅ levels by 0.4μg/m³ over five years, with larger effects in more polluted areas. Standard difference-in-differences overstates these effects by a factor of three because time trends differ by baseline pollution, a bias we overcome with three alternative approaches. We show that the regulation contributed to narrowing Urban-Rural and Black-White PM₂.₅ exposure disparities, but less than difference-in-differences suggest. Pollution damages capitalized into house prices, on the other hand, appear larger than previously thought when leveraging regulatory variation. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121984 |
| By: | Laszlo Goerke (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University); Cinzia Rienzo (Brighton University and GLO School of Business and Law) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for 1994-2023, we show that the union wage mark-up for immigrants averages about 0.1 log points, 0.04 log-points less than that for natives. Therefore, unionization is less beneficial for immigrants than natives in the United States. The difference is most pronounced for males and low-skilled blue-collar workers. It cannot be observed for white-collar workers, individuals born in Mexico, and second-generation immigrants. An IVapproach indicates that the wage effects can be interpreted causally. Our results suggest that differences in the union wage mark-up may be due to disparities in bargaining power or result from discriminatory trade union objectives. Our findings point to the importance of labor market institutions in shaping the economic assimilation of immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Immigrants, Union objectives, Union wage mark-up, United States |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J61 J51 J70 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:202501 |
| By: | Pardy, Martina |
| Abstract: | his article examines the extent to which the presence of multinational enterprises (MNEs) influences the concentration of innovation among patenting firms within US states from 1976 to 2010. Merging patent and regional socioeconomic data, this study explores the effects within 50 US states over more than three decades using Ordinary-Least-Square and Instrumental Variable estimations. It shows that MNEs significantly contribute to the concentration of patenting activity, an effect predominantly driven by domestic-owned MNEs. The impact differs across space: states with a higher share of MNEs experience a sharper increase in patenting concentration. Crucially, it is the non-MNE firms that feel the squeeze the most, with those in the middle of the patenting hierarchy producing fewer patents when domestic MNEs ramp up their activity. This suggests that economic globalisation, while enhancing innovation opportunities for some, reinforces competitive pressures and barriers for others. These findings offer a new perspective on the forces shaping regional innovation dynamics, highlighting the role of MNEs in both amplifying innovation gains and exacerbating disparities in knowledge production. |
| Keywords: | globalisation; multinational enterprises; innovation; concentration; regional development |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127983 |
| By: | Jacob T. Bradt; Joseph E. Aldy |
| Abstract: | Flood protection infrastructure investments, such as Army Corps of Engineers levees, can enhance resilience to flood risks amplified by climate change. We estimate levees’ benefits by exploiting repeat residential property transactions. In areas protected by levees, home values increase 3-4 percent. Levees impose adverse spillover flood risks that reduce home values in nearby areas by 1-5 percent. Capitalized benefits in protected areas are progressive, but adverse spillover impacts are regressive. Capitalized benefits at levee construction do not vary by race, but racial sorting occurs post-construction. The local political economy of levee construction can explain the distribution of winners and losers. |
| JEL: | H22 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33633 |
| By: | Steven J. Davis; Meijun Qian; Wen Zeng |
| Abstract: | We build a granular GIS database that covers China’s national highways, modern motorways, traditional railways, high-speed railways, and waterways at an annual frequency from 1993 to 2020. Overall network length more than tripled after 1993, with half the increase accounted for by modern motorways and high-speed railways. Mean distance from zip-code centroids in China to nearest motorway access point fell from 302 km in 1993 to 15 km in 2020. Average within-county connectivity to the transport network rose sharply. We also show that discrepancies between distance to nearest motorway access point and straight-line distance to motorway routes are often large, and they correlate with calendar time, terrain features, and economic development. This finding raises concerns about the use of straight-line distance when estimating the causal effects of transport improvements. Our GIS database is freely available on an open-access basis, creating an empirical laboratory for new research in multiple directions. |
| JEL: | L92 N75 O18 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33515 |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | This article examines the role of Swedish higher education institutions (HEIs) in economic development, focusing on the impact of their research capacities on local economic activity. Globally, HEIs are increasingly prioritising research, frequently at the expense of education and local economic engagement, as a means to climb the university ranking ladder. Sweden has been no exception. Our findings indicate that research intensity at Swedish HEIs does not correlate with higher local income. Rather, the opposite is the case: more emphasis on top-end research seems to undermine local income. We explore human capital and innovation as possible mechanisms for the limited local economic influence of Swedish HEIs. The results reveal that HEIs do not significantly improve local human capital. Moreover, despite Swedish HEIs holding intellectual property rights to foster innovation, the actual economic translation of this knowledge faces considerable hurdles, including a misalignment with industry needs and limited local business collaboration. |
| Keywords: | higher education institutions; Sweden; research capacity; innovation; human capital |
| JEL: | I23 I20 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–03–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127188 |
| By: | Naruki Notsu (Osaka School of International Public Policy, The University of Osaka); Haruaki Hirota (Faculty of Economics, Musashi University); Nobuo Akai (Osaka School of International Public Policy, The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of enhancing the tax enforcement of administration on the tax gap, focusing on inter-municipal cooperation (IMC). IMC refers to collaborative tax collection efforts among multiple municipalities and promotes the aggregation of tax collection resources and expertise, improving tax enforcement. Using the time variation in IMC creation across municipalities, we show that IMC substantially improves the tax gap measurement by reinforcing tax enforcement in local governments. Our findings suggest that enhanced administrative capability in tax enforcement can be an effective tool against noncompliance in ways other than facilitating voluntary compliance. |
| Keywords: | Inter-municipal cooperation, Tax enforcement, Tax compliance |
| JEL: | H71 H77 H83 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:24e004rev. |
| By: | Peter Doe |
| Abstract: | In school choice, policymakers consolidate a district's objectives for a school into a priority ordering over students. They then face a trade-off between respecting these priorities and assigning students to more-preferred schools. However, because priorities are the amalgamation of multiple policy goals, some may be more flexible than others. This paper introduces a model that distinguishes between two types of priority: a between-group priority that ranks groups of students and must be respected, and a within-group priority for efficiently allocating seats within each group. The solution I introduce, the unified core, integrates both types. I provide a two-stage algorithm, the DA-TTC, that implements the unified core and generalizes both the Deferred Acceptance and Top Trading Cycles algorithms. This approach provides a method for improving efficiency in school choice while honoring policymakers' objectives. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.09357 |
| By: | Mfundo Mlilo; Godfrey Mahofa |
| Abstract: | This paper explores structural transformation in Harare, a city characterized by vertically divided authority. Harare's unique governance structure can offer invaluable insights into the role of political determinants in structural change in African cities. We aim to demonstrate how political dynamics have aided or undermined efforts to enhance long-term growth and structural change in the city's economy. We examine the spatial distribution of economic activity to account for structural transformation patterns and identify the drivers and constraints affecting this process. |
| Keywords: | Structural transformation, Urbanization, Political economy, Zimbabwe |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-27 |
| By: | Witteveen, Dirk; Hossain, Mobarak |
| Abstract: | This article examines the association between modernization and career growth of American men and European immigrants, focusing on heterogeneity along ancestry, ethnicity, and early-career class position. Analyses rely on datasets built with individual-level linked historical Censuses (1901–1940), which longitudinally map socio-economic indices of full occupational careers of late-nineteenth-century population birth cohorts (1884–1891). Modernization is measured by time-variant and metropolitan area-specific indicators of key industries, employment chances, domestic migration, and urbanicity. Contradicting modernization theory and the logic of industrialism, results demonstrate that macroeconomic opportunity structures do not explain differences in career growth curves of first- and second-generation immigrants in comparison to White men with US-born parents. Instead, we argue that structural ethnic cleavages, in combination with early-career class allocation, account for most of the observed immigrant variation in intragenerational mobility. We also find that the career growth curves of second-generation immigrants from Ireland, the Nordic countries, and Russia, in particular, far exceed those of multi-generational American men, but only if they started their careers in the working-class rather than the agricultural sector. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127628 |
| By: | Federico Riccio; Jacopo Staccioli; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | Does labour-saving technological change pose a threat to European employment, and if so, to what extent? This study investigates the degree of employment exposure to labour-saving technological change across NUTS-2 regions in Europe. We construct a cross-walked metric between the SOC and ISCO classification systems to adapt the direct measure of occupational exposure developed by Montobbio et al. (2024) for the US economy and apply it to the European context. This methodology enables us to generate detailed insights into the exposure of European occupations by leveraging the similarity rankings between technological classifications in the USPTO (CPCs) and task descriptions. To evaluate the transmission from occupational exposure to employment outcomes, we utilise data from the European Structure of Earnings Survey (EU-SES), thereby constructing exposure indices at both sectoral and regional levels. Finally, we examine the industrial and geographical diffusion of labour-saving technological change in recent years and provide robust econometric evidence indicating that low-wage regions, as well as deindustrialising areas heavily integrated into global value chains, are disproportionately vulnerable to the threat of substitution. |
| Keywords: | regional disparities, manufacturing downgrading, automation, global value chains |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2025/19 |
| By: | Reid B. Taylor; Erich Muehlegger |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of competition on incumbent firm pricing by using high frequency price data and the precise geographic location for all gas stations in California. Using an event study design, we find that the entry of a new station is associated with a 2.5 cent decrease in prices at incumbent stores, which equates to a 7% reduction in estimated retail markups. The effects are immediate, persistent, and show no sign of deterrence or limit pricing behavior. In contrast, nearby exit results in precisely estimated null effects on prices with no evidence of predatory pricing in the lead up to the station departure. The results are consistent across all fuel blends and dissipate with station distance. Finally, we explore the asymmetric effects, showing that the difference cannot be attributed to difference in branding, proximity to highway, or data quality idiosyncrasies, although we find suggestive evidence that exit tends to happen in more competitive markets and amongst less heavily trafficked stations. |
| JEL: | L1 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33569 |
| By: | Yasukazu Ichino (Economics Department, Ritsumeikan University); Toru Kawai (Sport and Health Science Department, Ritsumeikan University); Mifuyu Kira (Osaka School of International Public Policy, The University of Osaka); Mai Seki (Faculty of International Social Sciences, Gakushuin University) |
| Abstract: | While peer effects in higher education, particularly through random roommate assignments, have been extensively studied, research on in-class peer effects, especially in group work settings, remains limited. Simultaneously, flipped classrooms are gaining increasing attention in higher education as a popular form of active learning, where students watch lecture videos before class and engage in group discussions or assignments during class. This study aims to estimate the heterogeneous impact of flipped classrooms on college students' learning outcomes by examining how these effects vary according to the characteristics of group members (i.e., math and English placement test scores, learning motivation, and attitude toward group learning). This study uses random assignment of first-year college students to sections of an introductory economics course and random assignment of group members within the flipped classroom (totaling n=3749), to examine the impact of the flipped classroom teaching method. The study finds that the presence of highly motivated group members significantly improves students' learning outcomes. The results provide suggestive evidence that peer characteristics could positively influence learning outcomes in in-class activities within flipped classrooms. |
| Keywords: | flipped classroom; randomized experiment; group effects |
| JEL: | A22 I23 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:25e001 |
| By: | Tiago Cavalcanti; Pedro Molina Ogeda; Emanuel Ornelas |
| Abstract: | We examine the indirect effects of the US-China trade war on Brazil’s labor market. Using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets, we construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict. Following higher exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US exports experienced a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills. In contrast, American tariffs on Chinese exports had no significant impact on Brazilian labor markets. These results contribute to a better understanding of the intricate worldwide implications of bilateral trade wars. |
| Keywords: | trade war, trade diversion, local labor markets, Brazil. |
| JEL: | D31 F14 F16 F66 J23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11839 |
| By: | Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Christine Farquharson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rita Ginja (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Maud Pecher (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/20 |
| By: | Daniel Nauck (Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Science, Faculty of Economics); Martin Nowak (HAWK University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Hildesheim/Holzminden/Göttingen, Faculty of Management, Social Work, Construction); Michael Herzog (Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Scholars and policymakers have discussed the emphasis on entrepreneurial growth, especially the importance of cooperation with local and regional stakeholders (e.g. local politics, social or innovation networks, or collaboration with regional universities) to gain inner-city economics resilience and to attract owner-managed retail (OMR) and support entrepreneurial SMEs. We aim to contribute to the discussion by adding an entrepreneurial learning perspective, using insights from an exploratory case study research project, which examined efforts made by entrepreneurial retailers in terms of digitalization during the COVID-19 pandemic through the support of their social network. In doing so, we are introducing and discussing the use of visual data collection within an ego-centered qualitative network analysis (ENA) framework, introducing the method in an entrepreneurship and business management research context. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Digital business, Retail, Ego-centred network analysis |
| JEL: | I25 L81 O00 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:220-228 |
| By: | Johan Fourie (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Helena Liebenberg (Tracing History Trust); Jonathan Schoots (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University and Department of Economic History, Lund University); Paul van der Linde (LEAP, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University and Department of Department of History, Radboud University, Nijmegen) |
| Abstract: | By the early nineteenth century, the Cape had evolved from a small VOC outpost into a sprawling colony of over 100, 000 square miles, integrated into global trade and migration networks. Its population included colonial officials, European settlers, enslaved people and indigenous groups, but everyday life in this society remains underexplored in the economic history literature. This article draws on a newly digitised source, the auction records (vendurolle) of the Cape Orphan Chamber from 1701 to 1825, to analyse patterns of kinship and material culture. As records of estate sales, these data reveal who bought what, and at what price, offering rare insight into household possessions and social networks. The article shows how these auctions can deepen our understanding of the economic and social fabric of life at the Cape. |
| Keywords: | Auctions, Cape Colony, transcription, material culture, family networks |
| JEL: | N37 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers387 |
| By: | Benetton, Matteo; Gavazza, Alessandro; Surico, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how central bank policies influence mortgage pricing in the United Kingdom. It shows that lenders price discriminate by offering two-part tariffs of interest rates and origination fees, and during unconventional monetary policies like the Funding for Lending Scheme, lenders reduced interest rates while increasing fees. Using a model of mortgage demand and lender competition, we find that central bank policies increased mortgage lending. Additionally, banning origination fees would reduce lending, as fees help lenders capture surplus while allowing them to price discriminate across borrowers with different sensitivities to rates and fees. |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 G21 G28 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126188 |
| By: | Fenton, Annabel; Fitchett, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | While Apartheid legislatively ended in 1994, the legacy of structural discrimination still defines urban realities in South African cities. The historically white ‘old money’ Northern suburbs of Johannesburg remain an enclave of privilege where race, class and gender define the social production of space. Atop the roofs of apartment buildings in the suburbs of Killarney, Illovo and Rosebank lie ‘locations in the sky’: staff accommodation designed during Apartheid for live-in domestic workers. These structures illuminate how Apartheid spatial planning continues to shape the city and its power relations: the colonial legacy of domestic work in South Africa. Using a Lefebvrian lens, this study investigates experiences of ‘locations in the sky’, and how discrimination is enforced and experienced. Through 38 semi-structured interviews and a doctrinal legal analysis of 13 body corporate rules, various forms of discrimination are revealed. Domestic workers and residents of staff accommodation encounter physical and structural discrimination in terms of sub-par living conditions, as well as discriminatory rules. This discrimination is enforced through social power. Finally, an analysis of discrimination scenarios illustrates that discrimination is both written and enforced to varying degrees based on the unique context of each building. The findings contribute a spatial analysis of domestic work in the under-researched space of staff accommodation in apartment buildings. Documenting this discrimination provides a basis upon which to identify injustices, reevaluate rules and address discrimination, which should be of concern to apartment residents, bodies corporate, civil society organisations and urban planners as well as legislators. |
| Keywords: | Apartheid; discrimination; domestic work; spatial justice |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127959 |
| By: | Carlsson, Magnus (Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University); Eriksson, Stefan (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Rooth, Dan-Olof (Swedish Institute for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | Labor markets in advanced economies have undergone substantial change due to globalization, technological improvements, and organizational changes, making language proficiency increasingly important even in less skilled jobs. Has this development led employers to shy away from hiring immigrants with limited host-country language skills? We shed light on this question by conducting a large-scale field experiment, where we introduce common second-language features in immigrants’ resumes. We also conduct employer surveys to interpret our experimental results. Our main finding is that language proficiency has a strong positive effect on being invited to a job interview, even in typical immigrant entry jobs. |
| Keywords: | language proficiency; immigrant hiring; field experiment |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofile:2025_007 |
| By: | Anton Yang; Jianwei Ai; Costas Arkolakis |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new methodology to detect and measure economic activity using geospatial data and apply it to steel production, a major industrial pollution source worldwide. Combining plant output data with geospatial data, such as ambient air pollutants, nighttime lights, and temperature, we train machine learning models to predict plant locations and output. We identify about 40% (70%) of plants missing from the training sample within a 1 km (5 km) radius and achieve R² above 0.8 for output prediction at a 1 km grid and at the plant level, as well as for both regional and time series validations. Our approach can be adapted to other industries and regions, and used by policymakers and researchers to track and measure industrial activity in near real time. |
| JEL: | Q50 Q53 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33619 |
| By: | Shuoge Qian; Hong Ru; Wei Xiong |
| Abstract: | Amid rising global interest in state interventions, this paper examines how China’s infrastructure investments—a key macroeconomic policy tool—affect firm productivity. We focus on a policy that encourages regional governments to improve market conditions for private enterprises. Our analysis shows that a better market environment amplifies infrastructure investment spillovers. However, the overall impact remains neutral or negative despite greater gains in industries with improved market access. These findings highlight the complex interplay between state intervention and market forces, raising concerns about the effectiveness of infrastructure investments in sustaining growth, especially in regions with weak market institutions. |
| JEL: | H54 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33725 |
| By: | Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé; Martín Uribe |
| Abstract: | This paper embeds a circular Hotelling model of spatial competition into a new-Keynesian model with staggered price setting. The resulting framework provides microfoundations for a cost-push shock, taking the form of random variations in transportation costs. An increase in transportation costs raises price markups and is contractionary and inflationary. Spatial frictions also have consequences for the propagation of aggregate demand disturbances (including monetary shocks), as they dampen their output effects and amplify their inflationary effects. Empirically, the paper shows that the cost of time spent shopping represents a significant fraction of consumption expenditure, suggesting that spatial frictions broadly defined are a nonnegligible feature of aggregate demand. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 L13 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33628 |
| By: | Angela Zorro Medina; David Hackett; Devin Green; Robert Vargas |
| Abstract: | This study provides the first empirical evidence that private donations to police departments can influence officer behavior. Drawing on the psychology of reciprocity bias, we theorize that public donations create social debts that shape discretionary enforcement. Using quasi-experimental data from Chicago, we find that after 7-Eleven sponsored a police foundation gala, investigatory stops, particularly of Black pedestrians, increased around its stores. These findings reveal a racialized pattern of donor bias in policing and call into question the consequences of private donations to public law enforcement. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.15140 |
| By: | Andrea Stella |
| Abstract: | Using data on U.S. manufacturing plants, I estimate a production function model that includes agglomeration intensity as a component of total factor productivity and allows agglomeration benefits to vary across establishments, which can lead to sorting. I find that agglomeration benefits decline with unobserved establishment-level raw productivity. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; Sorting; Census of Manufactures |
| JEL: | D22 D24 E24 L11 R11 R32 |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-31 |
| By: | Mitsuyo ANDO; Kazunobu HAYAKAWA; Shujiro URATA; Kenta YAMANOUCHI |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates how the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, as measured by mobility restriction measures, affected the quarterly performance of Japanese overseas affiliates, mainly from the perspective of sales, spanning from 2020 to 2022. In particular, we highlight the role of intra-firm networks, specifically the presence of nearby affiliates within the same parent company, in mitigating the adverse effects of COVID-19. Our major findings can be summarized as follows. First, the negative impact of local mobility-restricting measures was much larger for total sales and investment than for employment, especially during the initial phase of the pandemic. Although the negative effect was significantly larger for total sales, it took a longer time for investment to recover. Second, on average, affiliates with sibling affiliates in the same region did not necessarily play a role in mitigating the adverse effects and experienced a greater negative effect from local restriction measures in some cases. Third, such a negative effect was much smaller or disappeared for affiliates with sibling affiliates that are located in nearby countries experiencing less restrictive measures, particularly in the initial period of the shock. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25040 |
| By: | MARTINA PARDY; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how trade influences intra-regional income inequality across Europe’s NUTS-2 regions. Drawing on newly compiled datasets capturing both inter-regional trade and local-level inequality for all EU member states plus the UK, we employ an econometric framework —complete with Instrumental Variable estimations and robust sensitivity analyses— to gauge the impact of trade on regional interpersonal inequality. In addition to examining aggregate trade, we distinguish between various trade channels, including exchanges within the EU versus those with the rest of the world, links to neighbouring regions versus non-neighbours, and domestic versus international flows. Our findings reveal that higher levels of trade are positively associated with changes in regional income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient. Crucially, this link depends on trading partners: trade within a single country, within the EU, and with non-neighbouring regions correlates with rising inequality, whereas international trade, trade with non-EU partners, or trade with neighbouring regions shows no statistically significant effect. These conclusions withstand a battery of robustness checks, including new control variables and a population-weighted approach, further underscoring the role that particular types of trade play in shaping regional income disparities. |
| Keywords: | Trade, interpersonal inequality, regions, Europe |
| JEL: | D63 F14 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2511 |
| By: | Peng, Xue |
| Abstract: | An increase in people leaving metropolitan areas (MAs) has been observed in various countries in the first years of COVID-19, and MAs will still be most affected in potential future health crises. Therefore, it is paramount to understand the mechanism of migration leaving the MAs (LMA migration) since it provides insight into how people adjust to health crises. This empirical study aims to investigate the impact of health risks and teleworking on residents' LMA migration behaviors. It uses microdata from the third to sixth rounds of the Survey on Changes in Attitudes and Behaviors in Daily Life under the Influence of Novel Coronavirus Infection conducted by the Japanese government, and employs fixed effects logit models for estimation. The results demonstrate that metropolitan residents are initially attracted to local areas with lower COVID-19 infection rates. However, this impact reverses several months after the lift of the last public health emergency, and metropolitan residents move to local areas with higher COVID-19 infection rates, where they will potentially have better prosperity and more dynamic interactions. Unemployed individuals are more likely to engage in LMA migration and the employees are less likely to do so, indicating that the entrapment phenomenon is not evident in Japan. Teleworking is found to significantly facilitate LMA migration in the later stages of the health crisis, although it does not have a significant effect over the long term. Moderating effects are detected for teleworking in the sense that it enhances the trade-off between employment opportunities and health risks. |
| Keywords: | migration behaviors, leaving metropolitan areas (LMA), health risks, teleworking, COVID-19, Japan |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000102 |
| By: | Peng, Xue |
| Abstract: | An increase in the number of people leaving metropolitan areas (MAs) was observed in various countries in the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic. While considerable attention has been paid to the impacts of health risks and teleworking, two prominent topics related to health-crisis-led migration, empirical evidence remains inadequate. This study aims to empirically investigate the impacts and temporal changes of these two factors on migration leaving MAs (LMA migration). It utilizes survey data from the Japanese government and employs fixed effects logit models.(1) By using infection rates in a more accurate measurement than previous studies, this study confirms the health-risk-aversion motives in LMA migration. (2) Teleworking's influence on LMA migration is found to be insignificant over the long term. Nevertheless, it increases the likelihood of formal employees staying in MAs and strengthens the tendency of the self-employed to leave for local areas. (3) Temporally, the significant impact of lower COVID-19 infection rates attracting metropolitan residents persisted beyond the pandemic stringency and continued for several months afterward, though it eventually reversed. Teleworking shows a positive influence on LMA migration only in the later stage of COVID-19. These findings suggest a tendency of 'deferred decisions' in LMA migration due to people's unfamiliarity with an unprecedented health crisis. However, the negative impact of infection risks emerges sooner than the significant effect of teleworking, indicating that safety is a pressing priority for LMA migration in the early stages of a major health crisis. (4) Self-employed individuals, homeworkers, and the unemployed are more likely to engage in LMA migration, while employees (whether formal or informal) are less likely, highlighting the role of opportunity costs. Policy implications suggest that local governments should focus on attracting the self-employed from MAs during health crises and on enhancing the teleworking environment for the long term. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000148 |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Rajeev K. Goel; James W. Saunoris; Mohammad Reza Farzanegan |
| Abstract: | The geographic spread of nations would pose logistics challenges in production, distribution and servicing, impacting costs, with implications for entrepreneurship. Using panel data from 62 countries spanning the years 2006 to 2021, we find that of the different oceanic geographic dimensions considered, the number of islands undermines entrepreneurship. Thus, the geographic scatter of a nation, in terms of the number of islands, does not foster entrepreneurship. The length of the coastline or being an island itself seem to not matter significantly in this regard. This main finding holds across different modeling variations. As expected, better institutional quality encourages entrepreneurship. The mediation analysis, to dissect the direct and indirect effects (through institutions) of geography reveals that the impact of the number of islands can work through institutional quality (as well as directly) to undermine entrepreneurship. Besides the considering of the number of islands, the spillovers of oceanic geography through institutions on entrepreneurship form the novel contributions of this work. However, the mediation analysis highlights a critical insight: geographic fragmentation, particularly in countries with numerous islands, weakens the positive impact of institutions. This is likely due to institutional fragmentation failing to align with geographic fragmentation. Some implications for policy are discussed. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, geography, institutions, islands, coastline, latitude, economic freedom, mediation analysis. |
| JEL: | L26 P48 O17 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11831 |