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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Popov, Alexander; Pestova, Anna |
| Abstract: | College enrolment typically rises during recessions. This paper demonstrates that housing wealth destruction dampened this countercyclical effect in areas most affected by the U.S. housing bust of 2008-2011. By combining household data with a mortgage credit register and housing price data, we reveal that negative shocks to housing wealth significantly reduced college enrolment among homeowners relative to renters during this period. Up to 2% of the local college-age population did not pursue college enrolment at the height of the bust due to housing wealth destruction. The negative impact of homeownership on college education persists for a decade, contributing to persistently lower incomes among homeowners in the most affected areas. JEL Classification: I24, E32, J24 |
| Keywords: | college enrolment, homeownership, housing boom-bust episodes, housing wealth |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253083 |
| By: | Szulim, Szymon |
| Abstract: | While smart city research predominantly focuses on large urban areas, this paper investigates smaller, purpose-built environments, proposing an operational definition for the "Micro Smart City" concept. It specifically analyzes "Sport-Oriented Micro Smart Cities", arguing that large-scale, technologically advanced sports complexes (elite training centers, academies, stadiums) are evolving into such entities. This transformation is driven by the integration of smart technologies and the adoption of selected urban functions (like housing, services, and operational self-sufficiency), allowing these facilities to emulate urban characteristics despite lacking municipal governance. Case studies of modern sports infrastructure illustrate this evolution. The paper contributes to understanding smart city scalability and the diverse manifestations of smart urbanism in specialized, micro-scale contexts. |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8nxaq_v1 |
| By: | Abigail Francis; Joshua Goodman; Joshua S. Goodman |
| Abstract: | The pandemic induced a substantial enrollment shift away from public schools in fall 2020 and a partial return of students in fall 2021, leaving longer-term impacts unclear. We use Massachusetts state- and district-level data to explore enrollment patterns five years after the pandemic's onset. Relative to pre-pandemic trends, fall 2024 enrollment is down 2% in local public schools, up 14% in private schools, and up 45% in home schools. The highest income 20% of districts have lost more public school students than the other 80% combined, with these lower income districts having largely recovered. White and Asian public school enrollments have stabilized at levels 3% and 8% below pre-pandemic trends, while Black and Hispanic enrollments have more than fully recovered. Public school losses are almost entirely concentrated in middle grades (5-8), where enrollment is down 8%, suggesting families place particular weight on those ages when making post-pandemic schooling choices. Five years in, the pandemic has had sustained effects on the size and demographic composition of public schools. Many of the changes observed in Massachusetts appear in national data, suggesting these patterns are widespread. |
| Keywords: | pandemic, public school, private school, home school |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12004 |
| By: | Karsten Mau; Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu; Yawen Zheng |
| Abstract: | We evaluate how access to international transport infrastructure promotes trade and economic development. Exploiting the gradual unfolding of transcontinental rail freight connections between China and Europe, our empirical findings indicate increasing exports from connected cities, with positive spillovers to neighboring cities and other indicators economic activity. Not all products and cities are equally responsive to new rail export opportunities. We set up a multi-sector heterogeneous firms model with a rich specification of trade costs, in which firms optimize trade costs by choosing alternative transportation modes and routes. Leveraging a unique data set on trade flows between Chinese cities, we calibrate our model to discuss local welfare effects, relying on sufficient statistics that quantify changes in city-level trade costs. We also highlight significant spatial distributional effects of trade infrastructure development. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure, trade, regional development, China |
| JEL: | F14 F15 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12027 |
| By: | Eric A. Hanushek; Le Kang; Xueying Li; Lei Zhang |
| Abstract: | The changing pattern of quality in China’s rural schools across time and province is extracted from the differential labor market earnings of rural migrant workers. Variations in rates of return to years of schooling across migrant workers working in the same urban labor market but having different sites of basic education provide for direct estimation of provincial school quality. Corroborating this approach, these school quality estimates prove to be highly correlated with provincial cognitive skill test scores for the same demographic group. Returns to quality increase with economic development level of destination cities. Importantly, quality appears higher and provincial variation appears lower for younger cohorts, indicating at least partial effectiveness of more recent policies aimed at improving rural school quality across provinces. Surprisingly, however, provincial variations in quality are uncorrelated with teacher-student ratio or per student spending. |
| Keywords: | school quality, migration, China |
| JEL: | I25 J6 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12017 |
| By: | McLean, Andrew (Queen's University Belfast); McVicar, Duncan (Queen's University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents sibling fixed effects estimates of the relationship between school exclusion and subsequent academic achievement from population-wide administrative data on English secondary school students. It complements a growing base of quasi-experimental and individual fixed effects evidence on exclusion effects in predominantly US settings. We find that being excluded is negatively associated with subsequent achievement at school. We assess the extent to which this might reflect a negative causal impact of exclusion. |
| Keywords: | sibling fixed effects, educational achievement, school exclusion, administrative data |
| JEL: | I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18044 |
| By: | Dennis Egger; Benjamin Faber; Ming Li; Wei Lin |
| Abstract: | We combine a new collection of microdata from China with a natural policy experiment to investigate the extent to which reductions in rural-urban migration barriers affect flows of trade and investments between cities and the countryside. We find that increases in worker eligibility for urban residence registration (Hukou) across origin-destination pairs increase rural-urban exports, imports, capital inflows and outflows, both in terms of bilateral transaction values and the number of unique buyer-seller matches. To quantify the implications at the regional level, we interpret these estimates through the lens of a spatial equilibrium model in which migrants can reduce buyer-seller matching frictions. We find that a 10% increase in a rural county's migration market access on average leads to a 1.5% increase in the county's trade market access and a 2% increase in investment market access. In the context of China's recent Hukou reforms, we find that these knock-on effects on market integration were on average larger among the urban destinations compared to the rural origins, reinforcing incentives for rural-urban migration. |
| JEL: | F63 O12 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34098 |
| By: | Mahshid Gorjian |
| Abstract: | 1.1 Background Parks and the greening of schoolyards are examples of urban green spaces that have been praised for their environmental, social, and economic benefits in cities all over the world. More studies show that living near green spaces is good for property values. However, there is still disagreement about how strong and consistent these effects are in different cities (Browning et al., 2023; Grunewald et al., 2024; Teo et al., 2023). 1.2 Purpose This systematic review is the first to bring together a lot of geographical and statistical information that links greening schoolyards to higher property prices, as opposed to just green space in general. By focusing on schoolyard-specific interventions, we find complex spatial, economic, and social effects that are often missed in larger studies of green space. 1.3 Methods This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and did a systematic search and review of papers that were published in well-known journals for urban studies, the environment, and real estate. The criteria for inclusion stressed the use of hedonic pricing or spatial econometric models to look at the relationship between urban green space and home values in a quantitative way. Fifteen studies from North America, Europe, and Asia met the requirements for inclusion (Anthamatten et al., 2022; Wen et al., 2019; Li et al., 2019; Mansur & Yusuf, 2022). |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.19934 |
| By: | Clodomiro Ferreira (Banco de España); Julio Gálvez (Banco de España); Myroslav Pidkuyko (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | The housing bust in Spain was characterised by a significant and rapid drop in home ownership among the younger cohorts, a relatively homogeneous but significant decrease in consumption and significant movements in the rent-to-house price ratio. To uncover the causes of these movements, we solve and estimate an equilibrium life-cycle model with non-linear income, mortgage and housing and rental market dynamics, and simulate a series of counterfactual policy changes and macroeconomic conditions observed in Spain during the period. The lion’s share of the observed drop in home ownership and consumption and the housing market dynamics can be explained by the tightening of credit conditions and the major shift in income dynamics observed in Spain between the boom and bust phases. |
| Keywords: | life-cycle models, mortgage debt, housing |
| JEL: | E21 E44 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2424 |
| By: | Tahir Andrabi; Jishnu Das; Asim Ijaz Khwaja; Selcuk Ozyurt |
| Abstract: | Low-cost private schools have increased educational access in low-income countries, but frequent school closures lead to costly disruptions in children’s schooling. We provide experimental evidence from Pakistan that both school loans and educational products and services (EPS) are (a) commercially viable products and (b) substantially and similarly improve school survival rates. Moreover, loans decrease closure rates more for schools with larger initial enrollments and lower baseline test scores, while EPS show no such differential impact. These results demonstrate how financial and educational input constraints can significantly affect school survival while underscoring that the fungibility of entrepreneurial support matters. |
| JEL: | C93 I22 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34042 |
| By: | Serdar Ozkan |
| Abstract: | Differences in the structure of mortgages, specifically fixed rate versus variable rate, can explain the divergence in house price trends among developed countries, this analysis reveals. |
| Keywords: | mortgages; home prices; mortgage rates |
| Date: | 2025–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:101398 |
| By: | Pawel Janas |
| Abstract: | I examine the effects of public debt on municipal services and real outcomes during financial crises using a unique archival dataset of U.S. cities from 1924 to 1943. Unlike today’s countercyclical fiscal policies, the Great Depression provides a rare setting to observe fiscal shocks without substantial intergovernmental or Federal Reserve support. My findings show that financial market frictions – especially the need to refinance debt – led cities to sharply cut expenditures, particularly on capital projects and police services. As urban development halted during the Depression, cities with high pre-crisis debt levels faced significant austerity pressures, a decline in population growth, a rise in crime, and a departure of skilled public servants from municipal governments. |
| JEL: | G01 H7 N3 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34011 |
| By: | Delespesse, Elise; Martin-Shields, Charles |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Morocco has shifted from being primarily a country of transit and emigration to becoming a country of settlement. This evolution is largely driven by increased border restrictions and pushbacks, which have made migration routes to the EU less accessible. As a result, the city of Casablanca has become a hub of urban settlement instead of a transitional step in onward movement. Interviews conducted with non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and civil society organisations (CSOs) working with urban migrants and displaced people in Casablanca highlighted ways that development cooperation can have a positive impact on urban migration contexts. Indeed, the more hands-off approach of local authorities in Casablanca when dealing with migrant communities contrasts with the aggressive policing common in Rabat and border areas, creating space for the establishment of informal migrant organisations in host communities. These organisations have become interlocutors with official institutions, playing a critical role in re-establishing migrants' and host communities' trust in official institutions. With CSO and NGO support, communities themselves have also found ways to build inclusion and cooperation. Islamic values and Moroccan tradition of hospitality influence the provision of common goods at the household and neighbourhood level. Hosts and migrants also legally benefit from education and health services provided by governmental and non-governmental organisations; the challenge lies in ensuring that all parties are aware of the services available to them, in many cases regardless of their immigration status. Still, the contemporary discourse around migration and displacement in Morocco is infused with xenophobia, exclusion and racism, problems compounded by a media environment highly critical of migrants and displaced people. However, experts underlined the impact of repeated positive interactions between migrant and host communities in tempering hostile rhetoric. Key policy messages: • Health, education, and housing are universal needs for both host communities and migrants. Ensure that funded programmes are available to everyone who lives in the neighbourhood, host or migrant, and that these are common goods around which community identity can be built. • Communicating the history of migration in areas of arrival is critical. These histories can help international organisations contextualise their programming and make immigration and settlement part of a wider story that inclusive identity can be built around. • Build cooperation between city- and municipal-level organisations nationally. City-to-city cooperation can fill knowledge gaps about national migration policy and reduce duplication of efforts by CSOs and NGOs who work with migrants. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Displacement, Borders, Social Cohesion, Casablanca, Morocco |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:323250 |
| By: | Mykhailyshyna, Dariia; Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians on voting behavior in Poland. The two migration shocks, caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, allow us to compare the effects of conflict-induced labor migration and those of refugee inflows. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that greater exposure to labor migrants reduces support for conservative parties in the short run and subsequently shifts voter preferences toward pro-redistribution parties. We do not find similar effects for refugees, who, unlike temporary labor migrants, had access to social benefits. Exposure to both types of Ukrainian migration leads to a decrease in far-right voting. This effect emerges only after the salience of Ukrainian migrants increases due to the escalation of Russia's aggression and the rise of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the Polish far-right. The backlash from Polish voters against the far-right rhetoric is ten times stronger in areas exposed to refugees than to labor migrants. Our results are robust to the use of a number of instruments and several sensitivity checks. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Refugees, Political Economy, Voting, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D72 F22 J61 P16 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1649 |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Jonathan Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Debt balances continued to march upward in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Mortgage balances in particular saw an increase of $131 billion. Following a steep rise in home prices since 2019, several housing markets have seen dips in prices and concerns were sparked about the state of the mortgage market. Here, we disaggregate mortgage balances and delinquency rates by type and region to better understand the landscape of the current mortgage market, where any ongoing risks may lie, regionally and by product. |
| Keywords: | HDC; mortgage; FHA; consumer credit panel |
| JEL: | G5 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:101393 |
| By: | Donghoon Lee; Joseph Tracy |
| Abstract: | Following the COVID-19 health crisis, home prices and mortgage rates rose sharply. This created concerns that first-time homebuyers (FTBs) would be disadvantaged and would lose ground. Earlier this year, we documented that the share of purchase mortgages by FTBs, as well as their share of home purchases, have actually increased slightly over the past couple of years. It appears that FTBs are holding their own in this challenging housing market. This raises the question of whether the characteristics of FTBs have changed. In a 2019 post, we described the characteristics of these buyers over the period from 2000 to 2016. In this post, we provide an update through 2024. |
| Keywords: | first-time home buyers |
| JEL: | G5 R3 |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:101413 |
| By: | Austin Feng; Francesco Ruggieri |
| Abstract: | We propose a structural approach to extrapolate average partial effects away from the cutoff in regression discontinuity designs (RDDs). Our focus is on applications that exploit closely contested school district referenda to estimate the effects of changes in education spending on local economic outcomes. We embed these outcomes in a spatial equilibrium model of local jurisdictions in which fiscal policy is determined by majority rule voting. This integration provides a microfoundation for the running variable, the share of voters who approve a ballot initiative, and enables identification of structural parameters using RDD coefficients. We then leverage the model to simulate the effects of counterfactual referenda over a broad range of proposed spending changes. These scenarios imply realizations of the running variable away from the threshold, allowing extrapolation of RDD estimates to nonmarginal referenda. Applying the method to school expenditure ballot measures in Wisconsin, we document substantial heterogeneity in housing price capitalization across the approval margin. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.02658 |
| By: | Corrado Giulietti (University of Southampton); Brendon McConnell (City St George’s, University of London); Yves Zenou (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | How can crime be disrupted effectively without increasing resources? To answer this question, we develop a spatial network model of crime diffusion, using London as a case study. Moving beyond traditional hot spot policing, we identify key player neighborhoods—highly connected areas in the network. Counterfactual analysis shows that targeting top 10% of key players reduces crime by 10.7% (5.8 percentage points) more than targeting top 10% of hot spots, resulting in potential annual savings exceeding £130 million. Examining the underlying mechanisms, we find that while hot spots attract crime locally, key players facilitate its propagation across areas. |
| Keywords: | C23, D85, H50, K42 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2525 |
| By: | Eric Donald; Masao Fukui; Yuhei Miyauchi |
| Abstract: | How do regional productivity shocks or transportation infrastructure improvements affect aggregate welfare? In a general class of spatial equilibrium models, we provide a formula for aggregate welfare changes, decomposed into terms associated with (i) technology (Fogel 1964, Hulten 1978), (ii) spatial dispersion of marginal utility, (iii) fiscal externalities, (iv) technological externalities, and (v) redistribution. We further use this decomposition to derive a general formula for optimal spatial transfers and show that, whenever optimal transfers are in place, the technology term alone captures the aggregate welfare effects of technological shocks. We apply our framework to study welfare gains from improving the US highway network. We find that changes in the spatial dispersion of marginal utility are as important as technological externalities in accounting for the deviations from the Fogel-Hulten benchmark to assess welfare gains. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 R0 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34075 |
| By: | Wang, Peggy |
| Abstract: | Automated vehicles (AVs) are one of the most significant technological advances in transportation. The benefits of AV technologies could be maximized by increasing vehicle occupancy through pooling and ridesharing, integrating AV use with high-capacity transit systems (e.g., using AVs to complement existing transit), and promoting multimodality (e.g., connecting travelers to public transit). Additionally, shared automated vehicles (SAVs), in which ridesharing companies (similar as today’s Uber or Lyft) offer driverless on-demand mobility services to customers, could enhance transportation access for visually impaired travelers who face unique challenges navigating current transportation systems including public transit and rideshare services. To this point, we interviewed 15 visually impaired individuals to understand their current transportation experience (e.g., what challenges they face and how they cope with these challenges); how SAVs might address their transportation needs and challenges; potential issues and solutions for using SAVs; how their travel behavior may change due to SAVs; and how much they would pay for SAV rides. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9h2233g0 |
| By: | Pablo Quintana (UNCuyo); Marcos Herrera-Gómez (CIANECO/CONICET/Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto) |
| Abstract: | Identifying regions that are both spatially contiguous and internally homogeneous remains a core challenge in spatial analysis and regional economics, especially with the increasing complexity of modern datasets. These limitations are particularly problematic when working with socioeconomic data that evolve over time. This paper presents a novel methodology for spatio-temporal regionalization—Spatial Deep Embedded Clustering (SDEC)—which integrates deep learning with spatially constrained clustering to effectively process time series data. The approach uses autoencoders to capture hidden temporal patterns and reduce dimensionality before clustering, ensuring that both spatial contiguity and temporal coherence are maintained. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we show that SDEC significantly outperforms traditional methods in capturing complex temporal patterns while preserving spatial structure. Using empirical examples, we demonstrate that the proposed framework provides a robust, scalable, and data-driven tool for researchers and policymakers working in public health, urban planning, and regional economic analysis. |
| Keywords: | Spatial clustering, Spatial Data Science, Spatio-temporal Classification, Territorial analysis. |
| JEL: | C23 C45 C63 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:368 |
| By: | Tolga Benzer (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of access to state-run religious schools on girls’ outcomes in T\"urkiye. These schools, offering religious instruction and a conservative school environment, became accessible to girls following a 1976 court ruling. Exploiting variation in exposure to religious schools across district centers and cohorts, I find that access increased secondary school completion among girls—with more pronounced effects observed in conservative areas—while having negligible effects on boys. Treated women later had lower fertility and higher labor force participation. The findings show that removing cultural barriers to education can promote schooling and public life integration for culturally marginalized groups. |
| Keywords: | Culture, Religion, Education, Women's Empowerment, Islam |
| JEL: | I24 I25 J13 J16 J22 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp170 |
| By: | Di Cataldo, Marco; Renzullo, Elena |
| Abstract: | The EU Cohesion Policy, with its capacity to shape the socio-economic development of European regions and cities, also holds the potential to influence the political preferences of citizens. While existing research has explored the effects of EU funding on national electoral outcomes, its impact on local elections remains underexamined, overlooking the inherently territorial nature of Cohesion Policy and the crucial role local policy-makers play in its activation and implementation. This study leverages detailed administrative data on European development projects to examine how EU funds affect political support for incumbent local politicians in Italy. It analyses the relationship between the inflow of European funds and the electoral support for Italian mayors, considering different project types that reflect the mayors’ ability to attract European funds. The findings demonstrate that Cohesion Policy significantly shapes local voting behaviour. Larger, more visible projects significantly increase the likelihood of mayoral re-election. Moreover, municipalities experiencing faster economic growth, where EU projects contribute to public service improvements, witness the strongest electoral gains for incumbents. These results highlight the critical importance of project design, visibility, and effectiveness in determining the political consequences of EU redistributive policies. |
| Keywords: | EU cohesion policy; incumbent re-election; political preferences; redistribution; local voting behaviour |
| JEL: | D72 I38 H70 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128651 |
| By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | Many developing cities are facing rapid population growth and extreme climate events. This paper examines the link between job accessibility and climate vulnerability, using data from Antananarivo, Madagascar, which frequently experiences flooding. As in other countries, the analysis finds that men’s commutes are longer than women’s, who tend to walk to work or use public transport. Even after controlling for observables and the potential endogeneity bias associated with commute time, the findings show that climate vulnerability negatively impacts wages, as people avoid commuting long to work due to anticipated potential climate risks. Building climate resilience into urban transport is therefore essential. As predicted by theory, the evidence also shows that the value of commuting is positive, and walking is disadvantageous. Motorized commuting yields higher returns, which could lead to overuse of private cars and taxis, posing decarbonization challenges. |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11180 |
| By: | Ikeda, Kiyohiro; Kogure, Yosuke; Aizawa, Hiroki; Takayama, Yuki |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how international trade competition influences cross-country migration by using a general equilibrium model of economic geography. We employ a global--local system to represent local places grouped into countries, which collectively form a global network. Through the place-to-country reduction analysis proposed herein, the governing equation at the place level are reduced to a country-level equation that efficiently describes each country’s trade environment. We model and analyze international trade competition---including trade liberalization and protectionism---among the UK, France, and Germany, using the Helpman (1998) model. The recommended strategies for the UK and the EU include reducing domestic transportation costs, while tariffs and retaliatory tariffs act as a double-edged sword, potentially enhancing or undermining their trade positions. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, economic geography model, global--local system, hierarchical spatial economy, reduction analysis, tariffs, trade liberalization, trade strategy. |
| JEL: | F15 F22 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125691 |
| By: | Gorjian, Mahshid |
| Abstract: | BACKGROUND: More U.S. communities are pushing for urban greening to make cities more sustainable and better able to handle climate change. Still, there is growing worried that greening efforts can make gentrification worse and force individuals who are already at risk to move. A recent study shows that improvements to the environment and changes in the housing market in rapidly changing urban areas are connected in many ways. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to empirically look at the order and factors that affect the connection between urban greening and gentrification in Denver, Colorado. The goal is to improve fair urban sustainability policies by looking at both numerical and descriptive data about how neighborhoods change, how people in those neighborhoods feel, and how policies respond. METHODS: A mixed-methods approach was used, which included longitudinal geographic analysis, fieldwork, interviews with stakeholders, surveys of the community, and analysis of policy documents. The study looks at neighborhoods in Denver that are getting a lot of new green infrastructure and are seeing changes in their populations. Difference-in-differences modeling, theme coding, and triangulation of various data sources are all parts of data analysis. RESULTS: The results show that gentrification often happens before major urban greening projects, which sets the stage for future environmental investments that make exclusion and displacement worse. Quantitative models show big increases in eviction filings and rent burden after investments in green infrastructure. Qualitative statistics, on the other hand, show that vulnerable groups are likely to be displaced and that participatory planning is lacking. 1 IMPACT STATEMENT: This study gives new real-world data about how green gentrification changes over time, showing that both market factors and government policies affect how neighborhoods change. The study shows how policies should include anti-displacement strategies in programs to improve the environment and stresses the need for urban planning that is proactive and focused on fairness. Researchers and legislators who want to create fair and long-lasting cities are given suggestions. |
| Date: | 2025–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rnkbf_v1 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the first comprehensive theoretical and empirical framework for analyzing AI-driven spatial distribution dynamics in metropolitan areas undergoing demographic transition. We extend New Economic Geography by formalizing five novel AI-specific mechanisms: algorithmic learning spillovers, digital infrastructure returns, virtual agglomeration effects, AI-human complementarity, and network externalities. Using Tokyo as our empirical laboratory, we implement rigorous causal identification through five complementary econometric strategies and develop machine learning predictions across 27 future scenarios spanning 2024-2050. Our theoretical framework generates six testable hypotheses, all receiving strong empirical support. The causal analysis reveals that AI implementation increases agglomeration concentration by 4.2-5.2 percentage points, with heterogeneous effects across industries: high AI-readiness sectors experience 8.4 percentage point increases, while low AI-readiness sectors show 1.2 percentage point gains. Machine learning predictions demonstrate that aggressive AI adoption can offset 60-80\% of aging-related productivity declines. We provide a strategic three-phase policy framework for managing AI-driven spatial transformation while promoting inclusive development. The integrated approach establishes a new paradigm for analyzing technology-driven spatial change with global applications for aging societies. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.19911 |
| By: | Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University, IZA, CESifo); San, Shmuel (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants’ labor market success. Our context is the mass migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. Once in Israel, these immigrants faced none of the legal barriers that are typically posed by migration regulations around the world, offering a unique backdrop to study undistorted immigrants’ job mobility and resulting unconstrained assimilation. Rich administrative data allows us to follow immigrants for up to three decades after arrival. Differential sorting across firms and differential paysetting within firms both explain important shares of the initial immigrant-native wage gap and subsequent convergence dynamics. Moreover, immigrants are more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder, even in the long term. As such, firm-to-firm mobility is a key driver of these immigrants’ long-run prosperity. Lastly, we quantify a previously undocumented job utility gap when accounting for non-wage amenities, which exacerbates immigrant-native disparities based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:764 |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; Evan Perry; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | Recent natural disasters have renewed concerns about insurance markets for natural disaster relief. In January 2025, wildfires wreaked havoc in residential areas outside of Los Angeles. Direct damage estimates for the Los Angeles wildfires range from $76 billion to $131 billion, with only up to $45 billion of insured losses (Li and Yu, 2025). In this post, we examine the state of another disaster insurance market: the flood insurance market. We review features of flood insurance mandates, flood insurance take-up, and connect this to work in a related Staff Report that explores how mortgage lenders manage their exposure to flood risk. Mortgages are a transmission channel for monetary policy and also an important financial product for both banks and nonbank lenders that actively participate in the mortgage market. |
| Keywords: | flooding; housing; insurance |
| JEL: | G52 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:101400 |
| By: | Jyoti Thakur (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Karthick V (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | Ambedkar viewed urbanisation as an instrument for breaking down the rigid caste-based system prevalent in rural areas. However, the extent to which this holds true in contemporary India raises questions over whether people in urban settings can truly transcend the influence of the entrenched caste system. This paper examines the persistent issues of occupational segregation across gender and socio-religious groups in India's six megacities. First, the paper measures and analyses the levels of occupational segregation across different gender and socio-religious groups, using relevant indices and segregation curves. Second, it assesses the factors contributing to occupational segregation within local markets, with a focus on socio-economic and demographic variables based on regression models. The analysis reveals that caste and religion continue to exert a stronger influence on occupational segregation than gender per se, with the SC/ST and Muslim communities—particularly women—facing the highest levels of exclusion. The study underscores the need for intersectional approaches to policy-making for addressing structural barriers and promoting equitable access to economic opportunities in urban India. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Segregation, Urban Labour Market Dynamics, Gender and Social Identity, Social Exclusion |
| JEL: | J71 J16 J78 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:185 |
| By: | Egan, Paul; McQuinn, Kieran |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp797 |
| By: | Francesco Cinnirella; Elona Harka |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence on the historical role of Compulsory Schooling Laws (CSL) for the spread of mass education is mixed at best. This is also due to the difficulty of identifying exogenous variation in the application of CSL. We exploit an almost unique feature of a CSL in 1877 Italy which was gradually implemented across municipalities based on the teacher to population ratio. This criterion generates a sharp discontinuity which can be exploited to estimate the causal effect of the early implementation of CSL on economic outcomes. Estimates based on a regression discontinuity design show that CSL had a positive long-term effect on innovation and industrial employment. Consistent with the main objective of the reform, CSL had a positive effect on human capital by increasing enrollment rates in technical schools and, more in general, the literacy rate. The results are robust to a series of placebo, falsification and manipulation tests. This study provides important policy implications in favor of the early implementation of CSL to increase the average level of education which, in turns, brings about positive effects on innovation and industrialization. |
| Keywords: | education, industrialization, literacy, patents, liberal Italy |
| JEL: | N33 O14 O43 I25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12043 |
| By: | Ruijun Hou (Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester; School of Economics, University of Bristol); Samuel Baker (School of Economics, University of Bristol); Stephanie von Hinke (School of Economics, University of Bristol; Institute for Fiscal Studies; Institute for the Study of Labor); Hans H. Sievertsen (The Danish Center for Social Science Research, VIVE; School of Economics, University of Bristol; Institute for the Study of Labor); Emil S{\o}rensen (School of Economics, University of Bristol); Nicolai Vitt (School of Economics, University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | We study the long-term health and human capital impacts of local economic conditions experienced during the first 1, 000 days of life. We combine historical data on monthly unemployment rates in urban England and Wales 1952-1967 with data from the UK Biobank on later-life outcomes. Leveraging variation in unemployment driven by national industry-specific shocks weighted by industry's importance in each area, we find no evidence that small, common fluctuations in local economic conditions during the early life period affect health or human capital in older age. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.08159 |
| By: | Paolo Campana. Andrea Giovannetti; Paolo Pin; Roberto Rozzi |
| Abstract: | In this work, we provide empirical evidence on organized criminal groups' (OCGs) behavior across the Liverpool area in the U.K. (Merseyside). We find that violent crimes concerning OCGs concentrate in the areas yielding the highest revenue, while OGCs primarily control areas yielding middle or low revenue. We explain and generalize these empirical observations with a theoretical model examining how OCGs strategically select which area to exploit based on expected revenue and the presence of other OCGs. We prove our results for three OCGs analytically and extend them to larger numbers of OCGs through numerical simulations. Both approaches suggest that, when the frequency of OCG activity is sufficiently high, each OCG controls one area, while the violence between OCGs remains low across all areas. When the frequency of OCG activity reduces, violent collisions between OCGs occur in the areas yielding the highest revenue, while some OCGs retain control over the medium-revenue areas. Our results suggest important policy recommendations. Firstly, if interventions are only violence-driven, they might miss critical underlying factors. Secondly, police operations might have unintended negative externalities in other areas of a city when they target criminal property rights, like increased violence in the areas yielding the highest revenue. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.02561 |
| By: | Rendtel, Ulrich; Gril, Lorena |
| Abstract: | The smearing effect of kernel estimates of the local density, local proportions and local means is used as a means for the construction of anonymized maps. The standard anonymization criteria were derived for the display of case numbers of a predefined area system. However, for kernel estimates there does not exist such a defined area system. We discuss the resulting difficulties of the application of these criteria for kernel estimates. Besides, there are some de-anonymization risks which are specific for kernel estimates. We discuss these topics for data from 1.9 million Berlin taxpayers with known exact address and taxable income. In the conclusions we vote for a much stronger emphasis on the output format of a map and the labelling of the displayed values in the map. |
| Keywords: | Regional maps, Kernel density estimation, Anonymity, Choropleth maps, Taxpayers |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:323243 |
| By: | Landini, Fabio; Lunardon, Davide; Rinaldi, Riccardo; Tredicine, Luigi |
| Abstract: | The need to achieve a safe and just ecological transition is a key target of European policy makers. Green jobs are often presented as key levers to achieve this objective, as they enable the creation of new employment opportunities across a wide spectrum of occupations, including low skill ones. In this paper we investigate if and how these opportunities are seized by one of the most vulnerable segment of the labor force, namely migrants. By relying on detailed administrative data covering more that 12 million contract activations in the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy) we document that, after controlling for potential confounders, migrants are less likely than natives to find employment in green jobs. Moreover, when they do, they have higher chances to be hired with either a fixed-term or an agency contract. Heterogeneity analysis across industries and occupations reveals that such precarious employment patterns are driven primarily by firm attempts to reduce green costs. These results are rationalized through the lenses of institutional segmentation theory. Related policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Green Jobs, Migrant Workers, Precarious Employment, Institutional Segmentation |
| JEL: | Q52 J24 J15 J41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1636 |
| By: | Samuel Dodini; Katrine V. Loken; Petter Lundborg; Alexander Willen |
| Abstract: | We examine the welfare consequences of reallocating high-skilled labor across national borders. A labor demand shock in Norway—driven by a surge in oil prices—substantially increased physician wages and sharply raised the incentive for Swedish doctors to commute across the border. Leveraging linked administrative data across the two countries and a difference-in-differences design, we show that this shift doubled commuting rates and significantly reduced Sweden’s domestic physician supply. The result was a persistent rise in mortality in Sweden, with no corresponding health gains in Norway. These effects were unevenly distributed, disproportionately harming certain places and populations. The underlying mechanism was a severe strain on Sweden’s healthcare system: shortages of high-skilled generalists led to more hospitalizations, premature discharges and higher readmission rates. Mortality effects were larger in low-density physician regions and concentrated in older individuals and acute conditions. |
| Keywords: | brain drain; worker mobility; mortality |
| JEL: | J2 J6 H1 |
| Date: | 2025–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:101405 |
| By: | Felix Degenhardt (University of Potsdam); Jan Sebastian Nimczik (ESMT Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether gig jobs in online food delivery (OFD) are a stepping stone for refugees entering the Austrian labor market. Our identification strategy combines the quasi-random assignment of refugees to Austrian regions with the expansion of gig firms across the country. The local availability of OFD jobs at the time of access to the labor market initially accelerates job finding among refugees. Subsequently, however, gig workers remain in low-paid, unstable jobs with low career prospects, while the employment rate of refugees without gig opportunities catches up. The local availability of gig jobs negatively affects human capital investments and job search behavior, even among refugees outside the gig economy. |
| Keywords: | gig work, refugees, employment restrictions, labor market integration |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J81 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2517 |
| By: | Fraske, Tim |
| Abstract: | The concept of Reallabore (real-world laboratories) has undergone remarkable semantic evolution in Germany - rooted in the experimental turn in social sciences, shaped in sustainability research, and culminating in national innovation policy. This paper frames Reallabore as a travelling concept: a term that shifts in meaning as it moves across institutional, disciplinary, and political contexts. Drawing on perspectives from economic geography, it traces four distinct phases in the evolution of the term, highlighting the tensions and strategic translations that have shaped its development. Understanding such conceptual trajectories is key to interpreting the performative power of innovation discourse in regional policymaking. |
| Keywords: | Economic geography, travelling concept, real-world laboratory, innovation policy, experimental governance |
| JEL: | O31 O38 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:322478 |
| By: | Gupta, Mehul; Kannan, Smruthi Bala; Bhalla, Kavi; Goel, Rahul |
| Abstract: | What are the primary policy and economic barriers to e-bicycle adoption in Delhi, India? In cities in India, individual private mobility is dominated by motorized two-wheelers, with a policy push towards large shifts to electric mobility and, therefore, a sustainable shift in transportation. E-bicycles are at the margins of electric mobility policy and have an ambiguous presence in the policy documents. This paper explores the unique possibilities and challenges that e-bicycles pose in urban India through exploratory qualitative research interviews with current e-bicycle users and retailers in Delhi and other stakeholders such as manufacturers and a policy analyst in Delhi, India. We begin the paper by describing how e-bicycles are defined in the Indian scenario and their place within a spectrum of two-wheelers. Following a description of the research methodology, the paper explores the affordability of e-bicycles, how current taxation and subsidy regimes shape e-bicycle retail, the interviewee’s reflections regarding the safety concerns of using e-bicycles on the city’s roads, its physical health and accessibility benefits, and convenience of charging and repair. We conclude with a discussion on the need for a targeted policy to encourage the adoption of e-bicycles for gains toward reduction in speeds and emissions. |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rfeuv_v1 |
| By: | Edith Sand (Bank of Israel); Guy Levy (Bank of Israel) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of various measures of science teachers' cognitive skills—based on academic degrees, math matriculation scores, and psychometric math scores—on their students’ educational achievements. Utilizing detailed administrative data of 12th grade students and their science teachers, spanning the years 2012 to 2019, we find that teachers' cognitive abilities—mainly those measured by math matriculation scores—have clear and positive effects on both students' short-term matriculation test scores and several long-term measures of academic success, such as the probability of pursuing post-secondary studies at a research university and the probability of choosing a STEM major subject. Additionally, teachers with higher cognitive abilities are shown to lead to higher gains, particularly among students with stronger aptitude and same-gender student-teacher matching. |
| Keywords: | Government Policy, Returns to Education, Higher Education |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2025.04 |
| By: | Santos, Joao Pedro Barbosa; França, Luis Claudio Teixeira; Lima, Brenda L.; Reis, Renato B.; Spínola, Carolina; Martins, Joberto S. B. Prof. Dr. (Salvador University - UNIFACS) |
| Abstract: | Tourism is a valuable source of revenue for countries and communities that contributes to their economic growth. Despite these advantages, tourist travel flow can have unexpected effects, such as spreading diseases, like sexually transmitted infections (STIs), that affect public health. However, identifying possible correlations between tourism activities in regions and disease incidence is a relevant research issue that has not yet been extensively explored. According to the World Health Organization, syphilis is a worldwide STI with an estimated impact of 8 million adults between 15 and 49 years old in 2022. This paper investigates and analyses evidence concerning the correlation between tourism activities and geographical location with syphilis incidence. The correlation analysis uses a machine learning algorithm to cluster the governmental syphilis notification database of Bahia state in Brazil between 2010 and 2019. Evidence analysis suggests correlations between tourism activities in coastal tourism municipalities and the incidence of syphilis. Identified evidence of a correlation allows proactive preventive actions and positively impacts the municipality's public health sector. |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:q58xc_v1 |
| By: | Tolga Benzer (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku); Janne Tukiainen (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether anti-establishment outsider movements can leverage education and youth mobilization to build long-run political power. We study the expansion of state-run religious secondary schools in 1970s Turkiye and show that access to these schools catalyzed the emergence of Islamist youth organizations, which played a central role in ideological formation, grassroots mobilization, and the eventual electoral success of the Islamist movement. Using a novel dataset and a difference-in-differences framework, we show that access to religious schools increased the local presence of Islamist youth organizations in the short run and boosted Islamist party vote share in the medium run. Effects were strongest where youth branches formed soon after school access and engaged in ideologically immersive activities. Individual-level survey evidence shows that exposed male cohorts were more religious and more likely to engage in Islamist party politics later in life. Our findings illustrate how schools and youth organizations—when strategically aligned—can serve as a foundation for enduring political transformation, not only for ruling elites but also for outsider movements seeking to gain power. |
| Keywords: | Schools, Outsider movements, Party youth organizations, Elections, Religion |
| JEL: | D71 D72 I28 P16 P52 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp171 |
| By: | Andrews, Michael J.; Marble, William; Russell, Lauren |
| Abstract: | Social theorists and education advocates have long argued for the civic benefits of education. As large, durable institutions, universities are especially likely to affect the civic life of their communities. We investigate how the establishment of a university alters the civic and political trajectory of the surrounding area. For identification, we leverage historical site selection processes in which multiple locations were considered for new colleges. We bring together data on social capital, political preferences, and elections to assess the long-run impacts of college establishment. Communities with colleges exhibit higher levels of civic engagement and greater social trust today, relative to “runner-up” locations without colleges. These counties are also more politically liberal — a gap that has grown substantially since 2000. Our findings suggest understanding universities as place-based policies that shape the long-run civic and political development of their communities. They also shed light on current political battles over higher education policy. |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5v9zw_v1 |
| By: | Sherry, Maeve; Kassian, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | The Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) legislation came into effect in England from February 2024 and represents a significant shift in planning regulations. Now that the legislation exists – and a new government is in place – this policy report presents the case for integrating BNG and natural flood management to enhance urban resilience, including integration of BNG funding with local authorities’ natural flood risk management projects. This can best be achieved through appropriate policy measures, better leveraging of insurance underwriting solutions, and research and collaboration. The report sets out recommendations for national government, local authorities, the insurance sector and others, intended to help amplify the legislation’s impact. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 E6 |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129057 |
| By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | The paper reexamines how to measure job accessibility in environments with limited data availability and applies different methods to Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar. Job creation and accessibility are attracting renewed interest in developing countries, where unemployment rates remain persistently high. The paper finds two types of job accessibility measures that particularly impact employment: proximity to public transport and average travel time weighted by available job opportunities. For the latter, the paper also finds that new open-source data, such as the Open Buildings data set, are effective in identifying existing job opportunities. Using the measured results, the marginal impact of job accessibility on employment is estimated at about -0.05 to -0.06 after the potential endogeneity of accessibility measures is controlled. |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11181 |
| By: | Serin, Esin; Bian, Lei (Alice); Dasgupta, Shouro; Robinson, Elizabeth; Mercer, Leo; Burke, Josh; Higham, Catherine; Chan, Tiffanie; Mehryar, Sara; Howarth, Candice |
| Abstract: | This report represents a response submitted to an open consultation that ran from 30 July to 24 September 2024 by the UK Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government on proposed reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and other changes to the planning system. |
| Keywords: | UK policy; renewables; planning; onshore wind; housing; production; food; flooding; farming; communities; CCUS; agriculture; adaptation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129068 |
| By: | Severin Diepolder; Andrea Araldo; Tarek Chouaki; Santa Maiti; Sebastian H\"orl; Constantinos Antoniou |
| Abstract: | Shared Mobility Services (SMS), e.g., demand-responsive transport or ride-sharing, can improve mobility in low-density areas, which are often poorly served by conventional Public Transport (PT). Such improvement is generally measured via basic performance indicators, such as waiting or travel time. However, such basic indicators do not account for the most important contribution that SMS can provide to territories, i.e., increasing the potential, for users, to reach surrounding opportunities, such as jobs, schools, businesses, etc. Such potential can be measured by isochrone-based accessibility indicators, which count the number of opportunities reachable in a limited time, and are thus easy for the public to understand. % The potential impact of SMS on accessibility has been qualitatively discussed and implications on equity have been empirically studied. However, to date, there are no quantitative methods to compute isochrone-based indicators of the accessibility achieved via SMS. This work fills this gap by proposing a first method to compute isochrone accessibility of PT systems composed of conventional PT and SMS, acting as a feeder for access and egress trips to/from PT hubs. This method is grounded on spatial-temporal statistical analysis, performed via Kriging. It takes as input observed trips of SMS and summarizes them in a graph. On such a graph, isochrone accessibility indicators are computed. We apply the proposed method to a MATSim simulation study concerning demand-responsive transport integrated into PT, in the suburban area of Paris-Saclay. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.13100 |
| By: | Andrew Mountford (Royal Holloway University of London); Jonathan Wadsworth (Royal Holloway University of London) |
| Abstract: | The empirical migration literature often identifies the labor market effects of immigration using exogenous variation in migration concentration across sectors or regions. However, this approach differences out macroeconomic effects which occur in all sectors. In this paper we apply macroeconomic time series methods to UK data from 2001-2019 for 35 different sectors, to model, for the first time, immigration, native wages and hours worked, as responding to demand, supply and immigration shocks at both aggregate and sectoral levels. The labor market is thereby modeled as being subject to multiple shocks at any one time. Using a VAR approach, we find that the share of migrant labor is `Granger caused' by other labor market variables which suggests that immigration is, in part, endogenously determined by aggregate demand and supply. However, it also retains a component which has a negative association between immigration and native wages, which may be thought of as a `migration shock'. Using historical decompositions which decompose both the error terms and, novelly, the constant terms into their structural parts, we show that the `migration shock' accounts for most of the change in migration share over the sample period and plays a significant negative role in the determination of native wage growth, particularly in unskilled sectors. However other contemporaneous shocks have offsetting positive associations between immigration and native wages, whose effects differ substantially across sectors. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Demand, Supply, Wages, VAR, Sectoral Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J6 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2534 |
| By: | Inoue, Chihiro; Saito, Asumi; Takahashi, Yuki (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | STEM Gender Gap; college choice; gender ratio; preference elicitation; discrete choice experiment |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:d9c3a116-f15b-48b7-b86d-906a7a95f938 |
| By: | Zehao Lin; Ying Liu; Congrong Pan; Lutz Sager |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of air pollution on sentiment using social media data from a panel of Japanese cities. To address concerns about potential endogeneity from unobserved simultaneous determinants of air pollution and sentiment, as well as measurement error, we instrument for air pollution using plausibly exogenous variation in atmospheric wind patterns. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in fine (PM2.5) and small (PM10) particle concentrations reduces overall sentiment by 0.79% and 1.64% standard deviation respectively, which is composed of a more pronounced increase in negative sentiment and a smaller decrease in positive sentiment. Our unique dataset allows us to separately estimate effects on negative sentiment categories including anger, anxiety, and sadness. Our results suggest sentiment as one candidate mechanism, besides physiological and cognitive pathways, to explain the increasingly evident non-health damages from air pollution exposure on work productivity, road safety, sleep and crime. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, Twitter, sentiment, Japan |
| JEL: | I31 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12030 |
| By: | de Vos, Wout (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Grabisch, Michel; Rusinowska, Agnieszka |
| Keywords: | opinion dynamics; polarization; clusters; bounded confidence; non-monotonicity; network formation; continuous opinion |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:2db67b0b-ba8b-46e8-85af-10602d95e658 |
| By: | Yang Bai; Shize Li; Jialu Shen |
| Abstract: | Should a household buy a home? Using data from 16 developed countries spanning 1870 to 2020, this study provides a resounding affirmative answer. Contrary to popular expert advice, homeownership enhances life cycle wealth by up to 9% and welfare by up to 23%, compared to all-equity investment strategy. Homeownership reduces wealth portfolio risk and improves wealth equality, though it comes at the cost of lower working-life wealth and curtailed financial asset holdings. Gains are heterogeneous: Low-income (high-income) households gain more in wealth (welfare), and home purchase during periods of moderately low interest rates and high housing prices maximizes these benefits. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.17624 |
| By: | Nandwani, Bharti; Roychowdhury, Punarjit; Shankar, Binay |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a large-scale rural road construction program-the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)-on the performance of rural manufacturing firms in India. While these firms provide vital non-farm employment in rural areas, their growth is often thought to be constrained by inadequate infrastructure. Leveraging administrative data and the quasi-random rollout of the program, we estimate effects using a two-way fixed effects framework. We find no evidence that improved road connectivity affects turnover, profits, or employment for formal enterprises. In contrast, informal firms experience significant gains in turnover, expenditure, profits, employment, and wage bills. These effects appear to be driven by reductions in infrastructure-related constraints: treated firms report fewer operational problems and less competition from larger firms, particularly in marketing and distribution. Our findings highlight the heterogeneous effects of rural infrastructure expansion and the greater responsiveness of informal enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Firms, India, Infrastructure, Roads, Rural |
| JEL: | D22 O12 O18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1650 |
| By: | Surender Raj Vanniya Perumal; Mark Thissen; Marleen de Ruiter; Elco E. Koks |
| Abstract: | Disasters often impact supply chains, leading to cascading effects across regions. While unaffected regions may attempt to compensate, their ability is constrained by their available production capacity and logistical constraints between regions. This study introduces a Multi-Regional Impact Assessment (MRIA) model to evaluate the regional and macroeconomic consequences of disasters, capturing regional post-disaster trade dynamics and logistical constraints. Our findings emphasize that enhancing production capacity alone is inadequate; regional trade flexibility must also be improved to mitigate disaster impacts. At the regional level, disaster-affected areas experience severe negative impacts, whereas larger, export-oriented regions benefit from increased production activity. Additionally, we propose a sectoral criticality assessment alongside the more common sensitivity and incremental disruption analysis, which effectively identifies sectors with low redundancy while accounting for the potential for regional substitution in a post-disaster scenario. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.00510 |
| By: | Wishnu Badrawani; Citra Amanda; Novi Maryaningsih; Carla Sheila Wulandari |
| Abstract: | Using a panel payment system dataset of thirty-three provinces in Indonesia, we examine the impact of digital payment on the regional economy, considering structural breaks induced by unprecedented events and policies. Digital payments were determined to significantly affect regional income and consumption before and after the identified breakpoint, with the impact greater following the break. Employing a novel method for structural break analysis within interactive effects panel data, we demonstrate that the break in retail payment models is due to COVID-19, and the break in the wholesale payment model is associated with the central bank's payment system policy. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.02119 |