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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Robert Collinson; Deniz Dutz; John Eric Humphries; Nicholas Mader; Daniel Tannenbaum; Winnie van Dijk |
| Abstract: | Eviction may be an important channel for the intergenerational transmission of poverty, and concerns about its effects on children are often raised as a rationale for tenant protection policies. We study how eviction impacts children’s home environment, school engagement, educational achievement, and high school completion by assembling new data sets linking eviction court records in Chicago and New York to administrative public school records and restricted Census records. To disentangle the consequences of eviction from the effects of correlated sources of economic distress, we use a research design based on the random assignment of court cases to judges who vary in their leniency. We find that eviction increases children’s residential mobility, homelessness, and likelihood of doubling up with grandparents or other adults. Eviction also disrupts school engagement, causing increased absences and school changes. While we find little impact on elementary and middle school test scores, eviction substantially reduces high school course credits. Lastly, we find that eviction reduces high school graduation and use a novel bounding method to show that this finding is not driven by differential attrition. The disruptive effects of eviction appear worse for older children and boys. Our evidence suggests that the impact of eviction on children runs through the disruption to the home environment or school engagement rather than deterioration in school or neighborhood quality, and may be moderated by access to family support networks. |
| Keywords: | eviction, homelessness, poverty, tenant protections, rental housing markets, education, child well-being, intergenerational spillovers |
| JEL: | J01 H00 R38 I30 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-34 |
| By: | Bassirou Gueye |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the Canadian economy. This impact was uneven across different workers and businesses. However, there is little information available on how businesses were affected by and survived through the pandemic according to the characteristics of their owners, especially those owned by certain groups such as women and immigrants. These businesses tend to be more financially constrained, operating more in service sectors that require in-person contacts, and hence more vulnerable to the crisis. This article uses a linkage of the monthly business openings and closures with the Canadian Employer-Employee Dynamics Database and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) to study the survival rate and employment growth of businesses by gender, and immigrant status of owners. Specifically, the goal of this analysis is to determine the survival, closure and growth rates of women-owned (WOBs) and immigrant-owned (IOBs) businesses and compare them with men-owned (MOBs) and Canadian-owned (COBs) businesses, respectively. The results suggest that CEWS take-up rates were similar between MOBs and WOBs at the aggregate level but there were some gender differences across sectors. In addition, at the business sector level, WOBs and MOBs showed comparable survival rates. However, although the gap in survival rates between MOBs and WOBs decreased compared to the pre-pandemic period, WOBs were proportionally less likely to survive than MOBs in some sectors. Furthermore, the difference in survival rates between MOBs and WOBs were generally higher among businesses that did not receive the CEWS. Finally, WOBs that did not use the CEWS were more likely to close during the first year of the pandemic than MOBs. Compared to COBs, IOBs were more commonly found in service sectors and were less inclined to use the CEWS across most sectors. Immigrant-owned businesses were also generally smaller, with over three-quarters of them employing fewer than five employees. Regardless of CEWS usage, IOBs had lower survival rates than COBs across most sectors, especially among smaller businesses. However, the survival rate of IOBs was higher than that of COBs among businesses that did not use the CEWS in the accommodation and food services sector. Among businesses that did not use the CEWS, IOBs were more prone to closure in 2020 or 2022 and less likely to expand their workforce. |
| Keywords: | firm performance, size, diversification, scope, entrepreneurship, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:2024005e |
| By: | Imke Reimers; Benjamin Reed Shiller; Benjamin R. Shiller |
| Abstract: | We analyze how self-driving vehicles (SDVs) influence commuter behavior and returns to long-lived public transit investments. Using a commuting mode model estimated on detailed home and work location data from Greater Boston, we simulate the widespread entry of SDVs, which offer passive travel similar to transit but use existing road networks. We find that SDVs increase vehicle miles by 40% while decreasing public transit use by about 10%. Transit improvements continue to moderately boost revenues and lower miles driven, but their effects on mileage are small compared to SDVs. These findings highlight planning challenges posed by the emergence of SDVs. |
| Keywords: | self-driving vehicles, public transit investment, infrastructure planning, transportation economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11956 |
| By: | Nsababera, Olive; Dickens, Richard; Disney, Richard |
| Abstract: | With the rise of forced displacement, attention has turned to the economic impact of refugees. However, few studies investigate long-term impacts. We use data for Tanzania for the period 1985–2015 to examine the effect of camps on urbanisation and local development, exploiting a unique satellite-derived dataset of high spatial resolution and temporal frequency. We show a modest but significant effect of refugee camps on built-up area up to a 100 km distance. We then match camp locations to regional gross domestic product, local consumption spending and employment patterns. Output in areas with camps grew at a faster rate during camp operation, but closure of camps was associated with change in economic activity. Activity induced by camps is largely in non-tradeable goods and services rather than inducing longer run structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | refugee camp; urbanisation; satellite imagery; consumption; spatial |
| JEL: | J61 O15 R12 R14 |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121186 |
| By: | Paolo Croce (Bank of Italy, Economics, Statistics and Research DG, Economic History Division); Matteo Filippi (University of Zurich); Paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy); Andrea Ramazzotti (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Internal migration facilitates an efficient allocation of labor within the economy, but are its sending and receiving areas affected differently? We address this question through the lens of Italy during the Golden Age (1950s-1970s), a period of population reshuffling with no parallel in the country’s history. Exploiting detailed spatial data on migratory flows, we can characterize the impact of short- and long-distance migration on economic development and structural change in the provinces of origin and destination. To tackle endogeneity of migration flows, we build on recent advances in the shift-share IVs literature: we interact past interwar government-authorized migrations with employment growth during the Golden Age to estimate exogenous short-distance migrations; origin-destination railway distances with provinces’ employment growth for long-distance ones. We find that short-distance emigration negatively affected origin provinces’ value added per capita mostly through lower business creation and productivity, while it determined even larger productivity gains in destination provinces. Similarly, although short-distance immigration boosted structural change away from agriculture in favor of the industrial sector, emigration curbs it in the provinces of origin, by reducing employment, value added and productivity in industry. We do not find comparably strong results for long-distance flows, which are shown to negatively affect origin provinces mostly through the employment rate, while the effects on productivity are limited; receiving provinces are also not as affected. We attribute the difference between short and long-distance effects to selection by type of migrants, where the most productive ones tend to favor nearby destinations. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration, Regional development, Economic growth |
| JEL: | J61 N14 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:751 |
| By: | Belchior José , Manuel (Universidade Católica de Moçambique e Universidade Zambeze); André Luis Squarize , Chagas (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the spatial dynamics and convergence of multidimensional poverty across 107 districts in northern and central Mozambique between 2007 and 2017. Using census microdata and the Alkire-Foster method, we construct three indicators – headcount ratio (H), intensity of deprivation (A), and the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) – to assess the evolution of poverty across space and time. The analysis combines exploratory spatial data techniques and spatial econometric models (SLX, SLM, SDM) to test for spatial autocorrelation, absolute and conditional convergence, and the role of demographic and socioeconomic drivers in poverty propagation. Results reveal robust evidence of spatial dependence and convergence in all three indicators. While overall poverty incidence declined, intensity increased among the most deprived, particularly in rural districts. Spatial spillovers are present in both outcome variables and structural covariates, especially illiteracy, population density, and the masculinity index. These findings underscore the need for territorially integrated policy responses, as poverty reduction in one district can generate positive externalities in neighboring areas. The study highlights the relevance of spatially coordinated strategies for addressing persistent territorial inequalities and advancing multidimensional poverty reduction in structurally vulnerable regions. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional poverty; Spatial econometrics; Regional convergence; Mozambique; Spatial spillovers |
| JEL: | C21 I32 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2025_005 |
| By: | David Bernal; Gustavo A. García; Jorge Pérez Pérez |
| Abstract: | We propose a methodology to calculate the mismatch between places of work and places of residence that incorporates monetary and opportunity transportation costs while correcting for possible overestimation of job accessibility. This methodology enables the analysis of spatiotemporal changes in spatial mismatch without discarding data from spatial units that change over time. We apply the methodology to measure spatial mismatch in Medellín, Colombia, for public and private transportation from 2012 to 2017. In line with previous work, our results indicate that including transportation and opportunity costs leads to a more realistic measure of job availability. Despite investments in public transportation and infrastructure, spatial mismatch in Medellín increased between 2012 and 2017. Our analysis shows that job accesibility through private transport decreased more than through public transport, and that the expansion of the latter in Medellín may have mitigated spatial mismatch. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Mismatch;Job Accessibility;Travel Times;Transport Costs;Public and Private Transport |
| JEL: | J61 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-09 |
| By: | Onundur Pall Ragnarsson |
| Abstract: | I examine a granular dataset on residential real estate transactions, both sales and rental, in Iceland’s main urban area, provide descriptive statistics for both markets and develop a hedonic model of the sales market multi-dwelling segment. Main findings are: (1) An average quality difference of 8.8% between sold and rented apartments suggests bias in a non-quality adjusted price-to-rent ratio over the period 2011-2022. Asymmetric quality developments over time in the sales and rental markets also suggest time-varying quality-bias. (2) Accumulated bias in a CPI-deflated non-quality adjusted index for the greater Reykjavík area multi-dwelling sales market, from 2007 to 2024, compared to a quality-adjusted index, is 3.7%. (3) The estimated time-varying new house premium can provide insight into housing sales market supply and demand conditions and aid the identification of housing bubbles. (4) A hedonic price-to-building cost ratio shows different short-run dynamics than a non-quality adjusted ratio. |
| JEL: | J31 C43 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp99 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Simon Fuchs; Illenin O. Kondo; Helene Maghin |
| Abstract: | We show how local worker flow adjustment margins yield a theory-consistent sufficient statistic approximating the welfare effects of local shocks. Furthermore, we isolate a city's insurance value as this approximation's second-order term. Leveraging rich labor flows data across occupations, industries, and cities in France, we estimate spatial and nonspatial flows responses to local labor demand shocks. Less economically diverse French cities experience deeper contractions in gross outflows following negative shocks. In contrast, more economic concentration begets a modestly larger increase in gross worker flows following positive shocks. Altogether, we uncover sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity. |
| Keywords: | sufficient statistic; labor flows; concentration; economic diversity; welfare |
| JEL: | J61 J62 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:101192 |
| By: | Jorge Onrubia; Fernando Pinto; María del Carmen Rodado Ruíz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the predictive relationship between online search behavior and international housing demand, focusing on UK citizens purchasing property in Spain from 2014 to 2024. Using Google Trends data for the search term "Spain villas" alongside official transaction records, we estimate autoregressive(AR), argumented(ARX), and interaction models to asses whether digital intent anticipates real estate purchases.Results show that search intensity significantly enhances model performance before the 2016 Brexit referendum |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2025-08 |
| By: | Giovanni Favara; James Graham; Geng Li |
| Abstract: | Home-related spending in categories such as furnishings, renovations, and repairs is tied to housing market activity, with significant implications for aggregate expenditure dynamics. We refer to this relationship as the home purchase channel of expenditure. Using household-level panel data we estimate that home purchases lead to sizable increases in home-related spending, but not to increases in goods and services unrelated to home purchase. These findings are robust to the use of close-control groups and placebo tests. We then build a heterogeneous household model with housing, home renovations, and home-related durables that is calibrated to match our household-level evidence. Model simulations of housing market shocks generate large fluctuations in home-related and total expenditure. We show that the home purchase channel amplifies aggregate expenditure dynamics, with home-related spending accounting for around half of total spending fluctuations over the housing cycle. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Home purchase; Household spending; Housing cycle |
| JEL: | D12 D15 E21 E32 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-45 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Fabian Bald; Duncan Roth; Tobias Seidel |
| Abstract: | People like to live in certain places, even when higher wages are on offer elsewhere. Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Fabian Bald, Duncan Roth and Tobias Seidel show that once people's preferences are considered, big cities offer a higher quality of life than previously thought. |
| Keywords: | cities, public employment, local multipliers, relocation, creative industries, policy evaluation |
| Date: | 2025–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:704 |
| By: | Valentina Sontheim |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how school starting age (SSA) affects educational outcomes by disentangling the impact of relative and absolute SSA. I use a natural experiment in Switzerland where cutoff dates vary across time and regions and analyze data from 2012-2023. Being younger relative to classmates increases the likelihood of special needs placement and grade retention in early elementary school. These effects are driven by relative, not absolute, SSA and persist for up to eight years, influencing secondary school track placement. Children of less educated parents are more affected, suggesting SSA policies may reinforce educational inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0244 |
| By: | Dimos Andronoudis; Massimo Guidolin; Manuela Pedio |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to introduce and evaluate factor-based (“smart beta”) investment strategies in real estate, using Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)—the real estate counterpart to stocks. Drawing from equity pricing research, we construct five factor portfolios: Size, Value, Investment, Profitability, and Momentum, and examine their performance over the period from January 1993 to December 2020. Our findings provide empirical strong support for Value, Size and Momentum. On the contrary, the premiums associated to Investment and Profitability are highly time varying. We develop smart beta strategies that combine the REIT market portfolio with the factor portfolios to enhance asset allocation. The results demonstrate that these strategies consistently generate superior risk-adjusted returns compared to a passive buy-and-hold approach in the NAREIT index. Furthermore, our findings indicate that REIT-based smart beta strategies can compete with—and, in some instances, exceed—the performance of diversified cross-asset portfolios. |
| Keywords: | real estate factors, REITs, factor investing, smart beta strategies |
| JEL: | G11 G12 R30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25241 |
| By: | Monk Jaimie (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Arthur Grimes (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Housing provides a central foundation for family life, particularly during the crucial early years of a child’s development. While the effects of housing on children’s physical health are becoming well-understood, comparatively little attention has been given to its role in children’s psychological wellbeing. This study investigates how public housing support during a child’s early years affects children’s socio-emotional development and wellbeing in Aotearoa New Zealand, using longitudinal data from nearly 6, 000 children in the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) study. The research focuses on children who lived in public housing during the critical early years period from pregnancy to 9 months and tracks their wellbeing outcomes through to age 12.The study uses growth curve modelling of Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) data collected from 2-9 years of age, alongside a child-reported quality of life measure at age 12. The key finding is that children who began life in public housing were the group facing the most disadvantage and they exhibited higher levels of behavioural difficulties in early childhood than those in other housing tenures. However, their difficulties scores declined more steeply over time, getting closer to their peers by age 9. Prosocial behaviour scores, in contrast, were similar across all tenure types across childhood. When statistical models were run with only the tamariki M?ori sample, results were similar to the whole sample across all outcomes. Importantly, the study highlights the role of extended family living arrangements. A quarter of children lived with relatives, in addition to their parents, during infancy and this rose to nearly half of children in public housing. Children in the group living in wider-family households initially presented with higher behavioural problem scores than those in single-parent households, but their scores declined more rapidly over time. This suggests that families are likely to be sharing housing to save money during a period where earning potential is limited (when a baby is born). While there are well-documented problems associated with household crowding, the emotional and practical support of extended family members may also provide some long-term benefit. These findings reinforce the importance of culturally and contextually appropriate housing support that considers living situations beyond a typical nuclear family. At age 12, children who started life in public housing report quality of life (QoL) that is similar to, or better than, those from private rentals. Factors such as strong relationships with important adults like parents and teachers and reduced exposure to bullying were found to be more strongly associated with quality of life at this age than housing tenure or residential mobility.The study also found that residential mobility had a smaller impact on wellbeing than expected. Frequent moves were only weakly associated with lower QoL after more than four residential moves over childhood. School changes had a more noticeable impact, although this may reflect other confounding factors. Notably, children in public housing experienced only slightly fewer moves as those in private rentals. The findings highlight the importance of early housing support, especially during a child’s formative years. They also suggest that public housing may provide a protective effect over time, helping to reduce initial disadvantage. Nevertheless, targeted early support remains essential to prevent early behavioural difficulties from affecting long-term educational outcomes. This research provides a unique contribution to the research on child wellbeing and housing by including strengths-based wellbeing measures, incorporating child perspectives, and focusing on the early housing experiences of children in New Zealand. |
| Keywords: | public housing; child wellbeing; poverty; child behaviour |
| JEL: | I31 I32 I14 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:25_05 |
| By: | Raffaella Barone |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between non-residential property prices and various social, economic, and environmental indicators within the provinces where these properties are located. We focus on indicators from the Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation and SDSN Italia that track the 17 sustainable development goals, as well as additional factors like crime rates, per capita GDP, and sales frequency. Using a machine learning algorithm, we predicted property sale prices and applied SHapley Additive exPlanations to assess the importance of each variable. Our findings highlight the strong influence of categorical variables and SDG indicators on prices. Finally, we used causal inference to explore how policy interventions might affect property prices. |
| Keywords: | Machine Learning, Real estate market, Financial Stability, Sustainability, Crimes |
| JEL: | B4 C1 G01 R33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25238 |
| By: | Matteo Crosignani; Martin Hiti |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve’s mission and regional structure ask that it always work to better understand local and regional economic activity. This requires gauging the economic impact of localized events, including natural disasters. Despite the economic significance of natural disasters—flowing often from their human toll—there are currently no publicly available data on the damages they cause in the United States at the county level. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters; economic activity |
| JEL: | E32 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:101188 |
| By: | Susan M. Collins |
| Abstract: | Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President and CEO Susan M. Collins shared remarks at The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 event hosted by the Harvard Joint Center on Housing Studies and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. President Collins' remarks focus on issues related to housing data, housing affordability, the importance of housing in the economy, and the Federal Reserve’s engagement in housing issues – especially with the regional-economy perspective. |
| Keywords: | housing; housing affordability; community development |
| Date: | 2025–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:101198 |
| By: | Assaad, Ragui; Ginn, Thomas; Saleh, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | While labor market impacts of refugees in low- and middle-income countries are commonly studied, public services like education could also be affected by mass arrivals. This paper examines the impact of Syrian refugees on the educational outcomes of Jordanians. Combining detailed household surveys with school-level records on the density of Syrians, we study both the quantity and quality of education using a difference-in-differences design across refugee prevalence and schooling cohort. We find no evidence that Syrians significantly affected the educational outcomes of Jordanians. We show that the government’s response of establishing second shifts in existing public schools and opening new schools in camps mitigated potential overcrowding. |
| Keywords: | education; refugees; forced migration; Middle East |
| JEL: | I21 J61 N35 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119332 |
| By: | Michael P. Keane; Xiangling Liu |
| Abstract: | We present a dynamic life-cycle model of demand for owner-occupied housing, investment property and liquid assets. Households face transaction costs, downpayment requirements, liquidity constraints, and tax preferences for owner-occupied housing. The model replicates key facts about home ownership, liquid assets, debt and consumption. It predicts taxing imputed rent would raise enough revenue to fund a 9.15% income tax rate cut, and increase ex ante welfare of all agents. Eliminating the mortgage interest deduction (MID) also gives a Pareto improvement. Replacing MID with a refundable 24.6% mortgage interest credit would increase the ownership rate by 5.9%. Gains are concentrated among low to middle income households and young households, as housing becomes more affordable for them. |
| JEL: | G11 G51 H20 H31 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33809 |
| By: | Bazoumana Ouattara |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how African cities can reconcile rapid urbanization and development imperatives with urgent decarbonization goals through structural transformation. It begins by mapping key sources of urban carbon-energy poverty, inefficient buildings, poor planning, transport systems, waste management, and construction practices-and quantifies their contributions to emissions. |
| Keywords: | Structural transformation, Urbanization, Green cities, Investments, Governance, Carbon emission intensity, low-carbon future |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-43 |
| By: | Ferman, Bruno; Finamor, Lucas; Portela Souza, André; Silva Filho, Geraldo |
| Abstract: | While a substantial body of research documents a positive correlation between school management practices and student outcomes, experimental evidence on their causal effects --- particularly over the long term --- remains limited. We exploit the randomized implementation of "Jovem de Futuro, '' a management program implemented in Brazilian public high schools. Drawing on rich administrative data, we follow students' educational and labor market trajectories over fifteen years. We find short-term improvements in test scores and high school completion. In the long run, however, the program yields null to modest effects on college enrollment and graduation, labor market participation, and earnings. |
| Keywords: | School management, long-term effects of education |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124394 |
| By: | Max Nathan; Henry G. Overman; Capucine Riom; Maria Sanchez-Vidal |
| Abstract: | Moving public agencies out of London was a major plank of the levelling-up agenda. Max Nathan, Henry Overman, Capucine Riom and Maria Sanchez-Vidal show how the BBC's move to Salford had a positive effect on the local economy, albeit one that was smaller than expected. |
| Keywords: | cities, public employment, local multipliers, relocation, creative industries, policy evaluation |
| Date: | 2025–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:705 |
| By: | Philip Verwimp |
| Abstract: | The northern provinces of Burundi have suffered from subordination in the education system since independence. This paper shows that the post-war, northern-led regime has chosen a drastic way to reverse that subordination. The national test (Concours National) at the end of primary school is at the heart of the matter. Using the universe of individual test score data which can be used to construct a school-level panel and applying difference-in-differences analysis, the paper shows strong improvements in test scores in northern versus southern schools since the ruling party won an absolute majority in the 2010 elections. Right after, schools situated in very poor, rural areas in the north score as high as schools in non-poor areas of the capital. The paper finds that increased success rates, improved mean test scores and decreased standard deviations are explained by the % of votes at the municipality level obtained by the ruling party in the 2010 parliamentary elections. Controlling for school budget per capita does not change the results. The latter are interpreted in the political economy of education reform in Burundi and considered as a case of ethno-regional favoritism in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Burundi; Elections; Ethno-regional favoritism; School test scores |
| Date: | 2023–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/371674 |
| By: | McCarthy, Barra (Central Bank of Ireland); Navarro Ramírez, Carlos (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Overall, the difference between non-bank and bank interest rates is not economically meaningful for most loans, with non-bank interest rates, on average, 58 basis points higher than banks, controlling for loan and borrower characteristics. Non-banks provide loans somewhat faster than banks, which borrowers may be willing to pay additional interest for. However, loans associated with real estate, a sector which accounts for 50% of non-bank lending in recent years, have a higher premium, implying these lenders are enabling access to a different segment of the credit market. While this lending can entail macro-financial benefits, by supporting property development and diversifying risk across the financial system, it also means that non-bank real estate lending may be highly sensitive to market conditions. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:stafin:1/si/25 |
| By: | Federico Fabio Frattini; Francesco Vona; Filippo Bontadini; Italo Colantone |
| Abstract: | What are the job multipliers of the green industrialization? We tackle this question within EU regions over the period 2003-2017, building a novel measure of green manufacturing penetration that combines green production and regional employment data. We estimate local job multipliers of green penetration in a long-difference model, using a shift-share instrument that exploits plausibly exogenous changes in non-EU green innovation. We find that a 3-years change in green penetration per worker increases the employment-to-active population ratio by 0.11 pp. The effect is: persistent both in manufacturing and outside manufacturing; halved by agglomeration effects that increase the labour market tightness; stronger for workers with high and low-education; and present also in regions specialized in polluting industries. When focusing on large shocks in a staggered DiD design, we find ten times larger effects, particularly in earlier periods. |
| Keywords: | green industrialisation, local job multipliers, employment effects of the green transition, shift-share IV design, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J21 O14 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11939 |
| By: | Alda Botelho Azevedo (Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa); Inês Gonçalves (Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa); João Pereira dos Santos (Queen Mary University of London, ISEG – University of Lisbon, and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Our study investigates public opinion on the housing affordability crisis in Portugal through a nationally representative survey combined with an information provision experiment. Participants were asked to identify perceived causes of rising housing prices, assess their factual knowledge of the housing market and sociodemographic trends, and indicate their preferred policy solutions, carefully framed to reflect trade-offs. Half of the respondents were randomly assigned to receive official statistical information on these trends before indicating their policy preferences. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in beliefs about the causes of the crisis, pervasive misperceptions regarding market trends, and a limited impact of information provision on policy preferences. These results underscore the challenges of addressing housing policy through informational interventions alone and highlight the need for strategies that integrate behavioral and contextual factors to foster informed public engagement. |
| Keywords: | Real estate prices; Information-provision experiment; Population; Tourism; Portugal |
| JEL: | R31 F60 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:191 |
| By: | Benjamin Lockwood; Francesco Porcelli; James Rockey |
| Abstract: | This paper uses an instrumental variable approach based on close elections to evaluate the effects of political parties on local fiscal policy in England from 1998 to 2015. Our main finding is that when we condition on the central government grant, political control of the council by Labour or Conservative parties has no effect on total service expenditure, the composition of that expenditure, and the property tax rate (council tax per band D property). We find the same null results for capital expenditure, debt, and authorized debt limits. Using data on the distribution of income within local authorities, we find no evidence that this null result is being driven by homogeneous electorates rather than fiscal constraints. Thus, our results confirm the widely expressed belief that centrally imposed constraints on local government fiscal policy (rate-capping, and more recently, compulsory referenda, and the Prudential Code for borrowing) hold local government fiscal policy in a tight grip. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2025-06 |
| By: | Francesco Ferlenga; Stephanie Kang |
| Abstract: | We study how expanding immigrants’ rights affects their political and social integration by exploiting Romania’s accession to the EU in 2007, which granted municipal voting and residency rights to Romanian immigrants in Italy. Using an event-study analysis at the municipality level, we find three key results. First, enfranchisement increased Romanians’ turnout and the likelihood of electing Romanian-born councilors in municipal elections, particularly in competitive races. An instrumented difference-in-differences strategy shows that this effect is driven by the enfranchisement of preexisting immigrants, not by new arrivals. Second, the rate of consent to organ donation among Romanian immigrants increased after 2007, indicating that the expansion of rights extends beyond political representation to prosocial behavior. However, we also find that the presence of immigrants still increases the probability of right-leaning party victories and municipal spending on public security, while reducing spending on social programs. This suggests that native backlash to immigrant presence outweighs the political influence of newly enfranchised immigrant communities in shaping local electoral outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2025-04 |
| By: | Michael Balzer |
| Abstract: | Researchers in urban and regional studies increasingly deal with spatial data that reflects geographic location and spatial relationships. As a framework for dealing with the unique nature of spatial data, various spatial regression models have been introduced. In this article, a novel model-based gradient boosting algorithm for spatial regression models with autoregressive disturbances is proposed. Due to the modular nature, the approach provides an alternative estimation procedure which is feasible even in high-dimensional settings where established quasi-maximum likelihood or generalized method of moments estimators do not yield unique solutions. The approach additionally enables data-driven variable and model selection in low- as well as high-dimensional settings. Since the bias-variance trade-off is also controlled in the algorithm, implicit regularization is imposed which improves prediction accuracy on out-of-sample spatial data. Detailed simulation studies regarding the performance of estimation, prediction and variable selection in low- and high-dimensional settings confirm proper functionality of the proposed methodology. To illustrative the functionality of the model-based gradient boosting algorithm, a case study is presented where the life expectancy in German districts is modeled incorporating a potential spatial dependence structure. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.13682 |
| By: | Mario F. Carillo (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, IPEG and CSEF); Lavinia Piemontese (Bocconi University, Unit CLEAN, BAFFI); Francesco Flaviano Russo (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of migrant integration policies on local wealth, with a focus on the timing of their implementation. Leveraging a unique policy measure that converted centers providing temporary reception for refugees into centers aimed at integrating them in the hosting society, we conduct an event study analysis. Our findings reveal that the timing of integration policy is important: implementation during heightened public attention to immigration negatively impacts local wealth. By contrast, integration interventions implemented during periods of low attention have no impact on wealth. Our findings highlight that the backlash effect of integration policy estimated in the literature might be largely explained by extreme public perceptions of the migration crisis. |
| Keywords: | correlation neglect, bounded rationality, violations of first order stochastic dominance. |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:738 |
| By: | Matteo Crosignani; Martin Hiti |
| Abstract: | We introduce the first comprehensive publicly available dataset on county-level damages, injuries, and fatalities from natural disasters in the U.S. and present a few facts on the economic and human costs of extreme climate events. Our source is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Events Database, which reports losses for geographic areas largely defined based on meteorological science. We map these areas to counties using geographic tools together with the spatial distribution of population, housing stock, and economic activity. Our estimates are particularly accurate for severe disasters. The Losses from Natural Disasters dataset is regularly updated at https://newyorkfed.org/research/policy/n atural-disaster-losses. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters; physical risk |
| JEL: | H12 H71 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:101189 |
| By: | Nicolas Houli\'e |
| Abstract: | I show that house prices can be modeled using machine learning (kNN and tree-bagging) and a small dataset composed of macro-economic factors (MEF), including an inflation metric (CPI), US treasury rates (10-yr), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and portfolio size of central banks (ECB, FED). This set of parameters covers all the parties involved in a transaction (buyer, seller, and financing facility) while ignoring the intrinsic properties of each asset and encompassing local (inflation) and liquidity issues that may impede each transaction composing a market. The model here takes the point of view of a real estate trader who is interested in both the financing and the price of the transaction. Machine Learning allows for the discrimination of two periods within the dataset. Unconventional policies of central banks may have allowed some institutional investors to arbitrage between real estate returns and other bond markets (sovereign and corporate). Finally, to assess the models' relative performances, I performed various sensitivity tests, which tend to constrain the possibilities of each approach for each need. I also show that some models can predict the evolution of prices over the next 4 quarters with uncertainties that outperform existing index uncertainties. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.09620 |
| By: | Stefaniia Parubets; Hisahiro Naito |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of satellite-derived tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations as a proxy for economic activity in Japan. While nighttime light (NTL) data has been widely used to approximate economic output, recent research has highlighted its' key limitations. In particular, the relationship between NTL and economic outcomes weakens in sub-sample analyses with shorter time spans or restricted geographic coverage. NTL data also faces several key limitations: saturation in dense urban areas reduces measurement accuracy, capturing nighttime emissions fails to account for essential daytime economic activity, inconsistent sensors across different satellites introduce measurement variability, and the technology's sensitivity diminishes when differentiating economic development beyond certain brightness thresholds. Our results show that NO2's effectiveness as an economic proxy is highly dependent on spatial resolution. Using 0.25 degree esolution NO2 data, we find statistically significant relationships with prefecture-level GDP across multiple sectors. Mining shows the strongest elasticity (3.02%), followed by electricity, gas, and water (1.51%), and manufacturing (0.48%). Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries exhibit negative associations (-0.11%), consistent with vegetation serving as NO2 sinks. However, when using higher resolution 0.1 degree NO2 data, these relationships largely disappear, with most coefficients becoming statistically insignificant and sometimes counterintuitive. These findings highlight the importance of matching satellite data resolution to the geographic scale of economic analysis, with coarser resolution being optimal for prefecture-level analysis in Japanese context. This research demonstrates NO2's potential as a more reliable alternative to NTL for economic monitoring when appropriately calibrated. This study examines the effect of exports on subnational income and regional inequality between urban (trade hub) and rural (non–trade hub) areas, using nighttime luminosity as a proxy for economic activity. We construct a country-period panel dataset covering 104 countries, based on five-year average data from 1997 to 2020. Trade hub areas are defined as the union of areas within a 30 km or 50 km radius of each of the three largest ports and three international airports in a country, while all remaining areas are classified as non–trade hub areas. To address endogeneity, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach, using predicted trade as an instrumental variable. Predicted trade is derived from a dynamic gravity equation in which time dummies are interacted with sea and air transport distances. This instrument captures variation in transportation costs driven by technological advances that have shifted trade from sea to air, thereby influencing trade volumes. Our results show that a 1\% increase in exports raises nighttime luminosity by 0.3% in trade hub areas and by 0.06\% in non–trade hub areas. Export growth also leads to population increases in trade hub areas, but not in non–trade hub areas. Furthermore, we find that a 1% increase in exports raises nighttime luminosity per capita by 0.18% in trade hub areas and by 0.06% in non–trade hub areas. These findings suggest that while exports stimulate economic activity in trade hubs, population inflows partially offset per capita gains. Nonetheless, exports significantly exacerbate regional inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2025-002 |
| By: | Michael D. Bates; Andrew C. Johnston |
| Abstract: | Theoretical rationales for employer-provided pensions often focus on their ability to increase employee effort and selectively retain quality workers. We test these hypotheses using rich administrative data on public school teachers around the pension-eligibility threshold. When teachers cross the threshold, their effective compensation drops by over 50 percent of salary due to sharply reduced pension accrual rates. Standard economic models predict this compensation reduction should decrease teacher effort and output, yet we observe no such decline. This suggests that yearly pension accruals near retirement do not meaningfully increase effort. Similarly, if pensions selectively retained better teachers, we would expect average teacher quality to decline when the retentive incentive disappears at the threshold. Instead, we find no change in the composition of teacher quality, suggesting pensions do not selectively retain higher-performing workers in late career. |
| JEL: | H55 I21 J33 J45 M52 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33986 |
| By: | Victoria Biagi; Alexander Cardazzi; Zachary Porreca |
| Abstract: | Violence is often viewed as an intrinsic feature of illicit markets, driven by competition, disputes, and predation. We argue that the connection between violence and markets is not exclusive to illicit markets and that in the absence of strong institutions these factors exist ubiquitously. Using an estimator of spatial concentration, we document the empirical relationship between violence and markets in the 14th century. We then employ a large language model to analyze the coroner’s accounts of the era’s homicides, finding that many of these incidents were driven by avoidable escalations of business-related disputes. Employing a novel difference-in-differences estimator for spatial concentration, we proceed to causally identify the impacts of the introduction of London’s first professional police force in the 19th century on this concentration. We find that the police force’s introduction led to a 54% reduction in the degree of concentration of violence around marketplaces. Our findings suggest that it is not the nature of the commodities being sold in illicit markets that drives violence, but is rather the absence of formal institutions of enforcement and dispute resolution |
| Keywords: | marketplace violence, medieval violence; spatial concentration; local large language model |
| JEL: | K42 N93 R12 C21 K40 N90 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25239 |
| By: | Anna Laura Baraldi; Claudia Cantabene; Alessandro De Iudicibus; Giovanni Fosco; Erasmo Papagni |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how natural disasters shape electoral preferences by analyzing the impact of earthquakes in Italy between 1990 and 2019. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we estimate that affected municipalities are more likely to elect female, more educated, and older city councilors. Similar shifts occur for mayors. These effects persist across election cycles and are robust to alternative specifications. We rule out competing explanations such as changes in turnout or candidate supply. The findings suggest that crises push voters to favor politicians perceived as more competent, experienced, and prosocial. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters; Electoral behavior; Local elections; Political seÂlection; Gender and representation; Earthquakes; Difference-in-Differences; Voter preferences |
| JEL: | D72 H84 J16 C23 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2025_06 |
| By: | Alessandra Cascarico (Bocconi University, Dondena and CESifo.); Edoardo Di Porto (CSEF, INPS, Università di Napoli Federico II, UCFS, Uppsala University); Joanna Kopinska (University of Rome La Sapienza); Salvatore Lattanzio (Bank of Italy and Dondena) |
| Abstract: | Relying on a reform that increased parental leave generosity, we estimate workplace peer effects in the use of leave, with a focus on fathers. Coworker fathers are more likely to take parental leave when exposed to a higher share of peer fathers, who are exogenously affected by the reform. This effect is stronger in larger establishments, those with higher levels of social capital and higher use of parental leave before the reform. We also document that own-gender peer effects are larger than cross-gender influences, and show the absence of career costs for fathers exposed to the reform, which provides an explanation for our findings. Peer effects extend to coworker fathers’ partners, who experience an increase in earnings and labor supply. Peer effects are observed also for mothers, but the response of their partners is less pronounced. |
| Keywords: | Parental leave, Peer effects, Career costs, Female labor market participation. |
| JEL: | G33 K22 L25 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:748 |
| By: | Adrienne M. Lucas; Patrick J. McEwan; David Torres Irribarra |
| Abstract: | Since 1991, Chile has provided large, renewable cash grants to indigenous children in lower-income households, conditional on school enrollment. We estimate intent-to-treat effects of grant exposure on indigenous adults and their children, leveraging variation in expected grant exposure across birth cohorts and never-treated adults, and using fixed effects to absorb unobserved variables shared by adults born in the same year and community. Cohorts with the greatest exposure had 0.6 more years of schooling, 10% more hours worked, and 22% higher labor earnings, reducing pre-treatment ethnic differences. Mothers’ exposure increased their children’s early-grade test scores and reduced second-generation grant receipt. |
| JEL: | I24 I28 I38 O10 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33798 |
| By: | Borys Grochulski; Zhu Wang |
| Abstract: | We build a model to explain the 6 percent real estate broker commission observed in the U.S. In our model, brokers operate a two-sided platform for trading homes. Using small-value handouts and exclusive buyer representation contracts, the platform captures the vast majority of buyers, thereby gaining a monopolist's position vis-á-vis the sellers. Home sellers' only outside option is to move while retaining ownership of their homes. Absentee homeownership, however, entails costs. As a monopolist, the platform sets its commission fee equal to the costs of absentee ownership. With these costs proportional to the home's value, the platform's optimal commission rate is the same for all homes, and remains insensitive to fluctuations in home valuations, while the platform's profit is pro-cyclical. The commission rate is also insensitive to reductions in underlying search costs because the seller's outside option does not involve selling the home. The model implies that commission rates should be higher where price rent ratios are higher—a prediction we verify in the data. We also consider optimal regulation: a ban on exclusive buyer representation contracts implements a second-best optimal allocation, in which the platform charges lower commissions that are sensitive to both home valuations and search costs. |
| Keywords: | real estate brokers; broker commission; two-sided platforms; monopolist pricing |
| JEL: | D42 L12 L85 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:101191 |
| By: | Andreas B. Vortisch; Evangelos Paschalidis; Michel Beine; Michel Bierlaire |
| Abstract: | On 5 September 2015, the German government suspended the EU's Dublin III regulations, allowing all asylum seekers to apply for asylum in Germany. This policy change motivated more than one million people, especially Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis, to enter the country. This study examines the impact of this policy change on migration aspirations and actions in 11 Arab countries, assessing whether it increased migration pressure toward Germany. We find that while the policy raised migration aspirations, it did not significantly affect concrete migration plans and therefore immigration pressures. Instead, age and personal networks abroad play more decisive roles in shaping such plans. Additionally, territorial control by IS in certain regions served as a distinct push factor. We also analyze migration preparations and find that age and networks abroad remain key determinants. Our results also suggest that the policy may have altered the composition of those planning to migrate. |
| Keywords: | migration aspirations, migration plans, immigration policies, refugees |
| JEL: | C25 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11952 |
| By: | Matthew Collin (EU Tax Observatory, Paris School of Economics, NMBU); Florian M. Hollenbach (Copenhagen Business School); David Szakonyi (George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of beneficial ownership transparency in the British real estate market. In an effort to reduce illicit investment following the invasion of Ukraine, the UK government announced a new law in 2022 requiring offshore companies that owned domestic real estate to identify their ultimate owners in a public register. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we find that new property purchases by companies registered in tax havens fell relative to those made via non-havens, a result consistent with transparency raising the costs of illicit investment. These declines persist even after dropping tax havens favored by Russians, suggesting that the reform drove the decline, rather than sanctions. We do not find strong evidence of price effects nor substitution into ownership through suspicious domestic companies. While the policy does appear to have been effective at deterring some anonymous investment into the British property market, incomplete implementation led some clients to still successfully shield their ownership information, implying scope for better design and enforcement in the future. |
| Keywords: | Illicit financial flows, tax havens, real estate, transparency, hidden wealth |
| JEL: | D73 F21 K42 R30 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:wpaper:028 |
| By: | Yuanmo He; Milena Tsvetkova |
| Abstract: | Consumption practices are determined by a combination of economic, social, and cultural forces. We posit that lower economic constraints leave more room to diversify consumption along cultural and social aspects in the form of omnivorous or lifestyle-based niche consumption. We provide empirical evidence for this diversity hypothesis by analysing millions of mobile-tracked visits from thousands of Census Block Groups to thousands of stores in New York State. The results show that high income is significantly associated with diverse consumption across brands and price levels. The associations between diversity and income persist but are less prominent for necessity-based consumption and for the densely populated and demographically diverse New York City. The associations replicate for education as an alternative measure of socioeconomic status and for the state of Texas. We further illustrate that the associations cannot be explained by simple geographic constraints, including the neighbourhoods' demographic diversity, the residents' geographic mobility and the stores' local availability, so deeper social and cultural factors must be at play. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.13840 |
| By: | Hisaki KONO; Hoang-Minh LE; Manabu NOSE; Yasuyuki SAWADA |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the local economic impacts of industrial zones (IZs) in Vietnam, focusing on how their sectoral orientation within production networks shapes effectiveness. Using panel data on registered firms and a newly compiled dataset on IZ locations and sectoral compositions, we estimate the dynamic effects of IZ establishment on firm entry and employment through staggered difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods. We find that IZs lead to sustained increases in both firm and worker density over a 6–10 year horizon, indicating substantial local economic gains. These effects are particularly pronounced in zones oriented toward downstream industries—those that create demand for upstream suppliers—while upstream orientation does not predict stronger outcomes. We further show that backward production linkages mediate these gains, suggesting that demand-side constraints, rather than input frictions, may be more binding in developing country contexts. The results highlight not only the overall effectiveness of IZs but also the importance of aligning industrial policy design with the structure of production networks to maximize spatial development benefits. |
| Keywords: | Industrial zones, production linkage |
| JEL: | O12 O14 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-25-005 |
| By: | Feng Hou and Max Stick |
| Abstract: | Canada has long been a destination for American expatriates because of its geographic proximity, familiar culture and similar socioeconomic environment. However, migration flows have historically fluctuated in response to economic, political and social factors (Boyd, 1981; Kobayashi & Ray, 2005). Notably, shifts in U.S. administration policies—particularly those affecting immigration, labour markets and social stability—have influenced U.S. residents’ intentions to move north (Croucher, 2011). |
| Keywords: | migration, Canada, United States, immigration, temporary residents |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:2025003e |
| By: | Yu Sasaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of postal service in city growth in pre-industrial France. Extant research shows that modern-day state-funded infrastructure projects, such as railways, predict growth. I examine the consequences of the post when the pace of expansion was slow and technological innovations were few. I highlight how the French post evolved from the crown- only information tool to a public service and how investments on the physical infrastructure lagged behind. Digitizing untapped published sources, I construct market access via postal routes on the city level from 1500–1850. My analysis finds that it is strongly negatively as- sociated with growth. It also highlights how the proximity to rivers matters to growth, while more geographically-bounded interactions are not impactful. My instrumental-variable esti- mation points to how post-Roman political consolidation in Gaul misaligned the subsequent urban networks from contemporary perspectives, leaving an ill-conceived design on which the French post was built. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1253 |
| By: | Torben M. Andersen |
| Abstract: | Migration is vividly considered to be a particular challenge for extended welfare states like the Nordics since high taxes and entitlement to the social safety net and provision of welfare services may create both pull and push effects in migration. The financial viability of the model is challenged if immigrants tend to be net beneficiaries and emigrants net contributors to the welfare arrangement. Critical for this issue is the labour market performance of migrants. The experience of the Nordic countries is reviewed, and the possibility of reconciling the welfare model with migration is discussed, focusing in particular on employment and public finances. Policy responses to protect welfare systems by introducing conditionalities in the social safety net based on residency and employment, as well as differentiated and selective immigration rules, are discussed. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11955 |
| By: | Aristide Houndetoungan |
| Abstract: | I propose a flexible structural model to estimate peer effects across various quantiles of the peer outcome distribution. The model allows peers with low, intermediate, and high outcomes to exert distinct influences, thereby capturing more nuanced patterns of peer effects than standard approaches that are based on aggregate measures. I establish the existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium and demonstrate that the model parameters can be estimated using a straightforward instrumental variable strategy. Applying the model to a range of outcomes that are commonly studied in the literature, I uncover diverse and rich patterns of peer influences that challenge assumptions inherent in standard models. These findings carry important policy implications: key player status in a network depends not only on network structure, but also on the distribution of outcomes within the population. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.12920 |
| By: | Nicola Fontana (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Urbanization has transformed cities into the economic hubs of high-income countries, yet concerns about declining social capital persist. This paper investigates the impact of changes in neighbourhood composition on social capital within London. I show how neighbourhoods with higher short-term renting penetration experience a reduction in charitable organizations and increased feelings of loneliness. These results cannot be attributed uniquely to a change of composition in the long-term residents, but they also reflect changes in the behaviours of residents. Moreover, I find that higher short-term renting penetration is associated with a decrease in neighbourhood quality. |
| Keywords: | Civic Engagement; Social Capital; Short-term Renting |
| JEL: | P00 A13 Z18 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0525 |
| By: | Shafiqullah Yousafzai; Hisahiro Naito |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of exports on subnational income and regional inequality between urban (trade hub) and rural (non–trade hub) areas, using nighttime luminosity as a proxy for economic activity. We construct a country-period panel dataset covering 104 countries, based on five-year average data from 1997 to 2020. Trade hub areas are defined as the union of areas within a 30 km or 50 km radius of each of the three largest ports and three international airports in a country, while all remaining areas are classified as non–trade hub areas. To address endogeneity, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach, using predicted trade as an instrumental variable. Predicted trade is derived from a dynamic gravity equation in which time dummies are interacted with sea and air transport distances. This instrument captures variation in transportation costs driven by technological advances that have shifted trade from sea to air, thereby influencing trade volumes. Our results show that a 1\% increase in exports raises nighttime luminosity by 0.3% in trade hub areas and by 0.06\% in non–trade hub areas. Export growth also leads to population increases in trade hub areas, but not in non–trade hub areas. Furthermore, we find that a 1% increase in exports raises nighttime luminosity per capita by 0.18% in trade hub areas and by 0.06% in non–trade hub areas. These findings suggest that while exports stimulate economic activity in trade hubs, population inflows partially offset per capita gains. Nonetheless, exports significantly exacerbate regional inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2025-001 |
| By: | Matthew O. Jackson |
| Abstract: | I discuss economic and social sources of inequality and elaborate on the role of social networks in inequality, economic immobility, and economic inefficiencies. The lens of social networks clarifies how the entanglement of people's information, opportunities, and behaviors with those of their friends and family leads to persistent differences across communities, resulting in inequality in education, employment, income, health, and wealth. The key role of homophily in separating groups within the network is highlighted. A network perspective's policy implications differ substantially from a narrower economic perspective that ignores social structure. I discuss the importance of ``policy cocktails'' that include aspects that are aimed at both the economic and social forces driving inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.13016 |
| By: | Davide M. Coluccia; Gaia Dossi |
| Abstract: | Novel products, processes and technologies are important drivers of economic growth. Davide Coluccia and Gaia Dossi show how migrants from Britain to the United States in the late 19th and early 20th century not only took new ideas with them, but also helped to bring American innovations back to the old country. |
| Keywords: | age of mass migration, innovation, networks, out-migration |
| Date: | 2025–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:708 |
| By: | John Eric Humphries (Yale University); Juanna Schr¿ter Joensen (University of Chicago); Gregory F. Veramendi (University of London) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how high school specialization shapes college investment decisions and their subsequent returns through dynamic complementarities. Using Swedish administrative data, we estimate a dynamic Roy model that accounts for selection on multidimensional skills, family background, prior investments, and unobserved heterogeneity. We identify the model using rich skill measures and quasi-experimental variation in program popularity. For marginal students, STEM specialization in high school increases wages by 9%, with more than half this return attributed to dynamic complementarities that enhance the productivity of subsequent college investments. Consequently, we find that counterfactual policies encouraging high school STEM specialization generate twice the returns of equivalent college-level interventions. These findings demonstrate how the timing of specialized human capital investments matters during adolescence, with important implications for education policies that encourage or restrict specialization. |
| Date: | 2025–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2446 |
| By: | Toshiyuki Uemura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a theoretical model based on the optimization behaviors of households and local governments for the hometown tax donation (Furusato Nozei) system in Japan, which has garnered attention as a new means of obtaining financial resources for local governments. Further, it conducts theoretical, numerical simulation, and empirical analyses. This study is the first to apply the Krugman model, which focuses on brand power and the transportation cost of reciprocal gifts and addresses differentiated goods and spatial trade. The empirical analysis targets municipalities in Hokkaido because of (1) the brand power of Hokkaido products and (2) the fact that transport to Honshu is almost exclusively limited to airports and ports; thus, transportation costs can be analyzed. This study is also the first to use the transportation distance of reciprocal gifts measured using a road network. Comparative statics analysis based on the theoretical model revealed the following trends: Higher reciprocal gift prices reduce reciprocal gift consumption but have an indeterminate impact on donation amounts; stronger brand power increases both donation amounts and reciprocal gift consumption; and higher transportation costs reduce reciprocal gift consumption. Reciprocal gift ratio, brand power, and transportation costs also affect the optimal reciprocal gift price. Finally, the empirical analysis based on municipal data for Hokkaido confirms that the price of reciprocal gifts does not significantly affect donation amounts and negatively affects reciprocal gift consumption, whereas the number of reciprocal gift types (a proxy variable for brand power) positively affect both donation amounts and reciprocal gift consumption. Transportation distance to airports and ports negatively affects both, which is consistent with the results of the theoretical model. |
| Keywords: | Hometown tax donation system (Furusato Nozei), Brand power of reciprocal gifts, Transportation costs |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:294 |
| By: | Nick Graetz; Adam Chapnik; Danielle H. Sandler; Sonya R. Porter |
| Abstract: | Amidst rising and increasingly unaffordable rents, 7.6 million people are threatened with eviction each year across the United States—and eviction rates are twice as high for renters with children. One important and neglected population who may experience unique levels of housing insecurity is college students, especially given that one in five college students are parents. In this study, we link 11.9 million student records to eviction filings from housing courts, demographic characteristics reported in decennial census and survey data, incomes reported on tax returns by students and their parents, and dates of birth and death from the Social Security Administration. Parenting students are more likely than non-parenting students to identify as female (62.81% vs. 55.94%) and Black (19.66% vs. 14.30%), be over 30 years old (42.73% vs. 20.25%), and have parents with lower household incomes ($100, 000 vs. $140, 000). Parenting students threatened with eviction (i.e., had an eviction filed against them) are much more likely than non-threatened parenting students to identify as female (81.18% vs. 62.81%) and Black (56.84% vs. 19.66%). In models adjusted for individual and institutional characteristics, we find that being threatened with an eviction was significantly associated with reduced likelihood of degree completion, reduced post-enrollment income, reduced likelihood of being married post-enrollment, and increased post-enrollment mortality. Among parenting students, 38.38% (95% confidence interval (CI): 32.50-44.26%) of non-threatened students completed a bachelor's degree compared to just 15.36% (CI: 11.61-19.11%) of students threatened with eviction. Our findings highlight the long-term economic and health impacts of housing insecurity during college, especially for parenting students. Housing stability for parenting students may have substantial multigenerational benefits for economic mobility and population health. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-35 |
| By: | Patrick Bayer (Duke University); Kerwin Kofi Charles (Yale University); Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | In this chapter, we introduce a new framework for studying the evolution of racial inequality in the labor market. The framework encompasses two broad forces – distributional and positional – that affect labor market gaps by racial and ethnic identity over time. We provide long-run results on the evolution of Black-White earnings gaps, including new results for Black and White women, and we review the evidence on historical factors affecting racial gaps. We then provide new results on racial gaps among other groups in the U.S. and discuss the evidence on racial gaps outside the U.S. We then discuss the role of prejudice-based discrimination in driving racial gaps, particularly in the post-civil-rights era, a period when such discrimination has been thought to play a declining role in racial inequality. We describe forces that can amplify existing discrimination, such as monopsony and workers’ perceptions of prejudice in the economy, and we discuss recent literature directly measuring discrimination through expanded audit studies and quasi-experimental variation. We conclude with a discussion of existing and new frontiers on race in the labor market, including stratification, reformulations of prejudice, and understanding the way race has shaped purportedly race-neutral institutions throughout the economy. |
| Keywords: | Race, labor markets, inequality |
| JEL: | J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:343 |
| By: | Jack Keane; Dennis Guignet |
| Abstract: | About 15% of the United States population (43 million people) rely on private wells for their primary source of potable water, and yet (in contrast to public water systems), no routine contaminant monitoring and water treatment is required. Water testing can be expensive, and the need for routine testing may often be unknown to residents, thus allowing potentially harmful water contaminants to go undetected. As such, estimates of the potential effects on households are needed to inform policies and programs to maintain safe potable groundwater wells. We attempt to help fill this gap by estimating hedonic property value models of homes in the Orlando, Florida Metropolitan Statistical Area. We link home transactions to home-specific private well tests conducted by the Florida Department of Health. We find that homes with groundwater well contamination experience a roughly 7% decline in value, and that this decrement persists for many years. Key Words: contamination; drinking water; groundwater; hedonic; housing; private well |
| JEL: | D6 Q51 Q53 R2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:25-05 |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha Trong; Mitrou, Francis |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal, nationally representative data from Australia, this study uncovers a previously undocumented pattern: in over half of cases where one household member reports weather-related home damage, their co-resident does not. This high rate of intra-household inconsistency is striking, particularly given that respondents are asked the same question within a similar timeframe, and that prior research has generally treated self-reported damage as exogenous to individual behaviour. Household fixed-effects models indicate that a range of factors, including individual health, life satisfaction, local socio-economic conditions, and cyclone exposure, are systematically associated with both the likelihood of reporting damage and intra-household inconsistencies. Individuals in better health, with higher life satisfaction, or residing in more advantaged areas are less likely to report damage-whether consistently or inconsistently-relative to their household member. Furthermore, replacing self-reported damage with a more objective measure substantially attenuates the observed associations between damage and individual health and life satisfaction. Taken together, these findings challenge the common assumption of exogeneity in self-reported weather-related home damage and underscore the risk of biased inference if endogeneity is not adequately addressed. |
| Keywords: | Measurement Errors, Survey Misreporting, Natural Disasters, Cyclones, Housing |
| JEL: | C18 Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1624 |
| By: | Eva Davoine (UC Berkeley); Joseph Enguehard (ENS de Lyon & University of Bologna); Igor Kolesnikov (UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We examine the political costs of taxation in early modern France. We focus on efforts to enforce the salt tax, the rate of which varied across regions. Using a spatial difference-in-discontinuities design, we compare municipalities just inside the high-tax region with those just outside, before and after a reform aimed at curbing illicit salt smuggling. We find that tax enforcement led to a twenty-fold increase in conflicts between taxpayers and the state in municipalities in the high-tax region. This effect persists until the French Revolution, supporting the view that enforcing the salt tax incurred significant political costs. Finally, we document that the likelihood of conflict increases with tax differences between neighboring regions, which we use to derive an upper bound on the political costs of increased tax enforcement in this historical period. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, Protest, Conflict |
| JEL: | D74 H26 H39 K42 N43 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:wpaper:027 |
| By: | Wiatt, Renee D. |
| Abstract: | Small businesses are critical to their rural communities. Often serving as a meeting place and social hub for local citizens, small businesses in rural areas deliver more than just goods and services. This article explores the trends for rural businesses in the North Central Region (NCR) by examining the owner and small business demographics using the NCR-Stat: Small Business Survey. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025–07–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ncrcrd:359223 |