|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Katharina Drescher |
| Abstract: | I study the impact of school social workers on youth crime and education. As a political reaction to a school rampage, a large German state introduced funding for school social workers, resulting in a strong increase in their numbers. Using the spatial and temporal variation in its implementation and unique administrative crime data, I find that school social workers reduce youth crime by 17% per year, lower victimization from violent crimes, and help uncover sexual offenses. They also improve educational outcomes by reducing grade retention. The results emphasize the crucial role of school personnel beyond teachers in shaping youth development. |
| Keywords: | School Social Work, Education, Crime, Victimization, Youth |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J13 K42 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:246_drescher.rdf |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a critical review and synthesis of the literature on the relationship between urban agglomeration, density, and regional prosperity. Agglomeration and density have long been portrayed as the core drivers of urban and regional success. Yet the evidence remains stubbornly inconclusive: some large cities flourish while others stagnate, and many smaller cities quietly outperform their sprawling counterparts. If density were destiny, the world’s largest cities would consistently lead in wealth and opportunity. However, they frequently do not. The paper argues that genuine sources of growth lie instead in institutional quality, the resilience of local ecosystems, and the strength of inter-territorial linkages. Conventional models have mostly dwelt on a narrow set of negative externalities —congestion, high rents, pollution— while overlooking deeper structural costs: territorial inequalities that erode trust, trigger discontent, and consign whole cities and regions to prolonged decline. As political and social fractures within countries widen, it is increasingly evident that prosperity hinges not on agglomeration itself but on the conditions of cities and their relationships with their hinterlands. The way forward requires a shift in policy and analysis towards place-sensitive strategies and robust institutions capable of promoting inclusive prosperity across all cities and regions, rather than privileging a select few. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economies; urban density; territorial inequality; institutions; regional development; geography of discontent; ecosystems; place-based policies; Agglomeration economies |
| JEL: | R11 R12 O18 P25 |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130618 |
| By: | Francisco Amaral; Mark Toth; Jonas Zdrzalek |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between location, liquidity, and prices in housing markets. We construct spatial datasets for German and U.S. cities and show that liquidity and prices decline with distance to the city center. To rationalize these patterns, we develop a spatial model of housing search. Location preferences concentrate buyers in central areas, generating tighter markets that are more liquid and command higher prices. Counterfactuals show that increasing search efficiency raises welfare and prices, especially in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of demand-side preferences and market tightness for understanding liquidity and asset prices |
| Keywords: | housing liquidity, housing prices, cities, spatial equilibrium, housing demand, asset pricing. |
| JEL: | G12 G51 R21 R30 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_727 |
| By: | Jos\'e M. Gaspar; Minoru Osawa |
| Abstract: | We develop a Schumpeterian quality-ladder spatial model in which innovation arrivals depend on regional knowledge spillovers. A parsimonious reduced-form diffusion mechanism induces the convergence of regions' average distance to the global frontier quality. As a result, regional differences in knowledge levels stem residually from asymmetries in the spatial distribution of researchers and firms. We analytically characterize the processes of innovation and knowledge diffusion. We then explore how the weight of intra-relative to inter-regional knowledge spillovers interacts with freer trade to shape the spatial distribution of economic activities. If intra-regional spillovers are relatively stronger, a higher economic integration leads to progressive agglomeration. If inter-regional spillovers dominate, researchers and firms may re-disperse after an initial phase of agglomeration as integration increases. This happens because firms and researchers have incentives to relocate to the smaller region, where they can leverage the concentrated knowledge base of the larger region while avoiding congestion in innovation. The smoothness of the dispersion process depends on the particular weight of intra-regional spillovers. If inter-regional spillovers become stronger as trade becomes freer, then the latter induces a monotone dispersion process. When integration is high enough, stable long-run equilibria always maximize the growth rate of the global frontier quality and the average distance to the frontier, irrespective of whether spillovers are mainly local or global. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.06402 |
| By: | Richard Yun |
| Abstract: | Homelessness in American cities is becoming an ever more prominent issue, but its causes remain contested, ranging from mental health and substance abuse to housing affordability and local labor markets. To shed light on this issue, I construct a novel MSA-level national panel of homelessness counts using data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Using a long-differencing regression specification with the changes in rent entered in piecewise linear form, I find that rent increases predict large increases in homelessness rates, but decreases have little to no effect. The same conclusions are reached when I use a quasi-differencing moment condition, assuming a multiplicative mean specification. Then, I propose a theoretical model of the low-end housing market that explains the asymmetry I find in the data. Finally, I outline an IV strategy that instruments rent changes with a Bartik instrument of predicted employment growth interacted with local housing-supply elasticities. My findings suggest that homelessness is a housing problem; however, because the response is sticky downward, effective policy must complement housing-market interventions with measures that address barriers faced by people experiencing homelessness. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.00914 |
| By: | Ziyang Chen (NJU - Nanjing University); Pierre-Philippe Combes (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Sylvie Démurger (CERGIC - Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon, ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Xiuyan Liu (Southeast University [Jiangsu]) |
| Abstract: | We document variations in real income for high-skilled, low-skilled, and rural migrant households across Chinese cities. Using comprehensive data on land parcel transactions along with individual data for land development and household expenditure, we construct a city-specific housing cost index and assess how it varies across locations. All three components of housing costs – unit land prices, land share in construction, and housing share in expenditure – decrease from city centres to the periphery, increase with city population, and decrease with city land area, as predicted by theory. Overall, housing costs in China are high and vary widely between locations. While income gains outweigh housing costs when moving from smaller to larger cities, in the largest cities, housing costs begin to dominate, particularly for low-skilled and rural migrant households. This suggests a bell-shaped relationship between real income and city population in China, aligning with theoretical predictions. |
| Keywords: | Housing costs Income disparities, Housing costs; Income disparities; Land use regulation; City size; Quality of life; Agglomeration economies; China |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05446372 |
| By: | Francisco Amaral (UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich, Swiss Finance Institute); Martin Dohmen (Universität Bonn = University of Bonn); Sebastian Kohl (MPIfG - Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Freie Universität Berlin = Free University of Berlin, John F. Kennedy Institute); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | This paper makes the first comprehensive attempt to study within‐country heterogeneity of housing returns. We introduce a new city‐level data set covering 15 OECD countries over 150 years and show that national housing markets are characterized by systematic spatial variation in housing returns. Total returns in large agglomerations are close to 100 basis points lower per year than in other parts of the same country. Excess returns outside the large cities can be rationalized as compensation for higher risk, especially higher covariance with income growth and lower liquidity. Real estate in diversified large agglomerations is comparatively safe. |
| Date: | 2025–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05448313 |
| By: | Tatiane Menezes (Departamento de Economia, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco); Carlos Roberto Azzoni (Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária da Universidade de São Paulo); Alexandre Almeida (Departamento de Economia, Administração e Sociologia da Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz da Universidade de São Paulo); Ana Luiza Barbosa (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of welfare in Brazilian cities and regions by introducing a Spatial Cost of Living Index (SCOL) that utilizes detailed household expenditure data at the within-city area level. By adjusting consumption-based welfare indicators for regional price differences, the study provides a more accurate depiction of poverty and inequality across urban landscapes. The findings reveal significant variations in living costs among Brazilian states, metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan cities, impacting poverty assessments. The analysis underscores the limitations of relying solely on nominal income or expenditure figures, as incorporating spatial price variations alters poverty headcount ratios and reshapes the understanding of regional disparities. Ignoring cost of living differences puts 8.3 million individuals living in the capital cities and surrounding metropolitan areas above the adjusted poverty line; conversely, 4.5 million individuals living in the non-metropolitan cities are wrongly classified as being below the adjusted poverty line. Sensitivity tests confirm the robustness of SCOL-adjusted estimates across various poverty thresholds. |
| Keywords: | Welfare, Consumption Expenditure, Spatial Cost of Living Index, Urban Centers |
| JEL: | R13 R20 R29 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:022036 |
| By: | Alessandro Sovera (Tampere University and FIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of mandatory inter-municipal cooperation on local welfare, using housing markets as the primary indicator. I study Italy’s 2010 reform, which required small municipalities to jointly manage core administrative functions, and identify its impact through a fuzzy difference-in-discontinuity design. Among municipalities whose cooperation status changed because of the mandate, residential property values fell by 4–6 percent and commercial values by 11–18 percent. These declines stem from deterioration in childcare, policing, street lighting, and waste collection rather than from changes in taxation or housing supply, both of which remain stable. The mandate also reduced population growth and net migration, consistent with residents responding to lower service quality. Compliance was limited — about 29 percent of eligible municipalities participated — and concentrated among those with greater administrative capacity. The results show that mandatory cooperation can erode local amenities and capitalized wealth, suggesting that policymakers should be cautious with uniform consolidation mandates and consider voluntary or capacity-building approaches instead. |
| Keywords: | Inter-municipal cooperation, Housing markets, Local public services, Administrative capacity, Local welfare and amenities |
| JEL: | H70 H71 H72 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fit:wpaper:40 |
| By: | Adler, Brian; Brown, Anne |
| Abstract: | Housing markets are more complex than a simple supply-demand relationship. Prices are set by complex market and spatial neighborhood dynamics. Certain cities like St. Louis, MO have experienced dramatic population decline marked by extreme vacancy and abandonment. Amidst its population decline, St. Louis simultaneously demonstrates neighborhoods with sharp housing shortages and competition alongside others with entrenched vacancy and disinvestment mere blocks away from one another. We use supervised machine learning models to predict housing prices with a diverse feature set that incorporates spatial aspects of vacancy among other traditional housing amenities in St. Louis. Our results show how proximity to vacancy may impact a home’s value even more than its number of bedrooms. These findings, we expect, may prompt policymakers to combat vacancy even more urgently to maintain neighborhood market stability. |
| Date: | 2026–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s9v4u_v1 |
| By: | Oguzhan Cepni; Ismail Genc; Lokman Gunduz; Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset of house prices and a difference-in-differences methodology, we find that households in Istanbul reassessed the risks associated with earthquakes following the Kahramanmaraþ Earthquake Sequence on February 6, 2023. The increase in both housing prices and rental rates was relatively subdued in Istanbul neighborhoods with high earthquake risk compared to those in low-risk areas. Furthermore, houses built before the Turkish Earthquake Code of 2007 are heavily discounted in high-risk areas relative to those constructed afterward. Finally, the earthquake risk premium observed in house prices in low-risk areas was smaller in percentage terms for more expensive neighborhoods. These findings have important policy implications for the implementation of earthquake-resistant measures in Turkiye. |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-differences, Kahramanmaraþ earthquake, Earthquake risk premium, House prices |
| JEL: | D80 Q54 R21 R30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2517 |
| By: | Palak Suri; Maureen L. Cropper |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of the first metro rail line in Mumbai using administrative data on assessed property prices from 2011-18 for 723 subzones in the city. Comparing areas within 1 km of the metro with those beyond 1 km but within 3 km, we estimate the effects on property values for commercial, industrial, and residential properties. We find a significant and persistent increase in prices of 6-8% for residential and commercial land use categories in treated areas relative to control areas after Metro Line 1 opens. We show that commute time savings and improvements in employment accessibility are plausible mechanisms underlying these effects. |
| JEL: | O18 R1 R3 R4 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34650 |
| By: | Zoltan Elekes; Gergo Toth; Rikard Eriksson; Dieter Kogler |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how labour market segmentation shapes inter-occupational labour flows and the related diversification of regions, contributing new evidence to the evolutionary economic geography (EEG) literature. Using Swedish matched employer- employee data (2002-2012), we construct segment-specific occupation networks by sex, education, and country of origin to uncover heterogeneity in revealed skill-relatedness. Applying a novel measure based on normalized mutual information, we compare the structural similarity of these networks and demonstrate that while occupations may appear related on average, the underlying connections are often segment-specific. Regional diversification processes may therefore unevenly align with the redeployment potential of different worker groups. This unevenness implies that policies promoting related diversification, central to frameworks such as Smart Specialisation, may inadvertently reproduce labour market segmentation by privileging capabilities concentrated in certain groups (e.g., men, Nordic-born, or medium-educated workers). Conceptually, the paper advances the EEG agenda by integrating network science with labour segmentation theory, revealing that relatedness is not uniform but socially embedded. Regarding policy, it calls for diversification strategies that explicitly assess (i) how local skill-related activities are distributed across worker segments and (ii) whether new specialisations reinforce or mitigate local segmentation. Doing so would allow regional innovation and industrial policies to better balance efficiency and inclusiveness. This is particularly relevant in the context of “just†and “green†transitions, where aligning emerging activities with the capabilities of diverse local workforces is critical to ensuring broad-based opportunity creation rather than deepening existing divides |
| Keywords: | inter-occupation labour flows; skill-relatedness; labour market segments; regional diversification |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2601 |
| By: | Batista Filipe (European Commission - JRC); Curtale Riccardo (European Commission - JRC); Ribeiro Barranco Ricardo; Marconi Mattia; Tucci Michele (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates place-based determinants of housing prices across the EU, looking at factors such as housing supply constraints, demographic trends, short-term rentals (STRs), accessibility, household income, geographical advantages, and other factors at municipal scale resolution. Key findings indicate that higher prices correlate with supply and demand imbalances (high demand driven by socioeconomic dynamics an limited supply elasticity). STRs, particularly in urban areas, have association with elevated sales prices, but the data does not allow to establish causality. STRs constitute only 1.2% of EU dwellings and are unlikely to generate widespread impact on the housing sector. The analysis reveals a nearly 20% stock of housing in 2021 which are not used as primary residence (either complete vacant or used ocasionally or seasonally), exacerbating supply shortages especially in areas in high demand for housing. Policy recommendations emphasize addressing structural barriers to housing supply, improving data on vacant properties, and a high subsidiarity in the management of STR, to better balance benefits and risks. The study supports the EU’s housing affordability agenda. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc145033 |
| By: | Silke Anger; Bernhard Christoph; Agata Galkiewicz; Shushanik Margaryan; Malte Sandner; Thomas Siedler |
| Abstract: | Tutoring programs for low-performing students, delivered in-person or online, effectively enhance school performance, yet their medium- and longer-term impacts on labor market outcomes remain less understood. To address this gap, we conduct a randomized controlled trial with 839 secondary school students in Germany to examine the effects of an online tutoring program for low-performing students on academic performance and school-to-work transitions. The online tutoring program had a non significant intention to-treat effect of 0.06 standard deviations on math grades six months after program start. However, among students who had not received other tutoring services prior to the intervention, the program significantly improved math grades by 0.14 standard deviations. Moreover, students in non-academic school tracks experienced smoother school-to-work transitions, with vocational training take-up 18 months later being 5 percentage points higher—an effect that was even larger (12 percentage points) among those without prior tutoring. Overall, the results indicate that tutoring can generate lasting benefits for low-performing students that extend beyond school performance. |
| Keywords: | online tutoring, randomized controlled trial, disadvantaged youth, school grades, school-to-work transition |
| JEL: | C93 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0084 |
| By: | Blanco-Arroyo, Omar (Universidad de Valencia, Spain); Esteve, Vicente (Universidad de Valencia, Spain); Prats, María A. (Universidad de Murcia, Spain and European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the co-explosivity between Spain's nominal house price index and the housing credit-to-GDP ratio over the period 1971-2024, with particular emphasis on the housing bubble years from 1998 to 2008. Applying the framework proposed by Chen et al. (2017), the analysis reveals an asymmetric relationship: house prices exhibit a stronger sensitivity to credit expansion than credit does to price increases, underscoring the disproportionate ifluence of credit on housing market dynamics. During the 1998-2008 bubble phase, the relationship becomes more symmetric, suggesting a feedback loop in which relaxed lending standards fueled housing demand, while rising prices reinforced further credit growth. This period is characterized by tighter coupling between the two variables, stronger co-movement, and faster correction dynamics indicative of speculative lending behavior. The findings highlight the importance of monitoring credit conditions to better understand and manage housing market volatility. |
| Keywords: | Housing market; house prices; Housing credit; Explosive behavior; Co-explosivity; Co-moving systems |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E44 E51 E51 G21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2601 |
| By: | Antonio Cabrales; Esther Hauk |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model to understand the conditions under which groups within a society choose between a collaborative and an individualist approach to education. A key feature of the model is the presence of externalities, which can lead to multiple equilibria. This framework helps explain the persistence of diverse local educational cultures, even within relatively homogeneous countries. These features yield important and subtle insights for public policy. Policymakers may need to focus either on shifting beliefs or enhancing the abilities of parents and teachers. We also analyze the incentives driving segregation in education and explore potential policy responses. |
| Keywords: | collaborative learning, Coordination, education policy, Externalities, local interaction, multiple equilibria, parental educational styles, peer effects, school choice, segregation |
| JEL: | I21 D62 C72 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1546 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Hans R.A. Koster; Tu Giang Vu |
| Abstract: | Property transaction prices are widely regarded as the best measure of property value, but are sometimes unavailable. Using data from the Netherlands and New York, we analyze whether list prices and assessed values are reliable substitutes. In the cross-section, both proxies strongly predict sales prices, and estimated hedonic implicit prices resemble those based on sales prices. Over time, there is a sluggish adjustment in both proxies, but much more so in assessed values—particularly when they are based on rental incomes. While assessed values are well-suited for cross-sectional hedonic modelling or the quantification of static quantitative spatial models, list prices are better suited for the estimation of hedonic implicit prices from variation over time, although some attenuation bias should be expected. |
| Keywords: | assessed values, list prices, sales prices, transaction prices, hedonic pricing, historic amenities, wind turbines, solar farms, transit accessibility |
| JEL: | R31 C21 C23 |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0083 |
| By: | Edward L Glaeser (Harvard University and NBER); Martina Kirchberger (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Andrii Parkhomenko (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the rebuilding of Ukrainian cities. We start by outlining key facts about Ukraine and its cities: (i) the country's population is declining; (ii) there is a shift in demand for housing from east to west; (iii) Kyiv's advantage is growing; (iv) house prices are rising in Kyiv and western cities, (v) Ukraine's cities are slow and congested. We then present a theoretical framework for maximizing the benefits of Ukraine's rebuilding effort to highlight the welfare effects of different allocations of post-war infrastructure. Finally, we consider the cost curve for reconstruction, as determined, in particular, by the cost of materials, labor, the industrial organization of the building industry and public practices in procurement and regulation. We highlight three broad strategies for shifting the cost curve: openness, standardization and investing‐in‐investing. We conclude by outlining areas for future research. |
| Keywords: | reconstruction; security; procurement; economic geography |
| JEL: | F51 H54 O40 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0226 |
| By: | Yang, Chengji; Guo, Hongdong |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the economic impact of Agricultural Regional Public Brands (ARPBs) using panel data from 2, 725 Chinese counties (2000- 2020). A difference-in-differences (DID) approach with fixed effects identifies the causal impact of ARPB adoption. Results show that ARPBs significantly enhance county-level GDP, especially in livestock-oriented regions with stronger industrial linkages. Mechanism analyses reveal that ARPBs promote economic growth by upgrading employment structures, facilitating urban-rural integration, and encouraging agricultural modernization. Regional heterogeneity suggests that eastern and central regions benefit more than western ones, likely due to infrastructure and market access differences. The effects of reducing the urban-rural income gap are limited. These findings provide policy-relevant insights into how place-based branding can promote inclusive rural development. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360602 |
| By: | Lawson, Julie; Davies, Liam; Hayward, David; Troy, Laurence; Werner, Greta; Dodson, Jago |
| Abstract: | This research examined Australia’s multi-provider social housing system and analysed changes over time to social housing delivery. The system includes public housing, managed by state and territory government agencies; community housing, managed by not-for-profit providers; and some housing provided through the NDIS and National Rental Affordability Scheme. There has been minimal growth in social housing stock in Australia over the past three decades. This has led to a reduction in the share of the total dwelling stock and annual new dwelling supply. To date, programs to boost social housing have been sporadic and often customised and complex. Australia lacks long-term, sustainable social housing growth models. This research offers policymakers options to reverse the decline. |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e6pyf_v1 |
| By: | Hankinson, Michael; Magazinnik, Asya; Sands, Melissa |
| Abstract: | While scholars have documented feedback effects among a policy's direct winners and losers, less is known about whether such effects can occur among the indirectly affected—“the policy adjacent.” Using 458 geocoded housing developments built between two nearly identical statewide ballot propositions funding affordable housing in California, we show that policy generates feedback effects among neighboring residents in systematic ways. New, nearby affordable housing causes majority‐homeowner blocks to increase their support for the housing bond, while majority‐renter blocks decrease or do not change their support. We attribute the positive effect among majority‐homeowner blocks to the housing's replacement of blight. In contrast, the lack of a positive effect among majority‐renter blocks may be driven by the threat of gentrification. Policy implementation can win support for expansion among unexpected beneficiaries, while failing to do so even among the policy's presumed allies. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–01–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129685 |
| By: | Philipp Poyntner; Sofie R. Waltl |
| Abstract: | We study how the general public perceives the link between monetary policy and housing markets. Using a large-scale, cross-country survey experiment in Austria, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, we examine households' understanding of monetary policy, their beliefs about its impact on house prices, and how these beliefs respond to expert information. We find that while most respondents grasp the basic mechanisms of conventional monetary policy and recognize the connection between interest rates and house prices, literacy regarding unconventional monetary policy is very low. Beliefs about the monetary policy-housing nexus are malleable and respond to information, particularly when it is provided by academic economists rather than central bankers. Monetary policy literacy is strongly related to education, gender, age, and experience in housing and mortgage markets. Our results highlight the central role of housing in how households interpret monetary policy and point to the importance of credible and inclusive communication strategies for effective policy transmission. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.08957 |
| By: | David Sturrock (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:26/02 |
| By: | Buchholz, Maximilian; Kemeny, Tom; Randolph, Gregory F.; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | A popular view holds that declining housing affordability stems from regulations that restrict new supply, and that deregulation will spur sufficient market-rate construction to meaningfully improve affordability. We argue that this ‘deregulationist’ view rests upon flawed assumptions. Through empirical simulation, we show that even a dramatic, deregulation-driven supply expansion would take decades to generate widespread affordability in high-cost U.S. markets. We advance an alternative explanation of declining affordability grounded in demand structure and geography: uneven demand growth – driven by rising interpersonal and interregional inequality – is the primary driver of declining affordability in recent decades. For cost-burdened households, trickle-down benefits from deregulation will be insufficient and too slow. |
| Keywords: | housing; affordability; zoning; inequality; cities |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:131070 |
| By: | Sebastian Kripfganz; Vasilis Sarafidis |
| Abstract: | We study the drivers and spatial diffusion of U.S. state population growth using a dynamic spatial model for 49 states, 1965-2017. Methodologically, we recover the spatial network structure from the data, rather than imposing it a priori via contiguity or distance, and combine this with an IV estimator that permits heterogeneous slopes and interactive fixed effects. This unified design delivers consistent estimation and inference in a flexible spatial panel model with endogenous regressors, a data-inferred network structure, and pervasive cross-state dependence. To our knowledge, it is the first estimation framework in spatial econometrics to combine all three elements within a single setting. Empirically, population growth exhibits broad yet heterogeneous conditional convergence: about three-quarters of states converge, while a small high-growth group mildly diverges. Effects of the core drivers, amenities, labour income, migration frictions, are stable across various network specifications. On the other hand, the productivity effect emerges only when the network is estimated from the data. Spatial spillovers are sizable, with indirect effects roughly one-third of total impacts, and diffusion extending beyond contiguous neighbours. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.10444 |
| By: | Kathryn Loesch |
| Abstract: | As of Sept. 30, U.S. banks have reversed a nine-quarter decline in unfunded commercial real estate commitments with a second consecutive quarter of growth. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; unfunded commitments; credit exposure |
| Date: | 2026–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:102325 |
| By: | Balouktsi Despoina (European Commission - JRC); Joossens Elisabeth (European Commission - JRC); Le Blanc Julia (European Commission - JRC); Pagano Andrea (European Commission - JRC); Zeugner Stefan |
| Abstract: | Housing demand varies considerably between Member States and regions, reflecting diverse demographic and market conditions. In one third of all NUTS 3 regions construction did not manage to keep up with expanding demographic trends. Metropolitan areas have experienced strong household growth, partly due to smaller average household sizes. In contrast, many rural regions face lower demand or even an oversupply of housing. Based on ECFIN-JRC mapadomo data and population projections, a bottom-up approach is applied to estimate housing needs and the housing construction gap at granular, NUTS 3 level. Findings indicate that housing supply should expand significantly to keep pace with projected household numbers. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc144703 |
| By: | Paulo M.M. Rodrigues; Dhruv Akshay Pandit; João Seixo |
| Abstract: | Weather extremes play an important role in shaping short-run economic activity, yet the literature offers little evidence on how weather shocks translate into household spending. This study examines the short-term economic impacts of temperature, wildfire risk, and a novel measure of rainfall volatility on point-of sales purchases, unemployment, and housing prices using a panel of Portuguese municipalities from 2010 to 2021. A panel vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables including cross-border spillovers from similar climate regimes using climate factors as controls is used. Panel local projections show that a one-standard-deviation increase in hourly rainfall volatility raises purchases and house-price growth, and lowers unemployment. Increases in mean temperature boost spending, whereas temperature variability dampens it, and wildfire risk reduces consumption. Introducing disposable income, non-linear terms, longer lags, or event-count weather indicators leaves these elasticities virtually unchanged. Regional analyses reveal that responses in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area and Algarve (southern Portugal) are not only larger but sometimes opposite in direction compared to those in northern Portugal. To the best of our knowledge, the findings provide the first evidence of weather-induced fluctuations in purchases within an European setting, offering guidance for adaptation policies and risk management. |
| JEL: | C33 C53 E31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202519 |
| By: | Marco Schmandt; Constantin Tielkes; Felix Weinhardt |
| Abstract: | Many studies exploit the random placement of individuals into groups such as schools or regions to estimate the effects of group-level variables on these individuals. Assuming a simple data generating process, we show that the typical estimate contains three components: the causal effect of interest, “multiple-treatment bias” (MTB), and “mobility bias” (MB). The extent of these biases depends on the interrelations of group-level variables and onward mobility. We develop a checklist that can be used to assess the relevance of the biases based on observable quantities. We apply this framework to novel administrative data on randomly placed refugees in Germany and confirm empirically that MTB and MB cannot be ignored. The biases can even switch the signs of estimates of popular group-level variables, despite random placement. We discuss implications for the literature and alternative “ideal experiments". |
| Keywords: | random placement, group assignment, peer effects, refugee integration, random dispersal policy |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0085 |
| By: | Aleksandra Kislenok (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Centre») |
| Abstract: | The development of any territorial system is the resulting dynamics of its components – in the case of a regions of the Russian Federation – its constituent municipalities. It is at this level that economic agents and residents directly come into contact with the results of state policy to create favorable conditions for doing business and comfortable living. Comparative studies of socio-economic dynamics on a municipal region make it possible to identify territories with similar development characteristics, which forms a rationale for the implementation of targeted regional policy measures in relation to specific groups of territories. The article proposes a methodology for comparative assessment of the level of development of municipalities, based on integral assessments of the achieved level of economic development, economic dynamics and living conditions in the territory. An approach has been developed to group municipalities depending on the integrated estimates obtained in these areas. Length: 12 pages |
| Keywords: | system of indicators, socio-economic development, municipalities, living conditions |
| JEL: | O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-25-1 |
| By: | Natee Amornsiripanitch; Philip E. Strahan; Song Zhang |
| Abstract: | Older home sellers receive lower returns than younger home sellers. Homes sold by older people have fewer major renovations but higher rates of poor upkeep. Older sellers are also more likely to sell off-MLS (“pocket listings”) and to sell to investors, leading to lower prices. These patterns suggest that older sellers may be disproportionately disadvantaged by agents’ incentive to maximize fees through generating high sales volume instead of maximizing sale prices. Age-related cognitive decline makes the elderly more vulnerable. For causal evidence, we show that reforms making pocket listings more transparent reduced both the prevalence of pocket listings and the magnitude of the age gap in returns. |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34656 |
| By: | Martha Bailey; Paul Mohnen; A.R. Shariq Mohammed |
| Abstract: | We construct two new large-scale datasets to measure relative and upward educational mobility by sex, race, class, and childhood county of residence for cohorts born in 1910–1919 and 1982–1997. We show that both relative and upward educational mobility rose over the 20th century, with historically disadvantaged groups experiencing the largest gains. We also document substantial geographic convergence over the 20th century: both within and across regions, where children live matters much less for their educational mobility today than it did at midcentury. Using a state-border design, we show that greater public investments in primary and secondary education were an important driver of upward educational mobility in the early and late 20th century, but public investments in postsecondary education emerged as a similarly important determinant in the late 20th century. |
| Keywords: | education; inequality; intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J62 I24 I28 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:102338 |
| By: | Hector Galindo-Silva; Paula Paula Herrera-Idarraga |
| Abstract: | How do religious identities change? We study the effects of civic education reforms on religious identification using Colombia's 1991 Constitution, which dismantled the country's confessional regime and mandated constitutional instruction in high schools. Exploiting cohort-based variation in exposure to the reform and nationally representative survey data, we implement a difference-in-differences design. We find that exposure to the constitutional curriculum reduced Catholic self-identification by about three percentage points. This decline reflects a reallocation of religious identities rather than a generalized decline in religiosity. In regions where Catholic institutional presence was historically weaker, Catholic losses translate into switching toward non-Catholic Christian denominations and higher religious attendance. In contrast, in regions where Catholic dominance was stronger, the decline is associated with increased secular identification and lower attendance. These patterns hold across ethnic and non-ethnic groups and are shaped primarily by regional religious supply rather than ethnicity per se. Overall, the results show that civic education can reconfigure religious identities by reshaping the relative legitimacy of competing affiliations. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.09561 |
| By: | Ou, Yunbei; Bailey, Nick (University of Glasgow); McArthur, David Philip; Zhao, Qunshan |
| Abstract: | An extensive literature shows a positive relationship between housing energy efficiency and house prices. However, the methodological issue of omitted variable bias (OVB) has weakened claims of a causal effect. It is also unclear whether any willingness-to-pay (WTP) for housing energy efficiency reflects a concern with energy costs or a more symbolic ‘green’ consumption. The recent exogenous shock of the global ‘energy crisis’ in 2022 offers a novel opportunity to examine both. If WTP changes significantly after the energy crisis, it effectively removes OVB issues and strengthens causal interpretations. It could also indicate that WTP for energy efficiency is driven (at least in part) by energy cost savings. Using over 170, 000 listings for second-hand house sales in Greater Manchester, UK (2017-24), we model WTP for energy efficiency before and after the dramatic rise in energy prices using multilevel hedonic regressions. We find that WTP for more energy efficient homes increased after the energy crisis, largely because the ‘brown discount’ (penalty) for more inefficient homes increased. These results confirm the causal interpretation of the relationship between house prices and energy efficiency and indicate that consumers are motivated at least in part by energy cost savings. These findings suggest that policymakers could promote housing energy efficiency by focussing on financial benefits in policy design and advertisements, as well as support financially vulnerable households to ensure an equal sustainable housing transition process. |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:m5d7n_v2 |
| By: | Anna Bindler; Randi Hjalmarsson; Stephen Machin; Melissa Rubio-Ramos |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how and why anti-Irish sentiment in 19th century England spills over onto jury decisions at London’s Old Bailey Central Criminal Court. We classify the (perceived) ethnicity of courtroom participants according to whether they have distinctly Irish or English surnames based on place of birth in the 1881 census. Irish-named defendants have significantly worse outcomes: juries are 3% more likely to convict Irish-named defendants and 16% less likely to recommend mercy in sentencing. Sentencing gaps are larger for violent crimes and robust to different classifications of surname Irishness, as well as to the inclusion of case and defendant controls. We argue that these findings are unlikely to be driven by correlated unobservable case or trial characteristics (like defense quality). Rather, we provide two pieces of evidence consistent with the gaps being driven by animus towards those perceived to be Irish. First, taking advantage of exogenous variation in expected punishment driven by the abolition of capital punishment, we show that juries react differentially to shifts in extraneous factors when the defendant is Irish- versus English-named. Second, these gaps are not limited to Irish- named defendants but also seen for other courtroom participants – namely Irish-named victims. Finally, we trace out the longer run evolution of these gaps throughout the 1800s: they first emerge during the capital punishment reform period, widen during the mid-century Irish Potato Famine induced migration to London, and thereafter remain primarily stable. |
| Keywords: | Irish, crime, criminal law, discrimination, economic history |
| JEL: | K42 K14 J15 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2152 |
| By: | Alina K Bartscher (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management); Moritz Kuhn (University of Mannheim = Universität Mannheim, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Ulrike I Steins |
| Abstract: | Using new household-level data, we study the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its distribution since 1950. Most of the debt were mortgages, which initially grew because more households borrowed. Yet after 1980, debt mostly grew because households borrowed more. We uncover home equity extraction, concentrated in the white middle class, as the largest cause, strongly affecting intergenerational inequality and life-cycle debt profiles. Remarkably, the additional debt did not lower households' net worth because of rising house prices. We conclude that asset-price-based borrowing became an integral part of households' consumption-saving decisions, yet at the cost of higher financial fragility. |
| Keywords: | Household debt, Home equity extraction, Inequality, Household portfolios, Financial fragility |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05448445 |
| By: | Ali Enami (The University of Akron); Kile Byington (Twinsburg Public Library); James Alm (Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | Do the sources of funding available to public agencies and shocks to these sources affect the performance of these agencies? Using data on Ohio public libraries, we exploit the sudden state budget cuts implemented in 2009 following the 2008 recession, along with the bureaucratic delay in approving new local property tax levies to make up for the lost state funding, in order to compare the performance of libraries that had access to property taxes prior to 2008 to those that relied exclusively on state funding. We find that libraries with diversified funding, and so with access to relatively stable property taxes, demonstrated higher service across a wide range of performance indicators in the first year of funding stabilization following the budget cuts relative to libraries without local funding. These effects decrease by about one-half to two-thirds by the fifth year, but they remain statistically significant at the 1 percent level. |
| Keywords: | Property tax, operating funding, funding stabilization, public library, library performance |
| JEL: | H41 H71 H76 L86 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2509 |
| By: | Gong, Binlei; Hu, Peinan; Jin, Songqing; Yuan, Lingran |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates how the weakening of restrictive government labor institutions influences labor reallocation by utilizing an unique institution change, which commonly referred as the 'Hukou reform' in China on internal migration and employment. We create a reform exposure variable by combining a 'link factor', which is the past migration patterns, and a 'pull factor', which is the Hukou reform in potential migration destinations, to capture the effects of Hukou reform across all provinces on an individual's labor decisions. We also classify the reform into different categories based on their relevance to rural residents' labor decisions. Our findings reveal that lower barriers to migration resulting from the Hukou reform significantly impact migration and job occupation. Notably, only the most relevant category of reform has significant effects. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361187 |
| By: | Howe, John |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:weprwp:259474 |
| By: | Bednarik, Zuzana |
| Abstract: | Rural communities face ongoing challenges related to population decline, labor shortages, and uneven economic opportunities. In recent years, self-employed in-migrants[1] have been viewed as a potential driver of rural revitalization. These individuals contribute to job creation, stimulate local markets, and strengthen rural–urban linkages. However, while their initial impact on rural economies has been well recognized, a critical question remains: do these in-migrants stay long enough for their entrepreneurial activities to generate lasting benefits? The sustainability of rural job creation depends not only on attracting in-migrants with an entrepreneurial path but also on understanding the factors that influence their decision to remain in rural areas over time. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ncrcrd:388969 |
| By: | Anna Alberini; Javier Bas; Cinzia Cirillo |
| Abstract: | We devise a difference-in-difference study design to assess the impact of fare-free bus service in Alexandria, located in the Washington, DC metro area. Our surveys show modest to no effect, with at most 6% more residents in Alexandria increasing their bus usage compared to control locations. We find no effect on ground-level ozone or road crashes, suggesting little to no impact on road traffic. One-third of respondents in control locations indicated they would use buses more frequently if fare-free service were available in their areas. Based on the respondent-reported reductions in car miles, the program led to a reduction of 0.294 to 0.494 tons of CO2 per year, or 5% to 9% of the average annual emissions from a US car, at a cost of $70-$120 per ton of CO2. We predict a CO2 reduction of 0.454 tons per year, equivalent to 8% of the average US car's annual emissions if the fare-free bus covered all of the study areas. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.02190 |
| By: | Delbridge, Victoria; Glaeser, Edward L.; Harman, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Urban waste management is both a practical necessity and a visible reflection of city governance. In low- and middle-income cities, uncollected refuse undermines health, productivity, and public confidence. It clogs drainage, fuels flooding, and contributes to respiratory disease through open burning. Solid waste management in developing cities already consumes one-fifth of municipal budgets on average, yet service delivery remains uneven and financially precarious. This toolkit synthesises global evidence and experience to guide policymakers in designing credible, affordable, and politically viable reforms. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130933 |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how Brexit reshaped the volume and composition of UK migration flows. To address the inherent endogeneity of migration responses to political change, the study employs a Difference-in-Differences design that benchmarks the United Kingdom against Germany, a stable EU member unaffected by Brexit-related institutional shocks. Treating the 2016 referendum and the 2021 end of free movement as sequential shocks, the results show that migration volume increased after both shocks, but through different channels: the referendum reduced emigration relative to Germany, while the post-2021 points-based system triggered a reallocation of inflows away from EU free-movement migrants toward non-EU migrants from the rest of the world, with a markedly stronger skill-selective profile. The paper analyzes how Brexit reshaped migration flows into and out of the United Kingdom by exploiting the 2016 referendum and the 2021 termination of free movement as sequential institutional shocks. Using a Difference-in-Differences design with Germany as a stable EU benchmark, the results show that Brexit acted as a structural regime shock, not a border-tightening event. Net migration into the UK rose after both shocks—first due to a sharp post-referendum decline in emigration relative to Germany, and later due to a substantial expansion of non-EU immigration under the new points-based system. Immigration patterns exhibit a clear regime shift, with EU inflows contracting sharply after 2016 and globally sourced, skill-selective inflows rising after 2021. In the later period, a modest but notable increase in UK-born emigration relative to Germany also emerges, reflecting frictions in post-Brexit mobility. Overall, Brexit reoriented—rather than reduced—UK migration flows, transforming both their scale and composition. |
| JEL: | F3 F65 P0 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34665 |
| By: | Diana Bonfim; Sujiao Zhao; Olivier De Jonghe |
| Abstract: | We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the pass-through of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs, and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Passthrough is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets. |
| JEL: | E52 G21 D14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202514 |
| By: | Rijal, Aakriti |
| Abstract: | Farmers’ markets offer access to fresh food, support for local producers, and opportunities to build community connections. Yet, participation remains disproportionately low among low-income and minority populations. While financial incentive programs address economic barriers, cultural factors such as mistrust, feelings of not being welcomed and weak community ties may equally constrain engagement. This study develops a framework that integrates both financial and cultural barriers to better understand farmers' market participation across racial and income groups. Using 2025 survey data from three Tennessee cities, we construct composite indices of barriers and analyze their effects on both actual attendance and stated likelihood of attending. Planned integration of spatial and market-level data will allow us to assess how individual experiences intersect with broader structural and relational conditions. Findings aim to inform the design of more inclusive, culturally responsive interventions to support equitable farmers’ market participation. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360884 |
| By: | Philip Oreopoulos; Oliver Keyes-Krysakowski; Deepak Agarwal |
| Abstract: | Computer-assisted learning (CAL) platforms frequently underperform at scale not because the technology is ineffective, but because schools face substantial implementation frictions: teachers and administrators must overcome initial technical hurdles, reorganize instructional routines, manage competing scheduling pressures, and do so while uncertain about the technology’s effectiveness—conditions that often lead to low and unproductive student engagement. This study explores whether strengthening implementation structure can raise both the quantity and quality of CAL usage in 83 residential government middle schools in Uttar Pradesh, India and, in turn, learning gains. All schools had access to Khan Academy, but randomly selected treatment schools received on-the-ground lab-in-charges whose sole responsibility was to ensure high-fidelity implementation by securing reliable connectivity, simplifying student rostering, protecting weekly practice time, supervising in-class use, coordinating content with teachers, and monitoring progress. The intervention increased platform usage from 7.2 to 47.4 minutes per week. Mathematics achievement rose by almost half a standard deviation over 31 weeks, with gains broad-based across achievement levels and question difficulty. These results show that the central constraint on effective and scalable CAL is not technology or content, but the presence of organizational structures that ensure sustained, productive instructional use. |
| JEL: | I2 I25 I3 O2 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34683 |
| By: | Paulo M.M. Rodrigues; Dhruv Akshay Pandit; Miguel de Castro Neto |
| Abstract: | While a growing body of research has examined the economic and social consequences of extreme weather, few attempts have been made to collate this evidence into a coherent map. This scoping review addresses this gap by providing the first systematic mapping of research on the socio-economic sensitivity of European regions to short-run weather shocks. Following a PRISMA-ScR protocol, we search Scopus and Web of Science, identifying 77 eligible articles published between 2000 and 2025. We analyse how studies define and measure weather shocks and socio-economic outcomes, the data and methods they employ, the sectors and regions they cover, as well as the associated impacts across sectors and the channels they operate through. Our review finds that weather shocks are consistently associated with reduced output growth, increased heat-related mortality, rising inflationary pressures, and greater inequality, with effects varying by region, sector, and income level. However, we also identify significant gaps in spatial resolution, sectoral coverage, and methodological diversity. By mapping the existing evidence and its limitations, this review provides a structured foundation for future research on weather-related socio-economic risk in Europe. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202527 |
| By: | Tang, Junxian; Zhang, Ruohao; Lei, Zhen; Wan, Xibo; Hu, Xianbiao |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361222 |
| By: | RODRIGUEZ, FRANCISCO; Bravo, Giancarlo |
| Abstract: | Bahar (2025) argues that there is a long-term cointegrating relationship between US job vacancies and Southwest border crossings. We show that his conclusion is based on a misspecified Engle–Granger test applied to first differences. Once the Engle Granger test is correctly applied to levels, evidence for a cointegrating relationship vanishes, invalidating the paper’s approach to estimating short- and long-run elasticities. Bahar’s approach is therefore uninformative about the relationship between US labor market conditions and migration. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Labor Markets, Cointegration |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127467 |
| By: | Centeno Clara (European Commission - JRC); Leiputė Beatričė; Langham Ella; Kampylis Panagiotis; Monge Roffarello Alberto; Hillman Velislava; Gausas Simonas; Svedkauskiene A. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the integration of well-being principles into digital education within the European Union, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive policies that prioritize Well-being in Digital Education (WBDE). The research highlights the critical need for balanced use of digital technologies, advocating for age-appropriate and purposeful integration to mitigate negative impacts on physical, psychological, and social well-being. Key considerations such as data privacy, safety, and accessibility as well as promoting positive social interactions are identified as essential design elements that support learner well-being. The persistent digital divide emerges as a significant barrier, with recommendations to address disparities in digital competences and access to technology. The study underscores the effectiveness of a whole-school approach combined with community involvement, fostering a shared responsibility among school leaders, educators, learners, parents, and the community. Collaboration among stakeholders, including policymakers and EdTech providers, is essential to develop strategies that integrate well-being principles into both school and home environments. This research suggests that through integrated policies, mindful technology use, and collaborative efforts, educational systems can create supportive, inclusive, and well-rounded digital learning environments. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc144412 |
| By: | Torbjorn Hanson; Ashild Johnsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Alberto Prati |
| Abstract: | We report the results from a large field experiment that tests if happiness spreads within an organizational setting, as predicted by the emotional contagion hypothesis. Although some studies have supported this hypothesis, no well-powered randomized controlled trial has ever tested it in the field. In collaboration with the Norwegian Armed Forces, we randomly assign over 1, 500 recruits to rooms during eight-week boot camps. Some recruits live with relatively happier peers while others live with relatively unhappier ones. We find no evidence of happiness convergence at the room level and reject even small contagion effects. We show that this result is not because happiness is overly stable and that peer effects do emerge for some attitudes in non-emotional domains. These results call for a reconsideration of the presumed ubiquity of happiness spillovers, with subsequent implications for well-being models and policies. |
| Keywords: | happiness, subjective wellbeing, emotional contagion, field experiment, RCT |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2144 |
| By: | Lin Chen; Yuya Sasaki |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the identification and estimation of heterogeneous effects of an endogenous treatment under interference and spillovers in a large single-network setting. We model endogenous treatment selection as an equilibrium outcome that explicitly accounts for spillovers and derive conditions guaranteeing the existence and uniqueness of this equilibrium. We then identify heterogeneous marginal exposure effects (MEEs), which may vary with both the treatment status of neighboring nodes and unobserved heterogeneity. We develop estimation strategies and establish their large-sample properties. Equipped with these tools, we analyze the heterogeneous effects of import competition on U.S. local labor markets in the presence of interference and spillovers. We find negative MEEs, consistent with the existing literature. However, these effects are amplified by spillovers in the presence of treated neighbors and among localities that tend to select into lower levels of import competition. These additional empirical findings are novel and would not be credibly obtainable without the econometric framework proposed in this paper. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.14515 |
| By: | Elhaj Mustafa Ali, Mohammed; Mahjoub Elsheikh, Manal; Sami Omar Mohamed, Marwa; Kamal Zakarea Abdullah, Mageda |
| Abstract: | This study investigates youth unemployment in Eastern Sudan using primary data from 385 respondents aged 15–24, alongside secondary data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), with particular focus on the repercussions of the April 15, 2023 war. The analysis indicates that the post-war unemployment reached 75.32%, with 83.1% of respondents experiencing long-term joblessness — a sharp rise from the pre-war rate of 24.66% recorded in the SLMPS. Major contributing factors include a 46.33% job loss rate, a 44.26% decline in employability, and a 26.56% shift toward informal work. The socioeconomic consequences are severe, encompassing educational disruptions (80.8%), housing loss (28.1%), food shortages (26.2%), health problems (22.9%), and psychological trauma (14.0%), all of which heighten vulnerability. Logistic regression results indicate that age, gender, and urban residency significantly influence unemployment, while internet access reduces the likelihood of joblessness by 14.0%. Resilience analysis reveals that 47.53% of youth exhibit no coping capacity, while only 27.01% demonstrate high resilience through entrepreneurial or multifaceted strategies. Urban residents and internally displaced persons display relatively stronger adaptive capacity—driven by access to networks, informal markets, and digital tools—whereas refugees and rural youth remain most fragile. Policy recommendations emphasize stimulating labor demand through local investment, expanding digital literacy, promoting gender-inclusive education, and integrating resilience-building interventions to foster youth adaptability and sustainable recovery in Eastern Sudan. |
| Keywords: | youth unemployment, Eastern Sudan, war impact, gender, displacement, logistic regression |
| JEL: | C25 I32 J13 J64 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127418 |
| By: | Luke D. Brinkman; Andrew Jordan; Derek Neal |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of a reform to parole supervision in Illinois. The reform reduced the term of supervision for some parolees from 12 months to 6 months while many similar parolees continued to receive 12 months of supervision. We evaluate the impact of the reform using a standard difference-in-differences estimator, and we find clear evidence that the reform reduced prison re-entry rates. Sharp drops in rates of technical revocations drove these reductions. Rates of prison re-admissions linked to new crimes did not change. We merge data from Cook County Courts with our data on state prison admissions and releases, and we find no evidence that the reform increased crime rates among parolees. The reform reduced both the cost of incarceration and the cost of parolee supervision without creating harms to public safety. |
| JEL: | J18 K0 K14 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34663 |
| By: | Elie Gray (TBS - Toulouse Business School); André Grimaud (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We formalize inter-sectoral knowledge diffusion in a standard fully endogenous Schumpeterian growth model. Each sector is simultaneously sending and receiving knowledge; thereby, to produce new knowledge, the research and development activity of each sector draws from a pool of knowledge which stems from this diffusion. This enables us to revisit the scale effects issue by revealing how this property (inconsistent with empirical evidence) relates with knowledge diffusion (the importance of which is empirically highlighted). Weshow that suppressing knowledge diffusion across sectors is a sufficient but not necessary condition for obtaining scale-invariancy. Then, we identify several sets of assumptions which enable us to obtain models which are reasonably consistent with empirical evidence both on scale effects and how knowledge diffuses in the economy. Specifically, these models do not exhibit scale effects (or at least not significant ones) while considering various scope of knowledge diffusion (including possible occurrence of general-purpose technologies). |
| Keywords: | Schumpeterian growth theory, Scale effects, Knowledge diffusion, Knowledge, spillovers, Non rivalry, Technological distance |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04723727 |
| By: | Massimo Guidolin, Mingwei (Max) Liang, Milena Petrova |
| Abstract: | We investigate the long-term, regime-dependent asset allocation of an investor’s wealth in a mixed-asset portfolio that includes publicly traded real estate. We show that augmenting standard VAR models with Markov-switching features not only improves predictive power for asset returns but also introduces economically meaningful horizon effects in optimal portfolio allocations. As the investment horizon lengthens, optimal portfolio allocations become less sensitive to the prevailing regime. Across initial states, the sensitivity of portfolio allocations to the investment horizon manifests primarily through a gradual reallocation toward risky assets relative to risk-free assets, particularly at lower levels of risk aversion. Public real estate receives economically meaningful portfolio allocations under these conditions. Out-of-sample portfolio tests further show that regime-switching models deliver higher realized utility and Sharpe ratios than linear and i.i.d. benchmarks. Overall, the results highlight the economic value of incorporating regime shifts into longterm portfolio choice and confirm the continued role of publicly traded real estate in mixedasset portfolios. |
| Keywords: | REITs, regime switching, asset allocation, horizon effects |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp26263 |
| By: | Dominic Kelly (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Lindsey Macmillan (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Jake Anders (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | At age 16, young people in England make important decisions about their educational pathways. The `academic pathway' is the result of enrolling in A level qualifications, which are typically necessary for admission to undergraduate education. Within the academic pathway, evidence suggests that a young persons' A level subject choices additionally shape their access to the selective universities. To date, there is little evidence on trends in the participation of young people from disadvantaged backgrounds in these `academic tracks' in the English education system. In this paper, we provide new evidence using data from three cohorts across 15 years: the Next Steps study, Millennium Cohort Study and COVID Social Mobility and Opportunities study. We focus on tracking levels of inequalities in whether to engage in academic pathways based on social origin (family background) and social context (social deprivation by geography). Results provide little evidence of change in the proportion of low socioeconomic status young people studying for A level qualifications, or in the reduction of inequalities in those studying for high return subjects. There is, however, consistent indication that social origin is more predictive of decisions made at age 16 than social context. Further research will engage with the historical contexts of these cohort studies (i.e., the raising of the participation age) to understand the impact of specific policies regarding socioeconomic inequalities in education pathways. |
| Keywords: | inequalities, social origin, social context, academic track, curricular differentiation, cross-cohort |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:26-01 |