|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Andreas Diemer; Tanner Regan; Cheng Keat Tang |
| Abstract: | We study the extent of segregation in the social space of urban America. We measure segregation as the (lack of) actual personal connections between neighbourhoods as opposed to conventional measures that assume the strength of these connections. We distinguish social segregation from geographical definitions of segregation, building and comparing city-level indices of each. We apply our measures to the 75 largest MSAs in the USA. Cities like Miami, Washington DC, and Cincinnati rank higher in social segregation than they do based on the conventional residential isolation, while New Orleans, San Francisco, and Richmond fall in ranks. Conditional on residential segregation, cities with more institutions that foster social cohesion (churches and community associations) are less socially segregated. Looking at within-city variation across neighbourhoods, growing up more socially exposed to non-White neighbourhoods is related to various adulthood outcomes (jailed, income rank, married, and non-migrant) for Black individuals. Social exposure to non-White neighbourhoods is related to worsening adulthood outcomes in neighbourhoods that are majority non-White. Our results suggest that social connections, beyond residential location or other spatial relationships, are important for understanding the effective segregation of race in America. |
| Keywords: | Residential and Social Segregation; Networks; Social connectedness. |
| JEL: | R23 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2025-008 |
| By: | Daniel Borbely (Department of Economics, Queen’s University Belfast,); Markus Gehrsitz (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow); Stuart McIntyre (Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn); Gennaro Rossi (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | School closures occur regularly, driven by declining school performance, depopulation, school buildings not meeting safety regulations, and a range of other factors. This has given rise to a large literature examining the effect of school closures on educational outcomes, but only a limited literature on the effect of these closures on local crime rates. In this paper we study the effects of permanent school closures on crime. We leverage the closure of over 200 schools in Scotland between the school years 2006/07 and 2018/19, and employ a staggered difference-in-differences design. Our results show that neighbourhoods affected by school closures experience a reduction in crime of about 10% of a standard deviation, relative to areas where schools remained open. This effect is mainly driven by a reduction in vandalism and property crimes. We provide evidence on several mechanisms explaining the negative crime effect, such as changes in neighbourhood composition and displacement of crime-prone youth. |
| Keywords: | crime, school closures, neighbourhoods |
| JEL: | I38 R20 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2025-06 |
| By: | Lillian Fu; Charles S. Gascon |
| Abstract: | More single-family homes are being bought by investors to rent out. An analysis examines how this affects renters, home values and the U.S. housing market. |
| Keywords: | residential real estate; housing; single-family rental |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:102011 |
| By: | Filkoski, Vasil; Tevdovski, Dragan |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology that leverages open-source geospatial data on fuel station infrastructure and related services to construct the Gas Station Index (GSI), a novel indicator that augments official and alternative measures of regional economic development. Gas stations serve as consumer-facing infrastructure nodes, and their density and quality reflect local demand, purchasing power, and mobility. Using data on 19, 033 stations across 62 regions in nine European countries, the GSI explains 64% of the cross-regional variation in GDP per capita - a notable result for a single-variable indicator. Beyond its statistical fit, the GSI uncovers meaningful economic patterns. It reflects diminishing returns to infrastructure, consistent with core economic theory; it maps spatial inequality both visually and statistically, highlighting clusters of prosperity in capitals, port cities, transit corridors, and tourist destinations; and it classifies regional development typologies through bivariate LISA analysis. The unexplained variation underscores the structural differences between infrastructure-based indicator and GDP per capita, driven by sectoral specialization, mobility patterns, and informal economic activity. The GSI should therefore be viewed not as a substitute for national accounts, but as a complementary indicator particularly relevant at the subnational level. Compared to existing indicators, it offers distinct advantages: GDP per capita is delayed and masks heterogeneity, while night-time lights suffer from saturation and rural undercoverage. By contrast, the GSI provides a ground-level, behaviorally grounded, and real-time measure of economic development. By capturing both infrastructure and consumption dynamics, it complements—and in certain respects surpasses—conventional indicators in tracing regional growth trajectories and spatial inequality. |
| Keywords: | regional income, regional inequality, economic development measurement, infrastructure, geospatial data, nowcasting. |
| JEL: | C43 C55 E01 O18 O47 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126108 |
| By: | J. Vernon Henderson; Francisco Libano-Monteiro; Martina Manara; Guy Michaels; Tanner Regan |
| Abstract: | Urban planning has shaped cities for millennia, demarcating property rights and mitigating coordination failures, but its rigidities often conflict with market-driven development. Although planning is common in high-income countries, rapidly growing cities in the developing world are characterized by urban informality. Greenfield urban planning is a key option, but we lack economic theory and evidence to evaluate planners’ choices. This paper presents a dynamic model to evaluate the effects of plot sizes and amenities on consumer outcomes. This framework is applied to a flagship project in Dar es Salaam that subdivided peri-urban land into more than 36, 000 formal plots, which people purchased and built homes on. We assemble a novel dataset using administrative records, satellite imagery, and primary surveys. Informed by the model, we study the effects of planning choices using within-neighborhood variation and spatial regression discontinuities. We find that by securing property rights and local road access, the project doubled land values relative to nearby unplanned areas. Connectivity to the city is prized, as evidenced by price appreciation and construction rate differences between and within areas. The price elasticity of bare land to plot size is -0.5, suggesting an oversupply of large plots despite the sorting of highly educated owners into the project and its larger plots. In contrast to connectivity and plot size, other planning choices, such as intended non-residential land uses and plot configurations, matter less. Counterfactual analysis using the estimated structural model shows that while land value maximization provides larger plots, welfare maximization provides smaller plots serving more low-income people. |
| Keywords: | Urban Planning; Economic Development; Africa. |
| JEL: | R58 R31 O18 R14 O21 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2025-007 |
| By: | Luisa Alama (Universitat Jaume I and IIDL); Joan Crespo (Universitat de València); Miguel A. Márquez (Universidad de Extremadura); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (Universitat Jaume I, IIDL and Ivie) |
| Abstract: | We empirically evaluate how the efficiency of Spanish public universities impacts regional economic performance in Spain during the period 2010–2019. Efficiency is measured using activity analysis methods that attempt to capture reflect how universities perform in their respective missions— namely, teaching, research, and knowledge transfer. We analyse the geography of higher education by examining efficiency at the provincial (NUTS3) and regional (NUTS2) levels, as well as for groups of regions (NUTS1). Our results offer several key insights. First, we find that geography plays a differential role primarily when knowledge transfer activities are considered, while geographical patterns are similar for teaching and research activities. Second, the impact of universities’ efficiency on regional economic activity varies across different outcome measures. While provinces with more efficient public university systems show higher labor productivity and capital intensity levels, there is no significant relationship with per capita income. The spatial analysis indicates that efficiency gains generate indirect and positive spillovers, particularly for capital intensity, suggesting that improvements in university performance can benefit broader regional areas. Additionally, institutional quality, measured through regional government performance indicators, reinforces these effects. Our findings suggest that policies aimed at enhancing university efficiency should prioritise the research mission. Among the three university missions, research has the greatest impact on improving productive processes and is the most effective in fostering regional economic development. |
| Keywords: | bias-corrected efficiency; capital intensity; higher education institutions; regional growth; productivity |
| JEL: | C61 J24 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2510 |
| By: | Barriga Cabanillas, Oscar Eduardo; Farooq, Marziya; Meyer, Moritz; Wieser, Christina |
| Abstract: | This study revisits Pakistan’s level of urbanization using satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanization methodology. While official statistics report that 39 percent of the population resides in urban areas, this analysis reveals that the true figure is closer to 88 percent. The substantial discrepancy arises from Pakistan’s reliance on administrative boundaries that do not reflect actual population density or settlement patterns. The findings indicate that secondary cities and peri-urban areas—not megacities—are the primary drivers of recent urban expansion and are systematically overlooked by the official classifications. The discrepancy between functional and administrative classifications of urban areas has important fiscal and planning implications. Misclassified areas reduce property tax revenues and undermine the planning and provision of critical public services. Moreover, misclassification distorts spatial socioeconomic indicators, masking the true extent of urban-rural disparities and complicating the design of effective, evidence-based public policy. |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11247 |
| By: | Kohei Takeda; Atsushi Yamagishi |
| Abstract: | Why the city centre re-emerged from destruction. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration, history, expectations, atomic bombing, spatial dynamics |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:717 |
| By: | J. Vernon Henderson; Francisco Libano-Monteiro; Martina Manara; Guy Michaels; Tanner Regan |
| Abstract: | The economics of greenfield urban planning |
| Keywords: | urban planning, economic development, africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:720 |
| By: | Hurmeranta, Risto; Lyytikäinen, Teemu |
| Keywords: | Nominal loss aversion, housing market, household mobility, R21, R23, R31, fi=Asuntopolitiikka|sv=Bostadspolitik|en=Housing policy|, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:178 |
| By: | Yibo Sun |
| Abstract: | This study uses the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to estimate the causal impact of a January 2025 wildfire on housing prices in Altadena, California. We construct a 'synthetic' Altadena from a weighted average of peer cities to serve as a counterfactual; this approach assumes no spillover effects on the donor pool. The results reveal a substantial negative price effect that intensifies over time. Over the six months following the event, we estimate an average monthly loss of $32, 125. The statistical evidence for this effect is nuanced. Based on the robust post-to-pre-treatment RMSPE ratio, the result is statistically significant at the 10% level (p = 0.0508). In contrast, the effect is not statistically significant when measured by the average post-treatment gap (p = 0.3220). This analysis highlights the significant financial risks faced by communities in fire-prone regions and demonstrates SCM's effectiveness in evaluating disaster-related economic damages. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.22817 |
| By: | Bobba, Matteo; Frisancho, Verónica; Pariguana, Marco |
| Abstract: | This paper explores an information intervention designed and implemented within a school assignment mechanism in Mexico City. Through a randomized experiment, we show that providing a subset of applicants with feedback about their academic performance can enhance sorting by skill across high school tracks. We embed the experimental variation into an empirical model of schooling choice and outcomes to assess the impact of the intervention for the overall population of applicants. Feedback provision is shown to increase the efficiency of the student school allocation, while congestion externalities are detrimental for the equity of downstream education outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Educación, Sector académico, Estudiantes, Docentes, Ciencia conductual, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2538 |
| By: | Florian Allroggen; R. John Hansman; Christopher R. Knittel; Jing Li; Xibo Wan; Juju Wang |
| Abstract: | Air transportation supports economic growth and global connectivity but imposes localized environmental costs, particularly through aircraft noise. We estimate the causal effect of aviation noise on housing prices using quasi-experimental variation from the Federal Aviation Administration's rollout of performance-based navigation (PBN) procedures and runway reconfigurations at three major U.S. airports. Combining high-resolution flight trajectory data with geocoded housing transactions, we apply a difference-in-differences hedonic framework to identify changes in exposure unanticipated by residents. A one-decibel increase in annual day-night average sound level reduces house prices by 0.6 to 1.0 percent. Among alternative noise metrics, average exposure explains property value impacts most strongly. Willingness to pay for quieter conditions varies systematically with income and race, indicating that aircraft noise externalities have meaningful distributional consequences. Our results highlight the need to incorporate localized environmental costs into aviation and urban land-use policy. |
| JEL: | L51 L62 L85 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34431 |
| By: | Precetti, Josephine |
| Abstract: | France’s railway expansion following the Law of 11 June 1842 significantly reshaped nationwide connectivity and economic opportunities. This dissertation investigates the causal impacts of railway access between 1846 and 1861 on city-level industrial development. Using a dataset combining industrial surveys with digitized railway records, it employs a robust Difference-in-Differences approach, leveraging the quasi-exogenous roll-out of the centrally planned ‘étoile de Legrand’ railway network. Empirical results show railway access increased industrial activity primarily extensively: railway-connected cities saw approximately a 20% rise in the number of factories and workers, especially in labour-intensive sectors like textile in Lille and ceramics in Limoges. Yet, intensive effects such as factory size, productivity, and wages remained statistically and economically negligible. Contrary to theoretical predictions from trade and New Economic Geography models, capital-intensive sectors, such as metallurgy in Lorraine, did not exhibit statistically significant responsiveness. These findings reframe the role of transport infrastructure from being a deterministic catalyst to being better understood as a conditional enabler. While railways expanded market potential, their short to medium term transformative impact critically depended on complementary institutional frameworks notably financial markets and property rights, technological readiness, and regional contexts. Acknowledging the historical data limitations, this study underscores that transport infrastructure alone is insufficient for structural economic upgrading without the appropriate institutional, technological, and human capital conditions in place at the right time. |
| JEL: | N73 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129951 |
| By: | Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Dustmann, Christian (University College London); Otten, Sebastian (RWI); Schönberg, Uta (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Most studies on the labor market effects of immigration use repeated cross-sectional data to estimate the effects of immigration on regions. This paper shows that such regional effects are composites of effects that address fundamental questions in the immigration debate but remain unidentified with repeated cross-sectional data. We provide a unifying empirical framework that decomposes the regional effects of immigration into their underlying components and show how these are identifiable from data that track workers over time. Our empirical application illustrates that such analysis yields a far more informative picture of immigration’s effects on wages, employment, and occupational upgrading. |
| Keywords: | elasticity, upgrading, employment effects, wage effects, immigration, selection, identification |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J31 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18229 |
| By: | Jacob Adenbaum (CUNEF Universidad); Fil Babalievsky (Census Bureau); William Jungerman (UNC Chapel Hill) |
| Abstract: | Why do wages grow faster in bigger cities? We use French administrative data to decompose the urban wage growth premium and find that the answer has surprisingly little to do with cities themselves. While we document substantially faster wage growth in larger cities, 80% of the premium disappears after controlling for the composition of firms and coworkers. We also document significantly higher job-to-job transition rates in larger cities, suggesting workers climb the job ladder faster. Most strikingly, when we focus on workers who remain in the same job -- eliminating the job ladder mechanism -- the urban wage growth premium falls by 94.1% after accounting for firms and coworkers. The residual effect is statistically indistinguishable from zero. These results challenge the view that cities generate human capital spillovers ``in the air, '' suggesting instead that urban wage dynamics reflect the sorting of firms and workers and the pace of job mobility. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.22294 |
| By: | Ham, John C. (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Khan, Saima (North South University, Bangladesh) |
| Abstract: | BRAC has over 40, 000 schools worldwide. It is widely praised for serving disadvantaged students and for matching or outperforming government schools. Using data that we collected from Dhaka’s slums, we test these claims. We find that BRAC serves the most disadvantaged students in our survey, but contrary to popular belief, BRAC students perform significantly worse than comparable students at other school types when we control for family demographics in a matching procedure. Anticipating our need to control for selection, we collected data on family demographics and the child’s fluid intelligence; since the latter affects both types of school and student performance, it unambiguously should be included in the propensity score. Once we control for fluid intelligence, the performance difference with other NGO schools disappears. The gaps between government and JAAGO schools have narrowed, but they still remain large and statistically significant. |
| Keywords: | choice-based sampling, fluid intelligence, math achievement, BRAC schools, common support, matching |
| JEL: | C21 C83 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18214 |
| By: | Rongjun Ao; Ling Zhong; Jing Chen; Xiaojing Li; Xiaoqi Zhou |
| Abstract: | While prior research has emphasized the path-dependent nature of occupational systems, it has paid limited attention to how local industrial structures contribute to occupational change. To address this gap, this study examines how regional occupational evolution is shaped by two distinct mechanisms: (1) path-dependent skill and knowledge transfer, whereby new occupations emerge through the recombination of existing occupational structures; and (2) industry-driven task reconfiguration, through which industrial upgrading reshapes the demand for occupations. To operationalize these dynamics, the concept of industry–occupation cross-relatedness is introduced, capturing the proximity between new occupations and a region’s existing industrial portfolio. Drawing on panel data from 241 Chinese cities between 2000 and 2015, the study estimates the effects of both occupational relatedness and cross-relatedness on new occupation specialization. The results reveal that both mechanisms significantly promote occupational evolution, yet they tend to function as substitutes rather than complements. Furthermore, their effects differ across skill levels: high-skilled occupations are more responsive to industrial transformation, low-skilled occupations to occupational pathways, while medium-skilled occupations exhibit relatively weak responsiveness to both. These findings underscore the importance of structural conditions and skill heterogeneity in shaping regional patterns of occupational change. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Evolution; Path Dependence; Chinese Cities; Industry-Occupation Cross-Relatedness; Skill Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R11 O14 N95 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2533 |
| By: | Christian Dustmann; Sebastian Otten; Uta Sch\"onberg; Jan Stuhler |
| Abstract: | Most studies on the labor market effects of immigration use repeated cross-sectional data to estimate the effects of immigration on regions. This paper shows that such regional effects are composites of effects that address fundamental questions in the immigration debate but remain unidentified with repeated cross-sectional data. We provide a unifying empirical framework that decomposes the regional effects of immigration into their underlying components and show how these are identifiable from data that track workers over time. Our empirical application illustrates that such analysis yields a far more informative picture of immigration's effects on wages, employment, and occupational upgrading. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.24225 |
| By: | Elizabeth Dhuey (University of Toronto); A. Abigail Payne (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research); Justin Smith (Wilfred Laurier University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the long-term consequences of math and reading rank within an elementary school on short and long-term outcomes. We find that higher rank leads to better outcomes. Students ranked at the top in grade 7 perform up to 0.33 standard deviations higher on future school exams, are more likely to graduate high school and university, and earn significantly more at age 28. Math rank is especially predictive of high school completion and income. Reading rank is more strongly associated with university graduation. We find differences in the effect of rank on trajectories by gender for both top and bottom ranks. Our findings suggest that classroom position, even conditional on ability, has persistent effects, with implications for equity and early intervention. |
| Keywords: | Post-secondary Education, School Rank, Gender, Earnings |
| JEL: | I22 I26 I21 J3 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2025n16 |
| By: | Elizabeth Dhuey; A. Abigail Payne; Justin Smith |
| Abstract: | We estimate the long-term consequences of math and reading rank within an elementary school on short and long-term outcomes. We find that higher rank leads to better outcomes. Students ranked at the top in grade 7 perform up to 0.33 standard deviations higher on future school exams, are more likely to graduate high school and university, and earn significantly more at age 28. Math rank is especially predictive of high school completion and income. Reading rank is more strongly associated with university graduation. We find differences in the effect of rank on trajectories by gender for both top and bottom ranks. Our findings suggest that classroom position, even conditional on ability, has persistent effects, with implications for equity and early intervention. |
| Keywords: | post-secondary education, school rank, gender, earnings |
| JEL: | I22 I26 I21 J3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12227 |
| By: | Wang, Han; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether and how government-led institutional changes can reshape regional industrial development trajectories. Using quarterly panel data from Chinese cities between 2019 and 2024, we assess the impact of reforms of the business environment on firm creation within both path creation and path dependent industries. Applying a staggered difference-in-differences approach combined with coarsened exact matching, our findings reveal that business environment reforms significantly increase firm creation in path creation industries, especially in high-tech sectors and cities with initially weaker business environments. Key mechanisms identified include enhancements in the market environment and government services, which are central to driving these effects. |
| Keywords: | path creation; institutional change; business environment; path dependence; firm creation |
| JEL: | O11 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–10–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129990 |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha; Zając, Tomasz; Tomaszewski, Wojtek; Mitrou, Francis |
| Abstract: | This study employs 2011 Census data linked to population-based administrative datasets to explore disparities in educational attainment and earnings trajectories among Australian-born children of diverse parental migration backgrounds from mid-adolescence to early adulthood. Non-English Speaking Background (NESB) second-generation immigrants exhibit superior academic outcomes, primarily driven by children of parents from select Asian countries. These individuals are more likely to complete higher education, particularly bachelor’s and master’s degrees, and specialise in fields such as management and commerce, health, natural and physical sciences, and engineering. Children of NESB immigrant parents initially earn less than their peers with Australian-born parents at ages 21–22. However, this gap closes by ages 23–24 and reverses by ages 26–27, with children of NESB fathers out-earning their counterparts by ages 28–29. Conversely, children of English-Speaking Background (ESB) immigrant parents, who exhibit weaker academic performance, also experience lower earnings compared to peers with Australian-born parents. This disparity emerges by ages 22–23 and widens throughout the study period, peaking at ages 28–29. The findings underscore the academic and economic advantages of NESB second-generation immigrants, contrasting with the challenges faced by ESB migrant counterparts. Overall, the results highlight the critical role of education in supporting the economic integration of migrants and their descendants in the host country. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Intergenerational Correlation; Education; Income; Census; Administrative data; Australia |
| JEL: | I24 J15 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126127 |
| By: | Amior, Michael; Manning, Alan |
| Abstract: | If labour markets are competitive, migration can only affect native wages via marginal products. But under imperfect competition, migration may also increase wage mark-downs—if firms have greater monopsony power over migrants than natives, but cannot perfectly wage discriminate. While marginal products depend on relative labour supplies across skill cells, mark-downs depend on migrant concentration within them. This insight can help rationalise empirical violations of canonical migration models. Using US data, we conclude that migration does increase mark-downs: this expands aggregate native income, but redistributes it from workers to firms. Policies which constrain monopsony power over migrants can mitigate these adverse wage effects. |
| JEL: | J31 J42 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128735 |
| By: | Adrjan, Pawel (Indeed Hiring Lab); Gromadzki, Jan (Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether exclusionary government rhetoric targeting a minority group affects residents' migration decisions. In 2019, almost 100 local governments in Poland voted to declare their localities "free from LGBTQ ideology, " providing a unique setting in which government narratives suddenly changed, but the legal situation of targeted minorities remained the same. We study the impact of these resolutions on migration intentions using novel data on domestic and international job search from a large global job site. Comparing counties with anti-LGBTQ resolutions to neighboring counties in a difference-in-differences design, we find that the resolutions increased domestic out-of-county job search by 12 percent and international job search by 15 percent. Our results are likely driven by the shock to beliefs about local social norms, as we find the largest effects in counties with relatively low prior support for far-right parties. We also present suggestive evidence that the rise in job search translated into actual migration, with the treated counties losing nearly 1 percent of their young adult population. |
| Keywords: | job search, migration intentions, migration, discrimination, LGBTQ |
| JEL: | F22 R23 N40 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18217 |
| By: | Jenkins, Kush K.; Whitfield, Carlos J.; Johnson, Anthony |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the economic effects of the Montgomery Bus Boycott, an event often celebrated for its moral and social significance, yet underexplored in terms of its fiscal implications. We assess the hypothesis that the Boycott had no measurable impact on the City of Montgomery’s public finances and find compelling evidence to the contrary. Our analysis demonstrates that the Boycott significantly contracted municipal revenue and simultaneously escalated public expenditures, particularly in policing and fire services, driven by the city's "get tough" policy response. Using historical financial records and time-series forecasting (ARIMA), we quantify the growing fiscal strain experienced by the city. Although Montgomery maintained budget surpluses during the Boycott period, projections indicate a rising probability of deficits had the protest continued beyond its resolution. These findings highlight the economic leverage wielded by organized civil resistance and underscore the material costs incurred by municipal governments when confronting movements for racial justice. |
| Keywords: | Economic History, Montgomery Bus Boycott, Civil Rights Movement, Fiscal Impact, Martin Luther King, Rosa Parks, Protest Economics, Time-Series Forecasting, African American History, Local Government Budgets |
| JEL: | N42 H72 D74 B52 I38 H75 Z18 R51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330397 |
| By: | Aipoh, Godwin; Yusuff, Olanrewaju |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of higher education expansion on regional labor markets and human capital development. Exploiting the 2011 establishment of nine federal universities across previously underserved Nigerian states, we implement a difference-in-differences approach to analyze effects on employment, wages, job quality, and sectoral composition. Our results show significant positive effects on employment and wages, with particularly strong impacts for youth and in urban areas. We find evidence of both direct employment effects and broader spillovers to private sector activity such as self-employment, suggesting universities can serve as catalysts for regional economic development. Our findings contribute to understanding the role of higher education institutions in human capital formation and labor market development in emerging economies |
| Keywords: | Higher Education, Labor Markets, Economic Development, Regional Growth, Universities, Employment, Wages, Nigeria, Africa |
| JEL: | H5 H52 I25 J21 O15 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126532 |
| By: | Albornoz, Facundo; Almeyda, Gonzalo; Lombardi, María; Oubiña, Victoria; Zoido, Pablo |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of a randomized one-on-one remote phone tutoring program implemented between 2021 and 2023. The intervention reached more than seven thousand students in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru. The program targeted students with low initial learning levels and focused on foundational numeracy skills using a differentiated instruction approach. We find that assignment to tutoring increased student test scores by 0.2 SD. Tutoring benefited all students, with no differential effects by gender, age, socioeconomic status, or baseline scores. Students who initially reported having difficulty with concentration or memory experienced larger average effects. Finally, we find that students with lower initial performance exhibited larger improvements in more basic mathematical operations, whereas those with better performance at baseline saw larger gains in more complex operations. This underscores the importance of offering differentiated instruction based on students initial performance. |
| Keywords: | remote tutoring;Foundational skills;Differentiated instruction;learning outcomes;Educational disparities |
| JEL: | I20 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14342 |
| By: | Woo-Gómez, Guillermo; Woo-Mora, Guillermo |
| Abstract: | Do cooperative firms foster local economic development? This paper examines Mexico, assembling a new georeferenced panel dataset at the 10 × 10 km grid-cell level for 2015–2023. Across multiple research designs, we consistently find that cooperative presence boosts local development, measured by nightlight intensity. An event-study design shows persistent extensivemargin gains of 6–8% within four years of entry. To address selection concerns, we implement a shift–share IV strategy based on endogenous lagged-cooperative presence and plausibly exogenous sectoral growth shocks; the results imply that one additional cooperative increases nightlight density by about 2.7%. Complementary census evidence links cooperatives to higher schooling, home asset ownership, and decrease migration pressures. We also document stronger effects in Indigenous communities, where cooperatives have longer survival spells. Aggregate patterns suggest that cooperatives increase agricultural specialization but with clear productivity gains, while redistributive effects raise local disposable income and decrease poverty. These findings provide novel causal evidence that cooperatives can function as engines of inclusive local development. |
| Keywords: | Desarrollo local, Políticas públicas, Investigación socioeconómica, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2535 |
| By: | de Bromhead, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.; Ohler, Johann |
| Abstract: | Poor housing conditions, and the negative effects of Household Air Pollution (HAP) in particular, remain one of the most pressing global public health challenges. While the association between poor housing and health has a long history, evidence of a direct link is lacking. In this paper, we examine a rare example of a public housing intervention in rural areas, namely the large-scale provision of high-quality housing in Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We exploit a novel dataset of deaths-by-disease and deaths-by-age-and-sex over the period 1871–1919, to test the impact of the intervention on mortality. Our difference-in difference estimates indicate that improved housing conditions reduced mortality by as much as 1 death per 1000. This effect is driven by reductions in deaths from respiratory diseases. We propose a likely mechanism that is consistent with the pattern of results we observe: a reduction in Household Air Pollution through improved housing quality and better ventilation. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the scheme was a highly cost-effective intervention. |
| Keywords: | Ireland; Labourers Act; household air pollution; health transition; social housing; infectious disease |
| JEL: | N33 N93 Q53 O18 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129884 |
| By: | Bergantino, Angela S.; Clemente, Antonello; Iandolo, Stefano; Turati, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution and determinants of skill-specific internal mobility among Italian citizens by urban-rural origin. Using administrative data from the Registry of Transfer of Residence (ADELE), which records the universe of skill-specific bilateral moves across more than 700 millions potential municipality pairs between 2012 and 2022, we document distinct trends in residential mobility for college-educated and non-college-educated citizens. We then assess the role of economic and non-economic factors in shaping these flows, employing a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator with an extensive set of destination and origin-by-nest fixed effects. Our findings show that low-skilled movers respond more strongly to economic factors, while high-skilled movers are respond more to non-economic ones, with the urban-rural divide at origin amplifying these differences. Moreover, we find that after the COVID-19 pandemic, economic drivers became less relevant, whereas non-economic factors gained importance. Overall, this study highlights that, similar to international migration, the drivers of internal mobility are inherently skill-specific. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Human Capital, Urban-Rural, Italy, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1685 |
| By: | Duaa Abdullah; Jasem Hamoud |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide a good overview of the problems and the background of mathematics education in Syrian schools. We aimed to study the effect of using popular mathematical puzzles on the mathematical thinking of schoolchildren, by conducting a paired experimental study (pre-test and post-test control group design) of the data we obtained through a sample taken from students of sixth-grade primary school students in Syria the Lady Mary School in Syria, in order to evaluate the extent of the impact of popular mathematical puzzles on students' ability to solve problems and mathematical skills, and then the skills were measured and the results were analyzed using a t-test as a tool for statistical analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.26263 |
| By: | Jason R. Bailey; W. Brent Lindquist; Svetlozar T. Rachev |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the contributions of ten intrinsic and extrinsic factors, including ESG (environmental, social, and governance) factors readily available from website data to individual home sale prices using a P-spline generalized additive model (GAM). We identify the relative significance of each factor by evaluating the change in adjusted R^2 value resulting from its removal from the model. We combine this with information from correlation matrices to identify the added predictive value of a factor. Based on data from 2022 through 2024 for three major U.S. cities, the GAM consistently achieved higher adjusted R^2 values across all cities (compared to a benchmark generalized linear model) and identified all factors as statistically significant at the 0.5% level. The tests revealed that living area and location (latitude, longitude) were the most significant factors; each independently adds predictive value. The ESG-related factors exhibited limited significance; two of them each adding independent predictive value. The elderly/disabled accessibility factor was much more significant in one retirement-oriented city. In all cities, the accessibility factor showed moderate correlation with one intrinsic factor. Despite the granularity of the ESG data, this study also represents a pivotal step toward integrating sustainability-related factors into predictive models for real estate valuation. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.02120 |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou (ZEW, University of Mannheim, and IZA); Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (CEMFI and Banco de España); Karen Kopecky (FRB Cleveland and Emory University) |
| Abstract: | The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is employed to estimate peer effects in opioid misuse. Severe injuries in the previous year are used as an instrument for opioid misuse in order to estimate the causal impact of a person’s best friends’ opioid misuse on their own misuse. The estimated peer effects are significant: Having a best friend who misuses opioids following a serious injury increases the probability of own opioid misuse by around 7 percentage points in a population where 17 percent ever misuses opioids. The effect is concentrated among non-college graduates and peers with strong ties who are central in their friendship networks. Peer opioid misuse eventually leads to deteriorating health and opioid addiction. |
| Keywords: | Opioid, peer-group effects, friends, instrumental variables, Add Health, severe injuries. |
| JEL: | C26 D10 I12 J11 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2520 |
| By: | Hamza Hanbali; Gaurav Khemka; Himasha Warnakulasooriya |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes two government policies affecting housing demand: early withdrawal from pension savings (EW), and reduction of loan deposit (RD). A model incorporating demand feedback on housing prices using Australian data shows both policies raise prices in the short run. RD delays or prevents access for low-income households, particularly in supply-constrained markets. EW improves accessibility across groups and is most efficient when full withdrawal is permitted, but can reduce retirement security if pension grows faster than property prices. The results also indicate that unequal outcomes stem not from price surges themselves but from pre-existing market disparities. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.01133 |
| By: | López, Rigoberto A.; Seoane, Luis |
| Abstract: | The meatpacking industry is a crucial intermediary between ranchers and the downstream supply chain, and concentration within the industry has significant implications for stakeholders in terms of competition and transmission of efficiencies. Due to constraints on the efficient transportation of live animals over long distances, ranchers primarily operate within regional markets. In this paper we provide new knowledge about the degree of regional concentration in the beef packing industry and propose a model to examine its impact on the wholesale farm-price spread. Findings indicate a significant increase in concentration across all regions, with some regions experiencing up to a 300 percent rise in the Herfindahl index, although concentration levels vary considerably among the different regions. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea23:341195 |
| By: | Yeonha Jung; Minki Kim; Munseob Lee |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term impact of Hyanggyo, state-sponsored educational institutions established during the early Joseon Dynasty in Korea (1392-1592), on human capital accumulation. Although these schools largely ceased functioning as educational centers by the late 16th century, their influence has endured to the present day. Drawing on a newly constructed township-level dataset, we find a robust positive association between historical exposure to Hyanggyo and modern educational attainment. This relationship appears to be driven by enduring local demand for education, supported by three complementary findings. First, regions with greater historical exposure experienced larger gains in Japanese literacy during colonial era school expansions. Second, residents in these areas express stronger pro-education attitudes today. Third, historically exposed regions exhibited lower fertility rates, consistent with a quantity–quality tradeoff in parental investment. Together, our findings highlight the lasting legacy of early educational institutions. |
| Keywords: | Historical institutions, Human capital, Hyanggyo, Joseon, Cultural transmission |
| JEL: | I23 J24 N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_707 |
| By: | Marina Della Giusta (Department of Economics and Statistics "Cognetti di Martiis", University of Turin; Florent Dubois); Florent (Department of Economics and Statistics "Cognetti di Martiis", University of Turin); Giovanni Razzi (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Giacomo Rosso (Department of Economics and Statistics "Cognetti di Martiis", University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | We present a gender landscape framework designed to aid both diagnosis of existing gender inequalities in cities and the evaluation of policies that intend to redress them. It is made of three pillars allowing separate consideration of the institutional, policy and welfare outcomes landscapes. We illustrate the diagnostic use of the framework with an application to four medium size European cities taking part in the Horizon 2020 IN-HABIT consortium whose aim is to increase inclusive health and wellbeing with a focus on gender. |
| Keywords: | gender landscape, urban policy, spatial inequality |
| JEL: | I14 I31 R1 R2 |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2025-02 |
| By: | Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulus; Elias Papaioannou; Tanner Regan |
| Abstract: | Satellite images of nighttime lights are commonly used to proxy local economic conditions. Despite their popularity, there are concerns about how accurately they capture local development in different settings and scales. We compile an annual series of comparable nighttime lights globally from 1992 to 2023 by applying adjustments that consider key factors affecting accuracy and comparability over time: top coding, blooming, and variations in satellite systems (DMSP and VIIRS). Applied to various low-income settings, the adjusted luminosity series outperforms the unadjusted series as a predictor of local development, particularly over time and at higher spatial resolutions. |
| Keywords: | Night Lights; Economic Development; Measurement; Africa. |
| JEL: | O1 R1 E01 I32 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2025-009 |
| By: | Natee Amornsiripanitch; Philip E. Strahan; Song Zhang |
| Abstract: | Older home sellers receive lower returns than younger home sellers. Homes sold by older people have fewer major renovations but higher rates of poor upkeep. Older sellers are also more likely to sell off-MLS (“pocket listings”) and to sell to investors, leading to lower prices. These patterns suggest that older sellers may be disproportionately disadvantaged by agents’ incentive to maximize fees through generating high sales volume instead of maximizing sale prices. Age-related cognitive decline makes the elderly more vulnerable. For causal evidence, we show that reforms making private listings more transparent reduced both the prevalence of pocket listings and the magnitude of the age gap in returns. |
| Keywords: | Aging; housing returns; incentive misalignment |
| JEL: | G5 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102051 |
| By: | Deborah Gefang; Stephen G Hall; George S. Tavlas |
| Abstract: | We develop a new Bayesian approach to estimating panel spatial autoregressive models with a known number of latent common factors, where N, the number of cross-sectional units, is much larger than T, the number of time periods. Without imposing any a priori structures on the spatial linkages between variables, we let the data speak for themselves. Extensive Monte Carlo studies show that our method is super-fast and our estimated spatial weights matrices and common factors strongly resemble their true counterparts. As an illustration, we examine the spatial interdependence of regional gross value added (GVA) growth rates across the European Union (EU). In addition to revealing the clear presence of predominant country-level clusters, our results indicate that only a small portion of the variation in the data is explained by the latent shocks that are uncorrelated with the explanatory variables. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.22399 |
| By: | Maré, David C. (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust); Fabling, Richard (Independent Researcher) |
| Abstract: | We estimate relative wage discrimination for ethnic and migrant groups in New Zealand, using linked employer-employee and firm-level productivity data, and comparing each group’s contribution to output with their share of their firm’s wage bill. We find that wage discrimination is relatively favourable for European migrants and Asian/MELAA employees, and relatively unfavourable for M?ori, Pacific, and NZ-born European employees, with variation across NZ-born, recent migrants, and longer-term migrants. We present pooled and firm-fixed effects estimates of discrimination, highlighting distinct within-firm and between-firm patterns. |
| Keywords: | ethnicity, productivity, earnings |
| JEL: | J15 J30 J42 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18216 |
| By: | Xue, Melanie |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a structured approach for using genealogical records from FamilySearch to study Chinese historical demography. As a proof of concept, we focus on over 190, 000 digitized records from a single surname, drawn from many provinces and spanning multiple centuries. These lineage-based microdata include individual-level birth, death, and kinship information, which we clean, validate, and geocode using consistent rules and standardized place names. We begin by documenting descriptive patterns in population growth, sex ratios, and migration. Migration was overwhelmingly local, with longdistance moves rare and concentrated in a small number of lineages. Outmigration rose to a high point between 1750 and 1850 and then declined in later cohorts and generations. We then use the genealogical data to test specific hypotheses. Male-biased sex ratios—likely influenced by female infanticide—are strongly associated with higher rates of male childlessness. Migration rates fall sharply with patrilineal generational depth, offering micro-level evidence that clans became more sedentary over time. Together, these findings show how genealogical records can be used to reconstruct long-run demographic patterns and to assess social processes such as kinship, mobility, and reproductive exclusion. The approach is replicable and extensible to other surnames and regions as data coverage improves. |
| Keywords: | crowd-surfed genealogies; historical demography; China |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N10 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129939 |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus; Watanabe, Axel |
| Abstract: | This article demonstrates the emergence of agglomeration unaccompanied by conventional drivers such as scale economies, externalities or comparative advantages. We construct a two-region general equilibrium model with four types of households; there are four commodities and the same linear production functions in each region. Households migrate in search of commodities they lack in their endowment. A type sorts disassortatively toward another type who holds such commodities, resulting in intense agglomerations of diverse types. In contrast, a type sorts assortatively away from another type when they compete for endowments that cannot be transported or produced, resulting in moderate agglomerations dominated by selected types. We identify type complementarity and endowment portability as the primary causative factors behind spatial sorting and the resultant equilibrium agglomeration. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; general equilibrium; spatial sorting |
| JEL: | R13 |
| Date: | 2025–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125958 |
| By: | Jason Godfrey; Trisha Banerjee |
| Abstract: | This study applies an optimized XGBoost regression model to estimate district-level expenditures on high-dosage tutoring from incomplete administrative data. The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented learning loss, with K-12 students losing up to half a grade level in certain subjects. To address this, the federal government allocated \$190 billion in relief. We know from previous research that small-group tutoring, summer and after school programs, and increased support staff were all common expenditures for districts. We don't know how much was spent in each category. Using a custom scraped dataset of over 7, 000 ESSER (Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief) plans, we model tutoring allocations as a function of district characteristics such as enrollment, total ESSER funding, urbanicity, and school count. Extending the trained model to districts that mention tutoring but omit cost information yields an estimated aggregate allocation of approximately \$2.2 billion. The model achieved an out-of-sample $R^2$=0.358, demonstrating moderate predictive accuracy given substantial reporting heterogeneity. Methodologically, this work illustrates how gradient-boosted decision trees can reconstruct large-scale fiscal patterns where structured data are sparse or missing. The framework generalizes to other domains where policy evaluation depends on recovering latent financial or behavioral variables from semi-structured text and sparse administrative sources. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.24899 |
| By: | Emma Duchini; Victor Lavy; Stephen Machin; Shqiponja Telhaj |
| Abstract: | Many governments are increasingly decentralizing the governance of public sector organizations, by granting more autonomy to their managers. At the same time, public sector managers often cannot use key personnel practices, such as pay-for-performance or firing. In this context, it becomes especially important to study the personnel policy of effective public sector organizations. This paper contributes to this goal by leveraging a large-scale successful educational reform that has turned around low-performing schools through the outsourcing of their management to a range of independent organizations. Taking advantage of the staggered introduction of English sponsored academies from the early 2000s onwards, we show that the new school managers systematically make three personnel-related decisions. First, the probability that they appoint a new headteacher doubles upon the takeover. New headteachers are, on average, less experienced, but more likely to come from outstanding schools and better paid. Second, sponsors choose to invest in younger and less experienced teachers, who have either previously served in outstanding schools or who are high-performing fresh university graduates willing to start their career in disadvantaged schools. At the same time, the management takeover increases the likelihood that more experienced and lower-achieving teachers leave. Third, and likely contributing to explain these sorting dynamics, sponsors substantially redesign teachers' pay structure and abandon a seniority-based pay scale, leading to an increase in pay dispersion across equally experienced teachers. These results suggest that injecting a culture of high-performance is an effective way to induce less motivated employees to leave and high-achieving ones to join in settings where firing is not an option. |
| Keywords: | public sector organizations, personnel policy, teacher sorting, academy school |
| Date: | 2025–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2129 |
| By: | Moura, B.; Pollitt, M. G. |
| Abstract: | This article investigates spatial-neighbour effects in the deployment of small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, examining whether the installation rate in a given area is affected by the quantity of nearby solar PV systems. We study 1.4 million solar PV systems in England and Wales, analysing installations over the period 2010 – 2024. The results from 2010–2015 reveal that an additional solar PV system in a local authority is associated with an additional 0.128 installations 3 months later, suggesting a positive role of peer effects and observational learning. In contrast, from 2016–2024, spatial-neighbour effects are instead found to be negative, indicating saturation amongst the households likely to adopt solar PV. We further show that, by contrast, heat pumps do not exhibit any spatial-neighbour effects and that the collective buying scheme Solar Together did not appear to increase installations in the period 2015–2020. |
| Keywords: | Solar PV, Spatial-Neighbour Effect, Energy Policy |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2566 |
| By: | Verdugo, Gregory (University of Cergy-Pontoise); Kandoussi, Malak (University of Evry) |
| Abstract: | We examine how relocations from the center to the suburbs of establishments employing mainly skilled workers affect the composition and wages of their employees. Using data from the Paris metro area, we find that these relocations increase average commuting time by 19%. In response, firms compensate highly paid workers with 10 to 20% of their hourly wage per additional hour of commuting. Lower-paid workers receive no compensation and are more likely to leave. Consistent with workers valuing locational amenities, we find little increase in separation and no wage adjustment for increased commuting time when establishments relocate to more attractive neighborhoods. |
| Keywords: | firm’s location, commuting time, labor supply |
| JEL: | J16 D13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18232 |
| By: | Ferrando, Mery (Tilburg University); Katzkowicz, Noemi (Universidad de la Republica); Le Barbanchon, Thomas (Bocconi University); Ubfal, Diego (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the long-term effects of work-study programs, leveraging a randomized lottery design from a national program in Uruguay. Participation leads to a persistent 11 percent increase in formal labor earnings seven years after the program, driven by a 4 percent increase in the monthly probability of being employed and a 6 percent increase in monthly wages. Effects are significantly larger for men, while remaining positive for women. The program is highly cost-effective, outperforming most job training programs and reaching levels comparable to early childhood investments. |
| Keywords: | school-to-work transition, youth employment, work-study program, long-term effects |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J13 J24 J31 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18238 |
| By: | Johanna Arlinghaus; Théo Konc; Linus Mattauch; Stephan Sommer |
| Abstract: | Do citizens support policy instruments because they appreciate their effects or because they are convinced by their objectives? We administered a large-scale representative survey with randomised video treatments to test how different policy frames - time savings, health and environment - affect citizens' attitudes towards urban tolls in two large European metropolitan areas, Berlin-Brandenburg and Paris-Ile de France. Presenting urban tolls as a solution to air pollution increases support by up to 11.4 percentage points, presenting them as a climate change or congestion relief measure increases support by 7.1 and 6.5 percentage points, respectively. We demonstrate via a causal mediation analysis that the observed changes in policy support are mainly framing effects; changes in beliefs about policy effects play a secondary role. Thus, we uncover a new mechanism shaping public opinion on economic policies: the stated objectives of an identical policy design can shape citizens' views in distinct ways. |
| Keywords: | political |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0077 |
| By: | Bublik, Nikolas; Mittag, Franziska; Hess, Sebastian |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364711 |
| By: | Teresa Baribieri (University of Bari); Vito Peragine (University of Bari); Michele Raitano (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Keywords: | returns to education, compulsory schooling reforms, earnings mobility and volatility, lifecycle effects; earnings dynamics. |
| JEL: | J18 J24 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bai:series:series_wp_03-2025 |
| By: | Bennett, Patrick (University of Liverpool); Johnsen, Julian V. (SNF, Bergen) |
| Abstract: | We study how the labor market shocks of automation and immigration interact to shape workers’ outcomes. Using matched employer–employee data from Norwegian administrative registers, we combine an immigration shock triggered by the European Union’s 2004 enlargement with an automation shock based on the adoption of industrial robots across Europe. Although these shocks largely occur in separate industries, we show that automation reduces earnings not only in manufacturing but also in construction, where tasks overlap with robot-exposed sectors. Importantly, workers jointly exposed to automation and immigration suffer earnings losses greater than those facing either shock in isolation. These losses are driven by downward occupational mobility into low-wage services and re-sorting into lower-premium firms. Even within the Norwegian welfare system, the ability of social insurance to offset these long-run earnings declines is limited. Our findings underscore the importance of analyzing labor market shocks jointly, rather than in isolation, to fully understand their distributional consequences. |
| Keywords: | labor market shocks, immigration, automation |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18218 |
| By: | Yörük, Baris (University at Albany, SUNY) |
| Abstract: | How does diversity affect charitable giving? On the one hand, diversity can lead to increased charitable giving, as individuals may feel more connected to and invested in their community when they see the diversity of needs and perspectives within it. On the other hand, diversity can also create challenges for charitable giving, as individuals may have different priorities, beliefs, and cultural norms that affect their willingness to give to certain causes and organizations. Using data from 2010-2020 county-level income tax returns linked to the U.S. Census population estimates, I find a negative impact of local ethnic diversity on charitable giving. In particular, I document that a one percentage point increase in the local ethnic fragmentation index is associated with up to a 2.9 percent decrease in the fraction of tax returns with charitable contributions and a 2 percent decrease in charitable contributions as a fraction of adjusted gross income. |
| Keywords: | local ethnic diversity, charitable giving, fundraising |
| JEL: | J10 J18 H30 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18222 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dual-channel framework for analyzing technology diffusion that integrates spatial decay mechanisms from continuous functional analysis with network contagion dynamics from spectral graph theory. Building on our previous studies, which establish Navier-Stokes-based approaches to spatial treatment effects and financial network fragility, we demonstrate that technology adoption spreads simultaneously through both geographic proximity and supply chain connections. Using comprehensive data on six technologies adopted by 500 firms over 2010-2023, we document three key findings. First, technology adoption exhibits strong exponential geographic decay with spatial decay rate $\kappa \approx 0.043$ per kilometer, implying a spatial boundary of $d^* \approx 69$ kilometers beyond which spillovers are negligible (R-squared = 0.99). Second, supply chain connections create technology-specific networks whose algebraic connectivity ($\lambda_2$) increases 300-380 percent as adoption spreads, with correlation between $\lambda_2$ and adoption exceeding 0.95 across all technologies. Third, traditional difference-in-differences methods that ignore spatial and network structure exhibit 61 percent bias in estimated treatment effects. An event study around COVID-19 reveals that network fragility increased 24.5 percent post-shock, amplifying treatment effects through supply chain spillovers in a manner analogous to financial contagion documented in our recent study. Our framework provides micro-foundations for technology policy: interventions have spatial reach of 69 kilometers and network amplification factor of 10.8, requiring coordinated geographic and supply chain targeting for optimal effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.24781 |
| By: | Zhaoxing Gao; Sihan Tu; Ruey S. Tsay |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates estimation and inference of a Spatial Arbitrage Pricing Theory (SAPT) model that integrates spatial interactions with multi-factor analysis, accommodating both observable and latent factors. Building on the classical mean-variance analysis, we introduce a class of Spatial Capital Asset Pricing Models (SCAPM) that account for spatial effects in high-dimensional assets, where we define {\it spatial rho} as a counterpart to market beta in CAPM. We then extend SCAPM to a general SAPT framework under a {\it complete} market setting by incorporating multiple factors. For SAPT with observable factors, we propose a generalized shrinkage Yule-Walker (SYW) estimation method that integrates ridge regression to estimate spatial and factor coefficients. When factors are latent, we first apply an autocovariance-based eigenanalysis to extract factors, then employ the SYW method using the estimated factors. We establish asymptotic properties for these estimators under high-dimensional settings where both the dimension and sample size diverge. Finally, we use simulated and real data examples to demonstrate the efficacy and usefulness of the proposed model and method. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.01271 |
| By: | Ventsislavova Georgieva, Daniela; Georgieva, Teodora |
| Abstract: | The report analyses the innovation potential of Bulgaria's furniture industry and agribusiness through a cluster approach, emphasizing regional disparities and challenges. The results indicate that the furniture industry suffers from low investment in innovation and limited digitization, while agribusiness faces low productivity and regional imbalances despite its steady growth. Leading regions (Ruse, Gabrovo, Dobrich, Yambol) demonstrate high economic activity and innovation development. National policies in the sector should focus on increasing investments in new technologies, promoting balanced regional development, and enhancing cluster coordination to improve competitiveness and sustainability in both sectors. |
| Keywords: | furniture industry, agribusiness, cluster analysis, innovation potential |
| JEL: | O1 O10 Q00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126240 |
| By: | André de Palma; Zhenyu Yang; Pietro Giardina; Nikolas Gerolimnis (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | We aim to infer commuters’ scheduling preferences from their observed arrival times, given an exogenous traffic congestion pattern. To do this, we employ a structural model that characterizes how users balance congestion costs against the penalties for arriving early or late relative to an ideal time. In this framework, each commuter selects an arrival time that minimizes her overall trip cost by considering the within-day congestion pattern along with her individual scheduling preference. By incorporating the distribution of these preferences and desired arrival times across the population, we can estimate the likelihood of observing arrivals at specific times. Using synthetic data, we then apply the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to recover the parameters of the joint distribution of scheduling preferences and desired arrival times. Our numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. |
| Keywords: | Bottleneck, Scheduling preferences, Traffic flow; Travel demand management |
| JEL: | C25 R41 D12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2025-15 |
| By: | Jan Frankowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Aleksandra Prusak; Jakub Soko³owski; Sona Stara; Wojciech Be³ch; Michal Nesládek; Tomáš Vácha |
| Abstract: | The report provides an overview of the housing stock and residents’ opinions on energy issues in Polish and Czech housing cooperatives and homeowners’ associations. The findings are based on a survey conducted among residents of these types of housing organizations in both countries. The report indicates that although the overall technical condition of buildings is good and some modernization projects have already been implemented, the pace of the energy transition is limited by financial, social, and organizational factors. |
| Keywords: | housing cooperatives, energy transition, Poland, Czechia |
| JEL: | J21 L71 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:report:rr022025 |
| By: | Stephen B. Billings; Michael D. Makowsky; Kevin Schnepel; Adam Soliman |
| Abstract: | From 2005 to 2019, forty US states raised the dollar value threshold delineating misdemeanor and felony theft, reducing the expected punishment for a subset of property crimes. Using an event study framework, we observe significant and growing increases in theft after a state reform is passed. We then show that reduced sanctions for theft have broader effects in the market for illegal activity. Consistent with a mechanism of substitution across income-generating crimes, we find decreases in both drug distribution crimes and the probability that a released offender previously convicted of drug distribution is reincarcerated for a new drug conviction. |
| Keywords: | crime, theft, felony, punishment |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2130 |