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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Zuchowski, David; Maciel, Mateus |
| Abstract: | Most empirical research finds that immigration has no effect on crime. Nevertheless, public concerns about immigration and crime persist, possibly driven by misperceptions. In this paper, we examine how an immigration shock affects crime perception. Specifically, we analyze the impact of the sudden and large-scale arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Poland following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using unique data on reported safety concerns, we find a persistent decline in perceived risk in regions more affected by the refugee inflow. We provide additional evidence that this effect stems from a shift in local crime perception due to exposure to war refugees, rather than from a reduction in actual safety threats. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Crime Perception, Safety Concerns, Refugee Migration |
| JEL: | F22 J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127411 |
| By: | Toshiyuki MATSUURA; Masahiro ENDOH; Hisamitsu SAITO |
| Abstract: | In a rapid aging society such as Japan, the promotion of inbound tourism is expected to be a catalyst for revitalizing local economies. This study reexamines the so-called tourism-led growth hypothesis by investigating whether tourism promotes regional development using data at the commuting zone level in Japan. We construct the commuting zone-level data for the number of domestic and international overnight visitors by aggregating the individual data of hotels and accommodations obtained from Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (Japan Tourism Agency). To assess the causal impact, a shift-share instrumental variable was used to address the simultaneity of regional economic indicators and the number of overnight visitors. Our results indicate that the increase in inbound tourists has a positive effect on some economic indicators, such as an increase in taxable income per capita, an increase in the population of young people, and an increase in commercial land prices in regions with small population sizes that are highly dependent on tourism and in large cities with international airports. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25032 |
| By: | White, Tim |
| Abstract: | What happens when venture capitalists try to reinvent housing in their own image? Synonymous with the rise of Big Tech, venture capitalists (VCs) are asset managers that invest in early‐stage companies, pursuing aggressive growth and market domination. Since the 2008 financial crisis, VCs have poured huge sums into real estate start‐ups. Yet these actors are largely overlooked in the housing financialization and platform real estate literature. Attending to this gap, this article traces VC‐fuelled attempts to build a globally scaled residential operator. It closely follows investment, acquisition and consolidation activity in the co‐living sector over the past decade, where companies seek expansion via parasitic landlordism: exploiting urban rent‐gaps as intermediaries between landlords and tenants. I show how venture capitalists have pushed these start‐ups to rapidly increase the number of beds under operation and cities covered. But, faced with the complex, costly and variegated reality of housing systems, they invariably incur spiraling losses. It is tenants who pay the price, suffering emotionally and financially from the hazards of hyperscaling—from negligence to dispossession. In all, the article interrogates a key set of actors underlying the housing‐tech‐finance nexus, and the consequences of their experimentation for households and cities. It calls for closer attention to how investors are reshaping housing markets beyond asset ownership, and to who is financing ʻproptech’ and why this matters. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–01–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129995 |
| By: | Zhao, Xialing; Fan, Linlin; Xu, Yilan |
| Abstract: | Understanding how climate change beliefs are shaped by social networks is critical for designing effective climate communication strategies, yet the degree of peer influence across spatial and political contexts remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the influence of peer counties on local climate change beliefs using a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. We construct geographic, political, and economic peer networks at the county level and quantify the magnitude of peer effects. Results show that a 10% increase in climate change beliefs among peer counties is associated with a 4.2% to 9.2% increase in average beliefs within the focal county, depending on the network type. The geographic peer network exerts the strongest influence, with estimated effects ranging from 6.7% to 9.2%, followed by the political network, with effects between 4.2% and 7.5%. Counterfactual simulations reveal that targeting interventions at top key opinion leader (KOL) counties—those most connected in a network—is more effective than targeting counties with extreme belief levels or KOL counties with below-average beliefs. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to promote climate belief formation and encourage climate-friendly behaviors through network-informed interventions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360759 |
| By: | Akira SASAHARA; Jongkwan LEE |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of the increased influx of immigrants triggered by the 1990 Reform to Japan’s Immigration Act on high school students’ career choices—specifically, whether they pursue higher education or enter the workforce after graduation. We employ the instrumental variable approach using a shift-share instrument based on historical settlement patterns. The results suggest that the influx of immigrants led more high school students to seek employment outside their home prefectures and to pursue higher education. These findings indicate that immigration can drive adjustments in human capital formation. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26002 |
| By: | Ji, Yikuan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distributional and behavioral impacts of New York City’s congestion pricing policy, launched in January 2025 as the first cordon-based system in the United States. Using detailed trip-level data from the NYC Citywide Mobility Survey and a structure discrete choice model of travel mode choice, I estimate heterogeneous responses to price and service changes across demographic and geographic groups. Empirical results confirm strong disutility for both travel cost and time, with limited substitution between private vehicles and public transit. Counterfactual simulations show that the current toll design alone has minimal effect on reducing vehicle use. However, reinvesting toll revenue into transit—via fare reductions and service improvements—increases subway use, stabilizes bus share, and modestly shifts travelers away from cars. These effects are more pronounced for longer trips and for travel involving Manhattan’s core. In contrast, raising tolls without reinvestment delivers negligible additional impact. These results highlight the need to pair pricing with targeted transit investment to achieve both efficiency and equity goals. Future work will quantify welfare impacts across demographic and geographic subgroups to inform inclusive urban transportation policy. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360946 |
| By: | Yolanda de Llanos (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Luisa Alamá-Sabater (Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Miguel Ángel Márquez (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the concept of left-behind places through the lens of neoendogenous development, with special attention to the role of the social economy in enhancing territorial resilience. Focusing on the Autonomous Community of Extremadura (Spain) as a representative regional case, it investigates the bidirectional relationship between population dynamics and employment using a simultaneous equations model that captures the spatial interdependencies among rural, urban and semi-urban municipalities. The findings highlight that employment growth drives population growth (supporting the idea that people follow jobs) while no evidence is found for the reverse. Local factors such as age structure, foreign population, income per capita and the presence of cooperatives also play a significant role in shaping these dynamics. Notably, the presence of social economy entities has a positive effect on both population and employment growth. The results suggest several policy pathways to mitigate depopulation: promoting employment in urban and intermediate areas, improving rural accessibility, and strengthening the social economy as a key strategy to foster sustainable local development. |
| Keywords: | depopulation, left-behind places, neo-endogenous development, rural, social economy |
| JEL: | C3 O18 O21 R1 R23 R3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/03 |
| By: | Cainelli, Giulio; Ciccarelli, Carlo; Ganau, Roberto |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in a country’s administrative hierarchy affect development at the city level. We exploit the 1806 Napoleonic administrative reform implemented in the Kingdom of Naples as a historical experiment to assess whether district capitals endowed with supra-municipal administrative functions gained an urban development premium compared with non-capital cities. We find that district capitals recorded a population growth premium throughout the nineteenth century (1828–1911) and experienced higher industrialization both before and after the Italian unification (1861) compared with non-capital cities. We explain our results through mechanisms related to public goods provision and transport network accessibility. |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130883 |
| By: | Pierre-Philippe Combes (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Clément Gorin (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Shohei Nakamura (WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale); Mark Roberts (WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes urbanization patterns across Sub-Saharan Africa circa 2015 using a dartboard algorithm and high-resolution gridded population data to delineate urban areas and urban cores, cities and their population centers, and towns. Key empirical regularities are presented regarding urban hierarchies and internal city structures. Urbanization rates often exceed official ones and vary considerably across countries from 29.4 % in Gabon to 78.1 % in Kenya. Within countries, delineated areas show great size diversity following Zipf's law, without much urban primacy. Cities' land area increases slightly less proportionally to their population. Monocentric population patterns with declining population density toward peripheries largely dominate, though some large multicentric extended, not necessarily capital, cities exist. |
| Keywords: | urbanization Sub-saharan africa Dartboard approach Satellite imagery Population density, Urbanization; Sub-Saharan Africa; Dartboard Approach; Satellite Imagery; Population Density |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05446319 |
| By: | Buyukyazici, Duygu; Coll-Martínez, Eva |
| Abstract: | This study provides the first conceptual and empirical framework to evaluate the cultural and creative industries’ (CCIs) skill composition by utilising the revealed skill requirements method. First, it identifies the most important skills within and across the CCIs. Second, it maps their spatial distribution and links them to the stage-sensitive regional specialisation of the CCIs. Finally, it formalises a framework to assess the specialisation potential patterns. Moving beyond a generic treatment of the CCIs, this study develops a comprehensive, bottom-up approach to regional CCIs policy, focusing on place-specific capabilities and untapped potential of regions by comparing their skill endowments with observed CCIs’ specialisation patterns. |
| Keywords: | complexity; creativity; cultural and creative industries; human capital; regional specialisation; skill relatedness |
| JEL: | B52 J24 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130094 |
| By: | Bao, Yangming; Götz, Martin |
| Abstract: | We examine peer effects in corporate finance by assessing how a firm's investment influences its neighboring peer firms' investment. To uncover the exogenous com- ponent of investment, we exploit time variation in the increases in state corporate income taxes across the United States and utilize heterogeneity in local peer firms' exposure to these tax increases to construct an instrumental variable. We identify a positive and robust causal effect of local peer firms' investment decisions on firm investment. Distinguishing between physical and intangible investment, we find that peer firms' investment in physical (intangible) capital only influences firm investment in the same type of capital, particularly when that capital is central to operations. Further evidence indicates that learning from peers is an important factor, as peer effects are more pronounced for firms with stronger learning motives. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Investment, Peer Firm Effects, Corporate Income Tax, Agglomeration |
| JEL: | G0 G31 G38 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:334531 |
| By: | Baez, Javier E.; Kshirsagar, Varun Sridhar |
| Abstract: | Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9, 300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems. |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11285 |
| By: | Beuermann, Diether; Pariguana, Marco |
| Abstract: | Choosing a school is one of the most important decisions parents make with regards to their children's human capital, yet they often face restricted choice sets. We study parental preferences over peer quality and school effectiveness in the centralized education market of Barbados, where admissions are based on a one-shot exam and parents face a binding cap on the number of schools to which they can apply. Exploiting a policy reform that further tightened this cap, we show that parents responded by omitting the most selective schools from their applications, underscoring how market design shapes application behavior. We then estimate parental preferences for school effectiveness measured by impacts on test scores and adult wages as well as peer quality. Preference estimates under the assumption of truth-telling indicate that parents do not value effectiveness after controlling for peer quality. In contrast, preference estimates under the assumption of market stability, which allows for strategic behavior, show that parents place substantial weight on both effectiveness and peer quality. This divergence arises because the most selective schools are also the most effective, forcing parents to trade off effectiveness against admission probabilities. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14455 |
| By: | Bonifacio Agustín Germán; Amieva Adriana; Neme Pablo |
| Abstract: | We examine the problem of assigning teachers to public schools over time when teachers have tenured positions and can work simultaneously in multiple schools. To do this, we investigate a dynamic many-to-many school choice problem where public schools have priorities over teachers and teachers hold path-independent choice functions selecting subsets of schools. We introduce a new concept of dynamic stability that recognizes the tenured positions of teachers and we prove that a dynamically stable matching always exists. We propose the Tenure-Respecting Deferred Acceptance (TRDA) mechanism, which produces a dynamically stable matching that is constrained efficient within the class of dynamically stable matchings and minimizes unjustified claims. To improve efficiency beyond this class, we also propose the Tenure-Respecting Efficiency-Adjusted Deferred Acceptance (TREADA) mechanism, an adaptation of the Efficiency-Adjusted Deferred Acceptance mechanism to our dynamic context. We demonstrate that the outcome of the TREADA mechanism Pareto-dominates any dynamically stable matching and achieves efficiency when all teachers consent. Additionally, we examine the issue of manipulability, showing that although TRDA and TREADA mechanisms can be manipulated, they remain non-obviously dynamically manipulable under specific conditions on schools’ priorities. |
| JEL: | D71 C78 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4780 |
| By: | Bäckström, Peter (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | A deteriorating security environment has led to a renewed interest in understanding individuals’ willingness to fight for their country. This study examines how attitudes towards military conscription service differ between native-born youth and those with an immigrant background in Sweden, with a specific focus on differences between first- and second-generation immigrants. Using population-wide data linking responses from a mandatory survey with high-quality administrative registers, the analysis covers nearly all Swedish citizens born between 2000 and 2004. The results show that first and second-generation immigrants have very different attitudes towards military service. While first-generation immigrants are equally, or even slightly more, willing than natives to serve in the military, second-generation immigrants are considerably less positive. These differences persist even after adjusting for socioeconomic background and migration origin, challenging a common assumption in migration research that children of immigrants converge towards majority-group attitudes across generations. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms behind second-generation immigrants’ lower willingness to serve. |
| Keywords: | military service; migration background; defence willingness; Sweden |
| JEL: | H56 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1041 |
| By: | Quintana Pablo; Herrera-Gomez Marcos |
| Abstract: | Identifying regions that are both spatially contiguous and internally homogeneous remains a core challenge in spatial analysis and regional economics, especially with the increasing complexity of modern datasets. These limitations are particularly problematic when working with socioeconomic data that evolve over time. This paper presents a novel methodology for spatio-temporal regionalization—Spatial Deep Embedded Clustering (SDEC)—which integrates deep learning with spatially constrained clustering to effectively process time series data. The approach uses autoencoders to capture hidden temporal patterns and reduce dimensionality before clustering, ensuring that both spatial contiguity and temporal coherence are maintained. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we show that SDEC significantly outperforms traditional methods in capturing complex temporal patterns while preserving spatial structure. Using empirical examples, we demonstrate that the proposed framework provides a robust, scalable, and data-driven tool for researchers and policymakers working in public health, urban planning, and regional economic analysis. |
| JEL: | C1 C4 C45 C63 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4831 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Digitalization has become a central driver of contemporary urban governance, reshaping how authorities regulate movement, allocate resources, and manage public space. While often portrayed as innovation-led progress, these systems carry far-reaching implications for social order, accountability, and individual autonomy. Acknowledging these tensions is essential to understanding the political stakes of technologically mediated urban life. Within this context, the contemporary city increasingly operates as a logistical apparatus of control, where the apparent fluidity of human and products circulation conceals a deeply disciplinary infrastructure. Ostensibly neutral urban components-digital platforms, delivery hubs, and surveillance technologiesparticipate in an invisible regulation of behavior within the paradigm of the city-as-prison. This panoptic dynamic, sustained by the promise of efficiency, simultaneously reinforces spatial and social segregation. Logistics, far from being a mere functional layer, emerges as a central vector of urban power. Yet, against this technocratic rationality, forms of resistance are taking shape-challenging the algorithmic governance of urban life. Participatory platforms, tactical interventions in public space, and the subversive repurposing of urban data express a collective desire to reclaim control over city resources. These initiatives go beyond critique; they articulate an alternative vision of urbanity grounded in transparency, collective deliberation, and spatial justice. By bridging infrastructural critique and democratic experimentation, the article argues that urban technologies can be reconfigured beyond their instrumental logic. |
| Keywords: | Algorithmic governance, City-as-prison, Digital infrastructure, Panopticon, Resistance, Surveillance, Urban logistics |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05401152 |
| By: | Chen, Luoye; Li, Tao; Zhang, Yi |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between biodiversity and municipal finance. At the county level, municipalities experience higher borrowing costs due to increased biodiversity exposure, significantly affecting both intensive and extensive margins. A one-standard-deviation increase in biodiversity exposure raises municipal bond yields by 42.4 (63.3) basis points (bps) dependent on the ecological and economic controls, while the extensive margin of bond issuance decreases by 0.61%. Our analysis highlights pricing heterogeneity based on regional species protection awareness finding that species awareness facilitates to mitigate the financial cost. This economic mechanism is driven by the effect of biodiversity conservation over real estate market, reflected in enriched biodiversity and lower credit ratings. Utilizing the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) as an exogenous shock, we causally identify that the observed pricing pattern results from stringent species protection policies. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360756 |
| By: | Yuji HONJO; Arito ONO; Daisuke TSURUTA |
| Abstract: | This study examines how regional financial development influences new firm creation and growth in Japan. Using prefecture–year panel data from 2007 to 2023, we distinguish between regional equity and debt capital, proxied by the number of investment limited partnerships and bank branches, respectively. We find that regions with greater equity capital have more newly founded firms and initial public offerings, and provide suggestive evidence of stronger sales growth among young firms (firms within five years of establishment), whereas regional debt capital has no significant effect. Moreover, regional equity capital is associated with higher employment shares of medium- and large-sized young firms and lower shares of small ones, implying that regional equity capital promotes a compositional shift in new firm creation toward larger entrants. These findings are robust to potential endogeneity concerns and to alternative measures of financial development. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26005 |
| By: | Álvarez, Inmaculada C.; Barbero, Javier; Orea, Luis; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Most studies of institutional quality and regional growth assume uniform effects across territories. However, this may mask crucial regional heterogeneity, with direct policy implications. We use a latent class framework applied to 230 EU regions over 2009-2017 to identify institution-driven regional parameter groups, and to examine both average effects and catching-up effects associated with changes in the institutional environment. We demonstrate that institutional quality generates highly variable returns to investment in physical capital and innovation. Nordic and Central European regions show highest returns to physical capital and R&D investment, whereas less-developed regions benefit most from education spending. Crucially, we find that improving government quality not only raises average returns but also promotes territorial cohesion. By contrast, regional autonomy shows limited impact on returns. Our findings challenge the one-size-fits-all approach to cohesion policy and indicate that cohesion policy should explicitly promote institutional improvements in addition to capital deployment. |
| Keywords: | institutional quality; European funds; investment; regional development |
| JEL: | E61 H54 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130747 |
| By: | Zhu, Yanlin; Miao, Ruiquing; Duke, Joshua |
| Abstract: | The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is one of the most important agrienvironmental policies in the United States. Farmers and landowners retire their land into vegetation cover and receive rental payments paid by the government. Although the program generates well-documented ecosystem benefits, there are debates about its potential negative impact on the local economy. This paper studies the distributional impact of the CRP program on the local agribusiness sector. By leveraging a detailed county-level panel dataset of agricultural expenses, we use an instrumental variable (IV) approach to identify the causal impact of the CRP enrollment acreage and local agricultural expenses. We find that an additional 10% increase in the acreage of CRP enrollment reduces local agricultural expenses by about 0.175% on average. This effect is robust in most regions and expense categories. We also find regional variations in the response between the Southeast and the Midwest. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360614 |
| By: | Gao, Yujuan; Ma, Yue; Mullally, Conner; Rozelle, Scott |
| Abstract: | This study examines spillover effects of targeted educational interventions through a field experiment in 130 rural Chinese boarding schools, comparing computer-assisted learning (CAL) and traditional workbooks. Results reveal significant negative spillovers of workbook interventions on nontarget students’ performance, particularly affecting those closely connected to targeted students. Effects intensify with increased exposure and peer interaction. The key mechanism appears motivational: Observing peers receiving supplementary workbook resources in class reduces students’ confidence in the value of their academic efforts for future careers. CAL interventions, conducted outside classrooms, show no such spillovers, highlighting the importance of considering unintended consequences in competitive, resource-limited environments. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360711 |
| By: | Talassino, Mauricio Rodrigo; Nicolini, Esteban; Aráoz, María Florencia |
| Abstract: | This paper has two main contributions. The first one is to present a new data set with 360 consistent local geographic units (CLGU henceforth) defined by matching the departments of each population census in Argentina between 1895 and 2022; this structure generates a traceable and transparent connection between the ways in which the information is presented in each census and, hence, it can be a crucial tool to combine information on socioeconomic dimensions across time. The second contribution is the estimation of local indicators of economic activity (LIEA henceforth) for Argentina for 1895 and 1960 and, using the 360 CLGUs, a completely novel exploration of spatialchanges of economic activity and local economic growth in Argentina in the first half of the twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | Regional inequalit; Regional growth; Argentina |
| JEL: | N1 N9 O4 R1 |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:48819 |
| By: | Borsekova, Kamila; Korony, Samuel; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Styk, Michal; Westlund, Hans |
| Abstract: | The importance of institutions and innovation for regional development is well established. How these two factors interact under different historical legacies and urban-regional contexts remains, however, insufficiently understood. This paper identifies which combinations of institutional and innovation indicators most effectively classify regions into distinct developmental archetypes, revealing critical thresholds that redirect regional trajectories. Employing decision-tree analysis on 233 EU NUTS-2 regions, we analyse 15 indicators spanning institutional quality, technological readiness, business sophistication, and innovation. This methodology uncovers non-linear relationships that traditional approaches cannot capture. The findings demonstrate that institutional quality acts as a necessary condition for innovation-led growth. High-performing regions, predominantly in Western and Northern Europe, benefit from robust institutions and strong innovation outputs. Many lower-performing regions, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, exhibit innovation potential but are constrained by governance deficits. By integrating institutional and innovation indicators within a single analytical framework, we underscore how addressing governance and innovation in tandem can result in balanced and sustainable growth across Europe. |
| Keywords: | regional development; institutions; innovation; decision tree modelling; regional competitiveness |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130741 |
| By: | Carsten Andersen; Timo Hener |
| Abstract: | Wind turbines play an important role in the green transition towards a pollutionfree generation of electricity. Yet, the deployment of new wind turbines faces increasing local and political opposition. The public discourse routinely goes beyond wind turbines’ established negative impact on house prices. However, evidence on how residents react to new turbines and whether human health and labor market outcomes are affected remains limited. We study how industrial-scale onshore wind turbines affect nearby communities in Denmark, combining geo-coded information on all wind turbines installed after 1995 with 25 years of administrative full-population data. Exploiting the staggered timing of wind turbine establishments in an event-study framework allowing for heterogeneous treatment effects, we estimate the impact on neighborhood composition at the address level, and on mental health and labor market outcomes at the individual level. We find small negative effects on the occupancy of houses nearby large turbines, indicating a decrease in attractiveness. However, we detect no meaningful impacts on mental health, productivity, or the socio-economic composition of neighborhoods. Overall, our evidence does not indicate large adverse health effects from proximity of wind turbines, but it is consistent with local disamenities. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_423 |
| By: | Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen |
| Abstract: | Housing (un-)affordability has become a defining social and economic challenge in German cities, shaping both wealth accumulation and intergenerational inequality. We decompose affordability into two components: the ability to service monthly mortgage payments and the ability to meet the upfront cash requirements for purchasing a home. Combining data on re-gional mortgage financing conditions, household incomes, and house prices from 1980 to 2024, we find that mortgage payments relative to income have changed little over time. In stark contrast, upfront costs relative to income have risen sharply: whereas households in 1980-1990 needed savings of less than two years of annual income to cover the equity re-quirement for an apartment purchase, households in 2015-2024 require more than three years. These results show that focusing on mortgage costs alone severely understates the decline in housing affordability. Instead, rising entry costs have become the primary constraint on homeownership, reinforcing advantages for households with existing wealth or familial financial support. |
| Abstract: | Die Erschwinglichkeit von Wohneigentum hat in deutschen Städten seit 1980 deutlich abgenommen, mit spürbaren Folgen für Vermögensbildung, soziale Mobilität und Generationengerechtigkeit. Wir betrachten die Erschwinglichkeit aus zwei Perspektiven: die Finanzierbarkeit von Zins- und Tilgungskosten und die Aufbringung des nötigen Eigenkapitals für den nicht fremdfinanzierten Teil des Kaufpreises, Steuern und Nebenkosten. Hierzu kombinieren wir Daten zu Hypothekenkonditionen, Haushaltseinkommen und Immobilienpreisen deutscher Städte im Zeitraum von 1980 bis 2024 und finden, dass sich die Hypothekenzahlungen relativ zum Einkommen über die Zeit nur wenig verändert haben. Im Gegensatz dazu stieg der Eigenkapitalbedarf relativ zum Einkommen deutlich an: Haushalte benötigten 1980-1990 weniger als zwei Jahreseinkommen um den Eigenkapitalbedarf beim Wohnungskauf zu decken, 2015-2024 hingegen mehr als drei. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine Fokussierung auf die Hypothekenkosten den Rückgang der Erschwinglichkeit von Wohneigentum deutlich unterschätzt. Stattdessen ist der Eigenkapitalbedarf zur zentralen Hürde geworden und begünstigt Haushalte, die bereits über Vermögen verfügen oder auf Vermögen aus dem familiären Umfeld zurückgreifen können. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability, Homeownership, Wealth inequality, Erschwinglichkeit von Wohneigentum, Wohneigentum, Vermögensungleichheit |
| JEL: | R21 R31 D31 G51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:334523 |
| By: | Baioni Tomás |
| Abstract: | One of the salient aspects of climate change is the increment of both the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. This paper addresses how these factors interplay at a local level, focusing on Chilean regions at a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2025, using the local projections method. Results suggest that on average, a 1% shock in natural disasters' intensity has an immediate negative effect in employment by 0.06%, and an immediate negative effect on the debt market, increasing the household debt by 0.1 p.p. Overall, my results suggest that a 1% shock in natural disasters' intensity has an immediate positive effect in real GDP by 0.02%, and a significant long-term negative effect on GDP by 0.05%, potentially showing signs of reallocation of a country's income. When analyzing natural disasters' frequency, estimates suggest that Chilean regions that suffer a natural disaster are more likely to experience short-term decreases in employment and increases in household debt, and lower GDP, although the latter effect is found to not be statistically significant. I rely on a panel VAR model to estimate the impact of natural disasters' intensity as robustness checks, and find that my original conclusions hold: natural disasters have a short-term negative effect on employment at 0.01% and a long-term negative effect on growth at 0.2%. |
| JEL: | H70 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4778 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Rivera-Olvera, Angelica |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the returns to education in Arkansas-one of the last states to extend compulsory schooling-using ACS 2023 data and the 1987 Compulsory Schooling Law (CSL) reform as an instrument. OLS estimates imply returns of 9.5-10.4 percent per year of schooling. The CSL reform increased schooling among compliers by 0.67-0.73 years and yields IV returns of 10.4-11.7 percent, exceeding OLS estimates. The results indicate that those compelled to remain in school benefited most, consistent with global evidence on higher causal returns for disadvantaged students. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education, Human capital, Wage differentials, Earnings function, Arkansas, Instrumental Variables, Compulsory Schooling |
| JEL: | I26 J24 C26 J31 I21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1703 |
| By: | Alexander Bick |
| Abstract: | This analysis suggests that CPS estimates of a sharp drop in the U.S. immigrant population and a surge in the native-born population in 2025 are overstated because of survey limitations. |
| Keywords: | immigration; Census Bureau; Current Population Survey (CPS) |
| Date: | 2025–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:102296 |
| By: | Felix Degenhardt |
| Abstract: | I examine whether the early but temporary availability of low-barrier employment opportunities in the hospitality sector affects the labor market integration of refugees. My identification strategy combines the quasi-exogenous allocation of refugees to Austrian regions with high seasonality in Austria's hospitality sector, where 25% of refugees find initial employment. Exploiting within region, within year variation, I find that receiving labor market access during high seasonal demand increases employment probability initially, with significant employment effects of up to 3 percentage points, or 9% of the mean, in the first months. Employment advantages diminish after the first year, indicating that such early employment opportunities do not serve as a stepping stone. Still, treated refugees have in total earned more in the first three years, with no significant differences in medium-term wages and job quality. One disadvantage of early employment in hospitality is the increased labor market segregation, as treated refugees are more likely to work in industries more typical for refugees and in firms with higher non-Austrian coworker shares. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.17422 |
| By: | Boczon, Marta (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Severgnini, Battista (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how regional economic conditions, birth timing, and institutional rules shape talent allocation into high-risk/high-reward payoff structure occupations. Using rich data on English-born professional footballers and exploiting exogenous variation from European Structural Funds in the United Kingdom (1990–2000), we show that improved local conditions reduced the share of summer-born children, who are disadvantaged by age-based cutoffs in youth academies but exhibit higher underlying talent. Although regional income per capita did not significantly change, fertility timing shifted, shrinking this high-potential group: players born after the intervention exhibit lower peak market values, reflecting how economic and institutional factors can misallocate talent. |
| Keywords: | Talent allocation; Early-life conditions; Birth-timing; Professional sports |
| JEL: | J13 J24 R11 Z22 |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_002 |
| By: | Rajan, Abhishek; Fleming, Patrick; Savchenko, Olesya |
| Abstract: | Excess stormwater runoff is a major environmental challenge in the U.S. Green infrastructure, including rain gardens, permeable pavement, and backyard infiltration, offers an effective solution for mitigating the negative impacts of excess stormwater runoff in urban landscapes. In an effort to encourage homeowners to adopt these practices, many cities have implemented voluntary, cost-sharing stormwater grant programs. Despite financial incentives, households’ participation in these programs has been low. Recent research suggests that transaction costs may be an important barrier to the adoption of urban stormwater BMPs. To investigate this, we conducted a choice experiment to estimate the effect of specific transaction costs associated with BMP program features on residents’ participation. Our findings indicate that residents perceive high transaction costs related to factors such as longer time spent on application paperwork and coordinating contractors, installation delays, and the absence of on-call technical support, which can affect their enrolment decision. Our WTA estimates show that perceived transaction costs are sufficient to offset the financial incentive of the cost-share stormwater program. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360755 |
| By: | Miguel Ángel Santos (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Adan Silverio-Murillo (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar (Business School, Universidad Anahuac); Abel Rodríguez (Author-Workplace-Name: School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey) |
| Abstract: | Objective: To examine the impact of El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy on crime. Methods: The identification strategy of this paper exploits the launch of the incarceration policy in El Salvador, which increased the country’s prison population by 150% in just one year, propelling it to the top of global incarceration rankings. The methodology consists of fixed-effects models. Data for homicides comes from the National Civil Police, while data for other crimes comes from El Salvador’s Multipurpose Household Survey. Results: El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy reduced homicides by 42%. Further, evidence suggests that the policy reduced street robberies by 20% and rapes by 62%, but had no measurable impact on assault, larceny, or motor vehicle theft. Conclusion: These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the selective effectiveness of punitive criminal justice strategies. The results suggest that the observed reduction in crime following the policy is primarily driven by incapacitation rather than deterrence. |
| Keywords: | Crime reduction, Public security policy, Policing, Mass incarceration, Homicide rates, Gang violence, Law enforcement, State capacity, El Salvador |
| JEL: | K42 H56 D74 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:20 |
| By: | Bilge Erten; Joseph E. Stiglitz; Eric Verhoogen |
| Abstract: | The CHIPS and Science Act, enacted in August 2022, is a key element of the revival of U.S. industrial policy. We examine the short-term employment effects of the act. Drawing on quarterly industry-by-county data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), we implement two county-level difference-in-difference designs, the first comparing counties with pre-existing semiconductor facilities to other counties with high-tech industries and the second comparing counties with semiconductor fabrication facilities (which were targeted for the bulk of the CHIPS funding) to counties with non-fabrication semiconductor facilities. Using both approaches, we find robust, positive employment impacts in affected counties. The effects began at the time of the passage in the Senate of a precursor bill, in anticipation of the signing of the CHIPS Act. Our preferred estimates suggest an increase of 110 jobs per affected county in the first design and 180 jobs per affected county in the second design. We also find robust positive impacts on local construction employment. Evidence on total employment and GDP at the county level, as well as on employment in upstream input sectors, is mixed. Simple back-of-the-envelope calculations (which come with caveats) suggest national direct employment effects of approximately 15, 000-16, 000 jobs in the core semiconductor sector and indirect effects of 28, 000-35, 000 jobs in related sectors. |
| JEL: | J01 L52 L63 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34625 |
| By: | Aleksandar Vasilev (Lincoln International Business School, UK) |
| Abstract: | Housing stock, and the accumulation of utility-enhancing housing capital are introduced as an additional mechanism into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. The model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2024). The quantitative importance of the presence of housing capital accumulation is investigated for the propagation of cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. In particular, allowing for housing considerations in the setup improves the model vis-a-vis data by increasing the variability of employment and decreasing the variability of consumption and investment. However, those improvements are at the cost of decreasing the volatility of wages. The model severely over-predicts variability of housing investment, and wrongly concludes that it is counter-cyclical. Still, the model with housing is a clear improvement relative to the standard RBC setup. |
| Keywords: | business cycles, housing, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2026-01 |
| By: | Acquah-Sarpong, Richard |
| Abstract: | Are firms better off when two adjacent regions with historically the same minimum wage experience a divergence in the minimum wage? We answer this question by investigating Oregon’s tiered minimum wage policy, implemented in 2016, and examining how introducing a regional wage difference for firms within and outside the Portland urban growth boundary (UGB) impacts firms’ credit default. We find that for firms in the Portland Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) with the higher minimum wage, introducing the tiered system led to a 3.4% increase in their credit scores relative to the credit scores of firms in the surrounding region with a lower minimum wage. This result implies a decrease in the average duration of delayed payment by 3.7 days. Our findings are particularly significant among small, independent, private firms and those outside the low-wage, high-violation industries. Although the intended purpose of the tiered policy was to alleviate financial pressure on firms in lower wage areas, it presents a net advantage to firms in higher-wage Portland UGB. Rather than reducing burdens for firms in surrounding areas that pay lower wages, the tiered policy has unintentionally placed them at a comparative disadvantage. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361113 |
| By: | Yeon-Koo Che; Julien Grenet; Yinghua He |
| Abstract: | This chapter surveys the application of matching theory to school choice, motivated by the shift from neighborhood assignment systems to choice-based models. Since educational choice is not mediated by price, the design of allocation mechanisms is critical. The chapter first reviews theoretical contributions, exploring the fundamental trade-offs between efficiency, stability, and strategy-proofness, and covers design challenges such as tie-breaking, cardinal welfare, and affirmative action. It then transitions to the empirical landscape, focusing on the central challenge of inferring student preferences from application data, especially under strategic mechanisms. We review various estimation approaches and discuss key insights on parental preferences, market design trade-offs, and the effectiveness of school choice policies? |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.20353 |
| By: | Drin, Svitlana (Örebro University School of Business); Zhuravlova, Anastasiia (National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy) |
| Abstract: | imely assessment of regional economic activity in Ukraine is severely constrained by institutional and data-related limitations. Official regional gross regional product (GRP) statistics are available only at low frequency, are published with substantial delays, and, in the post-2022 period, are further affected by disruptions to statistical production caused by martial law. At the same time, a growing set of potentially informative regional indicators derived from administrative records and official short-term statistics is available at higher frequencies but only over short and heterogeneous time spans. These features make the direct application of standard regional nowcasting models infeasible. This paper develops a mixed-frequency factor-augmented vector autoregressive framework tailored to the Ukrainian data environment and designed to incorporate short and incomplete regional indicators into the nowcasting of regional GDP. The model explicitly exploits the hierarchical structure of Ukrainian regional statistics by combining information from quarterly and annual measures of economic activity and by linking regional dynamics to national output developments. Short regional indicators are summarised through latent regional factors extracted using missing-data factor estimation techniques that are robust to ragged edges at both the beginning and the end of the sample. The proposed framework is implemented using Ukrainian macro-regional aggregates constructed from official data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the treatment of labour market indicators, housing price dynamics, and other short-term variables that exhibit discontinuities or limited availability. A pseudo-real-time nowcasting exercise shows that conditioning regional GDP nowcasts on factor information derived from short regional data improves predictive performance when contemporaneous national GDP estimates are not yet available. Once national aggregates are released, the marginal informational contribution of regional short-term indicators diminishes. Overall, the results demonstrate that mixed-frequency factor-augmented VAR models provide a coherent and empirically viable framework for regional GDP nowcasting in Ukraine. The approach is particularly well suited to data environments 1 characterised by short samples, publication delays, and institutional disruptions, and thus offers a valuable tool for real-time regional economic monitoring in periods of heightened uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | MF-FAVAR; FAVAR; Nowcasting; EMPCA; GRP; Google Trends |
| JEL: | C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2026–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2026_001 |
| By: | Chen, Luoye; Hou, Yun; Xiong, Xueshan |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the impact of migration flows induced by the hukou reform on agricultural innovation in terms of quantity and quality. Utilizing the 2014 hukou reform in China as a policy shock, we observe a 23.1% decrease in agricultural patent counts, with no significant effect on disruptiveness. This decline is primarily concentrated in urban areas and is reflected in a reduction in the extensive margin, specifically the number of active innovators. The decrease can be attributed to two interrelated mechanisms: the loss of skilled agricultural workers who possess critical tacit knowledge and a diminished entry of agribusiness due to resource reallocation. The findings highlight the unintended consequences of institutional policies, suggesting that urbanization initiatives may inadvertently impede agricultural technological progress when human capital externalities are insufficiently addressed. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361180 |
| By: | Geven, Koen Martijn; Tahir, Ayesha; Fasih, Tazeen; Qureshi, Javaeria; Hasan, Amer; Fazili, Sheena; Malik, Rabea; Macdonald, Kevin Alan David |
| Abstract: | Text and voice messages have emerged as a low-cost and popular tool for nudging recipients to change behavior. This paper presents findings from a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the impact of an information campaign using text and voice messages implemented in Punjab, Pakistan during the COVID-19-induced school closures. This campaign sought to increase study time and provide academic support while schools were closed and to encourage reenrollment when they opened, to reduce the number of dropouts. The campaign targeted girls enrolled in grades 5 to 7. Messages were sent out by a government institution, and the campaign lasted from October 2020 until November 2021, when schools had permanently re-opened. Households were randomized across three treatment groups and a control group that did not receive any messages. The first treatment group received gender-specific messages that explicitly referenced daughters in their households, and the second treatment group received gender-neutral messages. A third group was cross randomized across the first two treatment arms and received academic support messages (practice math problems and solutions). The results show that the messages increased reenrollment by 6.0 percentage points approximately three months after the intervention finished. Gender neutral messages (+8.9 percentage points) showed larger effect size on enrolment than gender-specific messages (+ 4.3 percentage points), although the difference is not statistically significant. The message program also increased learning outcomes by 0.2 standard deviation for Urdu and 0.2 standard deviation for math. The paper finds a small positive effect on the intensive margin of remote learning and an (equivalent) small negative effect on the intensive margin of outside tutoring. In line with similar studies on pandemic remediation efforts, the paper finds no effect of the academic support intervention on learnin g. The findings suggest that increased school enrollment played a role in supporting the observed increase in learning outcomes. |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11286 |
| By: | Evgenidis Anastasios; Fasianos Apostolos; Papapanagiotou George; Lazarou Nicholas Joseph (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the growing role of these technologies in enhancing productivity have attracted significant research and policy attention, yet the determinants of AI innovation remain relatively understudied. This study contributes to this emerging literature by examining the role of public R&D spending in fostering AI-related innovation across EU regions. Our analysis draws on bibliographic information from all patents registered at the European Patent Office (EPO) between 1980 and 2023. Using textual analysis of patent abstracts, we identify the share of AI patents among total patents and construct a novel dataset that allocates AI patents to NUTS-2 regions based on inventor addresses. This regional mapping enables us to assess the impact of public R&D funding on AI innovation while addressing endogeneity concerns by instrumenting regional public R&D spending with national defence-related R&D expenditure. The results show that public R&D plays a significant role in driving AI innovation: a 1% increase in public R&D spending raises AI patent output by approximately 0.27%. These findings speak directly to Europe’s innovation policy framework, providing evidence that public investment remains a powerful lever for stimulating AI development. They also reinforce the rationale for sustained funding under Horizon Europe, the Digital Europe Programme, and national innovation strategies aimed at building technological and reducing regional disparities in AI advancement. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202512 |
| By: | Vázquez Emmanuel Jose; Rodríguez-Castelán Carlos; Winkler Hernan |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the local impacts of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war across Mexican municipalities. Using detailed customs data on exports at the municipal level and US tariff data, we find that municipalities with exports more concentrated in products targeted by US tariffs on Chinese goods experienced significantly larger increases in exports to the US. A 1 percent increase in exposure to US tariffs on China led to a 4.3 percent increase in municipality-level exports to the US. These export gains were accompanied by improved labor market outcomes, including a 5.6 percent increase in total labor income and a 0.25 percentage-point reduction in labor informality. Effects were heterogeneous across skill levels, with only semi-skilled workers experiencing employment gains. These effects were mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sector, with some positive spillovers to services but none to agriculture. The findings show that changes in trade policies between major economies can influence the geographic distribution of economic activity and labor market outcomes within bystander countries. |
| JEL: | F14 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4843 |
| By: | Kengo IGEI; Hayato UMETANI; Yohei KOBAYASHI; Ryo TAKAHASHI; Makiko NAKAMURO |
| Abstract: | In recent years, efforts to promote Evidence-Based Policy Making (EBPM) have gained momentum at both national and local governments in Japan. However, the actual practices remain fragmented and vary significantly in content across municipalities. To realize effective EBPM, it is essential to concretely understand how evidence and EBPM are perceived and implemented within the policy making institutions. We conducted an exploratory analysis based on data collected through a web-based questionnaire survey targeting administrative officials in 21 local governments. We found considerable variation among officials in their understanding of evidence and EBPM, as well as in their engagement with EBPM-related activities. These differences are closely linked to prior experience with EBPM activities. Furthermore, a gap was identified between the types of information considered as “evidence†and the information referenced during policy making. Similarly, discrepancies were observed between conceptual understandings of EBPM and its practical application. Based on these results, we discuss the current status and future challenges of EBPM implementation in local governments. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25033 |
| By: | Surak, Kristin; Inkley, Johnathan |
| Abstract: | How do wealthy individuals use offshore financial structures like shell companies to protect personal assets? And how is such offshore wealth structuring itself variably organized? Moving beyond conceptualizations of offshore as concerning only individual tax havens, this article investigates offshore wealth structuring as a fundamentally relational practice to supply the first systematic image of the patterns between two key layers of offshore structures within a specific asset class. We analyze the overseas entities that hold expensive residential properties in the UK to make three contributions to debates around offshore. First, we identify a specific regional offshore circuit in its flows and magnitude by isolating two key layers, namely the entry layer, which is used to connect into the UK property market, and the action layer, which is used for the actual or projected appearance of managing the offshore structure. We next examine the interstices between these layers to reveal three patterns of offshore formations. These we term global funnel, selective gateway, and self‐stacker, and we discuss their implications. Finally, we offer indirect evidence of which jurisdictions people are more likely to choose for “brass plate” incorporation and which they employ for more complicated structuring, either in actuality or in appearance, which has implications for policymaking. By identifying significant variation in the interstitial patterns between jurisdictions, we not only pinpoint which jurisdictions are used in relation to others and to what extent, but also provide indirect evidence of how they are used differently and discuss why. Our findings supply a pioneering analysis of the scope, scale, and interstitial formations of the offshore structures that wealthy individuals use to hold personal property. |
| Keywords: | tax havens; inequality; wealth; offshore; elites; real estate |
| JEL: | E6 |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130696 |
| By: | Fossati Roman; Romero Agustina; Rachinger Heiko; Porto Natalia |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between tourism specialization and quality of life across Argentinean jurisdictions from 2009 to 2019. We construct multidimensional indicators for both tourism specialization—capturing two supply-side and one demand-side dimension—and quality of life, assessed across nine domains including economy, education, environment, and technology. To address complexity and unobserved heterogeneity, we apply principal component analysis and fixed effects panel data models. Our findings reveal a positive and heterogeneous association between tourism specialization and quality of life. Notably, the economic dimension is most strongly linked to tourism, particularly on the supply side, while health and environmental dimensions show the weakest associations. From a policy perspective, the evidence suggests that promoting tourism can play a significant role in fostering stronger economic outcomes, and that policymakers should prioritize supply-side instruments to support this goal. |
| JEL: | C01 C52 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4802 |
| By: | Minwoo Hyun |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer-employee data covering 1.35 million US workers separated from the fossil fuel extraction industry between 1999 and 2019, I estimate how local fossil fuel labor demand shocks affect employment and earnings. Employment probabilities fall markedly after exposure, and earnings decline gradually over the first seven years with only partial recovery by ten years since exposure to the shocks. Workers who remain in the fossil fuel sector, disproportionately men in sector-specific roles, experience nearly twice the earnings losses of those who switch sectors, possibly due to limited occupational mobility. Among non-switchers, losses are larger in labor markets with high employer concentration, indicating that scarce outside options translate into lower reemployment wages and weaker bargaining positions. Geographic movers fare worse than stayers, reflecting negative selection (younger, lower-earning) and relocation to metropolitan areas where fossil fuel or low-skilled service sectors remain highly concentrated, leaving monopsony power intact. |
| JEL: | Q32 R11 J31 J60 J42 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-76 |
| By: | Matthieu Mastio; Paul Saves; Benoit Gaudou; Nicolas Verstaevel |
| Abstract: | Industrial symbiosis fosters circularity by enabling firms to repurpose residual resources, yet its emergence is constrained by socio-spatial frictions that shape costs, matching opportunities, and market efficiency. Existing models often overlook the interaction between spatial structure, market design, and adaptive firm behavior, limiting our understanding of where and how symbiosis arises. We develop an agent-based model where heterogeneous firms trade byproducts through a spatially embedded double-auction market, with prices and quantities emerging endogenously from local interactions. Leveraging reinforcement learning, firms adapt their bidding strategies to maximize profit while accounting for transport costs, disposal penalties, and resource scarcity. Simulation experiments reveal the economic and spatial conditions under which decentralized exchanges converge toward stable and efficient outcomes. Counterfactual regret analysis shows that sellers' strategies approach a near Nash equilibrium, while sensitivity analysis highlights how spatial structures and market parameters jointly govern circularity. Our model provides a basis for exploring policy interventions that seek to align firm incentives with sustainability goals, and more broadly demonstrates how decentralized coordination can emerge from adaptive agents in spatially constrained markets. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.17979 |
| By: | McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland); Riva, Luca (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | After borrower-based measures (BBM) were introduced in Ireland in 2015, average house price growth expectations fell upon impact and remained stable over the following four to five years, even as price growth accelerated The right tail of extreme growth expectations also dropped immediately upon policy introduction and stabilised until 2019, consistent with credit limits playing a role in stabilising more extreme or optimistic expectations that can be particularly important in credit bubble formation. Our findings suggest macroprudential policies act as a "guardrail" that shifts forward-looking beliefs and contributes to macro-financial stability beyond the direct effects of these policies on the volume and riskiness of lending. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:stafin:12/si/25 |
| By: | Gutierrez-Lythgoe, Antonio; Molina, Jose Alberto |
| Abstract: | The transport sector remains one of the main contributors to global GHG emissions, making the shift toward more sustainable mobility a key component of climate-mitigation strategies. While previous research has emphasized the role of infrastructure, technology, and behavioral change, less is known about how public attention toward sustainable transport evolves and diffuses across countries. This paper uses Google Trends data as a high-frequency indicator of public interest in sustainable mobility for 38 OECD countries from 2004 to 2025. To ensure comparability across time and space, we propose the construction of log-ratios between sustainable mobility and conventional car-related searches so that the measure is robust to changes in Google’s user base. We apply the Phillips and Sul convergence framework to test whether attention levels follow common long-run trajectories. Results show strong convergence in electric-vehicle attention, while hybrid- and public-transport interest remain fragmented. Validation analyses confirm that Google Trends indicators correlate with subsequent electric-vehicle adoption, underscoring their value as dynamic proxies for cultural and behavioral dimensions of sustainable mobility. |
| Keywords: | sustainable mobility, Google Trends, convergence behavior, digital behavior, transportation policy |
| JEL: | C53 Q56 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126877 |
| By: | Aggarwal, Karan |
| Abstract: | Educational programs that aim to improve decision making and financial understanding are often designed around voluntary participation. The underlying assumption is that students who are interested, motivated, or capable will naturally choose to take part, allowing programs to identify talent and generate meaningful engagement. However, large scale evaluations of educational and financial literacy initiatives frequently report modest or uneven impact even when curriculum quality and institutional intent are strong. This raises a prior and less examined question: whether participation rules themselves influence who enters these programs and whose ability becomes visible. This paper examines how voluntary and mandatory participation structures shape selection, competition, and observed outcomes in school based decision making programs. The analysis draws on direct involvement in two contrasting initiatives conducted in an Indian secondary school between 2023 and 2025. The first was an eligibility based mandatory financial literacy program implemented through quizzes and structured group discussions. The second was a voluntary skill based competition that relied entirely on opt in participation. Rather than evaluating curriculum content or long term learning outcomes, the paper focuses on participation funnels, competition density, and patterns of performance that emerged under different institutional designs. Across both cases, participation appeared to impose non academic costs that varied significantly across students. These included fear of public underperformance, social exposure, and reputational risk. In the voluntary setting, students with low perceived cost of participation were more likely to opt in, while several capable students chose not to participate despite demonstrating skill in informal settings. As a result, competition was uneven and observed performance reflected the characteristics of those willing to enter rather than the underlying distribution of ability. In contrast, mandatory participation removed the initial decision to opt in and shifted attention toward performance once the activity began. Although not all participants were equally engaged, competition was deeper, outcomes were less predictable, and several strong performers emerged from students who had not previously been identified as high achievers. The comparison suggests that voluntary participation can unintentionally select for visibility rather than ability, while mandatory participation within a defined group can reduce self selection bias and allow latent capability to surface. This does not imply that compulsory participation is universally preferable or that motivation is irrelevant. Instead, it highlights how assumptions about rational self selection can fail in real educational contexts where social dynamics and perceived costs shape behavior. |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:edarxi:qmnfb_v1 |