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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Lagos, Francisco (University of Maryland at College Park); Saltmarsh, Jason (Old Dominion University); Liu, Jing (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how centralized-admission school lotteries affect between-school racial and ethnic segregation in the largest U.S. public school districts. Using original nationwide panel data and a difference-in-differences design with staggered adoption, the research analyzes effects on school composition, intergroup exposure, and distribution evenness. The findings reveal that centralized-admission lotteries led to increased White student enrollment in district schools and modest improvements in intergroup exposure. Black-White exposure rose by 1.6 percentage points and student of color-White exposure by 1.8 points. However, White students experienced reduced exposure to all racial and ethnic groups, with similar patterns for Black, Asian, and other students of color. While centralized lotteries modestly redistribute students, they do not significantly reduce overall segregation, challenging assumptions about equity-promoting reforms. These results underscore the need for complementary policies including weighted lottery designs, transportation subsidies, and targeted adoption to address the structural roots of school segregation. |
| Keywords: | school choice, centralized-admission lotteries, school segregation, student assignment |
| JEL: | I24 I28 J15 H75 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18306 |
| By: | Tobias R\"uttenauer; Kasimir Dederichs; David Kretschmer |
| Abstract: | Immigrant residential segregation can profoundly shape access to opportunities, immigrant integration, and inter-group relations. Yet we lack systematic evidence on how segregation varies across Europe, and what structural factors are associated with these patterns. This study addresses the gap by focusing on two questions: (i) how does immigrant-native segregation vary across urban areas in Europe, and (ii) which urban area- and country-level characteristics are consistently linked to segregation? Using harmonised 1x1 km grid-level data from the 2021/22 census, we calculate spatially weighted Dissimilarity Indices for all 717 Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) across 30 European countries. We combine these measures with rich data on demographics, the economy, housing, immigrant populations, and policy. To identify robust correlates of segregation, we apply a Specification Curve Analysis across 16, 164 regression models. Segregation is higher in Western and Northern Europe compared to most of Eastern and Southern Europe. Moreover, we show that segregation is heavily driven by macro-spatial dynamics between diverse urban cores and relatively homogeneous suburban areas. At the urban area level, segregation is systematically linked to the demographic composition and spatial distribution of the local population, economic conditions, housing market characteristics, as well as the composition of the immigrant population. At the national level, established immigrant destinations are more segregated, while migration and integration policies are not consistently linked to segregation. These findings offer the most comprehensive comparative assessment of immigrant segregation across Europe to date, revealing how structural conditions relate to spatial integration. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.17037 |
| By: | Paul Gertler; Marco Gonzalez-Navarro; Raimundo Undurraga; Joaquin A. Urrego |
| Abstract: | Slums are widely viewed as disadvantaged areas characterized by substandard housing and negative neighborhood spillovers that constrain local economic development. Governments typically respond with one of two place-based interventions: (a) in-situ upgrading that improves infrastructure and housing conditions within existing settlements, or (b) relocation of slum households to formal housing elsewhere in the city, freeing valuable urban land for alternative uses. We compare the direct effects and local spatial spillovers of these two approaches in Chile. We construct a 20-year national panel of slum polygons that integrates satellite imagery, census microdata, construction permits, administrative records, crime reports, and property-tax data. Using this dataset, we estimate how each policy affects the physical characteristics of slums and adjacent areas, and whether either intervention shifts the socioeconomic composition of residents. Our empirical strategy relies on Synthetic Difference-in-Differences for causal identification. We find that both policies reduce the share of land devoted to housing within the original slum perimeter — in-situ upgrading by reallocating land toward neighborhood infrastructure, and population relocation by reducing the number of slum households and housing structures. However, only in-situ upgrading generates durable improvements in housing quality and the socioeconomic status of residents. In addition, upgrading produces substantial positive spillovers in nearby neighborhoods, increasing formal housing investment and reducing crime. Moreover, administrative cost data show that in-situ upgrading is roughly one-third less expensive per household than population relocation, underscoring its greater cost-effectiveness. |
| JEL: | O18 R52 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34560 |
| By: | Massimo Anelli; Paolo Pinotti; Zachary Porreca |
| Abstract: | We document the transplantation of the Sicilian Mafia to the United States in the 1920s, when a large-scale repression campaign in Italy targeted Mafia strongholds and forced many Mafiosi to migrate, and study the resulting short- and long-term effects across neighborhoods in U.S. cities. Using newly linked administrative and historical data from the U.S. Census, Social Security records, and declassified files of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics, we show that neighborhoods hosting enclaves of migrants from Sicilian Mafia strongholds targeted by the repression later became centers of Italo-American Mafia activity. These neighborhoods experienced higher violence, incarceration, and financial exclusion in the short run, but higher income, employment, and educational attainment in the long run. The results suggest that while the arrival of organized criminal networks initially intensified conflict and exclusion, their subsequent consolidation generated localized economic benefits, helping to explain the long-term resilience and persistence of organized crime. |
| Keywords: | organized crime, migration, historical persistence, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | K42 F22 N32 R23 D02 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12364 |
| By: | Ozdogan, Selen (CUNY Graduate Center); Shih, Kevin Y. (University of California, Riverside) |
| Abstract: | Since 2022, New York City has received more than 200, 000 asylum-seekers from the southern border, many of whom were young children. Families were placed in homeless shelters, with children subsequently enrolled in nearby public elementary schools. Exploiting variation in homeless shelter capacity across school zones, we show that exposed schools saw increases in migrant students, proxied by English Language Learners, Hispanic students, and students in temporary housing. Despite these shifts, domestic students did not experience adverse impacts on enrollment, test scores, attendance, or chronic absenteeism. Progressive funding helped buffer schools against resource crowding, expanding English language instruction to accommodate newcomers. |
| Keywords: | asylum-seekers, education, immigration |
| JEL: | I22 I29 J60 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18339 |
| By: | Siu, Wai Yan; Rex, Sitti |
| Abstract: | Coastal flooding poses an escalating threat to communities across the U.S East Coast, where rising sea levels and intensifying storms increasingly overwhelm existing infrastructure and natural defenses. These events generate complex economic consequences that extend beyond immediate property damage to affect community stability and long-term development patterns. The real estate industry in particular, faces increasing levels of flood risk. Existing research on climate risk and real estate markets focuses predominantly on price capitalization effects, overlooking the critical dimension of housing market liquidity. This study examines the causal impact of coastal flooding on days-on-market (DOM), a metric of liquidity in the housing market. We use National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tidal data for coastal zip codes in the U.S. East Coast and information from the real estate market from 2017 to 2024. DOM and tidal flooding may be simultaneously affected by factors such as precipitation and mitigation policies, which raise concerns about endogeneity in estimation. We employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach to address these endogeneity concerns, using wind speed and direction as instruments. Our preliminary findings suggest that a one-percentage-point increase in flood exposure extends the DOM by approximately 0.86 to 0.99 days, 1.2% increase relative to the sample mean. When scaled across thousands of properties, these seemingly modest individual effects represent millions of dollars in delayed housing capital turnover and significant impacts on local tax bases. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360725 |
| By: | Boyce, Mckenzie |
| Abstract: | Despite growing emphasis on enhancing quality of life to attract residents as an economic development strategy, there is limited empirical evidence into which specific community characteristics households prioritize over others when making relocation decisions. This study investigates how a broad range of community attributes—identified through the Community Capitals Framework—influence household relocation decisions. Drawing on residential sorting models, this paper conceptualizes relocation as a utility-maximizing decision in which households weigh the expected utility of staying in their current location against that of moving to a new location. Households are assumed to relocate when the expected utility of the new location exceeds the utility of staying. Taking this conceptual framework to data, I model county-to-county migration flows based on differences in wages, housing costs, and local amenities of the destination and origin counties. Preliminary results suggest household migration increases to destination counties with higher broadband adoption, greater ethnic diversity, a higher natural amenity score, and greater voter turnout than the origin county. Migration decreases to destination counties with higher dollars lent locally, a greater labor force participation rate, and more social associations per capita than the origin county. Understanding which community attributes most influence relocation decisions is critical for policymakers and community leaders to effectively target investments that will attract new residents and foster community prosperity. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361119 |
| By: | Inoue, Atsushi (Nippon Institute for Research Advancement); Tanaka, Ryuichi (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This study investigated the effects of bullying victimization on cognitive, school engagement, and friendship outcomes using panel data collected from elementary school students in a Japanese city. Employing a value-added model that controls for prior outcomes, our findings revealed that bullying victimization significantly impairs both cognitive and school engagement and weakens friendship formation. Furthermore, a high prevalence of bullying victimization within the classroom was found to negatively impact cognitive outcomes in subsequent years. These findings underscore the importance of effective school bullying prevention in fostering human and social capital among school-aged children. |
| Keywords: | school engagement, academic performance, school bullying, friendship, Japan |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18318 |
| By: | Stefan Leknes (Statistics Norway); Jorn Rattso (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Hildegunn E Stokke (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Intangible capital, an asset class central to the knowledge economy, has been shown to contribute substantially to productivity growth. However, the importance for agglomeration economies has received limited attention. We examine how the agglomeration effect varies with industries’ intensity of intangible capital, combining international measures of industry-level intangible capital with rich Norwegian administrative employer–employee data. The analysis addresses methodological challenges related to endogenous intangible investment, unobserved worker characteristics, and correlation between worker moves and firm quality. We find that at mean intangible intensity, the elasticity of wages with respect to city size is 0.026, with each standard-deviation increase in intangible intensity raising the elasticity by 0.004. Dynamic wage returns to city-specific experience are also significantly higher in intangible-intensive industries. Employing the AKM framework and a complementary firm- based measure of local productivity, we show that our main results are robust to potential hierarchy effects arising from worker mobility. Moreover, we document that positive selection on unobserved ability into large cities is driven primarily by workers employed in intangible-intensive industries, irrespective of education level. We further document heterogeneity across intangible components, showing that agglomeration elasticities are strong for industries intensive in software and databases, and economic competencies. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of intangible capital investments in shaping urban wage premia. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration economies, knowledge spillover, intangible capital, AKM-model, sorting, worker experience |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:20425 |
| By: | Cunningham, Scott (Baylor University); Di Tommaso, Maria Laura (University of Torino); Melo, António (University of Turin); Mendolia, Silvia (University of Turin); Savio, Giulia (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | Bullying is a widespread form of aggression that emerges early in childhood and is common in school settings. Using Italian data from the National Institute for the Evaluation of Education and Training (INVALSI) on primary school students, we document gender differences in self-reported bullying, both as victims and perpetrators, across multiple dimensions. Bullying is more prevalent among boys on both fronts. Exploiting the quasi-random allocation of students to classes within schools, we show that a higher share of boys increases reported victimization among girls, particularly in forms such as mockery and verbal insults. These effects are associated with lower well-being among girls. The findings point to a spillover of violence from boys to girls as the share of male peers increases, highlighting the role of classroom gender composition in shaping early peer interactions and the need for caution when managing gender imbalances in elementary education. |
| Keywords: | violence, bullying, education, gender differences, primary school |
| JEL: | I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18332 |
| By: | Honey, Ummey; Cuffey, Joel; Hartarska, Valentina |
| Abstract: | Access to financial services is fundamental to economic stability and inclusion, yet many low-income and historically marginalized communities in the United States remain underserved. While alternative financial services (AFS), such as check cashers, payday lenders, pawnshops, rent-to-own stores, and auto title lenders provide short-term credit, they often charge high fees and interest rates hindering asset accumulation. A growing body of research suggests that the distribution of AFS providers is not random but instead reflects underlying socioeconomic and racial patterns. This study investigates whether the spatial distribution of AFS providers today aligns with the discriminatory neighborhood grading established by the Homeowners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) in the 1930s. HOLC’s color-coded maps rated neighborhoods from “A” (best) to “D” (hazardous), with “D” areas often inhabited by racial minorities systematically denied credit, a practice later termed as “redlining.” We use a Geographic Regression Discontinuity Design to compare the density of AFS outlets across boundaries between differently graded HOLC neighborhoods. In this study, we combine digitized HOLC maps for 200 cities with location data for AFS outlets and socioeconomic data from the American Community Survey, we find that AFS outlets are disproportionately clustered in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods and suggests persistent spatial disparities rooted in historical redlining. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361126 |
| By: | Ester Faia; Edward L. Glaeser; Saverio Simonelli; Martina Viarengo |
| Abstract: | What explains the dramatic differences in earnings across locations? We employ an administrative employer-employee linked dataset from Italy that includes the country’s entire workforce to estimate firm-worker or location-worker effects. We also estimate differences in human capital accumulation across firms and cities. We find that the elasticity of the location premia to density is smaller than in other settings and that other locational characteristics, such as segregation in school or the workplace and inter-generational mobility, are more strongly correlated with earnings and earnings growth. Our place-based estimates are similar if we focus on movers who were forced to relocate after the L’Aquila Earthquake. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that density levels jump up at the historic border between House of Savoy-ruled Piedmont and the Hapsburg Empire. Earnings today also jump at the border. This finding suggests that there may be some unintended effects of being a far-flung province of a distant empire, perhaps because of access to larger markets or the administrative and educational reforms that began under Empress Maria Theresa. |
| JEL: | J31 J61 N93 R10 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34582 |
| By: | Quaye, Leonard-Allen A.; Stewart, Shamar; Massa, Olga Isengildina |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how river-based transportation costs, particularly barge freight rates, influence corn basis along the Mississippi River. The corn basis (the difference between local cash and futures prices) captures key pricing dynamics affected by both local conditions and broader logistical networks. Using weekly data from 2014 to 2024, we apply a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with spatial and time fixed effects to account for both local and spillover effects across markets. Two model specifications are estimated: one assuming directionally constrained spatial spillovers, consistent with downstream trade patterns, and another allowing for unconstrained spatial interactions. The results show that an increase in barge freight rates is associated with a decline in the local corn basis, underscoring the negative impact of rising transportation costs on prices paid at origin. Moreover, significant spillover effects reveal that barge rate changes in one region affect basis values in adjacent markets, indicating that transportation shocks propagate spatially. The analysis also highlights how river navigability and localized energy price variation contribute to basis volatility, depending on how spatial relationships are structured. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of infrastructure, costs, and spatial connectivity in grain pricing. This research offers important insights for policymakers, producers, and traders seeking to manage transportation risks and improve market efficiency in the agricultural sector. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361205 |
| By: | Taylor, Laura O.; Phaneuf, Daniel J.; Liu, Xiangping |
| Abstract: | This research seeks to identify the impact of environmental contamination on residential housing prices separate from land use externalities associated with the contaminated sites. This is possible in an empirical model that considers the influence of uncontaminated commercial properties on home values concurrently with contaminated property influences. Our approach addresses an important source of omitted variable bias that has not been fully recognized in the literature, and it allows identification of stigma effects in a way not possible in past studies. We estimate difference-in-differences models that pool observations across a metro area and across time, as well as repeat sales models that rely on multiple transactions per home. Results indicate that environmental contamination more than doubles the negative influence commercial properties have on neighboring residential home values. Furthermore, we find little evidence of stigma effects once a contaminated site is remediated. The negative spillover effects associated with remediated contaminated sites are largely indistinguishable from the spillover effects from commercial properties with no known contamination. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cenrep:264975 |
| By: | Pietro Biroli; Amalia Di Girolamo; Giuseppe Sorrenti; Maddalena Totarelli |
| Abstract: | Educational disparities often limit students' access to relatable role models, constraining their aspirations and educational outcomes. We design and implement the Online Role Model Mentoring Program (ORME), a scalable, low-cost intervention connecting middle school students with successful role models from similar backgrounds. Using a randomized controlled trial with over 450 students in Campania, Italy, we find that ORME improves students' beliefs about the returns to effort, increases alignment between aspirations and expectations, and boosts school effort. Treated students also become more academically ambitious: they are more likely to enroll in academically oriented tracks and perform better on standardized language tests. These findings show that brief online mentoring sessions can have a meaningful impact on students’ attitudes and choices at a critical stage of schooling, highlighting a promising tool to support students in low-opportunity contexts. |
| Keywords: | role models, aspirations, mentoring, school interventions |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12342 |
| By: | Samuel Berlinski; Guillermo Cruces; Sebastian Galiani; Paul Gertler; Fabian Gonzalez |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of a large public expansion of pre-primary education in Argentina. Between 1993 and 1999 the federal government financed the construction of new preschool classrooms targeted to departments with low base- line enrollment and high poverty, creating roughly 186, 000 additional places. We link administrative records on classroom construction to four population censuses and estimate difference-in-differences models that compare treated and untreated cohorts across high- and low-construction departments. An additional preschool seat per child increases post-kindergarten schooling by about 0.5 years, raising the probability of completing secondary school by 11.9 percentage points and of enrolling in post-secondary education by 7.1 percentage points. For women, access to the program also reduces completed fertility: an additional seat lowers the number of live births per woman by 0.18, and we find no evidence that selective migration biases these estimates. We find little impact on labor-market outcomes at the census date, consistent with beneficiaries still being in school or in the early stages of their careers. A benefit-cost analysis based on the estimated schooling gains, standard Mincer returns, and observed construction and operating costs yields a benefit-cost ratio of about 11 and an internal rate of return of 13%. Our findings show that universal at-scale pre-primary expansions in middle-income countries can generate sizable improvements in human capital and demographic outcomes at relatively low fiscal cost. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J38 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34552 |
| By: | Yilin Hou; Lin Li; Lei Shao |
| Abstract: | Land-based revenues as a fiscal instrument to finance infrastructure tie public investment to real estate markets, where demand fluctuations cause fiscal consequences. This paper takes policy reversals as structural breaks and examines their impacts on infrastructure investment. We dissect China’s 2016 policy reversal that disallowed developers to finance land purchase with debt, causing sharp declines in local government land revenues, slashing their fiscal base for infrastructure investment. Using prefecture-level panel data and continuous difference-in-differences identification, we estimate the reversal reduced land-lease revenues by 55%. Two-stage least squares estimates suggest a 10% land-revenue decline translates into 6.6% investment reduction. Decomposing the funding sources show that 70% of the decline stems from contractions in local self-financing and borrowings by local financing vehicles, and resource reallocations within these financing vehicles amplify the impacts of the structural break. The lesson is: policy regime stability is vital to fiscal systems that rely on land-based revenues. |
| Keywords: | land finance, infrastructure investment, credit crunch, local government financing vehicles, implicit debt |
| JEL: | R14 R28 R31 R53 H74 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12356 |
| By: | Anger, Silke (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Christoph, Bernhard (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Galkiewicz, Agata (University of Potsdam); Margaryan, Shushanik (University of Potsdam); Sandner, Malte (Technische Hochschule Nürnberg); Siedler, Thomas (University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | Tutoring programs for low-performing students, delivered in-person or online, effectively enhance school performance, yet their medium- and longer-term impacts on labor market outcomes remain less understood. To address this gap, we conduct a randomized controlled trial with 839 secondary school students in Germany to examine the effects of an online tutoring program for low-performing students on academic performance and school-to-work transitions. The online tutoring program had a non-significant intention-to-treat effect of 0.06 standard deviations on math grades six months after program start. However, among students who had not received other tutoring services prior to the intervention, the program significantly improved math grades by 0.14 standard deviations. Moreover, students in non-academic school tracks experienced smoother school-to-work transitions, with vocational training take-up 18 months later being 5 percentage points higher—an effect that was even larger (12 percentage points) among those without prior tutoring. Overall, the results indicate that tutoring can generate lasting benefits for low-performing students that extend beyond school performance. |
| Keywords: | school grades, disadvantaged youth, randomized controlled trial, online tutoring, school-to-work transition |
| JEL: | C93 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18307 |
| By: | Christopher Campos; Jesse Bruhn; Eric Chyn; Antonia Vazquez |
| Abstract: | Public school choice has evolved rapidly in the past two decades, as districts roll out new magnet, dual-language, and themed programs to broaden educational opportunity. We use newly collected national data to document that opt-in (voluntary) systems: (i) are the modal design; (ii) are harder to navigate; and (iii) have participation that is concentrated among more advantaged students. These facts suggest a striking inconsistency: districts have largely adopted centralized assignment algorithms to broaden access, but most rely on optional participation that fragments public education. We study the implications of this design choice in the Los Angeles Unified School District, the largest opt-in system in the country, combining nearly two decades of administrative data, randomized lotteries, and quasi-experimental expansions in access. Participation is highly selective, consistent with national evidence, and lottery estimates suggest that the students with the lowest demand for choice schools are the ones who gain the most from attending. Opt-in participation therefore embeds a selection mechanism that screens out high-return students and leaves many effective programs with unused capacity. To evaluate system-level implications, we estimate a structural model linking applications, enrollment, and achievement. Choice schools are vertically differentiated and generate meaningful gains, but the opt-in participation rule—through high application costs and negative selection on gains—prevents these benefits from reaching the students who need them most. Counterfactual simulations make the design stakes clear: information and travel-cost reductions have limited effects, whereas reforms that change the participation architecture eliminate core inefficiencies and deliver the largest district-wide achievement gains. These results underscore that system design— not school effectiveness alone—shapes who benefits from public school choice and to what extent. |
| JEL: | I0 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34581 |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser; Martina Kirchberger; Andrii Parkhomenko |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the rebuilding of Ukrainian cities. We start by outlining key facts about Ukraine and its cities: (i) the country’s population is declining; (ii) there is a shift in demand for housing from east to west; (iii) Kyiv’s advantage is growing; (iv) house prices are rising in Kyiv and western cities, (v) Ukraine’s cities are slow and congested. We then present a theoretical framework for maximizing the benefits of Ukraine’s rebuilding effort to highlight the welfare effects of different allocations of post-war infrastructure. Finally, we consider the cost curve for reconstruction, as determined, in particular, by the cost of materials, labor, the industrial organization of the building industry and public practices in procurement and regulation. We highlight three broad strategies for shifting the cost curve: openness, standardization and investing-in-investing. We conclude by outlining areas for future research. |
| JEL: | F51 H54 O40 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34598 |
| By: | Banzhaf, H. Spencer; Mathews, William; Walsh, Randall |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between racial segregation and environmental equity in Pittsburgh from 1910 to 1940. Utilizing newly digitized historical data on the spatial distribution of air pollution in what was likely America’s most polluted city, we analyze how racial disparities in exposure to air pollution evolved during this period of heightening segregation. Our findings reveal that black residents experi- enced significantly higher levels of pollution compared to their white counterparts, and this disparity increased over time. We identify within-city moves as a critical factor exacerbating this inequity, with black movers facing increased pollution expo- sure. In contrast, European immigrants, who were also initially exposed to relatively high levels of pollution, experience declining exposure as they assimilate over this time period. We also provide evidence of the capitalization of air pollution into hous- ing markets. Taken as a whole, our results underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in discussions of racial and economic inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cenrep:347603 |
| By: | Montenovo, Laura |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343664 |
| By: | Patrick A. Testa |
| Abstract: | Elections select officeholders and policies, but they also signal to political actors where to invest their time and money. This paper presents a framework for understanding these effects, in which political investors (e.g., donors, activists) allocate resources where expected political fundamentals favor their party. Investors possess idiosyncratic local knowledge but also public information in the form of recent election results. These signals are complementary: where local knowledge is good, even the narrowest vote-share majorities can align beliefs and concentrate investment. I apply this framework to the changing political geography of the United States between 1940 and 1972, when urban and minority areas came into play for the Democratic Party. A regression discontinuity design based on close presidential elections shows that counties narrowly won by Democrats saw pronounced increases in Democratic local officeholding and voter support in subsequent election periods. This does not reflect direct impacts of presidential elections on local offices, but rather indirect shifts through political investment, including heightened activity in newspaper advertising, phone banking, and civil rights mobilization. Effects are concentrated in urban, Black, and union areas where dense organizational networks enhanced local political knowledge. Together, the findings show how elections organize political actors not only at the ballot box but through the information they convey. |
| JEL: | D72 J15 J18 N32 N42 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34585 |
| By: | Mallick Hossain; Igor Livshits; Collin Wardius |
| Abstract: | Lowering a borrower’s interest rate is one of the most effective ways to reduce a borrower’s debt burden. Mortgage refinancing offers a chance to shift debt balances from high-interest loans into a low-interest mortgage through “cashing out” some of the home’s equity. Using anonymized data on mortgage refinancing behavior, we find that over half of borrowers with high-interest loans and available home equity do not take advantage of their cash-out opportunities. While the cash-out “surcharge” can rationalize this pattern, we leverage a policy change at Fannie Mae that eliminated this surcharge for student-loan borrowers and find that the presence of a student loan does not significantly affect borrowers’ propensity to cash out. |
| Keywords: | mortgage refinancing; cash-out refinancing; student loans; cash-out sur charge; household finance |
| JEL: | D14 G51 G40 G53 |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102303 |
| By: | Kirschenmann, Karolin; Knebel-Seitz, Caroline |
| Abstract: | How do retirees choose among home equity release products? Despite housing wealth being households' largest asset, little is known about preferences for different equity release products. We conduct a survey experiment comparing home annuities, reverse mortgages, and an opt-out option among the German adult population. We find that presentation format (simultaneous vs. sequential) does not affect product choices. The majority of participants prefer no equity release product. Among those selecting equity release, home annuities are preferred over reverse mortgages. Individual characteristics, in particular risk tolerance, bequest motive, and financial literacy predict choices. The latter highlights the importance of consumer education given the complexity of these long-term financial decisions. |
| Keywords: | Equity release products, reverse mortgage, home annuity, retirement planning, financial literacy |
| JEL: | D14 G20 G51 G53 J26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:333933 |
| By: | Schmandt, Marco (Technische Universität Berlin); Tielkes, Constantin (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder); Weinhardt, Felix (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder) |
| Abstract: | Many studies exploit the random placement of individuals into groups such as schools or regions to estimate the effects of group-level variables on these individuals. Assuming a simple data generating process, we show that the typical estimate contains three components: the causal effect of interest, ”multiple-treatment bias” (MTB), and ”mobility bias” (MB). The extent of these biases depends on the interrelations of group-level variables and onward mobility. We develop a checklist that can be used to assess the relevance of the biases based on observable quantities. We apply this framework to novel administrative data on randomly placed refugees in Germany and confirm empirically that MTB and MB cannot be ignored. The biases can even switch the signs of estimates of popular group-level variables, despite random placement. We discuss implications for the literature and alternative "ideal experiments''. |
| Keywords: | refugee integration, peer effects, group assignment, random placement, random dispersal policy |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18319 |
| By: | Shuhei Kitamura; Nils-Petter Lagerlöf |
| Abstract: | The location of cities is linked to access to trade, but security also matters, in particular for capitals. Here we document this phenomenon, and explore its implications, in the context of Europe’s Great Power era. First we show that Great Power battles tend to occur in shortest-distance corridors between belligerent powers’ capitals, except where those corridors are intercepted by seas, mountains, and marshes. Then we show that capitals locate closer to each other when they have more of these types of geography between them. Finally, we show that city pairs are less likely to belong to the same state if they have more of this geography between them, allowing us to use geography to predict the territorial size and shape of Europe’s Great Powers. In sum, our results suggest that terrain which slows down military incursions makes capitals safer, allowing them to locate closer to each other; given all capitals’ locations, the surrounding geography then shapes the associated state territories. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1290 |
| By: | Mariluz Mate |
| Abstract: | Many empirical studies estimate causal effects in environments where economic units interact through spatial or network connections. In such settings, outcomes are jointly determined, and treatment induced shocks propagate across economically connected units. A growing literature highlights identification challenges in these models and questions the causal interpretation of estimated spillovers. This paper argues that the problem is more fundamental. Under interdependence, causal effects are not uniquely defined objects even when the interaction structure is correctly specified or consistently learned, and even under ideal identifying conditions. We develop a causal framework for firm-level economies in which interaction structures are unobserved but can be learned from predetermined characteristics. We show that learning the network, while necessary to model interdependence, is not sufficient for causal interpretation. Instead, causal conclusions hinge on explicit counterfactual assumptions governing how outcomes adjust following a treatment change. We formalize three economically meaningful counterfactual regimes partial equilibrium, local interaction, and network, consistent equilibrium, and show that standard spatial autoregressive estimates map into distinct causal effects depending on the counterfactual adopted. We derive identification conditions for each regime and demonstrate that equilibrium causal effects require substantially stronger assumptions than direct or local effects. A Monte Carlo simulation illustrates that equilibrium and partial-equilibrium effects differ mechanically even before estimation, and that network feedback can amplify bias when identifying assumptions fail. Taken together, our results clarify what existing spatial and network estimators can and cannot identify and provide practical guidance for empirical research in interdependent economic environments |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.00279 |
| By: | Matthew Freedman; Noah Arman Kouchekinia; David Neumark |
| Abstract: | The Opportunity Zone program was designed to encourage investment in distressed communities across the United States. Early research found no evidence of impacts of the program on employment, earnings, or poverty of zone residents, but some evidence of positive effects on employment among businesses in zones. Using the latest survey-based as well as administrative data, we adopt a longer-run and more comprehensive perspective on the labor market impacts of OZs. We find that OZ designation increases job creation among businesses within zones. However, a large share of the newly created jobs in zones is offset by declines in nearby low-income communities. While we detect gains in OZ resident employment over the longer run, the increase comes from jobs with workplaces outside of OZs that, in light of the changing demographic composition of zones, are likely held by new as opposed to existing residents. Overall, our results suggest that OZs have limited benefits for existing residents of targeted areas and are associated mainly with a spatial reallocation of jobs and households. |
| JEL: | J2 R1 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34589 |
| By: | Lang, Michaela; Clair, Amy; Page, Kira; Bonar, Gary; Newman, Joshua |
| Abstract: | This research examines changes in the short-term rental accommodation (STRA) market, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic. It explores landlords’ perceptions and the factors influencing their decisions to move properties into or out of the STRA market. The STRA market has expanded globally since the advent of platforms such as Airbnb. As popularity has surged, there has been a trend towards ‘non-hosted STRA’ – where an entire property is rented without the host present. Australia’s housing crisis has intensified pressure on policymakers to address the impact of STRA on housing affordability and availability – especially in tourist areas. To do this, it is critical to understand the changing dynamics of STRA. |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xefgd_v1 |
| By: | Anaya Dam; Guthrie Gray-Lobe; Michael Kremer; Joost de Laat; Karlijn Morsink |
| Abstract: | This study sequentially evaluates a soft-skills course implemented in Ugandan and Kenyan primary schools that replaced academic review time with lessons on goal-setting and related skills as students prepared for high-stakes primary school-leaving exams. An exploratory evaluation in Uganda provided evidence of positive impacts on girls’ test scores. A confirmatory evaluation in Kenya found that the course led to improvements in self-reported soft skills, especially among girls, although no gains in test scores. The study illustrates the utility of sequential evaluation, with exploratory analysis to identify promising hypotheses, followed by out-of-sample testing, as a tool to uncover heterogeneous effects. |
| JEL: | C18 C93 D91 I20 I21 I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34562 |
| By: | Trond Christian Vigtel (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how compositional changes among the unemployed and the matching efficiency in the labor market affects the matching process between establishments and job seekers in Norway. We use an aggregate matching function which takes into account dispersion across local labor markets, and allow for variation in search intensity among the unemployed. Using detailed micro-data on individuals and establishments for the period 2001–2024, we find that the decreasing matching efficiency in the labor market over the period 2007–2019 was driven by a increased dispersion of matching rates across local labor markets due to differential labor market conditions, and not a change in the allocation of unemployed across different local labor markets with inherently different matching efficiencies. |
| Keywords: | Matching Efficiency; Composition Effects; Vacancies |
| JEL: | J23 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1023 |
| By: | Wang, Yixuan |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343550 |
| By: | Vojtech Bartos; Ulrich Glogowsky; Johannes Rincke |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate that racial biases against tutors hinder learning. In e-learning experiments, U.S. conservatives are more likely to disregard advice from Black tutors, resulting in reduced performance compared to learners taught by white tutors. We show that the bias is unconscious and, consequently, does not skew tutor selection. In line with our theory, the bias disappears when the stakes are high. In contrast, liberals favor Black tutors without experiencing learning disparities. Methodologically, we contribute by using video post-production techniques to manipulate tutor race without introducing typical confounds. Additionally, we develop a novel two-stage design that simultaneously measures tutor selection, learning, and productivity. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, racial bias, learning, online experiment |
| JEL: | C90 D83 D91 J71 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12352 |
| By: | Grebol, Ricard (affiliation not available); Machelett, Margarita (Banco de España); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Villanueva, Ernesto (Bank of Spain) |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of intergenerational educational mobility and related distributional statistics in Spain. Over recent decades, mobility has risen by one-third, coinciding with pronounced declines in inequality and assortative mating among the same cohorts. To explore these patterns, we examine regional correlates of mobility, using split-sample techniques. A key finding from both national and regional analyses is the close association between mobility and assortative mating: spousal sorting accounts for nearly half of the regional variation in intergenerational correlations and also appears to be a key mediator of the negative relationship between inequality and mobility documented in recent studies. |
| Keywords: | assortative mating, intergenerational mobility, inequality, education |
| JEL: | I24 J12 J62 N34 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18351 |
| By: | Toshiyuki Uemura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes donation price competition between leader local governments with strong brand power and follower local governments with weak brand power, where multiple local governments offer similar local products as reciprocal gifts under the hometown tax donation (Furusato Nozei) system in Japan. We construct a strategic price competition model in which the strategic variables are donation prices and the timing of decision-making is sequential, with some governments acting first and others acting second in the presence of the brand externalities of reciprocal gifts. Based on a theoretical model grounded in household utility maximization and local governments' net donation revenue maximization, we formulate donation price reaction functions and demonstrate the policy implications for surplus through a comparative static analysis. To validate this theoretical model, we estimate donation demand functions using spatial econometric analysis. In an analysis targeting governments in Hokkaido offering reciprocal gifts with the well-known Hokkaido brand, the coefficients indicating complementarity between reciprocal gifts are significant due to brand externalities. Consistent with the theoretical model's assumptions, the empirical analysis also suggests the existence of leader governments, confirming the structure of strategic price competition, where the donation price of leader governments influences that of follower governments. The contributions of this study lie in its theoretical model of strategic price competition for the hometown tax donation system, comparative static analysis, and empirical verification of the existence of leader governments using spatial econometric analysis based on the haversine distance. We find that strengthening the brand power of reciprocal gifts is crucial for gaining a surplus. |
| Keywords: | Strategic price competition, Brand externalities, Spatial econometric analysis |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:305 |
| By: | Barbara Biasi; Minseon Park; John D. Singleton; Seth D. Zimmerman |
| Abstract: | School boards have statutory authority over most elementary and secondary education policies, but receive little attention compared to other actors in education systems. A fundamental challenge to understanding the importance of boards is the absence of data on the policy goals of board members—i.e., their ideologies—forcing researchers to conduct tests based on demographic and professional characteristics—i.e., identities—with which ideology is presumed to correlate. This paper uses new data on the viewpoints and policy actions of school board members, coupled with a regression discontinuity design that generates quasi-random variation in board composition, to establish two results. The first is that the priorities of board members have large causal effects across many domains. For example, the effect of electing an equity-focused board member on test scores for low-income students is roughly equivalent to assigning every such student a teacher who is 0.3 to 0.4 SDs higher in the distribution of teacher value-added. The second is that observing policy priorities is crucial. Identity turns out to be a poor proxy for ideology, with limited governance effects that are fully explained by differences in policy priorities. Our findings challenge the belief that school boards are unimportant, showing that who serves on the board and what they prioritize can have far-reaching consequences for students. |
| JEL: | H75 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34590 |
| By: | Alessandro Petretto |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2025_19.rdf |
| By: | Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdottir; Marco Francesconi; Ásthildur M. Johannsdottir; Gylfi Zoega |
| Abstract: | Leveraging administrative data from the University of Iceland, which cover more than 60% of the undergraduate population in the country, we examine how home exams and peer networks shape grades around the COVID-19 crisis. Using difference-in-difference models with a rich set of fixed effects, we find that home exams taken during university closures raised grades by about 0.5 points (approximately 7%) relative to invigilated in-person exams outside the pandemic period. Access to a larger share of high-school peers leads to an average grade increase of up to two-fifths of a point, and exposure to higher-quality peers yielded additional, but smaller gains. Interactions between peer-network measures and the COVID/home-exam indicators are near zero, providing no evidence that peer networks amplified home-exam gains during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | academic performance, online education, COVID-19, networks, academic dishonesty, Iceland |
| JEL: | I21 I23 J24 D85 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12367 |
| By: | Jiarui Nan (School of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TU, UK); Gurleen Popli (School of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TU, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of the urban-rural wage gap in China within the framework of segmented labour markets. Using nationally representative data from the China Family Panel Studies (2014–2022), we employ Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition at the mean, and Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regression across the wage distribution. A key contribution of this study is the use of alternative definitions of urban and rural status, based on hukou registration and geographic residence, allowing us to capture both institutional and spatial dimensions of inequality. The results show that mean wage disparities are largely explained by compositional differences, particularly in education and access to formal contracts, reflecting segmentation between distinct rural and urban labour markets. Yet rural workers also experience significant lower returns to education. Quantile decompositions reveal that the wage gap widens at higher percentiles, where unobserved or institutional disadvantages become more pronounced, for both men and women. Overall, the findings demonstrate that China’s urban-rural wage inequality reflects both unequal endowments and structural segmentation. The definition of “urban” and “rural” critically shapes interpretation and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | return to education, China, wage gap, regional differences, decomposition, recentered influence function, segmented labour markets |
| JEL: | J42 J24 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2025015 |
| By: | Borgonovi, Francesca (OECD); Checchi, Daniele (University of Milan); Gualtieri, Valentina (INAPP – Institute for Public Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates labour-market returns to formal and informal human capital in Italy using data from the first cycle of PIAAC. We distinguish formal inputs (years of schooling) from directly assessed skills (literacy and numeracy) which we interpret as distinct forms of human capital that are shaped by school quality and by non-formal and informal learning. To address non-random employment and joint endogeneity of schooling and skills, we combine a Heckman selection model with instrumental variables. Schooling is instrumented using cohort exposure to the 1971 introduction of full-day primary schooling and the 1999–2001 Bologna ‘3+2’ university reform; skills are instrumented using gender- and cohort-specific municipal illiteracy rates from population censuses, matched by birthplace. Results show that ignoring selection and endogeneity overstates the returns to schooling. After correction, numeracy yields the main wage premium, while formal credentials contribute little once skills are accounted for. The findings highlight the role of early cultural environments and skill accumulation for Italian wage inequality in Italy. |
| Keywords: | credentials, schooling, skill, Italy |
| JEL: | J24 I26 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18355 |
| By: | Poudel, Dixit; Gopinath, Munisamy |
| Abstract: | While road infrastructure is widely recognized as a driver of economic development, can it also aid in disaster resilience? This paper investigates whether India’s national highway corridors—the Golden Quadrilateral and the North-South and East-West—can buffer production losses from extreme floods in informal manufacturing. Motivated by a structural model of disaster resilience at the plant level, the study examines the effects of dual and staggered treatments: floods and roads. It combines geospatially matched, staggered flood exposure data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory with phased highway rollout timelines from the National Highways Authority of India and repeated cross-section survey data (1990–2016) on Indian informal manufacturing. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of flood exposure and road construction, the study implements a stacked difference-in-differences design, matching treated districts to future treated counterparts. Results show that floods significantly reduce both gross output and value added, while highway access counteracts those losses. Plants located directly on completed highway segments nearly neutralize the average 7 percent flood-related output loss, benefiting from both higher output and lower input expenditures—labor, materials, and energy. These effects are magnified for plants that own transport equipment, highlighting a complementarity between internal logistics and external infrastructure. Off-highway plants exhibit similar resilience only when they possess transport assets, enabling access to distant road networks. Overall, the findings reveal that roads are not only engines of development but also critical enablers of resilience. Designing infrastructure with this dual function—development and resilience—is essential for building a climate-smart and resilient informal production economy. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360978 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | The Forum of Ministers and High-level Authorities of Housing and Urban Development of Latin America and the Caribbean (MINURVI) is the region’s main intergovernmental coordinating body in the areas of housing, human settlements, and sustainable urban development. Its General Assemblies serve as key platforms for political dialogue, the exchange of experiences, and the development of a shared vision among member countries, in collaboration with international organizations, development banks, academia, and civil society. The XXXIII General Assembly of MINURVI was held on December 12 and 13, 2024 in the city of Belém do Pará, Brazil, under the pro tempore presidency of Brazil’s Ministry of Cities, led by Minister Jader Barbalho Filho, with the technical support of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN Habitat) in theirrole as co-technical secretariat. During this meeting, ministers, national authorities and experts from across the region addressed the strategic role of housing and urban development as engines to advance social inclusion, climate action and territorial resilience. The debates highlighted the need for adequate and up-to-date information for decision-making on housing policies, as well as the specific challenges of urban development in environmentally sensitive contexts such as the Amazon. The importance of guaranteeing the right to the city as a fundamental principle of the New Urban Agenda was highlighted, addressing the need to build more equitable, accessible and participatory cities. Likewise, the role of housing in the response to climate change, both in adaptation and mitigation, was underlined. Urban renewal and circular economy strategies were also discussed to promote a more efficient use of land and buildings, new financing schemes and more innovative and sustainable urban management. Access to adequate and sustained financing was identified as a central enabler for advancing transformative projects that integrate environmental sustainability, social justice, and economic development. Throughout the meeting, countries shared concrete experiences and public policy initiatives reflecting their commitment to more inclusive, productive, and resilient urbanization. The Assembly culminated in the adoption of the Belém Declaration, which includes the main agreements and commitments undertaken by the countries of the region centered around a common agenda regarding housing and urban development. In addition, the new MINURVI Executive Committee was elected, with Barbados assuming the presidency for 2025. |
| Date: | 2025–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col043:84347 |
| By: | Ryan, Alexander |
| Abstract: | To assist regulators and policymakers in monitoring climate-related risks in the financial system, I study whether banks are tailoring their mortgage lending strategy to manage the risk of rising occurrences of flood natural disaster events. Using a novel research design, this study seeks to determine whether financial institutions reduce financial exposure to communities with high flood disaster risk by either reducing residential mortgage originations, increasing mortgage sales, or increasing the share of higher-priced mortgages originated. My empirical strategy expands the existing literature which has not explicitly incorporated information from the frequency and magnitude of past flooding events on ex-ante flood risk within a county into the bank decision-making process. Results suggest that the average mortgage lender decreases acceptance rates, increases the sale of mortgages, and increases the origination of higher-priced mortgages in response to high flood risk. These results are most pronounced when considering nonlinearities in the number of recent floods and interactions with the magnitude of flood damage. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that commercial banks, originate-to-hold banks, and banks operating with lower financial stress have stronger responses to flood risk compared to credit unions, independent mortgage banks, originate-to-distribute banks, and banks with higher levels of risk. I support ongoing efforts by financial regulators to monitor climate-related financial risks which will become more poignant as the trend in climate-induced natural disasters increases over time. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360730 |
| By: | Simonato, Thiago; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Chepeliev, Maksym |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how recent and potential changes in U.S. trade policy affect regional economic performance, labor markets, and income inequality across Brazil, using an integrated global-subnational computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. The analysis combines the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model with Brazil’s highly disaggregated subnational TERM (The Enormous Regional Model), providing a novel methodological approach to capture detailed spatial and sectoral impacts of international trade shocks. Empirical findings reveal substantial regional heterogeneity in economic outcomes, with pronounced vulnerabilities in the North and Northeast, contrasting milder effects or even gains in more diversified southern regions. Labor market responses were similarly uneven, characterized by heightened informality and concentrated losses in high-skill, trade-dependent occupations. Agriculture, particularly soybean production, emerges as a critical transmission channel, reflecting Brazil’s deep integration into China-led global value chains. Income and consumption impacts are regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income households. These results underscore the importance of accounting for subnational heterogeneity and global value chain interactions when designing compensatory and adjustment policies. Effective policy interventions thus require spatially targeted mechanisms to mitigate adverse regional and distributional effects while leveraging strategic sectoral opportunities arising from trade realignments. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361031 |
| By: | Mikko Aaltonen; Martti Kaila; Emily E. Nix |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the impact of providing a guaranteed basic income on criminal perpetration and victimization. We analyze a nationwide randomized controlled trial that provided 2, 000 unemployed individuals in Finland with an unconditional monthly payment of 560 Euros for two years (2017-2018), while 173, 222 comparable individuals remained under the existing social safety net. Using comprehensive administrative data on police reports and district court trials, we estimate precise zero effects on criminal perpetration and victimization. Point estimates are small and statistically insignificant across all crime categories. Our confidence intervals rule out reductions in perpetration of 5 percent or more for crime reports and 10 percent or more for criminal charges. |
| JEL: | I38 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34547 |
| By: | Budría, Santiago (Universidad Nebrija); Martínez de Ibarreta, Carlos (Universidad Pontificia Comillas); Betancourt-Odio, Alejandro (Universidad Pontificia Comillas) |
| Abstract: | Reducing energy poverty is a critical priority for policymakers in both developed and developing nations. Immigrants are often considered a high-risk group due to their heightened vulnerability. While host language proficiency has the potential to mitigate energy poverty among immigrants by enhancing economic integration and facilitating access to essential information and services, its role remains largely unexplored. Using Australian data and addressing endogeneity concerns through a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) approach, this paper presents the first empirical analysis of host language proficiency as a determinant of energy poverty among immigrants. The results show that proficiency in the host language reduces the likelihood of experiencing multidimensional energy poverty by approximately 18.8 percentage points. This effect is partly driven by higher incomes and better access to social assistance among proficient immigrants. The findings underscore the importance of language skills in shaping energy poverty and highlight the need for language education to reduce economic disparities among immigrant populations. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty, immigrants, language skills, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | F22 I31 C36 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18312 |
| By: | Mauro Lanati; Giorgia Giovannetti; Lisa Grazzini; Annalisa Luporini; Michel Rizzo |
| Abstract: | This article examines how EU structural funds affect local labor demand. Using Lightcast granular data on online-job postings in Italy, we match quarterly information on EU project disbursements with variations in labor demand at NUTS-3 provincial level. By relying on a shift-share type of instrument, we find that EU structural funds have a positive effect on the number of job postings. The resulting impact is mostly driven by the European Social Fund (ESF) and is particularly strong on jobs that require green and digital skills. Moreover, the results suggest that the effect on labor demand manifests itself only in areas with middle-high socio-economic conditions, while it is not significant in poorest areas. From a policy perspective, our findings point to a negative role played by EU structural funds in reducing geographical disparities in terms of employment opportunities across Italian provinces. |
| Keywords: | EU Structural Funds; Labor Demand; Green and Digital Skills |
| JEL: | C21 F35 H23 H77 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2025_17.rdf |
| By: | Herings, P.J.J. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); van Ravenswaaij, Claudia (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:e1cbf68a-1c0d-40e3-bbcf-762ef9f28d59 |
| By: | Jeanne Bomare (Centre for the Analysis of Taxation, London School of Economics); Ségal Le Guern Herry (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | The 2014 Automatic Exchange of Information (AEoI) represents the most comprehensive global effort to combat tax evasion by enabling cross-border information exchange on financial assets. We examine how this policy shifted offshore investment behavior. While the AEoI mandates reporting of financial assets, it excludes real estate holdings. Using administrative data on UK real estate purchases by foreign companies, we show that offshore users substituted financial assets for real estate in response to the new transparency regime. Our findings suggest that real estate assets now account for a growing share of offshore portfolios, partly due to their exclusion from the AEoI. |
| Keywords: | Tax Enforcement, real estate, Hidden Wealth |
| JEL: | D31 R30 H26 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2523 |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | International migration policy for lower-income countries is still guided by assumptions from an earlier era—when less-educated labor was abundant, skilled emigration was seen purely as ‘brain drain, ’ and development was expected to reduce migration. That world is gone. This paper reviews recent research on migration policy in the 21st century, when demographic decline is making labor scarce globally, skilled emigration can yield net long- term gains for origin countries, and development often increases migration pressures for generations. The literature shows that migration, managed through innovative institutions, can sustain fiscal systems in aging economies, spur human capital investment at origin, and accelerate structural change. Migration is not a substitute for development, but a catalyst and major opportunity. Policy priorities include regional free-movement regimes, new destination-country partnerships, restructured skill-training systems for a mobile world, and integrating migration into aid partnerships. Much more research is needed to understand the impacts of these tools. |
| Keywords: | brain drain, skills, irregular, asylum, aging, demographic, development, emigration, immigration, migration, Africa, refugee, workforce |
| JEL: | F22 F24 F35 F65 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18308 |
| By: | Abi Adams; Oğuz Bayraktar; Thomas H. Jørgensen; Hamish Low; Alessandra Voena |
| Abstract: | Joint custody following divorce is widespread, but implementation is costly when individuals live in different states and so affects interstate mobility. Migration of separated fathers has fallen significantly more than that of married fathers. We show the causal effect of joint custody using two strategies. First, we survey separated parents to elicit beliefs about the likelihood of interstate moves. Second, we use the staggered adoption of joint custody laws across US states, and show a reduction in actual migration of 11 percentage points for fathers. For mothers, there is no impact on mobility but suggestive evidence of beneficial labor market outcomes. |
| JEL: | J12 J6 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34571 |
| By: | Marianne Bitler; Jason B. Cook; Chloe N. East; Sonya R. Porter; Laura Tiehen |
| Abstract: | Take-up of means-tested transfer programs in the United States remains incomplete despite their substantial value to eligible households. We contribute to the literature on determinants of program participation by providing the first causal estimates of how proximity to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) offices affects program participation. Using administrative data on SNAP receipt in a single state linked to geocoded office locations, we exploit quasi-experimental variation from frequent office openings and closings. Event study estimates show that SNAP participation in a census tract decreases following the closure of an office by 7–9 percent over two years, with suggestive evidence of increases in participation following office openings. These effects are concentrated in urban areas and are robust to alternative specifications and tests of endogeneity in changes in office placement. |
| JEL: | H53 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34529 |
| By: | Chakraborty, Judhajit; Bayham, Jude; Goemans, Christopher; Manning, Dale; Muriqi, Dielza; Suter, Jordan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the labor market impact of flood exposures using county-level quarterly employment and wage data from 1996-2023 for the contiguous US. We distinguish between flash floods with sudden, rapid and violent onset and floods with gradual, slower onset patterns. Our results show that an additional day of flash floods in a quarter reduces county-level employment and wages by 0.13% and 0.15% respectively. These sub-annual effects dissipate at annual frequencies, suggesting possible labor market adjustments that occur over time. Importantly, we document events occurring during federally declared emergency periods have an attenuated labor market impact compared to events outside of federally declared periods. Other heterogeneous effects reveal that economically vulnerable counties such as those with high labor market slack, experience substantially larger negative impacts from both flood types. While coastal counties face larger impacts, inland counties also suffer negative economic disruptions. Our findings uncover important sub-annual labor market disruptions that vary strikingly by local economic conditions and policy responses. Identifying these sub-annual labor market impacts could be crucial for understanding economic welfare losses and designing or improving rapid policy responses. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360981 |
| By: | Kropp, Jaclyn D. |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343601 |
| By: | Hillenbrand, Tobias (RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance) |
| Abstract: | The correlation between rising asylum immigration and the electoral success of far-right anti-immigration parties has sparked concerns about a potential “Democratic Dilemma” – namely, a trade-off between a country’s openness to immigrants and the preservation of democratic institutional quality. Against this backdrop, I investigate the nature of the backlash to asylum immigration and analyze the potential of an “Orderly Admission Reform” to restore public acceptance for refugee protection. The data comes from an original large-scale online survey experiment conducted in Germany, Europe’s largest refugee-receiving country, where public sentiment changes have been particularly pronounced. My results reveal a “Principle-Practice” gap: while most Germans remain committed to refugee protection in principle, they express dissatisfaction with how the asylum system functions in practice. Qualitative analysis suggests that although there are concerns about the overall size of the refugee population, respondents take greater issue with the association between asylum immigration and irregular immigration. A reform proposal that aims to close irregular pathways for asylum seekers while simultaneously scaling up orderly admissions of recognized refugees enjoys broad public support. Support levels can be further boosted by embedding the proposal description in a prime that highlights aspects of improved control and management. Findings from a conjoint experiment further indicate that respondents favour policies aimed at shifting from irregular toward orderly immigration pathways, rather than endorsing the most restrictive policy options. Support for the reform proposal is remarkably consistent across diverse societal groups – including some that are typically highly polarized on immigration issues. |
| JEL: | O15 A13 D63 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025026 |
| By: | Aiyar, Anaka; Butt, Daniyal; Lacy, Katherine; Mukhopadhyay, Sankar |
| Abstract: | The USDA considers broadband access a “modern-day necessity”. However, 22.3% of Americans in rural areas lack high-speed broadband access. In this study, we analyze the impact of four broadband speed expansion programs across the United States. Between 2010 and 2020, the Telecom Infrastructure Borrowers program began offering loans to state and local governments and local organizations to expand broadband infrastructure to underserved telecommunication areas, rural areas, and towns with a population of less than 5000. The Community Connect grants that started in 2013 focused on improving infrastructure to increase broadband speeds in underserved and rural areas. The Farm Bill and the ReConnect program directed funds towards infrastructure expansions in underserved areas across the United States. We construct a unique census tract level panel for the years 2014-2021, with information on loans and grants received by rural areas for broadband expansion from the USDA Rural Development online web maps and FCC broadband speeds data on the census tract level. Then we use this data and a staggered difference in difference approach to identify the effects of funding access on broadband outcomes. Our results show that overall, these programs (primarily driven by the Infrastructure Borrowers) increased median download speeds by around 2 Mbps (or about 0.15 SD) per year. However, our results also suggest that the parallel trends assumption, which is necessary for a causal interpretation of DD estimates, does not hold for any of the programs. We then use a newly developed method that allows us to construct confidence intervals of treatment effects that are robust to the violation of the parallel trend assumption. Using these confidence intervals, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the treatment effect is zero. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361124 |
| By: | Felbermayr, Gabriel; Hinz, Julian; Krantz, Sebastian; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Wanner, Joschka |
| Abstract: | How do adverse global trade shocks affect sub-national outcomes, and what insurance does regional integration provide? We study the EU Single Market using a large-scale quantitative trade model with regional labour mobility, calibrated to a new NUTS2- based Regionalized Inter-Country Input-Output (REICIO) database. Comparing four baselines, from a fully frag-mented Europe to deep integration, we evaluate the 2025 US tariffs. Full integration of EU goods and labour markets reduces the average regional loss in real value added per capita by about 25% and more than halves its dispersion. Further deepening barely improves the mean but compresses the distribution of regional impacts even further. |
| Keywords: | Global Trade Wars, MRIO, ICIO, European Regions, NUTS2, Global Value Chains, Sectoral Mobility Frictions, Trade Integration |
| JEL: | F15 F16 F17 R15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:334528 |
| By: | Arora, Prateek; Choo, Dongwan; Hu, Chenyue |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt6n3095x8 |