|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Guillaume Cousin; Christine Frayne; Vítor Dias Martins; Bořek Vašíček |
| Abstract: | House prices have risen sharply across the European Union over the past decade, following cycles of boom, correction, and renewed growth, with recent increases driven by structural factors. This has outpaced income growth and reduced affordability, particularly in the context of higher interest rates, while underdeveloped rental markets often fail to provide effective alternatives. Housing demand is influenced by incomes, wealth, demographics, and mortgage conditions, with wealthier households and investors playing a growing role. Urbanisation, migration, and changing family structures continue to amplify pressures in cities with limited supply. At the same time, shifts in preferences, the rise of short-term rentals, and institutional investors have added to demand in specific markets, while climate risks are increasingly priced into assets. On the supply side, new construction has lagged behind demand due to regulatory barriers, sector inefficiencies, and labour shortages, with renovation often prioritised over building. Rising land prices, concentrated ownership, and restrictive zoning further constrain supply. Addressing affordability requires a comprehensive policy mix, balancing direct housing interventions with broader fiscal, macroprudential, and environmental measures. Evidence suggests supply-side reforms—such as land-use changes, social housing investment, and infrastructure improvements—are more effective than demand-side subsidies, which tend to inflate prices. Other tools, including rent regulation, taxation, and macroprudential measures, involve tradeoffs and distributional impacts. Given the complexity of housing policy and its multi-level governance, tailored approaches at EU, national, and local levels are essential. |
| JEL: | G51 R21 R31 R52 R5 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:dispap:228 |
| By: | Rainald Borck; Matthias Kalkuhl; Kai Lessmann |
| Abstract: | The work-from-home (WFH) revolution is reshaping economic activities and location choices with potentially important implications for environmental pollution. We use a quantitative spatial model calibrated to the German economy to assess the effects of increasing WFH from pre- to post-pandemic levels on pollution from commuting, residential and office buildings, and industrial production. We find that residential population moves from large cities to suburbs and smaller cities, while jobs concentrate in urban centers. A decrease in equilibrium commuting frequency by 18 percentage points reduces nation-wide emission of particulate matter (PM2.5) by 1.9% and carbon dioxide emissions by 2.2%. Commuting emissions decrease by 20.2% – despite a substantial rebound effect induced by a 9% increase in commuting distances. Residential emissions barely change, while there is a shift from on-site to remote office emissions. Pollution falls most strongly in rural counties and least in dense urban ones. |
| Keywords: | work from home, pollution, commuting, energy use |
| JEL: | Q53 Q54 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12300 |
| By: | Justin Tyndall (University of Hawai‘i at MÄ noa, University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization); Limin Fang (University of Hawai‘i at MÄ noa, Department of Economics); Emi Kim (University of Hawai‘i at MÄ noa, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We test whether new condominium construction generates vacancies in a local housing market through induced moves. Using detailed address-history microdata, we track households who moved into a newly built 512-unit condominium tower in Honolulu, Hawai'i, which included both market-rate and incomerestricted units. We identify prior addresses and follow vacancy chains across multiple rounds of moves. The vacated homes were substantially cheaper than the new units and spanned diverse locations and housing types. Income-restricted units produced fewer secondary vacancies, but those vacancies were concentrated at lower price points. Our results show that new condominium construction eases supply constraints and expands affordability in a local housing market, and the contrast between market-rate and income-restricted units has important implications for inclusionary zoning policies. |
| Keywords: | Housing supply, Urban development, Land-use regulation, Filtering |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2025-3 |
| By: | Khaliliaraghi, Negar (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | The affordability and stability of housing are key determinants of economic wellbeing, but their effects on the academic success of university students remain underexplored. This paper investigates the causal effect of early access to affordable student housing on academic performance using a unique lottery-based allocation system in Sweden. The findings show that early access to student housing significantly improves students’ academic performance, with grades increasing by 28% of a standard deviation, and students being 33% more likely to rank in the top 5% of their class. The results suggest that housing stability allows students to focus more on their studies, reducing the need for employment and long commutes. |
| Keywords: | Student Housing; Higher Education; Test Scores |
| JEL: | C93 I21 I23 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_023 |
| By: | Tomoya MORI |
| Abstract: | This study presents a microeconomic framework explaining the formation, size variation, and spatial arrangement of cities. Differences in firm market areas across industries and the tendency of firms to co-locate to gain mutual benefit from a shared consumer base generate a nested core-periphery structure, where cities of varying size and industrial diversity encompass one another. This approach allows for analysis of how changes in population and other fundamental economic conditions affect regional structure. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25017 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the design, implementation, and outcomes of the State Program for the Socio-Economic Development of the Regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the country's most comprehensive long-term development initiative spanning 2004-2023. Drawing on official statistical data and fiscal records, the paper evaluates four consecutive program cycles and complementary urban development schemes to determine their effectiveness in promoting balanced regional growth, reducing spatial disparities, and fostering economic diversification. Findings reveal that despite cumulative investments of approximately 92.2 billion Azerbaijani manats, regional inequality has not diminished. Economic activity remains overwhelmingly concentrated in the Baku-Absheron area, which generates over 80 percent of GDP while covering just 2.5 percent of the country's territory. The analysis demonstrates that regional policy outcomes have closely followed the cyclical pattern of hydrocarbon revenues, with the bulk of financing disbursed during oil-boom periods. The study also identifies the persistent procyclical character of public expenditure, weak institutional decentralization, and limited private sector engagement as key constraints undermining the program's developmental impact. The paper concludes that Azerbaijan's regional development strategy has achieved partial infrastructural improvements but failed to alter the highly centralized spatial structure of its economy. Future policies should prioritize institutional reforms, fiscal diversification, and enhanced regional autonomy to ensure inclusive, sustainable, and post-oil development |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Regional Development, Spatial Inequality, Resource Dependence, Oil Revenues, Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Diversification, Development Policy, Development Policy, State Programs |
| JEL: | R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:333327 |
| By: | Yasmine Elkhateeb; Riccardo Turati; Jérôme Valette |
| Abstract: | Does immigration challenge the identities, values, and cultural diversity of receiving societies? This paper addresses this question by analyzing the impact of immigration on cultural diversity in Europe between 2004 and 2018. It combines regional cultural diversity indices derived from the European Social Survey with immigration shares from the European Labor Force Survey. The results indicate that immigration increases the salience of birthplace identity along cultural lines, fostering a shift toward nativist identities among the native population. These identity shifts, in turn, trigger a process of cultural homogenization among natives. This effect is stronger in regions receiving culturally distant immigrants. It reflects a process of convergence toward the values of highly skilled liberal natives and divergence from those of low-skilled conservative immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Immigration;Social Identity;Cultural Diversity |
| JEL: | F22 D03 D72 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-18 |
| By: | Corradin, Stefano; Fillat, José L.; Vergara-Alert, Carles |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of systematic household misestimation of home prices on financial decisions, including stockholdings, consumption, and asset allocation. Using exogenous variation in house values, mortgage debt, and homeowner misestimation identified through differences in local housing market characteristics, we find that a $60, 000 increase in house overvaluation (approximately one standard deviation) results in a 1.1 to 1.9 percent decrease in risky stockholdings, a 1.5 to 4.3 percent increase in consumption, and a 1.3 to 2.5 percent increase in the share of risk-free assets over liquid wealth. The results highlight the need to better understand how housing wealth and beliefs about house values affect portfolio choice, spending, and overall household finance. JEL Classification: G11, D11, D91, R21, C61 |
| Keywords: | household finance, housing, misestimation, portfolio choice |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253163 |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline PhD; Zhang, Yunwan; Harold, Brian S.; Drake, Christina PhD |
| Abstract: | People with low incomes often face difficulties traveling because of a dearth of affordable and reliable transportation modes, and this has profound quality-of-life implications. In this longitudinal partial randomized controlled trial of universal basic mobility wallets, the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro) provided nearly 1, 000 residents with prepaid debit cards loaded with $150 in transportation funds per month for 12 months beginning in May 2023. These could be used to pay for local and regional transit, carsharing, car rentals, ridehailing, bicycle/scooter sharing, and merchandise purchased at local bicycle shops. Analysis of surveys before and during the pilot showed a significant increase in transportation security (p |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Mobility, Travel behavior, Accessibility, Shared mobility, Pilot studies, Surveys, Transportation Equity |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7rc1x58z |
| By: | Kengo IGEI; Makiko NAKAMURO; Tomoya MURAKAWA; Quang Chien LE |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the causal impact of deploying part-time subject-specialist teachers in elementary schools on students’ academic outcomes, drawing on a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in Chiba Prefecture, Japan. In schools randomly assigned to receive part-time science specialists, students’ science achievement increased by 0.153–0.162 standard deviations (SD), which is a relatively large effect compared to many other educational interventions such as class size reduction. Moreover, mathematics achievement improved by 0.101–0.108 SD, while Japanese language achievement remained unaffected. In contrast, the deployment of part-time mathematics specialists had no statistically significant effect on student performance. There is no evidence that the introduction of part-time subject-specialists altered teachers’ classroom preparation time for other subjects. Science is a subject that demands a high level of content expertise, and prior studies indicate that as teachers gain more experience, their anxiety in teaching science decreases, while their self-efficacy increases. Given that the assigned specialists were relatively older and experienced part-time teachers, the results suggest that leveraging their expertise and confidence may have contributed to the observed academic gains. The findings highlight the potential of strategically utilizing experienced specialist teachers to improve science education in the upper grades of elementary school. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25029 |
| By: | Kengo IGEI; Makiko NAKAMURO; Tomoya MURAKAWA; Quang Chien LE |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the causal impact of deploying part-time subject-specialist teachers in elementary schools on students’ academic outcomes, drawing on a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in Chiba Prefecture, Japan. In schools randomly assigned to receive part-time science specialists, students’ science achievement increased by 0.153–0.162 standard deviations (SD), which is a relatively large effect compared to many other educational interventions such as class size reduction. Moreover, mathematics achievement improved by 0.101–0.108 SD, while Japanese language achievement remained unaffected. In contrast, the deployment of part-time mathematics specialists had no statistically significant effect on student performance. There is no evidence that the introduction of part-time subject-specialists altered teachers’ classroom preparation time for other subjects. Science is a subject that demands a high level of content expertise, and prior studies indicate that as teachers gain more experience, their anxiety in teaching science decreases, while their self-efficacy increases. Given that the assigned specialists were relatively older and experienced part-time teachers, the results suggest that leveraging their expertise and confidence may have contributed to the observed academic gains. The findings highlight the potential of strategically utilizing experienced specialist teachers to improve science education in the upper grades of elementary school. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25111 |
| By: | Tomoya MORI |
| Abstract: | Building on Story 3, which demonstrated how cities emerge as population agglomerations in a regional economy with industries exhibiting varying returns to scale—resulting in city size disparities and the emergence of nested core-periphery structures—this paper (Story 4) assumes that the returns to scale across industries follow empirical distributions. We show, in a theoretical model, how such nested structures can reproduce self-similar patterns consistent with the power-law distribution observed in city populations. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25018 |
| By: | Cohen, Adam; Shaheen, Susan A. |
| Abstract: | Advanced air mobility, also known as AAM, is a broad concept focusing on emerging aviation markets and use cases for on-demand aviation in urban, suburban, and rural communities (Cohen et al., 2024). AAM includes local use cases of about an 80 km radius in rural or urban areas and intraregional use cases of up to approximately 500 km. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9v88s6pr |
| By: | Guy Tchuente |
| Abstract: | Many public services are produced in networked systems where quality depends on local effort and on how higher-level authorities monitor providers. We develop a simple model in which monitoring is a public good on a network with strategic complementarities. A regulator chooses between decentralized monitoring (cheaper, local oversight) and centralized monitoring (more costly, but internalizing spillovers). The model delivers an endogenous centralization threshold: for a given spillover strength, there exists a network size $n^\ast(\lambda)$ above which centralized monitoring strictly dominates; equivalently, for a given network size $n$, there is a critical complementarity $\lambda^\ast(n)$ beyond which decentralized oversight becomes fragile. A stochastic extension suggests that, above this region, idiosyncratic shocks are amplified, producing stronger peer correlations, higher variance, and more frequent deterioration in quality. We test these predictions in the U.S. nursing home sector, where facilities belong to overlapping organizational (chain) and geographic (county) networks. Using CMS facility data, We document strong within-chain and within-county peer effects and estimate network-size thresholds for severe regulatory failure (Special Focus Facility designations). We find sharp breakpoints at roughly 7 homes per county and 34 homes per chain, above which spillovers intensify and deficiency outcomes become more dispersed and prone to deterioration, especially in large counties. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.23320 |
| By: | Lozano, Francisco Javier |
| Abstract: | This study presents causal evidence elucidating the impact of urban regulations on housing prices through two opposing mechanisms: land value capitalization and construction cost efficiencies. Utilizing instrumental variables and transaction-level data, the research reveals that a 1% increase in building height results in a 0.10% reduction in prices, whereas the floor-area ratio leads to a 0.25% increase. Additionally, density (-0.16%) contributes to price reductions, aligning with efficient land utilization, while lot coverage operates as a price-increasing variable (0.13%). These effects demonstrate significant heterogeneity across urban contexts, with complete sign reversals contingent upon location and income. For example, the price-reducing effect of height is predominantly observed in low-value land and areas with high accessibility, yet it reverses to a price-increasing effect in peripheral locations. The study identifies notable complementarities among regulations, emphasizing developers’ strategic packaging of norms, particularly in the triple interaction between height, lot coverage, and floor-area ratio. The findings challenge uniform regulatory approaches, suggesting that policies aimed at affordability should advocate for strategic combinations of height and density, tailored to local market contexts. |
| Keywords: | Urban economics, Housing prices, Land-use regulation, Causal inference |
| JEL: | R14 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127133 |
| By: | Giuseppe Simone |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the structural foundations of regional productivity divergence in Italy through the lens of economic complexity. Leveraging a newly constructed Economic Complexity Index (ECI) at the NUTS-3 level, we examine how the sophistication and diversity of local productive structures shape long-run productivity trajectories of Italian provinces over the period 2000–2021. Empirical approach combines panel data models with instrumental variable (IV-GMM) techniques, spatial econometrics, and simultaneous equation systems (3SLS) to capture the direct, spatial, and bidirectional relationships between complexity and productivity. The findings reveal that economic complexity is a robust and consistent predictor of regional labour productivity. This association is particularly strong in Northern provinces, where institutional density and in- novation ecosystems amplify the returns to complexity, and where spatial spillovers from neighbouring territories enhance local outcomes. In contrast, Southern regions experience lower returns and limited externalities, reflecting persistent development traps. Crucially, I provide the first integrated empirical evidence of a cumulative, self-reinforcing loop between complexity and productivity: more complex regions become more productive, and more productive regions are better equipped to diversify into complex activities. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2536 |
| By: | Cruz, Ronize (University of Coimbra); Nobre, Francisco (Kingston University London); Pereira dos Santos, João (ISEG) |
| Abstract: | We analyze how the proliferation of short-term rentals (STRs) affects firm survival, performance, and entry in two European cities with high STR density. Using administrative firm-level accounting data, a shift-share instrument, and an event-study design, we find that STR growth increases exit rates among underperforming firms, while surviving firms experience relative gains in sales and profits, with minimal effects on employment or investment. Operational costs, particularly rents and liabilities, also rise. STR expansion stimulates entrepreneurship, though new entrants face higher costs and lower initial profitability. These findings underscore the nuanced impacts of tourism-driven demand shocks on urban economic ecosystems. |
| Keywords: | tourism, local businesses, short-term rentals, Portugal |
| JEL: | R12 L25 L83 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18295 |
| By: | Willem P Sijp |
| Abstract: | Australian house prices have risen strongly since the mid-1990s, but growth has been highly uneven across regions. Raw growth figures obscure whether these differences reflect persistent structural trends or cyclical fluctuations. We address this by estimating a three-factor model in levels for regional repeat-sales log price indexes over 1995-2024. The model decomposes each regional index into a national Market factor, two stationary spreads (Mining and Lifestyle) that capture mean-reverting geographic cycles, and a city-specific residual. The Mining spread, proxied by a Perth-Sydney index differential, reflects resource-driven oscillations in relative performance; the Lifestyle spread captures amenity-driven coastal and regional cycles. The Market loading isolates each region's fundamental sensitivity, beta, to national growth, so that a city's growth under an assumed national change is calculated from its beta once mean-reverting spreads are netted out. Comparing realised paths to these factor-implied trajectories indicates when a city is historically elevated or depressed, and attributes the gap to Mining or Lifestyle spreads. Expanding-window ARIMAX estimation reveals that Market betas are stable across major shocks (the mining boom, the Global Financial Crisis, and COVID-19), while Mining and Lifestyle behave as stationary spreads that widen forecast funnels without overturning the cross-sectional ranking implied by beta. Melbourne amplifies national growth, Sydney tracks the national trend closely, and regional areas dampen it. The framework thus provides a simple, factor-based tool for interpreting regional growth differentials and their persistence. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.01139 |
| By: | Jan Bietenbeck; Matthew Collins; Petter Lundborg; Kaveh Majlesi |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of exposure to income and wealth inequality during adolescence on long-term educational and labor market outcomes. Using detailed Swedish register data covering all students completing compulsory education between 1989 and 2013, we construct measures of inequality among students’ school-cohort peers and exploit variation between cohorts within schools to identify plausibly causal effects. We find no evidence that exposure to inequality affects GPA, high school graduation, university enrollment, university completion, or income up to age 35. These null results are precisely estimated and robust to alternative measures of inequality, sample definitions, and specifications. Moreover, we find no evidence of systematic heterogeneity by socioeconomic background. Taken together, these findings provide reassurance that school integration policies mixing students from different socioeconomic backgrounds do not carry hidden long-run costs stemming from exposure to inequality. More broadly, they challenge the view that school-based exposure to peer inequality during adolescence is a causal driver of human capital accumulation or later-life mobility. |
| Keywords: | inequality, education, peer effects |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12295 |
| By: | Jurgena Myftiu (Department of Economics, University of Bergamo); Daniele Crotti (Department of Human Sciences and of the Innovation for the Territory, University of Insubria); Elena Maggi (Department of Economics, University of Insubria) |
| Abstract: | Urban cycling tourism represents a cornerstone of sustainable mobility strategies aimed at reducing motorised travel and improving environmental and social well-being in cities. However, despite the crucial role of safety in encouraging cycling uptake, research has seldom examined how urban bike tourists adjust their behaviour to mitigate risk and cope with perceived road unsafety. Likewise, the influence of information on cycling accidents and risk perception on the intention to engage in urban cycling tourism remains largely overlooked in the literature. This study advances knowledge in this field by analysing data from an Italian online survey of city cyclists, adopting the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and a two-step empirical approach. First, an ordered probit model investigates how socio-demographic and travel-related characteristics shape the use of information sources and perceptions of road safety among cyclists. Second, after validating PMT constructs and identifying latent dimensions through confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, a structural equation model estimates the effects of information sources on health-protective intentions and behaviours relevant for sustainable cycling mobility. Results show that information on risks exerts both direct and indirect effects, mediated by PMT constructs, on the intention to avoid urban bike tourism. The findings offer insights for policy interventions aimed at enhancing perceived and actual safety, thereby supporting a modal shift toward more sustainable urban travel choices. |
| Keywords: | Bike tourism; Accident risks; Sustainable mobility; SEM model; Factor analysis |
| JEL: | Z3 R41 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.24 |
| By: | Sofoklis Goulas; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Tommaso Sartori |
| Abstract: | Teachers play a central role in shaping how students benefit from peers, yet little is known about how classroom composition affects their attention-allocation decisions. We conduct a large-scale randomized experiment using realistic class- room vignettes to assess how teachers engage with students under varying scenarios and objectives. The presence of a high achiever reduces the likelihood that teachers engage with a low achiever by about 8%, with substantially larger effects when teachers prioritize task success, consistent with convenience-based decision-making. Using administrative data, we show that low achievers per- form worse when quasi-randomly assigned to a classroom with an exceptional student. |
| Keywords: | teacher behavior, attention allocation, randomized controlled trial, educational inequality, peer effects |
| JEL: | I21 I28 C93 D91 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12301 |
| By: | Bietenbeck, Jan (Lund University); Collins, Matthew (Lund University); Lundborg, Petter (Lund University); Majlesi, Kaveh (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of exposure to income and wealth inequality during adolescence on long-term educational and labor market outcomes. Using detailed Swedish register data covering all students completing compulsory education between 1989 and 2013, we construct measures of inequality among students’ school-cohort peers and exploit variation between cohorts within schools to identify causal effects of inequality exposure. We find no evidence that exposure to inequality affects GPA, high school graduation, university enrollment, university completion, or income up to age 35. These null results are precisely estimated and robust to alternative measures of inequality, sample definitions, and specifications. Moreover, we find no evidence of systematic heterogeneity by socioeconomic background. Taken together, these findings suggest that school integration policies mixing students from different socioeconomic backgrounds do not necessarily carry hidden long-run costs stemming from exposure to inequality. More broadly, they challenge the view that school-based exposure to peer inequality during adolescence is a causal driver of human capital accumulation or later-life mobility. |
| Keywords: | education, causal, school, inequality, labor outcomes |
| JEL: | D31 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18289 |
| By: | Fasani, Francesco (University of Milan); Ferro, Simone (University of Milan); Romarri, Alessio (University of Milan); Pasini, Elisabetta (Alma Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first causal evaluation of the political impact of asylum seekers in the UK. Although dispersed across areas on a no-choice basis, political bargaining between central and local governments introduces potential endogeneity in their allocation. We address this with a novel IV strategy exploiting predetermined public-housing characteristics. For 2004–2019, we estimate a sizeable increase in the Conservative–Labour vote-share gap in local elections: a one within-area standard-deviation increase in dispersed asylum seekers widens the gap by 3.1 percentage points in favour of the Conservatives. We find similar rightward shifts in national elections, survey data on voting intentions, and the Brexit Leave vote. UKIP also gains, though less robustly. No effect appears for non-dispersed asylum seekers, who forgo subsidised housing and choose residences independently. Turning to mechanisms, voters move rightward without becoming more hostile towards foreigners. Using the universe of MPs’ speeches, we show that Conservative representatives from more exposed areas emphasise asylum and migration more, with no systematic change in tone or content. Heightened issue salience appears to drive voters’ choices. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, elections, refugees, MP’s speeches |
| JEL: | F22 D72 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18297 |
| By: | Hugo Spring-Ragain (HEIP) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a spatial-dynamic framework to analyze the theoretical and quantitative effects of a Land Value Tax (LVT) on urban land markets, capital accumulation, and spatial redistribution. Building upon the Georgist distinction between produced value and unearned rent, the model departs from the static equilibrium tradition by introducing an explicit diffusion process for land values and a local investment dynamic governed by profitability thresholds. Land value $V (x, y, t)$ and built capital $K(x, y, t)$evolve over a two-dimensional urban domain according to coupled nonlinear partial differential equations, incorporating local productivity $A(x, y)$, centrality effects $\mu(x, y)$, depreciation $\delta$, and fiscal pressure $\tau$ . Analytical characterization of the steady states reveals a transcritical bifurcation in the parameter $\tau$ , separating inactive (low-investment) and active (self-sustaining) spatial regimes. The equilibrium pair $(V ^*, K^*)$ is shown to exist only when the effective decay rate $\alpha = r + \tau - \mu(x, y)$ exceeds a profitability threshold $\theta = \kappa + \delta / I_0$, and becomes locally unstable beyond this boundary. The introduction of diffusion, $D_V \Delta V$, stabilizes spatial dynamics and generates continuous gradients of land value and capital intensity, mitigating speculative clustering while preserving productive incentives. Numerical simulations confirm these analytical properties and display the emergence of spatially heterogeneous steady states driven by urban centrality and local productivity. The model also quantifies key aggregate outcomes, including dynamic tax revenues, adjusted capital-to-land ratios, and net present values under spatial heterogeneity and temporal discounting. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the main qualitative mechanisms-critical activation, spatial recomposition, and bifurcation structure-remain robust under alternative spatial profiles $(A, \mu)$, discretization schemes, and moderate differentiation of the tax rate $\tau (x, y)$. From an economic perspective, the results clarify the dual nature of the LVT: while it erodes unproductive rents and speculative land holding, its dynamic incidence on built capital depends on local profitability and financing constraints. The taxation parameter $\tau$ thus acts as a control variable in a nonlinear spatial system, shaping transitions between rent-driven and production-driven equilibria. Within a critical range around $\tau_c$, the LVT functions as an efficient spatial reallocation operator-reducing inequality in land values and investment density without impairing aggregate productivity. Beyond this range, excessive taxation induces systemic contraction and investment stagnation. Overall, this research bridges static urban tax theory with dynamic spatial economics by formalizing how a land-based fiscal instrument can reshape the geography of value creation through endogenous diffusion and nonlinear feedback. The framework provides a foundation for future extensions involving stochastic shocks, adaptive policy feedbacks, or endogenous public investment, offering a unified quantitative perspective on the dynamic efficiency and spatial equity of land value taxation. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.21766 |
| By: | Myftiu, Jurgena; Crotti, Daniele; Maggi, Elena |
| Abstract: | Urban cycling tourism represents a cornerstone of sustainable mobility strategies aimed at reducing motorised travel and improving environmental and social well-being in cities. However, despite the crucial role of safety in encouraging cycling uptake, research has seldom examined how urban bike tourists adjust their behaviour to mitigate risk and cope with perceived road unsafety. Likewise, the influence of information on cycling accidents and risk perception on the intention to engage in urban cycling tourism remains largely overlooked in the literature. This study advances knowledge in this field by analysing data from an Italian online survey of city cyclists, adopting the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and a two-step empirical approach. First, an ordered probit model investigates how socio-demographic and travel-related characteristics shape the use of information sources and perceptions of road safety among cyclists. Second, after validating PMT constructs and identifying latent dimensions through confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, a structural equation model estimates the effects of information sources on health-protective intentions and behaviours relevant for sustainable cycling mobility. Results show that information on risks exerts both direct and indirect effects, mediated by PMT constructs, on the intention to avoid urban bike tourism. The findings offer insights for policy interventions aimed at enhancing perceived and actual safety, thereby supporting a modal shift toward more sustainable urban travel choices. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:376265 |
| By: | Shen, Mingzhou; Fan, Qin; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Wrenn, Douglas H. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343565 |
| By: | Elacqua, Gregory; Kutscher, Macarena; Nascimento, Danielle; Dias, Isabella; Margitic, Juan Francisco |
| Abstract: | Despite improvements in access to information, digital platforms, and centralized school admission systems, many parents continue to choose seemingly lower-quality schools, often prioritizing proximity over academic performance. We examine the role of information provision in this context through a randomized controlled trial (RCT) within the centralized admission platform of Recife, Brazil testing whether personalized school recommendations influence parental choice. Specifically, we implemented two treatment arms: one offering recommendations that ranked schools by quality within a defined distance (quality treatment), and another ranking schools solely by proximity (distance treatment). While the overall impact of the treatments was limited, we do find meaningful positive effects among users who actively engaged (”compliers”) with the recommendations (1424% of families). Compliers in the quality treatment were more likely to select higher-performing schools, particularly among first-grade applicants and families without strong prior preferences. These findings underscore both the promise of digital nudges in improving school choices and the challenges of deploying such tools in recently centralized systems, where many families enter with preset preferences and limited familiarity with the process. |
| Keywords: | school choice;Information Provision;Digital Nudges;Randomized Controlled Trials;Centralized Admission Systems;Parental School Choice Behavior;Digital Nudges and Engagement;Challenges in Centralized Admission;Decision.making;Education, childhood, equality |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 D83 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14420 |
| By: | Sarah Kiesl-Reiter (ifo Institute); Melanie Lührmann (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Jonathan Shaw (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Joachim Winter (University of Munich) |
| Date: | 2025–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/58 |
| By: | Xinquan Hu; Jun Zhang |
| Abstract: | In the housing market model introduced by Shapley and Scarf (1974), we propose a new axiom, local unanimity, that extends the unanimity condition widely used in social choice theory. It applies the unanimity condition to any subset of agents in the model who unanimously agree on the best exchange of their endowments. Building on this axiom, we provide several concise characterizations of the Top Trading Cycles (TTC) mechanism under both strict and weak preference domains. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.22027 |
| By: | Amandine Aubry; Anthony Edo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how immigrants in intermediate sectors affect downstream export performance. We develop a theoretical model in which a sector’s exports depend not only on its own immigrant workforce, but also on immigrant labor in input-supplying sectors. Using a new dataset on U.S. input–output from 2003-2017, we show that increases in immigrant employment in these sectors raise exports in connected downstream industries. This effect operates partly through improved production efficiency that lowers upstream input costs. By linking labor migration to production networks, we identify a new channel through which immigration shapes comparative advantage in international trade. |
| Keywords: | Immigration;Trade;Sectoral Linkages;Intermediate Sectors |
| JEL: | F22 F16 J61 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-17 |
| By: | Shilong Han |
| Abstract: | This study examines how China's high-speed rail (HSR) expansion affects analyst earnings forecast errors from an economic information friction perspective. Using firm-year panel data from 2008-2019, a period that covers HSR's early introduction and rapid nationwide rollout, the findings show that analysts' relative earnings forecast errors (RFE) decline significantly only after firms' cities become connected by high-speed rail. The placebo test, which artificially shifts HSR connectivity 3 years earlier than the actual opening year, yields an insignificant DID coefficient, rejecting the possibility that forecast errors were improving before the infrastructure shock. This supports the conclusion that forecast error reduction is linked to real geographic accessibility improvements rather than coincidence, pre-existing trends, or analyst anticipation. Economically, the study highlights that HSR reduces analysts' costs of gathering private, incremental information, particularly soft information obtained via plant or management visits. The rail network does not directly alter firms' internal capital allocation or earnings generation paths, but it lowers spatial barriers to information collection, enabling analysts to update EPS expectations under reduced travel friction. This work provides intuitive evidence that geography and mobility improvements contribute to forecasting accuracy in China's emerging, decentralized capital market corridors, and it encourages future research to consider transport accessibility as an exogenous information cost shock rather than an internal firm-capital shock. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.03709 |
| By: | Alessandro Bellocchi (Department of Economics, Society, Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo and SEEDS); Chiara Lodi (Department of Economics, Society, Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo and SEEDS); Giovanni Marin (Department of Economics, Society, Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, SEEDS and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Giuseppe Travaglini (Department of Economics, Society, Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo); Matteo Zavalloni (Department of Economics, Society, Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of extreme hydrogeological events on local governments’ fiscal responses in Italy between 2016 and 2022, with a focus on how local public finances contribute to disaster resilience. Leveraging the staggered timing of disaster declarations and employing a difference-in-differences framework, we estimate dynamic treatment effects on revenue and expenditure of municipal governments. Our findings indicate that local governments of affected municipalities significantly increase total and capital expenditures in the aftermath of disasters, particularly in functions related to emergency management, environmental protection and economic development. These spending increases are primarily financed through capital revenues and transfers from higher levels of government, with no corresponding rise in current expenditures. To explore heterogeneity in fiscal responses, we develop a fiscal resilience index combining measures of debt servicing costs and tax autonomy. We find that municipal governments with both low debt burden and high tax autonomy exhibit the strongest and most persistent post-disaster financial adjustments. In contrast, municipal governments with high debt service obligations and limited tax autonomy exhibit weaker responses, reflecting a constrained capacity to mobilize financial resources. These results underscore the critical importance of fiscal space, beyond formal fiscal autonomy, in shaping local governments’ ability to respond to climate-related shocks. From a policy perspective, our findings highlight the need to strengthen institutional and financial mechanisms that enhance fiscal resilience and ensure timely access to recovery resources for municipal governments with limited capacity. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal resilience, Hydrogeological disasters, Municipal budgets |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H84 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.32 |
| By: | Lim, Valerie L.; Marasigan, Arlyne C.; Sinsay-Villanueva, Leih Maruss; Garcia, Glenda Darlene V.; Tanyag, Ivan Harris; Berroya, Jenard D.; Monteverde, Richard P.; Mejia, Ivy P.; De Vera, Jayson L.; Castulo, Nilo J.; Tenorio, Alvin D.; De Pano, Cathlene P. |
| Abstract: | Mismatches between teacher specialization and the subjects they teach continue to be an ongoing challenge in the Philippine education system. It affects both pedagogical effectiveness and student learning outcomes. This study sought to investigate the degree of subject-taught mismatch, its influence on student performance, and the underlying factors that contribute to this misalignment. It employed a mixed-methods approach, integrating quantitative analysis of the extent of teachers’ specialization and subject-taught mismatch and its relationship with student examination scores, along with qualitative data from teacher interviews and surveys. The methodology encompasses an examination of existing datasets, the collection of primary data through surveys and interviews, and the statistical analysis of student performance metrics. Results showed a moderate positive relationship between teacher specialization alignment and students’ examination scores, suggesting that learners taught by specialized teachers generally exhibit higher levels of achievement. Findings also revealed that teachers frequently encounter multiple misalignments, rather than a single mismatch, between their specialization and assigned subjects. Furthermore, qualitative feedback indicated that teachers teaching outside their field of specialization experienced difficulties, including decreased confidence, heightened preparation time, and challenges in addressing student misconceptions. The study highlights significant policy implications, such as the necessity for systematic teacher recruitment and assignment procedures that promote specialized alignment, improved professional development programs for out-of-field teachers, and reinforced collaboration among educational institutions. To alleviate the adverse consequences of subject mismatch, educational organizations must establish specialized training programs, enhance workforce planning, and cultivate supportive learning environments for educators and learners. This is crucial for enhancing teaching quality, improving student outcomes, and developing a more effective approach to aligning teacher specialization with subject assignments within the school realities in the Philippines. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | educational policy;professional development;subject-taught mismatch;student learning outcomes;teacher specialization |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-33 |
| By: | Scholl, Lynn; Oviedo, Daniel; Sabogal-Cardona, Orlando; Casas-Cortes, Camila; Chea, Llando; Saboin, José Luis |
| Abstract: | This study explores the multiple enablers and barriers to school transportation and their broader social implications in Nassau, the capital of The Bahamas. We examine the complex interplay between physical, functional, and social factors shaping childrens, parents ', and caregivers daily access to school. A central revelation is the profoundly gendered nature of school transportation responsibilities in Nassau, with women constituting 83% of our sample who organize or undertake these daily journeys. Drawing on semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and a survey of 477 caregivers across Nassau, we adopt a mixed-methods approach combining descriptive statistics, factor analysis, and cluster modelling. We identify four distinct groups based on their perceptions of traffic safety, harassment risks, and climate-related barriers, including one cluster for whom flooding and other extreme weather concerns are central drivers of school transportation challenges. Our findings reveal that inadequate infrastructure, minimal enforcement of school zone traffic laws, and the perceived threat of harassment or violence pose significant barriers to childrens safe and enjoyable access to education. At the same time, extended family support and targeted school-zone measures emerge as notable enablers, alleviating some of the burdens placed on caregivers. Building on these insights, we offer evidence-based recommendations for policy and practice, underscoring the need for cross-sector collaboration to enhance infrastructure, strengthen traffic law enforcement, and address social vulnerabilities. By highlighting cluster-specific concerns-from gender-based violence to climate impacts-this paper provides a nuanced understanding of how school transportation challenges intersect with gender norms and broader societal issues, offering practical pathways toward more inclusive and resilient mobility systems for children and their caregivers. The paper also outlines future research directions around the consequences of these barriers and enablers for caregivers time use, labor participation and well-being. |
| JEL: | I23 I28 R40 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14422 |
| By: | Shrestha, Samyam; Kadam, Aditi; Gaddis, Isis; Javed, Amna |
| Keywords: | International Development, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:344057 |
| By: | Gao, Yujuan; Bai, Yu; Ma, Yue; Rozelle, Scott D. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:344078 |
| By: | Emiliano Tealde (Universidad Católica del Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | This work studies how drug trade-related violence affects individuals’ employment prospects. Using an experimental design, I find that candidates residing in areas associated with drug trade-related violence face significant labor market discrimination. Willingness to hire decreases a 16 % in candidates from a ”narco” neighborhood. Education acts as a mitigating factor, and candidates from a narco neighborhood who finish secondary school do not face discrimination. The results are not driven by employers’ perceptions of the candidates’ quality. I find that discrimination is higher among more experienced employers and that employers who are more concerned about public safety are not more likely to discriminate, which does not support statistical discrimination as the mechanism driving the effect. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination, Drug Trafficking, Violence |
| JEL: | D74 J23 J71 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021811 |
| By: | Nicola Cortinovis |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurs in rural areas face much greater difficulties than those located in cities, also with respect to the access to entrepreneurial finance. Recent developments in the provision of capital, however, have opened new opportunities for small firms and start-ups to obtain funding. In this empirical work, I hypothesize that crowdfunding provides crucial resources and support for rural-based entrepreneurs and that rural areas characterized by greater (bridging) social capital are better positioned to benefit from the opportunities of crowdfunding. Using a newly developed database linking crowdfunding campaigns to industry and counties in the U.S. (KIUS), county-level information on social capital and official U.S. census data, I test these hypotheses. My findings indicate that crowdfunding is indeed positively related to the number of ventures operating in the industry-location in the following period. In addition, this relationship is stronger for counties with higher levels of bridging social capital and of civic engagement. The results are robust to a number of checks, including a placebo test and matching exercises. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2535 |
| By: | Peter Siminski (University of Technology Sydney); Roger Wilkins (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of owner-occupied housing for income inequality. Departing from related work, we incorporate accrued capital gains, focus on long-run measures of income, and consider implications for tax progressivity. Using Australia as a case study, we show that housing income can have major implications for the apparent level and trends over time of inequality, progressivity of taxes and transfers, as well as the demographic profile of the rich and the poor. When imputed rent and accrued capital gains—neither of which are taxed—are included in the income base, the redistributive impact of income tax is reduced by 40%. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; Housing; Tax progressivity |
| JEL: | D63 R21 H24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2025n19 |
| By: | Wen Jiang; Yachen Wang; Zeqi Wu; Xingbai Xu |
| Abstract: | This paper develops limit theorems for random variables with network dependence, without requiring that individuals in the network to be located in a Euclidean or metric space. This distinguishes our approach from most existing limit theorems in network econometrics, which are based on weak dependence concepts such as strong mixing, near-epoch dependence, and $\psi$-dependence. By relaxing the assumption of an underlying metric space, our theorems can be applied to a broader range of network data, including financial and social networks. To derive the limit theorems, we generalize the concept of functional dependence (also known as physical dependence) from time series to random variables with network dependence. Using this framework, we establish several inequalities, a law of large numbers, and central limit theorems. Furthermore, we verify the conditions for these limit theorems based on primitive assumptions for spatial autoregressive models, which are widely used in network data analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.17928 |
| By: | Siminski, Peter (University of Technology, Sydney); Wilkins, Roger (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of owner-occupied housing for income inequality. Departing from related work, we incorporate accrued capital gains, focus on long-run measures of income, and consider implications for tax progressivity. Using Australia as a case study, we show that housing income can have major implications for the apparent level and trends over time of inequality, progressivity of taxes and transfers, as well as the demographic profile of the rich and the poor. When imputed rent and accrued capital gains—neither of which are taxed—are included in the income base, the redistributive impact of income tax is reduced by 40%. |
| Keywords: | tax progressivity, housing, inequality |
| JEL: | D63 R21 H24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18303 |
| By: | Giovanni Sciacovelli |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) in monetary policy transmission within the Euro Area. Conventional wisdom holds that ARMs are relevant per se. This study finds that the presence of liquidity-constrained households strongly influences their impact. Using Euro Area survey data, I document that transmission is stronger in countries that exhibit both high ARM shares and sizable shares of liquidity-constrained households. To interpret this finding, I develop a heterogeneous-agent model featuring: (i) heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), (ii) agents making both housing and mortgage choices, and (iii) a fraction of households with ARMs. In the model, MPCs determine the extent to which changes in mortgage payments translate into changes in consumption, making ARMs an important transmission vehicle only when paired with high MPCs. These results highlight that accounting for household heterogeneity in MPCs is essential to assess the strength of transmission through ARMs. |
| Keywords: | Adjustable-rate mortgages; Euro Area; household heterogeneity; marginal propensity to consume; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/257 |
| By: | Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Mahmoud, Mohammad A.; Cabalfin, Deanne Lorraine D.; Monterola, Sheryl Lyn C. |
| Abstract: | The magnitude of out-of-school children (OOSC) in the Philippines has shown both progress and challenges in recent years. While the national OOSC rate decreased from 5.9 percent (1.64 million children) in 2017 to 4.1 percent (1.16 million children) in 2022, and further improved to 4.9 percent in 2023, troubling increases emerged at both ends of the age spectrum: among 5-year-olds who should be in kindergarten and among senior high school-aged children (16–17 years). This study employs a mixed-methods approach, analyzing Philippine Statistics Authority surveys, including the Annual Poverty Indicator Survey, the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, and the Labor Force Survey, alongside Department of Education (DepEd) administrative records. The study combines descriptive statistical analysis with econometric modeling using logistic regression to identify the determinants of school non-participation. It also provides estimates of children in seven dimensions of exclusion, which include both children currently not in school and those at risk of dropping out. Primary data collection involves key informant interviews with DepEd field staff, school heads, teachers, parents, and learners, including those who are OOSC. The study reveals remarkable system resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, with recovery to below pre-pandemic levels by 2022, while new age-specific barriers have emerged that require targeted interventions. Logistic regression results identify work status as the strongest predictor of non-attendance among high school-aged children (35 percentage point effect), followed by marriage (67 percentage point effect), while household income effects strengthened during the pandemic period, particularly for younger children. Female children consistently show a lower probability of being out of school across all age groups, and substantial regional variation persists even after controlling for household characteristics. Fieldwork from four study sites identified factors exacerbating these risks, including digital distractions and peer pressure among older youth (e.g., late-night gaming leading to chronic absenteeism), documentation barriers delaying kindergarten entry, and geographic isolation in rural areas. Policy recommendations are anchored in a comprehensive seven-pillar approach designed to holistically address OOSC challenges across age groups, sexes, and regions. The first pillar focuses on School Age Entry Advocacy, addressing the "too young" barrier through targeted campaigns that recognize disparities, particularly affecting 79 percent of boys and 77 percent of girls. The second pillar, Child Find, implements systematic mapping to enable precise, targeted interventions. Modern Pedagogy forms the third pillar, integrating educational technology with engaging teaching methods to make learning more accessible. The fourth pillar, HTHT (Human-Technology-Human Touch), emphasizes technology-enhanced learning with critical human connections. Economic Rebalancing constitutes the fifth pillar, directly addressing work-versus-education trade-offs that disproportionately impact different demographic groups. The sixth pillar, Enhanced Accelerated Education, provides condensed timelines, skills training, and internships to recapture and reintegrate out-of-school children. The final pillar, Supportive Ecosystems, can buffer barriers to schooling that are hidden from surveys. This multifaceted approach recognizes the complex, intersectional nature of educational exclusion, offering nuanced strategies to address systemic barriers across different age groups, genders, and regional contexts. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | out-of-school children;education access;kindergarten;senior high school;Philippines;educational policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-34 |
| By: | Sagiri KITAO; Nozomi TAKEDA |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a multi-region overlapping generations model with endogenous migration to quantify the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of foreign workers in aging Japan. Migration decisions are modeled explicitly, driven by cross-country differences in wages, demographics, and fiscal systems across Japan and the countries from which the migrants originate. The calibrated model replicates the sharp rise in Japan’s foreign workforce over the past decade and projects that their share will peak in the 2040s before declining as demographic and wage trends in source countries evolve. Foreign workers modestly mitigate the decline in labor supply and output and ease fiscal pressures, though their contribution remains partial. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating endogenous migration in assessments of long-run fiscal sustainability in aging economies. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25110 |
| By: | Jakob Schneebacher (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Fizza Jabbar (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)); Joel Kariel (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)) |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/57 |
| By: | Kren, Janez; Slaymaker, Rachel |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp814 |
| By: | Liang, Wanqi; Hua, Yunei; Li, Wenying; Dorfman, Jeffrey H. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343719 |
| By: | Yu, Chengzheng; Zhang, Zhi Min; Wei, Liangchun |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Health Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343628 |
| By: | Elacqua, Gregory; Hermosilla, Catalina; Kutscher, Macarena; Del Toro Mijares, Ana Teresa |
| Abstract: | Human-intensive programs like teacher mentoring face a fundamental scaling problem: evidence shows their impact declines as they expand, and the personalized support that makes them effective becomes prohibitively expensive at scale. This paper explores whether AI-powered tools can help resolve this tension. We document the development and pilot implementation of ”Profe Gabi, ” a generative AI chatbot designed to provide novice teachers in Chile with on-demand mentoring support through WhatsApp. The chatbot delivers personalized guidance across three dimensionspedagogical practice, socio-emotional well-being, and career developmentdrawing on Chiles existing National Induction and Mentoring System, which currently reaches fewer than 1% of eligible teachers due to capacity constraints. During an eight-week pilot with 550 novice teachers, Profe Gabi demonstrated the technical feasibility of scaling mentoring support: it reached more than three times the number of teachers served by the national program while maintaining high user satisfaction. However, engagement declined significantly, revealing critical implementation challenges around sustained adoption. We analyze these patterns to identify what conditions may be necessary for AI tools to meaningfully expand access to professional development, and discuss insights that inform Profe Gabis scale-up in 2025-2026. Our study contributes to an emerging literature on AI technologies for teacher support and offers lessons for similar interventions globally |
| Keywords: | Teacher mentoring;novice teachers;artificial intelligence;chatbots;professional development;scaling;education technology;Chile |
| JEL: | O33 I21 I25 M53 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14423 |
| By: | Ilya O. Ryzhov; John Gunnar Carlsson; Yinchu Zhu |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic segregation often arises in school districting and other contexts, causing some groups to be over- or under-represented within a particular district. This phenomenon is closely linked with disparities in opportunities and outcomes. We formulate a new class of geographical partitioning problems in which the population is heterogeneous, and it is necessary to ensure fair representation for each group at each facility. We prove that the optimal solution is a novel generalization of the additively weighted Voronoi diagram, and we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to compute it, thus resolving an open question dating back to Dvoretzky et al. (1951). The efficacy and potential for practical insight of the approach are demonstrated in a realistic case study involving seven demographic groups and $78$ district offices. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.19722 |
| By: | Giorgia Casalone; Alessandra Michelangeli; Jurgena Myftiu |
| Abstract: | This study examines the causal impact of additional financial aid granted to students living far from university on their academic performance. It exploits an Italian policy that supports the relocation of scholarship recipients to the university city. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design based on a travel-time eligibility threshold, we compare the academic outcomes of scholarship holders enrolled at a medium-sized public university. Results indicate that relocated students accumulate credits more slowly and achieve lower average grades than comparable commuters, with no evidence that relocated students trade exam quality for quantity. A mediation analysis suggests that these effects may be driven by time-management difficulties and the limited adequacy of the financial support to cover living expenses. By focusing on an overlooked dimension of student aid, the paper contributes to the understanding of how financial support mechanisms interact with students’ living arrangements and provides novel causal evidence on the interplay between financial aid and students’ living arrangements in higher education. |
| Keywords: | Scholarships, Higher education, Academic performance, Living arrangements, Regression Discontinuity. |
| JEL: | H2 H4 I2 C3 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:563 |
| By: | Volker, Jamey |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewedacademic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. VMT and GHG emissions reduction is shown by effect size, defined as the amount of change in VMT (or other measures of travel behavior) per unit of the strategy, e.g., a unit increase in density. Effect sizes can be used to predict the outcome of a proposed policy or strategy. They can be in absolute terms (e.g., VMT reduced), but are more commonly in relative terms (e.g., percent VMT reduced). Relative effect sizes are often reported as the percent change in the outcome divided by the percent change in the strategy, also called an elasticity. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0k26x2jw |
| By: | Nail Kashaev; Natalia Lazzati |
| Abstract: | We develop a continuous-time peer-effect discrete choice model where peers that affect the preferences of a given agent are randomly selected based on their previous choices. We characterize the equilibrium behavior and study the empirical content of the model. In the model, changes in the choices of peers affect both the set of peers the agent pays attention to and her preferences over the alternatives. We exploit variation in choices coupled with variation in the size of the set of potential peers to recover agents' preferences and the peer selection mechanism. These nonparametric identification results do not rely on exogenous variation of covariates. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.21446 |
| By: | Barbour, Elisa |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewed academic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. VMT and GHG emissions reduction is shown by effect size, defined as the amount of change in VMT (or other measures of travel behavior) per unit of the strategy, e.g., a unit increase in density. Effect sizes can be used to predict the outcome of a proposed policy or strategy. They can be in absolute terms (e.g., VMT reduced), but are more commonly in relative terms (e.g., percent VMT reduced). Relative effect sizes are often reported as the percent change in the outcome divided by the percent change in the strategy, also called an elasticity. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3nz8z47p |
| By: | Sanguinetti, Angela PhD; Fitch, Dillon PhD; Ferguson, Beth PhD; D'Agostino, Mollie |
| Abstract: | Micromobility—including shared, loaned, and leased bikes, e-bikes, and e-scooters—holds significant promise in supporting more sustainable travel. It supports first- and last-mile connections to public transit and reduces vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and associated emissions. However, the micromobility sector faces persistent challenges, and the path forward to delivering sustainable and equitable services remains unclear.To help chart that path, our research team conducted a Delphi study via two online surveys of micromobility stakeholders (N=45). Based on the findings, this brief presents a research roadmap that reflects the priorities of government, industry, and advocacy groups. It highlights where stakeholder perspectives align and where they diverge—laying the foundation for more targeted and collaborative research, policy, and practice. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8rc253cs |
| By: | Davide Del Prete (the University of Naples Parthenope); Aminur Rahman (Asian Development Bank); Edoardo Tolva (University of Lisbon ISEG) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how international buyers’ market power and transport mode shape the pass-through of exchange rate shocks to export prices. Using transaction level customs data from the Bangladeshi garment sector, we first document substantial buyer market power and the concentration of export activity in key trade hubs that shape transport decisions. We then show that large buyers leverage both their market power and their reliance on air freight to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Taken together, our findings highlight how buyer characteristics shape exporters’ adjustment to external shocks, with broader implications for regional economic resilience. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh;exchange rate;global value chain;market power;transport mode |
| JEL: | D22 D43 E31 F10 L14 L22 |
| Date: | 2025–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021792 |
| By: | Akhundjanov, Sherzod B.; Oladi, Reza; Nehra, Arpita; Caplan, Arthur |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343708 |
| By: | Fisher, Ian J.; Maredia, Mywish K.; Tschirley, David L. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343673 |
| By: | Guillermo Guzmán Prudencio (SDSN Bolivia); Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living income expenses and living wages for Dhaka, Bangladesh and its surrounding Satellite Cities, where most of Bangladesh’s garment industry is located. The update for 2025 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker living wage study carried out in March 2016 (Khan et al., 2016). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, Bangladesh. |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250448 |
| By: | Daigo Shiraishi (University of Tokyo); Ryuichi Shibasaki (University of Tokyo); Wenru Zhang (University of Tokyo); Yesim Elhan-Kayalar (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study examines port terminal efficiency through an empirical analysis of the turnaround times of vessels, trucks, and containers entering and leaving selected Japanese container terminals. Using a comprehensive dataset combining terminal operator records, vessel movement data, and liner service data, we analyze patterns in vessel berthing, truck arrival, truck turnaround, container round trip, and container dwell times across multiple ports. Our findings reveal distinct temporal patterns in terminal operations—with significant variations between import and export containers—and demonstrate that vessel calls, container types, and time of day significantly influence operational efficiency. Regression analyses indicate that turnaround times are primarily affected by terminal controlled factors. Based on these findings, we propose policy recommendations for dynamic scheduling systems, operational standardization, and infrastructure optimization. Our results contribute to the growing literature on port digitalization and provide evidence-based guidance for terminal operators and policymakers seeking to enhance port efficiency through digital integration. |
| Keywords: | port efficiency;digital integration;container terminals;turnaround time;truck appointment systems;terminal operations |
| JEL: | R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021807 |
| By: | Peter Shum |
| Abstract: | Classical spatial models predict platform convergence, yet empirical polarization persists. This paper proposes a non-electoral mechanism: lobbying as a monopsonistic market for legislative support. Here, extreme benefactors must pay more to attract distant politicians, creating a rent gradient that rewards platform differentiation. We find that the unique equilibrium places politicians at $(\frac{1}{4}, \frac{3}{4})$ for any monotone policy-production cost. Thus, polarization can arise solely from lobbying-market structure, independent of electoral incentives. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.01796 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | Regional disparities in the economic and social structures of countries have a great impact on their development levels. In geographically, culturally and economically diverse countries like Turkiye, determining the socioeconomic status of the provinces and regional differences is an important step for planning and implementing effective policies. Therefore, this study aims to determine the socioeconomic disparities of the provinces in Turkiye. For this purpose, a socioeconomic development index covering the economic and social dimensions of 81 provinces was constructed. For the index, 16 different indicators representing economic and social factors were used. These indicators were converted into indices using the Min-Max normalization method and Principal Component Analysis. Afterwards, using these indices, the provinces were divided into groups using the K-Means clustering algorithm and the Elbow method. In the last part of the study, the results are presented in a visual format using Scatter Plots, clustering maps and QGIS mapping tools. The results of the study show that 2 of the 81 provinces in Turkiye have very high, 30 high, 25 medium and 24 low socioeconomic indices. Istanbul and Ankara have very high socioeconomic status. In general, the provinces in western Turkiye have a high socioeconomic index, while the provinces in eastern and southeastern Anatolia face serious challenges in terms of socioeconomic indicators. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.02687 |
| By: | Huan Wu |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a general framework for identifying causal effects in settings with spillovers, where both outcomes and endogenous treatment decisions are influenced by peers within a known group. It introduces the generalized local average controlled spillover and direct effects (LACSEs and LACDEs), which extend the local average treatment effect framework to settings with spillovers and establish sufficient conditions for their point identification without restricting the cardinality of the support of instrumental variables. These conditions clarify the necessity of commonly imposed restrictions to achieve point identification with binary instruments in related studies. The paper then defines the marginal controlled spillover and direct effects (MCSEs and MCDEs), which naturally extend the marginal treatment effect framework to settings with spillovers and are nonparametrically point identified from continuous variation in instruments. These marginal effects serve as building blocks for a broad class of policy-relevant treatment effects, including some causal spillover parameters in the related literature. Semiparametric and parametric estimators are developed, and an application using Add Health data reveals heterogeneity in education spillovers within best-friend networks. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.22643 |
| By: | Alem, Yonas (University of Gothenburg and Jameel Poverty Action Lab - J-PAL,); Schürz, Simon (Federal Statistical Office of Germany) |
| Abstract: | Spouses not matched in preference and decision-making power may make inefficient household decisions that may have long-term implications. In this paper, we conduct a series of lab-in-the-field experiments with parents to test whether mothers avoid bargaining with their more powerful spouses, thereby sacrificing the ability to finance expensive educational inputs through income pooling. We asked mothers and fathers to allocate money between a cash payout and a voucher double the value of the cash payout for children’s school materials, either individually or jointly with their spouse. We randomly varied how much couples could gain by deciding jointly on the allocation. We find that parents strategically react to higher levels of the treatment by cooperating more, but mothers in particular are more likely to avoid bargaining and sacrifice voucher value. We show that these results are driven by mothers with low empowerment, who believe their spouses disagree with their preferred allocations. After the redemption of the voucher for school materials, children of noncooperative parents achieve significantly lower test scores, suggesting a negative intergenerational externality of parents’ decisions. |
| Keywords: | intra-household decision-making; gender; educational investments; income pooling |
| JEL: | D13 D14 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2025_008 |
| By: | Claudia Fernandez Garcia; Johannes Schuffels; Valeria Ferreira; Luis Pedauga; Jose Manuel Rueda Cantuche; Daria Ciriaci |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the expected economic impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) in the Netherlands in the medium term and its sectoral and regional distribution, leveraging a novel sectoral database and the dynamic general equilibrium FIDELIO model. The overall results show that the RRF has a total expected impact in the Dutch economy of EUR 13 bn in the medium term, with EUR 4.3 bn in direct impact and EUR 8.8 bn in spillover effects from other Member States' plans. The Dutch 'Construction' sector is expected to benefit the most from the Dutch RRP. This is largely driven by an energy efficiency subsidy, for which we provide evidence that the largest effects in terms of economic impact can be expected in the more rural parts of the country. Regarding spillovers from other Member States’ RRPs, the ‘Wholesale trade’ sector is expected to benefit the most due to Rotterdam’s central role as a logistics hub for the EU. The impact of the RRF in the Netherlands is spread out over the country, with significant differences across sectors. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of considering the EU as a whole when assessing the RRF's impact and highlight that potential effects of the RRF in open and competitive economies are significantly larger than their initial allocation. |
| JEL: | C82 E61 E62 F15 F17 F41 F42 F62 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:dispap:232 |
| By: | Grzegorz Jamr\'oz; Rafa{\l} Kucharski; David Watling |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamics and equilibria of a new kind of routing games, where players - drivers of future autonomous vehicles - may switch between individual (HDV) and collective (CAV) routing. In individual routing, just like today, drivers select routes minimizing expected travel costs, whereas in collective routing an operator centrally assigns vehicles to routes. The utility is then the average experienced travel time discounted with individually perceived attractiveness of automated driving. The market share maximising strategy amounts to offering utility greater than for individual routing to as many drivers as possible. Our theoretical contribution consists in developing a rigorous mathematical framework of individualized collective routing and studying algorithms which fleets of CAVs may use for their market-share optimization. We also define bi-level CAV - HDV equilibria and derive conditions which link the potential marketing behaviour of CAVs to the behavioural profile of the human population. Practically, we find that the fleet operator may often be able to equilibrate at full market share by simply mimicking the choices HDVs would make. In more realistic heterogenous human population settings, however, we discover that the market-share maximizing fleet controller should use highly variable mixed strategies as a means to attract or retain customers. The reason is that in mixed routing the powerful group player can control which vehicles are routed via congested and uncongested alternatives. The congestion pattern generated by CAVs is, however, not known to HDVs before departure and so HDVs cannot select faster routes and face huge uncertainty whichever alternative they choose. Consequently, mixed market-share maximising fleet strategies resulting in unpredictable day-to-day driving conditions may, alarmingly, become pervasive in our future cities. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.03524 |
| By: | Ladha, Rij; Khan, Sarah; Das Banerjee, Anannya; Ramji, Aditya |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6q05q3mb |
| By: | Roth, Jakob; Schwab, Laura; Hintermann, Beat |
| Abstract: | The European travel sector is experiencing a transformation driven by increased climate awareness and policy measures aimed at reducing external costs such as emissions. This study examines how Swiss travelers respond to these developments, using a stated preference experiment including the modes train, night train, car, and airplane. Employing nested logit models, we find a significant willingness-to-pay for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) of CHF 94 per ton of CO2e. Based on the estimated coefficients, we evaluate the impacts of four policy scenarios: an aviation tax (CHF 30), a night train subsidy (CHF 20), a SAF blending quota, and a market outlook for 2030. These scenarios are benchmarked against the first-best Pigovian tax on transport externalities. Assessing demand shifts, consumer surplus, and external costs, we find that subsidizing night train prices, the aviation tax, and the 2030 scenario increase welfare, whereas a 6% SAF mandate reduces it. |
| JEL: | D6 R4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/08 |
| By: | Yassine, Ziad; Shaheen, Susan A. |
| Abstract: | The transition toward electric vehicles (EVs) represents a pivotal shift in transportation technology, promising significant environmental benefits through reduced greenhouse gas emissions and decreased dependence on fossil fuels. However, the integration of EVs presents unique challenges and opportunities within the context of social equity. EVs have emerged as a key technology in the evolution of transportation, with their history tracing back to the late ninteenth century. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7pb0s2db |