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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Yuan Zhao; Pin-Te Lin |
| Abstract: | Extensive body of literature investigating the dynamic relationship between national housing and stock price movements has been conducted. However, studies focusing on the regional housing markets are scant. In this study, we intend to explore the dynamics between regional housing, residential REITs, and stock markets in the US, to provide a comprehensive view of the spatialisation of the performance of indirect real estate, direct real estate, and stock markets. Using house price index for national and 20 cities, we employ the unconditional and rolling-window three-dimensional VAR model and Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index to investigate the contemporaneous relationships among the three markets. The linkage between causality and spatial dynamics from the local housing market, such as population, income, and elasticities, have been examined. We find strong bi-directional causality between stock market and residential REITs, at both national- and city-level. However, only single-directional causality has been detected from stock or residential REITs to housing market for majority of cities, implying a wealth effect. We find stronger spillovers from REITs to housing compared to stock to housing market. The spillovers from housing to the other two markets are significantly lower. The transmission of spillovers get intensified during economics crisis periods, and regional market elasticities. |
| Keywords: | housing market; Residential REITs; Spillovers; Stock market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_305 |
| By: | Carmelo Micciche; Michel Baroni |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the geographical distribution of buyer typologies and their impact on housing price formation across France. Using an original and exhaustive dataset linking property transactions to detailed owner profiles, it proposes a novel approach by analyzing buyer characteristics — including real estate capital, age, and intended property use — and assessing their spatial patterns. A set of buyer-related indicators is constructed. Based on these indicators, a Kohonen clustering method is applied to segment the territory, successfully identifying typologically coherent and spatially consistent housing market areas. The analysis shows that the markets experiencing the strongest price increases are also those with a relatively high presence of multi-property owners. Further hedonic modeling confirms that buyer types have a measurable and significant impact on housing price formation, with multi-property owners having a positive effect on prices by paying more for comparable properties. |
| Keywords: | Buyer impact on prices; Buyer type repartition; Hedonic regression; Self-Organizing-Map |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_303 |
| By: | George Cashman; David Harrison; Hainan Sheng |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of local government corruption on the commercial real estate market, aiming to understand how convictions for local corruption influence the property portfolio performance of publicly traded real estate investment trusts. Our findings consistently demonstrate that corruption leads to a decrease in subsequent property portfolio returns across a multitude of alternative econometric specifications. Additionally, this research also explores the interaction between corruption and property concentration, specifically finding that while highly concentrated property portfolios generally exhibit lower returns, such clustering appears to be (at least in part) a defensive mechanism in highly corrupt regions designed to offset potential adverse effects. In sum, this study sheds light on the intricate dynamics within the real estate investment landscape, emphasizing the need to address corruption-related challenges to economic returns on real estate investments. |
| Keywords: | political corruption; Property portfolio returns; Real Estate Investment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_217 |
| By: | Xiaodan Liu; Anupam Nanda; Sotirios Thanos |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and resultant shift to work-from-home fundamentally reshaped the spatial distribution of house prices across England and Wales. Using panel data at the neighbourhood level from 2014 to 2022, two key dimensions of this transformation are identified: the devaluation of job-dense areas and the flattening of residential price gradients to urban centres. Two-way fixed-effects models demonstrate that each 1% increase in the job density ratio corresponded with a 0.0165% increase in house prices pre-pandemic, but this price premium decreased by 81% during COVID. The price gradient between central locations and outlying areas flattened significantly, with the distance coefficient almost doubling in 2020 compared to 2019. The persistence of these effects through 2022 suggests a structural reorganisation of residential preferences rather than a temporary shock. The findings provide robust evidence of shifting spatial equilibrium across England and Wales, carrying significant implications for regional development, transportation infrastructure, and commercial real estate markets as both urban and rural areas adapt to more flexible working arrangements. |
| Keywords: | England and Wales; House Prices; spatial equilibrium; Work-from-home |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_271 |
| By: | Julius Range; Lars Jagemann |
| Abstract: | This study examines the linkage between political uncertainty and residential real estate market behavior in Germany. Using spatial regression techniques to address neighborhood spillover effects, we identify district level residential real estate investment activity to be negatively associated with increased political uncertainty. We measure political related uncertainty by applying the media-based Uncertainty Perception Index. We find the results to appear robust in various applied regression specification. Controlling for a broad range of market fundamentals, we find rural areas to be influenced significantly stronger by increasing political uncertainty than urban areas. Further, we use the quarterly flow of transaction prices to isolate the effect of uprising uncertainty on residential real estate values. Our results indicate a strong negative impact of political uncertainty on transaction prices. The results suggest that political uncertainty not only has a significant impact on the behavior of real estate investors, but also on market values. |
| Keywords: | housing market; political uncertainty; Real Estate Investment; uncertainty measures |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_20 |
| By: | Koetter, Michael; Winter, Birte; Wöbbeking, Carl Fabian |
| Abstract: | We study how and why local biodiversity affects residential property values. Leveraging remotely sensed greenness indicators and a novel dataset of granular property listings, we examine how changes in vegetation load on real estate prices. Hikes in greenness are associated with higher listing prices, fewer properties listed, and reduced liquidity in housing markets. These results suggest that price hikes in housing markets are driven by supply-side constraints instead of a "greenium" that buyers might be willing to pay due to innate preferences. Exogenous zoning shocks to foster biodiversity corroborate the presence of supply side constraints as price drivers in residential housing markets. Our findings emphasize the need to calibrate biodiversity and (social) housing policy objectives more explicitly. |
| Keywords: | biodiversity, house prices, remote sensing, risk |
| JEL: | Q51 Q57 Q58 R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:331889 |
| By: | Siming Chen |
| Abstract: | As China’s real estate market faces a significant downturn, understanding and forecasting the dynamics of housing prices and real estate companies’ stock performance has become increasingly critical. This study explores the relationship between housing price trends and public sentiment, using quantitative analyses to uncover the intricate interplay of these factors. By leveraging housing price data from China’s top 50 cities and sentiment analysis of comments on social media, and further scoring public sentiment using SnowNLP and Maximum Information Coefficient (MIC) to identify the correlation between sentiment score and housing prices. The results indicate that some of the cities have significant correlation between sentiment score and housing price. This research offers novel insights into how public sentiment influences the real estate market, providing evidence and reference for further study in not only Chinese social media but also other languages’ social media regarding real estate market. |
| Keywords: | Correlation; real estate; Sentiment; Social Media |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_238 |
| By: | Qiulin Ke; Fangchen Zhang |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies provide evidence that commercial real estate with BREME, LEED, ECP, or Energy Star certifications command sale and rent premiums. However, there is a regional gap in green building distribution, often influenced by property market returns and underlying economic conditions in these areas. This paper empirically investigates the factors driving the transformation of green buildings across regions in England and Wales, focusing on regional economic development, green jobs provision, deprivation and commercial real estate market dynamics. We use the building locations of EPC ratings that meet the UK government minimum standards (i.e. EPC rating A-C) to explore the spatial clustering of green building practices in commercial buildings in England and Wale and explore the factors that cause the spatial difference of green buildings. |
| Keywords: | Green Building; social economic development; Spatial Distribution; UK |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_234 |
| By: | Mats Wilhelmsson; Piotr Dabrowski |
| Abstract: | This study examines the price impact of neotraditional architecture in Stockholm's multifamily housing market, employing hedonic pricing models, spatial econometrics, and propensity score matching to ensure robust analysis. The findings indicate that apartments in buildings with classical architectural styles command a price premium of 5% to 6%, with spatial models confirming this effect. However, the premium is more pronounced in lower-price segments, suggesting a nuanced demand for architectural heritage. The study underscores the importance of addressing spatial dependencies in real estate valuation and contributes to the literature by exploring the economic appeal of neotraditional designs in contemporary urban settings. Methodological limitations, such as geographic specificity and reliance on observational data, highlight the need for future research to assess the generalisability of these findings in diverse markets and longitudinal contexts. These insights offer practical implications for urban planners and developers to balance architectural diversity with market dynamics. |
| Keywords: | arctectual style; Construction; Hedonic; Housing Prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_203 |
| By: | Simon Thaler; Felipe Calainho; Marc Francke |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of incorporating building footprint images into Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) for improved property valuation accuracy. Traditional AVMs primarily rely on property characteristics, regional data, and historical transaction records, often overlooking the geometric and spatial features represented in building footprints. This research proposes integrating Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to analyze building footprint images and refine AVM predictions by modeling residuals from a baseline AVM. The dataset includes Austrian residential properties, encompassing transaction prices, property attributes, and building footprint data. By leveraging CNNs, the study aims to capture hidden patterns related to building shape, layout, and surrounding spatial distribution, enhancing the understanding of factors influencing real estate prices. Anticipated results suggest that the inclusion of spatial data in AVMs can lead to more nuanced and accurate valuations, providing valuable insights for financial institutions and the real estate industry. |
| Keywords: | Automated Valuation Methods; Building Footprints; Convolutiona Neural Networks |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_194 |
| By: | Yildiray Yildirim; Zhang Jian; Bing Zhu |
| Abstract: | This study examines the local economic impacts of the opioid epidemic by focusing on the performance of commercial real estate loan. We establish causal identification by leveraging plausible exogenous variation in primary physicians per capita and staggered adoption of state-level Opioid Misuse Prevention Legislation. Our findings indicate that opioid abuse decreases net operating income and increases vacancy rates, leading to a surge in loan defaults. We present direct evidence for economic channels showing that opioid abuse disrupts local economies through reduced business sales and eroded neighborhood desirability, which decreases net operating income and lowers occupancy rates of commercial real estate properties, ultimately leading to higher default rate. The effect is more severe in residential and retail properties, areas with weaker economic conditions, communities with higher proportions of Black and Asian populations, younger individuals, and Republican states. Our study underscores a new negative externality of the opioid crisis on local economies and its spillover effects on financial markets. |
| Keywords: | Commercial Mortgage; Economic Impact; Loan Defaults; Opioid Epidemic |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_283 |
| By: | Mingzhi Xiao; Yuki Takayama |
| Abstract: | This study examines how congestion pricing shapes housing market outcomes and spatial equity in New York City. Using high-frequency sales and rental data and a combination of propensity score matching difference-in-differences, geographic regression discontinuity, and event study designs, the analysis identifies distinct short-run adjustment patterns triggered by the policy announcement. Housing prices inside the toll zone fell by about 3.3% and rents by 3%, with the sharpest declines occurring immediately after the announcement. These effects weakened over time, and price resilience emerged among premium properties, indicating early market sorting and growing segmentation. The Geo-RDD results show a clear boundary penalty, with properties just inside the cordon experiencing more pronounced declines than otherwise similar properties just outside. Renters and lower-value segments were more exposed to early adjustment pressures, while implementation-stage effects were limited. The findings suggest that congestion pricing can reshape urban space not only by altering mobility incentives but also by redistributing access and opportunity. Equity-oriented design that includes early-stage support for boundary neighborhoods and renters, along with reinvestment of revenues into untolled transit access, is important for ensuring that the benefits of congestion pricing are shared rather than concentrated. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13200 |
| By: | Georgy Artemov; Kentaro Tomoeda |
| Abstract: | We study how school choice mechanisms shape wealth segregation in the long term by endogenizing residential choice. Families buy houses in school zones that determine admission priority, experience shocks to school preferences, and participate in one of three mechanisms: neighborhood assignment (N), Deferred Acceptance (DA), or Top Trading Cycles (TTC). Neighborhood segregation increases from N to DA to TTC. DA and TTC reduce school-level segregation relative to neighborhoods but typically not enough to reverse this ranking, and housing prices in oversubscribed zones rise in the same order. Two desegregation policies further illustrate how short- and long-term perspectives can differ. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.09967 |
| By: | Maxime Charreire; Marion Girard; Marie-Noëlle Lefebvre |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of competition between major construction and development firms and other developers on housing production in France, offering both theoretical and empirical contributions. Theoretically, a static monocentric city model shows that major firms, due to lower marginal costs, prioritize high-demand central areas, whereas other developers focus their production activities in peripheral zones. Empirically, an analysis of building permit data (2013–2022) reveals that major firms concentrate their projects in metropolitan areas and in the core of urban regions, with larger-scale developments. This study sheds light on the role of market competition structure in shaping urbanization and the geographic distribution of housing production in France. |
| Keywords: | Competition; Monocentric city model; Real Estate Developers; Urbanization |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_163 |
| By: | Aziz Can ensazl; Ece Özmen |
| Abstract: | Sustainable urban transformation emerges as a comprehensive solution to the infrastructure challenges and environmental degradations caused by industrialization and rapid urbanization, addressing economic, social, and environmental dimensions. This study analyzes the direct and indirect economic impacts of urban transformation projects, emphasizing employment creation and value increases in the construction sector and related industries. Additionally, the research highlights the contributions of green investments to price increases in the real estate market and their benefits in terms of energy efficiency and environmental sustainability. The study examines two example projects from Turkey, Piyalepaa Istanbul and WE Haliç, in detail. It was determined that these projects were developed in accordance with sustainable urban transformation principles under green building certifications such as LEED-ND and generated significant economic multiplier effects. The findings reveal that sustainable approaches provide not only environmental benefits but also long-term economic advantages. The study demonstrates that promoting green investments contributes to making cities more resilient and livable while fostering sustainable growth in the real estate market. |
| Keywords: | economic multiplier; LEED-ND; Real Estate Market; sustainable urban transformation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_178 |
| By: | Alexandra Verlhiac |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of new metro stations on the real estate market in the Paris metropolitan area, leveraging rich online platform data from SeLoger. The dataset includes detailed information on listing prices, time on market, user engagement metrics (clicks and contact forms), and transaction data from DV3F. The analysis focuses on recent metro line extensions, with a methodology combining matching techniques and the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator to identify causal effects across staggered opening timelines. Results highlight a temporary increase in property prices and a significant reduction in time on market following station openings, reflecting greater market efficiency. These changes are accompanied by shifts in online user behavior, such as fewer clicks per listing due to faster transaction cycles. By integrating digital platform data into real estate research, this paper offers novel insights into how urban infrastructure developments influence market dynamics. Future extensions will assess the anticipated effects of upcoming Grand Paris Express stations, providing a comprehensive framework for evaluating the interplay between urban mobility and real estate markets. |
| Keywords: | Metro Station Openings; Online Platform Data; Real Estate Market; Urban Infrastructure Impact |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_175 |
| By: | John MacFarlane |
| Abstract: | It is increasingly the case that Public Housing Authorities are required to account for the financial performance and condition of their property portfolio on a regular basis. This is certainly the case in Australia where property and housing are largely the responsibility of State Governments rather than the Federal Government. In terms of asset values and performance, these are required annually, in market terms – not a nominal replacement value based on costs. This paper will discuss the valuation of the Teacher Housing Authority, which manages a portfolio of 1, 400 properties to provide accommodation for school teachers in mainly remote areas of Western NSW. This is a very diverse portfolio consisting of both houses and units (apartments); with many properties (up to 50) in a small number of rural centres; but is also quite sparse in some areas further removed from these regional towns. Mass appraisal methods are used to value the portfolio using a nearest-neighbour approach based on location, property type and property characteristics. The model and its development and use will be discussed. The selection of benchmark properties (which are directly valued) will be an issue of focus in terms of the optimal distribution and number of benchmarks required to meet quality assurance targets. |
| Keywords: | asset valuation; Housing Portfolio; Mass Appraisal; Quality Assurance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_68 |
| By: | Joanne Loh |
| Abstract: | A significant body of research has examined regional economic disparities and real estate market dynamics in the UK, testing for example for long run relationships (Derudder and Bailey, 2021 ; Gray 2018; Lizieri & Pain; 2014 and Raco, Sun and Brill; 2020), convergence (Drake, 1995; Cook, 2012; Abbott and De Vita, 2013; Meen and Nygaard, 2010 and Barro and Sal-i-Martin1991) and diffusion and spillover effect (Tsai, 2021; Mccgregor and Schwann, 2011). In this research I would explore the intricate relationship between regional economic disparities and the office market dynamics in the United Kingdom. The analysis draws upon a rich dataset provided by VOA, EGi and CoStar, which offers detailed and granular information on office market indicators in the UK. By employing cross-sectional and panel data analysis, this research aims to understand how varying levels of economic development across different regions affect office property values, investment patterns, and market stability. Cross-sectional data provides a snapshot of regional disparities at a specific point in time, while panel data tracks changes over multiple time periods, offering a more dynamic perspective. The integration of both methods allows for a robust analysis of regional economic factors and their influence on office real estate markets. |
| Keywords: | cross-sectional; Panel Data; regional economic disparity; UK office market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_279 |
| By: | Giulio Cornelli |
| Abstract: | Using novel US data from multiple platforms over 2019–25, I show that real estate tokenisation fills gaps in traditional markets. The supply of tokenised real estate is driven by pricing, demand, liquidity and supply in the physical property market. These factors affect the supply of traditional real estate properties and Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) portfolios differently. Areas with limited access to credit see more rapid growth in tokenised properties, suggesting tokenisation may bridge gaps in access to real estate. Finally, to test whether tokenisation can address liquidity gaps, I analyse trading activity around natural disasters as an exogenous liquidity shock. Trading in tokenised properties rises by 35% cumulatively over the two days following a disaster. This suggests that tokenisation can preserve liquidity when it typically dries up, but only if platforms provide buyback features, which comes with higher insolvency risk. |
| Keywords: | real estate, tokenisation, tokenised real world assets, tokenised housing, liquidity |
| JEL: | D02 G12 O33 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1311 |
| By: | Paloma Taltavull de La Paz; Francisco Juárez Tárraga; Eloisa Norman Mora |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of negative income, as identified in EU-Silc on household features and housing affordability. By exploring the prevalence and characteristics of households reporting negative income, the research aims to assess how these households manage housing costs, maintain stable living conditions, and access affordable housing options. Key topics include the determinants of negative income, its correlation with other socioeconomic indicators, and the varying effects on housing affordability across demographics and regions. The study also investigates how negative income levels influence housing tenure choices and whether housing affordability assistance measures effectively address the challenges faced by these households. Findings will provide insights into housing policy implications and highlight the need for targeted support for those with limited income stability to promote equitable access to affordable housing. |
| Keywords: | housing affordability, household features, negative income |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_214 |
| By: | Rosella Nicolini (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Juan A. Piedra-Peña (Universidad de Oviedo, Spain); José Luis Roig Sabaté (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Riccardo Turati (Dep Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain & IZA, Germany & RFBerlin, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The scope of our research is to conduct an empirical investigation into the degree of ethnic cohesion in a multiethnic city such as Barcelona (Spain). Our aim is to assess how immigrant and native groups are distributed across the city’s neighborhoods and understand their locational patterns in order to identify potential polarization trends that could undermine socioeconomic cohesion among citizens. Unlike much of the existing literature, we adopt a research strategy based on spatial analysis. Our findings indicate that, between 2008 and 2020, Barcelona experienced a decrease in polarization and an increase in diversity—understood as the co-location of different communities—at the neighborhood level. Income emerges as a relevant determinant: it is associated with lower diversity and positively correlated with polarization. We identify that high-income neighborhoods are predominantly inhabited by natives and Europeans, while other communities are relegated to peripheral areas, which in turn become more diverse. However, this distribution pattern is reinforced by the linguistic and religious distance. A deeper interpretation of our results suggests that initiatives aimed at fostering human capital development and education could serve as effective tools to promote a more balanced spatial distribution of communities that could enhance urban social cohesion. |
| Keywords: | . |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2519 |
| By: | Tuukka Huhtala; Steven Bourassa; Martin Hoesli; Wilma Nissilä; Elias Oikarinen |
| Abstract: | Econometric tests of house price bubbles based on time series explosiveness have become popular in empirical research. These tests typically have good ex-post performance in identifying bubble periods, but their ability to predict large house price declines ex-ante remains an open question. We study the most popular versions of these tests and assess their usefulness as real-time early warning indicators of large house price declines, a feature valuable for policymakers and investors alike. Using a panel of MSA-level data from the U.S., we estimate local housing market bubble periods indicated by each test and assess their ex-ante accuracy in predicting large house price declines. Consistent with previous studies, we find considerable heterogeneity in bubble periods across locations. Although there are complications with real-time interpretation of bubble signals, they are useful in predicting large house price declines. |
| Keywords: | house price bubbles; U.S. housing markets |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_127 |
| By: | Ping Cheng; Mingzhi Hu; Zhenguo Lin; Yingchun Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates racial disparities in mortgage stress. We begin by developing a simple model, and using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we find that black borrowers are significantly more susceptible to mortgage stress than their white counterparts, even after controlling for observable factors Our analysis reveals that a substantial portion of this racial gap can be attributed to differences in financial literacy levels, with only 14.1% of black borrowers demonstrating financial literacy compared to 52.9% of white borrowers. In particular, we find that the variance in financial literacy can account for 15.2% of the racial disparity in mortgage stress, and achieving parity in financial literacy could reduce the racial gap by 24.9%. Furthermore, our analysis highlights that the racial disparity is most pronounced in states with low levels of social capital, underscoring the role of social capital in ameliorating racial disparities. Policies and initiatives aimed at enhancing the financial literacy and social capital of black borrowers can help narrow the racial gap in mortgage stress. |
| Keywords: | Financial literacy; Mortgage stress; racial disparity; Social Capital |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_7 |
| By: | Yihan Hu; Yifei Huang; Weizhao Wang |
| Abstract: | Seasonality has traditionally shaped the U.S. housing market, with activity peaking in spring-summer and declining in autumn-winter. However, recent disruptions, particularly post-COVID-19, raise questions about shift in these patterns. This study analyzes housing market date (1991-2024) to examine evolving seasonality and regional heterogeneity. Using Housing Price Index (HPI), inventory and sales data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency and U.S. Census Bureau, seasonal components are extracted via the X-13-ARIMA procedure, and statistical tests assess variations across regions. The results confirm seasonal fluctuations in prices and volumes, with recent shifts toward earlier annual peak (March-April) and amplified seasonal effects. Regional variations align with differences in climate and market structure, while prices and sales volumes exhibit in-phase movement, suggesting thick-market momentum behaviour. These findings highlight key implications for policymakers, realtors and investors navigating post-pandemic market dynamics, offering insights into the timing and interpretation of housing market activities. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.10808 |
| By: | Marco Schmandt |
| Abstract: | I define a local measure of renter housing affordability in Germany as the affordable proportion of advertised dwellings at the market along the distribution of net incomes. Local net income distributions are estimated by constructing counterfactual distributions from local income tax statistics and survey data on net incomes. A housing budget is allocated by combining the residual income and income ratio approaches from the affordability literature and based on the legal and institutional setting in Germany: in German law minimum income standards can be derived from deductibles in support obligations of parents and renters are required to earn three times the monthly rent, i.e. a ratio. I compute the affordability measure for 400 districts in 2013 and 2021 and aggregated measures for different types of regions. Affordability in Germany declined for middle income renter households, but only in regions with population growth. Lower income households with children have close to zero affordability. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability; income ratio; regional inequality; residual income |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_62 |
| By: | Araya, Roberto; Cristia, Julian P.; Escalante, Lisseth; Fabregas, Raissa; Méndez, Carolina; Ríos, Gera |
| Abstract: | Self-led educational technologies have the potential to improve student learning at scale, but sustaining student engagement with these platforms remains a challenge. We present results from an experimental evaluation implemented following the scale-up of a math platform in Peru, where primary school teachers received weekly WhatsApp messages summarizing their students platform activity and encouraging them to promote their students engagement. The messages increased the average weekly share of students using the platform by 5 percentage points (a 17% increase) and the average share of math exercises completed by 4 percentage points (a 16% increase). Effects dissipated once the messages stopped, suggesting that salience and simplified monitoring are likely mechanisms. We find little evidence of impact heterogeneity based on teacher characteristics or students prior platform use and achievement. Non-experimental evidence suggests that increased use of the student math platform improved math learning. Overall, our findings indicate that light-touch communication with teachers can cost-effectively strengthen engagement with EdTech platforms scaled through the education system. |
| Keywords: | Messages;Education;Math achievement;Online |
| JEL: | I21 I25 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14371 |
| By: | Elkhateeb, Yasmine (J-PAL MENA); Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Valette, Jérôme (CEPII, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Does immigration challenge the identities, values, and cultural diversity of receiving societies? This paper addresses this question by analyzing the impact of immigration on cultural diversity in Europe between 2004 and 2018. It combines regional cultural diversity indices derived from the European Social Survey with immigration shares from the European Labor Force Survey. The results indicate that immigration increases the salience of birthplace identity along cultural lines, fostering a shift toward nativist identities among the native population. These identity shifts, in turn, trigger a process of cultural homogenization among natives. This effect is stronger in regions receiving culturally distant immigrants. It reflects a process of convergence toward the values of highly skilled liberal natives and divergence from those of low-skilled conservative immigrants. |
| Keywords: | cultural diversity, social identity, immigration |
| JEL: | F22 D03 D72 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18261 |
| By: | Holzman, Brian; Lewis, Bethany; Zhao, Jinhua; Ma, Hao |
| Abstract: | STEM deserts, similar to education deserts, are rural, suburban, and urban areas where students have limited access to school-based STEM curriculum and coursework opportunities. Using administrative data from the Houston Independent School District following a state policy change to high-school graduation requirements, this study develops measures of STEM deserts and identifies the students most likely to live in them. Findings reveal that Black and Asian/Pacific Islander students, students from non-English-speaking households, and those from lower-socioeconomic neighborhoods are disproportionately likely to live in STEM deserts compared to White students, students from English-speaking households, and those from higher-socioeconomic neighborhoods. |
| Date: | 2025–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s8wzv_v1 |
| By: | Xianglin Sun; Sven Damen |
| Abstract: | Flooding represents a major natural hazard with significant economic consequences. We study the causal effect of the introduction of a mandatory flood risk disclosure policy in Flanders in 2013, which introduced explicit flood risk labels in property listings. Leveraging extensive transaction data and employing Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Difference-in-Discontinuity (Diff-in-Disc) methods, we assess the policy's influence on housing prices. Our results reveal that properties located in potential flood risk zones experienced price declines of up to 4.71%, suggesting heightened market sensitivity to disclosed flood risks. However, for properties in effective flood risk zones, we find no consistent impact, likely reflecting existing awareness of flood exposure. These findings highlight the effectiveness of mandatory disclosure in mitigating information asymmetries and contribute to the broader discourse on environmental risk communication and housing market behavior. |
| Keywords: | flood risk; housing market; Mandatory Disclosure Policy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_222 |
| By: | Rong Wang; Anupam Nanda; Eero Valtonen |
| Abstract: | This research aims to estimate the determinants of foreign real estate investment (FREI) at the global city level. A dataset comprising bilateral real estate investment flows between 715 pairs of global cities from 2007 to 2021 is utilised. International real estate investments frequently exhibit missing or zero observations during certain periods, resulting in spikes in capital flows between cities. This ""zero-problem"" is particularly pronounced at the city level. To address this challenge, the study employs Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) within a gravity framework, which effectively accommodates zero capital flows. In addition, a Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is utilised to further account for an excess of zero observations in FREI flows. The findings offer insights into the city-level dynamics of FREI flows and consistently confirm theoretical expectations around geographic distance (reducing FREI flows between cities) and economic size (positively influencing the bilateral flows of FREI). |
| Keywords: | Foreign Real Estate Investment; Global City; Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood; Zero-Inflated Poisson |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_243 |
| By: | Kwan Ok Lee; So Young Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the measurement of self-containment and disparities in Singapore’s neighborhoods, exploring the '15-minute city' model, which promotes proximity to urban amenities. The study investigates the influence of land use diversity and accessibility to jobs and urban amenities on mobility changes using a dynamic DID and event study model, identifying key factors contributing to self-containment. It includes a long-term analysis of mobility pattern changes across four COVID-19 phases, capturing persistent behavior shifts in the new normal. The findings show that neighborhoods with greater accessibility to retail, food establishments, and leisure facilities experienced the most significant decreases in traffic volumes during weekends and weekday evenings, a trend that persisted into the endemic era. In contrast, the job-housing ratio had a lesser impact on morning traffic volume changes. The study provides insights for planning resilient neighborhoods based on the concept of self-containment. |
| Keywords: | 15-minute city; COVID-19; mobility pattern; Self-containment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_59 |
| By: | Alain Coen; Jerome Picault; Arnaud Simon |
| Abstract: | The aim of this research is to contribute to the literature of factors that explain the risk premium of listed real estate companies. Thanks to extensive data collection and geomatics work, we are able to construct indicators measuring the quality of the location of the buildings in the real estate portfolio of a group of European listed real estate companies. These indicators, once aggregated at the level of each REITs, enable us to mobilize the literature on factor models (CAPM, Fama-french) to construct a location factor. This location factor is econometrically tested to assess its ability to explain the risk premium of European REITs. The results obtained through GMM estimation are differentiated by company size. The location factor is highly significant for properties in the two largest size deciles, but insignificant for those in the smallest. We then adopt a rolling regression approach to study the evolution of the location factor over time, and compare it with that of market beta. The joint evolution of the two factors seems to suggest the existence of a regime change over the period, with the inflection point occurring around 2005. Prior to this date, location beta and market beta appear to have had similar levels. After 2005, the spread between the two betas seems to increase significantly. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; factors; Quality; REITs |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_64 |
| By: | Shinicihiro Iwata; Masatomo Suzuki; Yukutake Norifumi |
| Abstract: | This paper finds that inheritors of a parental home who live nearby tend to prolong the vacancy, particularly in low-density areas, with similar patterns observed in areas experiencing negative population growth. This phenomenon arises because inheritors living farther away face higher costs associated with visiting for property management, while those living in close proximity incur relatively lower costs. To explore this, the paper examines how vacancy duration is influenced by the distance between the inheritor's residence and the inherited home, as this distance affects the visitation cost. To address potential omitted variable bias, such as emotional attachment to the parental home or siblings, we use an instrumental variable method. Variation in migration patterns provides an exogenous source of variation in distance, since individuals from the same region often move to similar destinations, and this is unlikely to be linked to vacancy duration. The results demonstrate a negative association between vacancy duration and distance. Specifically, when the inherited parental home is located in a low-density area, a 10-kilometer decrease in distance leads to a 1-month increase in vacancy duration. |
| Keywords: | Empty houses; inheritance; Japan; Vacancy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_92 |
| By: | Martin Regnaud; Julie Le Gallo |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the dynamics of rental market tightness in Ile-de-France, leveraging user-generated data from the SeLoger platform to provide near-real-time insights.Using an original dataset of over 85, 000 unique rental listings from April 2023 to June 2024, it introduces three novel indicators—email alerts, contact requests, and transformation rates—to capture renters preferences and search intensity. The analysis identifies key market drivers, highlighting intense demand for small, unfurnished apartments, and emphasizes how rising mortgage rates since 2022 have exacerbated competition in the rental market. Employing machine learning models with explainability techniques, the study reveals the interplay of variables related to apartment characteristics, economic conditions, and spatial context in shaping market tightness. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for platform-specific effects, such as listing visibility and listing quality, to achieve an accurate understanding of market dynamics. This research contributes to understanding housing market dynamics and informs policies aimed at mitigating rental market frictions. |
| Keywords: | French Rental market; Housing Market Tightness; Machine Learning; Real Estate Market Platform |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_131 |
| By: | Koller, Julian; Stefanova, Stefani |
| Abstract: | We leverage a novel spatial IV approach to develop a reduced-form estimator that maps local trade shocks into aggregate outcomes, accounting for inter-regional spillovers. For the China shock in the U.S., we find strong evidence for employment spillovers at the local level, which appear to propagate through input-output linkages rather than labor mobility. They shift the shock’s employment ramifications away from the Pacific and North Atlantic towards the South Atlantic region. For aggregate employment, our model rationalizes the 30% difference between Autor et al. (2013) and the structural follow-up literature but implies that it is insignificant from a statistical standpoint. |
| Keywords: | Trade Flows, Local Labor Markets, Import Competition |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126772 |
| By: | Sven Damen; Matthijs Korevaar; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
| Abstract: | Residential properties with the lowest rent levels provide the highest investment returns to their owners. Using detailed rent, cost, and price data from the United States, Belgium, and The Netherlands, we show that this phenomenon holds across housing markets and time. If anything, low-rent units hedge business cycle risk. We also find no evidence for differential regulatory risk exposure. We document segmentation of investors, with large corporate landlords shying away from the low-tier segment possibly for reputational reasons. Financial constraints prevent renters from purchasing their property and medium-sized landlords from scaling up, sustaining excess risk-adjusted returns. Low-income tenants ultimately pay the price for this segmentation in the form of a high rent burden. |
| Keywords: | Affordable Housing; Market Segmentation; Rental market; risk and return in housing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_201 |
| By: | Maria Chondrokouki; Andrianos Tsekrekos |
| Abstract: | This study examines the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model on market values from the residential property market of Greece. Using transaction-level real estate data from the Property Transfer Value Registry, that range from 2017 to 2024, we provide evidence of the existence of real options premia in recent land transaction prices from the Greek real estate market. More specifically, we compare land values from a discounted cash flow approach, which does not consider the option to wait to develop, with the values from a real options model. Our results show that land transactions in our sample seem to reflect a premium for the option to wait. Therefore, a model which incorporates this option has explanatory power on observed prices over and above the intrinsic value from a discounted cash flow approach. Our study focuses on the recovery period of the residential property market after the financial crisis, which is characterized by a lack of supply of new residences and increased demand, partly fueled by the expansion of the short-term rental market and significant foreign investment. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to utilize the dataset from the Property Transfer Value Registry, which is the only available database of transactions in the Greek property market, in order to test the predictions of a real options model. |
| Keywords: | Development; Greek real estate market; Real Options; Urban land values |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_45 |
| By: | Balboni, Clare; Shapiro, Joseph S |
| Abstract: | How do environmental goods and policies shape spatial patterns of economic activity? How will climate change modify these impacts over the coming decades? How do agglomeration, commuting, and other spatial forces and policies affect environmental quality? We distill theoretical and empirical research linking urban, regional, and spatial economics to the environment. We present stylized facts on spatial environmental economics, describe insights from canonical environmental models and spatial models, and discuss the building blocks for papers and the research frontier in enviro-spatial economics. Most enviro-spatial research remains bifurcated into either primarily environmental or spatial papers. Research is only beginning to realize potential insights from more closely combining spatial and environmental approaches. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt15j5r23s |
| By: | Mingzhi Hu; Zhenguo Lin; Yingchun Liu |
| Abstract: | Existing literature suggests that homeowners are relatively less mobile across geographic locations and experience longer periods of unemployment compared to renters. This paper investigates the relationship between homeownership and commuting time to work. We first develop a theoretical model to demonstrate that higher housing prices lead to extended commutes to work for homeowners due to “drive-’til-you-qualify for mortgages”. Utilizing data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we provide evidence indicating that homeowners, on average, spend 6.9 percent more time commuting compared to renters, after controlling for observables. Our results remain robust after considering endogeneity issues, unobservable household characteristics, and functional misspecifications. In addition, we also find that the effect is more pronounced among households residing in metropolitan areas, minority households, and those with lower income and wealth. Subsidizing homeownership in the U.S. is often justified by its presumed economic and social benefits. However, this paper sheds light on a potential negative externality of homeownership: longer commutes to work. |
| Keywords: | Commute; Homeownership; Mobility |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_6 |
| By: | Guillaume Toussaint; Arnaud Simon |
| Abstract: | Rent control is a much talked-about measure in France. By 2026, rent control should be extended to all so-called “tensed” areas, where there is a structural shortage of housing supply in relation to high demand. Economic literature has extensively studied the effects of rent control, documenting a large number of positive and negative effects. However, to our knowledge, no paper has directly studied the effect of rent control on rental and capital returns. Using machine learning methods to appraise rental returns with 2 main databases, we estimate a difference in differences model to test the effect of rent control on rents, capital returns and rental returns. We show that the introduction of rent control in Lille, France, led to i) an increase in rents for the largest properties ii) a decrease in capital returns for all properties iii) an increase in rental returns for the largest one. Thus, we show that rent control led to lower housing capitalization rather than a general decline in rents or rental returns. |
| Keywords: | Capital returns; Diff in Diff; Rent Control; Rental returns |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_30 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Hans R. A. Koster; Tu Giang Vu |
| Abstract: | Property transaction prices are widely regarded as the best measure of property value, but are sometimes unavailable. Using data from the Netherlands and New York, we analyze whether list prices and assessed values are reliable substitutes. In the cross-section, both proxies strongly predict sales prices, and estimated hedonic implicit prices resemble those based on sales prices. Over time, there is a sluggish adjustment in both proxies, but much more so in assessed valuesâ€"particularly when they are based on rental incomes. While assessed values are well-suited for cross-sectional hedonic modelling or the quantification of static quantitative spatial models, list prices are better suited for the estimation of hedonic implicit prices from variation over time, although some attenuation bias should be expected. |
| Keywords: | assessed values, list prices, sales prices, transaction prices, hedonic pricing, historic amenities, wind turbines, solar farms, transit accessibility |
| Date: | 2025–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2137 |
| By: | Victor Lavy; Assaf Yancu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of classroom exposure to peers with a history of violent behavior on academic achievement and the underlying mechanisms. This measure of peer violence departs significantly from earlier studies that measured potential peer violence based on the background characteristics of students. We exploit idiosyncratic treatment variations during the transition from primary to middle school for causal identification. We find that a higher proportion of violent peers negatively affects cognitive performance in tests in various subjects, particularly pronounced in mathematics and English, compared to Hebrew and science. These effects are more pronounced in girls than in boys. While boys’ performance is negatively influenced only by the presence of violent male peers, girls are adversely affected by both violent male and female peers. As for mechanisms, violent peers disrupt learning environments and lower teachers’ productivity, reflected in lower job satisfaction and perception of higher workloads. Violent peers also significantly increase the likelihood of other students engaging in physical fights, and reduce their homework time, especially for girls and students from low SES. |
| JEL: | I25 J0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34482 |
| By: | Ana Luiza Nabuco (Cedeplar/UFMG and EHESS); Luiza A. Paixão (IBGE); Marcelo de B. Brandão (consultor independente); Renan P. Almeira (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This article presents a pioneering estimate of tax evasion on residential rental income in Brazil. The topic gains importance amid transformations in real estate markets and the global rise in families living in rented homes. Results are based on the cross-referencing of three databases: unprecedented access to Federal Revenue records (DIMOB), the Demographic Census, and the Family Budget Survey (POF). Tax evasion is measured through two indicators: tax evasion and contractual informality, both showing extremely high levels in terms of the number of rentals and the value of income. Strong regional heterogeneity is observed, with higher rates in capitals of the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions and in the country’s interior. In capitals alone, about 3.7 million rental properties are not reported to tax authorities. These findings raise important debates on income and property inequality, given the concentration of rental income among high-income groups and the significant share of rent payments made by low-income households. The potential for additional tax revenue is considerable: undeclared rental income is estimated between R$65 and R$215 billion annually. Informal rentals thus represent the prevailing pattern in Brazil, revealing a significant and often overlooked dimension of the informal economy. |
| Keywords: | tax evasion, taxation, rent, real estate market, informality |
| JEL: | H2 H24 H26 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td687 |
| By: | Dadgar, Iman (Center for educational leadership and excellence, Stockholm School of Economics, Swedish institute for Social research (SOFI), Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the influence of students’ ordinal positions in the distribution of grades in their ninth-grade school cohort on subsequent educational and labor market outcomes using population-wide data for Sweden. The identification strategy uses differences between students’ ranks in their school and their ranks in the country-wide ability distribution after conditioning on school-cohort fixed effects and school-level grade distributions. The findings reveal an advantage of occupying a higher rank in school with respect to educational and labor market accomplishments in adulthood, whereas a lower rank yields adverse consequences. Contrary to findings from the United States, no effect is found for students situated in the middle of the rank distribution. This study also shows that ordinal rank effects are more pronounced for students with lower socio-economic status and for female students at the top of their school ability distribution. This study highlights the importance of students’ rank positions in determining their future academic and professional outcomes. |
| Keywords: | education; income; ordinal rank; peer effects |
| JEL: | I20 I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_021 |
| By: | Yumou Wang; Siu Kei Wong |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between housing policy interventions and market returns in China with a novel policy index. Using natural language processing techniques, we construct a sentence-level policy index based on government policy documents from 2008 to 2024. The policy index identifies three loosening periods and two tightening periods in Chinese housing market. We find that the policy index is associated with higher long-term housing returns. The mechanism analysis shows that policy effects on housing returns are transmitted primarily through supply channels (44%) and demand channels (16%). Notably, our findings reveal that only loosening measures are effective in stabilizing housing returns. Granger causality tests uncover an asymmetric temporal relationship: while housing returns Granger-cause policy changes across all time horizons, policy interventions demonstrate causality only for long-term housing returns, suggesting a delayed impact of policy implementation on market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Housing Policy; Housing return; Machine Learning; Natural Language Processing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_261 |
| By: | Craig Haberstumpf; Anita Pennathur |
| Abstract: | We investigate the Equity Duration Hypothesis (EDH) utilizing dividend yield as a proxy for Equity Duration (ED) in the context of real estate investment trusts (REITs). Consistent with prior research, we find abundant evidence supporting the expectations of the EDH, i.e., that dividend yield has a negative correlation with volatility. However, we also find overwhelming contradictory and ambiguous evidence indicating that a previously strong negative relationship has disappeared, and a strengthening positive one has emerged. Although we found payers to be consistently less volatile than the very small number of nonpayers, the relationship between volatility and dividend yield appears unstable across time periods and within portfolios sorted on size, style, and other factors. Our results varied based on the measurement of dividend yield, with a more restrictive measure containing only regular quarterly dividends delivering results more supportive of the EDH than those of more inclusive measures. |
| Keywords: | dividend policy; REITs; Volatility |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_188 |
| By: | Yuta Kuroda; Shinpei Sano |
| Abstract: | This study examines the potential of mobile phone location data for measuring working hours. We compare hourly population estimates from Mobile Spatial Statistics with card-reader attendance records of teachers at Japanese public high schools. The analysis shows a strong correlation between location-based indicators and actual working hours. Mobile data provide more accurate proxies in areas with few residents, where background noise is limited, and in schools with many employees. These results suggest that large-scale mobility data can serve as a valuable resource for labor research when direct administrative records are not accessible. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:dssraa:149 |
| By: | Marius Müller; Carsten Lausberg |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming an integral part of everyday processes in the real estate industry. In real estate valuation, AI has long been used for automated valuations, but so far rarely for manual valuations. One reason for the reluctant adoption is the complex and know-ledge-intensive process that requires the careful evaluation of numerous factors. This paper investigates for condominiums whether AI can improve manual real estate valuations by redu-cing time and enhancing accuracy. To address this question, we first provide a comprehensive review of the current literature on AI applications in real estate valuation and discuss the po-tential advantages and drawbacks of integrating AI into valuation practices. Then we present the results of an experiment in which the 28 participants were asked to appraise an apartment using either an AI-supported tool or a conventional Excel-based tool. Performance indicators show that the AI tool significantly reduces time and inter-valuer variability, while valuation ac-curacy is largely unaffected. The insights gained from this analysis contribute to understanding the practical applicability of AI in real estate valuation and highlight opportunities for further research and industry adoption. |
| Keywords: | Appraisal; Artificial Intelligence; Real Estate Valuation; valuation accuracy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_216 |
| By: | Ching-Yi Chen |
| Abstract: | The reasons behind people’s attachment to their residential areas are diverse and complex. Traditional empirical studies often use satisfaction with the living environment as the dependent variable, employing general ordered probit models for analysis. However, this approach overlooks the fact that individuals are embedded in their environments, thereby disregarding the influence of ‘group-level’ environmental contextual factors. This study proposes the use of a hierarchical ordered probit model to examine how age cohorts perceive their residential environments while being embedded in broader contextual factors. It also considers the impact of the ‘local support rate’ to determine whether regional factors, proximity to original residences, and family relationships significantly influence individuals’ attachment to their living environments. By employing a hierarchical ordered probit model to analyse residents’ attitudes toward their living environments, this study accounts for the embedded relationship between individuals and their environments. It also adheres to the assumption of independently and identically distributed errors in regression analysis. This approach enables a clearer identification of the key regional factors affecting residential satisfaction. The findings can provide local governments with precise recommendations for regional development and enhance the quality of life for residents. |
| Keywords: | contextual variable; local support rate; Place; Quality of Life |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_60 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti; Ropponen, Olli |
| Abstract: | Abstract High-skilled immigration has consistently demonstrated positive effects on firm performance, innovation, and productivity, while generally avoiding adverse impacts on native wages or employment. Consequently, many countries offer preferential tax schemes for highly skilled migrants. Recent research from the Netherlands provides compelling evidence on the impact of such schemes. In 2012, the Dutch system underwent reform, replacing a subjective “scarce skills” eligibility criterion with a transparent and relatively low income threshold. This reform significantly increased migration among mid-level earners, illustrating that migration reacts strongly to increased net-of-tax income and underscoring the importance of clear, predictable rules. We suggest that Finland should extend tax relief for highly skilled immigrants beyond the highest earners and consider implementing graduated rates. |
| Keywords: | Skilled Immigration, Preferential Tax Scheme, Migration Elasticity, Key Employee Act, Finland, Netherlands |
| JEL: | J61 J31 D24 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:168 |
| By: | Elias Oikarinen; Steven Bourassa; Martin Hoesli |
| Abstract: | Housing prices can be decomposed into two parts: the value of physical structure and the value of land upon which the structure stands. Extant empirical evidence indicates that real land values tend to be volatile and respond significantly to changes in housing demand. In contrast, real structure values generally are stable over the long run. These observations results in a prediction that, in a growing economy, the share of land value of total housing prices increases as time passes, because of which the income elasticity of housing prices trends upwards over time. We apply the long historical time series for housing prices and GDP provided by Knoll et al. (2017) and Jorda et al. macrohistory database to investigate the long-run trends in the income elasticity of housing prices at the country-level for a number of developed countries. We estimate time-variation in the elasticity with FMOLS using rolling estimation windows. The empirical results are in line with our a priori expectations: For all the 11 countries for which sufficiently long time series are available, the sensitivity of housing prices w.r.t. GDP has exhibited a significant growth trend over the long run. The findings suggest that housing prices become more and more volatile as the economy grows – unless the real economy becomes less cyclical. |
| Keywords: | Housing Prices; Income elasticity; price cycles |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_123 |
| By: | Mascioli, Lorenzo; Leek, Lauren Caroline (European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | The scholarly literature on development projects primarily focuses on implementation and outcomes, yet little is known about how projects are designed and funded. This study addresses this gap by investigating how local communities initiate development projects. We propose that communities learn from their geographic neighbors and past experiences, with local administrative capacity moderating this learning process. Using data from Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan, we find robust evidence of positive spatial and temporal effects and a significant interaction between temporal effects and administrative capacity. Additional evidence from project descriptions and interviews with beneficiaries elucidates the mechanisms driving these effects. |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k27ax_v1 |
| By: | Justin Benefield; Matt Flynn; Sean Salter |
| Abstract: | Using REITs as a laboratory to isolate the advisory role of the board of directors, we determine that directors with executive or governance experience in finance and accounting create significant value. Adding “high-value” directors is associated with an increase in monthly returns of between 1.1% and 2%, along with a 50-basis point increase in risk-adjusted return. Cumulative abnormal returns indicate that high-value directors are added to underperforming REITs, and results hold when controlling for endogeneity. High-value board members increase capital use efficiency, sell underperforming properties, and focus future investments on outperforming submarkets, while having higher pay-to-performance sensitivity and shorter tenure than average directors. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Governance; Real Estate Investment Trusts; Real Estate Operating Companies; Textual Analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_76 |
| By: | Bing Zhu; Dorinth van Dijk; Dennis Bonam; Gavin Goy |
| Abstract: | The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) and their international spillovers to global asset prices and capital flows have dominated policy discussions. This paper is the first to document the effect of UMP on global commercial real estate (CRE) markets. Even though the size of CRE as asset class is substantial, the subject has received very limited interest in research studying the effect of monetary policy. We empirically find that a domestic UMP significantly impacts US CRE pricing through credit supply. We additionally document persistent price effects on foreign non-US CRE markets. This effect largely stems from global CRE market spillovers. In fact, global CRE market spillovers are found to amplify the original domestic UMP effect on US CRE prices. We aim to enrich our empirical findings with a two-country DSGE-model that includes CRE pricing. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; International Spillovers; Quantitative Easing; Unconventional Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_180 |
| By: | Giuseppe Rocco (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Ludovica Loiacono (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Susanna Mancinelli (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Massimiliano Mazzanti (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Maddalena Nonato (Università degli studi di Ferrara); Emilio Paolo Visentin (Università degli studi di Ferrara) |
| Abstract: | This study applies insights from behavioural economics to examine the challenges surrounding the adoption of the Walking School Bus (WSB), a sustainable school transportation initiative. Using thematic analysis of interviews with schoolteachers in Ferrara, Italy, we identify three key themes influencing participation: Service Characteristics, Family Determinants, and School Context. Our analysis reveals that behavioural mechanisms—such as status quo bias and the collective action problem related to volunteer recruitment—pose significant barriers to adoption, even in the face of broad recognition of the program’s benefits. The findings suggest that addressing these behavioural obstacles requires targeted interventions aimed at mitigating cognitive biases and improving decision-making processes that currently hinder participation. This research offers empirical evidence that successful implementation depends on a nuanced understanding of the interaction between practical design features and deep-seated psychological barriers that shape family mobility choices. These insights contribute to behavioural theory and offer practical guidance for promoting sustainable transport behaviours in urban settings. |
| Keywords: | walking school bus, behavioural economics, thematic analysis, implementation challenges, sustainable mobility |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:1025 |
| By: | Marianne Wyrwoll; Elisabeth Beusker |
| Abstract: | A multitude of profitability indicators are at the disposal of the construction and property industry for the purpose of evaluating the profitability of construction projects. These indicators offer a comprehensive overview, enabling the synthesis of important information. Nevertheless, the application of profitability indicators also results in the compression of data, potentially leading to the loss of crucial information. The failure to consider prospective developments in property development decisions can incur substantial risks. As part of the research, profitability indicators were analysed with regard to their application contexts in real estate development. A total of 249 real estate developers in Germany were surveyed on the use of profitability indicators in the project business. In addition, data was collected on the respective companies, on the employees responsible for the application of the indicators, and on the specific projects. Overall, 63 profitability indicators were identified. The findings indicate that the application of indicators is not solely based on their target orientation, but that alternative factors also influence the application of profitability indicators. The objective of this study is twofold: firstly, to ascertain the application of these indicators in the context of real estate development, and secondly, to identify inaccuracies in the application. |
| Keywords: | application context; profitability indicators; Real Estate Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_164 |
| By: | Jack Britton (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Nick Ridpath (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Carmen Villa (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ben Waltmann (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/54 |
| By: | Vivek Sah; Amrik Singh |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of risk retention rules on commercial mortgage loan underwriting. Using a difference-in-difference framework and a large sample of 63, 153 non-agency and agency loans that were securitized between 2010 and 2019, this study provides further evidence of the magnitude and extent to which risk retention rules led to changes in loan quality and commercial mortgage loan underwriting before and after their implementation. Using ratios such as loan-to-value ratio, debt service coverage ratio, debt yield ratio, and credit spread to measure changes in loan quality and underwriting metrics, we find a significant impact of risk retention rules on commercial mortgage underwriting. Controlling for various property, loan, and market characteristics and fixed effects, the study finds that risk retention is associated with significantly lower interest rates, credit spreads, loan-to-value ratios and higher debt service coverage ratios and debt yield ratios. Further, the evidence indicates significant variation across property types following rule implementation. Finally, the results reveal significant differences in the risk retention shape adopted by sponsors and its relationship with underwriting criteria. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Credit Spread; Mortgage Loan Underwriting; Risk Retention |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_301 |
| By: | Marzia Morena; Tommaso Truppi |
| Abstract: | Limited funds for public works and bureaucratic limitations in the allocation of public money push Public Administrations to identify different way to collect additional resources in order to finance projects and social activities. Innovative alternative instruments as civic crowdfunding could be helpful to ease this critical situation in different fields of intervention, from social impact schemes to the preservation and enhancement of environment and the cultural heritage. Civic crowdfunding could provide public authorities with a transparent decision-making process for implementing these projects, giving citizens the opportunity to contribute. This paper highlights the potentialities of civic crowdfunding related to small Italian municipalities, including some case studies, pointing out its strengths and weaknesses, starting from an analysis carried out by the Permanent Observatory on Local Public Administration (OPPAL) of the REC Real Estate Center of the ABC Department of Politecnico di Milano. |
| Keywords: | Civic Crowdfunding; small Italian municipalities |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_21 |
| By: | Marbach, Moritz |
| Abstract: | Internal migration, a common phenomenon in all countries, reshapes political geography by altering both the composition and preferences of local electorates, with significant implications for electoral outcomes. Despite increasing research on the political consequences of internal migration, there is little guidance on how to disentangle compositional from exposure effects when analyzing the causal effect of internal migration on district-level outcomes. In this paper, we define compositional effects within a standard potential outcome model, and we demonstrate that compositional and exposure effects jointly constitute the total causal effect of internal migration. We discuss potential avenues to identify, bound, and estimate compositional effects, leveraging additional data and assumptions. To illustrate the importance of disentangling compositional from exposure effects, we analyze the exodus of East Germans to West Germany shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, demonstrating how out-migration to West Germany shaped electoral outcomes in East Germany through compositional effects. |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pq3bd_v1 |
| By: | Yue Zhang |
| Abstract: | Extreme heat waves diminish workers’ productivity, impair cognitive performance, and can lead to economic losses. Unlike acute climate disasters that are event-driven, chronic risks like heat waves are widespread and enduring, making it challenging to identify exogenous variation. The susceptibility of commercial properties to heat stress remains insufficiently explored. Furthermore, green buildings, recognized for increasing indoor comfort and reducing energy consumption, may offer a mitigating effect against extreme heat. However, limited studies have examined the differential impact of climate-related shocks on green versus non-green buildings. This research aims to fill this gap by examining how location-specific heat exposure impacts commercial property value across both green and non-green categories. Our analysis employs granular data on temperature, energy consumption, sustainable features, and transaction records. Leveraging ground-level temperature data from 40 weather stations and 30-meter resolution rasters, particularly for Hong Kong, we construct a high-resolution dataset of location-various temperature exposure across the city. We measure abnormal temperature exposure at each property’s location and apply a difference-in-difference method to quantify the treatment effect of heat stress. This study contributes to understanding chronic climate risk in commercial real estate and the role of sustainability in asset valuation. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; extreme heat; Green Buildings |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_239 |
| By: | Alain Coen; Aurelie Desfleurs |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to investigate the potential impact of US REITs geographic concentration on the accuracy and bias of financial analysts’ earnings (and FFO) forecasts. Using a unique property-level dataset, we analyze from 2000 to 2023 the impact of geographic concentration on the relative performances of real estate investments trusts (REITs). We use different metrics to measure the level of geographic concentration. First, we document the coverage, the accuracy and the bias of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts on «concentrated» and «diversified» REITs. Our results report that the level of accuracy and the level of optimism are statistically different for these two categories, and statistically related to concentration indices. Second, we focus on the different geographic concentration indices as potential determinants of financial analysts’ forecasts accuracy and bias. Our empirical results shed new light on the relative importance of the level of geographic concentration, or home bias at home, since the early 2000’s and the US REITs maturity era, on the complexity of financial analysts’ forecasts, suggesting implications for asset managers, investors and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Financial analystsâ; REITs |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_172 |
| By: | Almås, Ingvild (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Caeyers, Bet (CMI - Chr. Michelsen Institute); Dautheville, Adrien (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Kazi, Vivian (Economic and Social Research Foundation); Krutikova, Sonya (Faculty of Humanities, University of Manchester); Somville, Vincent (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | The transition from school to the labor market presents significant challenges. This is particularly the case in low- and middle-income countries where the youth population attending primary and secondary school is expanding rapidly and overoptimism combined with limited information can lead to suboptimal decision-making regarding further education and other career preparation choices. We design and test through a cluster-randomized controlled trial a scalable low-cost intervention designed to help secondary school students in Tanzania develop hopeful yet realistic career plans. This is done through a structured, edutainment podcast series and teacher-led classroom discussions. We show that treated students perform better academically, with a significant increase in national exam success and a higher likelihood of selection into further education. Additionally, self-employment rates and income levels increase. These outcomes are plausibly driven by enhanced hope—characterized by improved agency and pathway clarity—, by an increase in the likelihood of developing b-plans, and by a reduction in stress. Our findings highlight the potential of structured guidance through edutainment in improving the transition from secondary school. |
| Keywords: | School-to-labor-market transition; Low- and middle-income countries; Decision-making; Cluster-randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_019 |
| By: | Marijana Sreckovic; Bernhard Wurdinger |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the potential of blockchain technology for real estate development, focusing on the economic, legal, and technical conditions necessary for implementing tokenization in this sector. Real estate development is traditionally a high-risk and capital-intensive activity, often characterized by expensive financing and lengthy project timelines. Blockchain technology offers a promising solution by enabling the division of property ownership and preliminary project development into digital tokens, allowing for more efficient financing and liquidity. The study examines the conditions under which tokenization can be implemented in real estate projects, explores suitable token structures, and analyzes its impact on the project conception phase. It also considers how the type and intended use of a property influence tokenization strategies. Through expert interviews, the empirical analysis identifies potential applications and challenges. The findings suggest that blockchain technology holds significant potential for transforming real estate development, creating new business models, and enhancing efficiency. However, the successful standardization of tokenization requires its integration into the entire project development process. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain technology; Financing; New business models; tokenization |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_157 |
| By: | Harun Tanrivermis; Monsurat Ayojimi Salami |
| Abstract: | Housing affordability has been a significant global challenge, with macroeconomic factors identified as contributors. The ongoing trend of housing unaffordability indicates that merely recognising this issue is insufficient; it necessitates the formulation of appropriate policies to tackle these challenges. This study examines the rising trend of housing unaffordability, although shelter is a fundamental amenity that should be adequately addressed. Furthermore, uncertainty inherent in the country’s economy has exacerbated the situation. This study will adopt a quantitative approach, using the housing price index as the dependent variable. Independent variables will include inflation, exchange rate, policy interest rate, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, unemployment rate, mortgage rate, age of a house, number of bedrooms, economic growth rate - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), construction permits, and money supply. The study will employ the VAR model to establish relationships between the house price index (HPI) and macroeconomic variables through shocks. The magnitude and direction of these shocks will form the basis for deriving necessary policy suggestions to address housing unaffordability in Turkey. Consequently, the findings are anticipated to pave the way for policy recommendations to overcome these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability; Macroeconomic variables; Turkish housing markets; VAR modelling |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_286 |
| By: | Precious A. Brenni |
| Abstract: | The rapid advancement of technology, including generative AI, presents new challenges to active student involvement in the learning process. This study investigates whether playful learning, using LEGO® as a tool, enhances student engagement in Real Estate Finance, an undergraduate module at Durham University. Data comes from an anonymous student survey, following the completion of the workshop-based playful learning activities. Initial findings indicate that playful learning is a fun but not frivolous pedagogic approach, fostering individual involvement and active collaboration. The results also show no significant differences in satisfaction levels across gender and student status, highlighting the potential of playful learning to create more inclusive study spaces. Further, the findings suggest that playful learning and generative AI can be effectively combined to align with the fast-evolving educational landscape. Overall, this study hints at the need to go beyond conventional teaching methods and adopt approaches that support more engaging and inclusive learning experiences in (real estate) education. |
| Keywords: | Engagement; Learn; LEGO®; Play |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_205 |
| By: | Singh, Anuj Pratap (Central Bank of Ireland); Yao, Fang (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | We examine key borrower level outcomes transmitted through Ireland’s 2023 recalibration of the loan-to-income (LTI) limit for first-time buyers (FTBs), which increased the cap from 3.5 to 4. Employing identifying assumptions and propensity score matching on granular mortgage data, we compare the exposed FTBs (the treatment group) and second/subsequent buyers (SSBs, the control group) using a difference-in-differences design. Our findings show that the LTI easing led to an increase in credit for borrowers who were likely most affected by the limit, but this additional credit was used differently in Greater Dublin Area versus the Rest of the Country. Moreover, the LTI allowances (lending above the LTI limit) played an important role in facilitating access for lower-income borrowers before the easing, and we provide evidence that in the new framework, these borrowers are being facilitated credit as a result of the higher LTI limit, in line with the intended policy outcome. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential measures, LTI, LTV, mortgage, house price, leverage, borrower liquidity. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:13/rt/25 |
| By: | Chu, Angus C. |
| Abstract: | Early humans undertook multiple waves of migration out of Africa and back to the continent. We explore prehistoric human migration in a two-region Malthusian growth model. Whether migration occurs depends on the migration cost, relative population size, relative land supply and relative hunting-gathering productivity between regions. Suppose one region is initially uninhabited. Then, a lower migration cost leads to migration and a larger human population. Back migration occurs when hunting-gathering productivity and supply of natural resources in the foreign region decrease relative to the home region, which provides an economic rationale for the multi-directional "shuttle dispersal model" of prehistoric human migration out of and back to Africa. |
| Keywords: | Prehistoric human migration; Malthusian growth theory |
| JEL: | O15 O44 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126606 |
| By: | Sophia Bodensteiner; Lukas Lautenschlaeger; Wolfgang Schäfers; Andrew Mueller |
| Abstract: | The integration of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors in Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) analysis is increasingly recognized as a key element in sustainable investing. It can create long-term value, improve reputation, and help REITs to remain competitive and resilient in the market. This study investigates the influence of ESG-related sentiment on the constituents of the NAREIT Index, addressing the growing need to understand its impact on the public opinion and the real estate market performance. Our analysis examines 10-K reports with an additional focus on ESG-related segments and separate ESG reports of real estate companies in the NAREIT All Equity Index in the period 2016-2023. The sentiment analysis is carried out using a Large Language Model (LLM) and aggregated using different sentiment measures. Finally, an OLS regression is applied to analyze the impact of these sentiment indices on the returns of the companies. Preliminary results indicate a correlation between ESG-related sentiment in the company reports and their price returns. This indicates the recognition of ESG as an investment driver for institutional investors. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Disclosure; Esg; REITs; Sentiment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_151 |
| By: | Sven Rehers |
| Abstract: | The demographic shift and the limitations of Germany’s pay-as-you-go pension system underscore the growing importance of private long-term wealth accumulation. Open-ended real estate funds (OEREFs) may serve as a useful instrument in this context, offering access to broadly diversified property portfolios with relatively stable returns.This paper aims to examine the potential role of OEREFs in long-term wealth building for private investors. Based on a mean-variance optimization framework, it will analyze how the inclusion of OEREFs affects the efficiency of mixed-asset portfolios over time. In addition to return and volatility metrics, the study will incorporate shortfall risk measures and conduct stress tests to assess the robustness of different allocation strategies under varying market conditions. Simulations will be based on historical data on returns, volatilities, and asset correlations.By exploring how OEREFs can contribute to a stable and resilient accumulation of capital, the paper seeks to generate actionable insights for the design of long-term investment strategies tailored to the needs of individual investors. |
| Keywords: | Germany's Pension System; Home Equity Release; Pension Gap |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_199 |
| By: | Grazyna Wiejak-Roy |
| Abstract: | Real estate valuation, despite using well defined methods and techniques, is often referred to as arts. The valuers use specific property and market characteristics and valuation is a mere result of the quantification of the impact of such characteristics. While the real estate market transparency is improving with the availability of reliable data (JLL, 2024; Ache et al., 2024), the current mainstream standards and guidelines on the quality of inputs used for valuation are still inconsistent creating confusion around how to deal with the lack or poor quality of market data. This research provides a comprehensive review of key resources available to valuers that provide details on the degrees of reliance on various types of inputs. These resources include standards and guidelines published by the International Valuation Standards Council, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, The European Group of Valuer’s Associations, the International Accounting Standards Board and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority. The research identifies gaps and inconsistencies across the various resources and provides recommendations on how they could be addressed to minimise ambiguities and ensure consistency in real estate valuation. |
| Keywords: | hierarchy of evidence; inputs; Standards; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_9 |
| By: | Hanno Foerster (Boston College); Robert Ulbricht (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | We develop a spatial directed search model to study job search and migration among dual-earner households. Using the model, we decompose observed gender gaps into exogenous gender differences, which are amplified by a “colocation friction” that is unique to dual-earner households. Estimated for the U.S. labor market, the colocation friction reduces women’s long-term migration gains by 19% and discourages mobility, particularly among “power couples”. The rise of remote work mitigates this friction, cutting average earnings losses by up to 50%. |
| Keywords: | dual-earner job search, gender inequality, migration, remote work, search friction |
| JEL: | E24 J16 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1103 |
| By: | Dimitris Karlis; Michalis Doumpos; Dimitrios Papastamos; Ilias Liapikos |
| Abstract: | Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations are playing an increasingly significant role in real estate, influencing various aspects of the industry. This talk focuses on the impact of ESG factors—primarily environmental and social (ES) rather than governance (G)—on property valuation, particularly in the context of automated valuation models (AVMs). The scope of the research is twofold. Initially, we propose the development of an ESG index/score for properties, incorporating relevant characteristics, and explore how this score can be use into AVMs. The score takes into account property specific characteristics related to environmental factors but also social characteristics mostly related to the location of the property. Our findings suggest that ESG score positively influences the predictive accuracy of AVMs, indicating that the market indeed accounts for these aspects while considering property pricing. Additionally, we examine alternative proxies for environmental characteristics in valuation, such as the Environmental Performance Certificate, which is becoming increasingly relevant in recent years. Real data from a financial institution in Greece are used to demonstrate the methodology |
| Keywords: | automatic valuation; econometric models; environmental and social; Enviuronment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_282 |
| By: | Ka Man Leung; Yu Cheung Wong; Kin Kwok Lai; Dah Ming Chiu |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a pioneer longitudinal rental analysis of sub-divided units (SDUs) in Hong Kong, employing first-hand data collected from surveys conducted across five time points between 2017 and 2023. Five widely used machine learning algorithms, multiple linear regression, random forest, decision tree, support vector regression and gradient boosting algorithm, are employed. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing the SDU rental values, focusing on variables including physical facilities, locational characteristics, and temporal trends. The longitudinal nature of the data allows for an examination of how rental values have changed over time. As SDU data with detailed internal characteristics are not publicly available, this study provides timely information and insights for the informal housing market and social welfare policy development, contributing to informed decision-making in addressing housing challenges. |
| Keywords: | Informal Housing; rental analyses; sub-divided units; time series analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_137 |
| By: | Arianna Salazar-Miranda |
| Abstract: | The growth of suburbs in the US has led to significant sustainability challenges; yet, it remains unclear whether these challenges stem from the remoteness of suburbs from city centers or the specific designs used to develop them. This paper examines how Garden City Design (GCD) -- one of the most influential suburban design paradigms since the early 20th century -- impacts the social and environmental outcomes of neighborhoods. I first introduce a composite measure of GCD, derived from street layouts and block configurations, to quantify its nationwide adoption. I use this measure combined with mobility and emissions data to estimate the impact of GCD on neighborhood outcomes using complementary identification strategies, including ordinary least squares (OLS), matching estimators, and an instrumental variables (IV) approach that exploits historical variation in GCD adoption. Results show that GCD leads to worse sustainability outcomes, including increased greenhouse gas emissions, greater social isolation, and higher sedentary behavior. The prevalence of GCD accounts for 27-38% of the adverse effects associated with suburbanization, underscoring the crucial role that neighborhood design plays in shaping urban sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13544 |
| By: | Krzysztof Kowalke |
| Abstract: | Capital allocation in the real estate market requires extensive knowledge and expertise. Investors can engage in this process either directly or through Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). While numerous REITs operate in the market, their investment strategies often exhibit only minor differences, making the selection of suitable entities for an investment portfolio challenging. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of selected investment strategies in the U.S. REIT market. Using data on the rates of return of individual REITs listed on public capital markets in the U.S., the returns generated by selected investment strategies were estimated. The study covers the period from 2014 to 2023. To assess the statistical significance of differences in REIT portfolio returns, standard t-tests were applied. There is a lack of research in the literature specifically addressing investment strategies in this market. The findings of this analysis can assist investors in selecting the most effective investment strategy. |
| Keywords: | capital allocation; Investment Strategies; Real Estate Investment Trusts |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_251 |
| By: | Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the dynamic causal effects of natural disasters on economic activity using weekly U.S. state-level data over the last forty years. Focusing on large, plausibly unexpected events, we find a temporary decline in state activity that starts in the first week and dissipates within a year. The size and persistence of this decline are scaled with the initial severity and are primarily driven by disruptions to mobility, manufacturing sentiment, exports, household spending, and labor markets. Inflation shows a muted response. We further show that these geographically concentrated shocks rarely register at the national level, underscoring the importance of high-frequency, regional data for capturing the full dynamics of geographically concentrated shocks like natural disasters. Lastly, we show that property insurance materially shapes outcomes: states with higher property insurance coverage experience milder downturns and faster recoveries. Our findings indicate that access to property insurance plays a key role in cushioning local economies against the disruptive effects of natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | climate change, natural disasters, local projections, economic activity, high-frequency data |
| JEL: | E23 F18 O44 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2542 |
| By: | Ghulam Mustafa (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Muhammad Hamza Amjad |
| Abstract: | Blockchain technology has the potential to transform Pakistan`s industrial sector, particularly the real estate market, by enhancing transparency, reducing transaction costs, and minimising market frictions. While blockchain adoption is increasing globally to improve market efficiency, Pakistan remains behind in integrating this technology. This study aims to bridge this gap by simulating the impact of blockchain adoption on real estate market efficiency, focusing on Islamabad. Using an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach, the study tests four key hypotheses: (i) the effect of blockchain on transparency and fraudulent cases, (ii) its impact on average sale time and liquidity, (iii) the role of price discovery in the absence of traditional dealers, and (iv) changes in transaction costs due to blockchain implementation. The simulation results reveal that blockchain adoption significantly enhances market efficiency by reducing asymmetric information, increasing transparency, improving liquidity, and drastically lowering transaction costs. Through tokenisation, smart contracts, and decentralised ledgers, blockchain disrupts the role of intermediaries, leading to a more efficient and transparent market. By eliminating dealercentric liquidity and introducing decentralised mechanisms, Islamabad`s real estate sector can achieve true price discovery based on supply-demand dynamics rather than speculation. However, the Capital Development Authority (CDA) plays a crucial role as both regulator and innovator. Balancing blockchain`s disruptive potential with existing legal and institutional frameworks is essential for its successful implementation in Pakistan`s real estate sector. |
| Keywords: | Agent-Based Model, Blockchain Technology, REAL ESTATE |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:12 |
| By: | Paul Anglin; Yanmin Gao |
| Abstract: | We offer two perspectives on using evidence to distinguish a “buyers’ market” from a “sellers’ market” from “balanced” market conditions in a real estate market. The first perspective recognizes the effects of randomness and studies how to weigh multiple indicators of market conditions when estimating the hidden state of the market. We derive optimal weights based on the sensitivity and the noisiness of each indicator. Numerical simulations suggest the magnitude of the benefits associated with optimal weighting. Our second perspective emphasizes that the current state of the market depends on lagged indicators. Using the case of two indicators, we characterize the time path jointly and discuss the short term and medium term properties of the solution. In particular, those properties help when trying to understand how long unbalanced market conditions would persist. These two perspectives enable us to discuss specific examples which illustrate why the definition of, say, a sellers’ market can be confusing. We suggest that the use of a likelihood ratio may help. |
| Keywords: | indicators of market conditions; price trends; transitional dynamics; weighted average |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_72 |
| By: | Daniel Moulton; Larry Santucci; Robyn Smith |
| Abstract: | This paper examines methodological approaches for extracting structured data from large-scale historical document archives, comparing “hyperspecialized” versus “adaptive modular” strategies. Using 56 years of Philadelphia property deeds as a case study, we show the benefits of the adaptive modular approach leveraging optical character recognition (OCR), full-text search, and frontier large language models (LLMs) to identify deeds containing specific restrictive use language— achieving 98% precision and 90–98% recall. Our adaptive modular methodology enables analysis of historically important economic phenomena including re strictive property covenants, their precise geographic locations, and the localized neighborhood effects of these restrictions. This approach should be easily adapt able to other research involving deeds and similar document. |
| Keywords: | large language models (LLMs); artificial intelligence (AI); machine learning (ML); restrictive covenants; deeds; property; real estate; housing; John Coltrane; digitization |
| JEL: | C81 N32 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2025–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpdp:102114 |
| By: | Peter Reusens; Tijmen van Kempen; Joren Vandenbergh; Frank Vastmans; Sven Damen |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the impact of the Flemish energy renovation obligation for homebuyers on house prices. This policy was introduced in 2023 and obliges buyers of the most energy-inefficient homes to renovate within five years from purchasing the property in order to obtain at least a class D label. By applying a difference-in-differences technique and leveraging a unique dataset of dwelling characteristics, we find that energy-inefficient houses in the Flemish Region became about 2% cheaper as a result of this renovation obligation, both relative to similar houses in the Walloon Region and to those with a class D energy label in the Flemish Region. The reasons for this only limited effect are that a majority of buyers of energy-inefficient houses were renovating their properties to at least a class D level in any case and that this renovation cost seems to already have been largely factored into the price. As the Flemish Region is the only region in the world to have introduced an energy renovation obligation for homebuyers, our findings may be of interest to the many other countries that are considering a similar policy. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Energy renovation obligation; House Prices; Minimum energy performance standards |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_152 |
| By: | Rene-Ojas Woltering; David Downs; Seong Wook Park |
| Abstract: | As the real estate sector grapples with its substantial environmental footprint, quantifying the economic value of sustainability has become imperative. In fact, hospitality is the segment of the real estate industry with the highest carbon footprint. Yet, there is scant evidence assessing the presence of a “green premium” for hotels. Our paper is the first to address this shortcoming. Utilizing a dataset of 811 UK hotel transactions from 2007 to 2022, we estimate a hedonic regression model to quantify the price differentials attributed to Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) ratings. We find a significant price premium for hotels with higher EPC ratings: a 16% premium for A and B ratings (i.e., the two highest ratings), and a 10% premium for C and above ratings, and a nearly 10% discount for D through G (i.e., the lowest ratings). These findings are indicative of the tangible economic value associated with higher degrees of energy efficiency and, perhaps more importantly, suggest increased investor attention to energy efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Green premium; Hedonic valuation; sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_158 |
| By: | Emediegwu, Lotanna E.; Iloanugo, Uzoma; Animashaun, Jubril O. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the empirical evidence regarding the effect of variations in soil fertility on violence at local level. Recent evidence using spatial econometrics technique shows that increases in input (fertilizer) prices exacerbate income inequality and conflict, especially where soil fertility is more heterogeneous. However, when observational units are dense in physical space, they become susceptible to spatial dependence and heterogeneity. Our main contribution is methodological: we solve the foregoing issue by using local soil nutrient availability measurement to proxy soil fertility and employing spatial first differences (SFD) to investigate the effect of soil quality on local conflict. This methodology offers a framework that eliminates bias in soil quality data while accounting for spatial dependence and unobserved spatial heterogeneity. Also, we use geo-referenced data across countries within Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions at a spatial resolution of (0.5 × 0.5) degrees over a more extended period (1997 to 2022) to show that soil nutrient heterogeneity magnifies conflicts. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356728 |
| By: | kilani, bochra hadj |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolution of citizen participation in urban planning in Tunisia following the 2011 revolution, with a focus on participatory budgeting (PB) as a transformative governance tool. Drawing on municipal case studies—including Carthage’s Annual Investment Plan—the study explores how PB fosters inclusive decision-making, enhances municipal autonomy, and institutionalizes bottomup planning practices. Tunisia’s hybrid model, inspired by German participatory frameworks, illustrates the interplay between grassroots mobilization and state-led democratization. The paper identifies key challenges to scaling participatory methodologies, including uneven implementation, limited citizen awareness, and institutional inertia. It concludes by proposing strategic pathways for embedding participatory urbanism in Tunisia’s planning infrastructure and offers comparative insights for Global South cities pursuing democratic urban reform |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4t6sp_v1 |
| By: | Martijn Dröes; Marc Francke; Lukas Hofmann |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of land subsidence, the sinking of the land surface, on property values. Land subsidence can affect properties by damaging the foundation or increasing their exposure to flood risk. Based on detailed property transaction data from the Netherlands and high-quality geodata on current and future subsidence and flood risks, we find that property that is currently subsiding trades at a 0.8% discount if it is built on a foundation prone to damage. Flood-prone properties predicted to subside in the future trade at 1.5% lower prices. The estimates indicate that buyers underestimate foundation risk but overestimate flood risk. Furthermore, an increase in Google searches for subsidence by one standard deviation leads to an additional price discount of 0.8% for houses in subsiding areas. This discount is lower for the properties with the highest subsidence risk, further indicating that risk is not adequately priced. |
| Keywords: | Climate Risk; land subsidence; property prices; Risk Perception |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_161 |
| By: | Witte, Marc J. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | What motivates workers’ referral decisions? Combining a field experiment in a firm and urban social network data, I first show that workers primarily refer those who previously referred them. This reciprocity leads to significant on-the-job productivity losses and excludes less connected individuals. Incentivized referrals reduce reciprocity and make workers screen more productive colleagues. Second, peripheral workers use referrals strategically to establish new and reciprocated links which persist after 18 months. These results are consistent with a network-based referral model where individuals trade off pecuniary and social incentives. The findings suggest that referrals through social networks can reinforce labor market inequalities. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, social networks, job referrals |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18258 |
| By: | Olivier De Jonghe (National Bank of Belgium); Konstantīns Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Karolis Bielskis (Bank of Lithuania); Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal, Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics); Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia); Tamás Briglevics (Central Bank of Hungary); Martin Cesnak (National Bank of Slovakia); Mantas Dirma (Bank of Lithuania); Marina Emiris (National Bank of Belgium); Pálma Filep-Mosberger (Central Bank of Hungary); Valentin Jouvanceau (Bank of Lithuania); Nicholas Kaiser (Central Bank of Ireland); Dmitry Khametshin (Banco de España); Viola M. Grolmusz (Central Bank of Hungary); Laura Moretti (Central Bank of Ireland); Artūrs Jānis Nikitins (Latvijas Banka); Angelo Nunnari (Banca d’Italia); Maria Rodriguez Moreno (Banco de España); Elitsa Stefanova (European Central Bank); Lajos Tamás Szabó (Central Bank of Hungary); Kārlis Vilerts (Latvijas Banka); Sujiao Emma Zhao (Banco de Portugal, Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the pass-through of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission; household borrowing; credit registers; interest rate pass through; cross-country heterogeneity. |
| JEL: | E52 G21 D14 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202511-485 |
| By: | Mongelli Ignazio (European Commission - JRC); Avila Uribe Antonio (European Commission - JRC); Maes Joachim; Duran Laguna Jorge; Feyen Luc (European Commission - JRC); Ciscar Martinez Juan Carlos (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report examines the magnitude and geography of the economic consequences of climate risks in European NUTS3 regions using a new regional economic growth model that accounts for spatial spillover effects. The assessment, based on the JRC PESETA V project, focuses on a 2⁰C scenario of global warming by 2050 and considers seven climate impact categories: labor productivity, droughts, coastal flooding, river flooding, storms, wildfires and transport infrastructure. By 2050, the 2°C global warming scenario could result in an average 0.7% EU GDP loss (0.8% EU consumption loss), accumulating to an undiscounted €2.5 trillion in GDP losses, highlighting a significant economic burden. The results also indicate that there is a large spatial asymmetry in climate risks, affecting more regions in Southern and Eastern European countries (Greece, Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal, Spain and Italy). Northern European regions are more vulnerable to river and coastal flooding, while Southern and Eastern European regions are disproportionately affected by productivity losses, droughts and coastal flooding. The current allocation of European cohesion funds partially mitigates this asymmetric pattern of climate risks. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143093 |