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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Leonie Müller-Judex; Vanessa Dietl; Tobias Just; Anna Eisner |
| Abstract: | While the influence of school quality and proximity on property values—commonly known as the 'School District Effect'—is well-documented, the economic impacts of targeted in- vestments in school renovations have remained largely unexplored. This gap is particularly significant as it challenges the assumptions underlying Net Present Value calculations made by investors. Two hypotheses emerge: either renovation effects are unanticipated and there- fore irrelevant to current property values, or they are anticipated and already reflected in prices. This dynamic is particularly relevant in the context of Berlin’s =C5.5 billion School Construction Offensive, Europe’s largest initiative of its kind, which provides a unique op- portunity to examine these effects, including the varied externalities generated by different school types. For instance, primary schools may increase traffic and noise but attract families seeking proximity, while secondary or vocational schools may shape neighborhoods differ- ently based on their reputation and demographics. The research employs hedonic pricing models, spatial regression, and difference-in-differences analysis to test these hypotheses and isolate the causal impacts of school renovations on property values and neighborhood dynamics. By evaluating variations across school types, income levels, and socioeconomic contexts, the study aims to identify measurable increases in property values, with stronger effects near higher-quality schools and diminishing impacts with distance. This research addresses an overlooked dimension of school-related urban economics, offering actionable strategies to optimize public investments while advancing equity and fostering sustainable urban development. |
| Keywords: | Educational Infrastructure; Neighborhood Dynamics; Property Values; School Renovations |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_215 |
| By: | Wenli Li; Yichen Su |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the significance of migration in evaluating the welfare impacts of remote work. By analyzing individual location history data, we first document an increase in net migration towards suburbs and smaller cities in the US since 2020. We demonstrate that the migration wave has been disproportionately fueled by high-income individuals, who were more likely to move due to remote work. Consequently, regions with substantial in-migration observed the greatest rise in housing expenses. This also led to changes in local demand for services and associated employment. Employing a stylized welfare accounting framework, we show that migration mitigated the increase in housing cost burdens for both high- and low-income groups, with the advantages being greater for low-income individuals. Conversely, dispersed job growth, as a result of migration away from major urban centers, curtailed the increase in job accessibility, especially for high-income groups. Factoring in the spatial impacts of migration on housing costs and job accessibility, the welfare inequality surge related to remote work is considerably tempered. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Sorting; Migration; Housing Cost; Employment; Inequality; Remote Work; WFH |
| JEL: | R2 R3 D6 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102079 |
| By: | Yilin Hou; Jinghua Qi; Yugang Tang |
| Abstract: | Mobility matches open housing markets. With constrained mobility and partially open housing markets, market responses reflect the constraints. We study this mechanism by examining disparity in access to public schools across socio-economic groups, focusing on properties near primary schools accessible to migrant students under social integration policies in a Chinese megacity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we uncover complex spatial and market dynamics: while house prices close to ordinary primary schools remained relatively stable, house prices farther away declined markedly. This differential impact suggests the interaction between a potential "peer effect" and an "amenity effect." The rental rates showed little change from the migrant inflow and native flights. The reform also triggered a decrease in second-hand house sales, coupled with increased rental activities. This study highlights the effect of school enrollment policies on urban spatial dynamics, with significant implications for policymakers seeking to promote social integration in megacities. |
| Keywords: | housing market, rural-urban migration, constrained mobility, differential rights, tenants, homeowners, school enrollment |
| JEL: | H31 H52 R21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12263 |
| By: | Jing Yang; Xinrong Li; Erin Liu |
| Abstract: | This study examines the potential linkages between corporate public listing activities and the performance of local residential mortgage markets, using a dataset of 1, 100 IPOs in the U.S. from 2000 to 2018. While existing literature suggests that IPOs may generate positive spillover effects, such as stimulating local businesses and housing markets, we find an unexpected negative correlation between IPO activity and the average performance (particularly foreclosure rates and 90-day delinquency rates) of local mortgage loans. We investigate various potential explanations for this relationship, and find little evidence to support the hypothesis that it is driven by rising housing costs following IPOs or by wealthier borrowers exiting the mortgage market due to welfare changes after IPOs. However, we do find that certain IPO variables are positively associated with the median OLTV ratio of local mortgage loans. Additionally, the negative correlation between IPOs and loan performance is stronger when excluding MSAs that are home to the headquarters of largest mortgage lenders that have nationwide operations. Our findings suggest a potential “counter-cyclical” shift in lending quality, similar to trends identified in banking literature, where lenders may relax lending standards or reduce the quality of borrower assessments during business upswings following IPOs. |
| Keywords: | Capital market; counter-cyclical; Initial public offering; Mortgage |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_70 |
| By: | Jian Liang; Chyi Lin Lee; Yunhe Cheng; Franz Fuerst; Matthew Ng |
| Abstract: | This study examines the heterogeneous impact of flooding, if any, on housing prices, rental markets, and household financial conditions, with a particular focus on lower-income households in New South Wales, Australia. Using a Spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID) approach to housing and household-level financial data, we assess changes in housing prices, rental markets, and household expenditures in flood-affected areas, focusing on the March 2021 flood event. Specifically, it examines its disproportionate effects, if any, on low-income households, particularly renters, for the first time. Our results reveal that while the direct impact on property sale prices is statistically insignificant, rental prices increased by 2.7% to 3%, with the most significant effect observed in the lower-end rental market. This can be attributed to supply shortages and landlords passing repair costs onto tenants. Specifically, owner-occupiers faced a significant rise in home repair and insurance expenses, while renters experienced increased housing costs without direct repair liabilities. Additionally, vacancy rates in flooded areas declined by 10.7% to 15.7%, with rental market pressures particularly affecting lower-income households. Results here suggest that lower-income households, particularly renters, were disproportionately affected by the flooding events. The study highlights critical policy implications, including improved flood risk awareness, better tenant regulatory protection, and integrating climate resilience into housing affordability strategies. |
| Keywords: | Flooding; Housing Markets; spatial DID; Sydney |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_193 |
| By: | Brugiavini, Agar; Di Cataldo, Marco; Romani, Giulia |
| Abstract: | The spatial concentration of knowledge-intensive activities can generate multiplicative effects at the local level. This paper examines how employment growth in knowledge-intensive and tradable sectors affects wage, days worked, and internal migration of non-tradable workers in Italy. We leverage matched employer-employee data (2005–2019) to track individuals across jobs and locations. Our empirical strategy combines a two-step estimation with a shift-share instrument to disentangle the roles of worker sorting and local spillovers. We find that knowledge sector expansion increases the number of days worked locally and attracts non-tradable workers. It also raises nominal wages, but only when sorting is not accounted for, suggesting selective inflows of more productive workers into knowledge hubs. However, rising local living costs offset nominal wage gains, leading to lower real wages. |
| Keywords: | labour demand shocks; knowledge economy; local spillovers; sorting; Italy |
| JEL: | J23 J61 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130106 |
| By: | Tomasz Orpiszewski; Mark Thompson; Laura Archer-Svoboda |
| Abstract: | This study explores the relationship between diversification strategies of Swiss real estate fund portfolios and their financial performance. Leveraging a novel dataset developed in collaboration with Conser ESG Verifier, the research analyzes 41 funds encompassing over 9, 000 properties. Key spatial metrics—such as distance to headquarters, geographic diversification, and linguistic proximity—were defined at the property level and aggregated to the fund level. Using cross-sectional regressions alongside categorical and spatial similarity analyses, the study reveals that Swiss real estate funds generally exhibit geographically concentrated portfolios, often situated near their headquarters and in linguistically aligned regions. While larger asset bases promote greater diversification, geographic spread and local investment focus do not significantly impact financial returns. Instead, returns are positively associated with fund age and portfolio size. Furthermore, similarity analysis highlights distinct differences among funds in terms of property types and spatial investment patterns. This research not only provides a unique dataset on Swiss real estate portfolios but also uncovers critical links between property characteristics, geographic and linguistic factors, and fund performance, enhancing transparency and comparability within the sector. |
| Keywords: | Diversification; Proximity Bias; Real Estate Funds; Swiss Real Estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_3 |
| By: | Jan Mutl; Nikolas Müller |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dynamics of Germany’s rental housing markets, moving beyond traditional classifications such as A-, B-, C-, and D-markets to provide a nuanced analysis of supply and demand interactions. Drawing on a dataset of online residential unit offerings, the study integrates key variables such as advertisement duration, demand intensity, and activity metrics to identify distinct market characteristics. The findings confirm other studies on significant regional disparities. Tenant-favorable markets are predominantly located in economically weaker or peripheral regions, characterized by longer listing durations and lower demand. In contrast, landlord-favorable markets emerge in economically strong cities, mid-sized university towns, and suburban areas with excellent connectivity. In addition, however, the results highlight the existence of ‘hidden champions’, i.e. areas where high demand coincides with affordable rents, and ‘overheated markets’ where high rents exceed demand, leading to an increased risk of vacancy. This research provides critical insights for investors, policymakers, and urban planners by offering a comprehensive understanding of market opportunities and risks. It demonstrates that market dynamics cannot be adequately captured by traditional classifications alone. The study emphasizes the importance of granular, data-driven analyses to inform decision-making in the real estate sector. Future research will aim to enhance the scope and predictive accuracy of these findings by incorporating micro-locational trends and longer-term temporal dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Market Dynamics; Real Estate Valuation; Urban and regional analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_74 |
| By: | Kwan Ok Lee; Syed Hasan; Maheen Javaid |
| Abstract: | Spatial heterogeneity in housing affordability is more pronounced in Lahore, Pakistan, than in cities in developed countries. Using online listing data, neighborhood-level geospatial information, and a large-sample geotagged household survey, we find that spatial sorting is inefficient across Lahore’s neighborhoods. Older, central neighborhoods with a high share of lower-cost housing are often occupied by middle- to higher-income residents, while many lower-income households reside in newer, suburban neighborhoods with higher-cost housing. Low-income, younger homeowners, in particular, tend to sort into higher-cost neighborhoods compared to older households with similar incomes. Our regression analysis shows that neighborhood housing quality is a stronger predictor of unaffordability than amenities, especially for lower-income and younger households. In other words, either voluntarily opting or being forced to choose neighborhoods with higher-quality housing leads to greater affordability challenges for these groups. Therefore, efficient within-neighborhood sorting—where lower-income households can access affordable housing—is vital for affordability in Lahore. However, such access is expected to be limited for younger, first-time homebuyers compared to older homeowners with longer-term residency. Our study highlights that a single measure of housing affordability can obscure distributional challenges in developing countries, where spatial sorting is less efficient. |
| Keywords: | Developing Countries; First-time Homeownership; Housing Affordability; Sorting |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_58 |
| By: | Anja Salomon |
| Abstract: | Social Impact Investments (SII) have developed as a private investment approach and have provided crucial impetus for governance practices addressing housing issues. To improve access to affordable housing and reduce homelessness, SIIs are regarded as a powerful instrument. Nevertheless, little is known about how varying government interventions and policies affect social impact investment decisions by private investors, real estate companies, and developers in affordable housing across different cities. As housing policy issues are of unprecedented scale and are highly influenced by rapid systemic changes, this study explores different ways in which SIIs are implemented to provide affordable housing and reduce homelessness within governance systems, by bridging the private sector and political perspective. It draws on existing literature and qualitative methods, using semi-structured expert interviews and case studies conducted in European cities such as Vienna, Berlin, Zurich, Graz, Bern, and Karlsruhe. It identifies key levers, barriers, and actors that shape the implementation of SII in affordable housing, and assesses how collaborative urban governmental interventions and policies either foster or hinder impact-oriented investment. The study contributes to a better understanding of the interplay between market-based instruments and public policy in achieving social outcomes in urban housing. |
| Keywords: | Affordable Housing; Comparative Policy analysis; Social Impact Investment; urban governance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_308 |
| By: | Arnaud Simon; Guillaume Toussaint; Mathieu Obertelli; Raphael Languillon |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the dynamics of real estate prices in French départements over 25 years. It is based on considerations relating to the life cycle (and in particular the intensity of local ageing), planning policies (spatial concentration of the population, active population, metropolization, peripheralization) and monetary policies (creation of liquidity and the ability of real estate assets to capture excess liquidity). Using panel-data analysis, it studies both real and gross property prices, and prices normalized by M2 monetary aggregates, as a function of: total population change (natural rate, migratory rate), degree of ageing, interest rates, median income, divorce rate and new construction intensity. It then aims to characterize the departments most likely to see their share of total French housing capital outperform or underperform the average trend. The analysis is also split into 3 sub-periods: [2000; 2007], [2008;2015], [2015;2024]; the year 2007 indicating the start of the ageing boom in France, the year 2015 indicating the start of the structural increase in the number of deaths (with retirees owning on average 75% of their homes, compared with 58% for the national average). A projection based on demographic trends is also presented, along with a few comments on the effects of building restrictions (coastal law, mountain law, regional nature park law) in order to understand the effect that zero-artificialization laws could have on housing prices. |
| Keywords: | housing capital; Housing Prices; local demographics; Monetary policies |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_103 |
| By: | Hendrik Jenett; Jakob Kozak; McKay Price; Wolfgang Schäfers |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of location based factors specifically local real estate market risk and geographic diversification on the bond risk premia of U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). We hypothesize that REITs operating in more volatile local real estate markets incur higher bond risk premia, reflecting investors' demand for compensation due to heightened risk exposure. Local real estate market risk is quantified using a REIT specific local beta factor, which captures sensitivity to national real estate market shocks. We find a local real estate market risk premium for REIT bonds, indicating that investors seek compensation for the additional risk. Furthermore, we uncover a non linear relationship between geographic diversification and bond risk premia, with a structural break at a Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) of 0.25. For REITs with higher levels of concentration (HHI above 0.25), increased diversification is associated with lower bond risk premia. However, for well diversified REITs (HHI below 0.25), we identify a geographic diversification discount , where further diversification leads to higher bond risk premia, suggesting diminishing benefits from diversification. These findings underscore the important role of real estate location risk in shaping REIT debt costs, offering valuable insights for investors managing bond portfolio risks in the context of market volatility and geographic diversification. |
| Keywords: | Geographic Diversification; Local Beta; REIT Bond; Yield spread |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_140 |
| By: | Stan Longhofer; Christian Redfearn |
| Abstract: | Differences-in-differences is among the most popular quasi-experimental methods in urban and housing economics. Because houses are immobile and expensive, we expect buyers and sellers to consider seriously and respond to the externalities from which their house cannot escape. As such, house prices are widely used to assess the impact of policy changes, environmental damages, new infrastructure, and other changes to spatial amenities and disamenities. In many applications, the net impact of these significant contributors to house prices are assumed to be fixed. We argue that they are far from fixed, and that the housing market dynamics that are common within metropolitan areas invalidate a general imposition of fixed effects. This is highly problematic for methods that require fixed effects in order to identify the independent effects of a particular policy or externality. Using data from Maricopa County, Arizona, we document the marked asymmetric evolution of the value of location. Far from being stable, we find that the Maricopa housing market is sufficiently dynamic to undermine any of the “standard” approaches to differences-in-differences methods. We run numerous placebo tests, induced treatments, and several policy applications which allow us to quantify the accuracy of typical methods. The results call into question the differences-in-differences method commonly used in urban and housing economics. Is sum, we find that a house’s simple membership in the same metropolitan area is not a sufficient means of judging whether a house is a good control for use in a quasi-experimental method. |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_226 |
| By: | Anna Knoppik; Felix Weinel; Sebastian Leutner; Marcelo Cajias; Wolfgang Schäfers |
| Abstract: | Global climate change is leading to rising temperatures and has numerous ecological consequences, such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. Urbanization further exacerbates the climate crisis as the density of buildings and the extensive sealing is leading to a substantial increase in temperature in urban areas. The paper aims to examine whether the phenomenon of the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) has an impact on property prices and whether temperature fluctuations affect price trends in one of the most densely populated cities in Europe, Berlin. For the evaluation, daily temperatures on a 30-metre by 30-metre grid are considered from 2014 to 2023. The corresponding UHIs are conducted on the basis of the relative temperature differences between the location of a property and the overall mean temperature of the sample. Within a semi-parametric model, non-linear relationships between variables are permitted, enabling an in-depth analysis of meteorological data and property information. The results reveal that temperature differences, particularly at night, have a significant impact on real estate prices in Berlin. This highlights that in the context of urbanisation, UHI has become a relevant issue in both economic and urban planning approaches. |
| Keywords: | Climate Risk; Generalized Additive Model; Residential Real Estate; Urban Heat Islands |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_146 |
| By: | Jing Zou; Wang Baitao; Xiaoxuan Lan; Xiaojun Deng |
| Abstract: | While rural migrant housing tenure choice is a major policy concern, little is known about the association between hometown landholdings and rural migrants’ housing tenure choices. Using national micro data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), we examine the relationship between landholdings in places of origin and housing tenure choices by rural migrants in Chinese cities. By applying the probit model and the propensity score matching (PSM) method, the results clearly show that owning contracted land at hometown is positively associated with rural migrants’ housing tenure choices, while owning housing land in the place of origin is negatively associated with rural migrants’ housing tenure choices. When migrants own both types of land, the overall effect is negative. The possible mechanism is that contracted land affects rural migrants’ housing tenure choices through an economic effect, while housing land affects rural migrants’ housing tenure choice through emotional connection, which make migrants strengthen links with their hometown, interact more with fellow townspeople, and weaken their willingness to settle in the city, thus reduce the probability of buying houses. Further analysis shows that the relationship between hometown landholdings and housing tenure choices among rural migrants is highly heterogeneous across different generations and destination groups. The research conclusions of this paper are not only beneficial for improving China’s land and housing system but also have important reference significance for other countries. |
| Keywords: | economic effect; Hometown landholdings; housing tenure choices; Migrants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_213 |
| By: | David Figlio; Umut Ozek; David N. Figlio; Umut Özek |
| Abstract: | This study presents the first evidence, to our knowledge, of the effects of the surge in interior immigration apprehensions in 2025 in the United States on student academic performance using detailed student-level administrative records from Florida. We find evidence that immigration enforcement reduced test scores for both U.S.-born and foreign-born Spanish-speaking students while also reducing the likelihood that these students are involved in disciplinary incidents in schools. Both of these effects are more pronounced for students in middle and high schools. |
| Keywords: | immigration enforcement, recent immigrants, immigrant students, human capital |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12261 |
| By: | Yao, Fang (Central Bank of Ireland); Pelli, Michele (Central Bank of Ireland); Shaikh, Sameer (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | The rental yield is an important metric for gauging sustainability of the housing market. This Insight studied the impact of the mortgage measures on rental yields across Irish counties in the two years following introduction in 2015. We find that there are clear and strong effects on house prices, which drive up the rental yield across counties, but find only a small and imprecise direct impact on rents. Multiple factors are likely at play in explaining the muted response of rents, including changed house purchase behaviour and increased supply by institutional investors over the estimation period. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:stafin:5/si/25 |
| By: | Ervi Liusman; H.T. Chan; Kwong Wing Chau |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of brand value of a real estate developer on its share price performance. While similar studies have been conducted on multinational companies, there is a notable gap in research specifically focused on real estate developers. The empirical results from existing literature indicate a positive relationship between the branding of listed companies and their share price performance. However, quantifying the brand value (BV) of real estate developers presents a significant challenge. To address this, we quantify the BV of a real estate developer by analyzing the average premium (PRE) of the housing units it develops compared to the market-wide average housing prices in the second-hand housing market, while controlling for all known factors that influence housing prices. A high PRE indicates that second-hand buyers are confident in the quality of the housing units produced by the developer, leading them to pay a higher premium. Conversely, a negative PRE suggests a discount. We exclude first-hand transaction records from our analysis, as the observed first-hand sales prices are not true market prices; they are influenced by various factors such as payment methods, the developer's pricing and marketing strategies, and the time elapsed between the sale and the completion date for presale units. The results of our study demonstrate that the BV of a developer positively impacts its Sharpe and Tobin’s Q ratios. This suggests that the brand value of a real estate developer is indeed reflected in its share prices, highlighting the importance of branding in the real estate sector. |
| Keywords: | Brand Value; Price Premium; real estate companies; Share Price Performance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_67 |
| By: | Guangyu Cheng |
| Abstract: | Many countries have embraced fiscal decentralization to incentivize subnational units to develop local economies. However, central governments in unitary regimes often delegate spending responsibilities generously but hesitate to devolve revenues. Few studies have explored the incentives driving local government behaviors under incomplete fiscal decentralization. This paper fills this gap by studying industrial land transfers by local governments in China. We construct a theoretical model to clarify the essential role of industrial land supply in local government revenue. Then we test hypotheses using the county-level dataset from the Yangtze River Delta spanning 2012 to 2019. We find that (i) a widening gap between industrial and nonindustrial land prices promotes county-level governments to reduce industrial land supply; (ii) they increase industrial land supply when receiving a larger budget shares; and (iii) political promotion incentive has insignificant effects on industrial land transfers. These results are robust across various checks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates stronger incentive effects of land price gaps and budget distribution in urban districts compared to normal counties and county-level cities. Further analysis suggests that county-level governments leverage industrial land transfers to boost nonindustrial land sales and industrial economic production. The boosting effects on nonindustrial land sales are immediate but short-lived, while the effects on industrial economic production show an enhancing trend over time. These findings suggest that allocating more government budgets to the local level encourages subnational units to adopt longer-term policies in developing local economies. This study sheds insights into the design of incentives for local governments under unitary regimes. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal decentralization; Institutional incentive; Land Supply; Local government |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_256 |
| By: | Liming Yao |
| Abstract: | A growing body of research has explored housing affordability in China, with a focus on the factors contributing to housing difficulties. However, limited attention has been given to housing precarity, particularly among disadvantaged groups experiencing employment instability. Despite recent shifts in rural to urban migration trends in China, challenges such as restricted access to housing and stable employment have become increasingly prevalent for this group, exacerbated by persistent institutional barriers. While the interplay between housing precarity and job instability has been extensively studied in the international contexts, there remains a notable gap in understanding these dynamics among Chinese rural to urban migrants. This study seeks to address this gap by investigating how employment instability exacerbates housing precarity and how these challenges limit migrants' access to social welfare and hinder their social integration in urban destinations. Using data from Chinese household surveys and empirical estimations, the findings reveal that unstable employment, characterised by irregular income or precarious contracts, limits individuals’ ability to afford secure and adequate housing, perpetuating a cycle of housing and economic insecurity. The heterogeneity effect by educational achievement highlights that migrants with greater qualifications demonstrate increased likelihood in securing job opportunities, thereby reducing the adverse impacts on housing security. The findings enrich this field of study by offering China-specific insights, calling for policy attention to address the housing and labour challenges for rural to urban migrants. |
| Keywords: | Housing Policy; Housing precarity; Job instability; Rural to urban migrants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_86 |
| By: | Carmelo Micciche |
| Abstract: | Housing price dynamics are well described at the country or region scales, but they suffer from a poor understanding of the fundamentals driving these dynamics, especially locally. Many indicators produced by various actors effectively capture price fluctuations but fail to explain the mechanisms governing these changes at a local level. This paper investigates the determinants of housing price evolutions across French submarkets from 2010 to 2020—a period shaped by economic recovery and quantitative easing policies—using a complete and precise database of housing price indices. This work aims to measure the relevancy and explanatory power of a set of economic, demographic, and financial fundamentals at a local scale, covering all of France. The main objectives are to highlight the underlying factors of submarkets in France and quantify their relative influence. The study leverages time series data retrieved at the finest geographical scale, selected from among the most frequently cited variables in academic literature. The findings reveal that, while the determinants are common across the country, their impacts vary significantly depending on the segment and region. The richness and precision of the housing price index database, combined with segmentation based on urban population size, underscore how financing conditions and socio-economic factors drive real estate prices, particularly in the largest urban areas by population. |
| Keywords: | Market fundamentals; Panel Regression; Price evolution |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_154 |
| By: | Pasquale Accardo (University of Bath); Adriano Amati (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia); Giovanni Mastrobuoni (Collegio Carlo Alberto; University of Turin; University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | This study uses a unique longitudinal data set on daily museum visits in Northern Italy to investigate how social networks influence leisure consumption. Based on detailed administrative records of museum cardholders, we use repeated joint visits to build a dynamic network of peers. We identify peer effects that exploit exogenous variation in membership prices generated by age-based discounts. We find robust evidence of peer spillovers in both museum attendance and membership renewal, primarily driven by a preference for shared experiences. These results underscore the role of social interactions in shaping leisure demand and support the view that social networks can amplify individual behavior. More broadly, our findings contribute to the understanding of peer dynamics in settings where consumption is inherently social. |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eid:wpaper:58192 |
| By: | Yasmine Elkhateeb (J-PAL MENA, Faculty of Economics & Political Science, Cairo University, Egypt); Riccardo Turati (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain & IZA, Germany & RFBerlin, Germany); Jérôme Valette (CEPII, IC Migrations, France & IZA, Germany & RFBerlin, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Does immigration challenge the identities, values, and cultural diversity of receiving societies? This paper addresses this question by analyzing the impact of immigration on cultural diversity in Europe between 2004 and 2018. It combines regional cultural diversity indices derived from the European Social Survey with immigration shares from the European Labor Force Survey. The results indicate that immigration increases the salience of birthplace identity along cultural lines, fostering a shift toward nativist identities among the native population. These identity shifts, in turn, trigger a process of cultural homogenization among natives. This effect is stronger in regions receiving culturally distant immigrants. It reflects a process of convergence toward the values of highly skilled liberal natives and divergence from those of low-skilled conservative immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Social Identity, Cultural Diversity. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2517 |
| By: | Stefano Corradin; José Fillat; Carles Vergara-Alert |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of systematic household misestimation of home prices on financial decisions, including stockholdings, consumption, and asset allocation. Using exogenous variation in house values, mortgage debt, and homeowner misestimation identified through differences in local housing market characteristics, we find that a $60, 000 increase in house overvaluation (approximately one standard deviation) results in a 1.1 to 1.9 percent decrease in risky stockholdings, a 1.5 to 4.3 percent increase in consumption, and a 1.3 to 2.5 percent increase in the share of risk-free assets over liquid wealth. The results highlight the need to better understand how housing wealth and beliefs about house values affect portfolio choice, spending, and overall household finance. |
| Keywords: | household finance; portfolio choice; housing; misestimation |
| JEL: | G11 D11 D91 R21 C61 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:102081 |
| By: | Giulia Bettin (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche); Silvia Mattiozzi (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of severe manufacturing crises on internal migration patterns across Italian local labour markets (LLMs) between 2000 and 2019. Leveraging a staggered difference-in-differences design, we estimate the causal effect of these shocks on the mobility of the working-age resident population. The results indicate a significant decline in net migration, primarily driven by an immediate reduction in inflows, which is nearly twice the size of the concurrent rise in outflows to other LLMs. We uncover substantial heterogeneity by citizenship, as foreign nationals are significantly less likely to migrate into affected areas following a crisis, while no systematic differences emerge by gender. The effects are more evident in district-based LLMs, moderately urbanized areas, and those located in Central and Northern Italy. The results are robust across alternative model specifications and difference-in-differences estimators. These findings highlight the uneven impact of manufacturing decline on internal migration patterns across both population groups and LLM characteristics. |
| Keywords: | internal mobility, manufacturing crises, mass lay-offs, local labour markets |
| JEL: | J61 J63 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:501 |
| By: | Jing Yang |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the potential effects of interest rates and initial public offering (IPO) activities on the dynamics of commercial property markets. Using a panel data sample covering markets of five property types (office, industrial property, retail property, hotel, and apartment) across 54 major U.S. cities, and incorporating information on IPOs headquartered in these cities from 2000 to 2018, our analysis suggests the presence of positive externalities of IPOs on local commercial property markets, via enhancing these markets’ performances and/or reducing their risks. The extent of these externalities varies across different property types, with office and industrial property markets experiencing more pronounced effects. Furthermore, these effects are more robust in more densely populated areas, and more immediate during economic expansions while delayed during economic contractions. We also find that the market performance (risk) of all commercial property types consistently improves (declines) with reduced interest rates. Additionally, there is strong evidence that lower interest rates lead to higher aggregate IPO proceeds, with effects observed in both the short run and the long run. Our study indicates the diverse ways in which macroeconomic policy changes, such as interest rate changes, can influence the commercial property markets. While the direct impacts are clear, for instance, commercial mortgage loan rates are closely tied to interest rates, there are also indirect effects such as changes in the stock market, including IPO activities, can affect the broader economic environment and subsequently impact the commercial property markets. |
| Keywords: | commercial property; externality; Initial public offering; Interest Rate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_77 |
| By: | Paul Anglin; Yanmin Gao |
| Abstract: | We show how using commonly reported measures of real estate market conditions can improve the accuracy of price predictions. The standard model of competitive markets asserts that excess demand causes price(s) to adjust to an equilibrium with little delay. In an illiquid market, such as the market for real estate, attaining an equilibrium may take significantly more time. That fact implies that data on market conditions would be informative. A better understanding of the adjustment process in a real estate market could also lead to buying or selling strategies which are better informed.This paper has two parts. The first part uses different types of models to focus on the conceptual distinction between an exogenous variable and an endogenous variable. Based on this distinction, we offer six hypotheses on why the effects of marketconditions might differ between cities. The second part uses vector auto-regression to study the persistence of several variables, with a particular focus on an inflation-adjusted price index and two popular measures of excess demand (the ratio of sales to new listings and “Months of Inventory”). Using monthly data on residential real estate markets in 31 Canadian cities, we find that excess demand affects prices contemporaneously, that changes in measured excess demand persist for a significant period of time and that they affect prices with a lag. We also find evidence of a statistically significant feedback effect, in some cities, from changes in prices to the measures of excess demand. |
| Keywords: | market conditions; Months of Inventory; price trends; Sales to New Listings Ratio |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_73 |
| By: | Jan Schmid; He Cheng; Francisco Amaral; Zdrzalek Jonas |
| Abstract: | This study proposes the conception of a real estate market forecasting model for the research area of Frankfurt am Main, utilising sophisticated AI algorithms to predict house price indices. The model integrates two primary datasets: listing data from ImmoScout24 and transaction data from the local expert committee. These datasets were linked using a threshold optimisation approach to ensure accurate matching of listings and transactions at the object level. A comprehensive review of prior studies was conducted to select key predictors, supplemented by novel variables that measure differences between listing and transaction data, such as price differences and time on market. The Random Forest based algorithm selection process involved a meta-learning approach of 54 prior studies, adapted to the final dataset's structure. The XGBoost model was selected as the most suitable algorithm, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.76% and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.43 on the testing dataset. The methodology also incorporated macroeconomic and socio-economic indicators, with data structured into spatial-temporal grids for quarterly forecasting. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, offering valuable insights for real estate market analysis and future decision-making. Subsequent research is planned to validate the model and apply it to additional urban regions, initially focusing on the seven largest cities in Germany. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; House Price Indices; Real Estate Market; XGBoost |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_84 |
| By: | Dominika Brodowicz |
| Abstract: | Responsible Property Investing (RPI) is integrating environmental and social factors into real estate investment decisions. This study examines the dual realities of RPI: its potential as a driver of green transformation and the prevalence of greenwashing practices that undermine sustainability efforts in cities as well as the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies of companies. By analyzing survey data from 2024 collected from the 60 largest municipalities in Poland and over 50 major commercial real estate investors (including companies listed on the stock exchange), this research identifies both the enablers and the barriers to implementing RPI in practice. The findings show a gap between the aspirations of RPI and its implementation, with both parties struggling to align long-term strategies and goals of the other side, underscoring the critical need for improved dialogue and harmonized policy frameworks that can ultimately bridge this divide and advance sustainable real estate practices on a broader scale including not only profit, but also environmental and social goals. This research provides recommendations for property investors, emphasizing the need for clear definitions, robust regulations, and enhanced stakeholder engagement to foster the green transformation of cities instead of greenwashing. By critically assessing Poland's experiences, this study contributes to the general discussion on achieving urban sustainability through responsible investment practices and furthermore ESG. |
| Keywords: | Esg; green transformation of cities; greenwashing; responsible property investing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_155 |
| By: | Akimoto, Kenji |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the nationwide suspension of nuclear power plants following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident, as well as the subsequent restart of the Sendai Nuclear Power Plant in Kagoshima Prefecture, on local socio-economic structures. Using municipal-level statistics for 2010, 2014, and 2020, we applied principal component analysis (PCA) and clustering techniques to extract the underlying patterns of regional socio-economic organization. In addition, difference-in-differences (DID) regression analysis was employed to evaluate the effects of plant proximity on municipal fiscal indicators. The findings reveal that in 2010, urban scale and plant location were the primary axes of differentiation; by 2014, however, the suspension accentuated demographic and fiscal vulnerabilities across municipalities. In 2020, even after the plant restart, the structure of urban dominance and peripheral stagnation persisted, with widening disparities. The DID analysis further suggests that the fiscal benefits of the restart were limited and unevenly distributed. This study contributes to the literature by quantitatively and spatially assessing the dynamic impacts of exogenous shocks on regional societies, while highlighting both the risks of nuclear dependence and the pressing policy challenge of mitigating regional inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nux27_v1 |
| By: | Megan Borole (Firdale Consulting); Maxine Schaefer (Click Learning); Heleen Hofmeyr (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Bruce McDougall (Firdale Consulting) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between learner engagement with a personalised adaptive learning (PAL) EdTech platform and English literacy outcomes in South African primary schools. Drawing on data from over 20, 000 learners across 226 poorly resourced public schools, we examine whether cumulative time spent on the curriculum-aligned PAL programme (delivered during regular classroom hours) is associated with improved literacy performance. Using cross-sectional regression models, we find a positive and statistically significant association between platform usage and English literacy scores. The association holds across grades, with only modest variation by gender and no evidence of differential effects by language of instruction or school quality. Our findings suggest that PAL technologies can support foundational literacy even in low-resource, multilingual classrooms, and may offer a scalable complement to traditional instruction in contexts facing teacher shortages and large class sizes. |
| Keywords: | Literacy; educational technology; early grade reading; South Africa |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers389 |
| By: | Angelo D'Andrea (Bank of Italy); Patrick Hitayezu (Research Hub, Rwanda); Kangni Kpodar (International Monetary Fund and FERDI); Nicola Limodio (Bocconi University, BAFFI, IGIER and CEPR); Andrea Filippo Presbitero (International Monetary Fund and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Combining administrative data on credit, mortgages, and construction in Rwanda, this paper shows that technology helps overcome imperfections in property rights and foster the development of the mortgage market. Exploiting quasi-experimental variation in 3G internet coverage and a land title reform, we find that mobile connectivity shifts borrowers from microfinance to banks. 3G internet facilitates the distribution of land titles, which borrowers use as collateral for bank loans and mortgages, thus promoting household investment in real estate. A mediation analysis and structural estimation reveal that the property rights channel accounts for 30-37% of the effect of mobile internet on bank lending and 75-80% of the effect on collateralized loans. |
| Keywords: | Banks, Credit, High-speed Internet, Mobile, Mortgage |
| JEL: | G21 G23 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:195 |
| By: | Muellbauer, John |
| Abstract: | The multiple ways in which land and the economy interact underline the importance of entrenching socially beneficial policies for land and housing. Many of the UK's current economic and social problems can be traced to decades of related policy failure. The role of land is strongly dependent on institutions, including land use regulation, financial regulation and property taxation. Subject to deleterious but transformative changes in the 1980s, and persisting to this day, these resulted in high and volatile land prices (with several booms and busts in credit and house prices). The associated speculation diverted financial flows from more productive investment, damaging growth and competitiveness, and increasing financial instability risk. The UK holds the record for the extent of value embedded in the underlying land rather than in buildings. House prices are a weighted average of land prices and housing construction costs (with volatility of the former greatly exceeding the latter). High and volatile land prices are also closely connected with the UK's housing affordability crisis. Policy remedies require a holistic package. This includes planning reform, land value capture, expanding the social housing stock and reforming a dysfunctional property tax system. The current government recognizes the relevance of the first three, but not yet the fourth. This article details a holistic package of measures and the potential gains from a Green Land Value Tax in property tax reform. Politically feasible designs for less ambitious first steps are discussed. |
| Keywords: | land, housing, property tax, planning reform, land value capture, social housing stock |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-25 |
| By: | Shuangshuang Wang; Siu Kei Wong |
| Abstract: | Typhoons are becoming more intense, destructive, and unpredictable due to global warming. Different from low-frequency disasters with single-impact nature (e.g., earthquakes and floods), typhoons exhibit cyclical risk patterns—frequent low-loss events interspersed with rare highly-destructive typhoons—which amplify vertical risk perception through availability heuristics. While previous studies on typhoon risk capitalization mainly focus on horizontal proxies such as flood zone maps, This study examines how typhoons' unique intermittent risk cycles reshape vertical housing price gradients through risk salience amplification. We introduce the “typhoon-induced vertical gradient”—greater price discounts on higher floors post-typhoon. We establish a risk capitalization framework that incorporates floor-level heterogeneity in high-rise structures to investigate the typhoon-induced vertical gradient and how this vertical gradient varies across different regions. The results reveal a typhoon-induced vertical gradient within the high-rises and the higher the floor level, the greater the vertical gradient is. We also hope to find that this vertical gradient would be more significant in the high-risk regions than in the low-risk regions. This gradient exhibits spatial self-reinforcement – high-risk regions demonstrate stronger effects than low-risk areas By formalizing cognitive constraints in vertical space pricing, this research bridges behavioral finance with urban economics. The findings provide insurers with floor-level risk premia models and inform climate-resilient zoning policies through 3D risk mapping. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Housing Price; Risk Perception; typhoon-induced vertical gradient |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_260 |
| By: | Guillaume Toussaint; Arnaud Simon |
| Abstract: | In an ageing region such as Europe, the question of the link between housing prices and demographics is an important issue. According to Eurostat, the fertility rate in 2024 was 1.53 children per woman, below the threshold for population growth of 2.1 children per woman. France, the European Union country with the highest number of children per woman in 2024 (INSEE, 2024), remains below the 2.1 threshold (the rate is 1.84). So, as in all ageing countries, the question of access to property arises. Indeed, as shown by Yang (2009), housing is perceived as a secured asset, which means that housing capital does not necessarily decrease with age, unlike consumption. This raises the question of access to housing for the younger generations, what Yates (2011) called “housing structural sustainability”, or “the needs of the present generation [that] can be met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.This article aim to analyze the housing structural sustainability in France through a quantitative analysis of the variation of the housing stock in France between 2012 and 2022. From an exhaustive dataset of housing transactions, we train a machine learning model to estimate a price for the entire housing stock based on a tax file dataset. Thanks to this new dataset, we take a comprehensive look at housing ownership between 2012 and 2022 and question the role of ageing in the concentration of wealth, which answers the following question: to what extent does ageing affect housing structural sustainability?This work is an original contribution in that it attempts to measure the concept of housing structural sustainability introduced by Yates through an exhaustive database of the housing stock in France and a spatial econometrics analysis. |
| Keywords: | Ageing; housing; Mass Appraisal; Structural sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_26 |
| By: | Ismail Ahmed; Simon Thaler; David Koch |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the influence of AI-enhanced images on real estate valuation through the lens of the Wisdom of the Crowd approach. Participants were asked to estimate the value of a residential property based on original images and later on AI-manipulated images (e.g., improved interior design). The study involved 109 participants, divided into three groups: experts (real estate appraisers), semi-experts (bank employees with market insights), and laypersons(individuals with general local knowledge). The initial valuations across all groups showed no significant differences, indicating a stable Wisdom of the Crowd effect. The mean valuations were €283, 000 for experts, €289, 000 for semi-experts, and €273, 000 for laypersons, with variance decreasing as participants’ expertise increased. After viewing AI-enhanced images, significant shifts in valuation occurred: laypersons and semi-experts exhibited highly significant changes, with mean differences of -€42, 400 and -€40, 375, respectively, while experts showed a smaller but still significant adjustment of -€11, 600 on average. These results demonstrate that AI-driven image manipulation can substantially impact property valuation, particularly among non-experts. This highlights the importance of standardized image presentation in real estate to ensure unbiased assessments. Furthermore, the findings support the superiority of non-expert groups in Wisdom of the Crowd-based valuation, provided external influences such as image manipulation are minimized. |
| Keywords: | AI-enhanced images; Real Estate Valuation; Wisdom of the crowd |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_219 |
| By: | Sevilla Sanz, Maria Almudena; Cuevas Ruiz, Pilar; Rello, Luz; Sanz, Ismael |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Computer-Assisted Learning (CAL) offer powerful tools to improve foundational skills and close educational gaps, with evidence showing meaningful gains in student performance, especially in mathematics. Recent advancements in these technologies have generated optimism about their transformative potential in classrooms worldwide. These technologies are increasingly being piloted at scale, reshaping the way teachers deliver content and students engage with material. However, their impact depends less on access to devices and more on how they are integrated into teaching—through curriculum alignment, teacher training, and interactive design that promotes active learning. Without careful implementation, these tools risk widening existing inequalities. Using new evidence from Italy, we show that digital divides in AI adoption persist across schools and regions, reflecting broader social and economic disparities. Our findings suggest that realising the potential of AI in education requires inclusive policies and targeted investment to ensure no student is left behind, and that the benefits of digital innovation are shared equitably. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence in education; computer-assisted learning; AI-guided tutors; digital divide; PISA; Italian schools |
| JEL: | I21 O33 C88 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130010 |
| By: | Ece Özmen |
| Abstract: | The real estate sector holds strategic importance due to its direct impact on economic growth and social welfare. In this context, as the need for professionalization in the sector increases, the significance of academic programs aimed at meeting the demand for qualified human resources has become increasingly evident. This study examines the impact of associate degree programs in Turkey’s real estate sector through the example of the Real Estate Management Program at Salihli Vocational School. Salihli Vocational School has adopted a mission to train professionals who contribute to the real estate sector at both regional and national levels, emphasizing a balanced approach to both theoretical and practical education. The study delves into the curriculum structure, applied education models, and functional relevance of real estate management programs within the sectoral context. Particularly, the integration of contemporary topics such as sustainability, social media utilization, and digitalization into curricula enhances these programs’ capacity to adapt to the sector's evolving needs. This study highlights Salihli Vocational School’s contributions as a model among institutions offering real estate management education in Turkey while providing recommendations for elevating professional standards within the sector. Additionally, it serves as a crucial guide for developing educational policies to shape the future of the real estate industry. |
| Keywords: | professionalization; Real Estate Education; real estate management programme; Türkiye |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_149 |
| By: | Soon Hyeok Choi; Dongshin Kim |
| Abstract: | Affordable, low-priced homeownership supported by mortgages is becoming increasingly challenging. In 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports that small mortgage ($100, 000 or less) originations fell by 28% in Pennsylvania, 43% in New Jersey, and 28% in Delaware from 2019 to 2021, for example. This trend hinders homeownership opportunities for relatively underserved communities, resulting in their continued status as renters rather than owners. We examine the underlying factors contributing to the lower approval rates for small mortgage applications by utilizing the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) dataset. Our preliminary findings, based on California data for the years 2021 and 2023, reveal that national commercial banks are 13% less likely to approve small mortgages (bottom 25% quantile mortgage size) compared to mid-sized loans (25%-75% quantile). Conversely, shadow banks (or mortgage bankers) exhibit no economically significant difference in approval rates. This discrepancy can be attributed to the contrasting organizational incentives of commercial banks and shadow banks. In general, the mortgage industry is structured so that larger loans generate more profits for originators and lenders. Commercial banks maintain diverse investment arms in addition to residential mortgages, allowing them to exercise greater selectivity towards larger loan offerings. Conversely, shadow banks that only engage in mortgage lending have limited capacity to be selective. Particularly in 2023, due to higher interest rates, borrowers’ debt-to-income ratios (ability to pay measure) have deteriorated. This heightened the borrowers’ default risk, disproportionately more for small mortgage borrowers. As a result, in 2023, local banks and credit unions also reduced approval rates for small mortgages, mirroring the trend set by national commercial banks. |
| Keywords: | commercial banks; Interest Rate; shadow banks; small mortgages |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_255 |
| By: | Marian Rau; Wolfgang Schäfers |
| Abstract: | Institutional investors and managers of mixed-asset portfolios face a critical challenge in day-to-day practice: determining the appropriate risk of a specific asset, i.e. the mark-up over the risk-free return. In the context of direct real estate investing, they seek to understand how much of the premium stems from market conditions, property attributes, or location. This study addresses these questions by decomposing and explaining the asset risk of commercial real estate, a vital yet underexplored aspect in today’s volatile market environment. Prior research has identified certain factors that influence commercial real estate risk profiles, but has not successfully quantified their impact magnitudes or accounted for the non-linear and time-varying interactions among them. Using property-level data on U.S. commercial real estate from the early 1970s to 2024, we estimate asset risk premia, i.e. the spread between a property’s cap rate and the risk-free return, as a function of macroeconomic indicators, property characteristics, and location data. Employing eXtreme Gradient Boosting, we uncover non-linear patterns in the data, while SHapley Additive Explanations enhance model transparency by uncovering factor contributions. Our findings reveal how market dynamics and property-specific traits drive risk premia across different economic cycles, offering investors a systematic, data-driven tool for transparent asset risk assessment. This methodology empowers practitioners to make informed decisions in uncertain markets. Academically, the study advances the field by (1) integrating granular property-level and micro-location data, (2) leveraging machine learning techniques, and (3) shedding light on the complexities of private real estate risk decomposition and pricing dynamics over multiple market cycles. |
| Keywords: | Asset Risk; Explainable Artificial Intelligence; investment decision-making; Real Estate Asset Pricing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_145 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | I develop a nonparametric framework for identifying spatial boundaries of treatment effects without imposing parametric functional form restrictions. The method employs local linear regression with data-driven bandwidth selection to flexibly estimate spatial decay patterns and detect treatment effect boundaries. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the nonparametric approach exhibits lower bias and correctly identifies the absence of boundaries when none exist, unlike parametric methods that may impose spurious spatial patterns. I apply this framework to bank branch openings during 2015--2020, matching 5, 743 new branches to 5.9 million mortgage applications across 14, 209 census tracts. The analysis reveals that branch proximity significantly affects loan application volume (8.5\% decline per 10 miles) but not approval rates, consistent with branches stimulating demand through local presence while credit decisions remain centralized. Examining branch survival during the digital transformation era (2010--2023), I find a non-monotonic relationship with area income: high-income areas experience more closures despite conventional wisdom. This counterintuitive pattern reflects strategic consolidation of redundant branches in over-banked wealthy urban areas rather than discrimination against poor neighborhoods. Controlling for branch density, urbanization, and competition, the direct income effect diminishes substantially, with branch density emerging as the primary determinant of survival. These findings demonstrate the necessity of flexible nonparametric methods for detecting complex spatial patterns that parametric models would miss, and challenge simplistic narratives about banking deserts by revealing the organizational complexity underlying spatial consolidation decisions. |
| Keywords: | Spatial econometrics, nonparametric methods, treatment effects, bank branches, financial access, digital transformation |
| JEL: | C14 C21 G21 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126730 |
| By: | Tarek Al-Rimawi; Michael Nadler |
| Abstract: | Integrating smart city technologies into real estate development is one of the most significant factors that would transform traditional real estate into smart ones. It presents significant opportunities for enhancing real estate developments' smartness, efficiency, sustainability, and overall value. This paper explores the added values of these technologies across various phases of the real estate development life cycle phases. By comprehensively reviewing existing literature and case studies, 131 distinct added values that smart technologies contribute to real estate development were found. The findings highlight how smart technologies optimize smart real estate throughout their life cycle phases, leading to smarter, enhanced user experiences and more valued and integrated real estate developments. The research investigated sixteen Key smart technologies: big data, artificial intelligence (AI), information and communications technology (ICT), Internet of Things (IoT), clouds and software as a service (SaaS), drones, 3D Scanning, wearable technologies, virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Building Information Modeling (BIM), Digital Twin, blockchain and smart contracts. This paper aims to provide real estate developers, urban planners, and policymakers with actionable insights into the strategic implementation of smart city technologies to develop smarter real estate. Stakeholders can better leverage these technologies by understanding the specific benefits and possible challenges associated with each life cycle phase. They would be able to clearly identify which technology suits their needs and enhance their goals. |
| Keywords: | integrative review; Smart City; Smart Real Estate; smart technologies |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_52 |
| By: | Mathieu Lambotte |
| Abstract: | I introduce heterogeneity into the analysis of peer effects that arise from conformity, allowing the strength of the taste for conformity to vary across agents' actions. Using a structural model based on a simultaneous network game with incomplete information, I derive conditions for equilibrium uniqueness and for the identification of heterogeneous peer-effect parameters. I also propose specification tests to determine whether the conformity model or the spillover model is consistent with the observed data in the presence of heterogeneous peer effects. Applying the model to data on smoking and alcohol consumption among secondary school students, I show that assuming a homogeneous preference for conformity leads to biased estimates. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.15891 |
| By: | Renata Rechnio |
| Abstract: | Past financial crises have shown that unsustainable developments in real estate markets can have a negative impact on economic growth and financial stability. Therefore, monitoring of real estate markets play important role in monetary, macro- and micro-prudential policy frameworks. Although availability of statistics for residential real estate improved significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, large data gaps remain for commercial real estate (CRE), which hampers effective analysis and early identification of possible risks. In October 2016, the ESRB issued Recommendation ESRB/2016/14 on closing real estate data gaps, which was subsequently amended in 2019 with Recommendation ESRB/2019/3. One of aspects addressed by the recommendation is the existing data gaps in the availability and comparability of data on CRE markets. In particular, it indicates the need for harmonised price, rent and rental yield indices compiled with quarterly frequency and with the breakdowns into different property types and into prime and non-prime locations. The features of CRE markets and the available data sources, combined with the granularity of information expected by data users, make developing reliable and timely indicators challenging. In recent years, Eurostat and the Member States have together investigated the feasibility of developing commercial real estate statistics. They have made significant progress particularly on prices and rents, even if practical and methodological challenges remain. This paper presents the progress made by Eurostat and national statistical institutes towards developing non-financial CRE statistics. Moreover, it discusses the main methodological and practical issues faced by data producers. It also informs about the European Commission work aimed at ensuring the future legislative framework for production of official CRE indicators. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate indicators; non-financial statistics; Price Index; Rent Index |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_82 |
| By: | Siu Kei (Kelvi Wong; Yidi Yang; Lok Yiu Leung |
| Abstract: | Cross-border travel functions as a form of shopping tourism, fulfilling both individual economic needs and leisure pursuits while substantially contributing to the valuation of retail property—a critical subsector of real estate. As an international financial hub and China's Special Administrative Region (SAR), Hong Kong possesses a distinctive retail ecosystem tailored for cross-border consumption. The cross-border flow between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, its neighboring city within China's Greater Bay Area, has historically served as a vital socioeconomic connection, although it was suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic due to public health precautions. This study investigates the impact of cross-border travel on the performance of Hong Kong’s retail property market, focusing on the periods before the pandemic-induced lockdown and after the reopening of border checkpoints. By analyzing retail property performance indicators and transaction data, our findings reveal that the retail property market is more strongly influenced by inbound travelers-specifically, mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong- than by outbound travelers, namely Hong Kong residents traveling to Shenzhen. In addition, the more significant price decline in shopping areas after the reopening suggests that the retail market performance is particularly sensitive to inbound travel. These findings offer policymakers actionable insights for designing tourism strategies to revitalize Hong Kong's retail sector. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Cross-border travel; Inbound travel; Retail property market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_249 |
| By: | Brett A. McCully; Torsten Jaccard; Christoph Albert |
| Abstract: | Who buys imports? By augmenting U.S. grocery purchase data to include origin countries of both products and households, we provide the first evidence that immigrants exhibit substantially stronger preferences for imported consumer goods than natives. We develop and estimate a quantitative trade model to show that immigrants also reduce trade costs and expand the effective market size for foreign goods, thereby increasing local import supply for all households. Overall, however, immigrants generate considerably more local import expenditure via their own purchases than via spillovers to natives, with profound implications for the distributional costs of a negative trade shock, such as an import tariff: the average within-county difference in welfare costs between immigrants and natives is over six times the across-county standard deviation in native household costs. |
| Keywords: | gains from trade, heterogeneous preferences, spillover effects |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J61 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12278 |
| By: | Lan Song; Ping Lyu |
| Abstract: | Housing conditions have a significant impact on human health. For a long time, the dual urban-rural system of China has led to significant differences in housing between urban and rural areas, and the cumulative impact of housing environment can result in inequality of opportunity in health among the elderly. Based on Roemer's equal opportunity theory and using data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), it was found that the average gap in health opportunities between rural and urban elderly populations is 2.359, accounting for approximately 3.5% of the average health level of rural elderly. The degree of inequality of opportunity in health between urban and rural elderly groups is divided by the Hu line, with higher levels of inequality in the western and northern region. Using the Shapley value method, the specific impact of housing on inequality of opportunity in health was quantified from four dimensions: housing asset value, housing property stability, housing comfort, and housing facility convenience. Their overall contribution was as high as 87%. Based on the above research results, we propose improvement paths from the housing sector: coordinating the promotion of urban and rural environmental transformation for elderly, exploring the new security model “housing(or land)-based eldercare” for rural elderly, and establishing the integration of urban and rural housing security system. |
| Keywords: | Healthy Aging; housing; Opportunity in Health; Urban and Rural |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_54 |
| By: | Nikolaos Triantafyllopoulos |
| Abstract: | Adaptation to climate change depends mainly on actions undertaken in urban areas, cities being simultaneously part of the problem and its solution. The European Union and states establish ambitious policies and measures to achieve targets for the energy upgrade of buildings. New technologies are developing rapidly, but important barriers prevent their implementation in space. This paper explores the question of whether building upgrades are required to upgrade the real estate market in vulnerable urban areas, or vice versa. A deprived area of central Athens serves as a case study. Based on field research data, cases of energy renovation of buildings through a public-private partnership including state aid scheme are analysed. It is argued that for decisions to be made on the energy upgrading of buildings, both by owners and investors, in addition to the profit from reducing energy costs, there must be tangible benefits from increasing the market value of buildings and generating capital gains. Surplus values can be obtained through urban regeneration interventions. For a building, energy retrofitting is a financial investment in a capital asset and energy policies are most effective when tangible benefits are made significant, using market forces. Higher prices for energy-renovated properties can motivate owners. For a real estate investor, property value appreciation is a significant driver for energy investments and decisions are based primarily on property market fundamentals, the quality of the area in which it is located, as well as their expectations for and secondarily on the energy performance of buildings, the impact of which is incorporated into their market value. This means that the energy market is subordinate to the property market and not the opposite, as it is frequently stated. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Real Estate Market; Urban Regeneration; vulnerable urban areas |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_183 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a unified theoretical and empirical framework for analyzing treatment effects that propagate through both spatial proximity and network connections. Building on the continuous functional approach in \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical} and the Navier-Stokes foundation in \citet{kikuchi2024navier}, I introduce network channels as continuous internal degrees of freedom, deriving both spatial diffusion and network contagion from common first principles rooted in conservation laws and stochastic processes. The framework resolves three fundamental challenges in modern econometrics: how spatial and network effects interact (the mixed effect), how treatment effects evolve in general equilibrium, and how network structure affects system fragility. I show that the mixed spatial-network effect emerges naturally at second order in perturbation theory, creating synergistic amplification when geographic proximity and network similarity align. The theoretical analysis yields three main contributions. First, I derive explicit expressions for the mixed effect functional, showing it equals the mutual information between spatial and network coordinates—a purely information-theoretic measure with no free parameters. Second, I extend the analysis to general equilibrium, proving that endogenous price and employment adjustments amplify partial equilibrium estimates by factors between 1.8 and 2.5 depending on market structure. Third, I connect network structure to system fragility through entropy production rates, providing operational measures of how consolidation affects shock dissipation speeds and cascade probabilities. The empirical application uses county-level wage data (2018-2023) to analyze minimum wage spillovers across 3, 142 U.S. counties and 274 industry classifications. Four main findings emerge. First, the mixed spatial-network effect accounts for 40 percent of total treatment propagation, with point estimate 0.043 (s.e. 0.008), statistically significant and economically large. This implies retail workers in Nevada counties near the California border experience wage increases 43 percent larger than the sum of pure spatial spillover (from proximity alone) and pure network effect (from industry connections) would predict. Second, spatial decay parameters increase from 0.01 per mile for pure geographic spillovers to 0.02 when network effects are included, demonstrating that networks concentrate rather than disperse spatial impacts. Third, general equilibrium amplification factors range from 1.8 (dispersed markets) to 2.5 (concentrated markets), implying substantial bias in partial equilibrium policy evaluation. Fourth, entropy-based fragility measures predict out-of-sample shock propagation with $R^2 = 0.67$, outperforming standard network centrality metrics ($R^2 = 0.43$). These findings have direct policy implications. Minimum wage policies should account for network amplification: optimal state-level minimum wages are 15-20 percent lower when accounting for general equilibrium feedbacks through supply chains and labor mobility networks. Financial regulation should monitor entropy production rates as early warning indicators: systems approaching critical fragility thresholds (entropy production declining by more than 30 percent) require preemptive intervention before cascades materialize. Regional development policies should leverage spatial-network synergies: infrastructure investments yield highest returns in regions with strong geographic clustering and dense economic networks. |
| Keywords: | Spatial treatment effects, network economics, general equilibrium, continuous functionals, diffusion processes, entropy production, mixed effects, system fragility, minimum wage, labor markets |
| JEL: | C14 C21 C31 C51 D04 E24 I38 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126723 |
| By: | Belotti, Emanuele; Bortolotti, Alberto; Coppola, Alessandro; Corcillo, Piero; Cordini, Marta; Hodkinson, Stuart; Watt, Paul |
| Abstract: | Research on housing financialisation in North America and Europe has explored the growing role of institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds as both funders and owners of residential housing. Several investment waves and different entry points have been identified, from opportunistic acquisitions related to early public housing privatisations in Northern Europe, the predatory grabbing of distressed assets in the United States and Europe following the global financial crisis, to the more recent long-term corporate landlordism under ‘financialisation 2.0’. Following recent scholarship on the essential de-risking role of the state in this process, this article compares the rise of institutional investment in different Build-to-Rent sectors of London and Milan to bring new insights on the role of the state in de-risking urban space through ‘mega-event urbanism’. We show how the exceptional state intervention involved in making the London 2012 Olympics and the 2015 Milan Expo worked hand-in-glove with long-term neoliberal path dependencies and the global financial crisis to de-risk institutional investment in local rental markets and boost new asset class formation. |
| Keywords: | corporate landlords; institutional investors; mega-events; neoliberalism; planning; rental housing; state de-risking |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130247 |
| By: | Rongjun Ao; Ling Zhong; Jing Chen; Xiaojing Li; Xiaoqi Zhou |
| Abstract: | While prior research has emphasized the path-dependent nature of occupational systems, it has paid limited attention to how local industrial structures contribute to occupational change. To address this gap, this study examines how regional occupational evolution is shaped by two distinct mechanisms: (1) path-dependent skill and knowledge transfer, whereby new occupations emerge through the recombination of existing occupational structures; and (2) industry-driven task reconfiguration, through which industrial upgrading reshapes the demand for occupations. To operationalize these dynamics, the concept of industry–occupation cross-relatedness is introduced, capturing the proximity between new occupations and a region’s existing industrial portfolio. Drawing on panel data from 241 Chinese cities between 2000 and 2015, the study estimates the effects of both occupational relatedness and cross-relatedness on new occupation specialization. The results reveal that both mechanisms significantly promote occupational evolution, yet they tend to function as substitutes rather than complements. Furthermore, their effects differ across skill levels: high-skilled occupations are more responsive to industrial transformation, low-skilled occupations to occupational pathways, while medium-skilled occupations exhibit relatively weak responsiveness to both. These findings underscore the importance of structural conditions and skill heterogeneity in shaping regional patterns of occupational change. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Evolution; Path Dependence; Chinese Cities; Industry-Occupation Cross-Relatedness; Skill Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R11 O14 N95 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2534 |
| By: | Alexandra Verlhiac; Julie Le Gallo; Marie Breuille; Sébastien Houde; Camille Grilvault |
| Abstract: | Migration is an adaptation strategy to climate change and the associated extreme climatic events that increase in intensity and frequency. However, frictions and barriers to move induce an intention gap, i.e., a difference between intended and actual residential migrations. One of the original features of our paper is to exploit innovative data, that is, user activity on the real-estate platform SeLoger (mobility intentions) and La Poste mail forwarding contracts (effective moves), to get day-to-day information on reactions induced by a specific extreme event, and to compute a migration intention gap. We evaluate the impact on these three outcomes of a geographically and temporally well-defined extreme event, the unusually destructive forest fires in the Landes (France) in the summer of 2022. We build a control group similar to municipalities affected by these forest fires with a matching method and estimate difference-in-differences models. Our results show that this event both affected positively intentions and negatively real moves. Particularly, the intention gap increases: if households intend to move, they do not necessarily take action. |
| Keywords: | Climate Risk; housing market; Real estate mar- ket platforms data; Residential Migration |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_153 |
| By: | Nalumino Akakandelwa; Kathy Pain; Eleanor Eaton; Alistair Hunt; Oliver Tannor |
| Abstract: | The paper reports findings from a real estate study examining asset management decision-making outcomes for urban population health and wellbeing in a five-year programme funded by the United Kingdom Prevention Research Partnership (UKPRP). We find that despite an industry appetite for demonstrating how portfolio strategies promote sustainable urban environments that produce resilient risk-adjusted returns on investment, there is a paucity of health and wellbeing data to inform portfolio management models. Evidence of responsible Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) performance has become seen as a commercial priority but environmental sustainability has taken precedence in investor reporting due to the superior availability of carbon data. Focusing on two large investment management funds with extensive UK urban asset portfolios, we take on the challenge of testing how monetised health and wellbeing value generated by urban redevelopment can inform asset management healthy urban placemaking aligned with investor financial returns aspirations. We conclude that In the context of the contemporary financialization of property and assetization of urban space, urban land and property repurposing and upgrading presents an opportunity to create social value in operational models for wealth creation. |
| Keywords: | Asset portfolio; Healthy placemaking; real estate; social value |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_250 |
| By: | Priyaranjan Jha; Karan Talathi |
| Abstract: | We exploit the creation of Chhattisgarh (CH) from Madhya Pradesh (MP) in 2000 as a natural experiment to study how regional autonomy affects economic development through administrative proximity and political accountability. Using both difference-in-differences and difference-in-discontinuities designs, we compare villages straddling the new state border before and after the split. Villages in CH near the border experienced significantly faster economic growth—measured by nighttime lights, expansion of private firms and non-farm employment, and improved provision of public goods—than comparable MP villages. These gains are not explained by political stability, party ideology, or migration. Instead, they arise from a more responsive local elite in-charge of the new administration as well as closer proximity to the new state capital, Raipur, which enhanced bureaucratic oversight and political accountability. The results demonstrate that the geography of administration—the distance between citizens and state institutions—can shape development outcomes as powerfully as formal political institutions. |
| Keywords: | state autonomy and control, responsive governance, economic development, proximity, capital, accountability |
| JEL: | D72 H41 H70 H77 O10 O40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12264 |
| By: | Adrián Carro (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Jorge E. Galán (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Enric Martorell (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Raquel Vegas (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive literature review on the effects of borrower-based macroprudential measures (BBMs)—such as loan-to-value (LTV), debt-to-income (DTI) and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) limits—with a particular focus on their effectiveness in mitigating systemic risks in housing markets. The review synthesizes findings from both empirical and theoretical studies. The evidence shows that BBMs are effective tools for addressing systemic risks arising from household over-indebtedness and real estate market imbalances. Empirical studies indicate that stricter mortgage lending standards significantly reduce the probability of default, moderate credit growth during expansionary phases and enhance the resilience of the financial system. Theoretical models further suggest that BBMs help stabilize credit cycles, lower the likelihood of financial crises and mitigate adverse welfare effects during downturns. However, they also highlight potential redistributive consequences. Overall, the evidence supports the inclusion of BBMs as core instruments within the macroprudential policy framework, while underscoring the need for flexible design and ongoing evaluation based on granular data and advanced modeling to ensure their effectiveness and minimize unintended effects. |
| Keywords: | borrower-based measures, credit growth, defaults, house prices, macroprudential policy, models and mortgages |
| JEL: | C83 E44 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2524e |
| By: | Julius Kerker; Sven Bienert |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the resilience of green premiums and brown discounts on German residential property markets during the ongoing economic crisis. While previous research extensively examines green premiums and brown discounts in growing markets, little is known about their persistence during economic downturns. We address this gap by exploring how green building characteristics, especially energy efficiency, influence property values in challenging market conditions. The setting of the study is the ongoing German real estate market crisis, marked by soaring energy prices, inflation, rising construction costs and rapid interest hikes. It severly reduced residential property values in Germany, providing a suitable market phase to investigate whether investing in sustainable properties can offer a hedge against negative market developments. The study analyses an extensive dataset, covering detailed hedonic characteristics for German residential property markets spanning from 2017 to 2024. Given the immediate onset of the crisis in February 2022, a Difference-in-Differences analysis is used to examine a potential impact of the economic downturn on green premiums and brown discounts. The research provides policymakers and investors with valuable insights into green premiums and brown discounts by analysing if energy-efficient properties benefit from enhanced economic resilience. The findings indicate whether sustainable investments should be prioritised in residential property markets to support long-term stability and mitigate the impacts of volatility. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to provide empirical insights into the resilience of green premiums and brown discounts to challenging market periods. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Green Buildings; Green premium; Residential Buildings |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_83 |
| By: | Haocheng Chen; Niels Kuiper; Xiaolong Liu; Arno Van der Vlist |
| Abstract: | Using a national coverage micro dataset in the Netherlands that links house sales with single-family house (SFH) splits – a form of gentle densification where existing SFHs are subdivided into multiple units –, we present new evidence that a SFH split located within a 0-150 meter radius reduces nearby SFH sale prices by an average of 1.17%. This effect is consistent with disamenity effects (e.g., loss of privacy, local resource competition and aversions to different household types), imposed by new residents in SFH splits on the existing SFH residents. We also show that on average, an SFH split have no statistically significant effect on apartment sales and on only ground-floor low-rise apartment sales. This is likely stems from two key factors: the inherent structural design of apartment buildings and greater demographic homogeneity between apartment residents and new occupants of SFH splits. Finally, we demonstrate our findings are unlikely to be driven by the supply effects, as sales involving newly created units from SFH splits are rare in our dataset and no price effects are observed even for ground-floor low-rise apartment sales, which would be most susceptible to supply-side competition from SFH splits given their close substitutability. |
| Keywords: | Externalities; House Prices; single-family house splits; Spillover effect |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_298 |
| By: | Han, Lu; Ngai, L. Rachel; Sheedy, Kevin D. |
| Abstract: | Using sales and leasing data, this paper finds three novel effects of a higher property transaction tax: higher buy-to-rent transactions alongside lower buy-to-own transactions despite both being taxed, a lower sales-to-leases ratio, and a lower price-to-rent ratio. This paper explains these facts by developing a search model with entry of investors and households, households choosing to own or rent in the presence of credit frictions, and homeowners deciding when to move house. A higher transaction tax reduces homeowners’ mobility and increases demand for rental properties, which explains the empirical facts and leads to a lower homeownership rate. The deadweight loss is large at 111% of tax revenue, with more than half of this due to distorting decisions to own or rent. |
| Keywords: | rental market; buy-to-rent investors; homeownership rate; transaction taxes |
| JEL: | D83 E22 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127406 |
| By: | Thierry Blayac (CEE-M, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France); Patrice Bougette (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Jules Duberga |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the pricing strategies used in long-distance carpooling in France. We investigate how several factors affect carpooling prices using a comprehensive dataset of BlaBlaCar trips combined with sociodemographic and intermodal competition data. The analysis identifies two distinct pricing patterns within the platform: one characterized by standardized and consistent pricing, and another marked by more flexible, market-responsive price setting. By focusing on price per minute, we examine how trip characteristics, competitive conditions, and demand heterogeneity affect these pricing behaviors. The results show that variables such as the number of stopovers, trip length, airport or cross-border connections, and the presence of alternative transport modes influence pricing, but with contrasting effects across the two patterns. The standardized approach tends to reflect cost-sharing principles and reinforces network effects, while the more flexible approach adapts dynamically to local competition and demand. |
| Keywords: | Carpooling, pricing strategy, platforms, intermodal competition, travel behavior |
| JEL: | D43 L11 L91 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2025-47 |
| By: | Jay Mittal; Sweta Byahut |
| Abstract: | The three-prong approach includes Project Visioning, Market Analysis and Financial Analysis as the three core pillars. Students are challenged to start with the big idea for the project site based on site characteristics and location, later this vision is corrected by feeding market information and a rough financial analysis is conducted. The paper highlights the role of initial big idea based on site analysis without the market intelligence that gives rise to creativity, testing the market information and iterating the plan and the initial vison brings project to ground reality without losing creativity, and a development of a rough cut proforma helps in developing a sense of project costs, revenues and thus ideal densities and FAR usage for the site. Reiterating the big idea design and adjusting the financials to align with the market information (costs, rents, and absorption), and thus the design, students develop a big idea project with focus on branding the newly created real estate to attract potential users and investors. The Capstone Course Faculty also benefits in the process as it starts seeing the project more holistically from design, market, and financial point of view. Furthermore, involvement of the investor panel at the time of review connects students and the academic faculty with the industry stalwarts and students pitch their final ideas in the form of IOM to the investor panel. The paper offers lessons that other graduate programs can use to improve student learning outcomes for their final capstone project including building capacity for their faculty. |
| Keywords: | Capstone Project Pedagogy; Graduate Real Estate Development Program; Student Learning Outconmes; Teaching and Service Learning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_190 |
| By: | Grazyna Wiejak-Roy; Ytzen van der Werf; Zara Brewer; Alex Kountourides |
| Abstract: | Real estate businesses seek graduates not just with strong foundations so they can hit the ground running but increasingly more importantly with communication and reporting skills. Valuation, on top of technical skills, requires life skills such as attention to detail, proficiency in business writing and leveraging new technologies. This research provides a reflective account on a pedagogy experiment in which an AI-based valuation reporting tool was used in teaching and assessing postgraduate real estate students. While the AI-tool automates valuation report production (data gathering, mapping, report writing, templating, and audit trails) and avoids AI hallucinations by integrating information, it helps increase the accuracy of valuations. However, it does not generate advice-type outputs, which means that it does not replace valuers and still requires them to provide inputs based on their knowledge and professional judgment. The reflective account includes dilemmas around (1) the need to embed PropTech in teaching real estate valuation; (2) dealing with academic institutions’ reactive approaches to formally embracing technological innovations; (3) approaches to designing assessments embedding specific AI solutions; and (4) potential benefits of using AI-based PropTech in real estate education. Our observations suggest a great potential for AI-based PropTech in real estate education. However, this does not come without challenges that must be overcome by educators and their institutions. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Real Estate Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_291 |
| By: | Matthias Soot; Sabine Horvath; Danielle Warstat; Hans-Berndt Neuner; Alexandra Weitkamp |
| Abstract: | Analyzing the real estate market using modern machine learning (ML) methods is increasingly becoming a common approach. The variables (factors) influencing the real estate market (purchase price or value) behave non-linearly often. For this reason, the ML-methods seem to outperform the previously established linear regression models – especially in modelling bigger datasets from large spatial submarkets or long timespans. However, many approaches found in the literature use the same influencing parameters known from the multiple linear regression models for the new non-parametric approaches. It remains unclear whether there are further influencing variables that only prove significant in a non-linear model. The selection of influencing factors is understood here as model selection: In this work, we investigate model selection approaches on inhomogeneous German real estate transaction data from Brandenburg, Saxony and Lower Saxony. The aim of the research is an improved automatization in the context of model selection starting from raw data. As functional submarket, we aggregate multi-family houses with apartments to increase the sample size. The dataset has several data gaps in explaining parameters e.g. living space. Furthermore, the influencing variables differ between apartments and multi-family houses. We are therefore developing a method to model this inhomogeneity in a single approach (e.g. factor analysis). We consider Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB) as ML-models for which the model selection is performed. We compare the found parameters with classical model selection used for a linear approach. |
| Keywords: | Germany; Machine-Learning; Model-selection |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_245 |
| By: | Olayiwola Oladiran |
| Abstract: | Office market demand is theoretically underpinned by the optimal use of office space. Traditional models account for macro-level factors such as population growth, employment, and GDP, micro-level factors such as changes in technology and work practices and organisational strategies including occupiers' activities, changing tenants' space needs, new tenants emerging from start-up businesses, relocation of firms, and existing tenants upgrading their space requirements. Due to the fluid nature of workspace use following the pandemic, there is a gap in knowledge regarding the theoretical underpinnings of current workspace use and insufficient insight to support the development of strategies for optimal and efficient use and management of workspaces. Furthermore, contemporary models such as hybrid working, and shared spaces have made space users’ perspectives important. This paper explores the key factors that are (re)defining current workspace use and management and investigates stakeholders' (users, employers and property managers) perceptions and sentiments about the workspace dynamics. We interviewed 24 stakeholders in three categories: 14 workspace users (employees), 7 senior executives and HR managers and 3 corporate real estate. We observed a positive sentiment towards the recent changes to work patterns and the preference for blended/hybrid work settings. Our findings also indicate that organisations and corporate real estate managers will need to address important balances and trade-offs as part of their workspace use and management strategies. The insights from this study reinforce the link between workspace use and management with organisational performance and growth and contribute to the broader literature on social dimensions of real estate use, planning and management. |
| Keywords: | Blended working models; Flexible working; Organisational strategies; Workspace management |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_227 |
| By: | Yidan Ma |
| Abstract: | After nearly 50 years of reform, the Chinese economy experienced exponential growth at the expense of the environment. China's air pollution has reached critical levels, necessitating an urgent transformation. The Chinese government has proposed an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. Following this ambitious environmental goal, regulators heavily promoted green finance as a key to addressing the funding gap for sustainable infrastructure. The rise of green finance vehicles, with the goal of incentivizing social capital to invest in formally un-attracted sustainable infrastructure and closing the financing gap for green transformation, has gained enormous practical popularity among major sustainable infrastructure developers. While green finance instruments have been extensively studied, the comparative effectiveness of different green finance instruments in attracting social capital remains unknown. This study aims to investigate the relative comparative advantage of the most prominent green finance instrument and the most innovative green finance instrument, namely green bonds and green Real Estate Investment Trust, and to assess their relative effectiveness in increasing social capital's willingness to invest. This study will significantly contribute to our understanding of green finance's effectiveness and inform better policymaking for sustainable urban development and carbon neutrality. |
| Keywords: | Green Finance; Green REITs; Securitization in Chinese Cities; Sustainable Infrastructure Financing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_244 |
| By: | Mugrabi, Farah (Central Bank of Ireland & Université catholique de Louvain); Rünstler, Gerhard (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | We apply the multivariate unobserved components model of Rünstler and Vlekke (2018) to jointly estimate the cyclical and trend components of output, credit, and residential property prices in Ireland. We find that credit and house price cycles are subject to an average duration of about 15 years, considerably longer than the business cycle, estimated at 8.5 years. Compared to several alternative estimation methods, the estimates of house price and credit cycles combine strong early warning performance with superior real-time reliability. Our findings contribute to the monitoring of systemic risks in the Irish economy and the conduct of macroprudential policies. |
| Keywords: | Unobserved components models, Vector Error Correction models, Hodrick–Prescott filter, Christiano–Fitzgerald filter, Business cycles, House prices cycles, Credit cycle, Macroprudential policies. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E44 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:16/rt/25 |
| By: | Alan Gardner |
| Abstract: | The UK investable real estate sector is undergoing fundamental change. Fundamental questions therefore need to be asked – what do we mean by commercial real estate? Where does real estate sit with infrastructure and broader private markets? Why invest in the real estate market now? What are the sources of capital and the most effective structures to access the market? The provision of data and skills required for those entering the profession, in all of its various forms, is in a state of flux. This paper gives a considered view on many of these big questions. It used a qualitative research approach generating primary data through semi-structured interviews across a range of senior real estate professionals, allowing for deeper reflection than a standard market update provides. The findings reflect sentiment in the aftermath of global elections in 2024, recent surge in inflation and move towards more restrictive trade practices. The paper assesses where there are opportunities for investors at the present time with a particular focus on the UK. It’s a mixed picture with a highly segmented market presenting opportunities for inventive and effective asset management strategies including retro-fitting and repurposing to take advantage of demand that does exist. This changes the requirements in terms of data provision and required skills for entering the profession, particularly when AI on people and processes is considered. This paper summarises how things stood at the end of 2024 and highlights opportunities for investors and individuals at this time. |
| Keywords: | obsolesence; private markets; Segmentation; skill requirements |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_15 |
| By: | Bastien Patras |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of mandatory energy performance certification (EPC) disclosure on housing market dynamics in France. Building on a phased implementation of disclosure policies since 2006, the 2021 regulation introduced legally binding EPC visibility in advertisements alongside significant penalties for non-compliance. Using a (i) difference-in-discontinuity framework that exploits cross-border policy variations between France and Belgium and (ii) an event study design exploiting the heterogeneous effect of the regulation, the study accounts for spatial and temporal variations in policy adoption and identifies the causal effects of this policy on property prices. The analysis reveals three key insights. First, energy-inefficient properties (EPC ratings F or G) faced price declines up to -9 percentage points (pp) under mandatory disclosure, signaling a market penalty for inefficiency. Second, efficient properties experienced modest price gains, with houses showing a +3pp increase. Third, the regulation surprisingly fostered strategic nondisclosure, particularly in apartment market, where missing EPC ratings garnered a +14pp price premium four years after enactment. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of market responses across property types and locations. The study concludes by discussing the social welfare implications of mandatory disclosure, including improved affordability for certain buyers, risks of eviction due to price increases, and potential misreporting behaviors. By advancing the understanding of energy efficiency’s role in housing markets, this research offers actionable insights for policymakers seeking to balance climate goals with equitable market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Energy Performance Certification (EPC); Housing Market Dynamics; Mandatory Disclosure Policy; Price Effects and Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_138 |
| By: | Seyedeh Fatemeh Mottaghi; Bertram Steininger |
| Abstract: | The integration of blockchain-based real world assets like real estate tokens into traditional and digital financial markets has introduced new dynamics in information transmission, and inter-markets connectedness. In this paper, we apply entropy measures to to analyze the directional flow of information between digital world assets indices (like real estate tokens and S&P Ethereum), traditional real estate investment trusts (REITs), cryptocurrencies, and major asset classes, including gold, and stock indices (S&P500 and Russell 2000). We observed significant and strong informational linkages between real estate tokens, REITs, SP500, and Russell 2000, highlighting that changes in equity markets and small-cap sentiment play a crucial role in shaping tokenized real estate dynamics. Moreover, the observed statistically significant bidirectional flows between S&P ETH and real estate tokens during the turbulence period like Covid-19 shows growing interconnection between crypto markets and real estate tokens. Our findings highlight the role of real estate tokens as receivers of information from broader financial markets, with limited capacity to transmit information back which offers valuable insights into the interconnected nature of traditional and digital markets, contributing to advancements in risk diversification, portfolio optimization, and the strategic development of digital asset investment frameworks. |
| Keywords: | blockchain; Digital Assets; Entropy analysis; Real Estate Token |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_223 |
| By: | Strebel, Michael A. (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Local governments in many countries struggle to find candidates for elected office. In the resulting uncontested elections, voters cannot choose between different candidates and hold local representatives accountable. Amalgamation might be a solution for this challenge to democracy since larger jurisdictions need fewer elected officials per voter. Combining data on all Swiss local government mergers in the 21st century with data on local executive elections, this article assesses whether amalgamation reforms indeed increase candidate supply and hence local electoral contestation. Staggered difference-in-differences regressions show that amalgamation increases the number of candidates/seat. The underlying mechanisms seem to go beyond a ``mechanical'' effect that results from a mere expansion of the candidate pool. This study, thus, provides first empirical evidence that local government amalgamation might contribute to mitigate a hidden supply side crisis of electoral democracy at the local level. |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cyrtm_v1 |
| By: | ELI COHEN (Ben Gurion University of the Negev) |
| Abstract: | Wine tourism has become a key driver for both academic research and the wine industry, particularly due to its role in supporting the growth of small wineries and fostering regional development. It attracts new investments, increases employment, and boosts tourism in wine-producing areas. While traditionally centered around winery visits and wine tasting, wine tourism increasingly encompasses broader experiences. Tourists are motivated not only by an interest in wine but also by the desire to engage with local culture, cuisine, and nature.This study explores the features that potential visitors value most in wine tourism experiences. Using the Best-Worst Scaling (BWS) method, we measured the relative importance of different attributes. BWS offers advantages over Likert-type scales by forcing respondents to prioritize features, thus providing clearer insights into visitor preferences.Our results show that beyond wine-related activities, visitors seek experiences such as exploring natural landscapes, purchasing local products, enjoying regional gastronomy, and participating in agrotourism. These findings suggest that wineries and wine regions can benefit from offering more diverse experiences tailored to different tourist segments. From a managerial and marketing perspective, the study provides practical recommendations for enhancing wine tourism strategies and creating more attractive, differentiated offerings. |
| Keywords: | wine tourism, winery, wine region, best-worst |
| JEL: | Z00 Z19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:15516800 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a unified framework for identifying spatial and temporal boundaries of treatment effects in difference-in-differences designs. Starting from fundamental fluid dynamics equations (Navier-Stokes), we derive conditions under which treatment effects decay exponentially in space and time, enabling researchers to calculate explicit boundaries beyond which effects become undetectable. The framework encompasses both linear (pure diffusion) and nonlinear (advection-diffusion with chemical reactions) regimes, with testable scope conditions based on dimensionless numbers from physics (P\'eclet and Reynolds numbers). We demonstrate the framework's diagnostic capability using air pollution from coal-fired power plants. Analyzing 791 ground-based PM$_{2.5}$ monitors and 189, 564 satellite-based NO$_2$ grid cells in the Western United States over 2019-2021, we find striking regional heterogeneity: within 100 km of coal plants, both pollutants show positive spatial decay (PM$_{2.5}$: $\kappa_s = 0.00200$, $d^* = 1, 153$ km; NO$_2$: $\kappa_s = 0.00112$, $d^* = 2, 062$ km), validating the framework. Beyond 100 km, negative decay parameters correctly signal that urban sources dominate and diffusion assumptions fail. Ground-level PM$_{2.5}$ decays approximately twice as fast as satellite column NO$_2$, consistent with atmospheric transport physics. The framework successfully diagnoses its own validity in four of eight analyzed regions, providing researchers with physics-based tools to assess whether their spatial difference-in-differences setting satisfies diffusion assumptions before applying the estimator. Our results demonstrate that rigorous boundary detection requires both theoretical derivation from first principles and empirical validation of underlying physical assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-Differences, Spatial Spillovers, Treatment Effect Heterogeneity, Navier-Stokes Equations, Atmospheric Dispersion, Boundary Detection |
| JEL: | C21 C23 Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126716 |
| By: | Tugba Gunes; Isil Erol |
| Abstract: | Property transactions in Turkey are subject to a transaction fee that is calculated based on transaction prices declared by sellers and buyers. Declared prices cannot be lower than property tax values which are far lower than the actual or observed market prices. Because declared prices are strategically reported at around tax values of the properties for cash purchases or at an adjusted price in accordance with the mortgage loan amount in the case of mortgaged sales, reliable transaction price data in the official records are not available. If a property is sold within five years after the purchase date and the price difference is higher than a certain exemption amount, remaining amount of capital gain is subject to capital gains tax. In this study, we explore the impact of capital gains tax on the re-selling behavior of property owners. We use a novel transaction level repeat sales dataset provided from the land registry agency. Our empirical analyses show that the number of transactions and declared purchase prices are significantly influenced by the capital gains tax threshold. We compare the transactions right before and after the 5-year-holding-period mark and find that transaction price changes between repeated sales are significantly lower in the pre-period than those in the post-mark. The results indicate that mortgage sales relative to cash sales are more likely to occur immediately after the five-year holding period threshold. This suggests that sellers are more confident in selling their properties without the concern of incurring a capital gains tax liability, likely due to the high loan amounts involved. |
| Keywords: | Capital Gains tax; Holding Period; residential property market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_159 |
| By: | Walk, Marten |
| Abstract: | How do asset prices shape the wealth distribution? Motivated by the different trajectories of European housing markets after the financial crisis, this thesis examines how capital gains, particularly in housing, influence wealth inequality in Europe. Drawing on the ECB’s new Distributional Wealth Accounts, the analysis uses panel regressions that exploit cross-country variation in housing markets. The results show that asset prices have first-order consequences on the wealth distribution, driven by differences in portfolio composition across population groups. Rising house prices benefit the middle 40% and especially the bottom 50%, while a booming stock market concentrates gains in the top 10%. These effects are robust across specifications but vary substantially across countries, reflecting institutional and portfolio differences. Simulations of alternative price scenarios show that housing booms can slow concentration. However, no country saw house prices grow fast enough to reverse the upward trend in top wealth shares in Europe. Together, the results provide detailed insights into the distributional effects of asset prices in Europe, with implications for both monetary and housing policy. |
| Keywords: | Wealth Inequality, Asset Prices, Distributional Wealth Accounts, Europe, House Prices |
| JEL: | D14 D63 E21 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126040 |
| By: | Jonas Rau; Maria Günther; Andreas Pfnür |
| Abstract: | German town centres are facing considerable challenges following structural changes in society. As people's preferences and needs change, the once predominantly monofunctional city centres can no longer meet such needs and are becoming more and more perceived as obsolete. As a result, town centres struggle to maintain the loyalty of their visitors, who increasingly turn to alternatives that can fulfil their demands. Therefore, decision-makers in many town centres have tried different approaches, such as hosting temporary pop-up events and implementing pedestrian-friendly infrastructure, to increase attractiveness. Until now, this decision-making has often been based on intuition rather than empirical evidence, without a deeper understanding of the quantitative dynamics between visitor loyalty and its city centre. Furthermore, the role of the visual appearance of a city centre remains unclear. This study addresses this shortcoming using an adapted American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) model in the new framework of town centres. The focus is on causal relationships between the utilisation of city centres and the loyalty of city centre visitors. In doing so, the study aims to provide stakeholders, such as municipalities and real estate owners, with data-driven recommendations for action. These recommendations are intended to support the people-centred and future-oriented development of city centres. For this purpose, a dataset consisting of N = 238 was utilised. The study shows the importance of customer satisfaction and the aesthetic and visual appeal of town centres. Moreover, the study highlights the complex dynamic that contributes to customer satisfaction and, finally, customer loyalty. |
| Keywords: | Aesthetic Evaluation of Town Centres; Empirical Customer Satisfaction Models; Town Centre Revitalisation; Visitor Loyalty in Urban Spaces |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_88 |
| By: | Tomasz Orpiszewski; Laura Archer-Svoboda; Mark Thompson; David Lunsford; Caterina Croci |
| Abstract: | Under the current climate change scenarios, Switzerland's real estate sector faces important exposures to natural hazards, with floods alone causing over CHF 15 billion in damages over the past 50 years. Despite the rising urgency of climate risk management, research on Swiss Real Estate Funds (REFs) and their flood risk exposure remains limited. This study fills the gap by analyzing flood risks—specifically river and pluvial flooding—across REFs using two unique datasets: detailed portfolio holdings of over 9, 000 properties and granular climate-oriented flood risk data. Findings show that while less than 6% of properties are at flood risk, exposure is unevenly distributed. Large funds maintain fairly low flood risk, but several smaller funds exhibit significant vulnerabilities. Swiss REFs maintain the bulk of their properties of Cantons like Zürich and Vaud investments with minimal flood exposure, while holdings in Genève, Basel, and Ticino face heightened risks. Regression analysis reveals that funds investing near their headquarters benefit from local knowledge, reducing flood risks, while geographically diversified portfolios outperform concentrated ones in mitigating climate exposure. These insights underscore the need for Swiss REFs to prioritize climate risk assessment in their long-term strategies. Proactive diversification, integration of climate scenarios and consideration of anti-flood mechanisms will be crucial to building resilient portfolios in an era of escalating climate challenges. |
| Keywords: | Climate Risks; Diversification; flood risk; Real Estate Funds |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_122 |
| By: | Ioramashvili, Carolin |
| Abstract: | The successful implementation of industrial strategies relies on high-quality evidence of interventions that work. Yet, there is a lack of such evidence, particularly for local and regional economic policy. While policymakers at all levels of government express a strong desire for better evidence, limited research has addressed the question of why more resources are not devoted to producing better evidence. This article identifies barriers to more and better evaluation of industrial and economic policy more generally. This is a pertinent question in the UK context as a new industrial strategy is launched, while local government is undergoing a reorganisation with new powers for economic policy being devolved. The article makes two contributions. First, it argues that evaluation and evidence should be treated as a public good that will be underprovided without deliberate investment. Second, the lack of a strong ecosystem for evaluation at the local level is identified, which could act as a flexible resource to improve evaluation capacity and capability and support the use of existing evidence. Implications for the design of incentives and institutions for evaluation are considered. |
| Keywords: | evaluation; devolution; industrial policy; institutions; local economic growth policy; local government |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130096 |
| By: | Alfonso Diez-Minguela (Universitat de València, Valencia (Spain)); Francisco J. Goerlich (Universitat de València & IVIE, Valencia (Spain)); Rafael González Val (Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain)); Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat (Universitat de València, Valencia (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | This study presents a novel methodology for constructing a historical population grid, ESGRID1887, that sheds light on the spatial distribution of Spain’s population in the late nineteenth century. The grid is compared, at a granular and temporally consistent scale, with population settlement patterns revealed by the most recent population grid produced by EUROSTAT (GEOSTAT2021). ESGRID1887 uses data from the Nomenclátor of Spain (1887) and cadastral records to distribute the population reported in the 1887 Spanish Census across 1 km² cells. Unlike analyses based on administrative units (municipalities), this fine-grained approach highlights the historical significance of dispersed settlement across large areas of the Atlantic, Cantabrian, and Mediterranean peripheries, as well as in several mountainous regions of the peninsula in 1887. Moreover, the comparison with GEOSTAT2021 reveals that although the populated area increased from 21.6% of the territory in 1887 to 26.4% in 2021, this modest expansion resulted from two opposing dynamics: sprawl and depopulation. One third of the cells occupied in 2021 were uninhabited in 1887, while one third of those inhabited in 1887 are now uninhabited. The new evidence presented in this article thus reveals an additional dimension of the long-term depopulation process affecting a substantial part of Spain—the emptying of the territory—which has not previously been examined from a historical perspective. |
| Keywords: | Digital Humanities, Historical Grids, Depopulation, Geography, Spain |
| JEL: | J11 N33 N01 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2505 |
| By: | Jonathan Wood; Anupam Nanda; Sotirios Thanos |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel dynamic longitudinal Poisson model that can handle complex temporal shifts and identify the effects of ethno-demographic, socio-economic and connectivity/accessibility attributes in location patterns of bars and restaurants.Two key gaps are observed in the extant literature -not accounting sufficiently for any complex temporal patterns and for the urban or rural area characteristics. We fill these gaps by using a unique dataset of two carefully selected UK city-regions - 626 small areas in Greater Manchester and 658 small areas in Nottingham over a 17-year period (2002-2019). These study areas offer varying scales of urbanity and rurality that play fundamental role in location choice decisions. The results highlight complex temporal patterns as reflected by the non-linearities in time fixed-effects and show contrasting increases in restaurants (39.80% and 36.08% increases in Manchester and Nottingham) compared to reductions in bars (22.69% and 23.13% reductions in Manchester and Nottingham). We only find bars to be positively affected by increased retail activity (by 0.34% in Manchester and 0.49% in Nottingham). While broad ethnic categories, such as Black and Asian, show effects in our models, the recognition of ethnic sub-groups substantially changes the results and offer more nuanced understanding. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic longitudinal Poisson regression; On-premises alcohol outlet; Socioeconomic deprivation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_89 |
| By: | Zainab Iftikhar; Anna Zaharieva |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effects of low-skill immigration on small businesses, wages, and employment in Germany. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous workers, cross-skill matching, and endogenous entry into entrepreneurship. The model is calibrated using data from the German SocioEconomic Panel (SOEP). Quantitative analysis shows that low-skill immigration increases the welfare of high-skill workers. It also leads to the endogenous expansion of immigrant entrepreneurial activities, generating positive spillovers for all demographic groups except native entrepreneurs. However, the gains are outweighed by the losses in welfare of low-skill workers, and overall, there is a marginal loss of per-worker welfare to the economy. Policies restricting immigrant entrepreneurship relax competition for native small businesses but reduce welfare for all other worker groups. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, small business, self-employment, search frictions, immigration |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J61 J64 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_714 |
| By: | Masahiro ENDOH; Toshiyuki MATSUURA; Akira SASAHARA |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effect of import shocks from China on population movement within and across regional employment zones in Japan based on Japanese census data from the 1990s to the 2010s. This effect was estimated for eight population groups defined by combinations of age and gender: the total population, and those aged 15–29, 30–44, and 45–59 by age group, and males and females by gender. Increases in imports from China had no significant effect on population movements within commuting zones or on net outflows from zones, but they significantly reduced both inflows to and outflows from zones, suggesting that import shocks tend to suppress inter-regional migration. The effect was observed across all age groups and for both men and women. Estimates indicate that regional differences in import shocks lowered both inflow and outflow rates. The magnitude was generally moderate compared with the actual ratios, but inflow migration of young women was relatively strongly suppressed. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25108 |
| By: | Yoann Morin (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Martin Regnaud (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Marie-Laure Breuillé (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Julie Le Gallo (CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of the rent control regulation implemented by the city of Paris in July 2019 on the Parisian rental market. We take advantage of the large amount of real-time data available on the SeLoger platform containing the ads published by professional realtors. Using a database of 559, 300 observations from January 2018 to June 2023, we apply a difference-in-differences model, where control units are located in eight major French cities in which the rental market is particularly tense but not regulated during the analysis period. We show that the rent control policy decreased rents by 3.7% to 4.2% in Paris on average. Yet, the effect of the policy is heterogeneous depending on dwelling characteristics, with a stronger effect on small apartments. We also estimate the upper bound of the effectiveness of the policy and show that if every dwelling respected the rent control, rents would have decreased by 8.2% to 8.7%. We confirm the effectiveness of the rent control policy by extending the analysis to five additional regulated cities using a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, which reinforces the external validity of our findings. Finally, we examine whether the policy affected the supply of rental housing, proxied by the number of new listings published by agencies. We find no evidence of a decline in supply attributable to the rent control |
| Keywords: | Rent control Rental market Paris Real-estate market platform Difference |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05315123 |
| By: | Maria Chondrokouki; Andrianos Tsekrekos |
| Abstract: | The neoclassical investment model predicts that only systematic risk affects the rate of investment through developed asset price, whereas the option-based investment model predicts that total investment risk directly affects investment behaviour. This study empirically tests the total uncertainty-investment relationship using aggregate construction data on residential real estate from fifteen European countries. We specify and empirically estimate a structural model of asset-market equilibrium and, after controlling for built-asset price, construction cost, expected rent, interest rate levels, expected growth of real rents and systematic risk, we find evidence of an independent role for total uncertainty in the supply of residential real estate. In particular, panel estimation shows that total uncertainty is significantly negatively related to the rate of investment across all sample countries included in our study. This finding appears robust to two alternative measures that we use to proxy aggregate investment. Supplementary analysis suggests that our main finding is unaffected by the global recession of 2008-2009 and the recent Covid pandemic. We conclude that our empirical results provide support for the option-based model and, thus, for the notion that the ability to delay decisions in the face of uncertainty and irreversibility are important aspects of investment in real estate. |
| Keywords: | Investment; Residential Real Estate; Uncertainty |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_46 |
| By: | Rustam Romaniuc (Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Odile Séré de Lanauze (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, BIT - Behavioral Insights Team France); Lisette Ibanez (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Sébastien Roussel (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature studying the effect of green nudges on the behavior of young people, particularly adolescents. We conducted a field experiment involving high school students to assess the effectiveness of a nudging strategy which aimed at motivating them to power off computers when these are not used in the classroom. Our nudging strategy resulted in a significant reduction in computer power in the treated high school compared to a control high school. We discuss the relevance of our work for research on young people's pro-environmental behavior as well as the implications in terms of policy-making. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05363638 |
| By: | Candelario, Sherri |
| Abstract: | Kate’s House Foundation operates and owns seven accredited MAT homes serving justice-involved adults referred by the Drug Court and the Department of Corrections (DOC). The program emphasizes trauma-informed care, no rapid-exit policies, and prohibits resident “vote-outs.” Because all participants were justice-involved at entry, the realistic alternative to remaining in housing was the possibility of losing drug court benefits or returning to jail or prison for relapse or non-compliance. Within this high-risk context, the longer lengths of stay observed in this cohort represent extended periods in the community in lieu of incarceration, underscoring the preventive impact of a non-punitive, stabilization-first recovery housing model. We evaluated early exits, length of stay (LOS), completion/active status, employment change, and age patterns using assessments at ~0, 45, and 90 days (REC-CAP). 10, 12. Mean LOS was ~141 days (median ~97), and among residents engaged beyond 30 days the mean LOS was 181 days. Using LOS ≥60 days as a priori “engagement success, ” retention was strongest among older adults, while residents <25 showed the weakest ≥60-day retention. 5, 6 REC-CAP Social Capital & Meaningful Activities scores skewed high (94% scoring 4–5 on a 5-point scale across 394 responses), indicating substantial perceived connection and purposeful activity during residence. Uniquely, this large single-system cohort spans seven houses run by one foundation under consistent policies, with data collected by two trained staff—reducing site-level variability common in multi-operator studies. In this cohort, Drug Court participants achieved retention patterns similar to DOC participants, supporting the role of non-punitive, MAT-compatible housing in maintaining community placement across justice-system categories. |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y2kqn_v1 |
| By: | Grazyna Wiejak-Roy; Hein Huiskes |
| Abstract: | Despite several attempts, the UK’s residential development market is in a persistent crisis characterised by undersupply for housing and rising house prices. Market consolidation over the past two decades has reduced competition, reinforced market entry barriers, and contributed to higher housing prices and fewer affordable options. This study examines the financial positions of the UK’s largest housebuilders (n = 75) that combined have a market share exceeding 50%. By looking at data from 2004 to 2023 we are testing for the Pecking Order Theory and Trade-Off Theory. In doing so, we apply panel regression to investigate the relationships between growth, firm size, asset tangibility, profitability, non-debt tax shields, and effective tax rate with short-term debt, long-term debt, total debt, and shareholders’ funds. We find that smaller and high-growth firms more frequently use debt financing to minimize costs while larger firms more often use equity financing. Tangible assets are positively associated with long-term debt and equity, while profitability is negatively associated with short-term debt and significant non-debt tax shields are negatively associated with debt levels. We conclude that the capital structure practices of UK housebuilders mostly align with the Pecking Order Theory. However, the models' moderate explanatory power suggests other factors at play which need future research focus. |
| Keywords: | Capital Structure; housing; Pecking order theory; trade-off theory |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_13 |
| By: | Bernhard Funk |
| Abstract: | The world´s capitals tend to attract office tenants and office building owners from the public sector. This includes government entities, but also state and local authorities. Furthermore, law firms, consultants, lobby groups and similar tenants associated with the public sector complement the demand pool for office space in capitals. Authors including Cyril Northcote Parkinson and Laurence J. Peter early-on developed a pessimistic view on bureaucracies, arguing for instance that the number of workers tend to grow in public organizations, but that this figure does not hinge on the real amount of work. Current US federals politics picks up on similar lines of thought led by the current government of United States of America entering the stage of implementation for downsizing government entities. Examples can be found manifold, with by example the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform organizing a hearing in February 2025 on the topic “Rightsizing Government“. These shifts cannot be ommitted when analysing regional patterns for office demand in capitals. The dependence of the office market in Washington DC on public sector tenants and owners is however, not new. This paper looks at findings from the Washington DC office market, with the following key questions in focus: Are there similarities notwithstanding the different political environments that can be applied to the German Berlin office market? Which factors should be taken into account drawing on experiences and trends in the Washington DC office market when looking at office demand trajectories in Berlin? |
| Keywords: | Office Markets; Real Estate Investment; Real Estate Research; US Real Estate Markets |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_252 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | Spatial econometrics lacks principled methods for measuring minimum wage spillovers. Existing approaches assume arbitrary functional forms without theoretical justification, preventing researchers from answering basic questions: How far do effects reach? Through which channels? At what speed? This paper derives spatial treatment effects from first principles using Navier-Stokes equations. Three theoretical predictions emerge and are validated empirically. First, treatment boundaries exhibit self-similar scaling, growing proportional to the square root of elapsed time as predicted by diffusion theory (estimated exponent: 0.500, standard error: 0.001). Second, spatial weights follow Modified Bessel K-zero functions, the exact Green's function solution to the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. This theoretically-derived specification fits observed spillover patterns substantially better than exponential, Gaussian, or power-law alternatives commonly assumed in applied work (R-squared: 0.99 versus 0.35). Third, network consolidation paradoxically increases rather than dampens wage volatility during stress periods, with consolidation-volatility correlation rising from near-zero to positive 0.0067 following COVID-19. Using 64, 421 county-quarter observations from 2018 to 2023, I estimate characteristic spillover distance of 100 miles with cumulative effects reaching 0.44 log points over four quarters. Economic network linkages dominate geographic proximity by factor of eight, demonstrating that institutional connections matter more than physical distance. Spatial decay parameters increased 27 percent during COVID-19 (from 0.0155 to 0.0196), shrinking effective spillover radius from 65 to 51 miles and confirming time-varying dynamics predicted by perturbation theory. The framework provides concrete policy guidance. Regional minimum wage coordination should encompass 100-mile radius under normal conditions, contracting to 65 miles during crises. For Japan's minimum wage reform targeting 1, 500 yen per hour by 2030, spillovers from Tokyo will substantially affect surrounding prefectures within 160 kilometers. Self-similar scaling implies effects reach half of final magnitude within one year but continue expanding indefinitely, requiring multi-year coordination frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Spatial wage spillovers, Self-similar scaling, Network fragility, Modified Bessel functions, Minimum wage policy, Japan |
| JEL: | C21 D85 J31 J38 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126722 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | I develop a continuous functional framework for spatial treatment effects grounded in Navier-Stokes partial differential equations. Rather than discrete treatment parameters, the framework characterizes treatment intensity as continuous functions $\tau(\mathbf{x}, t)$ over space-time, enabling rigorous analysis of boundary evolution, spatial gradients, and cumulative exposure. Empirical validation using 32, 520 U.S. ZIP codes demonstrates exponential spatial decay for healthcare access ($\kappa = 0.002837$ per km, $R^2 = 0.0129$) with detectable boundaries at 37.1 km. The framework successfully diagnoses when scope conditions hold: positive decay parameters validate diffusion assumptions near hospitals, while negative parameters correctly signal urban confounding effects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals 2-13 $\times$ stronger distance effects for elderly populations and substantial education gradients. Model selection strongly favors logarithmic decay over exponential ($\Delta \text{AIC} > 10, 000$), representing a middle ground between exponential and power-law decay. Applications span environmental economics, banking, and healthcare policy. The continuous functional framework provides predictive capability ($d^*(t) = \xi^* \sqrt{t}$), parameter sensitivity ($\partial d^*/\partial \nu$), and diagnostic tests unavailable in traditional difference-in-differences approaches. |
| Keywords: | Spatial treatment effects, continuous functionals, Navier-Stokes equations, healthcare access, spatial boundaries, heterogeneous treatment effects |
| JEL: | C14 C21 C31 I14 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126727 |
| By: | Sotiris; Tsolacos; Tatiana Franus |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we evaluate the performance of various methodologies for forecasting real estate yields. Expected yield changes are a crucial input for valuations and investment strategies. We conduct a comparative study to assess the forecast accuracy of econometric and time series models relative to machine learning algorithms. Our target series include net initial and equivalent yields across key real estate sectors: office, industrial, and retail. The analysis is based on monthly UK data, though the framework can be applied to different contexts, including quarterly data. The econometric and time series models considered include ARMA, ARMAX, stepwise regression, and VAR family models, while the machine learning methods encompass Random Forest, XGBoost, Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Machines. We utilise a comprehensive set of economic, financial, and survey data to predict yield movements and evaluate forecast performance over three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons. While conventional forecast metrics are calculated, our primary focus is on directional forecasting. The findings have significant practical implications. By capturing directional changes, our assessment aids price discovery in real estate markets. Given that private-market real estate data are reported with a lag - even for monthly data - early signals of price movements are valuable for investors and lenders. This study aims to identify the most successful methods to gauge forthcoming yield movements. |
| Keywords: | directional forecasting; econometric models; Machine Learning; property yields |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_269 |
| By: | Moretti, Laura (Central Bank of Ireland); Riva, Luca (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | In a sample of 17 European countries, we find that the adoption of borrower-based measures reduces house price growth, house-price-to-income growth, and growth in household debt over GDP. We do not find significant effects on the homeownership rate. Moreover, our results show that different types of instruments have different effects, with income-based instruments having a stronger impact on reducing the growth rate of household debt, while loan-to-value limits have a stronger impact on house price growth. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:stafin:6/si/25 |
| By: | Salvatore Viola (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Ernest Miguelez (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Rosina Moreno (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Davide Consoli (Universitat Politècnica de València - CSIC-UPV); François Perruchas (Universitat Politècnica de València) |
| Abstract: | One important factor in addressing climate change is the development and deployment of environmental-related, or green, technologies (GT). Environmental-related technologies are distinct, requiring specific conditions to be developed which vary depending on their relative level of technological maturity. Recent studies have focused on the role of migrant inventors in creating these conditions and spurring regional diversification into new technological domains. Regional diversification helps regions avoid lock-in and even escape fossil fuel dependencies. While the contribution of migrants to science and innovation is well documented, less attention has been given to migrants and diversification, especially in the case of GT and along the technological life cycle. In this study, we investigate the role of US-based migrant inventors in regional GT diversification using patent data from the USPTO between the year 1990 and 2012. We find that migrant inventors are positively associated with regional GT diversification, partly as a result of their previous patenting experience as well as the specializations of their countries of origin. With regard to the technological life cycle, while geographically diffused technologies rely on corresponding inventor experience, emergent technological diversification benefits from inventors from specialized countries. These findings highlight the bridging role that migrant inventors in international knowledge transfer and their importance in regional diversification in particular environmental-related technologies. |
| Keywords: | Regional Diversification; Green Technology; Immigration; Technological Life Cycle JEL classification:O33; Q55; J61; R11 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202508 |
| By: | Jan Schmid; He Cheng |
| Abstract: | The increasing complexities of real estate market forecasting, in combination with the accelerated evolution of machine learning (ML) algorithms, necessitates the optimisation of algorithm selection to reduce computational demands and enhance model accuracy. While numerous studies have examined the performance of individual algorithms, a significant research gap remains concerning the impact of dataset characteristics on algorithmic performance within this specific domain. The present study aims to address this research gap by undertaking a systematic meta-learning analysis of 54 real estate forecasting studies conducted between 2001 and 2024. The study explores the relationship between dataset characteristics and algorithm performance, focusing on factors such as dataset size, dimensionality, and variable categories. Two models, a decision tree and a random forest model, were utilised to assess the impact of these characteristics on the accuracy of various algorithm categories, including artificial neural networks (ANNs), ensemble methods, and support vector machines (SVMs).The study's findings suggest that the random forest algorithm, when applied to dataset characteristics, serves as a reliable tool for predicting the best-performing algorithm for a given real estate market forecasting dataset. The model attained an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.98 and an overall accuracy of 88%, underscoring the practical relevance of meta-learning approaches in econometrics and highlighting the potential for further enhancing algorithm selection methodologies in this research domain.This research contributes to the expanding field of automated machine meta-learning by providing a framework for more efficient and accurate real estate market forecasting. |
| Keywords: | algorithm selection; meta-learning; Random forest; real estate forecasting |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_40 |
| By: | Johannes Kochems (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how (local) tax havens function. Using the German municipal business tax setting as a laboratory, I investigate the characteristics and emergence of local tax havens. I demonstrate that local tax havens are situated in close proximity to large agglomeration areas, while firms' profit-to-wage ratios in these jurisdictions are exceptionally high. I document that the amount of local profit shifting is substantial. The empirical results indicate that local profit shifting is of a similar magnitude to recent findings regarding international profit shifting by German multinationals. I deploy synthetic difference-in-differences methods, combined with administrative data sources and standard profit shifting equations, to estimate the amount of profit shifting to local tax havens. Between 2013 and 2019, around 52 billion Euros of corporate profits were shifted to local tax havens. The results are driven by a small number of large firms that offer business and financial services. The direct fiscal cost to non-tax haven municipalities amounts to roughly 7.9 billion Euros, while tax haven municipalities gain around 4.3 billion Euros in tax revenues. I conduct a case study on the emergence of Germany's largest local tax havens. I estimate that between 2012 and 2019, around 20.5 billion was transferred to its jurisdiction. The increase in local tax revenues is used to reduce public debt burdens and finance a high level of public expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Public Finance, Fiscal Federalism, Corporate Taxation, Tax Havens, Profit Shifting |
| JEL: | H25 H26 H32 H71 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:379 |
| By: | Michael Peeters; Maria Fernanda Villalba; Jasmine Zhang; Daan Schraven |
| Abstract: | Purpose - Integrating sustainability considerations into valuation practices is essential for promoting sustainable real estate investments. However, a comprehensive understanding of how sustainability factors impact the value of real estate assets is required. This study addresses the growing importance of renewable energy and the underutilized potential of rooftops by proposing an innovative framework for the valuation of roofs when used for renewable energy production.Design/methodology/approach - This study uses the concepts of residual value analysis and Highest and Best Use methodology, adapting them to create a new framework for rooftop valuation.Findings - The value of a roof can be determined based on their energy generation capability, where the conditions for enhanced energy harvesting potential distinct a higher value to the host asset. This removes the hurdle for investors to use rooftops for renewable energy investments.Originality - The novelty of this study lies in using the Highest and Best Use methodology in the valuation of roofs. To the best of our knowledge, no explicit valuation of roofs has been done in the context of renewable energy production.Practical implications- This study contributes to innovative valuation methodologies by incorporating sustainable measures. Social implications - Social implications include the evaluation of third-party investments in renewable energy on rooftops. This could lead to increased investments and higher renewable energy production, thereby lowering energy costs and enhancing the energy supply's reliability. |
| Keywords: | Highest and Best Use; Real Options; Renewable Energy; valuation of roof |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_24 |
| By: | Don; S. Bowen; McKay Price; Luke Stein; Ke Yang |
| Abstract: | We conduct the first study exploring the application of large language models (LLMs) to mortgage underwriting, using an audit study design that combines real loan application data with experimentally manipulated race and credit scores. First, we find that LLMs systematically recommend more denials and higher interest rates for Black applicants than otherwise-identical white applicants. These racial disparities are largest for lower-credit-score applicants and riskier loans, and exist across multiple generations of LLMs developed by three leading firms. Second, we identify a straightforward and effective mitigation strategy: Simply instructing the LLM to make unbiased decisions. Doing so eliminates the racial approval gap and significantly reduces interest rate disparities. Finally, we show LLM recommendations correlate strongly with realworld lender decisions, even without fine-tuning, specialized training, macroeconomic context, or extensive application data. Our findings have important implications for financial firms exploring LLM applications and regulators overseeing AI’s rapidly expanding role in finance. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Fair Lending; Mortgage Underwriting; Racial Bias |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_75 |
| By: | Kikuchi, Tatsuru |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dual-channel framework for analyzing technology diffusion that integrates spatial decay mechanisms from continuous functional analysis with network contagion dynamics from spectral graph theory. Building on \citet{kikuchi2024navier} and \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical}, which establish Navier-Stokes-based approaches to spatial treatment effects and financial network fragility, we demonstrate that technology adoption spreads simultaneously through both geographic proximity and supply chain connections. Using comprehensive data on six technologies adopted by 500 firms over 2010-2023, we document three key findings. First, technology adoption exhibits strong exponential geographic decay with spatial decay rate $\kappa \approx 0.043$ per kilometer, implying a spatial boundary of $d^* \approx 69$ kilometers beyond which spillovers are negligible (R-squared = 0.99). Second, supply chain connections create technology-specific networks whose algebraic connectivity ($\lambda_2$) increases 300-380 percent as adoption spreads, with correlation between $\lambda_2$ and adoption exceeding 0.95 across all technologies. Third, traditional difference-in-differences methods that ignore spatial and network structure exhibit 61 percent bias in estimated treatment effects. An event study around COVID-19 reveals that network fragility increased 24.5 percent post-shock, amplifying treatment effects through supply chain spillovers in a manner analogous to financial contagion documented in \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical}. Our framework provides micro-foundations for technology policy: interventions have spatial reach of 69 kilometers and network amplification factor of 10.8, requiring coordinated geographic and supply chain targeting for optimal effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Technology diffusion, Supply chain networks, Spatial treatment effects, Network contagion, Navier-Stokes dynamics, Spectral graph theory |
| JEL: | C31 D85 L14 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126724 |
| By: | Omokolade Akinsomi; Emmanuel Abakah |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the time-varying effect of global economic factors on office yields in Europe. Specifically, the study uses office yields of 16 European cities across 8 European countries from Q1 2007 to Q2 2024. Using Quantile Granger Causality Tests and Rolling Window Wavelet Correlation (RWWC) as estimation techniques, this paper specifically investigates the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Financial Stress Index (FSI), Global Risk Aversion Index (GRAI), and Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on office yields in Europe. The findings reveal that financial hubs like Central London, Frankfurt, and Central Paris are particularly sensitive to global risks, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty, while cities like Lyon and Dublin are influenced more by local market dynamics. The analysis shows that these relationships are not uniform, with stronger impacts observed during times of economic stress and in the upper ranges of yield distributions. Short-term changes often reflect immediate reactions to financial shocks, while long-term trends highlight deeper, systemic risks. These insights emphasize the importance of understanding how global conditions and local market characteristics interact, providing valuable guidance for investors and policymakers navigating the complexities of European real estate markets. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk; global risk aversion; Policy uncertainty, ; prime office yields |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_225 |
| By: | Roberto Basile (Università Sapienza di Roma - Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici ed Economici); Francesca Centofanti (Università di Roma Tor Vergata); Francesca Licari (Italian National Institute of Statistics) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the migration trajectories of young individuals born in Southern Italy who moved to the North between 2011 and 2014. Using longitudinal microdata and discretetime competing risks models, we examine whether these internal migrants are more likely to return to the South or emigrate abroad. Results reveal a strong educational gradient: highly educated individuals are significantly more likely to use the North as a springboard for international migration, while less-educated individuals tend to return home. These findings shed light on the dynamic interplay between internal and international mobility, and the enduring challenges of brain drain in the Mezzogiorno. |
| Keywords: | Migration trajectories, Mezzogiorno of Italy, Competing Risk Models |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00073 |
| By: | Anton Barabasch; Kamila Cygan-Rehm; Andreas Leibing |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-run consequences of a later school entry for personality traits. For identification, we exploit the statutory cutoff rules for school enrollment in Germany within a regression discontinuity design. We find that relatively older school starters have persistently lower levels of neuroticism in adulthood. This effect is entirely driven by women, which has important implications for gender gaps in the labor market, as women typically score significantly higher on neuroticism at all stages of life, which puts them at a disadvantage. Our results suggest that family decisions regarding compliance with enrollment cutoffs may have lasting implications for gender gaps in socio-emotional skills. |
| Keywords: | school starting age, personality, socio-emotional skills, education |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 D19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12273 |
| By: | Susanne Geissler; Paraskevas Koukaras; Elena Taxeri; Andreas Androutsopoulos |
| Abstract: | The property sector is faced with numerous regulations, some of which are based on the European Green Deal. At the same time, the data economy is not stopping at the property industry, leading to the adaptation and reorientation of processes and methods. However, this disruptive environment is also creating new opportunities, like for example assessing the 'smart readiness” of buildings. The digital economy is a key enabler of smart-ready buildings, driving energy efficiency, cost savings and sustainability. As smart technologies evolve, buildings will play an increasingly active role in energy optimisation, carbon reduction and the transition to a greener economy. The Smart Readiness Indicator (SRI) assesses a building's potential to contribute to energy efficiency in building operations, while providing a healthy and comfortable indoor environment, as well as potential grid flexibility. This paper explains the SRI, a simplified approach to determine the indicator in a cost-effective manner, and how it can be used to meet requirements in sustainable finance, ESG reporting, and green building certification. It is based on work carried out in the EU-funded easySRI project. The paper is intended for the following Themes: Theme G: Sustainable Real Estate Theme H: New Technology and Data in Real Estate |
| Keywords: | Digitalisation; easySRI; smart readiness indicator; Sustainable Building |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_224 |
| By: | Ceren Kaneral; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of increasing passenger numbers on airport rental income and total revenue. The growing complexity of investigating this relationship has made it challenging to accurately forecast trends in the aviation industry. Previous research has primarily relied on the assumption that revenue increases in tandem with passenger traffic. To conduct a preliminary analysis, monthly data from 2015 to 2018 was collected for two major Turkish airports: Atatürk Airport in Istanbul (AHL) and Esenboa Airport in Ankara (ESB). A summary of the statistical findings reveals that AHL's revenue is approximately 6.8 times higher than ESB's, and its rental income is about 7 times greater. This stark disparity underscores the significant economic advantage of higher passenger volumes, as evidenced by AHL generating substantially higher revenue and rental income per passenger compared to ESB. By comparing these two airports, the study aims to test the cointegration and causality between passenger numbers and airport revenue, as well as rental income, while highlighting the differences in their capacities and operational methodologies. The findings of this research will provide valuable insights and serve as a guide for airport management, real estate professionals, and other stakeholders in the aviation industry, facilitating informed decision-making and strategic planning. |
| Keywords: | Air Traffic; Overall Airport Revenue; Rental Income; Turkish Airports |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_202 |
| By: | Bogdan Popovici (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | Urban competitiveness in Europe and all over the world is stronger than ever. The Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) industry is one of the most recent strategic tools which helps the economic development of the cities and their branding. This study analyses competitiveness of Prague, Bucharest, and Rome to attract international business and more European Union funds using the MICE industry. The three cities have different approaches to use MICE industry that reflect their European and world branding, historical, cultural and economic contexts. The study evaluates three key points: MICE infrastructure and capacity, urban branding strategies, and the absorption of EU funds to improve competitiveness. Data collected from EU reports, policy analyses and national and city studies are confronted with competitiveness and branding theories to identify development trends. Prague combines particular heritage with modern MICE facilities and demonstrates consistent know how in utilising EU funds. Bucharest offers a low cost skilled workforce and underlines innovation but lacks brand visibility and has difficulties with fund absorption. Rome has a global prestige and cultural heritage which brings a lot of advantages but faces structural challenges: high costs, infrastructure age, economic structure. The study concludes that the three key points are vital for competitiveness. Recommendations are: stronger public private cooperation, integrated branding policies, and cross city collaboration in Europe for attracting premium MICE. |
| Keywords: | MICE Industry, Urban Competitiveness, City Branding, European Cohesion Policy, Central Eastern Europe, Comparative Urban Studies |
| JEL: | F00 M38 O57 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15316954 |
| By: | Steffen Henzel; Christian Holzner |
| Abstract: | We conduct a field experiment to analyze whether online exercise solution videos are a valuable substitute for a detailed explanation in class. Using a Difference-in-Difference identification strategy with student time-fixed effects, we find that videos on-demand reduce students' performance significantly. Splitting our sample along class attendance shows that the results are driven by those students, who attended class. Given our detailed data on students' learning and repetition behavior we can show that only one out of four students in the treatment group watched the videos while four out of five students in the control group attended the respective class. Although we observe the typical procrastination behavior among students as the exam approaches we find no evidence that procrastination in the experiment questions compared with all other exercise questions is higher for students in the treatment group compared to the control group. |
| Keywords: | hybird or blended learning, online videos, traditional face-to-face teaching, students' learning and repetition behavior |
| JEL: | A23 H52 H75 I23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12269 |
| By: | Alan Gardner |
| Abstract: | The UK investable real estate sector is undergoing fundamental change brought by broader economic/demographic shifts and the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI). As the market changes, the professional role is changing. For asset managers , this means more frequent rent reviews, alternative uses, addressing ESG compliance and becoming more proactive in anticipating tenant requirements including the likes of ‘defensive’ capital expenditure to mitigate depreciation and obsolescence risk. However you define the role, the industry requires multi-skilled and talented people to enter the profession. The challenge for the industry and academia, to equip new entrants to the profession, in the context of the wider impact on working life, positive and negative, posed by greater exploitation of artificial intelligence (AI) is formidable. This paper considered these major questions. It used a multi-faceted qualitative research approach generating primary data through semi-structured interviews, proving the opportunity for deep reflection across a range of senior real estate industry professionals to identify some of the fundamental changes in the profession and discuss the skills for new entrants to the market that would match opportunities being created. That was followed by a detailed exploration of these findings with senior academic real estate professionals considering about how current and evolving practice, content and assessment, can be adapted to match, more effectively, the requirements of the profession with current teaching practice. The paper goes beyond universities and reflects on some of the challenges the sector faces in terms of achieving greater diversity. |
| Keywords: | Assessment; changing roles; skill requirements; Teaching Methods |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_16 |
| By: | Alain Coen; Aya Nasreddine; Aurelie Desfleurs; Yasmine Essafi Zouari |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the role of real estate risks in the dynamics of financial sector stock returns for a sample of 14 countries: Asia and Oceania (Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore), Europe (Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) and North America (Canada and the USA). Real estate risk measures are drawn from the FTSE/EPRA NAREIT indexes. The period includes the last twenty years running from February 2005 to December 2024 on a daily and a monthly basis. The wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) methodology is implemented to highlight the impact of domestic and U.S. real estate risks. The WQC allows us to deal with time-varying characteristics of time series and to capture tail dependence. Besides, it has the advantage of dissolving the correlation structure between returns across different timescales. Our results report that the response to real estate risk pressures varies significantly depending on the financial sector, the investment horizon, and the origin of the real estate risk. The dynamic dimensions of the domestic and U.S. real estate risks during a long period, marked by significant crises including the Global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, are heterogeneous in the international financial sector, with potential implications for investment managers and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Financial sector; Real Estate Risk; REITs; Wavelet quantile correlation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_184 |
| By: | Bogdan Popovici (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | Today world context generates continuous urban development , accelerates economic competitiveness and intensifies city branding. Capital cities in Central and Eastern Europe must position themselves as national growth engines and as internationally recognisable brands competing within the European urban hierarchy. We analyse Budapest and Bucharest, two capitals of two very interlinked neighbour countries, former communist cities with different trajectories in competitiveness and branding after the 1990s.The paper analyses the structural and dynamic factors which influence the performance of the two cities starting from theories of urban competitiveness. Indicators like GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, labor productivity, human capital, innovation ecosystems, infrastructure and governance draw the competitive advantages and vulnerabilities. Budapest is a city with deep historical integration into Western markets, institutional continuity and strong branding as a Central European cultural and innovation hub. Bucharest grows after EU accession and has a cost attractiveness for investors mixed with a fast developing IT sector. Bucharest struggles with lack of cohesion of governance , infrastructure deficits and a weak city branding.The analysis highlights that branding is not only promotion, it is a strategic component of competitiveness and it influences perceptions of the investors, residents and international institutions. The study finds out that sustainable competitiveness for these two cities requires a shift from cost advantages to innovation growth which must be supported by governance reform, human capital investment and coherent branding strategies. |
| Keywords: | City branding, economic competitiveness, urban development, Budapest, Bucharest |
| JEL: | F02 F63 O10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15416980 |
| By: | Kamila Cygan-Rehm; Matthias Westphal |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates and extends the evidence on the lifetime effects of school starting age on earnings by Fredriksson and Öckert (2014) for Sweden. Using German data for individuals born between 1945 and 1965, we examine a more rigid system of ability tracking in secondary education, a potential driver of long-term effects. We confirm negligible effects of later school entry for men and positive effects for women. These gender differences arise despite similar effects on educational attainment. By unfolding the gender gaps over the lifecycle, assessing fertility decisions, and maternal employment around the first birth, we show that childbirth postponement and increased labor market attachment after the first birth seem to be plausible mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | school starting age, lifetime effects, education, gender gap |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12274 |
| By: | Aisha Baisalova |
| Abstract: | Differences in excise taxes across states incentivize consumers to make cross-border purchases. In this study, we investigate the “border effect†phenomenon, which refers to the impact of cross-state purchasing behaviors on the excise tax sensitivity of consumption. We analytically formulate the “border effect†as a linear function that decreases with distance from the closest lower-tax state. We reasonably assume that the “border effect†reaches a maximum at the border with the lower-tax state and then linearly decreases with distance from the border, eventually reaching zero after a certain cutoff distance. We estimate the parameters of the “border effect†function employing a threshold regression model with location and time fixed effects. As a robustness check, we also run a segmented regression using separate tax sensitivity estimates for a range of distance intervals. We verify that the estimates from segmented regression align with the linear pattern derived from the threshold model. Further, we enhance the “border effect†function by incorporating a difference between the home state tax and the closest lower-tax state tax as an additional factor, and then compare the estimation results for the two specifications. Beyond geographic variation, we also examine how the tax sensitivity of cigarette consumption differs across demographic groups. Our analysis shows that tax sensitivity varies by income level: high-income consumers are the least responsive to excise tax increases, while low-income consumers are the most responsive, with middle-income consumers falling in between. All income groups are influenced by the “border effect†, but for high-income consumers this effect is only present at distances up to 60 kilometers from the lower-tax state. Our analysis based on employment status indicates that both employed and non-employed consumers display a similar shape in the “border effect†function; however, non-employed consumers show significantly higher tax sensitivity than employed consumers. |
| Keywords: | excise taxation, cigarettes, cross-state purchasing, tax avoidance, border effects |
| JEL: | D12 H26 H71 L66 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp803 |
| By: | Harun Tanrivermis; Monsurat Ayojimi Salami; Yeim Tanrvermi |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the contributions of PropTech to addressing fundamental challenges faced by the real estate sector, including issues of transparency, liquidity, customer experience, and the reduction of transaction costs. A qualitative research approach will be employed, using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist, and the findings from previous studies will be reviewed from the 1980s to the present. The study duration was informed by reports emphasising that the theorisation of PropTech was initiated and facilitated for globalisation by the Advanced Producer Services (APS) sector. The review will be organised thematically according to the fundamental challenges in real estate. The findings for each theme will be critically evaluated, enabling the identification of potential research gaps. Expected outcomes include increased liquidity in real estate, mitigation of transparency issues, enhancement of customer experience, and reduction of transaction costs by eliminating intermediaries. However, should the findings contradict anticipated outcomes, the circumstances surrounding these unexpected results may be explained to justify such findings. |
| Keywords: | customer experience and Turkish PropTech industry; Digitalization and PropTech; Quantitative research; Transparency issue and liquidity |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_287 |
| By: | Maria Fernanda Villalba; Michael Peeters; Hilde Remoy; Daan Schraven |
| Abstract: | The extreme weather events of recent years have highlighted the vulnerability of real estate assets to climate risks and the urgent need to adapt the built environment to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. Institutional investors, as key stakeholders in commercial real estate, play a critical role in this effort. However, little is known about their decision-making behaviours and the processes that drive or hinder investments for climate adaptation measures in existing assets. This paper investigates the decision-making behaviours of institutional real estate investors through the lens of institutional theory, offering a framework to analyse both the rational and the cognitive tendencies that influence climate adaptation investment decisions. Using a qualitative research approach, the study draws on semi-structured interviews with senior managers across the different management levels of institutional real estate investors in the Netherlands. The findings aim to identify and classify the underlying tendencies shaping these decisions into normative, coercive, and mimetic pressures. By doing so, this study will provide valuable insights for industry practitioners to enhance their decision-making practices towards climate adaptation, offer guidance to policymakers on where regulations, policies, and incentives are needed, and contribute to the existing body of literature on real estate investor behaviour in the context of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate adaptation; institutional investor; investment behaviour; investment decision-making |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_132 |
| By: | Van Wolleghem, Pierre; Soares, Marta Bruno; Lamb, Gavin; Puga-Gonzalez, Ivan |
| Abstract: | Climate change adaptation (CCA) increasingly relies on collaborative efforts to generate and circulate actionable knowledge. Among these, knowledge networks (KNs) have emerged as key infrastructures for fostering transnational cooperation, enabling mutual learning, and supporting local implementation. While their theoretical value is widely acknowledged, the empirical landscape of adaptation-related knowledge networks in Europe remains poorly understood. This article offers the first systematic mapping of KNs working on CCA in Europe, with a particular focus on Transnational Municipal Networks (TMNs)—a prominent subset composed primarily of local authorities. We identify and compare 32 knowledge networks across key dimensions including structure, governance, membership, funding models, and core activities. The analysis is grounded in two original datasets: a network-level dataset comprising 32 adaptation-related KNs and a membership-level dataset encompassing over 17, 000 entries, systematically collected and geo-referenced. These resources provide an unprecedented empirical basis for understanding how climate knowledge is shared, institutionalised, and mobilised across Europe. Our findings reveal a diverse and uneven landscape, with significant variation in access thresholds, support mechanisms, and geographic representation. TMNs, in particular, differ in the type and intensity of support they provide—ranging from technical expertise and financial assistance to symbolic capital and peer learning opportunities. The article contributes to ongoing debates about multilevel climate governance and the role of networks in enhancing local adaptation capacity. |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vtshj_v1 |
| By: | Aisha Baisalova |
| Abstract: | The availability of lower-taxed goods in neighboring states incentivizes consumers to make cross-border purchases. Using transaction-level data from the NielsenIQ Consumer Panel, we analyze how proximity to a lower-tax state affects the pass-through of tax to cigarette prices. We analytically formulate tax pass-through to prices as the “true†passthrough rate attenuated by the “border effect†. The “border effect†refers to the impact of cross-state purchasing behavior on the extent to which excise taxes are passed on to cigarette prices. We model the border effect as an exponential function that decreases with distance from the lower-tax state, reaching the highest value at the border itself and diminishing to zero at large distances. We estimate the parameters of the “border effect†function by employing an exponential regression model with location, time, and UPC fixed effects. The results of the robustness check, where we estimate a segmented regression using separate tax pass-through estimates for a range of distance intervals, support the linear pattern observed in the exponential model. We also extend the model to account for the tax differential between the home state and the nearest lower-tax state and perform a comparative analysis of the two model specifications. In addition to geographic variation, we also analyze how the pass-through of cigarette taxes varies across different demographic groups. High-income households face the highest tax pass-through and are largely unaffected by border proximity, while middle-income households are affected by the “border effect†only when the distance from the lower-tax state does not exceed 90 kilometers. Low-income households remain sensitive to “border effects†at greater distances, though their responsiveness declines beyond 200 kilometers. Moreover, consumers who are not engaged in paid employment exhibit significantly lower pass-through, suggesting greater scope for tax avoidance through flexible shopping behavior. |
| Keywords: | excise taxation, cigarettes, tax pass-through rate, cross-state purchasing, tax avoidance, border effects |
| JEL: | D12 H26 H71 L66 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp804 |
| By: | Shehani Gamage; Abdul-Rasheed Amidu; Deborah Levy |
| Abstract: | With a growing emphasis on sustainability and corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the property sector, managers are increasingly challenged by the integration of financial performance with social impact. This study employs interviews with managers from listed property trusts in New Zealand to investigate their strategies for embedding social value into commercial property initiatives. The findings reveal that managers acknowledge the advantages of socially responsible practices such as heightened tenant satisfaction, improved community relations, and financial benefits, including enhanced marketability and reduced vacancy rates. The thematic analysis identifies essential strategies, including community engagement, sustainable building practices, and transparency in CSR reporting. Interviews also revealed the complexities involved in balancing the interests of various stakeholders, such as tenants, investors, and the broader community. Managers stress the importance of aligning properties with societal needs to cultivate long-term loyalty and trust, thereby enhancing reputational capital. This study contributes to the understanding of how social value is operationalised within New Zealand's listed property trust sector, offering recommendations for enhancing social value initiatives. These insights aim to inform stakeholders about the critical role of social value in fostering sustainable property management. |
| Keywords: | CSR; Property Trusts; social value; Tenant Satisfaction |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_296 |
| By: | Manh-Duc Doan (Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN)) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment–the Vietnam-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA)–I investigate the impact of trade liberalization on children's human capital investment in Vietnam. Using regional variation in export tariff uncertainty due to the BTA, I find that children in provinces more exposed to tariff reductions were more likely to engage in work rather than attend school, and this effect persisted for 20 years after the BTA. Additionally, the effects were more pronounced among boys, older children, rural children, and those with less-educated parents. These negative effects are driven by the increase in job opportunities, i.e., the child labor incidence, and the wage premium in the higher exposure provinces. The findings indicate that trade liberalization has increased the opportunity cost of education. These results remain robust across various alternative estimations. |
| Keywords: | trade agreement, tariff reduction, schooling, child labor, Vietnam |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J24 O12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0125 |