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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Laura Gabrielli; Elena Dorato |
| Abstract: | Over the past three decades, Italy has experienced a significant expansion of university campuses. While this growth has boosted local economies, it has also intensified the demand for rental housing in regions unprepared for such pressures. Currently, 40% of Italian students reside off-campus, a figure increasing annually by 2.5%. However, only 10.5% of these students have access to dedicated student housing. As a result, students are pushed into the private rental market, where rents have risen by more than 5%, driven by higher mortgage costs, reduced housing availability, and the growing prevalence of Airbnb-style short-term rentals. In Ferrara, the University accommodates over 30, 000 students, with 79% living off-campus as of 2023—a figure that previously peaked at over 85%. Student housing availability remains critically low, with only a few hundred beds available (283 managed by ER.go and 230 by ACER). A 2023 survey conducted by the Union of University Students (EDU) highlights severe housing challenges, revealing that 68% of students struggle to find accommodations due to room shortages and high costs. Additionally, 60% face significant financial difficulties in covering housing expenses, leading nearly half of the students to resort to informal or illicit rental arrangements. This study seeks to assist the University of Ferrara (UniFe) by providing analytical insights, methodological support, and actionable solutions for developing effective student housing policies. These policies aim to balance students' educational rights with the profit expectations of private sector stakeholders. The study proposes an evaluation model to determine the optimal number of student beds required while ensuring fair compensation for private investors. Tackling the student housing crisis is vital for fostering urban sustainability, often involving the revitalization of underused properties and their integration with city services. Effective solutions demand a nuanced understanding of local contexts and the adoption of best practices. Coordinated efforts among local authorities, universities, and real estate stakeholders, supported by robust public-private partnerships, are essential. By employing flexible value/return frameworks that align with market conditions, cities can incorporate circular economy principles into their housing strategies, thereby advancing sustainable urban development. |
| Keywords: | Public-Private Partnership (PPP); Real Estate Market; student housing; Sustainable Urban Regeneration |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_39 |
| By: | Daniel Oeter; Tobias Just; Marcelo Cajias |
| Abstract: | Hedonic modeling is the primary method for constructing property price indices. While data limitations and advancements in modeling techniques have been extensively discussed in the literature, the implications of spatial granularity in hedonic price index construction have received less attention. Using micro geographic indexing as proposed by Ahlfeldt (2022) we construct property price indices for a number of geographical target units, exhibiting different spatial granularity levels. The analyzed target units are city level, districts, planning areas, statistical blocks and different hexagon grid specifications. We employ this methodology on a comprehensive dataset of asking price data for the city of Berlin. To identify how the choice of geographical granularity affects the outcomes of the estimated property price indices we compare model accuracy across the underlying models. By doing so, we are able to find the optimal trade-off between spatial granularity and model accuracy. Our findings indicate that the selection of a finer granularity level for index construction is particularly useful as the analysis of micro locations provide deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics of real estate markets and influencing externalities. Additionally, our analysis suggests that, at least for Berlin, the optimal geographical aggregation is the planning area level (comprising of a mean population density of 7, 500 inhabitants). At this spatial granularity level, property price indices exhibit robust characteristics, reasonable model accuracy measures and mainly plausible index values. These results are of significant relevance to investors, financial institutions, and planning authorities, as they offer valuable guidance for constructing optimal benchmarks that support informed decision-making and strategic planning. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets; Micro Geographic Indexing; Property Price Index; spatial analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_43 |
| By: | Keyu Xie; Wang Chongyu; Yumou Wang |
| Abstract: | The hukou system overhaul started in 2014 has reduced barriers to household mobility in China. The overhaul has increased labor mobility from rural to urban areas and across cities, which results in differential impacts on different cities' urban housing prices (""housing prices""). The differences in the urban population control and talent attraction policies in different cities amplify the differential impact. This study investigates the impact of policy implementation in different cities on housing prices. In particular, the study aims to examine the differential impacts on housing prices in mega and non-mega cities. The former has stringent control on the urban population even after the overhaul, while the barriers to household mobility in the latter are significantly reduced. The household movement after the overhaul is also affected by competition for talent in cities. The study conjectures that the hukou system overhaul has positive housing prices due to the growth in the urban population in the urban area. The effect is expected to be faster and stronger in mega cities despite the stringent control in these cities due to more job and business opportunities and the ability of these cities to attract high-income and wealthy households. For the non-mega cities, the impact of the strategy on housing prices is expected to be weaker than those in mega cities since these non-mega cities are less attractive in terms of job and business opportunities. The effects of the hukou system overhaul in these cities are primarily the result of rural-to-urban migration. Therefore, within non-mage cities, an increase in housing demand is anticipated to result from rural-to-urban migration. The impact of these migration on housing prices is likely to be much bigger in mega-cities due to their stringent control of the urban population and the policy of attracting high-income and wealthy talents, most of which are from urban areas in other cities rather than from rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Housing Prices; Policy; population mobility; Urban |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_258 |
| By: | Hannah Salzberger; Tobias Just |
| Abstract: | The future of office buildings is undergoing a major reassessment as remote working is persistently as well as widely used and cost-benefit analysis reshapes its spatial dynamics. Offices are evolving into spaces for creativity and collaboration, with solitary tasks increasingly completed remotely. While productivity, cost savings and reduced distractions are key benefits, travel time remains the primary driver for working from home. Despite below-average leasing activity in Germany’s top seven cities, the office market is showing signs of stabilizing, with top rents rising. In contrast, office vacancy rates in the US continue to surge, although some cities, such as New York, are experiencing rising property prices and renewed popularity. These trends are influenced by urban structures as well as differences in residential/commercial separation and amenity mix. This research constructs a framework to identify optimal office locations that minimize aggregate travel costs, considering different work modes. First, an analytical model examines commuting costs to central business districts (CBDs) versus peripheral areas, assuming a monocentric city with a denser population near the CBD. Adding satellite offices and amenities evaluates how they affect the attractiveness of centrality. Two working arrangements are examined: team-dependent tasks and independent tasks. Simulations test different team sizes to determine the optimal office location. First, a circular city model is used. Then, in order to minimize total times for different team sizes, real office and residential data is incorporated, with travel times calculated for each office. The methodology uses OpenStreetMap and a KDTree to link residential and office addresses to network nodes, with Dijkstra’s algorithm calculating shortest paths. First, it measures 15- ans well as 30-minute accessibility on foot, by car, or by public transport. Second, it aggregates travel times for randomly selected teams (2-5 people) over 100.000 iterations, highlighting the most frequently selected optimal office locations based on minimum travel time. The initial analysis focuses on Berlin, expanding to Frankfurt before comparing it to New York and Los Angeles to explore the effects of sprawl and centrality. Overall, the results identify the most accessible office locations and explore how urban structures influence accessibility, providing insights into optimal office locations under different working modes. This study contributes to the discourse on the development of office space, focusing on commuting costs and the spatial needs of collaborative and individual work. |
| Keywords: | Office location; Real Travel Time; Team Size; Work-from-home |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_49 |
| By: | Zhenyu Su; Paloma Taltavull de La Paz |
| Abstract: | Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the real estate system's reform and the market's development have undergone several pivotal phases. These include the planned welfare housing allocation system before the reform and opening-up, the comprehensive commercialization of housing, the establishment of a housing security system, and the creation of a dual system of renting and purchasing. Following the implementation of monetary housing distribution in 1998, the real estate industry emerged as one of the pillars of China's national economy, addressing the housing needs of a significant portion of the population. However, with the rapid economic growth and increasing urbanization, the marketization of the housing system has introduced numerous new contradictions and issues that demand urgent resolution. The investment attributes of commercial housing have been excessively magnified, leading to a swift surge in residential prices and spawning a series of social and economic challenges, such as housing affordability. As the disparity in housing resource allocation widens, the gap between the rich and poor in society has also progressively expanded, with the real estate bubble becoming increasingly apparent. At the end of 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference first introduced the concept of "housing is for living, not for speculation, " followed by policies aimed at controlling house prices to prevent continuous increases. Post-pandemic, China faces a new wave of economic challenges with persistently weak domestic demand. Over the past year, the Chinese real estate market has experienced unprecedented stagnation. Despite the government's measures to stimulate housing demand, tangible results have yet to be achieved. This paper primarily employs a data regression model to deeply analyze the dual failure of government and market in developing China's real estate market, elucidate the mechanisms behind the formation of the real estate bubble, and explore how to prevent systemic financial risks. |
| Keywords: | China; housing market; New Regulations; Systemeic Risk |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_265 |
| By: | Mohammad Mohammadi; Erwin Heurkens |
| Abstract: | The increasing complexity of urban spaces has blurred traditional boundaries between public and private realms, creating both opportunities and challenges for real estate developers and managers, as well as other urban stakeholders. While urban policies often mandate private developments to incorporate public spaces (amenities) like ground floor plazas, setbacks, and frontcourts, these spaces frequently face criticism for being exclusionary or underutilized. However, their potential remains largely unexploited, presenting an opportunity to reimagine how they can meaningfully serve both private interests and the public good. Rather than viewing these spaces as regulatory burdens, they can be strategically activated to enhance urban vitality, social inclusion and real estate value. They offer place-specific amenities and features that fully public spaces like streets and parks do not offer as social spaces. This research examines how the interplay between privatization of public spaces and publicization of private spaces can create opportunities for mutual benefit, using Privately Owned Public Spaces (POPSs) as a lens to understand how thoughtfully managed hybrid spaces can foster inclusive environments that benefit both private owners and public users. Through an evidence-based analysis of diverse building-space typologies across Australia and the Netherlands, focusing on POPSs, this study examines how different design and management approaches can transform mandatory (policy-made) public spaces into socially vibrant places. The research reveals that developments with more mixed and blurred boundaries between private and public realms achieve higher activity diversity and social interaction, demonstrating how sustainable integration can ensure both public and private benefits and also create more inclusive urban environments. The adaptability of these spaces during the COVID-19 pandemic has further demonstrated their potential to enhance urban resilience while serving evolving city needs. This research contributes practical insights for real estate managers and developers, as well as urban planners and policymakers, offering strategies to transform mandatory public space requirements into opportunities for social innovation. These findings are particularly relevant as cities deal with densification and the increasing need for quality, accessible public spaces within private developments while seeking to meet broader sustainability goals. |
| Keywords: | POPS; Privatization; Public-private space synergy; social sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_117 |
| By: | Isil Erol; Ezgi Doru |
| Abstract: | Following the 2008/09 Great Financial Crisis—characterized by the collapse of the housing market and waves of forced evictions across the Global North—the viability of home ownership ‘for all’ has come under critical scrutiny, both materially and ideologically. On the one hand, the liberalizing credit markets introduced to push homeownership rates further upward have reached their limits; on the other hand, the ideological framing of home ownership as the cornerstone of household economic security over the life course has been critically undermined, revealing its structural contradictions. The political project of promoting homeownership at the expense of other tenures has created an alarming housing crisis, as private renting has become the fastest-growing tenure globally, coupled with increasing unaffordability in a highly unregulated rental markets. Since the late 2000s, rental housing prices have been on the rise, increasing by an average of 1.5 times across OECD countries, while Turkey ranks first, with rental costs surging elevenfold between 2015 and 2024. Furthermore, in the past thirteen years Turkey has experienced the fastest real house price increase among OECD countries where the real price index increased from 83.7 in 2010 to 196.7 in 2023 – with a 135% rise. Due to stubburnly high housing inflation, homeownership rate in the country has decreased 5 percentage points over the past decade, from 61% in 2012 & 2013 to 56% in 2023. Widely discussed in the academic literature, Turkey's housing crisis was primarily driven by a state-facilitated credit boom in the non-financial corporate sector—particularly in construction and real estate companies—unlike the household debt-driven crises commonly observed in Global North countries. Turkey’s high inflation has squeezed the mortgage market as the share of residential mortgages in total consumer credits declined to 31% in 2023 from a peak of 49% in mid-2000s. As a result, both the share of renter households and the share of tenants who pay reduced or free rents (among renter households) significantly increased. A substantial body of critical research has examined the contradictions of financialized homeownership policies, which remain relevant as it is still the most institutionally and financially supported tenure in many parts of the world. Yet, the contemporary housing affordability crisis cannot be fully understood without placing rental housing at the core of political economy analyses. With the aim of addressing this gap in the literature, our research paper explores Turkey’s rental housing crisis as a novel phenomenon in the country’s urban history. It places particular emphasis on the history of the state’s exclusionary policies toward rental housing as a legitimate tenure, the changing character of Turkey’s rental housing stock, and the structural reasons behind rental price increases that surpass inflation and wage growth. This analysis is based on a combination of archival research, including parliamentary documents, historical records, and newspaper archives related to housing, as well as national and international statistical data on rental markets, inflation, and wage growth. |
| Keywords: | affordability crisis; rental housing crisis; Turkish housing market; urban housing affordability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_125 |
| By: | Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Housing association fees are an important factor in determining condominium prices. Despite their importance, it remains uncertain how much these costs are reflected in sale prices. We examine how deviations from expected monthly fees affect apartment prices in Stockholm. The data include more than 80, 000 transactions from 2017, 2021 and 2023. We apply a two-step method. First, we model expected fees based on age, size, and location. Then we used the residuals in a hedonic price model with spatial controls. Higher-than-expected fees reduce sale prices. On average, each additional 1, 000 SEK in monthly residual cost reduces the price by 2–3%. The elasticity remains stable over time but weakens in 2023. Our spatial analysis confirms stronger capitalisation in central areas compared to peripheral zones, and quantile regressions reveal small variation across the price spectrum. The effect does not appear driven by omitted variables or spatial autocorrelation. Our results help inform valuation and oversight in cooperative housing. |
| Keywords: | Housing cooperatives; Capitalisation; Monthly fee; Hedonic pricing; Housing finance; Spatial variation; Stockholm |
| JEL: | C21 G11 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2025_013 |
| By: | Matthew Pollock; Pat McAllister |
| Abstract: | Research on the structure of the commercial real estate development sector remains limited, despite its crucial role in shaping urban landscapes. Commercial real estate development differs markedly from large-scale residential development in several key aspects. It typically involves the decentralized production of distinct, customised properties, relying on complex networks of suppliers and partners. Value creation typically occurs through inter-organisational collaboration rather than within single, vertically integrated firms. This decentralised nature has led to commercial real estate development in the UK being perceived as less consolidated than its residential counterpart, with deeper ties to specific local contexts. The sector exhibits a unique duality: while physical assets are spatially fixed and customised, they are created within temporary, project-based environments. This characteristic has prompted researchers to view commercial real estate development markets primarily as local phenomena, with local development firms gaining significant advantages from local knowledge and political connections, as highlighted by Wood (2006), Charney (2007), and Henneberry and Parris (2014). However, this local-centric view is incomplete, as evidenced by significant transnational development activities. While existing research has typically focused on ‘lonely projects’ or development firms, this paper offers an alternative perspective. Using a relatively large UK dataset of new office developments from 2007-2024, it examines the industry structure of the office development sector. The study analyses data from CoStar covering new builds and major renovations in core office submarkets across eight major cities: London, Manchester, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Birmingham, Cardiff, Leeds, and Newcastle. In order to better understand the suppliers, identified developers have been classified into distinct categories: UK private companies, international private companies, listed companies/REITs, investment management companies, and private equity/alternative asset management firms. This research aims to illuminate the sector's structure, assess the relative importance of local versus non-local office space providers, and analyse operational geographical patterns. |
| Keywords: | Commercial development; Geography of property development; Industry structure |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_47 |
| By: | Constantin Tielkes |
| Abstract: | Since the foundational work of Alonso, Muth and Mills, Urban Economists have viewed cities as monocentric entities centered around a Central Business District (CBD). As it is costly to travel from the periphery to the Center, prices are naturally lower in the periphery to compensate. While quite intuitive, the monocentric city model has often been scrutinized, as cities in reality are often polycentric and take a variety of shapes and forms. Economists have therefore been investigating if urban gradients actually exist as postulated by theory. Lately, there has also been a lot of interest in how urban gradients evolve over time. In the light of the rise of online retail and working from home in the last decade, are urban centers losing their appeal? We argue that a main problem in this literature has been the insufficient definition of what actually constitutes the center. We therefore use a novel approach to define the CBD. Using the universe of registered German businesses, we define the urban center via density thresholds akin and then investigate the price gradients for the entirety of all 1.108 cities in Germany. In our analysis we find that there is a large heterogeneity of German cities On average, urban centers are 11 % more expensive than the rest of the city. However, among cities with more than one million inhabitants, the gradient is 21 %, while 27 % of German cities even exhibit negative urban gradients. Over the last 14 years, gradients have decreased in only a few selected cities. Overall, they have been increasing. We find that a significant share of the price premium comes from the fact that apartments in the CBD are well connected to jobs and other destinations within the city. Once accounting for the connection to transport infrastructure, the urban gradients decline considerably but remain significant in many cities. This suggests that it is not as much urbanity but centrality that makes city centers more expensive. Our main contribution to the literature is a novel way of defining the CBD. In the theoretical literature, the CBD is usually defined as a point in the center of the city. In almost all studies, the empirical literature just adopts this definition. However, in the reality cities have often developed quite differently. In Germany, the destruction of cities in the second world war and 40 years of Socialism and centralized planning have also left a mark on cities. We therefore construct CBDs based on the actual density of commercial establishments. Among those establishments are retail, private and public services, restaurants and bars, hotels and cultural institutions. The dataset originates from Nexiga GmbH and contains over 8 million observations. For each city we determine the point with the maximum density of commercial establishments. We then define areas that achieve at least 90 % of this density as the commercial center and areas that feature between 60 and 90 % of the density as the residential center. About one third of apartments in German cities are thus defined to be in the center. Our methodology is able to handle the polycentricity problem that has plagued the literature for a long time. |
| Keywords: | Gentrification; Monocentric city model; Urban Dynamics; Urban Flight |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_108 |
| By: | Daniel Oeter; Kim-Ole Schwilp; Tobias Just |
| Abstract: | In the past, investors and financial institutions often viewed mixed use properties critically, as these properties place higher demands on the assessment of the opportunity-risk profile and management than monofunctional properties. For some time now, a shift in the general perception of mixed use real estate seems to have occurred among investors and financiers, and this shift was aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic, as many investors want their real estate portfolios to be stable and crisis-proof in the long term. At this point, mixed-use properties can offer advantages over monofunctionally used properties, by providing increased resilience regarding use-specific market cycles. This study adds to the understanding of this changing investor perceptions by examining the changing dynamics in commercial real estate transactions: In a combinatorial design we analyze two comprehensive datasets, including a total of around 2, 200 commercial property transactions between 2013 and the first half of 2024 in Berlin and Frankfurt am Main (Germany). We measure the degree of mixed-use within commercial buildings by constructing fragmentation indices for the transacted properties in both cities. Our study provides insights on the temporal and spatial development in the commercial real estate market and whether there is a turning point in property transactions towards a higher degree of properties with a more diversified usage, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. We further assess the impact of diversity in usage on the property values by estimating hedonic generalized additive regression models (GAM) to identify potential risk premiums. To ensure the robustness of our results we apply a tailored iterative multi-layer feature selection and robustness check procedure. We find that indeed mixed-use properties have been transacted increasingly and we can identify a small but statistically significant market premium compared to single-use assets in both cities. Finally, we find that city typologies and market conditions impact the dynamics of mixed use real estate transactions. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; mixed use; Real Estate Investment; spatial analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_44 |
| By: | Chiara Mazzarella; Michael Peeters; Daniele Cannatella; Hilde Remoy |
| Abstract: | The short-term reuse of vacant real estate has demonstrated to be able to generate multiple benefits (Bishop, 2015; Madanipour, 2017; Oswalt et al., 2012; Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung Berlin, 2007), and being a quick solution to prevent abandonment risks, providing opportunities to access low-cost space. Research has demonstrated that short-term non-profit projects have the potential to drive innovation and generate social value (Mangialardo & Micelli, 2017; Pinard, 2020; Saleh, 2022). In fact, temporary initiatives can establish transient communities, test new land-use models, and inform real estate transformations (Lepik, 2012). Mostly, creative, artistic, and informal occupations (Andres, 2011; Honeck, 2017; McArdle, 2022; Shaw, 2005; Vivant, 2022) gained attention over the last 25 years, because they have demonstrated capacities for placemaking (Camerin, 2024; Hernandez-Santin et al., 2020; Karachalis, 2021) and urban regeneration (Darchen & Simon, 2022; Martin et al., 2019). For these and other reasons, temporary use projects have been increasingly integrated in urban studies (Chang, 2021) and in urban planning (Lehtovuori & Ruoppila, 2012), despite that the seduction of short-term solutions can hide unfair dynamics (Ferreri, 2015). In this context, Temporary Uses (TU) have been observed critically, considering issues as gentrification risks (Assiter, 2022), benefit distribution (Ferreri, 2020; Mens et al., 2023; Vivant, 2022), negotiations among actors (Zhang, 2018), and outcomes in co-production (Jaspers & Steen, 2019). However, we still don’t have models to measure the economic impact of real estate TU in their urban contexts. Thus, we ask: 1) What are the economic impacts that the social value of a TU produces on urban context? 2) What factors describing urban changes and TU of vacant buildings correlate? And, consequently, 3) how does TU social value contribute to urban dynamics? To address this gap, this study aims at defining and test a methodological framework to measure the economic impacts generated by the social value of temporary uses on the urban context, with a focus on some non-profit initiatives1. The objective is to understand how social value generates effects and impacts on the urban context (street or neighbourhood) improving the place quality, considering both space (urban context) and effects (observing its changes over the years). A mixed method analysis is applied to a set of case studies first at the urban scale and then at the real estate scale. We consider multiple cases of temporary use in the Region of Brussels (Occupation Temporaire OT), that have been mapped and monitored by temporary.brussels. First, we conduct an urban analysis of the neighbourhood place quality (Carmona, 2019) to observe the characteristics and the trends of main socio-economic indicators, land use functions, presence of services and amenities, and ongoing transformations in the area together with local policies. Then, we will assess the impact of each temporary use case measuring a set of quanti-qualitative indicators with data from direct observations, project reports, and interviews2. The TU assessment framework has been developed based on literature review and qualitative analysis of cases in the Netherlands, in Belgium and in France. Finally, we’ll carry out a correlation analysis applying the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) (Fotheringham et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2016; Wu et al., 2019) in GIS (running R packages). Findings from this research contribute to the ongoing discourse on temporary urbanism by discussing how temporary uses support not only communities but also long-term urban development. The proposed framework for defining, measuring, and analysing temporary use provides insights for scholars, policymakers and urban planners interested in leveraging these initiatives considering a fair resource distribution for sustainable and inclusive urban regeneration. Andres, L. (2011). Alternative Initiatives, Cultural Intermediaries and Urban Regeneration: The Case of La Friche (Marseille). European Planning Studies, 19(5), 795–811. https:; doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2011.561037 Assiter, B. (2022). From dancefloors to tables: Socially distanced clubbing, temporary urbanism, and the gentrification of London’s nightlife. Annals of Leisure Research, 1–7. https:; doi.org/10.1080/11745398.2022.2027252 Bishop, P. (2015). From the Subversive to the Serious: Temporary Urbanism as a Positive Force. Architectural Design, 85(3), 136–141. https:; doi.org/10.1002/ad.1913 Camerin, F. (2024). Former military barracks as places for informal placemaking in Italy. An inventory for new insights. Journal of Urbanism: International Research on Placemaking and Urban Sustainability, 17(2), 190–213. https:; doi.org/10.1080/17549175.2024.2327588 Carmona, M. (2019). Place value: Place quality and its impact on health, social, economic and environmental outcomes. Journal of Urban Design, 24(1), 1–48. https:; doi.org/10.1080/13574809.2018.1472523 Chang, R. A. (2021). How do scholars communicate the ‘temporary turn’ in urban studies? A socio-semiotic framework. Urban Planning, 6(1), 133–145. Scopus. https:; doi.org/10.17645/up.v6i1.3613 Darchen, S., & Simon, G. (2022). ‘Transitory urbanism’ for the creative industries in a top-down regeneration process (Nantes, France). European Planning Studies, 30(10), 2084–2101. Scopus. https:; doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2021.2024149 Ferreri, M. (2020). Learning from temporary use and the making of on-demand communities in London’s Olympic “fringes”. Urban Geography, 41(3), 409–427. https:; doi.org/10.1080/02723638.2019.1679527 Fotheringham, A. S., Crespo, R., & Yao, J. (2015). Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR): Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression. Geographical Analysis, 47(4), 431–452. https:; doi.org/10.1111/gean.12071 Hernandez-Santin, C., Hes, D., Beer, T., & Lo, L. (2020). Regenerative Placemaking: Creating a New Model for Place Development by Bringing Together Regenerative and Placemaking Processes. In R. Roggema (Ed.), Designing Sustainable Cities (pp. 53–68). Springer International Publishing. https:; doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54686-1_4 Honeck, T. (2017). From squatters to creatives. An innovation perspective on temporary use in planning. Planning Theory and Practice, 18(2), 268–287. Scopus. https:; doi.org/10.1080/14649357.2017.1303536 Jaspers, S., & Steen, T. (2019). The sustainability of outcomes in temporary co-production. International Journal of Public Sector Management, 33(1), 62–77. https:; doi.org/10.1108/IJPSM-05-2019-0124 Karachalis, N. (2021). Temporary Use as a Participatory Placemaking Tool to Support Cultural Initiatives and Its Connection to City Marketing Strategies—The Case of Athens. Sustainability, 13(4), 1652. https:; doi.org/10.3390/su13041652 Lehtovuori, P., & Ruoppila, S. (2012). Temporary uses as means of experimental urban planning. SAJ - Serbian Architectural Journal, 4(1), 29–54. https:; doi.org/10.5937/SAJ1201029L Liu, J., Yang, Y., Xu, S., Zhao, Y., Wang, Y., & Zhang, F. (2016). A Geographically Temporal Weighted Regression Approach with Travel Distance for House Price Estimation. Entropy, 18(8), 303. https:; doi.org/10.3390/e18080303 Madanipour, A. (2017). Cities in Time: Temporary Urbanism and the Future of the City (p. 198). Scopus. https:; www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85190349333&partnerID=40&md5=92cf099dd880a72a26ce7d812d2867de Mangialardo, A., & Micelli, E. (2017). Simulation Models to Evaluate the Value Creation of the Grass-Roots Participation in the Enhancement of Public Real-Estate Assets with Evidence from Italy. Buildings, 7(4), 100. https:; doi.org/10.3390/buildings7040100 Martin, M., Deas, I., & Hincks, S. (2019). The Role of Temporary Use in Urban Regeneration: Ordinary and Extraordinary Approaches in Bristol and Liverpool. Planning Practice & Research, 34(5), 537–557. https:; doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2019.1679429 McArdle, R. (2022). ‘Squat City’: Dublin’s temporary autonomous zone. Considering the temporality of autonomous geographies. City, 26(4), 630–645. https:; doi.org/10.1080/13604813.2022.2082149 Mens, J., Van Bueren, E., Vrijhoef, R., & Heurkens, E. (2023). Identifying the merits of bottom-up urban development: Theory-based evaluation using a value map model. 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Collaborative ecosystems connecting people and heritage the journey of Miss Miyagi, a positive impact real estate developer in Belgium. City, Culture and Society, 29, 100447. https:; doi.org/10.1016/j.ccs.2022.100447 Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung Berlin. (2007). Urban Pioneers. Temporary Use and Urban Development in Berlin. jovis. https:; www.naibooksellers.nl/urban-pioneers-temporary-use-and-urban-development-in-berlin.html?___store=english&___from_store=default Shaw, K. (2005). The Place of Alternative Culture and the Politics of its Protection in Berlin, Amsterdam and Melbourne. Planning Theory & Practice, 6(2), 149–169. https:; doi.org/10.1080/14649350500136830 Vivant, E. (2022). From margins to capital: The integration of spaces of artistic critique within capitalist urbanism. Journal of Urban Affairs, 44(4–5), 490–503. Scopus. https:; doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2020.1811115 Wu, C., Ren, F., Hu, W., & Du, Q. (2019). Multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression: Exploring the spatiotemporal determinants of housing prices. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 33(3), 489–511. https:; doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2018.1545158 Zhang, A. Y. (2018). Thinking temporally when thinking relationally: Temporality in relational place-making. Geoforum, 90, 91–99. https:; doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2018.02.007 |
| Keywords: | Brussels; GTWR; impact assessment; temporary use |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_266 |
| By: | Agnieszka Zalejska-Jonsson; Sara Wilkinson |
| Abstract: | Urbanization has significantly altered land use, reducing natural habitats and exacerbating environmental issues such as increased temperatures, altered water cycles, and poor air quality. The study investigates whether and how buyers perceive greenery in housing developments, the impact of green infrastructure on consumer interest, and the potential financial benefits of investing in sustainable residential designs. The study builds upon research in consumer behavior, urban planning, and real estate economics to explore property buyers’ preferences. The study employed an experimental design embedded within a survey to test the effect of green infrastructure on buyers’ interest. Five courtyard designs with varying levels of greenery were developed in collaboration with landscape architects. These were visualized using 3D modeling techniques and virtual reality tools, allowing participants to explore different courtyard layouts. Respondents were randomly assigned one of the five courtyard scenarios and asked to evaluate its attractiveness and their interest in purchasing an apartment in the development. Data was collected from 922 participants in Sweden and 614 in Australia using structured online surveys. The analysis utilized structural equation modeling (SEM) to assess relationships between courtyard greenery, attractiveness, and purchasing interest. The study concludes that green infrastructure plays a significant role in shaping buyers' perceptions of residential developments. Findings indicate that greener courtyards enhance property attractiveness, social engagement, and environmental benefits, leading to increased willingness to pay. Additionally, study reflects how cultural and environmental contexts shape buyers’ perceptions of green spaces, compering results obtained in Sweden and Australia. The study’s experimental approach provides a novel methodology for evaluating the economic and psychological effects of greenery in residential developments |
| Keywords: | buyers perception; Green Infrastructure; housing; sustainable cities |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_230 |
| By: | Marianna Magagnoli (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Filippo Tassinari (Universitat Pompeu Fabra & BSE & IEB) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal impact of street noise on housing prices. It focuses on a very dense urban environment and its entire soundscape, using granular data on listed flats and street noise. We employ a combination of hedònic price and fixed effects model, exploiting the regular grid shape of the Eixample district, in Barcelona. Our results indicate that doubling the perceived street noise generates an average depreciation of 3.4% on sales and 2% on rents. We show that the lower semi-elasticity with which the rental market adjusts for the negative externality is associated with a higher turnover of tenants in louder streets. Moreover, we collect several pieces of evidence which suggest that the effect is not driven by sorting by neighbors. Lastly, we use our results to perform two costbenefit analyses of policies which help reducing noise. Based on our findings, we formulate policy recommendations and highlight specific interventions that can mitigate the negative impact of urban noise. |
| Keywords: | Cities, housing prices, noise |
| JEL: | R31 R41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-10 |
| By: | Handan Kaplan; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli |
| Abstract: | In response to the global acceleration of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, this study repositions EV charging stations as strategic urban real estate assets rather than mere technical infrastructure. It highlights the untapped potential of charging infrastructure to contribute to sustainable urban mobility, spatial efficiency, and real estate value generation when optimally located. Recognizing current limitations in site selection—often driven by technical feasibility alone—the research proposes a location-based, investment-oriented site selection model that integrates urban planning, spatial accessibility, and economic feasibility into a cohesive decision-support framework. Focusing on Istanbul as a case study, the model operates under a fixed investment budget, aiming to identify optimal locations that maximize usage potential and return on investment (ROI). The analytical framework is grounded in the DIKW (Data–Information–Knowledge–Wisdom) hierarchy and applies a four-stage methodology: data collection, spatial analysis, multi-criteria decision-making (AHP, Fuzzy AHP, SWARA), and portfolio-based evaluation. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to process and visualize key indicators, including population density, transportation networks, land values, and existing charging station locations. The study’s criteria are categorized into urban, economic, and environmental dimensions. While energy infrastructure data were limited, the model is designed to be scalable and adaptable for future data integration. Rooted in location theory, Highest and Best Use (HBU) analysis, and portfolio management principles, the model frames EV charging stations as components of a broader urban investment strategy. Ultimately, the research offers a spatially explicit, data-driven tool for public and private stakeholders, facilitating strategic decision-making in EV infrastructure deployment. The model’s flexible structure allows for adaptation across diverse urban contexts, contributing to both economic and spatial sustainability in EV infrastructure planning. |
| Keywords: | EV Charging Stations; Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MDM); Real Estate Investment; site selection |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_292 |
| By: | Chao Lin |
| Abstract: | The mortgage right of rural real estate (RRE) is one of the legal and important property rights of the peasants, which is prohibited to be mortgaged because of rural housing land institute in China. In reality the financial demand of the peasants is huge in rural area, which need more invest into personal consumption, agriculture upgrading. So the central government starts the pilot reform of mortgage load of rural real estate, which is beneficial to activate the land asset, increase the financing channel, promoting the strategy of rural revitalization. It is found in previous literature that the level of financial literacy of farmers significantly affects the borrowing behavior. However, it is still unclear whether the financial literacy will also significantly affect the mortgage behavior of RRE and what the influencing mechanism is. The paper applies Logit regression model and regulatory effect model to reveal the influence mechanism of farmers' financial literacy on the mortgage loan of RRE based on data from Yongfeng pilot, and finds that: (1) The financial literacy of farmers has a significant positive impact on the participation behavior of RRE mortgage. The higher of the financial literacy of farmers, the more comprehensive the understanding of RRE mortgage, the more likely they are to participate in RRE mortgage; (2) Among the constituent factors of financial literacy, financial attention has the greatest impact on the mortgage, followed by risk identification ability, but the negative effect of financial ability is not significant. (3) The degree of homestead dependence of farmers plays a moderating role. The lower the homestead dependence of farmers, the more positive influence of financial literacy on the participation behavior of mortgage. Because farmers with low homestead dependence have less ""worries"" for mortgage, are more willing to apply for RRE mortgage. (4) Heterogeneity analysis show that the financial literacy has significantly influence on peasants owning urban house, but not for peasants without urban house |
| Keywords: | Financial literacy; Mortgage load; Rural homestead; Rural real estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_126 |
| By: | Gabriele Guaitoli (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | What are the aggregate effects of housing supply-side policies, such as zoning reforms? In structural models, the answer involves characterising the equilibrium housing price function. I show that a housing price function should separately characterise how policies affect: 1) the response of house prices to new demand ("Elasticity Effect''); 2) the cost of satisfying existing housing demand ("Baseline Effect''). While the former can be calibrated to match estimates of price-demand elasticities such as Saiz (2010), the latter requires a separate calibration. However, popular models in Urban Economics and Economic Geography do not separately characterise and calibrate the Baseline and Elasticity Effects, introducing potential biases in the estimation of long-run policy effects. I propose a characterisation that makes such biases explicit, nests most popular characterisations, and allows to separately characterise and estimate the two effects. Calibrating the Baseline Effect to conservative empirical estimates from the literature, I find housing supply policy effects up to one order of magnitude larger than other characterisations applied to the same model. |
| Keywords: | housing supply, structural models, zoning, bias |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2516 |
| By: | Heiko Leonhard; Ralf Laschinger; Wolfgang Schäfers |
| Abstract: | Tokenization is rapidly emerging as a transformative investment vehicle for assets, offering a compelling alternative to traditional asset securitization and equitization. For real estate, open-end funds and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have long provided retail investors with access to real estate cash flows and portfolio diversification alongside stocks and bonds. The tokenization of real estate introduces a novel approach to discretionary, self-custodial fractional ownership and portfolio construction of single properties. Despite its growing adoption, little empirical evidence exists regarding the performance of real estate tokens compared to traditional real estate investments. This study investigates the profitability and performance of real estate tokens at both the investor and market levels, positioning them as a novel investment vehicle within the rapidly evolving blockchain-based financial market. Using a unique dataset of several million wallet-specific blockchain transactions—including primary and secondary market activities as well as rental payments—covering 673 tokenized properties in the U.S. from April 2019 to May 2024, we benchmark real estate token performance against traditional real estate investments. Our findings indicate that real estate tokens deliver competitive returns relative to REITs, while offering the additional benefits of cost-efficient, 24/7 trading and granular exposure to single properties. However, the discretionary nature of real estate token portfolio construction potentially increases clustering risk, which is typically mitigated by investing in pooled real estate vehicles. Given the significant market potential of direct real estate ownership, our results highlight the transformative potential of real estate tokenization in reshaping investment strategies in real estate and asset markets. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing; blockchain; Real Estate Investment Vehicles; real estate tokenization |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_144 |
| By: | David N. Figlio; Umut Özek |
| Abstract: | This study presents the first evidence, to our knowledge, of the effects of the surge in interior immigration apprehensions in 2025 in the United States on student academic performance using detailed student-level administrative records from Florida. We find evidence that immigration enforcement reduced test scores for both U.S.-born and foreign-born Spanish-speaking students while also reducing the likelihood that these students are involved in disciplinary incidents in schools. Both of these effects are more pronounced for students in middle and high schools. |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34452 |
| By: | Andrée De Serres; Hélène Sicotte; Cynthia Aubert |
| Abstract: | Affordability plays a crucial role in combating climate change by influencing households' housing, transportation, and consumption choices, while offering numerous benefits for their health and quality of life. Integrating affordability into urban policies promotes sustainable densification and social diversity, thereby reducing cities’ carbon footprints. However, creating and maintaining affordability over time requires adopting a governance model, management practices, and investment strategies tailored to the needs of future generations. The transformation of housing into a financial asset has exacerbated declining of affordability, urban sprawl, and evictions, fueling real estate speculation with little consideration for tenants beyond their ability to pay. To counter this trend, nonprofit organizations (NPOs) have developed alternative governance and business models that are less affected by market fluctuations, aiming to provide affordable housing while ensuring long-term quality. Supported by public and private partnerships, these NPOs help stabilize prices and combat speculation. In Montreal, for instance, the goal of achieving 20% off-market rental housing by 2050 reflects this ambition. A case study conducted between 2024 and 2025 analyzes three Quebec-based nonprofit organizations — UTILE, Interloge, and Mission Unitaînés — operating more than 3, 100 units in the affordable housing sector in 2024 as developers, owners, and managers of buildings. The objective is to compare their governance models, organizational practices, and innovative business models for developing and managing off-market housing, as well as to document their financing structures based on capital needs at both the company and project portfolio levels. These NPOs face several challenges in effectively addressing the housing crisis while ensuring housing sustainability and quality. The first challenge is building affordability over time, which is achieved with property ownership and also requires rigorous control of capital and operational expenses throughout the entire building's lifecycle to ensure affordable rents for tenants and limit their increase over time without compromising housing quality. Government subsidy programs to support tenant payment capacity are also an important solution to maintain affordability over time and cope with inflation. NPOs therefore include these programs in their business model. The second challenge lies in their reliance on subsidies, making their recognition as credible and legitimate market actors essential to securing financial sustainability. They also face increasing competition from for-profit companies. For some large NPOs, internalizing real estate development expertise and strengthening of internal organization is crucial for accelerating projects and consolidating their social acceptability. Another key issue is strengthening their legitimacy with lenders and investors, which necessitates attracting talent and innovating in financing and development practices. Given the high demand for affordable housing, some NPOs must pool their efforts by forming innovative alliances to share resources and knowledge while increasing their political influence and reducing costs. Finally, managing tenants with specific needs requires partnerships with psychosocial workers and the promotion of suitable housing located near essential services and public transport. This research maps Quebec’s affordable housing ecosystem and explores government definitions of affordability and their implications for NPOs. International case studies could provide inspiration for innovative solutions. Further research is needed to explore other innovative models and to understand how to reconcile housing affordability, quality and sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Business Model; Housing Affordability; Investment Strategies; Non-profit corporate governance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_112 |
| By: | Roumpani, Flora; Wilson, Alan |
| Abstract: | The two-tier Lowry model brings dynamic simulations of population and employment directly into the planning process. By linking regional modelling with neighbourhood design, the framework enables planners to explore how alternative planning scenarios may evolve over time. The upper tier captures regional flows of people, jobs, and services, while the lower tier allocates these to fine-grain zones such as neighbourhoods or parcels. Implemented in CityEngine, the approach allows interactive visualisation and evaluation of multi-scale scenarios. A case study in South Yorkshire (UK) illustrates how regional forecasts can be translated into local design responses, connecting quantitative modelling with 3D spatial planning. |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d4msk_v1 |
| By: | Zeynep Onder; dil Ayberk |
| Abstract: | When house prices increase, the collateral value of bank loans that companies and households can get increases. It is known that collaterals are one of the factors that determine the capital structure of companies (for example, see Rampini and Viswanathan, 2010). In addition, the increase in the value of the collateral will reduce the agency problem between the lenders and the investors. It will cause the investments of the companies to increase (Fougere, Lecat, and Ray, 2019). Although these relations, which are called collateral channels in the literature (Bernanke and Gertler, 1989; Kiyotaki and Moore, 1997), have been shown in developed countries during the periods when house prices rise and fall, there is not much evidence in developing counties, except China (for example, Chen et al., 2015; Deng et al., 2018). However, due to the diversity of the housing market in China and the large number of state-owned enterprises, the evidence from this country may not be generalized to other developing countries. In this study, we aim to contribute to the literature by examining how the capital structure and investments of companies in Turkey change with the change in the real estate values for the period 2010-2022 when real house prices did not change and increased considerably. Several studies have shown that shocks to real estate value have significant effects on employment and investments. For example, Chaney, Sraer, and Thesmar (2012) reported that when collateral values increased by $1 during the period 1993-2007, publicly traded US firms increased their investments by $0.06. Using administrative data, they also show that the effect of collateral on the investment of French companies was greater than that for the US firms. They explained the difference by the fact that French firms are more financially constrained. Similarly, Bahaj, Foulis, and Pinter (2020) estimated that a 1 pound increase in the prices of houses owned by company directors in the UK increased the companies’ investments by 0.03 pounds. Fougere, Lecat, and Ray (2019) reported that the effect of the change in real estate values on firms’ investments depends on their real estate holdings and found that a 10 percent increase in real estate prices causes a 1% decrease in vestment rates of companies with less holdings while it increases investments of companies with highest holdings by 6%. They also stated that the increase in collateral values had a positive effect on total productivity. Since the firms are generally more financially constrained in emerging economies, the effect of the value of real estate is expected to have significant effects on investments. Some studies examine the impact of the changes in real estate values on capital structure. For example, Gan (2007) found that companies that owned real estate were affected by the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan in the 1990s and had difficulty maintaining their relationships with their banks and were able to get fewer bank loans. Campello et al. (2022) showed that after the increase in real estate values, US firms took more debt, but instead of secured debt, they got unsecured debt. Cvijanovic (2014) found that a one standard deviation increase in real estate values caused the company’s debt ratio to increase by 3% because of the decline in borrowing cost or getting loans under more favorable conditions. Similarly, Lin (2016) reported that a one standard deviation increase in the collateral value of companies caused the bank loans-to-total debt ratio to increase by 6%. By investigating the capital structure of companies from several countries, including Hungary, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Turkey, Yesiltas (2015) showed that the capital structures of companies with high collateral value are more affected by the shock in loan-to-value ratio than companies with low collateral value. Among the emerging economies, we are only aware of studies of China. For example, Chen et al. (2015) examined the period 2000-2007 and showed that companies increased their private borrowing with the increase in house prices but the capital structure of the public companies is not affected because they do not have any credit restrictions. Wang, et al. (2017) examined how Chinese companies’ investments were affected by the change in house values in the period 2005-2014. They reported an inverse relationship between house prices and investments in non-public private companies. In Turkey, as in other developing countries, financing options for companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), are quite limited. The financing obtained through bank loans and the collateral channel that is as a result of the increase in real estate prices will be a very important source of financing for the companies. It is expected that the change in house values will have positive effects on both borrowing and investments of companies, especially SMEs in Turkey. The housing and credit markets in Turkey experienced extreme growth rates during the second half of the sample period. According to IMF statistics, real house values increased the most in the world in 2021 in Turkey (26.89%). In the same period, the average increase was 3.75% in developing countries. Although this increase reduces the housing affordability of households, we expect that this increase will have a positive effect on firms’ bank borrowing and level of investments, especially for SMEs that are more likely to be credit-constrained. The major problem in the analysis is the identification. This problem tries to be solved by using housing supply elasticity and the non-developable area ratio at the province level as instrumental variables, following Saiz (2010). Changes in house prices will be analyzed on a provincial basis using REIDIN data and for NUTS2 regions using CBRT data. The hypotheses will be tested separately in periods when house prices increase and when they do not change much. The financial data of the enterprises on a provincial basis are obtained from the Entrepreneur Information System (GBS) database maintained by The Ministry of Industry and Technology. As empirical models, we follow the literature and employ the model developed by Cvijanovic (2014) to investigate how the debt ratios of firms change by the increase in house value and the one developed by Fougere et al. (2019) to examine the effect of the changes in house values on investments of firms. The initial findings indicate that even though the large firms do not significantly change their capital structure or investments, micro and small firms increase their debt ratios and investments with the increase in real estate values in the period 2010-2022. |
| Keywords: | Collateral Channel; Debt Ratio; House Values; Investments |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_273 |
| By: | Vanessa Dietl |
| Abstract: | Brick-and-mortar retail faces significant challenges due to increasing online competition and changing consumer behaviors, leading to 'dying city centers' and 'ghost malls'. Therefore, optimizing retail agglomerations has become crucial for ensuring customer satisfaction and meeting economic return expectations. This is particularly problematic for fragmented ownership retail, as is commonly found in Asia. Unlike European shopping malls, which are usually centrally owned and strategically planned by a single entity, 'strata-titled malls' sell individual retail units to investors early in the planning phase to finance construction. Such decentralized center structures complicate unified strategic management and often lead to misaligned tenant mixes. The neglect of positive spatial externalities from neighboring stores, such as visual connectivity, negatively impacts foot traffic and the mall’s attractiveness. This case study examines the strata-titled Far East Plaza Mall in Singapore to investigate how gradual centralization through strategic acquisitions of individual retail spaces and clustering can mitigate fragmented structures and realize synergy potentials. Using a Spatial Autoregressive Regression (SAR) model and clustering algorithms, 394 resale transactions from 1995 to 2022 are analyzed to uncover spatial correlations and spillover effects. The aim is to illustrate that clustering behavior indicates the consolidation intentions of investors and to evaluate the impact of spatial proximity to other stores on resale activity and prices. The results reveal significant spatial autocorrelation, showing that most resales occurred within clusters. Furthermore, resale prices within the clusters progressively increased over time, demonstrating a stronger growth compared to prices outside, indicating that initial owners recognized consolidation intentions and capitalized on the resulting value creation of their units. The findings further suggest that consolidating ownership improves tenant strategies, visual connectivity, and neighborhood synergies, leading to significant value creation opportunities and enabling faster adjustments to market changes. The study not only provides practical recommendations for asset managers to revitalize underperforming malls in Asia and beyond but also offers globally relevant strategies transferable to decentralized city centers for the sustainable improvement of brick-and-mortar retail. |
| Keywords: | Ownership Consolidation; Resale Dynamics; Spatial Autocorrelation; Spatial Clustering |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_42 |
| By: | Felipe Francisco De Souza |
| Abstract: | This study integrates historical institutionalism with geostatistical methods to examine the evolution and impact of land readjustment (Baulandumlegung) projects in Frankfurt am Main over the past 120 years. Drawing on critical junctures and path dependence as theoretical pillars, we trace how pivotal legal, political, and economic events—such as new planning laws, macroeconomic crises, and wartime disruptions—shaped planning policies and practices. We hypothesize that once certain institutional pathways were chosen, subsequent changes became increasingly constrained, leading to distinct project designs, financing schemes, and dispute-resolution practices. Methodologically, we present a novel Baulandumlegung Prognosis Algorithm that combines machine learning, spatiotemporal statistics, and a historical institutionalist ground to forecast land readjustment outcomes. The dataset, which spans from 1902 to 2022, integrates unstructured data from archival records, property transaction listings, and Sütterlin-scripted documents across distinct historical periods, including the German Empire, Weimar Republic, and post-World War II eras. Applied to distinct periods of voluntary (139) and enforcement-based (183) project implementations, the algorithm incorporates seven key components into a single predictive pipeline—geographically weighted regression, Mahalanobis distance matching, difference-in-differences estimation, anisotropic variogram analysis, odds ratio clustering, a historical weight function, and a cumulative probability predictor. These components collectively capture spatial dependence, isolate treatment effects, and incorporate path-dependent institutional changes. At the core of this framework lies a machine-learning classification module. By applying cross-entropy loss to guide training, we iteratively optimize hyperparameters (e.g., learning rate, maximum tree depth, regularization terms) to minimize predictive bias and enhance model generalizability in real estate markets. We pair 'treated' land readjustment sites with comparable 'control' areas to quantify the causal impact of Baulandumlegung on property prices and urban form over time. Additionally, anisotropic (semi)variogram analyses uncover hidden spatial heterogeneities by illustrating how direction-specific correlation structures influence project outcomes. A historical weight function further operationalizes how critical junctures shaped path-dependent trajectories across German political regimes. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in the effects of land readjustment across Frankfurt am Main, with varying impacts on property values and urban development patterns. Empirical validation using spatial cross-validation confirms that our machine learning approach successfully predicts project locations at specific times while accounting for complex spatiotemporal relationships outperforming traditional parametric and non-spatial hedonic models. Preliminary findings suggest that critical junctures—such as the post-war reconstruction and amendments to the German Building Code—acted as catalysts for reaffirming or altering Frankfurt’s planning trajectory. This methodological innovation provides urban planners and policymakers with a robust tool for analyzing not only prospective land readjustment areas but also regions affected by other planning instruments, effectively combining a historical-institutionalist framework with modern machine-learning techniques. |
| Keywords: | Geostatistics; historical institutionalism; Land Readjustment; Machine learning Algorithms |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_185 |
| By: | Sardo, Alessio |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the contractual and proprietary implications of short-term rental (STR) regulation in European cities. Focusing on Berlin, London, Milan, and Paris, it compares regulatory strategies ranging from targeted administrative restrictions to structural redefinitions of housing access. Drawing on private law theory and law-and-economics approaches, the article shows how STR regulation reconfigures the classical balance between contractual autonomy and property rights in light of urban policy goals. Empirical analysis complements the normative argument through a Hedonic Pricing Model estimated across the four cities. Using log-linear regressions with neighbourhood fixed effects and clustered standard errors on Inside Airbnb data, the model reveals robust and significant spatial price differentials. Entire flats and hotel-type listings command substantial premiums, while private and shared rooms are structurally penalized. These effects persist across specifications and point to a regressive structure in platform-mediated rental markets. By combining doctrinal and quantitative methods, the article frames STR regulation as a site of distributive recalibration within private law. Legal categories are not neutral: they structure access to the city. As STRs reshape property use, contract enforcement, and urban residence, the paper argues for a renewed legal framework attentive to spatial inequality, enforcement asymmetries, and platform governance.226 |
| Keywords: | short term rentals; social function; hedonic pricing model; Airbnb; platforms regulation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130151 |
| By: | Phiri Kampanje, Brian |
| Abstract: | This study strived to analyse the level and extent of involving local government authorities in the development of the Malawi Secondary Cities Plan and its associated legislative instruments. The findings of the study demonstrate lack of coordination between the central and local government authorities leading to an obvious decimal or no progress at all. Local councils must take an active role through its association and demand more involvement for the betterment of the general citizenry. |
| Keywords: | Local; Council, Vision 2063; Malawi, SDG 11 |
| JEL: | H10 H60 H76 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126554 |
| By: | Kerem Yavuz Arslanli; Ayse Buket Onem; Maral Tascilar; Cemre Ozipek; Maide Donmez; Belinay Hira Guney; Sule Tagtekin; Candan Bodur; Yulia Besik |
| Abstract: | The catastrophic consequences of the February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye have accentuated the pressing necessity for resilient and sustainable reconstruction in disaster-stricken regions. This research paper investigates the potential for low carbon investments in the real estate sector to catalyze the recovery and redevelopment of earthquake-affected areas. By employing demand modeling techniques and scrutinizing key market indicators, the study endeavors to identify investment opportunities that can yield both economic and environmental benefits. The paper leverages a comprehensive dataset encompassing 81 cities from 2013 to 2024, facilitating a robust analysis of residential market dynamics, energy consumption patterns, and socioeconomic factors. Through the application of random-effects GLS regression, the research elucidates the determinants of housing demand and the feasibility of low carbon interventions in post-disaster settlements. The findings provide invaluable insights for policymakers, investors, and real estate professionals aspiring to promote sustainable and resilient reconstruction efforts. By emphasizing the potential for low carbon investments to stimulate economic recovery while concurrently mitigating climate change impacts, this paper contributes to the burgeoning body of knowledge on green real estate and disaster risk management. |
| Keywords: | demand modeling, ; disaster recovery, ; low carbon real estate, ; resilient reconstruction, |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_288 |
| By: | Andrea Ichino; Fabrizia Mealli; Javier Viviens |
| Abstract: | We study whether access to standardized test scores improves the quality of teachers' secondary school track recommendations, using Dutch data and a metric based on Principal Stratification in a quasi-randomized setting. Allowing teachers to revise their recommendations when test results exceed expectations increases the share of students successfully placed in more demanding tracks by at least 6%, but misplaces 7% of weaker students. However, only implausibly high weights on the short-term losses of students who must change track because of misplacement would justify prohibiting test-score-based upgrades. Access to test scores also induces fairer recommendations for immigrant and low-SES students. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05128 |
| By: | Vsevolod Nikolaiev |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the report is to demonstrate the way out of difficult situation in private housing in multi-apartment buildings, which is caused in Ukraine by massive destructions and migration of population. We have proposed financial mechanisms of external investments in new buildings and reconstruction of damaged housing stock, further sustainable provision of housing in cities based on the transformation and diversification of ownership models. Situation analysis. As of 2020, 93.3% of urban families in Ukraine lived in their own dwellings (66.9% in apartment buildings); 5.7% rented them from private owners, and only 1% used municipal or company housing as tenants. The state policy and legislation on housing ownership and management were focused mainly on joint homeownership based on a distorted and inefficient national condominium model: without a land plot, state registration and reflection of houses as real estates in accounting. The low incomes of citizens did not allow them, as owners, to make decisions that would ensure the proper maintenance and repair of their houses. In the context of massive destruction, these and other shortcomings of the ownership and management model, like actual absence of residents of the destroyed buildings, became an obstacle to organising investments in their reconstruction. That is why financial schemes for public and donor’s funding for the reconstruction of private housing are currently strictly limited. Methodology. Our previous long-term research on the renovation of housing of inefficient owners was based on a comprehensive systematic analysis of the historical causes, legislative shortcomings, technical and economic problems of joint ownership and management of buildings. This has actually allowed us to be prepared to justify non-standard solutions by linking the reconstruction of destroyed housing with the need to transform the forms and relations of ownership in apartment buildings. Proposals. Taking into account heavy financial situation of households and their need of repaired or new dwellings, it is proposed to expand significantly the segment of municipal social housing, as opposed to preserving private property model. European and global practice has tested the model of using loans to build new municipal buildings and transfer them as assets to municipal housing companies for use as rented apartments. However, to speed up the resettlement of families, we propose to use loans to buy out cheaper apartments in already completed or unfinished buildings. This will mean that municipal housing companies will own and manage not only entire buildings, but also individual apartments in jointly owned buildings. Our next completely innovative proposal is to introduce also a model of external municipal or private investment in the restoration and reconstruction of jointly owned (condominium) properties with the preliminary transformation of owners' associations into business companies with investor participation. In such a model, the municipal housing company will also own shares of corporate rights, and the former apartment owners will pay the investor rent in proportion to his contribution. Practical implications. Our proposals are being discussed in professional circles in Ukraine with the participation of investors and government officials. Familiarisation with them by a wide foreign professional community should help to improve and implement an effective diversified model of sustainable housing provision. |
| Keywords: | company; housing; Property; Reconstruction |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_61 |
| By: | Johann Weiß; Jakob-Fabian Svoboda; Florian-Jonas Wehner; Sven Bienert |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The adaptive reuse of sacred buildings presents a unique challenge and opportunity for urban and real estate development, addressing challenges posed by secularization, demographic shifts, and economic pressures. Despite the increasing emergence of these transformations, the socio-economic and cultural dimensions of repurposing sacred spaces remain underexplored in real estate research. This study addresses this gap by integrating interdisciplinary insights from theology, monument preservation, architecture, real estate economics, and social sciences to propose a common-good-oriented framework for sacred space transformation.Design/methodology/approach – Through a qualitative content analysis (Kuckartz, 2018), we examine over 14 interdisciplinary case studies and workshops, as well as expert interviews, and secondary data. By integrating the Common Good Framework (Mazzucato, 2023) and the Institutional Real Estate Development Process (Healey, 1991), this research seeks to expand existing real estate development models to address complex, metaphysical, and ""wicked"" problems inherent in urban redevelopment.Findings – Our findings reveal barriers and opportunities in aligning adaptive reuse projects with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 11, which emphasizes sustainable urbanization and heritage preservation. Results reveal that sacred buildings can serve as community anchors and drivers of urban resilience when redeveloped with interdisciplinary collaboration and participatory planning.Originality/value – To the best of the author's knowledge, this study is the first to propose a meta-dimensional, common-good-oriented approach to real estate development, integrating theoretical and practical insights from multiple disciplines. It provides actionable strategies for developers and policymakers to enhance inclusivity, sustainability, and cultural preservation in urban environments. |
| Keywords: | Adaptive Reuse; Common Good; Sacred Spaces; Sustainable Urban Redevelopment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_128 |
| By: | Hnin, Chue Htet; Reyes, Julieta A. Delos; Bustos, Angelina R.; Lapiña, Geny F. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea25:373410 |
| By: | Collins, Rebecca; Mancini, Mattia; Bateman, Ian; Bull, Joseph W.; Duffus, Natalie; Groom, Ben; Milner-Gulland, E.J.; Smith, Robert J.; zu Ermgassen, Sophus; Eigenbrod, Felix |
| Abstract: | Biodiversity offsetting has emerged as an increasingly popular policy tool aiming to ensure that housing development associated with urban expansion can benefit nature. Offsets compensate for biodiversity losses from development by creating, restoring, or enhancing habitats, aiming to achieve either no net loss or a net gain in biodiversity. The effectiveness of this approach depends not only on the quantity and condition of the offsets but also on their spatial placement, which can be either on the development site or elsewhere. We present a spatially explicit modelling framework designed to explore how offset location affects biodiversity outcomes and ecosystem service co-benefits at the regional scale - the scale at which infrastructure planning decisions are generally made - using an English region (Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire) undergoing significant housing growth as a case study. Findings reveal that closest proximity-driven offsetting underperforms in terms of biodiversity outcomes (species richness) and opportunity costs of agriculture. In contrast, regional prioritisation aligned with strategically planned conservation networks (i.e., regional Nature Recovery Networks), delivers the greatest increase in species richness (12%) and lower opportunity costs. In separate scenarios, restricting offsets to administrative planning boundaries yielded even lower opportunity costs and higher values for co-benefits (carbon sequestration and flood damage avoided costs), although this restriction resulted in a smaller percentage increase in species richness. These results demonstrate the value of strategic planning in guiding biodiversity offsetting implementation and highlight the potential for Nature Recovery Networks or similar conservation networks to enhance biodiversity outcomes at the regional scale. |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wh4ra_v1 |
| By: | Luisito Bertinelli (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Evie Graus (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Jean-François Maystadt (UC Louvain, B); Silvia Peracchi (UC Louvain, B) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of road access on child health in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2012 by combining geolocated data on child anthropometric outcomes with spatial data on road networks. To address endogeneity, we employ an instrumental variable approach based on the inconsequential units framework, constructing hypothetical road networks that connect historical cities and active mines. Our results show that closer proximity to paved roads significantly improves child health. The main mechanisms operate through improved healthcare access and utilization, higher household wealth, early signs of structural transformation, and cropland expansion. We find no evidence that these gains are offset by adverse environmental or epidemiological effects of improved road access. Overall, the findings underscore the role of road infrastructure in fostering development across Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | roads, Sub-Saharan Africa, child health, causal analysis. |
| JEL: | O15 I15 O18 O55 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-18 |
| By: | Viktorija Cohen; Darius Zabulionis |
| Abstract: | Housing prices are influenced by multiple factors, from economic trends and demographic changes to construction costs and the unique characteristics of different locations. While many of these factors can be analyzed and forecasted, their influence on price levels introduces an additional layer of uncertainty, making predictions of prices challenging. Recognizing this complexity and understanding the probabilistic nature of house prices is crucial for developers, buyers, or policymakers, as price fluctuations directly impact financial risk, investment decisions, and economic stability. For real estate developers, knowing the probability of housing prices staying below a certain level is crucial—it represents a potential financial risk, as lower prices may lead to reduced profits or project viability concerns. On the other hand, homebuyers face the opposite challenge: the probability that prices will rise beyond their affordability level. Policymakers, meanwhile, must assess the fluctuations to ensure market stability, address housing affordability, and design effective regulations. All these perspectives emphasize the need to understand average price trends and the full range of possible price fluctuations. The nature of the factors influencing housing prices can be considered inherently uncertain. One of the critical aspects of understanding housing price uncertainty is the recognition that the housing market is heterogeneous, comprising various interlinked segments. Borgerse (2014) highlights that this heterogeneous nature leads to different pricing dynamics and risk levels across market segments. Housing price volatility is also essential in shaping buyer behavior and investment decisions. Prior studies, such as Wang et al. (2020), suggest that households adjust their purchasing strategies based on expectations regarding future price trends and volatility, which influence their decisions, and the overall risk premium associated with real estate investments. Similarly, Huang (2020) emphasizes that housing risk factors are time-varying by nature. It means that price fluctuations evolve in response to broader economic and policy changes. Furthermore, housing price uncertainty has broader economic stability and consumer welfare implications, influencing financial risks, mortgage markets, and regulatory policies. Prior studies suggest that price volatility can have asymmetric effects on economic growth, with negative price movements often triggering more severe economic disruptions (Asadov et al., 2023). Fluctuations in housing prices impact consumer confidence and spending behavior, reinforcing their role in broader economic cycles (Nikitina, 2023). Additionally, macroprudential policy adjustments, such as loan-to-value regulations or capital requirements, can sometimes lead to unintended price increases in specific markets (Sun et al., 2016; Wu & Li, 2017). Likewise, monetary policy decisions—particularly interest rate adjustments—directly influence housing price fluctuations (Yang, 2023; Bjørnland & Jacobsen, 2010; Zhang & Zoli, 2014). However, interventions must be carefully designed to avoid increasing market volatility or restricting housing accessibility (Changdong & Jiang, 2021; Iacoviello & Neri, 2010). To capture the uncertainty, housing prices can be viewed as a dynamic process, changing over time in ways that are not entirely deterministic. We must examine how housing prices are distributed over time to understand these fluctuations better. A key tool for this is the cumulative distribution function (CDF), which helps estimate the likelihood of prices falling within specific ranges (Huang et al., 2024). However, capturing this complexity requires more than just general trends. Key indicators like the average price, price volatility (variance), and the overall shape of the price distribution are used to make informed decisions. Despite the importance of these insights, a gap in data availability makes it difficult to conduct analysis: publicly available data lacks data on the properties’ housing prices. While some studies, such as those by Young and Graff (1995) and Bond et al. (2007), have explored price distributions, comprehensive real-world data remains limited. This research emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of housing price fluctuations. It offers insights into housing price risk assessment by applying probabilistic modeling to capture market uncertainty. These findings enhance our understanding of housing price risk assessment, helping developers anticipate financial exposure, assisting policymakers in designing effective regulations and providing buyers with a clearer understanding of affordability risks. Methodology and sampling To model housing price uncertainty, this study treats housing prices as a stochastic process, where prices evolve over time in a non-deterministic manner. Instead of relying on single-value estimates, we use probability distributions to assess the likelihood of prices falling within specific ranges. The study defines housing prices as a random variable and evaluates their behavior using a cumulative distribution function (CDF). For the empirical analysis, three probability distributions were considered: 1. Normal Distribution – Assumes price fluctuations are symmetrically distributed around the mean, often used in financial modeling but may not fully capture real estate price variations. 2. Lognormal Distribution – Accounts for right-skewed price distributions, where extreme price increases are more frequent than Generalized Lambda Distribution (GLD) – A flexible distribution capable of modeling asymmetry and heavy tails, making it well-suited for real estate price dynamics. The study applies statistical fitting techniques using software tools from the R programming environment to determine which distribution best represents housing price behavior. Specifically, the moment method estimates parameters for the GLD, which allows for a more accurate representation of price fluctuations. The dataset consists of 3, 186 transaction records of fully completed flat purchases in Vilnius, Lithuania, spanning from January 2018 to October 2022. Each transaction includes 60 property characteristics. Transactions involving commercial properties were excluded to maintain homogeneity within the sample. Preliminary results The findings demonstrate that the Normal distribution does not adequately describe housing price variability, whereas the Lognormal and GLD distributions provide a better fit. GLD offers the most precise representation of market fluctuations, making it a valuable tool for real estate risk assessment and pricing strategies. The analysis showed that the quarantine did not significantly affect the number of RE transactions. However, the total amount of the RE transaction money is much more considerable immediately after the quarantine than before. The 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 0.9 quantiles of the price of the sq.m. of flats showed a stable increase with respect to the time during the period under the investigation. However, the increase of 0.75 and 0.9 quantiles of RE price per is steeper than that of lower 0.1 and 0.25 quantiles. The findings highlight the importance of selecting appropriate probability distributions for housing price modeling. The results show that the GLD better captured housing price dynamics compared to Normal and Lognormal distributions. The study contributes a more robust understanding of housing price uncertainty, providing additional insights for real estate stakeholders. extreme declines. 3. |
| Keywords: | CDF; Housing Price; probability distribution; Uncertainty |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_264 |
| By: | Jordan T Kemp; Laura F\"ursich; Lu\'is M A Bettencourt |
| Abstract: | Growth is a multi-layered phenomenon in human societies, composed of socioeconomic and demographic change at many different scales. Yet, standard macroeconomic indicators average over most of these processes, blurring the spatial and hierarchical heterogeneity driving people's choices and experiences. To address this gap, we introduce here a framework based on the Price equation to decompose aggregate growth exactly into endogenous and selection effects across nested spatial scales. We illustrate this approach with population and income data from the Chicago metropolitan area (2014-2019) and show that both growth rates and spatial selection effects are most intense at local levels, fat-tailed and spatially correlated. We also find that selection, defined as the covariance between prevailing income and relative population change, is concentrated in few spatial units and exhibits scaling behavior when grouped by county. Despite the intensity of local sorting, selection effects largely cancel in the aggregate, implying that fast heterogeneous micro-dynamics can yield deceptively stable macro-trends. By treating local spatial units (neighborhoods) as evolving subpopulations under selection, we demonstrate how methods from complex systems provide new tools to classify residential selection processes, such as abandonment and gentrification, in an urban sociological framework. This approach is general and applies to any other nested economic systems such as networks of production, occupations, or innovation enabling a new mechanistic understanding of compositional change and growth across scales of organization. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.06165 |
| By: | Tobias Auer; Tom Kirchmaier |
| Abstract: | In this paper we focus on how the criminal history of a household affects juvenile reoffending. Using detailed administrative data from Greater Manchester Police for 2007-2018, we construct a matched sample of 15, 548 juvenile first-time offenders. We show causally that juveniles from a household with a previous criminal record are 26.4 to 29.8 percentage points more likely to reoffend within three years, with the greatest additional risk being in the first year after the initial offence. We show that social learning, co-offending by siblings, and differential processing contribute to this effect. Our findings highlight household criminality as an important driver of criminal persistence, underscoring the need to move beyond individual-level predictors and address the criminogenic dynamics within the home. |
| Keywords: | Criminal families, youth crime, repeat offenders |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2132 |
| By: | Giuseppe Cavaliere; Luca Fanelli; Marco Mazzali |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of Italian local fiscal policy by estimating regional government spending multipliers at the NUTS-2 and NUTS-1 levels, using annual data from 1995 to 2021. We employ a novel econometric methodology to comprehensively capture the heterogeneous effects of exogenous government spending across regions, disentangling the effects of public investment from those of public consumption. Our analysis is based on Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FA-VAR) models, where an external instrument is used to indirectly identify fiscal spending shocks. To address the challenge of identifying valid external instruments in a context of limited cross-sectional data, we use factor analysis to construct a non-fiscal instrument capturing the "common" (national) component driving the dynamics of Italian regional output. This instrument is applied across all regions to estimate fiscal reaction functions. We find that while expansionary fiscal shocks induce positive short-term effects - particularly when public regional investment is analyzed separately from public regional consumption - the uncertainty surrounding these effects is remarkably high. This crucial aspect, often overlooked in the existing literature, complicates the empirical assessment of the effectiveness of regional fiscal policy. Based on our bootstrap based robust confidence intervals, the effects of fiscal spending shocks tend to dissipate in a few years. We also detected significant regional disparities, with fiscal multipliers being larger in the Center-North regions compared to the Southern regions. This pattern persists even when analyzing Italian macro-areas (NUTS-1 level), underscoring the need for tailored regional fiscal policies. |
| JEL: | C32 C50 E62 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1216 |
| By: | I. Etzo; L. Ciucci |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the competitiveness and efficiency of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) within the Cultural and Creative Industries (CCI) in Italy, using a comprehensive firm-level dataset from 2019 to 2023. We estimate Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to analyze firm performance, addressing endogeneity concerns through panel fixed-effects models and employing a Translog production function for flexible input elasticity. Our findings reveal significant spatial heterogeneity, with central and north-western regions exhibiting higher CCI productivity than southern areas. Furthermore, we uncover disparities related to firm size, age, and specialization within Creative versus Cultural domains. The largest and oldest CCI firms show a higher TFP. The Creative industry demonstrates greater productivity than the Cultural industry. We provide evidence that manufacturing-oriented CCI tend to exhibit lower productivity compared to service-oriented CCI. The results underscore the importance of targeted policies to address regional disparities and sectorspecific challenges within the CCI ecosystem, promoting innovation and sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | Cultural and creative industries;total factor productivity;SMEs;Italian regions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202514 |
| By: | Saani Rawat |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effect of urban local governance on public goods provision in India. We exploit quasi-random variation in multi-threshold criteria utilized for classifying Census Towns (CTs) and focus on settlements near the thresholds that are likely to obtain statutory recognition. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we instrument for urban local governance to identify the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE). We document a strong first stage relationship between meeting CT thresholds and statutory recognition. Our results show that obtaining an Urban Local Body (ULB) increases local public good provision: government schools increase by approximately 14 (primary), 8 (middle), and 5 (secondary), healthcare infrastructure expands by 2 hospitals and 3 family welfare centers, and financial access deepens with 15 private banks, 2 cooperative banks, and 2 agricultural credit societies. Community amenities improve modestly with an additional public library, reading room, and cinema hall. Sports infrastructure declines by 5 facilities, consistent with our understanding of reallocation of urban space and investments. Our findings suggest that timely municipalization of emerging urban areas can expand provision of certain public goods, which may improve living standards and economic opportunities in urbanizing economies. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.06562 |
| By: | David H. Feldman; Adam D. Jutt (Economics Department, William & Mary); Roswell Miller (Economics Department, William & Mary) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of walking distance from dormitory to classroom on academic performance among first-year students at William & Mary. Leveraging a natural experiment created by the university’s randomized dorm assignments, we analyze student-class level data from two cohorts (2016–17 and 2017–18). We find a statistically significant negative impact of distance, both for all classes and for the subset of “first classes of the day, †as the distance measure may reflect actual travel more accurately for these classes. The effect is robust to student fixed effects and various class-level controls, and is particularly pronounced in large-enrollment and early morning classes. This is consistent with attendance-related frictions driving the effect. These findings support institutional policies that minimize first-year students’ walking distance to class. |
| Keywords: | distance; dorm; GPA |
| JEL: | C93 I21 I23 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:174 |
| By: | Janine Aron; John Muellbauer |
| Abstract: | Aggregate consumption typically exceeds 60 per cent of GDP and should be pivotal in central bank policy models. Most use semi-structural macro-models, yet consumption is usually inadequately specified. We use a systems approach to estimate new equations for South African consumption, house prices, mortgage and non-mortgage debt, and income forecasting. A credit-augmented consumption function approach introduces a greater role for uncertainty and a key role for credit conditions, and varies the spendability of different wealth components. This provides new insights into the multiple monetary transmission mechanisms, from policy interest rates and credit conditions to aggregate demand, including via non-homogeneous household balance sheet items on consumption. Credit conditions for mortgages and for other debt move quite differently from each other, with implications for consumer spending. Non-mortgage debt covers a larger fraction of total household debt than in advanced market economies, affecting household financial vulnerability. Housing market participants tend to extrapolate recent house price changes when forming expectations of capital gains, so positive shocks to housing demand can feed back onto house prices and consumption and extend boom conditions. House prices and debt can overshoot relative to their fundamentals, affecting financial stability. These findings should benefit future policy modelling in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | aggregate consumption, house prices, credit conditions, household debt, housing collateral, monetary transmission, equation system |
| JEL: | C32 E21 E51 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-13 |
| By: | Alix Le Goff (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Martin Koning (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel); Guillaume Monchambert (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Clément Marchal (Start Up Ecov); Jean-Baptiste Ray (Start Up Ecov) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impacts of several implementations of daily mobility policies and external shocks on social costs, with a particular focus on carpooling. This social cost is calculated considering consumer's cost, external costs, as well as the expenses and incomes of public authorities and private companies. Four transport modes are considered: solo driver, carpool driver, carpool passenger and public transport. A modal choice model is then applied to trips with 6, 287 different origin-destination of the eastern Lyon area. Simulations of time-gain and monetary scenarios are then realized to observe impacts on demand and consequently on the other parameters affecting the social costs. Our results show that consumer's costs explain the majority of the total social cost. Values commonly used for externalities barely impact the social cost in the simulations and traffic reduction measures impact more public and private revenues than they reduce externalities, leading to higher total social costs. Moreover, results illustrate significant variations at the geographical scale, depending on the ODs where the policies are applied. These results suggest implementing daily-carpooling incentives should be decided conscientiously considering the local context. |
| Keywords: | Social cost analysis, Transport policies, Carpooling, Daily mobility |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04465555 |
| By: | Francis M. Dillon; Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Andrew J. Wang |
| Abstract: | Immigrant students who attend U.S. colleges are disproportionately employed in either large firms—especially multinationals—or small firms and self-employment. Using linked Census and longitudinal employment data, we trace the jobs taken by college students in 2000 during the 2001-20 period and evaluate four mechanisms shaping sector and firm size placement: geographic clustering, degree specialization, firm capabilities/visas, and ethnic self-employment specialization. Degree fields predict large firm and MNE placement, while ethnic specialization explains small firm sorting. Immigrant students who remain in the U.S. earn more than their native peers, suggesting the segmentation reflects productive sorting rather than blocked opportunity. |
| JEL: | F22 F23 F66 I23 J61 L26 M13 M16 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34440 |
| By: | Nordin, Martin (Agrifood Economics Centre and Department of Economics, Lund University); Bergh, Andreas (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines income and employment outcomes for immigrants in Sweden’s most immigrant-dense neighbourhoods between 1998 and 2022. While relative employment among immigrants has improved, relative incomes in these neighbourhoods have stagnated or declined. The most plausible explanation for the persisting income gap and the shrinking employment gap between immigrant-dense and other neighbourhoods is that immigrants in immigrant-dense neighbourhoods are increasingly channelled into non-standard employment. If we look at all immigrants, regardless of where they live, gaps between immigrants and natives are shrinking, both in terms of income and employment. Reconciling these patterns, we show that individuals in immigrant-dense neighbourhoods who enter employment are more likely to relocate to other areas. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant integration; Labour market outcomes; Non-standard employment; Immigrant-dense neighbourhoods |
| JEL: | J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1540 |
| By: | Thi Xuan Loi Dang; Olli Kytomaki |
| Abstract: | The adoption of PropTech in the real estate sector is often seen as a key enabler to transform the sector into a more efficient and sustainable industry. However, despite its potential, the sector exhibits structural resistance to integrating PropTech solutions. This research aims to identify the value capture mechanisms within the commercial real estate sector when a new product or service are introduced to the sector, like PropTech. By applying path dependency theory and developing a conceptual value matrix, this study explores how underlying business or industry logic that shape the sector’s ability to utilize technology. The research employs qualitative methods, including interviews with key stakeholders—such as Chief Digital Officers (CDOs), CEOs, real estate investors, and representatives from industry organizations—spanning both private and public sector actors. The data is analyzed using axial coding to uncover patterns in decision-making, value creation, and technology adoption. The findings highlight the critical barrier which is the need of update existed valuation models to accurately capture the value created by PropTech in commercial real estate. In line with this findings, we also identified enabler which is the importance for technology supplier to provide scalable products, both economical and technology. The study provides a new and deeper perspective on PropTech adoption barriers, emphasizing the interdependence of real estate owners and technology providers in overcoming these challenges. By deepening our understanding of value capture as mechanisms to ease the adoption of new technology, product or services, this research contributes to the growning need for traditional sector to update their business model for adressing the discourse on technology role in reshaping the real estate industry. |
| Keywords: | business model innovation; path dependency; Property technology; proptech |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_270 |
| By: | Soyoung Lee; Kyungmin Kim |
| Abstract: | A Review of the Rent Component in the Consumer Price Index in South Korea: Focusing on the Incorporation of a Transaction-Based Index Soyoung Lee (Seoul National University Graduate School of Environmental Studies, PhD Candidate) Abstract The Consumer Price Index (CPI) serves as a critical reference for both national policy and private sector decision-making. Within the CPI of South Korea, the Housing Cost Index holds a 9.91% weight, playing a key role in reflecting housing costs as a single largest component of the CPI figure. However, concerns have been raised regarding the accuracy of the rent index in capturing actual housing expenses. There are two primary issues in the current CPI housing cost measurement. First, a potential discrepancy exists between the CPI rent index and actual housing costs. Despite rising market rental prices, the CPI rent index may not fully reflect these increases due to factors such as small sample, survey methodology, reporting delays, and lease contract structures. Second, the treatment of owner-occupied housing cost(OOH) in CPI calculations remains a critical issue. While many countries incorporate OOH into their CPI, South Korea only provides an OOH-inclusive index as a supplementary indicator. Since OOH represents the opportunity cost of homeownership, its inclusion in the CPI could enhance the accuracy of housing cost assessments. A standardized approach, aligned with European practices, may be necessary to define and integrate OOH appropriately. This study aims to analyze the discrepancy between the CPI rent index and actual housing costs while evaluating the feasibility of a market transaction-based rent index. The research proceeds as follows: first, a review of the theoretical background and previous studies will examine rent index methodologies across major economies and identify factors contributing to discrepancies. Then, we explore the potential integration of OOH into the CPI and assess alternative methods for constructing a transaction-based rent index. |
| Keywords: | Actual Transaction Price; Consumer Price Index; Housing Cost; Rent Index |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_263 |
| By: | Phiri Kampanje, Brian |
| Abstract: | Malawi urgently needs the eight secondary cities it plans to build by 2030 to improve the social and economic welfare of its citizens. There is however little progress made in that regard in view of the absence of the financing structure. The local councils to host the secondary cities should seriously consider the municipal bonds as a sustainable financing mechanism and encourage their citizens to own the projects. There is a need to align the Local Government Act and the Public Finance Management Act on the municipal bonds. Other pertinent issues must be resolved too. This requires commitment from multistakeholders and is highly achievable. |
| Keywords: | Municipal; Bonds, Secondary Cities; Malawi |
| JEL: | H39 H54 H63 H7 H74 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126555 |
| By: | Giovanna Ciaffi; Matteo Deleidi; Antonino LOfaro |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of Mission–Oriented Innovation Policies (MOIPs) and public R&D investment by quantifying the responses of GDP, private investment, hours worked, labour productivity, and the real hourly wage. We combine a Bartik–type identification strategy with the Local Projections method on a novel dataset with a sectoral–regional dimension, covering 333 European NUTS–2 regions over 1995–2019. Results show that R&D government spending exerts robust and persistent expansionary effects, crowding in private investment, raising employment, and boosting productivity. Sectoral heterogeneity emerges, with high multiplicative effects in construction and finance, while employment effects are concentrated in construction and market services. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy; Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies; R&D government spending; Sectoral heterogeneity; Regional economics; Local Projections; European regions. Jel Classification: R11; E62; H50; O38 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:934 |
| By: | Matthias Soot; Daniel Kretzschmar; Alexandra Weitkamp |
| Abstract: | The year of construction is one of the most important building features, indicating factors such as building morphology, building material types and construction technologies. Knowing the specific year of construction of a building helps to estimate energy consumption and demolition waste, answers questions about urban renewal processes in the context of urban planning, improves the accuracy of material stock models and material cadasters and advances MFA and LCA. Additionally, the building age is relevant for real estate value and rent estimations. In Germany, detailed information for individual buildings is not publicly available due to data protection regulations. Traditionally, this information is collected by experts who roughly classify buildings into an age category based on specific visual building characteristics. In recent years, the possibilities of extracting construction age information from the visual appearance of building façades via ground image data have been increasingly explored via deep convolutional neural networks (DCNN). An easy way to derive Information about images are pretrained Visual Language Models (VLM) and Large Language Models (LLM). The question arises as to whether the laborious estimation of the age of a building by humans still guarantees better results in times of freely accessible LLMs, or whether AI can beat the experts. In our study, we conducted a comprehensive survey of more than 350 real estate experts, each of whom was asked to evaluate five randomized images. Analogously, we asked the AI to do the same by using image recognition to ask ChatGPT to estimate the age of construction. The results show that the AI achieves significantly better results than individual experts across all building age groups. Only by sorting the experts according to their experience, local expertise and their own expertise assessment, and by combining the experts' estimations, certain groups of experts manage to beat the AI. |
| Keywords: | building age; construction year; large language models; real estate experts |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_262 |
| By: | Sotirios Thanos; Jean Dubé |
| Abstract: | Difference-in-difference (DiD) exploit exogenous shocks to capture causal effects in hedonic pricing (HP) models but rely heavily on fixed effects (FE) to, both, define the quasi-experimental settings and satisfy the assumptions of no spatial and temporal omitted variable bias (OVB). Bishop et al (2020, p:271-2) explain the function of time and space FEs: a)“generalizing the DiD model by interacting price function parameters with time-period dummies, allows the shape of the price function to change over time”; and b) “the geographic scale for these [spatial] dummy variables presents a bias-variance trade-off: defining neighborhoods to be smaller reduces bias by better controlling for omitted amenities but increases variance by relying on less within-neighborhood variation in the amenity of interest”. To help address the reliance on FEs and bias-variance trade-off, we develop a causal identification strategy that integrates DiD and the “Differenced-Price-Peers” (DPP) (Thanos and Dubé, 2022) approach. The DPP approach is based on comparable sales occurring in close spatial proximity and tight time-window before a house sale. By differencing out common spatial observables and unobservables between comparables, DPP delivers a spatiotemporal OVB treatment without relying on FEs or sacrificing any variance, which is especially useful in cases of sparse and challenging data. We first evidence the advantages of our approach by replicating the influential Linden and Rockoff (2008) results with improved statistical significance. We procced to employ the rare exogenous shock of airport closure in order to construct a quasi-experimental setting for aviation noise valuation, which is otherwise not possible due to the bias-variance trade-off. We find a 0.73% price increase per decibel of noise reduction for houses above the background noise level of 55 decibels, which suggests, on average, a €14, 000 increase to affected properties due to the airport closure and aviation noise termination. Our approach also allows to examine nonlinearities, as for instance we find a 2% price increase per decibel for noise reductions above 65 decibels. This translates to a substantial € 43, 000 increase to properties affected by aviation noise levels of 70 decibels. |
| Keywords: | aviation noise; difference-in-difference; House Prices; Omitted Variable Bias |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_27 |
| By: | Daan Schraven; Hilde Remoy; Michael Peeters; Vitalija Danivska |
| Abstract: | Value drives actions in our modern day economy. In their turn, these actions are the pillars for how well societal transitions are achieved in the long run. In the past decade, we’ve seen governments heavily funding and subsidizing transitions in action to better achieve desperately needed societal targets. Examples are the prevention of climate change, climate transition, and a decrease in resource consumption. However, these significant initiatives are not nearly close to being self-reliant. And with the current retraction of a lot of funds and subsidies on the horizon, the achievement of these transitions has gotten in serious jeopardy. The authors of this abstract posit that these funds and subsidies have not been able to make a significant step forward to successful transitions, mostly because the efforts still focus and rely on the monetary values and motivations and ignore the rest.. It is argued that the introduction of value beyond monetary terms and a way to determine this value is needed. In response, this abstract is intended as the ontological start for developing a summer school, which is part of a recently granted Marie Curie Doctoral Network programme, called QuiVal, where the concept of value is revisited using quantum theory. The summer school under development marks the doctoral network's first educational notes. The aim of the summer school therefore is to stimulate conceptual creativity and critical thinking on the concept of value and offer first clues on how value can be reimagined in practical fields of application surrounding the real estate sector. As preliminary examples to the content of these lecture notes, the authors aim to discuss the implications on value from the position of quantum finance versus classical finance, the potential of these implications to unlock perceptive capability for hard-to-measure value (e.g. social and environmental values) and how it can open up various dimensions of potential value measurements that are important to the multiple transitions in our built environment. To this background summer school, QuiVal aspires to broaden the recognition of non-financial values in industry, government, and research unlocking more sustainable approaches to real estate. For example, by developing models and tools for (non-financial) value measurements we could support decision-making and demonstrate the attractiveness of social and environmental projects better through the research by the doctoral network. |
| Keywords: | Circular economy; New valuation; Real Estate Education; Real Estate Value |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_170 |
| By: | Subhadarsini Parida; Cida Ghosn; Christhina Candido |
| Abstract: | Social capital is a growing factor in green bond pricing (Chen et al., 2024) where community support and societal trust can influence bond premiums, making green bonds more attractive financially. The 'green premium' can be seen as a manifestation of social capital, where investors are motivated not only by financial returns but also by the social and environmental impacts of their investments (MacAskill et al., 2021). As investor sentiment is often shaped by social capital (Piñeiro-Chousa et al., 2021), communities with strong social networks may foster a more favourable view of green investments. However, there remains a notable gap in the literature regarding the direct application of social capital to the green bond market within the context of the real estate and construction sectors. There is a lack of empirical research that explicitly connects social capital to the green bond market within the real estate and construction sectors. It is important to understand the financial aspects of green building projects, suggesting that social networks can play a pivotal role in overcoming financial barriers (Agyekum et al., 2022). Therefore, this paper investigates how social capital metrics—like community trust, corporate social responsibility (CSR) perception, and stakeholder engagement—impact green bond financing success in real estate and construction. It is based on the stakeholder theory, the collaboration among stakeholders, including building owners, investors, and local communities to address a gap in understanding the non-financial factors influencing green bond viability. This study will employ semi-structured interviews from corporate C suites, and developers to understand the measurable social benefits and value proposition to clients and investors when green bonds and/or green investment have been used. Additionally, the study aims to develop a framework for integrating social capital metrics into green bond assessments, providing investors with a more holistic view of sustainability projects. This research offers significant contributions for stakeholders in the real estate and construction sectors, particularly corporate executives, developers, and investors focused on green bond funding for sustainable projects. By integrating social capital metrics into project evaluations, the study advances understanding of how corporate leaders and developers can leverage these insights by integrating social capital elements to make projects more attractive to investors by reducing risk perceptions and boosting investor sentiment. Further, by valuing social capital metrics, investors gain insights from this study into a project’s long-term stability, supporting a shift in investment focus from purely financial gains to broader environmental and social impacts. References Agyekum, K., Goodier, C., & Oppon, J. A. (2022). Key drivers for green building project financing in Ghana. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 29(8), 3023-3050. Chen, H., Meng, Y., Ning, X., & Qi, Y. (2024). The pricing of green bonds: Does social capital matter? Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters, 67, 105756. MacAskill, S., Roca, E., Liu, B., Stewart, R. A., & Sahin, O. (2021). Is there a green premium in the green bond market? Systematic literature review revealing premium determinants. Journal of cleaner production, 280, 124491. Piñeiro-Chousa, J., López-Cabarcos, M. Á., Caby, J., & Ševi, A. (2021). The influence of investor sentiment on the green bond market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 162, 120351. |
| Keywords: | Esg; Green Bonds; Social Capital |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_32 |
| By: | Simona Peter; Micha Jonathan Poddig; Jan Chr. Schlüter |
| Abstract: | 1. IntroductionOver the past four decades, China has undergone significant economic and social transformations due to its Reform and Opening-Up Policy. However, the dual structure of the economy, which combines market mechanisms with socialist institutional elements, continues to influence wealth distribution (Hu & Gao, 2023; Meng, 2007). Housing wealth, a major component of private household wealth in China, has been shaped by historical redistribution policies and subsequent market reforms (Piketty, Yang & Zucman, 2019; Li & Zhao, 2007; Wu, Bian & Zhang, 2019). Despite various studies on wealth inequality, only a few studies have examined the long-term effects of socialist institutions and subsequent privatization of the market, and via this channel its role in overall wealth accumulation (Zhang, Sun & Zhang, 2021; Long, 2023; Wang, Ren, Yi, Huang & Ma, 2020). This study aims to fill this research gap by analyzing the impact of institutional factors on housing wealth and their broader implications for wealth distribution in China.2. Research ObjectivesThis research seeks to address the following key questions: -How do institutional factors such as the household registration system (hukou system), employment in state-owned enterprises, and Communist Party membership influence housing wealth in China? -What is the impact of housing wealth on total household wealth? -How have these effects evolved over time, particularly in the context of recent institutional reforms?3. MethodologyThe study employs data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and the Statistical Yearbook of China (2010-2020) to analyze the long-term effects of institutional factors on housing wealth. A combination of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models and instrumental variable (IV) estimations is used to address potential endogeneity issues. Key instrumental variables include parental Hukou status, employment in state institutions, and Communist Party membership, which provide exogenous variation in housing wealth in order to estimate causal effects of household housing wealth on overall wealth. The study distinguishes between urban and rural areas to capture disparities in wealth distribution.4. Expected ContributionsBy investigating the relationship between institutional factors and housing wealth, this study aims to contribute to the broader discourse on wealth inequality in China. It seeks to determine whether institutional barriers, such as the Hukou system and employment in state-owned enterprises, continue to influence real estate ownership and wealth accumulation, and if these Effects became more pronounced over time.5. Potential ImplicationsIf the study finds that institutional factors significantly impact housing wealth, it would suggest the persistence of historical barriers to wealth accumulation. Conversely, if socialist institutions are shown to be only minor driver of wealth distribution, it would indicate a shift away from socialist-era inequalities. The findings of this study could provide valuable insights for policymakers, particularly in shaping housing finance policies, Hukou reforms, and broader wealth redistribution strategies. |
| Keywords: | Chinese Institutional Factors; Housing Wealth; Wealth Accumulation; Wealth Inequality |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_275 |
| By: | Steven F. Lehrer; Luke Rawling |
| Abstract: | Immigrant integration is a central issue in policy debates, with wage assimilation serving as a key indicator of immigrants’ economic success. Using matched employer–employee data from Canada, we study how access to higher-paying firms affects the economic assimilation of immigrants. Immigrants are disproportionately concentrated in lower-paying firms, accounting for much of the observed inequality. Nearly half of this sorting occurs across industries, and both firm- and industry-level wage gaps stagnate after eight years, suggesting that further assimilation reflects human capital accumulation rather than improved firm access. Importantly, these disparities persist after controlling for estimates of worker skill, indicating barriers to high-paying firms rather than differences in human capital. The analysis further shows that Canada’s post-2015 immigration policy reforms significantly improved immigrant outcomes: the initial wage gap narrowed by 25–35%, with roughly half of the improvement attributable to better allocation into higher-paying firms. Taken together, the findings highlight the critical role of firm sorting and its interaction with immigration policy in shaping the economic integration of immigrants. |
| JEL: | J31 J60 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34462 |
| By: | Jay Mittal; Sweta Byahut |
| Abstract: | This paper delves into the planning and development of Amaravati, the greenfield capital city of Andhra Pradesh, through the use of land pooling strategy (LPS. Land Pooling Strategy (LPS) is used in many countries to reconfigure land parcels after pooling contiguous lands and servicing areas with basic infrastructure to achieve a well-coordinated, planned development. There are several variants of LPS. This voluntary tool of LPS used in Amaravati is notable for its unprecedented size, but also presents areas of concerns. The article examines the details of the land pooling policy (Land Readjustment), including its implementation and impact. The paper highlights the positive social benefits of the LPS (such as access to amenities and services, property value gains, limited displacement, limited to no use of eminent domain), which have helped build the initial public support. However, it also criticizes the corruption in the LPS, and notes notes issues with coercion, illegal land grabbing, speculation, and caste influence that undermined the voluntary participation goal. The paper specifically focuses on how the new city was planned and developed using the LPS. While the LPS was initially intended to be democratic and equitable, expected to benefit all citizens, in this paper we argue that it has primarily benefited wealthy landowners with ties to specific group -- the Kamma Caste. Nevertheless, the LPS has been successful in acquiring over 33, 000 acres from participating landowners, and property values have increased several folds of the initial amount. Participating landowners were returned up to 30 percent of their original land parcel, which the government of Andhra Pradesh had significantly improved.Additionally, the paper notes that Amaravati is being built on agricultural land in a region that was recommended not to be developed, with its proposed location in the Visakhapatnam-Guntur district remaining a topic of debate, even reaching the Supreme Court in 2023. At large, this paper is a critical review of innovative LPS as used in planning the Greenfield capital city of Andhra Pradesh, and synthesis different ideas and views of the LPS in its current state. In this paper, scholarly literature on land pooling, land readjustment, and official documents and plans are reviewed as part of the methodology. The importance of this article is evident due to the international focus of a planning strategy not commonly seen in the United States, although interestingly, the Washington DC was planned using a similar land pooling mechanism. By sharing this research exposing active planners and American planning students to new planning techniques, this article furthers inclusivity and diversity awareness and can lead to new and innovative planning practices within the United States. |
| Keywords: | Land Based Financing; Land pooling; Land Value Caopture; Urban Planning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_189 |
| By: | So Yoon Ahn; Darren Lubotsky |
| Abstract: | As cross-border marriages rise, many governments have tightened rules on who can marry across borders, often in the name of promoting integration. Cross-border couples tend to have high divorce rates, which hinders successful assimilation. This paper provides the first evidence on how restrictive marriage migration policies affect family outcomes of migrants. We exploit a 2014 reform in South Korea that introduced pre-entry requirements for marriage visas, with language proficiency as the key component. Using rich administrative and survey data, we show that the reform led to a sharp temporary decline in cross-border marriages, improved migrants’ language skills, and increased educational attainment among both migrants and their Korean spouses. Comparing marriage cohorts immediately before and after the reform cutoff date, we find that cumulative divorce rates fell by 37% in the first 12 months and by 12% in the first 48 months, primarily due to language-based selection rather than demographic factors. Our evidence indicates that improved communication enhanced marital surplus and highlights the potential positive impact of selective admission policies that target civil and cultural assimilation. |
| JEL: | J12 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34458 |
| By: | Dettmann, Eva; Fritz, Sarah |
| Abstract: | This study provides new evidence on the impact of the EU Cohesion Policy on income growth in less developed regions. Our panel includes data from all European regions for the years 1989-2020. Using a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we model treatment dynamics by applying a random effects estimator. Based on digitized historical data, we precisely replicate the policy rule and correctly classify the regions' eligibility status. Results show that the policy has a moderate positive effect on GDP per capita growth in the targeted regions. |
| Keywords: | causal analysis, EU Cohesion Policy, regression discontinuity design, place-based policy |
| JEL: | H20 R11 R58 Z18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:330917 |
| By: | Jeremy Gabe; John Demas |
| Abstract: | The user cost of capital model evaluates the total return on home equity required from home ownership that makes a household financially indifferent to owning or renting its dwelling. As the non-investment costs of owning or renting property – rent, loan interest, capital maintenance, insurance, taxes, and other operating costs – are relatively non-varying, it is home equity return expectations that are central to this decision. Existing studies concentrate on the role that home equity returns play in consumer spending, personal opinions of financial condition, perpetuating discrimination, and mobility. Scholars have also used the user cost model to project a forward-looking buy vs. rent index to aid current decision making. But few studies have evaluated whether ex post financial returns of home equity validated the original decision to own. This question is important, both as a test of conventional wisdom (renting is perceived as impoverishing) and public policy, which greatly subsidizes the ownership tenure. Using a database of repeat sale transactions in the United States along with a model of alternative investment portfolios, this study evaluates the net present value of every transaction for the two alternative tenures (renting or buying). Results suggest that home owners overestimate home equity returns, possibly influenced by public subsidies. However the combination of high leverage in homeownership and the correlation of home equity returns to upside-biased systemic risks (i.e. inflation) “bails out” homeowners such that the leveraged NPV of home equity often does beat alternative investment portfolio returns. These results suggest that access to leverage is what leads to wealth through home ownership, leaving behind those without steady income or qualifying credit. It also suggests that policy aimed at reducing housing costs, increasing affordability, or decreasing housing inequality will be most effective if it distributes housing leverage more equitably. |
| Keywords: | Affordability; Home Equity; Housing Finance; Social equity |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_191 |
| By: | Shaolong Wu |
| Abstract: | In the modern U.S. labor market, digital infrastructures strongly influence how individuals locate opportunities, build skills, and advance wages. Regional differences in computing access, broadband coverage, and digital literacy have significant labor implications for equity and sustainability. Drawing on longitudinal data from the NLSY97 (National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth) cohort, this study examines how place-based technological factors, personal demographics, household characteristics, and education shape income levels and decisions to seek new employment. The regression analyses reveal that educational attainment, marital status, and frequency of Internet usage strongly predict both wages and individuals' job-seeking intensity. Regional disparities in income underscore the need for more localized interventions to ensure equitable access to technology. This study raises key questions about how digital infrastructures can reinforce or challenge systemic inequalities in underserved communities. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05294 |
| By: | Vishaal Baulkaran; Pawan Jain |
| Abstract: | Financial literacy allows financial planners to provide unbiased and relevant recommendations to their clients as well as help them to mitigate clients’ behavioral biases. By recognizing clients’ behavioral biases, financial planners can take steps to mitigate their effects and make more rational and effective decisions (Barber and Odean, 2000; Shefrin and Statman, 1985; Huberman, 2001, Baulkaran and Jain, 2024). Financial planners’ ability to mitigate clients’ behavioral biases will likely increase with a greater degree of financial literacy. Financial literacy in the context of home equity release schemes refers to the planner's ability to understand the nuances of these products, assess their suitability for different client profiles, and communicate the associated risks and benefits effectively to clients (Baulkaran and Jain, 2024 and Baulkaran and Jain, 2023). Baulkaran and Jain (2024) highlights that while financial planners are generally knowledgeable, they may still fall prey to behavioral biases that can influence their recommendations. Given that financial literacy is paramount in financial planning and advising services, we examine financial planners’ knowledge of home equity release options. We show that financial planners’ total financial literacy score across different home equity release options is 64%, with the 75th percentile score being approximately 79%. Financial planners appeared to underestimate their knowledge. For example, 54% of planners rank their knowledge of reverse mortgages as very high to extremely high compared to an average score of 60% for reverse mortgage questions. Using Tobit regression, we show that several demographic characteristics explain financial literacy total scores as well as reverse mortgage scores. Also, we show that financial planners with high overconfidence bias scored less on the literacy questions. Finally, the planners specializing in retirement planning tend to have a high literacy score. |
| Keywords: | Financial Literacy, ; Financial Planners, ; Home Equity |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_236 |
| By: | Ezio Micelli; Giulia Giliberto; Eleonora Righetto |
| Abstract: | Deep retrofits are essential to reducing energy consumption and emissions, aligning with the European EPBD's goals for energy-efficient buildings. However, the financial viability of such interventions remains uncertain. The aim is to assess the financial feasibility of extensive retrofits using the MESA business model, with a focus on off-site production processes, a unique feature of the Energiesprong. Energiesprong is a pioneering approach to residential building energy retrofit that maximises time and operating costs by utilising off-site renovation technologies and long-term energy performance contracts. The research evaluates two primary demand profiles in two urban contexts with distinct real estate dynamics, using net present value (NPV) analysis to assess the financial feasibility relative to initial investment costs. The findings indicate that, despite notable benefits such as value proposition for higher energy efficiency, deep retrofits are not financially viable under current costs and technologies without upfront external contributions. The research further incorporates the impacts of economies of scale and technological learning, which are central to the MESA-Energiesprong model. It suggests a learning curve that links reduced construction costs to the growing number of renovated buildings. The dynamic evaluation highlights the value of the construction cost at which the retrofit becomes financially feasible and that, without government contributions, the financial viability of deep retrofits could improve over time as the sector scales. These findings provide policymakers with valuable insights, aiding the development of more effective public policies that promote building efficiency through off-site construction and optimise contributions distribution based on regional variations. |
| Keywords: | Business Models; Energy efficiency retrofit; Green premium price; off-site construction |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_167 |
| By: | Sweta Byahut; Jay Mittal |
| Abstract: | Planners are increasingly concerned with the public health impacts of extreme heat. Many Indian cities and states are implementing Heat Actions Plans (HAP). Ahmedabad city in Gujarat state in western India is one of the hottest cities with a daily maximum temperature of 113oF from March-May. Following an intensely hot May in 2010 that resulted in the excess deaths of 1344 people, the city adopted a HAP in 2013, making it the first South Asian city to comprehensively address heat health threats, effectively manage heat stress, and reduce heat related mortality. Following Ahmedabad’s successes, at least a dozen Indian cities and several states have adopted HAP or are in the process of doing so. This study analyzes the first few Heat Actions Plans of Indian cities that are publicly available. The initial plan evaluation criteria are based on the ""National Guidelines for Preparation of Heat Action Plans – Prevention and Management of Heatwaves"" by the National Disaster Management Authority of India (NDMA). The plans evaluated in this study include Ahmedabad, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Vadodara, and Surat (all from Gujarat state), Chennai, Bhubaneshwar, Hazaribagh, Delhi, Gorakhpur, Jodhpur, and others. Preliminary analysis indicates that the HAPs are action oriented, focusing on preparedness at the local level for dealing with heat-related health eventualities. They emphasize reducing the negative health impact of extreme heat by health care system capacity building. This includes training local health professionals to enable them to recognize and treat heat related illnesses (heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat/sun stroke, heat rash, etc.). Plans focus on establishing early warning and alerts systems and emphasize public awareness and community outreach programs with multi-pronged communications campaigns for communicating the health risks of heat waves (hoardings/billboards, print advertisements, pamphlets, text messages, etc.). Only a few plans identify cool roofs as a cooling strategy and their widespread adoption in HAPs is lacking. India’s NDMA identifies cool roofs as a cost-effective mitigation strategy to reduce heat stress and provides guidance on their implementation. Plans range from 19 pages (Hazaribagh) to 115 pages (Bhubaneshwar). Most plans do not include information on climate change related heat impacts or the effects of urban heat island on human health and well-being. Many plans also do not include community assessment or identify vulnerable and higher risk populations population groups such as low-income and slum communities, elderly and children, laborers, and informal sector workers. In general, plans do not address social and spatial inequities. Public health departments are at the forefront of heat action planning efforts. Some plans include an inter-agency response plan and coordination in field, but opportunities exist for improving collaboration between municipal public health and planning departments, and to better connect planners and mainstream planning processes (development/master plans, neighborhood plans) to HAPs. Wider collaboration could include public institutions, private entities, NGOs, and civil society. Most plans do not include urban planning or built environment strategies, indicating opportunities for municipal planners to meaningfully incorporate low-cost strategies for urban cooling through vegetation, green infrastructure, land use, development regulations, cool roofs, and building codes. Cities lack feedback systems for assessing impact or reviewing and updating plans on a regular basis. Plan implementation also needs to be monitored to better understand their overall impact. In the next stage, this study will be expanded to include additional Indian cities and semi-structured interviews will be conducted with policy makers, public health professionals, planners, and local experts involved in planning and implementation of HAPs to better understand the processes, local capacity and constraints, and inter-agency collaborative efforts. |
| Keywords: | Climate adaptation; Heat Action Plans; Indian cities |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_31 |
| By: | Landersø, Rasmus; Karlson, Kristian Bernt (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies intergenerational educational mobility among immigrants and descendants in Denmark for cohorts born between 1965 and 1990. At first glance, the data suggests that immigrants experience higher mobility than native Danes, but this pattern is driven by low coverage and poor data quality of parental education information in administrative registers. Among immigrants with the most reliable data, mobility patterns closely resemble those of natives. Auxiliary analyses using representative survey data corroborate this finding. Moreover, including immigrants in population-wide mobility estimates—given their artificially high relative mobility—attenuates trends in estimated mobility, especially for cohorts born in the 1980s. |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sq6e3_v1 |
| By: | Joachim B. Kraus |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The capital raising and dissemination of companies have been examined in numerous studies, but typically only through sector-independent analyses. However, there are few studies focusing on the effects of macroeconomic variables on newer sectors such as PropTech (Property Technology). This paper aims to identify relevant macroeconomic drivers for this sector and complement them with specific factors from the fields of technology and real estate.Design/methodology/approach – Multiple linear regression and a Fixed-Effects-Model (FE) are applied to conduct the analysis. The first analysis is based on a sample of 220 observations from 22 countries during the period from 2014 to 2023. Each observation represents the annual volume of venture capital (VC) investments in PropTech per country. The second analysis includes 98 observations from 98 countries, where each observation corresponds to the current number of PropTech companies per million inhabitants in each country.Findings – This study confirms that macroeconomic variables significantly influence the amount of invested capital. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that technological infrastructure (measured by the number of telephone connections) and the house price index have a positive effect on PropTech investments or the proliferation of such companies.Practical Implications – For PropTech companies and their investors, understanding the interplay between macroeconomic variables, technological advancements, and the real estate sector is essential. The direct relationships identified in this study play a crucial role in providing a holistic understanding of how technological and real estate factors impact the PropTech sector.Originality/value – This study addresses a research gap by examining the relationship between factors influencing the dissemination and investment in PropTech. The integration of cross-sectoral and sector-specific variables provides a novel approach that expands existing research perspectives. |
| Keywords: | Digitalization; Fixed-Effects Regression; proptech; venture capital |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_41 |