|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Raian Kudashev (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Pierre M. Picard (DEM, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of congestion relief in a spatial general equilibrium model of Luxembourg and its cross-border commuting zone. Using traffic speed data, we apply a difference-in-differences design on Luxembourgs highways to measure congestion severity and identify choke points. We then simulate counterfactual scenarios where highway speeds are set to free-flow levels and track the resulting changes in output, welfare, and fiscal revenues. Economic output rises in Luxembourg City and Esch, while other cities lose production but gain in resident welfare. For residents of Luxembourg City, we estimate a short-run welfare loss of €1, 140 per person per year, which becomes a welfare gain of €3, 490 in the long run after population reallocation. When accounting for migration from the outside economy, the welfare effect in Luxembourg City turns negative at €8, 110 per person per year. The elimination of congestion induces a fiscal gain of €2.50 billion per year in the short run, €1.18 billion in the long run, and €7.04 billion when accounting for migration inflows. |
| Keywords: | "Road congestion, cross-border employment, land prices, taxes, quantitative spatial economics." |
| JEL: | H73 R13 R14 R23 R31 R41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-17 |
| By: | Simone Moriconi (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 - LEM, Institut Convergences Migrations); Mikaël Pasternak (Univ. Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management, UMR 9221 - LEM, Institut Convergences Migration); Ahmed Trita (Univ. University of Poitiers, LEP, UM6P-ABS Chaire EIEA, FR CNRS TEPP, Institut Convergences Migrations); Nadiya Ukrayinchuk (Univ. Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management, UMR 9221 - LEM, Institut Convergences Migration) |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on intergenerational social mobility among immigrants and natives in France. Using linked parent–child data from censuses, we introduce an individual-level metric - the Intergenerational Rank Difference (IRD) - that measures upward and downward mobility relative to the highest-ranked parent across both education and predicted income. We document a robust mobility premium for second-generation immigrants: on average, they achieve a predicted income rank six percentiles higher than observationally equivalent natives, with the advantage most pronounced among women, children of two immigrant parents, and those from disadvantaged households. Educational gains explain part of this differential, but labormarket advancement plays the larger role. Internal migration emerges as an important channel, as immigrant movers disproportionately relocate to high-mobility areas. Finally, a spatial analysis highlights substantial heterogeneity: some local areas act as “lands of opportunity, ” while others are associated with stagnation or decline. These findings underscore the interplay of individual characteristics and local contexts in shaping long-run integrat |
| Keywords: | Migration economics, Intergenerational social mobility, Human capital |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J62 J71 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e202501 |
| By: | Raian Kudashev (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Pierre M. Picard (DEM, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | Cross-border housing markets have become more prevalent in Europe since the establishment of the European Union. Using data from the functional urban area of Luxembourg, we document significant floorspace price discontinuities at the borders of Luxembourg with Belgium, France, and Germany. Employing a quantitative spatial urban model and spatial regression discontinuity techniques, we show that differences in tax rates and tax importation account for 9% and 17% of the observed price jump, respectively. The remaining price discrepancy is explained by differences in productivity and amenities. |
| Keywords: | Tax, cross-border employment, land rents, quantitative urban economics. |
| JEL: | H73 R13 R14 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-16 |
| By: | Max Stick; Feng Hou; Haozhen Zhang |
| Abstract: | An increase in the number of international students and a greater need for affordable housing have prompted questions about their housing experiences. This article examines the prevalence of living in unsuitable housing for international students enumerated in the 2021 Census of Population long-form questionnaire and provides comparisons with Canadian-born students across municipalities. The results indicated that international students were more likely to live in unsuitable housing than Canadian-born students. However, there was a large variation across municipalities in the proportion of international students living in unsuitable housing. In the top 10 municipalities with the highest number of international students, the rates of living in unsuitable housing ranged from 25% to 63% for international students, about 13 to 45 percentage points higher than that for Canadian-born students aged 18 to 24. Furthermore, there were large disparities in unsuitable housing rates across international student groups from different source countries. Students from India were more likely to live in unsuitable housing compared with those from other countries. In Brampton and Surrey, the municipalities with the largest shares of Indian students, the proportions of international students in unsuitable housing were the highest. The difference in the source-country composition of international students accounted for most of the variation across municipalities in international students’ housing suitability. Canada welcomes a large number of international studentsNote each year from various countries, and the number of arrivals has increased over the past two decades (Choi, Crossman & Hou, 2021; Crossman et al., 2022). The increase in the number of international students and a greater need for affordable housing have prompted questions about their housing experiences (Pottie-Sherman et al., 2023). International students have reported difficulties finding affordable and suitable housing because of cultural differences, language barriers, lack of familiarity with the Canadian housing system and regulations, and other obstacles (El Masri & Khan, 2022). As international students may have unique housing experiences, it is important to understand how this population fares in terms of housing conditions (Pottie-Sherman et al., 2023). There may also be geographic differences in the housing conditions of international students across municipalities because of variations in regional housing markets (see Statistics Canada, 2022). Furthermore, international students from different source countries may vary in their financial resources and cultural norms regarding living arrangements. Using data from the 2021 Census of Population, this article examines the prevalence of living in unsuitable housingNote for international students enumerated in the long-form census questionnaireNote and provides comparisons with Canadian-born studentsNote across municipalities (or census subdivisions [CSDs]).Note Since the long-form census questionnaire did not collect information for people living in collective dwellings, including school residences, this article covers only international students living in private households. Data are shown separately for the top 10 CSDs with the highest number of international students and the 5 CSDs with the highest proportion of international students by their share of the total population of Canadians.Note This article further examines the variation in housing suitability of international students by their source country and whether such variation is associated with differences in international students’ housing suitability across municipalities. |
| Keywords: | housing, international students, international students, affordable housing |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400500001e |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | In France and beyond, e-commerce sparks an urban logistics crisis: vans, cargo bikes, and scattered parcels choke streets, while local shops vanish. Convenience collides with physical, social, and environmental limits, creating congestion, noise, and stress for residents. Cities face a critical situation—adaptation is urgent, or urban life risks becoming unlivable. As the author underlines, structural vulnerabilities demand immediate and decisive attention. |
| Keywords: | Logistics apocalypse, Urban deliveries, City logistics |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05324290 |
| By: | Hannah Kotula (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); David C. Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper summarises distinct housing and demographic patterns across neighbourhoods in New Zealand's main urban areas, using data from the 2018 Census of Population and Dwellings. It uses exploratory factor analysis to classify neighbourhood types. It contributes background information for a broader research programme - WERO: Working to End Racial Oppression. |
| Keywords: | Housing markets; housing-market discrimination |
| JEL: | J15 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:mnotes:note_53 |
| By: | Ando, Tomohiro; Bailey, Natalia; Rambaldi, Alicia; Shukla, Jyoti; Tirumala, Raghu; Tiwari, Piyush |
| Abstract: | Climate change increasingly affects housing markets, yet distributional impacts are rarely examined beyond mean-based analyses. Using quantile regression on over 500, 000 Australian property transactions (2015–2020), this study shows that affordable housing is disproportionately devalued by bushfire and flood risks, while resilience factors such as altitude and elevated coastal proximity command premiums in higher-end markets. These results reveal a “vulnerability trap” for low-income households and a “resilience divide” favoring affluent buyers, underscoring the need for distribution-sensitive climate adaptation housing policies. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation, Housing markets, Quantile regression, Resilience, Spatial Inequality, Vulnerability |
| JEL: | R30 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126530 |
| By: | Flora Roumpani; Joel Dearden; Alan Wilson |
| Abstract: | The two-tier Lowry model brings dynamic simulations of population and employment directly into the planning process. By linking regional modelling with neighbourhood design, the framework enables planners to explore how alternative planning scenarios may evolve over time. The upper tier captures regional flows of people, jobs, and services, while the lower tier allocates these to fine-grain zones such as neighbourhoods or parcels. Implemented in CityEngine, the approach allows interactive visualisation and evaluation of multi-scale scenarios. A case study in South Yorkshire (UK) illustrates how regional forecasts can be translated into local design responses, connecting quantitative modelling with 3D spatial planning. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.20992 |
| By: | Önnerfors, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the methodology for geocoding historical Swedish census data from 1878-1950, developed as part of the research project "Cities and Socioeconomic Segregation in the Long Term, 1880-2017." While Sweden's historical demographic data is renowned for its quality and coverage, geocoding this data presents unique challenges that cannot be solved using modern geocoding APIs. The primary obstacles include temporal changes in address-coordinate relationships, street relocations, and the complete disappearance of spatial units through demolition and redevelopment. Historical Swedish census data varies in geographic precision, ranging from village-level information in rural areas to property-level detail in urban centers like Stockholm. The paper proposes a solution based on constructing a "canonical" historical address and property database that incorporates temporal dimensions, allowing for accurate matching at specific time points. This database is compiled from multiple sources and validated against georeferenced historical city maps. The methodology addresses the distinction between property-level (block name and number) and address-level (street name and house number) geocoding, with property coordinates proving more temporally stable. Manual data collection and quality assurance are essential components of the process, particularly for areas subject to major urban redevelopment such as Stockholm's Klara neighborhood. This approach enables accurate geocoding of historical census data while maintaining spatial precision appropriate for demographic analysis of urban segregation patterns over more than a century. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bfn24_v1 |
| By: | Yasmin Gure; Garnett Picot; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | This study asks whether there were significant differences in the economic outcomes of government‑assisted refugees (GARs), based on the size of the city to which they were designated. The analysis was conducted for both those remaining in the designated cities (stayers) and those moving to other locations (movers). As supported by previous literature, the study found that the likelihood of moving was much higher among GARs who were assigned to smaller communities, compared with those assigned to large cities. Nonetheless, among GAR stayers, those assigned to Toronto had the lowest employment incidence and annual earnings, while stayers in medium-sized and small cities reported better economic outcomes. Similar patterns were observed among GAR movers, where those who chose to move to gateway cities (Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver) had the lowest employment incidence and annual earnings, while those who moved to a smaller city tended to report stronger labour market outcomes. The regression analysis found that the majority (89%) of these differences across city size could be explained by the city’s employment rate, as well as the source region of GARs. These explanatory variables also accounted for about half of the differences in annual earnings by city size. |
| Keywords: | refugees, secondary migration, regional retention, earnings |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400300002e |
| By: | Francesco Ferlenga |
| Abstract: | Dominant groups have long used public monuments to project their power and narrative. How do divisive monuments affect where dissenting groups choose to live? I show that the construction of Confederate monuments in the U.S. South—supported by whites and opposed by Black Americans—reduced Black population shares via out-migration. To isolate the causal effect of monuments from local ideology, I employ an instrumental variable strategy based on connection to a key monument producer. An online experiment corroborates the historical analysis, showing that Black respondents today are less likely to accept job offers in hypothetical cities visually associated with Confederate monuments. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, divisive symbols, monuments |
| JEL: | D72 J15 J18 N32 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1520 |
| By: | David N. Figlio; Umut Özek |
| Abstract: | Cellphone bans in schools have become a popular policy in recent years in the United States, yet very little is known about their effects on student outcomes. In this study, we try to fill this gap by examining the causal effects of bans on student test scores, suspensions, and absences using detailed student-level data from Florida and a quasi-experimental research strategy relying upon differences in pre-ban cellphone use by students, as measured by building-level Advan data. Several important findings emerge. First, we show that the enforcement of cellphone bans in schools led to a significant increase in student suspensions in the short-term, especially among Black students, but disciplinary actions began to dissipate after the first year, potentially suggesting a new steady state after an initial adjustment period. Second, we find significant improvements in student test scores in the second year of the ban after that initial adjustment period. Third, the findings suggest that cellphone bans in schools significantly reduce student unexcused absences, an effect that may explain a large fraction of the test score gains. The effects of cellphone bans are more pronounced in middle and high school settings where student smartphone ownership is more common. |
| JEL: | I28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34388 |
| By: | Fanze Kong; Jiayi Sun; Shuangquan Xie |
| Abstract: | One of the most significant findings in the study of spatial Solow-Swan models is the emergence of economic agglomeration, in which economic activities concentrate in specific regions. Such agglomeration provides a fundamental mechanism driving the spatial patterns of urbanization, labor migration, productivity growth, and resource allocation. In this paper, we consider the one-dimensional spatial Solow-Swan model with capital-induced labor migration, which captures the dynamic interaction between labor and capital through migration and accumulation. Focusing on the regime of sufficiently small capital diffusivity, we first construct an interior spike (spiky economic agglomeration) quasi-equilibrium. Next, we perform the linear stability of the corresponding spike equilibrium by using a hybrid asymptotic and numerical method. We show that a single interior spike remains stable for small reaction-time constants but undergoes a Hopf bifurcation when the constant is sufficiently large, leading to oscillations in spike height (economic fluctuation). Finally, we derive a differential-algebraic system to capture the slow drift motion of quasi-equilibrium (core-periphery shift). Numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical studies and reveal some intriguing yet unexplained dynamics. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.19204 |
| By: | David N. Figlio; Umut Özek |
| Abstract: | Cellphone bans in schools have become a popular policy in recent years in the United States, yet very little is known about their effects on student outcomes. In this study, we try to fill this gap by examining the causal effects of bans on student test scores, suspensions, and absences using detailed student-level data from Florida. Several important findings emerge. First, we show that the enforcement of cellphone bans in schools led to a significant increase in student suspensions in the short-term, especially among Black students, but disciplinary actions began to dissipate after the first year, potentially suggesting a new steady state after an initial adjustment period. Second, we find significant improvements in student test scores in the second year of the ban after that initial adjustment period. Third, the findings suggest that cellphone bans in schools significantly reduce student unexcused absences, an effect that may explain a large fraction of the test score gains. The effects of cellphone bans are more pronounced in middle and high school settings where student smartphone ownership is more common. |
| Keywords: | cellphone bans in schools, student test scores, disciplinary incidents, absences, human capital |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12211 |
| By: | Aneta Bonikowska; Tomasz Handler; Marc Frenette |
| Abstract: | Given the large differences in educational attainment observed across non-Indigenous population groups in Canada, understanding when these differences emerge and what may explain them is an important first step in informing policy discussions on the issue. Using the British Columbia kindergarten to Grade 12 dataset, the Postsecondary Student Information System, the 2016 Census of Population, and the T1 Family File tax data, this study follows several cohorts of Grade 9 students in British Columbia over time to explore differences between population groups, by gender, in the probability and timing of high school graduation and enrolment in academic postsecondary programs. The analysis assesses the extent to which differences in high school course marks (Grade 10 English, science and math) and other factors, such as adjusted parental income and immigrant status, account for differences in these outcomes between population groups. On-time high school graduation rates varied by upwards of 10 percentage points across population groups for each gender, with lower rates registered by Latin American, Black and West Asian students, and higher rates by Japanese, Korean, Chinese and South Asian students. In all population groups, girls were more likely than boys to graduate high school on time. Given an extra year, the graduation rate increased among all groups, most notably among Black boys. For boys and girls, enrolment rates in postsecondary programs were lowest among Latin American, Black and White students, and highest among Chinese, Korean and South Asian students. Differences in Grade 10 course marks explained a substantial share of the gaps in education outcomes between many of the population groups and White students. By contrast, adjusted parental income differences explained smaller shares of the gaps than differences in course marks did, in most cases. Comparing the standardized test scores for literacy of Latin American and Black students with those of White students in grades 4 and 7, and provincial exam marks in Grade 10 English, showed that skill gaps implied by the lower (relative to White students) course marks obtained by Latin American and Black students in Grade 10 may have existed at least as early as Grade 4. Parental income may have exerted an indirect effect on educational outcomes through its influence on academic performance (though this study cannot shed light on this). |
| Keywords: | high school graduation, postsecondary enrolment, course marks, test scores, population group |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400200003e |
| By: | Calsamiglia, Caterina (IPEG); Fawaz, Yarine (CEMFI, Madrid); Fernández-Kranz, Daniel (IE University); Lee, Junhee |
| Abstract: | Prior research has found that boys often outperform girls in high-stakes math exams, raising the question of whether these gender differences under pressure stem from nature or nurture. This relative female disadvantage can influence access to selective university programs and subsequent career paths. Using administrative and survey data linked to a lottery-based school assignment system, we show that this disadvantage is reversed in single-sex schools: girls randomly assigned to SS schools devote more effort, outperform boys in high-stakes math exams, and have a higher likelihood of enrolling in university STEM degrees (excluding biology). These positive effects come at a cost to well-being in terms of higher stress and worse mental health. These effects are not driven by differences in teacher gender or school resources due to public versus private management. Our findings are consistent with theories emphasizing the social costs of norm violation: in single-sex schools, girls are freed from peer norms that may otherwise discourage overt academic ambition, allowing them to sustain higher effort in competitive and male-dominated domains. |
| Keywords: | Korea, high-stakes exams, education, nurture, single-sex schooling, random assignment, gender, gender gap, natural experiment |
| JEL: | I21 J16 I24 D91 J24 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18208 |
| By: | Ana Isabel López Garciá; Seung-hun Lee; Juan P. Figueroa Mansur |
| Abstract: | Do criminal groups which help maintain order strengthen the fiscal contract or weaken it? This paper examines how the presence of organized-crime groups shapes Mexican municipalities' ability to collect revenue, deliver public goods, and earn citizens' trust. Survey data show that residents living in neighbourhoods home to organized crime report lower levels of trust in local government, regardless of whether those groups provide 'order' or engage in extortion and violence. |
| Keywords: | Local government, Trust, Fiscal policy, Public goods, Crime |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-72 |
| By: | Tahsin Mehdi; René Morissette |
| Abstract: | In May 2023, 20.1% of Canadians usually worked most of the time from home, down from 24.3% in May 2021 and almost three times the rate of 7.1% observed in May 2016. While this increase in work from home likely reduced commuting and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by transportation (Morissette, Deng and Messacar, 2021), it also put downward pressure on the revenues and ridership of urban public transit systems, many of which experienced deficits in recent years (Griffin, 2023). Partly as a result of telework growth, the number of passenger-trips in urban transit systems in September 2023 was 18% lower than in the same month in 2019. |
| Keywords: | public transit, work from home, commuting, greenhouse gas |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400100002e |
| By: | Luisito Bertinelli (Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg); Evie Graus (Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg); Jean-François Maystadt (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Silvia Peracchi (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of road access on child health in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1980 and 2012 by combining geolocated data on child anthropometric outcomes with spatial data on road networks. To address endogeneity, we employ an instrumental variable approach based on the inconsequential units framework, constructing hypothetical road networks that connect historical cities and active mines. Our results show that closer proximity to paved roads significantly improves child health. The main mechanisms operate through improved healthcare access and utilization, higher household wealth, early signs of structural transformation, and cropland expansion. We find no evidence that these gains are offset by adverse environmental or epidemiological effects of improved road access. Overall, the findings underscore the role of road infrastructure in fostering development across Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | roads, Sub-Saharan Africa, child health, causal analysis |
| JEL: | O15 I15 O18 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2025017 |
| By: | Lo, Ashley Wan-Tzu; Kono, Tatsuhito |
| Abstract: | We examine how residential and work locations affect gender differences in time-use burden among homogeneous couples. We theoretically derive gendered values of time (VOTs) by location in spatial equilibrium. We show that (i) changes in VOT according to residential and work locations are determined by shadow prices of time and budget, (ii) households residing closer to the CBD have higher VOTs, and (iii) housework division varies by location, and VOTs differ between spouses spatially. Simulations substantiate these findings. Furthermore, our stated preference experiment confirms that VOT varies with residential location, after controlling for gender and household characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Gender difference, Value of time, Time allocation, Housework, Residential location, Homogeneous households |
| JEL: | D10 R20 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126319 |
| By: | Jenkins, Kush DBA (Northern Virginia Community College); Whitfield, Carlos; Johnson, Anthony |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the economic effects of the Montgomery Bus Boycott, an event often celebrated for its moral and social significance, yet underexplored in terms of its fiscal implications. We assess the hypothesis that the Boycott had no measurable impact on the City of Montgomery’s public finances and find compelling evidence to the contrary. Our analysis demonstrates that the Boycott significantly contracted municipal revenue and simultaneously escalated public expenditures, particularly in policing and fire services, driven by the city's "get tough" policy response. Using historical financial records and time-series forecasting (ARIMA), we quantify the growing fiscal strain experienced by the city. Although Montgomery maintained budget surpluses during the Boycott period, projections indicate a rising probability of deficits had the protest continued beyond its resolution. These findings highlight the economic leverage wielded by organized civil resistance and underscore the material costs incurred by municipal governments when confronting movements for racial justice. |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yguf9_v1 |
| By: | Bergantino, Angela Stefania (University of Bari); Clemente, Antonello (University of Bari); Iandolo, Stefano (University of Salerno); Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution and determinants of skill-specific internal mobility among Italian citizens by urban–rural origin. Using administrative data from the Registry of Transfer of Residence (ADELE), which records the universe of skill-specific bilateral moves across more than 700 millions potential municipality pairs between 2012 and 2022, we document distinct trends in residential mobility for college-educated and non-college-educated citizens. We then assess the role of economic and non-economic factors in shaping these flows, employing a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator with an extensive set of destination and origin-by-nest fixed effects. Our findings show that low-skilled movers respond more strongly to economic factors, while high-skilled movers are respond more to non-economic ones, with the urban–rural divide at origin amplifying these differences. Moreover, we find that after the COVID-19 pandemic, economic drivers became less relevant, whereas non-economic factors gained importance. Overall, this study highlights that, similar to international migration, the drivers of internal mobility are inherently skill-specific. |
| Keywords: | Italy, urban-rural, human capital, migration, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18203 |
| By: | Debasis Mishra; Soumendu Sarkar; Arunava Sen; Jay Sethuraman; Sonal Yadav |
| Abstract: | The Right to Free and Compulsory Education Act (2009) (RTE) of the Government of India prescribes student-teacher ratios for state-run schools. One method advocated by the Act to achieve its goals is the redeployment of teachers from surplus to deficit (in teacher strength) schools. We consider a model where teachers can either remain in their initially assigned schools or be transferred to a deficit school in their acceptable set. The planner's objective is specified in terms of the post-transfer deficit vector that can be achieved. We show that there exists a transfer whose post-transfer deficit vector Lorenz dominates all achievable post-transfer deficit vectors. We provide a two-stage algorithm to derive the Lorenz-dominant post-transfer deficit vector, and show that this algorithm is strategy-proof for teachers. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.18708 |
| By: | Gianmarco Daniele; Marco De Simoni; Domenico J. Marchetti; Giovanna Marcolongo; Paolo Pinotti |
| Abstract: | We show that credit constraints significantly increase the risk that firms are infiltrated by organized crime, defined as the covert involvement of criminal organizations in corporate decision-making. Using confidential data on criminal investigations, credit ratings, and loan histories for the universe of Italian firms, we find that a downgrade to substandard credit status reduces credit availability by 30% over five years and increases the probability of infiltration by 5%, relative to comparable firms. A local randomization design comparing firms just above and below the downgrade threshold confirms this result. The effect is pervasive across sectors and regions, but particularly strong in real estate, where the probability of infiltration rises by 10% following a downgrade. Infiltrated firms also display higher survival rates than other downgraded firms, despite similar declines in employment and revenues. These findings suggest that organized crime can serve as a financial backstop – sustaining non-viable businesses and potentially redirecting their strategies to serve criminal interests. |
| Keywords: | organized crime, firms, bank credit |
| JEL: | G32 K42 L25 O17 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12219 |
| By: | Cronin, Christopher J.; Harris, Matthew C.; Ziebarth, Nicolas R. |
| Abstract: | We study how public school teachers use paid sick leave. Most US sick leave schemes operate as individualized credit accounts: Paid leave is earned, and unused leave accumulates. We construct a unique dataset of daily leave balances and behavior among 982 teachers for 2010-2018. Sick leave use increases during flu season, and evidence indicates that the average teacher does not use sick leave for leisure though some subsets of teachers (e.g., the young and inexperienced) do. Usage increases with leave balance; the elasticity is around 0.4. Further, teachers with higher balances are less likely to work sick, particularly during flu season. |
| Keywords: | sick leave, teacher, presenteeism, moral hazard, labor supply |
| JEL: | I12 I13 I18 I28 J22 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:330324 |
| By: | Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study whether local spending of intergovernmental grants is influenced by mayoral elections in the grant receiving municipality. We exploit the implementation of the German federal government's second economic stimulus package of 2009 (K2) in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as natural experiment. In the context of this package, all municipalities in Baden-Wuerttemberg received lump-sum grants for local public investment spending. Applying difference-in-differences and instrumental variables approaches to ensure exogeneity of the decision of mayors to run for re-election, we provide evidence that, in the absence of an election, K2 grants led to an increase in a municipality's spending on long-run investment, while municipalities in which the incumbent mayor stood for re-election used grants to increase both, long-run and rapidly visible short-run investment expenditures. Moreover, we provide evidence in favor of the flypaper effect for all municipalities, except for those in which the incumbent mayor did not seek re-election. |
| Keywords: | Intergovernmental Grants, Flypaper Effect, Political Budget Cycles |
| JEL: | H30 H72 H77 H81 E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:330329 |
| By: | James Gauthier; Carter McCormack |
| Abstract: | Barriers to important life cycle milestones and transitions have intensified in Canada. Sustained food inflation, elevated housing prices, and increasingly unaffordable rental costs across much of the country are casting a shadow over the homeownership dream for many households—and, in particular, for young families. Young Canadians recently reported that they are less satisfied and less hopeful about the future (Statistics Canada, 2023). In 2022, concerns over rising prices led about one third of youth to reconsider buying a home or moving to a new rental. The current environment of higher borrowing costs and elevated housing and rental costs has different implications for Canadian households depending on where they are in their economic life cycle. This article provides an overview of household balance sheets and key financial metrics for households whose primary earner is less than 35 years of age of as they adjust to current market conditions and begin to build financial resilience. |
| Keywords: | Housing, wealth, debt, inflation, housing pressures |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400300004e |
| By: | Max Stick; Christoph Schimmele; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | For many Canadian households, the home is the primary asset and means of wealth accumulation. This study analyzes the trajectories of homeownership and co-residence with parents among Canadian-born racialized population groups born from the early 1970s to the early 1990s, using data from the six most recent Canadian censuses. The findings indicate that disparities in homeownership among these groups persisted throughout the lifetime. Depending on the birth cohort and age group, the rate of living in an owned home was higher for South Asians and Chinese (5 to 24 percentage points) and lower for Blacks and Latin Americans (3 to 19 percentage points) when compared with White Canadians. At younger ages, these disparities were primarily due to differences in co-residence with parents and parental homeownership. Across racialized groups in their 20s, the highest rates of co-residence with parents were observed among South Asians (86% to 91%), Chinese (79% to 84%), and Filipinos (82% to 85%). Black and Latin American youth were more likely to leave their parental home earlier and were least likely to own their own homes when starting their households. The results suggest that access to parental housing resources in early adulthood has long-term implications for housing inequality. |
| Keywords: | homeownership, housing trajectories, racialized groups, second generation |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202301200003e |
| By: | Stephanie Kang; Francesco Ferlenga |
| Abstract: | We study how expanding immigrants' rights affects their political and social integration by leveraging Romania's 2007 EU accession, which granted Romanian immigrants in Italy municipal voting and residency rights. Using municipality-level event studies, we find: (1) Enfranchisement increased the election of Romanian-born councilors — especially in competitive races — despite limited changes in candidacy rates. It also increased Romanian turnout, suggesting that electoral gains stem from an expanded voter base. An instrumented difference-in-differences analysis shows this is driven by pre-existing Romanian residents, not new arrivals. (2) Consent to organ donation rose among Romanians post-2007, indicating that the expansion of rights extends to prosocial behavior. (3) Nonetheless, immigrant presence continues to raise support for right-leaning parties and security spending while reducing social spending, highlighting persistent native backlash that outweighs immigrant political influence. |
| Keywords: | enfranchisement, migrant integration |
| JEL: | D72 J15 J18 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1521 |
| By: | Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | The impact of immigration on the destination country is contingent not only on the number of immigrants admitted but also on how many of them choose to stay and actively engage in the labour market. Concerns have been raised regarding a potential increase in immigrants leaving Canada (e.g., Keung, 2023; Makkar, 2023). These concerns stem primarily from personal interviews gauging immigrants’ perceptions and expectations. While the emigration of immigrants is not a new phenomenon, and international migration has generally become less permanent, there is a lack of national data to ascertain whether immigrants are currently more inclined to leave Canada, compared with earlier periods. |
| Keywords: | immigration, tax filling, employment, emigration |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400500004e |
| By: | Nina Biljanovska; Eduardo Espuny Diaz; Amir Kermani; Rui C. Mano |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how housing market overvaluation—measured by the price-to-rent ratio and its deviations from long-term trends—affects the transmission of monetary policy. Using U.S. metropolitan-level data and three measures of monetary policy shocks, we find that house prices respond more strongly to policy rate changes in overvalued markets. Examining buyer heterogeneity, we show that investor demand, proxied by non-owner-occupied purchases, declines more sharply after monetary tightening in these markets. These results are consistent with models of extrapolative beliefs and suggest that monetary policy can serve a stabilizing role during housing booms. |
| JEL: | D84 E52 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34404 |
| By: | Max Stick; Maciej Karpinski; Christoph Schimmele; Amélie Arsenault |
| Abstract: | This study used data from the 2020 General Social Survey to examine the social connectedness of immigrant women to Canadian society. The size and composition of immigrant women’s personal networks varied by their sociodemographic, immigrant-specific and residential characteristics, and by population group. Most subgroups of immigrant women had smaller social networks than their Canadian-born counterparts, although for some, the difference was small. Most of the differences between immigrants and Canadian-born women were related to weak ties, and for most subgroups there were no or fewer differences in the number of strong ties that composed their networks. Most subgroups of immigrant women had more inter-ethnic friends than Canadian-born women, even though their networks were mostly homogenous in ethnic composition. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant women, social networks, social capital, immigrant integration |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400400006e |
| By: | Holzman, Brian; Wang, Shuyu; Lewis, Bethany; Ma, Hao |
| Abstract: | Purpose--Texas House Bill 5 (2013) introduced the Foundation High School Program, requiring students to select an endorsement—a curricular concentration similar to a major. Although intended to expand flexibility and align coursework with college and workforce pathways, the STEM endorsement may function as a new form of tracking. Guided by Oakes and colleagues’ work on tracking and detracking and by Domina et al.’s application of categorical inequality theory to education, this study examines which students complete a STEM endorsement and how this choice shapes college enrollment outcomes. Research Methods--We combine a content analysis of Texas college-admissions requirements with administrative data from the Houston Independent School District. Logistic and multinomial models estimate predictors of STEM endorsement completion and college choice, and nonlinear variance decomposition analyses assess how STEM–non-STEM differences in college enrollment are explained by background characteristics. Findings--The STEM endorsement aligns closely with selective college admissions. Academic factors strongly predict STEM completion, and while the endorsement is associated with enrollment at selective colleges, this relationship is largely explained by prior academic achievement. High-achieving students are more likely to pursue the STEM endorsement, which accounts for its link to selective college enrollment. Implications--The STEM endorsement operates less as a pathway for broadening opportunity and more as a marker of academic prestige. As a surface-level policy reform, the endorsement system reconstitutes familiar tracking dynamics under a new label, reinforcing educational stratification by privileging students with stronger preparation. |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:32mhv_v2 |
| By: | Stark, Oded (University of Bonn); Byra, Lukasz (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | In “Immigration, search and redistribution: A quantitative assessment of native welfare, ” a paper by Battisti et al. published in the August 2018 issue of the Journal of the European Economic Association, the authors inquire about how migration to 20 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries affects the welfare of the countries’ native workers. We raise several concerns regarding the analytical and the empirical parts of the Battisti et al.’s inquiry that bear on this effect. Calibration of a corrected model reveals that our concerns affect measurably the empirical results regarding the impacts on the welfare of native workers of skill-neutral migration and of migration by low-skill workers. A particular concern is that our calibration of a corrected model yields estimates of the tax rate on workers’ wages that are far too high to be considered feasible. We calibrate a version of the corrected model, which involves “reasonable” tax rates on wages and a budget deficit. The results yielded by this counterfactual version lend support to the results of the corrected model regarding the negative impact of skill-neutral migration and of migration by low-skill workers on the welfare of native workers. |
| Keywords: | recalibration of labor market model, GDP identity, sharing rule of firm-worker match surplus when wages are taxed, unemployment in a migration-destination country, welfare of native workers, migration to OECD countries, skill-neutral migration, migration by low-skill workers |
| JEL: | F22 I31 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18213 |
| By: | Carlos Giraldo (Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas - FLAR); Iader Giraldo-Salazar (Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas - FLAR); Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez (Department of Finance, Information Systems, and Economics, City University of New York – Lehman College); Jorge M Uribe (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya) |
| Abstract: | We examine how climate hazards influence housing affordability, measured by the price-to-income ratio (PTI), across a global cross-section of cities. While previous research links PTI mainly to credit conditions and bubble dynamics, the role of climate hazards remains largely unexplored. Using hierarchical cluster analysis to group climate indicators and quantile regressions to capture effects across the distribution of PTI, we find that climate factors matter little at the median and lower end of the PTI distribution, but strongly influence the most overpriced markets. Higher cooling degree day, reflecting prolonged warming, raise PTI ratios by enhancing the amenity value of milder winters, whereas extreme hot days above 35 °C lower PTI, are associated to a reduced demand under acute heat stress, and therefore to lower PTIs. Our results which highlight both the risks of raising temperatures and the amenity value of warmer winters imply that temperate cities should prepare for intensified affordability pressures as warming winters drive further overpricing, while tropical cities may experience easing PTI but face severe health and infrastructure risks. Policies must integrate housing, finance, and climate adaptation to address these divergent challenges. |
| Keywords: | climate change; price-to-income; temperature raising; amenity; quantile regressions |
| Date: | 2025–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:021689 |
| By: | Garnett Picot; Eden Crossman; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | The Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) is designed to contribute to the more equitable distribution of new immigrants across Canada. A related objective is the retention and integration of provincial nominees in the nominating province or territory. This article examines the retention of PNP immigrants at both the national and provincial or territorial levels. The analysis uses data from the Immigrant Landing File and tax records, along with three indicators of retention, to measure the propensity of a province or territory to retain immigrants. Results showed that the retention of PNP immigrants in the province or territory of landing was generally high. Overall, 89% of the provincial nominees who landed in 2019 had stayed in their intended province or territory at the end of the landing year. However, there was large variation by province or territory, ranging from 69% to 97%. Of those nominees located in a province at the end of the landing year, a large proportion (in the mid-80% range) remained in that province five years later. Again, there was significant variation by province, ranging from 39% to 94%. At the national level, both short- and longer-term provincial and territorial retention rates were lower among provincial nominees than among other economic immigrants. However, after adjusting for differences in the province of residence, sociodemographic characteristics and economic conditions, the provincial nominee retention rate was marginally higher than that among federal skilled workers during the first three years in Canada, and there was little difference after five years. Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia had the highest PNP retention rates, and Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick, the lowest. This gap among provinces tended to increase significantly with years since immigration. Accounting for the provincial unemployment rate explained some of the differences in retention rates between the Atlantic provinces and Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. However, even after adjusting for a rich set of control variables, a significant retention rate difference among provinces persisted. Provinces and territories can benefit from the PNP not only through the nominees retained in the province or territory, but also from those migrating from other provinces or territories. Ontario was a magnet for the secondary migration of provincial nominees. After accounting for both outflows and inflows of provincial nominees, Ontario was the only province or territory that had a large net gain from this process, with significant inflows of provincial nominees from other provinces. Overall, long-term retention of provincial nominees tended to be quite high in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia, particularly when considering inflows, as well as outflows. Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia tended to have an intermediate level, but still relatively high longer-term retention rates. Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador had the lowest retention. |
| Keywords: | Provincial Nominee Program, immigrants, internal migration, regional retention |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2023–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202301100002e |
| By: | Patrick Bennett; Julian Vedeler Johnsen |
| Abstract: | We study how the labor market shocks of automation and immigration interact to shape workers’ outcomes. Using matched employer–employee data from Norwegian administrative registers, we combine an immigration shock triggered by the European Union’s 2004 enlargement with an automation shock based on the adoption of industrial robots across Europe. Although these shocks largely occur in separate industries, we show that automation reduces earnings not only in manufacturing but also in construction, where tasks overlap with robot-exposed sectors. Importantly, workers jointly exposed to automation and immigration suffer earnings losses greater than those facing either shock in isolation. These losses are driven by downward occupational mobility into low-wage services and re-sorting into lower-premium firms. Even within the Norwegian welfare system, the ability of social insurance to offset these long-run earnings declines is limited. Our findings underscore the importance of analyzing labor market shocks jointly, rather than in isolation, to fully understand their distributional consequences. |
| Keywords: | automation, immigration, labor market shocks |
| JEL: | J01 J61 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12217 |
| By: | Lim, Valerie L.; Marasigan, Arlyne C.; Sinsay-Villanueva, Leih Maruss; Garcia, Glenda Darlene V.; Tanyag, Ivan Harris; Berroya, Jenard D.; Mejia, Ivy P.; De Vera, Jayson L.; Serafico-Reyes, Nikolee Marie A.; Castulo, Nilo J.; De Pano, Cathlene; Aquino, John Michael D. |
| Abstract: | The Localization Law (Republic Act [RA] 8190) aims to improve educational equity by emphasizing the recruitment of teachers from local communities, promoting cultural congruence, and reducing relocation expenses. Although RA 8190 has been in effect since 1996, challenges in filling teacher vacancies persist. This study employed a descriptive qualitative research design, using document analysis, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions with school administrators and teachers to assess the law's effectiveness and efficiency. Results highlighted that the law has evolved over time to establish a clear geographic hiring hierarchy while balancing local preference with subject specialization needs, particularly for priority programs supported by mechanisms like transfer priority and teacher ranking. Its implementation reveals significant limitations, such as mismatches in teacher specialization, prolonged recruitment procedures, and a lack of effective monitoring and assessment mechanisms. The observed inconsistencies significantly affected teacher applicants and the school-level hiring and recruitment processes. This necessitates further improvement in the implementation of the law to enhance its effectiveness and efficiency. Therefore, it is essential to amend the law to ensure that its practice is monitored and evaluated to address the current challenges. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | Localization Law;teacher recruitment;decentralization;educational equity;policy and practice |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-23 |
| By: | Angela S. Bergantino (Department of Economics, Management and Business Law, University of Bari, Italy & Laboratory of Applied Economics (LEA), Italy.); Antonello Clemente (Department of Economics, Management and Business Law, University of Bari, Italy & Laboratory of Applied Economics (LEA), Italy); Stefano Iandolo (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Italy); Riccardo Turati (Dep Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain & IZA, Germany & RFBerlin, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution and determinants of skill-specific internal mobility among Italian citizens by urban–rural origin. Using administrative data from the Registry of Trans- fer of Residence (ADELE), which records the universe of skill-specific bilateral moves across more than 700 millions potential municipality pairs between 2012 and 2022, we document distinct trends in residential mobility for college-educated and non-college-educated citi- zens. We then assess the role of economic and non-economic factors in shaping these flows, employing a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator with an extensive set of destination and origin-by-nest fixed effects. Our findings show that low-skilled movers respond more strongly to economic factors, while high-skilled movers are respond more to non-economic ones, with the urban–rural divide at origin amplifying these differences. More- over, we find that after the COVID-19 pandemic, economic drivers became less relevant, whereas non-economic factors gained importance. Overall, this study highlights that, simi- lar to international migration, the drivers of internal mobility are inherently skill-specific. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Human Capital, Urban-Rural, Italy, COVID-19. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2513 |
| By: | Sachiko KAZEKAMI |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of globalization on domestic urbanization and employment structures in the non-manufacturing sector. Despite its significance, this area has been understudied because of data limitations. Diverse transactions and expansion without capital investments make services difficult to capture in official statistics. However, services comprise 80% of employment in advanced economies. While data constraints remain, this study improves estimation precision by using firm-level data on overseas investments and actual domestic employment, rather than relying on proxy allocations based on regional employment shares. The analysis utilizes Japanese data from 2005 to 2020, examined by employment areas, and employs panel fixed-effects models with instrumental variables. In the information and communications industry, globalization is associated with an increase in employment, especially among female, college-educated, and regular employees, driven by inflows and increased labor participation, indicating job creation accompanied by a reallocation of human resources. Conversely, in the academic research and professional and technical services industry, foreign labor substitutes for domestic labor, resulting in lower wages. Meanwhile, the accommodation and food services sector saw employment growth but a decrease in wages, without labor migration. While the manufacturing sector showed few significant effects, beyond these examples, the non-manufacturing sector exhibited diverse spillover effects on employment, mobility, and wages. The pathways through which globalization affects regional communities—such as through the reallocation of human resources and changes in employment conditions—have not been fully captured by conventional manufacturing-focused perspectives. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25099 |
| By: | Priscila Espinosa (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat de València, Spain); Priscila Espinosa; Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); José Manuel Pavía (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The floods that struck the Valencian region (Spain) in October 2024 illustrate how climate change is intensifying extreme weather events in Mediterranean floodprone areas, challenging regional economic resilience. This disaster, which resulted in numerous fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage, disrupted supply chains across a region already vulnerable due to decades of urban and industrial development in the area. Drawing on regional economic resilience theory and recovery curve methodologies, we present an ex ante framework for rapidly assessing climate disaster impacts on regional economic growth. Our approach combines sectoral recovery dynamics with worker-level impact data to update GDP growth forecasts in real-time, addressing a critical gap in disaster response capabilities for increasingly climate-vulnerable regions. Applied to the Valencia floods, our methodology reveals differential sectoral resilience patterns: while construction demonstrates rapid recovery due to reconstruction demand, agriculture shows prolonged vulnerability reflecting the sector’s exposure to climate risks. Compared to pre-flood forecasts, results indicate economic contractions of up to 0.2 percentage points in 2024 and 2025, followed by a policy-supported rebound adding 0.3 percentage points to growth in 2026. The analysis underscores how government intervention fundamentally shapes postdisaster economic trajectories in flood-prone regions. Beyond providing immediate impact assessment, this framework offers a generalisable tool for enhancing climate resilience planning in Mediterranean and other climatevulnerable territories, enabling policymakers to rapidly adjust economic forecasts and recovery strategies as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe under climate change. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic forecasting; GDP growth; natural disasters; recovery curves; regional economic resilience |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 H84 C53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2025/10 |
| By: | Daniel Aparicio-Pérez (Department of Economic Analysis, Universitat de València, Spain); Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina; Eduardo Jiménez-Fernández (Department of Economics Theory and History, Universidad de Granada, Spain; IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Transparency is vital to good governance as it ensures accountability, integrity, and citizen participation. However, measuring transparency remains a challenge due to the ambiguous nature of human language. Traditional measurement approaches rely on binary or categorical dimensions, which can lead to limited insights and inaccurate policy decisions. To address this challenge, we develop a transparency indicator based on multiple metrics. On the one hand, fuzzy metrics are employed to quantify categorical dimensions; on the other hand, standard metrics are used to compute the overall transparency indicator. The notion of transparency is contrary to the binary principle of having a property or not, that is, to be transparent or not. In our case, we apply a novel methodology designed for formative measurement and partially compensatory models using a set of qualitative dimensions. This tool provides a measure of how close (observations close to 1) or far (observations close to 0) each observation (in this setting, the municipality) is from the analyzed concept. This is calculated for each indicator while preserving the metric structure. In the municipality setting, this approach captures the complexity of transparency and can better identify areas for improvement in local governments. In a second step, we analyze the political, economic, and social determinants of this transparency index, relying on spatial econometric techniques to account for spatial dependencies and to ensure the accuracy of our findings. We use a novel dataset that comprehensively measures transparency at the municipal level in the Valencian region. As far as we know, this is the first database that covers all municipalities in the region. By capturing the complexity of transparency, our approach can better identify areas for improvement and lead to more effective policy interventions. We argue that traditional approaches that rely on binary or categorical variables may oversimplify the concept, resulting in inadequate policy solutions that fail to address the real challenges faced by local governments. |
| Keywords: | transparency; local governments; composite indicators, fuzzy sets |
| JEL: | H11 H70 C63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2025/11 |
| By: | Simon Varaine (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble-UGA - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Raul Magni-Berton (ANTHROPO LAB - Laboratoire d'Anthropologie Expérimentale - ETHICS EA 7446 - Experience ; Technology & Human Interactions ; Care & Society : - ICL - Institut Catholique de Lille - UCL - Université catholique de Lille); Sebastian Roché (PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble-UGA - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Paul Le Derff (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Street riots often follow police killings of citizens. Yet, the majority of police killings do not lead to riots. Why do some police homicides lead to riots while others do not? This paper analyzes the intensity of riots in France using monthly data on arsons targeting private property at the department (sub-regional) level from January 1996 to August 2022 (N = 32, 080), in relation to an original dataset on the occurrence and characteristics of police homicides. The results suggest that police homicides have a small overall effect on riots: fewer than 0.3% of arsons in a given department can be attributed to police killings in that department. While most police homicides do not have the potential to trigger riots, certain characteristics significantly increase the likelihood that a riot will occur: the victim has a non-European migratory background, is a French citizen, and the perpetrators belong to specific police forces. The impact also increases when there are multiple victims. We provide suggestive evidence that identification with the victim plays a key role among potential rioters, as does the social integration of the victim. |
| Keywords: | Police, France, Ethnicity, Police homicides, Riots |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05322723 |
| By: | Filippo De Feo (Institut für Mathematik, Technische Universität Berlin); Giorgio Fabbri (Université Grenoble Alpes; INRAE); Silvia Faggian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Giuseppe Freni (Parthenope University of Naples) |
| Abstract: | We study optimal and strategic extraction of a renewable resource that is distributed over a network, migrates mass-conservingly across nodes, and evolves under nonlinear (concave) growth. A subset of nodes hosts extractors while the remaining nodes serve as reserves. We analyze a centralized planner and a noncooperative game with stationary Markov strategies. The migration operator transports shadow values along the network so that Perron–Frobenius geometry governs long-run spatial allocations, while nonlinear growth couples aggregate biomass with its spatial distribution and bounds global dynamics. For three canonical growth families, logistic, power, and log-type saturating laws, under related unilities, we derive closed-form value functions and feedback rules for the planner and construct a symmetric Markov equilibrium on strongly connected networks. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to obtain explicit policies for spatial resource extraction with nonlinear growth and, a fortiori, closed-form Markov equilibria, on general networks. |
| Keywords: | Harvesting, spatial models, differential games, nature reserves |
| JEL: | Q20 Q28 R11 C73 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:22 |
| By: | Kristina Butaeva (University of Chicago); Albert Park (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we conduct the first systematic empirical analysis of income inequality in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at the provincial level. Using data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and a semiparametric distribution model, we estimate Gini indices for a set of provincial-level administrative units in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. We find that differences in the “prices” and “quantities” of human capital are important factors in explaining differences in inequality between these provincial areas. Our findings suggest that poor areas are highly disadvantaged compared with rich ones, as they face higher income and educational inequality, as well as higher returns to education, while at the same time exhibiting lower average educational attainment. We conclude that filling existing interprovincial human capital gaps and accelerating labor market integration through appropriate government policies could reduce spatial disparities in inequality levels across regions and overall income inequality in the PRC. |
| Keywords: | income inequality;provinces;People’s Republic of China;human capital |
| JEL: | D31 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021691 |
| By: | Francesco Molica; Francesco Cappellano; Teemu Makkonen |
| Abstract: | Since a few years, the international economic system has been experiencing growing fragmentation and uncertainty. However, research on Regional Innovation Systems (RIS) has yet to comprehensively engage with this phenomenon, despite its (spatial) significance. The paper contributes to addressing this gap, in particular by exploring the potential implications for RIS arising from the decline and disruptions of international knowledge flows associated with economic de-globalization. The study seeks to define a theoretical approach grounded in evolutionary geography to assess this trend. It applies such perspective to three types of RIS—metropolitan, old industrial, and peripheral—across five analytical dimensions that capture the structural and relational factors shaping RIS exposure and resilience to de-globalization. The discussion highlights that, in the face of knowledge and technological disruptions arising from international instability, metropolitan RIS may leverage their diversified knowledge bases, dense institutional frameworks, and strong global connectivity to successfully reconfigure external linkages; old industrial RIS may follow mixed trajectories, with the risk of deepening economic and policy lock-ins; while peripheral RIS—due to their reliance on external knowledge sources and limited endogenous innovation capacity—emerge as the most vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | De-globalization; Knowledge flows; Regional innovation system; Resilience |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/395461 |
| By: | Baris K. Yörük |
| Abstract: | How does diversity affect charitable giving? On the one hand, diversity can lead to increased charitable giving, as individuals may feel more connected to and invested in their community when they see the diversity of needs and perspectives within it. On the other hand, diversity can also create challenges for charitable giving, as individuals may have different priorities, beliefs, and cultural norms that affect their willingness to give to certain causes and organizations. Using data from 2010-2020 county-level income tax returns linked to the U.S. Census population estimates, I find a negative impact of local ethnic diversity on charitable giving. In particular, I document that a one percentage point increase in the local ethnic fragmentation index is associated with up to a 2.9 percent decrease in the fraction of tax returns with charitable contributions and a 2 percent decrease in charitable contributions as a fraction of adjusted gross income. |
| Keywords: | charitable giving, local ethnic diversity, fundraising |
| JEL: | J10 J18 H30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12223 |
| By: | Samuel MacIsaac |
| Abstract: | On average, individuals who own their dwelling report higher satisfaction with their dwelling, neighbourhood and life than renters. These differences may reflect a positive causal impact of ownership on satisfaction. However, these differences could also reflect compositional effects, such as differences in household, dwelling and neighbourhood characteristics. Using the 2021 Canadian Housing Survey, this study shows that these differences in satisfaction narrow substantially, or disappear entirely, upon controlling for compositional effects. For instance, the majority of the dwelling satisfaction gap between renters and owners could be attributed to owners being more likely to reside in single-detached dwellings, with more bedrooms, and fewer dwelling issues such as mould or pests. Similarly, the life satisfaction gap was largely tied to household composition differences such as owners being less likely to experience financial difficulties and other differences related to their health status, marital status and age. In other words, comparable individuals living in comparable dwellings and neighbourhoods report similar satisfaction levels. This finding suggests that the impact of ownership on satisfaction, if any, is relatively small. This finding does not rule out the possibility that ownership can provide other social or economic benefits. |
| Keywords: | Housing tenure, dwelling satisfaction, neighbourhood satisfaction, life satisfaction |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400600004e |
| By: | Jacek Wszo{\l}a; Krzysztof Burnecki; Marek Teuerle; Martyna Zdeb |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel multidimensional insurance-linked instrument: a contingent convertible bond (CoCoCat bond) whose conversion trigger is activated by predefined natural catastrophes across multiple geographical regions. We develop such a model explicitly accounting for the complex dependencies between regional catastrophe losses. Specifically, we explore scenarios ranging from complete independence to proportional loss dependencies, both with fixed and random loss amounts. Utilizing change-of-measure techniques, we derive risk-neutral pricing formulas tailored to these diverse dependence structures. By fitting our model to real-world natural catastrophe data from Property Claim Services, we demonstrate the significant impact of inter-regional dependencies on the CoCoCat bond's pricing, highlighting the importance of multidimensional risk assessment for this innovative financial instrument. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.17221 |
| By: | Colombo, Massimo G.; Füner, Lena; Guerini, Massimiliano; Hottenrott, Hanna; Souza, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates and extends the framework of Guzman and Stern (2020) to examine the evolution of entrepreneurial activity in Europe, focusing on France, Germany, and the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2023. Using harmonized national business registry data, we construct measures of both the quantity and quality of entrepreneurship across regions. In particular, we adapt the Entrepreneurial Quality Index (EQI), the Regional Entrepreneurship Cohort Potential Index (RECPI), and the Regional Entrepreneurial Acceleration Index (REAI) to capture the number of new ventures, their ex-ante growth potential, and the extent to which ecosystems translate this potential into realized outcomes. Our findings support the generalizability of this framework in the European context while revealing substantial heterogeneity across countries and regions. Major metropolitan centers such as Paris, London, and Munich combine high rates of entry with high entrepreneurial quality, but smaller knowledge- and research-intensive regions - including Cambridge, Oxford, Bonn, and Heidelberg - also emerge as important hubs. With respect to ecosystem performance, France and the UK initially exceeded expectations but later experienced steady declines, whereas Germany maintained relatively stable performance, with notable overperformance between 2012 and 2016. Moreover, we find a stronger positive correlation between entrepreneurial quantity and quality in Europe, suggesting that ecosystems capable of generating more start-ups are also more likely to produce high-quality firms. This study provides important insights for the comparative analysis of entrepreneurial ecosystems and builds a foundation for designing policies aimed at fostering high-quality, innovation-driven entrepreneurship in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial Quality, Entrepreneurial Ecosystem, High-Growth Firms, Regional Innovation |
| JEL: | G24 G32 L25 L26 M13 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:330316 |
| By: | Enghin Atalay; Ryan Kobler; Ryan Michaels |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines the response of parental labor supply to the pandemic-era suspension of in-person instruction. The effect of school closures is undetectable after controlling comprehensively for unobserved heterogeneity. Even excluding such controls, a shift from fully virtual to in-person implies an increase in weekly hours worked of just 2 to 2.5. These estimates are used to inform a simple model of the household in which access to telework and nonparental care mitigate the labor supply impact of school closures. Time use data suggest telework and nonparental care indeed helped some parents balance work and childcare during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Market work; family economics; childcare; pandemic; in-person learning |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J48 |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:101998 |
| By: | Max Stick; Allison Leanage; Rubab Arim |
| Abstract: | This study explores a socioeconomic profile of working-age immigrants (aged 25 to 64) in same-sex couples from 2000 to 2020 using the Longitudinal Immigration Database. The study addresses three research questions: (1) how has the number of working-age immigrants in same-sex couples shifted since the nationwide legalization of same-sex marriage in Canada in 2005, (2) what is the geographic distribution of working-age immigrants in same-sex couples and (3) how does the economic profile (employment incidence and median employment income) of working-age immigrants in same-sex couples compare with that of working-age immigrants in opposite-sex couples? Results revealed that the number of male and female working-age immigrants in same-sex couples increased in Canada from 2000 to 2020. Previously, most working-age immigrants in same-sex couples tended to reside in the Toronto, Vancouver and Montréal census metropolitan areas (CMAs), but in recent years, there has been a greater dispersal towards smaller CMAs and rural areas in Canada. Finally, across most years, male and female working-age immigrants in same-sex couples had higher rates of employment incidence and median employment incomes than their counterparts in opposite-sex couples. This pattern of results largely remained the same after considering group differences in several sociodemographic characteristics. However, male working-age immigrants in same-sex couples had lower employment income than their counterparts with similar sociodemographic characteristics in opposite-sex couples. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, same-sex couples, employment, income |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400600005e |
| By: | Nicola Garbarino |
| Abstract: | Does land development adapt to changing climate risks? Extreme precipitation increases flood risk, yet land-use decisions may overlook rare events. Drawing on nearly half a century of climate and land-use data for Europe (1975–2020), this paper finds that extreme precipitation slows the expansion of built-up areas, though only slightly. The effect is stronger over longer horizons, consistent with a clearer climate signal. Adaptation is concentrated in fast-growing urban areas. An accounting framework that combines these effects suggests that relocation in response to shifting precipitation patterns has reduced damages by roughly 5%. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_419 |
| By: | Andreea Mitrut; Gabriel Kreindler; Margareta Matache; Andrei Munteanu; Cristian Pop-Eleches |
| Abstract: | How does ethnic identification vary with education among disadvantaged minorities? We study this question for Roma people, Europe's largest ethnic minority, using linked Romanian census data and birth records. We measure how individuals change reported ethnicity over time, or “pass.” Roma identification strongly declines with education, from 80% for those with no education to 40% for postsecondary graduates. We estimate a model with persistent individual heterogeneity and find 3-6 times more Roma postsecondary graduates than in official data. Survey data we collect shows that most Romanians are unaware of these patterns. Such selective passing may reinforce stereotypes about marginalized groups. |
| JEL: | I21 I25 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34383 |
| By: | Hall, Caroline (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Lindahl, Erica (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Rosenqvist, Olof (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | While all children in Sweden are entitled to free, universal preschool from age 3, enrollment rates for children with an immigrant background – and especially for those in newly-arrived families – remain well below the 95 percent national average. At the same time, studies suggest that these children have particularly high returns from preschool attendance. Thus, policies that increase preschool enrollment among children with an immigrant background have potential to improve long-term educational and labor market outcomes and narrow the gap to natives. We evaluate a reform in 2023 that required municipalities to offer preschool slots to 3–5-year-olds in newly-arrived immigrant families without the parents needing to apply – so-called automatic offers. Using a difference-in-differences specification, we compare next-year enrollment rates for currently non-enrolled children in newly-arrived families and other families and find that the policy substantially increased preschool enrollment. Our results suggest that administrative hurdles prevent some immigrant families from enrolling their children and that simplifying the application process is an effective policy tool for increasing preschool participation in this group. |
| Keywords: | preschool participation; foreign background; default enrollment |
| JEL: | I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_018 |
| By: | Åstebro, Thomas (HEC Paris); Hällerfors, Henrik (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Bergh, Andreas (Department of Economics, Lund University, and); Tåg, Joacim (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Many countries have established new local colleges to increase access to education for disadvantaged populations. However, many of these expansions have not reduced educational inequality. Drawing on evidence from a large-scale college expansion initiative, we find that increased college availability did not lead to a differential increase in attendance among students from parents with less education. Rather, the expanded access primarily benefited students with marginal academic ability. These results suggest that higher education enrollment is largely determined by inherent scholastic ability and that the expansion of higher education tends to attract students at the upper margin of this ability distribution. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational correlations; University expansion; Access to education; Higher education |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1538 |
| By: | Francis Bloch; Bhaskar Dutta; Marcin Dziubi\'nski |
| Abstract: | We propose and study a model of strategic network design and exploration where the hider, subject to a budget constraint restricting the number of links, chooses a connected network and the location of an object. Meanwhile, the seeker, not observing the network and the location of the object, chooses a network exploration strategy starting at a fixed node in the network. The network exploration follows the expanding search paradigm of Alpern and Lidbetter (2013). We obtain a Nash equilibrium and characterize equilibrium payoffs in the case of linking budget allowing for trees only. We also give an upper bound on the expected number of steps needed to find the hider for the case where the linking budget allows for at most one cycle in the network. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.16994 |
| By: | Christoph Schimmele; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | Selecting immigrants with high levels of education increases their chances of economic success. Immigrants with a bachelor’s degree or higher are more adaptable to changes in the labour market and have steeper growth in employment earnings than those with a trades or high school education (Picot, Hou, & Qiu, 2016). However, many immigrants with a bachelor’s degree or higher have occupations that underutilize their skills, which can reduce their employment income, productivity and well-being (Cornelissen & Turcotte, 2020). |
| Keywords: | education, occupation, immigrants |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202400500002e |
| By: | Rivera, JohnPaoloR.; Lim, ValerieL.; Sinsay-Villanueva, LeihMaruss; Garcia, GlendaDarleneV.; Tanyag, IvanHarris; Berroya, JenardD. |
| Abstract: | Teaching quality is considered one of the foundations of student achievement and institutional performance. Consequently, linking in-service training (INSET) and teacher professional development (TPD) to student outcomes has been at the forefront of education research. This inquiry focuses on how to improve accessibility and participation in INSET and TPD programs to enhance teaching quality and revitalize the Philippine education system. Accessibility issues, allocation practices, and implementation challenges of INSET and TPD programs are examined. By triangulating data from document reviews with insights gathered from key informant interviews with sector experts and focus group discussions with teachers, key gaps that hinder the achievement of intended outcomes are highlighted. Findings reveal that while training opportunities exist and needs assessments are in place, outcomes are impeded by inequitable access, inconsistent funding, and a lack of alignment with evolving pedagogical needs. Moreover, logistical barriers, such as geographic constraints and workload concerns, prevent full participation in TPD programs. To address these challenges, comprehensive recommendations for the Department of Education (DepEd), policymakers, and educational institutions are presented, aimed at ensuring equitable access to INSET and TPD programs through increased funding, integration of digital learning tools, and institutionalization of sustainable training frameworks. Educational institutions can implement school-based professional learning communities, strengthen mentorship programs, and encourage data-driven approaches to professional growth. By enhancing INSET and TPD programs through strategic reforms and evidence-based interventions, the Philippines can cultivate a high-quality teaching workforce capable of addressing the evolving landscape and demands of 21st-century education. A renewed commitment to teacher development will not only enhance instructional quality but also pave the way for a more inclusive, innovative, and resilient education system that empowers both teachers and learners. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | education;in-service training;learning;teacher professional development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-14 |
| By: | Ziwei Rao; Julia Hellstrand (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Understanding how education policies influence fertility behavior may reveal how education can shape population trends. However, the long-term demographic effects of structural reforms, such as school tracking – separating students into vocational or academic paths – remain underexplored. This study uses Finnish population register data to evaluate the fertility responses to a Finnish comprehensive school reform implemented in the 1970s that offers a unique opportunity to study completed fertility over the entire lifespan. The reform replaced the existing two-track system with a uniform nine-year comprehensive school, thereby delaying the age at which pupils are selected into vocational and academic tracks. Adopting a difference-in-differences method that is robust to heterogeneous effect and multiple treatment timing, this study explores the time-varying dynamic impact of the reform. The findings indicate increased lifetime childlessness and delayed age at first birth. The reform was also associated with higher educational attainment and reduced prevalence of vocational tracks. Further analysis suggests that the greater childlessness and delayed childbearing were likely driven by weaker early-life labor market performance following non-vocational education. This paper contributes to the literature on the education-fertility nexus by showing that education policies that delay tracking age and reduce emphasis on vocational education may unexpectedly shape the fertility landscape. Keywords: fertility, education policy, educational tracking, early-life employment |
| Keywords: | educational policy, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-030 |
| By: | Kuhlemann, Jana (Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES), University of Mannheim); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This study investigates the role of engaging in physical leisure activities in facilitating refugees’ structural integration through enhancing their social capital, destination-language proficiency, and health. The physical fitness gained from such activities can also be crucial for securing physically demanding jobs. As employment significantly influences refugees’ social integration, this research specifically examines the impact of the intensity and regularity of sports engagement on employment outcomes among refugees from the 2015/16 influx in Germany. Utilizing longitudinal data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees, findings reveal that regular and more intensive engagement in physical leisure activities increases refugees’ chances of securing gainful employment and obtaining physically demanding jobs in the subsequent year. However, sports involvement does not correlate with higher occupational prestige, potentially locking them into lower-status jobs. Additionally, time spent in other types of leisure activities shows a slightly negative association with labor market outcomes, underscoring the unique benefits of sports. This points to the dual-edged nature of sports as an integration tool – beneficial in fostering initial labor market entry but possibly limiting in terms of career advancement." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | I12 J15 J24 J61 Z13 Z20 |
| Date: | 2025–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202515 |
| By: | Tahsin Mehdi; Ying Gai; Ping Ching Winnie Chan; René Morissette; Jason Raymond; Rubab Arim; Dylan Saunders |
| Abstract: | This study provides insights into the tax-filing behaviour of newly landed immigrants and their families over time in Canada, using the Longitudinal Immigration Database. Tax-filing rates were compared across seven cohorts of permanent residents based on their landing year, ranging from 1993 to 2019. Results indicate a significant improvement in filing rates from the mid-1990s to the late 1990s for individuals as well as families, but the rates have remained fairly stable since then. Descriptive and multivariate analyses reveal differences in filing rates for individuals and couples across several landing characteristics within and between cohorts. Refugees were usually the most likely immigration class to file income tax returns upon landing, while immigrants admitted through the Federal Skilled Worker Program were usually the least likely class to file. Immigrants with graduate degrees at landing were usually less likely to file taxes upon landing, compared with immigrants with lower educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | immigration; tax filing; government transfers; Canada child benefit |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2023–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202301100004e |
| By: | João B. Duarte; Afonso S. Moura |
| Abstract: | We study how local corporate tax increases affect firms’ financing and real activity. In Portugal, municipalities independently set a surtax on corporate income, generating plausibly exogenous variation across space and time. We link the universe of corporate balance sheets and profitand-loss statements to loan-level data from the Bank of Portugal’s credit registry, allowing us to track firms’ liquidity, leverage, borrowing costs, and credit quality alongside revenues, inputs, employment, and productivity. We estimate local-projection difference-in-differences models that address staggered treatment timing and dynamic responses. Surtax hikes immediately tighten financing conditions: liquidity falls, implicit interest rates rise, debt increases at shorter maturities, and non-performing loans become more prevalent. These strains spill over into real outcomes: firms reduce sales, inputs, and employment and experience persistent declines in total factor productivity. Effects are strongest among small and young firms, where leverage rises in response to liquidity losses, while larger firms increase leverage in line with tax-shield incentives. We also find higher exit and relocation probabilities, but no gains in neighboring output, pointing to inefficient reallocation. Our results highlight how local tax policy can transmit through both financial and real margins, with implications for fiscal design in decentralized settings. |
| JEL: | E62 G38 H25 H32 H71 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202511 |