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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Joan Monràs |
| Abstract: | Immigrants are not just workers, they are also consumers. Yet most of the literature studying immigration has focused on the former. This paper uses detailed Spanish consumption survey data to characterize how immigrant consumption differs from that of natives. Immigrants are much more likely to rent than native households, even when controlling for many observable characteristics. Decompositions of the differences in consumption patterns between immigrants and natives show that most of the differences cannot be accounted for standard socio-economic characteristics like income, household size, and geography. Variation from the amnesty program implemented in Spain in 2005 suggests that a small part of the differences in housing tenure status depend on the fact that many immigrants lack work permits, and potentially, formal access to mortgage credit. |
| Keywords: | amnesty, assimilation, housing markets, Immigrant consumption |
| JEL: | J61 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1517 |
| By: | Padilla-Romo, María (University of Tennessee); Peluffo, Cecilia (University of Florida) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of moving away from violent environments into safer areas on migrants' academic achievement in the context of the Mexican war on drugs. Using student location choices across space and over time, we recover individual-level migration paths for elementary school students across all municipalities in Mexico. We find that students who were induced to leave violent areas due to increased violence experience academic gains after relocating to safer areas. Students who migrated from municipalities in the 90th percentile of the violence distribution to municipalities in the 10th percentile experienced improvements of 5.3 percent of a standard deviation in their test scores two years after they migrated. These results appear to be explained by increases in school attendance and improvements in the learning environment after they moved. |
| Keywords: | educational trajectories, migration, local violence |
| JEL: | I24 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18155 |
| By: | Simone Moriconi; Mikaël Pasternak; Ahmed Tritah; Nadiya Ukrayinchuk |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on intergenerational social mobility among immigrants and natives in France. Using linked parent–child data from censuses, we introduce an individual-level metric - the Intergenerational Rank Difference (IRD) - that measures upward and downward mobility relative to the highest-ranked parent across both education and predicted income. We document a robust mobility premium for second-generation immigrants: on average, they achieve a predicted income rank six percentiles higher than observationally equivalent natives, with the advantage most pronounced among women, children of two immigrant parents, and those from disadvantaged households. Educational gains explain part of this differential, but labor-market advancement plays the larger role. Internal migration emerges as an important channel, as immigrant movers disproportionately relocate to high-mobility areas. Finally, a spatial analysis highlights substantial heterogeneity: some local areas act as “lands of opportunity, ” while others are associated with stagnation or decline. These findings underscore the interplay of individual characteristics and local contexts in shaping long-run integration and suggest a role for place-aware policies to foster equality of opportunity. |
| Keywords: | migration economics, intergenerational social mobility, human capital |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J62 J71 I24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12196 |
| By: | Merola, Emily (Princeton University); Phillips, David (University of Notre Dame); Turner, Patrick S (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | The criminal justice system primarily arrests and incarcerates people without high school diplomas. We estimate the causal effect of a high school diploma on criminal justice system contact for a set of people who previously exited high school but then attended The Excel Center (TEC), a network of high schools for adults. Compared to those who apply but do not enroll, students who enroll but exit without a diploma do not experience a decline in criminal charges. Criminal charges for students who complete a diploma, on the other hand, decline by 49% the year following application, an effect which largely persists for at least five years. These effects are sufficiently large to increase the cost-effectiveness of the program by 2-5 times. The pattern of effects also suggests that, beyond simple incapacitation, getting an adult high school diploma itself leads to lower contact with the criminal justice system. |
| Keywords: | human capital, returns to education, high school diploma, GED, crime |
| JEL: | K42 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18168 |
| By: | Hall, Caroline (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Lindskog, Annika (Department of Economics, University of Gothenborg); Lundin, Martin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of distance learning on educational outcomes for lower secondary school students in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. We leverage variation in the implementation of remote instruction across schools and compare pre-pandemic and pandemic-affected cohorts using a difference-in-differences design with entropy balancing weights. We examine effects on grade 9 students’ test scores on standardized tests and their transition to upper secondary school. Our findings suggest that students in schools that adopted remote instruction performed similarly to those in schools that maintained in-person teaching throughout the pandemic. Moreover, progression to upper secondary school was not negatively affected. In some cases, we even find evidence of positive effects of remote instruction. We find some support for the interpretation that these positive effects may be due to remote instruction enabling more teaching hours during a period with high teacher and student absence. |
| Keywords: | Remote instruction; distance learning; school performance; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_016 |
| By: | Yibo Qiao; Yingcheng Li; Ron Boschma |
| Abstract: | Place dependence is a widely recognized concept but has rarely been quantified in existing research. Employing the Wasserstein Distance algorithm from machine learning literature and China’s Annual Survey of Industrial Firms dataset, this paper introduces a novel method to measure the place dependence of industrial dynamics in Chinese cities, and explore its impact on urban economic performance. Our empirical findings confirm the presence of place dependence in Chinese cities, and show that cities diversifying into more related and complex industries tend to exhibit higher levels of place dependence. Moreover, place dependence appears to complement the effects of relatedness and complexity in enhancing urban economic performance. These findings offer important insights for regional industrial development and urban planning practices. |
| Keywords: | Place dependence, path dependence, knowledge complexity, industrial dynamics, economic performance, China |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2531 |
| By: | Pasquale Accardo (University of Bath); Adriano Amati (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia); Giovanni Mastrobuoni (Collegio Carlo Alberto; University of Turin; University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | This study uses a unique longitudinal data set on daily museum visits in Northern Italy to investigate how social networks influence leisure consumption. Based on detailed administrative records of museum cardholders, we use repeated joint visits to build a dynamic network of peers. We identify peer effects that exploit exogenous variation in membership prices generated by age-based discounts. We find robust evidence of peer spillovers in both museum attendance and membership renewal, primarily driven by a preference for shared experiences. These results underscore the role of social interactions in shaping leisure demand and support the view that social networks can amplify individual behavior. More broadly, our findings contribute to the understanding of peer dynamics in settings where consumption is inherently social. |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eid:wpaper:58191 |
| By: | Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna (University of Bath); Homburg, Ines (University of Antwerp); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of immigration on voting behaviour. Exploiting a unique natural experiment, we research parliamentary election results in Poland following the 2022 inflow of Ukrainian refugees. We exploit the variation in hosted refugees across Polish counties and utilise a shift-share instrument based on the past settlement of Ukrainian immigrants. We find increased support for far-right and right-wing (incumbent) political groups, at the expense of centre parties. There is important regional variation in this overall pattern. The more liberal areas in west Poland experienced political polarisation, with both far-right and left-wing parties gaining support. Furthermore, the rise in far-right support is particularly pronounced in rural counties, low wage counties, and those bordering Ukraine. The effects are driven by changing voter preferences, rather than election participation or natives’ internal mobility, and are not rooted in adverse economic effects. Our findings show that exposure to refugees, even those with a similar background and favourable profile, can still be associated with natives’ backlash. |
| Keywords: | election results, refugee exposure, forced migration, Russia-Ukraine war |
| JEL: | D72 D74 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18157 |
| By: | Matías Faggetti |
| Abstract: | This document studies the factors that contribute to segregation in basic secondary education in Uruguay (specifically between traditional high schools (“liceos”) and technical education (“UTU”)). Based on data from the new student assignment system (2019), it is shown that the relative participation of vulnerable students in “UTU” doubles or even triples the number of vulnerable students in “liceos”. Through analysis of counterfactual scenarios, I first show that residential segregation does not fully explain educational segregation. This phenomenon appears to be mediated by student preferences or other characteristics than distance. Secondly, Bayesian methods are used to estimate students' cardinal preferences It is found that the utility non-vulnerable students have from attending “liceos” is higher than from attending to “UTU”. For vulnerable students, this variable is not relevant or they may even prefer attending to “UTU”. Therefore, the use of the vulnerability index as the priority for schools and the differential component in the preferences of vulnerable and non-vulnerable students are contributing to the segregation of the system. |
| Keywords: | School choice, distance to schools, educational segregation, preference estimation. |
| JEL: | C11 C78 I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:wpaper:0424 |
| By: | Akesaka, Mika (Kobe University); Shigeoka, Hitoshi (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This study demonstrates that heat disproportionately impairs human capital accumulation among low-performing students compared with their high-performing peers, using nationwide examination data from 22 million students in Japan. Given the strong correlation between academic performance and socioeconomic background, this suggests that heat exposure exacerbates pre-existing socioeconomic disparities among children. However, access to air conditioning in schools significantly mitigates these adverse effects across all achievement levels, with particularly pronounced benefits for lower-performing students. These findings suggest that public investment in school infrastructure can help reduce the unevenly distributed damage caused by heat to student learning, thereby promoting both efficiency and equity. |
| Keywords: | air conditioning, adaptation, student achievement, distributional impact, heat, children, climate change |
| JEL: | I21 I24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18165 |
| By: | Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Aberdeen - Business School); Richard Malle (Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers (CNAM)) |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes the evolution from 2001 to 2024 of the size and composition of commercial real estate investment markets. The evolution of the composition of the market through time is done both by region and by sector. We first focus on global figures, and then discuss some trends for Europe. Design/Methodology/Approach We analyze the size of commercial real estate investment markets over time. The current size of the market is compared with the market capitalization of stocks and bonds. We then focus on changes in the composition of the real estate investment market by geographical region and sector. We also provide analyses for Europe and to a lesser extent the Asia-Pacific and North American regions. Findings Having trebled in size from 2001 to 2024, the value of global real estate markets is USD 12, 428 billion as of the end of 2024, with the U.S. market accounting for 39% of that figure. The importance of office and retail sectors has diminished over time, while that of residential and industrial investments has increased. The size of the European investment market is USD 3, 873 billion, with the U.K., German, and French markets accounting for 57% of that amount. Wide discrepancies in sectoral compositions are observed across European markets. The markets of China, Japan, Hong Kong and Australia dominate the Asia-Pacific region, while U.S. markets constitute the bulk of markets in North America. Originality/Value This paper provides for a better understanding of the size and composition of commercial real estate investment markets. This is important for investors wishing to invest in the asset class. Among other things, we compare the size of the real estate market with that of stock and bond markets. We also provide insights concerning possible changes in the future. |
| Keywords: | Commercial real estate investment market, Market size, Sectoral composition, Europe |
| JEL: | R33 G12 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2584 |
| By: | Liping Gao; Ghislain N. Gueye; Hyeongwoo Kim; Jisoo Son |
| Abstract: | Using data from 29 regional housing markets in China, this study examines the long-run relationships between housing prices and key macroeconomic variables. Conventional cointegration methods can be misleading, as estimated coefficients often contradict standard demand-supply theory even when statistical tests indicate cointegration. Among the variables, only real income consistently explains regional housing price dynamics, whereas real interest rates and building costs fail to do so consistently across markets. Region-specific models reveal substantial heterogeneity and are both statistically robust and economically meaningful. Panel cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence fail to detect cointegration when such heterogeneity is ignored. These findings highlight the limitations of uniform national approaches and underscore the need for tailored, region-specific housing policies. |
| Keywords: | Housing Market; Cointegration; Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares; Panel Cointegration Test with CSD; Disaggregated Regional Data |
| JEL: | R30 E00 C51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2025-07 |
| By: | Hekmat Alrouh; Tom Emery; Anja Schreijer |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted schooling worldwide, raising concerns about widening educational inequalities. Using population-level administrative data from the Netherlands (N = 1, 471, 217), this study examines how socio-economic disparities in secondary school performance evolved before, during, and after pandemic-related school closures. We analyze final central examination scores for cohorts graduating between 2017 and 2023 across four educational tracks, estimating generalized linear models with interactions between pandemic exposure and key stratification variables: parental education, household income, migration background, and urbanicity. Results show that while average performance partially recovered by 2023, inequalities by parental education and migration background persisted or intensified, particularly in vocational tracks. First-generation students with a non-Western background experienced the largest sustained losses, whereas students in rural areas (previously disadvantaged) narrowed or reversed pre-pandemic performance gaps. Findings suggest that systemic shocks can both exacerbate and recalibrate inequality patterns, depending on the socio-demographic dimension and educational context. We discuss implications for stratification theory, highlighting the role of educational pathways and local contexts in shaping resilience to crisis-induced learning disruptions. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.22136 |
| By: | Kristyna Ters; Konstantin A. Kholodilin |
| Abstract: | We study how rent control and housing rationing shape housing investment and market tightness in Geneva using a VAR on annual data (1994–2022) with generalized impulse responses and Granger causality. We find that housing rationing functions as a binding quantity restriction as it precedes a contraction in new institutional construction and Granger-causes lower vacancy rates. This increased scarcity is an effect amplified by persistent positive ne t migration. At the same time, housing rationing redirects capital toward the intensive margin as both institutional and private investors shift to stock-preserving renovations. Primarily operating through the price channel, rent control induces a transitory, statistically significant rise in private renovation investments and compliance-salient upgrades, rather than sustained new-build activity. Across both instruments, the dominant margin of adjustment is short-run renovation by private owners and institutions, not additions to stock. The policy implication is clear: without complementary, density-enabling approvals and a reduction in rent control, government regulation will continue to reallocate investment from new construction to renovations. This will tighten utilization and increase scarcity in an already demand-pressured market. |
| Keywords: | rent control; housing rationing; real estate finance; construction investments |
| JEL: | C32 O18 R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2143 |
| By: | Amanda Y. Agan; Jennifer L. Doleac; Anna Harvey; Anna Kyriazis; Lauren R. Schechter |
| Abstract: | Many communities across the United States have elected reform-minded prosecutors who seek to safely reduce the reach and burden of the criminal justice system. In this paper, we use variation in the timing of when these prosecutors took office across jurisdictions to empirically characterize their policy changes and estimate downstream effects on prison incarceration rates, local reported crime rates, and drug mortality rates. We find that after a reform prosecutor takes office there are consistent and often statistically significant decreases in charging and conviction rates for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses, particularly misdemeanor drug offenses, but not for violent or felony offenses. We find little to no downstream effects on prison incarceration rates and no effects on local reported crime rates or drug mortality rates. These findings suggest that the types of policies being implemented by reform prosecutors appear to be decreasing the footprint of the criminal justice system without adverse effects on public safety. |
| JEL: | K14 K4 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34364 |
| By: | Griniece Elina; Reid Alasdair; Miedzinski Michal (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "This report explores the role of local and regional actors in mission-oriented innovation and industrial policies. It examines how current mission-oriented approaches engage regions, cities, and rural communities in mission design and implementation, and whether these policies have the potential to contribute to ‘competitive sustainability’ in the European Union (EU). The study finds that despite the development of vertical coordination structures, EU missions and many national mission-oriented innovation policies (MOIPs) lack effective multi-level collaboration mechanisms resulting in limited regional and local ownership of missions. There is a need for a higher degree of involvement of territorial stakeholders in the design and implementation of missions. The study provides lessons for place-based industrial missions, using the example of the automotive industry and sustainable mobility. It argues that a socially concerned industrial mission for the automotive sector should address differing dimensions depending on the type of region, such as urban or rural areas. The report emphasises the need for enabling frameworks that allow regions and cities to co-shape missions, and for mechanisms of ongoing evaluation and learning to capture new ideas and channel them into MOIPs." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143455 |
| By: | Marcos Delprato |
| Abstract: | The learning crisis in the Latin American region (i.e., higher rates of students not reaching basic competencies at secondary level) is worrying, particularly post-pandemic given the stronger role of inequality behind achievement. Within this scenario, the concept of student academic resilience (SAR), students who despite coming from disadvantaged backgrounds reach good performance levels, and an analysis of its determinants, are policy relevant. In this paper, using advancements on explainable machine learning methods (the SHAP method) and relying on PISA 2022 data for 9 countries from the region, I identify leading factors behind SAR using diverse indicators. I find that household inputs (books and digital devices), gender, homework, repetition and work intensity are leading factors for one indicator of academic resilience, whereas for other indicator leading drives fall into the school domain: school size, the ratio of PC connected to the internet, STR and teaching quality proxied by certified teachers and professional development rates and school type (private school). Also, I find negative associations of SAR with the length of school closures and barriers for remote learning during the pandemic. The paper's findings adds to the scare regional literature as well as they contribute to future policy designs where key features behind SAR can be used to lift disadvantaged students from lower achievement groups towards being academic resilient. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.24830 |
| By: | Rosenqvist, Olof (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Sauermann, Jan (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | Substantial and persistent differences in learning outcomes between schools largely caused by school segregation is a recurrent issue in many countries and is seen as a threat against equality of opportunity. Compensatory resource allocation policies are sometimes used to mitigate this problem, but the evidence on the effects of such policies is limited. In this paper, we evaluate a large compensatory grant in Sweden, the Equity grant, which was launched by the government in 2017/2018 with the aim of improving the prospects of success for students with a disadvantaged background. The grant, which has since increased to more than SEK 7 billion per year, is allocated based on a socioeconomic index. We examine the relationship between education provider index and teacher-to-student ratio in the years before and after the introduction of the grant and find that teacher-to-student ratios are significantly more compensatory as the grant is introduced and then gradually expanded. Overall, however, we do not see that the increased teacher resources among providers serving disadvantaged students led to smaller test score differences between providers serving advantaged and disadvantaged students respectively. However, in grade 9, where the effect on class size is most pronounced, there are indications of improved student performance, which also translate into increased high-school enrollment. |
| Keywords: | education providers; disadvantaged students; compensatory resource allocation; equity grant; learning outcomes |
| JEL: | I22 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_015 |
| By: | Ferlenga, Francesco (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona School of Economics, Barcelona Institute of Economics, Spain. CAGE (University of Warwick), UK) |
| Abstract: | Dominant groups worldwide have historically asserted power by constructing in public spaces monuments that glorify their narrative, vis-Ã -vis their opponents'. How do divisive public symbols affect the location choices of those who oppose them? I investigate this historically and today, focusing on Confederate monuments in the US South - erected by southern whites in the early 20th century and opposed by Black Americans due to their connection to slavery. Historically, I show that southern counties with monuments saw a sharp decline in the Black share of the population - driven by out-migration - following their construction. However, monuments themselves are outcomes of underlying ideological shifts, making causal claims problematic. I thus construct an instrument for the stock of Confederate monuments based on transportation costs to a quasi-monopolist producer and the years in which it was in business. The IV analysis confirms that monuments caused a substantial reduction of the Black share of the population. I complement the historical analysis with an online experiment to assess whether monuments still influence migration choices today. I randomize Confederate monuments in the visual depiction of hypothetical destination cities and ask respondents to consider job offers there. Black respondents request higher reservation wages and are significantly less likely to accept offers. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:776 |
| By: | Natee Amornsiripanitch; Judith Ricks |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the May 2023 change in the conforming mortgage upfront guarantee fee schedule. Consistent with incomplete pass-through, lenders raise rejection rates and sell fewer loans to the GSEs when fees rise. For small-dollar mortgages (SDMs), pass-through is near zero and rejection rates are more sensitive to fee increases. This implies that the overall incomplete pass-through is partly driven by liquidity-constrained borrowers and that the inequality in mortgage access via higher rejection rates on SDMs is partly driven by lenders’ inability to pass costs onto SDM borrowers. Without offsetting effects from fee cuts, fee hikes reduced aggregate mortgage origination in 2023 by 8%. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages; pass-through; inequality |
| JEL: | D63 G21 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:101906 |
| By: | Marisa Bucheli; Florencia Amábile; Carmen Estrades |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the existence of gender bias by public school teachers in Uruguay when grading students in the third and sixth years of primary level. The econometric strategy consists of estimating the effect of gender on the course score (non-blind outcome) when controlling by blind test scores and other relevant characteristics. We do not obtain evidence about a bias in the third year. However, we find an average bias in favor of girls in the sixth year, which responds to biases in the middle of the distribution of abilities (the extreme abilities are not gender-biased when assessed). The average results are robust to several checks. We rule out that sixth-year bias is mainly driven by statistical discrimination or explicit beliefs on talent gender stereotypes. |
| Keywords: | gender differences, discrimination, stereotypes, teacher grading, blind-test, education. |
| JEL: | I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:wpaper:0324 |
| By: | Nicola Fontana (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Marco Manacorda (School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London); Gianluca Russo (CUNEF University); Marco Tabellini (Business, Government, and International Economy unit, Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the long-run effects of emigration on economic development. We consider the case of historical mass migration from Italy between 1880 and 1920, when more than 10 million people left the country. We exploit variation in access to information about opportunities abroad to derive an instrument for outmigration at the municipality level. We find that areas with higher historical emigration are poorer, less educated, and less densely populated at the turn of the 21st century. These effects emerged early and persisted, as emigration led to sustained depopulation that, combined with declining fertility and lower human capital investment, constrained the structural transformation from agriculture to manufacturing and services. |
| Keywords: | Emigration; long-run economic development |
| JEL: | F22 N33 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1125 |
| By: | Adam Feher (University of Lausanne); Emilia Garcia-Appendini (Norges Bank; University of St. Gallen - School of Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Roxana Mihet (Swiss Finance Institute - HEC Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | We leverage a comprehensive dataset on U.S. data center energy loads, utility electricity prices, and establishment-level revenues, employment, and carbon emissions from 2010 to 2023 to examine whether rising data center demand affects local retail energy prices or other spillovers. For identification, we employ an instrumental variables continuous difference-indifferences design, exploiting exogenous variation in data center location attractiveness. We find no detectable local spillover effects from data center energy growth. A regional model calibrated to these null results suggests that shocks larger than those observed through 2023 could still result in noticeable increases in household utility bills if not offset by regulation or external supply. |
| Keywords: | AI, energy prices, spillovers, data centers, energy, electricity |
| JEL: | Q55 Q58 D24 O33 O44 L94 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2573 |
| By: | Marcos Delprato |
| Abstract: | The high prevalence of students not achieving the basic competencies in Latin America is concerning. Even more so given the region's deep structural inequalities and the larger post-pandemic regional learning losses. Within this scenario, this paper contributes to the identification of the determinants of bottom and low performers (below level 2) using recent advancements on explainable machine learning methods. In particular, relying on PISA 2022 data for 10 countries and using the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis, I identify critical factors impacting on the student performance across low performers groups. I find that a student with the highest probability of being a not achiever speaks a minority language and had repeated, has no digital devices at home, comes from a poor family and works for payment half of the week, and the school he/she attends has wide disadvantages such as bad school climate, weak ICT infrastructure and poor teaching quality (only a third of teachers being certified). Regarding countries' estimates, I find quite homogeneous patterns as far as global average contribution of top ranked factors is concerned, with repetition at primary, household wealth, and educational ICT inputs being top ten ranked covariates in at least 8 out of the 10 total countries. The paper findings contribute to the broad literature on strategies to identify and to target those most left behind in Latin American education systems. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.24508 |
| By: | Etienne Bacher; Michel Beine; Hillel Rapoport |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of anti-immigration attitudes on immigration plans to Europe. We propose a new instrument for attitudes toward immigration, namely, the number of country nationals killed in terrorist attacks taking place outside of Europe. Our first-stage results confirm that such terrorist attacks increase negative attitudes to immigration in the origin country of the victims. Our second-stage results then show that this higher hostility toward migrants decreases the attractiveness of the country for prospective immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Immigration;Terrorism;Anti-immigration attitudes;Europe |
| JEL: | C1 F2 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-13 |
| By: | Mario Eboli (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Lorenzo Fabiani (Direzione di Polo Medicina, Università di Torino, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study introduces a novel methodology for quantifying impunity at the provincial level, within the same national legal framework. By aggregating indicators of the effectiveness of law enforcement agencies in Italy, we construct two indices meant to measure the likelihood that criminal and civil offenders remain unpunished. The first focuses on the determinants of impunity of criminal misdemeanours, based on four observable variables that reflect the efficacy of the institutional response to crime. The second, broader index aims at more widespread illicit behaviours, both civil and criminal, by adding variables that measure the efficiency of institutions (tribunals and local authorities) in dealing with civil and tax collection disputes. We utilise the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assign weights to the variables that compose the index. Our study reveals significant regional disparities in the levels of impunity, which, on average, decrease with latitude, with northern regions exhibiting lower impunity levels. |
| Keywords: | Impunity; Law enforcement; Institutional quality; Regional disparities |
| JEL: | K42 H11 O43 R10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2025/06 |
| By: | Fabiola M. Alba-Vivar (Wake Forest University) |
| Abstract: | Access to safe and reliable transportation is a critical yet understudied determinant of college enrollment, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where commuting is the norm for students and infrastructure often falls short. This paper examines the effects of major public transit expansions in Lima, Peru—specifically a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system and an elevated metro line—on college enrollment and institutional choices. Leveraging a novel geocoded dataset and a staggered difference-in-differences strategy that compares neighborhoods that gained access to those exposed to planned-but-not-executed lines, I find that improved connectivity increases college enrollment. However, this expansion disproportionately boosts enrollment in lower-quality institutions, especially among women. In contrast, men become more likely to enroll in public colleges, which typically yield in higher post-graduation wages. A college choice model further shows that women are less responsive to potential earnings gains and more sensitive to commuting burdens. These findings underscore that while transit improvements expand access to higher education, gender-specific mobility constraints shape who benefits and how. |
| Keywords: | College Access; College Choice; Transport; Commuting; Gender |
| JEL: | I24 I25 O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:wfuewp:021680 |
| By: | Oliver Cassagneau-Francis (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities); Lindsey Macmillan (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities); Richard Murphy (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin); Gill Wyness (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new approach to test for systematic biases in teacher evaluations. We exploit a setting where teachers were required to assign students both grades and rankings within each grade. Comparing students immediately adjacent to grade boundaries, we apply a local randomization approach to estimate imbalance in student characteristics. Our findings reveal systematic bias favoring higher income and female students. These grading decisions carry real consequences: students just above the grade threshold are significantly more likely to attend university. Our approach can be applied whenever there is a system with many thresholds and subjective rankings. |
| Keywords: | Teacher bias; Gender; Stereotypes; Proportions; Test Optional |
| JEL: | C10 C25 I23 I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:25-12 |
| By: | Nina Biljanovska; Eduardo Espuny Diaz; Amir Kermani; Rui Mano |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how housing market overvaluation—measured by the price-to-rent ratio and its deviations from long-term trends—affects the transmission of monetary policy. Using U.S. metropolitan-level data and three measures of monetary policy shocks, we find that house prices respond more strongly to policy rate changes in overvalued markets. Examining buyer heterogeneity, we show that investor demand, proxied by non-owner-occupied purchases, declines more sharply after monetary tightening in these markets. These results are consistent with models of extrapolative beliefs and suggest that monetary policy can serve a stabilizing role during housing booms. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Overvalued Housing Markets; House Price Expectations |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/207 |
| By: | Adam Storeygard |
| Abstract: | This brief survey reviews recent work on transportation in poor and middle-income countries. After reviewing a few key global facts and taking stock of the data available, it focuses on eight key themes that are emphasized in this literature relative to work on transportation in rich countries. In urban areas, these are private/informal transit, interactions with other informal markets, gender, bus rapid transit, and quantity-based congestion policy. Elsewhere, they are the legacy of colonialism, rural roads, and potential negative effects of improved transportation infrastructure. |
| JEL: | O10 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34354 |
| By: | Raelene Angle-Graves; Julianne Baer |
| Abstract: | As of June 30, the amount of commercial real estate loans whose lending terms were modified by U.S. banks had risen 66% over the past year. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate (CRE) loans; loan modifications |
| Date: | 2025–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:101910 |
| By: | Ethan Kaplan; Jörg L. Spenkuch; Cody Tuttle |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of education on voter turnout and partisanship using a regression discontinuity design based on school-entry cutoffs and exact date of birth. Drawing on nationwide administrative voter registration data, we find that individuals who were slotted to enter school one year earlier are more likely to vote and more likely to register as independents. These reduced-form effects may be driven by changes in educational attainment or by differences in the quality of individuals’ educational experiences. We leverage age-related heterogeneity in effect sizes to isolate the role of educational attainment. Our results imply that an additional year of schooling increases turnout by about 3 percentage points. |
| JEL: | D72 I20 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34355 |
| By: | Zuchanek, Kevin J. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how translating school assignment information into parents' native languages affects school choice outcomes in Bremen, a city state in Germany, where a strategyincentivizing immediate acceptance mechanism is used. While translated information was made available to non-German-speaking families, the coverage did not extend to all commonly spoken languages. Leveraging administrative data, I employ a difference-in-differences approach that exploits exogenous variation from students whose language spoken at home is not included in these translations. The results show that the access to translated information about the assignment mechanism increases the likelihood of ranking and attending academic schools, as well as self-selection to schools with a more favourable composition, suggesting improved comprehension of the admission process. Effects are stronger for high-performing students, females, and students eligible for welfare benefits. This study contributes to the literature by showing that reducing information gaps through native-language provision can shape school choice behaviour and improve equitable access to centralized school admissions. |
| Abstract: | Diese Arbeit untersucht, wie die Übersetzung von Informationen zum Zuweisungsverfahren in die Herkunftssprachen der Eltern die Ergebnisse der Schulwahl in Bremen beeinflusst. Beim Übergang von der Primar- zur Sekundarschule wird ein Zuweisungsverfahren angewandt, das Anreize für strategisches Verhalten setzt. Während einigen Sprachgruppen Übersetzungen zur Verfügung gestellt wurden, umfasste die Abdeckung nicht alle gesprochenen Sprachen. Unter Verwendung administrativer Daten setzt die Arbeit einen Difference-in-Differences-Ansatz ein, der die exogene Variation ausnutzt, die sich aus Schüler*innen ergibt, deren Herkunftssprache nicht in diesen Übersetzungen berücksichtigt wurde. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Zugang zu übersetzten Informationen über das Zuweisungsverfahren die Wahrscheinlichkeit erhöht, Gymnasien gegenüber Oberschulen zu priorisieren und auch zu besuchen sowie Schulen mit einer günstigeren sozialen Zusammensetzung zu wählen, was auf ein verbessertes Verständnis des Aufnahmeprozesses hindeutet. Die Effekte sind stärker bei leistungsstarken Schüler*innen, Mädchen sowie bei Schüler*innen mit Anspruch auf Sozialleistungen. Diese Studie trägt zum wissenschaftlichen Diskurs bei, indem sie zeigt, dass der Abbau von Informationslücken durch die Bereitstellung von Informationen in unterschiedlichen Herkunftssprachen das Schulwahlverhalten beeinflussen und den chancengerechten Zugang zu zentralisierten Schulvergaben verbessern kann. |
| Keywords: | school choice, two-sided matching, immediate acceptance, information intervention |
| JEL: | I21 I24 C78 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:328238 |
| By: | Saraswat, Deepak (University of Connecticut); Sabarwal, Shwetlena (World Bank); Lacey, Lindsey (Allegheny County Department of Human Services); Jha, Natasha (University of Notre Dame); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Cohen, Rachel (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Nearly 200 million children under five in low- and middle-income countries face developmental deficits despite growing access to early childhood services. We report evidence from a randomized controlled trial (N=3, 131 children in 201 schools) in Nepal’s government system that tested three models combining classroom quality with parental engagement. All teachers received a 15-day training on pedagogy, standards, and caregiver outreach, after which schools were randomly assigned to models where caregiver sessions were led by teachers alone, teachers supported with in-class helpers, or external facilitators. The program raised children’s developmental outcomes by 0.10–0.20 standard deviations and improved caregiver engagement by similar magnitudes, with strongest effects when teachers received support that preserved classroom quality while engaging families. Gains were concentrated among disadvantaged households, underscoring the potential to reduce early inequalities. Mechanism analysis shows that the program shifted home and school inputs from substitutes to complements, creating reinforcing pathways for child development. |
| Keywords: | non-cognitive skills, cognitive skills, early childhood development, Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), Nepal |
| JEL: | J13 J24 I21 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18159 |
| By: | Carrillo, Bladimir; Branco, Danyelle; Ratcher, Laísa; Nunes, Leticia; Fontes, Luiz Felipe; Parfitt, Rafaela; Bauhoff, Sebastian; Duryea, Suzanne |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of racial concordance between mothers and healthcare providers on childbirth practices and health outcomes in Brazilian public hospitals. Using a novel dataset linking patients and providers across 15 million births, we compare deliveries where providers and patients share the same race to those where they do not. We find that racial concordance slightly increases vaginal delivery anesthesia use, emergency medication and modestly reduces cesarean section rates, tubal ligation, hospital stay length, and medical exams performed. We also find evidence that these effects are especially pronounced among Black mothers attended by Black providers. Lastly, our results indicate no significant impacts on maternal or infant health outcomes. Our findings contribute to the literature on healthcare disparities by highlighting how racial concordance may improve care delivery patterns without necessarily translating into immediate health outcome differences. |
| Keywords: | Racial concordance;Healthcare disparities;Obstetric care;Public Health |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J15 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14290 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a unified framework for identifying spatial and temporal boundaries of treatment effects in difference-in-differences designs. Starting from fundamental fluid dynamics equations (Navier-Stokes), we derive conditions under which treatment effects decay exponentially in space and time, enabling researchers to calculate explicit boundaries beyond which effects become undetectable. The framework encompasses both linear (pure diffusion) and nonlinear (advection-diffusion with chemical reactions) regimes, with testable scope conditions based on dimensionless numbers from physics (P\'eclet and Reynolds numbers). We demonstrate the framework's diagnostic capability using air pollution from coal-fired power plants. Analyzing 791 ground-based PM$_{2.5}$ monitors and 189, 564 satellite-based NO$_2$ grid cells in the Western United States over 2019-2021, we find striking regional heterogeneity: within 100 km of coal plants, both pollutants show positive spatial decay (PM$_{2.5}$: $\kappa_s = 0.00200$, $d^* = 1, 153$ km; NO$_2$: $\kappa_s = 0.00112$, $d^* = 2, 062$ km), validating the framework. Beyond 100 km, negative decay parameters correctly signal that urban sources dominate and diffusion assumptions fail. Ground-level PM$_{2.5}$ decays approximately twice as fast as satellite column NO$_2$, consistent with atmospheric transport physics. The framework successfully diagnoses its own validity in four of eight analyzed regions, providing researchers with physics-based tools to assess whether their spatial difference-in-differences setting satisfies diffusion assumptions before applying the estimator. Our results demonstrate that rigorous boundary detection requires both theoretical derivation from first principles and empirical validation of underlying physical assumptions. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.11013 |
| By: | Sturm, Patrick |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates workplace peer efects in retirement by leveraging a German pension reform that eliminated a widely used early retirement option for women. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, I compare women's retirement behavior by exploiting variation in the share of their workplace peers who were afected by the reform based on their birth date. I fnd signifcant and robust peer efects: women are more likely to delay their retirement when their peers extend their employment due to the reform. Investigating potential underlying mechanisms, I provide suggestive evidence for information transmission and social norms about working in old-age. In addition, employer characteristics play an important role in shaping these peer efects. Overall, the fndings highlight the importance of accounting for workplace peer efects when evaluating the broader labor supply impacts of pension policies. |
| Keywords: | peer efects, retirement policies, social interactions |
| JEL: | D22 J08 J26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuewep:328243 |
| By: | Blanden, Jo (University of Surrey); Cassagneau-Francis, Oliver (University College London); Macmillan, Lindsey (University College London); Wyness, Gill (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Inequality in college attendance is a key driver of intergenerational mobility. We focus upstream to examine how elite high-schools – specifically UK private (feepaying) schools – shape university destinations across the achievement distribution. Using linked-administrative data, we show the main advantage conferred by private schools is not access to elite colleges for their best students, but that lower-achieving students are more likely to ‘overmatch’: lower-achieving pupils from private schools enrol in university courses around 15 percentiles higher ranked than similarly qualified state-school students. Examining mechanisms, we show that this overmatch is driven largely by differences in application behaviour. |
| Keywords: | mismatch, college choice, educational economics, higher education, private schools |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18171 |
| By: | Abigail Stocker |
| Abstract: | Maternity benefits are targeted at improving both children's and mothers' outcomes, but many women in the informal sector are not eligible for traditional maternity leave programs. This paper investigates the impact of IGMSY, a unique maternity benefits program in India, on early childhood education. The program launched in 2011, was piloted in 52 out of India's 640 districts, and provided cash transfers to women for their first and second live births regardless of employment status. Using a difference-in-differences approach across districts and cohorts, I find that the program increased preschool enrollment by 9 percentage points but did not increase enrollment, reading, or math competency in primary school. The effects on enrollment are strongest for children from poorer households, likely due to both improvements in health-related outcomes and increases in income. |
| Keywords: | maternity benefits; cash transfer; education; preschool; mothers |
| JEL: | I25 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:173 |
| By: | Johan Miorner (Department of Human Geography, Lund University); Christian Binz (Eawag- Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology); Shreya Nath (Water, Environment, Land and Livelihoods Labs (WELL Labs)); Sneha Singh (Water, Environment, Land and Livelihoods Labs (WELL Labs)); Bernhard Truffer (Eawag- Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Middle-income cities (MICs) are characterized by rapid urbanisation, expanding innovation capacities, and relatively weak path dependencies in their urban infrastructure systems. This could create unique opportunities for transformative leapfrogging – bypassing conventional infrastructure solutions in favour of novel, more sustainable approaches. Yet, most MICs tend to replicate global gold standards rather than embark on complex innovation trajectories. We argue that conventional urban planning and transitions concepts are ill-suited to address how to foster transformative leapfrogging in MICs and develop a novel analytical framework that combines socio-technical transitions theory with insights from innovation systems research. The framework highlights the creative problem-solving capacity of actors in dynamic MICs and specifies under what conditions experimentation with second-best solutions may lead to new transformative infrastructure templates. We apply the framework to a case study of how decentralized wastewater treatment and reuse systems have gained significance in Bengaluru (India). Drawing on 54 interviews, 23 site visits and 6 workshops, we show how regime-defying policies were introduced in response to development pressures and outline the factors triggering a de facto experimental space, in which actors could experiment with new solutions at scale. We then show that systemic barriers still hamper their maturing. We sketch an alternative approach to transformative leapfrogging in MICs that represents a shift from conventional planning logics and niche-focused transition models towards actively leveraging the ingenuity and problem-solving capacity generated within rapidly evolving urban contexts. |
| Keywords: | urban infrastructure, transformative leapfrogging, innovation, water reuse, Bengaluru |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoe:wpaper:2503 |
| By: | Ferlenga, Francesco (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Kang, Stephanie (Market Development, ISO New England) |
| Abstract: | We study how expanding immigrants' rights affects their political and social integration by leveraging Romania's 2007 EU accession, which granted Romanian immigrants in Italy municipal voting and residency rights. Using municipality-level event studies, we find: (1) Enfranchisement increased the election of Romanian-born councilors - especially in competitive races - despite limited changes in candidacy rates. It also increased Romanian turnout, suggesting that electoral gains stem from an expanded voter base. An instrumented difference-in-differences analysis shows this is driven by pre-existing Romanian residents, not new arrivals. (2) Consent to organ donation rose among Romanians post-2007, indicating that the expansion of rights extends to prosocial behavior. (3) Nonetheless, immigrant presence continues to raise support for right-leaning parties and security spending while reducing social spending, highlighting persistent native backlash that outweighs immigrant political influence. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:775 |
| By: | Bocar A. Ba; Patton Chen; Tony Cheng; Martha C. Eies; Justin E. Holz |
| Abstract: | Cities across America are adopting civilian crisis response programs as alternatives to traditional policing, yet causal evidence on their impact and cost-effectiveness is scarce. This paper evaluates Durham, North Carolina’s HEART program, which diverts nonviolent 911 calls from police. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that HEART reduces crime reports, arrests, and response times—primarily through civilian phone and in-person responses, rather than police-civilian co-responses. The program increases future 911 calls, which suggests it fosters public trust. Based on an original contingent valuation survey and applying the marginal value of public funds framework, we conclude that HEART is a fiscally self-sustainable intervention. |
| JEL: | H10 H4 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34344 |
| By: | Shanjukta Nath; Jiwon Hong; Jae Ho Chang; Keith Warren; Subhadeep Paul |
| Abstract: | We find AI embeddings obtained using a pre-trained transformer-based Large Language Model (LLM) of 80, 000-120, 000 written affirmations and correction exchanges among residents in low-security correctional facilities to be highly predictive of recidivism. The prediction accuracy is 30\% higher with embedding vectors than with only pre-entry covariates. However, since the text embedding vectors are high-dimensional, we perform Zero-Shot classification of these texts to a low-dimensional vector of user-defined classes to aid interpretation while retaining the predictive power. To shed light on the social dynamics inside the correctional facilities, we estimate peer effects in these LLM-generated numerical representations of language with a multivariate peer effect model, adjusting for network endogeneity. We develop new methodology and theory for peer effect estimation that accommodate sparse networks, multivariate latent variables, and correlated multivariate outcomes. With these new methods, we find significant peer effects in language usage for interaction and feedback. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.20634 |
| By: | Roth, Jakob; Schwab, Laura; Hintermann, Beat; Götschi, Thomas; Meister, Adrian; Meyer de Freitas, Lucas; Axhausen, Kay W. |
| Abstract: | This study presents results from a randomized controlled trial involving 1, 085 participants in Switzerland that have access to an E-bike, a car, and public transport. The participants’ transport choices are monitored by means of a GPS-based tracking app. The treatment consists in a monetary incentive that approximates the main external costs and benefits associated with transport in the spirit of a Pigovian tax. This tax reduces transport-related external costs by 6.9 %, which corresponds to 78 Swiss francs per person and year (currently equivalent to 94 US dollars). The main underlying mechanism is a mode shift away from driving towards E-biking, public transport and walking. The results are primarily driven by individuals who own an S-pedelec with support up to 45 km/h, rather than users of the more common E-bikes that provide support up to 25 km/h. The pricing also induces a travel shift towards less congested time windows |
| Keywords: | Transport, Field experiment, GPS tracking, bicycle, E-bike, external costs, Pigovian taxation, transport pricing |
| JEL: | H23 H31 I18 Q54 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/05 |
| By: | Hannes Wallimann; Anna Mehr |
| Abstract: | The impact evaluation of female sports events remains an important yet neglected area of research. To fill this gap, this working paper provides a timely assessment of the 2025 UEFA Women's European Championship (WEURO) in Switzerland-the largest women-specific sports event in Europe with more than 657, 000 spectators. Using city-level data on hotel overnight stays, we apply the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences approach of Arkhangelsky et al. (2021) to compare WEURO host cities with non-host destinations. In summary, our results do not support strong claims of large tourism impacts but rather point to a small positive effect. Sensitivity analyses also suggest positive effects. However, confidence intervals permit firm conclusions only for the main venues, indicating an increase in overnight stays of 1.6% attributable to the WEURO. Overall, our findings indicate positive but modest tourism impacts of the WEURO and outline a framework for further policy evaluation of sports events. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21421 |
| By: | Timothy G. Conley; Bill Dupor; Rong Li; Yijiang Zhou |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework that jointly identifies local and aggregate effects of government transfer shocks with cross-state spillovers. Using the Romer–Romer Social Security transfer-adjustment series and state personal income, we combine aggregate time-series variation with cross-sectional exposure to recover the local, spillover, and aggregate multipliers. The specification is aggregation-consistent: state coefficients sum to the aggregate response, making the decomposition of the national effect into local and spillover components transparent. The aggregate multiplier is positive and roughly half the local multiplier, with both statistically different from zero. Spillover estimates are negative but imprecise. Estimates are robust to controls for business cycle factors. |
| Keywords: | local-spillover decomposition; government transfers; social security |
| JEL: | E62 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101912 |
| By: | Treb Allen; Winston Chen; Suresh Naidu |
| Abstract: | What would the antebellum American economy have looked like without slavery? Using new micro-data on the U.S. economy in 1860, we document that where free and enslaved workers live and how much they earn correlates strongly—but differently—with geographic proxies for agricultural productivity, disease, and ease of slave escape. To explain these patterns, we build a quantitative spatial model of slavery, where slaveholders coerce enslaved workers into supplying more labor, capture the proceeds of their labor, and assign them to sectors and occupations that maximize owner profits rather than worker welfare. Combining theory and data, we then quantify how dismantling the institution of slavery affected the spatial economy. We find that the economic impacts of emancipation are substantial, generating welfare gains for the enslaved of roughly 1, 200%, while reducing welfare of free workers by 0.7% and eliminating slaveholder profit. Aggregate GDP rises by 9.1%, with a contraction in agricultural productivity counteracted by an expansion in manufacturing and services driven by an exodus of formerly enslaved workers out of agriculture and into the U.S. North. |
| JEL: | J47 N51 O17 R1 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34356 |
| By: | Chenlan Wang; Jimin Han; Diana Jue-Rajasingh |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a game-theoretic model and an agent-based model to study group formation driven by resource pooling, spatial cohesion, and heterogeneity. We focus on cross-sector partnerships (CSPs) involving public, private, and nonprofit organizations, each contributing distinct resources. Group formation occurs as agents strategically optimize their choices in response to others within a competitive setting. We prove the existence of stable group equilibria and simulate formation dynamics under varying spatial and resource conditions. The results show that limited individual resources lead to groups that form mainly among nearby actors, while abundant resources allow groups to move across larger distances. Increased resource heterogeneity and spatial proximity promote the formation of larger and more diverse groups. These findings reveal key trade-offs shaping group size and composition, guiding strategies for effective cross-sector collaborations and multi-agent systems. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.18551 |
| By: | Boss, Ruchira; Hoddinott, John; Colen, Liesbeth |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive evidence linking urbanization, market access, and rising incomes to dietary transitions and nutritional outcomes, both globally and within India, Indigenous communities, particularly in the North East Region (NER) of India, have received little attention in this context. This paper examines how income and market access shape the diets and nutrition of Indigenous Naga women in a geographically isolated and culturally distinct setting, providing a unique context to study the early stages of dietary and nutritional change. Using primary survey data from more than 800 women across cities, villages, and remote hamlets, we find that most women meet the minimum dietary diversity threshold and maintain adequate diet quality even in low-income, low-market access settings. However, higher income is consistently associated with more diverse diets, particularly through increased consumption of oils, meats, and pulses. Higher market access is associated with increased frequency of oil and fat consumption, reflecting a shift away from traditional food practices. Women in highaccess regions also exhibit higher Body Mass Index (BMI), indicating a shift toward overweight and obesity with increased proximity to food markets. By focusing on an isolated and understudied region, this study provides new evidence on the dual role of income and market access in shaping diets and nutrition, while highlighting the importance of Indigenous food systems in ensuring adequate diet quality. These findings have broader relevance for communities and regions undergoing similar transitions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gausfs:373336 |