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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Adam Crowe (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School); Alan S Duncan (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin University); Steven Rowley (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School) |
| Abstract: | Housing has emerged as one of the most urgent and complex challenges facing Western Australia. From surging rents to escalating house prices, the state’s housing market is being stretched to its limits, placing acute pressure on households, communities and service providers alike. The issue is not simply one of affordability, but of access, equity and sustainability. Wherever you turn, the signs of a housing system under strain are impossible to ignore. This latest Housing Affordability in Western Australia 2025 report provides a comprehensive and evidence-based response to WA’s housing situation, offering critical insights into homelessness and housing needs. It provides a fresh analysis of the supply and demand dynamics and the changing geography of WA’s rental stock supply, bringing new data to understand better the real cost pressures and housing circumstances faced by families across the country. The report highlights that WA’s housing market is not keeping pace with the state’s record population growth. While completions have reached a seven-year high, the shortfall remains in the thousands, tightening supply, driving up costs, and locking out a growing number of people from home ownership or secure rental. For renters, especially those on low incomes or in single-parent households, the challenge is acute. And homelessness is becoming both more entrenched and more widespread, with rising demand from women, older people, and even those in full-time work. |
| Keywords: | housing supply, housing demand, urban planning, construction costs, housing affordability, rental stress, housing costs, rental bonds, population growth |
| JEL: | L74 R3 N67 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ozl:bcecrs:fwa19 |
| By: | Jones, Tod; Volgger, Michael; Niner, Sara; James, Amity; Cheer, Joseph; Adams, Salome; Baron, Paul |
| Abstract: | This research looked at ways seasonal and vulnerable workers in regional Australia can be better housed. It provides a policy framework for government and industry stakeholders to ensure a healthy, safe and productive workforce. Many businesses in regional Australia rely on seasonal workers, including workers from migration schemes. These workers help regional areas stay economically competitive. Changes in regional housing markets have greatly increased the cost of housing. As a result, a lack of affordable and available housing often places seasonal and vulnerable workers in inappropriate and poor-quality housing. This also makes it hard for businesses to attract and retain workers in regional parts of Australia. |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gu3q8_v1 |
| By: | Francisco B. Galarza Arellano; Jonatan Amaya |
| Abstract: | We study how the interaction between the protective effect of local institutions and the amplifying effect of road infrastructure jointly shape deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon. Using data from 289 districts, we construct a local institutional index via principal components analysis and estimate a Spatial Durbin Model to capture both direct and indirect (spillover) effects on cumulative deforestation between 2001 and 2023. Our results show that stronger local institutions are associated with a 5.51 p.p. reduction in cumulative deforestation, 1 p.p. stemming from a district’s own institutions (direct effect) and 4.51 p.p. from those of neighboring districts (indirect effect). However, this protective role is entirely offset by proximity to paved roads, suggesting that road infrastructure significantly undermines institutional effectiveness. Our findings indicate that effective responses to deforestation cannot rely on isolated local actions. Because institutional spillovers extend across district borders, strengthening local governance requires coordination among municipalities. At the same time, road development—while important for connectivity and growth—can undermine institutional capacity to protect forests if not carefully managed. An integrated policy framework that combines institutional strengthening with strategic infrastructure planning is therefore essential to ensure that road investments reinforce, rather than weaken, collective efforts to curb forest loss. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Institutions, Roads, Amazon, Spatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:211 |
| By: | Xiyuan Ren; Joseph Y. J. Chow |
| Abstract: | As cities grapple with traffic congestion and service inequities, mobility hubs offer a scalable solution to align increasing travel demand with sustainability goals. However, evaluating their impacts remains challenging due to the lack of behavioral models that integrate large-scale travel patterns with real-world hub usage. This study presents a novel data fusion approach that incorporates observed mobility hub usage into a mode choice model estimated with synthetic trip data. We identify trips potentially affected by mobility hubs and construct a multimodal sub-choice set, then calibrate hub-specific parameters using on-site survey data and ground truth trip counts. The enhanced model is used to evaluate mobility hub impacts on potential demand, mode shift, reduced vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and increased consumer surplus (CS). We apply this method to a case study in the Capital District, NY, using data from a survey conducted by the Capital District Transportation Authority (CDTA) and a mode choice model estimated using Replica Inc. synthetic data. The two implemented hubs located near UAlbany Downtown Campus and in Downtown Cohoes are projected to generate 8.83 and 6.17 multimodal trips per day, reduce annual VMT by 20.37 and 13.16 thousand miles, and increase daily CS by $4, 000 and $1, 742, respectively. An evaluation of potential hub candidates in the Albany-Schenectady-Troy metropolitan area with the estimated models demonstrates that hubs located along intercity corridors and at urban peripheries, supporting park-and-ride P+R patterns, yield the most significant behavioral impacts. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.08366 |
| By: | Lukas Hauck, Nicola Stalder, Simon Büchler, Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | Tenancy rent control limits rent increases for sitting tenants while allowing market resets at vacancy. When demand grows or household composition differs across segments, spillovers raise rents in the unregulated market. We study its general equilibrium effects in Switzerland, where a nationwide regime meets large spatial variation. Linking administrative records on all households from 2010–2022 to detailed unit data and market rents, we estimate a structural sorting model with heterogeneous preferences, correcting for selection and price endogeneity. Counterfactual simulations show unregulated rents would be 8–21 percent lower, with the largest drops in supply-inelastic cities. Older, lower-income, and less educated households gain most, while newcomers face higher entry rents. The policy reduces mobility and induces space overconsumption, generating efficiency losses. |
| Keywords: | Rent Control, Residential Mobility, Inequality |
| JEL: | H7 H72 R23 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2507 |
| By: | Klaus Desmet; Dávid Krisztián Nagy; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how human capital shapes the economic geography of development. We develop a model in which the cost of acquiring human capital varies across space, and regions with higher human capital innovate more. Locations are spatially connected through migration and trade. There are localized agglomeration economies, and human-capital-augmenting technology diffuses across space. Using high-resolution data on income and schooling, we quantify and simulate the model at the 1° x 1° resolution for the entire globe. Over the span of two centuries, the model predicts strong persistence in the spatial distribution of development — unlike spatial dynamic models without human capital, which predict convergence. Proportionally lowering the cost of education in sub-Saharan Africa or Central and South Asia raises local outcomes but reduces global welfare, whereas the same policy in Latin America improves global outcomes. An alternative policy equalizing educational costs across sub-Saharan Africa generates relatively worse outcomes, as population reallocates within the region toward less productive areas. Central to these results is the estimated negative correlation between the education costs and local fundamentals, as well as inefficiencies in the spatial allocation due to externalities. |
| JEL: | E24 F10 I24 J24 O11 O18 O33 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34310 |
| By: | Xiyuan Ren; Zhenglei Ji; Joseph Y. J. Chow |
| Abstract: | Early evaluations of NYC's congestion pricing program indicate overall improvements in vehicle speed and transit ridership. However, its distributional impacts remain understudied, as does the design of compensatory transit strategies to mitigate potential welfare losses. This study identifies population segments and regions most affected by congestion pricing, and evaluates how welfare losses can be compensated through transit improvements. We estimate joint mode and destination models using aggregated synthetic trips in New York and New Jersey and calibrate toll-related parameters with traffic counts reported by the MTA. The results show that the program leads to an accessibility-related welfare loss of approximately $240 million per year, which is considerably lower than the gains from toll revenues: the gross revenue estimated by our models ($1.077 billion per year) and the net revenue projected by the MTA ($450 million per year). However, these benefits gains conceal significant disparities. Welfare losses are concentrated in Upper Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Hudson County, NJ, particularly among travelers less able to shift to transit or alternative destinations. For NYC residents, compensating aggregate welfare loss requires a 0.48-minute reduction in transit wait time or a $135.59 million annual fare subsidy. Ensuring accessibility gains for all populations and counties (Pareto improving) requires a 1-2 minute reduction in wait time combined with an annual subsidy of about $100-300 million. For New Jersey residents, achieving aggregate welfare gains primarily through fare discounts (requiring $108.53 million per year) is more feasible and efficient; however, uniform discounts should be replaced by targeted mechanisms such as origin-based fare reductions or commuter pass bundles. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.06416 |
| By: | Mahmoud Arbouch Eduardo Amaral Haddad; Eduardo Amaral Haddad |
| Abstract: | AMorocco’s strong macroeconomic performance over the past two decades—anchored in infrastructure modernization, industrial diversification, and renewable energy leadership—has positioned it as a success story in the Global South. Yet these achievements mask persistent regional disparities that undermine inclusive development. Coastal regions such as Casablanca-Settat and Tangier-Tétouan-Al Hoceima dominate economic activity, while hinterland and southern provinces face structural disadvantages in employment, connectivity, and public services. Drawing on the Williamson hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship between growth and inequality, this policy brief situates Morocco on the upward slope of rising regional disparities. It examines the historical roots of spatial imbalance, the limits of decentralization, and the structural concentration of growth in metropolitan hubs. While recent reforms, including the New Development Model (2021) and the Investment Charter (2022), aim to foster territorial equity, sustained progress will require a shift toward territorially sensitive policies that empower regions to drive more balanced and inclusive national development. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:p45_25 |
| By: | Bertoni, Marco; Heller-Sahlgren, Gabriel; Silva, Olmo |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of attending two secondary free schools in England – new autonomous state-funded start-ups – using admission lotteries and a distance-based regression discontinuity design. We characterise each school’s ethos through text analysis of vision statements: one follows a 'no excuses' paradigm common among US charter schools; the other adopts a 'classical liberal', knowledge-rich approach. These features distinguish them from each other and from counterfactual schools attended by rejected applicants. Despite pedagogical differences, both schools significantly improve test scores, reduce absences, and lower student mobility. Our findings support policies promoting horizontal differentiation in publicly funded education. |
| Keywords: | school autonomy; quasi-markets; free schools; achievement |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129647 |
| By: | Jonathan Vogel; Andreas Kost; Sigurd Galaasen; Joan Monràs |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of immigration on native labor-market outcomes? An extensive literature identifies the differential impact of immigration on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant labor (supply exposure). But immigrants consume in addition to producing output. Despite this, no literature identifies the impact on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant consumption (demand exposure). We study native labor-market effects of supply and demand exposures to immigration. Theoretically, we formalize both measures of exposure and solve for their effects on native wages. Empirically, we combine employer-employee data with a newly collected dataset covering electronic payments for the universe of residents in Norway to measure supply and demand exposures of all native workers to immigration induced by EU expansions in 2004 and 2007. We find large, positive, and persistent effects of demand exposure to EU expansion on native worker income. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| JEL: | J2 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1908 |
| By: | André De palma (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Road congestion and deteriorating infrastructure impose substantial economic and social costs, with estimates reaching up to 1% of GDP in highly congested economies. At the same time, public finances are increasingly constrained, and reliance on the “user-pays” principle has grown, prompting greater use of tolling schemes and private participation in financing, operating, and maintaining road networks. This paper examines the interaction between road maintenance, capacity, and pricing decisions in contexts where different operators share responsibilities. We analyze whether private maintenance and tolling strategies converge toward socially optimal outcomes, and under what conditions misalignments occur. Policy implications for optimal pricing, investment incentives, and the design of capacity and maintenance are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Road maintenance, Road capacity, Traffic congestion, Tolls, Perfect Competition, Multi-level governance, Infrastructure finance |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 H54 Q54 L91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2025-14 |
| By: | Björkegren, Daniel; Duhaut, Alice; Nagpal, Geetika; Tsivanidis, Nick |
| Abstract: | Private minibuses dominate transport in many developing country cities. They serve 62% of motorized trips in Lagos, the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses original panel data to measure how private minibuses respond to the rollout of a new public bus network. When the government enters a route, minibuses depart less frequently, drivers’ profits fall, and drivers switch to connected routes, reducing prices. A custom application was developed to estimate how commuters trade off prices and wait times using a RCT. The private response harms commuters on treated routes, who wait longer, but benefits those on connected routes, who face only lower prices. The disciplining effect of the new system on prices dominates on average, so that commuters overall benefit from the introduction of public transit, while minibus drivers lose revenue. Over one quarter of the commute welfare gains of building the public transit system arise from the response of private transit. Drivers lose welfare equal to 60% of the commuter gains. |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11229 |
| By: | Marika Moscatelli (Venice School of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Michele Andrea Tagliavini (Venice School of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Stefano Micelli (Venice School of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | Stakeholder engagement plays a critical role in the success of urban regeneration projects, particularly when addressing the complexities of social, cultural, and environmental challenges. This paper explores stakeholder engagement processes within the Bauhaus of the Seas Sails (BoS) project, a European New European Bauhaus (NEB) initiative focused on regenerating coastal urban areas through creativity, sustainability, and inclusivity. By analyzing stakeholder interactions across seven European cities, the paper examines the tools, methodologies, and challenges encountered in fostering meaningful collaborations among diverse actors. The study highlights successes, such as fostering interdisciplinary partnerships, while identifying barriers like power imbalances and participation fatigue. Key insights include the need for adaptable tools that account for local contexts and the importance of trust-building strategies to achieve long-term urban resilience. This paper contributes to the broader discourse on stakeholder engagement by offering replicable tools and reflections for future urban regeneration projects. |
| Keywords: | Stakeholder engagement, Urban regeneration, Co-creation, Participatory processes, Civic engagement |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:222 |
| By: | Brecht Verbeken; Arne Vanhoyweghen; Vincent Ginis |
| Abstract: | Metro Line 3 in Brussels is one of Europe's most debated infrastructure projects, marked by escalating costs, delays, and uncertainty over completion. Yet no public accessibility appraisal exists to inform this policy debate. This paper provides a scenario-based assessment of the spatial and distributional accessibility impacts of Metro 3 using schedule-based public transport data. Official GTFS feeds from all regional operators were combined and adapted to represent three scenarios: (i) the current network, (ii) partial implementation of Metro 3 (conversion of the southern premetro section), and (iii) full implementation to Bordet. Accessibility was measured as public transport travel time between 647 evenly spaced 500 m points covering the Brussels-Capital Region. Simulations were conducted for morning, evening, and weekend midday periods, each with three departure times (t-10, t, t+10), capturing robustness to short-term timetable variation. Results show substantial but uneven accessibility gains, with the largest improvements occurring in neighborhoods with below-average incomes. Temporal robustness analysis highlights variability in accessibility outcomes, underscoring the need to account for uncertainty in departure timing. These findings suggest that Metro 3 has the potential to reduce socio-spatial inequalities in accessibility, providing transparent evidence for a project where public debate is dominated by cost concerns. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.22223 |
| By: | Xavier Freixas; Luz Mary Pinzón |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between ï¬ nancial development and economic growth, using data from Spanish provinces during a period marked by signiï¬ cant ï¬ nancial events: banking deregulation (1988), a credit and housing boom (2001–2007), and a severe banking crisis (2008–2012). The study pursues three key objectives. First, it examines the impact of credit— distinct from the broader ï¬ nancial environment and institutional infrastructure (e.g., property rights enforcement, accounting standards)—on long-term real per capita GDP growth. Second, it analyzes whether this effect diminishes as the level of credit increases. Third, it evaluates the role of mortgage lending in shaping long-term growth. Our ï¬ ndings indicate that credit exerts a positive influence on both ï¬ ve- and ten-year cumulative growth rates, independent of the broader ï¬ nancial environment, which is largely homogeneous across provinces.At the same time, we observe that the marginal contribution of credit to long-term growth declines as credit levels rise.Despite this diminishing marginal effect, we ï¬ nd no evidence of a “too much of a good thing†effect as: higher credit-to-GDP ratios continue to exert a consistently positive impact. Finally, regarding mortgage credit, we do not ï¬ nd any positive effect of this variable on long-term growth. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1919 |
| By: | Jeffry Frieden (Harvard University); Richard S.Grossman (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Daniel Lowery (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how Reconstruction affected Black socio-economic advancement after the American Civil War. We use the location of federal troops and Freedmen’s Bureau offices to indicate more intensive federal enforcement of civil rights. We find that Black people made greater socio-economic advances where Reconstruction was more rigorously enforced, and that these effects persisted at least until the early twentieth century, although these advances were weaker in cotton-plantation zones. We suggest a mechanism leading from greater Black political power to higher local property taxes, through to higher levels of Black schooling and greater Black socio-economic achievement.. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2025-009 |
| By: | Thomas Michael Pugh; Saarah Sheikh; Taylor Webley |
| Abstract: | Household savings in Canada have increased significantly since 2019, especially among homeowners without a mortgage. We assess how savings buffers can mitigate households’ financial risk in relation to asset repricing, mortgage payment renewal and unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Credit and credit aggregates; Financial stability; Housing; Recent economic and financial developments |
| JEL: | D3 D31 E2 E21 G5 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:25-23 |
| By: | Hainmueller, Jens; Marbach, Moritz; Hangartner, Dominik; Harder, Niklas; Vallizadeh, Ehsan |
| Abstract: | Governments continue to face challenges integrating refugees into the local labor market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. This study examines the Job-Turbo program, a large-scale initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate employment among refugees—primarily individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the program significantly increased both caseworker–refugee contact and job placements over a 23-month follow-up period. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based—spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions—and concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and share of sustained job placements, consistent with improved match quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, but increases in job placements were concentrated among males and in low-skilled jobs, with only limited effects for females. We detect no negative spillovers for German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no signs of either resource reallocation or displacement. The results offer insights for governments responding to displacement crises. They indicate that intensified job-search assistance---embedded within the early stage of integration and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure---can meaningfully improve refugees' labor-market outcomes, even amid significant arrivals. |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:px9ew_v2 |
| By: | Marcos Delprato |
| Abstract: | Latin America's education systems are fragmented and segregated, with substantial differences by school type. The concept of school efficiency (the ability of school to produce the maximum level of outputs given available resources) is policy relevant due to scarcity of resources in the region. Knowing whether private and public schools are making an efficient use of resources -- and which are the leading drivers of efficiency -- is critical, even more so after the learning crisis brought by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, relying on data of 2, 034 schools and nine Latin American countries from PISA 2022, I offer new evidence on school efficiency (both on cognitive and non-cognitive dimensions) using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by school type and, then, I estimate efficiency leading determinants through interpretable machine learning methods (IML). This hybrid DEA-IML approach allows to accommodate the issue of big data (jointly assessing several determinants of school efficiency). I find a cognitive efficiency gap of nearly 0.10 favouring private schools and of 0.045 for non-cognitive outcomes, and with a lower heterogeneity in private than public schools. For cognitive efficiency, leading determinants for the chance of a private school of being highly efficient are higher stock of books and PCs at home, lack of engagement in paid work and school's high autonomy; whereas low-efficient public schools are shaped by poor school climate, large rates of repetition, truancy and intensity of paid work, few books at home and increasing barriers for homework during the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.25353 |
| By: | Brandtjen, Roland |
| Abstract: | This study proposes a comprehensive theoretical framework for regional identity formation across 95 European regions integrating Social Identity Theory, constructivist approaches, and nested identity theory. Using virtual snowball sampling from 2019 to 2024, participants selected their region's most salient characteristic among language, history, culture, societal norms, political autonomy, and economic independence. Findings show culture as the dominant identifier in 64% of regions, history in 26%, with notable language prominence in Spanish regions and varied autonomy emphasis in microstates and small European territories. Demographic correlations reveal stronger cultural identification among younger and economically vulnerable groups, whereas older participants favoured societal norms. These results support social identity and constructivist models, highlighting cultural identity's role as a stable bridge between local and supranational attachments and suggesting policy implications for fostering territorial cohesion within European integration. |
| Keywords: | Regional Identity Formation, Social Identity Theory, Cultural Identity, Nested Identity, European Integration |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:327996 |
| By: | Pipke, David |
| Abstract: | Influential studies by Price and Wolfers (2010) and Pope et al. (2018) document racial bias among NBA referees and suggest that heightened awareness can reduce it. Using an independently assembled player–game dataset for 1988–2025 that links box scores to referee crews, I replicate the original findings and extend them. Racial bias is present in 1988–2007 and largely absent in 2007–2014, reemerges in 2015–2019, and disappears again from 2020 onward. Merging games to county–day measures of Black Lives Matter protest activity, I find lower bias when local protest intensity is higher. These associations are consistent with awareness-driven reductions in discrimination. |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yg6ap_v1 |
| By: | McLoughlin, Jacob (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | In 2019, the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) was implemented in London: a daily charge on all non-compliant cars driven in a specified zone. This zone was expanded in 2021 and again in 2023. I construct a novel dataset on UK house sales, and use a staggered difference-in-differences design to find that the implementation of the ULEZ led house prices in these expansion zones to fall on average by roughly 3-4% over the following year. This corresponds to a windfall loss to the average London homeowner of roughly £25, 000, or half the median annual salary in the region. This result is robust to considerable weakening of the parallel trends assumption. It is also robust to different methods of dealing with spatial spillovers, and I quantify the spillover effects to find that the ULEZ leads prices of houses just outside the region to fall by roughly 2% over a similar time-frame. Beyond two years after implementation, the main negative effect begins to recover, which I justify as a product of asymmetric information transmission. |
| Keywords: | emissions charges ; house prices ; difference-in-differences ; environmental policy ; spatial spillovers JEL classifications: C23 ; Q53 ; Q58 ; R21 ; R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:86 |
| By: | Allen IV, James |
| Abstract: | Overlap between school and farming calendars—pervasive in agrarian settings—constrains children’s time for both activities, potentially forcing trade-offs between schooling and child labor. Using shift-share estimation, I study an exogenous shift to overlap between school and crop calendars in Malawi, weighted and aggregated by communities’ pre-policy crop shares, matched to panel data on school-aged children. From pre- to post-policy, a five-day (i.e., one school-week) increase in overlap during peak farming periods decreases children’s school advancement by 0.14 grades—one lost grade for every seven children—while only resulting in 3.9 percent fewer children working on the household-farm. Policy simulations show how adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods can be an effective strategy to increase school participation. |
| Keywords: | education; child labour; households; crop production; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:138825 |
| By: | Liran Einav; Amy Finkelstein; Neale Mahoney; James C. Okun |
| Abstract: | We use detailed data on the evolution of health for about 0.8 million Black and 5.4 million white nursing home patients covered by Medicare between 2011 and 2019 to estimate race-specific value-added measures for more than 8, 000 nursing homes in the United States. We estimate that the average nursing home value-added experienced by Black patients is about 30% lower than that received by white patients. Most of this gap reflects differences in value-added experienced by similar Black and white patients within the same nursing home, rather than differences in value-added across the nursing homes they go to. |
| JEL: | H44 I1 I14 L0 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34324 |
| By: | Abderrahman Ait-Ali; Anders Peterson |
| Abstract: | Accurate and timely travel information is an asset for enhancing passenger travel experience during normal traffic, and for mitigating the discomforts during disruptions. With longer and more frequent disruptions as well as increasing ridership, traffic delays can incur substantial costs for passengers and other transport stakeholders, e.g., operators and infrastructure managers. Such costs can, however, be reduced thanks to effective travel information strategies during traffic disruptions. In this paper, we introduce an evaluation model to assess the value of travel information under different scenarios. Focusing on real-time travel information to train passengers, accessibility benefits are quantified in monetary terms based on historical delay distributions, timing of travel information (pre/on-trip) and ridership. Using a case study from the Swedish railways, the model is showcased and applied to a commuter line in Stockholm. The experimental results indicate individual valuations that are higher than references and savings at the system level of at least 23% of the delay costs. Further testing of the model, e.g., on larger-scale scenarios, and including transfer trips, is a possible direction for future works. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.08254 |
| By: | Teng Liu; Brook Constantz; Galina Hale; Michael Beck |
| Abstract: | Measuring the financial value of nature is difficult, often resulting in insufficient funding directed to nature conservation and restoration. As coastal risks increase from development and climate change, a tangible benefit of nature is the protection it offers against storm damages. Many studies from the risk industry and others assess the direct effects of wetlands for reducing damage during storms. However, the value of wetlands for coastal protection could extend to many other benefits, including home prices in areas where storms are common. We use property-level housing transaction data from Zillow and show that proximity to mangroves in Florida moderates home price decline and dispersion following major hurricanes. The effects are substantial in magnitude, reducing the probability of losing a quarter or more of housing value by 2-7 percentage points, which corresponds to 20-40-thousand-dollar value for a million-dollar property, conditional on a hurricane. |
| JEL: | G12 Q54 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34329 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | Through more assertive fiscal decentralisation, the starting point is to analyse in a plausible manner the main implications that are in fact related to its application in a federalist model context. Thus, unitary states in particular do not in fact have evidence of ensuring better fiscal inclusion capacity in their territories. Thus, in this particular approach, I propose significant fiscal decentralisation. The approach shows that, through Structural Imbalance Correction Mechanisms, it is possible to guarantee greater growth dynamics for regions with lower potential. however, regions with lower potential will in fact be the regions that should nevertheless grow significantly in a progressive manner. There is, however, other evidence that contributes to making regions more attractive through a more inclusive fiscal policy. The approach also shows that municipalities with lower attractiveness potential will in fact tend to attract to their territory, as a fiscal headquarters, a group of companies capable of driving a transformation dynamic through significant increases in tax incentives and, in fact, leading their respective regions to greater fiscal and structural sustainability in particular. |
| Date: | 2025–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:td7vw_v1 |
| By: | Liu Cui (Zhejiang University); Yit Wey Liew (Sunway University); Muhammad Habibur Rahman (Durham University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the economic and distributional effects of China’s National Pilot Program for Returnee Entrepreneurship, which encourages rural migrants to return to their hometowns for business creation and employment. Drawing on county-level socioeconomic indicators and nationally representative household survey data, we find that the program substantially boosted local economic development. Yet the gains were uneven as household-level analysis reveals a significant rise in within-county inequality. The mechanism operates through unequal access to capital, skills, and risk tolerance, enabling better-endowed households to capture a disproportionate share of the benefits. These findings underscore a key policy trade-off: while returnee entrepreneurship initiatives can stimulate aggregate growth, they may simultaneously exacerbate disparities within rural communities |
| Keywords: | Labor migration, Economic development, Inequality |
| JEL: | J61 O15 D63 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dur:durham:2025_03 |
| By: | Shawn Berry |
| Abstract: | Traffic congestion represents a complex urban phenomenon that has been the subject of extensive research employing various modeling techniques grounded in the principles of physics and molecular theory. Although factors such as road design, accidents, weather conditions, and construction activities contribute to traffic congestion, driver behavior and decision-making are primary determinants of traffic flow efficiency. This study introduces a driver behavior archetype model that quantifies the relationship between individual driver behavior and system-level traffic outcomes through game-theoretic modeling and simulation (N = 500, 000) of a three-lane roadway. Mann-Whitney U tests revealed statistically significant differences across all utility measures (p 2.0). In homogeneous populations, responsible drivers achieved substantially higher expected utility (M = -0.090) than irresponsible drivers (M = -1.470). However, in mixed environments (50/50), irresponsible drivers paradoxically outperformed responsible drivers (M = 0.128 vs. M = -0.127), illustrating a social dilemma wherein defection exploits cooperation. Pairwise comparisons across the six driver archetypes indicated that all irresponsible types achieved equivalent utilities while consistently surpassing responsible drivers. Lane-specific analyses revealed differential capacity patterns, with lane 1 exhibiting a more pronounced cumulative utility decline. These findings offer a robust framework for traffic management interventions, congestion prediction, and policy design that aligns individual incentives with collective efficiency. Directions for future research were also proposed. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.04740 |
| By: | Jane Greve; Mette T. Jensen; Esben Agerbo; John Cawley |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of early-life health on education by estimating the effect of genetic predisposition to a higher body mass index (BMI) on educational attainment and related outcomes. The identification strategy exploits the randomness in which genes one inherits from one's parents by estimating sibling fixed effects models of the polygenic score for a higher BMI. These models are estimated using rich administrative data from Denmark for over 14, 000 full siblings. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in the genetic predisposition to a higher BMI is associated with a 1.4 percentage point (4.4%) lower probability of earning a high school diploma, a 1.7 percentage point (12.3%) lower probability of a college degree, and a 1.7 percentage point (3.7%) higher probability of vocational training. An investigation into mechanisms suggests that youth with a greater genetic predisposition to a higher BMI are more likely to report being bullied, have greater school absences, and lower test scores. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 I2 I23 I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34322 |
| By: | Brimblecombe, Nicola; Cartagena-Farias, Javiera; Stevens, Madeleine; Rajagopalan, Jayeeta; Hu, Bo |
| Abstract: | Good quality housing is an important part of supporting people with care needs and improving lives but not much is known about how care use (formal and/or unpaid) might be related to housing, especially non-specialized housing where most older people live. Our study aimed to explore this relationship. Methods comprised secondary analysis of quantitative data from a large representative sample, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2012/2013 to 2018/2019), and semi-structured in-depth interviews with 72 people aged 65 and older with care needs and/or their unpaid carers living in five localities in England. We found that poor quality or unsuitable housing affected care use indirectly through increasing or precipitating care needs thus necessitating care and support, and directly through being a barrier to receiving care; the latter sometimes resulting in unmet need for support. Our paper thus contributes to the understanding of the relationship between non-specialized housing and care use and of the wider factors shaping unmet need for care. |
| Keywords: | housing; housing problems; long-term/social care; formal care; unpaid care; unmet need for care |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129559 |
| By: | Brandtjen, Roland |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the formation of European identity across European regions between 2019 and 2024. Drawing on Self-Categorization and Social Identity Theory, European identity (EI) is conceptualized as a collective identity rooted in shared democratic values, human rights, and the rule of law, rather than common language or ethnicity. A multilingual survey was conducted using snowball sampling across EU members, microstates, and autonomous territories. The analysis reveals significant regional disparities in EI, with stronger affiliations in regions more integrated into EU structures and weaker identification in areas with greater autonomy or historical detachment. Demographic variables such as age, gender, income, and education show weak correlations with EI. However, professional roles consistently emerge as a stronger predictor, particularly in public service and internationally engaged occupations. Notably, education often correlates negatively suggesting critical engagement with supranational governance. Temporal and regional variations underscore the fluid and context-dependent nature of identity formation. It highlights the importance of institutional, cultural, and occupational factors in shaping EI and suggest that efforts to foster cohesion should focus on professional and educational environments. This research contributes to the discourse on European integration and identity politics, offering empirical insights into how identities evolve in response to shifting societal landscapes. |
| Keywords: | European Identity, Regional Variation, Multilingual Survey, Demographic Correlates, Virtual Snowball Sampling |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:327997 |
| By: | KO, Yu-Ting |
| Abstract: | This study aims to explore the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) from Taiwan in the Kyushu region, particularly focusing on the establishment of facilities in Kumamoto by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), on the development of airport infrastructure and its subsequent influence on the growth of regional tourism. The research focuses on Taiwanese visitors to Kyushu, encompassing both business and leisure travelers, with particular attention to changes in the number of flights between Taiwan and Kyushu, as well as fluctuations in visitor numbers to various prefectures within Kyushu as travel destinations. By analyzing flight data and tourism statistics, the study finds that FDI from TSMC has driven an increase in the number of scheduled flights at Kumamoto and surrounding airports, leading to a rapid rise in Taiwanese visitors to Kyushu. Moreover, the travel destinations of these visitors have expanded from a previous concentration in Fukuoka to include Kumamoto, Oita, and other prefectures. The findings indicate that industrial investment significantly stimulates regional transportation and tourism sectors, contributing to a deeper understanding of the interplay between industrial development and tourism economy. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000251 |
| By: | Tang, William (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether a native’s local exposure to immigration affects their generalised trust, in the context of Germany during the 2014-16 European Refugee Crisis. While the literature has extensively studied the impacts of immigration and the determinants of trust separately, scant empirical work has sought to causally link the two ; this is despite the existence of several plausible theoretical mechanisms. Exploiting the quasi-random allocation of refugees across Germany’s federal states, I employ two identification strategies : a Two-Way Fixed Effects model and a Difference-in-Differences model – the latter being my preferred approach, as it more effectively leverages the exogenous variation induced by the European Refugee Crisis. Across both models, I find no evidence of a causal effect of immigration exposure on trust. This result holds over a battery of robustness checks, including heterogeneity analysis, dynamic treatment effect specifications, and alternative scalings/measures of generalised trust. In doing so, I offer one of the first empirical attempts to causally bridge two previously separate literatures, and suggest that generalised trust may be less relevant than other social/cultural outcomes (e.g. political attitudes or crime perception) when designing immigration related policies. |
| Keywords: | immigration ; generalised trust ; European Refugee Crisis ; Germany ; social cohesion JEL classifications: J15 ; O15 ; J61 ; O10 ; Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:90 |
| By: | Martin Shanahan; Pierre van der Eng |
| Abstract: | Philips Australia established its manufacturing branch in Adelaide in 1946. At peak, its Hendon plant had 3, 500 employees and was one of many manufacturers that reshaped the city’s northwestern suburbs. Philips was enticed by the offer of relocation subsides, access to Commonwealth buildings, and State provision of affordable housing. The company’s approach to employee welfare included providing staff training and sporting and cultural amenities. The social impact of industrialisation and Philips’ presence lasted several decades but faded after the company left in 1980 and immigrant workers aged. It did, however, contribute to permanent social changes in Adelaide’s north-western suburbs. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing, corporate culture, industry policy, Adelaide, Philips Electronics |
| JEL: | N67 N87 N97 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:134 |
| By: | Rong Fu; Neeraj Kaushal; Felix Muchomba |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on earnings gaps between non-Hispanic White and three generations of Black workers in the United States during 1995-2024, using nationally representative data. Results reveal remarkable earnings advances among 2nd-generation Black immigrants, opposite to the well-documented widening in overall Black-White earnings gap. Among women, 2nd-generation Black workers have earnings higher than or equal to White women; among men, they earn 10% less at the median, but the gap vanishes at the top decile. The gap for 1st-generation Black men is shrinking, halving at the top decile; for 1st-generation Black women it shows initial widening then shrinking at the median. The native Black-White gap remains stubbornly high. Educational attainment largely drives 2nd-generation success, while residential patterns play a protective role for the 1st and 2nd generations. These findings provide critical data to set the record straight on the accomplishments of the highly successful and rising demography of Black immigrants and their US-born children. |
| JEL: | J0 J15 J3 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34327 |
| By: | Leonardo D'Amico; Edward Glaeser; Joseph Gyourko; William Kerr; Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto |
| Abstract: | We document a Kuznets curve for construction productivity in 20th-century America. Homes built per construction worker remained stagnant between 1900 and 1940, boomed after World War II, and then plummeted after 1970. The productivity boom from 1940 to 1970 shows that nothing makes technological progress inherently impossible in construction. What stopped it? We present a model in which local land-use controls limit the size of building projects. This constraint reduces the equilibrium size of construction companies, reducing both scale economies and incentives to invest in innovation. Our model shows that, in a competitive industry, such inefficient reductions in firm size and technology investment are a distinctive consequence of restrictive project regulation, while classic regulatory barriers to entry increase firm size. The model is consistent with an extensive series of key facts about the nature of the construction sector. The post-1970 productivity decline coincides with increases in our best proxies for land-use regulation. The size of development projects is small today and has declined over time. The size of construction firms is also quite small, especially relative to other goods-producing firms, and smaller builders are less productive. Areas with stricter land use regulation have particularly small and unproductive construction establishments. Patenting activity in construction stagnated and diverged from other sectors. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that, if half of the observed link between establishment size and productivity is causal, America’s residential construction firms would be approximately 60% more productive if their size distribution matched that of manufacturing. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1896 |
| By: | Takuma Kunieda (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University); Kei Kuwahara (Kunieda Laboratory in School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines collateral constraints in the Kiyotaki and Moore [1997. Credit cycles. Journal of Political Economy 105(2), 211-248] model using land price data from three major prefectures in Japan: Tokyo, Osaka, and Hyogo. After confirming the stationarity of land prices, we estimate their dynamic equations and show that they follow a second-order autoregressive (AR(2)) process, consistent with the presence of binding collateral constraints. We further apply the supremum Wald test and identify structural breaks at the onset of the early 1990s asset price bubble collapse. These results suggest that financial frictions played a critical role in shaping land price dynamics in Japan's regional economies. Overall, our findings demonstrate that the Kiyotaki-Moore framework provides a useful tool for capturing the dynamic behavior of financially constrained economies. By providing new regional evidence, this study contributes to the literature on macroeconomics and financial market imperfections. |
| Keywords: | Collateral Constraints, Financial Frictions, Land Price Dynamics, Kiyotaki-Moore Model, Credit Cycles, Regional Economies. |
| JEL: | G12 E32 E44 R30 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:300 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | The approach to federalist and non-federalist countries has always attracted considerable attention from the academic community. Regional development is directly related to the levels and type of decentralisation model that each country actually adopts. In this approach, I analyse centralised and non-centralised countries in a comparative manner, with a strong emphasis on countries with a federal decentralisation model. Thus, the analysis shows that there is greater economic concentration in a single city, such as the capital, which is responsible for the political and economic decisions of the other regions. Centralised countries also have less capacity for economic transformation, due to the lack of fiscal decentralisation, which should in fact promote greater tax revenue collection. On the other hand, the approach also analyses lower political participation and exclusive democracy regions at lower subnational levels with less capacity for democratic participation. On the other hand, the analysis effectively shows that most federated countries, their states and municipalities, through fiscal decentralisation, promote greater economic transformation and greater democratic plurality. However, federated countries are those that manage to achieve greater macroeconomic stability, evidenced by a larger tax base. There is also evidence to suggest that there is in fact greater sustainable economic growth in federal countries. |
| Date: | 2025–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5ub7w_v1 |
| By: | Kevin André Pineda-Hernández; François Rycx; Mélanie Volral |
| Abstract: | Overeducation implies having a higher level of education than that required to perform a specific job. In this regard, a large body of literature shows that first-generation immigrants born in developing countries experience a higher likelihood of being overeducated than natives due in part to their foreign origin (i.e. immigrant overeducation). However, evidence is remarkably scarce regarding the overeducation of second-generation immigrants. Using a matched employer–employee database for Belgium over the period 1999–2016 and generalized ordered logit regressions, we contribute to the literature with one of the first studies on the intergenerational nexus between overeducation and origin among tertiary-educated workers. Our estimates suggest that immigrant overeducation disappears across two generations, except for workers from the Near and Middle East and the Maghreb. Moreover, we show that immigrant overeducation is a persistent intergenerational phenomenon among part-time workers. Our gender-interacted estimates confirm this conclusion for both male and female workers. |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/384894 |
| By: | Utsav Kumar Singh (International Center for Public Policy, Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | The concept of asymmetric federalism is well established in the literature on decentralization and public finance, but little attention has been paid to what I term 'asymmetric localism.' Such a system exists when some local governments enjoy more robust expenditure and revenue assignments than others of a similar size at the same tier. In this paper, I describe asymmetric localism in the Indian case through a systematic comparison of autonomous councils in Assam with the more common panchayat system elsewhere in the country. The study begins with the assumption that local demands are subject to change across geographies and times. Consequently, this variation requires an accountable local institution to synchronize local interest with national priorities. The concept of local government is rooted in the political philosophy of 'localism': addressing community-specific needs by bringing decision-making closer to the people. Asymmetries are built into the very nature of local government, particularly in multicultural countries such as India, but have received surprisingly scant academic attention. I apply asymmetric localism in this study to critically examine different types of local governance structures in India. Despite structural differences, local governments, at least ostensibly, share the objective of inclusive and sustainable development. However, on many fronts, local governments show differential progress in furthering peopleÕs aspirations. Some institutions are performing better while others are struggling to deliver on the local priorities, consequently delaying the development process. To some extent this limitation in local governance is grounded in local autonomy and intergovernmental relations. Motivated by this problem, the central question that undergirds my proposed research is this: In what way and to what extent do local autonomy and intergovernmental relations contribute towards the better functioning of local governments? I address this argument in light of asymmetric localism by comparing two forms of local governanceÑAutonomous Councils and Panchayati Raj InstitutionsÑin India. Both the institutions are functioning within the same federation with differing levels of financial autonomy and legislative power endowed upon them. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2516 |
| By: | Jason Godfrey |
| Abstract: | For many students, placement into developmental education becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Placing college students into developmental education significantly negatively impacts student attainment, student probability of passing, and college credits earned. To combat these negative effects, many universities are investigating alternative placement mechanisms. Could directed self-placement be an effective alternative mechanism? Do students who self-place suffer the same negative impacts from placement recommendations as their traditionally placed counterparts? This paper uses longitudinal data with causal inference methods to examine whether directed self-placement has similar negative impacts on student grades and pass rates as mandatory placement schema. We begin with an analysis of over 20, 000 student placement records into one of two different placement tracks for first-year writing. Longitudinal and institutional data allow us to control for characteristic variables such as student race, family income, and sex. The results of our regression discontinuity design show that directed self-placement does not negatively impact student grades or pass rate. This may be an improvement for students who place at or near the threshold for developmental/remedial education; However, class, race, and gender-based statistical differences persist in the program at-large, demonstrating that placement technique plays only one part in building a more equitable program. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.03350 |
| By: | Harju, Jarkko; Kosonen, Tuomas; Laukkanen, Marita; Palanne, Kimmo; Suonto, Satu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the efects of a signifcant fuel tax increase on driving and therefore CO2 emissions. Fuel taxes are a major policy tool to reduce road transport emissions. Despite the prevalence of fuel taxes, credible causal evidence of the efect of fuel taxes on driving and emissions is limited, and the reasons why existing estimates vary remain unexplored. Our research directly addresses these gaps in the literature by exploiting exogenous variation provided by Finland’s 2012 energy tax reform. The reform increased the tax on diesel by almost 12 euro cents per litre, while the tax on gasoline was increased by less than 3 euro cents per litre. The reform allows us to utilize a quasi-experimental setting and compare the vehicle kilometers traveled by diesel-and gasoline-powered cars to identify the impacts of fuel taxes. We employ a large representative data set of about 0.7 million cars, which contains car odometer readings from mandatory car inspections starting from 2008. Our estimates indicate a clear reduction in vehicle kilometers traveled by diesel cars due to reform-induced increases in diesel prices. In our heterogeneity analysis we observe that a large part of the response originates from car owners that reside in urban rather than rural environments. |
| Keywords: | Fuel taxes, Fuel consumption, Fuel tax elasticity, Mileage, CO2 Emissions, Road transport emissions, J31, J38, D22, fi=Verotus|sv=Beskattning|en=Taxation|, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:177 |
| By: | Alexandro de Gois Oliveira; Wallace Patrick Santos Farias de Souza; Jevuks Matheus de Araújo |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the impacts of economic shocks resulting from trade liberalization in Brazil on educational indicators in microregions from 1990 to 2010. The analysis explores disparities between different age cohorts, genders, qualification levels and racial groups, in addition to examining the effects on other dimensions of education. We also assess the effects of these shocks on formal employment in large occupational groups over time, as well as the role of China’s growing presence in international trade between 2000 and 2010. The results indicate that the regions most exposed to tariff reductions showed significant increases in schooling, especially among individuals aged 10 to 24. From a gender perspective, men were initially the most affected by the shocks, although the effects redistributed over time. Regarding racial composition, white individuals were the most affected in the short term. As a consequence, an increase in educational inequalities between individuals and between regions was observed, revealing the heterogeneity of the impacts of trade liberalization on human capital. |
| Keywords: | Economic Shocks; Trade Liberalization; Education |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:021671 |
| By: | Ayres, Ian; Donohue, John J. III |
| Abstract: | In our initial article—Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis—we reached two main conclusions: First, that there was no credible statistical evidence that the adoption of concealed-carry (or "shall-issue") laws reduced crime; and second, that the best, although admittedly quite imperfect, data suggested that the laws increased the costs of crime to the tune of $1 billion per year (which is a relatively small number given the total cost of FBI index crimes of roughly $114 billion per year). In their response to our article, Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley (PW) offer two sets of evidence in support of their view that that concealed-carry laws are beneficial: First, they argue that some of our regression specifications really buttress their position; and second, they analyze some new county data for the period 1977-2000. Their first method of proof fails because it simply overlooks—without even a single word of commentary!—the entire thrust of our paper: that aggregated specifications of the effects of these laws are badly marred by "jurisdiction selection" effects. We did not misread these aggregated estimates, as PW suggest; we simply showed that the PW claims based on these aggregated estimates are inaccurate and misleading. The data at every turn reject the idea that concealed-carry laws passed in different jurisdictions have a uniform impact on crime. Therefore, the results of disaggregated regressions must, counter to PW's claim, be taken as a more authoritative assessment of the overall impact of concealed-carry laws. |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:kq3yj_v1 |
| By: | Holger Görg, Toshihiro Okubo, Eric Strobl, Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use comprehensive historic firm level data for 1925 to 1938 to estimate productivity spillovers from Japanese textile companies’ affiliates in China (Zaikabo) to local cotton producers in China. We geo-localized firms in order to capture the important role of distance in facilitating productivity spillovers. Our results provide clear evidence for positive productivity spillovers from Zaikabo to local Chinese firms. This goes hand-in-hand with a change in production technology towards greater use of capital (spindles). We also find that spillovers are very localised, being strongest within a radius of up to 10km around the Zaikabo. Furthermore, evidence for spillovers is particularly strong for firms in Shanghai. Our paper is the first to provide evidence for such spillovers from foreign firms in a historical context. |
| JEL: | F23 N65 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2506 |
| By: | Beschin, Anna; Paredes, Joan; Polichetti, Gaetano; Renault, Théodore |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the price Phillips curve by exploiting subnational regional data from 11 euro area countries. Beyond controlling for aggregate fluctuations common across euro area regions, our approach accounts for country-specific dynamics, including national inflation expectations, thereby addressing key limitations in previous studies. Our results suggest that the Phillips curve in the euro area is relatively flat, but statistically significant. Furthermore, we provide novel evidence on potential nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve and highlight the critical role of properly accounting for country-specific factors such as inflation expectations. These findings provide new insights for the conduct of monetary policy and underscore the value of regional data in euro area macroeconomic analysis. JEL Classification: E24, E30, E31 |
| Keywords: | heterogeneity, non-linearity, price Phillips curve, regional data |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253133 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | The approach particularly analyzes the decentralization of unitary states into federated states, with economic transformation through fiscal decentralization naturally being the objective of the analysis. Thus, in particular, the evidence shows that unitary states do indeed have inefficiencies related particularly to their capacity for economic transformation, while regions in non-federal states depend largely on decisions that must be made by policymakers, which in fact have a negative impact on the levels of public policy implementation. In particular, the study shows that subnational levels in a federal system can in fact become resilient and naturally transformative of the economy if, on the one hand, they achieve profound fiscal decentralization, which nevertheless converges with the lower levels of the subnational region. In this approach, I propose inclusive decentralization, with community councils as the lowest possible level for the implementation of public and fiscal policies, which can channel economic transformation and assertive territorial cohesion. |
| Date: | 2025–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:q3dxa_v1 |
| By: | Hart, Michelle (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Tourism has grown into one of the world’s largest industries, and its dispersed nature has made it a valuable lever for boosting national economies. Consequently, a country’s ability to attract inbound tourism is closely tied to its economic wellbeing. Using panel data on bilateral tourist flows and visa restrictions from 2016-2019, this paper investigates whether liberalising visa policies truly increases inbound tourists. A structural gravity model is used to estimate the causal impact of over 1, 300 policy liberalisations, and 400 instances of policies being tightened. This paper demonstrates that liberalising visa policies has an overall positive effect on tourist arrivals, but the effect weakens with distance, as visa costs become a smaller share of total travel burden. This paper also finds that tourists going to low-GDP destinations are far more sensitive to policy changes than high-GDP countries, hinting at a destination’s demand elasticity. These findings suggest that countries should consider distance, as well as their own demand elasticity, when designing visa policies to maximise their tourism potential. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:89 |
| By: | Luca Lazzaro; Manuel S. Mariani; Ren\'e Algesheimer; Radu Tanase |
| Abstract: | Faced with uncertainty in decision making, individuals often turn to their social networks to inform their decisions. In consequence, these networks become central to how new products and behaviors spread. A key structural feature of networks is the presence of long ties, which connect individuals who share few mutual contacts. Under what conditions do long ties facilitate or hinder diffusion? The literature provides conflicting results, largely due to differing assumptions about individual decision-making. We reinvestigate the role of long ties by experimentally measuring adoption decisions under social influence for products with uncertain payoffs and embedding these decisions in network simulations. At the individual level, we find that higher payoff uncertainty increases the average reliance on social influence. However, personal traits such as risk preferences and attitudes toward uncertainty lead to substantial heterogeneity in how individuals respond to social influence. At the collective level, the observed individual heterogeneity ensures that long ties consistently promote diffusion, but their positive effect weakens as uncertainty increases. Our results reveal that the effect of long ties is not determined by whether the aggregate process is a simple or complex contagion, but by the extent of heterogeneity in how individuals respond to social influence. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.04785 |
| By: | Monika Piazzesi |
| Abstract: | This paper documents new stylized facts about returns and cashflow growth rates on stocks and housing over decade-long holding periods. While cashflow growth rates on the two assets comove positively, their returns comove negatively until the Global Financial Crisis and positively thereafter. These facts present a puzzle for representative-agent models that imply positive return comovement for assets with similar cashflows. I consider a heterogeneous-agent model with segmented stock and housing markets connected through credit. News about the aggregate economy generates negative return comovement. Recent shifts such as wealthier homebuyers and institutional housing purchases reduce the importance of credit and segmentation. |
| JEL: | E0 G12 R0 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34335 |
| By: | Benito Arruñada; Marco Fabbri; Daniele Nosenzo; Giorgio Zanarone |
| Abstract: | We provide causal evidence on how a community’s formal institutions and social structure jointly affect the value of its land to outside investors. Using field research and a lab-in-thefield experiment in rural Benin, we show that potential urban investors perceive a higher risk of expropriatory collusion among villagers—and thus invest less—when villages lack formal land records and exhibit strong social tightness. We also find that, although formalizing land rights increases the confidence of outsiders, it does not eliminate their concerns about collusion: outsiders remain wary of investing in villages with a tight social structure even with formal property rights, indicating that local collusion continues to pose a barrier to developing impersonal property markets. Our findings therefore suggest that in addition to facilitating intra-community investment and trade (e.g., by formalizing land ownership), well-designed property institutions should also guarantee the impartial treatment of outsiders. |
| Keywords: | Collusion; lab-in-the-field experiment; property rights; randomized control trial; social structure. |
| JEL: | D02 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1917 |
| By: | Silvia Faggian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Dominika Machowska (University of Warsaw); Agnieszka Wiszniewska-Matyszkiel (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the formation of stable coalitions in a differential game of resource extraction where players' resource deposits are interdependent and spatial relations between them are represented as a network. The network structure allows heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of extractable resources. We introduce a new framework for cooperative extraction in which, in addition to side payments, extraction rights can also be shared. The main contribution is the identification of conditions under which partial coalitions with more than three players can be stable, and under which the grand coalition can also be stable. Illustrative examples of such games are provided. |
| Keywords: | resource extraction, network, the tragedy of the commons, cooperation, partial cooperation, stability of coalitions |
| JEL: | C61 C71 C72 C73 D85 Q20 Q21 Q30 Q32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:18 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a unified theoretical framework for detecting and estimating boundaries in treatment effects across both spatial and temporal dimensions. We formalize the concept of treatment effect boundaries as structural parameters characterizing regime transitions where causal effects cease to operate. Building on diffusion-based models of information propagation, we establish conditions under which spatial and temporal boundaries share common dynamics, derive identification results, and propose consistent estimators. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the performance of our methods under various data-generating processes. The framework provides tools for detecting when local treatments become systemic and identifying critical thresholds for policy intervention. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.00754 |
| By: | Matteo Bizzarri (Università di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy); Fernando Vega-Redondo (The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | We quantify a parsimonious model of oligopolistic competition with common ownership in input–output networks. Using Spanish data on demand, ownership, and input–output linkages, we estimate the overall welfare effect of common ownership. Input–output linkages introduce a theoretical channel through which common ownership could improve welfare. We find that this channel exists but is not strong enough to offset the reduction in competition: common ownership has a negative welfare effect, though weaker than in the absence of input–output linkages. Finally, we introduce a parameterized ownership separation to compute a firm-level index of the anti-competitiveness of common ownership. |
| Keywords: | production networks, network games, common ownership, oligopoly |
| JEL: | D43 D57 D85 L13 L16 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:25-05 |
| By: | António Afonso; M. Carmen Blanco-Arana; Ana J. Cisneros-Ruiz |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of education and tax revenue onfostering new business creation in the OECD countries. To this end, we employ fixed effects and random effects models using panel data from 2006 to 2022, incorporating alternative conditions. Results confirm that while education and the economic situation are key pillars in fostering new business creation, the role of tax revenue in supporting economic development – and, by extension, new business formation – is fundamental, even if non-linear, with a threshold of 30% of GDP. Tax revenue collected by governments provides essential funding for public goods and services such as infrastructure, education, and innovation support programs, all of which contribute to creating an environment where new businesses can emerge and thrive. Our findings remain robust under the GMM estimation. |
| Keywords: | new business, tax revenue, education, economic growth, panel data |
| JEL: | C23 H2 I2 M20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12180 |
| By: | Reo Takaku (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University); Naohisa Shobako (Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University); Taisuke Nakata (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | During the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic, Japanese children lived with strict mitigation measures at school, such as eating school lunches silently and wearing masks during physical exercise classes, even after those mitigation measures have been relaxed worldwide. Excursions and other school events were frequently cancelled, especially in 2020 and 2021. This study conducts a retrospective survey on school experiences to understand how the strict mitigation measures were related to children's mental health and well-being. Results revealed school excursion cancellation to be associated with a higher risk of developing depressive symptoms (odds ratio [OR] 1.543 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.109-2.148]), and high cancellation rate of other school events to be associated with dissatisfaction in school experience (OR 1.650 [95% CI 1.222-2.228]). In the subsample analysis, we found that girls and children with no extracurricular activities tended to exhibit depressive symptoms due to the cancellation of school excursions. Overall, our study demonstrated that persistent strict mitigation measures at schools might be a key factor in understanding children’s mental health and psychological well-being during a long-lasting pandemic. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf585 |
| By: | Aissatou Ndimblane (Territoires - Territoires - AgroParisTech - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Kassoum Ayouba (Territoires - Territoires - AgroParisTech - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CESAER - Centre d'économie et de sociologie rurales appliquées à l'agriculture et aux espaces ruraux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Olivier Aznar (Territoires - Territoires - AgroParisTech - VAS - VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | We assess the eco-efficiency of French inter-municipal cooperation entities in charge of waste management. We employ a conditional order-m approach to (i) estimate their eco-efficiency considering variables characterizing their environmental context, (ii) evaluate the effect of these contextual variables on the eco-efficiency. Our results demonstrate that the population size, the type of area (e.g., tourist, rural), and the waste pricing systems significantly influence eco-efficiency. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring local waste management policies to the specific characteristics and available resources of each area. They provide valuable insights for local authorities seeking to enhance eco-efficiency and optimize waste management practices. © 2025 The Authors |
| Keywords: | Eco-efficiency Municipal waste management Conditional approach Contextual variables, Municipal waste management, Eco-efficiency, Contextual variables, Conditional approach |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05232549 |
| By: | Hwang, Joon; Alam, Nurul; Shenk, Mary K (The Pennsylvania State University) |
| Abstract: | Throughout human evolutionary history, individuals have faced two fundamental challenges under uncertainty: deciding whether to take risks and managing risks through cooperation. While both risk-taking and social risk management have been widely studied, less attention has been given to how these two processes are linked—specifically, how risk-taking itself may be shaped by social networks. We test the "social capital buffer" hypothesis, which posits that greater social connectedness promotes risk-taking by buffering against negative outcomes. Analyzing social networks and risk preferences among 140 individuals in rural Bangladesh whose livelihoods range from farming to wage labor and small-scale trade, we identify distinct pathways through which social capital influences risk preference. Highly clustered individuals in financial support networks exhibit greater risk preference, suggesting that clustering facilitates risk-taking by ensuring resource circulation within a tight-knit group. In contrast, individuals with more support-receiving ties in material support networks are more risk-averse, indicating that material support functions as informal social insurance reducing reliance on risky decisions. Finally, reciprocity in material support networks promotes risk-taking only among wealthier individuals, highlighting how individual economic resources interact with social capital to shape risk-taking. These findings reveal that social capital does not uniformly promote or constrain risk-taking but serves distinct adaptive functions based on network structure, economic conditions, and resource types, balancing risk-taking and risk-avoidance to help individuals successfully navigate uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2025–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bxt8g_v1 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | Many countries develop through the increase of their economic resources, which naturally exist in most countries. On the other hand, some evidence shows that countries can develop through fiscal decentralisation, which promotes this growth through regional growth via significantly viable economic transformation. In Africa, for example, federalist countries such as Nigeria and South Africa show greater capacity for regional transformation through indicators of great relevance in themselves. Evidence also shows, for example, greater economic transformation through fiscal federalism. South Africa, for example, has less significant decentralisation but greater capacity to collect tax revenues. The analysis shows that Nigeria, for example, has a fiscal base in only a few states, with 10 states naturally having greater capacity for economic transformation, which suggests that there is less complexity in tax revenue collection, thus restricting economic development particularly in these states. Political decentralisation in African federalist countries does in fact lead to greater political turnover and greater political plurality among its political actors, which are naturally the political parties. Although there is de facto fiscal decentralisation, particularly in Nigeria and Ethiopia, there is nevertheless a greater lack of economic development in all territories, with the exception, for example, of states with greater economic concentration such as Lagos and Abuja. |
| Date: | 2025–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zy3c7_v1 |