|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Donald R. Davis; Matthew Easton; Stephan Thies |
| Abstract: | We use a discrete choice framework to provide the first nesting of Thomas C. Schelling's canonical models of racial segregation amenable to empirical examination. Using U.S. Census data from 1970-2000, we demonstrate a central role for spatial racial spillovers in shaping racial clustering, patterns of racial shares and housing prices at the boundary of racial clusters, and the locus of racial change. Our results on the locus of racial change conflict strongly with prominent prior results on racial tipping. Our theory provides a foundation for spatially stratified regressions. The strongest spatial effects in the prior work are not tipping, but the distinct biased White suburbanization. Tipping effects in urban areas remote from Minority clusters are small or insignificant. In urban areas proximate to Minority clusters they average less than half those reported in prior pooled results. Policies promoting racial integration must thus attend to the heterogeneous fragility of neighborhoods. |
| Keywords: | house prices, segregation, US, race, minorities |
| Date: | 2025–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2125 |
| By: | María Padilla-Romo; Cecilia Peluffo |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of moving away from violent environments into safer areas on migrants' academic achievement in the context of the Mexican war on drugs. Using student location choices across space and over time, we recover individual-level migration paths for elementary school students across all municipalities in Mexico. We find that students who were induced to leave violent areas due to increased violence experience academic gains after relocating to safer areas. Students who migrated from municipalities in the 90th percentile of the violence distribution to municipalities in the 10th percentile experienced improvements of 5.3 percent of a standard deviation in their test scores two years after they migrated. These results appear to be explained by increases in school attendance and improvements in the learning environment after they moved. |
| JEL: | I24 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34270 |
| By: | Aguirre, Josefa (PUC-Rio); Ramírez-Espinoza, Fernanda (PUC-Rio); Zarate, Roman Andres (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of violence perpetrated by peers and school staff on student victims. Leveraging unique administrative data from Chile that links reports of school violence to individual educational records, we address longstanding data limitations that have constrained empirical research on this issue. Using a matched difference-in-differences design, we find that exposure to school violence has persistent negative effects: absenteeism increases by 46–64\%, grade retention rates double, and both grades and test scores decline significantly, with impacts lasting up to four years. In the longer term, victims are substantially less likely to graduate from high school or enroll in university, with violence perpetrated by adults having more severe consequences than peer violence. Complementary survey evidence reveals that reported incidents are associated with increased perceptions of violence and discrimination, as well as decreases in school belonging and teacher expectations. While these psychological and perceptual effects tend to fade after one year, the adverse educational consequences persist, underscoring how brief traumatic experiences can lead to long-lasting educational disadvantages. |
| Keywords: | educational outcomes, school violence |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18126 |
| By: | Hector Blanco; Noémie Sportiche |
| Abstract: | Prior research shows that restrictive zoning regulations are major drivers of rising housing costs and residential segregation in the United States. In response, a growing number of state and local governments are passing laws to allow for denser housing in strictly zoned localities, despite entrenched opposition from incumbent residents. This paper examines whether incumbent residents' responses undermine the success of these policies by studying new construction permitted under Massachusetts Chapter 40B; one of the longest-standing and most productive examples of a housing policy that bypasses local zoning laws. Exploiting hyperlocal variation in residents' proximity to new 40B buildings, we find that only a subset of larger 40B developments cause property values to decrease, and that this effect is both highly localized and only emerges in the longer term, many years after these developments are proposed. Focusing on these larger developments that are more likely to elicit resident reactions, we find that only a fraction of incumbent residents move out after their approval and that the magnitude of these migration responses is insufficient to undermine policymakers' desegregation goals. We also do not find evidence that incumbent residents become more politically active against future development, as they are no more likely to vote in local or general elections nor are they more likely to vote for repealing Chapter 40B after 40B developments are proposed near their homes. |
| Keywords: | zoning, housing prices, migration, political participation |
| JEL: | R52 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12140 |
| By: | Jan K. Brueckner; David R. Agrawal |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence on a WFH-related hypothesis that has not previously been tested empirically. The hypothesis is that the presence of fully remote workers, for whom residence and work locations are decoupled, should create a tendency toward wage convergence across cities within teleworkable occupations. The reason is that, since fully remote workers can work anywhere, local wages must match those available in other cities for employers to attract any of these workers. By combining occupational wage data with data on which occupations are teleworkable, the paper attempts to test the wage-convergence hypothesis. The results are mixed, but some evidence does emerge in favor of the hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | work-from-home, telework, wages, convergence |
| JEL: | R23 J60 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12150 |
| By: | Dhingra, Swati (London School of Economics); Kondirolli, Fjolla; Machin, Stephen (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Diverting waste away from and zero waste to landfills are key sustainability policy aims of local and national governments around the world, particularly in countries with large waste footprints from rapid consumption growth and urbanisation. Segregation at the source of waste generation can offer a low-cost solution to urban waste footprints, yet segregation rates are low in many places, especially in the cities of developing economies. This paper studies a staggered randomised intervention offering training and education to citizens about waste segregation. Citizens in the city of Patna in India were given training on waste segregation at source, recycling and its environmental benefits in a large experimental intervention undertaken in collaboration with the city administration. Segregation-at-source increased substantially among households that received the intervention, and additional boosts to segregation arose from spatial spillovers, as the programme delivered at least a double-digit benefit-cost ratio. Citizen training, when effectively designed and implemented, does deliver a low-cost solution for the cities of developing countries to both reduce their waste footprint and enhance local environmental sustainability. |
| Keywords: | experimental intervention, citizen training, waste, spatial spillovers |
| JEL: | Q53 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18124 |
| By: | Gabriel Agostini; Rachel Young; Maria D. Fitzpatrick; Nikhil Garg; Emma J. Pierson |
| Abstract: | Fine-grained migration data illuminate important demographic, environmental, and health phenomena. However, migration datasets within the United States remain lacking: publicly available Census data are neither spatially nor temporally granular, and proprietary data have higher resolution but demographic and other biases. To address these limitations, we develop a scalable iterative-proportional-fitting based method that reconciles high-resolution but biased proprietary data with low-resolution but more reliable Census data. We apply this method to produce MIGRATE, a dataset of annual migration matrices from 2010-2019 that captures flows between 47.4 billion pairs of Census Block Groups — about four thousand times more granular than publicly available data. These estimates are highly correlated with external ground-truth datasets, and improve accuracy and reduce bias relative to raw proprietary data. We use MIGRATE to analyze both national and local migration patterns. Nationally, we document temporal and demographic variation in homophily, upward mobility, and moving distance: for example, we find that people are increasingly likely to move to top-income-quartile CBGs and identify racial disparities in upward mobility. We also show that MIGRATE can illuminate important local migration patterns, including out-migration in response to California wildfires, that are invisible in coarser previous datasets. We publicly release MIGRATE to provide a resource for migration research in the social, environmental, and health sciences. |
| JEL: | J19 R2 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34263 |
| By: | Christa Deneault; Evan Riehl |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive analysis of a Texas policy that relaxed teacher licensing requirements and created a large for-profit training industry. Using detailed administrative data, we show that for-profit-trained teachers have higher turnover and lower value-added than standard-trained teachers. But the policy significantly increased the supply of certified teachers, reducing schools' reliance on uncertified teachers with even worse outcomes. Exploiting variation in policy exposure across schools, we find a zero net impact on student achievement due to these offsetting forces. Thus lower licensing requirements improved access to teaching and reduced training costs without harming students. |
| JEL: | I28 J44 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34232 |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser; Joseph Gyourko; Braydon Neiszner |
| Abstract: | Do more populous neighborhoods grow less quickly than less populous areas? Is local housing price growth associated with initial population density? The Longitudinal Tract Data Base’s (LTDB) panel of Census tracts is the standard tool for measuring neighborhood change. The LTDB is based on 2010 Census tract boundaries, and Census tracts are partially designed so that they have a similar level of population. In this paper, we show that defining neighborhoods to equalize ex post population levels can significantly impact estimated coefficients in regressions in which population changes are regressed on initial population levels or with variables that are correlated with initial population levels. Most obviously, if neighborhood populations are ex post equalized, then a regression of population change on initial population must yield a coefficient of -1. We address this challenge by offering five alternative panels of tracts using 1970, 1980 and 1990 boundaries, which can be thought of as ‘reverse LTDBs’. The significant mean reversion of both population and housing units that appear in the LTDB before 2000 either dramatically ameliorates or reverses using the reverse LTDB. Comparing the LTDB with the reverse LTDB also finds that using tracts based on ex post borders also can influence estimated growth relationships where other tract-level attributes such as house price are correlated with initial population levels. This does not imply that using ex ante borders always is superior; earlier borders almost always means fewer observations, especially in rapidly growing areas. |
| JEL: | R10 R12 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34238 |
| By: | Uditi Karna; John A. List; Andrew Simon; Haruka Uchida |
| Abstract: | Parents are crucial to children’s educational success, but the role of parental education in fostering academic excellence remains underexplored. Using longitudinal administrative data covering all North Carolina public school students, we document five facts about first-generation excellence gaps. We find large excellence gaps emerge by 3rd grade across all demographics and persist through high school. Yet, socioeconomic status and school quality explain only one-third of the gaps. The overarching facts reveal that excellence gaps re-flect deeper challenges rooted in parental human capital that manifest early and compound over time, rather than merely consequences of socioeconomic disadvantage or school quality differences. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I30 J08 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34228 |
| By: | Erkmen G. Aslim; Wei Fu; Caitlin K. Myers; Erdal Tekin; Bingjin Xue |
| Abstract: | We study how abortion access affects economic hardship and crime. Using a database of abortion provider locations and operations in Texas from 2009–2019, we exploit variation in travel distance to the nearest facility created by clinic closures following the enforcement of Texas HB-2 in 2013. We confirm previous evidence that increased distance to the nearest abortion facility reduces abortions and increases births. We provide novel evidence that reduced access to abortion also leads to significant economic hardship, reflected in lower labor force participation, rising debt, widening income inequality, and heightened housing insecurity. This financial strain translates into higher rates of financially motivated crime, such as theft and burglary, with no significant effect on violent crime. These effects extend beyond directly affected individuals, reflecting intrahousehold spillovers. These findings suggest far-reaching consequences of restricted access to reproductive healthcare. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 J13 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34245 |
| By: | Geumbi Park; Xiaoqing Zhou; Sarah Zubairy |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the critical but underexplored role of subcontracting in shaping the spatial and firm-level effects of federal government spending. Leveraging newly available data on defense subcontract awards since 2011, linked with NETS establishment-level data, we examine prime–subcontractor relationships across counties, industries and time. We document three stylized facts: (1) subcontracting leads to widespread geographic relocation of federal dollars; (2) it reallocates spending across sectors, notably from service-sector primes to manufacturing subcontractors; and (3) large firms dominate subcontracting networks, even receiving subawards from smaller primes. Accounting for this geographic relocation shows that conventional estimates understate local multiplier effects by approximately 20%. While subcontracting broadens the spatial reach of federal spending, its average local impact is smaller than that of prime contracts. Establishment-level evidence shows that subcontractors—especially large ones and those in goods sectors—exhibit weaker and less persistent employment and revenue gains than prime contractors, reflecting the shorter and less stable nature of subcontracts. These weaker multipliers also stem from the skewed distribution of subcontracts toward large manufacturers. Overall, our findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in how procurement opportunities diffuse through the private sector and shape the effects of federal spending. |
| Keywords: | fiscal multipliers; prime contracts; subcontracts; employment; firm dynamics |
| JEL: | E62 H30 H56 H57 |
| Date: | 2025–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:101769 |
| By: | Scott Abrahams; Daniel Keniston |
| Abstract: | Between 1854 and 1929, approximately 200, 000 children were transported from East Coast cities to new homes in the American West, motivated by the theory that a change of geography and household environment can transform lives. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in child placements to evaluate both whether being sent West improved outcomes relative to remaining in New York institutions, and whether variation in destination and foster household characteristics affected later life success. Linking tens of thousands of ``orphan train'' riders and comparable non-relocated children to Census records through 1940, we find no systematic evidence that relocation itself improved adult economic outcomes. Among children sent West, substantial variation in county-level economic opportunities also did not predict adult success. In contrast, the individual foster household income predicts children's later incomes, with an estimated intergenerational elasticity of about 0.2. |
| JEL: | J61 N31 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34282 |
| By: | Fischer, Manfred M.; LeSage, James P. |
| Abstract: | Spatial econometrics deals with econometric modeling in the presence of spatial dependence and heterogeneity, where observations correspond to specific spatial units such as points or regions. Traditional estimation techniques assume independent observations and are inadequate when spatial dependence exists. This article provides an overview of spatial econometric models, highlighting the challenges posed by spatial dependence in cross-sectional data. It examines key models, including the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Spatial Error (SEM), and Spatial Durbin (SDM) models, while detailing maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) techniques and computational advancements for handling large datasets. Alternative estimation approaches, such as the generalized method of moments, Bayesian methods, non-parametric locally linear models, and matrix exponential spatial models, are also discussed. The article explores methods applicable to continuous, dichotomous, and censored variables. Interpreting spatial regression model estimates correctly is crucial for drawing valid inferences. Distinguishing between direct, indirect (spillover), and total effects and careful specification of the spatial weight matrix is essential. Misinterpretation can lead to flawed conclusions, undermining policy relevance – especially when assessing interventions with potential spillovers. By adhering to rigorous interpretation practices, researchers can fully leverage spatial regression models while mitigating analytical pitfalls. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian methods; censored dependent models; cross-sectional models; generalized method of moments; marginal effects; matrix exponential spatial models; maximum likelihood; non-parametric locally linear models; spatial dependence; spillover effects |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus046:72854367 |
| By: | Ambrosius, Christian (Freie Universität Berlin); Quigua, Juliana (University of Oxford); Velasquez, Andrea (University of Colorado Denver) |
| Abstract: | By 2020, one in four Salvadorans lived abroad, with 88 percent residing in the United States. The remittances to GDP ratio was about 25 percent, highlighting the country’s dependence on migration. This paper examines the effects of a major U.S. immigration enforcement program—Secure Communities—on migration and labor market outcomes in El Salvador. Using a shift-share identification strategy, we find that larger exposure to the program decreases the likelihood that a household includes a migrant, consistent with increased forced returns. These effects lead to lower income among male workers, particularly low-educated, informal workers, and those in agriculture. We also document a decline in the probability of receiving remittances. The findings suggest that a closure of migration opportunities can increase labor market competition and strain local economies. Effects are most pronounced in municipalities with limited absorptive capacity, underscoring the unintended consequences that U.S. immigration enforcement generates abroad. |
| Keywords: | labor markets, remittances, immigration policies, El Salvador |
| JEL: | F22 F24 N16 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18135 |
| By: | Alrababah, Ala; Delouis-Jost, Maelle (University of Zurich); Gauthier, Germain; Polak, Adam |
| Abstract: | Do place-based interventions that raise visibility and economic activity affect far-right voting? We study the Tour de France (TdF) as a case of brief but highly visible exposure that combines economic activity with symbolic recognition. Using variation in the annual TdF route between 2002 and 2022, we show that exposed municipalities experience declines in far-right support of 0.03–0.04 standard deviations. The effect exceeds 0.1 standard deviations in recent elections and is strongest in poorer areas and in towns with high prior far-right support. We find evidence consistent with the symbolic mechanism and mixed evidence for the economic one. TdF exposure increases local GDP per capita, effects on voting are larger when French riders win stages, and a two-wave survey around the 2025 TdF provides suggestive evidence that residents in exposed towns report greater pride and recognition. These results contribute to research on geographic inequalities, symbolic politics, and the electoral consequences of place-based interventions. |
| Date: | 2025–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fj4vh_v1 |
| By: | Keil, M.; Hagemann, V.; Glock, C.H. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:154019 |
| By: | Hai Yang; Joseph Y. J. Chow |
| Abstract: | Urban mobility is undergoing rapid transformation with the emergence of new services. Mobility hubs (MHs) have been proposed as physical-digital convergence points, offering a range of public and private mobility options in close proximity. By supporting Mobility-as-a-Service, these hubs can serve as focal points where travel decisions intersect with operator strategies. We develop a bilevel MH platform design model that treats MHs as control levers. The upper level (platform) maximizes revenue or flow by setting subsidies to incentivize last-mile operators; the lower level captures joint traveler-operator decisions with a link-based Perturbed Utility Route Choice (PURC) assignment, yielding a strictly convex quadratic program. We reformulate the bilevel problem to a single-level program via the KKT conditions of the lower level and solve it with a gap-penalty method and an iterative warm-start scheme that exploits the computationally cheap lower-level problem. Numerical experiments on a toy network and a Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) case (244 nodes, 469 links, 78 ODs) show that the method attains sub-1% optimality gaps in minutes. In the base LIRR case, the model allows policymakers to quantify the social surplus value of a MH, or the value of enabling subsidy or regulating the microtransit operator's pricing. Comparing link-based subsidies to hub-based subsidies, the latter is computationally more expensive but offers an easier mechanism for comparison and control. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.10465 |
| By: | Monica Deza; Maria Zhu |
| Abstract: | Using individual-level data from the Add Health surveys, we leverage idiosyncratic variation in gender composition across cohorts within the same school to examine whether being exposed to a higher share of female peers affects mental health and school satisfaction. We find that being exposed to a higher proportion of female peers, despite only improving school satisfaction for boys, improves mental health for both boys and girls. The benefits are greater among boys of low socioeconomic backgrounds, who would otherwise be more likely to be exposed to violent and disruptive peers. We find suggestive evidence that the mechanisms driving our findings are consistent with stronger school friendships for boys and better self-image and grades for girls. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I20 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34269 |
| By: | Moreau, Miza |
| Abstract: | Landscape and nature have a long-standing cultural association with women’s sex and gender, but urban landscapes are rarely examined as a gendered concept. Even feminist urbanism critique has had little engagement with urban landscapes. In relation to women, urban landscapes are often addressed through concerns of safety and access inequality. This paper argues that the spatial equity discussion has been misguidedly focused on conventional spaces that were conceived when women’s social subordination was the norm. Instead, the paper proposes that interstitial urban landscapes are potential sites for investigating and promoting gender equity. The paper analyses the contradictory gendered meanings of the concepts of urban, landscape, and nature, and how women’s grassroots actions in interstitial urban landscapes could begin to resolve some of these contradictions. Women’s participation in the production of urban landscapes on interstitial sites in Glasgow is discussed, presenting its opportunities and challenges to advance gender equity. |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5rs9m_v1 |
| By: | Seongmin Seo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | To promote Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) management in the private sector, the Korean central government is implementing support policies to enhance the overall ESG performance of domestic firms. These policies are based on the guidelines of the Korean Sustainable Development Goals (K-SDGs)and aligned with the national Fourth Basic Plan for sustainable Development.<p> At the local level, municipalities are pursuing policies to improve regional ESG by establishing relevant administrative governance structures. ESG strategies are rapidly diversifying at all levels of government.<p> This study focuses on the regional perspective, examining the current status and performance of ESG at the local level, and describing the implications carried by this analysis for strengthening ESG practices in the regional context. |
| Keywords: | regional economics; regional development; regional industry; ESG; Sustainable Development Goals; SDGs; Korean Sustainable Development Goals; K-SDGs; balanced regional development; ESG policy; environm |
| JEL: | G38 O18 R11 R58 R50 R51 |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:021547 |
| By: | Meekes, Jordy (Leiden University); van Lent, Max (Leiden University) |
| Abstract: | Child penalties in paid working hours are persistent and widen the gender earnings gap. This paper studies an important mechanism through which working hours are affected: peer effects. Using three unique layers of peer networks: neighbours, colleagues, and family, we analyse peer effects on individuals’ paid working hours. We analyse peer effects up to six years after childbirth on individuals who become first-time parents in the period 2014-2018, using Dutch full-population administrative monthly microdata up to September 2024. The identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in peers’ working hours through peers-of-peers. Our research is the first to establish long-term statistically significant peer effects on fathers’ working hours. The results indicate positive peer effects on fathers and mothers, where colleague peers are more important than neighbour peers and family peers. |
| Keywords: | peers-of-peers, paid working hours, colleague peers, neighbour peers, family peers |
| JEL: | J22 D85 C26 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18148 |
| By: | Aleksandra Kislenok (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Centre») |
| Abstract: | The development of any territorial system is the resulting dynamics of its components – in the case of a regions of the Russian Federation its constituent municipalities. It is at this level that economic agents and residents directly come into contact with the results of state policy to create favorable conditions for doing business and comfortable living. Comparative studies of socio-economic dynamics on a municipal region make it possible to identify territories with similar development characteristics, which forms a rationale for the implementation of targeted regional policy measures in relation to specific groups of territories. The article proposes a methodology for comparative assessment of the level of development of municipalities, based on integral assessments of the achieved level of economic development, economic dynamics and living conditions in the territory. An approach has been developed to group municipalities depending on the integrated estimates obtained in these areas. |
| Keywords: | system of indicators, socio-economic development, municipalities, living conditions |
| JEL: | O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-25 |
| By: | Verlinghieri, Ersilia; Papa, Enrica Professor (University of Westminster); Nikolaeva, Anna; Lanza, Giovanni; Pucci, Paola; Büttner, Benjamin; Prins, Annemiek; Witlox, Frank; Verhulst, Lennert; Bertolini, Luca |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces Commoning Accessibility (CA) as a new framework for understanding and enabling equitable access to urban services within the context of the 15-minute city (15mC). While the 15mC promotes proximity-based access to everyday amenities, it often overlooks the social and relational processes through which accessibility is produced and maintained. Drawing on emerging debates about commoning mobility and mobilities of care, we argue that accessibility should not be understood merely as a function of spatial proximity or individual mobility, but as a collectively shaped resource that emerges through shared practices, infrastructures, and governance. Inviting for a reflection on a wide range of underexplored community-led initiatives—from shared mobility schemes and care services to locally run facilities—that actively reshape access in ways aligned with the principles of commoning and framing those under the umbrella of CA, the paper propose a new research agenda. The research agenda is structured around five key areas: firstly, mapping enabling conditions for CA practices; secondly, understanding CA practices; thirdly, supporting the development of CA as experiments; fourthly, assessing CA impacts; and fifthly, identifying supportive policy frameworks. With such an agenda, the paper calls for a shift in accessibility planning—from top-down, metric-driven approaches to ones that centre collective agency, everyday interdependencies, and community-led innovation. This reorientation has significant implications for how accessibility is governed, experienced, and sustained in the pursuit of just mobilities. |
| Date: | 2025–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f2453_v1 |
| By: | Sandambi, Nerhum |
| Abstract: | They analyze decentralization in different areas, naturally considering fiscal decentralization, political-administrative decentralization, judicial decentralization, and legislative decentralization. Thus, the evidence shows precisely that the current unitary system adopted by Angola tends to channel a large part of the institutions towards marked and widespread failure. On the other hand, there is institutional failure related to the shortcomings of public policies determined by the authorities, whose institutional regime is still centralized. On the other hand, these institutions tend not to guarantee, for example, greater political diversity and greater democratic plurality. Therefore, I particularly propose inclusion through decentralization by means of a federalist model, considering the transformation of the current republic into a Federation of Angolan States. Examples of countries that have adopted the federalist model show the great capacity for transformation provided by federalist decentralization. Above all, fiscal decentralization has the capacity to plausibly associate economic transformations with judicial and legislative transformations in institutions. Angola, particularly with a federalist model, could provide structural and regional balance. For example, the regions could drive sustainable regional economic development with greater rigor, while public finances could optimize fiscal policy and budgetary policy could converge with medium- and long-term objectives. Thus, through a federalist model, economic transformations tend to be inclusive, especially based on institutional dynamics and sustainable growth. The federalist model I propose takes into account the preservation of ethno-linguistic groups through geographical continuity, with the preservation of subnational units and the inclusion of a new state with the capacity to become the future federal capital of Angola. |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dcp9w_v1 |
| By: | Jung, Yeonha; Kim, Minki (University of Mannheim); Lee, Munseob (University of California, San Diego) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term impact of Hyanggyo, state-sponsored educational institutions established during the early Joseon Dynasty in Korea (1392-1592), on human capital accumulation. Although these schools largely ceased functioning as educational centers by the late 16th century, their influence has endured to the present day. Drawing on a newly constructed township-level dataset, we find a robust positive association between historical exposure to Hyanggyo and modern educational attainment. This relationship appears to be driven by enduring local demand for education, supported by three complementary findings. First, regions with greater historical exposure experienced larger gains in Japanese literacy during colonial era school expansions. Second, residents in these areas express stronger pro-education attitudes today. Third, historically exposed regions exhibited lower fertility rates, consistent with a quantity–quality tradeoff in parental investment. Together, our findings highlight the lasting legacy of early educational institutions. |
| Keywords: | Hyanggyo, Human capital, historical institutions, Joseon, cultural transmission |
| JEL: | I23 J24 N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18123 |
| By: | Kartik Ganesh |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of Hurricane Harvey on wages and employment in the construction labor industry across impacted counties in Texas. Based on data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the period 2016-2019, I adopted a difference-in-differences event study approach by comparing results in 41 FEMA-designated disaster counties with a set of unaffected southern control counties. I find that Hurricane Harvey had a large and long-lasting impact on labor market outcomes in the construction industry. More precisely, average log wages in treated counties rose by around 7.2 percent compared to control counties two quarters after the hurricane and remained high for the next two years. Employment effects were more gradual, showing a statistically significant increase only after six quarters, in line with the lagged nature of large-scale reconstruction activities. These results imply that natural disasters can generate persistent labor demand shocks to local construction markets, with policy implications for disaster recovery planning and workforce mobilization. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.11501 |
| By: | Klara Blomberg; Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Manon Verougstraete |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the issue of local actors resisting the implementation of high-speed rail (HSR) routes through the example of reactions to the Brenner Base project in Germany and Austria. In order to understand the causes of significant resistance, the report contrasts reactions to the Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT) in Germany, where resistance and consequent delays are substantial, with reactions to the BBT in Austria, where resistance and delays are more limited. After tracing the evolution of local resistance in both countries, we confirm an important contrast between resistance in Germany and Austria. Our interviews with six Deutsche Bahn (DB) employees and an analysis of local news sources enable us to identify the politicisation of the project by local politicians as a primary cause of greater resistance in Germany. Our interviewees also pointed out the role of policy changes in tackling the problem of local resistance. It was highlighted that changes such as the 2017 Requirements Plan Implementation Agreement – which increased national authority over this kind of large-scale infrastructure project – may help to simplify future projects and reduce resistance to them. Learning lessons from failures in constructing large cross-border infrastructure is instrumental for the planning of bold, trans-European rail projects, as envisaged in the European Silk Road initiative. Among these lessons is the importance of anticipating and integrating localised dynamics and concerns into the planning process. Equally crucial is ensuring the early and balanced involvement of all key countries, as this fosters shared ownership and helps to reduce asymmetries in stakeholder engagement. |
| Keywords: | European Silk Road, high-speed rail, railway transport, infrastructure planning |
| JEL: | H54 L92 O18 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:98 |
| By: | Lara Loewenstein; Paul S. Willen; Yuxi Yao; David Hao Zhang |
| Abstract: | A recurring question in the mortgage default literature is why underwater default is rare relative to model predictions. We find that one answer is miscalibration of flow payoffs. We build a novel, detailed quantitative model of mortgage default and find that realistic rent dynamics plus mild levels of default costs are sufficient to eliminate negative-equity strategic default. We present further empirical results supporting our model's focus on flow payoffs. Our model addresses the underwater mortgage default puzzle, offers more realistic interpretations of policy consequences, and reinforces the theoretical effectiveness of cash-flow-based interventions. |
| Keywords: | mortgage default; strategic default; household balance sheets; household decision making |
| JEL: | D15 G51 R30 |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:101796 |
| By: | Michael Ostrovsky; Michael Schwarz |
| Abstract: | Building on the canonical "bottleneck" model of Vickrey (1969), we show that carpooling and road pricing are highly complementary in addressing traffic congestion: they can be much more effective jointly than each one separately, and can improve commuter welfare without having to rely on the redistribution of government revenue. By contrast, technological advances that make time in traffic more comfortable or productive (e.g., self-driving cars), implemented without additional economic incentives, may result in zero improvement in social welfare. |
| JEL: | D47 D62 H23 L98 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34261 |
| By: | Micael Castanheira De Moura; Giovanni Paolo Mariani; Clemence Tricaud |
| Abstract: | Public goods are meant to be universal, but they are inherently place-based. This paper systematically measures spatial access to public goods and quantifies the implications of distance to public facilities for income inequality. First, we map all schools and hospitals across Belgium. We compute the distance to facilities for each of the 20, 000 neighborhoods and document large spatial inequalities in access to public facilities. Second, we find that this unequal distribution favors high-income neighborhoods: allocating public goods spending proportionally to our access index increases income inequality compared to measures based solely on disposable income. Third, we show that the positive relationship between income and access can be rationalized by a simple model of public goods allocation with an inequality-neutral social planner. Finally, we provide evidence that access is strongly correlated with educational and health outcomes, emphasizing the need to consider the place-based nature of public goods when measuring inequality. |
| Keywords: | Public Goods, Inequality, Geography |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/393488 |
| By: | Dinarte Diaz, Lelys (World Bank); Gresham, James (World Bank); Lemos, Renata (World Bank); Patrinos, Harry Anthony (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Rodriguez-Ramirez, Rony (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from 3 experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia’s invasion. Conducted between 2023 and 2024, the experiments reached 10, 000 students across Ukraine. The program offered 3 hours per week of small-group tutoring in math and Ukrainian language over 6 weeks, and used academic and psychosocial tools to address student challenges at different intensities of disruption. Results show that the program led to substantial improvements in learning—0.49 standard deviations in math and 0.40 standard deviations in Ukrainian language—and consistent reductions in stress—0.12 standard deviations. High take-up and engagement rates were observed, and 4 mechanisms were identified as drivers of impact: structured peer interactions, improved attitudes toward learning, enhanced socio-emotional skills, and increased student investments. A complementary experiment using information nudges highlights challenges in promoting parental investments in a conflict setting. The program was cost-effective, with benefit-to-cost ratios ranging from 31-56, and scalable given its reliance on existing infrastructure and capacity. |
| Keywords: | student achievement, tutoring, wartime, Ukraine, mental health |
| JEL: | I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18117 |
| By: | Drydakis, Nick (Anglia Ruskin University) |
| Abstract: | The study evaluates the effectiveness of a 12-week AI module delivered to non-STEM university students in England, aimed at building students’ AI Capital. An integral part of the process involved the development and validation of the AI Capital of Students scale, used to measure AI Capital before and after the educational intervention. The module was delivered on four occasions to final-year students between 2023 and 2024, with follow-up data collected on students’ employment status. Moreover, AI Capital is positively associated with academic performance in AI-related coursework. However, disparities persist.students, White students, and those with stronger backgrounds in mathematics and empirical methods achieved higher levels of AI Capital and academic success. Furthermore, enhanced AI Capital is associated with higher employment rates six months after graduation. To provide a theoretical foundation for this pedagogical intervention, the study introduces and validates the AI Learning–Capital–Employment Transition model, which conceptualises the pathway from structured AI education to the development of AI Capital and, in turn, to improved employment outcomes. |
| Keywords: | university students, AI Capital, AI literacy, Artificial Intelligence, grades, academic performance, employment rates |
| JEL: | I23 I21 J24 J21 O33 O15 I24 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18138 |
| By: | Hossein Moradi (RMIT Europe - Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology - Europe); Rouba Iskandar (LIG - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Grenoble - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Sebastian Rodriguez (RMIT University - Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University); Dhirendra Singh (CSIRO Data61 [Sydney] - CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]); Julie Dugdale (Institut Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées de Grenoble (IMAG), LIG - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Grenoble - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Dimitrios Tzempelikos; Athanasios Sfetsos (NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"); Evangelia Bakogianni (NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"); Evrydiki Pavlidi (NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"); Josué Díaz; Margalida Ribas (UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands); Alexandre Moragues (UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands); Joan Estrany (UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands) |
| Abstract: | Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in disaster evacuation simulation to capture system level dynamics. While ABMs are often combined with human behavior models (HBMs), few approaches integrate these with infrastructure and demographic data that are carefully modeled using local knowledge, along with hazard-specific impacts and policy settings. Even fewer embed this integration within a co-creation loop that involves local stakeholders throughout the entire development lifecycle, from conception and design to implementation, testing, and beyond. This paper introduces the methodology that we developed to address this gap by combining a structured cocreation process with technical simulation development. The co-creation process engages local stakeholders, planners, and experts to iteratively shape evacuation scenarios, define assumptions, and validate outcomes, ensuring the model aligns with local realities. These inputs are translated into a multi-dimensional simulation framework built in MATSim, integrating network and infrastructure models, hazard effects, population, and behavior modeling enhanced through Belief-Desire-Intention cognitive architectures. We applied this methodology in different case study areas, demonstrating its capacity to simulate heterogeneous evacuation dynamics and provide diverse performance metrics. Finally, we explore how this methodology can be applied in other hazards, geographic regions, and evacuation scenarios, offering pathways for broader application and future development. |
| Keywords: | Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Evacuation Simulation, Co-creation Processes, Human Behavior Models, Agent-Based Models |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05267465 |
| By: | Agarwal, Sumit; Choudhury, Smarajit Paul; Fan, Mingxuan; Klapper, Leora |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the short-run economic impact of 21 Atlantic hurricanes on U.S. local business activity from 2017 to 2024 using anonymized Mastercard transaction data aggregated by ZIP code. On average, hurricanes reduce merchant sales by 12.4 percent during the preparation, impact, and recovery phases—an estimated US$1.38 billion in lost revenue per storm. Substitution in spending across nearby areas or large online platforms is limited, indicating widespread local consumption declines. Economic disruption varies more by industry than storm intensity, with independent stores hit harder than chains. Local businesses with larger online presence face smaller, shorter sales declines, showing greater resilience. |
| Date: | 2025–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11217 |
| By: | Ervin, Paul; Gayoso, Lyliana; Rubiano Matulevich, Eliana Carolina |
| Abstract: | Floods are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, population growth, and land cover changes. In Paraguay, floods are the most common weather-related hazard and disproportionately impact poor and vulnerable populations. This study contributes to understanding household-level exposure to flood risk in Paraguay by combining geolocated household survey data with novel flood hazard maps. The study estimates that more than 23 percent of households are exposed to flood risk, with exposure varying by geography and household characteristics. Urban households living in poverty are among the most exposed, facing depths of flooding nearly four times higher than non-poor households, in smaller, more common flood events. The approach provides valuable insights for targeting flood risk reduction efforts and highlights the importance of considering socioeconomic vulnerability in disaster risk management. These findings underscore the multidimensional nature of vulnerability to flood risk, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas, and the need for integrated urban planning and poverty reduction strategies to address flood risk disparities effectively, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas. |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11215 |
| By: | De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria); Nistico, Roberto (University of Naples Federico II); Scoppa, Vincenzo (University of Calabria) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of co-workers’ fertility on individual fertility decisions. Using matched employer-employee data from Italian social security records (2016–2020), we estimate how fertility among co-workers of similar age and occupation affects the individual likelihood of having a child. We exploit variation introduced by the 2015 Jobs Act, which reduced fertility among workers hired under weaker employment protection. Focusing on workers hired before the reform and using the share of colleagues hired after the reform as an instrument for peer fertility, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in peer fertility raises individual fertility by 0.4 percentage points (a 10% increase). Heterogeneity analysis suggests that while social influence and social norms are key mechanisms, information sharing and career concerns, particularly among women, tend to moderate the response. Our findings highlight how changes in employment protection may have unintended fertility spillovers through workplace social interactions. |
| Keywords: | social learning, fertility, EPL, career concerns, social norms, workplace |
| JEL: | C3 J13 J65 J41 M51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18127 |
| By: | Balsimelli Ghelli, Bianca; Gallo, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | Acquiring citizenship is associated with better economic and social opportunities for immigrants. This paper examines how, in a country with a large fraction of migrants, marriage decisions respond to a change in the legal status of foreign residents. The variation in the relationship between citizenship status and the propensity for mixed marriages could be influenced by the dominance of either the assimilation hypothesis or the status exchange hypothesis. Using individual-level data from the populated municipality of Modena, Emilia- Romagna (Italy), we find that the assimilation hypothesis prevails: the more immigrants integrate into host countries, the more likely they are to marry natives. Specifically, our results show that acquiring citizenship not only increases the likelihood of marriage but also significantly boosts the formation of mixed couples. |
| Keywords: | Citizenship, intermarriage, foreign population, administrative data |
| JEL: | J12 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1669 |
| By: | Nina Ruer; Nina Vujanović |
| Abstract: | Migration to Germany is shaping the Western Balkans for better and worse, highlighting the need for reforms to harness benefits and mitigate drawbacks |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_11297 |
| By: | Leishman, Chris; Hewton, Jack; Ong, Rachel; Washington, Lynette; Zhang, Rui; Liang, Weidong |
| Abstract: | What this research is about: this research looked at how Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA) affects low-income families who rent privately. It focused on housing, money, health and wellbeing outcomes for parents and children. It also looks at the role of CRA in reducing disadvantage passing from parents to children. The forms of disadvantage considered in the report include poor housing, financial, wellbeing and health outcomes. Why this research is important: CRA is Australia's biggest housing support program. It cost the federal government $5.5 billion in 2023-2024. However, there is little research on how CRA affects recipients and their children. This research helps to understand how effective CRA is at reducing disadvantage and improving wellbeing. It also shows how these effects pass to children of households that receive CRA. |
| Date: | 2025–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e94w5_v1 |
| By: | Chauvin, Juan Pablo; Chauvin, Jasmina; Chaves, Giovanna |
| Abstract: | We study the causal effect of reducing distance-related frictions with headquarters on branch outcomes in multi-unit firms in Brazil. Exploiting the introduction of new airline routes, we compare branches that gain a direct flight to their headquarters with otherwise similar branches in the same location that do not. In contrast to prior findings from high-income country settings, improved connectivity with headquarters lowers 12-month survival and, conditional on survival, reduces service and production employment. To interpret these results, we develop a model with three distance-dependent frictions: i) internal coordination costs of delivering headquarters inputs to branches, ii) client-service costs when serving markets without a local branch, and iii) a moral-hazard friction whereby distance amplifies local managers' incentives to over-hire. Consistent with the model's predictions, survival declines are larger at closer branches, while employment reductions are concentrated at more distant branches and in firms with lower headquarters bandwidth. The model clarifies how the impact of reduced frictions with headquarters depends on pre-existing distortions and reconciles heterogeneous connectivity effects observed across developing- and high-income contexts. |
| JEL: | D21 D22 D24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14268 |
| By: | Hajare El Hadri (Marie and Louis Pasteur University, Orléans University); Réda Marakbi (Artois University, University of Lille) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a new theoretical framework to explain how secularity influences migration aspirations in the Arab world. We argue that secular individuals incur significant psychological costs when living in highly religious societies. This value incongruence pushes them to seek out more secular environments, whereas strongly religious individuals face higher cultural costs of moving and thus prefer to stay. We derive testable hypotheses on how individual secularity and socio-political secularity act as push–pull factors for different communities and migration destinations. We then test these hypotheses using 2018–2019 Arab Barometer data from eleven MENA countries. We construct original indices for individual secularity and socio-political secularity via multiple correspondence analysis. Consistent with our theory, probit and instrumental- variable probit estimates show that secular individuals are significantly more likely to express intentions to emigrate – particularly to highly secular Western countries. Among Muslim majority populations, both individual and socio-political secularity increase the desire to migrate, whereas among Christian minorities only individual secularity has this effect. Moreover, secularity drives regular migration aspirations, with no measurable im- pact on irregular migration except in the case of religiously unaffiliated “nones, †who exhibit a heightened willingness to migrate by any means. These findings contribute to the migration literature by emphasizing the substantial, yet previously underexplored, influence of secular beliefs and practices on migratory behavior in the Arab context. |
| Keywords: | Arabworld, migration, religiosity, secularity |
| JEL: | F J |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2025.11 |
| By: | Muellbauer, John |
| Abstract: | This note complements the 'Q and A' dealing with common questions on the property tax proposal initially explained in a brief article in August 2025 in the Financial Times (see my longer article for more detail on the proposal). This note examines the expected tax revenues from implementing my property tax proposal, using a range of possible assumptions. These revenue estimates are compared with estimates of current council tax revenues from band G and H properties. My complementary policy suggestion of cutting stamp duty to a maximum rate of 5%, but retaining current allowances, is discussed in Question 14 in the accompanying Q & A document (also summarised in the conclusions). |
| Keywords: | council tax, housing, macroeconomics, property tax |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-18-a |
| By: | Dey, Shubham; Uwasu, Michinori |
| Abstract: | Japan faces the challenge of depopulation and economic decline in rural areas. This research focuses on regional revitalization, primarily exploring the methods and policies that are concerned with the one village one product (OVOP). Recently, the Government of India launched the One district one product (ODOP) initiative which has a similar model that leverages regional strengths to address societal challenges and drive inclusive development. By examining case studies from both the countries, focusing on innovation and local resources, these policies should empower communities to harness their potential, leading to sustainable economic growth and enhanced quality of life. The research aims to identify the potential factors that led to the successful implementation of cases, creating a sustainable development based on branding a cultural commodity and testing its scalability and adaptability for policy formulations in countries facing acute depopulation or considering similar initiatives to rejuvenate rural economies. |
| Date: | 2025–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:42ag7_v1 |
| By: | Christopher Cotton; Brent R. Hickman; John A. List; Joseph Price; Sutanuka Roy |
| Abstract: | Using field-experimental data (study-time tracking and randomized incentives), we identify a structural model of learning. Student effort is influenced by external costs/benefits and unobserved heterogeneity: motivation (willingness to study) and productivity (conversion rate of time into skill). We estimate academic labor-supply elasticities and skill technology. Productivity and motivation are uncorrelated. Low productivity, not low motivation, is the stronger predictor of academic struggles. School quality augments productivity and accelerates skill production. We find that dynamic skill complementarities arise mainly from children’s aging and from a feedback loop between investment activity and productivity, rather than from carrying forward past skill stocks. |
| JEL: | C90 C92 C93 I21 I22 I24 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34274 |
| By: | Lorenzo Aldeco Leo; Horacio Reyes Rocha |
| Abstract: | We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in Mexico between 2005 and 2020 using city level data. We overcome the endogeneity of unemployment and core inflation through a panel instrumental variable strategy. Time-period fixed effects account for aggregate supply, demand, and expectation variables, while possible endogeneity between unemployment and core inflation at the city-quarter level is addressed with local labor demand shock instruments. We find a statistically significant Phillips curve linking local unemployment to local core inflation in Mexico, but this relationship is relatively weak: an increase of 1 percentage point in city-level unemployment lowers year-on-year core inflation by approximately 0.18 percentage points. We analyze city-level characteristics that relate to steeper Phillips curves, and find that informality rates, cash transfers, and some demographic characteristics in cities strengthen the relationship between unemployment and inflation. |
| Keywords: | Phillips Curve;Core Inflation;Unemployment;Instrumental Variables;Panel Data;Labor Market |
| JEL: | J23 C23 C26 E31 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2025-14 |
| By: | Tom‡s Larroucau (Arizona State University); Ignacio A. Rios (The University of Texas at Dallas); Ana•s Fabre (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Christopher Neilson (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether large-scale information interventions can improve college application outcomes in a centralized admissions system. Using nationwide surveys from Chile, we document widespread information frictions and frequent application mistakes, such as omitting attainable preferred programs or failing to include safety options. To address these frictions, we partnered with the Ministry of Education to implement a large-scale field experiment that provided applicants with personalized information on admission probabilities and program characteristics through customized online platforms. The intervention increased the probability that previously unmatched students received an assignment by 44% and improved placement into higher-ranked programs by 20%. Building on these results, the policy was scaled nationwide, reaching all applicants. The scaled-up version, evaluated via an encouragement design, confirmed substantial gains, including higher admission rates for initially unmatched students and persistent enrollment improvements. Our findings show that low-cost, personalized information policies, when integrated into centralized admissions platforms, can substantially reduce application mistakes and improve student outcomes at scale. The results also highlight how leveraging existing market design infrastructure can enable scalable, cost-effective interventions that enhance efficiency and equity in higher education access. |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2461 |
| By: | Zohal Hessami; Sebastian Schirner; Clara Wobbe |
| Abstract: | How do asylum seekers affect host-country economies from a supply and demand perspective? What share of such immigration shocks is absorbed by existing vs. new businesses? To study these questions, we combine exclusive business registration and asylum seeker data for the universe of German districts over 2007-2021. We address endogeneity in asylum seeker allocation by exploiting rule-based allocation quotas as an instrument. A one SD treatment (10 asylum seekers/1, 000 inhabitants) leads to 0.7 new businesses (7.9% increase) including 2.7 full-time jobs per 1, 000 inhabitants. A sector-level analysis suggests that the founding of new businesses is both supply- (additional workforce) and demand-driven (need for basic goods/services), while the demand effect kicks in first. District-level employment data shows that total job creation is about four times larger, suggesting that 75% of the immigration shock is absorbed by existing businesses. |
| Keywords: | asylum seekers, business registrations, host-country economy |
| JEL: | F22 J20 L26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12151 |
| By: | Subhasish Dugar (Department of Economics, University of Utah); Kenju Kamei (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Performance pay raises productivity but can also trigger costly peer dynamics, which can influence workers’ preferences over pay schemes. We test whether sabotage risk drives compensation choices using a field experiment with Indian vegetable packers. Workers first perform under exogenously assigned tournaments that differ only in pay inequality but are equivalent in total payout, then choose between them, enabling endogenous sorting. Under impartial expert evaluation, workers select steeper tournaments, indicating no aversion to inequality or competition. Under peer evaluation, sabotage escalates sharply with pay dispersion, prompting workers to preemptively prefer more equitable schemes. Our study expands the literature on labor market sorting by identifying sabotage risk as a fundamental driver of sorting and shows how destructive peer dynamics can rationalize compressed wage structures in practice. |
| Keywords: | Field experiment, Pay equity, Tournament, Sabotage, Sorting. |
| JEL: | C93 J31 M52 D81 |
| Date: | 2025–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2025-020 |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the two-way relationship between international migration and political regime change, highlighting a feedback loop in which political shifts shape migration flows, while migration itself reshapes political trajectories. Relying on a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework and a dataset combining migration flows, regime quality indicators (CHRI), and measures of international integration, we identify three central results. First, substantial immigration into politically fragile democracies undermines institutional quality. The 2015 Syrian shock provides a particularly valuable exogenous case: a sudden, large-scale refugee inflow that bypassed domestic policy controls and provoked sharp political responses, allowing for clearer identification of immigration’s institutional effects. Second, democratic decline increases emigration, draining human capital and further weakening prospects for democratic recovery. Third, international integration—most notably through EU accession—conditions these dynamics, amplifying or dampening the outflow response to political change. Taken together, these findings show that migration is not merely a symptom of political instability but also a driver of institutional transformation, simultaneously reinforcing and accelerating regime shifts toward illiberalism. |
| JEL: | F22 J1 P0 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34242 |
| By: | Soheil Mohammadi (DICCA - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] - UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa); Silvia De Angeli (LOTERR - Centre de Recherche en Géographie - UL - Université de Lorraine, LIEC - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, DICCA - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] - UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa); Fabrizio Bruno (DICCA - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] - UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa, Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Palazzo del Broletto, Piazza Vittoria 15, 27100 Pavia, Italy); Ilenia Spadaro (DICCA - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] - UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa); Giorgio Boni (DICCA - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] - UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa); Serena Cattari (DICCA - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] - UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa); Francesca Pirlone (DICCA - Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica e Ambientale [Genova] - UniGe - Università degli studi di Genova = University of Genoa) |
| Abstract: | Engaging stakeholders in disaster recovery planning helps identify recovery needs accurately and integrates diverse perspectives into planning procedures. This study presents a quali-quantitative participatory method for identifying the urban functions that must be preserved to initiate the recovery process and ensure the rapid restoration of the entire urban system. The method involves evaluating the relative importance of different functions and analyzing their interdependencies through participatory fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) with local stakeholders. The inclusion of diverse stakeholders facilitates precise need assessment, fosters dynamic information exchange and promotes innovative, user-centred, bottom-up interventions that better reflect the realities of the affected communities. The approach was tested in a case study conducted in Sanremo, Italy, as part of broader research aimed at developing a decision support system to expedite recovery processes and enhance urban resilience. The participatory FCM session in Sanremo identified essential functions beyond emergency services, including supermarkets, educational services and pharmacies, centred around the temporary shelter function, which emerged as pivotal during the recovery process. A critical analysis of the FCM-based approach highlights its benefits and offers insights for further strengthening participatory planning in disaster recovery. | IntroductionInvolving stakeholders in disaster recovery planning helps ensure that recovery priorities are accurately identified, promotes meaningful dialogue among participants and brings together diverse viewpoints that can strengthen the overall planning process (Chandrasekhar et al. 2014). Understanding the needs and capacities of the community integrates various viewpoints into recovery plans, promoting the development of resilience in disaster-affected communities ( |
| Keywords: | stakeholder involvement, participatory planning, natural hazard disasters, graph analysis, FCM, FCM graph analysis natural hazard disasters participatory planning stakeholder involvement |
| Date: | 2025–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05245052 |
| By: | Kumar Gautam, Santosh (University of Notre Dame); Ilirjani, Ermal (Albanian Development Fund); Ukil, Patralekha (San Jose State University) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of investment in rural roads on household welfare in Albania. Using a difference-in-differences method, we find that treated households experienced a 35-percentage point increase in the quality of roads relative to control households and reduced travel times to the nearest motorable roads. The study also demonstrates that the price and value of residential and farmland increased in the treated communities. Household heads in treated communities were less likely to be unemployed, and there was a higher incidence of self-employment in treated households, which seems to suggest a pattern of households shifting away from paid employment to self-employment in response to improved economic opportunities due to improved connectivity. The study does not find a significant effect on household income, but finds an increase in consumption expenditure. In general, these findings indicate that investments in rural roads have had positive impacts on the welfare of the family in Albania. |
| Keywords: | Food expenditure, Income, Rural roads, Albania |
| JEL: | O18 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18116 |
| By: | Thackway, William; Soundararaj, Balamurugan; Pettit, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Despite housing supply shortages in financialised housing markets and acknowledgement of planning application (PA) assessment times as a supply side constraint, reliable and accessible information on PA assessment timeframes is limited. It is in this context that we built a model to predict and explain PA assessment timeframes in New South Wales, Australia. We constructed a dataset of 17, 000 PAs (submitted over 3 years) comprising PA attributes, environmental and zoning restrictions, and features derived from PA descriptions using natural language processing techniques. Quantile regression was applied using machine learning modelling to predict probabilistic intervals for assessment timeframes. We then employed an advanced model explanation tool to analyse feature contributions on an overall and individual PA basis. The best performing model, an extreme gradient boosted machine (XGB), achieved an R2 of 0.431, predicting 60.9% of assessment times within one month of actual values. While performance is moderate, the model significantly improves upon previous studies and the current best practice in NSW, which is simply average estimates, by council area, for PA assessment timeframes. The paper concludes by outlining suggestions for further improving model performance and on the benefits of a predictive tool for planners. |
| Date: | 2025–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:prm25_v1 |
| By: | Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes (Department of Economics, University of California, Merced); Esther Arenas-Arroyo (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Parag Mahajan (Department of Economics, University of Delaware); Bernhard Schmidpeter (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | How do migrant workers impact firm performance? We exploit an unexpected Change in firms’ likelihood of securing low-wage workers through the U.S. H-2B visa program to address this question. Using comprehensive administrative data, we find that access to H-2B workers raises firms’ annual revenues and survival likelihood. We do not find evidence of crowding out of non-H-2B workers or negative spillover effects on competitor firms. Our results support the notion that formal guest worker programs can mitigate labor shortages while limiting harm to incumbent workers. |
| Keywords: | guest workers, migrants, employment, firm dynamics, H-2B visa |
| JEL: | J23 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp384 |
| By: | Petach, Luke |
| Abstract: | Prior to the widespread adoption of barbed wire in the late 19th century, the absence of cheap fencing materials in the western United States led to violent conflict in the presence of competing claims over land-use. Using data from the full count U.S. Censuses of Mortality for the years 1850 to 1880, I demonstrate that an increase in the cost of property rights enforcement- captured by an increase in fencing costs per-acre-results in an increase in violent mortality. The effect of fence prices on violent mortality is exacerbated in counties with a greater degree of agricultural land-use polarization. The main findings are supported by an instrumental variables specification using the county woodland area share-a measure of the local scarcity of natural fencing materials, and a placebo specification demonstrating that fence prices have no effect on infectious disease mortality. |
| Keywords: | Property Rights, the West, Barbed Wire, Violent Conflict |
| JEL: | N41 D23 K42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1672 |
| By: | Cowan, Benjamin (Washington State University); Jones, Todd R. (Mississippi State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how people adjust their time use when experiencing more time alone, a growing share of adults’ lives. We exploit the dramatic rise in remote work following the onset of the pandemic, which sharply reduced time spent with non-household members during the workday, to study whether individuals substitute toward more in-person interactions outside of work. On days individuals work from home, they spend 3.5 more hours in activities spent entirely alone and over 5 fewer hours in activities that include any non-household members. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we compare pre- and post-pandemic changes in time use for workers in teleworkable versus non-teleworkable occupations to ask what happens to time allocations when workers are induced toward remote work. Averaging over all days, teleworkable workers spend 32 more minutes in activities spent entirely alone and 38 fewer minutes in activities that include any non-household members. Normalizing by their 46-minute increase in remote work, these effects are of a similar magnitude to our descriptive estimates. We find almost no substitution toward spending more time with others outside the household to offset lost in-person interactions at work. |
| Keywords: | social isolation, work from home, time use |
| JEL: | J22 J24 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18112 |