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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Jamil, Haziq |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first spatio-temporal analysis of property prices in Brunei Darussalam, a small, resource-rich economy with distinct housing market characteristics. Despite global interest in quantitative housing market analyses, Brunei’s market remains underexplored, with prior studies predominantly qualitative. Addressing this gap, N=3763 residential transactions from 2015 to 2023 were analysed using Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) priors to model spatial dependencies and temporal trends in house prices accounting for other price determinants. Emerging Hotspot Analysis was then employed to classify price clustering across time. Key findings revealed significant spatial autocorrelation (ρ=0.43) and temporal persistence best modeled by an autoregressive structure of order two, indicating that market reactions to changes can extend up to 6 months. The results demonstrate the critical role of spatial and temporal factors in shaping property prices, providing actionable insights for policy interventions and real estate market analysis, particularly in addressing disparities between urban and rural housing markets. |
| Keywords: | Brunei Darussalam; conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models; housing market; residential property prices; spatial imputation; spatio-temporal analysis |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128563 |
| By: | Keisuke Takano; Yuta Kuroda; Toru Murayama |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the neighborhood socioeconomic status differentiates school quality. To address this issue, we exploit the elimination of school zones in public high schools in Nagasaki City, Japan. Before the elimination in 2002, the local government assigned students to each school depending on test scores and residence to equalize the educational level across schools. While the reform enabled the students to choose a school on their own, the gap in academic performance across schools has widened. We found that one possible reason for this gap is the concentration of students from highly educated areas to schools with location advantages in terms of accessibility. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:dssraa:147 |
| By: | Iodice Silvia (European Commission - JRC); Van Heerden Sjoerdje; Barranco Ricardo (European Commission - JRC); Bertoni Eleonora (European Commission - JRC); Curtale Riccardo (European Commission - JRC); Gabrielli Lorenzo (European Commission - JRC); Signorelli Serena (European Commission - JRC); Sulis Patrizia (European Commission - JRC); Timbeau Xavier |
| Abstract: | This study examines the association between short-term tourist rentals and urban housing markets, local services, and liveability in three major European cities: Paris, Milan, and Rome. Using empirical, place-based longitudinal data, the research finds a statistically significant positive correlation between the shares of short-term rentals and the advertised selling prices in Milan and Rome, with areas having higher shares of Airbnb apartments experiencing higher property values. In Paris, there is a positive association with middle-sized houses, with higher transaction prices related to an increase in short-term rental shares. Additionally, the study reveals that short-term rentals are associated with declining residential services and increasing tourist-oriented services in Milan and Paris. However, survey data among residents suggests that the perceived liveability of neighbourhoods is not significantly affected by tourism and short-term rentals, despite some concerns about different forms of displacement. This study contributes to the debate about balanced development of the short-term rental sector and the need to exploit opportunities brought about by the tourism activity while also protecting liveability for the locals and the availability of affordable housing for all. Moreover, this analysis highlights the need to deepen the research about the socioeconomic impacts of tourism at high spatial resolution to draw evidence-based implications for urban planning and policymaking. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140885 |
| By: | Ghizlen Ouasbaa (Pompeu Fabra & IEB); Albert Solé-Ollé (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of city council members with real estate backgrounds on housing supply in California 1995-2019. Using candidate occupation data and a close-elections regression discontinuity design, we find that electing a developer increases approved housing units by 68% during their term. This effect fades after one term, suggesting developers influence zoning decisions more than long-term policy change. Analysis of votes extracted from council meetings shows they are especially effective in securing discretionary zoning approvals. Importantly, we find no evidence of electoral backlash, suggesting voters are generally supportive of housing expansion led by pro-development candidates. |
| Keywords: | Land-use Policies, Housing Market, Interest Groups |
| JEL: | P00 R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-05 |
| By: | Federico Barbiellini Amidei (Bank of Italy); Matteo Gomellini (Bank of Italy); Lorenzo Incoronato (CSEF, University of Naples Federico II, CESifo, CReAM and Rockwool Foundation Berlin); Paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between demographic change and entrepreneurship and highlights its spatial dimension. We digitize historical censuses to reconstruct entrepreneurship rates and the age structure of Italian provinces since1960. We develop an estimation framework that relates entrepreneurship to granular age cohorts of the local population, leveraging instrumental variables to address endogeneity issues. Our results uncover stark regional heterogeneity. In Northern Italy, we find a hump-shaped age-entrepreneurship profile peaking at cohorts aged 30-40. In the South, entrepreneurship increases with age. Regional differences in the local business environment partly account for different estimated profiles. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, demographic change, regional differences, long run |
| JEL: | J11 L26 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:752 |
| By: | Duncan, Denvil; Ross, Justin |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the causal impact of Airbnb expansion on local housing prices by exploiting the 2017 total solar eclipse as a natural experiment. The eclipse's path of totality created a exogenous temporary demand for short-term rentals that resulted in a persistent increase in area supply of Airbnb listings. The IV/2SLS results indicate that a one percent increase in Airbnb listings generates a 0.037 to 0.043 percent increase in housing prices, a magnitude consistent with other causal research on this question. However, we provide additional evidence that our result is driven by homeowners' willingness to accept (WTA) due to increased rental income from monetizing excess housing capacity, whereas previous research largely reports estimates that combine this effect with demand-driven displacements of long-term housing supply. These findings suggest that WTA effects play a major role in Airbnb's influence for more efficient utilization of housing as an asset, and that regulations that partially pan investor listings will have muted effects on housing affordability. |
| Keywords: | Airbnb, housing market, home sharing, digital platform economy, housing price |
| JEL: | R29 R31 H31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:319897 |
| By: | Annette Alstadsæter (NMBU); Matthew Collin (EU Tax Observatory); Bluebery Planterose (EU Tax Observatory); Gabriel Zucman (EU Tax Observatory); Andreas Økland (NMBU) |
| Abstract: | This note presents new evidence on the scale of foreign investment in the Dubai residential property market. Using new data comprising the ownership of a large share of the Dubai property market, we present updated estimates of foreign-owned real estate for the years 2020 and 2022. We find that foreign nationals hold around 43% of the total value of all residential property in the city. Foreign-owned residential real estate grew by 20%—around $23 billion—between the beginning of 2020 and early 2022. We also find evidence of a substantial boom in Russian interest in the city following the invasion of Ukraine, with both utility accounts and residential leases associated with Russian nationals increasing sharply. Relying on simple assumptions to allocate new property purchases across nationalities, we conservatively estimate that Russians bought up to $2.4 billion worth of existing properties and a further $3.9 billion of in-development properties since the invasion. |
| Keywords: | Foreign real estate ownership, money laundering, global asset registry |
| JEL: | H26 F38 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:plnote:010 |
| By: | Daniel Montolio (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Pere A. Taberner (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB & KSNET) |
| Abstract: | Student performance at university significantly influences individual decisions and future opportunities, especially in labour markets. This paper analyses the impact of local crime on student performance during higher education, with a focus on potential gender differences. Following students over their bachelor’s years, the identification strategy exploits granular local crime variation – violent and non-violent crimes – near students’ residences before sitting a final exam. We consider both spatial and temporal patterns of crime exposure by estimating a panel data model with student, exam and district-month fixed-effects to provide causal estimates. Our findings suggest that violent crimes have a negative impact on student performance, while non-violent have no significant effect. Notably, the results are mainly driven by high-ability female students, with suggestive evidence that male students in the bottom or middle parts of the grade distribution are also affected. |
| Keywords: | Local violent crime, academic performance, higher education, gender differences |
| JEL: | A22 I23 J16 K42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-07 |
| By: | José Pedro Pontes |
| Abstract: | We model the expansion of (higher) education in an economy composed by regions that only di??er in population density. The schooling process takes place sequentially across regions in descending order of demographic density and it implies a substitution of modern industrial technologies for traditional land-based ones. Under the crucial assumption that young people may travel to school within the region where they live, but not across regions, the model explains why both the literacy rate and per capita income increase, albeit at a decreasing rate. Furthermore, is allows us to understand why the average students’ commuting distance tends to rise despite the geographical decentralization of the educational system. |
| Keywords: | Education Spread, Population Density, Spatial Monopolistic Competition, Wage Premium of Education, Modern versus Traditional Technology. |
| JEL: | O18 R11 I20 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03832025 |
| By: | Rachel Cho; Hisham Farag; Christoph Gortz; Danny McGowan; Huyen Nguyen; Max Schroeder |
| Abstract: | Is there a multicultural neighbourhood price premium? We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in British colonization patterns in Northern Ireland during the early 1600s which created neigh bourhoods of varying religious composition that persists until today. These religious groups are culturally distinct, but are observationally equivalent ethnically and socioeconomically. A standard deviation increase neighbourhood–level multiculturalism raises house prices by 9.6%. Multiculturalism raises property prices by increasing asset liquidity and housing demand as a wider spectrum of society demand houses in these areas. The findings and mechanism contrast sharply with prior evidence showing negative relationships due to homophily, social networks, and identification challenges. |
| Keywords: | Multiculturalism, House prices, Homophily, Segregation |
| JEL: | D1 G5 R21 R31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:571 |
| By: | Matthew Collin (EU Tax Observatory); Karan Mishra (EU Tax Observatory); Andreas Økland (NMBU) |
| Abstract: | This note addresses the significant concerns associated with anonymous real estate ownership in the United States, highlighting how a considerable amount of property, including residential real estate, is held via corporate entities that conceal the true owners. Analyzing data from three major US cities, New York, Miami and Boston, we reveal the limitations of current methods in accurately identifying foreign ownership and propose solutions for federal and state authorities to enhance transparency and understanding of the extent of cross-border real estate ownership. Without such measures, the enigma of anonymous ownership persists, obstructing our collective grasp of its breadth and implications. The fact that the size and scope of foreign investment in US real estate remains a mystery is not a data problem, but a policy one. |
| Keywords: | Anonymous ownership, real estate transparency, foreign investment |
| JEL: | H26 K34 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:plnote:011 |
| By: | Ansell, Ben; Daunton, Martin; Grundy, Emily; Muellbauer, John; Murphy, Michael; Offer, Avner; Smith, Susan J. |
| Abstract: | British housing systems seem trapped in a ‘perfect storm’ of rising costs, declining choice, affordability stress, and unmet need. Housing outcomes are increasingly polarised, with implications for intergenerational conflict, economic and social inequalities, and environmental sustainability. There is no easy explanation, and no quick fix. These six short reflections, shared during an interdisciplinary meeting of Fellows of the British Academy, on the origins, impacts, and future of the present housing ‘crisis’ are thus timely provocations adding momentum to key debates. This article accompanies another in this issue, ‘The UK housing emergency: personal reflections’, by Shani Dhanda, Susan J. Smith, and Jessie Speer. |
| Keywords: | financialisation; housing costs; housing crisis; housing demography; housing environments; housing systems; residential property taxation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128781 |
| By: | Hedlund, Aaron (Purdue University); Larkin, Kieran (University College London); Mitman, Kurt (Stockholm University); Ozkan, Serdar (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of mortgage market structures on shaping economic responses to the unprecedented interest rate and inflation dynamics of 2021-2024. We first empirically document that economies with a larger share of variable-rate mortgages exhibit stronger responses in house prices to monetary policy shocks. We then develop and calibrate a structural model of the housing market to demonstrate that these mortgage structures can account for a substantial portion of the divergent house price paths observed across the US, Canada, Sweden, and the UK during the Great Inflation. Our analysis reveals that early pandemic mortgage rate cuts drove 45% of the US house price boom. Economies dominated by adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) show greater price sensitivity to monetary tightening, while fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) regimes exhibit more pronounced path dependence due to a lock-in effect. These dynamics have significant distributional consequences, with low-income homeowners benefiting most, especially in FRM regimes. Finally, we show that the preferred monetary tightening path is regime-dependent, as a policy counterfactual reveals that FRM-dominant economies benefit more from a shorter and sharper tightening schedule. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous agents, monetary policy, mortgages, housing, inflation |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17971 |
| By: | Punt, Matthijs B. |
| Abstract: | Community enterprises are often deeply embedded in local contexts, making it difficult for them to scale beyond their original setting. Recent literature suggests this challenge may also arise from intra-logic variation—differences in how “community” is defined and enacted across places. This paper builds on that insight by examining the local emergence of three types of environmental community enterprises—renewable energy cooperatives, food forests, and repair cafés—in the Netherlands. It analyzes how social, environmental, knowledge, and institutional dimensions of the community logic shape their spatial distribution. Using quantitative modeling, the study finds that each enterprise type is driven by different local conditions: social capital for RE co-ops, ecological awareness for food forests, and educational infrastructure for repair cafés. The study contributes to institutional logics theory and social enterprise literature by showing that “scaling across” varies meaningfully by type and place. |
| Date: | 2025–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2djuf_v1 |
| By: | Brian Potter; Chad Syverson |
| Abstract: | We take a long, broad, and theoretically agnostic view toward the connection between building costs and house prices in the US housing market. We find that building costs have never had all that much explanatory power over US housing prices, but even the imperfect correlations of the past have weakened further in recent decades along multiple dimensions. |
| JEL: | E2 L7 R3 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33958 |
| By: | Heriaud Bastien; Joossens Elisabeth (European Commission - JRC); Le Blanc Julia (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "A regional resilience dashboard is a powerful tool to visualise and assess each European regionâs capabilities and vulnerabilities and guide policymakers. Modelled after the Commissionâs Resilience Dashboards, the Regional Resilience Dashboard indicates significant disparities of capacities and vulnerabilities among regions within each country.There is a strong negative correlation between capacities and vulnerabilities among regions within each country confirming that regions with heightened vulnerabilities frequently possess diminished capacities, and vice versa. Regions situated at the EU's periphery, particularly in South-Eastern Europe, exhibit lower capacity and heightened vulnerability indices while urban regions and those encompassing national capitals show higher capacities and reduced vulnerabilities. Between 2017 and 2023 vulnerabilities diminished and capacities improved slightly across all EU regions. At the same time, inequalities in resilience across regions increased." |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc141990 |
| By: | Xu, Lei (Loughborough University); Tani, Massimiliano (UNSW Canberra); Zhu, Yu (University of Dundee); Wen, Xin (UNSW Canberra) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of China’s 2014 hukou reform - a major change allowing migrants living in small and medium-sized cities of less than 5 million people to apply for urban residence - on formal and informal borrowing at a time of rapid economic transformation. We find that the hukou policy change has predominantly increased natives’ access to finance, especially through informal sources, and for investments in housing. We also find that the policy affects households differently according to education level, with more educated households borrowing more to capitalise on rising asset prices driven by the ‘additional’ urban population created by the policy. |
| Keywords: | formal and informal debt, hukou reform, migrants |
| JEL: | D14 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17990 |
| By: | Tom Barkin |
| Abstract: | Talent availability has become critical for economic development. But we hear communities are struggling to meet that need because they lack housing. The key is more supply. To create that supply, communities need to own the problem, compete for developers, innovate in offering affordable land and lowering costs and engage with nontraditional partners. |
| Keywords: | business cycles; economic growth; inflation; monetary policy; housing |
| Date: | 2023–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:r00034:101233 |
| By: | Adriana Kugler |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:101334 |
| By: | Chowdhury, Shyamal K.; Puente-Beccar, Manuela; Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah; Schneider, Sebastian O.; Sutter, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We investigate how strongly the local environment beyond the family can contribute to understanding the formation of children's economic preferences. Building on precise geolocation data for around 6000 children, we use fixed effects, spatial autoregressive models and Kriging to capture the relation between the local environment and children's preferences. The spatial models explain a considerable part of so far unexplained variation in preferences. Moreover, the "spatial stability" of preferences exceeds the village level. Our results highlight the importance of the local environment for the formation of children's preferences, which we quantify to be as large as that of parental preferences. |
| Keywords: | skill formation, spatial models, kriging, local environment, patience, risk attitudes, prosociality, experiments with children, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | D01 C21 C99 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:321893 |
| By: | Jonathan Vogel; Andreas Kostøl; Sigurd Galaasen; Joan Monrà s |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of immigration on native labor-market outcomes? An extensive literature identifies the differential impact of immigration on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant labor (supply exposure). But immigrants consume in addition to producing output. Despite this, no literature identifies the impact on natives employed in jobs that are more exposed to immigrant consumption (demand exposure). We study native labor-market effects of supply and demand exposures to immigration. Theoretically, we formalize both measures of exposure and solve for their effects on native wages. Empirically, we combine employer-employee data with a newly collected dataset covering electronic payments for the universe of residents in Norway to measure supply and demand exposures of all native workers to immigration induced by EU expansions in 2004 and 2007. We find large, positive, and persistent effects of demand exposure to EU expansion on native worker income. |
| Keywords: | immigration |
| JEL: | J2 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1496 |
| By: | Acero, Juan A.; Sinh, Vivek K.; Rubinyi, Steven Louis |
| Abstract: | Urban areas accumulate heat, developing distinct urban climates that differ from the regional climate, leading to elevated mean air temperatures within cities. In tropical climates, such as Bangkok, this urban heat can contribute to high levels of heat stress. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variation of air temperature in the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) using dynamic climate modeling (WRF, v4.2). The analysis focuses on three distinct cli-matic periods: the cool and dry season (November–February), the hot and dry season (March–May), and the wet monsoon season (June–October). Results indicate that during sunrise in the cool and dry season, urban temperatures can be up to 6.4°C higher than those in surrounding rural areas. The highest temperature differences (>4°C) occur at night during this season, with over 50% of BMA’s urban area and population experiencing sustained exposure to these ele-vated temperatures. In contrast, the smallest temperature differences occur in the hot and dry season, despite it being the hottest overall, due to low soil moisture limiting rural cooling. Un-der specific conditions, an urban cool island (Turban |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11158 |
| By: | Lemos, Sara (University of Leicester) |
| Abstract: | No empirical evidence has ever been reported that the large inflow of accession immigrants – following the 2004 expansion of the European Union – led to a fall in wages or employment, or a rise in unemployment in the UK between 2004 and 2006. This immigration shock was unexpectedly larger and faster – as well as more concentrated into areas and occupations – than anticipated, seemingly more akin to an exogenous supply shock than most immigration shocks. Exploiting rich but underused individual level data from the Lifetime Labour Market Database (LLMDB) we estimate the effect of this immigration shock on wages, employment and unemployment of natives and previously existing immigrants in the UK. We confirm once again the finding of little evidence that the inflow of accession immigrants led to a fall in wages, a fall in employment, or a rise in unemployment of natives in the UK between 2004 and 2006. However, we uncover, for the first time, novel evidence of adverse employment and unemployment effects for low paid existing immigrants as a result of the accession immigration inflow. This is more severe for low paid immigrants and young low paid immigrants as well as for long term unemployed immigrants. |
| Keywords: | wages, employment, immigration, Central and Eastern Europe, UK |
| JEL: | J22 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18000 |
| By: | Tom Barkin |
| Abstract: | In the last few years, we’ve come across a number of small towns that appear to be turning things around — that have gone from losing residents to growing. The places that have started growing are mostly exurbs or near natural or well-crafted amenities. They’re building worker housing, investing in skill-building, and supporting workers’ whole-life needs. Now-growing counties didn’t begin their growth journeys in 2020. Their momentum started earlier. In time, with the right conditions, momentum starts showing up in the data. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; Small Town and Rural Communities; rural housing; rural workforce and education |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:r00034:101221 |
| By: | Blesse, Sebastian; Buhlmann, Florian; Heil, Philipp; Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| Abstract: | We study firm responses to local policies through a survey experiment, providing randomized information on the competitiveness of business tax rates and highway access in their headquarters' municipality. Firms often misperceive local policy competitiveness, especially for tax rates. Investment decisions respond asymmetrically to tax competitiveness. Positive tax rank information reduces investment intentions in neighboring municipalities. Compared to this, negative tax news increase relocation plans. However, most firms receiving bad news plan to continue investing in their headquarters' municipality, indicating home bias. These effects are strongest for mobile firms and corporations. Negative infrastructure news lower location satisfaction but do not influence investment. |
| Keywords: | tax competition, infrastructure, firm location, survey experiment |
| JEL: | H25 H32 H71 H72 H73 L21 R38 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:319894 |
| By: | Basco, Sergi; Roses, Joan R. |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of pandemics is commonly studied using theoretical models that assume constant returns to scale and no factor movements. This article argues that a new economic geography model with increasing returns to scale and capital mobility better explains the effects of pandemics in modern economies. Our model predicts that pandemics shape where investments are made, leading to long-term impacts on economic development. To test this, we examine the consequences of the Great Influenza Pandemic on credit allocation and structural transformation in Spain from 1915 to 1929. Our research shows that credit growth was lower in regions with high mortality. Quantitatively, a one standard deviation increase in flu-driven mortality decreases credit (per capita) by 13.6%. We also document that this flu-driven reallocation of credit resulted in an increase in relative urban GDP in low mortality rate regions. A one standard deviation increase in flu-driven credit raises relative urban GDP by 9.5%. |
| Keywords: | pandemics; capital mobility; economic geography; structural change |
| JEL: | E32 N10 N30 N90 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128853 |
| By: | Nogueira, Lauro; Rodrigues, Fábio Lúcio; Santos de Farias Souza, Wallace Patrick; de Araújo, Jevuks Matheus |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to investigate how water scarcity and periods of drought can affect firearm homicide rates in the Brazilian semi-arid region between 2002 and 2020. To this end, the methodology of inference in counterfactual distributions proposed by Chernozhukov, Fernández-Val and Melly (2013) was employed. The main findings indicate that periods of severe drought have a significant impact on homicide rates in the semi-arid region. These effects are more pronounced when associated with factors such as the presence of rural municipalities and the migration process. In other words, there is strong evidence that drought in the hinterlands/countryside contributes to the increase in crime rates in both urban and rural municipalities. Additionally, the decomposition of the results revealed that periods of extreme drought, coupled with other unfavorable factors, act as triggers for the increase in homicide rates in the Brazilian semi-arid region, significantly exacerbating conditions of vulnerability during these adverse climatic shocks. |
| Keywords: | Water Scarcity; Drought; Homicide Rate; Brazilian Semiarid. |
| JEL: | I3 J1 R1 |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125285 |
| By: | Kitamura, Shuhei; Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter |
| Abstract: | The location of cities is linked to access to trade, but security also matters, in particular for capitals. Here we document this phenomenon, and explore its implications, in the context of Europe’s Great Power era. First we show that Great Power battles tend to occur in shortest-distance corridors between belligerent powers’ capitals, except where those corridors are intercepted by seas, mountains, and marshes. Then we show that capitals locate closer to each other when they have more of these types of geography between them. Finally, we show that city pairs are less likely to belong to the same state if they have more of this geography between them, allowing us to use geography to predict the territorial size and shape of Europe’s Great Powers. In sum, our results suggest that terrain which slows down military incursions makes capitals safer, allowing them to locate closer to each other; given all capitals’ locations, the surrounding geography then shapes the associated state territories. |
| Date: | 2025–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zj5gw_v1 |
| By: | Diego Buitrago-Mora (Department of Urbanism, TU Delft.); Anna Matas (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between the expansion of the rail system in the Madrid metropolitan area and patterns of population redistribution between 1998 and 2020. We focus on two major Metro expansion phases, which together account for approximately 40% of the current network. To capture the effects of improved infrastructure, we construct an accessibility measure based on the increase in job opportunities resulting from reductions in travel time. To address potential endogeneity in this key variable, we propose an instrument based on subsoil permeability, which serves as a novel proxy for tunneling feasibility. We estimate an elasticity of population with respect to travel time of 0.7, which remains stable across varying magnitudes of travel time reductions. The effect is stronger for individuals aged 40 to 59 and for the Spanish-born population. |
| Keywords: | Accessibility, population patterns, suburbanization, rail expansion. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2506 |
| By: | Reshetov, Denis |
| Abstract: | One-on-one tutoring by adults is among the most effective educational interventions, yet it remains prohibitively costly to scale. Peer tutoring offers a promising alternative, with substantial evidence supporting its efficacy for both tutors and tutees, but implementing it often requires additional time, planning, and teacher training—barriers that limit adoption. This paper presents Slonig (https://slonig.org), a lightweight, open-source peer tutoring app designed to overcome these challenges by ensuring proper student matching, guiding tutor behavior with a built-in algorithm, and controlling quality through structured feedback and game theory mechanisms. Slonig enables scalable, same-age peer tutoring with minimal teacher oversight, no lesson preparation, and integrated training for student tutors. Pilot classroom implementations with peer-led onboarding demonstrated rapid adoption and usability across age groups. While further research is needed to quantify learning gains, these early results suggest that peer tutoring, when supported by well-designed software, can serve as an effective and scalable instructional method even in resource-constrained settings. |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:me9ku_v1 |
| By: | Yankova Dima; Abbasiharofteh Milad |
| Abstract: | European innovation policy combines place-based and spatially blind instruments that operate under distinct logics. Building synergies between them requires not only regulatory alignment, but a better understanding of how economic actors interact across policy levels. This study examines how companies’ participation in the European Framework Programmes (FP) influences their propensity to engage in regional R&D partnerships, supported by Cohesion Policy. We analyse longitudinal data on Valencian firms using inferential network analysis (i.e., Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models). Results indicate that FP beneficiaries are more active in regional tie formation than non-FP firms, especially when academic intermediaries are involved. Yet, they also tend to collaborate with each other, limiting opportunities for knowledge diffusion among firms that do not benefit from the international collaboration premium. |
| Keywords: | rR&D network, innovation policy, intermediaries, TERGM |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2520 |
| By: | Nogueira, Lauro; Rebouças de Souza, Nathanael Andray; Rodrigues, Fábio Lúcio; Gomes de Souza, Helson |
| Abstract: | This study investigated the impacts of water scarcity and/or periods of extreme drought on homicide rates in Brazilian municipalities, particularly rural ones. Using a survey of 769, 774 data points that combined climate information, socioeconomic data of victims, homicide rates, and municipal socioeconomic variables as controls, between 2002 and 2020. The study also outlined a profile of homicide victims in rural municipalities for a deeper understanding of the issue. The results show that water scarcity and/or periods of extreme drought increase firearm homicide rates in rural municipalities of Brazil, with higher homicide rates in the region leading to greater observed effects. In summary, there are indications of a phenomenon of crime interiorization, especially in predominantly rural municipalities. |
| Keywords: | Violence in Rural Areas. Homicide Rates. Crime Interiorization. Rural Municipalities. |
| JEL: | I3 J1 R1 |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125310 |
| By: | Feuillade, Mylène (Paris School of Economics); Goux, Dominique (CREST-INSEE); Maurin, Eric (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article explores how an employee’s choice to work from home (WFH) influences his or her spouse’s outcomes. Drawing on the specific features of the French institutions, we show that a spouse’s switch to WFH leads to a sharp increase in the probability that his or her partner will also switch to WFH, as well as in the number of hours worked by the partner. These cross-effects are particularly strong on the better-paid partner within the couple (whether the man or the woman) who appears to condition his or her decision to work from home on that of his or her (less-paid) partner. The effects of WFH on the volume of hours worked are greatly underestimated when spillovers within couples are neglected. On the other hand, we detect no significant effect on partners’ commuting distance, nor on the type of urban unit they choose to live in. |
| Keywords: | hours worked, social interactions, work from home |
| JEL: | J22 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17997 |
| By: | Vincent P. Roberdel (Eindhoven University of Technology); Ioulia V. Ossokina (Eindhoven University of Technology); Jos van Ommeren (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Theo A. Arentze (Eindhoven University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence of the health benefits of a large-scale, nationwide programme of home energy-efficiency retrofits in the Netherlands, exploiting individual medicine use from insurers' records. We demonstrate that these home upgrades improve children's health, as evidenced by a 4% reduction in the use of respiratory medication. We also find suggestive health improvements for other vulnerable groups, such as the poor. |
| Keywords: | Health, Energy efficiency, Renovation, Children, Public housing |
| JEL: | I10 Q40 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250002 |
| By: | Laurie E. Paarlberg; Rebecca Nesbit; Su Young Choi; Ryan Moss |
| Abstract: | Are rural residents more likely to volunteer than those living in urban places? Although early sociological theory posited that rural residents were more likely to experience social bonds connecting them to their community, increasing their odds of volunteer engagement, empirical support is limited. Drawing upon the full population of rural and urban respondents to the United States Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) Volunteering Supplement (2002-2015), we found that rural respondents are more likely to report volunteering compared to urban respondents, although these differences are decreasing over time. Moreover, we found that propensities for rural and urban volunteerism vary based on differences in both individual and place-based characteristics; further, the size of these effects differ across rural and urban places. These findings have important implications for theory and empirical analysis. |
| Keywords: | Volunteer, rural, urban |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-42 |
| By: | Pridemore, William |
| Abstract: | The Criminologic Transition Model (CTM) provides an organizing framework for understanding how the nature of crime covaries with the character of social relations as societies develop. Societal evolution shifts the axes around which humans organize and interact, profoundly changing families, cities, nations, and weltanshauung. Technology progresses, there are revolutions in economic drivers, states increase control over citizens and commerce, and human rights mature. Families become smaller, adolescence is extended, population mobility increases, and people live longer. Surely victim, offender, and event characteristics – which in combination I label crime morphology – are part of these foundational transformations and thus follow systematic trajectories over time. I outline the need for and domain of CTM, describe its basic properties and theoretical lineage, define the elements and structure of the model, outline CTM’s general hypotheses, and summarize historical evidence that suggests centuries-long trajectories of specific victim, offender, and event characteristics during societal development. |
| Date: | 2025–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4ve65_v1 |
| By: | Michael Christl (University of Loyola); Aron Kiss (European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs); Wolfgang Nagl (Deggendorf Institute of Technology, Faculty of Applied Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines labour market matching in Austria from 2008 to 2024, focusing on the regional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using monthly administrative data, we estimate Beveridge curves and matching efficiency across federal states. Our results show that while COVID-19 temporarily disrupted labour market matching, mismatch unemployment returned to pre-pandemic levels relatively quickly. However, this national recovery masks persistent regional differences. Many industrial regions experienced structural declines in matching efficiency starting in 2014-2015. These findings highlight the need for regionally targeted labour market and training policies to address lasting disparities and support post-pandemic recovery. |
| Keywords: | Beveridge curve, Unemployment, Matching efficiency, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2025–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2025:i:708 |
| By: | Trevor J. Bakker; Stefanie DeLuca; Eric A. English; Jamie Fogel; Nathaniel Hendren; Daniel Herbst |
| Abstract: | We construct new population-level linked administrative data to study households' access to credit in the United States. These data reveal large differences in credit access by race, class, and hometown. By age 25, Black individuals, those who grew up in low-income families, and those who grew up in certain areas (including the Southeast and Appalachia) have significantly lower credit scores than other groups. Consistent with lower scores generating credit constraints, these individuals have smaller balances, more credit inquiries, higher credit card utilization rates, and greater use of alternative higher-cost forms of credit. Tests for alternative definitions of algorithmic bias in credit scores yield results in opposite directions. From a calibration perspective, group-level differences in credit scores understate differences in delinquency: conditional on a given credit score, Black individuals and those from low-income families fall delinquent at relatively higher rates. From a balance perspective, these groups receive lower credit scores even when comparing those with the same future repayment behavior. Addressing both of these biases and expanding credit access to groups with lower credit scores requires addressing group-level differences in delinquency rates. These delinquencies emerge soon after individuals access credit in their early twenties, often due to missed payments on credit cards, student loans, and other bills. Comprehensive measures of individuals' income profiles, income volatility, and observed wealth explain only a small portion of these repayment gaps. In contrast, we find that the large variation in repayment across hometowns mostly reflects the causal effect of childhood exposure to these places. Places that promote upward income mobility also promote repayment and expand credit access even conditional on income, suggesting that common place-level factors may drive behaviors in both credit and labor markets. We discuss suggestive evidence for several mechanisms that drive our results, including the role of social and cultural capital. We conclude that gaps in credit access by race, class, and hometown have roots in childhood environments. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-45 |
| By: | Jan van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Julie Moschion (University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of Australians who display high rates of early school-leaving, we compare the trajectories of respondents who left school at each incremental age between 14 and 17 with respondents who left at 18 years old or more, in terms of homelessness, incarceration, substance use and mental health issues. Leveraging recent methodological advances, we estimate a staggered difference-in-difference to: eliminate biases arising from reverse causality or unobserved time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity and account for heterogenous treatment effects across cohorts and time. Results indicate that leaving school before age 18 increases males’ likelihood of experiencing homeless, being incarcerated, using cannabis daily and illegal street drugs weekly several years after school-leaving. In contrast, for females the difference-in-difference strategy eliminates the correlations between school-leaving age and their outcomes, providing some support for a causal interpretation of our findings. To minimise concerns that gender specific time-varying unobserved heterogeneity may be driving our results, we also show that while the occurrence and timing of parental separation and other adverse behaviours coincide with early school-leaving, our results are robust to accounting for these. Taken together, our findings suggest that preventing early school-leaving can help disadvantaged youth break cycles of multi-dimensional disadvantage. |
| Date: | 2025–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250008 |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha; Mitrou, Francis |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal, nationally representative data from Australia, this study uncovers a previously undocumented pattern: in over half of cases where one household member reports weather-related home damage, their co-resident does not. This high rate of intra-household inconsistency is striking, particularly given that respondents are asked the same question within a similar timeframe, and that prior research has generally treated self-reported damage as exogenous to individual behaviour. Household fixed-effects models indicate that a range of factors, including individual health, life satisfaction, local socio-economic conditions, and cyclone exposure, are systematically associated with both the likelihood of reporting damage and intra-household inconsistencies. Individuals in better health, with higher life satisfaction, or residing in more advantaged areas are less likely to report damage—whether consistently or inconsistently—relative to their household member. Furthermore, replacing self-reported damage with a more objective measure substantially attenuates the observed associations between damage and individual health and life satisfaction. Taken together, these findings challenge the common assumption of exogeneity in self-reported weather-related home damage and underscore the risk of biased inference if endogeneity is not adequately addressed. |
| Keywords: | Measurement Errors; Survey Misreporting; Natural Disasters; Cyclones; Housing |
| JEL: | C18 Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125144 |
| By: | DI PIETRO Giorgio (European Commission - JRC); KARPINSKI Zbigniew (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Recent PISA 2022 results show that a relatively large proportion of EU students underachieve in mathematics. While this outcome has been partially driven by Covid-19, one should not forget that the decline in student performance was already under way before the pandemic. Evidence indicates that poor mathematics skills can have a detrimental impact on people’s life, leading to financial problems, academic struggles and professional setbacks. This situation underscores the urgent need for Member States to invest in programmes aimed at improving students’ mathematics achievement. In an attempt to assist Member States in identifying effective programmes to enhance students’ mathematics competences, this report synthetises relevant literature and adds some original research work. A rapid umbrella review is carried out to summarise evidence on what policies work best and which do not. Furthermore, PISA 2022 data are used to investigate the impact of digital resources on mathematics test scores. The findings from these two exercises concur in questioning the role of digital technologies in raising students’ performance in mathematics. Existing review studies do not consistently find technology-aided instruction to be among the best policies. Similarly, our analysis of PISA data does not show a positive association between the use of digital resources in mathematics classes and mathematics test scores. However, the empirical estimates suggest that students perform better in mathematics in those schools offering their teachers professional development in the area of integrating digital resources into mathematics instruction. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140539 |
| By: | Davide Consoli; Francesco Lelli; FSandro Montresor; Francois Perruchas; Francesco Rentocchini |
| Abstract: | Given the crucial role of Venture Capital (VC) in financing the green transition, and its uneven geographical distribution, we examine how the proximity of VC investors to green start-ups influences the success of their deals. Considering the intrinsically higher risk profile of start-ups in the greensector, we maintain that their spatial proximity to VC investors will have a larger effect here than in other sectors. Furthermore, considering recent advancements in the digitalization of VC, we also argue that a digital kind of proximity between investors and green investees in accessing digital technologies (platforms) could matter for that, by also reducing the binding effect of spatial proximity on the success of VC green deals. Using data from Dealroom, and combining them with the SpeedTest open dataset by Ookla, we test for these arguments with respect to a large sample of about 12, 000 green start-ups, originally identified by combining multiple methods (text scraping, topic modelling, and machine learning), located in 27 EU (+3) countries from 2000 to 2020. Econometric estimates at the level of realised vs. potential VC green deals confirm that spatial proximity is more relevant for green than for non-green start-ups. The new quasi- dyadic indicator of digital proximity that we propose does also significantly and positively correlates with the actual occurrence of green deals, and negatively moderate the effect of spatial proximity, supporting our argument of a substitution relationship between the two. Policy implications are drawn accordingly. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2521 |
| By: | Yeonha Jung; Gedeon Lim; Sangyoon Park |
| Abstract: | This study examines the economic legacy of civilian killings during the Korean War, which disproportionately targeted local elites, educated individuals, and their families. For identification, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the spatial distribution of killings driven by unanticipated UN military operations. Evidence suggests that local exposure to civilian killings had a persistently negative impact on contemporary development. As a key mechanism, we find that civilian killings led to a relative decline in structural transformation, potentially due to reduced investments in human capital. |
| Keywords: | civilian killings, Korean War, long-run development, structural transformation |
| JEL: | D74 O14 N15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11974 |
| By: | Javed, Umair; Najmi, Muhammad Shahwali; Haroon, Muhammad Hasaan; Ahmed, Hiba |
| Abstract: | Old Lahore traditional markets play a prime place in the city's identity by reflecting the practices and customs over generations. The markets represent far more than a commercial center, since they embody the dynamic interaction of cultural values and historical practice. As Geertz would write, "markets are webs of economic relationships" and are also the depositories of social and cultural values (Geertz). The operations of these markets are characterized by their crude trading practices, the nature of products sold, and the personalized relationships between traders and customers, which have remained relatively unchanged with time. This research is interdisciplinary, combining sociology, anthropology, history, heritage, and economics to analyze the relationship between heritage conservation efforts and the continuity of traditional market practices. |
| Keywords: | Traditional Markets Heritage Conservation Urban Preservation Resistance to Conservation Walled City of Lahore Socio-economic Resilience Informal Economies Walled City of Lahore Authority (WCLA) Old Lahore Azam Market Akbari Mandi Kashmiri Gate Lohari Gate Union Governance Punjab Heritage Bazaar Economy (Clifford Geertz) Political Economy of Bazaars (Keshavarzian) Informal Credit Networks Clientelization Self-regulation Mechanisms Cultural Continuity Heritage vs. Livelihood Conservation-led Displacement Urban Modernization |
| JEL: | Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125337 |
| By: | Ketter, Laura (University of Queensland); Morris, Todd (University of Queensland); Yu, Lizi (University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents a robust link between COVID-19 lockdowns and the uptake and persistence of working from home (WFH) practices. Exploiting rich longitudinal data, we use a difference-in-differences strategy to compare office workers in three heavily locked-down Australian states to similar workers in less affected states. Locked-down workers sustain 43% higher WFH levels through 2023 — 0.5 days per week — with a monotonic dose–response relationship. Persistence is driven by adjustments on both sides of the labor market: employers downsize office space and open remote/hybrid positions, while employees relocate away from city centers and invest in home offices and technology. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, persistence, WFH, work from home, lockdowns, habit formation |
| JEL: | I18 J22 M54 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17975 |
| By: | Gibbs, Chloe (University of Notre Dame); Wikle, Jocelyn (Brigham Young University); Wilson, Riley (Brigham Young University) |
| Abstract: | We leverage pronounced changes in the availability of public schooling for young children---through duration expansions to the kindergarten day---to better understand how an implicit childcare subsidy affects mothers and families. Exploiting full-day kindergarten variation across place and time from 1992 through 2022 and novel data on state-level policy changes, combined with a comparison of children of typical kindergarten age to older children, we measure effects on parental labor supply and family childcare expenses. Results suggest that families are responsive to these shifts. Full-day kindergarten expansions were responsible for as much as 24 percent of the growth in employment of mothers with kindergarten-aged children in this time frame. |
| Keywords: | maternal labor supply, kindergarten, public schooling |
| JEL: | H75 I28 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17969 |
| By: | Friberg, Richard (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics); Halseth, Emil M. S. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Steen, Frode (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Ulsaker, Simen A. (Faculty of Social Sciences, OsloMet) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how consumer price knowledge affects shopping behavior and the prices consumers pay in grocery markets. We combine survey-based price recall data from over 2000 Norwegian households — yielding over 70 000 price recalls across two grocery chains and 24 products—with 18 months of of linked individual-level transaction histories. Better-informed consumers—those who recall prices more accurately—pay lower prices by timing purchases to coincide with sales. A 10 percentage point increase in price knowledge (approximately the interquartile range) is associated with a 1:3 percentage point reduction in prices paid. Our results provide direct support for the central mechanism in Varian’s (1980) model of sales: that informed consumers pay lower prices by exploiting temporary discounts. We also find that consumers who are more active in seeking information about prices have higher price knowledge. Taken together, and with the caveat that we are only considering consumer responses here, our results suggest that policies or tools that help consumers learn about prices may be effective in enhancing competition. Our findings also speak to a marketing literature that seeks to measure and explain consumer price knowledge. By linking survey data to actual shopping behavior, we contribute to this literature by demonstrating that shopping behavior and attitudes are stronger predictors of price knowledge than demographic characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Price Knowledge; Price learning effort; Price Competition; Sales Utilization; Search costs |
| JEL: | D83 L10 L66 |
| Date: | 2025–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_015 |
| By: | Antonio Di Paolo; Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell; Ramon Caminal |
| Abstract: | We present new evidence on the impact of a reform that introduced Catalan-Spanish bilingual education in Catalonia on identity formation. Specifically, we revisit the findings of Clots-Figueras and Masella (2013, The Economic Journal) by examining how exposure to Catalan as medium of instruction affects identity and political preferences. To do so, we use more recent data from repeated cross-sections and multiple alternative sources. Furthermore, we explore an overlooked dimension of identity: self-identification language. At the aggregate level, we find a small but negative effect of bilingual education on the likelihood of identifying as exclusively Catalan. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks and falsification tests. However, they differ significantly from those of Clots-Figueras and Masella. Our replication of their results reveals a lack of robustness, primarily due to their definitions of identity, as well as to other aspects of their model specification. Our analysis of heterogeneous effects shows that the small negative impact of the reform on identifying as "only Catalan" is entirely driven by individuals from non-Catalan backgrounds, whether in terms of native language or parental origins. For this group, exposure to bilingual education also reduces the likelihood of adopting Catalan as the language of self-identification and support for the independence of Catalonia. These findings suggest that the language-in-education reform might have triggered a backlash effect. |
| Keywords: | language, political preferences, identity |
| JEL: | I28 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1495 |
| By: | Hermansen, Are Skeie; Madsen, Aleksander Å. (University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | Childhood immigrants face developmental constraints related to the acquisition of skills required to succeed in advanced economies. We study how age at arrival shapes earnings potential, worker productivity, and labor market sorting. Drawing on administrative data from Norway, we employ a sibling comparison design to identify the effects of age at arrival on a broad set of adult labor market outcomes. Our analysis shows that later arrival has progressively negative effects across the earnings distribution—although concentrated among low earners; increases sorting into physically demanding occupations with lower communicative, socioemotional, and math–logic skill requirements; reduces full-time work; and lowers access to high-paying employers. A formal decomposition indicates that differences in educational qualifications, work hours, and sorting into math–logic intensive occupations are key mediators of the age-at-arrival effect on earnings. Together, these findings document how immigration at later developmental stages has lasting consequences for skill specialization and economic assimilation. For childhood immigrants, even modest delays in country-specific human capital acquisition can lead to misalignment between their skills and the productivity demands and reward structures of knowledge-intensive labor markets. |
| Date: | 2025–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mg8wu_v1 |
| By: | Yunming Hui (University of Amsterdam); Inez Maria Zwetsloot (University of Amsterdam); Simon Trimborn (University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Stevan Rudinac (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Social network platforms like Reddit are increasingly impacting real-world economics. Meme stocks are a recent phenomena where price movements are driven by retail investors organising themselves via social networks. To study the impact of social networks on meme stocks, the first step is to analyse these networks. Going forward, predicting meme stocks' returns would require to predict dynamic interactions first. This is different from conventional link prediction, frequently applied in e.g. recommendation systems. For this task, it is essential to predict more complex interaction dynamics, such as the exact timing and interaction types like loops. These are crucial for linking the network to meme stock price movements. Dynamic graph embedding (DGE) has recently emerged as a promising approach for modeling dynamic graph-structured data. However, current negative sampling strategies, an important component of DGE, are designed for conventional dynamic link prediction and do not capture the specific patterns present in meme stock-related social networks. This limits the training and evaluation of DGE models in analysing such social networks. To overcome this drawback, we propose novel negative sampling strategies based on the analysis of real meme stock-related social networks and financial knowledge. Our experiments show that the proposed negative sampling strategy can better evaluate and train DGE models targeted at meme stock-related social networks compared to existing baselines. |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250003 |
| By: | Gibbs, Michael (University of Chicago); Mengel, Friederike (University of Essex); Siemroth, Christoph (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | Using data from over 28, 000 innovators within a firm, we study how network position affects innovation, measured by the quality of ideas proposed in a formal suggestion system. Network degree is associated with higher quality ideas. Bridging across structural holes is negatively related to idea quality in the short run, conditional on degree, but has positive effects in the medium run. Bridging also has positive and persisting effects on the quality of colleagues’ ideas, suggesting a positive externality from ‘brokers.’ Network size is not related to idea quality, after controlling for degree and bridging. Compared to working from the office, remote work leads to lower average network degree and bridging. This weakening of networks may explain the reduced quality of innovation during remote work found in prior literature. |
| Keywords: | working from home, network centrality, structural holes, innovation, networks, hybrid work |
| JEL: | D7 D8 O3 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17966 |
| By: | Agnello, Luca; Castro, Vítor; Sousa, Ricardo M.; Hammoudeh, Shawkat |
| Abstract: | Using a rich high-frequency and a cross-country panel of daily sovereign CDS spreads, we employ local projections to estimate the dynamic response of sovereign risk to the occurrence of natural disasters. We find that climatological and, to a lesser extent, hydrological events have a small and short-lived effect on the sovereign CDS spreads. We also explore whether anticipatory effects arise before a disaster unfolds, and confirm that the expectations of imminent disasters do not substantially affect CDS pricing. On the other hand, we show that the sovereign risk is dominated by regional and global financial spillovers, thus reflecting the systemic nature of the sovereign credit markets. Our results also suggest that governments may benefit from developing disaster-specific risk reduction and fiscal resilience strategies, as well as early-warning models that integrate disaster forecasting into risk monitoring frameworks. Sovereigns’ coordination and risk-pooling mechanisms may also be essential in times of regional calamities. Moreover, portfolio hedging strategies should include short-term protective positions in the vulnerable sovereigns during known disaster seasons. Disaster-integrated ESG strategies could also enhance the portfolio resilience. |
| Keywords: | expectations; natural disasters; credit default swaps; sovereign risk; local projections; spillovers |
| JEL: | Q54 H30 H60 |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128535 |
| By: | Eleonora Trappolini (Sapienza Università di Roma); Kim Wooseong (Karolinska Institute, Sweden); Giammarco Alderotti (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Universita' di Firenze) |
| Abstract: | In the context of global population ageing, migrants are increasingly essential to sustaining labour forces across high-income countries. This study investigates the dynamics of overqualification (i.e., when workers have higher qualifications than their job requires) and job satisfaction among migrants, taking Italy - a country with one of the world's oldest populations and a highly segmented labour market - as a case study. We pursue three main goals: (1) to examine the risk of overqualification by migrant background, (2) to analyse how overqualification relates to job satisfaction by migrant status, and (3) to test whether the relationship between the two differs among older natives and migrants. We pay particular attention to migrants'age at arrival - a key factor that can profoundly shape labour market experiences through such mechanisms as educational pathways and integration trajectories. The results show that migrants, especially those who arrived in Italy as adults, face a significantly higher risk of overqualification than natives. However, the negative association between overqualification and job satisfaction is weaker among this group, and particularly among older adult migrants. These findings suggest the emergence of an 'overqualification/job satisfaction paradox', whereby those most exposed to job mismatch appear less affected by its negative consequences. This may be driven by psychological mechanisms- such as adaptation to lower expectations - as well as by selection processes, whereby migrants with more negative experiences may have already exited the host labour market. |
| Keywords: | overqualification; job satisfaction, migrants, Italy |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J28 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2025_07 |
| By: | Ramon Caminal |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a theoretical framework for stuyding language choices in cultural and media markets. From a positive point of view, the analysis emphasizes that the share of consumption in the minority language in a specific product category crucially depends on the availability of content with a local focus (targetting local consumers). We argue that such a prediction can help rationalize the large dispersion in the presence of the minority language across different product categories widely observed. In the case of Catalonia, we document that the percentage of consumption in the minority language (Catalan) provided by private firms is quite large for theater, negligible for cinema and television, and intermediate for books and radio. Differences in the relative weight of content with a local focus can account for a substantial portion of this dispersion. From a normative point of view, we show that market forces tend to provide too few products in the minority language relative to the social optimum (insufficient linguistic diversity), even when products with a local focus abound. Public policies fostering local content and the use of the minority language are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | language, content, business stealing, better preference matching |
| JEL: | D43 L13 L82 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1485 |
| By: | Baraldi, Anna Laura; Cantabene, Claudia; de Iudicibus, Alessandro; Fosco, Giovanni; iacopo, Grassi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the fiscal consequences of EU-funded waste management projects on local taxation in Italian municipalities. Using a difference-in-differences approach on panel data from 2007 to 2023, we find that municipalities receiving EU cohesion funds experienced a significant increase in per-capita waste taxes, driven by rising service costs. A decomposition of these costs reveals that while separate waste collection expanded — in line with sustainability goals — the associated logistical and operational expenses increased sharply. Conversely, although the vol- ume of unsorted waste declined, disposal costs rose, likely due to lower quality and more complex treatment requirements. To assess whether cost increases reflected inefficiency or technological progress, we estimate total factor productivity changes via a non-parametric Malmquist index. The results indicate substantial productivity gains in sorted waste management, mostly from technological advancement, but also suggest transitional inefficiencies. Our findings highlight the need for more integrated investment strategies to balance environmental goals with fiscal sustainability. |
| Keywords: | U Cohesion Policy, Waste Management, Local Public Finance, En- vironmental Taxation, Service Costs, Efficiency and Productivity |
| JEL: | H23 H72 Q58 R53 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125150 |
| By: | Juergen Jung (Department of Economics, Towson University); Vinish Shrestha (Department of Economics, Towson University) |
| Abstract: | Maternal and infant health outcomes in the American South lag behind those in other U.S. regions. This study estimates the causal impact of Medicaid expansion to 138 percent of the Federal Poverty Level on maternal and infant health outcomes, using county-level data from the National Vital Statistics System (2010--2017). We employ a difference-in-differences design, comparing counties in expansion and non-expansion states, and use inverse propensity score weighting to improve covariate balance. To flexibly adjust for baseline differences, we extend the analysis with a machine learning–based Doubly Robust DiD estimator. Our findings show that Medicaid expansion significantly reduced pregnancy-associated mortality among non-Hispanic Black mothers, primarily by lowering pregnancy-related deaths, with no effect on incidental causes. No significant impact is found for non-Hispanic White mothers. While infant mortality rates remained unchanged for both groups, the expansion modestly improved birthweight outcomes among Black infants. These results highlight the potential of Medicaid expansion to reduce racial disparities in maternal and infant health in the American South. |
| Keywords: | The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), Infant Health Outcomes, American South, Health Inequality. |
| JEL: | M51 J71 J62 J63 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2025-01 |
| By: | Yixuan Huang; Kailai Wang; Jian Shi |
| Abstract: | The transition to hydrogen powered transportation requires regionally tailored yet scalable infrastructure planning. This study presents the first Texas specific, multi-period mixed integer optimization model for hydrogen transportation from 2025 to 2050, addressing challenges in infrastructure phasing, asset coordination, and multimodal logistics. The framework introduces three innovations: (1) phased deployment with delayed investment constraints, (2) dynamic modeling of fleet aging and replacement, and (3) a clustering-based hub structure enabling adaptive two-stage hydrogen delivery. Simulations show pipeline deployment supports up to 94.8% of hydrogen flow by 2050 under high demand, reducing transport costs by 23% compared to vehicle-based systems. However, one-year construction delays reduce pipeline coverage by over 60%, shifting reliance to costlier road transport. While the study focuses on Texas, its modular design and adaptable inputs apply to other regions. It provides a tool for policy makers and stakeholders to manage hydrogen transitions under logistical and economic constraints. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.13918 |
| By: | Lu, Hongyu; Fan, Huiying; Liu, Haobing; Liu, Ziming; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | This study introduces MOVES-Matrix 4.0, an innovative high-performance implementation of MOVES 4.0.1 that generates exactly same energy and emission rate results as the Environmental Protection Agency’s latest version of MOVES 4.0.1, but allows users to deploy the MOVES model in complex and dynamic analyses. The team utilized the same conceptual design used in MOVES-Matrix 2014 and MOVES-Matrix 3.0, and updated the configurations on PACE supercomputing clusters to account for the programming changes with respect to MOVES databases (e.g., migration to MariaDB) and MOVES’ algorithm updates since MOVES2014b (e.g., extended VSP/STP parameters). The MOVES-Matrix 4.0 system develops sub-matrices of energy and emission rates by executing 181, 818 MOVES runs to generate more than 5.8 trillion energy and emission rates in thepopulated matrix for a single modeling region (represented by a unique combination of fuel specification regime and inspection and maintenance program). Performance tests demonstrate that MOVES-Matrix 4.0 produces the exact same results as MOVES4 (insignificant internal rounding errors that are less than 0.0005%). In modeling applications, generating emission rates from MOVES-Matrix is 200 times faster than running a MOVES instance. MOVES-Matrix 4.0 is ready to be used for large-scale, dynamic transportation network analyses and emissions modeling, given its open-source nature, and its compatibility with various scripting languages. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, MOVES 4.0, energy use and emission modeling, federal regulatory modeling |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0xg905w5 |
| By: | Bhargava, Pranay |
| Abstract: | In India, entrepreneurship is often reduced to skilling combined with nano-finance. Public programs largely wash their hands after budgeting for short-term training, linking to microfinance, and creating shared infrastructure — all designed to serve large numbers of mass entrepreneurs at subsistence levels. This paper takes a 180-degree sharp reversal of that approach. It argues that by ignoring the more aspirational, growth-ready entrepreneurs — those sitting at the top of the local entrepreneurial networks — current policies are actually promoting enterprises sub-optimally, and failing to unlock the real potential of India’s unincorporated sector. The paper proposes an Acceleration Model focused on identifying and backing Barefoot Unicorns — the high-aspiration HWEs and αHWEs strategically positioned at the top of local entrepreneurial networks — through adaptive incubation, behavioral conditioning, flexible finance (revenue-based financing, micro-equity), and network-driven scale, aligned to the unpredictable, non-linear journey toward Product–Market Fit (PMF). Even a modest shift could unlock 18 crore new jobs. This paper offers a strategic blueprint for governments, catalysts, CSR, incubators, investors, lenders, and DPI ecosystem actors to move beyond outcome-poor schemes towards high-leverage, ROI-maximizing entrepreneurship models. |
| Keywords: | MSME policy India; MSME job creation; Revenue-based financing; Rural entrepreneurship; Micro enterprises; MSME cluster development; High-growth entrepreneurship; MSME incubation; Mass entrepreneurship vs high-growth entrepreneurship; Entrepreneurial ecosystem design; Barefoot Unicorns; Hired Worker Enterprises (HWE); Micro-equity; Flexible Finance; Incubator micro enterprises; |
| JEL: | G23 I38 J21 L26 M13 O12 O17 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125170 |
| By: | Rebecca Nesbit; Laurie E. Paarlberg; Suyeon Jo |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the complex interactions between local and national economic contexts and volunteering behavior. We examine three dimensions of local economic context—economic disadvantage (e.g., the percentage of families living in poverty), income inequality, and economic growth (e.g., the change in median household income) and the impact of a national/global economic jolt—the Great Recession. Analysis of data from the Current Population Survey’s (CPS) Volunteering Supplement (2002-2015) reveals. Individuals who live in places characterized by economic disadvantage and economic inequality are less likely to volunteer than individuals in more advantaged, equitable communities. The recession had a dampening effect on volunteering overall, but it had the largest dampening effect on individual volunteering in communities with above average rates of income equality and higher rates of economic growth. While individuals living in rural communities were more likely to volunteer than their urban counterparts before the recession, rural/urban differences disappear after the recession. |
| Keywords: | volunteering, community context, economic conditions, rurality |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-41 |
| By: | Long, Xianling; Huang, Kaixing; Hou, Hao |
| Abstract: | A persistent puzzle in developing economies is why rural households remain in low-productivity agricultural sectors despite the substantial income gaps with non-agricultural opportunities. While existing studies attribute this gap to market frictions, institutional barriers, and differences in human capital, this paper shifts the focus to household-level welfare trade-offs, specifically, the non-pecuniary welfare losses borne by family members left behind when working-age individuals migrate. We develop a theoretical framework to show how such hidden costs affect labor reallocation and how they can be quantified empirically. Leveraging China's Grain for Green (GFG) Program--a nationwide conservation policy that induced farmland retirement in exchange for subsidies, we show that the policy led to significant increases in migration and non-agricultural labor, especially among women and younger individuals. Using revealed preference logic, we estimate that hidden migration costs amount to 10.5--12.6% of total household income for policy-induced migrants. Drawing on rich survey data, we trace these costs to two key sources: disruptions to children's education and reduced caregiving capacity for elderly household members. These findings highlight the need for policies that ease the burden of migrating with dependents, such as removing restrictions on education and healthcare access in destination areas. |
| Keywords: | Rural-urban migration, Hidden migration cost, Grain for Green Program |
| JEL: | I31 O13 R14 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125162 |
| By: | Witte, Marc J. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Roth, Johanna (Sciences Po); Hardy, Morgan (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Meyer, Christian Johannes (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We present findings from an at-scale randomized trial of a government program providing public employment services in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with up-to-date vacancy information. Before the program, women with relatively less education searched more narrowly with worse labor market outcomes than the rest of our representative sample of relevant job seekers. These women also have lower direct intervention take-up than the rest of the sample. However, only these women significantly increase applications, receive more offers, shift from household enterprise work to wage employment, and experience higher earnings in response to the intervention. These employment impacts are larger than can be explained by vacancies directly curated through the intervention. Instead, these women adjust search behavior, expectations, and employment aspirations more broadly. Notably, offers come through friends and family networks, their modal baseline search method, underscoring the potential role of social networks in disseminating employment information to the most marginalized job seekers. |
| Keywords: | marginalized job seekers, labor market frictions, public employment services, randomized controlled trial (RCT) |
| JEL: | J08 J16 J64 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18005 |
| By: | Hirao, Tomotaka (Setsunan University) |
| Abstract: | As a result of the Programme for International Student Assessment in 2003 which revealed an extreme drop in Japan’s international education rank, various research on factors affecting students’ academic performance and motivation for learning has been conducted in Japan. However, research on the determinants of students’ favorite subjects is less-advanced, although the cognitive and non-cognitive skills acquired by studying favorite subjects has potential effects that may be maintained and expanded throughout the entirety of students’ lives. Therefore, using newly available data from the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, this pilot study analyzes the relationship between the teaching methods used by teachers and students’ favorite subjects with particular reference to mathematics and English. Empirical result show that the relationship between educational methods and the enjoyment of studying mathematics and English may not be strong. In addition, this study also confirmed that while some approaches are effective regardless of grade, the efficacy of other approaches changes by grade. A strategic placement of education methods employed by teachers is imperative in order to cultivate students’ interest in mathematics and English. |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bjyxw_v1 |
| By: | Lippens, Louis (Ghent University); Neyt, Brecht; Baert, Stijn |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, academics worldwide have conducted experiments with fictitious job applications to measure discrimination in hiring. This discrimination leads to underutilization of labor market potential and higher unemployment rates for individuals from vulnerable groups. Collectively, the insights from the published research suggest that three groups face more discrimination than ethnic minorities: people with disabilities, less physically attractive people, and older people. The discrimination found in Western economies generally persists across countries and is stable over time, although some variation exists. |
| Date: | 2025–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7mt54_v1 |
| By: | Evan K. Rose; Yotam Shem-Tov |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the earnings and employment penalties associated with a criminal record. Using a large-scale dataset linking criminal justice and employer-employee wage records, we estimate two-way fixed effects models that decompose earnings into worker’s portable earnings potential and firm pay premia, both of which are allowed to shift after a worker acquires a record. We find that firm pay premia explain a small share of earnings gaps between workers with and without a record. There is little evidence of variable within-firm premia gaps either. Instead, components of workers’ earnings potential that persist across firms explain the bulk of gaps. Conditional on earnings potential, workers with a record are also substantially less likely to be employed. Difference-in-differences estimates comparing workers’ first conviction to workers charged but not convicted or charged later support these findings. The results suggest that criminal record penalties operate primarily by changing whether workers are employed and their earnings potential at every firm rather than increasing sorting into lower-paying jobs, although the bulk of gaps can be attributed to differences that existed prior to acquiring a record. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-39 |
| By: | Bilal Islah; Ahmed Zoulati |
| Abstract: | We offer evidence that federal emergency assistance (FEMA) in the days following natural disasters mitigate evictions in comparison to similar emergency scenarios where FEMA aid is not provided. We find a 16% increase in overall evictions after hurricane natural disaster events that can be decomposed to a 36% increase for those that do not receive FEMA rental assitance and only a 11% for hurricane events that do receive FEMA aid. Furthermore, we also show that FEMA aid acts as a liquidity buffer to other forms of emergency credit, specifically we find that both transactions volumes remain stable and result in a decrease in defaults by 19% in payday loans during hurricane events in locations that do receive FEMA aid. This effect largely reverses in areas that do not receive FEMA aid, where transaction volumes drop by 12\% and default rates remain similar relative to the baseline. Overall, this suggests that the availability of emergency liquidity during natural disaster events is indeed a binding constraint with real household financial consequences, in particular through our documented channel of evictions and in usage of high-cost credit. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.14548 |