|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Leo Kaas; Georgi Kocharkov; Nicolas Syrichas |
| Abstract: | We examine the evolution of spatial house price dispersion during Germany’s recent housing boom. Using a dataset of sales listings, we find that house price dispersion has significantly increased, which is driven entirely by rising price variation across postal codes. We show that both price divergence across labor market regions and widening spatial price variation within these regions are important factors for this trend. We propose and calibrate a directed search model of the housing market to understand the driving forces of rising spatial price dispersion, highlighting the role of housing supply, housing demand and frictions in the matching process between buyers and sellers. While shifts in housing supply, housing demand and search frictions all matter for overall price increases and for regional price differences, we find that variation in housing demand is the primary factor contributing to the widening spatial dispersion. Our model-based demand and supply components correlate strongly with regional fundamentals, suggesting that they capture economically meaningful variation in local housing markets. |
| Keywords: | House price dispersion, Spatial housing markets, Search frictions in housing markets |
| JEL: | D83 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0065 |
| By: | Montebruno Bondi, Piero; Silva, Olmo; Szumilo, Nikodem |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of borrower protection on mortgage and housing demand using variation in the likelihood that houses are repossessed coming from heterogeneity in preferences of local judges. We develop a framework that provides conditions to identify the impact of repossession risk on housing and credit demand, holding supply fixed. Empirically, we exploit exogenous variation in risk created by boundaries of court catchment areas. We find that a one-standard-deviation decrease in borrower protection decreases borrowing and house prices by 4.5%. |
| Keywords: | house repossessions; mortgages; house prices; housing demand; mortgage default |
| JEL: | G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127298 |
| By: | Elena Lutz; Sam Heroy; David Kaufmann; Neave O'Clery |
| Abstract: | Transport infrastructure is vital to the functioning of cities. However, assessing the impact of transport policies on urban mobility and behaviour is often costly and time-consuming, particularly in low-data environments. We demonstrate how GPS location data derived from smartphones, available at high spatial granularity and in near real time, can be used to conduct causal impact evaluation, capturing broad mobility and interaction patterns beyond the scope of traditional sources such as surveys or administrative data. We illustrate this approach by assessing the impact of a 2018 cable car system connecting a peripheral low-income neighbourhood in Bogota to the bus rapid transit (BRT) system. Using a difference-in-differences event study design, we compare people living near the new cable car line to people living in similar areas near planned stations of a future line. We find that the cable car increased mobility by approximately 6.5 trips per person per month, with most trips within the local neighbourhood and to the city centre. However, we find limited evidence of increased encounters between the low income cable car residents and other socioeconomic groups, suggesting that while the cable car improved access to urban amenities and quality of life, its impact on everyday socioeconomic mixing was more modest. Our study highlights the potential of mobile phone data to capture previously hard-to-measure outcomes of transport policies, such as socioeconomic mixing. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.09311 |
| By: | Philipp Grunau; Florian Hoffmann; Thomas Lemieux; Mirko Titze |
| Abstract: | We study the granular wage and employment effects of a German place-based policy using a research design that leverages EU-wide rules governing program parameters at the regional level. The program subsidizes investments to create jobs with a subsidy rate that varies across labor market regions. We use matched data on the universe of establishments and their employees, establishment-level panel data on program participation, and regional scores that generate spatial discontinuities in program eligibility and generosity. Spatial spillovers of the program linked to changing commuting patterns can be assessed using information on place of work and place of residence, a unique feature of the data. We find that the program helps establishments create jobs that disproportionately benefit younger and less-educated workers. Funded establishments increase their wages, but, unlike employment, wage gains do not persist in the long run. Employment effects estimated at the local level are slightly larger than establishment-level estimates, suggesting limited economic spillover effect. Spatial spillovers are large as over half of the employment increase comes from commuters. Using subsidy rates as an instrumental variable for actual subsidies indicates that it costs approximately EUR 25, 000 to create a new job in the economically disadvantaged areas targeted by the program. |
| JEL: | H71 J21 J31 J63 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33785 |
| By: | Bruno T. Rocha; Patrícia C. Melo; Rui Colaço; João de Abreu e Silva; Nuno Afonso |
| Abstract: | As urban land increased in mainland Portugal by 55.9% between 1990 and 2012 and the country developed an extensive motorway network between the 1980s and the early 2010s, we set out to investigate the effect of motorways on urban sprawl across mainland municipalities. We document the evolution of urban sprawl for these 275 municipalities across several dimensions, including the population density of urban land, its degree of fragmentation and shape irregularity (which we combine in a summary “total interface” indicator), and the differences between the central urban unit and the remaining “peripheral” urban land. Given that the spatial distribution of motorways is likely to be endogenous, we use road itineraries from the 18th century as an instrumental variable. Our results suggest that motorways contributed to the fragmentation of urban land into numerous urban patches. Also, we identify important within-municipality heterogenous effects, in that motorways did not cause the contiguous growth of the central urban unit (typically the largest urban unit in each municipality) but, conversely, appeared to contribute in a significant manner to the development of peripheral urban land. There is also some evidence that motorways contributed to an increase in the shape irregularity of urban areas. Finally, we show that motorways caused a decrease in urban population density, but only in the relatively small group of more urbanised municipalities. |
| Keywords: | Urban sprawl; urban land; urban fragmentation; motorways; transport accessibility; instrumental variables; Portugal. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03802025 |
| By: | Marzena Binkiewicz (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Artur Pokropek (Institute of Philosophy and Sociology, Polish Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal impact of prolonged school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic on non-cognitive predictors of mathematics achievement and the strength of their association with student performance. Drawing on data from TIMSS (2015, 2019, 2023) and PISA (2022), we apply difference-in-differences (DiD) models across two research designs: successive cross-sections of 4th-grade cohorts and a pseudo-panel following a cohort from primary to secondary school. Our findings indicate that, although school closures did not significantly affect the level of students’ self-beliefs, they did reduce the strength of the association between negative attitudes and achievement—particularly among girls and in OECD countries. The results highlight the nuanced effects of distance learning on mathematics outcomes, contributing to the literature on the role of affective-motivational factors in education. |
| Keywords: | Mathematics achievement, non-cognitive factors, distance learning, school closures, TIMSS, PISA, gender differences, math anxiety, self-efficacy |
| JEL: | I21 I24 C21 C23 C83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-16 |
| By: | Bluhm, Richard; Dreher, Axel; Fuchs, Andreas; Parks, Bradley C.; Strange, Austin M.; Tierney, Michael J. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of transport infrastructure on the spatial distribution of economic activity within subnational regions across a large number of developing countries. To do so, we introduce a new global dataset of geolocated Chinese grant- and loan-financed development projects from 2000 to 2014 and combine it with measures of spatial concentration based on remotely sensed data. We find that Chinese financed transportation projects decentralize economic activity within regions, as measured by a spatial Gini coefficient, by 2.2 percentage points. The treatment effects are particularly strong in regions that are less developed, more urbanized, and located closer to cities. |
| Keywords: | Development finance, Transport costsInfrastructure, Foreign aid, Spatial concentration, China |
| JEL: | F35 R11 R12 P33 O18 O19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318203 |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser; Joseph Gyourko |
| Abstract: | Housing prices across much of America have hit historic highs, while less housing is being built. If the U.S. housing stock had expanded at the same rate from 2000-2020 as it did from 1980-2000, there would be 15 million more housing units. This paper analyzes the decline of America’s new housing supply, focusing on large sunbelt markets such as Atlanta, Dallas, Miami and Phoenix that were once building superstars. New housing growth rates have decreased and converged across these and many other metros, and prices have risen most where new supply has fallen the most. A model illustrates that structural estimation of long-term supply elasticity is difficult because variables that make places more attractive are likely to change neighborhood composition, which itself is likely to influence permitting. Our framework also suggests that as barriers to building become more important and heterogeneous across place, the positive connection between building and home prices and the negative connection between building and density will both attenuate. We document both of these trends throughout America’s housing markets. In the sunbelt, these changes manifest as substantially less building in lower density census tracts with higher home prices. America’s suburban frontier appears to be closing. |
| JEL: | R14 R3 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33876 |
| By: | Alessia De Stefani |
| Abstract: | I study how monetary policy interacts with mortgage underwriting standards in shaping tenure decisions and rental market equilibria. Using property-level data from the American Housing Survey, I show that the increase in mortgage rates between 2021 and 2023 pushed many potential first-time home-buyers above FHA mortgage payment-to-income limits, restricting their access to home-ownership. This resulted in additional demand pressure on local rental markets, contributing to rent price inflation in 2023. Rentals located in cities with larger shares of constrained first-time buyers experienced steeper price growth, controlling for unit characteristics and contemporaneous economic developments. Rent inflation was more pronounced in smaller units occupied by lower-income renters, underscoring the potential for second-round distributional effects of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages; Homeownership; Monetary Policy; Rents |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/090 |
| By: | Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Öztek, Abdullah Selim (Ankara University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of immigration on crime in the context of the massive influx of Syrians to Türkiye, using comprehensive data that spans all stages of the judicial process—from prosecution to incarceration—and includes information on the nativity status of both perpetrators and victims. To isolate causal effects, we employ a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation technique, exploiting substantial exogenous variation in the migrant-to-native ratio that arises from the geographical proximity of Turkish provinces to Syrian governorates. The findings reveal a slight increase in total crime at the prosecution stage, while no significant effects are detected for criminal court cases or convictions. Moreover, natives experience increased victimization at the prosecution stage, while their involvement in criminal activities remains unchanged. In contrast, both the likelihood of committing a crime and being a victim of crime increase among immigrants. The analysis further suggests that immigrants may be crowding out natives in specific crime categories, such as smuggling. |
| Keywords: | suspects, crime, immigration, victimization |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 J68 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17885 |
| By: | Manabu Nose (Faculty of Economics, Keio University.); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Tung Nguyen (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the nonlinear effects of a large-scale highway construction project in the Greater Mekong Subregion, which connects the historically conflict-affected borderlands of northern Vietnam to the country’s industrial core. Employing a market access framework with geo-coded highway network and firm-level panel data, we estimate the causal impact of improved interregional connectivity, while accounting for spillovers via production input-output linkages. To address endogeneity issues arising from non-random route placements, we construct least-cost path spanning tree networks. Our instrumental variable estimates reveal that enhanced market access spurred manufacturing firm agglomeration and employment growth, particularly in peripheral rural areas. We further explore the underlying sources of polycentric development patterns, finding pronounced effects in second-tier cities characterized by less intense competition and better access to national road networks. Our findings are robust to controls for industrial zones, underscoring the pivotal role of the upgraded highway connectivity in transforming previously marginalized regions and supporting economy-wide industrialization over the past decade. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1251 |
| By: | Cheesman, Rosa (University of Oslo); Borgen, Nicolai T. (University of Oslo); Sandsor, Astrid Marie Jorde (University of Oslo); Hufe, Paul (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether better schools can compensate for the effects of children’s genetic differences. To this end, we combine data from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) with Norwegian register data to estimate the interaction between genetic endowments and school quality. We use MoBa’s genetic data to compute polygenic indices for educational attainment (PGIEA). Importantly, MoBa includes information on the genetic endowments of father-mother-child trios, allowing us to identify causal genetic effects using within-family variation. We calculate school value-added measures from Norwegian register data, allowing us to causally estimate school quality effects. Leveraging the advantages of both data sources, we provide the first causally identified study of gene-environment interactions in the school context. We find evidence for substitutability of PGIEA and school quality in reading but not numeracy: a 1 SD increase of school quality decreases the impact of the PGIEA on reading test scores by 6%. The substitutability arises through gains of students at the lower end of the PGIEA distribution. This shows that investments in school quality may help students to overcome their draw in the genetic lottery. |
| Keywords: | polygenic index, gene-environment interaction, education, school value-added |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17899 |
| By: | Deneault Christa |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Texas, I track individuals from high school through college to the workforce to determine the effects of local labor markets on occupational choice. I find local labor market conditions are countercyclical with selection into teaching and have a larger influence when experienced during high school. Individuals sorting into teaching because of poor local labor market conditions are of higher ability (standardized tests) and have higher productivity (value-added). The findings suggest that local labor market fluctuations shape career decisions well before individuals participate in the labor market, and that increasing the relative economic standing of teaching as a career has the potential to improve the future supply of teachers. |
| Keywords: | teachers; occupational choice; college major; local labor markets |
| JEL: | E32 H75 I20 J24 J45 |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:100075 |
| By: | Barile, Lory (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Guin, Benjamin (Bank of England); Sandi, Eleni (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Environmental policies can inadvertently increase transition risks, negatively impacting property prices. The Minimum Energy Effciency Standard (MEES), designed to enhance energy effciency in rental properties, may devalue sub-standard properties and can affect neighboring above-standard ones. Our study documents this spatial externality using a dataset that combines property transaction variables with energy effciency data at the postcode level. We construct a concentration measure for sub-standard properties and apply it to both aggregate and property- level analyses using a difference-in-differences approach. Our findings indicate that MEES comes with spatial externality on properties unaffected by the policy, with a 3.2% price decline in neighborhoods with higher concentrations of sub-standard housing. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy ; Spatial externality ; House prices JEL Codes: Q01 ; Q49 ; Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1562 |
| By: | Cèlia Estruch-Garcia (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Albert Solé-Ollé (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Filippo Tassinari (Universitat Pompeu Fabra & BSE & IEB); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the electoral effects of Barcelona's Superblocks pedestrianization policy, a green initiative designed to reduce car traffic and enhance urban environments. Using census tract-level data from the 2023 local elections, we assess the policy's impact on support for the incumbent mayor. Our findings reveal a positive and statistically significant increase in votes in areas directly affected by the policy, with benefits also extending to neighboring districts. Importantly, there is no evidence that the intervention led to traffic displacement, which suggests that such disruptions did not provoke electoral backlash. Further analysis indicates that the policy's effects are not driven by concerns over gentrification or mobility disruptions. Instead, the effects are stronger in more educated neighborhoods, pointing to the role of environmental attitudes in shaping political support. These results contribute to the literature on the political economy of green policies, underscoring the importance of localized impacts in shaping electoral outcomes and sustaining públic support for urban climate initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Green policies, Cities, Elections |
| JEL: | D72 Q58 R53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-01 |
| By: | Priyaranjan Jha; Jyotsana Kala; David Neumark; Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez |
| Abstract: | We assess how minimum wage effects on restaurant employment in the U.S. vary with labor market size and monopsony power. Using city-level data, we construct monopsony proxies based on labor flows and concentration. Minimum wages bind less in larger cities, consistent with the urban wage premium, and omitting this relationship overstates how labor market power reduces adverse employment effects of minimum wages. Nonetheless, accounting for city size, lower job market fluidity is linked to weaker negative employment effects, consistent with search models. By contrast, traditional concentration measures do not consistently predict variation in the effects of minimum wages. |
| JEL: | J38 J42 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33862 |
| By: | Haoyang Liu; W. Ben McCartney; Rodney Ramcharan; Calvin Zhang; Xiaohan Zhang |
| Abstract: | Borrowers who refinanced mortgages between 2009 and 2012, a period marked by mortgage distress and dislocated housing markets, but also falling interest rates, were more likely to vote in the 2012 general election than similar borrowers who did not refinance. We exploit an eligibility cutoff in the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify a causal relationship. Consistent with the resource model of voting, the effect of refinancing on turnout is strongest among borrowers with lower incomes and larger debt service reductions. Our findings shed new light on an important channel linking economic conditions and political outcomes. |
| Keywords: | household finance; mortgages; interest rates; political participation; voter turnout |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D72 E43 H31 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99960 |
| By: | R. Marcus Hammond; Barb Fornssler; Elaine Hyshka; Kwame McKenzie; Rishika Wadehra; Sophie Baker; Jesse Rosenberg; Gabriel Eidelman; Rong Zhang; Nick Pearce (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | More than 5 million Canadians experience significant symptoms of mental illness. Each year, more than 4, 500 people die by suicide, and over 5, 500 lose their lives to opioid poisoning. While health services have traditionally been seen as being outside of the scope of municipal responsibility, local governments are increasingly responsible for delivering much of the front-line services addressing Canada’s mental health crisis – often with limited fiscal resources. The tenth report in the Who Does What series from the Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance (IMFG) and the Urban Policy Lab examines the role that municipalities play in harm reduction and mental health and provides recommendations for action. The authors argue that while municipalities have a lead role to play, cooperation with other local agencies and other orders of government is essential to tackle these issues effectively. R. Marcus Hammond, Barb Fornssler, and Elaine Hyshka explore how municipalities can better position themselves to effectively respond to mental health and addiction challenges. They outline how municipal governments can adopt a harm reduction approach to mitigate the issues they face, while providing recommendations for reforms in direct service delivery, land use, organizational policies and procedures, and drug policy and enforcement. Kwame McKenzie, Rishika Wadehra, Sophie Baker, and Jesse Rosenberg highlight the vital role municipalities play in addressing social factors that influence mental health, such as housing, racism, and public safety. They emphasize the unique insight local governments have into their communities, and advocate for the leveraging of local networks to develop more coordinated and effective responses to the challenges they face. The authors also offer a practical framework for municipal action, supported by case studies of cities leading efforts to improve well-being. |
| Keywords: | Canada, municipalities, mental health, intergovernmental relations, harm reduction, substance use |
| JEL: | H5 H75 I18 H70 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:mfgwdw:10 |
| By: | Yaroshevskyi, Artem |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the transition to a green economy affects internal migration patterns across European Union regions. As carbon-intensive sectors decline due to decarbonization policies, certain regions experience structural economic changes that prompt labor reallocation and demographic shifts. Using a novel panel dataset at the NUTS-3 level (2011–2021), this paper estimates a series of random-effects models to assess how carbon-intensive regions differ in migration trends compared to unaffected areas. The analysis incorporates a range of socio-demographic and economic variables to test five hypotheses on the drivers of outmigration, including youth share, elderly population, regional wealth, and median male age. Results indicate that regions classified as “affected” by the green transition exhibit significantly higher outmigration rates. Moreover, interaction effects show that aging male populations amplify these migration trends, while other moderators—such as GDP per capita and youth share—have no significant impact. These findings contribute to the literature on just transitions by highlighting how demographic composition mediates the adverse effects of green restructuring. The paper emphasizes the need for targeted regional policies, particularly in aging and economically vulnerable areas, to ensure equitable outcomes of green economic transitions. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, internal migration, carbon-intensive regions, demographic structure, panel data, just transition, NUTS-3 regions, labor mobility. |
| JEL: | Q20 Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124870 |
| By: | Rueß, Stefanie (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | How do media representations of immigrants affect their access to public services? Though prior research links national news reporting and administrative decisions, little is known about regional variation, an important omission because regional media produces more local news. I argue that street-level bureaucrats are embedded within a regional news environment, where reporting shapes their perception of regional immigration patterns and influences their decisions on public service allocation—a dynamic I term the regional media bias mechanism. To examine this phenomenon, I combine state-level data on benefit reduction rates in Germany’s welfare program Citizen’s Benefit with regional newspaper articles (2010-2020). Leveraging topic modeling and panel data analysis, I show that regional narratives on positive aspects of immigration are associated with more favorable administrative outcomes for immigrants, whereas frames emphasizing financial burdens correspond with stricter treatment. These results highlight the critical role of regional media in shaping policy implementation. |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v7x83_v1 |
| By: | Sulis Patrizia (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Access to broadband networks is increasingly an essential enabler to drive the economic and social development of territories, improving access to essential services such as education and contributing to the number of workplaces. The improvement of digital connectivity and Internet network performance is a long-standing policy priority for the European Commission to strengthen regional development and resilience and overcome spatial disparities in access to opportunities across different European regions. In this sense, mapping and understanding the spatial patterns of broadband network access and performance across regions in the EU27 is critical to adequately address the possible disparities and needs of different places and territories. Results presented in this report show that, over the last years, there has been a generalised improvement in broadband performance across all EU Member States, both for the fixed and mobile broadband networks. Whereas performance differences between cities and rural areas are still significant, contributing to a well-known âdigital divideâ, results also illustrate how, for several countries, the best performance improvements in network performance occurred in rural areas in recent years. These findings represent a promising signal for the current efforts to bridge the digital gap across territories in many European countries, envisioned by the Commission and sustained through dedicating policies. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc141281 |
| By: | Daniel Björkegren; Alice Duhaut; Geetika Nagpal; Nick Tsivanidis |
| Abstract: | Private minibuses dominate transport in many developing country cities. They serve 62% of trips in Lagos, the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa. We collect panel data to measure how private minibuses respond to the rollout of a new public bus network. When the government enters a route, minibuses depart less frequently, driver profits fall, and drivers switch to connected routes, reducing prices. We develop a custom app to estimate how commuters trade off prices and wait times in an RCT. The private response harms commuters on treated routes, who wait longer, but benefits those on connected routes, who face only lower prices. Overall, 10% of the commuter welfare gains of building the public transit system arise from the response of private transit. Drivers lose welfare equal to half of the commuter gains. |
| JEL: | O1 R0 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33899 |
| By: | Anjali Adukia; Emileigh Harrison |
| Abstract: | Curricula impart knowledge, instill values, and shape collective memory. Despite growing public funding for religious schools through U.S. school choice programs, little is known about what they teach. We examine textbooks from public schools, religious private schools, and home schools, applying computational methods—including AI tools—to measure the presence and portrayal of people, topics, and values over time. Despite narratives of political polarization, our findings reveal few meaningful differences between public school textbooks from Texas and California. However, religious school textbooks have less female representation, feature lighter-skinned individuals, and portray topics like evolution and religion differently. Over one-third of pages in each collection convey character values, with a higher proportion in religious school textbooks. Important similarities also emerge: all textbook collections rarely include LGBTQIA+ discussion, portray females in more positive but less active or powerful contexts than males, and depict the U.S. founding era and slavery in similar contexts. |
| JEL: | I0 I20 I21 I28 I29 J0 J10 J15 J16 J18 J19 Z10 Z11 Z12 Z13 Z18 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33791 |
| By: | Perin, Augusto O.; Castro, Hélder U.; Filho, Euclério B. O.; Martins, Joberto S. B. Prof. Dr. (Salvador University - UNIFACS) |
| Abstract: | The smart city strategy drives the creation of innovative solutions to the challenges of urban planning in cities. With its data collection capacity, the Internet of Things (IoT) is a key component of Information and Communication Technologies in smart cities. Likewise, Artificial Intelligence (AI) provides a set of vital tools for data analysis and service optimization. This article presents a discussion on the use of IoT in conjunction with Artificial Intelligence to obtain new solutions for planning, management, and services in smart cities. The analysis is based on a literature review that seeks to identify answers to questions involving urban planning in cities, the structuring themes of smart cities, AI techniques, and data collection. The results point to a powerful synergy between IoT and AI, aiming to develop innovative, effective, and integrated services to address the challenges of contemporary urban planning. |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:r36yg_v1 |
| By: | Molica Francesco; Marques Anabela |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dual nature of green discontent, which manifests as dissatisfaction with insufficient climate action and opposition to policies perceived as overly restrictive or economically disruptive. The analysis focuses on the spatial dimensions of this phenomenon, assessing how socio-economic, climatic, and institutional factors influence public attitudes toward environmental policies. The study relies on Eurobarometer survey data and voting patterns at the NUTS2 level to capture regional variations in green discontent across Europe. The results reveal clear contrasts between urban areas exposed to climate risks, rural regions dependent on carbon-intensive industries, and economically stable territories. These findings emphasize the importance of adopting place-based approaches to design climate policies that are both equitable and effective. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to integrate territorial environmental justice into climate strategies to address regional vulnerabilities and strengthen public support for ecological transition. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202504 |
| By: | Morshed, Monzur |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of a classroom-integrated computer-assisted learning (CAL) program in primary schools through a randomized controlled trial. Building on the ProFuturo model, the intervention combines tablet-based lessons, structured teacher training, and collaborative classroom practices. The research examines effects on student learning, teacher attendance, and classroom engagement, using baseline and end-line data from 40 schools. Results will inform the effectiveness of digital learning tools in low-resource settings. |
| Date: | 2025–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qczse_v1 |
| By: | Jean-Paul Daemen; Silvia Leoni |
| Abstract: | This paper employs agent-based modelling to explore the factors driving the high rate of tertiary education completion in the Netherlands. We examine the interplay of economic motivations, such as expected wages and financial constraints, alongside sociological and psychological influences, including peer effects, student disposition, personality, and geographic accessibility. Through simulations, we analyse the sustainability of these trends and evaluate the impact of educational policies, such as student grants and loans, on enrollment and borrowing behaviour among students from different socioeconomic backgrounds, further considering implications for the Dutch labour market. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.01142 |
| By: | Soukhov, Anastasia; Pereira, Rafael H. M.; Higgins, Christopher D.; Paez, Antonio |
| Abstract: | Transportation planning has long prioritized the efficiency of movement, or mobility. However, the concept of accessibility represents a more comprehensive evolution, shifting focus from mere movement to the potential to reach (i.e., spatially interact) with desired destinations. Despite growing recognition of accessibility-based planning approaches, the concept remains fragmented, with inconsistent definitions and unclear interpretations. This work's aim is to clarify and unify the concept of accessibility by connecting it into spatial interaction modeling. We demonstrate that widely used mobility and accessibility models, such as gravity-based accessibility and spatial interaction models, share common theoretical roots. From this foundation, this paper offers three contributions: (A) we introduce a family of accessibility measures within the principles of spatial interaction, and (B) formally define four members of the family, namely the 'unconstrained' measure (i.e., Hansen-type accessibility), the 'total constrained' measure (i.e., a constrained version of the Hansen-type accessibility), the 'singly constrained' measure (i.e., related to the popular two step floating catchment approach - 2SFCA), and the 'doubly constrained' measure representing realized interactions or 'access', effectively equal to the doubly constrained spatial interaction model; and (C) we demonstrate the interpretability advantages of the family, as these constrained accessibility measures yield values in units of the number of potential "opportunities for spatial interaction" or "population for spatial interaction" for each zone and zonal flow. The family of accessibility measures proposed here clarifies the concept of 'potential' in accessibility, demonstrates theoretical and formulaic linkages across popular accessibility and spatial interaction models, and reintroduces measurement units into accessibility measures. By doing so, we believe this family of measures can unlock a clearer, more interpretable, and cohesive foundation for accessibility analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:a9dxb_v1 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, Ethiopian youths and adults—primarily from the country’s southern and central regions—have been migrating to South Africa via the "southern route." Over the past 25 years, this male-dominated migration flow has grown increasingly irregular, relying on human smugglers and multiple transit countries. The Ethiopian immigrant population in South Africa has expanded significantly, with shifts in the demographics of migrants, including age, ethnicity, place of origin, gender, and socioeconomic status. Rural youth have increasingly joined this migration stream, and more women are now migrating for marriage. Migration brokers play a pivotal role in facilitating irregular migration from Ethiopia to South Africa. Upon arrival, most Ethiopian immigrants engage in the informal economy and remain socially segregated, with language barriers hindering integration. The profile of migrants has diversified in recent years, now including teenagers, college graduates, and civil servants. Concurrently, the smuggling and settlement processes have evolved, particularly due to stricter border controls—exacerbated by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic—which have altered smuggling dynamics and exacerbated inequalities among Ethiopian migrants in South Africa. Social networks sustain this migration trend, fuelled by narratives of financial success shared by early migrants through remittances, material goods sent back home, and social media. Labour market demands shape migrant profiles, with varying skill levels (low-skilled, unskilled, high-skilled) and gendered labour roles influencing migration patterns. Religion, particularly evangelical Christianity, also plays a significant role, framing migration as a divine blessing, shaping risk perceptions, and providing spiritual support in navigating the challenges of settlement. Aspirations for economic advancement and self-improvement drive many migrants, often leading them into precarious journeys facilitated by smuggling networks operating from Hosanna (the capital of Hadiya Zone) and Nairobi. Corruption among law enforcement agencies further enables this transnational smuggling industry. However, rising xenophobia in South Africa and stricter enforcement in transit countries like Kenya, Tanzania, and Malawi have reduced migration along this route since 2015. Unauthorized Ethiopian migrants in South Africa face stigmatization. They are, often being perceived as criminals, informal economy operators, or threats to local employment opportunities. This perception exacerbates their marginalization and limits their integration into South African society. |
| Keywords: | Human migration; Ethiopians; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Africa; informal economy; remittances; human smuggling; migration brokers; inequality; xenophobia; stigmatization; |
| JEL: | D14 D31 D62 D63 D74 D81 F22 F24 F61 J15 J23 J46 K37 N37 N87 O55 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124926 |
| By: | Barbosa, Marco Antônio Dias; Uzêda, Hélder Castro; Martins, Joberto S. B. Prof. Dr. (Salvador University - UNIFACS); de Menezes, José Euclimar Xavier |
| Abstract: | The study analyzes the ethical limits of integrating artificial intelligence into smart cities. AI enables the optimization of urban services, such as transportation, security, and environmental management, but involves the massive collection of data and the automation of decisions that affect citizens. The problem investigated is the ethical dilemmas related to privacy, transparency, and algorithmic discrimination. Through a qualitative exploratory perspective, the aim is to discuss the role of artificial intelligence in the development of smart cities, exploring the limits and justifications for decision-making in ethical and explainable AI models. The results indicate that although such models contribute to creating a more equitable and responsible urban environment, the justification for certain machine choices is still shrouded in algorithmic opacity. In the meantime, it is concluded that the adoption of explainable AI can be a tool for transparency and security in decisions in smart cities but does not exempt the need to adopt other criteria to justify certain choices. |
| Date: | 2025–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hypaj_v1 |
| By: | Tjaden, Jasper; Heidland, Tobias |
| Abstract: | In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern was that her decision would signal an open‐door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide – thus further increasing migration to Germany and making the country permanently more attractive to irregular and humanitarian migrants. This ‘pull‐effect’ hypothesis has been a mainstay of policy discussions ever since. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, not appearing welcoming to migrants has become a guiding principle for the asylum policy of many large receiving countries. In this article, we exploit the unique case study that Merkel's 2015 decision provides for answering the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, migration aspirations and online search interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the ‘pull effect’ hypothesis while reaffirming states’ capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration. |
| Keywords: | migration, policy, refugee, pull effect, Germany |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318205 |
| By: | John, Raju |
| Abstract: | There exists two major schools of thought regarding the efficacy of migration related policies. The first category consists of authors who can be called as migration policy optimists. They are optimistic about the ability of migration related policies to affect migration. The second category consists of authors who are referred as migration policy pessimists. They are pessimistic about the ability of policies to affect migration. Migration policy pessimists contend that migration is influenced by various factors in origins and destinations. These cannot be brought under absolute regulatory regime by means of policies. Therefore, changes in migration policies often cannot effectively control migration. The author attempts to assess the validity of these two schools of thought in the light of some recent migration related policies. The paper tries to illustrate how the changing nature of migration related policies are affecting the validity of the arguments raised by migration policy optimists and pessimists. |
| Keywords: | Migration Policy Optimism, Migration Policy Pessimism, GCC, Kerala |
| JEL: | F22 J6 J61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123092 |
| By: | Jordan S. Berne; Brian A. Jacob; Christina Weiland; Katharine O. Strunk |
| Abstract: | State laws that mandate in-grade retention for struggling readers are widespread in the U.S., covering 34% of public-school third graders in 2023-24. This study investigates the impacts of Michigan’s third-grade reading law on subsequent test scores and school progress outcomes for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 third-grade cohorts. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, we find that being flagged for retention raises students’ reading scores in the next school year by 0.045 standard deviations (SD)—a modest but meaningful impact. Because being flagged increases the likelihood of actually being retained by only 3.4 percentage points, the implied effect of retention itself under standard “fuzzy” RD assumptions would be an implausibly large 1.3 SD. This result suggests flagging may affect outcomes via mechanisms other than just retention, a violation of the exclusion restriction. Indeed, we estimate similar effects even in districts that retain no students. Survey evidence suggests flagged students receive more intensive reading support even if they are not retained. Our findings suggest retention may be a much less important component of literacy reforms than previously understood. Finally, given the similarity between Michigan’s reading law and those in other states, our findings raise concerns about potential bias in previously estimated retention effects. |
| JEL: | H1 H4 I2 I21 I24 I28 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33764 |
| By: | Antonicelli, Margareth; Drago, Carlo; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | This study examines income inequality across Italian regions by integrating instrumental variable panel data models, k-means clustering, and machine learning algorithms. Using econometric techniques, we address endogeneity and identify causal relationships influencing regional disparities. K-means clustering, optimized with the elbow method, classifies Italian regions based on income inequality patterns, while machine-learning models, including random forest, support vector machines, and decision tree regression, predict inequality trends and key determinants. Informal employment, temporary employment, and overeducation also play a major role in influencing inequality. Clustering results confirm a permanent North-South economic divide and the most disadvantaged regions are Campania, Calabria, and Sicily. Among the machine learning models, the highest income disparities prediction accuracy comes with the use of Random Forest Regression. The findings emphasize the necessity of education-focused and digitally based policies and reforms of the labor market in an effort to enhance economic convergence. The study portrays the use of a combination of econometric and machine learning methods in the analysis of regional disparities and proposes a solid framework of policy-making with the intention of curbing economic disparities in Italy. |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tk87m_v1 |
| By: | Aleksandar Keseljevic; Stefan Nikolic; Rok Spruk |
| Abstract: | We investigate the long-term impact of civil war on subnational economic growth across 78 regions in five former Yugoslav republics from 1950 to 2015. Leveraging the outbreak of ethnic tensions and the onset of conflict, we construct counterfactual growth trajectories using a robust region-level donor pool from 28 conflict-free countries. Applying a hybrid synthetic control and difference-in-differences approach, we find that the war in former Yugoslavia inflicted unprecedented regional per capita GDP losses estimated at 38 percent, with substantial regional heterogeneity. The most war-affected regions suffered prolonged and permanent economic declines, while capital cities experienced more transitory effects. Our results are robust to extensive variety of specification tests, placebo analyses, and falsification exercises. Notably, ethnic tensions between Serbs and Croats explain up to 40 percent of the observed variation in economic losses, underscoring the deep and lasting influence of ethnic divisions on economic impacts of the armed conflicts. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.02431 |
| By: | Umut Özek |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of remedial courses in high school on postsecondary outcomes using a regression discontinuity design and explores the mechanisms behind these effects. I find that being placed in the remedial schedule and taking an additional remedial course in high school reduces the likelihood of attaining a 2- or 4-year college degree by 20 percent. The findings also suggest that nearly half of this adverse effect is driven by the tracking effect of remediation, which significantly reduces students’ access to advanced courses in high school not only in the remediation subject but also in other core subjects. |
| Keywords: | remedial courses, college readiness, postsecondary outcomes, human capital |
| JEL: | I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11908 |
| By: | Caroline Fry; Britta Glennon |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the role of coethnic advisor-student matching in U.S. Ph.D. programs in attracting, training and guiding immigrant talent into top jobs in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Using comprehensive administrative data on 1, 769 AI Ph.D. graduates from top U.S. programs, combined with their advisors’ profiles and post-Ph.D. employment outcomes, and complemented by original survey data, we document two new findings. First, immigrant students systematically match with coethnic thesis advisors at markedly higher rates than would be expected by chance. This matching is shaped by reputational spillovers, pre-Ph.D. contact, and preference for shared backgrounds. Second, immigrant students with coethnic advisors are more likely to enter high-quality industry jobs after graduation than their native counterparts. We find suggestive evidence that this is driven by access to industry internships, facilitated by these advisors' unique professional networks. Our findings reveal that universities, through their immigrant-origin faculty, act as critical conduits connecting global scientific talent to the U.S. innovation economy. An important organizational implication of our results is that disruptions to immigration may constrain firm-level access to talent and weaken the academic-to-industry pipeline. |
| JEL: | F22 I23 J24 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33782 |
| By: | Bonan, Jacopo; Granella, Francesco; Renna, Stefania; Sarmiento, Luis; Tavoni, Massimo |
| Abstract: | We randomize the installation of air purifiers across primary school classrooms to reduce children’s exposure to air pollution. The intervention reduces indoor PM₂.₅ concentrations by 32% and decreases student absenteeism by 12.5%. Effects are larger among students with higher pre-treatment absenteeism. The impact is greater when outdoor air pollution is relatively low and diminishes as outdoor pollution intensifies, consistent with non-linear marginal effects of air quality on health. The treatment students report fewer respiratory symptoms and exhibit greater awareness of air quality. The cost per absence day avoided is approximately € 11, resulting in a conservative cost-benefit ratio of one-to-nine.JEL codes: C93, I21, Q53, Q51Keywords: Indoor air quality, air purifiers, school absences, randomized controlled trial |
| Date: | 2025–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-17 |
| By: | Bosker, M.; Haasbroek, M. |
| Abstract: | We use detailed historical data on India’s domestic infrastructure to show how its high domestic transport costs have conditioned the local labour market consequences of its drastic import tariff liberalization in the early 1990s. We find that districts located farther away from the country’s main international gateways are better shielded from the resulting increased foreign import competition: their non-agricultural employment falls less than in otherwise similarly exposed districts located closer to India’s major ports. At the same time, they also benefit less from improved access to foreign intermediates: non-agricultural employment increases less than in districts with a similar input-output structure but located closer to the country’s main ports. These employment responses also vary across firms of different sizes: employment in small to medium sized firms is hit hardest by increased import competition, whereas employment in medium to large firms benefits most from better access to foreign intermediates. This difference between small and large firms is also most pronounced in districts best-connected to India’s major ports. |
| Keywords: | Words Gains from Trade, Domestic Infrastructure, Local Labour Demand, India |
| JEL: | F14 F15 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2529 |
| By: | Johannes Buggle; Max Deter; Martin Lange |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how network ties between local social leaders influenced the diffusion of mass protests in an autocracy. We focus on the Protestant Church and the Peaceful Revolution in East Germany. To quantify the role of leader networks in protest diffusion, we compile biographical records of over 1, 600 Protestant pastors, including their employment and education histories. Our findings reveal that network connections led to an increase in protest diffusion by up to 4.9 percentage points in a given week. Moreover, we highlight the importance of network centrality, pastors as information bridges, and the interaction with preexisting grievances and repression. |
| Keywords: | autocracy, religion, protests, networks, leaders |
| JEL: | D72 D74 N44 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0064 |
| By: | Allen IV, James |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes ongoing analysis of overlap between school and farming calendars in Madagascar in collaboration with the World Bank office in Madagascar. Following IFPRI Discussion Paper 2235 (Allen 2024), I develop a community-based measure of overlap as the number of days that the school calendar overlaps with crop calendars that weights the relevance of each crop by the community crop share and then aggregates across crops. A policy simulation of alternative school calendars identifies early January as the best time to start Madagascar's national school calendar (assuming the same structure as the actual school calendar) to avoid overlap with peak farming periods. Further, it finds additional gains can be made to reducing overlap by decentralizing school calendars to the local level and adopting each community's overlap-minimizing calendar. Next steps in 2025 include an empirical analysis that estimates the correlation between overlap and key education outcomes that simulates the potential gains of a locally decentralized overlap-minimizing school calendar. |
| Keywords: | crop calendar; farming systems; policies; schools; Madagascar; Africa; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:163428 |
| By: | Frattini, Federico Fabio; Vona, Francesco; Bontadini, Filippo; Colantone, Italo |
| Abstract: | What are the job multipliers of the green industrialization? We tackle this question within EU regions over the period 2003-2017, building a novel measure of green manufacturing penetration that combines green production and regional employment data. We estimate local job multipliers of green penetration in a long-difference model, using a shift-share instrument that exploits plausibly exogenous changes in non-EU green innovation. We find that a 3-years change in green penetration per worker increases the employment-to-active population ratio by 0.11 pp. The effect is: persistent both in manufacturing and outside manufacturing; halved by agglomeration effects that increase the labour market tightness; stronger for workers with high and low-education; and present also in regions specialized in polluting industries. When focusing on large shocks in a staggered DiD design, we find ten times larger effects, particularly in earlier periods. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Environmental Economics and Policy, Industrial Organization, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:358792 |
| By: | Eric A. Baldwin; Takuma Iwasaki; John J. Donohue |
| Abstract: | Fatal school shootings often spark support for stricter gun laws, threatening the gun lobby’s influence and agenda. To prevent political fallout, do pro-gun Political Action Committees increase contributions after fatal school shootings? Leveraging a novel dataset of pro-gun PAC contributions and school shooting incidents, we implement a difference-in-differences design with staggered treatment adoption to estimate the causal effect of school shootings on contributions to House candidates. We find that pro-gun PACs increase contributions by 30.2% to candidates in districts with fatal school shootings, but show no significant response to non-fatal school shootings or other mass shootings. The temporal pattern reveals strategic behavior: contribution spikes emerge in the wake of fatal school shootings and in proximity to elections, with effects dramatically amplified as Election Day approaches; within two months of Election Day, contributions increase by 1, 730%. These effects are concentrated in competitive districts (margins of 5%). Our findings provide robust evidence that pro-gun PACs deploy targeted financial contributions in response to school shootings, with the magnitude and timing suggesting a strategic counter-mobilization effort to maintain influence in affected districts when gun policy becomes locally salient and elections are near. Our findings underscore a gap in democratic accountability: while public opinion should drive policy change, organized interests with financial power can insulate political candidates from public pressure and obstruct its translation into legislative reform. |
| JEL: | C21 C22 C23 D72 D78 K00 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33900 |
| By: | Ryota Nakatani |
| Abstract: | What instruments can governments deploy to prevent fiscal crises in decentralized fiscal systems? This analysis reveals that good public sector institutions, controls by the central government over local fiscal balances and borrowing, and intergovernmental transfers could be effective instruments for reducing the probability of a crisis. Strengthening good institutions mitigates the unwanted effects of devolution on fiscal unsustainability by inhibiting allocative inefficiencies caused by the moral hazard of governments. Expenditure decentralization to local governments increases the probability of a crisis only when local governments run large budget deficits, indicating that controls by the center over the local budget balance or borrowing ability may help to avoid overspending and the resulting excessive indebtedness. Subnational fiscal rules and administrative constraints also reduce the probability of a crisis. Intergovernmental transfers are associated with a lower probability of a fiscal crisis because they can play a role in interregional risk sharing among subnational governments. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Crisis; Decentralization; Intergovernmental Transfers; Subnational Fiscal Rules; Administrative Constraints; Corruption |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/087 |
| By: | Bartscher, Alina K.; Kuhn, Moritz; Schularick, Moritz; Steins, Ulrike I. |
| Abstract: | Using new household-level data, we study the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its distribution since 1950. Most of the debt were mortgages, which initially grew because more households borrowed. Yet after 1980, debt mostly grew because households borrowed more. We uncover home equity extraction, concentrated in the white middle class, as the largest cause, strongly affecting intergenerational inequality and life-cycle debt profiles. Remarkably, the additional debt did not lower households' net worth because of rising house prices. We conclude that asset-price-based borrowing became an integral part of households' consumption-saving decisions, yet at the cost of higher financial fragility. |
| Keywords: | Household debt, Home equity extraction, Inequality, Household portfolios, Financial fragility |
| JEL: | G51 E21 E44 D14 D31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318398 |
| By: | Bai Yu; Li Yanjun |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic effects of gold mining operations on local firm performance using a comprehensive firm-level panel dataset. Employing fixed-effects models that exploit temporal and spatial variation in mine openings and activity status, we find that firms within a 10–100 kilometer radius of active mining operations experience significant positive effects: annual sales increase, employment rates rise—with a notable shift toward male and full-time positions—and firms adopt more autonomous and resilient trade practices. Our analysis suggests that these improvements are facilitated by reductions in business constraints, particularly those related to power supply, transportation infrastructure, customs procedures, court efficiency, tax administration, and reliance on less-educated workers. While mining boosts firm performance overall, sales gains concentrate in less-corrupt countries, while employment effects dominate in more-corrupt ones. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:73 |
| By: | Boarnet, Marlon G; Comandon, Andre |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewed academic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4xz587jc |
| By: | Garlick, Robert (Duke University); Field, Erica (Duke University); Vyborny, Kate (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study whether commuting barriers constrain women’s labor supply in urban Pakistan. We randomize offers of gender-segregated or mixed-gender commuting services at varying prices. Women-only transport more than doubles job application rates, while mixed-gender transport has minimal effects on men’s and women’s application rates. Women value the women-only service more than large price discounts for the mixed-gender service. Results are similar for baseline labor force participants and non-participants, suggesting there are many “latent jobseekers” close to the margin of participation. These findings highlight the importance of safety and propriety concerns in women’s labor decisions. |
| Keywords: | gender, mobility, transport, female labor force participation |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J28 L91 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17883 |
| By: | Laurène Thil; Stella Sophie Zilian (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how atypical work, alongside other labour market conditions, affect intra-EU migration and vice versa in 17 EU countries from 2004 to 2019. Relative increases of part-time and self-employment shares in sending countries increase net migration, whereas relative increases in short fixed-term shares reduce net migration. Net migration shocks persistently reduce part-time share differentials, initially reduce self-employment share differentials and increase short fixed-term share differentials. Atypical work explains about one-fifth of net migration fluctuations five and ten years after a shock. The findings highlight the trade-off between internal (employment flexibility) and external (migration) labour market adjustments. |
| Keywords: | atypical employment; intra-EU mobility; pVAR; labour market adjustment |
| JEL: | C33 F22 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:263 |
| By: | Heidland, Tobias; Wichardt, Philipp C. |
| Abstract: | This paper connects insights from the literature on cosmopolitan worldviews and the effects of perspective-taking in political science, (intergroup) anxiety in social psychology, and identity economics in a vignette-style experiment. In particular, we asked German respondents about their attitudes towards a Syrian refugee, randomizing components of his description (N = 662). The main treatment describes the refugee as being aware of and empathetic towards potential worries in the German population about cultural change, costs, and violence associated with refugee inflows. This perspective-taking by the refugee increases the reported ability to empathize with the refugee and, especially for risk-averse people, reported sympathy and trust. We argue that acknowledging the potential concerns of the host population relieves the tension between an anxious and a cosmopolitan/open part of people’s identities. Moreover, relieved tension renders people less defensive; i.e. when one aspect of identity is already acknowledged (expressing anxieties), it has less influence on actual behavior (expressing sympathy). In addition, previous contact with foreigners and a higher willingness to take risks are important factors in determining an individual’s willingness to interact with refugees. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318201 |
| By: | Lena Dräger; Klaus Gründler; Niklas Potrafke |
| Abstract: | Social interactions affect individual behavior in a variety of ways, but their effects on expectation formation are less well understood. We design a large-scale global survey experiment among renowned experts working in 135 countries to study whether peer effects impact expectations about the macroeconomy. The global setting allows us to exploit rich cross-national variation in macroeconomic fundamentals. Our experiment uncovers sizable effects of peers and shows that peer information also shifts monetary policy recommendations of experts. The results have important implications for the design of policies and models of information acquisition. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations, belief formation, peer effects, survey experiment, economic experts |
| JEL: | E31 E71 D84 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11892 |