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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Ballal, Shikha; Tripathi, Sabyasachi |
| Abstract: | Transit networks significantly influence city evolution, with mass rapid transit systems enhancing access to jobs, housing, and infrastructure. Indian Government is promoting metro rail projects to strengthen public transport, and many cities are developing their metro rail corridors, making understanding their impact crucial in the Indian context. This study investigates the impact of the mass rapid transit system (Namma Metro) on residential property values in Bengaluru, India. It investigates the impact of recently operational and existing metro lines on property values in different neighborhoods across Bengaluru. The research uses a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data analysis with hedonic price regression based on household surveys. The regression results show that proximity to metro stations and higher income levels lead to significant housing value increases. The dense areas and longer metro operation years contribute to higher property values, while the distance from the city centre and higher metro connection costs negatively impact property values. The findings have significant implications for urban planning and policy decisions. It helps understand how building metro stations leads to real estate development and value creation in the vicinity of the metro corridor and how transit-oriented development policies around metro stations can support land value capture. |
| Keywords: | Metro rail, transport systems, distance, housing value, Bengaluru, India |
| JEL: | L90 R21 R32 |
| Date: | 2025–05–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124686 |
| By: | Adrian Fernández-Pérez (Department of Banking and Finance, Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School, University of College Dublin, Ireland.); Marta Gómez-Puig (bDepartment of Economics and Riskcenter, Universitat de Barcelona. 08034 Barcelona, Spain.); Simón Sosvilla-Rivero (Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain).) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the housing bubble literature by analysing rental and sales price dynamics in Spain’s two largest urban centres—Madrid and Barcelona—between May 2007 and December 2024. Using monthly data from Idealista.com, Spain’s leading real estate platform, we detect the presence of price bubbles in both markets, assess their key determinants, and explore contagion effects across cities and segments. Our results show that while only a few bubbles emerged, they were of substantial duration. We also find evidence of contagion, with rental bubbles consistently preceding sales bubbles, underscoring the pivotal role of rental markets in driving price surges. Among the key determinants, higher hotel stays are associated with a reduced probability of housing bubbles, suggesting that more hotel-based tourists may help stabilise real estate markets in both urban centres. Rising interest rates and the availability of housing certificates are also linked to lower bubble risk. Conversely, increasing resident numbers significantly raise the likelihood of positive bubbles, whereas higher unemployment dampens it. These findings offer critical insights for housing policy in major urban areas. |
| Keywords: | Bubbles; Local Projections; Contagion; Real Estate Markets. |
| JEL: | R31 G12 E44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2503 |
| By: | Aditya Aladangady; Jacob Krimmel; Tess C. Scharlemann |
| Abstract: | Rising interest rates in 2022 significantly increased moving costs for homeowners with low fixed-rate mortgages, leading to a sharp drop in mobility. After accounting for biases from selective refinancing, we find mortgage rate “lock in” – the decline in moves due to the rising gap between market rates and homeowners’ fixed rates – explains 44% of the drop in mortgage borrower mobility from 2021 to 2022. This effect primarily reflects fewer local moves, with only modest impacts on moves across labor market areas. Consistent with a housing search model, we show that under certain conditions, lock-in tightens markets, driving up house prices – an effect that increases with a market’s initial tightness. The model also implies the effect of lock-in grows non-linearly in shock size. We estimate the 2022 lock-in shock reduced time on market by 29% and increased house prices by 8%. However, these effects were entirely due to historically tight initial housing market conditions. We show that in a more balanced housing market as in 2019, the same lock-in shock would have had little to no impact on prices or tightness. |
| Keywords: | Rate lock; Housing demand; Housing supply; House prices; Market tightness; Mortgages and credit; Mobility |
| JEL: | E52 G21 G51 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:100027 |
| By: | Celia Melguizo (Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain); Juan A. Sanchis (Universidad de Valencia and ERICES, Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | People's choices about where to live and work have changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The media, as well as regional and urban literature, acknowledge that the 'urban exodus' phenomenon occurred concurrently with the pandemic disruptive effects. This study explores how migration patterns shifted at the municipal level in Spain during 2020, while also examining how the factors traditionally seen as population attractors have evolved over time. We analyse a range of demographic groups, distinguishing between internal migration within provinces and movement across provincial borders. Our findings indicate a clear change in migration trends: municipal size has become less relevant and labour market conditions have also diminished in importance in interprovincial migration, while municipalities with a higher concentration of secondary residences have become much more attractive. |
| Keywords: | Internal Migration, Cities, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | J61 R1 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2509 |
| By: | Balaganesan, Balaji |
| Abstract: | This report assesses underutilized land parcels in the San Francisco Bay Area to identify opportunities for housing development aligned with California’s climate, transportation, and equity goals. The research focuses specifically on parcels situated within areas that are characterized by reduced automobile dependency due to proximity to transit, jobs, and amenities. Using geographic information systems (GIS), historical housing data, parcel valuation metrics, zoning analysis, and scenario modelling, the report categorizes parcels into three forms of underutilization: vacant parcels, parcels with low improvement-to-land value ratios, and parcels with minimal built coverage (below 25%). It also evaluates the effectiveness of current zoning regulations and examines housing allocation patterns in the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) process. There is substantial theoretical capacity for housing production in low-VMT zones; constraints such as regulatory complexities, redevelopment costs, methodological inconsistencies in defining low-VMT areas, and fragmented parcel ownership significantly limit development potential. The report shows stark trade-offs between strict environmental and equity-based criteria and feasible housing outcomes. There is a critical need for targeted zoning reforms, standardized VMT measurement methodologies, streamlined regulatory frameworks, and proactive investment strategies to unlock the latent potential of underutilized parcels. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Housing, Sustainable development, Regional development, Regulations, Zoning, Travel demand |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt48n332nc |
| By: | Qianqian Yang (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuaki Hamaguchi (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers an integrated perspective that bridges labor economics and spatial economics to shed light on the broader implications of minimum wage policies. Traditional labor economics, grounded in neoclassical and partial equilibrium models, yields ambiguous theoretical predictions regarding the employment effects of minimum wages, making empirical analysis essential. Yet empirical findings from both developed and developing countries remain mixed, shaped by differences in data, methods, and variable definitions. Spatial economics, particularly through general equilibrium frameworks, provides insight into how agglomeration forces, transport costs, increasing returns, and factor mobility influence regional economic outcomes. These models suggest that core regions benefiting from agglomeration rents may be better positioned to sustain generous public policies, including higher minimum wages. We also review evidence on how minimum wages affect migration and firm location decisions, though results remain inconclusive. Through a comprehensive review of the extant literature, this paper underscores the value of incorporating spatial perspectives in understanding minimum wage effects and identifies directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; Labor economics; Regional labor markets; Agglomeration rent; Spatial economics |
| JEL: | J38 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-08 |
| By: | Rachel Cho; Hisham Farag; Christoph Görtz; Danny McGowan; Huyen Nguyen; Max Schröder |
| Abstract: | Is there a multicultural neighborhood price premium? We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in British colonization patterns in Northern Ireland during the early 1600s which created neighborhoods of varying religious composition that persists until today. These religious groups are culturally distinct, but are observationally equivalent ethnically and socioeconomically. A standard deviation increase neighborhood-level multiculturalism raises house prices by 9.6%. Multiculturalism raises property prices by increasing asset liquidity and housing demand as a wider spectrum of society demand houses in these areas. The findings and mechanism contrast sharply with prior evidence showing negative relationships due to homophily, social networks, and identification challenges. |
| Keywords: | multiculturalism, house prices, homophily, segregation |
| JEL: | D1 G5 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11905 |
| By: | Cunneen-Franco, Morgan |
| Abstract: | In an era of urgent climate action and housing crises across California, parking policy has emerged as a powerful lever for transforming cities. While pricing parking is widely recognized by transportation experts as an effective tool for managing urban space and reducing vehicle emissions, implementing such policies remains politically challenging. The stakes of resolving parking policy deadlocks extend far beyond local politics. Unpriced on-street parking in high demand areas creates a cascade of significant negative externalities: drivers waste time circling, traffic and pollution increases, and drivers are disincentivized from shifting travel modes. My research uses a combination of both primary data (interview) and secondary data (archival text) to investigate a revealing case study: the protracted seven-year debate over a 2013 proposal to implement paid downtown parking in Davis, California. Why did Davis’s paid parking initiative fail despite strong evidence supporting its benefits? And what policy design and political strategy lessons can we learn from this case to make paid parking policy implementation more feasible in other medium-sized cities? This study yields actionable recommendations for other cities seeking to implement paid on-street parking, including: the importance of capitalizing on momentum once paid parking is proposed, the need for elected officials to demonstrate political courage, the value of having multiple champions both inside and outside of government, the beneficial role of public education, and the impact of strong policy implementation. My research findings provide a roadmap for local governments to increase the efficiency of their transportation systems and advance California’s broader climate objectives while navigating the complex dynamics that often derail initiatives to price parking. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Pay parking, Travel demand management, Case studies, Policy analysis |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt0h6018f6 |
| By: | Qianqian Yang (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuaki Hamaguchi (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a spatial general equilibrium model with exogenous minimum wages to investigate regional minimum wage disparities in the New Economic Geography. Numerical simulations in a two-region economy reveal the impact of minimum wage hikes on the spatial distribution of firms. We observe industrial hollowing out beyond a critical minimum wage gap threshold, yet regions with higher minimum wages can remain attractive as the core, particularly with low transport costs. Such attractiveness can be interpreted as agglomeration rent. We further examine the sustainability of the core-periphery pattern and the impact of minimum wage increases on the local labor market. |
| Keywords: | Spatial general equilibrium model; Minimum wage; Core-periphery pattern; Transport cost |
| JEL: | F12 F16 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-09 |
| By: | Yuhei MIYAUCHI; Kentaro NAKAJIMA; Stephen J. REDDING |
| Abstract: | We develop a tractable quantitative framework for modelling the rich patterns of spatial mobility observed in smartphone data. We show that travel is frequently undertaken as part of a travel itinerary, defined as a journey starting and ending at home that can include more than one intermediate stop on a given day. We show that these travel itineraries provide microfoundations for consumption externalities and generate rich patterns of complementarity and substitutability between locations. We show that the consumption externalities implied by travel itineraries are central to matching quasi-experimental evidence from the shift to WFH. We find that these consumption externalities are key drivers of the agglomeration of economic activity in central cities and shape the relative welfare gains from alternative transport improvements in favor of investments in central cities. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25048 |
| By: | Cheung , Lydia (Auckland University of Technology); Galimberti , Jaqueson (Asian Development Bank); Vermeulen, Philip (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | Using around 1 million repeat sales, we show idiosyncratic risk in real house price appreciation is time-varying, depends negatively on the initial house price, varies across locations, and decreases with the holding period. These systematic movements in idiosyncratic risk can be explained by time and regional variations in market thinness and differences in information quality across markets. We find borrowing costs and deposit requirements have offsetting effects on risk. Higher interest rates are associated with lower idiosyncratic pricing, while tighter deposit requirements are associated with shorter holding periods, which are subject to a higher risk. Finally, we find the systematic variations in idiosyncratic housing risk tend to be positively associated with excess capital returns. However, the risk–return trade-off emerges only through risk differences across house prices and holding periods, while idiosyncratic risk differences across time and regions are not rewarded in excess capital returns. |
| Keywords: | idiosyncratic risk; house prices; housing markets |
| JEL: | G10 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0783 |
| By: | Qianqian Yang (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuaki Hamaguchi (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether, and to what extent, inter-provincial migration in China responds to real minimum wage disparities. To conceptualize this relationship, we extend the Harris-Todaro framework by incorporating minimum wages in both rural and urban areas. For the empirical analysis, we utilize an origin-destination matrix constructed from Hukou-linked migration data (2000-2020) and match it with interprovincial minimum wage differentials. To address endogeneity concerns, we estimate a gravity-type model with fixed effects and apply an instrumental variable strategy. The baseline results indicate that a 1% increase in real minimum wage disparity leads to a 1.05% increase in inter-provincial migration. IV estimates suggest that simple OLS correlations may understate this positive effect. We also find significant heterogeneity: migrants from less developed provinces are more responsive to wage differentials, particularly when moving toward more urbanized regions. These findings highlight the role of minimum wage policy in shaping internal labor mobility within a developing and regionally diverse economy. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; Internal migration; China; Regional wage disparities; Instrumental variable strategy |
| JEL: | J38 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-11 |
| By: | Arusei, Edgar |
| Abstract: | This study investigates first- and last-mile connectivity to existing segments of the San Francisco Bay Trail (SFBT) in historically underserved Bay Area communities, with a detailed case study in Richmond, California. Although 70 percent of the 350-mile trail network is complete, physical barriers, freeways, freight rail lines, industrial zones, and insufficient pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure prevent low-income and minority neighborhoods from accessing the trail safely and directly. Employing a mixed-methods framework, a comprehensive literature review was first conducted to synthesize evidence on greenway benefits and equity frameworks. A regional GIS analysis was then performed to identify spatial disconnects between trail alignments and MTC Equity Priority Communities and BCDC Communities of Concern. Stakeholder interviews and community feedback from the MTC’s Bay Trail Equity Strategy Initiative were also synthesized. Six connector corridors in Richmond were subsequently selected for standardized field audits, which scored sidewalk continuity, bicycle facilities, crossing conditions, signage, lighting, and land-use context at both segment and intersection scales.Findings reveal pervasive “hostile edge” conditions, high-speed traffic without buffers, missing or narrow sidewalks, under-designed crossings, blank industrial frontages, fragmented bike lanes, and absent wayfinding, that disproportionately impact low-resource areas. Based on these insights, a phased toolkit of interventions was developed, spanning immediate low-cost measures, mid-term infrastructure upgrades, and long-term investments, to guide agencies in advancing equitable trail access across the Bay Area. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bikeways, Pedestrian areas, Greenways, Accessibility, Underserved communities, Built environment |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3cs7n1fg |
| By: | Tullio Jappelli (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, and CEPR); Ettore Savoia (Sveriges Riksbank and CeMoF); Alessandro Sciacchetano (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a place-based industrial policy (PBIP) aiming to establish industrial clusters in Italy in the 1960s-70s. Combining historical archives spanning one century with administrative data and leveraging exogenous variation in government intervention, we investigate both the immediate effects of PBIP and its long-term implications for local development. We document agglomeration of workers and firms in the targeted areas persisting well after the end of the policy. By promoting high-technology manufacturing, PBIP favored demand for business services and the emergence of a skilled local workforce. Over time, this produced a spillover from manufacturing – the only sector targeted by the program – to services, especially in knowledge-intensive jobs. Accordingly, we estimate higher local wages, human capital, and house prices in the long run. We provide suggestive evidence that these persistent effects may depend on the initial conditions of targeted locations. |
| Keywords: | place-based industrial policy, employment, wages, agglomeration |
| JEL: | J24 N94 O14 O25 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:733 |
| By: | Kilic, Tugce |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the economic structure of host regions shapes the labor market impacts of refugee inflows, focusing on the case of the Syrian refugee influx into Germany in 2014-2015. Utilizing a fuzzy difference-in-differences approach, the analysis introduces a novel measure of sectoral diversification to assess local absorptive capacity. The results show that sectoral diversification plays a significant role in moderating short-term labor market outcomes. Counties with less diversified employment structures experience greater adverse impacts on non-German workers, while more diversified regions are better able to absorb new arrivals and mitigate unemployment pressures. These results underscore the importance of considering local economic structures in the regional allocation of refugees and the design of integration policies. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Labor market, Asylum seekers, Syrian refugees, Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J21 J61 C21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:319062 |
| By: | Elizabeth Setren |
| Abstract: | Over sixty years following Brown vs. Board of Education, racial and socioeconomic segregation and lack of equal access to educational opportunities persist. Across the country, voluntary desegregation busing programs aim to ameliorate these imbalances and disparities. A longstanding Massachusetts program, METCO, buses K-12 students of color from Boston and Springfield, Massachusetts to 37 suburban districts that voluntarily enroll urban students. Supporters of the program argue that it prepares students to be active citizens in our multicultural society. Opponents question the value of the program and worry it may have a negative impact on suburban student outcomes. I estimate the causal effect of exposure to diversity through the METCO program by using two types of variation: difference-in-difference analysis of schools stopping and starting their METCO enrollment and two-stage least squares analysis of space availability for METCO students. Both methods rule out substantial test score, attendance, or suspension effects of having METCO peers. Classroom ability distribution and classroom suspension rates remain similar when METCO programs start and stop. There is no negative impact on college preparation, competitiveness, persistence, or graduation. |
| Keywords: | school integration, school segregation, school choice |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11893 |
| By: | Konar, Anushree; Tripathi, Sabyasachi |
| Abstract: | Identifying the optimal population size at which cities maximize economic benefits while minimizing congestion and pollution is a challenge. This research explores the optimal city size by examining the relationship between population and economic performance, measured by city GDP. Using data from OECD regions for about 562 cities, the analysis employs a quadratic regression model to test an inverse U-shaped relationship between city population and GDP in 2020. The empirical results show that cities initially experience economic growth as populations increase, but after a certain point (8.85 million), the benefits diminish due to congestion and pollution. The study concludes that an optimal city size exists, balancing the advantages of agglomeration with the costs of urban expansion. Additionally, population density, territorial fragmentation, working-age population, and built-up area positively affect city GDP, whereas air pollution negatively impacts it. Finally, several policies are recommended for sustainable urban development and efficient resource allocation. |
| Keywords: | Urban growth, optimal city size, population size, economic measurement, OECD cities. |
| JEL: | R0 R1 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–05–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124673 |
| By: | Hanson, Gordon H.; Moretti, Enrico |
| Abstract: | We examine changes in the spatial distribution of good jobs across U.S. commuting zones over 1980-2000 and 2000-2021. We define good jobs as those in industries in which full-time workers attain high wages, accounting for individual and regional characteristics. The share of good jobs in manufacturing has plummeted; for college graduates, good jobs have shifted to (mostly tradable) business, professional, and IT services, while for those without a BA they have shifted to (nontradable) construction. There is strong persistence in where good jobs are located. Over the last four decades, places with larger concentrations of good job industries have tended to hold onto them, consistent with a model of proportional growth. Turning to regional specialization in good job industries, we find evidence of mean reversion. Commuting zones with larger initial concentrations of good jobs have thus seen even faster growth in lower-wage (and mostly nontradable) services. Changing regional employment patterns are most pronounced among racial minorities and the foreign-born, who are relatively concentrated in fast growing cities of the South and West. Therefore, good job regions today look vastly different than in 1980: they are more centered around human-capital-intensive tradable services, are surrounded by larger concentrations of low-wage, non-tradable industries, and are more demographically diverse. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z6qkn_v1 |
| By: | Dennis Gaus; Heike Link |
| Abstract: | The Deutschlandticket, introduced in May 2023, offers unlimited travel on all regional public transport in Germany for 49€ per month. This paper provides an overview of how the intro-duction of the ticket influenced travel behaviour and mode choice based on the GIM Traces panel, a nationwide representative dataset combining GPS tracking data and survey re-sponses. The data, consisting of almost 4 million trips and 3, 000 participants between April and December 2023, reveal that the impact of the Deutschlandticket on public transport usage is small, if existent at all. Certain groups of participants, such as those travelling in urban envi-ronments, and types of trips, such as those with a distance below 30km, show minor increases in public transport usage with the introduction of the ticket. In addition, the data show that the ticket’s lower price point compared to previous monthly tickets makes it attractive for a large share of regular public transport users. Overall, the analysis finds that seasonal fluctua-tions as well as availability and reliability of public transport have at least as much of an impact on public transport usage as the introduction of the Deutschlandticket. |
| Keywords: | Public transport fares, Travel behaviour, Travel surveys, GPS tracking |
| JEL: | C55 C81 R41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2122 |
| By: | Giovanni Favara; James Graham; Geng Li |
| Abstract: | Home-related spending in categories such as furnishings, renovations, and repairs is tied to housing market activity, with significant implications for aggregate expenditure dynamics. We refer to this relationship as the home purchase channel of expenditure. Using household-level panel data we estimate that home purchases lead to sizable increases in home-related spending, but not to increases in goods and services unrelated to home purchase. These findings are robust to the use of close-control groups and placebo tests. We then build a heterogeneous household model with housing, home renovations, and home-related durables that is calibrated to match our household-level evidence. Model simulations of housing market shocks generate large fluctuations in home-related and total expenditure. We show that the home purchase channel amplifies aggregate expenditure dynamics, with home-related spending accounting for around half of total spending fluctuations over the housing cycle. |
| Keywords: | housing, home purchase, household spending, housing cycle |
| JEL: | D12 D15 E21 E32 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-32 |
| By: | Arundati, Yorangga Citra |
| Abstract: | As Berkeley's population ages-with those aged 60+ projected to comprise nearly 20% of residents by 203O-there is an opportunity to design public spaces that foster meaningful connections across generations. This study examines how parks and sidewalks can be an integrated public-space network that supports interactions between elders and other generations. Guided by the main research question: What features of public space support intergenerational interaction? And three guiding questions: How do elders currently use public space? What are the best practices of public space design for fostering intergenerational interactions? How can public space be enhanced to better support intergenerational interactions? The research employs a mixed-methods approach. Primary data includes systematic observations at three parks (Ohlone, Grove, Strawberry Creek) across varied times and days; intercept interviews with elders in the parks; and six wallking interviews. These were complemented by precedent case studies of real projects and design toolkits. Findings reveal that elders use Berkeley's parks steadily throughout the day and week, while children and working-age adults appear in sharper peaks. Meaningful cross-age encounters are most likely when older adults linger-something encouraged by safe, well-paved approaches, places to sit, varied and sensory environments, dog-friendly areas, and play or fitness amenities that invite joint participation. Physical barriers on sidewalks, lack of pause points, and traffic noise suppress those encounters. Based on these insights, eight design elements are proposed-Rhythms, Safety, Pause Nodes, Age-Neutral Spaces, Sensory Experience, Shared Play, Health & Fitness, and Social Activation-each illustrated with targeted strategies and case studies. These recommendations aim to guide planners, designers, and community organization in creating built environments that invite intergenerational interaction for everyone. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Public spaces, Parks, Aged, Children, City planning, Urban design |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3qv1s55m |
| By: | Matthew A. Guzman; Scott A. Imberman; Neil R. Filosa; Tara Kilbride; Nat Malkus |
| Abstract: | Schools have long played a frontline role in efforts to contain infectious diseases and prevent spread to the wider community. These include vaccination requirements, school closures during periods of high illness, and the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) during outbreaks. In this paper we investigate the impact of mask mandates in schools on COVID spread. We use event study and difference-in-differences models that exploit the removal of mask mandates in districts serving 50% of public school students in the U.S. surrounding the revocation of CDC guidance recommending school masking in February and early March of 2022. We estimate that going from 0% to 100% mandated masking in a county reduces COVID deaths by 0.57 per 100k people. We further estimate that the removal of mandates during this time contributed to 21800 COVID deaths through the rest of 2022, 9% of the U.S. total that year. Due to the fact that COVID deaths among students and, to a lesser extent, school staff were rare in the U.S. given school age profiles, we argue that the bulk of these deaths were from spillovers to residents in the wider community. |
| JEL: | I18 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33849 |
| By: | Margaret M. Jacobson |
| Abstract: | Endogenously optimistic beliefs about future house prices can account for the increase, time-path, and volatility of house prices in the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s without shocks to housing preferences. In a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and aggregate risk, heterogeneous agents endogenously form beliefs about future house prices in response to shocks to fundamentals. When fundamentals like credit conditions loosen, agents can only partially revise up their beliefs, resulting in increasingly optimistic beliefs that are consistent with both novel and existing empirical evidence. Because endogenous beliefs are sensitive to policy interventions, how beliefs are formed in housing booms has direct implications for prudential policy. |
| Keywords: | Housing boom; Aggregate risk; Heterogeneous agents; Incomplete information |
| JEL: | E20 E30 C68 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:100028 |
| By: | William J. Collins; Nicholas C. Holtkamp |
| Abstract: | We shed new light on historical black-white disparities in wealth and economic mobility by examining datasets of linked census records. First, we compare black and white men’s intra- and inter-generational mobility into property ownership between 1870, the first census taken after the Civil War, and 1900. Conditional on not owning property in 1870, black men’s mobility rate into property ownership was far lower than white men’s. If black men’s post-1870 mobility had mirrored that of landless white men, the black-white home ownership gap in 1900 would have been small. Second, we show that for black men located in cotton-intensive counties in 1870, the likelihood of owning property in 1900 was far lower than for black men located elsewhere. This is apparent in national samples as well as in samples restricted to the states of the former Confederacy, with and without extensive controls. This pattern is connected to the prevalence of sharecropping and relatively high black population shares. For white men, the difference in upward mobility between cotton-intensive and other areas was much smaller or non-existent. Many black households did acquire land and homes of their own in this era, an important channel for economic advance, but racism and discrimination slowed their mobility into property ownership. |
| JEL: | I3 J70 N31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33860 |
| By: | Ron Boschma |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews how the concept of institutional complementarities has been approached in the Varieties of Capitalism and Policy Mix literatures. Based on a critical review, we propose instead an evolutionary framework to analyze institutional complementarities that is inspired by the principle of relatedness. We discuss promising future applications in economic geography, such as how complementarities across institutions may promote regional diversification in regions, how this institutional complementarity framework may shed light on the question what is feasible when implementing institutional change in specific territorial contexts, and how it may contribute to understand better how regional innovation policy may become effective in particular institutional contexts. |
| Keywords: | institutions, institutional complementarities, institutional relatedness, institutional change, institutional space, varieties of capitalism, policy mix, policy space, regional diversification, Evolutionary Economic Geography |
| JEL: | B15 B52 P51 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2514 |
| By: | Mauro, M.;; Porcelli, F.;; Vidoli, F.; |
| Abstract: | The integration of functional and spatial data in clustering methods is increasingly relevant in regional and urban economics. This paper introduces a novel spatial clustering algorithm that simultaneously considers geographical proximity and the similarity of temporal trends to identify territorially coherent clusters. The methodology, validated through simulations and applied to realworld data on Italian municipal health tax detractions, reveals significant geographical groupings characterized by similar levels and dynamics of tax benefits. Findings highlight that tax detractions align more closely with the economic capacity of individuals and areas rather than actual healthcare needs, raising concerns about equity and the territorial distribution of fiscal advantages. This divergence between formal universal healthcare principles and practical fiscal outcomes underscores the need for spatially aware policy tools. The proposed approach offers a replicable framework for analyzing spatio-temporal patterns across various domains, balancing interpretability and methodological rigor. |
| Keywords: | spatial clustering; functional data analysis; tax expenditures; health economics; |
| JEL: | C38 H51 H71 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:25/05 |
| By: | Isabella Marinetti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Dmitri A. Jdanov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Domantas Jasilionis (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Marilia R. Nepomuceno (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Fanny Janssen |
| Abstract: | Seasonal mortality fluctuations significantly affect national life expectancy, yet their role in regional inequalities remains underexplored. Understanding this is crucial for targeted health policies aimed at reducing spatial mortality differences. We quantify the impact of seasonal excess mortality on regional life expectancy levels (e0) and inequalities in Italy. Using monthly mortality data from the Italian National Statistical Institute by region (N = 20), sex and age between 2005-2019, we assessed e0 losses due to seasonality by comparing observed mortality with minimum achievable levels. Seasonal effects on inequalities in e0 were quantified by comparing standard deviations with and without excess seasonal mortality and examined regional contributions using decomposition analysis. Eliminating seasonal excess mortality reduced regional e0 differences by 1.4 years (1.36-1.70) on average for both sexes. This effect was most pronounced in southern and insular regions (Campania and Sicilia), especially for winter-related excess mortality. Overall, removing winter excess mortality led to an average of 0.6 years (7.5%) decline in regional inequality. However, during the years with high mortality burdens (2005 and 2015), seasonality contributed to spatial mortality inequality by 10% and 5.2%, respectively. The regional contributions to e0 inequality revealed that Campania and Sicilia also had the strongest role in increasing spatial mortality variation throughout the period. The pronounced regional inequalities in e0 losses due to seasonal excess mortality contributed significantly to shaping regional e0 variation in Italy, mostly due to different impacts of winter mortality within the country. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-013 |
| By: | Coelli, Federica (Dept. of Economics, University of Zurich); Pelzl, Paul (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using oil and gas shocks as an exogenous source of business cycles at the U.S. commuting zone level, we provide novel evidence that local booms increase local patenting, especially in non-metropolitan areas. This reflects agglomeration economies that make incumbent inventors more productive. In contrast to total patenting, innovation in oil and gas – the sector closest to the boom – is countercyclical, consistent with higher opportunity costs of innovation in a booming industry. Our findings shed new light on the spatial dimension of innovation, inform recent debates on place-based industrial policy, and help to reconcile mixed evidence on the cyclicality of innovation. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; patents; local economic booms; agglomeration; natural resources |
| JEL: | L71 O12 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2025_020 |
| By: | AIBA, Ikuto; YAMAGHISHI, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | We examine how the inflow of external income shapes the pattern of urbanization and the economic structure. We focus on the unique case of Okinawa in Japan, where many US military bases were constructed for strategic reasons and the income inflow from them accounted for up to 40% of the aggregate income. Using newly digitized data, we first document rapid urbanization near the bases, driven by service sector expansion rather than manufacturing. We then develop a new quantitative spatial model and calibrate it to the Okinawan economy in 1970. Our counterfactual analysis highlights that the US-base related income was crucial to urbanization without industrialization. Contrary to Dutch disease concerns, we find that such urbanization without industrialization significantly increased aggregate income and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, Service sector, Quantitative spatial model, Military bases, Okinawa |
| JEL: | O14 O18 N40 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:767 |
| By: | Sergio Palomeque |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the processes of generating new technical knowledge, aim- ing to contribute to an understanding of how less developed economies can diversify their knowledge base to support economic development. We study the structure of relatedness of required knowledge between technologies at a global level, conceived as a network where technologies are connected according to the intensity with which they co-occur in the inventors’ portfolios. Based on this, topological characteristics of the network are studied using node-level metrics to propose diversification strate- gies that alleviate the lock-in effects suffered by less developed economies. The paper contributes to the literature by proposing two indicators that can be used to analyse relevant dimensions of the innovation system of cities in less developed regions. One of the indicators enables us to compare the levels of stability of the technologies that comprise the knowledge base of the cities. The second provides a measure of the level of alternatives available to the city for each diversification decision. The results, based on the analysis of Latin American cities, show that the stability of the technologies present in a city, as well as the alternatives available to choose its diversification path, are relevant to designing diversification strategies that could contribute to overcoming the constraints generated by the characteristics of the knowledge base of those cities. |
| Keywords: | relatedness; innovation systems; patents; cities; Latin America; Evolu- tionary Economic Geography |
| JEL: | B52 D85 O31 O32 O34 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2515 |
| By: | Laura Conti; Marco Francesconi; Giulio Papini; Michel Serafinelli; Gabriella Conti |
| Abstract: | This paper documents how the local labor market (LLM) responds to a change in touristic attractiveness. Leveraging largely underutilized data from several sources, we exploit a unique classification of Italian localities based on their main touristic assets and aggregate trends in foreign tourists' choices in a shift-share research design. Looking at all LLMs, we find a strong positive relationship between changes in attractiveness and changes in the local tourism-related economic activity, with a positive impact on tourism expenditure and tourism employment, but no effect on total employment. In high-unemployment LLMs, however, we find evidence of sizable total employment effects and large indirect effects generated through industries related to tourism and firms in the nontradable sector. We observe no effects on wage growth. We discuss our results in the context of the current policy debate on the role of tourism in the development of the local economy. |
| Keywords: | tourism, job growth, unemployment, local spillovers, heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R11 J21 R12 R23 Z30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11914 |
| By: | Antonicelli, Margareth; Drago, Carlo; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | This study examines income inequality across Italian regions by integrating instrumental variable panel data models, k-means clustering, and machine learning algorithms. Using econometric techniques, we address endogeneity and identify causal relationships influencing regional disparities. K-means clustering, optimized with the elbow method, classifies Italian regions based on income inequality patterns, while machine-learning models, including random forest, support vector machines, and decision tree regression, predict inequality trends and key determinants. Informal employment, temporary employment, and overeducation also play a major role in influencing inequality. Clustering results confirm a permanent North-South economic divide and the most disadvantaged regions are Campania, Calabria, and Sicily. Among the machine learning models, the highest income disparities prediction accuracy comes with the use of Random Forest Regression. The findings emphasize the necessity of education-focused and digitally based policies and reforms of the labor market in an effort to enhance economic convergence. The study portrays the use of a combination of econometric and machine learning methods in the analysis of regional disparities and proposes a solid framework of policy-making with the intention of curbing economic disparities in Italy. |
| Keywords: | Income Inequality, Regional Disparities, Machine Learning, Labor Market, Digital Divide. |
| JEL: | C23 C38 C45 O15 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124910 |
| By: | Raahil Madhok; Frederik Noack; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Olivier Deschenes |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how agricultural production responds to the loss of agricultural labor during the process of urbanization and structural transformation. Using household microdata from India and exogenous variation in migration opportunities induced by urban income shocks, we show that agricultural households do not systematically replace lost labor with increased capital. Instead, they cultivate less land and lower their use of agricultural technology, reducing crop production. Resulting changes in land and crop prices induce non-migrant households to expand agricultural investments and production. In aggregate, market adaptation mitigates over three-fourths of the direct agricultural losses from urbanization. Spatial reorganization moves food production from land near urban areas toward more remote areas with lower emigration. |
| JEL: | J43 O13 O15 Q15 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33854 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Psacharopoulos, George |
| Abstract: | The evidence underscores the need to shift attention from school attainment to actual learning. While the average global return to an additional year of schooling is about 10 percent, a one standard deviation increase in test scores raises earnings by 15 percent. Studies show that including direct measures of skills reduces the estimated return to schooling, revealing the stronger role of quality. These findings suggest that education policy should prioritize learning outcomes, not just years in school, to more accurately reflect the economic value of education. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education, cognitive skills, earnings |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1616 |
| By: | Slichter, Erin |
| Abstract: | This report presents lessons learned and tools for engaging youth in transportation planning in Oakland, California. Youth are disenfranchised from the transportation planning process, although their mobility is more affected than adults’ mobility by the quality of transportation networks, and, as a result, they have unique expertise that is valuable to transportation planning. In addition to giving planners access to youth expertise, engaging with youth presents an opportunity for the Oakland Department of Transportation (OakDOT) to build mutually beneficial relationships, civic capacity, and trust between city government and the next generation. The report is in three parts. First, I analyze observations of an in-person community design workshop and several online engagement methods for a transportation planning project in a disinvested neighborhood. I find that the methods observed, when employed on their own, are incongruous with OakDOT’s goals to build trust and a shared mobility agenda among Oakland’s communities because they don’t foster an impactful dialogue about transportation and related neighborhood concerns. Second, I distill key findings from seven semi-structured interviews with practitioners of youth civic engagement and two focus groups with a youth transportation advisory board and a civic youth commission. I summarize 12 key findings in four categories: universally applicable learnings, engaging youth in school curriculum, working with community partners, and youth advisory boards and commissions. Third, I develop two youth engagement tools to be incorporated into OakDOT’s standard operating procedure for community outreach: a matrix of 12 youth engagement strategies, and a template for planning youth engagement strategies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transportation planning, Planning methods, Public participation, Youth |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5bv9h1nm |
| By: | Newman, Joshua; Lang, Michaela; Mintrom, Michael; Graycar, Adam; Lawson, Julie; Dodson, Jago |
| Abstract: | What this research is about: this research explores how changes to government administrative structures and processes affect housing policy in Australia. It outlines what can be done to reduce some of the negative impacts of these changes. Why this research is important: the allocation of responsibility for areas of public policy is often called 'machinery of government'. While some Australian portfolios have remained stable over long periods, housing policy has been governed by various organisational units across the federal and state governments. Policy makers need to understand the effects of machinery of government changes, particularly in housing where debates about housing policy goals are ongoing. |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:am4jy_v1 |
| By: | Ortega, Josué; Ziegler, Gabriel; Arribillaga, R. Pablo; Zhao, Geng |
| Abstract: | The Deferred Acceptance (DA) mechanism can generate inefficient placements. Although Pareto-dominant mechanisms exist, it remains unclear which and how many students could improve their DA assignment. We characterize the set of unimprovable students and show that it includes those unassigned or matched with their least preferred schools. Nevertheless, by proving that in large markets DA's envy digraph contains a unique giant strongly connected component, we establish that almost all students are improvable, and furthermore, they can benefit simultaneously via disjoint trading cycles. Our findings reveal both the pervasiveness of DA's inefficiency and the remarkable effectiveness of Pareto-dominant mechanisms in addressing it, regardless of the specific mechanism chosen. |
| Keywords: | unimprovable students, school choice, random markets |
| JEL: | C78 D47 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qmsrps:202505 |
| By: | Ge, Teng Ge (Oxford Brookes Business School, Oxford Brookes University); Moghaddasi Kelishomi, Ali (School of Business, Loughborough University) |
| Abstract: | Rising income inequality poses significant challenges to housing affordability. Using a general equilibrium search model with heterogeneous buyers and sellers, this study explores the relationship between income inequality and housing market outcomes. Our theoretical framework unveils three distinct equilibria: affordable (integrated), pooled (partially segregated), and vertical (fully segregated). We demonstrate that a mean-preserving increase in income inequality leads the market to transition from an affordable matching equilibrium to a vertically segmented one, passing through a region of multiple equilibria where small shifts in fundamentals can generate large, discontinuous changes in market outcomes. Similar market dynamics are predicted by increasing the proportion of rich buyers. Through the externality related to the composition of sellers in the market, poor buyers are worse off and rich buyers are better off as the market transitions from affordable to vertical equilibria. Leveraging Chinese data, we illustrate the model’s applicability to real-world scenarios. Our findings have important policy implications, such as progressive taxation and redistribution, targeted affordable housing policies, and policy signalling, for addressing housing affordability challenges in an era of rising income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Income Inequality; Affordable Housing; Housing Price; Search and Matching JEL Classification: C78, D31, R13, R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:753 |
| By: | Berg, Tobias; Haselmann, Rainer |
| Abstract: | The European financial system faces significant risks from excessive bank lending to the real estate sector. Historical trends show a strong link between real estate credit booms and banking crises. Current data indicate that real estate loans constitute a substantial share of banks' corporate loan portfolios, with varying risk levels across countries. Key drivers include expansionary ECB policies and regulatory incentives favouring mortgage lending. Strengthening oversight, improving data collection, and adjusting regulations are essential for financial stability. This document was provided/prepared by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the ECON Committee. |
| Keywords: | Real Estate Landing, Banking Crisis, Financial Stability |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:319064 |
| By: | Giovanni Abbiati (University of Brescia); Erich Battistin (University of Maryland); Paola Monti (Rodolfo Debenedetti Foundation); Paolo Pinotti (paolo.pinotti@unibocconi.it) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a labor market integration program that fast-tracked asylum seekers into the Italian labor market through personalized job mentoring, placement assistance, and on-the-job training. Leveraging randomized assignment across reception centers and individual-level administrative records, we find effects on employment rates of 10 percentage points, or 30% over the baseline, over a 18-month period. The program also improved job quality through increased access to fixed-term and open-ended contracts. Subsidized internships were a critical pathway to transitioning participants into standard employment. Survey data indicate that these effects reflect a net increase in employment, rather than a shift from informal to formal jobs. We also document broader benefits on socioeconomic integration, including language proficiency and social networks with native Italians. |
| Keywords: | Asylum Seekers, Job Mentoring, Labor Market Integration, SocioeconomicIntegration |
| JEL: | C93 D04 F22 I38 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2512 |
| By: | Dolislager, Michael; Belton, Ben; Reardon, Thomas; Awokuse, Titus; Ignowski, Liz; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Saravi, Babak; Tschirley, David |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to bring concepts from economic geography and human geography into closer dialogue and apply them to the analysis of food systems. We analyze temporal and spatial patterns of diet trans formation in Bangladesh using data from nationally representative household surveys. We conceptualize diet transformation as a ‘triangle’ comprised of three elements (food purchases, diet diversification, and processed food consumption), influenced by four conditioners (time, income, non-farm employment, and space). We find that: (1) Diets are converging over time and space. food purchases, non-staples, and processed foods occupy high shares of food consumption value, irrespective of urban or rural location. Controlling for income, rural landless households and households in urban areas have very similar diets. Households in ‘peripheral’ and ‘non-peripheral’ rural areas experience similar levels of diet transformation. (2) Food purchases and processed food consumption are conditioned mainly by non-farm employment (NFE). (3) Diet diversification is positively associated with income, but not with NFE or land ownership. We characterize the spatial convergence of diets as an outcome of ‘time-space compression’ (the accelerating volume and velocity of economic and social transactions resulting from advances in transport and communications technology), and the distinct form of peri-urbanization under conditions of extremely high population density found in Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | diet; rural urban relations; food systems; household surveys; food prices; food consumption; off-farm employment; economic geography; Bangladesh; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprpp:159534 |
| By: | Autor, David H (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Dorn, David; Hanson, Gordon H.; Jones, Maggie R.; Setzler, Bradley |
| Abstract: | This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors such as medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7rfae_v1 |
| By: | Dou, Jialu (University of Pittsburgh); Gihleb, Rania (University of Pittsburgh); Giuntella, Osea (University of Pittsburgh); Lonsky, Jakub (University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of California’s SB 328, the first statewide mandate delaying school start times for middle and high schools, on adolescent sleep, mental health, and academic outcomes. Using YRBS, ATUS, SEDA, and SAT data, we apply difference-in-differences and matched DID methods. SB 328 led to significant improvements in sleep duration and academic performance. We find suggestive mental health benefits, though estimates are imprecise, and substantial heterogeneity in effects, with stronger gains among boys and Hispanic students across both sleep and academic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Mental Health, Sleep, School Start Times, Academic Achievement |
| JEL: | I10 I20 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17930 |
| By: | Randall Akee; Maggie R. Jones; Emilia Simeonova |
| Abstract: | Tribal lands in the U.S. have historically experienced some of the worst economic conditions in the nation. We review some existing research on the effect of American Indian tribal casinos on various measures of local economic development. This is an industry that began in the early 1990s and currently generates more than $40 billion annually. We also review the state of the literature on the effects of casino operations on communities in or adjacent to tribal areas. Using a new dataset linking individual and enterprise-level data longitudinally, this study examines the industry- and location-specific impacts of tribal casino operations. We focus in particular on the employment of American Indians. We document positive flows from unemployment and non-casino geographies to work in sectors related to casino operations. Tribal casinos differ from other standard place-based economic development projects in that they are focused on a single industry; we discuss these differences and note that some of the positive spillover effects may be similar to other, more standard place-based policies. Finally, we discuss additional and open-ended questions for future research on this topic. |
| JEL: | J20 O2 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33744 |
| By: | Thomas Ginn (Center for Global Development); Harrison Tang (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Policy for urban refugees in Kenya and Uganda is rarely at the forefront of national discussions, leaving important gaps that could potentially be addressed with engagement from civil society. Based on a series of key informant interviews, this policy paper provides a stocktake of recent shifts in policies, legislation, and practices impacting urban refugees in both countries since 2022. We document several changes, most notably the inclusion of urban refugees in Kenya’s national social security scheme and in local government councils in Kampala, but these initiatives are yet to be scaled. We recommend that organizations advocating on behalf of urban refugees focus directly on access to documentation and, more broadly, prioritize concrete objectives that are achievable under current law. |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:358 |
| By: | Marques Anabela (European Commission - JRC); Lelli Francesco; Molica Francesco (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the spatial patterns associated with large-scale relocation events in the European Union. It examines both relocation within national borders and delocalisation across countries, using data from 2002 to 2023 at the NUTS2 level. The study draws on Eurofoundâs European Restructuring Monitor (ERM) dataset and applies Probit and Poisson regression models to identify key regional characteristics linked to these events. The findings suggest that cost efficiency plays a central role in driving both types of relocation. Regions with greater access to Cohesion Policy funds tend to experience fewer internal relocations, while a higher availability of State aid is associated with a lower incidence of cross-border delocalisations. The analysis also indicates that manufacturing sectors - particularly electronics, automotive, and computer industries - are most frequently affected, likely due to the nature of their production processes. Moreover, such relocation dynamics appear more dominant in more developed regions, possibly due to the cost advantages offered by less developed regions. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202503 |
| By: | Enrique Martinez-Garcia; Efthymios Pavlidis |
| Abstract: | We investigate the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, our method leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values. By applying recursive least-squares and quantile-based unit root tests to cumulative expectational errors, we uncover novel evidence of speculative dynamics at the aggregate level and across broad demographic and socioeconomic groups. A date-stamping exercise reveals widespread exuberance in the second half of the 2010s, which paused before the pandemic recession and resurfaced amid the subsequent housing boom in 2021. For the Covid-19 period, we document notable differences in the timing of exuberance between observed house prices and survey-based indicators—a finding that underscores the importance of controlling for fundamentals when identifying speculative behavior. A complementary analysis using the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborates the baseline results. Overall, our findings highlight the value of survey data for monitoring housing markets. |
| Keywords: | U.S. housing market, rational bubbles, consumer demographics, right-tailed recursive unit root tests;, quantile autoregressions |
| JEL: | C12 C22 G10 R30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:423482817 |
| By: | Johannes Buggle (University of Innsbruck); Max Deter (Max Deter Berlin School of Economics, University of Potsdam, CEPA); Martin Lange (ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how network ties between local social leaders influenced the diffusion of mass protests in an autocracy. We focus on the Protestant Church and the Peaceful Revolution in East Germany. To quantify the role of leader networks in protest diffusion, we compile biographical records of over 1, 600 Protestant pastors, including their employment and education histories. Our findings reveal that network connections led to an increase in protest diffusion by up to 4.9 percentage points in a given week. Moreover, we highlight the importance of network centrality, pastors as information bridges, and the interaction with preexisting grievances and repression. |
| Keywords: | autocracy, religion, protests, networks, leaders |
| JEL: | D72 D74 N44 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:87 |
| By: | Enrique Martínez García; Efthymios Pavlidis |
| Abstract: | We investigate the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, our method leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values. By applying recursive least-squares and quantile-based unit root tests to cumulative expectational errors, we uncover novel evidence of speculative dynamics at the aggregate level and across broad demographic and socioeconomic groups. A date-stamping exercise reveals widespread exuberance in the second half of the 2010s, which paused before the pandemic recession and resurfaced amid the subsequent housing boom in 2021. For the Covid-19 period, we document notable differences in the timing of exuberance between observed house prices and survey-based indicators—a finding that underscores the importance of controlling for fundamentals when identifying speculative behavior. A complementary analysis using the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborates the baseline results. Overall, our findings highlight the value of survey data for monitoring housing markets. |
| Keywords: | U.S. housing markets; rational bubbles; consumer demographics; right-tailed recursive unit root tests; quantile autoregressions |
| JEL: | C12 C22 G10 R30 |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:100005 |
| By: | Chomali, Laura |
| Abstract: | Household chores, particularly those related to food—such as meal preparation and grocery shopping—continue to reflect significant gender disparities. Supermarkets, by reducing the distance between consumers and food purchases while leveraging economies of scale to offer affordable and diverse options, are often associated with food security. However, it remains unclear how the establishment of these businesses impacts their surroundings, especially in comparison to other security measures, such as addressing crime. This study examines how the operating hours and proximity of supermarkets affect local crime levels in Chicago, USA, over a one-year period (September 2023–August 2024). By combining three georeferenced datasets from the Chicago Police Department, Google Maps, and weather information to create a database and applying three negative binomial regression models. Results indicate that open supermarkets are generally linked to slightly lower crime rates, though this effect fluctuates throughout the day—reducing crime in early hours but increasing it during peak periods. While proximity alone shows no strong correlation with crime, open supermarkets exhibit a localized deterrent effect. |
| Keywords: | Crime, operating hours, supermarket, supermarket proximity |
| JEL: | D0 H0 R0 R00 |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124888 |
| By: | Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Wang, Chunbei |
| Abstract: | Since 2012, DACA has provided deportation relief and work authorization to immigrants brought to the U.S. as children. This study examines how legal and political uncertainty, triggered by the Trump administration's 2017 announcement to end the program, affected recipients' economic and social outcomes. Using difference-in-differences and event study methods, we find that gains in education, health, and geographic mobility largely persisted, while employment and income benefits eroded, particularly in nonsanctuary and high-enforcement states. However, strong local DACA networks helped buffer these losses. The results underscore how policy uncertainty can erode some gains while others persist in more supportive environments. |
| Keywords: | DACA, undocumented immigrants, Trump, employment, health, education |
| JEL: | J12 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1617 |
| By: | Miriam Manchin; Alex Newnham; Elena Nikolova |
| Abstract: | We study how pre-industrial climate risk during 1500-1800 influenced historical bilateral inward migration and present-day international migration stocks in Europe. Using high-resolution data, we find that one standard deviation increase in historical precipitation decreases the share of today’s migrants in a given location by 0.48 percentage points and also negatively influences historical migration flows. The results only hold in historically rural locations and are driven by climate variability during growing season, suggesting that climate risk affected migration through agriculture. Our findings suggest that the persistent effect of historical climate risk on current migration patterns is through differences in historical prosperity. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Climate Risk, Historical Migration |
| JEL: | F22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:503 |
| By: | Bastian Wei{\ss}enburger; Lukas Karkossa; Annegret Stephan; Russell McKenna |
| Abstract: | Transporting hydrogen using pipelines is becoming increasingly relevant in the energy system, yet current cost estimates typically rely on simplistic approaches that overlook region-specific characteristics, leading to potential underestimations of costs. This paper examines hydrogen pipeline costs by incorporating regional geographical factors, such as land use, topography and existing infrastructure, together with political-economic factors represented through country-specific weighted average costs of capital. Using a GIS-based model, we demonstrate that the regional levelized cost of transportation can vary by up to a factor of three. Comparing our approach with conventional ones based on uniform detour factors in an existing European energy system analysis framework shows substantial deviations in trade flows and highlights the relevance of this work. We provide cost and route data for 4, 900 potential global pipeline routes. Our findings yield valuable insights for further research and stakeholders when assessing the economic viability of hydrogen as a competitive energy carrier. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.01124 |
| By: | Songyun Shi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Silvia Loi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Objectives Despite often having better health at arrival, and at young ages, there is evidence that immigrants age at a faster pace than non-immigrants over the life course. One potential mediator in the relationship between migration background and health deterioration is loneliness. This study examines the direct impact of migration-related factors on mental and physical health trajectories, as well as their indirect effects through loneliness in the German context. Methods Using data from the 2012–2020 German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we apply a parallel process latent growth curve model (PPM) with mediation analysis to examine the long-term impact of migration background and age at migration on physical and mental health trajectories. We also explore the mediating role of loneliness in this relationship. The analysis is stratified by gender. Results Loneliness fully mediates the relationship between migration background and mental health, as immigrants are more likely to experience loneliness, which in turn leads to worse mental health. Immigrants who moved to Germany after age 18 are more likely to experience loneliness, resulting in poorer mental health. This mechanism is particularly pronounced among women. Discussion Loneliness contributes to mental health disparities between immigrants and non-immigrants. Women who migrated after age 18 are particularly vulnerable. This study presents an innovative approach to examining the mechanisms behind health disparities by migration background. Interventions targeted at reducing loneliness may help to reduce health disparities between immigrants and non-immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Germany, longitudinal analysis, mental health, migrants |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-015 |
| By: | Daniel Cunha; Mr. Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu; Pedro Juca Maciel |
| Abstract: | We explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performance of tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, we examine how these cycles affect potential output growth and its drivers—investment and employment—and estimate the short-run elasticity of tourism growth to economic activity. Our findings reveal that the long-term influence of recessions are less persistent in SDS than in larger emerging markets, as tourist-dependent economies experience faster recoveries from recessions. Moreover, we use Cabo Verde as a natural experiment to assess the short-term relation of tourism on growth and found that tourism's short-run elasticity to growth is around 0.4 over 12 months, with limited spillovers to non-tourism areas. |
| Keywords: | Small Developing States; Tourism; Growth |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/103 |
| By: | Julien CALAS; Lisa Beyer |
| Abstract: | This policy brief provides feedback on a new rapid approach to identifying (i) climate and natural risks, (ii) potential Nature based Solutions (NbS) to address those risks, and (iii) strategies to implement these solutions.Many cities around the world lack data on flooding, heat island, and ecosystems degradation risks, as well as information on the natural ecosystem solutions that can address these challenges with action in policy reform and landscape interventions. The new method of this Strategic NbS Framework integrates globally available datasets with local data to evaluate areas of a given city that are susceptible to extreme flooding and heat, as well as opportunities to expand existing natural spaces and create corridors of ecological continuity.The goal is to provide cities with a planning framework that they can follow and interpret within their own context.This framework was tested during a joint research program in Kigali (Rwanda) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia). The recommendations are the direct result of feedback from the research activities themselves which enabled the implementation of the approach in the two cities in close consultation with local institutions and stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | Éthiopie, Rwanda |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr18152 |
| By: | Nobuya FUKUGAWA |
| Abstract: | Universities, embedded within regional innovation systems, promote entrepreneurship through intermediary functions, including resource provision, consulting, and networking. Drawing on perspectives from entrepreneurial ecosystems and innovation intermediation, this study examines how the effectiveness of these university functions varies according to regional innovation contexts and institutional types. The analysis integrates comprehensive panel data from 1, 027 universities (2019–2023) with detailed patent and basic research funding databases. Fixed-effects negative binomial regression models with lagged independent variables are employed to control for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity and to mitigate simultaneity bias. The results show that basic research capacity is consistently and positively associated with startup formation, highlighting its foundational role in academic entrepreneurship. However, the effects of other support functions are highly context-dependent: human resource and knowledge service linkages promote startup activity only when universities are embedded within innovation agglomerations. Investor linkages show no significant overall effect but become positively associated with startup formation in peripheral regions where access to capital is limited. These findings underscore the need for differentiated, ecosystem-sensitive intermediation strategies and highlight the importance of aligning university support mechanisms with the structure and maturity of surrounding innovation environments. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25044 |
| By: | Wang, Yifan; Wang, Chunbei; Holmes, Chanita |
| Abstract: | Immigration continues to shape labor market dynamics, yet its gender-specific effects remain understudied. This study revisits the Mariel Boatlift, when about 125, 000 Cubans arrived in Miami in 1980, increasing the local labor supply by 7%, to examine its impact on native women's labor market outcomes. While previous studies have mainly focused on wage effects among low-skilled male workers and found limited effects, the consequences for native women have been largely overlooked. This research fills this gap by examining how the influx of low-skilled immigrants affected native women's labor force participation, unemployment, wages, and hours worked. Using data from the March Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) from 1976 to 1993, and applying the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) method, we find substantial declines in labor force participation and notable increase in unemployment among native women, with both low- and high-educated women experiencing adverse effects. These findings provide new evidence that immigration shocks can have broad and heterogeneous impacts across genders, complementing the literature that has largely found minimal labor market effects, particularly among men. |
| Keywords: | immigration, supply shock, labor force, native, gender, Mariel Boatlift, Synthetic Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | J15 J16 J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1613 |
| By: | Degenhardt, Felix (University of Potsdam); Nimczik, Jan Sebastian (European School of Management and Technology (ESMT)) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether gig jobs in online food delivery (OFD) are a stepping stone for refugees entering the Austrian labor market. Our identification strategy combines the quasi-random assignment of refugees to Austrian regions with the expansion of gig firms across the country. The local availability of OFD jobs at the time of access to the labor market initially accelerates job finding among refugees. Subsequently, however, gig workers remain in low-paid, unstable jobs with low career prospects, while the employment rate of refugees without gig opportunities catches up. The local availability of gig jobs negatively affects human capital investments and job search behavior, even among refugees outside the gig economy. |
| Keywords: | employment restrictions, refugees, gig work, labor market integration |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J81 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17928 |
| By: | Santanu Chakrabarti |
| Abstract: | Indian Knowledge System (IKS) refers to the traditional knowledge systems and practices that originated in India, encompassing various fields such as Ayurveda, yoga, astrology, and traditional medicine. It includes various disciplines such as: Traditional Sciences (Ayurveda, Yoga, Jyotish and Vastu sastra); Philosophical and Spiritual Traditions (Vedanta, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikhism); Artistic and Cultural Expressions (Indian Classical Music, Indian Classical Dances, Natya Shastra and Visual arts); Mathematics and Astronomy (Vedic mathematics and Ancient Indian astronomy); Language and Literature (Sanskrit language and literature and regional languages and literature). Teacher education field trying to revamp its courses according to the needs of NEP 2020 has much to integrate from traditional Indian system. In order to fulfil the goals of wholistic development of the child, traditional fields of yoga, philosophy, Ayurveda and jyotish hold much significance. The present paper is focussing on these areas and their contribution in child development so that proper integration aspects can be thought of. Key words: IKS, Teacher Education, IKS Aspects and Integration Strategies |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2025-52-01 |
| By: | Bruno Albuquerque; Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti; Nanyu Chen; Melih Firat |
| Abstract: | The growing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation raises important but underexplored questions about how both monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policies (MaPP) affect lending and the real economy. Using syndicated loan data, we examine the joint impact of MP and MaPP shocks on credit supply to nonfinancial firms. Our findings show that nonbanks act as shock absorbers, cushioning firms—particularly those with existing nonbank relationships—from policy tightening. We also find that these shocks drive credit away from weaker banks toward nonbanks, raising concerns about credit quality. Finally, we provide evidence that MaPPs on banks can lead them, especially weaker banks, to shift lending to nonbanks and away from nonfinancial corporations. This allows nonbanks to expand their role in corporate credit markets. Overall, our findings highlight that tighter MP and MaPP may unintentionally push credit intermediation into a sector largely outside the regulatory perimeter, posing new financial stability risks. |
| Keywords: | Housing booms; Housing busts; Credit booms; Macroprudential policies |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/096 |
| By: | Moloney, Kitty (Central Bank of Ireland); O'Gorman, Paraic (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | In this Note, we focus on non-bank lenders that lend almost exclusively to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector and are set up as Special Purpose Entities. These Property SPEs (PSPEs) are typically sponsored and financed by international financial intermediaries that engage in the private credit markets. They also rely on third party financing thatis highly concentrated in the European banking sector. PSPEs represent the majority of new lending by non-bank lenders to the CRE sector and they typically provide large loans to developers (€8.3mn average loan size). This activity benefits the domestic economy by deepening and widening the availability of credit to a supply-constrained property development sector. Increased sensitivity of domestic credit provision to international financial conditions, concentration risk, and exposure to opaque international private credit markets are key financial stability risks stemming from PSPEs. A reduction in credit supply from PSPEs could directly affect the real economy through the property market channel and indirectly through spillover effects to the broader financial system. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:1/fs/25 |
| By: | Luttmann, Alexander; Gaggero, Alberto A |
| Abstract: | When faced with capacity constraints, firms may moderate demand by increasing prices when demand is known to be high ex-ante (i.e., systematic peak-load pricing). In this article, we examine the extent and duration of systematic peak-load pricing in the days surrounding public holidays in the U.S. airline industry. Applying two-stage least squares techniques to a unique panel of over 18 million fares, we estimate travel premiums ranging from 4.3% to 83.1% in the days surrounding national holidays and from 2.7% to 34.7% in the days surrounding federal holidays. We also find that the duration of the peak-travel period is longer for national holidays and shorter for federal holidays. Examining heterogeneity in holiday peak-load pricing, we find some evidence that travel premiums during national holidays are larger on longer-distance routes, on routes to or from slot-controlled airports, on routes to leisure destinations, and on ultra-low-cost carriers. |
| Keywords: | advance-purchase discounts, airline pricing, price discrimination, systematic peak-load pricing |
| JEL: | D40 L11 L13 L93 R49 |
| Date: | 2024–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124818 |
| By: | Chigwe, Tabitha C. Nindi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the adoption of sustainable agricultural intensification practices— particularly cereal-legume intercropping—by smallholder farming households in Malawi. The focus of the study is on how spatial variation in key factors related to agricultural production and marketing influences farming households’ decision-making processes under risk. Separate analyses are done for six distinct agroecological zones in Malawi to evaluate how resource and market constraints affect farming households’ decisions to employ intercropping practices on their cropland and how the variations in these constraints have differing impacts on adoption of intercropping across different regions. This study provides valuable insights into the complexities of smallholder farming choices in diverse geographic contexts. |
| Keywords: | households; intercropping; smallholders; spatial analysis; sustainable agriculture; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:155279 |
| By: | Jan Goebel; Christian Krekel; Katrin Rehdanz |
| Abstract: | Most people consider parks important for their quality of life, yet systematic causal evidence is missing. We exploit exogenous variations in their use values to estimate causal effects. Using a representative household panel with precise geographical coordinates of households linked to satellite images of green spaces with a nationwide coverage, we employ a spatial difference-in-differences design, comparing within-individual changes between residents living close to a green space and those living further away. We exploit Covid-19 as exogenous shock. We find that green spaces raised overall life satisfaction while reducing symptoms of anxiety (feelings of nervousness and worry) and depression. There is also suggestive evidence for reduced loneliness. Given the number of people in their surroundings, a compensating-surplus calculation suggests that parks added substantial benefits during the period studied. |
| Keywords: | Parks, Green Spaces, Mental Health, Quasi-Natural Experiment, Compensating Surplus, Wellbeing |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2106 |
| By: | Martin Hodula; Lukas Pfeifer |
| Abstract: | The Czech Republic provides a unique setting to examine the effects of loan moratoria during the COVID-19 pandemic, as it combined broad-access legislative moratoria with stricter, eligibility-based bank moratoria. Using detailed loan-level data from the Czech mortgage market, we find that legislative moratoria were predominantly precautionary, addressing a wide range of borrowers, whereas bank moratoria were primarily utilized by higher-risk borrowers facing solvency challenges. Post-moratoria, we observe limited materialization of credit risk, which was nearly twice as high for bank moratoria compared to legislative moratoria. Stricter borrower-based regulations (LTV, DTI, and DSTI limits) implemented prior to the pandemic were associated with lower moratoria uptake and reduced post-moratoria arrears. These findings underscore the effectiveness of combining universal legislative moratoria with targeted bank measures to balance immediate economic relief and long-term financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Borrower-based measures, COVID-19 economic policy, credit risk mitigation, loan moratoria, mortgage arrears |
| JEL: | E44 G21 G28 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/1 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic mean field game model to explain the emergence of heavy-tailed city size distributions and persistent urban inequality. Each city optimizes intertemporal consumption and investment in infrastructure to maximize utility from both consumption and population scale. City size follows a stochastic process with investment-driven drift, while productivity evolves as a mean-reverting diffusion. We derive the equilibrium using the Lasry–Lions Master Equation and simulate the resulting stationary distribution. The model generates high Gini coefficients and Pareto-like upper tails, consistent with Zipf’s law and Gibrat’s law. These patterns arise endogenously through capital accumulation, productivity shocks, and scale feedbacks, offering a unified framework to understand urban size inequality. |
| Keywords: | City size distribution, Zipf's law, Gibrat's law, Mean field games, Urban inequality, Capital accumulation |
| Date: | 2025–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:757 |
| By: | Foerster, Kai; Ryan, Ellen; Scheid, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first study of climate risk pricing in euro area commercial real estate markets. We pay particular attention to changes in risk pricing over time, as a sudden market shift may significantly amplify the financial stability and macroeconomic implications of these risks. We find evidence of investors applying a penalty to buildings exposed to physical risk and that this penalty has increased significantly over the 2007-2023 period we study, particularly for properties exposed to risks associated with climate change. This change in pricing appears to have occurred in an orderly manner, with no implications for liquidity in the market for high risk buildings. In contrast, while pricing of transition risk has also increased over the period studied, towards the end of our sample the market response to transition risk appears to be playing out via market liquidity. This indicates that older buildings - which are more exposed to transition risks - may already be at risk of becoming “stranded assets”. JEL Classification: R33, Q51, G2 |
| Keywords: | climate change, commercial real estate, financial stability |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253059 |
| By: | Mori, Tomoya; Wrona, Jens |
| Abstract: | To test the localized tastes hypothesis, we use historical dialect similarity as an instrument to predict the persistent component of regional taste differences. Analyzing wholesale markets for fruits and vegetables in Japan, we find that predicted taste differences have a strong, statistically significant effect, explaining approximately 9% of the mean volatility in law-of-one-price deviations. Our findings are robust across extensive validity checks, which scrutinize and relax our exclusion restriction, distinguishing between various sources of endogeneity, and confirm our baseline results based on alternative instruments, which exploit exogenous differences in agro-climatic endowments. |
| Keywords: | Market Integration, Tastes, Culture, Dialects |
| JEL: | D12 F15 N75 Q11 R22 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:318373 |
| By: | Fitch-Polse, Dillon |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1gz655hn |
| By: | Gabriel Leonard; Donald P. Morgan; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | One criticism of overdraft credit is that the fees seem borne disproportionately by low-income, Black, and Hispanic households. To investigate this concern, we surveyed around 1, 000 households about their overdraft activity. Like critics, we find that these groups do tend to overdraft more often. However, when we control for respondents’ credit scores along with their socioeconomic characteristics, we discover that only their credit score predicts overdraft activity. While it’s not altogether surprising that credit constrained households overdrew more often, it’s noteworthy that socioeconomic characteristics did not help in predicting overdrafts. This more textured picture of overdraft activity helps inform the ongoing debate about overdraft credit and its users. |
| Keywords: | overdrafts; Consumer lending; overdraft credit |
| JEL: | G5 |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:100017 |
| By: | Germain, Enomy |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between natural disasters and emigration from Haiti to the United States, focusing on the moderating role of political instability. Haiti is one of the most disaster-prone and politically fragile countries in the Western Hemisphere, experiencing an average of 3.1 disasters per year between 1990 and 2020. Drawing on thirty years of national-level time series data, this study employs a linear Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model with interaction terms to test whether political instability amplifies the migration response to disasters. The results reveal a strong and statistically significant link between disaster frequency and emigration flows. Moreover, this relationship is significantly intensified in years of heightened political instability, suggesting that weak institutional capacity compounds the push factors associated with natural shocks. While traditional migration models emphasize economic drivers, this study shows that political stability plays a crucial role in shaping emigration outcomes. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy responses that address both environmental risks and governance challenges in disaster-prone settings. |
| Date: | 2025–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ac7bv_v1 |
| By: | Pia Hüttl |
| Abstract: | This paper provides causal evidence on the effect of credit crunches on political polarisation. Combining data on bank-firm connections and electoral outcomes at the city-level during the 2008-2014 Spanish financial crisis, I construct an instrument for unemployment based on the city-level exposure to (foreign) weak banks. I find that a 10% increase in (instrumented) local unemployment rates leads to radical parties gaining approximately one percentage point more in vote share relative to centrist parties. This suggests that credit contractions do not only impact firm performance and economic output, but also shape political polarisation through the channel of economic uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | polarisation, Financial Crisis, Instrumental Variable Strategy, Spanish Elections, Credit Supply Shock, Real Effects |
| JEL: | G01 P16 D72 P43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2120 |
| By: | Larivière, Jérôme |
| Abstract: | This study uses rich Canadian census and administrative data to examine the causal ef- fects of early academic ranking on educational diagnoses and long-term mental well-being. Leveraging within-classroom variation among students with similar abilities, I find that mov- ing from the 0–5th to the 10–15th percentile reduces learning disability diagnoses by 34% and mental health conditions by 16%. Conversely, shifting from the 85–90th to the 95–100th percentile increases gifted diagnoses by 27%, showing that teacher perceptions and behaviors are influenced by relative performance. Similar rank variation also lower adult mental health challenges by 12% and boost learning-related self-esteem by 21%. |
| Keywords: | Academic Rank; Educational Diagnosis; Rank Effect; Teacher Bias |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124861 |
| By: | Hanson, Gordon H.; Rodrik, Dani; Sandhu, Rohan |
| Abstract: | Place-based policy in the United States comprises a wide range of government programs that are spread across federal, state, and local agencies and that rely on public, private, and nonprofit organizations for policy design and implementation. We document how loosely connected vertical policy supply chains distribute resources from federal and state governments to recipients at the local level. The apparatus is the product of 150 years of policy innovation, both from the top down, with the federal government periodically launching major initiatives whose place-based impacts tend to be long-lived (even if the specific policies are not), and from the bottom up, with state and local actors engineering their own policy solutions, many of which have endured and now constitute modern policy practice. That practice includes not just tax incentives for business investment, the subject of most economic research on place-based policy, but support for community redevelopment, workforce development, small business promotion, technological innovation, and regional planning and strategy. Intermediary organizations that connect government agencies to local recipients are central to resource delivery. Because they tend to be created, funded, and (or) run by non-state actors, there appears to be wide geographic variation in organizational capacity for place-based policy. Understanding the causes and consequences of that variation is needed for a full accounting of how place-based policy works in the U.S. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2bg7a_v1 |
| By: | Zongrong Li; Haiyang Li; Yifan Yang; Siqin Wang; Yingxin Zhu |
| Abstract: | Wildfires in urbanized regions, particularly within the wildland-urban interface, have significantly intensified in frequency and severity, driven by rapid urban expansion and climate change. This study aims to provide a comprehensive, fine-grained evaluation of the recent 2025 Los Angeles wildfire's impacts, through a multi-source, tri-environmental framework in the social, built and natural environmental dimensions. This study employed a spatiotemporal wildfire impact assessment method based on daily satellite fire detections from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap, and high-resolution dasymetric population modeling to capture the dynamic progression of wildfire events in two distinct Los Angeles County regions, Eaton and Palisades, which occurred in January 2025. The modelling result estimated that the total direct economic losses reached approximately 4.86 billion USD with the highest single-day losses recorded on January 8 in both districts. Population exposure reached a daily maximum of 4, 342 residents in Eaton and 3, 926 residents in Palisades. Our modelling results highlight early, severe ecological and infrastructural damage in Palisades, as well as delayed, intense social and economic disruptions in Eaton. This tri-environmental framework underscores the necessity for tailored, equitable wildfire management strategies, enabling more effective emergency responses, targeted urban planning, and community resilience enhancement. Our study contributes a highly replicable tri-environmental framework for evaluating the natural, built and social environmental costs of natural disasters, which can be applied to future risk profiling, hazard mitigation, and environmental management in the era of climate change. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.01721 |