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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Willem Sijp |
| Abstract: | This report applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to regional house price indexes to uncover dominant trends in Australia's housing market. Regions are assigned PCA-derived scores that reveal which underlying market forces are most influential in each area, enabling broad classification of local housing markets. The approach highlights where price movements tend to align across regions, even those geographically distant. The three most dominant trends are described in detail and, together with the regional scores, provide objective tools for policymakers, researchers, and real estate professionals. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.18332 |
| By: | Tomoya Mori (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Daisuke Murakami (Institute of Statistical Mathematics) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a statistical model that integrates economic agglomeration theory and power-law distributions of city sizes to project future population distribution on 1-km grid cells. We focus on Japan - a country at the forefront of rapid population decline. Drawing on official population projections and empirical patterns from past urban evolution in response to the development of high-speed rail and highway networks, we examine how ongoing demographic contraction and expected reductions in distance frictions may reshape urban geography. Our analysis suggests that urban economies will consolidate around fewer and larger cities, each of which will experience a flattening of population density as the decentralization of urban populations accelerates, while rural areas are expected to experience further depopulation as a result of these spatial and economic shifts. By identifying sustainable urban cores capable of anchoring regional economies, our model provides a framework for policymakers to manage population decline while maintaining resilience through optimized infrastructure and resource allocation focused on these key urban centers. |
| Keywords: | Population decline, Cities, Agglomeration, Sustainability, Distance friction, Power law |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1117 |
| By: | Gianandrea Lanzara; Matteo Santacesaria |
| Abstract: | Are there multiple equilibria in the spatial economy? This paper develops a unified framework that integrates systems of cities and regional models to address this question within a general geographic space. A key feature is the endogenous formation of commuting areas linking a continuum of residential locations to a finite set of potential business districts. Using tools from computational geometry and shape optimization, we derive sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of spatial equilibria. For plausible parameter values, urban location is indeterminate, but, conditional on an urban system, city sizes are uniquely determined. The framework reconciles seemingly conflicting empirical findings on the role of geography and scale economies in shaping the spatial economy. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.21819 |
| By: | César Ducruet; Barbara Polo Martin |
| Abstract: | Based on untapped data on vessel movements and urban population, this paper investigates the changing relationship between ports and cities since the late 19th century. We refer to a number of models in maritime geography and history that converge about port-city spatial and functional disconnection. The principal results show that the average distance between ports and cities doubled over the period, from 4.9 km in 1880 to 10.1 km in 2020. While the correlation between vessel traffic and city size grew since 1880, it declined rapidly from 0.66 in 1946 to 0.33 in 2020. In turn, vessel traffic became more and more correlated with the size of city-regions, of which port and non-port. Such trends are differentiated across regions of the world, due to historical legacies and specific patterns of port hinterlands. |
| Keywords: | globalization; hinterlands; port city; maritime transport; regionalization |
| JEL: | R12 R40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-25 |
| By: | Elisabeth Tovar; Mathieu Bunel; Laetitia Tufféry; Marie-Noëlle Lefebvre |
| Abstract: | Discrimination in the rental housing market is a persistent issue, yet the mechanisms underlying biased decision-making remain insufficiently explored. While correspondence studies have extensively documented ethnic discrimination, they often fail to capture the full decision-making process or control for supply-side factors such as landlord preferences. In this multifactorial survey experiment, we asked 723 real estate students to rate 2, 169 tenant applications, manipulating both demand-side (origin signals, social status and pool competition ethnic mix) and supply-side (landlord preferences and property quality) factors. Our findings reveal that skin colour elicits stronger discrimination than name-based ethnic cues, and that high social status significantly moderates discrimination against minorities. Furthermore, landlord preferences play a crucial role in shaping real estate agents’ decisions, with discriminatory instructions amplifying biases. The study also highlights the role of competition effects, showing that discrimination is more pronounced when minority applicants compete against majority applicants. By shedding light on the interplay between applicant characteristics, market conditions, and decision-making processes, our study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of rental market discrimination and suggests avenues for policy interventions. |
| Keywords: | survey experiments, rental housing market, discrimination |
| JEL: | C83 C99 J15 R31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-24 |
| By: | Siwar Khelifa; Bruno Lanz; Marco Pecoraro |
| Abstract: | We exploit the 1990-2000 inflow of Yugoslav refugees to Geneva to examine two understudied yet policy-relevant integration mechanisms for refugee pupils: language support classes, provided prior to integration into regular classes, and sorting based on academic ability within regular classes. We find that a higher share of refugees in language support classes is associated with a lower probability of grade repetition for lower-achieving immigrant pupils of the same grade and school, but a higher probability for native pupils. Additionally, we find that grouping refugees with incumbents of similar academic ability improves the educational performance of higher-achieving incumbents and lower-achieving immigrants, while negatively affecting lower-achieving natives. Our findings offer novel insights into the trade-offs of refugee integration policies, emphasizing the need to balance support for refugee pupils with minimizing potential adverse effects on incumbent pupils. |
| Keywords: | Education, Refugees, Incumbent pupils, Peer effects |
| JEL: | H75 F22 I21 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-05 |
| By: | Antonie, Luiza; Inwood, Kris; Minns, Chris; Summerfield, Fraser |
| Abstract: | This paper uses linked Census records from 1871 to 1901 to compute intergenerational mobility for Canadian regions and census districts. The results reveal sharp differences in mobility over space: Ontario featured high relative and absolute mobility, Quebec low relative and absolute mobility, and the Maritimes low absolute mobility. Local differences in human capital endowments and labour market inequality are correlated with district mobility patterns but do not account for regional differences, where migration and structural change toward industry and services appear important. Comparing spatial patterns of Canadian mobility in the 19th century to today shows substantial changes for Quebec districts. |
| JEL: | J62 N31 |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126165 |
| By: | Vera Baye (University of Osnabrueck); Valeriya Dinger (University of Osnabrueck and Leeds University Business Schoo) |
| Abstract: | We empirically document deviations of residential real estate prices from fundamental values at the micro level and investigate their relationship with local bank lending growth during a period of unconventional monetary policy. Our findings indicate a positive relationship between credit growth and excessive price increases in real estate markets, with interest rate reductions further amplifying these credit-driven price distortions. Additionally, we provide evidence that banks' search-for-yield behavior explains the increase in lending, particularly among deposit-funded banks that experienced a squeeze of margins during the negative monetary policy rate period. This credit expansion, in turn, directly influences the real economy by fueling local housing markets. In our analysis, we exploit that the introduction of negative monetary policy rates affected banks differently depending on their ex-ante liquidity and relate micro-level real estate data to balance sheet information from locally operating banks and macroeconomic variables. |
| Keywords: | residential real estate prices, housing bubbles, bank lending, search-for-yield, micro data, negative interest rates |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0126 |
| By: | Oettinger, Sophia |
| Abstract: | This dissertation examines Latin America’s historical attempts to address urban housing precarity during the 1990s through market-based social housing policies, focusing on Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay. It assesses how these policies, shaped by national coalition- building challenges, historical social policy frameworks, and state capacities, failed to resolve housing issues. Despite advancements in housing studies, the dual nature of housing as both a social good and a commodity—along with its complex social, financial, and spatial connections within the capitalist economy—remains insufficiently understood. This research employs a Marxist-inspired perspective to explore the nuances and shortcomings of the post- Cold War mixed economy governance in Latin America, situated between economic developmentalism and political liberalisation. It revisits concepts of post-structural development deploying the notion of 'privatised Keynesianism.' Latin American governments, aiming to stimulate housing markets, exacerbated economic instability by subsidising debt-financed consumption of market-produced social housing. Contrary to optimistic expectations about the spillover effects of financial liberalisation, this approach led to increased household indebtedness and deteriorating housing conditions. The dissertation reveals how the shift to market-oriented social housing policies and overwhelming focus on macroeconomic demand stimulation, intensified the link between liberalised financial markets and housing beneficiaries. To avoid confronting the wealthy while addressing poverty, the new welfare regime rather relied on informal housing solutions, such as self-built homes and cooperative models, pointing to the inherent capitalist dichotomy between the right to housing and the right to the city. Those intricacies fundamentally altered state-market-citizen relations and the spatial dynamics of modern cities. |
| JEL: | R31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127153 |
| By: | Edwards, Wesley; Kurochkina, Tatiana; Gorescu, Gabriela |
| Abstract: | As school leaders and district human-capital managers struggle with persistent teacher shortages, policymakers nationally have created statutes deregulating teacher licensure/certification. In Texas, most K-12 districts can now hire uncertified teachers. This provides flexibility in school leader hiring practices, and likely expands applicant pools, yet more than one-third of all new teachers in recent years are uncertified. This quantitative study investigates the demographics, school characteristics, and retention/mobility outcomes of over 300, 000 teachers. We find that uncertified teachers have alarmingly low retention probabilities, and are clustered in schools serving mostly students of color and economically disadvantaged students. We discuss implications for policy as well as how our results contribute to literature/theory related to market deregulation and teacher careers. |
| Date: | 2025–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9ctws_v1 |
| By: | J. Vernon Henderson; Francisco Libano-Monteiro; Martina Manara; Guy Michaels; Tanner Regan |
| Abstract: | Urban planning has shaped cities for millennia, demarcating property rights and mitigating coordination failures, but its rigidities often conflict with market-driven development, which reflects preferences. Although planning is widespread in high-income countries, rapidly growing cities in the developing world are characterized by urban informality. Despite its importance, urban planning lacks an economic framework to evaluate planners' choices. This paper offers a starting framework and applies it to a flagship project in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, which partitioned greenfield land on the urban fringe into more than 36, 000 formal plots that people purchased and built homes on. To study this project, we assemble a novel dataset using administrative records, satellite imagery, and primary surveys. We develop and estimate a dynamic model in which planning design constrains the decisions of households of varying incomes to sort into formal areas. This model complements our reduced-form analysis, which uses within-neighborhood variation and spatial RD to study planning choices' effects. We find that the project secured property rights and access, raised land values relative to unplanned areas, and attracted highly educated owners. Within project areas, access to main paved roads, gridded layouts, and natural amenities are valued; plot development and public service provision have been slow; and the price elasticity of bare land with respect to plot size is -0.5. Counterfactual analysis using the model shows that while land value maximization involves the provision of larger plots, welfare maximization entails the provision of smaller plots to serve more lower-income people. |
| Keywords: | urban planning, economic development, Africa. |
| JEL: | R58 R31 O18 R14 O21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11860 |
| By: | Muñoz, Ercio |
| Abstract: | I provide estimates of intergenerational mobility (IGM) in education at a disaggregated geographic level for Chile, a country with high school-level stratification by socioeconomic status and a decentralized administration of public schools. I document wide variation across communes. Relative mobility is correlated to the number of doctors, the number of students per teacher, and earnings inequality. Using a LASSO, I find that the share of students enrolled in public schools, the number of students per teacher, population density, and municipal budget are the strongest predictors of IGM. I also document within-country variability in how parental education is associated with other children's outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Socioeconomic mobility;Geography;Intergenerational mobility in Education;Education |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14086 |
| By: | Ingrid Gould Ellen; Daniel Hartley; Jeffrey Lin; Wei You |
| Abstract: | We study the unintended effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plans developed by 26 states in the 1960s to address insurance redlining in urban neighborhoods. FAIR plans’ problematic features included prohibitions on considering environmental hazards in underwriting, mandatory insurer participation that diluted underwriting incentives, and payouts exceeding market values in declining areas. Using a triple-difference design comparing pre/post-FAIR periods, neighborhoods with/without likely FAIR access, and participating/nonparticipating states, we find that FAIR inadvertently led to significant housing disinvestment and accelerated declines in neighborhood population and income, with simultaneous increases in the Black population share. |
| Keywords: | Arson; Housing disinvestment; Moral hazard; Neighborhoods; Property Insurance |
| JEL: | G52 N92 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:99985 |
| By: | Theresa Daniel (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Department of Economics); Maximilian Maurice Gail (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Department of Economics); Phil-Adrian Klotz (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Germany’s nationwide 9-Euro-Ticket, a temporary almost fare-free transport ticket, on highway passenger traffic. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find a significant reduction of approximately 4.5%, primarily driven by decreased weekend traffic. Event study results also indicate considerable heterogeneity across time, federal states, and road types. A similar but more persistent effect is observed for the Deutschlandticket, the permanent successor to the 9-Euro-Ticket. However, our findings suggest that neither ticket has resulted in a lasting shift from private cars to public transport, especially among commuters. Hence, the overall efficiency of this measure remains uncertain, particularly in view of the high direct costs and the necessary investments required to improve Germany’s rail infrastructure in the near future. |
| Keywords: | Modal Shift, 9-Euro-Ticket, Deutschlandticket, Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | R48 R41 L91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202507 |
| By: | Sanny Boy Domingo Afable (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Megan Evans (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Kaarina Korhonen; Yana C. Vierboom (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Hill Kulu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Closer distance between parents and their children facilitates intergenerational contact and exchanges of support in later life. There are mixed narratives and evidence regarding the divergence—or convergence—of intergenerational proximity in ageing societies. In this study, we examine the trends and structural drivers of intergenerational distance and co-residence in a rapidly ageing high-income society. We analyse register data from Finland, a country commonly characterised by weak family ties and a strong social welfare system. Using fine-scale geographic units and real-world navigation data to compute travel times, we examine the proximity of parents aged 60-69 to their children aged 18+ from 2003 to 2017, specifically analysing trends in distance and co-residence between fathers and sons, fathers and daughters, mothers and sons, and mothers and daughters. We then decompose the contribution of changing sociodemographic composition of the population on changes in these outcomes. We find that while co-residence is low (10% with sons and 5% with daughters in 2017), more than half of Finnish parents live within 30 minutes by car journey to their nearest, non-coresident child, with parents living 5 minutes farther away from their daughters than their sons. From 2003 to 2017, the average distance to the nearest, non-coresident child increased by 10% to 19% or 2-5 minutes, with father-daughter distance showing the greatest increase. While this suggests that ageing parents and adult children are living farther apart, we find that compositional changes—including educational expansion and increased divorce rates among parents, as well as the decline in co-residence with sons—underlie this geographic divergence. |
| Keywords: | Finland, ageing, human geography, residential mobility, spatial distance |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-011 |
| By: | Kaya, Ayhan |
| Abstract: | Turkish migration to Western Europe, particularly Germany, has been driven by economic aspirations and socio-political conflicts. Since 2013, a new wave of highly skilled young Turks has migrated to Western states due to political instability. At the same time, a concerning trend emerging in Türkiye's marginalised urban areas is the co-radicalisation of Turkish citizens and refugees fuelled by political and socio-economic tensions. This process, exacerbated by political actors exploiting cultural and civilizational divisions, could lead to a new wave of conflict-induced migration to Europe. To prevent this, proactive policies fostering dialogue and inclusive social programmes are needed, with adjusted support schemes to address root causes before they escalate. |
| Keywords: | EU-Türkiye Refugee Statement, Gezi protests, displaced people, refugees, migrant communities, displacement, Ansar, Bashar al-Assad, Ali Yerlikaya, Süleyman Soylu, Zafer Partisi, Ümit Özdaæg, Great Replacement |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:316689 |
| By: | Andrea Foschi; Christopher House; Christian Proebsting; Linda Tesar |
| Abstract: | We examine the responsiveness of labor participation, unemployment and labor migration to exogenous variations in labor demand. Our empirical approach considers four instruments for regional labor demand commonly used in the literature. Empirically, we find that labor migration is a significant margin of adjustment for all our instruments. Following an increase in regional labor demand, the initial increase in employment is accounted for mainly through a reduction in unemployment. Over time however, net labor in-migration becomes the dominant factor contributing to increased regional employment. After 5 years, roughly 60 percent of the increase in employment is explained by the change in population. Responses of labor migration are strongest for individuals aged 20-35. Based on historical data back to the 1950s, we find no evidence of a decline in the elasticity of migration to changes in employment. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 F66 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33755 |
| By: | Dorinth van Dijk; Marc Francke; Yumei Wang |
| Abstract: | We employ a panel vector auto-regressive model to analyze the dynamic interactions between delinquency rates on bank loans, funding and market liquidity, and asset price movements in regional U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) markets. Our findings indicate that rising delinquency rates lead to tighter funding liquidity, which in turn negatively impacts asset prices and market liquidity. Importantly, funding liquidity and market liquidity reinforce one another, demonstrating that “liquidity spirals†are also relevant in CRE markets. Additionally, there is a negative feedback loop between market liquidity and default rates: good market liquidity allows borrowers with financially distressed loans to sell properties before becoming delinquent. This highlights the crucial role of market liquidity in CRE markets. Based on these insights, we recommend counter-cyclical loan policy standards. In hot markets, tighter funding liquidity may reduce future delinquency rates, while in cold markets, more relaxed lending standards could enhance market liquidity. This may facilitate restructuring and refinancing of distressed loans, helping to mitigate liquidity spirals. |
| Keywords: | Funding liquidity; Market Liquidity; Commercial Real Estate; Delinquency Rates; |
| JEL: | R3 G21 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:835 |
| By: | Khan, Sarah; Seltzer, Andrew J. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the Pakistani Taliban's terror campaign against girls' education in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. We measure individual exposure to terror using the time and location of attacks against schools. The evidence suggests that the impact of the campaign was limited. We find limited evidence of reduced enrolment in response to terror, except during a 21-month period when the Taliban controlled the district of Swat. Where we do find evidence of reduced enrolment, it's generally small and diminishes over time. We also find no evidence of increased enrolment in religious schools, which were not targeted by the Taliban. |
| Keywords: | education; terrorism; Pakistan |
| JEL: | O15 I20 D74 O53 N15 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120987 |
| By: | James, William |
| Abstract: | Economic historians have acknowledged the importance of the accumulation of craft knowledge and the incremental innovations that it helped to induce in turning Europe from a technological backwater in the thirteenth century to the most technologically advanced part of the world by 1750. Yet though artisanal manufacturing was largely an urban phenomenon in the early modern period, there has not been extensive historiographical focus specifically on how different urban dynamics shaped the production and circulation of craft knowledge. Additionally, those that do explore artisanal knowledge within the urban context often do so through the lens of agglomeration theory which presents a highly generalised understanding of the impact of cities. This critical review brings together the literatures from urban history and the history of science and technology with the intention of developing a more nuanced understanding that emphasises idiosyncrasy and heterogeneity rather than generality in the ways that European cities shaped artisanal knowledge. |
| JEL: | N63 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127149 |
| By: | Sebastian Blesse; Florian Buhlmann; Philipp Heil; Davud Rostam-Afschar |
| Abstract: | We study firm responses to local policies through a survey experiment, providing randomized information on the competitiveness of business tax rates and highway access in their headquarters’ municipality. Firms often misperceive local policy competitiveness, especially for tax rates. Investment decisions respond asymmetrically to tax competitiveness. Positive tax rank information reduces investment intentions in neighboring municipalities. Compared to this, negative tax news increase relocation plans. However, most firms receiving bad news plan to continue investing in their headquarters’ municipality, indicating home bias. These effects are strongest for mobile firms and corporations. Negative infrastructure news lower location satisfaction but do not influence investment. |
| Keywords: | tax competition, infrastructure, firm location, survey experiment. |
| JEL: | H25 H32 H71 H72 H73 L21 R38 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11855 |
| By: | Jennifer Priefer Author-1-Name-First: Jennifer Author-1-Name-Last: Priefer (Paderborn University); Jan-Peter Kucklick Author-2-Name-First: Jan-Peter Author-2-Name-Last: Kucklick (Paderborn University); Daniel Beverungen Author-3-Name-First: Daniel Author-3-Name-Last: Beverungen (Paderborn University); Oliver Müller Author-3-Name-First: Oliver Author-3-Name-Last: Müller (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | Information systems have proven their value in facilitating pricing decisions. Still, predicting prices for complex goods, such as houses, remains challenging due to information asymmetries that obscure their qualities. Beyond search qualities that sellers can identify before a purchase, complex goods also possess experience qualities only identifiable ex-post. While research has discussed how information asymmetries cause market failure, it remains unclear how information systems can account for search and experience qualities of complex goods to enable their pricing in online markets. In a machine learning-based study, we quantify their predictive power for online real estate pricing, using geographic information systems and computer vision to incorporate spatial and image data into price prediction. We find that leveraging these secondary use data can transform some experience qualities into search qualities, increasing predictive power by up to 15.4%. We conclude that spatial and image data can provide valuable resources for improving price predictions for complex goods. |
| Keywords: | information asymmetries; real estate appraisal; SEC theory; machine learning; geographic information systems; computer vision |
| JEL: | C53 D82 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:138 |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha; Mitrou, Francis |
| Abstract: | The catastrophic consequences of natural disasters on social and economic systems are extensively documented, yet their influence on individuals' sense of control over their life outcomes remains unexplored. This study pioneers an investigation into the causal effects of natural disaster-related home damage on the locus of control. Utilizing Australian longitudinal data, we implement an individual fixed effects instrumental variables approach leveraging time-varying, exogenous exposure to local cyclones to address confounding factors. Our findings provide robust evidence that natural disaster-induced home damage statistically significantly and substantially diminishes individuals’ perception of control, particularly for those at the lower end of the locus of control distribution. This effect is disproportionately pronounced among older individuals, renters, and those from lower-income households. This newfound understanding offers opportunities for developing targeted interventions and support mechanisms to enhance resilience and assist these vulnerable populations following natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters; Locus of Control; Housing; Australia |
| JEL: | I31 Q54 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124610 |
| By: | Alice Ciccone; Cloé Garnache; Gøril Louise Andreassen |
| Abstract: | We conduct a large-scale randomized controlled trial to examine the effects of time- and location-specific, distance-based road pricing on travel behavior and driving externalities. Using financial incentives and a smartphone app that automatically tracks participants' travel behavior across different modes, we find that road pricing reduces driving externalities by 5.3%, implying a price elasticity of -0.07 to -0.15 for the external costs of driving. Our findings suggest that drivers of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are much less responsive to road pricing than drivers of non-BEVs. Furthermore, we find that providing information on the expected benefits of road pricing enhances public support for such policies, whereas experience with road pricing has little impact. |
| Keywords: | road pricing, public support, electric vehicles, driving externalities, field experiment, information provision. |
| JEL: | H23 R41 D83 C93 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11867 |
| By: | Blesse, Sebastian (University of Leipzig); Buhlmann, Florian (ZEW Mannheim); Heil, Philipp (ifo Institute, University of Munich); Rostam-Afschar, Davud (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | We study firm responses to local policies through a survey experiment, providing randomized information on the competitiveness of business tax rates and highway access in their headquarters’ municipality. Firms often misperceive local policy competitiveness, especially for tax rates. Investment decisions respond asymmetrically to tax competitiveness. Positive tax rank information reduces investment intentions in neighboring municipalities. Compared to this, negative tax news increase relocation plans. However, most firms receiving bad news plan to continue investing in their headquarters’ municipality, indicating home bias. These effects are strongest for mobile firms and corporations. Negative infrastructure news lower location satisfaction but do not influence investment. |
| Keywords: | survey experiment, firm location, infrastructure, tax competition |
| JEL: | H25 H32 H71 H72 H73 L21 R38 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17868 |
| By: | Duygu Buyukyazici; Olivier Brossard; Ron Boschma |
| Abstract: | The transition toward a circular economy (CE) represents not only an economic shift but also a profound social transformation that fundamentally redefines production, consumption, and policy patterns; thus, it necessitates comprehensive institutional change. This study presents the first macro-level empirical assessment of the CE transition across European regions over recent decades. Afterwards, it examines how regional regulative, normative, and cultural/cognitive institutions influence regional CE performance by also considering crucial confounding factors including EU cohesion funds, regional decentralisation, and the EU Circular Economy Action Plan (CEAP). The results reveal strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as the diverse effects of different institutions. Regulative institutions exhibit the most consistent positive effect across and within countries. Normative values matter most within regions, while cultural-cognitive factors modestly support CE efforts. Importantly, combination of all institutional pillars yields the greatest circularity gains. EU cohesion funds significantly boost CE progress, especially in less developed regions, while CEAP marks a structural shift in the role of institutions post-2015. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of coordinated institutional frameworks and targeted policy support for advancing the regional CE transition. |
| Keywords: | circular economy, circular transition, institutions, institutional theory, regions |
| JEL: | Q01 Q50 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2513 |
| By: | Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Kirdar, Murat Güray (Koc University); Turan, Belgi (TOBB University of Economy and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the horizontal transmission of gender norms using the forced migration of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria to Türkiye after the fall of the Iron Curtain as a natural experiment. Despite shared linguistic and religious ties, migrant women held more progressive gender norms and stronger labor market attachment than native Turkish women. Their arrival increased labor market participation among native women, particularly in male-dominated manufacturing, while men’s outcomes remained unchanged. Additionally, native women’s fertility declined, and middle school attainment rose, aligning with refugee women’s patterns. Exposure to progressive norms reshaped native women's roles in work and family life. |
| Keywords: | culture, horizontal transmission, social learning, migration |
| JEL: | J16 J15 J13 N45 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17871 |
| By: | Romane Frecheville-Faucon; Agathe Simon |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of public services in shaping the housework of women and promoting their labour participation in Europe. We explore how public services can be a direct source of employment, notably through schools and hospitals and how they reduce the burden of unpaid labour through their ’defamilialisation’ function. We have elaborated a novel database covering public service provision in 450 European regions, combined with data from the 2012 and 2016 European Quality of Life Surveys (EQLS). Employing a multilevel model analysis, we assess the influence of regional public service availability on women’s time spent on paid and unpaid work. Our findings indicate that the availability of public care services is associated with a decrease in unpaid work hours, while other services emerge as a source of employment for women, significantly increasing their involvement in paid work. We also show that schools and hospitals seem to be associated with an increase in unpaid work, indicating that public services do not fundamentally change the gendered division of labour but are rather instruments for the reallocation of time. |
| Keywords: | Women’s time use, public services, regional analysis, local welfare states. |
| JEL: | J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-42 |
| By: | Naz, Amber |
| Abstract: | Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, faces critical fire-response challenges due to its unplanned dense urbanization, limited infrastructure, and scarce firefighting resources. This conceptual study proposes an integrated framework leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for proactive fire-response planning in Karachi. The framework consists of three components: AI-driven accessibility mapping for optimizing emergency navigation through congested areas; ML-enhanced service area analysis to improve fire station and hydrant coverage; and ML-GIS–based vulnerability mapping to predict and prioritize high-risk zones for strategic intervention. By utilizing open-source tools such as QGIS and ML libraries, the framework offers a low-cost, scalable approach tailored to resource-constrained settings. This study outlines the framework’s structure, discusses its implications for urban resilience, and proposes directions for empirical validation, offering a transferable blueprint for improving fire-response efficiency in Karachi and other megacities facing similar challenges. |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4c9yk_v1 |
| By: | Amalia Estenssoro; Reed Romanko |
| Abstract: | In the fourth quarter of 2024, commercial real estate loans represented a quarter of U.S. banks’ loan portfolios. What other types of loans did these institutions hold? |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; lending; loan portfolios |
| Date: | 2025–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99983 |
| By: | Iñaki Aldasoro; Sebastian Doerr |
| Abstract: | Private credit, often associated with unsecured lending, has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. We use U.S. loan-level data to show that total outstanding amounts of secured direct loans now surpass unsecured direct loans. Loans are more likely to be secured when informational frictions between lenders and borrowers are more severe. Comparing loans to firms within the same metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and industry, we observe that secured loans have lower amounts, higher spreads, and longer maturity than unsecured loans. Club deals and revolvers are increasingly common in both market segments, likely driven by rising bank participation. Finally, employing an instrumental variable strategy and cross-sectional variation in house prices across MSAs, we provide suggestive evidence of a 'real estate collateral channel' in private credit. When house prices rise, secured direct lending increases by substantially more than its unsecured counterpart, especially in collateral-dependent industries. We conclude by discussing the implications for monetary policy transmission and the evolving bank-private credit nexus. |
| Keywords: | private credit, direct lending, collateral, house prices, asymmetric information |
| JEL: | G20 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1267 |
| By: | Huang Dahu; Shan Tiecheng; Wang Cheng |
| Abstract: | Urban rural common prosperity is the ultimate goal of narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas and promoting urban rural integration development, and it is an indispensable and important element in the common wealth goal of Chinese style modernization. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.16569 |
| By: | Baker-Henningham, Helen; Taja, Francis; Bowers, Marsha |
| Abstract: | We adapted a violence-prevention, parenting program (the Irie Homes Toolbox, or IHT) for integration into Jamaican preschool services. The adapted IHT was evaluated in a mixed-method feasibility trial in Kingston, Jamaica. Twenty-four preschools were randomly assigned to intervention (n12) or wait-list control (n12). Ten caregivers per school were recruited (n240, n120/group). The program consisted of eleven 1-hour parenting sessions delivered by a preschool teacher with groups of ten caregivers of children aged 2-6 years. In the impact evaluation, the primary outcome was caregivers' use of violence against their child (VAC). Secondary outcomes were caregivers' involvement with their child, attitude to VAC, preferences for harsh punishment, self-efficacy, and child conduct problems. All outcomes were measured by caregiver-report, and we test for and find no evidence of social desirability bias. We measured fidelity of implementation on an ongoing basis. We also conducted in-depth interviews with participating teachers and kept ongoing logs on intervention implementation. Participants attended a mean (SD)4.0(3.1) sessions. The IHT intervention led to reductions in caregivers' use of VAC (ES-0.22, p0.04) and caregivers' favorable attitudes to VAC (ES-0.36, p0.01), and increases in caregivers' involvement with their child (ES0.30, p0.005) and parenting self-efficacy (ES0.29, p0.02). Reductions in caregiver preferences for harsh punishment were significant at p0.07 (ES-0.21). We found no benefits to child conduct problems. Through observations of session quality, interviews with preschool teachers, and research team logs, we identified enablers and barriers to intervention implementation and suggestions for improvement. The program has potential for large-scale dissemination to reduce VAC in Jamaica. |
| Keywords: | violence prevention;Violence against children;preschool;Parenting intervention |
| JEL: | I10 I20 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14089 |
| By: | Etienne Capron (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal); Elie Saaoud (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal) |
| Abstract: | While some studies have sought to clarify the role of spatial settings in organizing creativity, this relationship remains theoretically ambiguous, specifically when we consider the capacity for action offered by places. Therefore, we propose to revisit this issue through the concept of affordances, which originally refers to actors' relationship to their physical environments and how it generates possibilities for action. This conceptual chapter proposes a framework for place-based affordances that theorizes the material, social, and institutional possibilities for creative practices that emerge from one's attendance of a place. This framework is exemplified through a vignette of place attendance and usage by an artist practicing projection mapping in Montreal. Through this example drawn from artistic creation, the place-based affordances framework offers a new look at the generative power of places for organizing creativity. |
| Keywords: | Place-based affordances affordance theory organizing creativity places projection mapping, Place-based affordances, affordance theory, organizing, creativity, places, projection mapping |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05034010 |
| By: | Minoru Kitahara; Yasunori Okumura |
| Abstract: | We examine a controlled school choice model where students are categorized into different types, and the distribution of these types within a school influences its priority structure. This study provides a general framework that integrates existing controlled school choice models, including those utilizing reserve rules, quota rules, and bonus-point rules. Specifically, we introduce an adjusted scoring rule that unifies these rules. By achieving a matching that satisfies the stability defined in this framework, matching authorities can effectively manage the trade-offs inherent in controlled school choice markets. Moreover, the priority order for a school is represented as a weak order with each given assignment, meaning that ties are allowed. Our mechanism ensures a stable matching and satisfies strategy-proofness. In particular, when priority orders are restricted to linear orders with each given assignment, our mechanism guarantees student-optimal stability. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.18220 |
| By: | Hillenbrand, Tobias (RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance); Martorano, Bruno (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG); Siegel, Melissa (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 2, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 6, RS: FdR Institute ITEM, RS: UNU-MERIT - MACIMIDE) |
| Abstract: | Immigration has become one of the most divisive political issues in Europe and around the world. In Germany, Europe’s largest refugee hosting country, public attitudes have reached a low point. Besides increased “real-life” exposure to immigrants, exposure to all sorts of messages centered around immigration and refugees may be behind this worrying trend. While prior research has investigated the effects of specific subjects of the immigration discourse, such as specific frames or statistical information, it remains unclear how “neutral” reporting on refugee migration impacts public attitudes. We fill this gap using data from an original survey experiment conducted in Germany in May 2023. The findings suggest that a sober (neutral) video providing basic background information on Syrian refugees reduces humanitarian concerns for this refugee group, increases the perception of security threats and lowers the willingness to support refugee camps abroad. The results are driven by West German residents. Qualitative data reveals that, although the video is indeed perceived as “neutral”, it triggers security-related associations among West Germans, seemingly eroding concerns for refugees’ wellbeing. Conversely, East Germans, while starting from a slightly more negative base level, more frequently express indifference. Finally, merging our survey data with administrative data on the foreign population in respondents’ counties reveals that larger percentage increases in real-life immigration exposure mitigate the treatment effect. |
| JEL: | A13 D63 D83 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2025011 |
| By: | Ryota Ishikawa (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | Bramoull´e et al. (2009) provided identification conditions for linear social interaction models through network structures. Despite the importance of their results, the authors omitted detailed mathematical discussions. Moreover, they consider cases where many identical networks are observed simultaneously within the same dataset. In reality, multiple networks with different structures, such as classrooms or villages, are repeatedly observed within the same dataset. The purpose of this paper is to fill in the mathematical gaps in their arguments and to establish identification conditions for networks with different structures. In addition, we find the smallest network size as a necessary condition for identifying social effects. We also discuss the identification conditions of network models with a fixed network effect. |
| Keywords: | identification, network model, social interactions, network size |
| JEL: | C31 D85 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2509 |
| By: | Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas |
| Abstract: | Social interactions affect individual behavior in a variety of ways, but their effects on expectation formation are less well understood. We design a large-scale global survey experiment among renowned experts working in 135 countries to study whether peer effects impact expectations about the macroeconomy. The global setting allows us to exploit rich cross-national variation in macroeconomic fundamentals. Our experiment uncovers sizable effects of peers and shows that peer information also shifts monetary policy recommendations of experts. The results have important implications for the design of policies and models of information acquisition. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations; belief formation; peer effects; survey experiment; economic experts |
| JEL: | E31 E71 D84 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-739 |
| By: | Alejandro Beltran (Universidad del Pacifico, Peru); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy, Georgia State University Author-Name: Andres Munoz; International Development Bank Author-Name: Enid Slack; University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | The property tax in Mexico is far from reaching its potential. It has grown little over the past 25 years due to both policy and administrative shortcomings. A major issue lies in the weak management of cadastres--the systems used to identify, register, and value properties--which are often outdated or poorly maintained because of lack of interest and capacity, and inconsistent federal and state support. The effectiveness of property tax collection hinges on a strong cadastral administration, which is complex, costly and often unpopular among citizens, especially in developing countries. The debate over whether cadastral functions should be centralized or decentralized centers on a trade-off between capacity (favoring centralization) and incentives for revenue collection (favoring decentralization). Using municipal-level data from 2016 to 2022, this study analyzes how different governance structures regarding cadastral administration affect property tax revenues in Mexico, with particular focus on the role of local capacity in shaping outcomes. It finds that municipalities with low administrative capacity benefit from state-managed cadastres, while those with high capacity perform better when managing their own. These findings support an asymmetric approach to cadastral management, tailored to local capacities, to enhance revenue collection. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2509 |
| By: | Jennifer Priefer Author-1-Name-First: Jennifer Author-1-Name-Last: Priefer (Paderborn University); Daniel Beverungen Author-2-Name-First: Daniel Author-2-Name-Last: Beverungen (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | Value creation through service is integral to our society, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) play a crucial role by leveraging location information to contextualize value propositions and establish new location-based service. Despite the significance of GIS, their role in value co-creation within service systems has not been thoroughly conceptualized. This paper develops a conceptual framework for location-specific service systems utilizing GIS, based on the smart service systems framework and six case studies from both B2B and B2C markets. By examining GIS’s dual perspective in B2B and B2C contexts, we highlight their unique contributions across various service settings. Our framework advances service science by introducing a novel perspective on the role of GIS, emphasizing their strategic and operational benefits. Identifying GIS as boundary objects, we demonstrate their potential to enhance service quality and efficiency through local usefulness and shared identity among service system actors. The framework shows how GIS facilitate value co-creation by mediating information transfer and knowledge sharing between stakeholders. This study provides actionable insights for service providers and proposes a comprehensive model to guide future research and practical implementations, enhancing both the theoretical and practical understanding of GIS in service systems. |
| Keywords: | Service Science, Location Information, Geographic Information System, Location-Based Service, Location-Contextualizing Service |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:137 |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Daniel Mangrum; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | This morning, the Center for Microeconomic Data at the New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit updated through the first quarter of 2025. Over the first quarter, overall household debt rose by $167 billion. An increase of $199 billion in mortgage balances and modest increases in home equity lines of credit (HELOC) and student loans were offset by declines in auto loans and credit card debt of $13 billion and $29 billion, respectively. The decline in credit card balances is a typical seasonal pattern associated with consumers paying down holiday spending from the fourth quarter, but the auto loan decline was atypical, the first such decline since the third quarter of 2020. The rates at which auto loans and credit cards became seriously delinquent improved slightly, while mortgage and HELOC transition rates edged up but remained low. However, the delinquency rate for student loans stands out: it surged from below 1 percent to nearly 8 percent, as the pause on reporting delinquent federal student loans ended. In this post, we focus on student loan delinquency, including which borrowers are past due and what it might mean for their access to credit. |
| Keywords: | household debt |
| JEL: | G51 |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:99962 |
| By: | Hanming Fang (University of Pennsylvania and NBER); Ming Li (Chinese University of Hong Kong); Guangli Lu (Chinese University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | We decode China’s industrial policies from 2000 to 2022 by employing large language models (LLMs) to extract and analyze rich information from a comprehensive dataset of 3 million documents issued by central, provincial, and municipal governments. Through careful prompt engineering, multistage extraction and refinement, and rigorous verification, we use LLMs to classify the industrial policy documents and extract structured information on policy objectives, targeted industries, policy tones (supportive or regulatory/suppressive), policy tools, implementation mechanisms, and intergovernmental relationships, etc. Combining these newly constructed industrial policy data with micro-level firm data, we document four sets of facts about China’s industrial policy that explore the following questions: What are the economic and political foundations of the targeted industries? What policy tools are deployed? How do policy tools vary across different levels of government and regions, as well as over the phases of an industry’s development? What are the impacts of these policies on firm behavior, including entry, production, and productivity growth? We also explore the political economy of industrial policy, focusing on top-down transmission mechanisms, policy persistence, and policy diffusion across regions. Finally, we document spatial inefficiencies and industry-wide overcapacity as potential downsides of industrial policies. |
| Keywords: | Large Language Models; Industrial Policy; Policy Diffusion; Revealed Comparative Advantage; Overcapacity |
| JEL: | L52 O25 C55 |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:25-012 |
| By: | Garrett, Adair; Amekudzi-Kennedy, Adjo |
| Abstract: | Resilience for rail systems may be defined by the set of system capabilities that enable the continued or improved functionality of rail systems exposed to multiple types of hazards, including extreme weather events. Assessing the resilience of rail systems and making appropriate investments may reduce the impacts of threats to system users and infrastructure. However, no studies found by the authors to date have proposed a comprehensive set of metrics that address all the commonly cited resilience capabilities: robustness, flexibility, preparedness, survivability, recoverability, adaptive capacity, and transformative capacity. Based on a review of studies across freight, intercity passenger, and urban transit rail systems, metrics for resilience are identified, categorized, and analyzed along the disruption and recoverytimeline (from before disruption occurrence to long after system recovery). The intent of reviewing such a diverse set of rail system studies is to find appropriate metrics across different agencies, types of systems, and levels of maturity of the agencies’ resilience-building practices. Building upon the review of rail resilience assessment metrics, this first thrust of this research proposes a rail-specific set of metrics to quantify resilience capabilities along the disruption and recovery timeline. These metrics can highlight what interventions can enhance each resilience capability for improved disruption response. The second thrust of this research applies the multi-capability resilience assessment approach to MARTA. Additionally, although resilience and sustainability assessments may provide advantageous information to decision makers in the rail industry, there is no formalized framework for integrating such assessments in rail practices in the US. The third thrust of this research presents a framework to integrate resilience and sustainability into rail planning and resource allocation decision making. This element supports investments in rail to prepare for extreme events, protect the natural environment, enhance economic competitiveness, and improve quality of life. The study could be useful for agencies looking to assess the sustainability or quantify the resilience of a rail network. More broadly, this study may be of interest to transportation practitioners, policy makers, and other stakeholders looking to better characterize transportation resilience by considering physical and organizational capabilities. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Rail, Resilience, Metrics, Performance Monitoring |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt64n2f5zd |
| By: | Xue, Melanie; Zhang, Boxiao |
| Abstract: | We study the short- and long-term effects of affirmative action policies in the context of China. During imperial China, official positions were awarded to the most academically talented individuals through a multi-stage examination process administered by the central government. In 1712, a reform was implemented to address disparities in exam performance, aiming to equalize acceptance rates across provinces and increase representation from underrepresented regions. Using a unique dataset, we analyze career outcomes and find that more candidates from underrepresented provinces secured positions without compromising their performance after the reform. However, sub-provincial units showed different trends. Although the reform ended in 1905, the gap between underrepresented provinces and others widened again, but some effects of the reform remained. Moreover, the intervention had spillover effects, extending its impact to secondary education. |
| Keywords: | affirmative action; education; inequality; China |
| JEL: | H75 I28 J71 N40 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128023 |
| By: | Shuhei Nishitateno (Kwansei Gakuin University and RIETI); Yasuyuki Todo (Waseda University and RIETI) |
| Abstract: | China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has led to a global proliferation of large-scale infrastructure projects. From the perspective of Western nations, the impacts of BRI infrastructure investments on economic, political, and security interests pose significant concerns. This paper examines the effects of the BRI on Japanese overseas infrastructure projects and diplomatic relations between Japan and BRI countries. Using a staggered difference-in-differences research design with a panel dataset covering 138 low- and middle-income countries from 2001 to 2020, we find that the BRI crowded out Japanese infrastructure projects and reduced political leaders’ visits from BRI countries to Japan. These effects are particularly pronounced for nations in the East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia regions, where the Japan–China competition for infrastructure investments is most intense. Furthermore, we identify the expansion of Chinese overseas infrastructure projects, particularly aid-based rather than debt-financed projects, as a key mechanism driving these effects. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative, Overseas infrastructure investments, Diplomatic relations, China, Japan |
| JEL: | F21 P00 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Mehdi Guelmamen; Serge Garcia; Alexandre Mayol |
| Abstract: | Inter-municipal cooperation (IMC) is frequently promoted as a solution to improve the management of local utilities such as drinking water. Yet its effectiveness remains ambiguous: while IMC can create economies of scale, it may also induce transaction costs that undermine its benefits. In France, drinking water services are managed at the municipal level, where local governments can decide whether to cooperate—and if so, whether to adopt a purely technical cooperative arrangement or a more politically integrated, supra-municipal governance structure. Using a comprehensive panel of French water utilities from 2008 to 2021, we investigate the factors that lead municipalities to remain independent. Our econometric analysis, based on a correlated random effects probit model with a control function approach, yields several key findings. First, while IMC is associated with higher water prices, these increased tariffs are offset by better network performance, as indicated by lower water loss indices and improved water quality. Second, we find that the more politically integrated form of cooperation is more common among publicly managed utilities and among municipalities seeking to reduce their dependence on imported water. These findings provide new insights into the governance of common-pool resources, suggesting that while cooperation can improve service provision, its institutional design must carefully balance organizational costs against expected efficiency gains. |
| Keywords: | water resource management, public utilities, local government, inter-municipal cooperation (IMC), transaction costs. |
| JEL: | H11 L11 L95 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2025-07 |
| By: | Ziqi Li |
| Abstract: | This chapter discusses the opportunities of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) within the realm of spatial analysis. A key objective in spatial analysis is to model spatial relationships and infer spatial processes to generate knowledge from spatial data, which has been largely based on spatial statistical methods. More recently, machine learning offers scalable and flexible approaches that complement traditional methods and has been increasingly applied in spatial data science. Despite its advantages, machine learning is often criticized for being a black box, which limits our understanding of model behavior and output. Recognizing this limitation, XAI has emerged as a pivotal field in AI that provides methods to explain the output of machine learning models to enhance transparency and understanding. These methods are crucial for model diagnosis, bias detection, and ensuring the reliability of results obtained from machine learning models. This chapter introduces key concepts and methods in XAI with a focus on Shapley value-based approaches, which is arguably the most popular XAI method, and their integration with spatial analysis. An empirical example of county-level voting behaviors in the 2020 Presidential election is presented to demonstrate the use of Shapley values and spatial analysis with a comparison to multi-scale geographically weighted regression. The chapter concludes with a discussion on the challenges and limitations of current XAI techniques and proposes new directions. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.00591 |
| By: | Sumit Agarwal (NUS); Sergio Mayordomo (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); María Rodríguez-Moreno (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Emanuele Tarantino (LUISS, EIEF, CEPR, AND EUROPEAN COMMISSION) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how monetary policy affects corporate lending through its impact on household balance sheets, bridging the gap between the cash flow and bank lending channels. When policy rates rise, households with variable-rate debt face higher monthly payments, prompting early mortgage repayments, particularly among high-income borrowers. Exploiting the monetary tightening between July 2022 and September 2023 as a policy experiment, we show that banks that are more exposed to variable-rate mortgages granted to higher-income households increase their supply of corporate credit, especially to micro and small firms. However, no variation is observed in the balance of household credit or in other investment items on the banks’ balance sheets. Indeed, banks facing higher liquidity constraints tend to extend more corporate credit as their exposure to early redemptions increases. Our findings provide new evidence on how household financial constraints shape monetary policy transmission, offering novel insights into the interplay between household debt dynamics and corporate credit allocation. |
| Keywords: | floating-rate mortgages, early redemption, monetary policy tightening, monetary policy transmission, corporate lending, bank liquidity |
| JEL: | D14 E43 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2524 |
| By: | Ettore Recchi (CRIS - Centre de recherche sur les inégalités sociales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Existing research on the transnational mobility of individuals tends to rely on limited and possibly misleading indicators. Arguing that mobility experiences are in fact multidimensional and cumulative over the course of a lifetime, this paper proposes a novel concept called ‘space-set' and applies it to representative samples of the population in France, Germany and Italy (ELIPSS, GP.pop and Doxa surveys). A space-set is defined as the collection of each person's geographical places known through first-hand experience. In a transnational perspective, its key dimensions are Size (the number of countries visited), Width (the farthest distance traveled), and Focus (being emotionally attached or not to more than one country). This new indicator measures individual-level inequalities of geographical mobility. As a proof of concept, the empirical part of the paper uses space-sets to address two research questions that loom large in different strands of the literature on social transnationalism: on the one hand, the social stratification of cross-border travel, on the other the association between transnational mobility and supranational orientations (i.e., cosmopolitan and pro-EU attitudes). Results confirm that space-sets are socially stratified by both class and education, and that larger, wider, and more transnationally oriented space-sets are associated with supranational orientations. Comparatively, all dimensions of space-sets are stronger in the German population than in their French and Italian counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Transnationalism, Mobility, Inequalities, Europe B Ettore Recchi |
| Date: | 2025–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05045399 |
| By: | Joubert, Clement (World Bank); Kanth, Priyanka (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Low- and middle-income countries are experiencing fast population aging and reductions in extreme poverty, increasing theoretical incentives to save for old age, but empirical evidence on household wealth accumulation over the life cycle is lacking. Using age-cohort-time decompositions on 18 years of micro-data from Pakistan, we show that the average household accumulates wealth equivalent to 5 years’ worth of consumption between the ages of 25 and 65. Furthermore, this is mostly in the form of illiquid residential housing and land in rural areas. Examination of housing acquisitions, renovations, and dwelling characteristics over the life cycle reveals that wealth accumulation in 2001-2018 resulted partly from active investment in housing and partly from capital gains. To the extent that keeping all wealth in the form of housing may be sub-optimal, this constrained ability to save for the long term could motivate the extension of contributory pension instruments to informal sector workers, the majority of the workforce in this setting. |
| Keywords: | social protection, savings, informality, aging |
| JEL: | D14 D15 J11 J26 J46 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17876 |
| By: | Arnone, Massimo; Costantiello, Alberto; Drago, Carlo; Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | The socio-economic and institutional factors explaining the length of civil proceedings (LCP) over the 2004-2022 time frame are analyzed here in 20 Italian regions. Adopting panel data analysis approaches, such as fixed-effects, random-effects, and two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variables, the analysis investigates the effects of income inequality, material poverty, labor market disengagement, economic family distress, civic and political participation, and non-profit density on trial length. Results identify a significant positive association between net income inequality, intensity of work poverty, deterioration of household economic conditions, and civic and political participation and an increased length of proceedings. The findings suggest that structural socio-economic vulnerability and increased legal demand in civically active regions are factors prolonging proceedings. In contrast, non-profit density is strongly and inversely associated with trial length, suggesting their effectiveness in promoting institutional efficiency. Instrumental variables sourced in environmental, infrastructural, and sustainability indicators provide assurance of the robustness of these associations. The research stresses that legal inefficiencies are not peculiar exceptions but are part of deeply embedded and intricate systems of the wider society, economy, and the natural environment. Policy conclusions point to the necessity of integrated governance responses that interlink legal reform with social equity, civic empowerment, and environmental resilience to promote both the timeliness of justice and institutional accountability in regional settings. |
| Keywords: | Civil Proceedings Duration, Income Inequality, Socioeconomic Deprivation, Civic Engagement, Institutional Efficiency. |
| JEL: | I38 K40 K41 O43 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124549 |
| By: | Yusuke Adachi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel method for estimating the housing production function that addresses transmission bias caused by unobserved heterogeneity in land productivity. The approach builds on the nonparametric identification strategy of Gandhi et al. (2020) and exploits the zero-profit condition to allow consistent estimation even when either capital input or housing value is unobserved, under the assumption that land productivity follows a Markov process. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the estimator performs well across a variety of production technologies. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.20429 |
| By: | Dominik Svoboda (Fogelman College of Business Economics, University of Memphis, United States; Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Jan Hanousek, Jr. (Fogelman College of Business Economics, University of Memphis, United States); Velma Zahirovic-Herbert (Fogelman College of Business Economics, University of Memphis, United States) |
| Abstract: | We use major flood events in Florida as exogenous climate events, we assess the role of news coverage and sentiment on property values. Our analysis draws on a rich panel of Florida property transactions, covering the period from 2000 to 2022, which allows us to control for a wide set of user and property characteristics. We find that properties in flood-affected areas experience significant price discounts. These discounts are amplified in cases of negative sentiment and lack of coverage. Indeed, we observe that coverage of flood events is not reliable, as media tends to focus on certain areas, and the coverage is not purely driven by the extent of the damage. Out-of-state buyers demand larger discounts than in-state buyers, as they are more reliant on those information sources. We employ both difference-in-difference and propensity score matching approaches, which support the causality of our findings. |
| Keywords: | Information asymmetry, behavioral finance, real estate markets, peer influence, climate risks. |
| JEL: | R30 G40 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:103_2025 |
| By: | Ilyes Boumahdi; Nouzha Zaoujal |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to explore the opportunity of recent and detailed unconventional data from the tourism sector collected from {\guillemotleft} Booking.com {\guillemotright} to make a finer and more up-to-date analysis than that established by conventional data, particularly, at the territorial level of North Africa. We extracted and geolocalised about 40 variables of different types covering 1852 accommodations on Booking.com to analyze the characteristics of territorial tourist offer of the six North African countries (10 of 12 Moroccan regions, 3 of 13 Mauritanian Wilayas, 26 of 48 Algerian Wilayas, 13 of 24 Tunisian Governorates, 1 region of Libya, 15 of 27 Egyptian Mohafazats). Then, we used a random sample of 10% of the most recent appreciations of nearly 606000 tourists of the three most dynamic destinations (Marrakech-Safi, Tunis, Cairo) by analyzing the feelings of their comments with a differentiation according origin of tourists. We concluded that the accommodation offer of the territories of North Africa is very diversified and unclassified offers are slightly better appreciated compared to those classified. The coastal regions have higher prices compared to the interior of the countries and quality-price appreciation of North African regions is below their overall ratings. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.19539 |
| By: | Fitch-Polse, Dillon T.; Mohiuddin, Hossain; Willett, Dan; Nelson, Trisalyn; Favetti, Matthew; Watkins, Kari |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of active transportation projects in increasing active transportation in California. It also serves to validate the current methods of the California Active Transportation Benefit-Cost Tool. Using count and infrastructure data from the cities of Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz, California, with updated models from the California Active Transportation Benefit-Cost Tool, the authors estimated project level changes in active transportation using two methods. The first method uses a direct demand modeled before and after bicycling and pedestrian volumes. The second method is an expected increase in bicycling and pedestrian volumes based on the project parameters and their effect sizes from the academic literature. Results show that, in general, both estimates are closely aligned. However, the results also indicate that for some projects, particularly those projects with greater change in walking and bicycling, the California Active Transportation Benefit-Cost Tool can diverge from the before-after estimate substantially at the project-level. Several suggestions for future research and improvements to the tool are made. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Active transportation, infrastructure evaluation, direct demand models, before and after, benefit-cost tool |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6md6b2z4 |
| By: | Bagnoli, Lisa Serena; Delgado, Lucia; Luza, Jerónimo; Mitnik, Oscar A.; Pasman, Clara; Serebrisky, Tomás |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced a significant increase in natural disasters, posing significant threats to infrastructure and economic activity, particularly in regions with poor infrastructure. Understanding the patterns in recovery time after disasters is key to designing accurate responses to natural hazards. In this paper, we develop a methodological approach and use Hurricane Odile, which struck Baja California Sur, Mexico, in September 2014, as a case study to understand the recovery paths following such disasters. We rely on nighttime lights data to capture the initial impact and eventual recovery of electricity service and economic activity in the area of impact of the hurricane. We find that the average luminosity dropped to 78% of pre-hurricane levels immediately after the event and did not fully recover within a year. Impacts are heterogeneous, with localities such as Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo experiencing more severe impacts and slower recovery compared to La Paz, which recovered faster. These results suggest that disaster evaluation, mitigation policies, and preventive measures against disaster impacts should be tailored to local realities. |
| Keywords: | Resilience;natural disasters;electricity;Economic activity recovery;nighttime light;Hurricane;Mexico |
| JEL: | O13 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14098 |
| By: | Annadurai, Gopinath (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore); Sahoo, Soham (Loughborough University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the First-Generation Graduate Scholarship scheme implemented in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which waives tuition fees for first-generation college students in technical education. Using household survey data in difference-in-differences (DiD) and synthetic DiD frameworks, we find substantial improvements in enrollment, stream choice, and graduation in technical courses, with downstream effects on regular employment, occupational choices, and household welfare. Male students gained more than female students. The scheme also increased reliance on education loans to cover residual costs. Our findings highlight how targeting intergenerational disadvantages through education policy can influence educational choices and produce positive labour market returns. |
| Keywords: | first-generation graduates, technical courses, tuition fee waiver, higher education, stream choice, labour market outcomes |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17879 |
| By: | Jonathan Davis; Samuel Norris; Jadon Schmitt; Yotam Shem-Tov; Chelsea Strickland |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the use of mobile crisis response teams—a non-uniformed pair consisting of a mental health worker and a medic—as a component of emergency response to 911 calls. We provide the first evaluation of the longest-running program in the United States, Crisis Assistance Helping Out on the Streets (CAHOOTS) in Eugene, Oregon, which responds to calls involving mental illness, homelessness, and addiction either instead of or in addition to police officers. We use two complementary research designs to understand the effects and possible scope of these programs. First, we find that a series of program expansions into new areas and times reduced the likelihood that a 911 call resulted in an arrest and increased access to medical services. The arrest reduction likely reflects CAHOOTS’ role in de-escalating tense situations and resolving incidents without coercive measures. CAHOOTS is most often dispatched to the same calls as the police, acting as a supplement rather than a substitute. Second, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in CAHOOTS availability in the post-expansion periods to estimate the effect of additional marginal program expansions. We find that they are used mostly for calls that would otherwise go unanswered, suggesting that the program has reached a scale where it can respond to the most urgent calls. We conclude that crisis response teams play an important role as a complement to the police rather than acting only as substitutes. |
| JEL: | I10 J22 J45 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33761 |
| By: | Galindo da Fonseca, JoaÞo; Santarrosa, Rogerio |
| Abstract: | We test whether firms react to changes in the wages and size of their competitors. We use a unique institutional feature of public procurement auctions in Brazil: the moment in which the auction ends is random. For close auctions, winner and runner-up are as good as randomly assigned. We first show that firm-specific demand shocks lead to increases in the size and wages of the firm receiving the shock. Then, we document that these firm-specific demand shocks lead to increased wages of other (competing) firms in the same local labor market. We do not find negative effects on competitors' firm size. The effects are driven by competing firms responding to demand shocks from firms with high labor market share. |
| JEL: | J01 J23 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14084 |
| By: | Julien Champagne; Antoine Poulin-Moore; Mallory Long |
| Abstract: | We document recent changes in Canadian immigration, marked by an increasing prevalence of temporary residency. Using microdata from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey, we show that temporary workers' characteristics and nominal wages have diverged from those of Canadian-born workers. Between 2015 and 2024, temporary workers have become younger, less experienced and more likely to migrate from lower-income countries. As well, the shares of temporary workers in skilled occupations have declined moderately. Throughout this period, the average nominal wage gap between temporary and Canadian-born workers has more than doubled, widening from -9.5% to -22.6%. Further, we estimate Mincer regressions to assess how these evolving characteristics have contributed to the growing wage gap. Our findings show that this increase can be explained by observable characteristics. Our results suggest that aggregate nominal wages would have been, on average, 0.7% higher in 2023–24 had the characteristics of temporary workers remained unchanged over the past decade. |
| Keywords: | Labour markets; Productivity |
| JEL: | J20 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:25-08 |
| By: | Churakov Dmitry (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | I have carried out a quantitative analysis of the influence of the development of the railway infrastructure in the Russian Empire on its industrial development. This topic is practically not worked out in the modern economic literature, despite the existence of the necessary tools and works devoted to this process in other countries... The results I have obtained do not support the hypothesis that the proximity to the railways had a positive effect on the population growth of the counties of the European part of the Russian Empire, on their urbanization and on industrial development, which I understand as the use of new engines by firms in production. Such conclusions are consistent with the Vogelian view that railways were not such an important driver of economic growth in the 19th century. |
| Keywords: | railways, urbanization, industry, economy of the Russian Empire |
| JEL: | N73 O14 O18 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0071 |
| By: | Mehdi Guelmamen |
| Abstract: | The provision of drinking water has become a central concern for public authorities due to climate change, prompting policymakers to reevaluate their approach to this semi-renewable resource. In this paper, we assess the effect of inter-municipal cooperation on performance. Using a comprehensive panel dataset comprising all French drinking water providers from 2008 to 2021, we show that organizational forms chosen by municipalities have an effect on prices of drinking water paid by consumers. More precisely, our empirical findings reveal a selection bias in the estimation of price equations and we show that consumer prices are significantly higher on average when municipalities decide to cooperate. Inter-municipal cooperation does not necessarily lead to better performance in the provision of drinking water. |
| Keywords: | Intermunicipal cooperation, local government, public services, drinking water prices, selection bias. |
| JEL: | H11 H77 L11 L95 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-40 |
| By: | Citlali Trigos-Raczkowski; Kelsey Q. Wright (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Joonas Pitkänen; Silvia Loi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Heta Moustgaard; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Keywords: | Europe, Finland, cohabitation, first marriage, immigrants |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-012 |
| By: | Bromo, Francesco (University of Oxford); Fuerte, Manuela Munoz |
| Abstract: | Evidence evaluating the effect of the tax structure on the growth and survival of small businesses is often inconclusive. We employ a sharp regression discontinuity design to evaluate a tax relief policy for small businesses introduced in Scotland in 2008. We leverage the exogenous nature of the cut-off that determines whether a business qualifies for a 100% discount on non-domestic rates based on a property’s “rateable value” to assess how the policy impacted the growth and survival of small businesses in the city of Glasgow. We find that the tax relief scheme is associated with heightened growth and survival of small businesses benefiting from the discount in the years following its implementation. However, our results speak to the challenges of fully separating a possible causal effect of the policy from changes induced by sorting or manipulation of assignment to treatment. Further tests indicate that the periodically performed re-evaluations of rateable values tend to concentrate just below the exemption cut-off, suggesting that there are other factors that might be influencing the outcome. |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9w7fk_v1 |
| By: | Nick Carroll; Celine Thevenot; Mr. Sébastien Walker |
| Abstract: | The management of government spending on employee compensation is crucial for small developing states (SDS), where such spending constitutes a large portion of government expenses. These states often face unique challenges, such as disproportionately high government employment levels and the issue of "brain drain"—the latter complicates staffing for skilled positions. This note summarizes the unique challenges these states face, underscoring the importance of tailored strategies for small states in managing government compensation and employment effectively. |
| Keywords: | government-sector remuneration; staffing; small states; fiscal sustainability; brain drain; compensation spending; public service delivery |
| Date: | 2025–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2025/004 |