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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Urban Development-Transport in Urban Areas Urban Development-Urban Economic Development Public Sector Development Social Protections and Labor |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:42112 |
| By: | Sebastian Doerr; Andreas Fuster |
| Abstract: | Policy makers place high hopes in manufactured homes - the largest source of unsubsidized affordable housing in the US - to alleviate housing supply shortages. This paper shows that high market concentration in the multi-billion-dollar manufactured home loan market allows lenders to charge significantly higher interest rates than for site-built homes. Loan-level data indicate that borrowers in counties with higher lender concentration face significantly higher rates. Evidence from bunching at the regulatory HOEPA rate threshold, an instrumental variable analysis, and a difference-in-differences analysis around HOEPA's introduction suggests a causal link. We further show that integrated lenders, which play an outsized role in the manufactured home loan market, charge particularly high rates, and we provide evidence suggesting that these lenders exploit their market power over borrowers. |
| Keywords: | manufactured homes, mortgage market, competition, household finance, HOEPA |
| JEL: | G21 G23 L13 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1255 |
| By: | Craig Sylvera |
| Abstract: | Do Black communities economically benefit from the election of a Black mayor? I find majority-Black ZIP codes experience gains in all areas of economic activity relative to non-Black communities following the first election of a Black mayor. Across industries, the number of establishments in majority-Black ZIP codes increases, including those that rely on foot traffic. Before breakthrough elections, Black residents are less likely than white residents to identify as self-employed across all cities, but this difference is reduced after an election; however, the cities in which the pre-breakthrough self-employment difference is larger experience no changes to the B–W self-employment gap post-election, suggesting institutional and historical factors may limit Black economic progress in places of higher disparity. |
| Keywords: | Local government; mayors; community development |
| JEL: | J1 H7 J7 R5 |
| Date: | 2025–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:99618 |
| By: | Giulio Cainelli (Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno", University of Padua); Carlo Ciccarelli (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome Tor Vergata, and CAGE Research Centre, Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Roberto Ganau (Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno", University of Padua, and Department of Geography and Environment, LSE) |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in the administrative hierarchy of a country affect development at the city level. We use the 1806 Napoleonic administrative reform implemented in the Kingdom of Naples as a historical experiment to assess whether district capitals with supra-municipal administrative functions enjoyed an urban development premium compared with non-capital cities. We find that district capitals recorded a population growth premium throughout the 19th century (1828–1911) and experienced higher industrialization than non-capital cities, both before and after the Italian unification. We explain our findings through mechanisms relating to public goods provision and transport network accessibility. |
| Keywords: | Napoleonic reforms; local administrative hierarchy; development |
| JEL: | H11 N13 O11 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:workqs:qse_54 |
| By: | Nikita Melnikov; Carlos Schmidt-Padilla; Maria Micaela Sviatschi |
| Abstract: | We study how criminal organizations affect economic development. We exploit a natural experiment in El Salvador, where these criminal organizations emerged due to an exogenous shift in American immigration policy that led to the deportation of gang leaders from the United States to El Salvador. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design that focuses on the gang-created system of borders, we find that individuals in gang-controlled neighborhoods have less material well-being, income, and education than individuals living only 50 meters away but outside of gang territory. None of these discontinuities existed before the arrival of the gangs. A key mechanism behind the results is that gangs restrict individuals’ mobility, affecting their labor-market options by preventing them from commuting to other parts of the city. The results are not determined by high rates of selective migration, differential exposure to extortion and violence, or differences in public goods provision. |
| Keywords: | Gangs, Development, Mobility, Crime |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp672 |
| By: | Nicolás Ajzenman; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Sergei Guriev |
| Abstract: | Does exposure to mass migration affect the attitudes and economic behavior of natives in transit countries? In order to answer this question, we use a unique locality-level panel from the 2010 and 2016 rounds of the Life in Transition Survey and data on the main land routes taken by migrants in 18 European countries during the refugee crisis in 2015. To capture the exogenous variation in natives’ exposure to transit migration, we construct an instrument that is based on each locality’s distance to the optimal routes that minimize traveling time between refugees’ main origins and destinations. We find that the entrepreneurial activity of native population falls considerably in localities that are more exposed to mass transit migration, compared to those located farther away. We explore potential mechanisms and find that exposure to mass transit migration results in lower confidence in government, higher perceived political instability, and less willingness to take risks. We also document an increase n anti-migrant sentiment while attitudes towards other minorities remain unchanged |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpgobi:20250319 |
| By: | C. LE THI (INSEE, OECD); K. MILLOCK (PARIS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, CNRS); J. SIXOU (INSEE) |
| Abstract: | The evidence on whether people adapt to climate extreme events by moving out of vulnerable areas is currently mixed. In this article, we analyse residential mobility following floods using comprehensive French data. Our identification strategy consists in comparing individuals living in areas exposed to flood risk which were actually subject to a flood, with individuals also residing in flood risk areas but which were not subject to flood. Our results suggest that residential mobility increases by 1 percentage point in the two years following a flood. Compared to the baseline inter-municipality mobility rate in our sample, it equates to a 30% increase in the probability of moving out of the municipality of residence following a flood. The effects are strongly heterogeneous. Mobility rates following a flood are observed to be lower for the bottom and the top quintiles of equivalised disposable income than for the middle quintiles. The effects are found to be more pronounced for private renters than for home-owners and others. An analysis of aggregate flows at the municipality level reveals no effect of flooding on residential mobility on average, confirming the importance of using granular individual data. However, the data do suggest changes in the composition of population outflows. We observe a lower share of homeowners in the population outflows from municipalities that have flooded. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Flood, Mobility, Natural Disasters, Residential location choice |
| JEL: | Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2025-06 |
| By: | Dessouky, Maged; Mahtab, Zuhayer |
| Abstract: | In this report, the authors propose an online and large-scale rideshare system that can dynamically match passenger requests with drivers and provide efficient routes to the drivers. The authors developed a greedy insertion-based routing procedure to route thousands of requests in an hour. They incorporated flexible meeting point selection into the framework, which can reduce travel distances for both drivers and passengers. The authors implemented an online incentive and cost-sharing system that can incentivize drivers and passengers for their ride time limit violations and share the cost of a rideshare trip among the passengers fairly. The authors incorporated a request prediction and detour mechanism into the ridesharing framework. To get the most updated travel time and study the effects of ridesharing in a road network, theauthors also incorporate a simulation approach into the framework. Numerical experiments performed on the New York Taxicab dataset and a rural dataset based on Kern and Tulare Counties, California, show that the proposed framework is effective, matching thousands of requests per hour. Results also show that ridesharing can cost significantly less compared to ride-hailing services such as Uber or Lyft, and incorporating flexible meeting points can reduce travel distance by 4% on average. Simulation studies show that ridesharing can reduce total vehicle miles traveled by 13% in Manhattan on average. The proposed framework can help transportation officials design real-time and city-scale rideshare systems to alleviate traffic congestion problems in California. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Ridesharing, Online Systems, Large-Scale Optimization, Simulation |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5zp5778b |
| By: | Mathias Hoffmann; Tetsuji Okazaki; Toshihiro Okubo |
| Abstract: | In Japan in the 1920s, several financial crises and government policy led to bank mergers and the consolidation and expansion of branch networks. Using unique historical bank branch-level lending and deposit data, we show that branch banking integrated peripheral markets with the rest of the country, with large urban banks — those headquartered in Tokyo and Osaka — using deposit supply shocks in peripheral areas to fund lending elsewhere. While these findings support contemporary concerns about branch banking draining funds from peripheral markets, we argue that the export of liquidity by urban banks likely represented an efficient reallocation of credit, driven primarily by competition in funding markets. Faced with high-yielding lending opportunities in central prefectures, urban banks bid up deposit rates in peripheral areas, raising local banks’ funding costs. Local banks responded by lowering intermediation margins and reducing lending to traditional industries, which suggests that they shifted their lending to less risky and more efficient customers. We speculate that this competitive reallocation of capital across regions and sectors allowed banks to maintain a functional specialization in different customer segments, which may explain the continued coexistence of small relationship lenders and large integrated arms-length lenders in local banking markets. |
| Keywords: | bank, branch banking, regional ï¬ nance, bank merger, economic history, Japan, internal capital markets, relationship lending, financial integration |
| JEL: | F36 G2 N2 N9 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-16 |
| By: | Puccioni, F. G.; Cavalcanti, T. |
| Abstract: | Causal evidence on the effectiveness of management in education is limited and ambiguous. In this study, we investigate how cost-effective management practices boost student learning through a randomised field experiment conducted with 31, 760 students from 80 grade 1–9 public schools in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The experiment intervention, delivered by municipal servants exclusively to school managers, involved one-to-one coaching and on-the-job training focused on implementing the World Management Survey (WMS)’s “23 best management practices†for the education sector. We also conducted two doubleblind, in-depth management surveys, one prior to and one following the programme implementation, to evaluate precisely the quality of the management of the schools. The surveys were based on the WMS methodology. After two years, the estimated average treatment effects were 0.928 (0.260) SD for school management, 0.226 (0.059) SD for reading, and 0.237 (0.059) SD for mathematics. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that a one-point improvement in school management (on a 1—5 scale) led to gains of 0.680 (0.245) SD in reading and 0.714 (0.265) SD in mathematics. Students in schools achieving a one-point management improvement were more than two academic years of learning ahead of peers in untreated schools. We present causal estimates amongst the largest in the education intervention literature based on a programme that costs only $15.22 (PPP-adjusted) per student per year. The programme can be applied to any school and has expanded in Brazil. |
| JEL: | C93 H83 I20 J24 M10 |
| Date: | 2025–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2515 |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University) |
| Abstract: | Street intersection counts and densities are ubiquitous measures in transport geography and planning. However, typical street network data and typical street network analysis tools can substantially overcount them. This article explains the three main reasons why this happens and presents solutions to each. It contributes algorithms to automatically simplify spatial graphs of urban street networks---via edge simplification and node consolidation---resulting in faster parsimonious models and more accurate network measures like intersection counts and densities, street segment lengths, and node degrees. These algorithms' information compression improves downstream graph analytics' memory and runtime efficiency, boosting analytical tractability without loss of model fidelity. Finally, this article validates these algorithms and empirically assesses intersection count biases worldwide to demonstrate the problem's widespread prevalence. Without consolidation, traditional methods would overestimate the median urban area intersection count by 14%. However, this bias varies drastically across regions, underscoring these algorithms' importance for consistent comparative empirical analyses. |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xf7wm_v1 |
| By: | Volker, Jamey M.B.; Kim, Keuntae; Hernandez Rios, Kevin |
| Abstract: | A robust body of empirical research demonstrates that as roadway supply increases, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) generally does, too. The evidence is particularly strong with respect to major roadways, like interstate highways (class 1), other freeways and expressways (class 2), and principal arterials (class 3). However, previous literature reviews have found limited empirical evidence as to the relative magnitude of the induced travel effect of expanding minor arterials, collector streets, and local roads. Previous reviews have similarly not reported empirical research on the induced travel effects of other types of roadway facilities, such as auxiliary lanes, ramps, or other types of interchanges. In this project, the authorsconducted a systematic literature review on the induced travel effects of minor arterials, auxiliary lanes, and interchanges (including simple on/off ramps). The authors found that the empirical literature remains limited with respect to auxiliary lanes and interchanges. They found eight studies that include minor arterials in their empirical estimates of induced travel, which collectively indicate that the induced travel elasticity for class 4 minor arterials could be similar to that of class 1-3 facilities. However, none of the studies isolated the induced travel effect from minor arterials specifically. Going forward, the report suggests avenues for future research to help close these research gaps. For example, the authors recommend using case studies of individual roadway expansions to better understand the induced travel effects specific to ramps, interchanges, minor arterials, and auxiliary lanes within specific contexts, especially where larger studies (across multiple facilities, geographies, etc.) have not yet been done. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Induced travel, VMT, travel demand, road construction, traffic, arterials, auxiliary lanes, interchanges |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3xg2q30p |
| By: | Harris, Tom (Harvard University); Iyer, Shankar; Rutter, Tom; Chi, Guanghua; Johnston, Drew; Lam, Patrick; Makinson, Lucy; Silva, Antonio S.; Wessel, Martin; Liou, Mei-Chen |
| Abstract: | Social capital is widely believed to impact a wide range of outcomes including subjective well-being, social mobility, and community health. We aggregate data on over 20 million Facebook users in the United Kingdom to construct several measures of social capital including cross-type connectedness, social network clustering, and civic engagement and volunteering. We find that social networks in the UK bridge class divides, with people below the median of the socioeconomic status distribution (low-SES people) having about half (47%) of their friendships with people above the median (high-SES people). Despite the presence of these cross-cutting friendships, we find evidence of homophily by class: high-SES people have a 28% higher share of high-SES friends. In part, this gap is due to the fact that high-SES individuals live in neighbourhoods, attend schools, and participate in groups that are wealthier on average. However, up to two thirds of the gap is due to the fact that high-SES people are more likely to befriend other high-SES peers, even within a given setting. Cross-class connections vary by region but are positively associated with upward income mobility: low-SES children who grew up in the top 10% most economically connected local authorities in England earn 38% more per year on average (£5, 100) as adults relative to low-SES children in the bottom 10% local authorities. The relationship between upward mobility and connectedness is robust to controlling for other measures of social connection and neighbourhood measures of income, education, and health. We also connect measures of subjective well-being and related concepts with individual social capital measures. We find that individuals with more connections to high-SES people and more tightly-knit social networks report higher levels of happiness, trust, and lower feelings of isolation and social disconnection. We make our aggregated social capital metrics publicly available on the Humanitarian Data Exchange to support future research. |
| Date: | 2025–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kb7dy_v1 |
| By: | Moritz Kuhn; Iourii Manovskii; Xincheng Qiu |
| Abstract: | Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities across these countries in the spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, and job filling, finding, and separation rates. The novel facts on the geography of vacancies and job filling are instrumental in guiding and disciplining the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quanitatively rationalizes why differences in job-separation rates have primary importance in inducing differences in unemployment across space while changes in the job-finding rate are the main driver in unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Local Labor Markets, Unemployment, Vacancies, Search and Matching |
| JEL: | J63 J64 E24 E32 R13 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_609 |
| By: | Mahony, Michael; Rowe, Francisco (University of Liverpool) |
| Abstract: | The ways in which enclaves affect residents labour market outcomes are not fully understood, with outcomes varying substantially across countries, migrant and ethnic groups. In this study, we examine how co-national and co-ethnic enclaves influence migrants’ and ethnic minorities’ labour market outcomes within England. We account for residential sorting through a computational causal modelling framework. Our analysis reveals three key findings. First, migrants and ethnic minorities with poor human capital were disproportionately found in neighbourhoods with high co-ethnic and co-national concentration. This suggests residential sorting occurs in UK enclaves. Second, co-national enclaves were associated with higher employment probabilities (but not higher incomes) amongst male migrants, and neutral to negative employment probabilities and incomes amongst female migrants. Third, co-ethnic enclaves were generally not associated with higher employment probabilities or income, suggesting UK co-ethnic networks do not help most minority ethnic groups to find work. To our knowledge, this study represents the first evidence of positive co-national employment effects within the UK context. These findings could inform policy by highlighting groups whose employment rates are negatively affected by enclaves. These include female migrants and women of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi ethnicity. |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:834ad_v1 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Urban Development-Transport in Urban Areas Gender-Gender and Urban Development Infrastructure Economics and Finance-Infrastructure Economics |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40260 |
| By: | Dodini, Samuel (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Willén, Alexander (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between labor market power and employer discrimination, providing new causal evidence on when and where discriminatory outcomes arise. We leverage job displacements from mass layoffs and firm closures as a source of exogenous job search and combine this with an exact matching approach. We compare native–immigrant worker pairs who held the same job at the same firm, in the same occupation, industry, location, and wage prior to displacement. By tracking post-displacement outcomes across labor markets with differing levels of employer concentration, we identify the causal effect of labor market power on discriminatory behavior. We document four main findings. First, wage and employment discrimination against immigrants is substantial. Second, discrimination is amplified in concentrated labor markets and largely absent in highly competitive ones. Third, product market power has no independent effect, consistent with the idea that wage-setting power is necessary for discriminatory outcomes. Fourth, observed gaps fade with sustained employer–immigrant interactions, consistent with belief-based discrimination and employer learning. Together, these findings show that discrimination is not fixed, but shaped by market structure and firm-level dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination; Immigration; Market Power |
| JEL: | J17 J42 J61 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_010 |
| By: | Fontana, Adele; Jarmulska, Barbara; Schwarz, Claudia; Scheid, Benedikt; Scheins, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Physical climate risks can have a large regional impact, which can influence mortgage loans’ credit risk and should be priced by the lenders. Motivated by the relevance of climate change for financial intermediaries, our paper aims at analysing if physical climate risks are being reflected in residential real estate loan rates of banks. We show that on average banks seem to demand a physical climate risk premium from mortgage borrowers and the premium has increased over recent years. However, there is significant heterogeneity in bank practices. Banks that were identified as “adequately” considering climate risk in the credit risk management by the ECB Banking Supervision charge higher risk premia which have been increasing particularly after the publication of supervisory expectations. In contrast, the lack of risk premia of certain banks shows that ECB diagnostics in the Thematic Review on Climate were accurate in identifying the banks that need stronger supervisory focus. JEL Classification: G12, G21, Q51, Q54, R32 |
| Keywords: | asset pricing, bank lending standards, climate change, residential mortgage backed securities, residential real estate |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253036 |
| By: | Atsuki Kotani |
| Abstract: | The technical change from steam engines to electric motors dramatically transformed manufacturing activities during the Second Industrial Revolution. This paper explores how this technical change progressed and what consequences it brought for the evolution of economic geography. I hypothesize that electric motors powered by purchased electricity lowered barriers to entry in the manufacturing sector due to their significantly lower fixed costs compared to steam engines. To examine this hypothesis, I exploit the historical expansion of electricity grids in early 20th-century Japan and newly digitized establishment-level official records, including information on power sources of establishments. Descriptive evidence shows that electric motors were widely adopted by establishments of all sizes, whereas steam engines were primarily adopted by large establishments, indicating lower fixed costs of electric motors. Using hydropower potential as an instrument, I document that new entrants played a crucial role in driving this technical change and stimulating manufacturing activities. Overall, these findings lend substantial support for the hypothesis. Furthermore, I find that regions with earlier electricity access experienced substantial population growth throughout the early 20th century and exhibit larger economic activity even in the 21st century. These findings suggest a persistent impact of this technological shock: the rapid increase in entrant activities generated agglomeration forces in manufacturing, with accumulated effects still visible in the spatial distribution of economic activity today. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1279 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment-Air Quality & Clean Air Environment-Adaptation to Climate Change Urban Development-Urban Housing |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39872 |
| By: | Alex Armand; Frederica Mendonca; Wayne Aaron Sandholtz; Pedro C. Vicente |
| Abstract: | Urbanization is a force for structural change. However, it has been slow in Sub-Saharan Africa, possibly due to conflicting political interests of national incumbents. We study the political impacts of a randomized program integrating rural migrants in a Mozambican city with the participation of local leaders. We find that the program increases the mobilization of local leaders, who conduct more electoral campaigning. We observe migrants to be more politically active and more supportive of the city incumbent (national opposition). Migrants’ contacts at the origin align with the national opposition and migrate to the city. We conclude that urbanization is political.. |
| Keywords: | Political economy, Urbanization, Rural migrants, Migrant integration, Political behavior, Mozambique, Africa |
| JEL: | D72 O18 J61 O12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp670 |
| By: | Wayne Aaron Sandholtz; Pedro C. Vicente |
| Abstract: | Tax revenue is vital for development, but governments must balance raising revenues with maintaining political support. Partnering with a city government in Mozambique, we experimentally vary the provision of information highlighting the role of municipal tax revenues in 1) local public good provision and 2) local political autonomy. We measure how this information affects property owners’ tax morale and political support for the government. Public goods information raises tax morale, especially in areas of low baseline public good provision, but has no effect on voting. The political message increases electoral support generally, but raises tax morale only among co-partisans. These results suggest that communication about the uses of public revenue offers a politically feasible way to increase tax morale. |
| Keywords: | Tax morale, Public goods, Information, Political economy, Experiments, Mozambique |
| JEL: | O12 H00 P00 C93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp671 |
| By: | Giorgio Musto; Marco Percoco |
| Abstract: | The share of the population living in urban centres has vastly increased in recent decades, and is predicted to further expand in the future. In this context, research on the environmental impact of different urban environments, in terms of both the form and built-up structure of cities, is particularly important to understand whether smart urban design can help mitigate the nefarious impacts of climate change. This study aims at investigating relevant associations between urban form (and specifically, urban compactness) and carbon dioxide emissions of the residential and on-road transport sectors on a global scale. The study also employs a recently established, internationally comparable definition of "urban centre", which follows population-based criteria to eliminate bias from socio-cultural or administrative factors potentially determining city boundaries. The results show that lower levels of emissions of the residential and transport sectors occur in urban environments taking on more compact shapes especially in Africa and Asia, whereas the impact of urban compactness is found to be limited in Europe and North America. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcu:greewp:greenwp25 |
| By: | Klein, Nicholas J. (Conrell University); Palm, Matthew; Connaughton, Stella |
| Abstract: | Rising transportation costs have sparked widespread concern, with media headlines questioning whether the era of inexpensive automobility is over. Yet existing analyses often rely on sticker prices and aggregated sales data, failing to account for the full range of ownership costs such as insurance, fuel, and debt payments. This study bridges that gap by examining transportation affordability and “forced car ownership”—low-income households incurring high automobile costs due to limited alternatives. Using data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey from 1984 to 2023, we analyze trends in transportation expenditures, debt, and affordability using descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS), and binary logistic regression. Our findings reveal that while transportation expenditures have increased in nominal terms, real expenditures have remained relatively stable, and transportation costs as a share of household expenditures have declined since the 1980s. However, significant disparities persist. Low-income households, Black households, and households with multiple vehicles face disproportionate transportation cost burdens, with debt playing a critical role. Households in the bottom income deciles devote significantly higher shares of income to transportation, often driven by auto loans. Regional and demographic variations highlight structural inequities, with rural households and Southerners incurring higher absolute debt levels. These results underscore the inadequacy of existing affordability thresholds and the need for more comprehensive metrics that account for debt. By identifying the determinants of forced car ownership and its uneven distribution, this study offers policy-relevant insights into where transportation affordability initiatives should be targeted, and for whom. |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w4jr2_v1 |
| By: | Rivera, John Paolo R.; Lim, Valerie L.; Sinsay-Villanueva, Leih Maruss; Garcia, Glenda Darlene V.; Tanyag, Ivan Harris; Berroya, Jenard D.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr. |
| Abstract: | As part of the reforms introduced following the first Congressional Commission on Education in 1994, the Teacher Education Council (TEC) was tasked with identifying and establishing Centers of Excellence (COEs) in teacher education in the Philippines. In 2007, this responsibility was transferred to the Commission on Higher Education. The primary goal of this initiative was to enhance the quality of both pre-service and in-service teacher education by evaluating specific parameters outlined by the TEC. Previous studies have indicated that parameters such as teacher qualifications significantly contribute to student performance in basic education. This study examines the role of COEs and Centers of Development (CODs) in maintaining the quality of teacher education more than two decades after this arrangement was first introduced. Specifically, it investigates the benefits and challenges associated with these designations, the measures these centers have taken to fulfill their responsibilities, and their potential role in supporting underperforming teacher education institutions and regions. A mixed methods approach was employed in this study, combining desk research, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Through triangulation, several research themes emerged regarding the nature and dynamics of COEs and CODs. One major finding suggests disparities in the regional distribution of these centers, attributed to stringent compliance requirements. While some intended benefits of these centers remain unclear, they have nonetheless inspired non-COE/COD institutions in their respective regions. The study concludes with a series of actionable recommendations aimed at guiding policymakers in effectively implementing, maintaining, and sustaining these centers nationwide. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | teacher education;teacher quality;mapping;centers of excellence;centers of development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-03 |
| By: | Hempell, Hannah S.; Rancoita, Elena; Coi, Claudio Corte; Dadoukis, Aristeidis |
| Abstract: | Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)helped supporting bank lending to firms and to households in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of TLTRO funding for mortgage loans to households had explicitly not been included into the targeted loan categories of these schemes, thereby, limiting potential unintended side effects on residential real estate markets. This paper, by means of an empirical analysis, assesses the impact of the relaxation of TLTRO III conditions at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic on euro area banks' loan portfolio composition. Our findings suggest that the targeted funding instrument under the relaxed pandemic conditions might, to some extent, have contributed to further fuelling residential real estate vulnerabilities, especially for banks in already vulnerable countries. Our results also contribute to the discussion on policy design and the preservation of the targeted nature of such support measures going forward and their interaction with financial stability. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G01, G21, G28 |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic, residential real estate, TLTRO, unconventional monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253040 |
| By: | Dodini, Samuel (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Lundborg, Petter (Dept. of Economics, Lund University); Løken, Katrine (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Willén, Alexander (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the welfare consequences of reallocating high-skilled labor across borders. A labor demand shock in Norway—driven by a surge in oil prices—substantially increased physician wages and sharply raised the incentive for Swedish doctors to commute across the border. Leveraging linked administrative data and a dose-response difference-in-differences design, we show that this shift doubled commuting rates and significantly reduced Sweden’s domestic physician supply. The result was a persistent rise in mortality, with no corresponding health gains in Norway. These effects were unevenly distributed, disproportionately harming certain places and populations. The underlying mechanism was a severe strain on Sweden’s healthcare system: shortages of young, high-skilled generalists led to more hospitalizations, premature discharges, higher readmission rates, and delayed care. Mortality effects were larger in low-density physician regions and concentrated in older individuals and acute conditions—circulatory, respiratory, and infectious diseases. Our findings show that even temporary, intensive-margin shifts in skilled labor can generate large and unequal welfare losses when public services are already capacity-constrained. |
| Keywords: | Brain Drain; Worker Mobility; Mortality |
| JEL: | H11 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2025_009 |
| By: | Ireri Hernandez Carballo; Gian Maria Mallarino; Marco Percoco |
| Keywords: | EU ETS, Carbon policies, CO2 Emissions, Regional Economics, Economic Geography |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcu:greewp:greenwp27 |
| By: | Ramon Ramon-Muñoz (University of Barcelona); Guillermo Esteban-Oliver (University of Lleida); Josep-Maria Ramon-Muñoz (University of Murcia) |
| Abstract: | The living standard of a population is influenced by numerous factors, which, in addition, may change over time. Transport can be one of them as it acts as a mediator for other factors: it influences the price and supply of essential foods; it affects wages and income; it has an impact on the speed of contagious disease spread; it plays a role in the time to access health services. Using Catalonia as a case study, we explore the relationship between transport linkages and well-being in the late nineteenth century. To test this relationship, we rely on two rich and new datasets; one is on individual male heights, and the other consists of municipal market and port access. We conclude that the transport linkages-height nexus was positive, statistically significant and of a non-negligible magnitude, and, contrary to other studies, we do not find evidence that rural areas were negatively affected by market integration, although urban settings appear to have benefited the most. We suggest that the primary mechanisms underlying this positive association were improved food accessibility, along with urban economies and rural development. |
| Keywords: | Height, market access, living standards, railways, southern Europe |
| JEL: | I12 N33 O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0277 |
| By: | Daniel Fehrle (Kiel University, Department of Economics); Vasilij Konysev (University of Augsburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | German reunification in 1990 marked the first sudden integration of a socialist and capitalist economy. Despite East Germany’s (EG) economic catch-up with West Ger- many (WG), the integration remains unfinished, as indicated by per capita output in EG still being about one-third lower. To study this unfinished regional convergence, we apply wedge-growth accounting using a human capital-augmented, two-sector, two-region model, incorporating labor supply constraints to capture key qualitative differences between EG and WG. Our findings show that sectoral labor and capital wedges are similar within regions and have significantly converged between regions, with EG initially overusing inputs. While productivity in the nontradable goods sector has fully converged, the tradable sector in EG remains less productive than in WG. Counterfactual analysis suggests that this productivity gap, together with persistent net inflows to EG, explains EG’s lower economic activity. However, reducing the in- flows would result in significant welfare losses in EG. Furthermore, we account for the reunification event, identifying a substantial productivity catch-up in EG between 1989 and 1991. Our findings offer clear policy insights, highlighting the trade-offs between economic activity and fiscal transfers. |
| Keywords: | German reunification, Regional convergence, Wedge-growth accounting, Comparative inefficiencies |
| JEL: | E13 E24 N14 O11 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aug:augsbe:348 |
| By: | Markus Behn; Stijn Claessens; Leonardo Gambacorta; Alessio Reghezza |
| Abstract: | We investigate the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy in affecting banks' lending and risk-taking behaviour using rich euro area credit registry data and exploiting a unique setting that combined a sharp and unexpected monetary tightening with a wave of macroprudential tightening initiated before. While, for the average bank, required capital buffer increases did not significantly reduce lending additionally during the monetary tightening, for those banks that became capital-constrained lending fell by about 1.3-1.8 percentage points more for existing credit relationships and new bank-firm relationships were 2.5-4.4 percentage points less likely to be established, both relative to better-capitalized banks. In addition, such banks were more reluctant to pass higher policy interest rates on to their borrowers and took fewer risks, with a greater reduction in the LTV ratio for newly originated loans, and less reliance on risky assets, such as commercial real estate, as collateral. Our analysis shows that when calibrating monetary and macroprudential policies, it is crucial to account for the effects of policy interactions and the role of bank heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | bank lending, risk-taking, macroprudential policy, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E5 E51 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1257 |
| By: | Martin Cesnak (National Bank of Slovakia); Andrej Cupak (National Bank of Slovakia); Pirmin Fessler (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of borrower-based macroprudential policy tightening on mortgage lending in Slovakia, focusing in particular on the role of financial advisors in shaping loan characteristics. Using a comprehensive loan-level dataset from Slovak banks, weanalyzetheeffectsofkeyregulatorytools—Loan-to-Value(LTV), Debt-to-Income(DTI), and Debt Service-to-Income (DSTI) limits — on mortgage risk profiles. Our contributions include: (1) showing that restrictive borrower-based measures (BBMs) reduce the riskiest loans but push lower-risk segments toward regulatory thresholds, thus increasing portfolio risk; (2) demonstrating that advisor-mediated loans tend to have higher amounts, LTVs, DTIs, and longer maturities, raising their riskiness; and (3) finding that strict enough DSTI limits not only reduce DSTI but may also indirectly effect other loan characteristics, such as DTI, LTV ratios, and loan volumes, suggesting broader policy impacts. Additionally, we identifysignificantfront-loadingbehaviorfollowingpolicytighteningannouncements, par-ticularly for advisor-mediated loans. These findings highlight the importance of detailed micro-level data in capturing policy effects and informing more effective macroprudential regulation. |
| JEL: | G21 D18 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1118 |
| By: | Benjamin S. Kay; Albina Khatiwoda |
| Abstract: | This study examines the demographic characteristics of U.S. state border counties, comparing them with those of nonborder counties. The demographic representativeness of border counties is essential for the interpretation of the results in state border-county difference-in-difference analyses, used in state policy evaluations. Our findings reveal that border counties generally have higher proportions of White, older, and disabled populations. We also see occasional instances of wide demographic differences across state boundaries. These differences potentially undermine the external validity and identification of policy evaluations. We illustrate the implications of these finding through a case study, highlighting the need for robustness checks and demographic considerations in border-county policy research. |
| Keywords: | Demographics; Difference-in-Difference Estimates; Event Studies; Natural Experiments; Policy Experiments; US state border counties |
| JEL: | D78 J15 C21 C23 |
| Date: | 2025–03–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-18 |
| By: | Schroeder, Wolfgang; Ziblatt, Daniel; Bochert, Florian |
| Abstract: | January 2025, for the first time in the postwar history of Germany's national parliament, a mainstream political party (the Christian Democratic Union) relied on the support of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) to pass a motion. This prompted intense public debate as many Germans worried that this cooperation was a harbinger of possibly still more cooperation to come. Against this backdrop, our study examines the state of the so-called "firewall" - the self-commitment of established parties to not cooperate with the AfD - in Germany at the district level. To do so, we analyzed more than 11, 000 meetings of councils at the district level across all federal states from mid-2019 to mid-2024. Our analysis shows that in this period no cooperation with the AfD took place in approximately 81.2% of cases where cooperation was possible. While regional differences across Germany can be observed, on average there was no significant difference in levels of cooperation between eastern and western German districts. Even in western German districts, the firewall has not strictly been upheld everywhere. However, larger differences do become apparent when comparing rural and urban districts. Eastern German rural districts, in particular, are at the forefront of cooperation with the AfD, whereas in western German districts, there is no significant urban-rural divide. From a party-political perspective, smaller parties are the most frequent collaborators with the AfD, followed by the FDP and CDU. While the firewall is beginning to crack, as of fall 2024, it had not yet completely collapsed at the district level. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbtod:315200 |
| By: | Eduardo Levy Yeyati; Virginia Robano; Emiliano Pereiro; Camila Porto; Víctor Koleszar |
| Abstract: | Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to help educators tackle persistent challenges—such as complex problem-solving and personalized mentoring—while preserving the essential human elements of judgment and empathy. Focusing on Latin American classrooms, this study explores how AI-powered chatbots can complement teachers in elementary and secondary education. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative evidence, we identify strategies to minimize gender gaps, strengthen teacher preparedness, and maximize student engagement. The study proposes actionable policies, including targeted teacher training, gender-inclusive AI adoption strategies, and scalable hybrid teaching models, as well as a blueprint for testing chatbot effectiveness. By incorporating a gender lens and a phased AI adoption strategy, our study not only outlines best practices for AI deployment but also offers empirical insights into how chatbots impact learning engagement, teacher preparedness, and student equity. Our framework serves as a guide for policymakers aiming to integrate AI tools in a way that supports—not replaces—educators while addressing disparities in access and usage. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, education, ChatGPT, complementarity, LLM, automated tutor, chatbot, classroom, teaching |
| JEL: | C9 I21 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpgobi:202050327 |
| By: | Reichert, Arndt; Simon, Anne |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines the effects of exposure to paternal smoking on child growth, utilizing comprehensive data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey. We use doubly robust estimations to compare the health outcomes of children whose fathers began smoking before pregnancy with children whose fathers abstained from smoking during the same time. We present separate point estimates for children from ethnic minorities and the ethnic majority group to analyze whether smoking is a channel through which the majority-minority gradient in health outcomes is transmitted from one generation to the next. Our findings reveal a significant reduction in the anthropometric height-for-age z-score among children from ethnic minority groups but not from the ethnic majority group, suggesting that smoking is an important conduit for these disparities. We present suggestive evidence that ethnic segregation contributes to the effect heterogeneity of secondhand smoke exposure between the ethnic majority and ethnic minorities. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening tobacco control regulations, such as increasing tobacco taxes and enforcing smoking bans, and point to the need to address ethnic segregation to mitigate the disproportionate impact of second-hand smoke exposure on ethnic minority children. |
| Keywords: | secondhand smoke, birth weight, height-for-age, z-scores, ethnic disparities, development |
| JEL: | I14 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-736 |
| By: | Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay (Indian Institute of Management, Indore); Bharat Ramaswami (Ashoka University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines, within a panel data setting, the spatial impacts on prices and on wages, of India’s trade liberalization in edible oils. Starting, from near-autarkic policies that prohibited import of edible oils, imports surged to meet most of the domestic demand, following trade liberalization in the 1990s. While the domestic oils sector provides negligible employment, it uses domestically grown non-traded oilseeds which occupy 14% of cultivable land and are next in importance only to the cereal grains of rice and wheat. These oilseeds are grown in the dryland arid regions where farm incomes are low and precarious. To examine spillover effects , the paper constructs geographically varying exposure to trade shocks that depend on the cultivable area planted with oilseeds. Consistent with a model of spatial price competition, the paper finds greater price impacts in the high oilseed growing regions. On the other hand, spatial impacts on wages are not significant suggesting labor reallocation. While we do find significantly greater cropping pattern and production responses in the high oilseeds growing regions, such evidence does not extend to labor reallocation outside agriculture. |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:131 |
| By: | Bonander, Carl; Hammar, Olle; Jakobsson, Niklas; Bensch, Gunther; Holzmeister, Felix; Brodeur, Abel |
| Abstract: | Islam (2019) reports results from a randomized field experiment in Bangladesh that examines the effects of parent-teacher meetings on student test scores in primary schools. The reported findings suggest strong positive effects across multiple subjects. In this report, we demonstrate that the school-level randomization cannot have been conducted as the author claims. Specifically, we show that the nine included Bangladeshi unions all have a share of either 0% or 100% treated or control schools. Additionally, we uncover irregularities in baseline scores, which for the same students and subjects vary systematically across the author's data files in ways that are unique to either the treatment or control group. We also discovered data on two unreported outcomes and data collected from the year before the study began. Results using these data cast further doubt on the validity of the original study. Moreover, in a survey asking parents to evaluate the parent-teacher meetings, we find that parents in the control schools were more positive about this intervention than those in the treated schools. We also find undisclosed connections to two additional RCTs. |
| Keywords: | Reproduction, Student outcomes, Field experiments, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | B41 C12 I25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:214 |
| By: | Süße, Marvin; Grigoriadis, Theocharis |
| Abstract: | Gerschenkron (1962) argued that public institutions such as the State Bank of the Russian Empire spurred the country's industrialization. We test this assertion by exploiting plant-level variation in access to State Bank branches using a unique geocoded factory data set. Employing an identification strategy based on geographical distances between banks and factories, our results show improved access to public banking encouraged faster growth in factory-level revenue, mechanization, and labor productivity. In line with theories of late industrialization, we also find evidence that public credit mattered more in regions where commercial banks were fewer and markets were smaller. |
| Keywords: | industrialization, economic geography, banking, industrial policy |
| JEL: | G28 L52 N23 O14 P41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:315202 |
| By: | Bin Ramli, Muhammad Sukri |
| Abstract: | Malaysia has become a major refugee-hosting country in ASEAN, facing considerable strain as it shoulders a disproportionate burden of refugee protection despite the absence of a formal legal framework for refugee status. This paper examines the mounting challenges Malaysia faces at the intersection of increasing climate-induced displacement and the vulnerabilities of these populations. Malaysia is also struggling with severe climate change impacts, such as flooding, while managing growing refugee populations. Recurrent climate threats, notably severe monsoon flooding which disproportionately impacts refugees and asylum seekers residing in flood-prone, affordable areas, exacerbate these vulnerabilities. This research investigates the interplay between humanitarian protection and climate vulnerability, highlighting the precarious livelihoods and housing conditions of displaced individuals in Malaysia, and how the absence of legal recognition compounds their susceptibility to climate extremes, creating a dual crisis. Analyzing the dynamic relationship between climate threats, refugee vulnerability, and the resultant strain on Malaysia, this study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive climate action and a collective response within ASEAN to mitigate these challenges. Furthermore, it includes a comparative analysis of Malaysia’s challenges with other ASEAN countries. By examining the causal links between these factors and analyzing Malaysia's current situation, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the necessity for robust regional and national frameworks. These frameworks must not only address the immediate needs of displaced populations but also prioritize long-term climate resilience and sustainable development strategies across the ASEAN region. |
| Date: | 2025–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zra4x_v1 |
| By: | Yatish Arya (Department of Economics, Ashoka University); Amit Chaudhary (Gillmore Centre for Financial Technology, Warwick Business School, United Kingdom); Anisha Garg (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | Religious groups sometimes resist welfare-enhancing interventions, impacting human capital. Can resistance to secular education arise when rulers sharing religious identity with a group are deposed by foreign powers? Focusing on colonial India, we analyze the impact of shared religious identity between deposed local rulers and religious groups on literacy. Muslim literacy is lower where British authorities replaced a Muslim ruler, and Hindu literacy is lower when the ousted ruler was Hindu. Addressing OVB, we use literacy differences, complemented by an IV approach. Our results show that the effect of shared religious identity on literacy rates depended on the historical ties between deposed rulers and their subjects: in districts where ousted rulers had historical connections to their co-religionists, there was greater resistance to education introduced by the colonizers. |
| Date: | 2025–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:138 |
| By: | Dion, Francois PhD; Patire, Anthony; Qan, Qijan |
| Abstract: | This document provides a description of the Aimsun Next model that was developed for the I-210 Pilot Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) System. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1xw8q5j1 |
| By: | Michel Grosz; Tomás Monarrez |
| Abstract: | We study the long-term effect of the Great Recession on federal student loan borrowing and repayment. Using detailed longitudinal data on federal student loan borrowers, we compare labor markets that faced varying degrees of unemployment severity during the economic downturn. On average, a one percentage point increase in Great Recession unemployment rates caused a 7% rise in total outstanding debt and 6% percent rise in defaulted borrowers. Across institutional sectors, the Great Recession accounted on average for between 19-32% of the total increase in undergraduate student debt and 10 25% of the total increase in defaults. Borrowers who were students at the onset of the recession saw the largest effects on accrued debt, due to delayed graduation and lengthened enrollment spells |
| Keywords: | student loans; Great Recession; unemployment; higher education finance |
| JEL: | I22 G51 H81 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:99848 |
| By: | Tesseltje de Lange; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This policy brief draws on the findings of Tverdostup et al. (2025) to examine Austrian firms’ responses to labour shortages through automation and migration. Like many European nations, Austria has been grappling with labour shortages over the past decade. These shortages have been influenced by demographic shifts, economic cycles and evolving industry demands. Understanding these trends is crucial for formulating effective policy responses, particularly in the realms of migration, education and automation, three policy domains central to our Horizon Europe project formulating a Global Strategy for Skills, Migration and Development (GS4S). The referenced empirical evidence indicates that automation largely complements human labour, notably benefiting low-educated migrants who are not from the European Economic Area (EEA), but posing challenges for highly educated migrant workers. Policy recommendations include improving EU migration policies, streamlining the recognition of qualifications, developing targeted training initiatives, and incentivising responsible automation practices to foster inclusive labour market growth and resilience. |
| Keywords: | automation, labour migration, skills, labour shortages, substitution, EU |
| JEL: | F22 O15 K37 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:95 |
| By: | Wu, Jialin; Liu, Hongbo; ZHENG, Chen |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential of tryvertising in accommodations using an experimental research design. By building a moderated mediation model, this research offers theoretical underpinnings to comprehend how and when tryvertising works in peer-to-peer accommodations. The results demonstrate that tryvertising is more effective in Airbnb than in a hotel context, and more effective in an entire property than a private room in Airbnb. Different accommodation settings represent different levels of territoriality, with higher territoriality leading to higher psychological ownership, and hence higher purchase intentions towards tryvertised products. Such effects are moderated by impermanence which is a threat to psychological ownership. This research suggests avenues marketers/hosts can optimize tryvertising effectiveness in peer-to-peer accommodations, by increasing guests’ perceived territoriality and psychological ownership. |
| Date: | 2023–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qy2t9_v1 |
| By: | Anton Yang (Yale University); Jianwei Ai (Renmin University of China); Costas Arkolakis (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new methodology to detect and measure economic activity using geospatial data and apply it to steel production, a major industrial pollution source worldwide. Combining plant output data with geospatial data, such as ambient air pollutants, nighttime lights, and temperature, we train machine learning models to predict plant locations and output. We identify about 40% (70%) of plants missing from the training sample within a 1 km (5 km) radius and achieve R2 above 0.8 for output prediction at a 1 km grid and at the plant level, as well as for both regional and time series validations. Our approach can be adapted to other industries and regions, and used by policymakers and researchers to track and measure industrial activity in near real time. |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2435 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction-Migration and Development Social Protections and Labor-Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40131 |
| By: | Ye Chen (Capital University of Economics and Business); Peter C.B. Phillips (Yale University, University of Auckland, Singapore Management University); Shuping Shi (Macquarie University) |
| Abstract: | To safeguard economic and financial stability policymakers regularly take actions designed to increase resilience to systemic risks and curb speculative market behavior. To assess the effectiveness of such mitigation policies, we introduce a counterfactual approach tailored to accommodate the mildly explosive dynamics that occur during speculative bubbles. We derive asymptotics of the estimated treatment effect under a common factor structure that allows for explosive, I(1), and stationary factors, thereby having applicability to a wide range of prevailing economic conditions. An inferential procedure is proposed for the policy treatment effect that has asymptotic validity and demonstrates satisfactory finite sample performance. An empirical analysis examines the monetary policy of interest rate hikes implemented by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, beginning in October 2021.This policy exerted a statistically significant cooling effect on all regional housing markets in New Zealand. Our findings show that this policy led to 20%-33% reductions in house prices in five out of six regions seven months after the enactment of the interest rate hike. |
| Date: | 2025–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2433 |
| By: | Daniel Mangrum; Crystal Wang |
| Abstract: | In our companion post, we highlighted how the pandemic and subsequent policy actions disrupted trends in the growth of student loan balances, the pace of repayment, and the classification of delinquent loans. In this post, we discuss how these changes affected the credit scores of student loan borrowers and how the return of negative reporting of past due balances will impact the credit standing of student loan borrowers. We estimate that more than nine million student loan borrowers will face significant drops in credit score once delinquencies appear on credit reports in the first half of 2025. |
| Keywords: | student loans; household debt |
| JEL: | G51 I22 |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:99734 |
| By: | BROADBERRY, Stephen; FUKAO, Kyoji; GUAN, Hanhui |
| Abstract: | Comparing the major Asian economies of China, India and Japan without taking account of variations in size suggests that the Asian Little Divergence began in the eighteenth century when Japan overtook first India and then China. However, the Great Divergence debate has focused on when the leading regions of the declining countries first fell behind and there was significant regional variation in GDP per capita in all three countries. Allowing for regional variation significantly changes the dating of the Asian Little Divergence: (1) In China, the Yangzi Delta, with a population about the same size as the whole of Japan, did not fall behind until around the time of the Meiji restoration in 1868. (2) In Japan, the Kinai region forged ahead of the Yangzi Delta around 1800. (3) In India, Mysore remained behind the Yangzi Delta throughout the period 1600-1870 and therefore has less significance for the timing of the Asian Little Divergence. |
| Keywords: | Regions, GDP per capita, Asia, Little Divergence |
| JEL: | N15 N95 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:764 |
| By: | Khuderchuluun Batsukh; Nicolas Groshenny; Naveed Javed |
| Abstract: | We highlight the importance of high and low states of household debt for the transmission of monetary policy in Australia during the period from 1994Q1 to 2019Q3. Using a state-dependent local projection model, we demonstrate that the impact of a monetary policy shock varies depending on the level of household debt. In particular, in low household debt conditions, output, investment, house prices, household debt-to-GDP, and debt-to-asset increase significantly to an expansionary monetary shock, while the responses of these variables are largely muted when the households are in a high-debt state. We infer from our results that the “home equity loan channel†may be active when household indebtedness is moderate, but inactive when it is high. We conjuncture that this channel likely played a crucial role in the transmission of monetary policy in Australia, and potentially accounted for the diminished effects of monetary policy under high household debt conditions. |
| Keywords: | household debt, monetary policy, home equity loans |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-13 |
| By: | Saloni Khurana (IIFT andWorld Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA); Kanika Mahajan (Ashoka University, Rajiv Gandhi Education City, Haryana, India, 131029.); Kunal Sen (UNU-WIDER, Katajanokanlaituri 6 B FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland & University of Manchester.) |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative data on employment and earnings, this paper documents a fall in wage inequality in India over the last two decades. It then examines the role played by increasing minimum wages for the lowest skilled workers in India in contributing to the observed decline. Exploiting regional variation in changes in minimum wages over time in the country, we find that a 1% increase in minimum wages led to a 0.17% increase in wages for workers in the lowest quintile. This effect is smaller at upper wage quintiles and insignificant for the highest wage quintile. Counterfactual wage estimations show that the increase in minimum wages explains 26% of the decline in wage inequality in India during 1999-2018. These findings underscore the important role played by rising minimum wages in reducing wage disparities in India. |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:139 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Information and Communication Technologies-Poverty Reduction & ICT Social Protections and Labor-Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40121 |
| By: | Ferreira, Miguel A.; Adelino, Manuel; Oliveira, Miguel |
| Abstract: | Large-scale debt forbearance is a key policy tool during crises, yet targeting is challenging due to information asymmetries. Using transaction-level data from a Portuguese bank during COVID-19, we find that financially fragile households are more likely to enter forbearance, irrespective of income shocks. Mortgage payment suspension increases consumption and savings, but effects differ across households. Low liquid wealth and income are associated with a higher marginal propensity to consume. Additionally, ineligible households accessing forbearance show a higher propensity to consume than eligible ones. Our results suggest that observable household characteristics can help in the design of effective debt relief policies. JEL Classification: E21, E62, G28, G50, H31 |
| Keywords: | consumption, COVID-19 pandemic, debt forbearance, income, mortgages |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253034 |
| By: | Aparajita Dasgupta (Ashoka University); Devvrat Raghav (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | How does access to infrastructure mediate the processes of structural transformation in the presence of climate shocks? By exploiting a large-scale rural road construction program in India, we ask whether rural road connectivity can preserve the gains from structural transformation in emerging markets. In comparison to the existing literature, we provide a newer framework to study the effects of road infrastructure access in mitigating the impact of climate shocks on structural transformation. The program roll out criteria allows us to employ a fuzzy difference-in-discontinuity design to provide the first line of causal evidence in this area. Overall, we find a mixed effect of rural road connectivity on agricultural participation. Interestingly, we find that while road connectivity enables exits from farm labour it also raises the share of households in cultivation. Importantly, while temperature shocks drive down local demand, this effect is somewhat counteracted by access to paved roads. Our results suggest the role of rural infrastructure policies in alleviating the burden of rising temperature, which has first order policy relevance in the context of designing policy instruments to tackle long-term climate change, not just within the country but for all rural regions across the developing world. |
| Keywords: | Climate Shocks; India; Infrastructure; Labour markets; Road access |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ash:wpaper:122 |
| By: | Dalal Moosa; Joanna Abdel Ahad; Vanessa Moreira |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor-Employment and Unemployment Social Protections and Labor-Work & Working Conditions Social Protections and Labor-Labor Law Social Protections and Labor-Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40069 |
| By: | Yashodhan Ghorpade; Muhammad Saad Imtiaz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between violent conflict and the willingness of potential migrants to accept lower skilled work (occupational downgrading). The paper develops a theoretical model of migration decisions and tests it using an innovative survey module administered to high-skilled youth in Myanmar. Consistent with the predictions of the model, the findings show that insecurity induced by conflict reduces the additional wage premium that individuals would typically demand for taking on lower skilled work, indicating greater amenability to occupational downgrading. These effects are particularly pronounced for disadvantaged groups, such as women, ethnic minorities, and those with weaker labor market networks or English language skills. The results are driven by respondents from areas under territorial contestation, and those interviewed after the sudden activation of a conscription law during the survey. This further confirms how security considerations may override the preference for skill-appropriate job matching, suggesting that conflict may worsen labor market outcomes and reduce potential gains from migration, especially for disadvantaged groups. |
| Date: | 2025–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11075 |
| By: | Seibert, Holger (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Youth unemployment in Germany has fallen over a long period of time but has recently risen again. This report examines the factors that determine the level of regional unemployment among young people without qualifications. Among other things, these factors are linked to regional training opportunities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ausbildungsplatzangebot ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Ausbildungsstellenbewerber ; Ausbildungsstellenmarkt ; Ausbildungsverzichter ; Auswirkungen ; Bundesländer ; Jugendarbeitslosigkeit ; mismatch ; nicht formal Qualifizierte ; regionale Disparität ; regionaler Arbeitsmarkt ; regionaler Vergleich ; Stellenbesetzungsprobleme ; Arbeitslosenquote ; Ungelernte ; 2010-2024 |
| Date: | 2025–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202505 |
| By: | Damis, Sariana |
| Abstract: | Economic development is inseparable from economic growth. Economic growth is one of the measuring tools to measure regional economic conditions. Regional economic growth is an indicator of the success of regional economic development. This study aims to determine the effect of labor and Human Development Index on Gross Regional Domestic Product in Sidenreng Rappang district and to determine which variables are more dominant in influencing Gross Regional Domestic Product income in Sidenreng Rappang district. This study uses a type of quantitative research. The data source comes from the documentation. The population in this study is the workforce and the human development index and Gross Regional Domestic Product, using a 10 year sample. The data analysis technique in this study used multiple linear regression analysis with the help of SPSS 25 software. The results showed that simultaneously the independent variables had a significant and positive relationship with the dependent variable. Partially, the labor variable has no effect and is not significant, while the human development index variable has a positive and significant effect on Gross Regional Domestic Product. The results of the regression value of R square (R2) of 0.982 means that the independent variable explains that labor and the human development index have an effect of 98.2% while the remaining 1.8% is influenced by other variables outside the study. |
| Date: | 2023–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kmdtg_v1 |