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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Hornbeck, Richard; Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand |
| Abstract: | We examine "agglomeration shadows" that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and "wave interference" that we show in simulations. We use the locations of ancient ports near the Mediterranean, which seeded modern cities, to estimate agglomeration shadows cast on nearby areas. We find that empirically, as in the simulations, detectable agglomeration shadows emerge for large cities around ancient ports. These patterns extend to modern city locations more generally and illustrate how encouraging growth in particular places can discourage growth of nearby areas. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration shadow; urban hierarchy; new economic geography |
| JEL: | R12 N9 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126770 |
| By: | Irmert, Natalie; Bietenbeck, Jan; Mattisson, Linn; Weinhardt, Felix |
| Abstract: | We study whether autonomous schools, which are publicly funded but can operate more independently than government-run schools, affect student achievement and school segregation across 15 countries over 16 years. Our triple-differences regressions exploit between-grade variation in the share of students attending autonomous schools within a given country and year. While autonomous schools do not affect overall achievement, effects are positive for high-socioeconomic status students and negative for immigrants. Impacts on segregation mirror these findings, with evidence of increased segregation by socioeconomic and immigrant status. Rather than creating "a rising tide that lifts all boats", autonomous schools increase inequality. |
| Keywords: | autonomous schools; student achievement; school segregation |
| JEL: | I21 J15 |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126819 |
| By: | Benz, Pierre; Strebel, Michael A.; Di Capua, Roberto; Mach, André |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have focused on wealth elites’ housing, including their spatial and social exclusiveness. The insertion of the power elite in urban space has, however, largely been left unexplored. By combining positional and residential information on over 7, 400 urban elites, we study how academic, economic, and political elites’ residential patterns have evolved from 1890 to 2000 in the three largest Swiss cities (Basel, Geneva, Zurich). First, we uncover a long-term dynamic of suburbanization, which however does not result in even spatial dispersion: while gradually abandoning center cities, elites do not randomly disperse in the surrounding municipalities. Rather, they tend to settle in very specific areas. Second, we find that spatial differentiation of urban elites’ residences varies across elite categories: economic elites tend to geographically segregate from both academic and political elites over the course of the twentieth century and settle in more privileged areas. At the same time, academic and left political elites, while historically living in distinct neighborhoods, tend to converge at the end of the century, echoing new similarities in their profile. This highlights the importance of studying the urban power elites’ residential patterns in a long-term perspective. |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mkaqx_v1 |
| By: | Brian Greaney; Andrii Parkhomenko; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic urban model combining features of quantitative spatial and macro-housing models. It includes multiple locations, forward-looking households, commuting, costly migration, uninsurable income risk, housing tenure choice, and housing frictions. The model operates in continuous time, with shocks and choices occurring at discrete intervals. This ``mixed time'' approach enables efficient computation of steady-state equilibria and transition dynamics, even with thousands of location pairs. Using a model of the San Francisco Bay Area, we show how forward-looking behavior, spatial frictions, and transition dynamics reshape estimated effects of spatially heterogeneous shocks and policies, traditionally studied with static models. |
| JEL: | C63 G11 J61 R10 R21 R23 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33512 |
| By: | Vitale, Tommaso Prof (Sciences Po); Cafora, Silvia; Faccini, Jacopo Lareno |
| Abstract: | Italy faces significant challenges in ensuring the right to housing, as evidenced by its deeply entrenched housing culture that prioritizes home ownership. This policy brief examines the structural issues underlying Italy’s housing crisis and proposes innovative policies aimed at decommodifying housing and reviving the right to housing for all citizens. The document underscores the urgent need for comprehensive policy reform to address exclusionary dynamics and the commodification of housing. ### Context and Current Challenges In Italy, housing policies have historically favored home ownership, contributing to a dual and polarized housing system. This system has led to a stark separation between private and public housing supplies, with public housing becoming increasingly marginal. This polarization has resulted in two contrasting scenarios: highly marginal territories characterized by depopulation and loss of property values, and densely populated urban areas experiencing rising property values and increased risk of exclusion from housing. Moreover, Italy’s public expenditure on housing is notably low, currently under 0.1% of GDP compared to the European average of 0.4%. This insufficient investment has led to a lack of affordable housing, particularly in attractive cities such as Milan, Florence, and Rome, which draw new populations but face severe housing shortages. ### Main Policy Proposals The policy brief proposes a multifaceted approach to address these issues, focusing on increasing public investment, redefining social housing, enhancing inclusivity, and strengthening preventive measures. The key proposals are: #### 1. Increasing Public Investment - **Restore and Increase Public Expenditure**: Rebuild a nationwide housing fund by allocating a constant share of GDP to housing, aiming to match the European average of 0.4%. This would involve significant political intentionality to ensure sustained funding. #### 2. Redefining Social Housing - **Reform Social Housing Regulations**: Stringently define social housing to emphasize social rental properties and exclude for-sale properties. This aims to overcome the broad and undifferentiated concept of ‘social’ housing currently prevalent in Italy’s policies. #### 3. Enhancing Inclusivity - **Support for Marginalized Groups**: Revise access criteria for public social housing to eliminate discriminatory practices such as residence time requirements. Additionally, invest in public intermediaries like Social Rental Agencies to facilitate the inclusion of marginalized profiles in the housing market. #### 4. Strengthening Preventive Measures - **Preventive Housing Arrangements**: Establish a non-compliance arrears fund shared by various government levels, linked to the need indicated by eviction requests and housing hardship indicators. This would include incentives for households to effectively manage housing-related expenses. ### Additional Policy Directions The policy brief also highlights the need for a more progressive and transparent approach to managing real estate and land assets, both public and private, to support the production of affordable housing. It emphasizes breaking down the false dichotomy between ecological transition and affordable housing. #### Institutional Reorganization - **Reorganize Municipal Housing Divisions**: Innovate internal municipal structures to better address housing issues. This includes creating new councils and institutes dedicated to housing policies and renovation, drawing inspiration from successful models in cities like Barcelona. To decommodify housing and revive the right to housing in Italy, the policy brief stresses the importance of a comprehensive, multi-level policy framework that includes increased public investment, stricter definitions and regulations, and enhanced inclusivity and preventive measures. By implementing these proposals, Italy can move towards a more equitable and accessible housing system, ensuring that housing is recognized and treated as a fundamental right for all its citizens. |
| Date: | 2024–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:865t9_v1 |
| By: | Takeda, Kohei; Yamagishi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | We provide new theory and evidence on the resilience of internal city structure after a large shock, analyzing the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Exploiting newly digitized data, we document that the city structure recovered within five years after the bombing. Our new dynamic quantitative model of internal city structure incorporates commuting, forward-looking location choices, migration frictions, agglomeration forces, and heterogeneous location fundamentals. Strong agglomeration forces in our estimated model explain Hiroshima's recovery, and we find an alternative equilibrium where the city center did not recover. These results highlight the role of agglomeration forces, multiple equilibria, and expectations in urban dynamics. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; history; expectations; atomic bombing; spatial dynamics |
| JEL: | C73 N45 O18 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126823 |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | The recent development of quantitative urban models provides a new set of tools for evaluating transport improvements. Conventional cost-benefit analyses are typically undertaken in partial equilibrium. In contrast, quantitative urban models characterize the spatial distribution of economic activity within cities in general equilibrium. We compare evaluations of a transport improvement using conventional cost-benefit analysis, sufficient statistics approaches based on changes in market access, and model-based counterfactuals. We show that quantitative urban models predict a reorganization of economic activity within cities in response to a transport improvement, which can lead to substantial differences between the predictions of these three approaches for large changes in transport costs. |
| Keywords: | transportation, spatial economics, urban economics |
| Date: | 2025–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2080 |
| By: | Chen, Ying; Cheshire, Paul; Wang, Xiangqing; Wang, You-Sin |
| Abstract: | Home delivery reduced the value of cities as locations to access variety in durable consumption goods. Food delivery services (FDS) are doing the same for restaurants. Home-streaming of sports or home-delivered restaurant meals are close but not perfect substitutes for the live experiences. Here we investigate the impact of FDS in Beijing. Employing a Bartik IV strategy, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of FDS-accessible restaurants generates a 7.1% increase in property values. The premium is estimated as equivalent to half a top-quality school. FDS appears to be changing how cities deliver welfare from consumption services and so modifies urban land rents and housing attributes. Its value and that of restaurant variety increase with household size but seems to reduce the value of well-equipped kitchens. |
| Keywords: | food delivery services; impact of choice in consumer services; hedonic analysis; changing urban consumption patterns |
| JEL: | D21 R21 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126783 |
| By: | Peng, Cong; Wang, Yao; Chen, Wenfan |
| Abstract: | This study explores the impacts of road improvements in a country characterized by "urbanization without growth". Our analysis reveals that, although road upgrades increase population growth, they do not significantly advance economic development and tend to worsen living conditions. Utilizing a combination of empirical evidence and a spatial equilibrium model, we identify that constrained industrial capacities and congestion from high population density limit the efficacy of road development policies in enhancing GDP and overall welfare. Our results also indicate that strategically targeting road placement in regions with higher economic productivity could yield better economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | road improvements; urbanization; industrialization; quantitative spatial model; satellite imagery; africa |
| JEL: | O1 R1 R4 |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126771 |
| By: | Sofia Gomes; Luis Catela Nunes; Pedro Freitas |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the effect of teacher turnover on student achievement. We study an educational system characterized by a centralized teacher allocation model and estimate the causal effects of teacher turnover on students’ exam scores. A small but statistically significant negative effect is found, which is mainly attributed to organizational disruption at the school level and seems to persist for up to two years. We find heterogeneous effects, with students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds and with lower previous achievement being more negatively affected. We conclude that students in lower-achieving and socially disadvantaged schools are more exposed to teacher turnover, and this turnover penalizes these students more. We also find that it is the turnover among short-term contract teachers that drives the negative effects. |
| Keywords: | Education, Teacher turnover, Student achievement, Schools |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp663 |
| By: | Billings, Stephen B.; Soliman, Adam |
| Abstract: | Since the Great Recession, the traditional path to wealth creation through home ownership has stalled and worsened for many minority households. One potential and largely unexplored driver of this trend is the growing presence of institutional investors that purchase single-family homes and convert them to permanent rentals. We find that large institutional investors alone have decreased homeownership rates in Black neighborhoods in high growth southern cities like Charlotte, North Carolina by 4 percentage points. Using a granular spatial difference-in-differences estimator, we show that an institutional investor purchase leads to a 2% decline in neighboring property values. This effect is almost exclusively limited to majority Black suburban neighborhoods. These property value declines are also associated with commonly hypothesized social spillovers from the loss of homeownership, namely increases in crime and decreases in property maintenance and political participation. |
| Keywords: | homeownership; racial wealth gap; institutional investors |
| JEL: | R30 H80 |
| Date: | 2023–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126821 |
| By: | Ball, Michael; Cheshire, Paul; Hilber, Christian A. L.; Yu, Xiaolun |
| Abstract: | We explore the determinants of the speed of residential development after dwelling construction starts. Using a sample of over 140, 000 residential developments in England from 1996 to 2015 and employing an instrumental variable- and fixed effects-strategy, we find that positive local demand shocks reduce the construction duration in a location with average supply constraints and developer local market power. However, this reduction is less pronounced in areas (i) where local planning is more restrictive, (ii) that are more built-up, and (iii) where competition in the local development sector is lower. We provide a model that rationalises these results. Our findings imply that the slow build out rate in England is the consequence of both market and policy failures. |
| Keywords: | construction lag; land use regulation; market power; housing supply; housing demand; housing market dynamics |
| JEL: | D43 G28 R21 R31 R38 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126820 |
| By: | Tom Doolittle; Arthur Fliegelman; Ruth Leung |
| Abstract: | The commercial and residential real estate markets have shown resilience until recently, but their strength will be tested if a recession occurs. Keywords: commercial real estate, real estate market |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:ofrblg:23-07 |
| By: | Kleineberg, Tatjana Karina; Murray, Sally Beth; Tang, Yulu; Kaw, Jon Kher |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run welfare and productivity effects of transit improvements in the Greater Amman Municipality. The paper builds a rich quantitative spatial model that includes many aspects of the economic geography of Amman. It studies the effects of new bus rapid transit lines that improve the connection of more peripheral areas to the city center, in two phases: phase 1 (approximately) connecting the north-eastern and north-western regions, and phase 2 adding the southern and south-westerns regions. It finds that the bus rapid transit increases output by 4.4 to 5 percent in phase 1 and 7.2 to 7.6 percent in phase 2. Workers in manufacturing benefit the most, and they also lived farthest from the city center before the bus rapid transit was established. Welfare in all neighborhoods increases, with the largest increases at the outer ends of the new bus rapid transit lines. Phase 1 generally promotes densification and welfare in already dense locations, while phase 2 encourages additional densification to the south. Our preliminary analysis of the interaction of zoning restrictions with the bus rapid transit suggests that legal zoning limits are binding in a few locations where excess demand for real estate after the expansion of bus rapid transit is expected to be large. |
| Date: | 2024–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10802 |
| By: | Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Lingatong, Edmar E.; Relos, Charlotte Marjorie L. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines has one of the highest school bullying rates in the world. While its nature, causes, and impacts are well-documented in the international literature, local evidence remains limited and at times conflicting. This study assesses the contribution of bullying exposure to student achievement in a large-scale international student assessment and infers its potential long-term implications. Differences in bullying exposure explain around 0.05 standard deviations of the gap in average student achievement between proficient and nonproficient students, which could potentially cost the Philippines around PHP 10–20 billion annually in foregone economic activity. Important risk factors for being the “most bullied” around the world are also documented, along with highlighting spatial disparities in bullying risks. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | school bullying;basic education;learning loss;learning achievement;small area estimate;machine learning |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-45 |
| By: | Feng, Zixin; Zhao, Qunshan; Heppenstall, Alison |
| Abstract: | The growth of electric vehicle adoption in the UK has reached a bottleneck due to the limited availability of public chargers. Understanding the usage patterns of existing public chargers and the factors influencing them is necessary for planning future charging infrastructure. Using charging session data from public EV chargers in Great Britain, collected between December 6, 2023, and March 31, 2024, we analysed usage patterns and driving factors in three case regions: Greater London, Greater Manchester, and the Central Belt of Scotland. Spatial regression models were applied to explore relationships between public charger usage rates and various contextual factors over space and time. Our findings show significant regional differences in public charger usage patterns. In Greater London, the higher prevalence of flats limits access to home charging, leading to greater reliance on public chargers, particularly for nighttime charging near residential flats. There is also a high preference for faster charging options and quick turnaround times, likely driven by high parking fees and the intensive travel schedules caused by traffic congestion. In Greater Manchester, drivers rely more on public chargers located in areas densely populated with flats, whereas areas with higher densities of houses or terraces show lower reliance on public chargers. In the Central Belt of Scotland, demand for public chargers is particularly high near motorways, likely due to the significant volume of long-distance commutes between major cities in the region. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of developing region-specific strategies for charger deployment to support a sustainable and efficient charging network. |
| Date: | 2025–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:u5yn3_v1 |
| By: | Michelle Spiegel; Leah Clark; Thurston Domina; Emily Penner; Paul Hanselman; Paul Y. Yoo; Andrew Penner |
| Abstract: | Children from families across the income distribution attend public schools, making schools and classrooms potential sites for interaction between more- and less-affluent children. However, limited information exists regarding the extent of economic integration in these contexts. We merge educational administrative data from Oregon with measures of family income derived from IRS records to document student exposure to economically diverse school and classroom peers. Our findings indicate that affluent children in public schools are relatively isolated from their less affluent peers, while low- and middle-income students experience relatively even peer income distributions. Students from families in the top percentile of the income distribution attend schools where 20 percent of their peers, on average, come from the top five income percentiles. A large majority of the differences in peer exposure that we observe arise from the sorting of students across schools; sorting across classrooms within schools plays a substantially smaller role. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-16 |
| By: | Kim, Geon |
| Abstract: | Since 2017, the surge in housing prices in South Korea has raised concerns about housing affordability and price bubbles. To dampen the escalating housing prices by regulating speculative demand, the land transaction permit (LTP) area is designated in the Gangnam area in Seoul. This policy represents one of the most stringent regulations because it imposes a mandatory two-year residency obligation, and transactions for those years are prohibited. This study examines the effects of LTP on sales and rental prices in Seoul, South Korea. Using the difference-in-differences method, I find that the LTP triggers up to a 7.7% decrease in sales prices, which is aligned with the policy’s aim. However, the LTP also raises rental prices as well as both sales and rental prices in the surrounding area, which are undesirable and unintended outcomes of the policy from a broader real estate market perspective. |
| Date: | 2024–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7sf92_v1 |
| By: | Sidenros, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This study explores the European Union's role in Europe's housing crisis. While much attention has been given to the EU's impact on other welfare state sectors, housing remains underexplored. Using Aalbers' theory of housing financialisation and Scharpf's theory of positive and negative EU integration, this study examines four modes of housing financialisation: mortgage debt, mortgage securitization, financialisation of rental housing, and financialisation of social housing companies. The findings suggest that the EU has contributed to housing commodification through channels such as mortgage market liberalisation, fiscal regulations, monetary policy, capital mobility, and competition law. A hierarchical struggle emerges between the single market and local housing administration, with EU law dominating this relationship through negative integration, since the elimination of market barriers, whether between or within member states, is at the essence of the single market project. This stands in contrast to the EU's commitments to housing as a human right. By highlighting housing as the primary surplus absorber of capitalism, and by integrating Aalbers theory of housing financialisation with Scharpf's theory of EU integration, this study underscores the essential role of housing in the broader EU integration process, i.e. housing commodification is shown to be both a driver and product of the EU's political economy. On a positive note, a theoretical argument can be made of the potential of EU housing to escape the determinism inherent to the negative integration perspective. Housing right obligations in EU treaties do exist, which offer the possibility for housing integration based on social commitments rather than market forces. |
| Keywords: | Financialisation of housing, economic geography, EU integration, welfare state transformation, commodification, decommodification |
| JEL: | P1 P16 R1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:312409 |
| By: | Damast, Dominik; Kubitza, Christian; Sørensen, Jakob Ahm |
| Abstract: | We document a novel transmission channel of monetary policy through the homeowners insurance market. On average, contractionary monetary policy shocks result in higher homeowners insurance prices. Using granular data on insurers' balance sheets, we show that this effect is driven by the interaction of financial frictions and the interest rate sensitivity of investment portfolios. Specifically, rate hikes reduce the market value of insurers' assets, tightening insurers' balance sheet constraints and increasing their shadow cost of capital. These frictions in insurance supply amplify the effects of monetary policy on real estate and mortgage markets by making housing less affordable. We find that monetary policy shocks have a stronger impact on home prices and mortgage applications when local insurers are more sensitive to interest rates. This channel is particularly pronounced in areas where households face high climate risk exposure. Our findings highlight the role of insurance markets in amplifying macroeconomic shocks and the interconnections between homeowners insurance, residential real estate, and mortgage lending |
| Keywords: | Insurance Markets, Monetary Policy, Financial Frictions, Housing Markets |
| JEL: | E5 E44 G21 G22 G5 R3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:icirwp:312410 |
| By: | Bosker, Maarten; Roberts, Mark; Tiwari, Sailesh; Wibisana, Putu Sanjiwacika; Wihardja, Maria Monica; Yanurzha, Ramda |
| Abstract: | Motorbike-based ride-hailing services are widespread in many of the most congested cities in the developing world. These services often predate the construction of modern public mass rapid transit systems. Ride-hailing services may complement such investments by providing important first and last mile connectivity. However, it has also been argued that they undermine the viability of mass rapid transit systems as people prefer to use ride-hailing services given their convenience and low prices. This paper applies an event study research design to proprietary, high-frequency data from one of Indonesia’s largest ride-hailing services, Gojek. The findings show that the opening of stations on Jakarta’s first mass rapid transit line led to large increases in ride-hailing activity in the immediate vicinities of the stations. This was accompanied by a significant decline in the average distance of ride-hailing trips to and from the station locations. These findings are consistent with ride-hailing services complementing public transport by providing first and last mile connectivity to the newly opened mass rapid transit system. Interestingly, this holds for both commuting and non-commuting trips and is strongest for mass rapid transit station locations that were not already served by Jakarta’s bus rapid transit system. |
| Date: | 2023–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10640 |
| By: | Alex Trew; Stephan Heblich; ​Yanos Zylberberg; Dávid Nagy |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how cities’ industrial structure shapes their life and death. Our analysis exploits the large heterogeneity in the early composition of English and Welsh cities. We extract built-up clusters from early historical maps, identify settlements at the onset of the nineteenth century, and isolate exogenous variation in the nature of their rise during the transformation of the economy by the end of the nineteenth century. We then estimate the causal impact of cities’ population and industrial specialization on their later dynamics. We find that cities specializing in a small number of industries decline in the long run. We develop a dynamic spatial model of cities to isolate the forces which govern their life and death. Intratemporally, the model captures the role of amenities, land, local productivity and trade in explaining the distribution of economic activity across industries and cities. Intertemporally, the model can disentangle the role of aggregate industry dynamics from city-specific externalities. We find that the long-run dynamics of English and Welsh cities is explained to a large extent by such dynamic externalities `a la Jacobs. |
| Keywords: | quantitative economic geography, specialization, cities over time |
| JEL: | F63 N93 O14 R13 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1398 |
| By: | Buchholz, Maximilian; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | The large labor markets of big cities offer greater possibilities for workers to gain skills and experience through successively better employment opportunities. This “experience effect” contributes to the higher average wages that are found in big cities compared to the economy as a whole. Racial wage inequality is also higher in bigger cities than in the economy on average. We offer an explanation for this pattern, demonstrating that there is substantial racial inequality in the economic returns to work experience acquired in big cities. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 we find that each year of work experience in a big city increases Black and Latinx workers’ wages by about one quarter to half as much as White workers’ wages. A substantial amount of this inequality can be explained by further racial disparities in the benefits of high-skill work experience. This research identifies a heretofore unknown source of inequality that is distinctly urban in nature, and expands our knowledge of the challenges to reaching interracial wage equality. |
| Keywords: | racial inequality; urban wage premium; agglomeration; geography; cost-of-living |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127303 |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Max Deter; Maria Greve; Michael Wyrwich |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East to West Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961. Leveraging a newly constructed, century-spanning dataset on German patents and inventors, along with an innovative identification strategy based on surname proximity, we trace the trajectories of East German inventors and quantify their impact on innovation in West Germany. Our findings demonstrate a significant and persistent boost to patenting activities in regions with higher inflows of East German inventors, predominantly driven by advancements in chemistry and physics. We further validate the robustness of our identification strategy against alternative plausible mechanisms. We show in particular that the effect is stronger than the one caused by the migration of other high skilled workers and scientists. |
| Keywords: | patents, migration, Germany, iron curtain, innovation |
| Date: | 2025–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2076 |
| By: | Zhang, Bowen; Rees, Griffith; Solomon, Guy; Wilson, Alan |
| Abstract: | Modelling complex systems like cities requires a theory of how elements interact (e.g. how transport influences trade, how education and housing impact labour, etc.), tempered by the tractability of measurements and assumptions. Combining the 2017 national UK Input-Output accounting table with local population and sector employment tallies from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), we develop an Multi-Regional Input-Output model with a novel spatial-interaction transport cost component to estimate trade between 48 UK cities and their Gross Domestic Products (GDPs). We extend the model to estimate future scenarios via ONS population projections over a constant national GDP growth of 2% per year. Without external shocks, our results reflect the so-called ‘North-South divide’: while northern UK cities may have higher GDPs than many southern cities (excluding London), their economic output per employee is lower. Our results suggest the prominence of lower value-added sectors like ‘Production’ in northern cities may account for lower income per worker, relative to the dominance of higher value-added sectors like ‘Financial and insurance’ and ‘Professional and support activities’ in southern cities. |
| Date: | 2023–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sruq7_v1 |
| By: | Vargas, Juan F.; Rozo Villarraga, Sandra Viviana |
| Abstract: | About a third of the 7.7 million Venezuelans who have left their country due to political and economic turmoil have settled in neighboring Colombia. The extent to which the Colombian schooling system can absorb the massive demand for education of Venezuelan children is key for their future trajectory of human capital accumulation, as well as that of Colombian students in receiving communities. This paper estimates the effect of Venezuelan migration on educational outcomes of children living in settlement municipalities in Colombia, distinguish between the effect of the migration shock on native and migrant students. Specifically, it estimates the effect of the migration shock on school enrollment, dropout/promotion rates and standardized test scores. The identification relies on a plausibly exogenous measure of the predicted migration shock faced by each Colombian municipality every year. The findings show that the migration shock increased the enrollment of Venezuelan students in both public and private schools and in all school grades, but also generated negative spillovers related to failing promotion rates and increasing dropout. This paper documents that these negative effects are explained by the differential enrollment capacity of schools, as well as by the deterioration of key school inputs. |
| Date: | 2024–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10720 |
| By: | Disney, Richard; Gathergood, John; Machin, Stephen; Sandi, Matteo |
| Abstract: | "Right to Buy" (RTB) was a large-scale UK housing policy whereby incumbent tenants in public housing could buy their properties at heavily subsidised prices. The policy increased the national homeownership rate by over 10 percentage points between 1980 and the late 1990s. A key feature of RTB is that housing tenure changes did not involve residential mobility, as the policy bestowed homeownership on households in disadvantaged neighbourhoods in the public housing where they were already resident. This paper shows that exposure to RTB at birth significantly improved pupil performance in high-stakes exams and the likelihood to obtain a degree, while also improving labour earnings in young adulthood. The key drivers of these human capital gains are the wealth gains arising from the subsidy and the crime reduction generated by RTB. This is evidence of a novel means by which homeownership, and the resulting societal change and neighbourhood gentrification that accompanies it, contribute to increase human capital accumulation and improve educational and work outcomes for individuals in disadvantaged, low-income childhood settings. |
| Keywords: | human capital; homeownership; public housing |
| JEL: | I21 I28 K14 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126765 |
| By: | Pérez-Sebastián, Fidel; Serrano Quintero, Rafael; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs |
| Abstract: | How does the misallocation of complementary public capital affect the spatial organization of economic activity To answer this question, this paper endogenizes the government's decision to invest in the transport and electricity networks. A novel multi-sector quantitative spatial equilibrium model incorporates the quality of the electric power and the road transportation infrastructure networks, which determine sectoral productivities and trade costs. Simulation results for the Brazilian economy point to significant welfare gains from reallocating infrastructure investment. Spatial and fiscal complementarities in heterogeneous infrastructure provision determine a sizeable part of those gains. Misallocation of both infrastructure investments is positively associated with local political support for the incumbent authority. |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10650 |
| By: | Lei Nie (Cooperative Innovation Center for Transition of Resource-based Economies and Research Institute of Resource-based Economic Transformation and Development, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, China); Zhenzhen Ren (Research Institute of Resource-based Economic Transformation and Development, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, China); Yanrui Wu (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia); Qizhou Luo (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Reno, USA) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to investigate the repercussions of urban industrial land misallocation on green total factor productivity within the context of China’s Yellow River Basin regions. Utilizing data from 99 prefecture-level cities over the period from 2007 to 2020, the analysis reveals that the misallocation of urban industrial land exhibits regional variations and exerts a significant and persistent negative influence on green total factor productivity, with notable regional disparities. Further analysis shows the mechanism of this effect is the obstacle to urban innovation due to industrial land misallocation. In addition, education expenditure plays a moderating role both directly and indirectly. These findings imply the need to continuously improve the performance evaluation and financial system of local governments, reduce government intervention and make use of the market mechanism in the allocation of urban industrial land. |
| Keywords: | industrial land misallocation, green total factor productivity, moderated mediation model, China |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:24-05 |
| By: | Redding, Stephen J.; Sturm, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We use the German bombing of London during the Second World War as an exogenous source of variation to provide evidence on neighborhood effects. We construct a newly-digitized dataset at the level of individual buildings on wartime destruction, property values, and socioeconomic composition in London before and after the Second World War. We develop a quantitative spatial model, in which heterogeneous groups of individuals endogenously sort across locations in response to differences in natural advantages, wartime destruction and neighborhood effects. We find substantial and highly localized neighborhood effects, which magnify the direct impact of wartime destruction, and make a substantial contribution to observed patterns of spatial sorting across locations. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; neighborhood effects; second world war; spatial sorting |
| JEL: | F16 N9 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126825 |
| By: | Helene Donnat; Luz Yadira Gomez-Hernandez; Nicolas Gonzalez-Pampillon; Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim; Henry G. Overman |
| Abstract: | We consider how existing distance-based and accessibility-based evaluation methodologies can be adapted to measure the local economic impact of small additions to the transport network. We use these methodologies to evaluate the impact of 94 UK Local Major schemes (partly) funded by the Department for Transport (DfT) between 2007 and 2018. For public transport schemes, the results suggest some impacts on local economic activity, with a 1.6% increase in the number of businesses. The effects are localised, concentrated in areas within 1 km of schemes. For road schemes, we do not find a measurable, statistically significant impact. We discuss the limitations of these methods and issues arising in their application and provide recommendations for future evaluations. |
| Keywords: | accessibility, transport, employment |
| Date: | 2025–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2081 |
| By: | Seiden, Jonathan Michael; Hasan, Amer; Luna Bazaldua, Diego Armando |
| Abstract: | In Pakistan, learning poverty among primary school aged children is estimated to be as high as 77 percent, but little data exist on early learning experiences. This paper describes the state of classroom quality in 1, 395 classrooms and the early childhood development status of 8, 249 children in a representative sample of 894 public schools in South Punjab, using two measurement tools: The Teach ECE classroom observation tool, which describes the structural and process quality features of classrooms, and the Anchor Items for the Measurement of Early Childhood Development Direct Assessment which reports on early learning and developmental outcomes of children aged 4 to 6 years. The paper finds key gaps in the foundational skills of young children and areas for improvement in both the physical classroom and teaching practices. In examining the relationships between teaching practices and early childhood development outcomes, the analysis finds a strong positive relationship across the areas of process quality and domains of childhood development. Children studying in a high-quality classroom have outcomes that are equivalent to having been in school nine months longer than children of similar ages in an average quality classroom, suggesting that a sharper focus on teaching quality may improve early childhood development outcomes and school readiness. The findings also show that after accounting for teaching quality, degrees and certification are not associated with early childhood development outcomes, but that classes taught by female teachers have better early childhood development outcomes. |
| Date: | 2024–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10764 |
| By: | Yan, Xiaoqin; Bao, Honglin; Leppard, Tom; Davis, Andrew |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the cultural ties in American sociology defined by the shared usage of cultural symbols across schools. Cultural symbols are operationalized as research focuses from the dissertations of a school’s graduates. We construct a unique pairwise dataset including 6, 441 school pairs across 114 schools, detailing their dyadic relationships (e.g., geographical co-residence) and cultural proximity inferred from dissertations. We build a socio-cultural network where a school sends a tie to another when their proximity is sufficiently high. We design computational linguistic methods to identify gatekeeping symbols co-used by reciprocally connected schools within the same cultural niche. Our findings reveal two major school clusters and their research trajectories, with one representing dominant trends in relatively esoteric areas like sociology of culture, economic life, organizations, and politics and the other a more explicit focus on social problems. We further discern key determinants that shape cultural convergence and distinction, including school prestige, geographical co-residence, and institutional classification. In sum, our study proposes a pipeline for measuring cultural ties across schools and understanding the factors that influence the development of duality between schools and schools of thought. |
| Date: | 2024–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qvyj8_v1 |
| By: | Esteban Rossi-Hansberg; Jialing Zhang |
| Abstract: | We use high-resolution spatial data to build a novel global annual gridded GDP dataset at 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25° resolutions from 2012 onward. Our random forest model trained on local and national GDP achieves an R² above 0.92 for GDP levels and above 0.62 for annual changes in regions left out of the training sample. By incorporating diverse indicators beyond population and nighttime lights, our estimates offer more precise subnational GDP measurements for analyzing economic shocks, local policies, and regional disparities. We evaluate the precision of our estimates with a sample case of COVID-19’s impact on local GDP in China. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 R0 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33458 |
| By: | Floreani, Vincent Arthur; Rama, Martin G. |
| Abstract: | Disasters are frequent and clearly harmful in developing countries, but precisely estimating their overall cost and distributional impact is challenging. This paper proposes a microsimulation approach to do so rapidly, borrowing concepts from both poverty analysis and urban economics. Because housing prices reflect the present value of a specific bundle of living conditions, local earnings opportunities, and local access to services, their change in the aftermath of a disaster can be interpreted as a measure of the welfare cost incurred by households. A hedonic pricing function is used to estimate such changes based on the destruction experienced by the dwellings themselves, but also on the overall destruction suffered by their surrounding areas. The first element captures the damage from worse living conditions, whereas the second captures the loss from diminished earnings opportunities and access to services. The proposed approach is illustrated by estimating the cost of the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal. Overall, the estimated impact is comparable to that from the official assessment. But its spatial distribution is significantly different due to the pivotal influence of neighborhood effects. |
| Date: | 2024–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10668 |
| By: | Garcia López, Miquel-Àngel; Gomez-Hernandez, Yadira; Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a theoretical framework to study the relationship between expanded road capacity, traffic volumes and increased economic activity. We build on Anas (2024) to show that increased volumes do not necessarily lead to congestion if adjustments in economic factors, such as population or employment, are not substantial. We test our predictions obtaining key estimates with data from Great Britain between 2001 and 2020 and adopting a shift-share instrumental variable approach. We find that the elasticity of vehicle kilometres travelled to road capacity improvements is positive and statistically different from 1 across different specifications, while the elasticity of population and employment is positive but smaller than 1. In our framework this implies that the cost of driving does not increase above initial levels, resulting in higher consumer surplus through changes in travel demand and time savings. |
| Keywords: | transportation; road capacity; aggregate travel cost; economic activity |
| JEL: | H4 R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126778 |
| By: | Pedro S. Martins; Joao R. Ferreira |
| Abstract: | Can incentives deliver value in the public sector, despite major principal-agent challenges? We evaluate a political reform that introduced individual teacher performancerelated pay and tournaments in public schools in Portugal. We find that the focus on individual performance decreased student achievement, as measured in national exams, and increased grade inflation. The results follow from a difference-in-differences analysis of matched student-school panels and two complementary control groups: public schools in regions that were exposed to lighter reforms; and private schools, whose teachers had their incentives unchanged. Students in public schools with a higher proportion of teachers exposed to the tournament also perform worse. Overall, our results highlight the potential social costs from disruption of cooperation amongst public sector workers due to competition for promotions. |
| Keywords: | Tournaments, Public sector, Teacher merit pay, Matched school-student data |
| JEL: | I21 M52 I28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp665 |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Pilgram, Clemens; Lu, Yougeng |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the relationships between street network characteristics and transport-sector CO2 emissions across every urban area in the world and investigates whether they are the same across development levels and urban design paradigms. The prior literature has estimated relationships between street network design and transport emissions---including greenhouse gases implicated in climate change---primarily through case studies focusing on certain world regions or relatively small samples of cities, complicating generalizability and applicability for evidence-informed practice. Our worldwide study finds that straighter, more-connected, and less-overbuilt street networks are associated with lower transport emissions, all else equal. Importantly, these relationships vary across development levels and design paradigms---yet most prior literature reports findings from urban areas that are outliers by global standards. Planners need a better empirical base for evidence-informed practice in under-studied regions, particularly the rapidly urbanizing Global South. |
| Date: | 2024–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:r32vj_v1 |
| By: | Daniele Chiavenato; Ricardo A. Madeira; Vitor Vaccaro |
| Abstract: | Can an applied mathematics curriculum enhance student intrinsic motivation and improve math achievement? We tackle this question through a randomized control trial of a program that integrates financial education into the mathematics curriculum in Brazil. Spanning 190 public schools and over 15, 000 students, our study reveals that the program significantly boosts students’ interest in mathematics and enhances financial literacy and math performance, particularly among students from poorer socioeconomic backgrounds. Initially, the program strengthens these students’ internal locus of control and broad interest in mathematics during the first year. By the second year’s conclusion, it positively impacts their financial literacy, math proficiency, and specific socio-emotional skills crucial for the labor market. However, we do not observe significant changes in self-reported financial behaviors or attitudes as measured by a financial autonomy index. |
| Keywords: | Financial education, School attainment, Socio-emotional skills, Youth, Randomized controlled trials |
| JEL: | G53 I21 J24 O12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp666 |
| By: | Farrell, Graham (University of Leeds); Lovelace, Robin; O'Hern, Steve |
| Abstract: | This study uses data from Operation Snap (OpSnap), the UK police’s national system to receive road users’ video evidence of road traffic offences. Data from one police force area for 39 months (January 2021 to March 2024) (N = 20, 364 records) is analysed. Half were submitted by vehicle drivers (49.8%), a third by cyclists (34.7%), 7.2% by pedestrians, 2.2% by horse riders, 0.2% by motorcyclists, and 5.8% were unknown. We estimate that, relative to road distance travelled, cyclists were 20 times more likely to submit video evidence than vehicle drivers. The most common offences overall were driving ‘without reasonable consideration to others’ or ‘without due care and attention’. Half (53.5%) of reported cases resulted in the recommended disposal of an educational course, % no further action 12.6% conditional offer, and 1.6% resulted in court appearance. A research agenda using OpSnap data is outlined that could emerge if national datasets are compiled and responsibly opened-up and made available for research and policy-making: data-driven research should identify hotspot locations and other correlates of dangerous and antisocial road use at regional, and local levels; research projects should investigate disposal-related decision-making, video quality, and the role of supporting evidence; offence concentration (recidivism, repeat submitters of evidence, spatial hotspots) and case progression including court cases should be explored with reference to new video evidence. We conclude that datasets derived from publicly-uploaded video submission portals have the potential to transform evidence-based policy and practice locally, nationally and internationally. |
| Date: | 2024–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cgjmr_v1 |
| By: | Faggio, Giulia; Schlüter, Teresa; Berge, Philipp vom |
| Abstract: | We use the German government move from Bonn to Berlin in 1999 to explore the interaction between public and private sector employment within a local labor market. Our findings show a positive effect of public sector expansion on private sector employment, with a local multiplier of 1.32–1.35, mainly driven by the service sector. The policy impact is highly localized, strongest within 300 m of a relocation site, and evident one year after the relocation. Three quarters of new private sector jobs were created by establishments that did not exist before 1998. These newly created jobs disproportionally employ women, younger workers, individuals in managerial and professional roles, and those with lower levels of education. |
| Keywords: | economic development; job displacement; regional government policy; regional labor markets |
| JEL: | J1 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127211 |
| By: | Srivastava, Bhavya; Hirfrfot, Kibrom Tafere; Behrer, Arnold Patrick |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from 2003–19 on 2.47 million test takers of a national high stakes university entrance exam in Ethiopia to study the impacts of temperature on learning outcomes. It finds that high temperatures during the school year leading up to the exam reduce test scores, controlling for temperatures when the exam is taken. The results suggest that the scores of female students are less impacted by higher temperatures compared to their male counterparts. Additionally, the analysis finds that the scores of students from schools located in hotter regions are less impacted by higher temperatures compared to their counterparts from cooler regions. The evidence suggests that the adverse effects of temperature are driven by impacts from within-classroom temperatures, rather than from indirect impacts on agriculture. |
| Date: | 2024–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10714 |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Ha, Jaehyun |
| Abstract: | Street networks allow people and goods to move through cities, but they are vulnerable to disasters like floods, earthquakes, and terrorist attacks. Well-planned network design can make a city more resilient and robust to such disruptions, but we still know little about worldwide patterns of vulnerability, or worldwide empirical relationships between specific design characteristics and resilience. This study quantifies and measures the vulnerability of the street networks of every urban area in the world then models the relationships between vulnerability and street network design characteristics. To do so, we simulate over 2.4 billion trips across more than 8, 000 urban areas in 178 countries, while also simulating network disruption events representing floods, earthquakes, and targeted attacks. We find that disrupting high-centrality nodes severely impacts network function. All else equal, networks with higher connectivity, fewer chokepoints, or less circuity are less vulnerable to disruption's impacts. This study thus contributes a new global understanding of network design and vulnerability to the literature. We argue that these design characteristics offer high leverage points for street network resilience and robustness that planners should emphasize when designing or retrofitting urban networks. |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tk93y_v1 |
| By: | Combes, Pierre Philippe; Gorin, Clément; Nakamura, Shohei; Roberts, Mark; Stewart, Benjamin P. |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a detailed descriptive analysis of patterns of urbanization across Sub-Saharan Africa for the year circa 2015. Despite the rapidity and importance of Sub-Saharan Africa’s urbanization, little is known about the anatomy of patterns of urbanization across the region due to a lack of detailed and accurate official data on urban settlements and populations. To address this gap, the paper applies a modified version of the “dartboard” algorithm to high-resolution gridded population data for the region, which is derived from digitized maps of the footprints of all buildings in the region from very high-resolution satellite imagery. This allows for a consistent definition of urban areas across all countries in the region, overcoming the measurement problems that arise from relying on official definitions of urban areas, which vary markedly across countries. Using this definition, the paper presents evidence on key empirical regularities that are related to disparities across the urban hierarchies, such as the extent of urban primacy and Zipf’s law, as well as on the internal structures of cities, such as population density gradients and the number of centers that cities possess. The paper also analyzes how these characteristics are related to key country characteristics. Finally, the paper compares the results with those that arise from the use of an alternative definition of urban areas—the degree of urbanization. |
| Date: | 2023–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10621 |
| By: | Lei Nie (Cooperative Innovation Center for Transition of Resource-based Economies and Research Institute of Resource-based Economic Transformation and Development, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, China); Yuanyuan Wang (Research Institute of Resource-based Economic Transformation and Development, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, China); Yanrui Wu (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs the system generalized method of moments approach and panel data of Chinese resource-based cities at the prefecture level for the period of 2003-2019 to investigate the effects of two types of service sector agglomeration on industrial structure dynamics. The results show that an increase in “specialized agglomeration” of services would inhibit industrial structure rationalization and upgrading. However, an increase in “diversified” agglomeration of services promotes industrial structure upgrading though it also inhibits industrial structure rationalization. Furthermore, it is also found that an increase in diversified agglomeration would inhibit industrial structure rationalization in eastern cities and industrial structure upgrading in western cities but promote industrial structure rationalization and upgrading in central cities. These insights suggest the importance of fostering the appropriate form of service sector agglomeration within resource-based cities. Leveraging the synergistic linkages between the service sector and other industries could enhance the industrial structure optimization of resource-based urban economies. |
| Keywords: | service sector agglomeration, industrial structure rationalization, industrial structure upgrading, resource-based city, China |
| JEL: | O14 O53 O25 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:24-04 |
| By: | Jose Mesquita Gabriel; Luis Catela Nunes |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes a compensatory education program in Portugal whose aim is to provide equal educational opportunities for children from lower socioeconomic status (SES) families by ensuring additional school resources for deprived areas. Using two administrative databases covering virtually all public schools in Portugal, we present a comprehensive evaluation of such a program addressing an important effect that has been overlooked so far in the literature: a negative stigma effect, wherein students from higher SES families become less likely to enroll in treated schools. Our staggered difference-in-differences estimates show that: 1) the Student-to-Teacher ratio decreased significantly in treated schools as a result of their entry into the program, corresponding to an average drop of 9% relative to the pre-treatment average value; 2) the proportion of students whose mothers concluded upper secondary school entering treated schools declined substantially, a decrease of around 14% of the average pre-treatment value; and 3) no effects were observed in blind-marked national exam scores in the 4th, 6th-, and 9th-grade for students coming from lower SES families, while some positive effects were found for non-blind sources of evaluation, particularly in schools where the change in additional resources was more pronounced. Our results emphasize the need to account for unanticipated risks of further aggravating segregation across schools when implementing publicly announced programs, in particular when they lead to discontinuities in terms of school eligibility. |
| Keywords: | Education, Compensatory education programs, Inequalities, Portugal |
| JEL: | C21 H52 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp668 |
| By: | Jakubowski, Maciej Jan; Gajderowicz, Tomasz Janusz; Patrinos, Harry Anthony |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant disruption in schooling worldwide. This paper uses global test score data to estimate learning losses. It models the effect of school closures on achievement by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend using data from all rounds of the Programme for International Student Assessment. Scores declined by an average of 14 percent of a standard deviation, roughly equal to seven months of learning. Losses were greater for students in schools that faced relatively longer closures, boys, immigrants, and disadvantaged students. Educational losses may translate into significant national income losses over time. |
| Date: | 2024–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10666 |
| By: | Nathan, Max; Overman, Henry G.; Riom, Capucine; Sanchez Vidal, Maria |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the impact of a major public sector relocation: the British Broadcasting Corporation's partial move from London to Salford, Greater Manchester starting in 2011. We identify effects of the move using synthetic control methods applied to plant-level data at Local Authority and Travel to Work Area level. Each BBC job creates on average 0.33 additional jobs in the creative industries, rising to 0.55 additional jobs by 2017, and the relocation had an impact on sectoral and firm composition. We find no significant effect on total employment but a small positive effect on Local Authority average wages. |
| Keywords: | cities; public employment; local multipliers; relocation; creative industries; policy evaluation |
| JEL: | H70 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126763 |
| By: | Bell, Brian; Johnson, Philip |
| Abstract: | We examine the wage and occupation outcomes for cohorts of immigrants who arrived in the UK since 2002. Using the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) with a matched migrant identifier, we can follow a 1% sample of all workers (native and migrant) within and across jobs. This also allows us to identify relative attrition rates between natives and migrants. The work focuses in particular on workers who arrived in the UK since 2004 as part of EU expansion. Consistent with prior work, we find substantial evidence of occupational downgrading for these migrants. Importantly, the panel data allows us to track these workers in subsequent years and we find very little evidence of substantial labour market improvement from initial entry. This result is robust to accounting for non-random attrition. |
| Keywords: | wages; immigration |
| JEL: | J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126753 |
| By: | Pavel, Md Eyasin Ul Islam Ul Islam |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the dimensions of immigration integration and engagement within the United States, utilizing a dataset provided by the International City/County Management Association (ICMA). The study's objective was to identify and understand the factors that significantly affect the incorporation of immigrant populations into the social and political life of American communities. Through meticulous preprocessing and rigorous validation processes, including factor analysis and comparative studies, we analyzed variables such as the size of the immigrant population, forms of local government, regional influences, and service provisions. The results highlighted the size of the immigrant population as a pivotal factor, with larger communities exhibiting more pronounced integration and engagement. The form of government and regional characteristics also emerged as influential, affecting policy-making and access to resources, which are instrumental in shaping the immigrant experience. Notably, services provided by educational institutions were found to be critical in supporting immigrant integration. |
| Date: | 2023–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wyz96_v1 |
| By: | Pagani, Anna; Macmillan, Alex; Savini, Federico; Davies, Michael; Zimmermann, Nici |
| Abstract: | The shortage of social housing is a crucial element of the UK housing crisis. In England, social housing provision significantly relies on market homes construction, with detrimental impacts on residents and the environment. Moratoria are often cited in the degrowth literature as policy tools to break free from growth-driven mechanisms and achieve high levels of well-being while reducing environmental pressures. However, the systemic effects of such a policy on housing and its potential drawbacks are at present understudied. This study explores the extent to which a moratorium on new housebuilding would be effective, desirable, and feasible; for this purpose, it focuses on its impact on the provision of social homes. We used causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to formulate dynamic hypotheses on the effects of a moratorium on the structures underpinning the construction and demolition of social housing estates. In a workshop with four London-based housing associations, we discussed perceived obstacles or opportunities to its uptake. Our CLDs suggest that a moratorium could help to address the growth-dependent mechanisms of social housing provision, with systemic benefits for both tenants and housing associations. However, the workshop revealed that its adoption would depend on whether the maintenance, repair, and retrofit of the existing stock could offset the perceived advantages of new construction (e.g., quality, quantity, adequacy). Through the use of systems thinking tools, our findings support dialogue around alternatives to the growth-dependent paradigm undermining housing provision within planetary boundaries. |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f6suj_v1 |
| By: | Baciu, Dan Costa (Architektur Studio Bellerive) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the complex relationship between mobility, diversity, and perceived urban value by studying urban “chains of activities” that define city life. Introducing chains-of-activities-models (CHOAMs), we present a method for systematically analyzing how individuals move through the city and engage in a variety of urban activities. We also show that changing mobility options or the supply of activities can directly influence the ways people experience and the extent to which they value the urban environment. By facilitating rapid modeling and testing of scenarios, our research framework empowers urban planners, designers, and policymakers to envision cities as dynamic systems and leverage the relationship between mobility and diversity to optimize human-scale benefits. Through these insights obtainable through CHOAMs, the present article opens the door to a future of automated, proactive, and value-driven urban design. |
| Date: | 2025–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:wuyp9_v4 |
| By: | Rampazzo, Pietro |
| Abstract: | There is a gap in the study of mobility. The work done so far is not taking into account the changes the shared-mobility is bringing into our society. This research project aims to leverage shared-mobility data for a better understanding of new patterns in the human-mobility. These new services allow people to use a shared vehicle based on their needs, without the necessity to own one. Shared mobility is going towards users' needs and letting them reach their destination as close as possible. Sharing mobility is improving the data collected and at the same time reshaping the commuting patterns. Understanding travel behaviour is key to creating more resilient, sustainable urban transport networks and reducing carbon emissions. In this research, I start analysing data from Movi which focus on Padova. Movi (ex Mobike) is a free-floating bike sharing system active in Italy and Spain. The data collected by the this service is very detailed and rich. The data sets contain high-level detailed information that is related to service usage. For every trip made it is known: (1) anonymized user id and rental plan, (2) vehicle id, (3) origin (latitude, longitude), (4) destination (latitude, longitude), (5) start date and time (timestamp), (6) end date and time (timestamp), and (7) rounded meters/kilometres travelled. All the information is anonymized. The two research questions this paper is going to address are: (a) What is the profile of the active users? This information can be studied based on the usage data and socio-demographic information the service is collecting. (b) What are the effects of the weather and temperature on the usage of this service? Weather data were retrieved from the local authorities regarding temperature and precipitations. |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bd8p4_v1 |
| By: | Schmidt, Kirsten; Tonzer, Lena |
| Abstract: | We study whether the low interest rate environment paired with booming housing markets affected banks' foreign activities in terms of commercial and residential real estate backed lending. Using a unique dataset covering systemically relevant banks in the euro area over the period 2015-2022, we find that banks expand their foreign real estate backed lending in the presence of higher lending spreads. The result is especially present given a lack of or misalignment in macroprudential policies across home and destination country. Furthermore, we assess whether banks disclose potential losses conditional on higher lending spreads and borrowing country exposure. We find only better capitalized banks to show higher forbearance ratios. In line with search-for-yield motives, we find that during the COVID-19 crisis low capitalized banks experienced larger loan losses on real-estate backed loans in countries having offered higher rates. |
| Keywords: | International banking, real estate backed loans, macroprudential regulation, financial stability |
| JEL: | F21 F34 G10 G21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:311839 |
| By: | Preety Srivastava (RMIT University); Trong-Anh Trinh (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University); Xiaohui Zhang (University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the growing body of research examining the impact of temperature on educational outcomes. Utilising national-level administrative data on nearly one million Australian students, it investigates whether temperature fluctuations, and prolonged heatwaves influence test performance. The analysis reveals that both heat and cold affect student test scores, with some evidence of the effects intensifying during heatwaves. Australia’s vast geographical diversity and climate variability provides a unique opportunity to explore spatial heterogeneity in these effects. Findings suggest that in regions with hot weather conditions, the most thermally comfortable temperature is likely to be higher, whereas students in the coldest parts of the country appear to be less sensitive to cold weather conditions, consistent with the adaptation hypothesis. In contrast, in regions with moderate and temperate weather conditions, student scores are affected by both hot and cold weather. |
| Keywords: | climate change , temperature, academic performance, NAPLAN, heatwave |
| JEL: | C3 I2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-07 |
| By: | Tom Doolittle; Arthur Fliegelman |
| Abstract: | There is growing apprehension over conditions in U.S. commercial real estate (CRE), and for good reason—U.S. financial institutions hold more than $5.6 trillion of mortgage debt secured by CRE, and prior CRE downturns have generated financial instability. Like many markets, CRE is multifaceted, and to understand the threat to financial stability this market poses, we must evaluate each of its sectors individually. |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:ofrblg:23-14 |
| By: | Behrer, Arnold Patrick; Bolotnyy, Valentin |
| Abstract: | Using administrative criminal records from Texas, this paper shows how high temperatures affect the decision making of police officers, prosecutors, and judges. It finds that police reduce the number of arrests made per reported crime on the hottest days and that arrests made on these days are more likely to be dismissed in court. For prosecutors, high temperature on the day they announce criminal charges does not appear to affect the nature and severity of the charges. However, judges dismiss fewer cases, issue longer prison sentences, and levy higher fines whenruling on hot days. The results suggest that the psychological and cognitive consequences ofexposure to high temperatures have meaningful consequences for criminal defendants as they interact with the criminal justice system. |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10776 |
| By: | Schmitz, Tom; Colantone, Italo; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how to combine microeconometric evidence on the effects of environmental policy with a macroeconomic model, accounting for general equilibrium spillovers that have mostly been ignored in the literature. To this end, we study the effects of a recent US air pollution policy. We use regression evidence on the policy's impact across industries and local labor markets to calibrate a quantitative spatial model allowing for general equilibrium spillovers. Our model implies that the policy lowered emissions by 11.1%, but destroyed approximately 250'000 jobs. Ignoring spillovers overestimates job losses in polluting industries, but underestimates job losses in clean industries. |
| Keywords: | environmental policy; employment; trade; clean air act |
| JEL: | E24 Q50 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126761 |
| By: | Nicole Gorton; Cecile Gaubert; Pablo D. Fajgelbaum; Eduardo Morales; Edouard Schaal |
| Abstract: | How do political preferences shape transportation policy? We study this question in the context of California’s High-Speed Rail (CHSR). Combining geographic data on votes in a referendum on the CHSR with a model of its expected economic benefits, we estimate the weight of economic and non-economic considerations in voters’preferences. Then, comparing the proposed distribution of CHSR stations with alternative placements, we use a revealed-preference approach to estimate policymakers’ preferences for redistribution and popular approval. While voters did respond to expected real-income benefits, non-economic factors were a more important driver of the spatial distribution of voters’ preferences for the CHSR. While the voter-approved CHSR would have led to modest income gains, proposals with net income losses also would have been approved due to political preferences. For the planner, we identify strong preferences for popular approval. A politically-blind planner would have placed the stations closer to dense metro areas in California. |
| Keywords: | political economy, infrastructure, transportation |
| JEL: | H54 P11 R13 R4 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1397 |
| By: | Perugia, Francesca; Babb, Courtney; Scherini, Rebecca; Rowley, Steven; Logan, Callum; Shirowzhan, Sara; Lu, Yi; Pettit, Christopher |
| Abstract: | What this research is about? This research examines how governments and organisations involved in planning and delivering housing use data to assess risks associated with flooding, bushfires and cyclones. It explores ways to use and share data better in order to reduce the impact of disasters Why this research is important? Having access to quality data plays a crucial tool in managing and mitigating natural hazard risks. It enables authorities to make efficient and informed decisions regarding what land is used for housing and development. Good data is essential to inform strategies for reducing risks and enhancing preparedness for disasters. It can also improve coordination of disaster response and post-disaster recovery activities. |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sd3fh_v1 |
| By: | Pagani, Anna; Zimmermann, Nici; Macmillan, Alex; Zhou, Koko; Davies, Michael |
| Abstract: | The provision of good quality social housing is crucial to address disparities in cities. However, the supply of social homes in London is threatened by numerous political, economic, environmental, and social pressures. Interacting, these pressures generate a complexity hard to navigate, leading to interventions that reinforce rather than alleviate existing issues. This paper seeks to provide a holistic picture of the interconnected challenges faced by the English social housing sector, with the aim of supporting reflection on systemic strategies to address them. We used system dynamics to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) displaying the interrelations between critical issues in the sector extracted from the literature. The resulting six CLDs were explored and enriched over a series of participatory activities involving four London-based housing associations and the authors of the selected publications. The CLDs display the dynamics triggered by decades of political instability and the strategies devised in response. In doing so, they make explicit the logics behind controversial approaches such as social mixing or demolition, and how these emerge from partial understandings of the system and the prioritisation of different goals (e.g., viability, housing targets, speculation). These representations support reflections around leverage points in the system of housing provision. |
| Date: | 2024–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hbfwu_v1 |
| By: | Buh, Brian |
| Abstract: | Previous literature looking at regional property prices found higher housing costs reduce affordability and are negatively associated with childbirth. On the other hand, (soon-to-be) parents are often willing to pay more to get better quality housing to pursue fertility desires. Thus, the relationship at the micro level incorporates both affordability and the willingness to pay. The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between micro level housing expenditure and the likelihood of first, second, and third birth in the United Kingdom (UK). This paper finds that higher housing expenditure is positively associated with childbirth across birth order. In parallel, a higher housing share of income is negatively associated with childbirth. These results suggest that couples anticipating childbirth are willing to pay larger amounts to pursue their fertility desires. Simultaneously, a higher share of household income going to housing reduces affordability, making having a(nother) child unfeasible. Using household level housing costs illuminates the affordability/willingness to pay trade-off. The relationship is stronger in households in which women are not in paid work. This indicates that women’s labor market participation is intertwined with housing costs and childbirth. |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:frbnc_v1 |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella; Bonacini, Luca; Joxhe, Majlinda; Pignataro, Giuseppe |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of exposure to math during high school on university major choice and performance, using a unique administrative dataset of 1, 396 twins extracted from the entire student population enrolled between 2011 and 2021 at an Italian university. We apply a Twin Fixed Effect (TFE) estimator to account for unobserved factors like shared family background. We find that attending a low-math high school reduces the likelihood of enrolling in STEM majors by 32.6 percentage points and improves university performance, by increasing the likelihood of on-time graduation by 11.7 percentage points and boosting grades by 0.139 standard deviations. Leveraging a high school reform that expanded the math content in traditionally low-math curricula, we show that the added math background further reduces STEM enrollment for treated students, while it drives their improvement in performance. Our results suggest that, while increased math exposure does not necessarily boost STEM enrollment, it equips students with skills that help them improve their university outcomes. Compared with TFE, Ordinary Least Squares estimates of the effect of math exhibit a downward bias. The same applies to Difference-in-Differences estimates of the effect of the reform obtained using the entire student population. |
| Keywords: | Math Exposure, Twins, Twin Fixed Effects, Major Choice, STEM, University Performance, High School Reform |
| JEL: | D10 I21 I23 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1567 |
| By: | Jauregui, Carlota; Trinidad, Alexander (University of Cologne); vozmediano, laura |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the heightened fear of crime experienced by women, which often leads to the adoption of self-protective behaviors that can negatively impact their quality of life. Focusing on a hot-spot in the city of Donostia-San Sebastián undergoing redesign, the research is conducted in two phases: pre-intervention and post-intervention. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the study employs systematic observation using the SUE tool, surveys, and Safety Walks to gather data. Findings indicate a high prevalence and frequency of fear of crime among female participants, with a significant reduction in fear observed post-intervention. Consistent with the Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED) framework, factors such as physical design, area activity, and user profiles are identified as key determinants of women's insecurity. Notable improvements in both the physical and social characteristics of the urban environment are evident between the two phases. The consistency of results across the three methodological tools reinforces the validity and reliability of the findings, highlighting the potential of mixed methodologies. Overall, the study suggests that urban redesign effectively reduces fear of crime among women, offering insights for urban planning and policy-making to create safer, more inclusive public spaces. |
| Date: | 2024–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ztrkj_v1 |
| By: | Lamuela Orta, Carlos (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland) |
| Abstract: | Increasing the modal share of cycling is a common urban transport policy goal and expanding cycling infrastructure is its key policy instrument. During COVID-19, temporal bike lanes raised in prominence globally, as many cities adopted top-down versions of tactical urbanism (e.g., “coronapistes” in Paris). Yet in Helsinki, a Nordic capital recognized otherwise for its urban policy innovations, cycling policy remained unchanged despite the city lagging in its ambitious goals for modal shift. To explain this lack of policy transfer, the article explores stakeholders’ discourses and reveals a political contradiction and a technical double standard within the municipal organization. Together with a visual in-situ analysis of temporal street arrangements, these discourses reveal the paradoxical role of temporal street construction in Helsinki. The article concludes that in Helsinki the mainstreamed version of tactical urbanism did not yet represent a real opportunity to reorient cycling policy, despite the pandemic shock. On the contrary, in a policy context based on conflict avoidance and a non-zero-sum political space, temporal street arrangements are a fundamental part of maintaining the status quo of automobility. The study suggests that a way to break policy path dependency could be the reframing of existing expertise in institutions and stakeholders to give it new political meaning. |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rwgu6_v1 |
| By: | van Heur, Bas (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) |
| Abstract: | Although still a niche within established disciplines, research on urban vacancy has boomed in recent decades, with different research communities investigating different dimensions of vacancy. However, these communities rarely communicate with each other, leading to parallel debates, different conceptual vocabularies and diverging empirical foci. This becomes particularly problematic in the current era, which is best characterized not simply as an ’urban age’, but as one in which city regions find themselves at the heart of economic, ecological and societal crises that are reshaping our world. Vacant spaces can be understood as symptoms of these crises, but also as actually existing and potential sites for experimentation, prefiguring new and more sustainable ways of urban living. To develop this perspective conceptually and empirically, the current paper offers a synthetic review of the existing literature, with a specific focus on the European context. Cutting across different research domains, the paper concludes by proposing an interdisciplinary research agenda on urban vacancy. |
| Date: | 2024–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3kmtx_v1 |
| By: | Ulrika Ahrsjš (Stockholm School of Economics); Costas Meghir (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); MŒrten Palme (Stockholm University); Marieke Schnabel (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We study the intergenerational effect of education policy on crime. We use Swedish administrative data that links outcomes across generations with crime records, and we show that the comprehensive school reform, gradually implemented between 1949 and 1962, reduced conviction rates both for the generation directly affected by the reform and for their sons. The reduction in conviction rates occurred in many types of crime. The key mediators of this reduction in child generation are an increase in education and household income and a decrease in crime among their fathers. |
| Date: | 2025–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2356r1 |
| By: | Lister, Pen |
| Abstract: | This paper critically reflects on future-present learning in place situated in the context of postdigital learning at the scale of the city. Acknowledging a high level of uncertainty, it is argued here that we must re-imagine and investigate alternative visions of what might be possible or desirable to implement a smarter, more effective and efficient learning in place in near-future learning cities, to plan and adapt for how this future could play out, and mitigate challenges that may arise. A speculative vision is outlined for a civic learning network to provide seamless, low friction learning in a smart future city. Context is placed on the importance of the web of knowledge as the foundation of any system of civic learning implementation, the role of the open social web to support citizen participation, and the potential responsibilities of platform infrastructure as part of their relationship to future technosocial contracts and citizen digital epistemic rights. |
| Date: | 2024–01–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ruds4_v1 |
| By: | Biagi, Victoria; Cardazzi, Alexander; Porreca, Zachary |
| Abstract: | Violence is often viewed as an intrinsic feature of illicit markets, driven by competition, disputes, and predation. We argue that the connection between violence and markets is not exclusive to illicit markets and that in the absence of strong institutions these factors exist ubiquitously. Using an estimator of spatial concentration, we document the empirical relationship between violence and markets in the 14th century. We then employ a large language model to analyze the coroner's accounts of the era's homicides, finding that many of these incidents were driven by avoidable escalations of business-related disputes. Employing a novel difference-in-differences estimator for spatial concentration, we proceed to causally identify the impacts of the introduction of London's first professional police force in the 19th century on this concentration. We find that the police force's introduction led to a 54% reduction in the degree of concentration of violence around marketplaces. Our findings suggest that it is not the nature of the commodities being sold in illicit markets that drives violence, but is rather the absence of formal institutions of enforcement and dispute resolution. |
| Keywords: | marketplace violence, medieval violence, spatial concentration, local large language model |
| JEL: | K42 N93 R12 C21 K40 N90 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1569 |
| By: | Lebrand, Mathilde Sylvie Maria; Mongoue, Arcady; Pongou, Roland; Zhang, Fan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether the expansion of fast internet networks complements or substitutes for the development of roads to improve market access and create more and higher-skilled jobs in Africa. The paper combines the geographic locations of households and firms with the locations of main roads and optical-fiber nodes in 25 Sub-Saharan African countries. Using the difference-in-differences and instrumental variables approaches and leveraging the history of post-independence road building and the timing of the arrival of submarine internet, the paper examines the impacts of access to these two types of infrastructure, both in isolation and in combination. The findings show that improving access to both has large and positive complementary effects. On average, the additional impacts on employment from combining access to both types of infrastructure are 22 percent larger than the sum of their isolated effects. The findings suggest that a big push for combined investments in fast internet and road access could enhance economic development in Africa overall. Firms and workers in urban locations, female workers, and workers with higher levels of education gain the most from the complementarities that emerge. |
| Date: | 2024–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10730 |
| By: | Arthur Fliegelman |
| Abstract: | Review of the rising premium costs and reduced availability of U.S. property insurance and its growing impact on real estate owners, lenders and governments. |
| Keywords: | property & casualty industry, climate, climate related, property insurance, homeowners insurance, national flood insurance program |
| Date: | 2023–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:ofrblg:23-18 |
| By: | Yongming Miao (School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, China); Yaokuang Li (School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, China); Yanrui Wu (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia) |
| Abstract: | For decades, fiscal decentralization and gross domestic product growth targeting have resulted in fierce economic competition among local governments in China, putting tremendous economic competitive pressure on them. The latter has serious social and economic implications and is a major issue for policymakers. This study analyzes data from China’s 30 provinces for 2011–2021. It demonstrates that digital economic development could considerably reduce economic, competitive pressure on local governments, with trade openness and entrepreneurial dynamism serving as impact mechanisms. This study also found that the alleviating effects are more pronounced in regions with a poor innovation environment, a less developed economy, or lagging human resources. These findings emphasize the important role of the digital economy in increasing regional competitiveness and reducing regional disparities. |
| Keywords: | digital economy, economic competition, trade openness, entrepreneurial dynamism, China |
| JEL: | O33 P25 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:24-06 |
| By: | Martins, Pedro S.; Ferreira, Joao R. |
| Abstract: | Can incentive schemes deliver value in the public sector, despite major principal-agent challenges? We evaluate a reform that introduced individual teacher performance-related pay and tournaments in public schools in Portugal, despite trade union opposition. We find evidence that the focus on individual performance decreased student achievement (as measured by national exams) and increased grade inflation. The results follow from a difference-in-differences analysis of matched student-school panels and two complementary control groups (including private schools). Students with a higher proportion of teachers exposed to tournaments also perform worse. Overall, our results highlight the social costs of disrupting workers’ cooperation, a possible unintended consequence of public-sector tournaments. |
| Keywords: | matched school-student data; merit pay; public sector; tournaments |
| JEL: | D78 M52 I28 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127285 |
| By: | Bassi, Marina; Besbas, Bruno Azzedine; Dinarte Diaz, Lelys Ileana; Ravindran, Saravana; Reynoso, Ana Maria |
| Abstract: | Using a randomized control trial, this paper studies an at-scale preschool construction program that serves poor communities in rural Mozambique. In addition to the construction of preschools, the program hired local instructors and provided parenting education sessions. The findings show that the program had high take-up rates, significantly increasing access to preschool education. Compared to a small base of 2 percent of children in control communities enrolled in preschool, the intervention increased preschool enrollment rates in treated communities by 73 percentage points. The program also had significant positive effects on enrollment in and progression through primary school, with an increase of 6 percentage points in enrollment in first grade at age 6, and a 0.16 standard deviation impact on an index of cognitive and social-emotional skills. Using m achine learning tools, the paper estimates substantial heterogeneity by child development skills at baseline. Moreover, the program caused parents in treated communities to invest more time in supporting their primary school-aged children. |
| Date: | 2024–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10814 |
| By: | Contreras, Hugo Alejandro; Vallejos, Cristian Esteban Candia; Rodriguez-Sickert, Carlos; Ferres, Leo; Olchevskaia, Rodrigo Vladislav Troncoso |
| Abstract: | In this study, we conduct a detailed empirical analysis of the relationship between personal feelings of insecurity, fear of crime, and the way individuals move and travel in their daily lives, with a particular focus on differences between genders. Our methodology combines subjective data gathered from individuals' reported perceptions of insecurity with objective data derived from digital mobile phone tracking, providing a comprehensive view of how these fears affect people's daily routines and travel patterns. The results of our research highlight that perceived insecurity significantly limits the mobility of individuals from both genders. However, this effect is more acute in women, indicating notable gender-based differences in the impact of perceived insecurity on day-to-day movements. The findings, revealing higher levels of insecurity and fear of crime among women, necessitate urgent policy action. Public policy must prioritize making public spaces, such as bus stops, squares, parks, sports courts, and streets, safer and more welcoming for women. This approach is essential for creating an urban environment that is inclusive, secure, and conducive to the well-being of all its inhabitants. |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y3fv5_v1 |
| By: | de Julian, Mikel |
| Abstract: | In the 1940s, almost 1.5 million african americans moved from the South to the North of the United States. Previous literature on the Great Migration has mostly focused on migrant outcomes and local effects in the North. This paper studies the impact of the Great Migration for those who stayed in the South. It employs linked, full-count census data for 1940 and 1950 as well as World War Two veteran records. Leveraging preexisting migrant networks and variation in war mobilization rates in the North, it identifies exogenous variation in out-migration from the South. It finds that a 10 percentage point increase in out-migration – the average rate in the 1940s – is associated with a 0.63 percentage point increase in a county’s income growth and a 0.72 years increase in its population’s educational attainment. Potential mechanisms include reductions in unemployment and farm mechanization. Taken together, these effects suggest the Great Migration led to economic convergence between the South and the North of the United States. |
| Date: | 2025–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5gw9p_v1 |
| By: | Selod, Harris; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Trotter, Ian Michael; Blankespoor, Brian |
| Abstract: | This paper uses four decades of data on Brazilian municipalities to study the separate and joint impacts of highway and electricity infrastructure access on local economic outcomes. The identification strategy employs difference-in-difference estimators with staggered adoption design. The results show strong contemporaneous effects of electrifying municipalities that already have access to a highway, whereas electrification or highway provision alone may, at best, have no effect. Infrastructure investments also facilitated long-lasting structural transformation effects, with both types of infrastructure access spurring growth of the industrial output share. |
| Date: | 2024–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10785 |
| By: | Kirchmaier, Tom; Oparina, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the relationship between a police officer's workload and the likelihood of statement withdrawal of domestic abuse victims. We focus our analysis on high-risk cases reported to Greater Manchester Police from January 2014 to March 2019. Using this unique dataset, combined with institutional knowledge, we show that adding 10 more cases to a police officer's monthly workload is associated with an increase of the probability of statement withdrawal of 3 percentage points, or 17% of the average withdrawal rate in our sample. The increased workload is likely to be the outcome of a substantial reduction in the police budget, implying that this paper provides additional indirect evidence of the secondary costs of austerity policies. |
| Keywords: | workload; productivity; police; austerity |
| JEL: | K42 H39 H56 |
| Date: | 2024–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126826 |
| By: | Kroen, Annette; Barnes, Emma; Hartley, Chris; Dodson, Jago; Butt, Andrew; Pawson, Hal |
| Abstract: | What this research is about? This research looks at how housing policy and planning can better prepare for natural disasters, and enable recovery from them. It examines institutional arrangements, planning coordination and disaster management responses. Why this research is important? Australia faces many natural hazards like bushfires, floods, storms and cyclones. Climate change is making these events more frequent and intense. Because housing is heavily impacted during disasters, it's crucial that housing policy works closely with disaster risk reduction and response. |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:t6j2w_v1 |
| By: | Spencer Bowdle |
| Abstract: | Minimum wage policies in the United States have lifted real earnings for workers around the low end of the income distribution (Dube, 2019) and thus may alleviate some of the financial stress felt by low-wage renters (Mateyka and Yoo, 2023). However, landlords, potentially facing a boost to local housing demand, may be able to capture some portion of these earnings' gains by raising rents, mitigating welfare benefits for affected workers. |
| Date: | 2025–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-02-14-2 |
| By: | Kim, Sang-O; Palm, Matthew; Han, Soojung; Klein, Nicholas J. (Conrell University) |
| Abstract: | Transportation scholars are keenly interested in the relationship between transportation and subjective well-being. To date, this body of scholarship has not addressed feelings of time pressure. We use the time crunch index from Canada’s 2015 General Social Survey (GSS) to analyze the role that transportation resources, travel behavior, and social demographics play in respondents’ self-reported experiences of time pressure. We find that resources and daily travel strongly affect the time crunch index and are compounded by the large effect of sociodemographic vulnerability, namely being a woman, immigrant, or member of an ethnic minority, and having a condition of disability. Our analysis presents a new approach for transportation scholars to measure the relationship between social well-being and transportation grounded in several decades of social science research on time use and well-being. |
| Date: | 2023–12–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z6tvd_v1 |
| By: | Feiter, Tim Johannes |
| Abstract: | In times of digitalization and the democratization of information, individuals face information overload, misinformation, and missing orientation. Considering the corporate word, the question occurs, how individuals can create value through creative behavior considering the information flood. Therefore, this dissertation investigates the processes behind knowledge generation and the role of social interactions in fostering individual creativity, with a specific focus on innovation within organizations. Drawing on a multidisciplinary approach, the research explores three critical perspectives: network structures, the dynamic process of knowledge exchange, and the application of natural language processing (NLP) for identifying creative contributions. The first research question focuses on how knowledge and social network structures jointly enable future learning and innovation. The findings highlight that knowledge network saturation plays a significant role in creative behavior, particularly in determining the balance between explorative and exploitative search activities. This interaction between knowledge and social networks, where both can compensate for each other, offers a nuanced understanding of how organizations can leverage social dynamics and knowledge structures to stimulate creativity. The second research question examines the impact of knowledge exchange on innovative behavior throughout the idea journey. Through an analysis of online communities, this research demonstrates that changes in individual interests over time are critical to fostering creativity. The dissertation identifies key temporal patterns that enhance the likelihood of creative outcomes, emphasizing the importance of managing both knowledge diversity and depth during the ideation process. The third research question explores the potential of advanced NLP techniques to automatically identify creative behavior from textual data. The research proposes a transfer learning methodology that demonstrates superior accuracy compared to traditional methods, offering a scalable solution for organizations seeking to evaluate large volumes of idea descriptions. This novel approach opens new avenues for utilizing artificial intelligence in innovation management. Overall, the dissertation contributes to innovation literature by providing theoretical and practical insights into knowledge generation processes, social networks, and AI-driven creativity assessment. These findings offer actionable strategies for organizations to cultivate environments that support creative individuals, enabling them to navigate the complexities of knowledge recombination and social interaction for successful innovation in times of information overload. |
| Date: | 2025–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:153302 |