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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Cigdem Gedikli (Swansea University); Robert Hill (University of Graz); Oleksandr Talavera (University of Birmingham); Okan Yilmaz (Swansea University) |
| Abstract: | Online platforms have transformed many markets, as evidenced by the rise of firms such as Amazon, Uber, and Airbnb. However, the recent emergence of online real estate agencies has not yet received much attention. We investigate the impact of online agencies on the housing market. Our dataset consists of 1, 274, 792 properties in England and Wales, for which we have matched Zoopla listings with actual transactions from the Land Registry. Using an IV approach, we find that time on market is shorter by about 80 days and the sale-list price ratio is smaller by about 2.4% for properties listed with online agencies. These findings, combined with an average fee of less than one-third of that charged by traditional agencies, explain why online agencies have rapidly gained market share. Their share has risen particularly for properties in the mid-price range and in regions with younger demographics. Also, we find that the rise of online agencies has caused traditional agencies to change their behavior – time on market and the sale-list price ratio are lower for traditional agencies in regions with a higher share of online agencies. |
| Keywords: | Online platforms; Digital disruption; Diffusion of new technologies; Real estate market; Time on market; Sale-list price ratio |
| JEL: | L85 L86 O33 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:25-01 |
| By: | Diogo Baerlocher (University of South Florida); Diego Firmino (Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco); Guilherme Lambais (Lusíada University of Lisbon); Eustaquio Reis (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada); Henrique Veras (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco) |
| Abstract: | Following the discovery of gold in 1694 in Brazil, pathways were constructed to connect coastal settlements to mining regions in the unpopulated interior. While these pathways initially facilitated the creation of road towns, their influence faded by the late nineteenth century. With the mid-twentieth-century demographic and industrial transition, regions with higher historical road density experienced renewed population growth and greater migrant inflows. We argue that this resurgence reflects the role of road towns in fostering early urbanization and structural transformation. Using an extended Rosen-Roback-Glaeser framework, we estimate strong agglomeration spillovers, suggesting that Brazil’s spatial economy exhibits multiple steady states and historical path dependence. |
| Keywords: | Historical Roads, Geography, Multiple Equilibria, Path Dependence, Persistence, Population Density |
| JEL: | R12 N96 O18 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usf:wpaper:2025-01 |
| By: | Afonso Câmara Leme (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE) |
| Abstract: | I study how a significant increase in the compulsory schooling leaving age, from 15 to 18 years old, can contribute to reducing early school leaving and changing students’ educational paths. I analyse the Portuguese reform of 2009, exploiting the fact that grade retention in the 7th grade in this year provides quasi-experimental variation in exposure to the new policy. While effects for the overall student population are small or null, lower-achieving students significantly increase their schooling duration. Additionally, some sub-groups of lower-achieving students, particularly boys and those enrolling in upper-secondary school, increased their graduation probabilities. At the same time, I do not find that school quality decreased. These findings carry implications for research using compulsory schooling reforms as instruments for education, and inform policies aimed at supporting at-risk students. |
| Keywords: | Compulsory schooling age, school dropout, early school leaving, differencein- differences, grade retention |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I26 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2436 |
| By: | Elaine Drayton (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); David Sturrock (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/04 |
| By: | Davide M. Coluccia; Gaia Dossi |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that out-migration promotes the diffusion of innovation from the country of destination to the country of origin of migrants. Between 1870 and 1940, nearly four million British immigrants settled in the United States. We construct a novel individual-level dataset linking British immigrants in the US to the UK census, and we digitize the universe of UK patents from 1853 to 1899. Using a triple-differences design, we show that migration ties contribute to technology diffusion from the destination to the origin country. The text analysis of patents reveals that emigration promotes technology transfer and fosters the production of high-impact innovation. Return migration is an important driver of this "return innovation" effect. However, the interactions between emigrants and their origin communities - families and neighbors - promote technology diffusion even in the absence of migrants' physical return. |
| Keywords: | age of mass migration, innovation, networks, out-migration |
| Date: | 2025–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2069 |
| By: | Clare A. Balboni; Joseph S. Shapiro |
| Abstract: | How do environmental goods and policies shape spatial patterns of economic activity? How will climate change modify these impacts over the coming decades? How do agglomeration, commuting, and other spatial forces and policies affect environmental quality? We distill theoretical and empirical research linking urban, regional, and spatial economics to the environment. We present stylized facts on spatial environmental economics, describe insights from canonical environmental models and spatial models, and discuss the building blocks for papers and the research frontier in enviro-spatial economics. Most enviro-spatial research remains bifurcated into either primarily environmental or spatial papers. Research is only beginning to realize potential insights from more closely combining spatial and environmental approaches. |
| JEL: | F18 F64 H23 J61 O18 Q50 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33377 |
| By: | Mohiuddin, Hossain; Fukushige, Tatsuya; Fitch-Polse, Dillon |
| Abstract: | Micromobility options such as electric bike-share and scooter-share services are a fundamental part of the existing shared mobility landscape. Research has shown that micromobility use can reduce car dependence. This is accomplished through trip-level mode replacement and adjustments in mode-use configurations in daily travel. Understanding the full potential of micromobility services as a car replacement can help cities better plan for the services to meet environmental sustainability goals. Researchers at the University of California, Davis collected GPS-based travel diary data from individual micromobility users from 48 cities in the US and examined their travel behavior and micromobility use patterns. They found that micromobility services can displace car use. To achieve environmental sustainability goals, cities must pursue options that will deliver benefits, such as micromobility services. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bicycles, micromobility, modal split, scooters, travel surveys, vehicle miles of travel, vehicle sharing |
| Date: | 2025–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt91w588s7 |
| By: | Albert Park (Economic Research and Development Impact Department (ERDI), Asian Development Bank); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Menghan Shen (School of Government, Sun Yatsen University); Sangui Wang (China Institute of Poverty Alleviation, Renmin University of China); Heng Wang (School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China); Ze Wang (The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the impact of having a mentally disordered peer on middle school students’ social preferences after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China. Using random classroom assignments, height-based seating arrangements, and lab-inthe-field experiments such as dictator and public goods games, the study has found that having a disabled peer significantly enhances altruistic behavior, driven largely by empathy among students with shared traumatic experiences. These findings highlight how peer effects in post-disaster contexts foster social cohesion and prosocial behaviors, reflecting a self-recovery mechanism inherent in human nature that may mitigate secondary trauma and improve welfare. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1239 |
| By: | Disney, Richard (London School of Economics); Gathergood, John (University of Nottingham); Machin, Stephen (London School of Economics); Sandi, Matteo (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | "Right to Buy" (RTB) was a large-scale UK housing policy whereby incumbent tenants in public housing could buy their properties at heavily subsidised prices. The policy increased the national homeownership rate by over 10 percentage points between 1980 and the late 1990s. A key feature of RTB is that housing tenure changes did not involve residential mobility, as the policy bestowed homeownership on households in disadvantaged neighbourhoods in the public housing where they were already resident. This paper shows that exposure to RTB at birth significantly improved pupil performance in high-stakes exams and the likelihood to obtain a degree, while also improving labour earnings in young adulthood. The key drivers of these human capital gains are the wealth gains arising from the subsidy and the crime reduction generated by RTB. This is evidence of a novel means by which homeownership, and the resulting societal change and neighbourhood gentrification that accompanies it, contribute to increase human capital accumulation and improve educational and work outcomes for individuals in disadvantaged, low-income childhood settings. |
| Keywords: | human capital, homeownership, public housing |
| JEL: | I21 I28 K14 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17633 |
| By: | Ho, Phoebe; Zmud, Johanna PhD; Walker, Joan PhD |
| Abstract: | Our study examined geographic and temporal patterns in service adjustments and evaluated their job accessibility impacts for three major San Francisco Bay Area transit agencies between 2020 and 2023: the Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit), the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART), and the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (MUNI). This retrospective analysis can help transit agencies develop equitable service strategies in the event of future disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt0dj471j8 |
| By: | Nicola Stalder (University of Bern); Michael Mayer (Schweizerische Mobiliar Versicherungsgesellschaft); Steven C. Bourassa (University of Washington); Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Aberdeen - Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes how machine learning techniques and explainable artificial intelligence can be leveraged to estimate combined location value. We analyze listed apartment rents using gradient boosted trees, which allow for flexible modelling of non-linear effects and high order interactions among covariates. We then separate location value from structure value by imposing interaction constraints. Finally, we use the additivity property of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to extract the combined effects of location-related covariates. These effects are then compared across different geographical levels (regional and national). The empirical analysis uses a rich dataset consisting of listed rents and property characteristics for approximately 300, 000 apartments in Switzerland. We start with an unconstrained model that allows for flexible interactions between location variables and structural characteristics. We then impose interaction constraints such that structural characteristics no longer interact with location variables or each other. This step is required to extract the pure value of location independent of any interactions with structural characteristics. The constrained model improves interpretability while retaining a high degree of accuracy. What would otherwise be a cumbersome calibration of locational values is replaced by a simple extraction of the corresponding feature effects using SHAP. The results should prove useful in improving hedonic models used by property tax assessors, mortgage underwriters, valuation firms, and regulatory authorities. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic models, SHAP values, location values, explainable artificial intelligence, machine learning, gradient boosting |
| JEL: | R31 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2502 |
| By: | Ayllón, Sara (Universitat de Girona); Lado, Samuel (Universitat de Girona) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to provide, in the European context, credible causal estimates for the impact on educational achievement of a means-tested programme that subsidises school lunches. We use administrative data from the city of Barcelona for the whole universe of applications to the programme. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we measure the effect of receiving a partial subsidy, as opposed to none; meanwhile a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) strategy allows us to account for the effect of receiving a full subsidy, compared to a partial one. Our results indicate an overall positive effect of the subsidies on educational achievement across all the subjects analysed, with statistically significant estimates only for Catalan language. Heterogeneous results show that those who benefit most are boys who attend large schools and have peers who are, on average, more socio-economically advantaged. The opportunity for subsidy recipients to spend more time at school during lunch, and to communicate and socialise with wealthier and linguistically more competent children is the mechanism that lies behind our main findings. |
| Keywords: | school meals, subsidies, means-tested programmes, children, educational achievement, language proficiency, standardised test scores, annual grades |
| JEL: | H42 H52 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17631 |
| By: | Chimbutane, Feliciano (Eduardo Mondlane University); Karachiwalla, Naureen (IFPRI, International Food Policy Research Institute); Herrera-Almanza, Catalina (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Leight, Jessica (International Food Policy Research Institute); Lauchande, Carlos (Universidade Pedagogica Maputo) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by extremely low levels of basic reading skills in sub-Saharan Africa, we experimentally evaluate two interventions designed to enhance students' early-grade literacy performance in rural Mozambique: a relatively light-touch teacher training in early-grade literacy along with the provision of pedagogical materials, and reacher training and materials in conjunction with community-level reading camps. Using data from 1, 596 third graders in 160 rural public primary schools, we find no evidence that either intervention improved teachers' pedagogical knowledge or practices or student or teacher attendance following two years of implementation. There are some weak positive effects on student reading as measured by a literacy assessment, primarily observed in a shift away from scores of zero, and these effects are consistent across arms. Our findings are consistent with the growing consensus that more intensive school- and/or community-based interventions are required to meaningfully improve learning. |
| Keywords: | teacher training, primary school, literacy, randomized control trial, Mozambique |
| JEL: | I25 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17611 |
| By: | Ballatore, Rosario Maria (Bank of Italy); Palma, Alessandro (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Vuri, Daniela (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | Using Italian data on the universe of mandatory tests conducted in a low-stakes setting without air conditioning, we investigate the effect of temperature on student performance, with a focus on how manipulation distorts causal estimates of temperature effects on test scores. While high temperatures adversely affect students' performance, we find that score manipulation also increases with temperature within a specific range. Leveraging the random assignment of inspectors to schools as a natural experiment, we estimate the effect of temperature on test scores net of manipulation. We find that achievement declines at lower temperature thresholds when manipulation is accounted for, implying a larger number of affected students than previously estimated. Additionally, individual survey responses collected during the tests indicate that very high temperatures induce shifts in students' emotional states, affecting self-esteem and anxiety levels. |
| Keywords: | student performance, temperature, manipulation, cognitive ability, emotional stress |
| JEL: | J21 J24 Q54 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17643 |
| By: | Giorgia Trasciani (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Often perceived as a threat to employment, public order and safety, immigration is still a high priority on the political agenda of the European Union Members States. However, even because conceived as a concession, little is said about the quality of reception for asylum seekers, and the respect for their rights. This work focuses specifically on the reception systems of two cities, Marseille, and Naples, and how civil society, tired of silently observing the harassment suffered by migrants, organised in order to support migrants' struggles, asking for a decent service of reception and integration. Based on semi-structured interviews with local social movements, associations and different members of civil society, this work aims to shed light on acts of solidarity that take place daily in our cities, contrasting the selective migration policy and the increasingly privatised service of reception promoted by national public authorities. |
| Keywords: | Popular Control, Social movement, Migration, Human rights NGO |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04882839 |
| By: | CURTALE Riccardo (European Commission - JRC); STUT Martijn (European Commission - JRC); ALESSANDRINI Alfredo; DEUSTER Christoph (European Commission - JRC); BATISTA E SILVA Filipe (European Commission - JRC); NATALE Fabrizio (European Commission - JRC); DIJKSTRA Lewis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The European Union is experiencing profound demographic shifts. This paper presents an analysis of observed population trends encompassing observations for the period 2000-2022 and projections until 2040 at the NUTS3 level. The projections were obtained by regionalizing the 2021 Ageing Report’s demographic projections using the Demography-Economy-Land use interaction (DELi) model, which considers explicitly the interlinkages between demographic and economic dynamics. Results show that urban regions are expected to increase their populations primarily due to economic opportunities pulling migrants, while intermediate and rural regions are projected to face population decline, with remote rural regions being the most affected. The natural change rate is trending downwards across all regional typologies, while the net migration rate, historically positive in all typologies, is projected to compensate for the natural change only in urban regions. The implications of these demographic changes are far-reaching, affecting labour markets, public service provision, and economic growth. The paper discusses the potential for regional convergence in GDP per capita, particularly in rural regions close to cities, and the challenges posed by changes in the demographic structure, affected by increasing old age dependency ratio and a shrinking working-age population, and the need for adaptation. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202501 |
| By: | Léonard Moulin; Florent Sari |
| Abstract: | In order to estimate the causal impact of grade retention in French lower secondary school on various long-term outcomes, we conducted a longitudinal study on the trajectories of French students who entered grade 6 in the 1995-1996 academic year over a period of 17 years. The results indicate that grade retention has a significant negative impact on both obtaining a secondary school diploma and a higher education qualification. This affected students across all socioeconomic groups, both boys and girls. However, the negative effect on wages is observed only for boys and for students from low socioeconomic backgrounds. A series of robustness checks confirm the reliability of the results. |
| Keywords: | grade retention, educational outcomes, labor market outcomes, propensity score matching, medium-term effects, secondary education, France, REUSSITE SCOLAIRE / EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT, SCOLARITE / SCHOOLING, FRANCE / FRANCE, ENSEIGNEMENT SECONDAIRE / SECONDARY EDUCATION, MARCHE DU TRAVAIL / LABOUR MARKET, ANALYSE LONGITUDINALE / LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:kj4n0jqb_l7qij6swt7i |
| By: | Alona Shmygel (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management; National Bank of Ukraine); Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Aberdeen - Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates house price dynamics over the very long term using data for Stockholm from 1420 to 2021. We identify overvaluation periods and assess house price responses to systemic events such as price bubbles, wars, and epidemics. We first construct the price-to-income ratio and detect 14 bubble episodes with an average duration of 4.2 years. Using regression analysis, we then find that house prices generally declined by 11-17 percent after the onset of a war, with the results depending on the type of war, and by 16 percent following a bubble burst, with a cumulative impact reaching-27 percent over five years. Epidemics show no significant effect on house prices, with only a short-lived 10% decline when isolated from overlapping events like wars. This research provides a unique, six-century perspective on housing market resilience to systemic shocks. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2509 |
| By: | Ryan Niladri Banerjee; Denis Gorea; Deniz Igan; Gabor Pinter |
| Abstract: | Inflation receded from recent peaks, but housing cost growth remains elevated. This strength reflects pandemic-induced changes in housing supply and demand which further aggravated existing pressures from long-standing housing shortages and demographic trends. Strong growth of the housing component of inflation can be a concern for monetary policy because it tends to be more persistent than components related to other services and goods, reflecting lags in measurement and infrequent changes in rents. In the short term, rents and housing costs may rise after a monetary policy tightening if landlords pass higher financing costs to tenants, property developers reduce new supply or more households opt to rent rather than buy. |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:89 |
| By: | Leanne Nam |
| Abstract: | Unemployment leads to large and persistent income losses for workers. Higher unemployment in the labor market therefore has spillover effects on the housing market. This paper studies such spillover effects from both empirical and theoretical perspectives. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), I show that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 1.55% decline in housing prices. Theoretically, I develop an overlapping generations model with a housing market. The calibrated model replicates the empirically observed spillover effect for the U.S. economy. Higher income uncertainty is the main driver of the spillover effect, rather than actual income losses. The spillover effect transmits one-third of the welfare losses of workers due to higher unemployment in the labor market to older, retired households by reducing their housing wealth. Younger workers benefit in part by buying houses at depressed prices. The magnitude of the spillover effect is shaped by the demographic structure of the population and the specific age groups affected by unemployment shocks. I find that increasing the generosity of unemployment insurance stabilizes the housing market, although it only partially mitigates the spillover effect. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, Housing demand, Portfolio choice, Overlapping generations |
| JEL: | G11 R21 E21 E24 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_636 |
| By: | Taherianfard, Elahe; Heydari, Mohammad Hossein; Niknam, Taher; Baziar, Aliasghar; Askari, Mohammadreza |
| Abstract: | This study explores the integration of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and Genetic Programming (GP) to address key challenges in the development of smart cities as cyber-physical systems (CPS). The primary objective is to enhance decision-making processes, optimize resource allocation, and improve energy management within urban infrastructures. VAEs are employed for dimensionality reduction and feature extraction, enabling efficient processing of large-scale urban data, while GP is utilized for optimization, ensuring the effective configuration and management of smart city systems. The proposed framework is evaluated across various metrics, including energy consumption, system resilience, and traffic flow optimization. The results demonstrate substantial improvements over traditional methods, highlighting the potential of the VAEs + GP combination in tackling complex CPS challenges. This approach not only contributes to the advancement of smart city technologies but also offers a scalable and adaptive solution to the evolving demands of urban environments. Overall, the study showcases the transformative potential of combining deep learning and evolutionary algorithms to build sustainable and intelligent smart cities. |
| Keywords: | Smart Cities, Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), Genetic Programming (GP), Resource Allocation, Energy Management, Dimensionality Reduction, Optimization Algorithms, Urban Data Processing, Intelligent Systems |
| JEL: | Q0 Q4 Q41 R0 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123271 |
| By: | Luc (Zhilu); Chen |
| Abstract: | This study examines the causal impact of being placed on the Dean's List, a positive education incentive, on future student performance using a regression discontinuity design. The results suggest that for students with low prior academic performance and who are native English speakers, there is a positive impact of being on the Dean's List on the probability of getting onto the Dean's List in the following year. However, being on the Dean's List does not appear to have a statistically significant effect on subsequent GPA, total credits taken, dropout rates, or the probability of graduating within four years. These findings suggest that a place on the Dean's List may not be a strong motivator for students to improve their academic performance and achieve better outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.09763 |
| By: | Elliott, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | In the United States, individual and collective economic well-being is closely tied to homeownership. But there is an emerging set of complex issues where climate impacts intersect with housing markets. As climate disasters hit with greater intensity and frequency, the economic effects will be felt not only as the underlying assets are damaged or destroyed, but also as those experiences, and expectations of similar ones to come, are “priced in” to the judgments of what homes in floodplains, on the storm-exposed coasts, and in the wildland-urban interface are worth. Drawing on scholarship on economic valuation, racism and housing markets, and homeownership in American political economy and culture, I outline a sociology of property value that can help us to approach this matter analytically as it unfolds empirically. This approach allows us to better see how social actors will shape the climate-changed world by determining whether, how, and with what effects property values change. I illustrate these potential contributions through application to a court case in which the question of what, precisely, was happening to property value—and whether, by extension, proximity to the water is an amenity or a risk—was the primary point of contention. The implications open onto fundamental questions about the future of safe and secure housing in a climate-changed United States. |
| Keywords: | homeownership; United States; climate change; property value; valuation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125922 |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | In the presence of segregation and discrimination during the late 19th and early 20th century, many African American men changed their racial identity and “passed” for white. Previous studies have suggested that this activity was associated with increases in income and socioeconomic status despite the costs associated with cutting ties with their black communities. This study adds to this literature by evaluating the long-run effects of passing on old-age longevity. We construct longitudinal data of black families in historical censuses (1880-1940) linked to their male children’s Social Security Administration death records (1975-2005). We use family fixed effects to demonstrate that individuals passing as white live approximately 9.4 months longer, on average, than their non-passing siblings. Additional analyses suggest substantial improvements in education and occupational standing scores as well as differential parental investments as potential pathways. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 J1 J15 N0 N32 N33 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33394 |
| By: | Brice Fabre (aParis School of Economics (PSE) and Institut des Politiques Publiques (IPP)); Marc Sangnier (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses French data to simultaneously estimate the impact of two types of connections on government subsidies allocated to municipalities. Investigating different types of connection in a same setting helps to distinguish between the different motivations that could drive pork-barreling. We differentiate between municipalities where ministers held office before their appointment to the government and those where they lived as children. Exploiting ministers’ entries into and exits from the government, we show that municipalities where a minister was mayor receive 30% more investment subsidies when the politician they are linked to joins the government, and a similar size decrease when the minister departs. In contrast, we do not observe these outcomes for municipalities where ministers lived as children. These findings indicate that altruism towards childhood friends and family does not fuel pork-barreling, and suggest that altruism toward adulthood social relations or career concerns matter. We also present complementary evidence suggesting that observed pork-barreling is the result of soft influence of ministers, rather than of their formal control over the administration they lead. |
| Keywords: | Local favouritism, distributive politics, Political Connections, personal connections. |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H50 H77 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2434 |
| By: | Casas, Pablo; Christou, Tryfonas; García Rodríguez, Abián; Lazarou, Nicholas Joseph; Salotti, Simone |
| Abstract: | We provide a macroeconomic evaluation of the impact of the 2014-2020 European Social Fund, the Youth Employment Initiative and the labour market interventions of the REACT-EU programme, using data updated to the end of 2023. We use the spatial dynamic general equilibrium model RHOMOLO, modified to include endogenous labour force participation, to analyse the impact of nearly €110 billion in total, showing how GDP, employment, wages and various measures of inequality respond to the policies. The results suggest that the European labour market policy has a substantial positive impact on the regional economies of the Union and on the labour force, with long-lasting positive effects on GDP and employment, and a reduction in regional disparities and macroeconomic educational mismatches. |
| Keywords: | European Social Fund, regional labour markets, general equilibrium modelling. |
| JEL: | C68 J20 J30 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123410 |
| By: | Tomoki Fujii (Singapore Management University); Christine Ho (Singapore Management University); Rohan Ray (National University of Singapore); Abu S. Shonchoy (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | Extended school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted students' study habits and routine educational engagement, specially in low-income settings where distance education often fails to reach disadvantaged populations. We use a field experiment in rural Bangladesh to determine whether increasing parental engagement can mitigate these disruptions, particularly in the post-pandemic recovery stage. Our findings reveal that a high-frequency information intervention—delivered through weekly text messages and automated voice calls—significantly increases parents' awareness and children's self-study hours, particularly in households lacking access to technology. By disseminating information on available learning resources, teachers' contact details, and the benefits of education, the intervention boosts daily self-study hours by 15 percent. Although Bangladesh's simplified post-pandemic school promotion and shortened syllabus constrained our ability to measure academic improvements, the intervention narrowed study-hour inequalities, promoting upward mobility (and reducing downward mobility) among households without technology access. Shapley-value decomposition analyses indicate that 5-20 percent of the reduced inequality is attributable to the direct treatment effect. Better parental involvement—encouraging children to use learning resources and more household investment in private tutoring—appears to be an important causal channel. Our findings underscore the potential of scalable, low-cost, parent-focused programs to bolster learning continuity under adverse conditions — particularly important for low- and middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | high-frequency information, study hours, post-pandemic recovery |
| JEL: | D91 H75 I24 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | Edoardo di Porto (University of Naples Federico II Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant’Angelo, Via Cintia, 21, 80126 Napoli, Italia); Angela Parenti (University of Pisa, Via Ridolfi 10, 56124 Pisa, Italy); Sonia Paty (Université Lumière Lyon 2, CNRS, Université Jean- Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne UMR 5824, 35 rue Raulin, 69007 Lyon, FRANCE) |
| Abstract: | The existing literature identifies a negative relationship between jurisdiction size and voter participation. Previous studies have primarily examined this correlation through local government mergers or amalgamations, which often fail to establish a robust causal link due to limitations in natural experimental settings. To address this gap, we analyze the French experience of intermunicipal cooperation (2001–2018), where municipalities transfer specific responsibilities and fiscal revenues from the local to the intermunicipal level. Leveraging an exogenous population-based rule, our analysis reveals that voter turnout in municipal elections significantly declines in newly integrated communities. This reduction in participation is enduring, persisting even after the introduction of direct elections for intermunicipal governments. Further analysis on the mechanisms behind these effects shows that these municipalities experience a notable decrease in fiscal revenues for approximately two years following their integration decision. Our findings suggest that when less is at stake, in terms of responsibilities and fiscal revenues in highly integrated municipalities, citizens feel less involved and electoral participation decreases. |
| Keywords: | Decentralization, integration, electoral participation, fiscal revenues, cooperation, quasinatural experiment |
| JEL: | H2 H3 H7 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2502 |
| By: | Caria, Andrea (University of Cagliari); Checchi, Daniele (University of Milan); Paolini, Dimitri (University of Sassari) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of television on student achievement in Italy, utilizing the staggered rollout of digital television across Italian provinces to isolate television's influence. Using data from national educational assessments (INVALSI) collected in four grades from 2009 to 2012, we uncover a negative effect of television on school performance by applying difference-in-differences techniques. We observe a positive correlation between TV viewing and test scores for a subset of the survey. Still, the negative impact is partly confirmed when instrumenting hours of view with the availability of digital channels. We also find significant heterogeneity: foreign-born pupils benefit from the greater availability of TV channels, while children with graduate parents experience less significant achievement losses. |
| Keywords: | digital television switchover, school performance |
| JEL: | I24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17623 |
| By: | Hassnae HAMMOU OU ALI (Bank Al-Maghrib) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the role of housing prices in the Moroccan economy and their response to monetary policy shocks. Using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we explore the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy through various channels, including interest rates, credit availability, and consumer confidence. The analysis uses a comprehensive dataset spanning the period from 2006 to 2024, focusing on macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy instruments, and the Real Estate Asset Price Index (REPI). Empirical findings reveal that contractionary monetary policy leads to a delayed decline in housing prices, which may reflect structural rigidities in Morocco's real estate market. This study contributes to understanding the interplay between monetary policy and asset markets in emerging economies, providing insights for policymakers seeking to balance growth and stability objectives. |
| Keywords: | Real estate prices; Monetary policy; Interest rate; transmission channels |
| JEL: | E52 E40 R32 C32 |
| Date: | 2025–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp03-2025 |
| By: | Robert Gold; Jakob Lehr |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the "development objective" ("Objective-1") of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in- Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Union’s regional policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU. |
| Keywords: | Populism, Regional Policies, European Integration, Regression Discontinuity Design |
| JEL: | D72 H54 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_638 |
| By: | Shawn Bushway; Andrew Jordan; Derek Neal; Steven Raphael |
| Abstract: | We construct a framework that defines optimal outcomes in criminal courts, and we use this framework to interpret and organize the existing literature on racial disparities in pretrial detention, sentencing, and community corrections outcomes. Existing research indicates that some actors within courts and within the agencies that implement the sentences that courts impose make decisions that are contaminated by racial animus or racially biased assessments of the recidivism risks posed by some offenders. However, the most important sources of racial disparities in case outcomes are numerous practices, regulations, and laws that are too punitive, i.e. their social costs are likely greater than any derived social benefits. Since minorities, especially Blacks, face arrest at much higher rates than whites, they bear large disparate impacts from such policies. |
| JEL: | K0 K14 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33403 |
| By: | Johannes Fleck; Jonathan Heathcote; Kjetil Storesletten; Giovanni L. Violante |
| Abstract: | Combining a variety of survey and administrative data, this paper measures the progressivity of taxes and transfers at the U.S. federal level and separately for each state. The findings are as follows. (i) The federal tax and transfer system is progressive. (ii) State and local tax and transfer systems are close to proportional, on average. (iii) There is substantial heterogeneity in tax levels and tax progressivity across states. (iv) States that are funded mostly by sales and property taxes tend to have regressive tax systems and low average tax rates. States that are funded mostly by income taxes tend to have progressive tax systems and high average tax rates. (v) Regressive states are concentrated in the South and attract more inter-state net migration, especially of high-income migrants. (vi) State progressivity has remained broadly stable between 2005 and 2016. (vii) Incorporating corporate income and business taxes decreases average state progressivity but increases federal progressivity. (viii) Including spending on public goods and services as a transfer has a large positive impact on measured progressivity. |
| JEL: | E60 H10 R28 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33385 |
| By: | Ilciukas, Julius (University of Amsterdam); Lundborg, Petter (Lund University); Plug, Erik (University of Amsterdam); Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of having siblings on school outcomes of first-born children. By leveraging exogenous variation in first and later IVF treatments, we construct an improved instrumental variable estimator that tackles exclusion violations and identifies causal effects for compliers and always takers with siblings from later treatments. With nationwide school surveys linked to administrative records, we find that first-born children with and without siblings perform equally well on nationwide reading and math tests, are equally conscientious, agreeable, and emotionally stable, and report the same levels of school well-being. We conclude that the cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes of school-aged first-born children neither benefit nor suffer much from having siblings. |
| Keywords: | cognitive and non-cognitive development, siblings |
| JEL: | I21 J13 C26 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17641 |
| By: | Herbert Schuetze (Department of Economics, University of Victoria); Jen Baggs (Department of Economics, University of Victoria) |
| Abstract: | The earnings outcomes of recent immigrants to Canada are considerably below those of similarly skilled native-born workers and these gaps rarely fully dissipate over time. A few recent studies examine the importance of unobserved firm-level wage premiums in explaining immigrant-native wage gaps. These studies find that the sorting of immigrants into low wage establishments explains a significant portion of the initial earnings gap between immigrants and native-born workers and that movements to higher wage firms over time partially explains why immigrant wages catch up to those of the native born. Likely due to a lack of detailed information on firm attributes, very little is known about the role of observed firmlevel characteristics in immigrant wage outcomes. This paper focuses on the relationship between observable establishment-level characteristics and the relative wage outcomes of immigrants using linked Canadian employee-employer data from Statistics Canada’s Workplace and Employment Survey (WES) for 2005. We augment a human capital model with a rich set of observed establishment-level characteristics to identify the precise establishment attributes driving firm-specific wage premiums and the establishment characteristics associated with unobserved worker-firm match quality across immigrants and the native born. We find that, while several observed establishment characteristics are associated with firm pay premia, the average skill level of employees at a firm plays a particularly important role in the sorting of immigrants across establishment. Recent arrivals to Canada are sorted into establishments with lower average skill levels, which is associated with lower wages. Such sorting is concentrated among immigrants from non-traditional source countries. With time in Canada, immigrants move to establishments with higher average skill levels. JEL Classification: J15 J31 J62 |
| Keywords: | Immigrant, wage differential, firm characteristics |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vic:vicddp:2406 |
| By: | Blodgett, Kyler; Haddad, Gabe; Slichter, Erin; Snyder, Breitling |
| Abstract: | College Ave is an important north-south corridor in the City of Berkeley, extending from the southeast edge of the UC Berkeley campus down into Oakland. It is home to a mix ofresidential and commercial buildings and is well known for its quaint community character, especially within the Elmwood District. This makes it not only an important link in the street network, but also a bustling destination for many. Vehicles, buses, bikes, and pedestrians share the narrow corridor, which can lead to conflicts between users. The corridor has been identified as one of three “Priority Development Areas” in the City to be upzoned, which would entail changing parcel-level zoning codes to incentivize denser development. Though the City currently has no plans to improve the right-of-way along with the parcel-level zoning codes, this will be vital to ensuring a functioning and thriving CollegeAve as density increases in the years to come. Our report identifies existing conditions for College Ave and uses this information, along with guidance from City staff and other stakeholders, to provide recommendations for right-of-way and other transportation improvements. Our recommendations focus primarily on the portion of College Ave from Bancroft Way to Ashby Ave, though some recommendations are applicable to the entire street within Berkeley borders. Based on ourobservations and meetings with stakeholders, we chose to use safety and community vitality as the guiding principles for our report. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt45s940qz |
| By: | Ibourk Mouad (Faculté Polydisciplinaire de Khouribga); Saïd Sghir (Faculté Polydisciplinaire de Khouribga - Université Hassan Premier) |
| Abstract: | Since the beginning of the 21st century, Morocco has undertaken an ambitious strategy to transform its major cities and enhance their competitiveness. Territorial marketing lies at the heart of this initiative, aiming to attract investments, improve citizens' quality of life, and promote a strong local identity. Casablanca, as the economic capital of the kingdom, embodies this vision through a series of iconic large-scale urban projects. The methodology used in this study combines several complementary approaches. First, a literature review establishes a robust theoretical framework, analyzing the connections between urban planning and territorial marketing. Next, three case studies are examined in depth: Casa Anfa, evaluated for its integrated strategy blending real estate, green spaces, and finance; the Casablanca tramway, analyzed for its role in modernizing public transport and structuring urban mobility; and the Aïn Diab Corniche, assessed as a lever for enhancing tourist appeal and improving living conditions. These analyses are underpinned by qualitative and quantitative data collected from official reports, field observations, and documentary reviews. The results of this research highlight that these major urban projects address the needs of a growing population while attracting both national and international investors. They contribute to modernizing Casablanca's image, diversifying its functions, and improving its quality of life. As an innovative and sustainable metropolis, Casablanca positions itself as a key player in regional and international urban transformation. These findings demonstrate Casablanca's ability to embed territorial marketing principles into its development strategy, emphasizing the critical role of large urban projects in bolstering the city's competitiveness and sustainability. |
| Abstract: | Depuis le début du XXIe siècle, le Maroc s'est engagé dans une stratégie ambitieuse visant à transformer ses grandes villes et renforcer leur compétitivité. Le marketing territorial a été placé au centre de cette dynamique, avec pour objectifs d'attirer les investissements, d'améliorer le cadre de vie des citoyens et de promouvoir une identité locale forte. Casablanca, en tant que capitale économique du royaume, incarne parfaitement cette vision à travers un ensemble de grands projets urbains emblématiques. La méthodologie adoptée dans cette étude repose sur plusieurs approches complémentaires. Tout d'abord, une revue de la littérature établit un cadre théorique solide en explorant les liens entre urbanisme et marketing territorial. Ensuite, trois études de cas spécifiques sont approfondies. Casa Anfa est analysée pour sa stratégie intégrée, combinant immobilier, espaces verts et finance. Le tramway de Casablanca est étudié pour son rôle dans la modernisation des transports publics et la structuration de la mobilité urbaine. La Corniche d'Aïn Diab est examinée en tant que levier d'attractivité touristique et d'amélioration du cadre de vie. Ces analyses s'appuient sur des données qualitatives et quantitatives collectées à partir de rapports officiels, d'observations sur le terrain et d'analyses documentaires. Les résultats de cette étude montrent que ces grands projets urbains répondent aux besoins d'une population en expansion tout en attirant des investisseurs à l'échelle nationale et internationale. Ils contribuent à moderniser l'image de Casablanca, diversifier ses fonctions et améliorer son cadre de vie. En se positionnant comme une métropole innovante et durable, Casablanca joue un rôle clé dans la transformation urbaine régionale et internationale. Ces initiatives démontrent la capacité de Casablanca à intégrer les principes du marketing territorial dans sa stratégie de développement, mettant en lumière le rôle central des grands projets urbains dans la compétitivité et la durabilité de la ville. |
| Keywords: | Major urban project, urban project, territorial marketing, marketing, competitiveness, brand image, territory, Morocco, Casablanca, attractiveness, Grand projet urbain, projet urbain, marketing territorial, compétitivité, attractivité, image de marque, territoire, Maroc |
| Date: | 2024–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04856005 |
| By: | Victor Couture; Jonathan I. Dingel; Allison E. Green; Jessie Handbury |
| Abstract: | We study how preferences over the demographic composition of co-patrons affects income segregation in shared spaces. To distinguish demographic preferences from tastes for other venue attributes, we study venue choices within business chains. We find two notable regularities: preferences for high-income co-patrons are similar across racial groups, and racial homophily does not vary by income. These demographic preferences are economically large, explain much of the cross-group variation in exposure to high-income co-patrons, and correlate with movers' neighborhood choices. |
| JEL: | C55 D12 J1 L8 R2 R4 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33386 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker (U Warwick and Monash U); P. David Boll (U Warwick); Hans-Joachim Voth (U Zurich) |
| Abstract: | Spatial unit roots can lead to spurious regression results. We present a brief overview of the methods developed in Müller and Watson (2024) to test for and correct for spatial unit roots. We also introduce a suite of Stata commands (-spur-) implementing these techniques. Our commands exactly replicate results in Müller and Watson (2024) using the same Chetty et al. (2014) data. We present a brief practitioner's guide for applied researchers. |
| Keywords: | spurtest, spurtransform, spurious spatial regression, spatial unit roots |
| JEL: | C21 C22 C52 C87 R12 R15 N90 P50 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2025-01 |
| By: | Dangel, Alexander; Goeschl, Timo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies temporal factors influencing the effectiveness of don't drive appeals (DDAs) which policy-makers use to encourage motorists to voluntarily reduce driving during transitory high pollution episodes. We derive and empirically validate a theoretical framework for DDAs where the desired behavioral response is sensitive to the number of consecutive DDA days and recovery time between episodes. Our analysis of daily traffic ows from automatic traffic counters in Stuttgart, Germany shows that DDAs at best reduce overall car trip demand during pollution events by less than 1% on average, but treatment effects vary. Difference-in-difference event study estimates reveal that DDAs: i) lead to approximately 3% traffic reductions on the first three days of DDAs and taper off in effectiveness during longer episodes, ii) regain effectiveness at the tail end of DDA episodes once local authorities announce when they will be lifted, and iii) only reduce city center traffic following lengthy recovery periods between events. Our findings provide evidence that temporal factors like social norms and intertemporal substitution dynamically affect voluntary short-term pollution mitigation programs. They also confirm prior North American evidence on DDA traffic displacement and limited overall impact in a European setting. |
| Keywords: | pollution mitigation; information-based regulation; voluntary policies; air quality alerts; policy timing; prosocial behavior; transportation choice |
| Date: | 2025–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awi:wpaper:0760 |
| By: | González-Leonardo, Miguel |
| Abstract: | Population projections and forecasts below the regional level are widely used by governments for spatial planning, including service provision and infrastructure. However, projections and forecasts are often produced only at national and regional scales. In this paper, I use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the rural population size of the 50 Spanish provinces up to 2040. The results predict that the rural population in Spain will remain around 8 million inhabitants until 2024, but 25 out of 50 provinces will experience rural population shrinkage, particularly those in Northwest Spain. For instance, Ourense, Zamora, and León are forecasted to lose more than 30% of the rural population. Additionally, depopulation is expected to accelerate across provinces affected by rural population shrinkage. |
| Date: | 2025–01–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hjp4z |
| By: | Meng, Zhiyi |
| Abstract: | AI is emerging as a key disruptor of local economies. The impact of AI technologies including machine learning, automation and precision farming in reshaping local business landscape, unlocking innovation, enhancing productivity and creating net new jobs, is yet to be fully appreciated. This paper provides an analysis of the role of AI in revitalising local economies: how AI technologies are enabling small and medium sized enterprises (SME) to improve productivity, how rural economies can overcome labour shortages and supply chain issues and how to realise AIs transformative potential in the near term. It goes on to discuss the impact of AI on labour markets, the creation of net new jobs in data and drone related occupations and need for reskilling and upskilling. It also discusses the role of local governments in encouraging AI adoption through public-private partnerships, tax incentives and infrastructure improvements. The paper concludes with a discussion about how AI shapes the future of work, the need to address the digital divide and the role of AI in fostering sustainable economic development at the local level. This paper analyses the impact of AI on productivity, consumer engagement, supply chain optimisation and workforce transformation. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence; local economies; business innovation; workforce transformation |
| JEL: | O33 R11 J24 L20 H76 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127002 |
| By: | Larissa Fuchs; Pia Pinger; Philipp Seegers |
| Abstract: | Based on novel administrative and survey data from Germany, this study investigates the importance of relative STEM performance in high school for the gender gap in STEM enrollment. We first document that males display a higher relative STEM performance than females, which however mainly emerges from females' stronger achievement in non-STEM subjects. Our findings further reveal that a one-standard-deviation increase in grade-based STEM advantage raises the likelihood of pursuing a STEM degree by approximately 19 percentage points for males, but only by half as much for females. A decomposition analysis shows that 26% of the STEM gender gap could be attributed to differences in grade-based STEM performance if major preferences resembled those of males. However, relative grades are largely unimportant in an environment where preferences mirror those of females. This suggests that STEM performance differences have limited influence on females' decisions to pursue STEM degrees. While STEM advantage significantly impacts observed gender gaps in STEM enrollment, this effect is primarily driven by males. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, STEM enrollment, relative grades, ranks |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_633 |
| By: | Bruce Sacerdote; Douglas O. Staiger; Michele Tine |
| Abstract: | We find that test score optional policies harm the likelihood of elite college admission for high achieving applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. We show that at one elite college campus, SAT (and ACT) scores predict first year college GPA equally well across income and other demographic groups; high school GPA and class rank offer little additional predictive power. Under test score optional policies, less advantaged applicants who are high achieving submit test scores at too low a rate, significantly reducing their admissions chances; such applicants increase their admissions probability by a factor of 3.6x (from 2.9 percent to 10.2 percent) when they report their scores. High achieving first-generation applicants raise admissions chances by 2.4x by reporting scores. Much more than commonly understood, elite institutions interpret test scores in the context of background, and availability of test scores on an application can promote rather than hinder social mobility. |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33389 |
| By: | Alina K. Bartscher; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick; Ulrike I. Steins |
| Abstract: | Using new household-level data, we study the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its distribution since 1950. Most of the debt were mortgages, which initially grew because more households borrowed. Yet after 1980, debt mostly grew because households borrowed more. We uncover home equity extraction, concentrated in the white middle class, as the largest cause, strongly affecting intergenerational inequality and life-cycle debt profiles. Remarkably, the additional debt did not lower households’ net worth because of rising house prices. We conclude that asset-price-based borrowing became an integral part of households’ consumptionsaving decisions, yet at the cost of higher financial fragility. |
| Keywords: | household debt, home equity extraction, inequality, household portfolios, financial fragility |
| JEL: | G51 E21 E44 D14 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_634 |
| By: | S. Balia; R. Brau; S. Pau |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the population health effects of Italian Local Health Authorities' consolidation. The reform centralized administrative functions and expanded the scale of health service provision, creating entities with larger catchment areas. Using an event-study Difference-in- Differences design, we estimate the policy's impact on municipal mortality rates, accounting for heterogeneous treatment effects. Results reveal a significant increase in mortality rates starting four years after implementation, with an average 1.8% rise in total mortality observed four to nine years post-consolidation. Deaths from preventable conditions among individuals aged 0-74 disproportionately explain this increase. The adverse effects were primarily concentrated in municipalities within absorbed LHAs. Evidence indicates that expected economies of scale failed to improve health outcomes; instead, the reform imposed considerable health costs, particularly in municipalities belonging to larger LHAs and those with more extensive catchment area expansions. Moreover, we document that the effects were unevenly distributed, creating new vulnerable areas. |
| Keywords: | mortality;Local healthcare units;Event-study;Consolidation policy;National Health System |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202502 |
| By: | Francisco Cabrera-Hernandez (Department of Economics, CIDE); Mateo Hoyos (Department of Economics, CIDE); Emmanuel Chavez (Department of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of import competition on educational attainment in Mexico, emphasizing its effects through labor market dynamics. Using China's entry into global trade markets as a source of exogenous variation, we implement a shift-share approach to measure regional exposure to Chinese imports and employ a staggered difference-in-differences estimation strategy—marking a novel contribution to the China Shock literature. Our analysis reveals that import competition negatively affected educational outcomes, increasing dropout rates and the proportion of students falling behind their normative grade. These outcomes were accompanied by sustained wage declines, particularly in the secondary and tertiary sectors. We identify a significant decline in the returns to schooling as the primary mechanism explaining the adverse educational effects. Our findings offer novel empirical evidence linking import competition to reduced returns to schooling. |
| Keywords: | China Shock, import competition, educational attainment, returns to schooling |
| JEL: | F14 F16 I25 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte645 |
| By: | Zoe B. Cullen; Bobak Pakzad-Hurson; Ricardo Perez-Truglia |
| Abstract: | We estimate the value employees place on remote work using revealed preferences in a high-stakes, real-world context, focusing on U.S. tech workers. On average, employees are willing to accept a 25% pay cut for partly or fully remote roles. Our estimates are three to five times that of previous studies. We attribute this discrepancy partly to methodological differences, suggesting that existing methods may understate preferences for remote work. Because of the strong preference for remote work, we expected to find a compensating wage differential, with remote positions offering lower compensation than otherwise identical in-person positions. However, using novel data on salaries for tech jobs, we reject that hypothesis. We propose potential explanations for this puzzle, including optimization frictions and worker sorting. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 M54 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33383 |
| By: | Harrison Katz; Erica Savage; Peter Coles |
| Abstract: | Short-term shifts in booking behaviors can disrupt forecasting in the travel and hospitality industry, especially during global crises. Traditional metrics like average or median lead times often overlook important distribution changes. This study introduces a normalized L1 (Manhattan) distance to assess Airbnb booking lead time divergences from 2018 to 2022, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic across four major U.S. cities. We identify a two-phase disruption: an abrupt change at the pandemic's onset followed by partial recovery with persistent deviations from pre-2018 patterns. Our method reveals changes in travelers' planning horizons that standard statistics miss, highlighting the need to analyze the entire lead-time distribution for more accurate demand forecasting and pricing strategies. The normalized L1 metric provides valuable insights for tourism stakeholders navigating ongoing market volatility. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.10535 |
| By: | Iogansen, Xiatian; Lee, Yongsung; Circella, Giovanni; Malik, Jai |
| Abstract: | Beginning in 2020, many in-person activities were replaced by virtual activities as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This affected fundamental elements of transportation systems such as trip frequency, commute distance, origins, and destinations. For example, remote work and study werewidely adopted among workers and students. Still, the ways that the pandemic affected individuals’ work arrangements across different phases of the pandemic and the extent to which full remote work and hybrid work induced by the pandemic might persist in the future are unclear. In addition, recent studies are not conclusive regarding the ways changes in work arrangements do/will impact travelpatterns and trip making. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8400819h |