|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Clemence M. Idoux; Viola Corradini |
| Abstract: | Differences in school choice by race contribute to school segregation and unequal access to effective schools. Conditional on test score and district of residence, Black and Hispanic families consistently choose schools with fewer white and Asian students, lower average achievement, and lower value-added. This paper combines unique survey data and administrative data from New York City to identify the determinants of racial disparities in school choice and shows that attending a more diverse middle school can mitigate racial choice gaps. Instrumental variable estimates show that middle school students exposed to more diverse peers apply to and enroll in high schools that are also more diverse. These effects particularly benefit Black and Hispanic students who, as a result, enroll in higher value-added high schools. A post-application survey of guardians of high school applicants suggests that most cross-race differences in choice stem from information gaps and homophily in preferences for school demographics. The survey results also reveal that exposure to diverse middle school peers reduces racial differences in choices by addressing these underlying determinants: it increases preferences for peer diversity and broadens the range of known school options. |
| JEL: | C26 I2 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33179 |
| By: | Tran Huynh (Durham University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the extent to which local newspaper closures affect discrimination against minority borrowers in mortgage lending. I Ä„nd that following a newspaper closure, interest rate differentials between minority (black or Hispanic) and comparable non-minority borrowers increase by 5.5 basis points, widening the existing gap in mortgage outcomes between the two groups. This effect cannot be explained by differences in credit risk or underlying economic conditions. My Ä„ndings suggest that the local press plays an important role in monitoring lending practices and reducing information asymmetries in the mortgage market. |
| Keywords: | lending, discrimination, minority, GSE mortgages, local newspapers |
| JEL: | G21 J15 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2025-0002 |
| By: | Jaller, Miguel; Thorne, James H.; Rivera-Royero, Daniel; Whitney, Jason; Hu, Alexander Kenichi; Saha, Ayush |
| Abstract: | This project examines multi-hazard risks and the performance of emergency evacuation routes in California using spatial synthesis, mapping, modeling, and performance analysis techniques. It enhances evacuation planning by analyzing road networks under natural hazard scenarios. Key tasks included: 1. Collecting and organizing evacuation route data for 190 cities, revealing that only 23 had comprehensive GIS maps, highlighting gaps in current planning. 2. Assessing road network performance under various hazards for 450 cities, identifying high-risk areas, and classifying cities based on risk levels and concentration. 3. Analyzing evacuation routes during the 2018 Camp and Thomas fires, using mathematical modeling and Omniscape to assess bottlenecks and evacuation efficiency. 4. Evaluating evacuation route performance for different population segments and proposing improvements, including using public transit for future wildfire evacuations. The findings provide actionable insights for improving emergency evacuation strategies in the state. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Risk, resilience, wildfire, multi-hazard, evacuation, California, spatial index |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt72f801mf |
| By: | Taylor Jaworski; Erik O. Kimbrough; Nicole Saito |
| Abstract: | We propose a new measure of cultural distance based on differences in the composition of first names and church denominations between locations. We use a gravity equation to estimate the elasticity of migration flows with respect to the two components of cultural distance as well as a standard measure of travel costs via the transportation network in the United States between 1850 and 1870. Our findings indicate a modest role for cultural distance relative to travel costs in explaining migration flows. We construct migration costs that reflect the distinct contributions of cultural distance and travel costs, and use an economic geography model of migration to quantify their effects. Travel costs are substantially more important than cultural distance for aggregate welfare. Nevertheless, we provide evidence that the components of cultural distance play a role in shaping of how many people move and their final destinations. |
| JEL: | N0 N71 N91 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33192 |
| By: | Yuliya Demyanyk; Luis Lopez; Nitzan Tzur-Ilan |
| Abstract: | Expectations and sentiment of economic agents about financial prospects are both the drivers and the leading indicators of economic phenomena. This paper shows that neighborhood labels, frequently used in realtors’ property descriptions, have a causal impact on the demand for housing. Results indicate that appraised values, house prices and rents increased in minority neighborhoods upon removal of neighborhood labels. The underlying mechanism likely works through forming expectations about future growth in housing markets, as documented by the decrease in the rent-to-price ratio and lack of change in the creditworthiness of the neighborhood residents. |
| Keywords: | real estate; valuations; house price expectations; housing demand; neighborhood |
| JEL: | G12 G41 G50 O18 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99474 |
| By: | Antoine-Cyrus Becharat; Michael Benzaquen; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud |
| Abstract: | We analyze the French housing market prices in the period 1970-2022, with high-resolution data from 2018 to 2022. The spatial correlation of the observed price field exhibits logarithmic decay characteristic of the two-dimensional random diffusion equation -- local interactions may create long-range correlations. We introduce a stylized model, used in the past to model spatial regularities in voting patterns, that accounts for both spatial and temporal correlations with reasonable values of parameters. Our analysis reveals that price shocks are persistent in time and their amplitude is strongly heterogeneous in space. Our study confirms and quantifies the diffusive nature of housing prices that was anticipated long ago (Clapp et al. 1994, Pollakowski et al. 1997), albeit on much restricted, local data sets. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.14624 |
| By: | Thomas A. Fackler; Oliver Falck; Simon Krause; Thomas Fackler |
| Abstract: | Governments worldwide subsidize rural broadband expansion to address the urban-rural connectivity divide, but the economic benefits and costs remain unclear. This paper examines the causal effect of high-speed Internet on real estate prices and evaluates the fiscal effectiveness of rural broadband subsidies. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design and comprehensive micro-data, our identification strategy exploits variation at state borders from German states’ broadband expansion policies. We find that high-speed Internet availability (16 Mbit/s) increases rents by 3.8 percent (€17/month) and sale prices by 8 percent (€14, 700) compared to slower access at the discontinuity, with diminishing returns at higher speeds. The capitalization effects are demand-driven, as evidenced by increased broadband uptake, migration, and remote work adoption, while property supply remains unaffected. A cost-benefit analysis within the marginal-value-of-public-funds framework shows the economic surplus exceeds deployment costs for 90 percent of households, while property owners benefit from subsidies through higher property prices. |
| Keywords: | high-speed broadband internet, real estate prices, capitalization effect, policy evaluation, local public finance, spatial RDD, MVPF |
| JEL: | D60 H40 H70 L86 R20 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11595 |
| By: | Mr. Philip Barrett; Brandon Tan |
| Abstract: | We use a shift-share approach to estimate the impact of inward immigration on local inflation in the United States. We find that a higher rate of immigration reduces inflation, lowering it by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points following a doubling of immigration. Higher immigration flows also lower local goods inflation, increase local housing and utilities inflation, and have no statistically significant impact on inflation in other services. Effects are approximately two and three time larger for working age and low-education immigrants. We do not detect a statistically significant impact of more educated immigrants on overall inflation, but they do increase local housing inflation. Our results can be jointly rationalized by a simple general equilibrium model where the substitutability of capital and labor varies across industries but capital is fixed in the short run. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; inflation |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/005 |
| By: | Alex Buckland (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin University); Adam Crowe (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School); Alan S Duncan (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin University); Steven Rowley (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School); Ryan Brierty (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School) |
| Abstract: | The latest report in the BCEC Focus on WA report series, Housing Affordability in Western Australia 2023: Building for the future, compares housing affordability in WA to other jurisdictions for both homeowners and renters to get a sense of where WA sits. This research looks at overall affordability and where the key pressures are that people face from rising interest rates, construction project delays and escalating rental costs. |
| Keywords: | Western Australia, WA economy, housing pathways, housing affordability, income and wealth, financial disadvantage, mortgage stress, housing stress. |
| JEL: | O18 R21 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ozl:bcecrs:fwa17 |
| By: | Giacomo Battiston (ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin); Lucia Corno (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Eliana La Ferrara (Università Bocconi) |
| Abstract: | Can providing information to potential migrants influence their decisions about risky and irregular migration? We conduct an experiment with over 7, 000 secondary school students in Guinea, providing information through video testimonials by migrants who settled in Europe and through aggregate statistics. We implement three treatments: (i) information about the risks of the journey; (ii) information about economic outcomes in the destination country; and (iii) a combination of both. One month after the intervention, all treatments led students to update their beliefs about the risks and the economic outcomes of migration, resulting in decreased intentions to migrate. One year later, the Risk Treatment resulted in a 51% decline in migration outside Guinea. This effect was driven by a decrease in migration without a visa (i.e., potentially risky and irregular) and was more pronounced among poorer students. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a model where individuals choose between not migrating, migrating regularly, or migrating irregularly, and where information increases the perceived cost of irregular migration, thus decreasing migration among poorer students who cannot afford regular migration. |
| Keywords: | irregular migration, trafficking, information experiment, Guinea |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J61 D8 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2434 |
| By: | Martinez, Natalie; Guarino, Jenny |
| Abstract: | Our project was largely inspired by the report Decarcerating Transportation - a Mobility Justice Framework, by the Anti-Police Terror Project. This report gives background on the link between transportation and the criminal legal system and the negative repercussions especially for communities of color. It also provides a roadmap with concrete policy recommendations for localities to take on the task of decarcerating transportation, with the goals of removing police from public transit and traffic enforcement, universalizing accessibility to public transportation, and ending punitive systems involving fines and fees that further exacerbate financial insecurities of marginalized communities. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1bc5c16h |
| By: | Adam Crowe (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School); Alan S Duncan (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin University); Steven Rowley (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School) |
| Abstract: | Building the Dream, the ninth report in the BCEC Focus on Industry series, reveals that at current rates of dwelling completion, Western Australia (WA) will fall well short of the National Accord target of 25, 000 new dwelling units per year. The WA construction sector has faced significant challenges from skills shortages, including the loss of workers to other industries or states, fluctuating dwelling approvals, high material costs, and contracting arrangement that have placed enormous pressure on the viability of property development projects. These issues have eroded the capacity of the sector to meet unprecedented levels of housing demand. However, should these issues be addressed, the sector has the potential to contribute significantly to the state’s economic, social and environmental progress. The report suggests recommendations to address workforce shortages, alongside more efficient use of existing housing stock, increasing the diversity of available housing options in WA, and the sector’s contributions to net zero. |
| Keywords: | housing supply, housing demand, urban planning, construction costs, housing affordability, skills, excess demand |
| JEL: | L74 R3 N67 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ozl:bcecrs:fi09 |
| By: | Milene Tessarin; Ron Boschma; Deyu Li; Sergio Petralia |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an evolutionary perspective on regional development traps that centers around the structural inability of regions to develop new and complex occupations. Using European Labor Force Survey data, we follow occupational trajectories of 237 European regions and provide evidence on which regions are trapped, what kinds of traps they have fallen into, and which regions have managed to escape such traps. We find a clear-cut divide in Europe: almost all non-trapped regions are in Northern and Western Europe, while trapped regions are found primarily in South and Eastern Europe. However, this geographical divide does not apply to all types of regional traps. Our results also show that regional development traps are persistent: regions often remain in the same trap, but not always. Our study suggests a feasible pathway for low-complexity regions to overcome a development trap is by building capabilities in related occupations and then diversify into complex occupations. Once complexity levels are high, regions tend not to lose their complexity. |
| Keywords: | regional development traps, evolutionary traps, occupations, relatedness, complexity, low complexity trap, structural trap |
| JEL: | J24 J82 R11 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | Arianna Salazar-Miranda; Zhuangyuan Fan; Michael B. Baick; Keith N. Hampton; Fabio Duarte; Becky P.Y. Loo; Edward L. Glaeser; Carlo Ratti |
| Abstract: | We analyze changes in pedestrian behavior over a 30-year period in four urban public spaces located in New York, Boston, and Philadelphia. Building on William Whyte's observational work from 1980, where he manually recorded pedestrian behaviors, we employ computer vision and deep learning techniques to examine video footage from 1979-80 and 2008-10. Our analysis measures changes in walking speed, lingering behavior, group sizes, and group formation. We find that the average walking speed has increased by 15%, while the time spent lingering in these spaces has halved across all locations. Although the percentage of pedestrians walking alone remained relatively stable (from 67% to 68%), the frequency of group encounters declined, indicating fewer interactions in public spaces. This shift suggests that urban residents increasingly view streets as thoroughfares rather than as social spaces, which has important implications for the role of public spaces in fostering social engagement. |
| JEL: | R41 Z13 Z30 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33185 |
| By: | Eduardo Amaral Haddad; Inaciao F.Araujo |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the contributions of Brazil’s blue economy and explores the economic interdependence between coastal and hinterland regions through interregional linkages. Employing a multi-level approach, we analyze municipality and state-level data on oceanrelated activities. Using an interstate input-output model, we estimate the value chains of the blue economy, offering a deeper understanding of its systemic impacts. This study addresses gaps in national, regional, and local assessments, providing insights for more tailored policy interventions across Brazil’s diverse coastal regions. As Brazil works towards achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 by 2030, our analysis underscores the structural diversity and regional disparities within the blue economy. We advocate for the coordination of sector and region-specific policies, emphasizing the importance of an integrated regional approach. Such an approach recognizes the interconnectedness of coastal economies, addressing shared challenges and leveraging regional strengths for sustainable development. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp_08-24 |
| By: | Miremad Soleymanian; Yi Qian |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effectiveness of virtual tours and digital marketing strategies in enhancing real estate sales using a unique dataset combining MLS data, government-assessed property values, and agents’ marketing activities. While virtual tours are often perceived as a powerful tool to boost sales, their impact is context-dependent. Using classical econometric models and causal machine learning techniques, we find that virtual tours increase property sale prices by an average of 1%. However, the effect has declined over time, particularly post-COVID, indicating a shift from being a novel feature to a standard practice. Further analysis using causal random forests reveals significant heterogeneity in their effectiveness across property attributes, market conditions, and agent characteristics. Virtual tours are less impactful for highly differentiated properties but more beneficial in competitive markets and for less experienced agents who lack familiarity with the local market. These results suggest that real estate agents may benefit from considering property features, market dynamics, and their own experience when deciding how to use virtual tours. Our findings offer valuable insights for practitioners looking to optimize digital marketing strategies and enhance sales performance. |
| JEL: | O31 R3 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33204 |
| By: | Mauricio S. de Carvalho; Patrícia C. Melo; Bruno T. Rocha; Isabel Proença; João de Abreu e Silva |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal effects of road accessibility, measured by market potential, on firm births in Portuguese municipalities between 1991 and 2016, a period marked by significant road improvements. We address the endogeneity of market potential by employing instrumental variables within Poisson Pseudo-maximum Likelihood estimates with fixed effects, which we refer to as “non-local time-variant historical instruments”. Our estimated elasticities for firm births range from 1.6 to 1.9 for the 1-year interval and 1.2 to 1.3 for the 5-year interval. Additionally, we find a greater positive effect on firm births when excluding the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto, which is indicative evidence of a heterogeneous spatial effect. We also find that the impact of the enlarged market potential is heterogeneous across sectors. Our results are robust to changes in model specification and the usage of alternative measures of the instruments. |
| Keywords: | road investment; firm births; market potential; Poisson Pseudo-maximum; Likelihood; instrumental variables. |
| JEL: | O18 R39 R49 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03642025 |
| By: | Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Chau, Nancy H. (Cornell University); Wang, Yudi (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | Campus closures due to COVID19 created uneven student-level exposures to the challenges of home-based virtual learning. Using university administrative data, and exogenous class-level differences in pre-pandemic on-campus housing assignments for parallel trend validation, this paper unpacks student-by-course variations in grade expectations using within-semester switches in grade option choice as a lens. We find causal evidence that distance from campus and internet access affected grade option choices in select student groups (female, non-URM, non-STEM). By tracking access to friends at the student-course level using administrative records, we find that within-class peer support can offset learning challenges even in virtual environments. |
| Keywords: | satisfactory/unsatisfactory grade option, COVID-19, distance education, learning outcomes |
| JEL: | I20 I29 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17599 |
| By: | Stephen Calabrese; Dennis Epple; Richard Romano |
| Abstract: | Beginning in the 1970’s, many state courts declared the widespread inequality in education spending across schools to violate their state’s constitution. Funding systems then emerged providing differing approaches to state and local support of education. We develop a theoretical framework and characterize outcomes under alternative systems. Our framework is distinctive in having voting over policies in both state and local elections. We also develop a calibrated computational model to compare equilibrium outcomes under the alternative school finance systems and to examine across state differences in expenditures. The model predicts that voters prefer systems with mixed state and local finance with designs mirroring those observed in practice. |
| JEL: | H10 H19 H72 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33212 |
| By: | Cunneen-Franco, Morgan; Schroer, Lisa; Villaseñor, Esteban |
| Abstract: | Our work revealed that the current status quo may be dangerous for people living in the Berkeley Hills. As the City considers upzoning single-family residential districts in the Berkeley Hills, impeded emergency response access, hindered evacuation, and traffic violence have the potential to compound existing risk. To address these challenges, a diverse set of infrastructure and policy prescriptions should be implemented. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt71b7z80t |
| By: | Jeffrey P. Cohen; Violeta A. Gutkowski |
| Abstract: | Tornados’ impacts on real asset prices have not been extensively explored in a causal analysis framework. We estimate the effects of damage from a major tornado in Little Rock, AR on prices of nearby non-damaged residential real assets. We study how a typical home’s proximity to damaged properties might have led to a discount in the price of the subject property due to blight in the neighborhood. We focus on homes that sold between January 2022 and August 2024, and compare the effects of the March 31, 2023 tornado on sale prices for homes near versus far from damaged houses. For homes within 250 meters from a tornado-damaged home, our difference-in-differences estimates imply an average discount of 29 to 35 percent for all home sales, relative to those homes further away. These effects attenuate with greater distance from the damage points. The presence of additional damaged homes nearby lead to a significant house price discount in the range of 8 percent (within 250m) to 2 percent (within 500m). There is no additional significant discount for homes in lower-income Census block groups, implying homeowners who live in lower income neighborhoods do not perceive different real asset price effects of nearby tornado damage than other homeowners. |
| Keywords: | residential real asset prices; tornadoes; inequality |
| JEL: | R0 |
| Date: | 2024–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99461 |
| By: | Erlend Eide Bø; Odd Erik Nygård; Thor Olav Thoresen (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Different types of taxation include the market value of housing or housing returns in their tax base, making it essential to obtain accurate and up-to-date assessments of property values. However, to value residential property represents a major challenge for tax administrations due to informational constraints. In the present paper we present and discuss a simple, inexpensive, and transparent procedure for assigning market value to each dwelling in Norway, based on deriving estimates from hedonic regressions. The valuations are updated yearly to reflect changes in market value. This is a novel example of using predictions obtained from regression estimates to define full-scale housing values for tax purpose. We present and discuss two iterations of the method: the initial prediction model introduced in 2010 and a refined version that would offer substantial improvements without the need for additional data collection efforts. |
| Keywords: | Taxation of housing; Hedonic regression; Housing valuation |
| JEL: | C51 D31 H61 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1019 |
| By: | Sofia Amaral; Aixa Garcia-Ramos; Selim Gulesci; Alejandra Ramos; Sarita P. Ore-Quispe; Maria Micaela Sviatschi |
| Abstract: | Gender-based violence (GBV) at schools is a pervasive problem that affects millions of adolescent girls worldwide. In partnership with the Ministry of Education in Mozambique, we developed an intervention to increase the capacity of key school personnel to address GBV and to improve students’ awareness as well as proactive behaviors. To understand the role of GBV on girls’ education, we randomized not only exposure to the intervention but also whether the student component was targeted to girls only, boys only, or both. Our findings indicate a reduction in sexual violence by teachers and school staff against girls, regardless of the targeted gender group, providing evidence of the role of improving the capacity of key school personnel to deter perpetrators. Using administrative records, we also find that in schools where the intervention encouraged proactive behavior by girls, there was an increase in their school enrollment, largely due to an increased propensity for GBV reporting by victims. Our findings suggest that effectively mitigating violence to improve girls’ schooling requires a dual approach: deterring potential perpetrators and fostering a proactive stance among victims, such as increased reporting. |
| JEL: | I25 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33203 |
| By: | Lionel Wilner (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Using the 2016 merger of French regions as a natural experiment, this paper adopts a difference-in-differences identification strategy to recover its causal impact on individual subjective well-being. No depressing effect is found in the short term; life satisfaction has even increased in regions that were absorbed from both economic and political viewpoints. The empirical evidence at stake suggests that local economic performance has enhanced in these regions, which includes a faster decline of the unemployment rate. In the context of a unitary state, economic gains have therefore outweighed cultural attachment to administrative regions. |
| Keywords: | Merger of regions, Natural experiment, Difference-in-differences, Subjective well-being, Centralization |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04799406 |
| By: | Ruedin, Didier |
| Abstract: | The objective of this research synthesis is to collect and summarize the research literature on Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland. This is done through a systematic review, mostly in the form of a narrative review and with statistical indicators that are synthesized. There is a wide range of evidence on Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland and their integration, although substantive and systematic gaps remain. The review provides a brief historical background, looks at the demographic composition of Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland, discusses economic integration, housing, education, social integration, crime and safety, health and well-being, and attitudes to Ukrainian refugees. Much less is known about cultural integration and political participation. Given the size of the population and the ongoing war in Ukraine, more research on Ukrainian refugees is warranted, particularly in the direction of successful integration in a context where return seems increasingly unlikely --- although dual-intent remains the official focus ---, and in areas beyond economic integration that affect well-being and intentions to return. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Switzerland, attitudes, demographics, economics, education, health, housing, integration, media, participation, literature review, refugees |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J15 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:308844 |
| By: | Berger, Thor (Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study (SCAS),); Karadja, Mounir (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Prawitz, Erik (Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University) |
| Abstract: | We document that large cities were instrumental in shaping women’s work and family outcomes in the early 20th century. We focus on migrants to Stockholm, Sweden’s largest city, using representative, linked census data. Female migrants to Stockholm saw persistent changes in work and family outcomes over the life-cycle. Migrants were approximately 50 percentage points more likely to enter the labor force and less likely to marry or have children than their sisters migrating to rural areas. They experienced skill-upgrading and higher real incomes, without adverse mortality effects. Early structural shifts towards services partly explain these patterns. |
| Keywords: | Female labor force participation; Migration; Urbanization; Economic history |
| JEL: | I15 N93 Q25 |
| Date: | 2025–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1516 |
| By: | Zenne Hellinga; Julia Bachtrögler-Unger; Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Ron Boschma |
| Abstract: | The Smart Specialization Strategy (S3) is a cornerstone of the EU’s Cohesion Policy, with over €61 billion allocated for Research & Innovation from 2014 to 2020. This paper explores the prioritization of technological domains within regional S3 strategies and their influence on funding allocation of the European Regional Development Fund. Our findings indicate that while regions select a broad range of S3 priorities, they tend to prioritize those more related to their existing technological capabilities. This is particularly true for less developed andtransition regions. The lack of selectivity in S3 strategies appears to be mitigated when these priorities are converted into funding allocations. There we observe that funding allocation appears to align more closely with regional capabilities than initial S3 priorities. We also find that, although the complexity of technologies is somewhat considered in selecting S3 priorities, it seems to gain importance when regions dedicate their funding to specific R&I projects. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2502 |
| By: | Silke Anger (Institute for Employment Research); Jacopo Bassetto (University of Milan); Malte Sandner (Nuremberg Institute for Technology) |
| Abstract: | While Western countries worry about labor shortages, their institutional barriers to skill transferability prevent immigrants from fully utilizing foreign qualifications. Combining administrative and survey data in a difference-in-differences design, we show that a German reform, which lifted these barriers for non-EU immigrants, led to a 15 percent increase in the share of immigrants with a recognized foreign qualification. Consequently, non-EU immigrants’ employment and wages in licensed occupations (e.g., doctors) increased respectively by 18.6 and 4 percent, narrowing the gaps with EU immigrants. Despite the inflow of non-EU immigrants in these occupations, we find no evidence of crowding out or downward wage pressure for natives. |
| Keywords: | Skill Transferability, Occupational Recognition, Immigrant Integration |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J62 F2 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2427 |
| By: | Ronize Cruz (Centre for Business and Economics Research, University of Coimbr); Francisco Nobre (University of Surrey, School of Economics); João Pereira dos Santos (Queen Mary University of London; ISEG - University of Lisbon, REM/ UECE; IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the rapid rise in short-term rentals (STRs) in Portugal and their impact on the performance of local businesses. Using comprehensive firm-level data covering all private companies, we find that exposure to STRs increases the probability of business closures, particularly for low-performing firms. For surviving incumbent firms, we estimate a significant surge in sales for both resident- and tourist-oriented businesses, along with increases in employment, wage bill, and liquidity for the latter. In civil parishes with greater STR exposure, we observe a higher probability of new firm entry, reshaping the urban business landscape. |
| Keywords: | Short-term rentals, Local businesses, Tourism, Portugal |
| JEL: | R12 L25 L83 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2024-04 |
| By: | Pascal Ricordel (EDEHN - Equipe d'Economie Le Havre Normandie - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université) |
| Abstract: | A common statement found in regional policy reports is that regional growth is an "export or die" issue. However, the succession of disruptions in the international supply chain has highlighted the crucial roles of domestic activities, local markets and short supply chains, turning the environmental and resilience challenge present in growth policy into a "domestic or die" issue. Recent regional growth theories have seriously questioned export activity as the only way in which to drive regional growth and have highlighted the crucial role of the domestic sector. However, no empirical study has assessed the roles of the domestic and export sectors in growth during this troubled economic period, despite the usefulness of this information for nonbiased policy decisions. Using a spatial endogenous regional growth model as a framework, we investigate the role of the domestic sector during the 1999–2014 period for 263 European Union (EU) Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) regions. The results stress the importance of domestic productivity for regional growth during this period, which is characterized by three economic shocks, thereby elucidating the importance of domestic productivity for competitiveness and resilience issues. |
| Keywords: | domestic export sectors economic base theory endogenous growth model regional Dutch disease regional growth regional resilience spatial model, domestic export sectors, economic base theory, endogenous growth model, regional Dutch disease, regional growth, regional resilience, spatial model |
| Date: | 2024–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04841821 |
| By: | Bill Dupor; Marie Hogan; Jingchao Li |
| Abstract: | While the original papers on the inflation-unemployment relationship, i.e., the Phillips curve, studied aggregate data, a recent generation of work has moved to regional analysis. We estimate Phillips curves in the US based on regional data between 1958 and 2013, from which we can recover the national Phillips Curve. We find that the curves’ evolution over time is characterized by changing cross-region spillovers largely due to a subset of 1970s observations. We show that for these observations, regional inflation exhibits strong negative comovement with national unemployment even after controlling for own region unemployment, resulting in a negative spillover in the regional Phillips curve regression. Aggregating across regional curves, the negative spillover works to steepen the national Phillips curve. The local (regional), spillover and national Phillips curve slopes observed in the data are qualitatively consistent with a simple multi-region monetary model with endogenous monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | local spillover decomposition; Phillips curve |
| JEL: | E3 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99477 |
| By: | David Neumark; Jyotsana Kala |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive analysis of the effects of minimum wages on blacks, and on the relative impacts on blacks vs. whites. We study not only teenagers – the focus of much of the minimum wage-employment literature – but also other low-skill groups. We focus primarily on employment, which has been the prime concern with the minimum wage research literature. We find evidence that job loss effects from higher minimum wages are much more evident for blacks, and in contrast not very detectable for whites, and are often large enough to generate adverse effects on earnings. We supplement this work with additional analysis that distinguishes between effects of an individual’s race and the race composition of where they live. The extensive residential segregation by race in the United States raises the question of whether the more adverse effects of minimum wages on blacks are attributable to more adverse effects on black individuals, or more adverse effects on neighborhoods with large black populations. We find relatively little evidence of heterogeneity in effects across areas defined by the share black among residents. But the large disemployment effects for blacks coupled with strong residential segregation imply that that adverse effects of minimum wages are concentrated in areas with high concentrations of blacks. |
| JEL: | J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33167 |
| By: | Mirjam Bachli (HEC University of Lausanne); Albrecht Glitz (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | Immigration may affect income inequality not only by changing factor prices but also by inducing policy makers to adjust the prevailing income tax system. We assess the relative importance of these economic and political channels using administrative data from Switzerland where local authorities have a high degree of tax autonomy. We show that immigrant inflows not only raise gross earnings inequality but also reduce the progressivity of local income taxes, further increasing after-tax inequality. Our estimates suggest that 10 percent of the impact of immigration on the net interquartile and interdecile earnings gaps can be attributed to the political channel. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Income Taxes, Earnings Inequality |
| JEL: | H23 H24 H71 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2435 |
| By: | John Eric Humphries; Scott T. Nelson; Dam Linh Nguyen; Winnie van Dijk; Daniel C. Waldinger |
| Abstract: | Recent research has documented the prevalence and consequences of evictions in the United States, but our understanding of the drivers of eviction and the scope for policy to reduce evictions remains limited. We use novel lease-level ledger data from high-eviction rental markets to characterize key determinants of landlord eviction decisions: the persistence of shocks to tenant default risk, landlords' information about these shocks, and landlords' costs of eviction. Our data show that nonpayment is common, is often tolerated by landlords, and is often followed by recovery, suggesting that landlords face a trade-off between initiating a costly eviction or waiting to learn whether a tenant can continue paying. We develop and estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of the eviction decision that captures this trade-off. Estimated eviction costs are on the order of 2 to 3 months of rent, and the majority of evictions involve tenants who are unlikely to pay going forward. As a result, while commonly-proposed policies can generate additional forbearance for tenants, they do not prevent most evictions. Compared to policies that create delays in the eviction process, increasing filing fees or providing short-term rent subsidies are more likely to prevent evictions of tenants who would resume paying. |
| JEL: | G51 L51 L85 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33155 |
| By: | Beata Wo\'zniak-J\k{e}chorek; S{\l}awomir Ku\'zmar; David Bole |
| Abstract: | The main goal of this paper is to assess the likelihood of office workers relocating to the suburbs due to work-from-home opportunities and the key factors influencing these preferences. Our study focuses on Poland, a country with different cultural individualism at work, which can impact work-from-home preferences and, indirectly, home relocation desires. Given the methodological limitations of official data on remote work practices in Poland, we conducted an original survey, gathering primary data from a nationally representative sample of office workers living in cities with populations exceeding 100, 000. To investigate the factors shaping employees' preferences for suburban relocation driven by remote work, we utilized logistic regression to analyze the effects of socio-economic and employment characteristics, commuting experiences, and reported changes in work productivity. Our findings reveal that age, mode of commuting, perceived changes in work productivity, and sector ownership are significant determinants, strongly affecting home relocation preferences in response to work-from-home opportunities. These results align with previous research, typically based on data from countries with different cultural frameworks and more developed work-from-home practices. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.07459 |
| By: | Michael Fritsch (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Matthias Huegel (University of Kassel); Maria Greve (University of Utrecht, Netherlands); Michael Wyrwich (University of Groningen, Netherlands and Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We describe the procedure for compiling a list of industrial monuments in the regions of Germany and the resulting data set. In addition, we provide an overview of the regional distribution of the number of industrial monuments in Germany. The data set is publicly available on the Internet. |
| Keywords: | Industrial monuments, regional culture, cultural memory |
| JEL: | C8 N9 R1 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2025-0001 |
| By: | Luca Colombo (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business); Paola Labrecciosa; Agnieszka Rusinowska (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We take a novel approach based on differential games to the study of criminal networks. We extend the static crime network game (Ballester et al., 2006, 2010) to a dynamic setting where criminal activities negatively impact the accumulation of total wealth in the economy. We derive a Markov Feedback Equilibrium and show that, unlike in the static crime network game, the vector of equilibrium crime rates is not necessarily proportional to the vector of Bonacich centralities. Next, we conduct a comparative dynamic analysis with respect to the network size, the network density, and the marginal expected punishment, finding results in contrast with those arising in the static crime network game. We also shed light on a novel issue in the network theory literature, i.e., the existence of a voracity effect. Finally, we study the problem of identifying the optimal target in the population of criminals when the planner's objective is to minimize aggregate crime at each point in time. Our analysis shows that the key player in the dynamic and the static setting may differ, and that the key player in the dynamic setting may change over time. |
| Keywords: | Differential games, Markov equilibrium, Criminal networks, Bonacich centrality, Key player |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04850675 |
| By: | Luis Lopez; Dermot Murphy; Nitzan Tzur-Ilan; Sean Wilkoff |
| Abstract: | Wildfire smoke pollution is associated with significantly higher healthcare municipal borrowing costs, amounting to $250 million in realized interest costs for high-smoke counties in 2010–2019, and an estimated $570 million over the following 10 years. These costs are disproportionately higher in high-poverty or high-minority areas where there is more smoke-related uncompensated care. Out-of-state smoke is also associated with higher borrowing costs, suggesting poor wildfire management imposes externalities on nearby states. Our hospital-level analysis shows increases in asthma cases and unprofitable emergency room visits, tighter financial constraints and reduced investment. Migration sorting exacerbates these effects by concentrating vulnerable households in high-smoke counties. |
| Keywords: | municipal bonds; wildfires; smoke; air pollution; climate finance; externalities |
| JEL: | R31 O18 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99473 |
| By: | Daniel Thiel (Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Erick Leroux (Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Emmanuel Labarbe (UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne, D2iA - Dynamiques, Interactions, Interculturalité Asiatiques - ULR - La Rochelle Université - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne, MICA - Médiation, Information, Communication, Art - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne) |
| Abstract: | In order to reduce overtourism and traffic congestion, local authorities may have to divert recreational vehicle traffic to off-site service areas. The problem that will arise is how best to accommodate different types of users with opposing preferences in the same area, some wanting to be as close as possible to the major site to be visited, others seeking peace and quiet. We have represented their specific attitudes using a two-stage decision-making process via a conjunctive model followed by a compensatory model. We then propose to model three strategies, seeking either to optimise customer attractiveness, or profit, or space occupation, in order to define a location, capacity and price for this shared area. Using a realistic data set, the results show that economic performance follows a concave curve as a function of the population mix. Moreover, only the strategy of maximising attractiveness suggests always mixing users in the same area. |
| Keywords: | overtourism recreational vehicles service areas optimisation heterogeneous preferences, overtourism, recreational vehicles, service areas, optimisation, heterogeneous preferences |
| Date: | 2023–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04811280 |
| By: | Zhiyuan Liang (Beijing Jiaotong University); Vincent A.C. van den Berg (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Vincent Erik T. Verhoef (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Vincent Yacan Wang (Beijing Jiaotong University) |
| Abstract: | This study studies nudging information as a strategy that can complement or substitute externality pricing, by influencing commuter behavior through awareness of the health and environmental impacts of their choices. We develop a bi-modal model with road and metro commuters, with bottleneck congestion on the road and dynamic crowding congestion in the metro. The model further incorporates health costs and environmental externalities, particularly for road commuters. When commuters are homogeneous, our findings indicate that nudging information generates positive welfare effects except in scenarios with extremely high crowding effects in the metro system. Moreover, nudging information can consistently complement flat road tolls by integrating information and toll schemes to enhance the system’s social welfare impact. By adding heterogeneity in environmental preferences, car types, and income, the study further highlights that the effectiveness of such strategies depends on the varied behavioral responses from diverse individuals. Even when the crowding effect is relatively small with heterogeneity, nudging information may result in negative welfare effects by causing welfare-reducing swaps in road commuters’ departure patterns; in such cases, it fails to complement flat tolls effectively. |
| Keywords: | Congestion; Emissions; Nudging information; Bi-modal; Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | D8 L91 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240081 |
| By: | Abhimanyu Gupta; Jungyoon Lee; Francesca Rossi |
| Abstract: | We propose a computationally straightforward test for the linearity of a spatial interaction function. Such functions arise commonly, either as practitioner imposed specifications or due to optimizing behaviour by agents. Our test is nonparametric, but based on the Lagrange Multiplier principle and reminiscent of the Ramsey RESET approach. This entails estimation only under the null hypothesis, which yields an easy to estimate linear spatial autoregressive model. Monte Carlo simulations show excellent size control and power. An empirical study with Finnish data illustrates the test's practical usefulness, shedding light on debates on the presence of tax competition among neighbouring municipalities. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.14778 |
| By: | Priyanka Sharma; Edward J. Oughton; Aleksan Shanoyan |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first incentive analysis of open radio access networks (ORAN) using game theory. We assess strategic interactions between telecom supply chain stakeholders: mobile network operators (MNOs), network infrastructure suppliers (NIS), and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across three procurement scenarios: (i) Traditional, (ii) Predatory as monolithic radio access networks (MRAN), and (iii) DirectOEM as ORAN. We use random forest and gradient boosting models to evaluate the optimal margins across urban, suburban, and rural U.S. regions. Results suggest that ORAN deployment consistently demonstrates higher net present value (NPV) of profits in urban and suburban regions, outperforming the traditional procurement strategy by 11% to 31%. However, rural areas present lower NPVs across all scenarios, with significant variability at the county level. This analysis offers actionable insights for telecom investment strategies, bridging technical innovation with economic outcomes and addressing strategic supply chain dynamics through a game-theoretic lens. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.18346 |
| By: | Shan Ge; Stephanie Johnson; Nitzan Tzur-Ilan |
| Abstract: | As climate change exacerbates natural disasters, homeowners’ insurance premiums are rising dramatically. We examine the impact of premium increases on borrowers’ mortgage and credit outcomes using new data on home insurance policies for 6.7 million borrowers. We find that higher premiums increase the probability of mortgage delinquency, as well as prepayment (driven mainly by relocation). The results hold using a novel instrumental variable. The delinquency effect is greater for borrowers with higher debt-to-income ratios. Both delinquency and prepayment effects are present in both GSE and non-GSE mortgages. We also find that higher premiums significantly raise the probability of credit card delinquency and worsen borrowers’ creditworthiness. Our findings unveil a channel through which climate change can threaten household financial health and potentially impact the stability of the financial system. |
| Keywords: | climate change; insurance; mortgage; delinquency; prepayment; credit cards |
| JEL: | G21 G22 G5 G52 G53 R21 Q54 D14 R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99475 |
| By: | Resul Cesur; Sadullah Yıldırım |
| Abstract: | Evolutionary accounts assert that while diversity may lower subjective well-being (SWB) by creating an evolutionary mismatch between evolved psychological tendencies and the current social environment, human societies can adapt to diversity via intergroup contact under appropriate conditions. Exploiting a novel natural experiment in history, we examine the impact of the social environment, captured by population diversity, on SWB. We find that diversity lowers cognitive and hedonic measures of SWB. Diversity-induced deteriorations in the quality of the macrosocial environment, captured by reduced social cohesion, retarded state capacity, and increased inequality in economic opportunities, emerge as mechanisms explaining our findings. The analysis of first- and second-generation immigrants in Europe and the USA reveals that the misery of home country diversity persists even after neutralizing the role of the social environment. However, these effects diminish among the second generation, suggesting that long-term improvements in the social environment can alleviate the burden of diversity. Finally, in exploring whether human societies can adapt to diversity, we show evidence that diversity causes adopting cultural traits (such as establishing stronger family ties, assigning greater importance to friendships, and adopting a positive attitude towards competition) that can mitigate the misery of diversity. These results survive an exhaustive set of robustness checks. |
| JEL: | D60 D63 I30 I31 N30 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33163 |
| By: | Anastasia Economou (European Commission - JRC); Georgios Kapsalis (European Commission - JRC); Alessandro Brolpito |
| Abstract: | The importance of the development of teachers’ digital competence for a successful digital education and training, and of their role in developing students’ digital competence has been recognised in recent European policies on digital education (DEAP 2021-2027; European Commission 2020) and on the provision of digital skills (Council Recommendation on the key enabling factors for successful digital education and training; European Commission, 2023). To support achieving these policy goals, policies also encourage Member States using self-assessment tools such as SELFIEforTEACHERS. In this context, understanding how teachers perceive their digital competence using scientific instruments can help planning meaningful professional learning and development programmes for them. The study presented in this report refers to the implementation of the SELFIEforTEACHERS self-reflection tool in two candidate countries for accession in the European Union, Albania and North Macedonia. This implementation research aims at collecting evidence on teachers’ self-perceptions about their digital competence in each country, using SELFIEforTEACHERS, to support professional development for teachers at national, regional or school level. Cross cutting findings from evidence from both countries can complement findings in similar contexts and shed light into deeper understanding of the challenges, opportunities and actions to be taken in addressing teacher needs for the development of their digital competence. Moreover, the study suggests a process that could be followed for similar purposes in other contexts. The study findings indicate the need for further development of teacher digital competence to critically incorporate digital technologies in their professional practice such as in teaching and learning, communication and collaboration, professional engagement and empowering learners. Future directions include investigating supporting mechanisms for national stakeholders and training institutions in utilising the self-reflection results to plan professional development programmes and resources, as well as promoting schools’ leadership to initiate self-reflection exercises within the school, identifying specific teacher needs and providing professional learning opportunities. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139593 |
| By: | Amy Finkelstein; Sarah Miller; Katherine Baicker |
| Abstract: | Those involved with the criminal justice system have disproportionately high rates of mental illness and substance use disorders, prompting speculation that health insurance, by improving treatment of these conditions, could reduce crime. Using the 2008 Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, which randomly made some low-income adults eligible to apply for Medicaid, we find no statistically significant impact of Medicaid coverage on criminal charges or convictions. These null effects persist for high-risk subgroups, such as those with prior criminal cases and convictions or mental health conditions. In the full sample, our confidence intervals can rule out most quasi-experimental estimates of Medicaid's crime-reducing impact. |
| JEL: | I10 I13 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33244 |
| By: | Spellerberg, Annette; Beckmann, Klaus J.; Bruck, Emilia M.; Engelke, Dirk; Hülz, Martina; Höffken, Stefan; Koch, Florian; Libbe, Jens; Memmel, Martin; Othengrafen, Frank; Reinecke, Eva Maria; Schweitzer, Eva |
| Abstract: | Der Einsatz von Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) schreitet in der Stadt- und Regionalentwicklung voran. Künstliche Intelligenz wird zunehmend in öffentlichen Verwaltungen eingesetzt, nicht zuletzt mit Chatbots wie ChatGPT, in der Verkehrssteuerung und bei Abwägungsprozessen in der formellen Landes- und Regionalplanung sowie Stadtplanung. Positive Wirkungen werden u. a. hinsichtlich der Effizienz in den Verwaltungen oder bei einer Krisenbewältigung, z. B. bei Extremwetterereignissen, erwartet. Risiken werden u. a. in Fragen der Transparenz, der Datenqualität und der Nachvollziehbarkeit der Verantwortlichkeiten für Entscheidungen gesehen. Das Positionspapier soll anregen, über Voraussetzungen für den Einsatz von KI, gesellschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen, Verantwortlichkeiten und Nutzen, aber auch über Resilienz insbesondere in öffentlichen Verwaltungen nachzudenken, die mit ihren Entscheidungen die räumliche Entwicklung prägen. Handlungsempfehlungen für die verantwortlichen Akteure in den Kommunen und in überörtlichen Planungsorganisationen runden den Beitrag ab. |
| Abstract: | The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in urban and regional development is advancing. Artificial intelligence is increasingly used by public administrations, not least in the form of chatbots such as ChatGPT, as part of traffic control management and in assessment processes in formal state and regional planning, and urban planning. Positive effects are expected, for example, in terms of administrative efficiency or in crisis management, e. g. in the event of extreme weather events. Perceived risks relate to issues of transparency, data quality and accountability for decisions. The position paper aims to encourage reflection on the requirements for the use of AI, the social framework conditions, the responsibilities and benefits, and the resilience of public administrations, whose decisions shape spatial development. The paper concludes with recommendations for action to be taken by the responsible actors in municipalities and in supra-local planning organisations. |
| Keywords: | Künstliche Intelligenz (KI), Stadt- und Regionalentwicklung, Verwaltung, Artificial intelligence (AI), urban and regional development, public administration |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:308797 |
| By: | Hwang, Sunjoo |
| Abstract: | Over the past several decades, real estate project financing (PF) has repeatedly triggered economic disturbances in Korea, with no fundamental remedies in sight until now. Project sponsors are at the heart of this issue, investing minimal equity while heavily relying on guarantees from third parties, such as construction firms, to push forward development projects entirely on debt. This financing structure is unheard of in major advanced countries. Korea needs to reform its unique PF structure by augmenting capital and reducing dependence on guarantees. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kdifoc:308155 |
| By: | Jaelyn S. Liang; Rehaan S. Mundy; Shriya Jagwayan |
| Abstract: | E-commerce is rapidly transforming economies across Africa, offering immense opportunities for economic growth, market expansion, and digital inclusion. This study investigates the effects of e-commerce on select African regions. By utilizing readiness factors, including mobile money deployment, GDP per capita, internet penetration, and digital infrastructure, the preparedness of African countries for e-commerce adoption is quantified, highlighting significant disparities. Through case studies in urban and rural areas, including Lagos, Kano, Nairobi, and the Rift Valley, the study shows e-commerce's significant effects on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), employment, and market efficiency. Urban centers demonstrated significant gains in productivity and profitability, whereas rural regions experienced slower growth due to limited internet access and infrastructural barriers. Despite these challenges, localized solutions such as mobile money systems and agricultural e-commerce platforms are bridging gaps. This study highlights the significant potential of e-commerce in Africa while emphasizing the need for targeted investments and strategies to address existing regional disparities. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.03879 |
| By: | E. Jason Baron; Joseph J. Doyle Jr.; Natalia Emanuel; Peter Hull |
| Abstract: | Black children in the U.S. are twice as likely as white children to spend time in foster care. Such racial disparities raise concerns of discrimination, but might also reflect differences in the underlying need for intervention. This paper estimates unwarranted disparities (UDs)—racial differences in placement rates for children with the same potential for future maltreatment—in national data. We use non-parametric bounds on the potential for future child maltreatment that rely on weak and transparent assumptions. Nationwide, we find that Black children are placed into foster care at higher rates than white children with identical potential to experience subsequent maltreatment; this UD is 42% larger than conventional estimates that control for observables. We demonstrate that UD varies across states and that both the proportion of Black individuals in the population and the racial makeup of caseworkers within a state are key factors in predicting the level of UD. Finally, we show that UD is five times larger among children with potential for subsequent maltreatment than among children without, and that it declined from 2008 to 2020, primarily due to a decline in the placement rate of Black children with potential for subsequent maltreatment. The concentration of UD in cases with potential for future maltreatment yields important policy implications, as it may indicate an "underplacement" of white children—with declining racial gaps over time potentially elevating the risk of maltreatment for Black children. |
| JEL: | I31 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33154 |
| By: | Dou, Liyu (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); KASTL, Jakub (Department of Economics, Princeton University, NBER and CEPR); LAZAREV, John (Stern Economics, New York University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework for quantifying delay propagation in airline networks that combines structural modeling and machine learning methods together to estimate causal objects of interest. Using a large comprehensive data set on actual delays and a model-selection algorithm (elastic net) we estimate a weighted directed graph of delay propagation for each major airline in the US and derive conditions under which the estimates of the propagation coefficients are causal. We use these estimates to decompose the airline performance into “luck” and “ability.” We find that luck may explain about 38% of the performance difference between Delta and American in our data. We further use these estimates to describe how network topology and other airline network characteristics (such as aircraft fleet heterogeneity) affect the expected delays. |
| Keywords: | Airline Networks; Shock Propagation; Elastic Net |
| JEL: | C50 L14 L93 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_014 |
| By: | Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | Peer effects, Conformity, Experimental economics, Behavioral economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04794581 |
| By: | Leonardo D'Amico; Edward L. Glaeser; Joseph Gyourko; William R. Kerr; Giacomo A.M. Ponzetto |
| Abstract: | We document a Kuznets curve for construction productivity in 20th-century America. Homes built per construction worker remained stagnant between 1900 and 1940, boomed after World War II, and then plummeted after 1970. The productivity boom from 1940 to 1970 shows that nothing makes technological progress inherently impossible in construction. What stopped it? We present a model in which local land-use controls limit the size of building projects. This constraint reduces the equilibrium size of construction companies, reducing both scale economies and incentives to invest in innovation. Our model shows that, in a competitive industry, such inefficient reductions in firm size and technology investment are a distinctive consequence of restrictive project regulation, while classic regulatory barriers to entry increase firm size. The model is consistent with an extensive series of key facts about the nature of the construction sector. The post-1970 productivity decline coincides with increases in our best proxies for land-use regulation. The size of development projects is small today and has declined over time. The size of construction firms is also quite small, especially relative to other goods-producing firms, and smaller builders are less productive. Areas with stricter land use regulation have particularly small and unproductive construction establishments. Patenting activity in construction stagnated and diverged from other sectors. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that, if half of the observed link between establishment size and productivity is causal, America’s residential construction firms would be approximately 60 percent more productive if their size distribution matched that of manufacturing. |
| JEL: | D24 E23 L7 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33188 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Sports mega-events lasting several weeks pose major logistical challenges, given the massive flow of people they generate, as demonstrated by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games. Innovative solutions implemented for the occasion, in terms of transport and the use of digital tools, helped to optimise supplies and reduce disruptions. From this viewpoint, the Paris experience could serve as a model for future improvements in urban logistics. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Mega-events, Sport, Urban logistics |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04780300 |
| By: | Alexander Bick |
| Abstract: | The number of people who recently immigrated to the U.S. varies greatly among data sources. What might an undercount in recent immigrants mean for the U.S. unemployment rate? |
| Keywords: | immigration; unemployment |
| Date: | 2025–01–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99412 |
| By: | Christopher R. Knittel; Donald MacKenzie; Michiko Namazu; Bora Ozaltun; Dan Svirsky; Stephen Zoepf |
| Abstract: | We test whether more information about customers decreases racial bias. Our setting is the market for shared mobility services. Prior work by Ge et al. (2020) found that Uber drivers are two times more likely to cancel a ride if the passenger’s name is one used predominantly by African Americans. In a randomized control trial, we test whether two alterations to the Uber platform app reduce racial discrimination. Within the standard Uber app, drivers see only the passenger’s rating before accepting a ride. Once they accept the ride, they see the name of the passenger. In the first intervention, we increased the size of the font of the rating to draw attention to the quality of the passenger. In the second intervention, the passenger’s name appears from the beginning. Using the control group observations, we confirmed that the more likely African Americans were to use a name, the more likely a driver cancels the ride. However, increasing the font size of the passenger’s rating eliminates this racial bias. In contrast, we do not find much evidence that showing the name on the initial screen reduces or increases cancellation rates. |
| JEL: | D83 J71 L92 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33118 |
| By: | Angelos Alamanos; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | Greece features a diverse landscape with significant land cover changes over recent decades, impacting sustainability components such as biodiversity, climate stability, and ecosystem services. Monitoring and mapping these changes are essential for informed land management. This research utilizes freely available satellite data (Remote Sensing) and open-source tools (QGIS and Excel sheets) to assess key metrics, including land cover change, productivity, and soil carbon storage. We also link these metrics to estimate the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15, and the indicator SDG15.3.1, considering the sustainable land use changes. The spatial synthesis of these metrics reveals areas of land improvement, stability, and degradation from 2010 to 2020, offering insights into Greece's land dynamics historically. Results highlight that most of the land remains in a stable state of "land sustainability, " but certain regions require targeted interventions to address degradation. Notably, urban expansion and intensive agriculture drive localized declines in ecosystem quality, while forest management and conservation policies contribute to stability and improvement. The methodology emphasizes transparency and replicability, with publicly available code and results tailored for Greece's unique environmental and socio-economic context. By aligning national efforts with SDG targets, this work supports policies for balancing economic growth with ecological resilience, ensuring the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing the quality of life for present and future generations in Greece. |
| Keywords: | Land cover change, Land Productivity, Soil Carbon Storage, SDG15, remote sensing, satellite imagery |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2516 |
| By: | Alexander Bick |
| Abstract: | The number of recent immigrants to the U.S. varies greatly among data sources. What might an undercount of this population mean for U.S. productivity growth? |
| Keywords: | immigration; productivity growth |
| Date: | 2025–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99415 |
| By: | Marie Kenza Bouhaddou (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Lyon] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières, CRH - Centre de Recherche sur l'Habitat - LAVUE - Laboratoire Architecture, Ville, Urbanisme, Environnement - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - ENSAPLV - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Paris-La Villette - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - ENSA PVDS - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Paris Val-de-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - MC - Ministère de la Culture); Laetitia Tuffery (CHROME - Détection, évaluation, gestion des risques CHROniques et éMErgents (CHROME) / Université de Nîmes - UNIMES - Université de Nîmes); Carmen Cantuarias- Villessuzanne (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI2R Research in Real Estate [Paris] - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières) |
| Keywords: | Agriculture urbaine, Ecoquartier, Services écosystémiques urbains, Solution fondée sur la nature. |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04811017 |
| By: | Stathis Devves; Angelos Alamanos; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | The terrestrial transportation sector, including passengers, buses, and trains, is becoming an increasingly complex field in terms of decarbonization, requiring science-driven, data-based solutions to address its energy and emissions challenges effectively. Greece exemplifies these challenges, as its transportation sector has been slow in transitioning towards decarbonization, despite the country's commitments. Factors such as dependence on conventional fuels, infrastructure inefficiencies, and policy gaps exacerbate the situation, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive modeling and assessment tools. This research presents a detailed assessment of Greece's transportation sector, focusing on energy demand and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, per use and per fuel type. Leveraging the Low-Emission-Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, we analyze the sector's fuel mix across various uses at a national scale, marking, to the best of our knowledge, the first such effort for Greece. The model is tested under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios: SSP1 (sustainability-focused), SSP2 (moderate progress), and SSP5 (fossil-fueled development), projected to 2050. Our findings reveal critical insights into how different decarbonization pathways could reshape Greece's transportation sector. The key outcomes discussed include variations in energy consumption, emission trajectories, and the feasibility of achieving national and EU decarbonization targets under diverse socio-economic conditions. This work aims to support policymakers in designing robust, forward-looking transportation strategies aligned with sustainability objectives. |
| Keywords: | Transportation Decarbonization, LEAP Modeling, Energy Demand Analysis, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Greece |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2515 |
| By: | Minseog Oh; Donggyu Kim |
| Abstract: | In financial applications, we often observe both global and local factors that are modeled by a multi-level factor model. When detecting unknown local group memberships under such a model, employing a covariance matrix as an adjacency matrix for local group memberships is inadequate due to the predominant effect of global factors. Thus, to detect a local group structure more effectively, this study introduces an inverse covariance matrix-based financial adjacency matrix (IFAM) that utilizes negative values of the inverse covariance matrix. We show that IFAM ensures that the edge density between different groups vanishes, while that within the same group remains non-vanishing. This reduces falsely detected connections and helps identify local group membership accurately. To estimate IFAM under the multi-level factor model, we introduce a factor-adjusted GLASSO estimator to address the prevalent global factor effect in the inverse covariance matrix. An empirical study using returns from international stocks across 20 financial markets demonstrates that incorporating IFAM effectively detects latent local groups, which helps improve the minimum variance portfolio allocation performance. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.05664 |
| By: | Arun G. Chandrasekhar; Vasu Chaudhary; Benjamin Golub; Matthew O. Jackson |
| Abstract: | Social and economic networks are often multiplexed, meaning that people are connected by different types of relationships -- such as borrowing goods and giving advice. We make three contributions to the study of multiplexing. First, we document empirical multiplexing patterns in Indian village data: relationships such as socializing, advising, helping, and lending are correlated but distinct, while commonly used proxies for networks based on ethnicity and geography are nearly uncorrelated with actual relationships. Second, we examine how these layers and their overlap affect information diffusion in a field experiment. The advice network is the best predictor of diffusion, but combining layers improves predictions further. Villages with greater overlap between layers (more multiplexing) experience less overall diffusion. This leads to our third contribution: developing a model and theoretical results about diffusion in multiplex networks. Multiplexing slows the spread of simple contagions, such as diseases or basic information, but can either impede or enhance the spread of complex contagions, such as new technologies, depending on their virality. Finally, we identify differences in multiplexing by gender and connectedness. These have implications for inequality in diffusion-mediated outcomes such as access to information and adherence to norms. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.11957 |
| By: | Marius Opstrup Morthorst; David J. Price; Peter Rønø Thingholm |
| Abstract: | The opioid epidemic is often associated with economic hardship. We identify their causal relationship by estimating the effect of mass layoffs on opioid use and abuse in Denmark. This paper has three main contributions. First, we find the clearest evidence that economic conditions affect opioid use: individuals increase consumption by 65%, with evidence of abuse. Second, we disentangle indirect effects: spouses consume 40% more opioids. Third, we connect opioid demand (as we study) to the more prominent literature on supply, finding evidence that effects of layoffs are stronger in areas that have a large underlying supply of opioids. |
| Keywords: | layoffs, opioids, substance abuse |
| JEL: | J63 I14 I12 |
| Date: | 2025–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-794 |