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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Kristopher Gerardi; Franklin Qian; David Hao Zhang |
| Abstract: | We use a search and matching model to study the heterogeneous welfare effects of housing market illiquidity due to mortgage lock-in over the lifecycle. We find that younger home buyers are disproportionately affected by mortgage lock-in, which disrupts their typical pattern of moving to higher-quality neighborhoods. We estimate a model with heterogeneous seller-buyers bargaining within markets defined by CBSA-income terciles and with endogenous migration across markets. We find that on average mortgage lock-in reduces household listing probabilities by 21 percent to 23 percent, increases time on the market by 52 percent to 142 percent, increases house prices by 3 percent to 8 percent, and decreases match surplus by 3 percent to 29 percent through its effects on the search and matching process. The pricing and match surplus effects are larger for younger households and for households in lower-income areas, due to a higher idiosyncratic dispersion in buyer valuation leading to larger match surplus variation in those areas. Our study highlights the welfare benefits of market thickness in real estate markets. |
| Keywords: | mortgage lock-in; moving to opportunity; housing market liquidity; idiosyncratic dispersion in house prices; FRMs |
| JEL: | G18 G21 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:99197 |
| By: | Aditya Aladangady; Jacob Krimmel; Tess C. Scharlemann |
| Abstract: | Rising interest rates in 2022 introduced large moving costs for homeowners with low, fixed-rate mortgages. Using a novel dataset linking mortgage loans, consumer credit profiles, and property sales, we examine the effects of rate hikes on household mobility and the broader economic impacts of the resulting mortgage rate lock-in. As market rates rise relative to those on borrowers’ existing loans, likelihood of moving falls with the highest elasticity among borrowers just “in the money.” Our results suggest about 44% of the decline in moves among mortgage holders between 2021 and 2022 may be attributable to the widening gap between borrower’s existing and market rates. We find limited scope for labor misallocation due to lock-in, as moves across labor market areas are rather unaffected. Instead, lock-in primarily reduces within-metro churn and moves up the housing ladder, leading to fewer real estate listings and greater house price growth. We explain lock-in-driven price increases through a housing search model: in a seller’s market, reduced churn raises market tightness, driving up prices. Consistentwith such a model, we show measures of market tightness increase in response to lock-in, with the most significant effects in markets that were already tight. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages and credit; Mobility; Housing demand; Rate lock; Housing supply |
| JEL: | G21 G51 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-88 |
| By: | Xi Lin |
| Abstract: | This study examines how childhood residential location affects cognitive skills, focusing on the roles of neighborhood and primary school quality in shaping children’s school performance. Using administrative data from the Netherlands, I estimate the causal effect of neighborhood exposure—defined as the impact of time spent in a neighborhood—on children’s test scores at the end of their primary education. By comparing children who move at different ages, I separate the effects of exposure from those of sorting into neighborhoods. The results show that for each additional year a child spends in a neighborhood with higher expected test scores, their test scores improve by approximately 2.5% relative to the total gap between the lower- and higher-performing neighborhoods. As families can choose primary schools without geographical restrictions in the Netherlands, I can further isolate improvements attributable to school quality. Approximately 40% of the observed improvements in test scores can be explained by differences in primary school quality. These findings highlight the critical roles of neighborhood environments and school quality in reducing spatial educational inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Neighborhood Effects, Mover Design, Intergenerational Mobility |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_618 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Fabian Bald; Duncan H. W. Roth; Tobias Seidel |
| Abstract: | Using a quantitative spatial model as a data-generating process, we explore how spatial frictions affect the measurement of quality of life. We find that under a canonical parameterization, mobility frictions---generated by idiosyncratic tastes and local ties---dominate trade frictions---generated by trade costs and non-tradable services---as a source of measurement error in the Rosen-Roback framework. This non-classical measurement error leads to a downward bias in estimates of the urban quality-of-life premium. Our application to Germany reveals that accounting for spatial frictions results in larger quality-of-life differences, different quality-of-life rankings, and an urban quality-of-life premium that exceeds the urban wage premium. |
| Keywords: | Housing, spatial frictions, rents, prices, productivity, quality of life, spatial equilibrium, wages |
| JEL: | J2 J3 R2 R3 R5 |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0057 |
| By: | C. GRISLAIN-LETREMY (Banque de France); J. SIXOU (INSEE); A. SOTURA (Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | During heat waves, urban heat islands (UHIs) affect city neighbourhoods in heterogeneous ways due to differences in urban form, building quality, vegetation and human activity. Some populations are particularly vulnerable, such as the elderly, young children and low-income households, who have fewer options for dealing with UHI. In this article, for the first time we measure household exposure to UHI as a function of income in the main French cities. We construct and compare finely localised data on temperature, vegetation, residential building density, height and period of construction, and socio-economic characteristics of households in nine of France's largest cities. We find that the relationship between exposure to UHI and income depends on pre-existing spatial sorting. In cities such as Paris, the French capital, where affluent and low-income households reside close to the city centre, exposure to UHI as a function of income follows a U-shaped curve. In contrast, in cities where affluent households live in wealthy suburbs, such as Lyon, France's second largest city, exposure to UHI decreases with income. We also find that vulnerable households, defined by both age and income criteria, are slightly more exposed but much less able to renovate their homes or leave the city during heatwaves. |
| Keywords: | climate change; urban heat islands; urban areas; spatial inequalities |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 R14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2024-21 |
| By: | Vanhapelto, Tuuli; Magnac, Thierry |
| Abstract: | Local housing markets differ in their liquidity, the ease of transacting. Transacting is often easier in urban rather than rural locations, for example. To rationalize these liq-uidity differences, we set up a model of housing search in the cross-section of multiple interconnected local markets. Markets vary in structural characteristics, leading some to be in higher demand than others, which in turn affects equilibrium liquidity across local markets. Taking the model to data in Finland, we find that the housing market consists of very heterogeneous segments, and especially the value of housing services and the efficiency of the meeting technology matter for the cross-sectional variation in liquid-ity. Accounting for equilibrium buyer sorting is important: characteristics like the value of housing services affect liquidity both directly but also by attracting more prospective buyers into the market. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129936 |
| By: | Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. (Humboldt University Berlin); Bald, Fabian (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder); Roth, Duncan H.W. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Seidel, Tobias (University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | Using a quantitative spatial model as a data-generating process, we explore how spatial frictions affect the measurement of quality of life. We find that under a canonical parameterization, mobility frictions - generated by idiosyncratic tastes and local ties - dominate trade frictions - generated by trade costs and non-tradable services - as a source of measurement error in the Rosen-Roback framework. This non-classical measurement error leads to a downward bias in estimates of the urban quality-of-life premium. Our application to Germany reveals that accounting for spatial frictions results in larger quality-of-life differences, different quality-of-life rankings, and an urban quality-of-life premium that exceeds the urban wage premium. |
| Keywords: | housing, spatial frictions, rents, prices, productivity, quality of life, spatial equilibrium, wages |
| JEL: | J2 J3 R2 R3 R5 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17549 |
| By: | Dr. Sumrin Kalia (School of Business and Economics, Freie University Berlin; Institute for Global Prosperity, University College London) |
| Abstract: | Inequality of income and wellbeing is not only unjust but also detrimental for social cohesion. Global and national inequalities have received considerable attention; however spatial inequalities, within cities are of equal concern. Spatial inequality reinforces social inequality because access to economic, social, and cultural capital is shaped by location. Such disparities within cities can socially destabilizing, leading to political discontent and conflict. This paper examines the extent of inequality in Karachi, Pakistan's largest metropolitan city. It goes beyond income and takes a multidimensional approach to inequality while situating it in the spatial configuration of the city. Using a unique data set that enables neighborhood-level analysis, the paper constructs an index of wellbeing based on measures of income, living environment conditions, education, employment, and asset holdings. It maps these dimensions across Karachi's neighborhoods revealing how spatial inequalities contribute to the peripheralization of certain social groups. Peripheries not only face restricted access to opportunities and resources but also experience increased social unrest. The paper contributes to our understanding of peripheralization by demonstrating how hierarchies between urban centers and peripheries sustain urban inequality. Ultimately, it underscores the importance of analyzing spatial disparities to deepen our understanding of social inequality and inform policy interventions. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aho:ibaess:wpsil6 |
| By: | Govind, Yajna (Copenhagen Business School); Melbourne, Jack (Bocconi University); Signorelli, Sara (CREST); Zink, Edith (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Does the labeling of neighborhoods affect their outcomes? Place-based policies targeting disadvantaged areas aim to improve their conditions, but the labels they impose carry consequences of their own. In this paper, we examine Denmark's Ghetto Plan which designated public housing areas with a large share of immigrant population, high crime, and high unemployment as "ghettos", with minimal additional implications. We exploit Danish administrative data, and adopt a Difference-in-Differences approach at the neighborhood and individual level. We find that the policy led to worsening average characteristics at the neighborhood level, largely due to compositional changes driven by Danish new entrants with lower income and education levels. Following individuals affected by the policy, we find significant negative effects on their income with no discernible effects on criminal behavior. We estimate that Danes are willing to accept a 3% drop in income to move out of labeled neighborhoods. In all, the Danish ghetto policy was largely ineffective, and in some aspects, even detrimental. |
| Keywords: | residential segregation, place-based policies, migration, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | J15 J18 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17573 |
| By: | Alex Ilek (Bank of Israel); Nimrod Cohen (Bank of Israel); Yaakov Chen-Zion (Bank of Israel) |
| Abstract: | We develop and calibrate a micro-founded DSGE model, tailored to the Israeli economy, based on key stylized facts about the Israeli economy. The model includes the housing market, both ownership and rental, and heterogeneous households. Macroprudential policy is represented by policy regarding the Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio, a common measure in both literature and practice. Our primary objective is to examine the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies on the housing market, especially on housing prices. Our findings suggest that contractionary monetary policy pushes home prices downward while real rent prices rise. Macroprudential policy does not undermine monetary policy’s ability to achieve its primary goals, although it introduces a slight distributional effect. Tighter macroprudential policy (lower LTV) significantly reduces debt and the ownership-to-rent ratio in the economy, but slightly increases home prices and real rent prices. This challenges the existing DSGE model literature, and we attribute this discrepancy to the absence of a rental market (and real estate investors) in those models. These insights indicate that while macroprudential tools can help manage financial stability, their effect on home prices must be carefully assessed alongside other monetary measures. |
| Keywords: | housing market, monetary policy, macroprudential policy, ownership-to-rent ratio, heterogeneous households |
| JEL: | R21 E12 E32 E52 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2024.14 |
| By: | Schukei, Harry; Rowangould, Dana |
| Abstract: | Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation poses a significant challenge in rural communities and at the edges of metropolitan areas where rural and urban populations meet, otherwise known as exurban fringe. Populations living in these areas rely more heavily on personal vehicle travel than nonrural populations do and are more likely to have trouble getting to and from important destinations. One approach to curtailing transportation GHG emissions is through land use planning, for example by directing population growth into compact, walkable communities with access to transit. However, nearly all research to date on this topic has focused on urban and suburban areas, leaving decision-makers in exurban and rural communities with little guidance for how to effectively reduce GHGs through changes to land use and development in their communities. Researchers at the University of Vermont sought to answer the question: is the relationship between travel and the built environment the same in urban and rural areas? They analyzed nationwide data from the United States Federal Highway Administration on nearly 110, 000 people and detailed information on land use and development from the United States Environmental Protection Agency Smart Location Database. They determined what aspects of the built environment in different types of locations (urban, rural, etc.) were associated with sustainable travel behaviors such as greater rates of walking and biking, less reliance on automobile travel, and fewer vehicle miles traveled or VMT, which is the number of miles driven in a car. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Built environment, travel behavior, VMT, mode choice, rural |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt85d2f9d5 |
| By: | Eric S. M. Protzer (Center for Global Development); Sarah Bui; Timothy Freeman; Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Sophia Henn (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Farah Kaddah (Harvard's Growth Lab); Lucas Lamby (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Tim O'Brien (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Alejandro Rueda-Sanz; Ricardo Villasmil (Harvard's Growth Lab) |
| Abstract: | Wyoming is a rural Mountain West state with a high Gross State Product (GSP) per capita, foremostly driven by its fossil fuel sector. The state’s longstanding strengths in resource extraction provide much of its livelihood, including both its private earnings and public finances. Its other industries are comparatively much smaller, but Wyoming would benefit from their expansion in order to smooth out resource-related shocks going forward. Importantly, Wyoming should think on a big scale when considering such opportunities. Middling, business-as-usual growth in its non-resource sectors will not fundamentally do much to insulate Wyoming’s economy against resource busts. One category of diversification opportunities to consider are those in industries tied to the natural endowments of the land. Wyoming generally does well in these sectors, but prospects of further expansion are either highly uncertain or limited in scale. Some of the most promising opportunities are in new energy and critical minerals, but these carry significant technological uncertainty and/or modest income potential. Transformative growth in agriculture is likely to be difficult because Wyoming faces hard constraints on its water consumption, and its tourism income per capita is already among the very highest of any US states. Adding value to raw materials is a commonly-discussed strategy that, in practice, does not work well in the modern economy because raw materials are often easily traded over long distances. While it is therefore vital for Wyoming to pursue economic activities related to its natural endowments, it must also look to its advanced services and manufacturing sectors. Wyoming is a severe laggard in these industries versus other states, and serious action is needed to generate the large pools of skilled labor that they need to succeed. There is widespread recognition that Wyoming is behind on this matter, and the state has made critical investments in education to bridge this gap. The missing ingredient, however, is keeping young people and families in the state. By the time people born in Wyoming reach their thirties, nearly two thirds have left – one of the highest rates in the country. Without access to this workforce, it is exceedingly difficult for the Wyoming economy to diversify. Empirically, young Wyomingites and families overwhelmingly leave the state in favor of larger cities. University of Wyoming graduates especially are attracted to large cities a few hours’ drive away from Laramie, Wyoming (where the University of Wyoming is located). These destinations include Fort Collins and Denver. Even if it wanted to, Wyoming could not wave a magic wand to create a large urban metropolis overnight, and it is therefore necessary to understand what specifically attracts young adults and families to these big cities instead of Wyoming towns so that the latter can compete better. The evidence shows that housing is a surprisingly important factor related to migration decisions on which Wyoming underperforms. Young adults fresh out of university often prefer to live in centrally-located apartments, so that they are close to jobs, restaurants, and friends. Wyoming towns, however, lack dense multi-family housing in their downtown cores as compared to other US towns with very similar overall population. This lack of dense downtown housing suitable for young people contributes to an overall housing supply deficiency, thereby driving up housing prices across the board. It also entails depressed foot traffic in downtowns, leading to fewer customers for local businesses and ultimately fewer urban amenities like restaurants versus Colorado communities – a key result given that surveyed University of Wyoming students report that restaurants are their top desired urban amenity. The main reason there is not denser housing in Wyoming downtowns is because strict regulations have illegalized them. A plethora of restrictions exist around issues like minimum lot sizes, maximum building heights, minimum parking space requirements, maximum dwellings per unit of area, and more. Studies show that Wyoming is more overregulated than other communities when it comes to restrictions on housing density. Other places successfully leave these decisions to the free market rather than government, and Wyoming could remove these restrictions to increase its supply of housing for young people at no cost. There is additionally a lack of funding for arterial infrastructure in Wyoming, such as water and sewage lines, which drives up development costs. A general lack of funding for community assets arguably also affects young peoples’ and families’ migration decisions. There is evidence that community demand for investment outstrips supply in water and transport infrastructure, and that many counties use allotted sales tax expansions (“Penny Taxes”) very frequently. One way Wyoming could direct more funding to its local communities is via an expanded grants management system; Wyoming gets less federal grant funding per person than other rural US states, and based on interviews this is tied to a lack of dedicated staff who can navigate the significant overhead associated with following and applying for grants. Overall, while Wyoming is currently a laggard on advanced service and manufacturing industries there are concrete steps it could take to compete better by retaining more of its young people. Wyoming’s Pathways to Prosperity economic development project has already enacted a number of changes to support that outcome, but more can be done. With denser downtowns and more funding for community assets, Wyoming would bolster both its economic and cultural vitality by keeping its young people and leveraging them to obtain growth in new industries. |
| Keywords: | Wyoming; Growth Diagnostics |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:233 |
| By: | van de Beek, Jan (Amsterdam School of Economics); Hartog, Joop (University of Amsterdam); Kreffer, Gerrit (Independent Researcher); Roodenburg, Hans (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | We use very detailed microdata on fiscal contributions and benefits of the entire population to calculate the discounted lifetime net contribution of the immigrant population present in The Netherlands in 2016. We differentiate by immigration motive and up to 87 source regions. Labour migrants' net contribution is positive, study, family and asylum immigrants' contributions are negative. Second generation scholastic performance scores at age 12 by social background are similar to scores for native Dutch children, highest education attained for given test scores is also similar, but incomes for given education levels are lower, and so are net contributions. The gap between net contributions of individuals with immigrant background and without immigrant background does not root in attained levels of schooling but in the benefits from schooling. Regional cultural distance to Protestant Europe is associated with large fiscal net contributions. |
| Keywords: | fiscal incidence, immigrants, cultural distance |
| JEL: | H5 J6 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17569 |
| By: | Clara Bosch Checa; Eloina Coll Aliaga; Mar Correcher Rigau; Pilar De la Torre Fornés; Nuria Guardiola Ibañez; Carlos Jiménez García; Victoria Lerma Arce; Edgar Lorenzo Saez; Raul Sancha Llamosí; Iraklis Stamos (European Commission - JRC); Carolina Perpiña Castillo; María Joaquina Porres De La Haza |
| Abstract: | This publication results from the collaboration between the Valencia City Council, Universitat Politècnica de València, and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. Focused on urban sustainability, this joint effort aims to enhance the understanding and management of urban emissions and mobility through comprehensive data analysis and innovative methodologies. Six key studies are summarized, each addressing different aspects of urban sustainability in Valencia: — Vehicle Emissions Trends: This study analyses vehicle emissions using electromagnetic loops and an origin-destination matrix, assessing the impact of pandemic-related measures and providing policy recommendations for reducing transportation-related pollution. — Mobility Emissions Methodology: Utilizing open-source geo-statistics, this research develops a methodology to measure emissions at the neighbourhood level, offering insights into which areas could benefit from shifts to active transportation or improved public transit. — Metropolitan Emissions Analysis: By analysing emissions in Valencia's metropolitan area, this study high-lights significant discrepancies between municipalities, emphasizing the need for targeted emission reduction measures in highly polluted areas. — Sustainable Mobility and Emission Reduction: This project explores strategies for promoting sustainable urban mobility, such as enhancing public transportation and encouraging active transportation modes, with the aim of reducing CO2, NOx, and PM emissions. — Air Quality and Environmental Justice: Focusing on NO2 concentrations measured by passive dosimetry, this study identifies vulnerable areas with poor air quality and provides recommendations for addressing urban environmental inequities. — 15-Minute City Accessibility: Analysing service accessibility within a 15-minute framework, this research highlights the need for equitable urban planning to improve access to services for both residents and tourists. The findings underscore the critical role of data-driven approaches and spatial analysis in addressing urban sustainability challenges. The methodologies developed provide valuable tools for policymakers to allocate resources effectively and implement evidence-based strategies for emission reduction and sustainable development. This collaborative work highlights the importance of integrating scientific research with urban planning to create healthier, more liveable cities. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138853 |
| By: | Shah, Chandra; Watt, Helen M. G.; Richardson, Paul W. |
| Abstract: | To compare 'in-field' versus 'out-of-field' teachers of Years 7-10 mathematics in Australia on key demographic and instructional dimensions, we analysed nationally representative system data collected by the OECD Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS), one of the world's largest survey of teachers and school leaders. Latest available TALIS 2018 data from teachers teaching Years 7-10 mathematics (N = 1, 120; 284 of whom taught mathematics out-of-field) showed out-of-field teachers were mostly from a STEM background qualified to teach science and/or technology, and were less commonly older or more experienced. Out-of-field teachers were more concentrated in public schools, having less principal autonomy, lower academic pressure, with greater school delinquency and violence. There were no statistically significant differences between in-field and out-of-field teachers on their non-mathematics specific motivations, values, self-efficacy, professional development needs and barriers, professional engagement or wellbeing. Specific to mathematics teaching, we compared 'in-field' versus 'out-of-field' Years 7-10 mathematics teacher reports of key instructional practices specific to a 'target' mathematics class (N = 472; 65 of whom taught mathematics out-of-field), which revealed likely negative consequences for student engagement and learning. Out-of-field teachers spent more time than in-field teachers on classroom management and disciplining students, lost more time due to student interruption, reported much disruptive noise in class, only occasionally presented tasks for which there was no obvious solution, and spent less time teaching, although they did not differ on time spent in practices related to instructional clarity. Out-of-field teachers also reported more time setting students extended projects to complete, letting students evaluate their own progress, and providing immediate feedback when observing students working on particular tasks. Targeted mathematics classes taught by out-of-field teachers had higher concentrations of low-achievers, indicating a bias in which students are assigned teachers not specialised to teach mathematics. Recommendations are advanced regarding professional development priorities for teachers teaching mathematics out-of-field. |
| Keywords: | out-of-field teaching in mathematics, teacher efficacy, instructional practice |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I24 I28 I29 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1520 |
| By: | Joseph Henrique Lewis; Renan Pereira Almeida |
| Abstract: | Understanding the macroeconomic cycle is fundamental for explaining the dynamics of real estate in each given area, as properties are assets susceptible to the influence of variables such as interest rates, liquidity, inflation, exchange rates, wages, employment, and economic growth. However, despite the solid theoretical foundation of these hypotheses, it remains uncertain which macroeconomic variables are most relevant to the dynamics of the real estate sector in each given area. Based on fiscal data obtained from the Real Estate Transfer Tax (ITBI) from 2009 to 2022, an empirical study was conducted using a VAR model (vector autoregressive model) on the relationships between the prices of vacant lots in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the third most populous agglomeration in Brazil, as well as the capital of the second most populous state, Minas Gerais, and the Brazilian macroeconomy. Considering exogenous disturbances in macroeconomic parameters, the responses of vacant lot prices over the subsequent months were analyzed. It was observed that these effects exhibited temporal variations, commonly reaching a maximum impact within one to three months. The results show that the interest rate has a significant negative effect on vacant lot prices; inflation has a maximum positive effect on vacant lot prices; economic growth has a maximum positive influence on vacant lot prices; the exchange rate (currency depreciation) has a significant maximum positive influence on vacant lot prices, being the second variable with the greatest impact on these prices; the wage mass in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte has a maximum positive effect on vacant lot prices. Based on these results, this work can provide suggestions for economic policies related to municipal fiscal issues, urban planning, and the regulation of the real estate market with a view to financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Economic cycles; Macroeconomics; real estate; Territory; urban and regional planning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2024-4dqb |
| By: | Lin, Zhuoer; Wang, Yi; Gill, Thomas M.; Chen, Xi |
| Abstract: | Disparities in cognition persist between non-Hispanic Black (hereafter, Black) and non-Hispanic White (hereafter, White) older adults, and are possibly influenced by early educational differences stemming from structural racism. However, the relationship between school racial segregation and later-life cognition remains underexplored. We examined a nationally sample of older Americans from the Health and Retirement Study. Utilizing childhood residence data and cognitive assessment data (1995-2018) for Black and White participants aged 65 and older, Black-White dissimilarity index for public elementary schools measuring school segregation, multilevel analyses revealed a significant negative association between school segregation and later-life cognitive outcomes among Black participants, but not among White participants. Potential mediators across the life course, including educational attainment, explained 58-73% of the association, yet the associations remained large and significant among Black participants for all outcomes. Given the rising trend of school segregation in the US, educational policies aimed at reducing segregation are crucial to address health inequities. Clinicians can leverage patients' early-life educational circumstances to promote screening, prevention, and management of cognitive disorders. |
| Keywords: | early-life circumstances, school segregation, quality of education, racial disparity, cognition, dementia, health equity |
| JEL: | I14 I24 I10 J14 J15 H75 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1527 |
| By: | Tumen, Semih (Amazon); Vlassopoulos, Michael (University of Southampton); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of a large-scale Turkish language training program on the academic performance, school participation, and mental well-being of Syrian refugee children in T¨urkiye. Using rich administrative data and a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that the program led to improvements in Turkish language and Math scores of refugee students, along with a significant reduction in their school absences. The language gains and associated improvements in school outcomes are more pronounced for younger refugee children with lower pre-program academic performance, which suggests that early language interventions are more effective for integration. In addition, we provide evidence that the language training program generated modest positive spillovers on native students. Finally, we identify mental health as a potential key channel through which the program enhanced educational outcomes, as alleviating language barriers improved concentration, reduced anxiety, and decreased bullying. Our findings underline the critical role of language training in improving refugee students' educational outcomes and mental well-being, and fostering social cohesion. |
| Keywords: | language, refugee integration, school outcomes, mental health |
| JEL: | I21 I31 J15 J24 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17593 |
| By: | Raheem Chaudhry; Amanda Eng |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of growing up in public housing in New York City on children’s long-run outcomes. Using linked administrative data, we exploit variation in the age children move into public housing to estimate the effects of spending an additional year of childhood in public housing on a range of economic and social outcomes in early adulthood. We find that childhood exposure to public housing improves labor market outcomes and reduces participation in federal safety net programs, particularly for children from the most disadvantaged families. Additionally, we find there is some heterogeneity in impacts across public housing developments. Developments located in neighborhoods with relatively fewer renters and higher household incomes are better for children overall. Our estimate of the marginal value of public funds suggests that for every $1 the government spends per child on public housing, children receive $1.40 in benefits, including $2.30 for children from the most disadvantaged families. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-67 |
| By: | Fajgelbaum, Pablo PhD; Gaubert, Cecile PhD; Tauzer, Matthew PhD |
| Abstract: | The California High-Speed Rail (HSR) project stands to significantly change transportation across the state, but questions remain about who will benefit most from this massive infrastructure investment. While previous analyses have focused on the aggregate economic benefits of HSR in California, we provide a more nuanced understanding of these benefits for communities across California using a spatial economic model previously developed by members of our team. This model captures the direct potential travel benefits of the HSR project (such as quicker and sometimes cheaper transportation) for commuters, business travelers, and leisure travelers. It also captures wider economic benefits such as higher wages and land values stemming from greater concentration of employment in more productive areas. We examine how these benefits would be distributed across California regions and socioeconomic and income groups. By understanding the potential disparities in the impact of the HSR project, policymakers can develop complementary policies to promote more balanced economic development across regions in the state. |
| Keywords: | Business |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5n138149 |
| By: | Omokolade Akinsomi; Babatunde Odusami |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to create a securitized real estate activity index for Africa. We collect real estate-related publicly listed stock indexes on all exchanges in Africa. Using the monthly price history of real estate stocks in 12 countries in Africa: Botswana, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Morocco, South Africa, Tunisia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We created an African Real Estate Index (market-weighted) and a regional African real estate index covering the East, North, South, and Western parts of Africa. Our findings reveal that 12 out of 54 countries have an active real estate public market, and a significant degree of real estate activity does not occur via the securitized markets in Africa, impacting liquidity constraints. This paper is essential for institutional investors interested in investing in real estate markets in Africa and financial regulatory agencies interested in expanding and creating a thriving real estate ecosystem in their respective African countries. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Financial Regulatory Agencies; Institutional Investors; Real Estate Index; securitisation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2024-4dqp |
| By: | Kroeger, Sarah (U.S. Department of the Treasury); La Mattina, Giulia (University of South Florida) |
| Abstract: | Criminal activity nuisance ordinances penalize tenants for calling emergency services in relation to certain illegal events, including domestic violence. There is a widespread concern that these policies will exert a chilling effect on the reporting of domestic violence and potentially increase the incidence and severity of domestic assaults. We exploit the sequential implementation of criminal activity nuisance ordinances by municipalities in Ohio, and estimate the direct impact of these ordinances on intimate partner homicides using a reduced form framework. We rule out an increase in intimate partner homicides following the enactment of a nuisance ordinance; in fact we estimate a negative impact. The effect is driven by a reduction in partner homicides in cities with a higher proportion of renter-occupied homes prior to the implementation of the ordinances. We do not find any evidence that the effect can be attributed to selective migration out of cities that enacted nuisance ordinances or a change in police officer reporting practices. |
| Keywords: | domestic violence, housing policy, intimate partner homicide, nuisance ordinance |
| JEL: | J12 J18 K42 R28 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17565 |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Kyle Handley; André Kurmann; Philip A. Luck |
| Abstract: | Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-65 |
| By: | Flintz, Joschka |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the effect of train station openings on residential house prices across Germany over a 12-year period to provide generalizable evidence on the valuation of access to passenger rail by households. It is based on data on about 90 train station openings between 2009 and 2020 in Germany and a Differencein-Differences model that uses three different control group variants to cover alternative assumptions about unobserved regional heterogeneity to mitigate problems arising from endogenous transport infrastructure provision. The results indicate that train station openings increase residential house prices on average by 5% (€18, 000) within a distance of up to two to three kilometers. Notably, these positive effects are observed exclusively for properties without prior access to passenger rail services, and are significantly larger in more densely populated and urban areas. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie quantifiziert die Auswirkungen von Bahnhofseröffnungen auf die Wohnimmobilienpreise in Deutschland über einen Zeitraum von 12 Jahren, um verallgemeinerbare Erkenntnisse über die Bewertung des Zugangs zum Schienenpersonenverkehr durch Haushalte zu gewinnen. Sie basiert auf Daten zu etwa 90 Bahnhofseröffnungen zwischen 2009 und 2020 in Deutschland und einem Differenz-in-Differenzen-Modell, das drei verschiedene Kontrollgruppenvarianten verwendet, um alternative Annahmen über unbeobachtete regionale Heterogenität abzudecken und Probleme, die sich aus der endogenen Bereitstellung von Verkehrsinfrastruktur ergeben, zu mildern. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Eröffnung von Bahnhöfen die Preise für Wohnimmobilien in einer Entfernung von bis zu zwei bis drei Kilometern im Durchschnitt um 5 % (18.000 €) erhöht. Bemerkenswert ist, dass diese positiven Effekte ausschließlich für Immobilien ohne vorherigen Zugang zum Schienenpersonenverkehr beobachtet werden und in dichter besiedelten und städtischen Gebieten deutlich größer sind. |
| Keywords: | Public transportation, regional passenger rail, hedonic price model, difference-in-differences, spatio-temporal analysis |
| JEL: | C23 R21 R40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:306843 |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Nilsen, Trond (Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies provide insights about local agency in regional development. While acknowledging non-local actors and drivers, these studies have not systematically discussed the link between extra-regional relations and local agency. This paper first discusses three key arguments in the literature on extra-regional relations covering context-specific dependencies, strategic coupling, and open innovation. It then proposes a theoretically informed typology linking extra-regional relations and local agency. The typology considers whether local actors can influence the extra-regional relation, and whether global actors are engaged locally. The discussion shows that the resulting four types relations enable or constrain local agency in different ways, which call for tailored regional development work to build local agency and widen regional opportunity spaces. |
| Keywords: | Local agency; regional development; extra-regional relations; multi-scalar perspectives |
| JEL: | F60 R10 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2024_019 |
| By: | Handy, Susan; Volker, Jamey |
| Abstract: | The “induced travel” effect is a net increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) across the roadway network due to an increase in roadway capacity. Adding capacity can increase the average travel speed on the roadway (at least initially), increase travel time reliability, and make driving on the roadway appear safer or feel less stressful. It might also provide access to previously inaccessible areas. All of these effects reduce the perceived “cost” of driving. And when the cost of driving goes down, the quantity of driving goes up. Accounting for induced travel in transportation planning is important from the standpoint of accurately assessing both the benefits and costs of projects that expand roadway capacity. This brief summarizes the robust empirical evidence on the magnitude of the induced travel effect and discusses the limitations of travel demand forecasting models in fully capturing the effect. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Calculators, Traffic forecasting, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0kj840w2 |
| By: | Espeland, Sierra; LanzDuret-Hernandez, Julia; Rowangould, Dana; Grajdura, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Transportation systems provide vital connections to essential destinations including jobs, healthcare services, education, and recreational opportunities. However, people living in rural communities face unique transportation challenges, including greater distances to destinations and few high quality transportation options. Barriers to mobility can lead to transportation burdens, such as high transportation costs or unmet transportation needs—whereby trips cannot be made. These transportation burdens can adversely affect well-being. Differences between rural and nonrural areas in the built environment and population characteristics are well documented and studied. However, little is known about the differences in who experiences transportation burdens in rural versus nonrural areas, the factors that drive these differences, and how to improve mobility and access in rural populations. Researchers from the University of Vermont analyzed national survey data on transportation burdens. Then, guided by a community advisory board, the researchers interviewed two groups of Vermont residents with limited or no access to a vehicle: 42 people living in small and rural communities and 14 Latin American migrant workers. The interviews focused on transportation experiences and barriers to mobility. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transport disadvantage, unmet need, rural, carless, migrant |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt26j5r1w5 |
| By: | Lu, Hongyu; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | In this study, a modeling framework for population exposure to traffic-related PM2.5 with high spatiotemporal resolution is proposed and applied to the I-575/I-75 Northwest Corridor (NWC) in Atlanta, GA, for environmental equity analysis. The analyses retrieved trip data from the Atlanta Regional Commission’s (ARC) Activity-Based Model 2020 (ABM2020), after implementing path retention algorithms (Zhao, et al., 2019) to generate individual travel paths for more than 20 million predicted vehicle trips. Emission rates for each link were retrieved from MOVES-Matrix given the ABM link speed and facility type, the ARC’s county-level fleet composition data, and regional fuel properties and I&M program parameters. High-resolution downwind concentration profiles were predicted using EPA’s AERMOD microscale dispersion model with AERMET meteorology profiles for a huge array of receptors. Trip-end locations were derived from the ABM trip data, and the on-road trajectories for each person-trip (vehicle trace data) were derived from the travel paths through network. ABM synthetic household and person data were used in demographic assessment, and linked to representative household latitude and longitude locations in the Epsilon 2019 household demographic dataset. Individual exposure to traffic-related PM2.5 in time and space (average hourly concentration) was assessed by overlaying the second-by-second person location profiles (for 24 hours) against the hourly predicted PM2.5 concentration profiles. The analyses summarize the results across 16 demographic groups and the aggregate population exposure are compared to assess potential impact differences across demographics. High-income households in the corridor were exposed to less traffic-related air pollution as they tended to live further from the freeways. The analyses did not reveal large disproportionate negative impacts on low income groups along this specific corridor, but lager disproportionate negative impacts are expected elsewhere in the metro area due to the spatial clustering of income groups along other corridors. Overall, the research demonstrates the applicability of the modeling framework and describes how the various elements (e.g., link screening, dispersion modeling, path tracing, etc.) are optimized on the supercomputing cluster. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Microscale air quality impact assessment, AERMOD, vehicle emissions, population exposure, environmental equity |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6zx778p0 |
| By: | Losacker, Sebastian (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Befort, Nicolas (NEOMA Business School); Kriesch, Lukas (Justus Liebig University Giessen); Lhuillery , Stephane (NEOMA Business School) |
| Abstract: | National governments worldwide have implemented strategies to transition towards biobased economies, primarily driven by technological progress. However, how this transition unfolds at the regional level remains under-researched. This paper aims to uncover regional trajectories towards a bioeconomy with a focus on bio-based technologies. We build on the geography of innovation literature and show that potential pathways towards regional bioeconomies are very heterogeneous, thus requiring place-based policy strategies to advance the bioeconomy and its innovations. Empirically, the paper combines two unique patent datasets to reveal how the bioeconomy patent portfolio of 617 regions from 27 OECD countries has changed from 1982 to 2014. We utilize geographical sequence analysis, a novel tool recently introduced to geographical research, and shift-share techniques to categorize and better understand the regional trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Bioeconomy; Sequence Analysis; Geography of Innovation; Sustainability Transitions |
| JEL: | O31 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2024_021 |
| By: | Antonella Bancalari (UCL-IZA); Juan Pablo Rud (University of London/IFS/IZA) |
| Abstract: | We use quasi-exogenous variation in the redistribution of natural resource tax revenues in Peru to study whether transfers to local governments can stimulate economic activity. Resource windfalls to non-extractive municipalities between 2006 and 2018 changed the size and composition of local government expenditures and had positive effects on local labor markets and household welfare. We find an increase in labor force participation, earnings, and formality in the private sector. The windfalls spur improvements in sectors that do not directly serve municipalities and especially benefit poorer rural areas, which experienced increases in household income and consumption, along with a poverty decline. |
| Keywords: | government transfers, labor markets, rural economies, general equilibrium effects, Peru |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:348 |
| By: | Diego A. Martin (Harvard's Growth Lab); Jose Ramon Morales Arilla (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Alvaro Morales |
| Abstract: | Do refugees settle in destinations that are ecologically similar to their origins? We assess the relevance of “climate matching” theories of migration for Venezuelan refugees in South America. Leveraging social media data, we build and validate the first local bilateral matrix of Venezuelan flows across the region. We measure bilateral ecological similarities in terms of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline. Performing Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood gravity models of migration, we show that Venezuelan flows are more likely between ecologically similar areas. Model predictions explain independent measurements of Venezuelans’ settlement choices at both bilateral and destination levels. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Mass migration, Climate matching, Gravity migration models, Social media |
| JEL: | F2 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:237 |
| By: | Bernardus van Doornik; Dimas Fazio; Tarun Ramadorai; Janis Skrastins |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of access to housing on fertility rates using random variation from housing credit lotteries in Brazil. We find that obtaining housing increases the average probability of having a child by 3.8% and the number of children by 3.2%. For 20-25-year-olds, the corresponding effects are 32% and 33%, with no increase in fertility for people above age 40. The lifetime fertility increase for a 20-year old is twice as large from obtaining housing immediately relative to obtaining it at age 30. The increase in fertility is stronger for households in areas with lower quality housing, greater rental expenses relative to income, and those with lower household income and lower female income share. These results suggest that alleviating housing credit and physical space constraints can significantly increase fertility. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:612 |
| By: | Sallam, Hend; Christl, Michael |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the direct average net fiscal impact (ANFI) of migration in Germany, taking into account both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits such as health and education spending. Using a status quo approach with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for 2018 and microsimulation techniques to impute both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, our results show that migrants, especially first-generation migrants, have a more favorable net fiscal impact on average compared to natives. However, we demonstrate that this result is mainly driven by the favourable age structure of migrants. When controlling for demographic differences between these groups, we show that second-generation migrants contribute very similarly to natives to the German welfare state. Nevertheless, both natives and second-generation migrants, respectively, contribute more than first-generation migrants. These differences persist even when we do not account for indirect taxes and benefits-in-kind. |
| Keywords: | immigration, net fiscal impact, public finances, tax-benefit system |
| JEL: | F22 H24 H50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1530 |
| By: | Sanglin Zhao; Jikang Cao |
| Abstract: | Based on the coupling mechanism between new infrastructure investment level and digital transformation level, a comprehensive index system is constructed. By using entropy weight method, coupling coordination evaluation model, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and standard deviation ellipse model, the coupling coordination development level of new infrastructure investment level and digital transformation level in 31 provinces and cities in China from 2014 to 2021 is calculated, and its spatial agglomeration level and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics are analyzed. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.19861 |
| By: | Fan, Huiying; Lu, Hongyu; Guin, Angshuman; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | A previous National Center for Sustainable Transportation (NCST) study examined pandemic-related changes in MARTA transit system service and ridership in Atlanta, GA, and the combined effects on energy use and per-passenger energy use (Fan, et al., 2022). For that previous study, General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) and the Automated Passenger Counter (APC) datasets were used to develop the transit network and derive distance and passenger load information within the TransitSim analytical framework. The research coupled ridership data with energy use and emission rates from MOVES-Matrix to assess how the changes in transit service and ridership affected energy use and emissions on a per passenger-mile basis. Research performed in this supplemental NCST study improved model algorithms to increase analytical efficiency and to integrate ridership demographics, so that energy use impacts could be assessed across demographic groups for use in social sustainability analysis. This report summarizes improvements that generated TransitSim 3.0 and provides a social sustainability modeling demonstration. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transit service, transit energy use, transit ridership, transit demographics, social sustainability analysis |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3171b0j4 |
| By: | Lopez-Mayan, Cristina (University of Barcelona); Montresor, Giulia (University of Verona); Nicodemo, Catia (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the school entry age policy on adolescent risk–taking behaviors. The policy mandates that children begin primary education in the year they turn six, creating relative age differences within cohorts due to a January 1st cutoff date. Using data from the Spanish School Survey on Drug Use, we analyze a comprehensive set of risky behaviors, including substance use, gambling, gaming, internet use, and sexual activity among students in the early adolescence in compulsory education. Employing an empirical strategy that compares students born in December (young–for–grade) and January (old–for–grade) while controlling for potential confounders, we find that young–for–grade students are less likely to engage in risky behaviors. Findings are consistent across various robustness checks. Further analysis shows that age differences and educational cycle effects contribute to the findings, with gender-specific patterns for boys and girls, while school type shows limited variation. Most behavioral differences diminish by late adolescence in high school. This research expands our understanding of the non-academic impacts of school entry age policies on education and adolescent development. |
| Keywords: | young–for–grade and old–for–grade students, school entry age, risky health behaviors, education policy |
| JEL: | I12 I21 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17589 |
| By: | Fajgelbaum, Pablo PhD; Gaubert, Cecile PhD; Tauzer, Matthew PhD |
| Abstract: | The California High-Speed Rail (HSR) project aims to transform transportation in the state. To understand the impact of this project as it “rolls out” across the state, we analyzed its economic benefits across each of its plannedphases, complementing official projections from the California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA). Our analysis is based on a spatial economic model of the rail system model previously developed by members of our team. This model captures the direct potential travel benefits of the HSR project, such as quicker and sometimes cheaper transportation, for commuters, business travelers, and leisure travelers. It also captures wider economic benefits such as higher wages and land values stemming from greater concentration of employment in more productive areas. |
| Keywords: | Business |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1zm5t77t |
| By: | Tomasz Gajderowicz; Maciej Jakubowski; Alec Kennedy; Christian Christrup Kjeldsen; Harry Anthony Patrinos; Rolf Strietholt |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions to education, with school closures affecting over one billion children. These closures, aimed at reducing virus transmission, resulted in significant learning losses, particularly in mathematics and science. Using data from TIMSS 2023, which assesses fourth and eighth-grade achievements across 71 education systems, this study analyzes the impact of school closure duration on learning outcomes. Mixed-effect models estimate deviations from pre-pandemic trends, adjusting for demographic factors. Results show a global average decline of 0.11 standard deviations (SD) in student achievement, with longer closures linked to more severe losses. The effects on low performers, girls, and linguistic minorities show effect sizes up to 0.22 SD. These findings highlight the lasting impact of school closures and emphasize the need for targeted recovery strategies and international cooperation to promote equitable educational outcomes post-pandemic. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.01260 |
| By: | Odae Al Aboud; Saarah Sheikh; Adam Su; Yang Xu |
| Abstract: | The Bank of Canada is using an enhanced dataset that tracks the stock of outstanding mortgages and home equity lines of credit held by federally regulated lenders. This paper highlights some of the new details in the dataset and how they impact the Bank’s understanding of the mortgage market. |
| Keywords: | Credit and credit aggregates; Financial institutions; Interest rates; Recent economic and financial developments |
| JEL: | D1 D12 D14 G2 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:25-1 |
| By: | Alexandros Kontonikas; Emmanouil Pyrgiotakis |
| Abstract: | We study the Greek residential property market during the recovery period using data from the Property Transfer Value Registry. We examine 132, 189 transactions from 2017 to 2024 and find a significant increase in both the number and value of transactions. Markedly, this increase is more profound among older properties and flats. The findings indicate potential overheating in the residential property market, as we move away from an era of relative undervaluation and head toward higher levels of transactions and prices. However, there is significant geographical heterogeneity both across the country and within the Athens area. The econometric analysis reveals a significant relationship between the market value and the objective value of properties. Finally, we find that the “My Home” government program is not associated with an increase in transaction values for homes that meet its criteria. |
| Keywords: | Greek residential property market, Property Transfer Value Registry, “My home” program, hedonic model |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:204 |
| By: | Matthew J. Lindquist (Stockholm University); Eleonora Patacchini (Cornell University); Michael Vlassopoulos (University of Southampton); Yves Zenou (Monash University) |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/56 |
| By: | Barbour, Elisa; Volker, Jamey; Kaeppelin, Francois-Xavier |
| Abstract: | This report investigates how local governments (cities and counties) are implementing California’s Senate Bill 743, adopted in 2013 to eliminate traffic delay, measured using level-of-service (LOS) standards, as a basis for analyzing and mitigating transportation-related impacts of development projects and plans as called for under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). Based on a survey of local planning directors in California, administered in Spring, 2024, the report finds that more thanfour-fifths of localities are continuing to apply LOS standards on an “off-CEQA” basis in the permitting process for individual development projects, as well as in community-level plans and policies. Most respondent localities reported that using both VMT and LOS at both the project- and plan-level has not created conflicts, indicating that they are able to align VMT and LOS. Mitigation strategies reported as effective in reducing VMT and also improving LOS include improving active travel facilities, supporting mixed-use development, and relaxing parking requirements; these strategies can be deemed “best practices” foraligning VMT and LOS objectives. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Senate Bill 743, California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) analysis and mitigation, level of service (LOS) standards, environmental review of transportation impacts of development, VMT impact standards and implementation |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2vn3k4sr |
| By: | Gajderowicz, Tomasz; Jakubowski, Maciej; Kennedy, Alec; Christrup Kjeldsen, Christian; Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Strietholt, Rolf |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions to education, with school closures affecting over one billion children. These closures, aimed at reducing virus transmission, resulted in significant learning losses, particularly in mathematics and science. Using data from TIMSS 2023, which assesses fourth and eighth-grade achievements across 71 education systems, this study analyzes the impact of school closure duration on learning outcomes. Mixed-effect models estimate deviations from pre-pandemic trends, adjusting for demographic factors. Results show a global average decline of 0.11 standard deviations (SD) in student achievement, with longer closures linked to more severe losses. The effects on low performers, girls, and linguistic minorities show effect sizes up to 0.22 SD. These findings highlight the lasting impact of school closures and emphasize the need for targeted recovery strategies and international cooperation to promote equitable educational outcomes post-pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Pandemics, human capital, returns to education, labor markets, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J17 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1543 |
| By: | Baumgartinger-Seiringer, Simon (HEC Montréal); Shearmur, Richard (McGill University); Doloreux, David (HEC Montréal); Gauthier, Amélie (HEC Montréal) |
| Abstract: | Amid growing geopolitical tensions and supply chain fragilities, many countries adopt new industrial policies aimed at reshoring strategic industries. Simultaneously, rising awareness of the link between feelings of disenfranchisement and regional development levels underscores the strategic importance of intra-national industrial location. Within this context, we propose the concept of Strategic Regional Path Development, understood as a mechanism for (supra-) national industrial capacity-building based on top-down government interventions. Testing the framework using a semiconductor innovation zone in Québec as a case study, we conclude that success depends on aligning expectations and reconciling perspectives on its purpose across policymaking levels and involved actors. |
| Keywords: | new path development; new industrial policies; geo-politics; reshoring; regional inequality; left-behind places |
| JEL: | L52 O33 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–11–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2024_020 |
| By: | Banu Demir; Beata Javorcik; Piyush Panigrahi |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how improved internet infrastructure impacts supply chains and economic activity, focusing on Türkiye. Using the expansion of fiber-optic networks and firm-to-firm transaction data, we find that better connectivity shifts input sourcing to well-connected regions and diversifies sup plier networks. We estimate a spatial equilibrium model with endogenous network formation and rational inattention and find that high-speed internet reduced information acquisition and communication costs. Enhanced connectivity increased real income by 2.2% in the median province. Our findings underscore the importance of digital infrastructure investments in fostering economic growth by improving supply chain efficiency and broadening firms’ access to suppliers. |
| Date: | 2024–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1061 |
| By: | Kangasharju, Aki |
| Abstract: | Abstract This memorandum summarises recent research findings on the effects of immigration to Finland. Analysed research papers are published mainly in 2024. The memorandum was sent as background material to the growth working group led by Risto Murto in November 2024. The memorandum consists of five perspectives: migration needs, structure, employment and income of immigrants, studies and qualifications, and macroeconomic impacts. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Economic effects, Destination country |
| JEL: | J61 D6 |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:146 |
| By: | Klein, Alexander (University of Sussex, UK, CAGE, CEPR); Matthews, Peter (University of Kent) |
| Abstract: | We construct county-to-county transport cost data set for each decade between 1820 and 1860 in the United States using time-, region-, and direction of transport specific freight rates and the historical transport networks. We document several stylized facts about the effects of canals and railways on the average county-to-county transport cost, market access, and the role of new transportation network in the shaping the direction of domestic trade. We show that by 1860, the canals and railways led to the shift of the highest market access region from the Atlantic coast and Mississippi region to the Midwest and the Great Lakes region, and their absence would have increased the transport costs by more than sixty percent in the Northeast and by almost fifty percent in the South. In addition, by 1840, canals had substantially lowered the costs of transporting goods from the Midwest to the east, making the northern route cheaper than the original route via the Mississippi River and the Atlantic coast. |
| Keywords: | transportation, canals, early railways, freight costs, market access JEL Classification: N71, N91, R40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:736 |
| By: | David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon Hanson; Maggie R. Jones; Bradley Setzler |
| Abstract: | We analyze the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors like medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery instead stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominately exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J31 J62 L6 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-78 |
| By: | Duncan, Brian (University of Colorado Denver); Trejo, Stephen J. (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Many U.S.-born descendants of Mexican immigrants do not identify as Mexican or Hispanic in response to the Hispanic origin question asked in the Census and other government surveys. Analyzing microdata from the 2000 U.S. Census and the 2001-2019 American Community Surveys, we show that the age at arrival of Mexican immigrants exerts an important influence on ethnic identification not only for these immigrants themselves but also for their U.S.-born children. Among Mexican immigrants who arrived as children, the rate of "ethnic attrition"—i.e., not self-identifying as Mexican or Hispanic—is higher for those who migrated at a younger age. Moreover, the children of these immigrants exhibit a similar pattern: greater ethnic attrition among children whose parents moved to the United States at a younger age. We unpack the relative importance of several key mechanisms—parental English proficiency, parental education, family structure, intermarriage, and geographic location—through which the age at arrival of immigrant parents influences the ethnic identification of their children. Intermarriage turns out to be the primary mechanism: Mexican immigrants who arrived at a very young age are more likely to marry non-Hispanics, and the rate of ethnic attrition is dramatically higher among children with mixed ethnic backgrounds. Prior research demonstrates that arriving at an early age hastens and furthers the integration of immigrants. We show here that this pattern also holds for ethnic identification and that the resulting differences in ethnic attrition among first-generation immigrants are transmitted to their second-generation children. |
| Keywords: | Hispanic, Mexican, immigrant integration, ethnic identification, immigrant age at arrival |
| JEL: | J15 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17579 |
| By: | Fernandez, Guzman Gonzalez-Torres; Parker, Miles; Usman, Sehrish |
| Abstract: | The projected increase in extreme climate events in the coming decades is likely to exacerbate the existing productivity and demographic challenges facing Europe. We study the dynamic, medium-run macroeconomic effects of heatwaves, droughts and floods in 1160 EU regions through the lens of a local projections, difference in difference framework. Summer heatwaves and droughts lower medium-term output, but the impact from floods depends on regional income levels. High-income regions witness reconstruction activity, less wealthy regions do not. We find evidence of population decline in affected regions as well as adaptation spending post-event, which lowers regional productivity. JEL Classification: D24, E24, J22, R11, Q54 |
| Keywords: | difference in difference, extreme climate, labour market, local projections, potential output, productivity, weather |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20243002 |
| By: | Filani, Iyanuoluwa; Butt, Ali A; Harvey, John T; Fulton, Lewis M |
| Abstract: | The goal of this study was to develop a framework and first order estimate of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the build-out and maintenance and rehabilitation of the world’s roadway infrastructure networks from 2020 to 2050. The GHG emissions from road pavement emissions, bridges, and maintenance and rehabilitation were calculated by decade based on the existing road networks and the modelling of their expansion. For comparison, the GHG emissions from vehicle manufacture and operation were estimated. Regional comparisons and sensitivity analyses were then performed. Based on one mid-range scenario, GHG emissions from new road construction account for roughly 0.1 to 4% of regional road transportation GHG emissions depending on the region; existing road maintenance accounts for 0.32 to 3%; vehicle manufacturing for 4 to 13% of regional GHG emissions; vehicle operation accounts for 82% to 93% of regional GHG emissions; and road roughness is responsible for approximately 2% of the total system impacts. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, transportation sector, global warming, global road networks, benchmark, road infrastructure |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt85s1v4pg |
| By: | Enid Slack (University of Toronto); Joan Youngman (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper begins with the basic "big picture, " focusing on the benefits the property tax offers as a tool for fiscal decentralization. We then look at property taxes "from the ground up" to determine what is needed to make the tax succeed today Ð the right tax base, workable valuation methods, the right tax rate, appropriate tax relief, and adequate responses to real-life challenges. We end with a discussion of how a well-functioning property tax can also serve other purposes besides supplying revenue for local governments -- as a value-capture instrument, as a form of wealth taxation, and as a way to reduce pressure on land transfer taxes. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2410 |
| By: | Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); López Molina, Gonzalo (Analistas Financieros Internacionales) |
| Abstract: | What is the future of international migration flows? The growing availability of bilateral international migration data has resulted in an improved understanding of the determinants of migration flows through the estimation of theory-based gravity models. However, the use of these models as a prediction tool has remained a mostly unexplored research area. This paper estimates simple gravity models of bilateral migration flows for the whole world and projects these models into the future. Our results confirm a limited role for economic factors and a large one for demographic ones, in line with the literature. As a novel contribution, we show that estimates based on net flows are substantially lower than those based on gross flows. The reason is that network effects are historically more correlated with gross than with net flows. |
| Keywords: | international migration, prediction, gravity model |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17572 |
| By: | Carl White |
| Abstract: | U.S. banks have strong fundamentals, but regulators are keeping an eye on credit quality as delinquency rates rise for certain consumer and commercial real estate loans. |
| Keywords: | banking regulators; credit quality; delinquency rates; consumer loans; commercial real estate (CRE) loans |
| Date: | 2024–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99356 |
| By: | Natalya Presman (Bank of Israel); Tanya Suhoy (Bank of Israel) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, extensive marketing of state lands began as part of government programs for affordable housing. We use data from the Israel Land Authority to examine the impact of these marketing efforts on bid prices in regular land tenders for building apartments for the open market and analyze the demand factors for land for high-density residential construction in Israel. To account for the heterogeneity of the marketed lands, we apply Koenker's quantile regression adapted to a panel with fixed effects for the tender, controlled by the lasso mechanism. The lack of bids in some tenders constitutes a source of selection bias in the parameters, similar to the phenomenon described by Heckman in the labor market. To correct this selection bias, we apply the algorithm of Arrelano & Bonhomme (2017), which is based on a copula. After correcting for the selection that neutralizes the decline in the attractiveness of regular tenders in the environment of planned large government-subsidized projects, we find that bid prices in successful regular tenders increased as the marketing of lands in regular tenders decreased. Additionally, we find that proximity to localities where land is marketed for government-subsidized projects raises the bid amounts submitted in regular tenders in localities where no land was marketed within the government programs. The intensity of these effects is stronger in the periphery. |
| Keywords: | residential land auctions, affordable housing, periphery, quantile regression, selection bias |
| JEL: | C13 C14 C21 C23 D44 R30 R31 R38 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2024.08 |
| By: | Herbst, Tobias; Plaasch, Jannick; Stammwitz, Florian |
| Abstract: | We apply the growth-at-risk model of Adrian et al. (2019) to the German commercial real estate (CRE) market. We derive a distribution for CRE price growth four quarters ahead conditional on macro-financial variables. This approach allows us to make probability statements about the downside risk to future CRE price growth, which serve as an input to financial stability analyses. We find that the conditional distribution has shifted strongly to the left since the COVID-19 pandemic, in line with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, an increase in long-term interest rates and a decline in the net initial yield, resulting in lower expected CRE price growth rates across the entire distribution. |
| Keywords: | Commercial Real Estate, Quantile Regression, Growth-at-Risk, Germany |
| JEL: | C32 E37 G01 R33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:308094 |
| By: | Williams Ohemeng; Abdul Malik Iddrisu; George Domfe; Michael Danquah |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on quantitative and qualitative analyses to examine the patterns of structural transformation, the drivers and constraints of structural transformation, and how the configuration of power within the city and its interactions with national and city political settlements affects structural transformation in Accra, Ghana. Using data from the Ghana Integrated Business and Establishment Survey, the findings show that spatial variation in establishments matters in Accra. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, Structural transformation, Political settlements, Ghana |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-74 |
| By: | Itamar Caspi (Bank of Israel); Nadav Eshel (Bank of Israel); Nimrod Segev (Bank of Israel) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of increased debt servicing costs on household consumption resulting from monetary policy tightening. It utilizes observational panel microdata on all mortgage holders in Israel and leverages quasi-exogenous variation in exposure to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) due to a regulatory shift. Our analysis indicates that when monetary policy became more restrictive, consumers with a higher ratio of ARMs experienced a more marked reduction in their consumption patterns. This effect is predominantly observed in mid- to lower-income households and those with a higher ratio of mortgage payments to total spending. These findings highlight the substantial role of the mortgage cashflow channel in monetary policy transmission, emphasizing its implications for economic stability and inequality. Keywords: Adjustable-rate Mortgages, monetary policy, cash-flow channel, household consumption, heterogeneity, Israel. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2024.13 |
| By: | Järnberg, Linda Andersson; Andrén, Daniela; Börjesson, Maria; Hultkrantz, Lars; Rutström, Eva E.; Vimefall, Elin |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes how the willingness to pay (WTP) for a risk reduction for traffic accidents varies depending on the specific traffic safety measures and whether they are framed as public or private goods. Building on previous studies, we designed and conducted a contingent valuation survey targeting a representative sample of the Swedish population, assessing WTP for eight different measures aimed at increasing the safety of vulnerable road users. Our findings reveal that while keeping the risk reduction constant, WTP is higher for well-established traffic safety measures, such as anti-slip treatments and improved lighting. Conversely, new technologies, like mobile apps and sensors, elicit lower WTP. However, respondents express a higher WTP when these technological measures are provided as a public good. These results suggest that acceptance and perceived reliability of the measures significantly influence WTP. The findings have important implications for cost-benefit analyses and evidence-based policymaking in transportation safety, particularly regarding the implementation of new technology in road safety infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | traffic safety, willingness to pay, public good, private good, infrastructure, bicyclists and pedestrians, interval regression |
| JEL: | R41 D12 H41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1538 |
| By: | Mehmood, Sultan; Naseer, Shaheen; Chen, Daniel L. |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence of teacher-to-student transmission of gender attitudes in Pakistan. We randomly show teachers a pro-women’s rights visual narrative. Treated teachers increase their and students’ support for women’s rights, unbiasedness in gender IATs, and willingness to petition parliament for greater gender equality. Students improve coordination and cooperation with the opposite gender. Effects are larger when teachers teach a gender-rights curriculum. Mathematics achievement increases for classrooms assigned to form mixed-gender study groups treated with an intense program (visual narrative and curriculum), while no significant effects appear in same-sex study groups. Gender attitudes are transmissible, and cooperation improves student outcomes |
| Keywords: | teachers; attitudes; IATs; gender; inter-gender contact |
| JEL: | I24 I28 O12 C93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129997 |
| By: | Luca Colombo (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business); Paola Labrecciosa; Agnieszka Rusinowska (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We take a novel approach based on differential games to the study of criminal networks. We extend the static crime network game (Ballester et al., 2006, 2010) to a dynamic setting where criminal activities negatively impact the accumulation of total wealth in the economy. We derive a Markov Feedback Equilibrium and show that, unlike in the static crime network game, the vector of equilibrium crime rates is not necessarily proportional to the vector of Bonacich centralities. Next, we conduct a comparative dynamic analysis with respect to the network size, the network density, and the marginal expected punishment, finding results in contrast with those arising in the static crime network game. We also shed light on a novel issue in the network theory literature, i.e., the existence of a voracity effect. Finally, we study the problem of identifying the optimal target in the population of criminals when the planner's objective is to minimize aggregate crime at each point in time. Our analysis shows that the key player in the dynamic and the static setting may differ, and that the key player in the dynamic setting may change over time. |
| Keywords: | Differential games, Markov equilibrium, Criminal networks, Bonacich centrality, Key player |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-04850675 |
| By: | Margolies, Amy; Amunga, Dorcas; Zerfu, Taddese; Ruel, Marie T.; Olney, Deanna K. |
| Abstract: | Key Messages -Undernutrition has declined over time, but stunting still affects 40 percent of rural children and 25 percent of urban children. -Micronutrient deficiencies—especially deficiencies in folate, zinc and Vitamin D—are a critical concern, particularly for urban women and girls. -Dietary quality is low in both rural and urban areas: while urban diets are moderately more diverse than rural ones, rising consumption of unhealthy foods is more of a concern than in rural areas at this time. -The cost of consuming a healthy diet in Ethiopia increased from US $2.83 to $3.72 from 2017—2022, and over half of the population is currently unable to afford a healthy diet. -Concurrent conflict and climate shocks are causing acute nutritional needs in some regions. Humanitarian food aid is key to reducing food insecurity and should be provided to households without access to land who rely on income for food purchases, such as those in urban areas. -Overweight and obesity are still uncommon among young children but are increasing rapidly among urban women. In urban areas, 20 percent of women are overweight, compared to 4 percent in rural areas. The rise in urban overweight is driven by lifestyle changes associated with urbanization and unhealthy food environments, which are associated with poor quality diets and reduced physical activity. -Overnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases are especially prevalent in Addis Ababa. -Food safety is a challenge, and evidence is lacking on how to improve vendor safety knowledge and practices to protect consumer health. -National social protection programs often fail to reach the urban poor and lack explicit nutrition interventions in urban areas. -There is a need to design and test urban nutrition interventions that address both over and undernutrition (such as double-duty actions) in urban populations. |
| Keywords: | nutrition; stunting; children; micronutrient deficiencies; diet; rural urban relations; food safety; Eastern Africa; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:159790 |
| By: | Möhlmann, Axel; Vogel, Edgar |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically analyses the effect of unemployment on mortgage loan late payments using German household panel data. Regressions with individual fixed effects suggest that for each person who becomes unemployed, the probability of missing a mortgage payment increases by two percentage points. The effect intensifies with the length of unemployment. When examining the interaction between mortgage late payments and households' debt service, we find that higher borrower-based risk amplifies the effect of unemployment. Crucially, the effect is non-linear. The odds of individuals who have lost their jobs making a late mortgage payment increases disproportionately for those with a debt service ratio of 30% to 40% of their income. This implies that capping debt service to income ratios can reduce the risk of mortgage defaults and buffer against labour market shocks, which is relevant for financial stability analysis and macroprudential regulation. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage loans, default, unemployment, DSTI, macroprudential policy, financial stability |
| JEL: | D14 G28 G21 G33 G51 J63 L85 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:308093 |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study examines the relationship between immigration and firmlevel innovation in the Finnish manufacturing sector. The analysis leverages unique matched data, including employees’ immigration status, firm-level patenting, process and product innovation activities, and innovation inputs spanning the 2000–2018 period. To address the potential endogeneity of a firm’s immigrant employment, an instrumental variables approach is employed using the historical geographic distribution of immigrants in the region where the firm is located. The results reveal that an increase in immigrant employment positively influences process and product innovation, and skilled foreign knowledge boosts the number of patent applications. Additionally, immigration leads to reduced external R&D expenditures, indicating that immigrant workers may substitute outsourced innovation inputs. The study also finds no evidence that immigration adversely affects native workers’ employment in Finnish firms. By contrast, it may benefit natives with complementary skills. |
| Keywords: | Firm-level, Immigration, Innovation |
| JEL: | D22 F22 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:124 |
| By: | Margolies, Amy; Pather, Kamara; Namara, Rebecca; Sehgal, Mrignyani; San Valentin, Carleneth; Olney, Deanna |
| Abstract: | Child stunting is a persistent problem in the Philippines. While stunting prevalence is higher in rural than in urban areas, it still affects one in four children under the age of five in urban areas and coexists with rising overweight in school-age children, adolescents, and adults. Some urban nutrition interventions have focused on reducing diet-related noncommunicable disease (NCD) risks, but they have not addressed the challenges of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) (e.g., the coexistence of problems of undernutrition and overnutrition) in school-age children and adolescents. Likewise, the lack of evidence on interventions in the urban food environment (FE) signals a need for studies to better understand the role of FEs in driving unhealthy dietary changes and the DBM and to test approaches to shift consumption patterns toward healthier diets and lifestyles. NCDs are the leading cause of mortality in the Philippines, and NCD risks are higher in urban areas than rural ones. National policies support nutrition with multisectoral approaches, particularly through urban farming and gardening to promote healthy and affordable urban diets. Yet the urban-specific programs must be evaluated. Evaluations of urban agricultural initiatives are needed to document any impact on diets and nutrition and to assess the potential for scale up, especially given land scarcity in dense urban areas. Additionally, multisectoral double-duty actions must be developed to address all forms of malnutrition. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; child stunting; diet; nutrition; malnutrition; urban areas; Asia; South-eastern Asia; Philippines |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:159838 |
| By: | Tomohiro Hirano (Royal Holloway, University of London); Alexis Akira Toda (Emory University) |
| Abstract: | Historical trends suggest the decline in the importance of land as a production factor, as evidenced by the decline in the employment and GDP shares of land-intensive industries. However, land continues to be a prominent store of value, as over half of household wealth in major countries is real estate. To explain this apparent disconnection between land output and land value, in a plausible economic model with land and aggregate risk, we theoretically study the long-run behavior of land prices and identify economic conditions under which land becomes overvalued relative to the fundamentals defined by the present value of land rents. Unbalanced growth together with the elasticity of substitution between production factors plays a critical role. We establish the Land Overvaluation Theorem: when the elasticity of substitution between land and non-land factors exceeds 1 (which is natural because we can create more space by constructing taller buildings with fixed land) and technological progress is faster in nonland sectors, land overvaluation necessarily emerges. As applications of the Theorem, we present three examples. (i) Land overvaluation emerges along the long-run transition from the Malthusian agricultural economy to the modern knowledge- and service-based economy. (ii) With aggregate uncertainty, land prices exhibit recurrent stochastic fluctuations around the trend, with expansions and contractions in the size of land overvaluation. (iii) In modern economies, land use is also changing and urban land has high value. We present a model of urban land prices and show that land overvaluation emerges in the process of urban formation characterized by unbalanced growth. |
| Keywords: | aggregate uncertainty, bubble, elasticity of substitution, land price, unbalanced growth |
| JEL: | D53 G12 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2442 |
| By: | David Escamilla-Guerrero; Miko Lepistö; Chris Minns |
| Abstract: | This paper uses newly digitized Canada-Vermont border crossing records from the early twentieth century to document substantial differences in how female and male migrants sorted across US desti nation counties by earnings potential. Income maximization largely explains sorting patterns among men. For single women, gender-based labor market constraints were important, with locations offering more work opportunities attracting women with higher earnings capacity. Among married women, destination choices were much less influenced by labor market characteristics. These findings reveal how labor market constraints based on gender and marriage influence the allocation of migrant talent across destinations. |
| Date: | 2025–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_214 |
| By: | Glenn Magerman (ULB, CEPR and CESIfo); Alberto Palazzolo (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium and ULB) |
| Abstract: | After decades of globalization, many countries are now considering various measures to reduce their dependence on third countries and to incentivize domestic production. This paper analyzes a policy toolbox encompassing trade, industrial, and public policies and their effects on the EU and its geographical regions. We develop a multi-sector, multi-region general equilibrium framework with imperfect competition, input-output linkages, and external economies of scale. Regional and supranational governments set policies and raise taxes and provide subsidies to fund these. We calibrate our framework using detailed data on 235 EU NUTS2 regions and 25 Rest of the World aggregates, with 55 sectors and input-output linkages both within and across regions. Our results show that raising trade barriers reduces EU welfare, with substantial variation across regions. Industrial policy generates positive welfare effects. Public policy results are ambiguous. Across all policies, input-output linkages significantly amplify positive and negative welfare changes, dominating other channels such as classical gains from trade or economies of scale channels. Even common policies, like trade policy, can generate significant winners and losers across regions within the same country. Moreover, the same region can gain under one policy but lose under another. These results highlight that one policy objective can be implemented through multiple instruments, generating positive or negative aggregate welfare effects under each instrument, while obfuscating massive heterogeneity in regional outcomes, even within countries. |
| Keywords: | Deglobalization, Regional Inequalities, Trade policy, Industrial Policy, Public Policy, Supply Chains, General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | F10 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202410-464 |
| By: | Adjisse, Sossou; Blimpo, Moussa P.; Castañeda Dower, Paul |
| Abstract: | Balán et al. (2022) evaluate the impact of "local elites" involvement in local tax collection in a large city in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Using a randomized controlled trial to vary the identities of tax collectors, they find that local elites' involvement raises tax compliance and total revenue by 50 and 44 percent, respectively. The paper argues that the primary mechanism behind the results is better targeting made possible by local elites' superior information about property holders' willingness and ability to pay. In this replication comment, we first reproduce the paper's main results. Then, we assess the robustness of the results by (1) employing randomization inference for statistical tests; (2) controlling for baseline characteristics that are not balanced; and (3) using an alternative method to examine the claims supporting the preferred mechanism of better targeting. We find robust estimates in (1). However, the results are less robust both in terms of statistical significance and magnitude for (2) and (3). We conclude that the average treatment effect is robust, while the main claim about mechanisms, the information channel, is less robust to alternative estimation approaches. We contextualize and discuss the significance of these results, including the negligible revenue potential even under full compliance. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:191 |
| By: | Abiodun O. Folawewo |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between urbanization and structural transformation in Lagos. Specifically, the study focuses on spatial distribution of economic activities, and the patterns and drivers of, as well as constraints to, structural transformation in the city of Lagos from a political settlement perspective. Both quantitative and qualitative analytical techniques are applied to data derived from primary and secondary sources. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Productivity, Urbanization, Structural transformation, Nigeria |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-69 |
| By: | Zhang, Michael; Musabbir, Sarder Rafee |
| Abstract: | Highway speed limits are increasing across the United States. There is also a national trend toward uniform speed limits, within states, for both passenger vehicles and trucks. California is one of only seven remaining states that sets different speed limits, with lower speed limits for trucks than passenger vehicles. While higher speed limits provide operational benefits by shortening travel times and fostering economic benefits—especially for the trucking and logistics industries—they can also increase the likelihood and severity of crashes since higher vehicle speeds require longer stopping distances and generate more energy during a collision. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4zv3p5x6 |
| By: | Handy, Susan; Kim, Keuntae; Byrd, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The goal of this project was to assess the capabilities of the travel demand forecasting models (TDMs) used by California’s metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) with respect to forecasting the increase in vehicle miles of travel induced by highway capacity expansion. An expert panel assisted with the development of review questions to be used in assessing the models. These questions were used to assess each of the models currently used by the eighteen MPOs in California based on information found in readily available documents. The assessment found that seven MPOs are using activity-basedmodels, nine are using four-step, trip-based models, and two are using hybrid models. In general, the activity-based models do a better job of capturing possible induced travel effects. Only one model includes explicit feedback between the transportation system and land use patterns. The readily-available documentation of travel demand forecasting models in California is insufficient for fully understanding the variables included in each model component and the structure of feedbacks between components of the models. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Travel demand forecasting, travel demand models, induced travel |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0wc735mj |
| By: | Odae Al Aboud; Saarah Sheikh; Adam Su; Yang Xu |
| Abstract: | The Bank of Canada is using an enhanced dataset that tracks the stock of outstanding mortgages and home equity lines of credit held by federally regulated lenders. This paper highlights some of the new details in the dataset and how they impact the Bank’s understanding of the mortgage market. |
| Keywords: | Crédit et agrégats du crédit; Évolution économique et financière récente; Institutions financières; Taux d'intérêt |
| JEL: | D1 D12 D14 G2 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:25-1fr |
| By: | Ana Herrero-Alcalde (UNED, Spain); Santiago Lago-Penas (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of multilevel governance in managing extreme shocks such as economic crises, natural disasters, and pandemicsÑassessing the strengths and limitations of decentralization. Drawing on fiscal federalism literature, it highlights how decentralization can enhance policy innovation, tailor responses to local needs, and mitigate the risks of nationwide policy failures. However, it also identifies challenges, including inter-jurisdictional inequalities, externalities, and economies of scale, which may necessitate centralization. Using case studies from recent global crises, the paper examines the effectiveness of governance models, emphasizing the importance of well-designed intergovernmental frameworks and cooperative mechanisms. The findings suggest that while decentralization enables localized responsiveness, centralization is critical for addressing spillovers, mobilizing resources, and ensuring coordinated action in large-scale crises, offering insights into the resilience of multilevel systems amid growing global uncertainties. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2407 |