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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Sjögren, Anna (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Sundberg, Anton (Uppsala univeristy and IFAU); Getik, Demid (Durham University) |
| Abstract: | We examine how exposure to recent migrants affects the academic performance of Swedish students. To identify the effect, we exploit variation in exposure to recent migrants between grades in a given school and year, between siblings and over time for the same individuals. We find a positive effect on native students in schools with high levels of exposure and in rural areas. At the same time, the effect is negative in large cities. Analyses of mechanisms suggest that school responses to reduce class size play a role in generating net positive effects of migrant exposure. Findings are similar when considering the more acute exposure of the 2015-2016 refugee crisis. |
| Keywords: | schooling; peers; migration |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_022 |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University, NBER and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent quantitative urban models. These models are sufficiently rich to capture observed features of the data, such as many asymmetric locations and a rich geography of the transport network. Yet these models remain sufficiently tractable as to permit an analytical characterization of their theoretical properties. With only a small number of structural parameters (elasticities) to be estimated, they lend themselves to transparent identification. As they rationalize the observed spatial distribution of economic activity within cities, they can be used to undertake counterfactuals for the impact of empirically-realistic public-policy interventions on this observed distribution. Empirical applications include estimating the strength of agglomeration economies and evaluating the impact of transport infrastructure improvements (e.g., railroads, roads, Rapid Bus Transit Systems), zoning and land use regulations, place-based policies, and new technologies such as remote working. |
| Keywords: | cities, commuting, transportation, urban economics |
| JEL: | R32 R41 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:340 |
| By: | Diego Mayorga; Karla Neri Hernández; Jorge Pérez Pérez |
| Abstract: | We estimate the slope of the housing price gradient -the relationship between prices and distance to the center or employment density- in Mexico City, using administrative and survey data on housing prices in from 2019 to 2022. Our estimates rule out statistically significant changes in the slope of the housing price gradient after 2020 Q1 with respect to the pre-pandemic period. The Mexico City case contrasts with developed-country cities, where the housing price gradient flattened during the COVID-19 pandemic, with housing price increases in the suburbs relative to central areas. Possible mechanisms behind the lack of gradient change in Mexico city could include differences in pandemic restrictions relative to other countries, a reduced potential for remote work, lack of access to finance housing purchases, and housing supply shocks. |
| Keywords: | Housing prices;Housing price gradients;COVID-19 |
| JEL: | R23 R51 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-18 |
| By: | Kevin Bloodworth II; Victoria Gregory |
| Abstract: | Where are America’s homes being built? This analysis looks at 2023 housing permits per capita in the country’s metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. |
| Keywords: | housing; residential buildings; building permits |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99186 |
| By: | Dovbischuk, Tetiana |
| Abstract: | As urbanization progresses, urban stress has become an increasingly prominent concern, diminishing city residents' well-being and overall quality of life. Responding to these challenges, nature-based solutions involving urban greenery have emerged as potential stress mitigators, providing respite from the demands of urban life. This paper examines the role of urban green spaces as compensatory strategies for common urban stressors, such as traffic noise annoyance at home, home overcrowding, and the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, in city dwellers' decision-making processes for residential relocations. The data for the analysis are drawn from a primary survey in two German cities, Cologne and Hamburg, encompassing 1, 846 randomly selected respondents. The findings suggest that, particularly in the initial stages of considering relocation, individuals use urban green spaces to compensate for stressful urban living conditions. These green space compensation strategies may prevent individuals from progressing to subsequent stages of relocation decision-making. Recognizing the importance of urban green spaces in mitigating urban stress not only enhances the wellbeing of city dwellers but also improves understanding of effective strategies for planning resilient cities. |
| Keywords: | urban green, green spaces, cities, residential relocations, well-being, urban stressors, traffic noise, COVID-19, overcrowding |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:307612 |
| By: | Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Growth poles remain a central idea in regional analysis, emphasizing how a leading industry in a region can generate either positive or negative spillover effects that shape the entire socioeconomic fabric. While the growth poles theory offers a structured approach to spatial development, its comparative evaluation with other spatial theories (such as clusters and business ecosystems) reveals nuances that influence regional growth differently. This approach typically views the socioeconomic system in regional terms, with a preference for top-down planning, aiming to reduce disparities between regions. One of its pivotal analytical strengths is its recognition of the structural importance of industrial concentration, which can elevate developmental outcomes on both national and international scales. |
| Keywords: | Growth poles; Economic Geography; Geography of Industrialization; Industrial Districts; Space; Spatial Inequality; Urban and Regional Planning |
| JEL: | C21 O14 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2024_006 |
| By: | Campbell, Romaine A. (Cornell University); Gershenson, Seth (American University); Lindsay, Constance A. (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill); Papageorge, Nicholas W. (Johns Hopkins University); Rendon, Jessica H. (American University) |
| Abstract: | Workers learn on the job from both repetition and peers. Less understood is how specific types of experience and peer characteristics affect on-the-job learning. This likely differs by context (e.g., occupation, tasks, or roles). Absent such knowledge, it is unclear how to optimally assign workers to tasks and peers. We examine on-the-job learning among elementary school teachers. We focus on white teachers' productivity teaching Black students. We examine specific types of experience and specific types of peers that could lead to rapid productivity gains for white teachers: experience teaching Black students and having Black colleagues. Both lead to significant productivity gains over and above those associated with total teaching experience and access to generally productive peers. This is due to learning, as peer effects are persistent and driven by more effective Black peers. These findings offer insights to improving Black students' educational outcomes when facing a disproportionately white teaching force. More generally, they underscore the importance of understanding whether and how nuanced types of experiences and peers enter the production function and drive on-the-job human capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, knowledge spillovers, teacher effectiveness, teacher diversity, achievement gaps, education production function, learning-by-doing, human capital |
| JEL: | I2 J24 D2 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17576 |
| By: | Benjamin Hansen; Kyutaro Matsuzawa; Joseph J. Sabia |
| Abstract: | While investments in schooling generate large private and external returns, negative peer interactions in school may generate substantial social costs. Using data from four national sources (Uniform Crime Reports, National Incident-Based Reporting System, National Crime Victimization Survey, National Electronic Injury Surveillance System) and a variety of identification strategies, this study comprehensively explores the effect of in-person schooling on contemporaneous juvenile violence. Using a proxy for in-person schooling generated from anonymized smartphone data and leveraging county-level variation in school calendars — including unique, large, localized changes to in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic — we find that in-person schooling is associated with a 28 percent increase in juvenile violent crime. A null finding for young adults is consistent with a causal interpretation of this result. The effects are largest in larger schools and in jurisdictions with weaker anti-bullying policies, consistent with both concentration effects and a peer quality channel. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that relative to closed K-12 schools, in-person schooling generates $233 million in monthly violent crime costs. |
| JEL: | I2 I24 K41 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33317 |
| By: | Cai, Liang; Song, Guangwen; Zhang, Yanji |
| Abstract: | Objectives Although the social disorganization tradition emphasizes the role of neighborhood context in shaping delinquent behaviors and neighborhood crime, researchers have rarely considered the influence of neighborhood context on criminals’ decision of where to offend. This study explicitly examines how concentrated disadvantage in both the origin and destination neighborhoods structures burglars’ preference for street physical disorder and spatial familiarity. Methods We measure observed and perceived physical disorder from 107, 858 street view images using computer vision algorithms. Geo-referenced mobile phone flows between 1, 642 census units are used to approximate offenders’ potential spatial knowledge about target neighborhoods. Discrete choice models are estimated separately for burglars from disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged neighborhoods (N=1, 972). Results While burglars residing in non-disadvantaged neighborhoods are not sensitive to physical disorder in non-disadvantaged target neighborhoods, they strongly avoid disadvantaged neighborhoods with disorder. Conversely, residents of neighborhoods with concentrated disadvantage swiftly act upon street disorder in better-off neighborhoods but not in disadvantaged neighborhoods. These tendencies to react to the presence of physical disorder on the street are also contingent on burglars’ potential familiarity with the target environment. Conclusions We highlight the importance of larger neighborhood structural characteristics and their interactions with spatial knowledge and environmental conditions such as visual signs of disorder, in criminal decision making. Physical disorder is not uniformly indicative of decay across neighborhoods and offenders. This divergent decision-making may also partially explain spatial heterogeneity of crime. Moreover, spatial knowledge is most effective in triggering or deterring actions in places that are categorically different from offenders’ residential spaces. |
| Date: | 2024–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rcny3 |
| By: | Liu, Diyi; Fan, Huiying; Guin, Angshuman; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | Given that morning peak period vehicle occupancy rates are generally 1.1 to 1.2 persons per vehicle in urban areas, transportation planners have long argued that effective carpooling strategies could significantly reduce traffic congestion and the carbon footprint of commuters. Community-based carpooling, which is designed to match drivers and passengers that reside within subregions and that are traveling to similar destination zones, can be exploited once technology, communication, demographic, and economic barriers are overcome. While community-based carpool has the potential to provide sustainability benefits, integration into transportation plans and models is not prevalent, due to the lack of appropriate analytical tools. CarpoolSim is a new scalable analytical framework designed evaluate the potential performance and impact of intelligent carpooling system (ICS) for regional networks. Designed to be directly integrated into the travel demand modeling process, CarpoolSim uses a two-stage approach: 1) a filtering step with a set of comprehensive filtering conditions, to eliminate unreasonable carpool matches, given spatiotemporal constraints; and 2) an optimization step, to match as many carpools as possible (and eliminate any remaining assignment conflicts). Experiments using trip-level outputs from the Atlanta Regional Commission’s activity-based travel demand model (ABM) show that, under conservative carpool matching constraints, about 24.1% of candidate single occupancy home-to-work commute trips to major employment centers along the I-85 corridor in Atlanta, GA could be carpooled by direct carpool. More than 19.2% of the same candidate commute trips could be carpooled via park-and-ride. Sensitivity analyses were applied. Among all of the control parameters, the minimum ratio between shared trip and individual trips travel time has the greatest impact on results. Although only 26, 029 trips are selected for carpool matching (less than 0.5% of total daily trips originating near I-85), the experiments show that the potential for intelligent carpooling systems to manage commute trips to major employment center is reasonable, considering the spatiotemporal travel constraints of these travelers. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Carpooling, Ridesharing, Dynamic Carpool Matching, On-demand Carpools, Route Assignment, Carpool Planning |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0gt458qt |
| By: | Daniel Hartley; Jonathan D. Rose; Becky Schneirov |
| Abstract: | We characterize the dynamics of neighborhood racial composition by using the k-medians machine learning technique to group neighborhoods into five different patterns according to the evolution of the Black population share of census tracts from 1950 through 1990. The procedure classifies tracts into groups that: always have a high Black population share, always have a low Black population share, have a steep increase in the Black population share from 1950-1960, or 1960-1970, and those that have a gradual increase in the Black population share from 1950-1990. We calculate the growth in median rents and home values in each to the five groups and find that those with steep increases in the Black population share show the smallest increases in home values and rent implying that Black households that bought homes in these neighborhoods in 1950 or 1960 were likely to have lost money or barely broken even by 1990. |
| Keywords: | blockbusting; neighborhood dynamics; Housing prices; cluster analysis; wealth-gap |
| JEL: | C38 N22 N92 G21 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:99309 |
| By: | Ludwig, Alexander; Mankart, Jochen; Quintana, Jorge; Wiederholt, Mirko |
| Abstract: | Expectations are central for housing decisions and heterogeneity in expectations is a robust feature of survey data. We study the implications of heterogeneity in house price growth expectations for the level of house prices. We feed the joint empirical distributions of income, wealth and expectations into a calibrated heterogeneous agents housing model. We find that eliminating heterogeneity in house price growth expectations would raise average house prices and amplify house price fluctuations thereby reducing the fit of the model. Without heterogeneity, average house prices would be about 11 percent higher and the boom-bust cycle would be about 41 percent larger. |
| Keywords: | Housing, survey expectations, house price cycles, life-cycle model |
| JEL: | D14 D84 D31 E21 E30 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:306360 |
| By: | Angela Dalmonte; Tommaso Frattini; Sofia Giorgini |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the overeducation of tertiary-educated migrants in European labour markets. Using data from the European Labour Force Survey (2012-2022), we show that immigrants, particularly those from non-EU countries, are significantly more likely to be overeducated than natives. Despite a general decline in overeducation levels for all groups over time, the immigrant-native gap remains, especially for foreign-educated migrants. Furthermore, the likelihood of overeducation for foreign-educated migrants increases until 15-19 years after migration, a pattern consistent across all areas of origin and migration cohorts. Importantly, differences in educational quality between origin and destination countries do not primarily account for these overeducation differentials. The findings underscore the need for policies that better align immigrants' skills with labour market demands in Europe to avoid the waste of valuable immigrants' skills, which are harmful not only to migrants but to the economies of receiving countries too. |
| Keywords: | EU labour markets, immigration, Skill mismatch |
| JEL: | J15 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:496 |
| By: | Maximiliano Dvorkin; Cassandra Marks |
| Abstract: | Because of local variations in inflation and nominal wage growth, regional real wage gains can differ, according to an analysis of the largest U.S. cities. |
| Keywords: | inflation; nominal wages; real wages |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99191 |
| By: | Colagrossi, Marco (European Commission); Deiana, Claudio (University of Cagliari and CRENoS); Geraci, Andrea (University of Pavia); Giua, Ludovica (University of Cagliari and CRENoS); Mazzarella, Gianluca (University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | We study immigrant assimilation in terms of earnings dynamics and patterns of intergenerational transmission in permanent earnings by immigrant generation and neighborhood segregation levels. We estimate comparable sibling correlations across native and immigrant groups, but these seem to be explained by different factors. As immigrants assimilate, their intergenerational transmission mechanisms also become similar to natives. However, less assimilated immigrants experience weaker earnings transmission, a higher persistence of neighborhood effects, and a slower assimilation trajectory. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant assimilation, Sibling correlation, Intergenerational transmission, Segregation |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202404 |
| By: | Kohl, Sebastian; Steinhardt, Max Friedrich; Stella, Luca; Voss, Simon |
| Abstract: | This study explores the factors influencing household overcrowding using longitudinal survey data from Germany spanning the years 1985 to 2022. As average square meters per capita have declined for urban tenants, we find that overcrowding rates have substantially increased since 2012: By 2022, 11% of the population lived in overcrowded housing (Eurostat definition), while up to 19% of individuals subjectively felt overcrowded. At the same time, under-occupation also rose, with 39% of dwellings objectively classified as under-occupied, and 16% of residents subjectively perceiving their homes as under-occupied. We demonstrate that the likelihood of entering, experiencing, and remaining in overcrowded housing increases in early adulthood and decreases over the life cycle. Moreover, we find that, after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics such as the number of children or a migration background, economic factors contribute relatively little to explaining the likelihood of living in an overcrowded household. In policy terms, our paper highlights a misallocation of housing space and the need for housing policies to target particular vulnerable groups at high risk of overcrowding. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability, Living space, Inequality, Germany, Overcrowding, Well-being |
| JEL: | D31 I32 J13 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:306845 |
| By: | Sara Giunti; Andrea Guariso; Mariapia Mendola; Irene Solmone |
| Abstract: | Global demographic shifts have increased population diversity in advanced economies, often leading to anti-immigrant attitudes and discrimination fueled by prejudice and stereotypes. In this paper, we study a short educational program for high-school students aimed at promoting cultural diversity and improving attitudes toward immigration through active learning. To identify the impact of the program, we designed a randomized controlled trial involving 4, 500 students from 252 classes across 40 schools in northern Italy. The program led to more positive attitudes and behaviors toward immigrants, especially in more mixed classes. In terms of mechanisms, the intervention reduced students' misperception and changed their perceived norms toward immigration, while it had no impact on implicit bias, empathy, or social contacts. Our findings suggest that anti-immigrant attitudes are primarily driven by sociotropic concerns rather than individual inter-group experience, and that educational programs fostering critical thinking and group discussion in an issue-salient context can correct them. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic Stereotypes, Social Inclusion Policy, Impact Evaluation, Immigration attitudes |
| JEL: | F22 J15 F68 H53 |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:499 |
| By: | Mario F. Carillo (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), IPEG & CSEF.); Lavinia Piemontese (Bocconi University, Unit CLEAN, BAFFI.); Francesco Flaviano Russo (Università Federico II di Napoli & CSEF) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of migrant integration policies on local wealth, focusing on implementation timing. Leveraging a unique policy measure that converted centers providing temporary reception for refugees into centers aimed at integrating them in the hosting society, we conduct an event study analysis. Our findings reveal that the timing of integration policy is important: implementation during heightened public attention to immigration negatively impacts local wealth. By contrast, Integration interventions implemented during periods of low attention have no impact on wealth. Our findings highlight that the backlash effect of integration policy estimated in the literature might be largely explained by extreme public perceptions of the migration crisis. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Attention, Real Estate Prices, Reception, Integration |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2405 |
| By: | Donovan Stuart (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Matthew Maltman (e61 Institute) |
| Abstract: | In 2016, the city of Auckland adopted zoning reforms that enabled more housing on approximately three-quarters of its urban land. Three subsequent studies have found that these reforms increased housing supply and reduced rents. Two economists have, however, criticised these studies on blogs and social media, describing their findings as a "myth". Despite their informal nature, these critiques have been cited in formal planning and policy processes. Here, we review these critiques and find them to have little to no merit. Specifically, the critiques misunderstand the papers' methods and rely on inappropriate analyses. In our view, there is remarkably robust evidence that zoning reforms increased housing supply and reduced rents in Auckland. |
| Keywords: | housing, planning, zoning, supply, Auckland |
| JEL: | R31 R52 C54 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:24_07 |
| By: | Brunetti, Roberto; Gaigné, Carl; Moizeau, Fabien |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of land in wealth dynamics, and its consequences on efficiency and inequality by focusing on the interplay among agents’ bidding for location, mortgage market imperfections, and inheritance. We develop a model in which altruistic agents leave to their heirs a financial bequest and their housing wealth. The borrowing constraint generates a housing return premium and spatial wealth sorting, which translate into persistent inequality. Since altruism and the borrowing constraint distort land price formation, we discuss different corrective tax schedules. Land taxation cannot be disconnected from inheritance taxation, and must be levied on the inheriting generation. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Land Economics/Use, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:348477 |
| By: | Espeland, Sierra; LanzDuret-Hernandez, Julia; Grajdura, Sarah; Rowangould, Dana |
| Abstract: | The challenge of meeting transportation needs is heightened in rural contexts, where destinations are more dispersed and there are fewer transportation options. A growing body of literature has established that accessibility, or the ability to reach valued destinations, is critical to satisfying a person’s fundamental needs. Conversely, difficulty accessing destinations can result in travel burdens such as high transportation costs or unmet needs, adversely affecting well-being. This study evaluates differences in travel burdens and the factors that drive them in rural and urban contexts in the United States. Using the 2017 National Household Transportation Survey, the authors first evaluate differences in travel burdens across rural versus urban communities, including i) the magnitude of travel burdens, ii) who experiences travel burdens, and iii) the individual and environmental factors that are associated with travel burdens. This study finds that people living in rural areas are more likely to report burdensome travel costs and unmet travel needs compared to people living in nonrural areas, and these differences are exacerbated for people earning a low income and those without vehicle access. The authors also observe variation across rural contexts, pointing to the role that proximity to town centers plays for providing access for those without a vehicle. To better understand the relationship between unmet need and vehicle access, the authors conducted 59 semi structured interviews with two populations living in Vermont: i) people living in the largely rural Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, and ii) Latinx migrant workers living in Vermont. The qualitative interview results illustrate the transportation experiences, barriers, and adaptations of rural car-limited populations. Findings underscore the importance of vehicle access as a determinant of mobility for many people living in rural communities. The interview findings highlight barriers to mobility such as vehicle maintenance costs as well as the mobility that personal networks and limited public transportation provide for many people without a personal vehicle. The interview results also point to substantial variation in experiences and needs across rural populations, as Latinx migrant workers’ mobility was also related to English proficiency, proximity to an international border, and availability of a driver’s privilege card. As decision makers seek more sustainable rural transportation systems and a reduced reliance on vehicles, the findings from this study underscore the importance of addressing the needs of car-limited rural populations to ensure an equitable and just climate transition. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transport disadvantage, unmet need, rural, carless, migrant |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3rc9f2bt |
| By: | Rana, Sohel; Faye, Amy |
| Abstract: | Whilst migration to urban areas is often understood through higher wage opportunities, it is not well understood why many rural poor often prefer rural destinations, particularly during temporary migration. This preference also calls for an investigation of the household-level income effects of different destination choices. Our study focuses on northern rural Bangladesh, where rural-bound temporary migration is common. We employ a multi-step conditional probit model with subsamples to analyze temporary migrant’s destination choices, accounting for their self-selection into migration. Similarly, we apply a multi-step control function approach to address endogeneity in examining the income effects of different destination choices. Our results show that destination choices rely on migrants’ individual characteristics, prior perceptions and subsequent experiences of the destination, and the influence of migrant networks. Although rural destinations often offer a better income-to-cost ratio, they are not necessarily better than urban destinations in increasing total household income. In fact, remittances from rural-bound temporary migration are lower than those from urban-bound migration. Yet, rural destinations offer greater utility maximization in the face of migrants’ constraints, leading to a preference for this destination type among such migrants. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:348395 |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo; Drago, Carlo; Mallardi, Giulio; Costantiello, Alberto; Magaletti, Nicola |
| Abstract: | This article focuses on the propensity to patent across Italian regions, considering data from ISTAT-BES between 2004 and 2019 to contribute to analyzing regional gaps and determinants of innovative performances. Results show how the North-South gap in innovative performance has persisted over time, confirming the relevance of research intensity, digital infrastructure, and cultural employment on patenting activity. These relations have been analyzed using the panel data econometric model. It allows singling out crucial positive drivers like R&D investment or strongly negative factors, such as limited mobility of graduates. More precisely, given the novelty of approaches applied in the used model, the following contributions are represented: first, the fine grain of regional differentiation, from which the sub-national innovation system will be observed. It also puts forward a set of actionable policy recommendations that would contribute to more substantial inclusive innovation, particularly emphasizing less-performing regions. By focusing on such dynamics, this study will indirectly address how regional characteristics and policies shape innovation and technological competitiveness in Italy. Therefore, it contributes to the debate on regional systems of innovation and their possible role in economic development in Europe since the economic, institutional, and technological conditions are differentiated between various areas in Italy. |
| Date: | 2024–12–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nftv3 |
| By: | Baciu, Dan Costa (Architektur Studio Bellerive) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the complex relationship between mobility, diversity, and perceived urban value by studying urban “chains of activities” that define city life. Introducing chains-of-activities-models (CHOAMs), we present a method for systematically analyzing how individuals move through the city and engage in a variety of urban activities. We also show that changing mobility options or the supply of activities can directly influence the ways people experience and the extent to which they value the urban environment. By facilitating rapid modeling and testing of scenarios, our research framework empowers urban planners, designers, and policymakers to envision cities as dynamic systems and leverage the relationship between mobility and diversity to optimize human-scale benefits. Through these insights obtainable through CHOAMs, the present article opens the door to a future of automated, proactive, and value-driven urban design. |
| Date: | 2024–12–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:wuyp9 |
| By: | Chrispin Kamuikeni; Hisahiro Naito |
| Abstract: | Applying a Panel Fixed Effect model to a large dataset of migration and local weather conditions in 16 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, this study estimates the impacts of long-term weather aberrations on within-country migration. To address potential omitted variable bias, this study accounts for weather conditions in alternative places of residence–an aspect which has been overlooked by previous studies. Results establish a causal link between climate change and migration, but this effect is observed primarily in a block of West SSA countries. In this region, climate-related relocation is driven by both long-term changes in weather (specifically rainfall and temperature) and temperature volatility. In this region, climate-related relocation is driven by both long term changes in weather (rainfall and temperature) and temperature volatility. Quantitatively, this study finds that over the last 30 years, an average annual rainfall decline of 120mm increased internal migration by 14 percentage points while a sustained average temperature increase of 0.5°C resulted in an 8 percentage point rise in internal relocation. However, temperature fluctuations are found to lowered the odds of out-migration by 22 percentage points. Additional findings reveal that increasing temperatures force climate migrants to travel to much farther destination areas. However, we do not find evidence that adverse rainfall outcomes increase relocation distance. Additionally, We establish that climate migrants tend to relocate from rural districts to urban centers. Finally, We obtain evidence that climate-related mobility involves relocation of a family units, as suggested by the significance of climate mobility of young children (less than 12 years old). Meanwhile, when the same specifications are applied on East SSA, we find weak evidence of climate-related mobility in this region. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2024-003 |
| By: | Miroslav Gabrovski; Ioannis Kospentaris; Victor Ortego-Marti (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a housing search model to analyze the role of realtors in fa- cilitating transactions and shaping housing market liquidity. Motivated by the recent landmark settlement between the National Association of Realtors and home sellers’ associations, we contrast two market structures: a directed search equilibrium, where sellers post prices and fees, and a random search equilibrium, where matched agents bargain the terms of trade bilaterally. A comparison between the two models suggests that the settlement may have unintended consequences that lower buyers’ welfare: ran- dom search features 2.5% higher prices, 17% lower sales, and 23% fewer buyers entering the market than the directed search equilibrium. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering realtor entry and market liquidity for a comprehensive evalu- ation of housing market reforms. |
| Keywords: | Housing market; Search and matching; Housing Market Liquidity; Directed Search; Random Search |
| JEL: | E2 E32 E44 G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202410 |
| By: | Casati, Paola; Kalantzis, Fotios |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how regional spillovers influence firms' climate investment decisions across EU regions using spatial econometric models. Using data from the European Investment Bank Investment Survey (EIBIS) 2023, we address two key questions: what triggers firms to adopt greener profiles, and how spillover effects impact investment decisions in neighbouring regions. Our study, reveals the existence of significant spatial dependence in firms' climate investment decisions across EU regions, underscoring at the same time the interconnected nature of adaptation and mitigation efforts. Further, risk perceptions, financial capabilities, external conditions like economic and institutional frameworks and EU funds, play a key role in shaping climate investment choices both locally and in neighbouring regions. The results underscore the critical need for spatial considerations in climate policy development, suggesting that policies tailored to regional dynamics can more effectively foster climate resilience and climate investments. |
| Keywords: | European Investment Bank Investment Survey, Green investment, Spatial regression analysis |
| JEL: | C21 Q54 Q55 Q56 Q58 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:306851 |
| By: | Cristina Lopez-Mayan (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Giulia Montresor (University of Verona); Catia Nicodemo (Brunel University of London & University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the school entry age policy on adolescent risk–taking behaviors. The policy mandates that children begin primary education in the year they turn six, creating relative age differences within cohorts due to a January 1st cutoff date. Using data from the Spanish School Survey on Drug Use, we analyze a comprehensive set of risky behaviors, including substance use, gambling, gaming, internet use, and sexual activity among students in the early adolescence in compulsory education. Employing an empirical strategy that compares students born in December (young–for–grade) and January (old–for–grade) while controlling for potential confounders, we find that young–for–grade students are less likely to engage in risky behaviors. Findings are consistent across various robustness checks. Further analysis suggests that both absolute age differences and educational cycle effects contribute to these findings. Gender–specific patterns reveal distinct effects for boys and girls, while school type shows limited variation. Notably, most behavioral differences diminish by late adolescence in high school. This research broadens our understanding of the non–academic impacts of school entry age policies contributing to the literature on education policy and adolescent development |
| Keywords: | risky health behaviors, school entry age, young–for–grade and old–for–grade students, education policy JEL classification: I12, I21, J13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202408 |
| By: | Porsse, Alexandre (NEDUR, UFPR); Giorio, João Victor (NEDUR, UFPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to identify the factors conditioning transport mode choice in the Curitiba Metropolitan Area (CMA). The empirical analysis was carried out based on a multinomial logistic model, estimated based on data from a household origin-destination survey conducted in 2017. The results show that higher income levels increase the preference for commuting by car, while longer commuting times increase the preference for commuting by bus. We also identified a non-linear relationship between travel time and the probability of choosing to commute using car or bus, which is a relevant result for the formulation of urban mobility policies in the CMA. |
| Keywords: | Mode of transport; preferences; Curitiba Metropolitan Area |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:tnedur:2024_002 |
| By: | Sabrina Lucia Di Addario; Zhexin Feng; Michel Serafinelli |
| Abstract: | This paper presents direct evidence on how firms' innovation is affected by access to knowledgeable labor through co-worker network connections. We use a unique dataset that matches patent data to administrative employer-employee records from "Third Italy"-a region with many successful industrial clusters. Establishment closures displacing inventors generate supply shocks of knowledgeable labor to firms that employ the inventors' previous co-workers. We estimate event-study models where the treatment is the displacement of a "connected" inventor (i.e., a previous coworker of a current employee of the focal firm). We show that the displacement of a connected inventor significantly increases connected inventors' hiring. Moreover, the improved access to knowledgeable workers raises firms innovative activity. We provide evidence supporting the main hypothesized channel of knowledge transfer through firm-to-firm labor mobility by estimating IV specifications where we use the displacement of a connected inventor as an instrument to hire a connected inventor. Overall, estimates indicate that firms exploit displacements to recruit connected inventors and the improved capacity to employ knowledgeable labor within the network increases innovation. |
| Keywords: | social connections, firm-to-firm labor mobility, patents, establishment closure |
| JEL: | J60 O30 J23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:497 |
| By: | Michael T. Baker; Susan P. Carter; Abigail Wozniak |
| Abstract: | A large literature links marriage to later life outcomes for children and adults. Marriage has declined markedly in the U.S. over the last 50 years, particularly among individuals with less than a baccalaureate degree, yet the causes of the decline are not well understood. In this paper we provide causal evidence on one potential mechanism for the observed marriage rate patterns: peer effects. We use administrative personnel data from the U.S. Army to study how peers influence marriage decisions for junior enlisted soldiers arriving to their first assignment from 2001-2018, a setting which features substantial variation in peer group marriage rates and conditional random assignment to peer groups. We find that exposure to the 75th versus 25th percentile of our identifying variation in peer marriage rates increases the likelihood that an unmarried individual marries within two years of assignment by 1.9 percent. We show that lateral peers and near supervisors alike influence marriage decisions and we argue that our results are most consistent with conformist behavior, where peers influence marriage decisions through role-modeling and group social norms. The effect of peers is larger for men, and for Black and Hispanic men, in particular. While the effect of peers attenuates after 36 months for white and Hispanic men, effects persist and continue to grow over time for Black men, suggesting that our results are not fully explained by re-timing. We benchmark our estimates against previous research and argue that the effect of peers on individual marriage decisions is economically meaningful. |
| Keywords: | Marriage; Marriage formation; peer effects |
| JEL: | J12 J11 J13 D10 D91 |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99211 |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou (University of Mannheim); Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (CEMFI); Karen Kopecky |
| Abstract: | The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is employed to estimate peer effects in opioid misuse. Severe injuries in the previous year are used as an instrument for opioid misuse in order to estimate the causal impact of a person’s best friends’ opioid misuse on their own misuse. The estimated peer effects are significant: Having a best friend with a reported serious injury in the previous year increases the probability of own opioid misuse by around 7 percentage points in a population where 17 percent ever misuses opioids. The effect is concentrated among non-college graduates and peers with strong ties who are central in their friendship networks. Peer opioid misuse leads to deteriorating health, opioid addiction, and eventually death. |
| Keywords: | peer-group effects, instrumental variables, Add Health, severe injuries |
| JEL: | C26 D10 I12 J11 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-020 |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum P.; Ancheta, Jenica A. |
| Abstract: | This study examines how demographic changes lead to different household structures and housing choices among various age groups. It argues that the cointegration of demography, the housing market, and wealth has shaped housing demand in the country over time. The results have important, often unrecognized implications for housing policy. Estimating housing needs without a contextual analysis of household formation can be misleading; thus, the government must connect demographic changes to housing demand to ensure the correct policy framework is established that balances the needs of the productive sector with those of the growing elderly population in terms of housing consumption. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | demographic trends;household formation;homeownership;housing habitability;Philippines |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-26 |
| By: | Ingrid Gould Ellen; Daniel Hartley; Jeffrey Lin; Wei You |
| Abstract: | In response to private insurers’ postwar withdrawal from urban neighborhoods, roughly half of U.S. states developed programs in the late 1960s that offered residual property insurance to property owners denied in the private market. These plans, known as Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plans after 1968, inadvertently encouraged moral hazard through underwriting restrictions, risk pooling, and generous payouts. We use a triple-difference design to estimate FAIR’s impact, comparing: (1) pre- and post-FAIR participation periods, (2) neighborhoods likely offered FAIR plans versus those not, and (3) similar contrasts in non-participating states. FAIR plans led to significant housing disinvestment and declines in central neighborhood population and income in the late 1960s and 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Moral hazard; Neighborhoods |
| JEL: | G52 N92 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:99322 |
| By: | Yashvant R Premchand (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and TNO); Henri L.F. de Groot (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Thomas de Graaff (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Eric Koomen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute) |
| Abstract: | Land subsidence which is primarily driven by water management practices and enhanced by increasing droughts is a growing global concern that affects the environment, infrastructure, and housing. In the Netherlands, subsidence damages houses and their foundations, resulting in high costs of repair for homeowners. However, public awareness remains limited about individual vulnerability and financial impact. This study aims to identify the link between land subsidence and house prices. Using over 100, 000 housing transactions from 2000–2022 and detailed subsidence data, we find an average price discount of 2.3–5.0% for houses exposed to land subsidence, with larger effects for houses constructed before 1970 for which foundation damage is more prominent. Our findings suggest that, even with limited information and low societal urgency, homebuyers do consider the potential damage of land subsidence in expressing their willingness to pay for a house, especially after recent droughts. |
| Keywords: | Land subsidence, Water management, House prices, Hedonic pricing, Climate adaptation |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 R14 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240073 |
| By: | Grönqvist, Hans (Department of Economics and Statistics); Niknami, Susan (Stockholm University); Palme, Mårten (Stockholm University); Priks, Mikael (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children’s short- and long-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that the incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen criminal convictions, a decrease in high school graduation, and worse labor market outcomes in adulthood. The effects are concentrated among children from disadvantaged families, in particular families where the remaining non-convicted parent is disadvantaged. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behavior in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets and progressive criminal justice systems. |
| Keywords: | incarceration; crime |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2024_012 |
| By: | Yeorim Kim; Mauro Mastrogiacomo |
| Abstract: | Mortgagors insured against negative home equity are less likely to partially prepay their mortgage debt compared to those without the insurance. We identify the effect of insurance on prepayments combining two strategies. First we use a regression discontinuity design, enabled by the acceptance criteria of the Dutch insurance which is only accessible for houses below a legislated threshold. After that we add information on (unexpected) intergenerational transfers to the borrowers. We find that insured borrowers make 22.8% lower prepayments relative to their original debt, and we propose that this could be explained by moral hazard. As this insurance was an ‘offer you cannot refuse’, this is a more likely explanation than adverse selection. |
| Keywords: | moral hazard; mortgage insurance; mortgage prepayment |
| JEL: | D14 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:823 |
| By: | Gajderowicz, Tomasz (University of Warsaw); Jakubowski, Maciej (University of Warsaw); Kennedy, Alec (International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement); Christrup, Christian (Aarhus University); Patrinos, Harry Anthony (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Strietholt, Rolf (International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions to education, with school closures affecting over one billion children. These closures, aimed at reducing virus transmission, resulted in significant learning losses, particularly in mathematics and science. Using data from TIMSS 2023, which assesses fourth and eighth-grade achievements across 71 education systems, this study analyzes the impact of school closure duration on learning outcomes. Mixed-effect models estimate deviations from pre-pandemic trends, adjusting for demographic factors. Results show a global average decline of 0.11 standard deviations (SD) in student achievement, with longer closures linked to more severe losses. The effects on low performers, girls, and linguistic minorities show effect sizes up to 0.22 SD. These findings highlight the lasting impact of school closures and emphasize the need for targeted recovery strategies and international cooperation to promote equitable educational outcomes post-pandemic. |
| Keywords: | pandemics, human capital, returns to education, labor markets, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J17 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17550 |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Cassandra Marks; Karel Mertens; Hannah Rubinton |
| Abstract: | Job opportunities have been a key reason why workers move to another state. What drives interstate migration for remote workers, who can do their jobs from anywhere? |
| Keywords: | remote workers; work from home; interstate migration |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99187 |
| By: | Almaden, Catherine Roween C. |
| Abstract: | This research provides a comprehensive comparison of the financial, educational, and socio-spatial considerations in establishing State Universities and Colleges (SUCs) satellite campuses versus enhancing support mechanisms for existing SUCs in the Philippines. It highlights their critical role in expanding access to higher education, particularly for underserved and geographically isolated communities. Building on literature that identifies satellite campuses as tools for addressing educational disparities and fostering regional socio-economic development, the study emphasizes cost-effectiveness in decision-making. Using a mixed-methods approach, it combines quantitative cost-effectiveness analysis with qualitative insights from Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with SUC stakeholders to explore financial and operational challenges. The cost-effectiveness analysis utilizes key financial metrics such as Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Findings indicate that while satellite campuses offer opportunities to improve educational access, their financial sustainability is constrained by high initial investments and operational costs. Current low-fee structures in SUCs limit revenue generation, with long-term projections rarely covering infrastructure and operational expenses. Revenue-enhancing strategies are essential to address these constraints and ensure viability. Infrastructure development emerges as a major cost factor, with many SUCs relying on partnerships with Local Government Units (LGUs) for land donations. However, budget limitations remain a significant barrier. Qualitative data highlight the socio-economic benefits of satellite campuses, including the empowerment of marginalized populations and local economic growth. Aligning educational programs with local needs is identified as key to maximizing impact. Enrollment trends reveal regional disparities, with concentrations in CALABARZON, Central Luzon, and NCR, while underserved areas, particularly in Mindanao, face persistent barriers. An analysis of compliance rates shows that 69% of SUCs have achieved a Certificate of Program Compliance (COPC), though postgraduate programs lag behind undergraduate offerings. The performance of Teacher Education Programs in licensure exams further underscores disparities between main and satellite campuses. The study concludes that optimizing existing SUC campuses through improved resource allocation, targeted policies, and sustainable funding solutions can enhance educational outcomes, support local and regional development, and create a more inclusive higher education system in the Philippines. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | state universities and colleges;SUCs;satellite campuses;cost-effectiveness analysis;cost considerations of establishing satellite campuses;cost considerations of supporting learners |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-33 |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum P.; Ancheta, Jenica A. |
| Abstract: | Nuclear households remain the dominant household type in the Philippines, but a rising number of extended and multifamily households is observed, which has important implications for housing policy and demographic trends in the country. This study examines the factors influencing the decision to live in such household types. Multinomial logistic regressions are used to determine the association of potential factors with the formation of extended and multifamily households. The results show that this formation is not necessarily a negative development, as cultural factors influence this arrangement; however, there is reason to believe that limited housing options in the market and the low attainability of homeownership for most individuals are driving the rise in extended and multifamily arrangements. There is a need for the government to rethink its supply-driven housing policy in order to effectively respond to the housing needs and the demographic changes that drive such needs. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | housing choice;extended households;demography;Philippines |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-32 |
| By: | Lancelot Henry de Frahan; Jung Sakong |
| Abstract: | We estimate intergenerational elasticities (IGE) of housing consumption and income in the U.S. Using surnames to link 1940 and 2015, we estimate a one-generation housing-consumption IGE of 0.73, higher than that of income at 0.52. Housing consumption IGE is higher for White compared to Black Americans and higher in the Northeast, patterns that contrast with income IGE. Inverting Engel curves suggests a total-consumption IGE of 0.72. Complementary to income IGE, consumption mobility is a closer measure of welfare mobility, and comparisons with income IGE inform intergenerational consumption insurance. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational elasticity; Consumption mobility |
| JEL: | J62 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:99306 |
| By: | Alison Baulos (The University of Chicago Center for the Economics of Human Development); Jorge Luis Garcia (Texas A&M University); James J. Heckman (The University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | The Perry Preschool Project, the longest-running experimental study of an early childhood education program, demonstrates how such interventions can yield long-term personal, societal, and intergenerational benefits for disadvantaged populations. The evidence is clear: investments in high-quality early childhood education and parental engagement can deliver returns even 50 years later. The program’s findings remain scientifically robust, particularly when analyzed through rigorous small-sample inference methods. The program’s findings also contradict common criticisms of preschool, as, when measured correctly, treatment effects on IQ do not fadeout. This paper draws insights from both the original founders and recent empirical studies, emphasizing the critical role of parental involvement in early education. The authors advocate for a scientific agenda focused on understanding the mechanisms behind treatment effects, rather than replicating specific programs. The analysis also underscores the broader implications of early childhood interventions for social mobility and human capital formation. Analysts of early childhood education should recognize that although credentials and formal curricula contribute to successful programs, the true measure of quality lies in adult-child interactions, which play an essential role. |
| Keywords: | Perry Preschool Project, early childhood education, long-term follow3-up study, intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | I24 I32 J15 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-019 |
| By: | Silke Anger; Jacopo Bassetto; Malte Sandner |
| Abstract: | While Western countries worry about labor shortages, their institutional barriers to skill transferability prevent immigrants from fully utilizing foreign qualifications. Combining administrative and survey data in a difference-in-differences design, we show that a German reform, which lifted these barriers for non-EU immigrants, led to a 15 percent increase in the share of immigrants with a recognized foreign qualification. Consequently, non-EU immigrants' employment and wages in licensed occupations (e.g., doctors) increased respectively by 18.6 and 4 percent, narrowing the gaps with EU immigrants. Despite the inflow of non-EU immigrants in these occupations, we find no evidence of crowding out or downward wage pressure for natives. |
| Keywords: | Skill Transferability, Occupational Recognition, Immigrant Integration |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J62 F22 |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:498 |
| By: | Lee, Juneyoung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Young Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Digital transformation (DX) technologies are general-purpose technologies that replace human labor. They can be applied to a wide variety of industries today to enhance various aspects of firm performance. The Seoul Capital Area (SCA), which comprises the cities of Seoul and Incheon and the surrounding province of Gyeonggi, is home to most of Korea’s largest and most influential firms and economic activity. But the government has policies in place designed to promote balanced regional development, and DX is at the forefront of South Korea’s policy agenda for strengthening the competitiveness of industries outside the SCA. But in order for these efforts to be effective, it is necessary to analyze the unique ways that DX technologies can affect firms depending on their industry and even geographic location. For this study, we empirically analyze data extracted from Statistics Korea’s Survey of Business Activities to examine the different ways in which DX technologies impact firms in different regions and industries. Our analysis reveals that DX technologies exert a positive impact on employment and financial performance, especially at non-manufacturing firms in SCA and manufacturing firms outside of it. We also find that DX leads to better performance at non-SCA manufacturers. The results carry the following implications for DX-based balanced regional development policies. - The government should increase policy funding to support the use of digital technologies at factories and other places of business. It should also support upgrades of existing business sites. - There is a need for additional support measures to facilitate collaboration between buyers and suppliers of DX solutions. The Industrial Digital Transformation Promotion Act lays out some provisions calling for this support, but achieving balanced regional development requires more investment. - We should also increase support for research at public institutions that operate regional headquarters and have proven capable of providing quality research services essential for regional DX and innovation. - Finally, more support should be provided to regional post-secondary institutions of learning. Only by doing so can regions hope to develop and train their own human resources equipped with the necessary DX skills to enhance indigenous DX capacity. |
| Keywords: | service sector; services; digital transformation; balanced development; regional development; regional economics; digital innovation; regional innovation; service industry; South Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | L80 L88 O14 O30 O36 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2024_005 |
| By: | Yue Cao; Judith A. Chevalier; Jessie Handbury; Hayden Parsley; Kevin R. Williams |
| Abstract: | A common tactic to estimate willingness-to-travel exploits variation in the relative proximity of consumers to supplier locations. The validity of these estimates relies on the exogeneity of that consumer-supplier distance. We argue that distance to suppliers is endogenous because suppliers strategically choose locations to target consumers; we introduce a novel instrument to address this form of endogeneity. Using geolocation data from millions of smartphones, we estimate consumer preferences for specific retail chains across income groups and regions. We show that accounting for distance endogeneity significantly alters willingness-to-travel measures. Contrary to the prevailing “retail apocalypse” narrative, we find that consumer surplus per trip to general merchandise stores did not significantly decline from 2010 to 2019. For the lowest-income consumers, the expansion of national chains, particularly dollar stores, nearly compensates for the closure of traditional department stores and regional chains. Notably, failing to account for distance endogeneity leads to the erroneous conclusion that lower-income households experienced statistically significant consumer surplus declines. |
| JEL: | C26 C55 D12 L81 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33307 |
| By: | Lorenzo Aldeco Leo; Alejandrina Salcedo |
| Abstract: | We show that in Mexico larger shares of potential remote work at the municipality level are related to lower post-pandemic employment in high-proximity consumer services, a relatively large sector that mainly employs low-income workers. We use a triple difference event study design where we compare employment in high and low proximity sectors across municipalities with different levels of remote work potential, before and after the pandemic. Our results contribute to explain the relatively weak recovery in high proximity employment in the central region of the country, where at the start of the pandemic a larger proportion of high-proximity services located where remote work potential was high, relative to other regions. The analysis highlights that with the pandemic the sectoral distribution of employment has changed, and that the effects on workers depend on their capacity to adjust to the new labor market. |
| Keywords: | Remote work;Consumer services;Middle-income;Triple-differences |
| JEL: | O33 R11 J20 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-17 |
| By: | Madi Mangan; Mauro Mastrogiacomo; Hans Bloemen |
| Abstract: | Mortgage defaults are commonly linked to affordability and borrowers’ income; less often, to a decrease in home value. However, some studies talk about “strategic defaults†, a form of moral hazard whereby people who can afford their underwater mortgage choose not to pay. In this way, they clear their excess debt, as single recourse systems act as insurance. Our focus is on a type of mortgage insurance, available for houses with values below a certain threshold, that varies over time. We examine how this mortgage insurance affects decisions to default. We combine a quasi-natural experiment with the estimation of a structural model, more precisely an optimal stopping model. Our findings reveal that the (utility from) future value of home equity negatively influences the likelihood of default. We show that the discontinuity around the qualification threshold is linked to borrowers’ income, due to loan-to-income caps. The model indicates that while the insurance does not cause defaults in general, it does lead to more defaults for borrowers who separate from their partners, possibly indicating moral hazard. |
| Keywords: | Residual Mortgage Insurance; Non-performance; Structural model; quasi-natural experiment |
| JEL: | G11 G21 G52 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:824 |
| By: | Roland Füss (Swiss Finance Institute; University of St. Gallen - School of Finance); Dominik Meyland (affiliation not provided); Stefan Morkoetter (University of St. Gallen - School of Finance; University of St.Gallen / St.Gallen Institute of Management in Asia) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of households' pecking order of debt in the pricing and rating migration of U.S. consumer debt asset-backed securities (ABS). Our empirical results show that the household's delinquency on mortgage and auto loan increases spreads of ABS using these loan types as collateral. Increasing delinquency on credit card and student loans often lower spreads of ABS with other collateral. We argue that delinquencies on these types of loans in a household's loan portfolio provide liquidity to other loans. In contrast, rising delinquencies on mortgages, the first to be repaid in the pecking order, are an indicator of a severe shock spilling over to other loan types, triggering a simultaneous increase in ABS spreads. Furthermore, we find for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) a lower probability of future rating downgrades in times of high mortgage delinquency. Thus, ratings are adjusted according to changes in the business cycle. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp24102 |
| By: | Hall, Caroline (d Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS)); Lindahl, Erica (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Roman, Sara (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of access to a child home care allowance on parents’ labor supply and childcare decisions, as well as their longer-term earnings trajectories and children’s school performance. To establish causality, we exploit variation in the availability of the allowance over time and across municipalities. The analysis is based on rich administrative data for the entiren Swedish population. Our results suggest a negative impact of benefit eligibility on mothers’ labor supply and earnings as well as on children’s enrollment in childcare during the time the family is entitled to the benefit (until the child turns 3 years old). Negative impacts on mothers’ earnings persist after benefit eligibility has expired and are still visible 7 years after childbirth. These effects are driven by mothers who lacked earnings before childbirth, while there are no lasting impacts for mothers with prior employment. We find no effects on fathers’ earnings. As for the children, our results suggest that access to the home care allowance had a negative impact on boys’ scores on standardized tests at age 10, while there are no significant effects on girls’ test scores. |
| Keywords: | Home care allowance; labor supply; earnings; childcare; preschool; school performance |
| JEL: | J13 J18 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_023 |
| By: | Michell Yoonjei Dong (Green Climate Fund); Hee-Seung Yang (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of an earthquake in Indonesia on children’s school and work activities and how that relationship differs by access to credit. We find that the earthquake decreases educational attainment while increasing child labor and the effect is stronger for households with access to credit. Following the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake, years of schooling for earthquake-affected children aged 7-14 decreased by 0.5 years, but the effect was stronger for those living close to a microfinance institution. Heterogeneity in treatment effects suggests that the opportunity cost of schooling increases as households with micro-loans open up businesses. Our finding indicates the complementary effect between credit and child labor and suggests the need for policies to increase educational investment when providing micro-loans to help households affected by shocks. |
| Keywords: | natural disaster, earthquake, education, child labor, microfinance, Indonesia |
| JEL: | I20 O12 J13 H81 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2024rwp-235 |
| By: | Gerresheim, Nils; Krahé, Max |
| Abstract: | The US semiconductor company Intel is planning to build two ultra-modern chip factories near Magdeburg. This project was promised the largest industrial policy subsidy that the German government has ever approved for an individual company: almost 10 billion euros. Is this money well-spent? To answer this question, we developed guidelines for the evaluation of government investments (BESTInvest). This paper sets out these guidelines and applies them to Intel-Magdeburg. Our conclusion is that the subsidy is controversial. Although learning curve-, cluster- and innovation effects can create path dependencies in semiconductor production, there are uncertainties surrounding the size of these effects, and the impact of a single subsidy is likely to be moderate. Accordingly, it remains unclear whether the support would suffice to make Intel-Magdeburg competitive in the long term. In addition, relatively few jobs would be created, in a local labour market where there is currently a shortage of skilled workers. This calls into question the effects of the project on the regional and wider economy. In addition to economic factors, there are also relevant climate and sovereignty factors, which are positive but moderate. The over-all assessment therefore depends on the respective weights given to individual factors, as well as, if necessary, on the willingness to promote cluster formation and the competitiveness of the semiconductor industry in Germany and Magdeburg with further measures. |
| Keywords: | intel-magdeburg, semiconductors, industrialpolicy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:307093 |
| By: | Johansson, Magnus (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants influencing the choice of ports by shipowners routing container vessels to Swedish ports. Given Sweden's reliance on maritime transport for trade, understanding these factors is important for port authorities and policymakers to enhance port attractiveness and strengthen the national port network. The research focuses on the container market, ensuring a homogeneous product for analysis. The study employs a mixed logit model to analyze data from 2017 to 2019, including official statistics on vessel calls and AIS (automatic identification system for tracking vessel movements) data for turnaround times. Key variables considered include distance between ports, port size, port reliability, port load (the number of vessels being handled at the same time), vessel size, number of containers and if the upcoming call also is domestic. Results indicate that distance (distance cost), pilot fees, port size, and port load affect port choice, with the choice of port for smaller vessels being more sensitive to transport costs. The study also highlights the impact of repeated domestic calls on port attractiveness. The findings provide valuable insights for optimizing port operations and developing strategic policies to enhance Sweden's maritime trade infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Port choice; Container ports; Mixed logit; AIS data |
| JEL: | R42 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–11–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2024_007 |
| By: | Tegetmeyer, Inga; Neumeier, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Urbanization and demographic change are also having an impact on the demand for basic services. As a result, private and public service providers are gradually abandoning economically unattractive locations, whereby rural areas are generally more affected by these developments than urban areas. Against the backdrop of the norma-tive political goal of maintaining equivalent living conditions in all parts of the country, an important political objective in Germany is to counteract such processes. Unfortunately, apart from a few, usually spatially highly aggregated, supply indicators, there is hardly any small-scale differentiated data below the municipal level that provides information on whether, where and for whom the accessibility of basic services may be problematic. One of the areas for which there is hardly any data to date - although minimum service provision is defined by law - is the postal service. This working paper therefore examines the question of whether, where and, if so, for whom there are spatial inequalities in the accessibility of Deutsche Post AG post offices in Germany. The aim of the working paper is to create a data basis that allows us to assess the basic accessibility of Deutsche Post AG post offices, as it appears to households, for the whole of Germany. To this end, we examined the accessibility of post offices by the various means of transport - foot, bicycle, car and public transport - on a small scale in a 250×250 meters analysis grid using a GIS accessibility model from the perspective of the "households". We found that, contrary to popular belief, the accessibility or inaccessibility of post offices in Germany is not so much a spatial phenomenon that favors non-rural regions and disadvantages rural regions, as is often assumed. Instead, our study showed that the accessibility of post offices in Germany depends heavily on people's individual mobility in both rural and non-rural areas. |
| Abstract: | Urbansierung und demografischer Wandel zeigen auch Auswirkungen auf die Nachfrage nach Dienstleistungen der Grundversorgung. Das führt dazu, dass private und öffentliche Dienstleister bestrebt sind, wirtschaftlich unattraktive Standorte sukzessive aufgeben, wobei ländliche Räume von diesen Entwicklungen i. d. R. stärker betroffen sind als urbane. Vor dem Hintergrund des normativen politischen Leitbildes der Aufrechterhaltung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse in allen Landesteilen besteht in Deutschland ein wichtiges Politikziel darin, solchen Prozessen entgegenzuwirken. Einer der Bereiche, für die es bislang kaum Daten gibt - obwohl die Mindestversorgung gesetzlich vorgeschrieben ist -, ist die Post. Dieses Thünen Working Paper untersucht daher die Erreichbarkeit von Postfilialen der Deutschen Post AG in Deutschland. Ziel des Thünen Working Papers ist es, eine Datengrundlage zu schaffen, die es erlaubt, die grundlegende Erreichbarkeit von Postfilialen der Deutschen Post AG, wie sie sich für die Haushalte darstellt, flächendeckend für Deutschland einzuschätzen. Dazu haben wir die Erreichbarkeit von Postämtern mit den Verkehrsmitteln Fuß, Fahrrad, Auto sowie mit dem öffentlichen Personen(nah)verkehr (ÖPNV) kleinräumig in einem 250×250 Meter-Analyseraster mit Hilfe eines GIS-Erreichbarkeitsmodells aus der Perspektive der Haushalte untersucht. Dabei haben wir herausgefunden, dass Unterschiede in der Erreichbarkeit von Postämtern in Deutschland entgegen der landläufigen Meinung weniger ein räumliches Phänomen sind, das - wie oft angenommen - nicht-ländliche Regionen begünstigt und ländliche Regionen benachteiligt. Stattdessen zeigt unsere Studie, dass die Erreichbarkeit von Postämtern in Deutschland sowohl in ländlichen als auch in nicht-ländlichen Gebieten stark von der individuellen Mobilität der Menschen abhängt. |
| Keywords: | Thünen-Erreichbarkeitsmodell, Postdienstleistungen, Deutschland, GIS, Erreichbarkeit, Thünen-Accessibility Model, post-market, Germany, accessibility |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:307122 |
| By: | Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Aberdeen - Business School); Alona Shmygel (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management; National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | We make use of a rich database for the commercial real estate market in the U.S. that covers a long time period (2002-2024) and over 60 metropolitan markets to analyse the determinants of key inputs for the discounted cash flow or the direct capitalization approaches. Our main focus is on discount rates and capitalization rates, but we also study the factors affecting the implied growth rate of the net operating income. Given that the figures are appraisal-based, we use a common desmoothing approach to lower the degrees of serial correlation in the data. Beyond differences across property types, the discount rate in gateway markets is 89 basis points lower on average than in non-gateway markets. A similar difference is observed for capitalization rates (93 basis points). Inflation has an immediate negative impact on capitalization and discount rates due to the delayed adjustment of the rental income, but the effect turns positive over time. With a lag, real GDP growth reduces both rates, as expectations of economic growth reduce risk premia. Real interest rates consistently increase capitalization, discount, and growth rates through higher borrowing costs and portfolio reallocations. The results of this study should provide important information to appraisers and policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Discount rate, capitalization rate, NOI growth rate, commercial real estate, gateway markets, panel regression |
| JEL: | R32 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2491 |
| By: | Jordi Brandts (Instituto de Análisis Económico (CSIC) & Barcelona School of Economics); Isabel Busom (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB)); Cristina Lopez-Mayan (Serra Húnter Fellow & AQR-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona.) |
| Abstract: | Citizens’ ability to make informed and thoughtful choices when voting for policy proposals rests on their exposure to accurate information about the costs and benefits that each proposal entails. We study whether certain social factors affect the disposition to drop a misconception, the belief that rent control increases the availability of affordable housing. We design an on–line experiment where all participants watch a video explaining the scientific evidence on the consequences of this policy. We test whether letting them give feedback (giving voice) and informing them about others’ change of beliefs (social information) helps in reducing the misconception. Giving voice does not have an additional effect relative to a benchmark group that only watches the video. Social information further reduces the misconception when it specifies how different groups of people have responded to the video, but not when these distinctions are not made. Additionally, changes in beliefs translate into intended voting against the policy, and into recommending the video. Finally, ideological position and a zero–sum mentality are correlated with the initial misconception, but these two factors do not hinder the disposition to dropping it following the intervention. |
| Keywords: | policy beliefs, ideology, zero–sum thinking, refutational communication, online experiments. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2404 |
| By: | Velázquez-Martínez, Josué C.; Fransoo, Jan C. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:1af168e1-132e-439f-883e-fde4e3b8ac49 |
| By: | Manasan, Rosario G.; Maddawin, Ricxie B.; Juco, Marianne N. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines embraced a devolution agenda in 1991, leading to the enactment of the Local Government Code (LGC). Despite over three decades of implementation, devolution has remained incomplete, resulting in blurred accountability between the national government and local government units (LGUs) and inefficient delivery of basic devolved services. In March 2023, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered a review of the functions, services, and facilities that will be fully devolved to local governments. As part of this review, the study assesses LGU functional assignments across three critical sectors: health, infrastructure, and agriculture. The study performs an “unbundling” of the broad functions identified in the LGC and examines them in light of the principles of functional assignment and the binding constraints that have hindered devolution in the country. An expenditure analysis is employed to assess whether the increase in available financing in the first year of implementing the Mandanas ruling has translated into an increase in service delivery of devolved functions, as reflected in LGU spending. The study finds that the emphasis on subsidiarity and local autonomy, coupled with the country’s binding constraints, has resulted in significant gaps between de jure and de facto functional assignments, as well as disparities in assumed devolved functions across LGUs. The data further indicates uneven uptake or utilization of the increased funding across different levels of LGUs. The discussion highlights the need for a reevaluation of functional assignments, as well as the government's strategy to address the binding constraints that continue to hinder devolution: fiscal imbalances, institutional capacity, enforcement, and political economy factors. Specifically, the study recommends a re-assignment of the devolved functions—between national and local, and among different levels of local government—that not only accounts for institutional constraints but also aligns benefits and costs and considers inter-jurisdictional spillovers. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | decentralization;devolution;local governance;functional assignment;expenditure assignment;Mandanas ruling |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-40 |
| By: | Chiara Puccioni (Research Department, Confindustria); Daniela Vuri (DEF & CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of an Italian government initiative launched in 2007, which allocated e1 billion to regional governments to enhance early childhood care services for children aged 0-2, targeting both public and private childcare options. Exploiting variations in the timing of implementation across regions, we assess the program’s effectiveness in increasing the public provision of early childcare services and maternal labor market participation. Results show a significant increase in both public childcare slots and labor market participation among mothers. However, the initiative had limited effects on less-educated women, likely due to the service’s relatively high costs, which may hinder broader accessibility. |
| Keywords: | early childcare services; mothers’ labor supply; staggered difference-in-difference; dynamic estimates |
| JEL: | C21 C22 H52 H75 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:588 |
| By: | Herrin, Alejandro N.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Borja, Judith B.; Mayol, Nanette; Largo, Frank M.; Alegado, Jan L.J.; Bas, Isabelita N. |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to supplement information from PISA 2018 using the Longitudinal Cohort Study on the Filipino Child (LCSFC). In particular, it explores relationships among schooling outcomes, bullying, and a common set of child, belongingness, family, and community background factors. For this analysis, schooling outcome is measured as being on track with schooling, i.e., children are in age-appropriate grades and have no missed or repeated school years. The bullying variables include physical bullying by friends/classmates, adults, and parents, as well as emotional bullying by friends/classmates and parents. The examination considers the association between being bullied and on-track schooling while controlling for common background factors. The results show that only physical bullying from friends is significant for both sexes, while emotional bullying by friends is significant only for males. However, the association is positive, contrary to expectations. For example, Orbeta (2021) found a consistent and highly significant negative association between measures of bullying and achievement in Mathematics, Science, and Reading. Perhaps the association is greater when it comes to measured academic performance (e.g., scores on standardized tests) and not as pronounced for merely being on track in schooling, after controlling for the challenges of being on track as reflected by the background factors that also influence bullying. This brings attention back to the associations between background factors and on-track schooling, now considering bullying. The significant associations between child factors remain consistent and significant (IQ scores, children with disabilities, child work, attended nursery, and depressive symptoms). What is interesting is the consistent positive association of wasting with on-track schooling. It is not clear what this actually captures—perhaps it is related to the timing of interventions. No significant associations are seen with variables related to belongingness. The importance of family factors remains positive, particularly with household wealth, education of the mother (for males), and the mother’s confidence that the child can achieve a college education (for both sexes). Being part of the IP population is negatively associated for both males and females. An unexpected finding is the association between on-track schooling and an environment of violence at home, controlling for bullying. This association is significant and negative. This unexpected result may be due to unobserved factors, including children’s capacity to cope with unfavorable situations at home. Among community factors, residence in armed conflict areas is associated with poor schooling outcomes, especially for males. In summary, this study using longitudinal data finds a strong association between human capital factors (both child and parents) and schooling. In some instances, human capital factors tend to be protective against bullying (IQ scores, mothers' education, and aspirations for the child), which mitigate the potential effects of bullying and perhaps, in the process, build resilience in children. Further work needs to be done to uncover the underlying factors that current measures may mask. Comments on this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | EDCOM;sense of belongingness;bullying;Longitudinal Cohort Study on the Filipino Child;PISA 2018;community factors;family;violence;schooling outcomes;Second Congressional Commission on Education |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-42 |
| By: | Berlemann, Michael; Haustein, Erik; Steinhardt, Max Friedrich; Tutt, Jascha |
| Abstract: | Recently, there is a growing interest in understanding how individuals adapt to changing climate conditions and climate-induced extreme weather events, An underexplored question is whether and how climate-related natural hazards affect household saving behavior, For this purpose, we exploit a natural experiment stemming from the European Flood of August 2002, Combining micro data with geo-coded flood maps allows us to analyze the causal impact of flood exposure on household savings within a differences-in-differences setting, We find that flood exposure depresses household saving behavior in the medium run, The most likely explanation is moral hazard induced by massive government support for affected households. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, flood, saving behavior, natural experiment |
| JEL: | D14 H84 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:306363 |
| By: | Jaedo Choi; Younghun Shim |
| Abstract: | We study how one-time subsidies for adoption of modern technology drove Korea's industrialization in the 1970s. Leveraging unique historical data, we provide causal evidence consistent with coordination failures: adoption improved adopters' performance and generated local spillovers, with firms more likely to adopt when other local firms had already adopted. We incorporate these findings into a quantitative model, where the potential for multiple steady states depends on parameters mapped to the causal estimates. In our calibrated model, Korea's one-time subsidies shifted its economy to a more industrialized steady state, increasing heavy manufacturing's GDP share by 8.6% and export intensity by 16.2%. Larger market access amplifies the effects of these subsidies, as the gains from adoption increase with firms' scale. |
| Keywords: | Big push; Industrialization; Coordination failure; Complementarity; Local spillover; Market access |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/259 |
| By: | Pascal Beckers; Tesseltje de Lange; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ksenija Ivanović; Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Emigration from the Western Balkans (WB) to the European Union (EU) has long been a significant source of workers for the EU. In light of population ageing and the twin (digital and green) transitions in the EU, and as candidate countries for EU membership, their contribution may be more relevant than ever. At the same time, the outflow of workers from the WB has exacerbated labour and skill shortages across occupations in the region, depleting the talent pool needed for economic development. This challenge – while also an opportunity – requires immediate attention. Based on new research findings, this policy brief highlights incentives that encourage (i) emigration from the WB region and (ii) immigration to EU countries. In particular, it examines the impact of emigration on labour shortages in the WB and proposes timely policy recommendations for WB and EU policy makers. The policy recommendations are in three main categories (i) industrial policy to address labour shortages and boost technological development, (ii) migration and skills development policies, and (iii) improving data quality for market research and academia. |
| Keywords: | Pull and push factors of migration, migration aspirations/desires, destination decision, choice model, migration policy, skills development, Western Balkans, EU |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:87 |
| By: | Christos A. Makridis; Jason Schloetzer |
| Abstract: | We use a survey of nearly 360, 000 workers conducted from May 2020 through December 2023 to characterize shifts in remote work across time, industry, occupation, and geography, and examine the evolving relationship between remote work and employee engagement. We find remarkable stability in the incidence of remote work since mid-2021 with roughly one-half of workers reporting always working remotely or in a hybrid arrangement. While remote work arrangements across industries remain broad-based, at the occupation level, they are conspicuously concentrated in certain job classifications. Remote work continues to evolve across the U.S., with 13 (14) states experiencing reported increases (decreases) in remote work rates since 2022 with the most populous states experiencing remote working rates exceeding 40% of workers. Empirical evidence shows that while working remotely correlates with higher job satisfaction and lower intentions to quit, these correlations disappear when other workplace characteristics such as pay practices, human resources policies, and managerial relationships are considered. If remote work remains the norm, our results suggest it may not directly influence employee engagement—the workplace still matters. |
| JEL: | J2 J28 M12 M54 O33 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33315 |
| By: | Pejman Abedifar (University of St Andrews - School of Management; Khatam University - Tehran Institute for Advanced Studies; Khatam University); Soroush Kamyab (Khatam University); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Amine Tarazi (University of Limoges - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospectives Économiques (LAPE); University of Limoges - Faculty of Law and Economic Science; Economic Research Forum (ERF)) |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the relationship banking literature by uncovering the impact of a prior banking relationship on borrower's incentives to avoid default. As an identification strategy we exploit a proprietary dataset comprising 149, 230 mortgage loans tracked monthly over a two-year period in a unique institutional setting that allows us to isolate the influence of borrower's incentives. Our findings indicate that a pre-existing relationship diminishes borrower's default risk by approximately 4%, exclusively attributable to the value of the relationship for the borrowers. This effect persists even during the notable surge in loan defaults during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results also show that the impact of pre-existing banking relationships on avoiding default is stronger for wealthier, more religious, and male borrowers. |
| Keywords: | Relationship Banking, Borrower's Incentives, Mortgage Loan, COVID-19, Default Risk |
| JEL: | G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2485 |
| By: | Eva González; Cindy Rangel; Leonardo Torre; Alejandrina Salcedo; Jorge Alvarado |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes how the initial disruption in the supply of imported inputs associated to the COVID-19 pandemic may have induced heterogeneous responses in regional and sectoral gross output in México. Using the Regional Input-Output Matrices estimated by Banco de México, and the Supply Ghosh Model, the effects associated to the supply-side shock that ensued from the sudden reduction of imported inputs from China, the European Union, and the United States at the onset of the pandemic are calculated. The Northern region experienced the greatest contraction in gross output, while at the sectoral level, the manufacturing sector gross output was the most affected by the shock relative to a scenario with constant availability of inputs. These results are consistent with the fact that both, the Northern region and the manufacturing sector, are the most integrated to the global supply chain. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19;Input-Output;Ghosh Model;Mexico |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-19 |
| By: | Kaiji Chen; Mr. Yunhui Zhao |
| Abstract: | We construct a daily Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index by applying GPT-4o to Chinese news articles. Our method outperforms traditional models in several validation tests, including a test based on a suite of machine learning models. Applying this index to household-level data, we find that after monetary easing, an important group of homebuyers (who have a college degree and are aged between 30 and 50) in cities with more optimistic housing sentiment have lower responses in non-housing consumption, whereas for homebuyers in other age-education groups, such a pattern does not exist. This suggests that current monetary easing might be more effective in boosting non-housing consumption than in the past for China due to weaker crowding-out effects from pessimistic housing sentiment. The paper also highlights the need for complementary structural reforms to enhance monetary policy transmission in China, a lesson relevant for other similar countries. Methodologically, it offers a tool for monitoring housing sentiment and lays out some principles for applying generative AI models, adaptable to other studies globally. |
| Keywords: | Chinese Housing Market Sentiment; Generative AI; Monetary Policy Transmission; Consumption; Crowding-Out |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/264 |
| By: | Schouten, Jop (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Cognolato, Davide (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Borm, Peter (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Cruijssen, Frans (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Keywords: | network effects; technology selection, ; Critical mass; sustainable transport; transition |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:f0f45255-e4f9-44ad-8679-d537bc310028 |
| By: | Siddharth, L.; Luo, Jianxi |
| Abstract: | Design and innovation processes primarily generate knowledge upon retrieving and synthesising knowledge of existing artefacts. Understanding the basis of knowledge governing these processes is essential for theoretical and practical advances, especially with the growing inclusion of Large-Language Models (LLMs) and their generative capabilities to support knowledge-intensive tasks. In this research, we analyse a large, stratified sample of patented artefact descriptions spanning the total technology space. Upon representing these descriptions as knowledge graphs, i.e., collections of entities and relationships, we investigate the linguistic and structural foundations through frequency distribution and motif discovery approaches. From the linguistic perspective, we identify the generalisable syntaxes that show how most entities and relationships are constructed at the term level. From the structural perspective, we discover motifs, i.e., statistically dominant 3-node and 4-node subgraph patterns, that show how entities and relationships are combined at a local level in artefact descriptions. Upon examining the subgraphs within these motifs, we understand that artefact descriptions primarily capture the design hierarchy of artefacts. We also find that natural language descriptions do not capture sufficiently precise knowledge at a local level, which can be a limiting factor for relevant innovation research and practice. Moreover, our findings are expected to guide LLMs in generating knowledge pertinent to domain-specific design environments, to inform structuring schemes for future knowledge management systems, and to advance design and innovation theories on knowledge synthesis. |
| Date: | 2024–12–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ncqz3 |
| By: | Donggyu Kim (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Minseog Oh |
| Abstract: | In financial applications, we often observe both global and local factors that are modeled by a multi-level factor model. When detecting unknown local group memberships under such a model, employing a covariance matrix as an adjacency matrix for local group memberships is inadequate due to the predominant effect of global factors. Thus, to detect a local group structure more effectively, this study introduces an inverse covariance matrix-based financial adjacency matrix (IFAM) that utilizes negative values of the inverse covariance matrix. We show that IFAM ensures that the edge density between different groups vanishes, while that within the same group remains non-vanishing. This reduces falsely detected connections and helps identify local group membership accurately. To estimate IFAM under the multi-level factor model, we introduce a factor-adjusted GLASSO estimator to address the prevalent global factor effect in the inverse covariance matrix. An empirical study using returns from international stocks across 20 financial markets demonstrates that incorporating IFAM effectively detects latent local groups, which helps improve the minimum variance portfolio allocation performance. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202420 |
| By: | Javier Asensio (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) & Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).); Anna Matas (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) & Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).) |
| Abstract: | Spain operates a ‘competition for the market’ system to award the regulated monopoly rights to run intercity bus services across its different regions. Such tendering system has undergone different changes since 2007. We assess the impact of those changes on different outcomes of the auctions, such as participation, submitted prices and frequencies, as well as on outcomes of the whole process in terms of prices and frequencies offered to final consumers. The results show that the design of the terms of tender can significantly modify the conditions under which bus services are operated. The weight given to price bids in the score function is shown to be a relevant variable to increase competition for the market. |
| Keywords: | Tendering, Intercity bus, Coach, Score function auctions, Spain. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2406 |
| By: | Lind, Joar (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | The Swedish container port markets are analysed using the concept of captive and contestable hinterland and foreland. Using a freight transport planning tool, the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods, we identify the geographical markets of Swedish container ports and their market shares for the municipalities of Sweden. Results from the proposed method indicate that within the market segment, about half of municipalities in Sweden are captive, about a third is tied to the market-leading port. In the future, the market segment tends to be more captive, and the market-leading port will strengthen its position. |
| Keywords: | Port competition; Freight transport modelling; Hinterland; Port choice; Captive or contestable areas |
| JEL: | R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–11–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2024_006 |
| By: | Cortes, Guido Matias; Dabed, Diego; Oliveira, Ana; Salomons, Anna |
| Abstract: | We consider how firms' organization of production relates to workers' wages. Using matched employer-employee data from Portugal, we document that firms differ starkly in their occupational employment concentration, even within detailed industries, with some firms employing workers across a broad range of occupations and others being much more specialized. These differences are robustly predictive of wages: a worker employed in a specialized, i.e. "fissured" firm, earns less than that same worker employed in a less specialized firm. This wage penalty for working in a fissured firm is observed across occupations of all skill levels. Firm specialization helps account for the role of firms in inequality, as specialization is strongly negatively related to estimated AKM firm fixed effects. Around two-thirds of the wage penalty from fissuring is explained by differences in firm productivity. Fissured firms also engage in lower rates of rent-sharing conditional on productivity, accounting for around one-quarter of the difference in wage premia between high- and low-specialization firms. Finally, we show that being employed in a specialized firm is also associated with worse longer-term career outcomes for workers. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Segregation, Between-Firm Wage Inequality, Firm Productivity, Rent-Sharing |
| JEL: | J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:307595 |
| By: | Ivana Suradja (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Aulia Salsabella Suwarno (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Plastic pollution has emerged as a major environmental threat, particularly in the ASEAN region, where it impacts marine resources crucial to AMS economies. As AMS depend on marine ecosystems, plastic pollution poses significant risks to their ocean economies and biodiversity. This policy brief emphasises the importance of regional knowledge sharing as a strategy to effectively address plastic pollution. Drawing insights from initiatives such as the ASEAN Conference on Combating Plastic Pollution: Enhanced Synergies and Collaborative Actions to Combat Plastic Pollution (ACCPP 2023), it argues that collaborative knowledge sharing enables AMS to coordinate actions, share best practices, and create harmonised responses to the challenges posed by plastic pollution in marine environments. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-08 |
| By: | Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This essay suggests that there is a need for a Catalytic Industrial Policy (CIP) aimed at maximising positive outcomes on three axes at the same time – the green, the digital and the social – in order to speed up their realisation. Respective investments need to be guided in the desired directions, while ensuring that the benefits of CIP are widely shared, for instance through conditionalities. A bold CIP needs permanent monitoring, including through the use of relevant outcome indicators with pre-defined selection criteria. This essay provides a list of criteria and examples of outcome metrics. A key objective of such indicators would be to shed light on interdependencies. Also, it is important to look beyond those indicators that are already widely used at different levels of disaggregation and also beyond typical industrial policy examples. Alternative examples of indicators provided include, for example, trust in the national government, the operational stock of robots, and the area density of high- and low-voltage circuits in the transmission of electricity. A (perhaps unusual) CIP case could thus be a Europe-wide investment programme in high-quality, technologically sophisticated and sustainable (public) housing in support of the digital revolution, CO2 reduction and overcoming the housing crisis, thereby legitimising a tremendous ongoing structural change. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, ecological transformation, technological transformation, quality of life, democratic legitimation, structural change |
| JEL: | D63 L16 L52 O13 O14 O15 O18 O25 O32 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:89 |
| By: | Sølvsten, Simon; Whitlock, Zachary (Resources for the Future); Liao, Yanjun (Penny) (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of wildfires on community-level hazard mitigation efforts, specifically focusing on participation in the Firewise USA program. Using a panel dataset of ZIP Code Tabulation Areas in the western United States from 2002 to 2019, we find that wildfires significantly increase participation. However, the response is notably weaker in areas with higher shares of minority populations, suggesting that these communities face greater barriers to engaging in risk reduction efforts. The paper also explores the role of homeowners’ insurance, finding that Firewise participation can mitigate increases in insurance premiums after a wildfire, although it does not significantly affect the availability of coverage. The findings highlight the need for targeted support and coordination to enhance resilience in vulnerable communities.Keywords: wildfires, risk mitigation, Firewise communities, homeowners’ insurance. |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-25 |
| By: | Mehdi Guelmamen (University of Lorraine, University of Strasbourg, AgroParisTech, CNRS, INRAE, BETA.) |
| Abstract: | The provision of drinking water has become a central concern for public authorities due to climate change, prompting policymakers to reevaluate their approach to this semi-renewable resource. In this paper, we assess the effect of inter-municipal cooperation on performance. Using a comprehensive panel dataset comprising all French drinking water providers from 2008 to 2021, we show that organizational forms chosen by municipalities have an effect on prices of drinking water paid by consumers. More precisely, our empirical findings reveal a selection bias in the estimation of price equations and we show that consumer prices are significantly higher on average when municipalities decide to cooperate. Inter-municipal cooperation does not necessarily lead to better performance in the provision of drinking water. |
| Keywords: | intermunicipal cooperation, local government, public services, drinking water prices, selection bias |
| JEL: | H11 H77 L11 L95 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afd:wpaper:2410 |