nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2024–12–23
28 papers chosen by
Steve Ross, University of Connecticut


  1. Autonomous Schools, Achievement, and Segregation By Irmert, Natalie; Bietenbeck, Jan; Mattisson, Linn; Weinhardt, Felix
  2. Quantitative Urban Economics By Stephen J. Redding
  3. The Social Context of Spatial Choice: Activity Locations and Residential Segregation By Cai, Liang; Browning, Christopher; Anselin, Luc
  4. Spatial Economics By Stephen J. Redding
  5. Is Renewable Energy A Curse or Blessing? Evidence from Solar Power By Long, Xianling; Huang, Kaixing; Xu, Shang
  6. Emigration Dynamics and Transatlantic Voyage from Austria-Hungary to the U.S. between 1840 to 1910 By Uysal, Sezgin; Celebi, Ismail
  7. Incentivising small-scale investors to supply affordable private rental housing By Vij, Akshay; Sharam, Andrea; Baako, Kingsley; Ardeshiri, Ali; Faulkner, Debbie; Washington, Lynette; Reddy, Wejandra; Lowies, Braam
  8. Dynamic spatial interaction models for a leader's resource allocation and followers' multiple activities By Hanbat Jeong
  9. Inter-City Competition for Heterogeneous Creative Class Members Using Tax Policy By Huq, Umana; Batabyal, Amitrajeet
  10. How the US-China Trade War Accelerated Urban Economic Growth and Environmental Progress in Northern Vietnam By Matthew E. Kahn; Wen-Chi Liao; Siqi Zheng
  11. Temperature, crime and policing: Evidence from UK geocoded data By Braakmann, Nils
  12. A spouse and a house are all we need? Housing demand, labor supply and divorce over the lifecycle By Bram De Rock; Mariia Kovaleva; Tom Potoms
  13. Spatial heterogeneity analysis of the development level of digital economy By Tian Sisi
  14. Border effect in railway transport in Central Europe By Celebi, Ismail
  15. Azerbaijan's Strategic Role in the Middle Corridor: Taking the spotlight in the globalized world and boosting Non-Oil Sectors via transit operations By Rafi, Dilara
  16. Modelling Unwarranted Disparities in Sentencing: Distinguishing between Good and Bad Controls By Pina-Sánchez, Jose; Hamilton, Melissa; Tennant, Peter WG
  17. ERDF and ESF funding for skills for smart specialisation, industrial transition and entrepreneurship 2014-2020 By WOOLFORD Jayne; BACHTROEGLER-UNGER Julia; BURTON Anna; LALANNE Marie; GULDA Krzysztof
  18. Потенциал замедления экономики регионов в условиях локализации внешнеэкономической деятельности с КНР By Elshin, Leonid; Mingulov, Almaz; Mikhalevich, Polina
  19. Public service delivery, exclusion and externalities: Theory and experimental evidence from India By Alex Armand; Britta Augsburg; Antonella Bancalari; Maitreesh Ghatak
  20. An Analytical Assessment of Policy and Regulatory Frameworks for Green and Digital Transitions in Zamboanga City, Philippines By G. Moreno, Frede; Brique, John Michael
  21. Elite Strategies for Big Shocks: The Case of the Fall of the Ming By Carol H. Shiue; Wolfgang Keller
  22. Persuading Voters with Partisan TV News: A Natural Experiment Using Spatial Reception Data By Herault, Nicolas; Kollmann, Trevor; Thomson, Russell
  23. Feature Importance of Climate Vulnerability Indicators with Gradient Boosting across Five Global Cities By Lidia Cano Pecharroman; Melissa O. Tier; Elke U. Weber
  24. Shine a (Night)Light: Decentralization and Economic Development in Burkina Faso By Bargain, Olivier B.; Vincent, Rose Camille; Caldeira, Emilie
  25. Прогностическая оценка устойчивого развития импортозависимых секторов экономики региона в условиях внешнего давления By Elshin, Leonid; Mikhalevich, Polina; Mingulov, Almaz
  26. Child Penalties, Child Outcomes, and Family Culture By Gould, Eric D.; Lichtinger, Guy
  27. Forced Displacement, the Perpetuation of Autocratic Leaders, and Development in Origin Countries By Nicolas Cabra-Ruiz; Sandra V. Rozo; Maria Micaela Sviatschi
  28. Heterogeneity and endogenous peer-effect model and Stata application By Wang Qunyong

  1. By: Irmert, Natalie (Lund University); Bietenbeck, Jan (Lund University); Mattisson, Linn (Socialstyrelsen); Weinhardt, Felix (European University Viadrina, Frankfurt / Oder)
    Abstract: We study the impact of autonomous schools – publicly funded institutions that operate more independently than government-run schools – on student achievement and school segregation, using data from 15 countries over 16 years. Our triple-differences regressions exploit between-grade variation in the share of students attending autonomous schools within a given country and year. We find that autonomous schools do not raise overall achievement, and our estimates are precise enough to rule out even modest positive effects in math and small positive effects in science. However, these aggregate results mask important heterogeneity, with consistently positive effects for high-socioeconomic-status students and natives, and negative effects for low-socioeconomic-status students and immigrants. In line with these results, we also find that autonomous schools increase segregation by socioeconomic and immigrant status. We conclude that autonomous schools have not generated the anticipated system-wide benefits.
    Keywords: autonomous schools, student achievement, school segregation
    JEL: I21 I24 J15
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17462
  2. By: Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent quantitative urban models. These models are sufficiently rich to capture observed features of the data, such as many asymmetric locations and a rich geography of the transport network. Yet these models remain sufficiently tractable as to permit an analytical characterization of their theoretical properties. With only a small number of structural parameters (elasticities) to be estimated, they lend themselves to transparent identification. As they rationalize the observed spatial distribution of economic activity within cities, they can be used to undertake counterfactuals for the impact of empirically-realistic public-policy interventions on this observed distribution. Empirical applications include estimating the strength of agglomeration economies and evaluating the impact of transport infrastructure improvements (e.g., railroads, roads, Rapid Bus Transit Systems), zoning and land use regulations, place-based policies, and new technologies such as remote working.
    JEL: R32 R41 R52
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33130
  3. By: Cai, Liang; Browning, Christopher; Anselin, Luc
    Abstract: Despite considerable focus on clustering as a dimension of segregation and the explosion of big location data, extant literature has not explicitly examined residential segregation and the clustering of segregated space as an influence on mobility. Integrating urban sociological theories and decision science, we test criteria contributing to individuals’ selection of activity neighborhoods. Using a range of spatial data sources, we compare Whites and Blacks’ choice of frequently visited neighborhoods in Chicago, stratified by whether residing in a contiguous segregated space (CSC). Discrete choice models show strong evidence for the impact of clustered residential segregation in individual decision making. All groups are drawn/compelled to White CSC neighborhoods, largely due to the relative institutional, amenity, and safety advantages of these areas. The Black CSC boundary functions as an “invisible wall” to CSC-residing Blacks, limiting their exposure to advantaged White CSC neighborhoods. Whites exhibit a net avoidance to Black-majority spaces, CSC and non-CSC alike. Blacks are drawn to racially homophilous Black neighborhoods, potentially due to social interaction opportunities, spatial knowledge, and prior habits. Results are robust to alternative specifications of choice sets and organizational deficits. Implications for understanding spatial choice in social context and designing de-segregation policies through behavioral “nudges” are discussed.
    Date: 2024–11–22
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:xh7aj
  4. By: Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent research in spatial economics. The field of spatial economics is concerned with the determinants and effects of the location of economic activity in geographic space. It analyses how geographical location shapes the economic activities performed by agents, their interactions with one another, their welfare, and the effects of public policy interventions. Research in this area has benefited from the simultaneous development of new theoretical techniques, new sources of geographic information systems (GIS) data, rapid advances in computing power, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and renewed public policy interest in infrastructure and appropriate policies towards places “left-behind” by globalization and technology. Among the insights from this research are the role of goods and commuting market access in determining location choices; the conditions under which the location of economic activity is characterized by multiple equilibria; the circumstances under which temporary shocks can have permanent effects (hysteresis or path dependence); the heterogeneous and persistent impact of local shocks; the magnitude and spatial decay of agglomeration economics; and the role of both agglomeration forces and endogenous changes in land use in shaping the impact of transport infrastructure improvements.
    JEL: F15 R10 R12
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33125
  5. By: Long, Xianling; Huang, Kaixing; Xu, Shang
    Abstract: Employing a spatial equilibrium model and exploiting staggered solar farm installations across Chinese counties, this study reveals that solar energy development reduces local GDP per capita by an average of 2.7\%. This negative effect, primarily from competition for high-value land, is more pronounced in counties with high land opportunity costs. We observe a 2\% increase in the local population despite lower wages and higher housing prices, implying improvements in local amenities. This paper reframes the resource curse debate by examining the impacts of renewable energy, specifically solar power.
    Keywords: Solar energy, Land competition, Economic growth, Welfare.
    JEL: I31 O13 Q43 Q56 R14
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122651
  6. By: Uysal, Sezgin (Masaryk University); Celebi, Ismail
    Abstract: The study focuses on the temporal differences (30 years on average) between ethnic groups migrating from the Austro-Hungarian Empire to the U.S. between 1850 and 1910. In our study, we argue that the main factor that led to differences in the timing of emigration was the differences in regional economic development of different ethnic groups living in different regions of the Empire. Migration costs: before the 1864 introduction of steam engine technology in transatlantic maritime transport, emigration costs were not affordable for Hungarians and Slovaks due to the sea and land voyage high ticket prices. Therefore, with more resources, Austrians and Czechs could afford to migrate earlier. However, after the introduction of steamship technology and the technological change in ship engines, travel became more affordable due to reduced ticket prices, faster voyages, and increased capacity. This allowed Hungarians and Slovaks from poorer regions to begin migrating in larger numbers as migration became economically feasible. In this study, we utilise a complete count of the U.S. Census records from 1900 and 1910 (Helgertz et al., 2023; Ruggles et al., 2021), which Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS). On the other hand, we utilise economic indicators, which are regional daily wage, GDP per capita income and living standard data for the Austria-Hungary Empire from Cvrcek (2013) and Schulze (2000).
    Date: 2024–11–17
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7vfxn
  7. By: Vij, Akshay; Sharam, Andrea; Baako, Kingsley; Ardeshiri, Ali; Faulkner, Debbie; Washington, Lynette; Reddy, Wejandra; Lowies, Braam
    Abstract: This AHURI research examines how governments can encourage small-scale private investors to provide affordable rental housing. It finds that landlords who follow the positively geared, long-term hold investment (LTHI) model are most likely to be part of affordable housing schemes. The LTHI landlords invest on the basis of positive cashflow earning reliable rental income. In general, they purchase cheaper housing in lower value locations and seek to own their investment property outright by retirement. LTHIs landlords can provide a source of affordable rental housing, but do not tend to lead the creation of new stock. The landlords will participate in affordable housing schemes that maximise the potential for a positive cashflow, and not those based on financial schemes such as negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions. It is important to index rental increases to market rates so that investors who lock-in to long-term schemes are not disincentivised. Focus groups with small-scale landlords who lease their properties to social housing providers (SHPs) found the landlords were unanimous in their support for headlease programs. The advantages for landlords included: - guaranteed rental payments provided cashflow security—such rental guarantees made investors 12 per cent more likely to participate in a scheme - no loss of rent due to vacancy and no need to advertise for new tenants - guaranteed make-good provisions gave confidence that the property would be returned in original condition - reduced administration demands provided peace of mind and a ‘hands free’ approach.
    Date: 2024–11–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4sqwb
  8. By: Hanbat Jeong
    Abstract: This paper introduces a novel spatial interaction model to explore the decision-making processes of two types of agents-a leader and followers-with central and local governments serving as empirical representations. The model accounts for three key features: (i) resource allocations from the leader to the followers and the resulting strategic interactions, (ii) followers' choices across multiple activities, and (iii) interactions among these activities. We develop a network game to examine the micro-foundations of these processes. In this game, followers engage in multiple activities, while the leader allocates resources by monitoring the externalities arising from followers' interactions. The game's unique NE is the foundation for our econometric framework, providing equilibrium measures to understand the short-term impacts of changes in followers' characteristics and their long-term consequences. To estimate the agent payoff parameters, we employ the QML estimation method and examine the asymptotic properties of the QML estimator to ensure robust statistical inferences. Empirically, we investigate interactions among U.S. states in public welfare expenditures (PWE) and housing and community development expenditures (HCDE), focusing on how federal grants influence these expenditures and the interactions among state governments. Our findings reveal positive spillovers in states' PWEs, complementarity between the two expenditures within states, and negative cross-variable spillovers between them. Additionally, we observe positive effects of federal grants on both expenditures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that federal interventions lead to a 6.46% increase in social welfare by increasing the states' efforts on PWE and HCDE. However, due to the limited flexibility in federal grants, their magnitudes are smaller than the proportion of federal grants within the states' total revenues.
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.13810
  9. By: Huq, Umana; Batabyal, Amitrajeet
    Abstract: We analyze inter-city competition between two cities A and B that use taxes to attract heterogeneous members of the creative class. There are three types of creative class members and each type represents a particular occupation. Irrespective of type or occupation, creative class members value local public goods and each city levies a tax to drawn in as many members of the creative class as possible by providing an apposite local public good. In this setting, we accomplish two tasks. First, we describe the equilibrium allocation, i.e., a tax rate for each city and an allocation of creative class members to the two cities. Second, we compare and contrast this equilibrium allocation with the Pareto efficient allocation.
    Keywords: Creative Class, Heterogeneity, Inter-City Competition, Pareto Efficiency, Tax
    JEL: H21 H4 H41 R12
    Date: 2024–07–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122668
  10. By: Matthew E. Kahn; Wen-Chi Liao; Siqi Zheng
    Abstract: The Trump Administration's tariffs created a wedge between mutually beneficial trades between China's producers and U.S. consumers. Moving production to nearby Vietnam allows firms to jump the tariff wall. Within Vietnam, cities closer to China with respect to distance and industrial mix grow faster and attract more FDI. They are increasingly consuming renewable power to fuel their local economy. We study the local air quality gains and the carbon dioxide emissions reductions associated with the growth in regional trade. China’s regional trade increases have important implications for the rise of the system of cities across Asia.
    JEL: F14 R40
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33126
  11. By: Braakmann, Nils
    Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between temperature variations, crime and policing in the UK. Using geocoded administrative data on reported crime, stops and searches and police use of force incidents, combined with daily temperature data at 1km grid-level, results show the same temperature-crime link found in other countries. Against this background, I find evidence for changes in police priorities and search outcomes. While there is no decrease in police effectiveness in searches, there is evidence for ethnic differences, especially affecting Black subjects. Additionally, police use-of-force incidents increase in intensity during hotter periods, leading to higher civilian resistance and injuries.
    Date: 2024–11–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ubf7m
  12. By: Bram De Rock (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Mariia Kovaleva (European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics); Tom Potoms (University of Sussex)
    Date: 2023–11–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:23/35
  13. By: Tian Sisi (Data Analyst)
    Abstract: With the rapid development of information technology and the deepening of global economic integration, the digital economy has become an important engine for driving global economic growth. However, due to differences in resource endowments, economic foundations, policy support and other factors in different regions, the development level of the digital economy shows obvious spatial heterogeneity in different regions. Therefore, it is necessary and of practical signi
    Date: 2024–10–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:chin24:13
  14. By: Celebi, Ismail
    Abstract: Increasing high-speed railway planning in Central Europe and the lack of border effect estimations in this region encouraged a border effect study in this region. With rail transport data collected in 2022, border effects in railway transport between six coun- tries were estimated separately by basing on Czechia and Slovakia. Significant border effects were found between these countries and their neighbours, and these effect were estimated ranging from 0.46 to 0.69 for Czechia, and 0.11 to 0.37 for Slovakia. However, no significant border effect was found between Czechia and Slovakia. These findings support arguments about that countries with common language, culture and history have lower border effects.
    Date: 2024–11–18
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jqctz
  15. By: Rafi, Dilara
    Abstract: The Middle Corridor, a critical trade route connecting Europe and Asia, has gained importance after geopolitical challenges on the alternative routes, the Northern and Southern Corridors. Azerbaijan plays a strategic role in the Middle Corridor, investing in transport infrastructure and fostering regional cooperation. This paper examines Azerbaijan's efforts to enhance its position as a key global transit hub to strengthen its logistical capabilities, contributing to non-oil sector growth and economic diversification. Through regional partnerships, infrastructure projects, and improved multimodal transport systems, the country aims for capitalizing on its strategic location, further integrating into global trade networks. The paper concludes with recommendations for enhancing Azerbaijan's transit potential, emphasizing the need for digital innovations, regulatory reforms, and increased collaboration with corridor countries and global partners.
    Keywords: Middle Corridor, multimodal transport, non-oil sector, economic diversification
    JEL: R4
    Date: 2024–10–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122499
  16. By: Pina-Sánchez, Jose (University of Leeds); Hamilton, Melissa; Tennant, Peter WG
    Abstract: To minimise confounding bias and facilitate the identification of unwarranted disparities, sentencing researchers have traditionally sought to control for as many legal factors as possible. In this article we challenge such approach. Using causal graphs we show how controlling for commonly used variables in the sentencing literature can introduce bias. Instead, we propose a new modelling framework that clarifies which types of controls are necessary to identify different definitions of sentencing disparities. We apply this framework to the estimation of race disparities in the US federal courts and gender disparities in the England and Wales magistrates’ court. We find that the model uncertainty associated to the choice of controls is substantial for gender disparities and for race disparities affecting Hispanic offenders, rendering estimates of the latter inconclusive. Disparities against black offenders are more consistent, although, they are not strong enough to be seen as definitive evidence of racial discrimination.
    Date: 2024–11–17
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ymzsv
  17. By: WOOLFORD Jayne (European Commission - JRC); BACHTROEGLER-UNGER Julia; BURTON Anna; LALANNE Marie (European Commission - JRC); GULDA Krzysztof
    Abstract: This research quantifies the extent to which the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF) supported the provision of education and training relevant to the needs of territories and their smart specialisation (S3) domains in the 2014-2020 programming period.
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139680
  18. By: Elshin, Leonid; Mingulov, Almaz; Mikhalevich, Polina
    Abstract: The main results of the study are the discovered patterns that reveal the features of the sensitivity of regional economic systems of the Volga Federal District to restrictions on the supply of goods from abroad in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation and the strengthening of secondary sanctions on friendly countries implementing foreign economic activities with residents of Russia. The novelty of the study lies in the constructed models for diagnosing the import dependence of the Volga Federal District regions on the gaining momentum of import supplies from the PRC and the assessments of the potential for a slowdown in the economy of the regions of the Volga Federal District implemented on this basis in the context of the predicted localization of import supplies from the People's Republic of China. A special contribution of the authors to the study of the topic is the implemented analysis of theoretical approaches and models of regional economic development in the context of determining the optimal settings for integration into the system of world economic relations, as well as in the analysis of the main trends revealing the features of export-import operations in the Russian Federation and its regions (using the example of the subjects of the Volga Federal District) during the period of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the sample of 2022-2024
    Keywords: import dependence; sanctions pressure; national economy of the Russian Federation; regions of the Volga Federal District; scenario modeling; gross regional product; risks of sustainable development; economic growth; forecasting; modeling
    JEL: C53
    Date: 2024–09–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122706
  19. By: Alex Armand (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Britta Augsburg (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Antonella Bancalari (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Maitreesh Ghatak (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Date: 2023–11–15
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:23/37
  20. By: G. Moreno, Frede; Brique, John Michael
    Abstract: This research manuscript evaluates the effectiveness of local policies and regulations aimed at fostering environmental sustainability and technological innovation. The research investigates key policies governing green and digital transitions, assesses their alignment with national and international standards, and identifies institutional barriers impeding their implementation. Through a comprehensive analysis, the study highlights that while Zamboanga City's frameworks demonstrate a commitment to sustainability and technological advancement, they face challenges such as fragmented governance and limited resources. Strategies proposed to enhance policy coherence and regulatory effectiveness include improving inter-agency coordination, strengthening institutional capacities, and adopting an integrated policy approach. The findings offer critical insights into the existing policy landscape, providing a foundation for enhancing regulatory frameworks to better support green and digital transitions. This research contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable urban development by offering actionable recommendations to address identified gaps and optimize policy effectiveness in Zamboanga City.
    Keywords: Green Transitions, Digital Transformation, Policy Analysis, Regulatory Frameworks, Institutional Barriers
    JEL: M00 O10 Q0
    Date: 2024–08–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122663
  21. By: Carol H. Shiue; Wolfgang Keller
    Abstract: This paper documents persistence in the power of elite families in Central China despite dynastic change. We study the impact of the fall of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) on couples and their descendants (treatment of people), and present evidence on the response of multigenerational family lines to a big shock. Local Ming elites suffered a decline in influence in the short run, but in the long-run their descendants recovered and tightened their grip on power in their role as the elites of the new Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). In contrast to the recovery of family lines, the fall of Ming had a more persistently negative impact on the regions that historically were most strongly negatively affected by the shock (treatment of regions). The paper suggests that the elite reversal is due to trauma caused by Ming destruction that shifted norms towards the most socially respectable career paths based on the civil service exam; these norms were, to a greater degree, intergenerationally transmitted in family lines that suffered more from the destruction in the fall of the Ming dynasty.
    JEL: N35
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33121
  22. By: Herault, Nicolas (University of Bordeaux); Kollmann, Trevor (Swinburne University of Technology); Thomson, Russell (Swinburne University of Technology)
    Abstract: We estimate the causal effect of partisan media on voter behavior by exploiting a natural experiment in which Sky News Australia – a conservative 24-hour news channel – became freely available to 8 million people. Using comprehensive national polling-station-level electoral data and broadcast signal strength variation, we implement a continuous treatment difference-in-differences design comparing voting patterns in areas with and without access to the channel before and after its September 2018 free-to-air launch. We find that exposure to partisan media increased the conservative party's lead by 1.5 percentage points in Australia's 2019 federal election. These findings shed light on the role of partisan media in shaping electoral outcomes by influencing swing voters, not just by affecting who turns out to vote.
    Keywords: partisan news, elections, spatial economics
    JEL: D72 L82 R19
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17452
  23. By: Lidia Cano Pecharroman; Melissa O. Tier; Elke U. Weber
    Abstract: Efforts are needed to identify and measure both communities' exposure to climate hazards and the social vulnerabilities that interact with these hazards, but the science of validating hazard vulnerability indicators is still in its infancy. Progress is needed to improve: 1) the selection of variables that are used as proxies to represent hazard vulnerability; 2) the applicability and scale for which these indicators are intended, including their transnational applicability. We administered an international urban survey in Buenos Aires, Argentina; Johannesburg, South Africa; London, United Kingdom; New York City, United States; and Seoul, South Korea in order to collect data on exposure to various types of extreme weather events, socioeconomic characteristics commonly used as proxies for vulnerability (i.e., income, education level, gender, and age), and additional characteristics not often included in existing composite indices (i.e., queer identity, disability identity, non-dominant primary language, and self-perceptions of both discrimination and vulnerability to flood risk). We then use feature importance analysis with gradient-boosted decision trees to measure the importance that these variables have in predicting exposure to various types of extreme weather events. Our results show that non-traditional variables were more relevant to self-reported exposure to extreme weather events than traditionally employed variables such as income or age. Furthermore, differences in variable relevance across different types of hazards and across urban contexts suggest that vulnerability indicators need to be fit to context and should not be used in a one-size-fits-all fashion.
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.10628
  24. By: Bargain, Olivier B. (Université de Bordeaux); Vincent, Rose Camille (Utrecht School of Economics); Caldeira, Emilie (CERDI, Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: Decentralization, championed by international institutions, has been one of the most prominent public sector reforms of the last decades, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. To date, few studies propose a quasi-experimental evaluation of its capacity to contribute to local development. We exploit the phase-in of decentralization at the commune level in Burkina Faso. We use satellite information on night-time light density as a proxy for local development levels, which has the advantage of being measured and comparable over time and space. The communes that were decentralized first can be compared to the others after the reform relative to the pre-reform situation. The difference-in-difference approach includes commune fixed effects and inverse propensity score reweighting to account for time-varying differences across communes. We find a positive impact of decentralization on the night-light intensity trends of the early-decentralized communes. This is supported by alternative measures (remote sensing of built-up settlements and a welfare index), which shows the possibly broader scope of decentralization gains. We show that decentralization did not lift all boats: only the communes with the ability to generate own-source revenues benefited from effective decentralization.
    Keywords: decentralization, economic development, local development, Africa, Burkina Faso
    JEL: H00 H70 H71 H72 O10
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17459
  25. By: Elshin, Leonid; Mikhalevich, Polina; Mingulov, Almaz
    Abstract: The aim of the work is to develop and test methodological approaches to the empirical assessment of the prospects for regional economic dynamics in the context of disruption of supply chains of industry imports. The object of the study is one of the most developed regions of Russia - the Republic of Tatarstan. The main results of the study are the discovered patterns that reveal the features of the sensitivity of regional industrial complexes to restrictions in the supply of goods from abroad in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation and the strengthening of secondary sanctions on friendly countries implementing foreign economic activity with residents of Russia
    Keywords: sanctions pressure; sustainable economic development; region; import dependence; risks; types of economic activity; economic and mathematical modeling; scenario modeling; forecasting
    JEL: C53
    Date: 2024–09–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122707
  26. By: Gould, Eric D. (Hebrew University, Jerusalem); Lichtinger, Guy (Harvard University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how the "child penalty" associated with career interruptions for women after becoming a mother is influenced by preferences absorbed during childhood, and how the child penalty, in turn, is related to the quantity and quality (education) of her own children. Using linked administrative data on Israeli parents and children, the analysis shows that mothers who grew up in larger and more traditional families marry men from larger families, and together they have more children. Growing up with more siblings is also associated with a larger child penalty for a mother in earnings and employment, as well as in terms of commuting less and moving to "mother friendly" firms at the expense of higher wage firms. The results also indicate that the child penalty produces two opposing effects on child human capital – a negative impact due to the loss of parental income, and a positive influence of increased maternal time away from work. Overall, the evidence suggests that the family preferences and norms absorbed during childhood significantly influence a woman's choices of spouse, fertility, and child penalty later in life – but with little overall impact on her children's high school achievements.
    Keywords: child penalties, child outcomes, family culture
    JEL: J12 J13 J16 J22 J24 J31 J62
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17455
  27. By: Nicolas Cabra-Ruiz; Sandra V. Rozo; Maria Micaela Sviatschi
    Abstract: How does forced displacement shape development in origin countries? We examine the case of Venezuela, where over seven million people have been forcibly displaced. Our study compares municipalities with different proportions of foreign-born populations before and after the international oil price shocks that accelerated forced displacement between 2014 and 2019. Our findings show that municipalities with higher foreign-born populations in 1990, exhibiting greater out-migration from Venezuela after 2014, experienced lower economic development and higher inequality. We shed light on a novel mechanism: forced displacement facilitates the perpetuation of autocratic leaders, further hindering development. It does so by weakening the opposition’s voices and facilitating the expansion of organized crime and illicit sources of income.
    JEL: O10 P0
    Date: 2024–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33131
  28. By: Wang Qunyong (Nankai University)
    Abstract: The peer-effect (or neighbor-effect) model is an important model for studying the mutual in
    Date: 2024–10–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:chin24:11

This nep-ure issue is ©2024 by Steve Ross. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at https://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.