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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent quantitative urban models. These models are sufficiently rich to capture observed features of the data, such as many asymmetric locations and a rich geography of the transport network. Yet these models remain sufficiently tractable as to permit an analytical characterization of their theoretical properties. With only a small number of structural parameters (elasticities) to be estimated, they lend themselves to transparent identification. As they rationalize the observed spatial distribution of economic activity within cities, they can be used to undertake counterfactuals for the impact of empirically-realistic public-policy interventions on this observed distribution. Empirical applications include estimating the strength of agglomeration economies and evaluating the impact of transport infrastructure improvements (e.g., railroads, roads, Rapid Bus Transit Systems), zoning and land use regulations, place-based policies, and new technologies such as remote working. |
| Keywords: | cities, commuting, transportation, urban economics |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2053 |
| By: | Matthias Wrede |
| Abstract: | Housing cooperatives have a significant share in some countries, particularly in urban housing markets, and are supported by municipalities through tax breaks and preferential access to land. We examine the contribution of housing cooperatives to the provision of affordable housing and how they are affected by rent control. For Germany, we find that residents of cooperative housing pay lower rents than for-profit owners, but are still affected by rent control. In particular, we show that stricter limits on rent increases for existing residential leases in tight housing markets have the effect of lowering rents for housing cooperatives, while we find no such effect of rent regulation for for-profit landlords. |
| Keywords: | housing affordability, housing cooperatives, housing tenure, rent control |
| JEL: | P13 R21 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11452 |
| By: | Vasiliki Fouka; Theo Serlin |
| Abstract: | How does economic modernization affect group identity? Modernization theory emphasizes how labor migration led to the adoption of common identities. Yet economic development may reduce incentives to emigrate, preserving local cultures. We study England and Wales during the Second Industrial Revolution, a period characterized by the development of new industries and declines in transportation and communication costs. Using microdata on individuals’ names and migration decisions, we quantify identity change and its variation across space. We develop and estimate a quantitative spatial model in which migration and cultural identities are inter-dependent. Different components of economic modernization had different effects on identity change. Falling migration costs homogenized peripheral regions. In contrast, industrial development led to heterogeneity, increasing the overall prevalence of the culture of London, while also creating local identity holdouts by reducing out-migration from industrializing peripheries. Modernization promotes both national identities and persistent local identities in peripheral regions that industrialize. |
| Keywords: | migration, identity, industrialization |
| JEL: | J61 N33 N63 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11441 |
| By: | Velthuis, Sanne; Le Petit-Guerin, Mehdi; Royer, Jeroen; Leibert, Tim; Cauchi-Duval, Nicolas; Franklin, Rachel S. (Newcastle University); MacKinnon, Danny |
| Abstract: | Over the past ten years or so, concern has mounted about places in the Global North that have been ‘left behind’ by the growth and prosperity experienced in superstar cities and other wealthy regions. This briefing paper summarises the findings from the one of the strands of the ‘Beyond Left Behind Places’ project, which involved quantitative analysis of residential migration patterns in economically ‘left behind’ regions in the UK, France, and Germany during the immediate pre-COVID period. In addition, we conducted qualitative research with residents of economically ‘left behind’ regions in the three countries to get their perceptions. We use national administrative and census data for the three countries to examine whether economically lagging regions tend to lose or gain population through migration, and what age groups are moving in or out. Economic theories often assume that individuals migrate from economically lagging regions to areas offering better economic conditions. But actually, economically lagging regions in the UK, France and Germany generally tend to experience net population inflows. In other words, more people are moving to these regions than are moving out. In fact, when it comes to internal migration (i.e. people moving within the same country), these lagging regions tend to attract more new residents, on average, than more economically successful regions do. |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:t4vbd |
| By: | Elacqua, Gregory; Kutscher, Macarena; Nascimento, Danielle |
| Abstract: | The potential efficacy of centralized school choice systems in reducing inequalities in access to high-quality schools may be hindered by informational frictions. In this paper, we experimentally evaluate a low-cost information intervention in the centralized school admission system (Matrícula Digital) of Recife, Brazil. The intervention modified how school vacancies were initially displayed on the application platform: the treatment group first saw schools listed by quality; the control group first saw them ordered by proximity to the student's home, i.e., the default order. We focus on students applying to first grade, the level with the highest participation rate since all pupils entering the municipal school system must go through this process. We find no overall effect of the school ordering change on the quality of the schools selected. However, when we restrict our analysis to students who live near at least one of the top three schools on the list, we observe a significant positive effect. This effect weakens as distance from home increases. Our findings indicate the importance of school quality in relation to proximity to the students residence. This conclusion is supported by a parental survey conducted after admissions, in which 80% of respondents indicated that proximity was the most important factor in their school choice. These results have considerable implications for the design of effective educational information interventions. |
| JEL: | A20 D12 I24 C93 H75 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13836 |
| By: | Erika Christie Berle; ; ; ; |
| Abstract: | The successful transition toward renewable energies requires public support in areas where their expansion may cause adverse effects. In this context, narratives are crucial as they shape people’s perceptions. This article examines the relationship between onshore wind power and related narratives in regions across Germany. We run a series of spatial regression models on regional newspaper data, and our findings suggest that wind-related topics are more prominent and more neutrally (less angrily) framed in regions with more wind turbines. Public attitudes supporting wind energy expansion correlate with the prominence of related topics in regions’ narrative landscapes. In contrast, support for anti-wind protests does not seem to correlate with the prominence of wind-energy-related topics in regions with higher wind turbine densities. |
| Keywords: | narrative landscapes, wind turbines, regional analysis, regional news, narratives, Germany |
| JEL: | R10 R12 R52 Q28 Q48 Q50 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2438 |
| By: | McKenzie, Rex; Koutny, Christian |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the concept of the hyper-capitalist urban node (HCUN) as a new theoretical framework for understanding how financial capitalism transforms contemporary cities. Through systematic analysis of London's economic, social, and technological changes from 1992 to 2023, we demonstrate that global financial centres have evolved beyond established models of the global city. Drawing on comprehensive longitudinal data, we identify six distinctive characteristics of HCUNs: financial sector dominance, extreme income polarisation, housing financialisation, the political-financial nexus, technological acceleration, and social-spatial transformation. London's empirical evidence demonstrates how these characteristics manifest in concrete terms through dramatic shifts in employment structure, housing markets, income distribution, and spatial organisation. We argue that HCUNs represent not merely a quantitative intensification of existing urban processes, but rather a qualitative shift in how cities function within global capitalism. The analysis reveals fundamental contradictions within the HCUN model, explaining why conventional urban policies often fail to achieve their intended outcomes. Through this research, we advance both theoretical understanding of contemporary urban transformation and methodological approaches to studying it, including the development of the HCUN Index. Our findings demonstrate the need for fundamental innovation in urban theory and governance to address the distinctive challenges posed by financial capitalism's intensifying influence over urban development. |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fhk2c |
| By: | Pedro Carneiro; Yyannu Cruz Aguayo; Francesca Salvati; Norbert Schady |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of classroom rank on children’s learning using a unique experiment from Ecuador. Within each school, students were randomly assigned to classrooms in every grade between kindergarten and 6th grade. Students with the same ability can have different classroom ranks because of the (random) peer composition of their classroom. Children with higher beginning-of-grade classroom rank have significantly higher test scores at the end of that grade. The impact of classroom rank is larger for younger children and grows over time. Higher classroom rank also improves executive function, child happiness, and teacher perceptions of student ability. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11456 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Simon Fuchs; Illenin O. Kondo; Helene Maghin |
| Abstract: | We show how local worker flow adjustment margins yield a theory-consistent sufficient statistic approximating the welfare effects of local shocks. Furthermore, we isolate a city’s insurance value as this approximation’s second-order term. Leveraging rich labor flows data across occupations, industries, and cities in France, we estimate spatial and non-spatial flows responses to local labor demand shocks. Less economically diverse French cities experience deeper contractions in gross outflows following negative shocks. In contrast, more economic concentration begets a modestly larger increase in gross worker flows following positive shocks. Altogether, we uncover a sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity. |
| Keywords: | Sufficient statistics; Welfare; Concentration; Economic diversity; Labor flows |
| JEL: | J61 J62 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99165 |
| By: | João R. Ferreira; Wayne Aaron Sandholtz; Wayne Sandholtz |
| Abstract: | We use administrative data to measure sibling spillovers on academic performance before and after Tanzania’s introduction of Free Secondary Education (FSE). Prior to FSE, students whose older siblings narrowly passed the secondary school entrance exam were less likely to go to secondary school themselves; with FSE, the effect became positive. A triple differences analysis, using geographic variation in FSE exposure, shows that FSE caused the reversal. Negative pre-FSE spillovers were concentrated in poorer regions. Positive post-FSE spillovers were largest for lower-performing younger siblings. Our results demonstrate that FSE alleviated financial constraints, allowing families to distribute educational investments more equitably rather than concentrating resources on high-performing children. |
| Keywords: | sibling spillovers, free secondary education, intra-household allocation, resource constraints, high-stakes exams, Tanzania |
| JEL: | I25 O15 D13 I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11436 |
| By: | Nicola Stalder; Lukas Hauck; Simon Buechler; Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distributional consequences of rent regulation. We estimate counterfactual free market rents for households benefiting from rent control in their current tenancy. The gap between the paid rent and free market rent represents the benefit that a household draws from the rent control policy. We document how this measure is allocated along various household characteristics, providing novel evidence on the distributional consequences of rent control policies. Our results show that rent control mainly benefits older renters at the expense of younger ones. |
| Keywords: | Distributional Consequences; Housing demand; Rent Regulation; Residential Real Estate Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-253 |
| By: | Minahil Asim; Ronak Jain; Vatsal Khandelwal |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of communicating student-specific teacher expectations on academic performance. We randomize whether students (a) receive high-performance expectations, (b) are additionally paired with a classmate for encouragement, (c) receive information about past performance, or (d) receive no message. Expectations increase math scores by 0.19σ, with especially large effects among students who randomly received ambitious expectations and were predicted to performpoorly. Information provision has comparably large effects (0.16σ), particularly in schools with low parental literacy. However, pairing students only improves scores when peers have similar characteristics. Our findings highlight low-cost, sustainable ways of leveraging teachers to improve performance. |
| Keywords: | Expectations, information, peer effects, motivation, performance |
| JEL: | D91 D84 I24 I25 C93 D83 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:454 |
| By: | Baker, Emma; Beer, Andrew; Leishman, Chris; Vij, Akshay; Stone, Wendy; Morey, Claire; Veeroja, Piret; Indraratna, Kavishka; Dunn, James R; Pomeroy, Steve |
| Abstract: | Three out of five Australian renters say they expect they will never own their own home — a significant shift that requires rethinking of tax and housing systems so that governments’ support all Australians in a two tier housing market (of owners and renters) into retirement, according to new AHURI research. The policy challenge is to make renting a good, long-term housing outcome for renters, particularly lower-income, older renters with limited superannuation. The research highlights that in the Australian Housing Aspirations (AHA) survey a large majority (78%) of private rental tenants aspired to own their own home, while the research survey found three out of five (59%) private renters don’t think they will ever be able to afford to buy a home of their own. Currently, homeowners receive tax concessions that are not available to renters. Examples include no capital gains tax on the sale of the primary residence (which becomes a form of wealth accumulation) and no tax on the imputed rental income of owner occupied housing. Conversely, renters are required to pay rent after income tax. A fairer housing and tax system (for retirement investment) could see some lower income private renters compensated for living long-term in the sector. This support could come through the provision of non-property investment opportunities (to reduce households’ need to 'rentvest') or targeted superannuation benefits. Sustained underinvestment in social housing stock has also had long-term negative implications for all Australians and additional public housing construction is needed as a priority, together with policies to support private developers increasing the supply of affordable housing. In addition, a more immediate goal for policy development is to reform legislation controlling private tenancies so as to have better protections for tenants. |
| Date: | 2024–10–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ftqx6 |
| By: | Deborah Leshinsky; Robert Simons |
| Abstract: | Tel Aviv boasts a diverse population. The beaches are clean and full of white sand. Its UNESCO designated Bauhaus architecture has won the city the title: “The White City.” This article concentrates on the relationship between noise and the vibrant city of Tel Aviv. This study quantifies the effect of noise on the sale prices of Tel Aviv. This paper demonstrates the negative attributes of noise on the sales value of property values. Negative attributes include but not limited to: School and kindergarten noise, dust and pollution, Active construction, places of worship such as Mosques and location to hospitals and supermarkets. A technique to add originality to this paper is by implementing innovative modelling and estimation techniques. For example a major criticism on hedonic modelling refers to lack of empirical arguments which would account for key demand and local economic drivers. The database will include 100, 000 hedonic values. Theoretically speaking this paper attempts to explore the different noise levels on the sales market of Tel Aviv. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic Values; Negative attributes; Noise levels; Property Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-260 |
| By: | Adamopoulou, Effrosyni (ZEW); Cao, Yaming (ZEW); Kaya, Ezgi (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | We use the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to explore how high school peers' grit, a personality trait characterized by perseverance and passion, influences long-term outcomes. Exploiting random variation within schools across cohorts, we find that peer grit significantly increases future earnings, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. We identify two key mechanisms: an increased likelihood of employment in jobs aligned with career goals and a reduced probability of feeling overwhelmed by difficulties. Additionally, peer grit leads to higher job satisfaction and asset accumulation. Thus, peer grit's effects extend beyond short-term educational performance and persist into adulthood. |
| Keywords: | grit, peer effects, long-term outcomes, Add Health |
| JEL: | I24 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17446 |
| By: | Felipe Dutra Calainho; Alex van de Minne |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate whether quantile price indices for residential real estate possess specific percentiles that drive others. The data used is composed of 133, 108 residential real estate transactions from Warsaw, Poland, spanning from 2005 to 2022. To address the inherent noise and volatility in real estate data, characterized by thin markets and asset heterogeneity, we test four distinct quantile index methodologies. These include a standard quantile index, a frequency conversion technique via the Generalized Inverse Estimator (Bokhari and Geltner, 2010), a Recentered Influence Function (RIF) approach (Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux, 2009), and a combined method utilizing both the frequency conversion and RIF technique. To investigate the existence of leading percentiles, we use a Lag-weighted Lasso Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with a two-quarter lag. Our findings indicate that the combined method yields the most stable quantile index. Further analysis reveals that the 70th percentile is the leading indicator, as evidenced by non-zero VAR coefficients for this percentile alone. This suggests heightened informational efficiency among economic agents within this percentile, likely due to increased financing risk and transaction values. This research contributes to understanding the dynamics of real estate markets and the predictive power of quantile indices. |
| Keywords: | Leading indicators; Machine Learning; Quantile Index; Time Series |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-259 |
| By: | Saija Toivonen |
| Abstract: | Real estate market actors are navigating in an increasingly challenging market environment where volatility of changes, interconnected drivers and ambiguity of impacts are typical characteristics. As one crisis after another has followed, the traditional probability-based and narrow scoped risk management has been found to be inadequate to cope with the constantly changing landscape of possible risks. Therefore, there is an urgent need to recognize not only the most probable future threats born in the real estate market environment itself but also shed light on the underlying and creeping drivers originating from the different domains of society that can cause crises and lead to a variety of negative impacts on real estate, space and land use. The aim of this study is to increase the understanding of the black swan type of events and their impacts on the real estate market environment. Black swans possess low probability, but their impacts are considered highly significant when realized. Our focus is on the identification of both direct and indirect impacts. We employ a futures-oriented research approach to reveal the possible black swans of the future and utilize the futures wheel method to analyze their impacts in multidisciplinary workshops, together with experts representing academia and practice. The findings of this study contribute to understanding what the low probability events are that hold the potential for significant impacts in the real estate market environment. Our findings serve as a starting point for developing more holistic risk management and resilience building in the field of real estate. |
| Keywords: | resilience, futures studies, risk management, black swans |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-256 |
| By: | Yulia Evsyukova; Felix Rusche; Wladislaw Mill |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of discrimination on Black individuals’ job networks across the U.S. using a two-stage field experiment with 400+ fictitious LinkedIn profiles. In the first stage, we vary race via AI-generated images only and find that Black profiles’ connection requests are 13 percent less likely to be accepted. Based on users’ CVs, we find widespread discrimination across social groups. In the second stage, we exogenously endow Black and White profiles with the same networks and ask connected users for career advice. We find no evidence of direct discrimination in information provision. However, when taking into account differences in the composition and size of networks, Black profiles receive substantially fewer replies. Our findings suggest that gatekeeping is a key driver of Black-White disparities. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, job networks, labor markets, field experiment |
| JEL: | J71 J15 C93 J46 D85 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11433 |
| By: | Woongchan Jeon; Lint Barrage; Kieran James Walsh |
| Abstract: | How are financial markets responding to anticipated climate-driven wildfire risk increases? Combining high-resolution meteorological predictions and land use pattern maps with detailed US municipal bond data, this paper finds that municipalities facing higher future wildfire risk increases are already having to pay substantially higher borrowing costs as a result. A one standard deviation increase in future wildfire exposure is associated with a 23-basis point rise in school district bond spreads, corresponding to 42% of the sample mean. Borrowing cost impacts are significantly larger in areas with higher minority population shares and heavier reliance on local revenue sources. |
| Keywords: | wildfires, climate risk, municipal bond, fiscal costs of climate change |
| JEL: | G12 H74 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11447 |
| By: | Martin Haran; Michael McCord; Olawumi Fadeyi |
| Abstract: | The London office market is a primary destination for international real estate capital and a key global city and financial centre for international real estate investment. However, the increase in global uncertainties in recent years due to political events and economic and inflationary challenges highlights the need for more insights into the behaviour of international real estate capital flows. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the global and domestic environment on international real estate investment activities within the London office market over the period 20016–2023, concentrating on the separation of the UK from Europe due to the Brexit referendum, which seemingly have influenced investment flow patterns in and out of London. We employ an auto-regressive distributed lag approach using quarterly MSCI cross-border investment transactions within the central London office market for the period 2016-2023. We measure both long-run and short-run co-integrating effects and causality relative to Long-term interest rates, real effective exchange rates, total returns and yields from the London office market, GDP, Stock Market Capitalisation, the VIX index and Global Liquidity. |
| Keywords: | Brexit; Capital Flows into Real Estate; International Property Investment Trends; London Offices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-257 |
| By: | Adriana Amieva; Agust\'in Bonifacio; Pablo Neme |
| Abstract: | We examine the problem of assigning teachers to public schools over time when teachers have tenured positions and can work simultaneously in multiple schools. To do this, we investigate a dynamic many-to-many school choice problem where public schools have priorities over teachers and teachers hold substitutable preferences over subsets of schools. We introduce a new concept of dynamic stability that recognizes the tenured positions of teachers and we prove that a dynamically stable matching always exists. We propose the Tenured-Respecting Deferred Acceptance $(TRDA)$ mechanism, which produces a dynamically stable matching that is constrained-efficient within the class of dynamically stable matchings and minimizes unjustified claims. To improve efficiency beyond this class, we also propose the Tenured-Respecting Efficiency-Adjusted Deferred Acceptance $(TREADA)$ mechanism, an adaptation of the Efficiency-Adjusted Deferred Acceptance mechanism to our dynamic context. We demonstrate that the outcome of the $TREADA$ mechanism Pareto-dominates any dynamically stable matching and achieves efficiency when all teachers consent. Additionally, we examine the issue of manipulability, showing that although the $TRDA$ and $TREADA$ mechanisms can be manipulated, they remain non-obviously dynamically manipulable under specific conditions on schools' priorities. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.07851 |
| By: | Daryl Fairweather; Matthew E. Kahn; Robert D. Metcalfe; Sebastian Sandoval Olascoaga |
| Abstract: | Climate change presents new risks for property in the United States. Due to the high cost and sometimes unavailability of location-specific property risk data, home buyers can greatly benefit from acquiring knowledge about these risks. To explore this, a large-scale nationwide natural field experiment was conducted through Redfin to estimate the causal impact of providing home-specific flood risk information on the behavior of home buyers in terms of their search, bidding, and purchasing decisions. Redfin randomly assigned 17.5 million users to receive information detailing the flood risk associated with the properties they searched for on the platform. Our analysis reveals several key findings: (1) the flood risk information influences every stage of the house buying process, including the initial search, bidding activities, and final purchase; (2) individuals are willing to make trade-offs concerning property amenities in order to own a property with a lower flood risk; (3) the impact of the flood risk information on behavior is more pronounced for users conducting searches in high flood risk areas, but does not differ significantly between buyers in Republican and Democrat Counties; and (4) the information resulted in changes to property prices and altered the market's hedonic equilibrium, providing a new finding that climate adaptation can be forward-thinking and proactive. |
| JEL: | Q54 R2 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33119 |
| By: | Jaramillo Lizana, Jet Li Jorkaef |
| Abstract: | Regional inequality in Peru represents one of the most significant challenges to achieving sustainable economic growth and social cohesion. This paper explores the historical, economic, social, and institutional causes of regional disparities, examining how geography and resource distribution have led to uneven development across the country. Drawing on the historical legacy of colonialism, the analysis reveals how extractive economic models and centralized governance have perpetuated inequality, disproportionately affecting rural and indigenous regions such as the Andean highlands and the Amazon basin. The study assesses the economic effects of regional inequality, including its impact on national growth, labor market inefficiencies, and vulnerability to external shocks. Social effects are examined in terms of reduced social cohesion, internal migration, and increased social conflicts, particularly in areas rich in natural resources. The paper also evaluates the implications for human development, focusing on gaps in education, healthcare, and quality of life that perpetuate cycles of poverty and limit opportunities for upward mobility. To address these disparities, the paper proposes several strategies aimed at promoting inclusive development. These include investment in sustainable infrastructure to improve connectivity and access to resources, economic diversification to reduce dependence on volatile extractive sectors, strengthening of education and healthcare services to bridge social gaps, and enhancing regional governance to optimize decentralization and resource management. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of reducing regional inequality for the sustainable development of Peru. It argues that equitable development is essential for fostering national unity, economic resilience, and social well-being. Future research directions are also identified, including the impact of climate change on regional inequality, the role of digital technology in bridging gaps, and the potential for community-based approaches to resource management. By understanding and addressing the root causes of inequality, Peru can lay the foundation for a more inclusive and prosperous future for all its citizens. |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j2mns |
| By: | Korneliusz Pylak; Jason Deegan; Tom Broekel; ; |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the phenomenon of mimicry in the selection of economic domains for Smart Specialisation Strategies (S3) and discusses the regional policy implications of strategic mimicry. By analysing S3 documents from European regions, we identify and distinguish between two general types of mimicry: ‘Follow the Peers’ and ‘Follow the Role Models, ’ against the more desirable ‘Follow the Indicators’ priority selection strategy. Our findings reveal that although regions rely on their strengths by following the crucial indicators, thus exhibiting non-mimetic behaviour, there is a stronger tendency for regions to mimic popular domain portfolios, particularly those chosen by neighbouring regions and national strategies. Understanding these patterns in the selection of priority domains helps decision-makers balance mimicry and diversification, promoting specialization, new economic activities, and regional uniqueness. |
| Keywords: | smart specialisation, regional strategy, regional policy, innovation policy, mimicry |
| JEL: | O25 O38 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2439 |
| By: | Grönqvist, Hans (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Niknami, Susan (Stockholm University); Palme, Mårten (Department of Economics, Stockholm University); Priks, Mikael (Department of Economics, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children’s short- and long-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that the incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen criminal convictions, a decrease in high school graduation, and worse labor market outcomes in adulthood. The effects are concentrated among children from disadvantaged families, in particular families where the remaining non-convicted parent is disadvantaged. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behavior in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets and progressive criminal justice systems. |
| Keywords: | Crime; Parental incarceration; Childrens outcomes; School graduation; Labor market |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1509 |
| By: | Tobias Grohmann (University of Groningen and GLO) |
| Abstract: | Theory suggests that cultural similarity of countries increases migration flows between them. This paper brings best practices from the trade gravity literature to migration and tests this prediction. In my preferred specification, I use lags of time-varying similarity variables in a panel of international and domestic migration flows (>200 countries, 1990–2019, 5-year in- tervals) and estimate a theory-consistent structural gravity model with origin-year, destination-year, and corridor fixed effects. The results do not show the hypothesized positive effect of cultural similarity on migration. Instead, religious similarity has a significant nega- tive effect on migration, while WVS-based attitudinal similarities regarding individualism, indulgence, and trust are insignificant. Additional results suggest that cultural selection and sorting can explain these findings, where migrants are attracted by destinations that are cul- turally similar to their personal cultural beliefs rather than the average cultural beliefs of their home country. Results of a two-stage fixed effects (TSFE) procedure and a gravity-specific matching estimator, which both allow the estimation of time-invariant similarity variables, confirm that the relationship between cultural similarity and migration is more nuanced than previously thought. |
| Keywords: | international migration, culture, gravity model of migration |
| JEL: | F22 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:404 |
| By: | Sabrina Di Addario; Zhexin Feng; Michel Serafinelli |
| Abstract: | This paper presents direct evidence on how firms’ innovation is affected by access to knowledgeable labor through co-worker network connections. We use a unique dataset that matches patent data to administrative employer–employee records from "Third Italy"—a region with many successful industrial clusters. Establishment closures displacing inventors generate supply shocks of knowledgeable labor to firms that employ the inventors’ previous co-workers. We estimate event-study models where the treatment is the displacement of a "connected" inventor (i.e., a previous coworker of a current employee of the focal firm). We show that the displacement of a connected inventor significantly increases connected inventors’ hiring. Moreover, the improved access to knowledgeable workers raises firms innovative activity. We provide evidence supporting the main hypothesized channel of knowledge transfer through firm-to-firm labor mobility by estimating IV specifications where we use the displacement of a connected inventor as an instrument to hire a connected inventor. Overall, estimates indicate that firms exploit displacements to recruit connected inventors and the improved capacity to employ knowledgeable labor within the network increases innovation. |
| Keywords: | social connections, firm-to-firm labor mobility, patents, establishment closure |
| JEL: | J60 O30 J23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11432 |
| By: | Donghoon Lee; Daniel Mangrum; Wilbert Van der Klaauw; Crystal Wang |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of financial education on credit decisions during COVID-19. The pandemic presented economic challenges, but policy responses provided opportunities for savvy borrowers. Using variation in state-mandated financial education during high school, we find that mandated borrowers reduced their credit card balances by larger amounts after stimulus checks were distributed and were more likely to buy homes and to refinance mortgages at low rates during the pandemic. The larger credit card balance reduction was driven by middle-income areas and subprime borrowers, while prime borrowers drove mortgage refinancing. Our findings underscore the importance of financial education for economic resilience. |
| Keywords: | financial education; high school curriculum; financial decision-making; household debt; COVID-19 pandemic |
| JEL: | D14 G51 G53 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:99058 |
| By: | Stephen Machin; Matteo Sandi; Steve Machin |
| Abstract: | Research studying connections between crime and education is a prominent aspect of the big increase of publication and research interest in the economics of crime field. This work demonstrates a crime reducing impact of education, which can be interpreted as causal through leveraging research designs (e.g., based on education policy changes) that ensure the direction of causality flows from education to crime. A significant body of research also explores in detail, and in various directions, the means by which education has a crime reducing impact. This includes evidence on incapacitation versus productivity raising aspects of education, and on the quality of schooling at different stages of education, ranging from early age interventions, through primary and secondary schooling and policy changes that alter school dropout age. From this evidence base, there are education policies that have been effective crime prevention tools in many settings around the world. |
| Keywords: | crime, education |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11450 |
| By: | Dieter Rebitzer; Maximilian Nothhelfer; Franka Lange |
| Abstract: | The transformation process of retail property requires expertise in retail, property, and construction law. Three research questions are posed using the case study method: 1) How did the rise and fall of large retail properties and the resulting numerous vacancies in prominent locations come about? 2) How have former retail properties been re-utilised in the past? 3) What should a structured process for value-retaining re-utilisation look like? The study analyses the success factors based on twelve case studies of successful reuse concepts. The results are used to formulate and test a four-phase model for successful re-utilisation concepts, which is then presented using a specific practical example. This involves an iterative consolidation of all the analysed information into the final concept. The model has been tried and tested in practice and is internationally transferable. The study is aimed at owners and investors as well as cities, business development organisations, city marketing, and similar interest groups that are affected by retail closures. |
| Keywords: | Property Development; Retail Property; sustainability; Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-254 |
| By: | Lev Razumovskiy; Mariya Gerasimova; Nikolay Karenin; Mikhail Safro |
| Abstract: | This article presents a mathematical model of dynamic pricing for real estate (RE) that incorporates multiple pricing groups, thereby expanding the capabilities of existing models. The developed model solves the problem of maximizing aggregate cumulative revenue at the end of the sales period while meeting the revenue and sales goals. A method is proposed for distributing aggregate cumulative revenue goals across different RE pricing groups. The model is further modified to account for the time value of money and the real estate value increase as construction progresses. The algorithm for constructing a pricing policy for multiple pricing groups is described, and numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate how the algorithm operates. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.07732 |
| By: | Circella, Giovanni PhD; Iogansen, Xiatian; Matson, Grant; Makino, Keita; Malik, Jai K. PhD; Lee, Youngsung PhD |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes the findings from ten sets of analyses that investigated ways the COVID-19 pandemic transformed people's activity-travel patterns. Data were collected through three waves of surveys in Spring 2020, Fall 2020, and Summer 2021 in California and the rest of the US. We found that there was a substantial shift among California workers from physical commuting to exclusive remote work in 2020, followed by a transition to hybrid working schedules by Summer 2021. The adoption of remote work and hybrid work varied significantly among population subgroups, with higher income, more educated individuals, and urban residents showing the greatest shift to these arrangements. In terms of mode use and vehicle ownership, increased concerns about the use of shared modes of travel correlated with an increasing desire to own a car. We observed a major decrease in walking for commuting purposes and a significant increase in walking and biking for non-work trips. The study also found a reduction in the demand for, and/or an elevated aversion to, ridehailing because of the shared nature of the service. Regarding shopping patterns, the study found a nearly five-fold increase in the number of respondents who shopped online at least once per week between Fall 2019 and Spring 2020. However, part of this increase vanished by Fall 2020. Overall, the pandemic brought both temporary changes and longer-term impacts. The study proposes strategies to promote sustainable transportation and social equity among different population groups as communities strive to recover from the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, COVID-19, mobility, travel behavior, activity choices, online shopping, telecommuting, data collection |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2102b2zq |
| By: | Mitchell, Ross E. |
| Abstract: | The FY 2024 HMIS Data Standards (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2024), which were implemented on October 1, 2023, across the Los Angeles Continuum of Care (LA CoC), introduced a fundamental change to how persons experiencing homelessness (PEH) may claim their racial and ethnic identities. No longer are race (American Indian/Alaska Native/Indigenous, Asian/Asian American, Black/African American/African, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, White) and Hispanic/Latina/e/o ethnicity recorded separately. Instead, they are all options from which one or more may be claimed as an ethnoracial identity, and they include an additional Middle Eastern/North African category among the list of options. It is no longer necessary to claim or reject a racial category for oneself to claim a solely Hispanic/Latina/e/o ethnic identity, which means that the current and prior schemes for ethnoracial identity are neither equivalent nor directly comparable. |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zemr5 |
| By: | Matteo Crosignani; Saketh Prazad |
| Abstract: | We show that banks “extended-and-pretended” their impaired CRE mortgages in the post-pandemic period to avoid writing off their capital, leading to credit misallocation and a buildup of financial fragility. We detect this behavior using loan-level supervisory data on maturity extensions, bank assessment of credit risk, and realized defaults for loans to property owners and REITs. Extend-and-pretend crowds out new credit provision, leading to a 4.8–5.3 percent drop in CRE mortgage origination since 2022:Q1 and fuels the amount of CRE mortgages maturing in the near term. As of 2023:Q4, this “maturity wall” represents 27 percent of bank capital. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; zombie lending; financial fragility; credit misallocation |
| JEL: | G21 E51 R33 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:99057 |
| By: | Blattman, Christopher (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | International drug trafficking dominates the conversation on organized crime, but equally common and serious are urban systems of organized crime—criminal groups focused not on exports or transshipment, but on dominating local markets, neighborhoods, and politics. When policymakers do pay attention to this problem, they consistently make the same mistake—believing there are best practices. But systems of organized crime are not all alike. There is no one blueprint or general solution, and so following the latest fad is unlikely to deliver the desired result. Instead of trying to copy the quasi-mythological success of a Giuliani or Bukele, policymakers need to understand what kind of organized crime problem they have, what capabilities their city possesses, and what tools are appropriate to the circumstances. This paper looks in-depth at how organized crime is organized in three cities: Chicago, Medellín, and San Salvador. It also considers New York, Bogotá, and Port-au-Prince. I argue that the primary driver of their organization and incentives is their source of criminal revenues. A second major driver of behavior is the degree of criminal political organization, which broadly-speaking takes three forms: atomized individuals, fragmented groups, and competing confederations. These forms are not just the product of their revenues, but are also the result of decades of competition with the state and one another. What policy tools will work hinges on this diagnosis. I look at the evidence for a range of standard policies—from crackdowns to street outreach—and explain why we can expect them to have wildly different impacts depending on the context. |
| Date: | 2024–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ghcpj |
| By: | Vladimir Kozlov (Leibniz-Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS)); Ekaterina Sokolova (Eurasian Technological University Kazakhstan); Olga Veselovskaya (Eurasian Technological Universit Kazakhstan); Daria Saitova (Eurasian Technological Universit Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | A significant part of Russian migrants, who fled the country after February 2022, are qualified professionals, and almost half have moved with their partners and children. For them, the social capital required for integration in the host country is closely linked to family issues and daily routines. Defining social capital as a combination of relationships and attitudes, this study examines the role of employment, children, and gender in its development after migration. Empirical data were obtained from online surveys conducted among Russian migrants around the world, as well as among those who stayed in Russia. Quantitative analysis of the data shows that employment, children, and gender are related to the formation of migrants' social capital. In addition to the role of employment, we show that in migration women are more sociable and open to interaction, and having children widens their social circle and increases the number of acquaintances, which in turn contributes to the formation of social capital. Based on the above, it can be concluded that migrant families with children have a great potential for integration into the host society. |
| Keywords: | Migration, social capital, integration, families, gender |
| JEL: | F22 J12 J13 J15 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:405 |
| By: | Carlo Medici |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that immigration fostered the emergence of organized labor in the United States. I digitize archival data to construct the first county-level dataset on historical U.S. union membership and use a shift-share instrument to isolate a plausibly exogenous shock to the labor supply induced by immigration, between 1900 and 1920. Counties with higher immigration experienced an increase in the probability of having labor unions, the number of union branches, the share of unionized workers, and the number of union members per branch. This increase occurred more prominently among skilled workers, particularly in counties more exposed to labor competition from immigrants, and in areas with less favorable attitudes towards immigration. Taken together, these results are consistent with existing workers forming and joining labor unions for economic as well as social motivations. The findings highlight a novel driver of unionization in the early 20th-century United States: in the absence of immigration, the average share of unionized workers during this period would have been 22% lower. The results also identify an unexplored consequence of immigration: the development of institutions aimed at protecting workers’ status in the labor market, with effects that continue into the present. |
| Keywords: | labor unions, immigration, labor market competition, discrimination |
| JEL: | J15 J50 J70 N31 N32 P10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11437 |
| By: | Cremaschi, Marco; Vitale, Tommaso Prof (Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | An examination of public space provides insights into the disconnection between regulation and reception within the Parisian context. The visibility of refugees in public spheres has been instrumental in heightening civic consciousness in Paris. Simultaneously, it serves as a subject of political apprehension and an opportunity for the display of state-inflicted violence by humanitarian NGOs, too. The governance of public open spaces extends beyond traditional command and control approaches, emphasizing delegation, integration of new knowledge and technologies, negotiation, and self-regulation. The central concern involves an evolving, albeit ambiguous and partially contradictory, process of outsourcing certain aspects of reception policies without a well-experienced governance mode (Artioli, Le Galès, 2023). The first section describes the relevant social geography of Paris. Social transformations due to deindustrialization have left a lasting impact, concentrating immigrant populations in areas marked by blue-collar workers and social housing estates. While Paris actively engages in social and redistributive policies, achieving a balanced geographical distribution for diverse social groups remains a challenge. The ensuing section delineates the social policy responsibilities of both central and local institutions, against the backdrop of which the handling of refugees has transformed into a separate specific policy domain. Despite ongoing collaboration in Paris, challenges endure due to the stance of the French government and the inadequate coordination within the EU. The following three sections analyse the role of space in framing the reception policies of Paris, paying reference to different ways of framing the space: - The so-called ‘Project Territories’ of the EU Structural Funds exhibit a progressive drift where coalitions of territorial actors reinterpret national rules following their competencies (and expertise). - Locally managed reception comes to a standstill in the face of state normative injunctions. - Government authorities and local actors consciously use space for repressive purposes, even to manage conflicts between potentially incompatible uses. The conclusions deal with the evolving landscape of local reception policies driven by state and non-state actors. Despite innovative efforts, there is a lack of coherence, and central dispersion policies (Dollet, 2023) contradict local commitments, raising questions about the role of local governance. However, the cyclical coming and going between the dismantling of refugee camps and sheltering asylum seekers question the notion and scope of integration, highlighting the porous boundary between formal and informal regulations. Besides, the design of policies cannot underestimate the role of space in shaping welcoming practices. |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z2dur |
| By: | Bou, Da; Sran, Louth; Teu, Samruom; Tep, Chhivrath; Kheuy, Sinoeurn; Vy, Savuth; Dul, Vanny |
| Abstract: | This case study, a collaborative investigation into the self-assessment of student teachers' self-directed learning in the Battambang Teacher Education College (BTEC) teacher education program, provides valuable insights. The study employs both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Data was collected through surveys and open-ended questions with 187 BTEC student teachers. The findings revealed that student teachers actively engaged in reflective self-assessment practices, enabling them to identify improvement areas and develop personalized learning strategies. However, limited time, lack of mentorship, and inadequate institutional support could have helped their ability to fully direct their learning. The study provides practical recommendations to BTEC program administrators on enhancing the support and resources offered to student teachers, such as increasing mentorship opportunities and improving institutional support, to promote their autonomous learning and professional development. These recommendations are designed to be actionable and can be implemented to improve the BTEC teacher education program. The collaborative research contributes to the ongoing efforts to improve teacher education and equip future educators to meet the evolving demands of the modern classroom, making the audience feel included and part of the solution. |
| Date: | 2024–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uq8t3 |
| By: | Lu, Hongyu; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | In this study, a modeling framework was developed to generate high-resolution synthetic fleets, for use with synthetic household modeling in activity-based travel models, by integrating various data sources. The synthetic households were generated by pairing household locations and demographic attributes, and synthetic fleets were assigned to the households so that travel demand model outputs would have vehicles associated with each model-predicted tour for energy and emissions analysis. The CO emissions were modeled for each vehicle and each link traversed by vehicles as predicted by the travel demand model, and the results of the synthetic fleet (by employing Monte Carlo simulations and Bootstrap techniques) were compared with those from standard regional and sub-regional fleet configurations. The results demonstrated that using a traditional sub-regional fleet scenario produced 30% higher predicted emissions than when the synthetic fleet was employed with predicted vehicle trips, and that using a regional average fleet (applied throughout the region) produced emissions that were more than 50% higher than synthetic fleet emissions. Lowest household emissions were associated with low-income and non-working households, and highest emissions were associated with moderate-income households and one-person high income household groups. The results presented in the research are not necessarily conclusive, because the licensed vehicle data procured for Atlanta appear to be biased toward older vehicles. Model year penetration rates are accounted for in these analyses, but the authors believe that the variability in the registration mix for newer vehicles is likely underestimated in the data procured for these analyses. The authors conclude that access to statewide registration data will be required to remove potential biases that exist in licensed private data sets. Nevertheless, the study does demonstrate that properly pairing vehicle model years with the most active households (and their daily trips) significantly impacts energy and emissions analysis. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Synthetic Household, Synthetic Fleet, Emission Modeling, Travel Demand Model |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt20h266r6 |
| By: | Christina M. Andersen; Jørgen Brandt; Jesper H. Christensen; Lise M. Frohn; Camilla Geels; Timo Hener; Marianne Simonsen; Lars Skipper |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of daily outdoor air pollution variation on student test scores. Using Danish register data for all elementary and lower secondary students, we link home addresses to a 1 km x 1 km pollution grid to measure test day and lifetime pollution exposure. An increase in fine particles (PM2.5) from a very clean to an average day reduces math scores by 1.8% and reading by 0.9% of a standard deviation. Even at low pollution levels, student performance is harmed, especially in math. We find no evidence of heterogeneity by health, socio-economic status, or lifetime exposure. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, cognition, test scores |
| JEL: | Q53 I21 I18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11434 |
| By: | Anger, Silke (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Bassetto, Jacopo (University of Bologna); Sandner, Malte (Technische Hochschule Nürnberg) |
| Abstract: | While Western countries worry about labor shortages, their institutional barriers to skill transferability prevent immigrants from fully utilizing foreign qualifications. Combining administrative and survey data in a difference-in-differences design, we show that a German reform, which lifted these barriers for non-EU immigrants, led to a 15 percent increase in the share of immigrants with a recognized foreign qualification. Consequently, non-EU immigrants' employment and wages in licensed occupations (e.g., doctors) increased respectively by 18.6 and 4 percent, narrowing the gaps with EU immigrants. Despite the inflow of non-EU immigrants in these occupations, we find no evidence of crowding out or downward wage pressure for natives. |
| Keywords: | skill transferability, occupational recognition, immigrant integration |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J62 F22 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17444 |
| By: | Yannick Bury; Lars P. Feld |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study whether local spending of intergovernmental grants is influenced by mayoral elections in the grant receiving municipality. We exploit the implementation of the German federal government’s second economic stimulus package of 2009 (K2) in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as natural experiment. In the context of this package, all municipalities in Baden-Wuerttemberg received lump-sum grants for local public investment spending. Applying a difference-in-differences and instrumental variables approach to ensure exogeneity of the decision of mayors to run for re-election, we provide evidence that, in the absence of an election, K2 grants led to an increase in a municipality’s spending on long-run investment, while municipalities in which the incumbent mayor stood for re-election used grants to increase both, long-run and rapidly visible short-run investment expenditures. Moreover, we provide evidence in favor of the flypaper effect for all municipalities, except for those in which the incumbent mayor did not seek re-election. |
| Keywords: | intergovernmental grants, flypaper effect, political budget cycles |
| JEL: | H30 H72 H77 H81 E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11457 |
| By: | Liliana Harding; Ciprian Panzaru |
| Abstract: | This study explores how refugees' destination preferences evolve during transit, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Romania. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyse data from the International Organization for Migration's (IOM) Flow Monitoring Surveys and complement it with qualitative insights from focus group discussions with refugees. The quantitative analysis reveals that refugees' preferences for destination countries often change during transit, influenced by factors such as safety concerns, asylum conditions, education, and the presence of relatives at the destination. Our results support the application of bounded rationality and human capital theory, showing that while economic opportunities are important, safety becomes the dominant concern during transit. The qualitative analysis adds depth to these findings, highlighting the role of political instability, social networks, and economic hardships as initial migration drivers. Additionally, the study reveals how refugees reassess their destination choices based on their experiences in transit countries, with Romania emerging as a viable settlement destination due to its relative stability and access to asylum procedures. This research contributes to migration studies by challenging the traditional view of transit countries and offering new insights into the fluid nature of refugee decision-making. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.08350 |
| By: | Yannick Bury; Lars P. Feld; Ekkehard A. Köhler |
| Abstract: | With an outstandingly long data set of Swiss cantonal public finances, we study whether this Swiss subnational level runs sustainable fiscal policies. Going back to the year 1905, we test for stationarity of cantonal public debt, revenue and spending and for cointegration between cantonal revenues and expenditures. Based on time series properties, we estimate individual fiscal reaction functions for each canton and for the panel of cantons as a whole. Using second generation panel-modelling and thus accounting for heterogeneity in cantonal fiscal policy, structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence among the cantons, our results show that the cantons run sustainable policies. Moreover, our results provide evidence that fiscal rules explain part of the heterogeneity in cantonal fiscal reactions to increased debt. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability, fiscal institutions, Swiss Cantons |
| JEL: | H62 H77 H72 C23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11453 |
| By: | Dafne Murillo; Sebastian Sardon |
| Abstract: | State capacity may shape whether natural resources generate prosperity, as it determines if windfalls are effectively turned into useful projects or wasted. We test this hypothesis studying the 2004-2011 mining boom in Peru, where mines' profits are redistributed as windfall transfers to local governments. Our empirical strategy combines geological data with the central government's mining windfalls allocation formula to identify the windfalls' effects on household incomes and other measures of economic development. Proxying local state capacity with the ability to tax and relying on a triple difference strategy we uncover significant variation in treatment response, with positive effects of windfalls limited to high state capacity localities. We find suggestive evidence that only localities with high state capacity succeed at transforming windfalls into infrastructure stocks, which in turns contributes to structural transformation and market integration. Lastly, social unrest increases in low state capacity localities that receive windfalls but fail to perceive their benefits. Our findings underscore important complementarities between investments in extractive industries and in state capacity. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.09586 |
| By: | Hersch, Joni (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Current Populations Survey 2015-2024 matched to skin color data in the New Immigrant Survey, this article shows that immigrants from countries with darker skin color face a substantial earnings penalty. The penalty is similar to that found using 2003 data on individual immigrants. Controls for extensive labor market characteristics and race and ethnicity does not eliminate the negative effect of darker skin tone on wages. Color discrimination lawsuits in light of the addition of a Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) reporting category for US government surveys may become more viable. |
| Keywords: | colorism, race, skin tone discrimination, immigrant, earnings, Current Population Survey, New Immigrant Survey, MENA |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J71 J78 K31 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17397 |
| By: | Keefer, Quinn (California State University San Marcos); Kniesner, Thomas J. (Claremont Graduate University) |
| Abstract: | Our research interest is in the existence and size of possible peer effects in pay or whether a worker may get a higher salary because another worker does rather than being related to a change in the worker’s productivity or market forces. Previous research, which has concentrated on executive pay, suffers from the inability to control for labor market forces. We net out market forces by studying a group of particular U.S. pro football players who are subject to a tightly budgeted unionized institutional arrangement affecting certain players pay set in the offseason. Our empirical results for NFL wide-receivers and cornerbacks during 2013-2022 are that there is an elasticity of average contract value with respect to the largest contract already signed in the offseason of about 0.17. Players we study who sign the largest contract during the offseason at the time of signing generate significant pay spillovers to players signing subsequent offseason contracts, suggesting that their compensation is economically and statistically significantly impacted by peer group reference points. |
| Keywords: | labor market reference point effects, NFL player pay, fixed effects, quantile regression, influence analysis |
| JEL: | J31 J33 Z21 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17440 |
| By: | Dan Anderberg (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Gordon Dahl (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Christina Felfe (University of Konstanz); Helmut Rainer (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Thomas Siedler (University of Potsdam) |
| Date: | 2024–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/03 |
| By: | Grenet, Julien (Paris School of Economics and CNRS); Grönqvist, Hans (Linnaeus University and); Niknami, Susan (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Electronic monitoring (EM) has emerged as a popular tool for curbing the growth of large prison populations. Evidence on the causal effects of EM on criminal recidivism is, however, limited and it is unclear how this alternative to incarceration affects the labor supply of offenders and the outcomes of their family members. We study the countrywide expansion of EM in Sweden in 1997 wherein offenders sentenced to up to three months in prison were granted the option to substitute incarceration with EM. Our difference-in-differences estimates, which compare the change in the prison inflow rate of treated offenders to that of non-treated offenders with slightly longer sentences, show that the reform significantly decreased the number of incarcerations. Our main finding is that EM not only lowers crimi nal recidivism but also increases labor supply. Additionally, EM improves the educational attainment and early-life earnings of the children whose parents were exposed to the reform. The primary mechanisms through which EM operates appear to involve the preservation of offenders’ ties to the labor market, by reducing the barriers to both finding a job and changing employers. Our calculations suggest that the social benefits stemming from EM are about seven times larger than the fiscal savings associated with reduced prison expenditures, implying that the welfare gains from EM could be much greater than previously acknowledged. |
| Keywords: | Electronic monitoring; Incarceration; Labor supply; Crime; Spillovers |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1508 |
| By: | Noriko Ashiya; Miyazaki Kenji |
| Abstract: | Japanese farmland has not been seen as an investment nor as a factor of agricultural production, as many privileged owners just abandon it while farmland property rights cannot be transferred easily due to the law; even so, Japanese farmland has the potential to become a long-term investment with the support of policy enhancement that will push forth farmland activation to possibly create a Japanese Food Valley. Using publicly accessible farmland data, this study analyzes the performance and portfolio diversification benefits of farmland in Japan over the 1986-2022 period. Statistics of the returns on farmland in general disappoint us with numbers around zero; however, there could have been portfolio diversification benefits for farmland components mixed with residential, commercial, or industrial land, even though some correlations are derived from data formed by modified criteria consistent with farmland regulations and the asset market bubble unique to Japan. Distinctively, the Hokkaido district with positive annual returns is found to have a significant negative correlation with other assets, reflecting greater portfolio diversification benefits. As a reference, this study also investigates the relationship between the returns on farmland and other traditional assets such as stocks and bonds. Farmland capital gain yields were not significantly correlated with those of stocks, although they showed some similarities to the significant correlations found between farmland and general land, reflecting the possibility of portfolio risk reduction. Significant correlations amongst the farmland and bonds reflect further portfolio diversification benefits, depending on the different characteristics of the two types of farmland values and the resulting positive/negative correlation coefficients. Such farmland value can be seen as a reflection of the distance from Tokyo, even though this is still within the scope of a hypothesis and needs our future consideration to establish scientific proof. |
| Keywords: | agricultural policy; Japanese farmland; real estate portfolio management |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-261 |
| By: | Jansson, Joakim (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Tyrefors, Björn (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence that anonymous grading benefits female university students based on a university-wide reform. Female grades improve by 0.04-0.06 standard deviations relative to males, with the effect strongest in smaller classes and male-dominated departments. |
| Keywords: | Anonymous grading; Gender differences; Grading bias; University |
| JEL: | I23 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1506 |
| By: | Bergh, Andreas (Department of Economics, Lund University, and); Wernberg, Joakim (Department of Technology and Society, Lund University, and) |
| Abstract: | Quasi-markets in the provision of public services are increasingly common but also highly contested. We formulate a conceptual framework based on economic theory to describe how quasi-markets differ from traditional markets in five aspects: 1) revenues, costs, and profits; 2) the matching of supply and demand; 3) competition; 4) structural change; and 5) rent-seeking. Using the assumption of profit-maximizing actors, we provide a stress test of quasi-market design and highlight how these differences affect incentives and expected outcomes. Applying the framework to the Swedish school voucher system, we show how design decisions have generated unintended consequences that are detrimental to service quality and run counter to policy goals. |
| Keywords: | Quasi-Markets; School vouchers; Market structure; Public administration |
| JEL: | D47 H52 H83 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1505 |
| By: | Alex Armand (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Britta Augsburg (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Antonella Bancalari (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Kalyan Kumar Kameshwara (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2023–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:23/39 |
| By: | Jacob Kim-Sherman; Lee Seltzer |
| Abstract: | In contrast with findings in climate science, economists often treat losses from natural disasters as statistically independent of one another. To better incorporate scientific insights into economic research, we introduce a methodology to identify spatial and temporal clusters in datasets on losses from natural disasters. We find that expected damage increases non-linearly with relative cluster size. Additionally, county-level damage is correlated with the damage experienced by other counties in the same cluster. Our findings suggest that accounting for clustering allows for a more complete understanding of the economic consequences of natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters; clustering; climate |
| JEL: | Q50 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:99082 |
| By: | Tan, Myles Joshua Toledo; Maravilla, Nicholle Mae Amor |
| Abstract: | The manuscript, "Enhancing Data Literacy in the Global South Through Culturally Relevant Pedagogy, " aligns with the scope of Language, Culture, and Diversity as it addresses the critical need for inclusive and equitable education practices by integrating culturally relevant pedagogy into data literacy initiatives. This work emphasizes the importance of recognizing and leveraging the diverse cultural identities, knowledge systems, and sociocultural contexts of learners in the Global South, which aligns with the journal's focus on fostering diverse, multilingual, and multicultural leadership. By promoting educational models that honor local knowledge and bridge global inequities, the manuscript contributes to international conversations about access, equity, and the transformative potential of education. |
| Date: | 2024–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hzgy4 |
| By: | Hambur Wang |
| Abstract: | This study explores the impact of appearance discrimination in the labor market and whether education can mitigate this issue. A statistical analysis of approximately 1.058 million job advertisements in China from 2008 to 2010 found that about 7.7% and 2.6% of companies had explicit requirements regarding candidates' appearance and height, particularly in positions with lower educational requirements. Literature review indicates that attractive job seekers typically enjoy higher employment opportunities and wages, while unattractive individuals face significant income penalties. Regression analysis of 1, 260 participants reveals a significant positive correlation between attractiveness scores and wages, especially in low-education groups. Conversely, in high-education groups, the influence of appearance on income is not significant. The study suggests that enhancing education levels can effectively alleviate income declines associated with appearance, providing policy recommendations to reduce appearance discrimination in the labor market. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.01621 |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Suvy Qin; John Voorheis; Reed Walker |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationships between air pollution, income, wealth, and race by combining administrative data from U.S. tax returns between 1979-2016, various measures of air pollution, and sociodemographic information from linked survey and administrative data. In the first year of our data, the relationship between income and ambient pollution levels nationally is approximately zero for both non-Hispanic White and Black individuals. However, at every single percentile of the national income distribution, Black individuals are exposed to, on average, higher levels of pollution than White individuals. By 2016, the relationship between income and air pollution had steepened, primarily for Black individuals, driven by changes in where rich and poor Black individuals live. We utilize quasi-random shocks to income to ex-amine the causal effect of changes in income and wealth on pollution exposure over a five-year horizon, finding that these income-pollution elasticities map closely to the values implied by our descriptive patterns. We calculate that Black-White differences in income can explain ~10 percent of the observed gap in air pollution levels in 2016. |
| Keywords: | income, inequality, air pollution |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2051 |
| By: | Amini, Sara; Rousseau, Lola; Hertwich, Edgar (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | As buildings become more energy efficient due to construction and technological improvements and stricter regulations, the impact of construction and maintenance materials is gaining prominence in the life cycle emissions of buildings. In high-income countries like Norway, renovation of the existing building stock is crucial for reducing overall environmental impacts. However, there is a lack of comprehensive data on the life cycle assessment (LCA) of Norwegian buildings, especially concerning material use and embodied emissions. Building archetypes offer a solution by providing structured background data to enhance LCA studies. This paper addresses this gap by examining the space heating demand and material use of residential building archetypes in Norway, categorized by type and construction cohort. Dynamic energy simulations were conducted using EnergyPlus, combined with the BuildME Python package for material aggregation and calculation. Our results show that structural components dominate the material intensity (MI) of most archetypes, particularly in buildings with basements. Multi-family houses (MFHs) built after 1991 outperform single-family houses (SFHs) and apartment blocks (ABs) in both MI and material per person (MpP). Renovating SFHs to accommodate more occupants could reduce their MpP while maintaining a comfortable living environment. The higher MI in ABs, driven by concrete floor decks, suggests that using wood in future constructions could significantly lower both MI and MpP, reducing resource use and embodied emissions. This work links energy performance with material efficiency, offering valuable data for improving policy and practices in the Norwegian building sector. |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:emsa4 |
| By: | Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Agnes Medinaceli (SDSN Bolivia); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living expenses and living wage for three urban districts: South Tangerang in the province of Banten, and Garut and Subang in the province of West Java, in Indonesia. The update for 2024 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the. original Anker living wage study carried out in November 2023 (Pantja Pramudya et al., 2023). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, Indonesia |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:240416 |
| By: | Naci H. Mocan; Nur Orak |
| Abstract: | There is a strong correlation between the preferences and beliefs of parents and their children. Also, children of more educated parents tend to have different preferences and beliefs than those of less educated parents. However, evidence on whether education influences adults’ preferences regarding the attributes they wish to instill in children is missing. This paper seeks to fill that gap. Utilizing compulsory education reforms implemented in 19 European countries and data from the Integrated Values Survey—which includes questions about essential qualities children should be encouraged to learn at home—we demonstrate that women who acquired additional education due to these reforms are more likely to prioritize imagination, determination and perseverance, and a sense of responsibility as important traits to instill in children. Conversely, they are less inclined to regard religiosity, obedience, and unselfishness as essential attributes for children to learn at home. In addition, we find that education reduces women's religiosity. These effects are primarily driven by Catholic women and women living in majority-Catholic countries. In contrast, education does not have a significant impact on men's religiosity or the child attributes they consider important. |
| JEL: | D0 I20 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33135 |
| By: | Vladimir Kozlov (Leibniz-Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS)); Ekaterina Sokolova (Eurasian Technological University Kazakhstan); Olga Veselovskaya (Eurasian Technological University Kazakhstan); Daria Saitova (Eurasian Technological University Kazakhstan.) |
| Abstract: | The paper is devoted to the fertility intentions of the migrants from Russia belonging to the recent wave of so called ‘Exodus’ caused by Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in 2022 and its social impact on Russian society. The authors use the disruption hypothesis and predict the drop in the fertility intentions of new-wave Russian migrants in comparison with the old- wave Russian migrants and stayers, matching and controlling for their socio-economic status. Although the new-wave migrants are in the active reproductive age, partnered and in many cases childless, the authors find a strong intention to the fertility postponement and even cancellation among them. The research is based on two on-line surveys organized in April – October 2023 via online social media and by the snowball method. The first survey provided authors with empirical data on old-wave and new-wave migrants, the second one – on stayers, who have close socio-economic characteristics to the migrants. As a result not only the lower birth intentions of the new-wave migrants was observed, but the positive effect on fertility intentions of the subjective income and willingness to stay in the host country. Especially it is obvious for the countries beyond the EU (mainly for post-Soviet and the Balkan ones). On the other hand for the countries of EU (welfare states) the fertility intentions are the highest |
| Keywords: | Fertility intensions, fertility among migrants, disruption, forced migration, Russian migrants |
| JEL: | D10 J13 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:403 |
| By: | INOUE Hiroyasu; TODO Yasuyuki |
| Abstract: | We constructed an establishment-level production network where each establishment inputs and outputs multiple products, using data that includes the firm-level production network and all establishments within those firms. The network represents the manufacturing sector with 183, 951 establishments across 157, 537 firms and 919, 982 inter-establishment linkages. A probabilistic model of supply chain disruptions was applied to this network. The key findings are as follows: (1) The establishment-level network exhibits greater shock propagation compared to the firm-level network. (2) Incorporating actual product information leads to a larger impact on propagation compared to using industry-level information. (3) Regional shock simulations reveal that while the firm-level network shows greater shock propagation when the shock originates in Tokyo, no such difference is observed in the establishment-level network. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24076 |