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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Wenxiao WANG (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law); Shandre Mugan THANGAVELU (Sunway University, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new empirical evidence of city amenities’ role in China’s internal migration using a unique city-level dataset. The results highlight the positive effects of city amenities such as education, public facilities, transportation, environment, and climate conditions in attracting migrant workers to cities. In our study, migrant workers are more likely to move to cities with better education, more public facilities, higher coverage of urban pensions, and a cooler climate with more precipitation. Moreover, they prefer to migrate and live in cities with larger service agglomeration and employment, higher average wages, more job opportunities, and lower house prices. |
| Keywords: | Amenities, Migration, Cities |
| JEL: | F15 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-18 |
| By: | Brian C. Fujiy |
| Abstract: | I causally estimate local knowledge spillovers in R&D and quantify their importance when implementing R&D policies. Using a new administrative panel on German inventors, I estimate these spillovers by isolating quasi-exogenous variation from the arrival of East German inventors across West Germany after the Reunification of Germany in 1990. Increasing the number of inventors by 1% increases inventor productivity by 0.4%. I build a spatial model of innovation, and show that these spillovers are crucial when reducing migration costs for inventors or implementing R&D subsidies to promote economic activity. |
| Keywords: | inventors, research and development, innovation, agglomeration, spillovers |
| JEL: | F16 J61 O4 O31 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-59 |
| By: | Yi Wu; Kwan Ok Lee; Souneil Park |
| Abstract: | Existing evidence on residential migration has focused on patterns of leaving high-density central cities and moving into peri-urban areas after COVID-19. However, the discussion on variations in these patterns between neighborhoods within the central city has been largely neglected. We investigate whether the role of neighborhood quality to residential turnover has changed and how this quality affects the destination neighborhood choices of movers over different COVID-19 phases. In doing so, we use the monthly information of inter-neighborhood migration from more than 11.61 million mobile phone users in UK (25% market share) including more than 224.265 million pairs of movers between April 2019 and October 2022 in UK, which is linked to the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) of 4, 835 neighborhoods in London. We first report a significant increase in out-migration from London neighborhoods to commuting belt areas or even further after COVID-19. Next, we demonstrate that more deprived neighborhoods in London experienced a higher turnover by losing their residents to non-London and other London neighborhoods after the COVID-19 outbreak. This trend was strongest during COVID-19 but continued even when the COVID-19 faded out. Finally, we find a stronger sorting pattern by the quality of origin neighborhoods especially after the new normal started. Movers from more deprived London neighborhoods show a lower probability of upward mobility to both London and non-London destinations, relative to pre-COVID-19 periods. These findings on within-city variations in residential turnover and spatial sorting have important implications for residents' wellbeing and potential spatial segregation. |
| Keywords: | Big data; COVID-19; Neighborhood Quality; Residential Turnover |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-236 |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent research in spatial economics. The field of spatial economics is concerned with the determinants and effects of the location of economic activity in geographic space. It analyses how geographical location shapes the economic activities per-formed by agents, their interactions with one another, their welfare, and the effects of public policy interventions. Research in this area has benefited from the simultaneous development of new theoretical techniques, new sources of geographic information systems (GIS) data, rapid advances in computing power, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and renewed public policy interest in infrastructure and appropriate policies towards places 'left-behind' by globalization and technology. Among the insights from this research are the role of goods and commuting market access in determining location choices; the conditions under which the location of economic activity is characterized by multiple equilibria; the circumstances under which temporary shocks can have permanent effects (hysteresis or path dependence); the heterogeneous and persistent impact of local shocks; the magnitude and spatial decay of agglomeration economics; and the role of both agglomeration forces and endogenous changes in land use in shaping the impact of transport infrastructure improvements. |
| Keywords: | cities, economic geography, regions, spatial economics |
| Date: | 2024–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2047 |
| By: | Thisse, Jacques-François (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Turner, Matthew A. (Brown University); Ushchev, Philip (Université Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | Howdopeoplechooseworkandresidencelocationswhencommutingiscostly and productivity spillovers, increasing returns to scale, or first nature advantage, reward the concentration of employment. We describe such an equilibrium city in a simple geography populated by agents with heterogenous preferences over workplace-residence pairs. The behavior of equilibrium cities is more complex than previously understood. Heterogeneous location preferences are sufficient for equilibrium centralization of employment and residence. Increasing returns and productivity spillovers can disperse employment. An increase in commuting costs may decentralize residence and employment. Our results shed new light on classical urban economics and are important for our understanding of quantitative spatial models. |
| Keywords: | Urban economics ; Spatial equilibrium ; Agglomeration effects |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2024016 |
| By: | Maria Pia Iocco (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, BN1 9SL, UK, Economics & Institute for Policy Research (IPR), University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY) |
| Abstract: | : This paper studies the effect of school closures on students’ test scores in the Chilean educational market, which was a relatively easy-to-free and exit market. With a school exit rate varying from 1% to 2%, thousands of students are forced to reallocate at the end of every academic year. I use a nationwide, standardised test applied to the same cohort three times during their primary and middle years to analyse the impact of these closures on their math and reading performance. Using value-added models, the estimations show no effects on average on both subjects for girls and boys. However, there are heterogeneous results by type of closing school, with no impact in public schools but negative in voucher and private ones. In addition, consistent with the previous literature, the results show an immediate negative impact the first year after the closure but null or even positive outcomes in the medium term. Results also suggest that students moving to schools with better performance than the closing one can see a boost in their scores |
| Keywords: | planned school closures, student learning, test scores |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0524 |
| By: | Krantz, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Using rich geospatial data and causal machine learning (ML), this paper maps potential economic benefits from incremental investments in all major types of public and economic infrastructure across Africa. These 'infrastructure potential maps' cover all African populated areas at a spatial resolution of 9.7km (96km2). They show that the local returns to infrastructure are highly variable and context-specific. For example 'hard infrastructure' such as paved roads and communications is more beneficial in cities, whereas 'social infrastructure' such as education, health, public services and utilities is more critical in rural areas. Market access and agglomeration effects largely govern these returns. The open Africa Infrastructure Database built for this project provides granular data in 54 economic categories/sectors. It reveals that Africa's infrastructure is concentrated in urban areas, with cities exhibiting marked heterogeneity in infrastructure, public services, and economic activities. Spatial inefficiency is common. The findings are consistent with economic literature, highlighting causal ML and explainable AI's potential to generate insights from geospatial data and assist spatial planning. |
| Keywords: | Africa, infrastructure, investment potential, geospatial big data, causal ML, explainable AI |
| JEL: | O18 R11 R40 C14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:305261 |
| By: | Maria Pia Iocco (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, BN1 9SL, UK, Economics & Institute for Policy Research (IPR), University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of an educational reform in Guatemala that modified the training of primary teachers from three years at the secondary level (grades 10 to 12 of a diversified cycle in high school) to a combination of two years of high school and three at a university, obtaining a Bachelor of Education (B.Ed.) before being able to apply to become a primary school teacher. Exploiting the timing of the implementation and an unaffected group of students as controls, I analyse the effects at the student levels in terms of enrolment and performance during their high school years and the effects on official teachers’ colleges regarding performance due to the opportunity of financial aid for their students. Results show a decrease in enrolment for primary teaching students, negative but not always significant results in math, and mixed results in reading. Besides, I also observed a change in the characteristics of aspiring educators. Official teachers’ colleges experienced an initial increase in their primary teaching performance compared to other types of schools, but the effect faded after a couple of years, becoming negative |
| Keywords: | teacher training, teacher recruiting, policy reform, primary teachers, Guatemala |
| JEL: | I21 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0624 |
| By: | Weichselbaumer, Doris (University of Linz); Riess, Hermann (Johannes Kepler University Linz) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we conduct an email correspondence test to examine ethnic discrimination against males with different immigration backgrounds (Serbian, Turkish/Muslim and Syrian/Muslim) in the Austrian rental housing market. In particular, we investigate the effect that immigrant generation has on callback chances. Property owners may perceive more recent immigrants as particularly "other" and fear that they will not be good tenants because, for example, they treat a property in an undesirable manner. We compare landlords' replies to inquiries from immigrants of the first, first and a half, and second generation to those who do not provide respective information about their immigration background. We find substantial levels of ethnic discrimination, which - in the case that no information on immigrant generation is provided - is highest for applicants with a Syrian name, followed by those bearing a Turkish and Serbian name. When applicants specify their place of birth and upbringing, callback rates are highest for second generation immigrants and lowest for first generation immigrants. This suggests advantages for more acculturated applicants. Accommodation seekers with a Syrian name, who may otherwise be perceived as refugees, benefit the most from stating that they were born in Austria. |
| Keywords: | ethnic discrimination, housing market, email correspondence experiment |
| JEL: | C93 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17403 |
| By: | Giuseppe Arbia; Vincenzo Nardelli |
| Abstract: | In the analysis of large spatial datasets, identifying and treating spatial outliers is essential for accurately interpreting geographical phenomena. While spatial correlation measures, particularly Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), are widely used to detect spatial patterns, the presence of abnormal observations frequently distorts the landscape and conceals critical spatial relationships. These outliers can significantly impact analysis due to the inherent spatial dependencies present in the data. Traditional influence function (IF) methodologies, commonly used in statistical analysis to measure the impact of individual observations, are not directly applicable in the spatial context because the influence of an observation is determined not only by its own value but also by its spatial location, its connections with neighboring regions, and the values of those neighboring observations. In this paper, we introduce a local version of the influence function (LIF) that accounts for these spatial dependencies. Through the analysis of both simulated and real-world datasets, we demonstrate how the LIF provides a more nuanced and accurate detection of spatial outliers compared to traditional LISA measures and local impact assessments, improving our understanding of spatial patterns. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.18261 |
| By: | Hambur Wang |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of industrial agglomeration on land use intensification in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration. Utilizing spatial econometric models, we conduct an empirical analysis of the clustering phenomena in manufacturing and producer services. By employing the Location Quotient (LQ) and the Relative Diversification Index (RDI), we assess the degree of industrial specialization and diversification in the YRD. Additionally, Global Moran's I and Local Moran's I scatter plots are used to reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of land use intensification. Our findings indicate that industrial agglomeration has complex effects on land use intensification, showing positive, negative, and inverted U-shaped impacts. These synergistic effects exhibit significant regional variations across the YRD. The study provides both theoretical foundations and empirical support for the formulation of land management and industrial development policies. In conclusion, we propose policy recommendations aimed at optimizing industrial structures and enhancing land use efficiency to foster sustainable development in the YRD region. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.19304 |
| By: | Vasiliki Fouka; Theo Serlin |
| Abstract: | How does economic modernization affect group identity? Modernization theory emphasizes how labor migration led to the adoption of common identities. Yet economic development may reduce incentives to emigrate, preserving local cultures. We study England and Wales during the Second Industrial Revolution, a period characterized by the development of new industries and declines in transportation and communication costs. Using microdata on individuals’ names and migration decisions, we quantify identity change and its variation across space. We develop and estimate a quantitative spatial model in which migration and cultural identities are inter-dependent. Different components of economic modernization had different effects on identity change. Falling migration costs homogenized peripheral regions. In contrast, industrial development led to heterogeneity, increasing the overall prevalence of the culture of London, while also creating local identity holdouts by reducing out-migration from industrializing peripheries. Modernization promotes both national identities and persistent local identities in peripheral regions that industrialize. |
| JEL: | J6 N0 N33 N63 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33114 |
| By: | Sarah Bui; Timothy Freeman; Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Farah Kaddah (Harvard's Growth Lab); Lucas Lamby (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Tim O'Brien (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Eric S. M. Protzer (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Quantitative evidence supports the contention that Wyoming’s housing market is constrained, to a greater degree than many other parts of the US. Prices are persistently above expectations given economic fundamentals in most parts of the state, and the supply of new housing in Wyoming is on average less responsive to price increases than in other US counties. This has undermined natural population growth and contributed to a low amount of population density close to city centers in Wyoming, as compared to other US cities with comparable population levels. Importantly, this phenomenon is not simply the result of pandemic-era economic frictions. The evidence shows that these constraints have durably persisted in Wyoming. This housing constraint weighs heavily on the broader Wyoming’s economy, and chokes off growth in new industries that could add to the Wyoming economy beyond its natural resource base. Businesses consistently report a lack of access to workforce as a leading problem that ultimately results from a lack of housing. Some businesses have even tried to create their own housing for employees, and news reports abound of teachers and nurses who secure jobs in Wyoming communities but then have to leave because they cannot find housing. Key problems behind Wyoming’s housing constraints include excessive regulations concerning housing density and insufficient investment in arterial infrastructure. We suggest a portfolio of policy changes for the state of Wyoming to explore in order to solve its housing constraints. |
| Keywords: | wyoming, housing market, deregulation, arterial infrastructure |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:213 |
| By: | Wayne Aaron Sandholtz; Wayne Sandholtz |
| Abstract: | I use variation in ex-ante school fee payments to measure how Free Secondary Education (FSE) affected primary students in Tanzania. I first confirm FSE increased secondary access: secondary enrollments rose, household spending on secondary school fees plummeted, and elites’ transition premium disappeared. I then show that FSE increased primary exam pass rates by 6% and secondary transition rates by 23%. This was not due to supply inputs: there was no effect on school entry, and class sizes rose. Instead it appears to be driven by demand-side investments: primary students selected into better schools, attended more, and worked less. |
| Keywords: | school access, human capital investments, high-stakes exam data, Tanzania |
| JEL: | I25 H52 O12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11343 |
| By: | Elaine Drayton (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); David Sturrock (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/35 |
| By: | Andr s G mez-Lobo; Daniel Oviedo |
| Abstract: | We examine three dimensions of spatial inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): between rural and urban areas (rural-urban divide), between large and small cities (metropolitan bias or centralization) and within metropolitan areas (urban segregation). As a first approach, we use information from the Luxembourg Income Study survey data to decompose an inequality measure between urban and rural areas and between large and smaller cities for 9 LAC countries and 13 developed countries. The results indicate that LAC countries are in general more unequal than developed economies along all spatial dimensions. However, there are several salient structural differences between both groups of countries worth noting. First, the rural-urban divide is much larger in absolute terms as well as relative (to overall inequality) terms in LAC compared to the developed countries in the sample. Second, there is some evidence pointing to a centralization or metropolitan bias in the LAC region compared to the developed countries. Within urban inequality measure in smaller cities is the largest decomposition term both in LAC as well as developed countries. This implies that more emphasis should be placed on poverty rates in smaller urban areas and not just large metropolitan areas. As a second approach we characterize the structure of Latin American cities with those of other regions of the world using data from the Atlas of Urban Expansion (AUE) (Blei and Angel, 2021). Finally, we also summarize some case studies to better understand the issues surrounding segregation in LAC urban areas. One feature of LAC is the concentration of the poor in informal settlements in the periphery of cities, generating unequal access to employment, education, and health services as well as other mobility related issues. Overall, we conclude that poverty has a spatial or territorial dimension in LAC that needs to be addressed. Although there is no single policy to tackle the complexity of spatial inequality, in the final section we discuss the importance of infrastructure investments and transport policies to address the issues raised in this paper. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:869 |
| By: | Simon Fuchs; Woan Foong Wong |
| Abstract: | We examine the economic and environmental impacts of improvements and disruptions in multimodal transport networks. Our quantitative spatial equilibrium model incorporates routing over multiple modes and congestion at intermodal terminals. We estimate a modal substitution elasticity with highway and rail data, and a terminal congestion elasticity with vessel-positioning data. Calibrated to the U.S. freight network, our model identifies key bottlenecks and quantifies $300-700 million in additional real GDP gains from intermodal terminal improvements. These gains are 2.5 times higher without congestion, and substitution away from roads yield additional environmental benefits. Losing rail network access, factoring in modal substitution and general equilibrium effects, is estimated to reduce real GDP by $230 billion. |
| Keywords: | multimodal transport, transport network, spatial equilibrium, endogenous transport costs, infrastructure investments, disruptions, bottlenecks |
| JEL: | F11 R12 R42 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11362 |
| By: | Anne Brockmeyer; Francisco Garfias; Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato |
| Abstract: | Can the provision of public goods strengthen the fiscal capacity of governments in developing countries and move them toward an equilibrium of widespread tax compliance? We present evidence of the impact of local public infrastructure on tax compliance, leveraging a large public investment experiment and individual property tax records from Mexico City. Despite the salience and large effects of these investments on access to infrastructure, property values, and local economic development, we find no changes in property tax compliance and can rule out even small increases. These null effects persist even when taxpayers are reminded about the tax-benefit link. |
| Keywords: | tax compliance, public goods, infrastructure, development |
| JEL: | H71 O23 H41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11270 |
| By: | Estrin, Saul; Hu, Yuan; Shapiro, Daniel; Zhang, Peng |
| Abstract: | Theory and evidence from developed economies suggests that innovation activities benefit from agglomeration economies associated with urban economic density. However, despite the fact that eighteen of the world’s top twenty cities are in developing countries, we do not know whether agglomeration affects innovation in the same way in developing countries. We propose that, while there are still agglomeration benefits, the development path followed by cities in developing countries also creates significant agglomeration costs and these act to limit innovation. We build a unique database to measure consistently both urban economic density and innovation across a large number of developing countries. Based on geospatial information, we combine data on nightlights at the city level to proxy urban density with information on innovation activity at the firm level. We find that in developing countries, as urban economic density increases, innovation first increases and then begins to decrease beyond a certain point, with the decline being most prominent in the largest cities. That is, the largest cities in developing countries are not able to act as sustainable sources of innovation. Cities in developing countries therefore display different patterns of agglomeration from those documented in the literature focused on developed countries. Our analysis explores the relationship between UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9 which fosters innovation, and SDG 11 which promotes sustainable and resilient cities. Our results suggest the importance of addressing urban agglomeration costs as a means to facilitate innovative activity. |
| Keywords: | innovation; nightlights; urban agglomeration; sustainable cities; developing countries; World Bank Enterprise Surveys |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125983 |
| By: | Saowaruj RATTANAKHAMFU (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Naparit CHANTAWASINKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut Warakorn AWUTPANYAKUL (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)); Nuttawut Natcha YONGPHIPHATWONG (Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between urban density and productivity, specifically wages adjusted for provincial price differences, in four major cities of Thailand: Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Khon Kaen, and Songkla. Utilising the ArcGIS survey of Khon Thai 4.0 data, which measures urban density as the number of inhabitants per grid cell area, we employ the two-stage least squares estimation technique to address endogeneity concerns. Our findings demonstrate that higher urban density leads to an 8.9% increase in individual hourly wages at the 5% significance level. This supports the notion that densely populated urban areas foster enhanced productivity through agglomeration economies and knowledge spillovers. Furthermore, we observe the expected impacts of education, age, and gender on wages. Higher education is associated with an 8.2% increase in wages, highlighting its influence on labour productivity. Age exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship, indicating that experience and skill development lead to higher wages up to a certain threshold. Male workers earn approximately 5.83% more than their female counterparts, revealing a gender wage gap. Moreover, our analysis reveals contrasting effects of higher urban density on skilled and unskilled workers. Skilled workers experience a significant 15.2% increase in wages, whereas the impact on unskilled workers remains modest at around 1.8%. Additionally, education significantly contributes to higher wages for both skilled and unskilled workers. This study provides valuable policy implications for promoting labour productivity and addressing urban development challenges in Thailand. |
| Keywords: | Urban development; Urban density; Labour productivity; Wage differentials |
| JEL: | J24 J31 O15 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-12 |
| By: | Gong, Huiwen (University of Stavanger); Hassink, Robert (Kiel University) |
| Abstract: | In regional studies and economic geography, interest in regional economic resilience and regional innovation policy has steadily increased in recent decades. Although these two perspectives appear to be closely related, relatively little research has elaborated on the interrelationships between them. In this chapter, we take stock of the current two key conceptual extensions of the work on regional economic resilience, i.e., 1) the simultaneous consideration of regional and value chain resilience and 2) the discussion on transformative resilience and the normative turn on regional innovation policy in economic geography and beyond. Overall, we find that the shift toward more sustainable and inclusive development is increasingly being advocated by scholars working on regional resilience or regional innovation policy, leading to increased interest in new concepts such as "transformative resilience" and "challenge-oriented/transformative regional innovation policy" in the respective research fields. However, there is relatively little evidence on how regional resilience that is transformative in nature (e.g., transformative resilience) can be fostered by the new generation of regional innovation policy and how the increasing frequency of shocks of all kinds requires new thinking in regional innovation policy. We therefore suggest four promising avenues for future research that link the hitherto largely isolated perspectives of regional resilience and regional innovation policy to explain regional economic change in the post-crisis period. |
| Keywords: | regional innovation policy; regional resilience; transformative resilience; economic geography |
| JEL: | O30 O38 R10 |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2024_015 |
| By: | Berson, Clémence; Combes, Pierre-Philippe; Gobillon, Laurent; Sotura, Aurélie |
| Abstract: | We examine how agglomeration economies have influenced labour earnings in France over forty years. First, we define cities dynamically to account for their changing footprints. Our findings show that aggregate wage growth is mainly driven by growth in larger cities, rather than smaller ones or by population shifts across cities. We estimate individual wages incorporating time-varying city and individual fixed effects, and analyse how city characteristics (employment density, area, and market access) and their returns impact wage evolution. Changes in the values of these characteristics have minimal effect, but changes in their returns significantly influence wages, with notable variation across cities. Overall, aggregate wage growth in France reflects larger returns to larger city size. Our model, that incorporate the impact of agglomeration economies on city size and population, suggests that changes in returns do not drive population or area changes sufficiently to impact aggregate labour earnings, supporting our empirical findings. JEL Classification: R23, J31, J61 |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economies, endogenous city size, growth, wages |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242997 |
| By: | Duc A. Nguyen; Steven Brakman; Harry Garretsen; Tristan Kohl |
| Abstract: | We study the post-war effects of the bombing of German cities during WWII on urban growth and use the synthetic control method (SCM) to construct comparison units for affected West-German cities. The reason to use SCM is that cities might experience structural changes that have nothing to do with the bombing of cities. Ignoring these structural changes could incorrectly attribute the decline of cities to the WWII bombing shock, while other factors are at work. The SCM takes these structural changes onboard. The synthetic units are used as counterfactuals to assess the long-run impact following the WWII bombing on the size distribution of 53 West-German cities. Our main contribution is that we do not only study whether bombed cities are mean-reverting, but also use the counterfactual to determine whether individual cities experienced a positive or negative impact. In general, we find mean reversion for 50-70% of cities, as well as a roughly balanced ratio of positively to negatively impacted cities. |
| Keywords: | urban growth, synthetic control method, WWII shock, city size distribution |
| JEL: | R12 C93 B40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11423 |
| By: | Peter Lambert; Chris Larkin |
| Abstract: | Since 2020, the dramatic rise in remote work has coincided with increased geographic mobility in the United States. We examine the relationship between these trends and their effects on the electoral landscape. Using IRS microdata, online job postings, and Census surveys, we find that remote work opportunities concentrate in Democratic-leaning areas, with interstate migration strongly linked to individuals who mostly work from home. Our analysis reveals significant population shifts from Democratic to Republican and swing regions, potentially impacting electoral outcomes in key battleground states. |
| Keywords: | remote work, geographic mobility, electoral demographics, political geography |
| Date: | 2024–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:67 |
| By: | Clark, Callie; Ozturk, Ayse Tugba; Hong, Preston; Gonzalez, Marta C. PhD; Moura, Scott J. PhD |
| Abstract: | Public electric vehicle (EV) chargers are unevenly distributed in California with respect to income, race and education-levels. This creates inequitable access to electric mobility especially for low-income communities of color, which. are less likely to have access to home charging stations. These vulnerable communities are also more likely to be located in areas with poor air quality and would therefore benefit from EV adoption. Currently programs exist in California that fund incentives for public EV chargers in “Disadvantaged Communities” but the process for identifying these communities does not consider key characteristics such as housing type, potential for local emission reduction, and the degree of access to private chargers that would maximize economic benefits to these areas and the state. This study develops a model-based tool that incorporates key additional information to predict economic benefits and health impacts to local communities to guide the location of public charging infrastructure. This tool will improve the equitable distribution of public funds by identifying three types of expected benefits: economic benefit to EV owners/users, economic benefit to infrastructure operators, and greenhouse gas and PM2.5 emission reductions. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Electric vehicle charging, social equity, disadvantaged communities, economic benefits, public health, greenhouse gases |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3jb779n1 |
| By: | Henderson, J. Vernon; Thisse, Jacques-François |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125675 |
| By: | Grimaldi, Daniel (George Mason University); Mitnik, Oscar A. (Inter-American Development Bank); Zimmermann, Beatrice (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | How does the proximity to a metro station affect urban development in Latin America? While the literature assessing the causal impacts of transportation infrastructure has grown in recent years, only a few papers have focused on the effects of metro systems in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, and identifying the precise impacts of such investments is far from straightforward. We apply a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDiD) approach to estimate the effects of the expansion of Line 5 of the São Paulo metro system in Brazil on land use and property features. Our results show positive impacts on constructed area, with a treatment effect that is half the magnitude of the average constructed area in untreated units in the pre-treatment period. Additionally, our findings indicate an increase in the number of properties around the stations, with a shift in property composition towards more commercial units. We also find a strong anticipation effect associated with the new metro infrastructure and dynamic impacts after the opening of the first metro station, with effects that increase over time. |
| Keywords: | land use, infrastructure investments, impact evaluation |
| JEL: | R14 R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17414 |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Kyle Handley; André Kurmann; Philip A. Luck |
| Abstract: | Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions. |
| JEL: | F1 F16 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33098 |
| By: | Lincove, Jane Arnold (University of Maryland, Baltimore County); Mata, Catherine (University of Maryland); Cortes, Kalena E. (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | This research analyzes the implementation of a school suspension ban in Maryland to investigate whether a top-down state-initiated ban on suspensions in early primary grades can influence school behavior regarding school discipline. Beginning in the fall of 2017, the State of Maryland banned the use of out-of-school suspensions for grades PK-2, unless a student posed an "imminent threat" to staff or students. This research investigates (1) what was the effect of the ban on discipline outcomes for students in both treated grades and upper elementary grades not subject to the ban? (2) did schools bypass the ban by coding more events as threatening or increasing the use of inschool suspensions? and (3) were there differential effects for students in groups that are historically suspended more often? Using a comparative interrupted time series strategy, we find that the ban is associated with a substantial reduction in, but not a total elimination of, out-of-school suspensions for targeted grades without substitution of in-school suspensions. Disproportionalities by race and other characteristics remain after the ban. Grades not subject to the ban experienced few effects, suggesting the ban did not trigger a schoolwide response that reduced exclusionary discipline. |
| Keywords: | school discipline, school exclusion, exclusionary discipline, discipline disparities, educational equity, suspensions |
| JEL: | I21 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17393 |
| By: | Ali Sina Önder (University of Portsmouth); Sascha Schweitzer (Reutlingen University); Olga Tcaci (TUD Dresden University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of technological innovation on regional labor market outcomes. Our identification strategy exploits pre-reunification complementarities in innovation between East and West Germany. We employ individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to analyze labor market out- comes. Individuals’ income in West German counties with pre-reunification complementarities increased by 1.3%-1.5% on average after reunification. The effect is amplified when disentangling for different occupations: Income increases by 27%-29%, self-employment increases significantly, unemployment remains unaffected. The use of East German know-how in West German patents after reunification is driven by the migration of East German inventors to West German counties. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; Patent Analysis; Knowledge Complementarities; Occupations; German Reunification |
| JEL: | J24 O31 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2024-07 |
| By: | Hoyos, Mateo (Center for Research and Teaching in Economics); Coronado, José Alejandro; Martins, Guilherme Klein |
| Abstract: | This paper presents novel empirical evidence on the impact of trade on structural transformation. Leveraging quasi-experimental tariff variation from Brazil's trade liberalization in the 1990s, we examine its effects on regional sectoral employment shares. Building on recent cross-regional macroeconomic literature, we approximate the aggregate effects of trade on structural change by extending the traditional shift-share analysis to include estimates of spatial spillover effects, beyond the commonly reported local or direct impacts. Our findings reveal that Brazilian regions directly exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a significant decrease in manufacturing employment shares, an increase in the primary sector, and a decline in non-tradables. Spatial spillover effects—whether based on migration or gravity links—are positive for manufacturing and the primary sector but negative for non-tradables. While positive spillovers in manufacturing partially offset local deindustrialization, the net effects remain negative and economically significant. These effects persisted for at least twenty years post-liberalization and are independent of potential confounders, including alternative structural change hypotheses and other shocks to Brazil's economy during the study period. Our results are consistent with the theoretical literature on trade and structural transformation which emphasizes the significance of comparative advantage. |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rfqvt |
| By: | Chun Chee Kok (Monash University); Gedeon J. Lim (University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run effects of a colonial-era, large-scale resettlement program of ethnic minorities, on contemporary economic outcomes and political preferences of ethnic majority individuals in receiving areas. In ethnic Malay-majority Malaysia, the colonial British relocated 500, 000 rural ethnic Chinese minorities into fenced-up, isolated, monoethnic camps (1948 – 1960) all across rural Malaysia. This brought some pre-existing ethnic Malay-majority areas into closer contact with ethnic Chinese minorities but not others. Criteria for resettlement locations were largely military in nature. Using a spatial randomization inference-type approach, we construct counterfactual village locations based on this criteria. We find that areas located immediately next to Chinese New Villages (0-2km) experienced better economic outcomes and, in turn, had lower vote shares for the ethno-nationalistic coalition, than polling districts located next to similarly suitable, counterfactual locations. We provide suggestive evidence that these lower vote shares were driven by all voters, not just the ethnic Chinese. Together, our results suggest that persistent differences in inter-ethnic proximity can have a lasting, negative impact on voter preferences for ethno-nationalistic politics through improvements in economic outcomes and sustained increases in casual, interethnic interactions. |
| Keywords: | ethnic diversity, inter-group contact, immigration, Southeast Asia, voting |
| JEL: | D72 J15 P50 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2024-06 |
| By: | Rungsee Benjaanunphong; Pornraht Pongprasert |
| Abstract: | This research aims to analyze the factors affecting the price of condominium projects along the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Orange Line, an electric train that is expected to start operation in 2025. It is the main Heavy Rail line connecting Eastern Bangkok suburbs with the city's new Central Business District (New CBD). To provide more opportunities for land development, the city plan of Bangkok has also changed along the Orange Line, especially Ramkhamhaeng Road. The price of land will rise as a result. Researchers are interested about how the price of the condominium will change if additional factors are taken into consideration, such as the project's proximity to the MRT station, the main road, the expressway entrance and exit points, private facilities, and other factors related to the operator's reliability and the expense of the common area. To construct the project and set the price in line with the actual circumstances, this research outcome aims to provide real estate developers with an understanding of the factors that determine the pricing of condominiums along MRT Orange. Buyers of condominiums can use the proper price information to inform their selections. When making investing decisions, investors of stocks in real estate companies could consider this information into consideration and this data can be used as an outline by the Revenue Department to collect land taxes. In this research was used to analyse data from 28 condominium projects along Orange Line with a project life of no more than five years, covering areas close to the new CBD to the Eastern Bangkok suburbs, such as Min Buri. There are a total of 17 factors used in running regression under 3 groups: Locational, Physical and neighborhood characteristics. In result, it is found that 3 factors that affect the price are: Floors, Distance from Train Station and Distance from Department Store. |
| Keywords: | Central Business District (CBD); Condominium; Eastern Bangkok suburbs; MRT Orange Line |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-239 |
| By: | Andr s Rodr guez-Pose; Javier Terrero-Davila; Neil Lee |
| Abstract: | Economic change over the past twenty years has rendered many individuals and territories vulnerable, leading to greater interpersonal and interterritorial inequality. This rising inequality is seen as a root cause of populism. Yet, there is no comparative evidence as to whether this discontent is the consequence of localised interpersonal inequality or stagnant growth in ‘left-behind’ places. This paper assesses the association between levels and changes in local GDP per capita and interpersonal inequality, and the rise of far-right populism in Europe and in the US. The analysis —conducted at small region level for Europe and county level for the US— shows that there are both similarities and differences in the factors connected to populist voting on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, neither interpersonal inequality nor economic decline can explain populist support on their own. However, these factors gain significance when considered together with the racial composition of the area. Counties with a large share of white population where economic growth has been stagnant and where inequalities have increased supported Donald Trump. Meanwhile, counties with a similar economic trajectory but with a higher share of minorities shunned populism. In Europe, the most significant factor behind the rise of far-right populism is economic decline. This effect is particularly large in areas with a high share of immigration. |
| JEL: | D31 D72 R11 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:859 |
| By: | Katsiaryna Bahamazava (Department of Mathematical Sciences G.L. Lagrange, Politecnico di Torino, Italy, iLaVita Nonprofit Foundation, Italy - USA) |
| Abstract: | Urbanization and technological advancements are reshaping the future of urban mobility, presenting both challenges and opportunities. This paper combines foresight and scenario planning with mathematical modeling using Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to explore how Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven technologies can transform transportation systems. By simulating ODE-based models in Python, we quantify the impact of AI innovations, such as autonomous vehicles and intelligent traffic management, on reducing traffic congestion under different regulatory conditions. Our ODE models capture the dynamic relationship between AI adoption rates and traffic congestion, providing quantitative insights into how future scenarios might unfold. By incorporating industry collaborations and case studies, we offer strategic guidance for businesses and policymakers navigating this evolving landscape. This study contributes to understanding how foresight, scenario planning, and ODE modeling can inform strategies for creating more efficient, sustainable, and livable cities through AI adoption. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.19915 |
| By: | Hanushek, Eric A. (Hoover Institution, Stanford University; CESifo, IZA, and NBER); Kinne, Lavinia (DIW Berlin); Sancassani, Pietro (ifo Institute, University of Munich); Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich, ifo Institute; Hoover Institution, Stanford University; CESifo, and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Decisions to invest in human capital depend on people’s time preferences. This paper shows that differences in patience are closely related to substantial subnational differences in educational achievement, leading to new perspectives on longstanding within-country disparities. We use social-media data – Facebook interests – to construct novel regional measures of patience within Italy and the United States. The approach is first validated with a cross-country analysis of patience and Facebook interests. We then show that patience is strongly positively associated with student achievement across regions in both countries, accounting for three-quarters of the achievement variation across Italian regions and one-third across U.S. states. The finding is confirmed in an identification strategy employing variation in ancestry countries of the current population of U.S. states. Results hold for six other countries with more limited regional achievement data. |
| Keywords: | patience, human capital, student achievement, regions, social media, Facebook JEL Classification: I21, Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:731 |
| By: | Claudia Serra-Sala; Clàudia Serra-Sala |
| Abstract: | Wind farm development, despite offering global benefits, often encounters local opposition fostered by local negative externalities and uncertain benefits. This study investigates the financial impact of wind farm development on host municipalities using Spanish municipality-level budget data from 1994 to 2022. Results from two-way fixed effect difference-in-difference and event study models show an average 45 percent increase in municipal revenue per capita, funding real investments and current expenditures. This revenue increase, driven by a tax base expansion, is complemented by a rise in capital income and local tax responses in the form of higher tax rates associated with this infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | energy transition, local public finance, wind power |
| JEL: | H20 R10 Q40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11283 |
| By: | Gülnaz engül Güne; Sinan Güne; Monsurat Ayojimi Salami; Yeim Tanrvermi |
| Abstract: | Corporate social sustainability is an approach aimed at minimizing environmental and social impacts while sustaining economic activities of businesses and fulfilling responsibilities towards society. This approach not only aims to generate profit but also endeavors to preserve environmental resources, be sensitive to societal needs, and create long-term sustainable value. Corporate social sustainability encourages businesses to operate in an environmentally and socially sensitive manner, moving away from a sole focus on profit. The real estate sector, while shaping the physical fabric of cities and societies, is also a significant sector that needs to be mindful of its environmental impacts. Real estate properties contribute to a certain percentage of environmental issues due to factors such as energy consumption, water resource utilization, and waste management. In this context, real estate companies are required to embrace and implement corporate social sustainability principles to reduce environmental impacts and meet societal needs. Practices such as green building design, energy efficiency measures, and waste management systems constitute a significant part of sustainability efforts in the real estate sector. Thus, real estate companies contribute to a sustainable future by both mitigating their environmental impacts and operating in a socially responsible manner. Within the scope of this research, the aim is to evaluate the perspectives of real estate companies operating in Türkiye regarding corporate social sustainability and their efforts in this regard. To achieve this aim, a closed-ended survey was conducted targeting real estate companies listed and unlisted on the stock exchange in Turkey. The research is deemed beneficial in shedding light on the perspectives of real estate companies operating in Türkiye towards sustainability and informing policymakers about measures to be taken at the company level to promote sustainability. |
| Keywords: | corporate social sustainability; Esg; real estate companies; sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-240 |
| By: | Lennard Schlattmann (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Policies to mitigate climate change are high on the political agenda and their distributional consequences are actively discussed. This paper makes two contributions to this discussion. First, it empirically identifies the spatial dimension between rural and urban households as important for the distributional consequences of carbon taxes, because the average annual carbon footprint of rural households in Germany is 2.2 tons higher than that of urban households, around 12 percent of the average carbon footprint. Second, it builds a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model to evaluate different policies of recycling carbon tax revenues in terms of their redistributive effects and their political support along the transition to clean technologies. I find that recycling carbon tax revenues as lump-sum transfers redistributes from rural to urban households. For a carbon tax of 300 Euros per ton, the difference in the present value of net transfers is 8, 000 Euros. In contrast, place-based transfers avoid this spatial redistribution without reducing the speed of the transition to clean technologies. This has important implications for the political support for these policies, as place-based transfers allow to set a higher carbon tax under the constraint that the policy is beneficial to a majority of households in both regions. Finally, carbon taxes have sizeable general equilibrium effects on housing prices, increasing those of non-emitting houses by 5 percent, while decreasing those of carbon emitting houses by the same amount. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Inequality, Tax and Transfer policies, Spatial Economics |
| JEL: | E21 H23 Q52 R13 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:345 |
| By: | McNeil, Andrew; Luca, Davide; Lee, Neil |
| Abstract: | Does growing up in a high-economic adversity area matter for individual economic, cultural, and political views? Despite a significant focus upon the effect of birthplace on economic outcomes, there is less evidence on how local economic conditions at birth shape individual attitudes over the long-term. This paper links the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) from English and Welsh respondents with historic localised information on unemployment, our measure of economic adversity. Our results, which control for composition effects, family background, and sorting of people across places, show that being born into a high-unemployment Local Authority has a significant, long-term impact on individuals. Birthplace matters beyond economic outcomes, as being born into a Local Authority of high unemployment makes individuals believe in more government intervention in jobs, less progressive on gender issues, and less likely to support the Conservative Party. |
| Keywords: | lifetime mobility; place of birth; political attitudes; social values; unemployment |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J62 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119354 |
| By: | Di Addario, Sabrina (Bank of Italy); Feng, Zhexin (University of Essex); Serafinelli, Michel (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents direct evidence on how firms' innovation is affected by access to knowledgeable labor through co-worker network connections. We use a unique dataset that matches patent data to administrative employer - employee records from "Third Italy" - a region with many successful industrial clusters. Establishment closures displacing inventors generate supply shocks of knowledgeable labor to firms that employ the inventors' previous co-workers. We estimate event-study models where the treatment is the displacement of a "connected" inventor (i.e., a previous coworker of a current employee of the focal firm). We show that the displacement of a connected inventor significantly increases connected inventors' hiring. Moreover, the improved access to knowledgeable workers raises firms innovative activity. We provide evidence supporting the main hypothesized channel of knowledge transfer through firm-to-firm labor mobility by estimating IV specifications where we use the displacement of a connected inventor as an instrument to hire a connected inventor. Overall, estimates indicate that firms exploit displacements to recruit connected inventors and the improved capacity to employ knowledgeable labor within the network increases innovation. |
| Keywords: | social connections, firm-to-firm labor mobility, patents, establishment closure |
| JEL: | J60 O30 J23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17398 |
| By: | Alexia Lochmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Nidhi Rao; Martin A. Rossi |
| Abstract: | Can South Africa’s segregation policies explain, at least partially, its current poor employment outcomes? To explore this question, we study the long-term impact of the forced resettlement of around 3.5 million black South Africans from their communities to the so-called “homelands” or “Bantustans”, between 1960 and 1991. Our empirical strategy exploits the variability in the magnitude of resettlements between communities. Two main findings. First, the magnitude of outgoing internal migrations was largest for districts close to former homelands. Second, districts close to former homelands have higher rates of non-employed population in 2011. Together the evidence suggests that districts that experienced racial segregation policies most intensely, as measured by outgoing forced resettlements, have worse current employment outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Homelands; Employment; Apartheid; Segregation policies |
| JEL: | J15 J21 J61 J71 N37 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:194 |
| By: | Frank Neffke (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Yang Li |
| Abstract: | A growing body of research documents that the size and growth of an industry in a place depends on how much related activity is found there. This fact is commonly referred to as the "principle of relatedness." However, there is no consensus on why we observe the principle of relatedness, how best to determine which industries are related or how this empirical regularity can help inform local industrial policy. We perform a structured search over tens of thousands of specifications to identify robust – in terms of out-of-sample predictions – ways to determine how well industries fit the local economies of US cities. To do so, we use data that allow us to derive relatedness from observing which industries co-occur in the portfolios of establishments, firms, cities and countries. Different portfolios yield different relatedness matrices, each of which help predict the size and growth of local industries. However, our specification search not only identifes ways to improve the performance of such predictions, but also reveals new facts about the principle of relatedness and important trade-offs between predictive performance and interpretability of relatedness patterns. We use these insights to deepen our theoretical understanding of what underlies path-dependent development in cities and expand existing policy frameworks that rely on inter-industry relatedness analysis. |
| Keywords: | Economic Complexity, Structural Transformation, Cities |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:211 |
| By: | Claudio Schilter; Samuel Lüthi; Stefan C. Wolter |
| Abstract: | We merge experimental data on competitiveness of a large sample of students with their complete educational history for up to ten years after the initial assessment. Exploiting quasi-random class assignments, we find that having competitive peers as classmates makes students choose and secure positions in higher-paying occupations. These occupations are also more challenging and more popular. On the cost side, competitive peers do not lead to a lower probability of graduating from the subsequent job-specific education, but they significantly increase the probability of requiring extra time to do so. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, competitiveness, occupational choice |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11342 |
| By: | Leanne Nam (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Unemployment leads to large and persistent income losses for workers. Higher unemployment in the labor market therefore has spillover effects on the housing market. This paper studies such spillover effects from both empirical and theoretical perspectives. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), I show that a 1 percentage point increase in unemployment rate leads to a 1.55% decline in housing prices. Theoretically, I develop an overlapping generations model with a housing market. The calibrated model replicates the empirically observed spillover effect for the U.S. economy. Higher income uncertainty is the main driver of the spillover effect, rather than actual income losses. The spillover effect transmits one-third of the welfare losses of workers due to higher unemployment in the labor market to older, retired households by reducing their housing wealth. Younger workers benefit in part by buying houses at depressed prices. The magnitude of the spillover effect is shaped by the demographic structure of the population and the specific age groups affected by unemployment shocks. I find that increasing the generosity of unemployment insurance stabilizes the housing market, although it only partially mitigates the spillover effect. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, Housing demand, Portfolio choice, Overlapping generations |
| JEL: | G11 R21 E21 E24 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:344 |
| By: | Sotiris Tsolacos; Tatiana Franus |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the performance of a range of methodologies to forecast real estate prices. We compare the forecast accuracy of econometric and time series models to machine learning algorithms. The target series is the yield impact a metric which is based on changes in yields (cap rates) and a prime determinant of capital value or price changes (appreciation returns). We focus on the main sectors – offices, retail and industrials – in the UK and we perform the analysis with monthly data taken from MSCI. Using monthly MSCI data results in a sample that begins in 1987. The econometric and time series models include ARMA, ARMAX, stepwise and Lasso regressions. Machine learning methods include random forest, XGBoost, and support vector machines. We use a large set of economic, financial and survey data to predict movements in yield impact. We assess the forecast performance of the selected methodologies over different time horizons, one, three, six, and twelve months. The forecast evaluation follows conventional forecast evaluation metrics. This includes basic measures such as the mean error, mean absolute error and RMSE and more sophisticated measures such Diebold-Mariano tests. We are particularly interested in forecasting gains arising from the combination of forecasts from different methods.The results have significant practical value. The forecast assessment can pick up directional changes and be used for price discovery. Real estate data in the private market are produced with a lag (even monthly data) and early information about changes in prices are valuable to real estate investors and lenders. The study aims to identify the methods or the combination of methods with the best predictive ability and focus investor attention to these methods. |
| Keywords: | econometric models; forecasting assessment; Machine Learning; Property pricing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-251 |
| By: | Diego De la Fuente (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer BN19RH) |
| Abstract: | This research studies the connection between income and criminal engagement. Focusing on the impact of remittance transfers on diverse categories of crime, the study concentrates on Mexico, a country characterized by high levels of remittances and unique crime dynamics. The estimates show through a combination of methods and using a quarterly panel data of municipalities for the period of 2013 to 2023- that higher income transfers have a significant reducing effect on violent crime, but also an inducing effect on property theft. The results also show that the effect of the income transfer increases with the transfer size and when accompanied with higher levels of social deprivation within the mu-nicipality. The analysis aims to offer lessons for scholars and policymakers on the relationship between welfare outside crime and crime participation. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Income transfers, Remittances |
| JEL: | K42 J4 F24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:1024 |
| By: | Moritz Goldbeck; Valentin Lindlacher |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of early internet availability at basic speeds on local economic development in remote areas of developing countries by analyzing nighttime light emissions across towns in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we exploit submarine cable arrivals, which established countrywide internet connections, and the rollout of the national backbones, which defines internet access within countries. Estimating on incidentally connected mid-sized towns, we find that early internet availability increases nighttime light intensity by 10 percent. We consider increased employment as the main explanation. Our findings highlight the importance of closing the digital divide for regional development. |
| Keywords: | ICT, economic development nighttime lights, Sub-Saharan Africa, cybercafé, internet access, employment, submarine cables |
| JEL: | O18 R11 L96 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11308 |
| By: | Belloc, Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Telework has gained increasing popularity in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, and is often considered a work practice that contributes to environmental sustainability by reducing commuting trips. However, the existing literature presents mixed findings regarding its potential effects on other types of travel, such as leisure and personal care trips. This paper examines the relationship between telework and daily travel time, utilizing data from the 2023 Extended Light Diary Digital Instrument (ELiDDI) survey, a nationally representative time use survey conducted in the UK in March 2023. Our findings indicate that teleworkers spend fewer minutes (e.g., 61 minutes) traveling per day compared to those working away from home, a result that remains robust even after excluding daily commuting time, suggesting that telework may lead to significant daily travel time savings. Further exploration reveals that telework is primarily related to reduced travel time for personal and housework-related activities, particularly among male teleworkers. These findings suggest that promoting telework policies could be an effective strategy not only for reducing commuting trips but also for achieving broader reductions in daily travel time, which may contribute to sustainability goals in the transportation sector and alleviate transportation-related environmental impacts. |
| Keywords: | daily travel time, travel purposes, telework, time use, ELiDDI data, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | J21 J22 R41 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17413 |
| By: | Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Sören Kliem (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Malte Sandner (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/34 |
| By: | Docquier, Frédéric (LISER); Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis (Bangor University) |
| Abstract: | We test whether the level of right-wing populism in a given country influences the size and skill composition of its immigration and emigration flows. To do so, we use an instrumental variable approach, where we instrument variations in right-wing populism using a combination of collective memory, represented by the average vote share of right-wing parties between 1900 and 1950, and trigger variables, such as economic insecurity shocks. Our results show that an increase in right-wing populism leads to a decrease in the inflow of college-educated migrants, and this relationship is twice as strong as the effect on the inflow of low-skilled migrants. To a lesser extent, we also find that right-wing populism leads to an increase in high-skilled emigration, while leaving low-skilled emigration unaffected. These effects are not necessarily associated with the election of a populist government or stricter migration policies, suggesting that both in- and out-migration decisions may be influenced by the broader political climate and prevailing voter attitudes. As a result, right-wing populism tends to lower the average educational attainment of both immigrants and left-behind voters, which helps explain the persistence of right-wing populism despite its proven negative impact on the economy. |
| Keywords: | immigration, emigration, selection, right-wing populism |
| JEL: | D72 F22 F52 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17402 |
| By: | Michael P Keane (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Xiangling Liu (University of New South Wales) |
| Date: | 2024–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/48 |
| By: | Blank, Michael (Stanford U); Maghzian, Omeed (Harvard U) |
| Abstract: | Should policymakers aim to directly preserve existing jobs during recessions? The answer depends on whether greater job loss exacerbates labor market frictions more than it facilitates productive labor reallocation. This paper provides new evidence on the former by examining the general equilibrium effects of job destruction—establishment-level employment contractions—on labor market conditions following recessionary shocks. To isolate these labor market spillovers from changes in local productivity, we combine administrative data on employment relationships with variation in the idiosyncratic layoff practices of large firms across local labor markets in the United States. Workers who lose their jobs when local job destruction rates are one percentage point higher than average experience a persistent $700 (1.2%) larger reduction in annual earnings, driven by lower employment in the short term and lower-paying positions in the medium term. These spillover effects account for one-third of the increased costs of job loss in recessions compared to expansions and imply that each marginal job loser imposes an annual cost of approximately $17, 000 on other workers in the same labor market. To explore policy implications, we develop a general equilibrium search model featuring heterogeneous firm productivity, endogenous separations, and human capital depreciation in unemployment. To account for the magnitude and persistence of our spillover estimates, the model requires that an increase in job loss reduces the job-finding rate, limiting workers’ human capital growth and their reallocation to more productive firms. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4222 |
| By: | John (Jianqiu) Bai; William R. Kerr; Chi Wan; Alptug Y. Yorulmaz |
| Abstract: | We study funding gaps on Kickstarter across multiple ethnic groups from 2009-2021. Scaling the concept of racially salient events, we quantify the close co-movement of minority funding gaps in crowd-funding to inflamed political rhetoric surrounding migration. The funding gap for minorities more than doubles in the most inflamed periods compared to baseline. Results are especially acute for Hispanic creators. Distant, mostly white backers are typically important for projects reaching a critical threshold of funding support. Retractions in support for minority creators during tense periods are even spatially, as present in liberal cities as conservative ones. |
| JEL: | D26 G23 J15 L26 M13 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33097 |
| By: | Yang, Dongkyu |
| Abstract: | The idea that labor scarcity can induce economic development has long been hypothesized (Hicks, 1932; Habakkuk, 1962), but the evidence remains limited. This paper examines how the Second Great Migration (1940–1970) spurred structural change in the American South between 1970 and 2010. Empirical results using shift-share instruments show that out-migration incentivized capital investment and capital-augmenting technical change, increasing capital per worker and output in both agriculture and manufacturing, at least until 2010. Labor was reallocated from agriculture to non-agriculture. I then develop a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that allows for substitution between factors of production, factor-biased technical change, and factor abundance-based trade to characterize this process. The quantitative analysis indicates that labor-capital substitution played a major role in adjustments to South-to-North migration. |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nt6kg |
| By: | Anton-Tejon, Marcos; Barge-Gil, Andrés; Albahari, Alberto |
| Abstract: | The interest in regional innovation policies has increased in recent years. Science and Technology Parks (STPs) are one of the most widespread regional innovation policies worldwide. They are considered a catalyst for regional innovation because they constitute a source of knowledge spillovers and a mechanism for knowledge transfer. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effect of the adoption of the STP policy on regional innovation performance. To this end, we build a provincial dataset for Spain covering 37 years and implement a difference-in-differences approach taking advantage of the staggered adoption of the STP policy and the fact that some provinces do not have an STP yet. The main results show that STPs increase provincial patents by 49.8% in years 6-10 after the adoption of the policy and by 79.7% in years 11-15.This result is robust to different assumptions and methodological choices. In addition, we find that the increase in patents does not come at the cost of lower patent quality, that STPs perform similarly in more or less advanced provinces, and that approximately 57% of the effect comes through STP spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Science and Technology Parks; innovation policy evaluation; regional effects; spillovers; patents; diff-in-diff |
| JEL: | O30 O31 O32 O38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122467 |
| By: | David Castells-Quintana (Department of Applied Economics, Univ Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain); Roberto Gasquez (Department of Economic History, Institutions, Politics and World Economy. Univ de Barcelona, 08034, Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The connection between sports and development has long been highlighted in academia and policy debates. But the extent to which the success of professional sport teams can spur economic dynamism has hardly been studied in the literature. In this paper, we look at the potential connection between sporting success and economic development. We focus on club football and economic dynamism in European regions. To do so, we build a unique dataset with information for 395 football clubs, matched with economic information for 295 NUTS3 European regions, for the 2000-2020 period. Using several econometric techniques, we find robust evidence of a positive connection between club success and regional economic performance. This connection seems especially strong when sporting success comes from relatively modest clubs. |
| Keywords: | sport; football; regions; Europe; development. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2402 |
| By: | Hanemaaijer, Kyra (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Ketel, Nadine (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Marie, Olivier (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | When decision-makers overemphasize salient features under limited attention, biased decisions can result in settings in which decisions should be unbiased. We exploit a sudden shock in the salience of individuals of Moroccan descent in the Netherlands to test the vulnerability of decisions of various actors in the Dutch criminal justice system to biases. Using high-quality data on decisions made from arrest through appeal in the Dutch CJS, we find that the sentence length of individuals of Moroccan descent convicted of a crime increased by 79% after the shock. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that more-experienced judges mitigate this effect. Finally, we find suggestive evidence of longer-term costs for defendants of Moroccan descent in that their labor income drops by 40% over the four years following their judgment of conviction. |
| Keywords: | salience, minority, criminal justice system, Netherlands |
| JEL: | J15 K42 D83 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17396 |
| By: | Barthélémy Bonadio |
| Abstract: | What determines the relative gains from improving different parts of a transportation network? Ports and roads are key components of a country’s infrastructure to access international markets. I provide a framework to jointly estimate the quality of different ports and trade costs on normal roads and expressways. I then build a general equilibrium model of international and internal trade with port and road infrastructure to assess the relative importance of ports versus roads in shaping international market access, and estimate it using a novel transaction-level export dataset for India. A key elasticity of route switching governs the relative gains from port vs road improvements. I find that returns of improving ports are higher than those for roads under the existing Indian infrastructure network, but improvements in ports and roads have different distributional implications. |
| Keywords: | ports, infrastructure, market access, India |
| JEL: | F10 R40 H54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11383 |
| By: | Soyoung Kim (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo); Yuki Higuchi (Sophia University); Kei Kajisa (Kyoto University); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economcis, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Despite emerging academic interest in place-based policies, their impact on long-term structural transformation remains underinvestigated, especially in developing countries. This study explores the combined effects of infrastructure development (highway, industrial park, and school establishments) in transforming agrarian communities in the Philippines using 40 years of family dynasty data, combined with satellite imagery and public administrative data. The results suggest that infrastructure development has led to structural transformations by increasing the probability of male employment in modern sectors and facilitating female human capital investments. Additionally, both the demand and supply sides of labor are key to successful modernization through place-based policies. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2024cf1237 |
| By: | Eduardo A. Haddad; Inácio F. Araújo |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a synthetic view of the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of the economic sectors and regions that make up the Moroccan economy, taking into account the current economic structure and production technologies. Therefore, the potential effects must be understood as signals to think about interventions aimed at redirecting the desired trajectories of sustainable development. The application of the tools developed to give scientific support to this analysis reveals the current structure of Morocco’s regional economies, inserted into the context of the national and world economies. The intricate web of interrelationships between the different sectors of each region’s productive apparatus— manifested by its supply chains, the generation of income by sectors, and their expenditures— is duly represented. Each of the 20 sectors into which the Moroccan economy was divided produces distinct effects on the productive system as a whole, duly measured by the instruments developed. Likewise, when analyzing the 12 regional economies one by one, one can assess their multidimensional impacts in the context of an integrated interregional system. Finally, to implement the hierarchical analysis based on pre-defined weights for the different structural indicators considered in the study, a tool was developed that provides a hierarchy of sectors (regions) most likely to contribute to the dimensions of development most closely associated with revealed preferences of the actors involved in the decision-making process. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_07-23 |
| By: | Sarah Bui; Timothy Freeman; Farah Kaddah (Harvard's Growth Lab); Lucas Lamby (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Yang Li; Tim O'Brien (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Eric S. M. Protzer (Center for Global Development); Alejandro Rueda-Sanz; Ricardo Villasmil (Harvard's Growth Lab); Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab) |
| Abstract: | This report sets out to understand if the economy of the State of Wyoming is positioned to grow into the future. To do this, the report begins by investigating the past. To know where the state economy could be headed, and how that direction may be improved, it is critical to understand how the state developed the economic structure and drivers that it has today. Thus, Wyoming’s economic trajectory is explored over the long, medium, and short term. From this investigation, we find that Wyoming faces an overall growth problem, but we also find a high degree of variation in economic engines and growth prospects across the state. The problem that this report identifies is that the composition of economic activities is not positioned to sustain a high quality of life across all parts of the state. “Across all parts of the state” is an essential part of the problem statement for Wyoming. While some local and regional economies in the state are growing and bumping up against identifiable constraints, other local and regional economies are experiencing sustained contractions and will require new sources of growth in order to retain (or expand) population and high quality of life. Since economic dynamics vary significantly across the state, analysis is conducted in as much geographic detail as possible. By combining historical and geographic dimensions of growth, this report aims to inform pathways for sustained and inclusive prosperity across the of Wyoming. |
| Keywords: | Wyoming, Green Growth, Remoteness, Telework |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:212 |
| By: | Kieran Marray |
| Abstract: | Empirical researchers often estimate spillover effects by fitting linear or non-linear regression models to sampled network data. Here, we show that common sampling schemes induce dependence between observed and unobserved spillovers. Due to this dependence, spillover estimates are biased, often upwards. We then show how researchers can construct unbiased estimates of spillover effects by rescaling using aggregate network statistics. Our results can be used to bound true effect sizes, determine robustness of estimates to missingness, and construct estimates when missingness depends on treatment. We apply our results to re-estimate the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks between US public firms, and peer effects amongst USAFA cadets. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.17154 |
| By: | E. Jason Baron; Joseph J. Doyle Jr.; Natalia Emanuel; Peter Hull; Joseph P. Ryan |
| Abstract: | Studies of racial discrimination often condition on endogenous measures of race or on earlier decisions that might themselves be affected by discrimination. We develop quasi-experimental tools for estimating the impact of racial misclassification on measures of unwarranted disparity, and for designing policy responses to unwarranted disparity that account for discrimination in earlier decisions. We apply these tools to the setting of child protective services (CPS), where previous work in our context has found that Black children are placed into foster care at higher rates than white children with identical potential for future maltreatment. CPS investigators misclassify 8–9% of Black and white children relative to their self-reported race, and this misclassification obscures around 24% of unwarranted disparity in foster care placement decisions. Policies that use algorithmic recommendations to eliminate total unwarranted disparity in placement rates are also meaningfully affected by earlier discrimination in CPS call screening. |
| JEL: | C26 I31 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33104 |
| By: | Moamen Gouda; Jingyeong Song |
| Abstract: | This study empirically explores the economic, political and cultural, and socio-demographic determinants of Koreans’ attitudes toward immigrants. Employing waves 6 and 7 of World Values Survey (WVS), our descriptive statistics show that Koreans, on average, are becoming more acceptable to foreigners living in Korea. Our results show that economic determinants, as well as educational attainment, were consistently playing a significant role in shaping Koreans’ perception of immigrants. Socio-demographic factors and only a few political variables were significant in the period 2017-2020. We discuss this result and argue that, despite the looming demographic crisis, Koreans’ attitude towards immigration is based on economic underpinnings rather than on political ones. |
| Keywords: | immigration, South Korea, World Values Survey, attitudes |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11354 |
| By: | Mohebbian, Mana |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the feasibility of developing a holistic indicator to assess and communicate the social sustainability and quality of life in Vancouver. Despite the availability of various specific metrics, there is a noted absence of a comprehensive framework that integrates these metrics to provide a singular, actionable view of the city's progress towards its social sustainability goals. The City of Vancouver currently employs 45 population-level indicators under its Healthy City Strategy, demonstrating the city's commitment to transparent and data-driven governance. However, these indicators, while effective individually, do not collectively provide a complete picture of the city's overall health across various dimensions such as public health, housing, education, and environmental sustainability. The aim of this research was to identify a holistic indicator that encompasses multiple dimensions of social sustainability to simplify assessments and improve strategic planning. Through a desktop review of 70 existing indicators and consultations with experts, two models were identified as particularly promising: the Greater London Authority's (GLA) Wellbeing and Sustainability Measure, and the City of Calgary's Equity Index (CEI). These models offer robust frameworks that prioritize equity, accessibility, and stakeholder involvement, aligning closely with Vancouver's urban development goals. This work highlights the need for an overarching metric that reflects the interdependencies among various domains, ensuring that progress in one area does not undermine another. By leveraging insights from this research, Vancouver can enhance its policy implementation and community engagement, moving closer to achieving a balanced and sustainable urban environment. The proposed holistic indicator will also support the city in benchmarking against other urban centers and refining its strategic initiatives based on quantifiable metrics. |
| Date: | 2024–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dmqbr |
| By: | Eloiza Regina Ferreira de Almeida; Veneziano C. Araujo; Solange Gonçalves |
| Abstract: | Few studies analyze how the urban wage premium is different for informal workers, and their results are controversial. This paper aims to clarify the reason for this mixed evidence, evaluating how workers’ heterogeneity in terms of labor contract - formal or informal - and occupational position - as wage-earner or self-employed - may impact the magnitude and direction of the UWP estimates. We address this investigation by analyzing the Brazilian labor market using the PNADC (IBGE) longitudinal database for the period from 2012 to 2019. The results show that formal workers present an increasing UWP according to the urban scale, as seen in many previous studies for developed or developing countries. In its turn, informal workers UWP is double the formal ones but is reduced in denser areas. Thus, our study shows previous UWP studies that focus only on formal workers could underestimate the magnitude of this premium for the whole labor market and that disregarding the groups of workers hides the complexity inherent of their insertion in the large urban labor markets. Also, different estimations highlight some mechanisms on the UWP explanation, such as sorting and matching. These results add new insights to the UWP in Brazil, signaling the importance of analyzing the whole labor market. |
| Keywords: | Urban wage premium; Informality; Workers' heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R23 J46 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon25 |
| By: | Schroeter, Sofia (University of Lausanne); Lalive, Rafael (University of Lausanne); Karunanethy, Kalaivani (University of Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the labor supply responses of parents to anticipated school closures due to school holidays and unanticipated school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland. Using the variation in the timing of school holidays by region, we find that while both fathers and mothers reduce hours worked in response to school holiday closures, fathers reduce theirs much more than mothers. To identify the effects of pandemic school closures, we focus on marginal workers – those in occupations that were resilient to the pandemic labor demand shocks but had limited ability to work remotely and therefore, faced the greatest challenge in meeting increased child care needs. We find that the unanticipated pandemic school closures reduced the hours worked of parents somewhat less than for workers without children. We find almost no negative effects on mothers, while for fathers, we find that their labor supply was affected less than that of men without children. In our heterogeneity analyses, we discover that fathers of older children and/or with greater ability to work remotely were the least affected by these school closures. This suggests that parents were able to successfully accommodate the increased child care needs due to lack of in-person schooling without any negative impact on their labor supply. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, school closures, lockdown measures, parental labor supply, gender |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17371 |
| By: | Fieke Noordam; Monique Arkesteijn |
| Abstract: | The (re)construction of hospitals is a complicated process because of the wide range of activities by different users in these buildings. When real estate managers and designers team up with hospital stakeholders, it results in better project outcomes. This collaboration benefits from appropriate visualisation tools. Both physical mock-ups and virtual visualisation tools are no longer an exception in such projects with various stakeholders. Therefore, maximising the contribution of the visualisation tools becomes more critical. Currently, there is a limited knowledge on how visualisation tools are used best to involve the stakeholders within hospital (re)construction projects. This paper addresses the following research question: ‘How can visualisation tools contribute to the involvement of stakeholders in hospital (re)construction project?’ A systematic literature review and three hospital case studies, including 21 stakeholder interviews, have been conducted. The resulting findings are validated by an external expert panel. The findings show that visualisation tools support the involvement of hospital stakeholders by enforcing communication and improving stakeholders understanding. The visualisation tools positively impact: 1) gathering stakeholders design feedback; 2) forming compromises; 3) creating design support and enthusiasm. In general, visualisation tools have a positive effect on stakeholders' involvement; however, it depends on when in the design process and for what purpose the tools are used. Inadequate use of virtual visualisation tools can mislead stakeholders since virtual visualisations show design details that might not be decided yet. The physical mock-ups and virtual visualisation tools have different purposes and complimentary benefits in hospital (re)construction projects. Using the visualisation tools, depending on the to be served purpose, one should gradually show more realistic visualisations. A combination of visualisation tools has the highest impact when in early design phases, coarse physical mock-ups are used, and virtual visualisation tools reveal refinements at a later design phase. |
| Keywords: | Hospitals; stakeholder involvement; visualisation tools; VR |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-246 |
| By: | Stanley, Zofia C.; Topaz, Chad M. |
| Abstract: | Opportunity youth—individuals aged 16 to 24 who are disconnected from education and employment due to significant barriers—constitute a sizable yet underserved demographic whose marginalization leads to substantial social and economic costs. This paper demonstrates how data science can be harnessed for social good by mapping the distribution of opportunity youth across different regions. We develop an Opportunity Youth Index by integrating fragmented data from sources such as the American Community Survey, the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System, FBI Crime Data, and Bureau of Justice Statistics incarceration reports. Focusing on four key indicators—disconnected youth, youth in foster care, justice-impacted youth, and children with an incarcerated parent—we employ statistical methods and computational techniques to estimate local concentrations of opportunity youth. The resulting index provides insights for policymakers and community organizations, highlighting areas where targeted interventions can make the most impact. This work illustrates the potential of data science to address complex social issues and is presented in an accessible manner to engage a younger audience. |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:anwtf |
| By: | Kishan Shah (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Federico Sturzenegger |
| Abstract: | South Africa’s labor market exhibits a unique equilibrium with one of the highest unemployment rates in the world and yet a low level of informal employment. The unemployment rate has remained high and persistent over recent decades, in spite of the formal demise of the apartheid regime and subsequent transition to democracy in 1994. This paper uses a matching model of the labor market to argue that spatial considerations combined with low productivity of informal work may be responsible for such an outcome. Spatial dispersion inherited from the apartheid regime thins the labor market, creating exclusion and perpetuating spatial segregation. In most developing countries, the result would be higher employment in informal or own account employment. However, with low productivity in the informal sector, the high rate of exclusion shows itself in higher unemployment rates instead. Transportation costs and housing deregulation may become key factors in improving the working of the labor market in South Africa especially if it is not possible to raise informal productivity. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, labor markets |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:195 |
| By: | Barabasch, Anton (Friedrich Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany); Cygan-Rehm, Kamila (Dresden University of Technology); Leibing, Andreas (Dresden University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-run consequences of a later school entry for personality traits. For identification, we exploit the statutory cutoff rules for school enrollment in Germany within a regression discontinuity design. We find that relatively older school starters have persistently lower levels of neuroticism in adulthood. This effect is entirely driven by women, which has important implications for gender gaps in the labor market, as women typically score significantly higher on neuroticism at all stages of life, which puts them at a disadvantage. Our results suggest that family decisions regarding compliance with enrollment cutoffs may have lasting implications for gender gaps in socio-emotional skills. |
| Keywords: | school starting age, personality, socio-emotional skills, education |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 D19 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17387 |
| By: | Lukas Rosenberger; W. Walker Hanlon; Carl Hallmann |
| Abstract: | How did Britain sustain faster rates of economic growth than comparable European countries, such as France, during the Industrial Revolution? We argue that Britain possessed an important but underappreciated innovation advantage: British inventors worked in technologies that were more central within the innovation network. We offer a new approach for measuring the innovation network using patent data from Britain and France in the late-18th and early-19th century. We show that the network influenced innovation outcomes and demonstrate that British inventors worked in more central technologies within the innovation network than French inventors. Drawing on recently developed theoretical tools, and using a novel estimation strategy, we quantify the implications for technology growth rates in Britain compared to France. Our results indicate that the shape of the innovation network, and the location of British inventors within it, explains an important share of the more rapid technological change and industrial growth in Britain during the Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | industrial revolution, innovation network, patents, economic growth |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11299 |
| By: | Finstein, Blaine; Ash, Konstantin; Carnahan, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Carter (2024) examines the historical conditions that shape protection versus assimilation for indigenous communities, arguing that state-led conscription programs are one such factor. In a natural experiment leveraging conscription for a 1920s Peruvian highway designed to replicate a pre-colonial road system (Qhapaq Ñan), Carter finds through a geographic regression discontinuity design that eligibility for state conscription increased the likelihood of a municipality having an indigenous movement by about 30 percentage points (approximately .75 standard deviations) and scores on an omnibus accommodation measure by about .3 items (approximately .4 standard deviations). The omnibus measure includes the number of institutions that an indigenous community reports preserving (increased by .3 items on a 7 point scale, or .25 standard deviations), likelihood of having a communal land title (increased by 12 percentage points, or .3 standard deviations), and likelihood of registration with the government (increased by 9 percentage points, or .3 standard deviations). All point estimates are significant at the .1% level. We successfully computationally reproduce all main claims of the paper but find inconsistencies between the map of the road presented by Carter and that used by Franco et al. (2021) that affect its passage through a small number of municipalities. In order to investigate whether these municipalities drive the main findings without the ability to identify municipalities in the data, we drop municipalities iteratively and re-run the analysis, finding only minor changes in coefficient estimates across subsets. In addition, we explore a number of sensitivity analyses for the regression discontinuity design that vary the functional form, vary the bandwidth window, and use the Rosenbaum method for window selection. While the results remain consistent under all analyses, we recommend for further research to recode treated municipalities on the basis of the alternative road map and explore the as-if random assumption in light of evidence linking proximity to the precolonial road to various economic and political outcomes. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:176 |
| By: | Amer Ahmed (The World Bank); Esther Bartl (Department of Economics(PHD), University of Sussex, Falmer BN19RH , The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Bangladeshi migrant workers face extremely high migrations costs, and often finance their migration episodes by incurring substantial debt. These costs have been found to be associated with persistent indebtedness, even after return. Individuals from poorer households have been found to prefer loans provided by a bank or money lender. At the same time, older individuals who not qualify for formal loans prefer borrowing from family and friends. The size of migration costs and time since return are major determinants of loan repayment. A one percentage point increase in migration costs may reduce the likelihood for full loan repayment by 12.9 percentage points. Early return may reduce the probability of full loan repayment by 7.32 percentage points compared to planned return. Presence of collateral may reduce the already repaid loan amount by around 30 percentage points, but implies that indebted households are putting their productive assets at risk |
| Keywords: | labor migration, migration cost, migration loan, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | F22 O15 D14 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0824 |
| By: | Biehler, Nadine; Kipp, David; Koch, Anne |
| Abstract: | Migration cooperation with third countries is thriving. Bilateral agreements with countries of origin, host countries and transit countries are increasingly seen as important instruments for overcoming the challenges associated with immigration. With the Special Commissioner for Migration Agreements, the German government has created a focal point to bring together the political objectives in the areas of return and labour recruitment into one comprehensive approach. Initial agreements were quickly reached in the hope of sending a clear signal to the electorate. Beyond their symbolic effect, the agreements have the potential not only to be the starting point for long-term, sustainable migration policy cooperation, but also to contribute towards the development of the countries of origin. In order to realise this potential, a better reconciliation of interests between the respective partner countries and Germany, capacity building in the area of recruitment and more consistency in external migration policy are required. |
| Keywords: | migration cooperation with third countries, countries of origin, host countries, transit countries, labour recruitment, Special Commissioner for Migration Agreements |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:305236 |
| By: | Baron, Juan; Lee, Ling Jessica Diana; Tamagnan, Marie Evane |
| Abstract: | Guidance on designing and implementing school grants (both uncondition al and conditional) is crucial. This note, while not a comprehensive guide on school grants, contains a small subset of practical questions alongside country examples for practitioners to consider when designing or improving a school grants scheme. |
| Date: | 2024–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdgens:189314 |
| By: | Bratti, Massimiliano (Università degli Studi di Milano); Granato, Silvia (European Commission, Joint Research Centre); Havari, Enkelejda (IÉSEG School of Management) |
| Abstract: | Exams play a key role in a student's learning process at university, and their organization may affect student performance. A high number of retakes, for instance, could encourage procrastination or reduce effort for each attempt. This article investigates the effects of a policy change at a major Italian university that reduced the number of exam retakes allowed per subject from six to three. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that this policy significantly improved first-year outcomes, including lower dropout rates, higher exam pass rates, and increased credit accumulation. We conduct several robustness checks showing that only a small fraction of these improvements can be attributed to changes in the average quality of students enrolled following the reform. Additionally, the policy contributed to an increase in on-time graduation rates, which was the main objective of the reform, without harming student GPA. This study shows that implementing a cost-effective policy, such as limiting exam retakes, can substantially enhance student progression, reducing age at graduation. |
| Keywords: | student outcomes, exams, retakes, university, Italy |
| JEL: | I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17400 |
| By: | Diego A. Martin (Harvard's Growth Lab); Dario A. Romero |
| Abstract: | Did the COVID-19 pandemic create an opportunity to earn population control through illegal violence? We argue that criminal groups in Colombia portray as de facto police by using mass killings to reduce the COVID-19 outbreak. They used massacres as a threat to enforce social distance measures in places they considered worth decreasing mobility. Our results from an Augmented Synthetic Control Method model estimated that commuting to parks fell 20% more in areas with massacres than in places without mass killings. In addition, we do not find a decline in mobility to workplaces and COVID-19 deaths after the first mass killing. These findings are congruent with the hypothesis that illegal armed groups used fear to enforce mobility restrictions without hurting economic activities and their sources of revenue. However, violence slightly impacted the virus’ spread. Treated areas had a decline of 35 cases per 100, 000 inhabitants four months after the first massacre. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Social Distance, Lockdowns, Massacres, Governance |
| JEL: | H75 D74 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:220 |
| By: | Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo J. (World Bank); Yanez, Gunnar Poppe (Johns Hopkins University) |
| Abstract: | Developing countries face significant challenges in increasing women's labor force participation and improving job quality, partly due to the substantial presence of the informal sector. This paper examines the case of Bolivia, which has the highest level of informality in Latin America. We empirically investigate whether the expansion of children's access to education in Bolivia provides an additional explanation for the reduction in female participation in the informal sector, as children attending school would require less parental supervision. Using a structural model in which mothers decide to participate in formal markets at a cost inversely related to the likelihood of their children being enrolled in school, we find that the rise in primary school enrollment in Bolivia explains up to 40% of the decline in female workers under age 40 in informal markets. Our findings contribute to the growing body of evidence on the positive impact of children's access to education on women's labor market outcomes in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Bolivia, female labor force participation, structural estimation |
| JEL: | C62 D13 J12 J13 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17429 |
| By: | Ndolo, Victoria; Chimwala, Dalitso; Musa, Frank; Bempong, Silas; Bannerman, Boateng; Nwabuikwu, Odiche; McCloskey, Pete; Folson, Gloria; Gelli, Aulo |
| Abstract: | Reaching over 400 million children for investments of $50 billion a year, school meals are popular safety nets with documented impacts across social protection, education and nutrition dimensions1. Governments have linked school meals to food system transformation, where public procurement is used as an outlet for farmers, through Home-Grown School Meal Program (HGSMP) approaches. HGSMPs have the potential to improve children’s diets, whilst also providing a market for farmers. Implementing school meals that meet quality standards, including food, nutrition, smallholder sourcing and environmental requirements is critical. In practice, data on the quality of school meal delivery is scarce. There is also an opportunity to improve HGSMP menus, optimizing on foods that are nutritious, locally available and “climate-smart†. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence; capacity development; feasibility studies; monitoring; school feeding; Africa; Eastern Africa; Malawi |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:158339 |
| By: | Voll, Kyra Johanna |
| Abstract: | The world of work is undergoing a massive transformation, accompanied by uncertainties for society, employees and companies. In particular, the volatile business environment, the shortage of skilled workers and the continuous development of information and communication technologies present companies with new challenges. In order to meet these changes, adjustments need to be made not only to companies’ core business but also to their corporate real estate strategy. In addition, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, employees increasingly demand the ability to work from other locations besides the office, such as at home or from anywhere. As part of the transformation and in response to these challenges, hybrid working environments have emerged in many companies. Hybrid working environments are characterized by the fact that employees of a company choose their workplace independently and flexibly and work from there chosen location with the support of digital technologies. This expansion of the workplace beyond company boundaries and the addition of digital space increases complexity and requires changes to the physical organization of work. The function and discipline best equipped to react to these challenges is workplace management. Workplace management has the task of developing workplace strategies that aim to provide employees with the best possible support in their work, regardless of where that work takes place, taking into account the interests of a wide range of stakeholders. The aim of workplace management is to manage all relevant resources to achieve the best outcomes for individual employees (e.g., productivity, well-being, satisfaction) and the organization, keeping results in line with company objectives. As a result, the main question for workplace management in this great transformation of the working world, is how the physical organization of work in hybrid working environments can be deployed efficiently in line with human and spatial resources. To this end, it is essential to find out how working in different locations relates to employee work success, what preferences employees have and how this knowledge can be used to develop a workplace strategy incorporating physical and digital space. It is also necessary to understand how offices can be flexibly adapted to meet new needs, creating added value for employees in hybrid working environments and ensuring the successful survival of the organization in volatile market environments. In research and practice, however, there is still a lack of comprehensive knowledge about hybrid working environments' processes, structures and interdependencies. Even in individual workplaces, it is not sufficiently understood how the workplace and the work of employees with knowledge-intensive tasks, i.e., knowledge workers, are connected. In order to optimally manage hybrid work environments and design the physical organization of work in the interests of successful employees, a holistic understanding of the workplace in hybrid work environments is required, which can be viewed as a workplace ecosystem. Using Bronfenbrenner's ecosystemic approach, this dissertation provides a systematic overview of the workplace in hybrid work environments. Based on five articles, the different physical workplaces (work from home, office, workation) and the digital space are analyzed in terms of employees’ preferences and outcomes and the effects on workplace management. The first article uses decision experiments to examine knowledge workers' work success and workplace choice in hybrid working environments. This analysis serves to demonstrate the relationship between work success and workplace choice on the one hand, and to identify determinants influencing the two factors on the other. The implications enable companies to design a more informed hybrid work strategy, and they allow developers and designers of information and communication systems to learn how digital tools can be adapted to support hybrid work in a more targeted manner. The second article examines working from home. Structural equation modeling shows which workplace characteristics at home determine work success and examines whether interferences with the private environment influence work results. In addition, the study shows that differences between two countries affect employee outcomes when work-from-home. Companies can learn how to configure the home workplace to achieve positive employee and business results from these findings. The third article deals with a workplace of the so-called ‘third places’, in this case, Workation. This article shows how private, social and professional life and work interact in this form of flexible working. A conceptual analysis makes it possible to define and classify workation, allowing it to be placed in the scientific discourse for the first time. The study provides important implications for research and practice in workplace management, tourism and regional and urban planning. The fourth article focuses on the digital space, a fundamental prerequisite for hybrid work. The study analyzes individual, corporate, and social determinants that influence employees' intention to adopt their company's digital workplace. The implications enable companies to manage the interface between physical and digital space in a more targeted manner to exploit the full potential. The fifth article deals with the traditional office space and its flexible adaptation to the new requirements of hybrid working environments. Based on a case study, the study identifies different employee work types with various work modes among a company's employees. The developed approach makes it possible for workplace management to achieve human-centred office space planning and to improve management flexibility in hybrid working environments. With its findings, this dissertation expands the understanding of the interrelationships of hybrid work environments. This systematic investigation of the workplace ecosystem, including the physical and digital workplaces and the various influencing factors, makes it possible to further develop the physical organization of work. In addition, it enables workplace management with greater focus on the employee. The implications of the work not only offer added value for scientific research in workplace management and other research streams, but also provide recommendations for practical action to shape the physical organization in hybrid work environments in such a way that they create added value economically and for society as a whole. |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:150501 |
| By: | Luis Antonio Sáez (Department of Applied Economics, Universidad de Zaragoza); Vicente Pinilla (Department of Applied Economics, Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (Universidad de Zaragoza-CITA)) |
| Abstract: | This study explores how the existing duality between ends and means, prevalent in both political and academic frameworks, can be overcome. Focusing on the case of Spain, the study analyzes how depopulation policies define their objectives and the extent to which they adhere to a demographically incrementalist paradigm. Finally, conclusions are drawn regarding the formulation of strategies to invigorate rural areas experiencing population decline. The aim is to ensure that these objectives are the product of a balanced debate on both ends and means, thereby contributing to the development of individuals and the rural communities in which they reside. |
| Keywords: | : depopulation, depopulation policies, rural development, shrinking regions |
| JEL: | H50 H70 J18 N44 O20 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zar:wpaper:dt2024-02 |
| By: | Page, Garritt L.; San Martin, Ernesto; Torres Irribarra, David; Van Bellegem, Sébastien (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | We aim to estimate school value-added dynamically in time. Our principal motivation for doing so is to establish school effectiveness persistence while taking into account the temporal dependence that typically exists in school performance from one year to the next. We propose two methods of incorporating temporal dependence in value-added models. In the first we model the random school effects that are commonly present in value-added models with an auto-regressive process. In the second approach, we incorporate dependence in value-added estimators by modeling the performance of one cohort based on the previous cohort’s perfor- mance. An identification analysis allows us to make explicit the meaning of the corresponding value-added indicators: based on these meanings, we show that each model is useful for monitoring specific aspects of school persistence. Furthermore, we carefully detail how value-added can be estimated over time. We show through simulations that ignoring temporal dependence when it exists results in diminished efficiency in value-added estimation while incorporating it results in improved estimation (even when temporal dependence is weak). Finally, we illustrate the methodology by considering two cohorts from Chile’s national standardized test in mathematics. |
| Keywords: | School value persistence ; value-added models ; temporal dependence |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2024009 |
| By: | Hjalmarsson, Randi (University of Gothenburg); Machin, Stephen (London School of Economics); Pinotti, Paolo (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | The economics of crime has emerged as a critical field over the past 30 years, with economists increasingly exploring the causes and consequences of criminal behavior. This paper surveys key contributions and developments from labor economists, who investigate the (often two-way) intersection of crime with labor market factors, such as education, wages, and unemployment. The paper underscores the importance of understanding criminal decision-making in economic analysis through the lens of opportunity costs and labor market conditions. Methodological advancements, particularly those addressing causation, have propelled the field forward, enabling more accurate conclusions to be drawn for policy recommendations. The paper also explores the role of social policies and international contexts, emphasizing the need for evidence-based reforms to effectively reduce crime. This comprehensive review underscores the transformative impact of economics on crime research and its potential to influence real-world policies. |
| Keywords: | criminal record, labor market, economics of crime, education, research directions |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17423 |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R. (George Washington University); Robinson, RaeAnn Halenda (George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the occupational status of adult White foreign-born men in the antebellum United States, compared to White native-born men, and among the foreign born by country of origin. Hypotheses are developed regarding the effects on occupational status of human capital, demographic, and immigrant-related variables. The hypotheses are tested using the PUMS data for the 100 percent sample (full count) from the 1850 Census of Population, the first census to ask for the male respondent's occupation, as well as the linked 1850-1860 Census data. Two quantitative measures of occupational status serve as the dependent variables - the Occupational Income Score and the Ducan Socioeconomic Index. The hypotheses are found to be consistent with the data. Moreover, other variables the same, while there is a large gap in occupational status between the foreign and native born just after the former arrive, this gap narrows very quickly and, other variables the same, White male immigrants reached occupational-income parity with their native-born counterparts at about 8.4 years after immigration. |
| Keywords: | longitudinal analysis (1850-1860), labor market analysis, Antebellum United States, 1850 Census of Population, Duncan Socioeconomic Index, Occupational Income Score, occupational status, immigrants |
| JEL: | N31 J15 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17382 |
| By: | Bob Martens |
| Abstract: | The progressive integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in various areas of our lives raises a variety of questions and has considerable potential for polarization. The tension ranges from possibly exaggerated fears to unfulfillable hopes. Developments in the field of AI will certainly not leave real estate education unscathed. There is no doubt that text generation processes (using "prompt" as an instruction/specification) are turning some areas of performance assessment within the framework of (academic) education upside down. This makes it considerably more difficult to determine whether certain learning skills have actually been acquired. No extensive or lengthy training is required to generate detailed "answers" to any question using AI instruments. However, it is important to bear in mind that there is often a significant delay in keeping the knowledge base up to date. However, even in this environment, forecasting into the future would only be able to depict a supposed trend by means of extrapolation, as future developments have yet to take place. So far, even "real estate bubbles" could not be predicted precisely.What other implications could there be for education? Final theses, where an exposé has to be prepared first, are particularly tricky. The automated generation of an overview-like presentation using AI is not rocket science. It would probably hardly be noticeable that it was not created by humans. Subsequently, it would also be possible to write individual chapters in a similar way. However, it would still be necessary to do the literature research yourself to a certain extent. Or would it even be worth considering simply adopting the discussion of the research situation from a similar work? After all, tools for checking the probability that AI components are present in a textual representation are also on the rise. However, it is important to bear in mind that text components can also be falsely identified as AI-generated due to an existing range of fluctuation. |
| Keywords: | Information Technology; Knowledge Exchange; Performance assessment; Text Generation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-231 |
| By: | Jo, Ah-Hyun (Korea Maritime Institute); Cho , Seong-Hyun (Korea Maritime Institute); Kim, Bo-Kyung (Korea Maritime Institute); Kim , Kijin (Asian Development Bank); Gaduena, Ammielou (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study measures congestion in major container ports and investigates how port characteristics and regional factors influence congestion during the COVID-19 periods. We develop port congestion indicators, including vessel arrivals, vessels staying in a period, waiting time, and service time. First, descriptive analysis reveals significantly higher service and waiting times in 2021 due to global supply chain disruptions. Import/export-focused ports were more affected than transshipment hubs. Short-term events such as labor strikes also substantially impacted port congestion. Next, using econometric analyses, estimated impulse response functions indicate a decrease in the number of ship calls following increased mobility restrictions, with average waiting time at anchorage promptly increasing, while average service time at berth was comparatively less affected by the mobility measures. Additionally, we find significant mobility impacts from neighboring ports, comparable in magnitude to those from the respective ports. |
| Keywords: | container port; automatic identification system; lockdown; impulse-response |
| JEL: | C32 F14 L81 R41 |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0747 |
| By: | Leo Ardon; Benjamin Patrick Evans; Deepeka Garg; Annapoorani Lakshmi Narayanan; Makada Henry-Nickie; Sumitra Ganesh |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel two-layer approach for optimising mortgage relief products through a simulated multi-agent mortgage environment. While the approach is generic, here the environment is calibrated to the US mortgage market based on publicly available census data and regulatory guidelines. Through the simulation layer, we assess the resilience of households to exogenous income shocks, while the optimisation layer explores strategies to improve the robustness of households to these shocks by making novel mortgage assistance products available to households. Households in the simulation are adaptive, learning to make mortgage-related decisions (such as product enrolment or strategic foreclosures) that maximize their utility, balancing their available liquidity and equity. We show how this novel two-layer simulation approach can successfully design novel mortgage assistance products to improve household resilience to exogenous shocks, and balance the costs of providing such products through post-hoc analysis. Previously, such analysis could only be conducted through expensive pilot studies involving real participants, demonstrating the benefit of the approach for designing and evaluating financial products. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.00563 |
| By: | Husain, Tehreem; Buchnea, Emily |
| Abstract: | This article examines the role of agents and how their brokerage activities influenced the composition, shape and size of Baring’s business networks in Argentinian railways during 1880–1905. Baring was heavily involved in Argentine sovereign and railway financing and relied on trusted agents, who acted as important conduits of information, to manage their business empire. We explore 2700 pieces of correspondence in the form of letters and telegrams to illustrate Baring’s network over time. Studying the case of Argentinian railways, the correspondences reveal the longevity of Baring’s network and agents’ brokerage roles over time in response to changing local and global economic currents. Through this rich qualitative data and network analysis, we contribute to understanding agent’s brokerage and network change over time. By highlighting the role of invisible actors in the form of agents, the article contributes to understanding infrastructure finance, financial globalisation and more generally, the global history of capitalism. |
| Keywords: | networks; agents; railways; brokerage; baring |
| JEL: | D85 L14 N20 N80 |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125980 |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Eleanor Krause; Eva Lyubich; John Voorheis |
| Abstract: | The outside options available to workers critically determine the transitional costs of labor demand shocks. Using comprehensive administrative data, we examine the worker-level effects of the decline of coal - a regionally concentrated labor demand shock that reduced employment by more than 50% between 2011 and 2021. We show that coal workers experienced very large, persistent earnings losses compared to similar workers less connected to coal. In contrast to worker-level analyses of labor demand shocks in more spatially diffuse industries, we show that non-employment is an important margin through which adjustment operates. Workers also earn substantially lower earnings when employed. Moving between industries or regions does little to mitigate losses. Instead, we observe significant increases in SSDI receipt. Our findings suggest that transitional costs are higher in regionally concentrated industries when skills do not easily transfer across sectors. |
| Keywords: | decline of coal, earnings, workers, non-employment, technological change |
| Date: | 2024–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2049 |
| By: | Chang, Pao-li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); MAKIOKA, Ryo (School of Economics and Business, Hokkaido University); Ng, Bo Lin (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Yang, Zhenlin (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a three-stage efficient GMM estimation algorithm for estimating firm-level production functions given spatial dependence across firms due to supplier-customer relationships, sharing of input markets, or knowledge spillover. The procedure builds on Ackerberg, Caves and Frazer (2015) and Wooldridge (2009), but in addition, allows the productivity process to depend on the lagged output levels and lagged input usages of related firms, and spatially correlated productivity shocks across firms, where the set of related firms can differ across the three dimensions of spatial dependence. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, and conduct Monte Carlo simulations to validate these properties. The proposed estimator is consistent under DGPs with or without spatial dependence, and with strong/weak or positive/negative spatial dependence. In contrast, the conventional estimators lead to biased estimates of the production function parameters if the underlying DGPs have spatial dependence structure, and the magnitudes of the bias increase with the strength of spatial dependence in the underlying DGPs. We apply the proposed estimation algorithm to a Japanese firm-to-firm dataset of 14, 178 firms during the period 2009–2018. We find significant and positive spatial coefficients in the Japanese firm-level productivity process via all three channels proposed above. |
| Keywords: | productivity estimation; spatial dependence; supplier-customer network; factor market pooling; knowledge spillover |
| JEL: | C31 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_010 |