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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Michael Gilraine, James Graham and Angela Zheng (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | While rising house prices are known to benefit existing homeowners, we document a new channel through which house price shocks have intergenerational wealth e ects. Using panel data from school zones within a large U.S. school district, we find that higher local house prices lead to improvements in local school quality, thereby increasing children's human capital and future incomes. We quantify this housing wealth channel using an overlapping generations model with neighborhood choice, spatial equilibrium, and endogenous school quality. We find that housing market shocks generate large intergenerational wealth effects that account for around one third of total housing wealth effects. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp24-07 |
| By: | James Cabral; Walter Steingress |
| Abstract: | The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices. We show that the impact of immigrants is heterogeneous across locations. The increase in shelter prices is greater in counties where immigrants have higher levels of education and in counties that issue fewer building permits. We also find that the house prices respond more to immigration than rent prices do. The larger issuance of building permits for multi-unit homes than for single-unit homes can reconcile the different price reactions. Based on empirical estimates, we find that the predicted contribution of immigration to US shelter price growth is small, around 2%, because the arrival of immigrants accounts for a small share in local population changes. When we apply our estimates to population movements across counties within the United States, our model can predict 50% to 60% of observed shelter price growth over the past 30 years. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Inflation and Prices; International topics; Regional economic developments |
| JEL: | J61 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-40 |
| By: | Diogo Baerlocher (University of South Florida); Gustavo Cortes (Warrington College of Business, University of Florida); Vinicios Sant'Anna (MIT) |
| Abstract: | When natural disasters strike, the impact on housing markets can be far-reaching. This paper explores the unique dynamics of natural disaster-induced migration on the housing market, focusing on the 1930s Dust Bowl migration to Los Angeles---the top migrant destination. We use U.S. Census-linked and geocoded address data to document that the arrival of Dust Bowl migrants significantly impacted the city's housing market. We show that houses inhabited by Dust Bowl migrants had lower price growth over the decade. Critically, we uncover valuation spillovers within highly granular neighborhoods, where houses inhabited by non-migrants experienced lower price growth modulated by how close they were to Dust Bowl migrants. Our analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that these effects were primarily driven by the economic vulnerability of migrants rather than generalized discrimination. Our research contributes to understanding how natural disaster-induced migration shapes housing markets and the dimensions in which climate refugees differ from other migrants. |
| Keywords: | Real Estate, Housing, Immigration, Disaster-induced displacement |
| JEL: | R21 R23 R31 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usf:wpaper:2024-05 |
| By: | Leo Kaas; Georgi Kocharkov; Nicolas Syrichas |
| Abstract: | We examine the evolution of spatial house price dispersion during Germany’s recent housing boom. Using a dataset of sales listings, we find that house price dispersion has significantly increased, which is driven entirely by rising price variation across postal codes. We show that both price divergence across labor market regions and widening spatial price variation within these regions are important factors for this trend. We propose and estimate a directed search model of the housing market to understand the driving forces of rising spatial price dispersion, highlighting the role of housing supply, housing demand and frictions in the matching process between buyers and sellers. While both shifts in housing supply and housing demand matter for overall price increases and for regional divergence, we find that variation in housing demand is the primary factor contributing to the widening spatial dispersion within labor market regions. |
| Keywords: | house price dispersion, spatial housing markets, search frictions in housing markets |
| JEL: | D83 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11286 |
| By: | Gokan, Toshitaka (Institute of Developing Economies); Kichko, Sergei (University of Trento); Matheson, Jesse A. (University of Sheffield); Thisse, Jacques-François (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Since 2020, London experienced a 400% increase in teleworking among skilled workers. We propose a model that studies the implications of teleworking on (i) the residential structure of cities, (ii) the wage structure between skilled and unskilled workers, and (iii) the provision of local service in central and residential areas. Increased teleworking reduces the willingness to pay for residential proximity to the city center, and thus induces the residential movement of skilled workers towards the suburbs. The magnitude of this structural change, and its effect on labor markets and skilled/unskilled wage inequality, depends on the desirability of local services available in central and residential areas. In a two-city extension, teleworking moves skilled workers from the productive (and expensive) city to the less productive city. This has implications for residential structure and individual welfare in both cities. We find empirical evidence on changes in housing prices, skilled wage premium, and location changes for local services businesses in England consistent with the model’s predictions. |
| Keywords: | Telecommuting ; working from home ; local labor markets ; local consumer services ; gentrified cities ; inter-city commuting |
| JEL: | J60 R00 |
| Date: | 2024–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2024010 |
| By: | Ralph Siebert; Xiaoyan Zhou |
| Abstract: | This study provides a test for measurement of spatial competition in residential real estate markets. Several alternative spatial competition measures are tested. We employ a Bertrand oligopoly model with differentiated products and adopt a Spatial Autoregressive model using a two stage least squares estimator. Our results show that commonly used count-based measures using the number of competitors in specific geographic radii are outperformed by price-based measures using prices of nearest competing neighbors. The main reason is that the latter measure accounts for heterogeneous neighborhood density of competitors. The measure captures the decaying pattern of spatial price competition over distance. The measure also stands out in capturing het-erogeneous spatial price competition effects. We find that spatial price competition is more intense among high-value homes within the five nearest competing houses. |
| Keywords: | price effects, real estate market, spatial competition, spatial econometrics, spatial markets |
| JEL: | D40 R10 R30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11380 |
| By: | Michal Burzynski; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | We analyze the implications of non-EU immigration for wage distribution and inequality among European workers, by focusing on their migration across local labor markets and within- and across-occupational mobility. To quantify the role of each channel, we build a multi-region, multi-occupation and multi-sector model of labor markets that replicates the regularities of labor mobility across spatial and occupational cells in Europe observed in the data. We find that non-EU immigration increases wages of the majority of European workers, while generating significant sorting across occupations (job upgrading) and inducing negative self-selection of natives into inactivity. The overall level of income inequality rises (especially the between-occupation component), fueled by natives’ mobility across jobs. The sorting of native workers across regions induced by immigration is of lesser importance for welfare and inequality, but shapes the spatial distribution of overall effects. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Welfare; Sorting; Self-selection |
| JEL: | C68 J24 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2024-09 |
| By: | Kenza Elass; Cecilia García-Peñalosa; Christian Schluter; Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa |
| Abstract: | We examine the economic geography of gender wage gaps to understand the role that location plays in gender earning differences. Using panelised administrative data for the universe of French workers, our findings indicate that women benefit relatively more from density than men, with an urban wage premium (return to urban density) 48% higher than for men. We identify a number of factors that explain this gap, with a large share being explained by the structure of the local labour market, notably, the extent of occupational segregation. Another important factor is commuting patterns, while childcare availability plays only a moderate role. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, agglomeration economies, urban wage premium |
| JEL: | J31 J16 R10 R23 R12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11374 |
| By: | Timothy J. Bartik (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides estimates that lead to better U.S. labor market definitions. Current U.S. labor market definitions—for example, metropolitan areas and commuting zones—are unsatisfactory because they are ad hoc and usually do not correspond to commonly used local planning areas. This paper proposes basing U.S. labor market definitions on how a job shock to a county affects nearby counties’ employment rates. New estimates of county spillovers are presented. Using these estimated spillovers, new multicounty labor market definitions are based on maximizing a weighted sum of total spillovers captured, versus taking the average size of within-market effects. These new “spillover-defined local labor markets” (SLMs) correspond more closely to commonly used local planning areas, and they better capture spillovers and commuting flows without becoming excessively large. |
| Keywords: | Local labor markets, commuting zones, metropolitan areas |
| JEL: | R10 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:24-407 |
| By: | Lorenzo Incoronato; Salvatore Lattanzio |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a place-based industrial policy (PBIP) aiming to establish industrial clusters in Italy in the 1960s-70s. Combining historical archives spanning one century with administrative data and leveraging exogenous variation in government intervention, we investigate both the immediate effects of PBIP and its long-term implications for local development. We document agglomeration of workers and firms in the targeted areas persisting well after the end of the policy. By promoting high-technology manufacturing, PBIP favored demand for business services and the emergence of a skilled local workforce. Over time, this produced a spillover from manufacturing – the only sector targeted by the program – to services, especially in knowledge-intensive jobs. Accordingly, we estimate higher local wages, human capital, and house prices in the long run. We provide suggestive evidence that these persistent effects may depend on the initial conditions of targeted locations. |
| Keywords: | place-based industrial policy, employment, wages, agglomeration |
| JEL: | J24 N94 O14 O25 R58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11397 |
| By: | Jung, Dain (Liaoning University); Kim, Jun Hyung (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology); Kwak, Do Won (Korea University) |
| Abstract: | Single-sex schooling is a controversial policy whose effects are inconsistent across different studies with its mechanisms poorly understood. Leveraging the random allocation of high school students in South Korea, we study the effect of single-sex schooling on mental health while considering its interactions with peer relationships and academic achievement. Our results closely align with gender-specific responses to competitive pressure in the literature. Female students with better academic achievement than their peers experience better mental health and peer relationships. However, relatively underperforming female students, subject to intense competitive pressure at school, do not benefit from being in the company of other female students in a single-sex environment. Impacts on male students do not significantly depend on the competitive pressures they face. Our study calls for caution in implementing educational policies that may affect competitive pressure or gender composition in schools. |
| Keywords: | single-sex schooling, gender and competition, mental health, peer relationship |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17330 |
| By: | W. Scott Frame; Kristopher Gerardi; Erik J. Mayer; Billy Xu; Lawrence Zhao |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of Department of Justice lawsuits in the 2010s against large lenders for alleged fraud in the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage insurance program. The suits led to more than $5 billion in settlements and caused targeted banks and their peers to precipitously exit the FHA market. Difference-in-differences and triple differences tests exploiting geographic variation in exposure to exiting banks show a 20 percent reduction in FHA lending in heavily exposed areas. This reduction was not associated with improved underwriting standards or lower default rates. Large banks' FHA exit has significantly reduced low-income households' overall access to mortgage credit. |
| Keywords: | household finance; banking; mortgage; credit access; litigation; housing |
| JEL: | G18 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:99032 |
| By: | Jun Hyung Kim |
| Abstract: | In Korea, the concept of 'one house for one household' has been the principal pillar of the national housing policy framework for decades. Owning two or more houses has been regulated to guarantee housing affordability. However, it has recently faced challenges due to the depression of the regional housing market. Combined with the increasing trend of telecommuting after COVID-19, it has driven new trends, 'multi-habitation'. Yet, there are not abundant analyses about the preferences or demands for multi-habitation. Based on a questionnaire survey, this paper figures out the feasibility of multi-habitation policy or projects. |
| Keywords: | Housing Consumption; Housing demand; Housing Preference; multi-habitation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-109 |
| By: | Shah, Chandra; Watt, Helen M. G.; Richardson, Paul W. |
| Abstract: | "Out-of-field" teaching in mathematics refers to teachers who teach the subject without mathematics-specific qualifications to do so. Out-of-field teaching has the potential to affect teachers' classroom instruction practices with consequences for student learning. This report describes the incidence and correlates of out-of-field teaching of Year 10 mathematics in New South Wales, the most populous state in Australia, relative to the rest of Australia. We draw on Australian PISA 2015 data to examine the prevalence of out-of-field teaching in relation to different teacher and school contexts. We found the qualifications profile of teachers teaching mathematics in New South Wales was different from the rest of Australia. In New South Wales 28% of Year 10 teachers were qualified to teach mathematics; 21% had one, and 79% at least two subject specialisations (corresponding proportions outside New South Wales were 34%, 6%, 94%). Yet only 19% of teachers taught Year 10 mathematics in New South Wales, with an out-of-field teaching rate of 20% (outside New South Wales the respective proportions were 16% and 19%). This suggests the co-existence of out-of-field teaching with an apparent excess supply of mathematics teachers in some schools and their potential under-utilisation. Outside New South Wales, out-of-field mathematics teaching was higher in low economic, social and cultural status (ESCS) schools with resultant cumulative disadvantage for these students In New South Wales, out-of-field teaching rates in mathematics were significantly lower for teachers who were in schools with a high (≥ 25%) versus low ( |
| Keywords: | out-of-field teaching in mathematics, teacher supply and demand, secondary education |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I24 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1513 |
| By: | Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Crocè, Clementina (University of Padova); Giustinelli, Pamela (Bocconi University); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We randomly assign student profiles to teachers and elicit teachers' beliefs about the student's likelihood of success in alternative high school tracks. We document a large and statistically significant gradient in teachers' beliefs about students' high school prospects with respect to students' socioeconomic background (SEB), ceteris paribus. We find that this gradient varies with teacher's personality, a hard-to-observe and understudied teacher trait. Specifically, higher levels of teacher's extraversion and openness are associated with a steeper negative SEB gradient in teachers' beliefs about students' success prospects in an academic track. Conversely, more conscientious and agreeable teachers assign to low-SEB students, on average, a higher probability of success in a vocational track. We discuss some policy implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | teachers' beliefs and personality, choice of high school tracks, Italy |
| JEL: | I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17331 |
| By: | Eyo I. Herstad; Myungkou Shin |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an econometric model to analyse heterogeneity in peer effects in network data with endogenous spillover across units. We introduce a rank-dependent peer effect model that captures how the relative ranking of a peer outcome shapes the influence units have on one another, by modeling the peer effect to be linear in ordered peer outcomes. In contrast to the traditional linear-in-means model, our approach allows for greater flexibility in peer effect by accounting for the distribution of peer outcomes as well as the size of peer groups. Under a minimal condition, the rank-dependent peer effect model admits a unique equilibrium and is therefore tractable. Our simulations show that that estimation performs well in finite samples given sufficient covariate strength. We then apply our model to educational data from Norway, where we see that higher-performing students disproportionately drive GPA spillovers. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.14317 |
| By: | Wicht, Alexandra; Protsch, Paula; Menze, Laura; Weßling, Katarina |
| Abstract: | Spatial mobility plays a crucial role in shaping social stratification processes. While previous research focused on adult workers’ monetary returns from commuting or relocating, early career gains in occupational status may be more significant from a life course perspective. We examine whether spatial mobility yields status returns for labor market entrants and, if so, how such returns might be stratified by young people’s local opportunity structures and their level of schooling. We use longitudinal data from the German National Educational Panel Study merged with fine-grained regional information and focus on transitions from school to Vocational Education and Training (VET). As a novel approach to address the methodological challenge of self-selection into spatial mobility, we propose incorporating young people’s occupational aspirations into the regression analysis. We show that mobile young people are more likely to get higher-status VET positions. Yet, being spatially mobile only pays off if young people commute or move away from structurally weak regions and for those with higher levels of schooling who are already privileged in status attainment. We conclude that young people can potentially overcome regional disadvantages through spatial mobility, while spatial mobility also tends to widen the gap in status attainment between educational groups. |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cm324 |
| By: | Acton, Riley (Miami University); Cortes, Kalena E. (Texas A&M University); Morales, Camila (University of Texas at Dallas) |
| Abstract: | We study how geographic access to public postsecondary institutions is associated with students' college enrollment decisions across race and socioeconomic status. Leveraging rich administrative data, we first document substantial differences in students' local college options, with White, Hispanic, and rural students having, on average, many fewer nearby options than their Black, Asian, suburban, and urban peers. We then show that students are sensitive to the distance they must travel to access public colleges and universities, but there are heterogeneous effects across students. In particular, we find that White and non-economically disadvantaged students respond to living far from public two-year colleges primarily by enrolling in four-year colleges, whereas Black, Hispanic, and economically disadvantaged students respond primarily by forgoing college enrollment altogether. Lastly, in a series of decomposition and simulation exercises to inform public policy efforts to increase college enrollment, especially among underrepresented minorities and low-income students, we find that differences in students' sensitivity to distance, rather than differences in distance to the nearest college, primarily contribute to observed four-year college enrollment gaps across racial and ethnic groups. |
| Keywords: | college proximity, college accessibility, college choices, college enrollment, two-year colleges, four-year colleges, public postsecondary institutions |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17394 |
| By: | Wilhelm Breuer; Julius König |
| Abstract: | The paper compares the risk-adjusted performance of German open-ended funds and listed real estate companies (LRE) using the Sharpe ratio concept in the short, medium and long term. The results show that both outperform depending on the term and that the different reporting standards of the two vehicles play an important role in explaining the outperformance. |
| Keywords: | Listed Real Estate (LRE); Open-ended Funds; Reporting standards; Sharpe Ratio |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-133 |
| By: | Kim, Dongjin |
| Abstract: | The population of Seoul had exploded from 1 million to 2.45 million in 7 years right after the end of the Korean War (from 1953 to 1960). Many parts of Seoul were converted into slum areas and aimless urbanisation lowered the quality of life in the Seoul metropolitan area. Pupils were excluded from education due to the lack of school infrastructure while citizens were exposed to crime and unemployment. In the middle of the population crisis, the metropolitan government of Seoul and the central government of South Korea paid attention to the potential of Gangnam as one of the candidate regions for the expansion of the Seoul metropolitan area. This review presents how Gangnam has transformed from an “empty land” to the “symbol of wealth” in the history of the Gangnam development and the expansion of the Seoul metropolitan area. The initial development plan tried to solve immediate housing problems derived from the lack of urban space and facility. After 20 years of the intensive development, Gangnam has transformed from a poor countryside region into the new economic centre and financial hub. Gangnam has become a symbol of wealth in South Korea where citizens and private companies would like to reside. On the other hand, many evictees lost their home and disappeared as nameless citizens behind the scenes of the development. The Gangnam-style development, the expertise of urban development acquired in Gangnam, can be thoroughly studied and transferred to other regions in South Korea and developing countries in the world, thus establishing Gangnam as a model case of metropolitan area expansion. Key words: construction, eviction, Gangnam, housing crisis, metropolitan area, Seoul, shantytowns, urban development |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:268zg |
| By: | Davidson, Elle; Porter, Libby; Landau-Ward, Ani; Wensing, Ed; Kelly, Matthew; McNeill, Donald |
| Abstract: | Current approaches to engaging First Nations peoples in urban policy and planning are placing an unreasonable and unsustainable burden, especially on Traditional Custodians, new AHURI research finds. A change of relationship with Traditional Custodians and a rethinking of current engagement approaches could create a more responsible process. The research, ‘Voicing First Nations Country, culture and community in urban policy’, undertaken for AHURI by researchers from University of Sydney, RMIT University and University of NSW, examines the relationship of First Nations peoples in Australia to urban policy, and is designed to centre First Nations sovereignty, authority, knowledge, governance and agency as the starting point toward a more responsible relationship. Urban places, from large metropolitan areas to small towns in regional areas, are sites of intensive dispossession at the same time as being dense networks of community and ongoing cultural practice and connection. Nevertheless, urbanisation and the density of population settlement, private property and the miasma of legislation, policy and regulation imposed on Country hasn’t destroyed First Nations Traditional Custodians connection to ancestral lands or their cultural obligations and rights to lands and waters. Governments are asking local planners and developers to consult with First Nation Traditional Custodians with some level of engagement. This has the effect of intensifying pressure on Custodians, with short timeframes and often unrealistic expectations imposed upon First Nations communities. Urban policy planning can be a tool for healing and repair between First Nations people and the broader Australian community. Engagement can be used to create new opportunities—but current engagement approaches require rethinking and need to include building longer term relationships, long before a project requires engagement. Building and sustaining relationships and creating new processes and models must be supported with resources structures that are secure, ongoing and transcend piecemeal project-by-project funding. |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ktzsv |
| By: | Ivey, Cesunica; Nguyen, Alexander; Xu, Ruifeng; Hao, Peng; Barth, Matthew |
| Abstract: | Traffic and air pollution pose significant challenges to environmental sustainability in the South Coast Air Basin, particularly in urban areas like Riverside, California, where major highways contribute to high levels of background air pollution. This study investigates the impact of traffic-related air pollutants, specifically NO2 and PM2.5, in Riverside's Innovation Corridor, a six-mile roadway serving key urban centers and logistics activities. Utilizing a low-cost, measurement-based approach over a one yearperiod, the researchers employed gradient-boosted regression trees to model pollutant concentrations based on traffic and meteorological conditions. Preliminary findings indicate that background PM2.5 and relative humidity are crucial drivers for local PM2.5 levels, while NO2 concentrations are influenced by daily traffic patterns. The study confirms that NO2, a primary pollutant, is closely linked to daily activity, whereas PM2.5 is influenced by regional trends and local meteorology. These insights suggest that pollution reduction strategies should focus on NO2 emissions while also considering the complex dynamics of PM2.5. The study highlights the need for further investigation into the sources of NO2 and the effectiveness of proposed traffic interventions in improving local air quality. Future analyses will aim to evaluate the impact of modifications in traffic patterns on pollutantlevels along the corridor. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Traffic, air pollution, vehicle miles traveled, air quality, goods movement |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1wb0p4rk |
| By: | Nie, Rong (Dalian University of Technology & University of Warwick); Song, Jinbo (Dalian University of Technology); Carneiro, Juliana (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of emissions data disclosure on alleviating NIMBYism (Not In My Backyard) concerns surrounding Waste-to-Energy (WtE) incineration plants. Leveraging China’s 2017 “Installing, Erecting, and Networking” (IEN) policy as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to analyze over 35, 000 housing transactions near 13 plants. Results indicate that the IEN policy attenuates the housing price gradient by 30.43%, equivalent to 38% of an urban Chinese resident’s annual disposable income. This robust evidence highlights how transparency policies can enhance public trust and thus promote more sustainable urban development. |
| Keywords: | information disclosure ; incineration ; NIMBYism concerns ; housing price gradient JEL Codes: Q28 ; Q58 ; R31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1527 |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Asheim, Björn (University of Stavanger) |
| Abstract: | The chapter discusses the theoretical reorientation in economic geography over the last twenty years from a focus on structures, represented by regional innovation systems, to addressing the role of human agency in regional economic development, and reflects on what the two approaches can contribute to achieving sustainable regional restructuring. We are doing this by focusing on two articles – published in 2002 and 2022 - representing the two approaches. The 2002 article discusses the role of place-specific, local resources and external knowledge in strengthening the competitiveness and innovativeness of firms and regions. This perspective is still relevant in analyses and designs of regional innovation policies. However, a realisation of the shortcomings of a structural approach to explaining the variations of regional development outcomes in different types of regions, has led to a more explicit focus on the importance of change agency in regional change processes, as articulated in the 2022 article. |
| Keywords: | Regional innovation systems; human change agency; regional restructuring; sustainability challenges; local and global; innovation policy |
| JEL: | O30 R10 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2024_013 |
| By: | Brian J. Asquith (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Evan Mast (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | Local population decline has spread rapidly since 1970, with half of counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. The workhorse economic models point to net out-migration, likely driven by changing local economies and amenities, as the cause of this trend. However, we show that the share of counties with high net out-migration has not increased. Instead, falling fertility has caused migration rates that used to generate growth to instead result in decline. When we simulate county populations from 1970 to the present holding fertility at its initial level, only 10 percent of counties decline during the 2010s. |
| Keywords: | fertility, population decline, migration, counties, simulations |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N92 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:24-406 |
| By: | Gabriele Lucchetti (ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin); Alessandro Ruggieri (CUNEF Universidad) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how aggregate labor market conditions affect the intragenerational assimilation of immigrants in the hosting country. Using data from the American Community Survey, we leverage variation in the forecast errors for national and local unemployment rates in the US at the time of arrival of different cohorts of immigrants to identify short- and long-run effects of recessions on their careers. We document that immigrants who enter the US when the labor market is slack face large and persistent earnings reductions: a 1 p.p. rise in the unemployment rate at the time of migration reduces annual earnings by 3.9 percent on impact and 1.4 percent after 12 years since migration, relative to the average US native. This effect is not homogeneous across migrants: males without a college education from low-income countries are the only ones who suffer a scarring effect in their assimilation path. Change in the employment composition across occupations with different skill contents is the key driver: were occupational attainment during periods of high unemployment unchanged for immigrants, assimilation in annual earnings would slow down on average by only 3 years, instead of 12. Slower assimilation costs between 1.7 and 2.5 percent of lifetime earnings to immigrants entering the US labor market when unemployment is high. |
| Keywords: | immigration, earnings assimilation, low-skill jobs, business cycle |
| JEL: | E32 J15 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2421 |
| By: | Lin, Yang; Thackway, William; Soundararaj, Balamurugan; Eagleson, Serryn; Han, Hoon; Pettit, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Planning for sustainable urban growth is a pressing challenge facing many cities. Investigating proposed changes to the built environment can provide planners and policymakers information to understand future urban development trends and related infrastructure requirements. It is in this context we have developed a novel urban analytics approach that utilises planning applications (PAs) data and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to forecast the housing supply pipeline in Australia. Firstly, we implement a data processing pipeline which scrapes, geocodes, and filters PA data from council websites and planning portals to provide the first nationally available daily dataset of PAs that are currently under consideration. Secondly, we classify the collected PAs into four distinct urban development categories, selected based on infrastructure planning provisioning requirements. Of the five model architectures tested, we found that the fine-tuned DeBERTA-v3 model achieves the best performance with an accuracy and F1-score of 0.944. This demonstrates the suitability of fine-tuned Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) for planning text classification tasks. Finally, the model is applied to classify and map urban development trends in Australia’s two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, from 2021-2022 and 2023-2024. The mapping affirms a face-validation test of the classification model and demonstrates the utility of PA insights for planners. Holistically, the paper demonstrates the potential for NLP to enrich urban analytics through the integration of previously inaccessible planning text data into planning analysis and decisions. |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fs76e |
| By: | Tam Mai |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how residential segregation by race and by education affects job search via neighbor networks. Using confidential microdata from the US Census Bureau, I measure segregation for each characteristic at both the individual level and the neighborhood level. My findings are manifold. At the individual level, future coworkership with new neighbors on the same block is less likely among segregated individuals than among integrated workers, irrespective of races and levels of schooling. The impacts are most adverse for the most socioeconomically disadvantaged demographics: Blacks and those without a high school education. At the block level, however, higher segregation along either dimension raises the likelihood of any future coworkership on the block for all racial or educational groups. My identification strategy, capitalizing on data granularity, allows a causal interpretation of these results. Together, they point to the coexistence of homophily and in-group competition for job opportunities in linking residential segregation to neighbor-based informal hiring. My subtle findings have important implications for policy-making. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-56 |
| By: | Jackson, Bella |
| Abstract: | The Age of Mass Migration saw unprecedented flows of Italian migrants to the US and Argentina, mostly directed to NYC and Buenos Aires. Droller, Fizsbein and Pérez claim that Italians in Argentina were more skilled than those in America. If so, why did higher-skilled Italians move to Argentina over America when real wages were higher in America than Argentina? I assemble datasets using Argentine and American censuses and wage data to compare literacy rates and occupational compositions of Italian immigrants between these countries and cities. I create a regression model to contrast the returns to skills between Italians in Argentina and America and I determine skill premia for both Italian cohorts using income data. I find that Italian immigrants in Argentina were more skilled than Italian immigrants in America, due to higher literacy rates and a higher-skilled occupational composition. I argue that the skill scarcity in Argentina, and higher returns to skills and skill premia than America, explains the greater appeal of Argentina for skilled Italian migrants. I stress the importance of considering returns to skills and skill premia when studying migratory flows between destination countries. |
| Keywords: | gender pay gap; gender equality; economic growth; human development; South Korean growth; marital status; trade unions |
| JEL: | J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125829 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti; DeVaro, Jed |
| Abstract: | Abstract This brief examines the economic impacts of skilled immigration on firms, innovation, and labour markets. Research shows that skilled immigration generally has positive effects on firm performance, productivity, and innovation. Immigrant inventors play a crucial role in innovation, with evidence showing they produce a disproportionate share of patents and have positive spillover effects on native collaborators. Contrary to common fears, most studies find that skilled immigration does not negatively impact native workers’ wages or employment on average. In fact, it can benefit natives with complementary skills. The availability of skilled immigrant labour also influences firms’ location decisions, with restrictions on immigration leading to increased offshoring of jobs. While the fiscal impacts of immigration are debated, traditional accounting methods suggest a positive fiscal impact for highly educated immigrants. However, these estimates often fail to account for indirect effects like productivity gains and innovation. Overall, the evidence indicates that skilled immigration is a valuable tool for addressing productivity challenges and innovation needs, particularly in countries facing declining working-age populations. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Innovations |
| JEL: | J61 J31 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:140 |
| By: | Montoya-Aguirre, Maria; Chávez, Emmanuel; Woo-Mora, Guillermo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the Mexican cadastre modernization program on local property tax revenue. We evaluate a comprehensive modernization initiative, which began in 2010 and included guidelines, technical assistance, and subsidies for local cadastres. Using panel data from 2000 to 2019 and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we find that municipalities adopting the program saw a 10% increase in property tax revenue within five years, rising to 30% after eight years. This effect varies significantly with local state capacity and the coordinating institution implementing the program. The program significantly enhances the state of local cadastres over the long-term. Municipalities that adopt the program are more likely to invest in staff training, implement comprehensive cadastral management systems, and digitize their registries. Our results highlight the importance of local capacities and coordination in realizing the benefits of decentralization and modernization policies |
| Keywords: | Finanzas públicas, Gobernabilidad, Impuestos, |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2301 |
| By: | Joseph Gyourko; Sean E. McCulloch |
| Abstract: | We characterize the distribution of suburban homeowners’ preferences for housing unit density. To measure welfare changes under counterfactual increases in density, we first construct a novel house-level measure of exposure to density and identify its price effects in a boundary discontinuity design. On the borders of municipalities with larger minimum lot sizes, lots are 3, 000 ft² larger and houses are $40, 000 costlier. We exploit the systematic variation in density exposure induced by these discontinuities to estimate price effects. We then connect these estimates to a structural hedonic model of housing choice to retrieve individuals’ preferences for density. Overall, we find an average welfare loss among incumbent homeowners from a 1/2 unit per acre increase in density (which is equivalent to a 0.3 standard deviation in density) of about $9, 500, with significantly larger losses under counterfactual increases solely from rental units. There is other noteworthy heterogeneity in these preferences, too. Most households have only a moderate preference over density. The median welfare loss is only 55% of the average, implying a long, left tail of those with more extreme aversions to density. This tail disproportionately contains households in affluent, low density neighborhoods. In sum, our results document an important foundation of the demand for density regulation across U.S. suburbs that we hope serves as a valuable input into future research into the considerable costs of that policy. |
| JEL: | R0 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33078 |
| By: | Jane Arnold Lincove; Catherine Mata; Kalena Cortes |
| Abstract: | This research analyzes the implementation of a school suspension ban in Maryland to investigate whether a top-down state-initiated ban on suspensions in early primary grades can influence school behavior regarding school discipline. Beginning in the fall of 2017, the State of Maryland banned the use of out-of-school suspensions for grades PK-2, unless a student posed an “imminent threat” to staff or students. This research investigates (1) what was the effect of the ban on discipline outcomes for students in both treated grades and upper elementary grades not subject to the ban? (2) did schools bypass the ban by coding more events as threatening or increasing the use of in-school suspensions? and (3) were there differential effects for students in groups that are historically suspended more often? Using a comparative interrupted time series strategy, we find that the ban is associated with a substantial reduction in, but not a total elimination of, out-of-school suspensions for targeted grades without substitution of in-school suspensions. Disproportionalities by race and other characteristics remain after the ban. Grades not subject to the ban experienced few effects, suggesting the ban did not trigger a schoolwide response that reduced exclusionary discipline. |
| JEL: | I21 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33086 |
| By: | Avi Woodward-Kelen |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to explore the multifaceted incentives faced by potential migrants across developed countries, focusing on the empirical examination the drivers of, and barriers to, migration. Leveraging census microdata from OECD countries, this paper adapts methodologies from Clemens et al. (2019) to quantify wage disparities and employs a quasi-gravity trade model to analyze migration elasticity in relation to wage gaps, natural barriers (geographical and cultural differences), and policy constraints. A straightforward application of the Roy-Borjas model finds no evidence of selection bias on unobservable characteristics, although some migrant groups systematically outperform host-country natives. I find that migration patterns are highly similar to patterns of international trade in their sensitivity to distance, and my variance decomposition analysis finds that natural barriers are approximately as good as wage gaps are in predicting the variance in migration decisions. |
| JEL: | F22 F66 J61 J71 K37 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:884 |
| By: | Carmen Villa (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:24/51 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer; Benjamin Guin; Felipe Netto; Farzad Saidi |
| Abstract: | This paper uncovers if and how insurance companies react to shocks to collateral in their portfolio of securitized assets. We address this question in the context of commercial real estate cash flow shocks, which are informationally opaque to holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Using detailed micro data, we show that cash flow shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic predict CRE mortgage delinquency, especially those stemming from lease expiration of offices, reflecting lower demand for these properties. Insurers react to such cash flow shocks by selling more exposed CMBS—mirrored by a surge in small banks holding CMBS—and the composition of their CMBS portfolio affects their trading behavior in other assets. Our results indicate that institutional investors actively monitor underlying asset risk, and even gain an informational advantage over some banks. |
| Keywords: | insurance sector, risk management, mortgage default, commercial real estate, CMBS, work-from-home |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G22 G23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11324 |
| By: | Andrew C. Johnston |
| Abstract: | I examine teacher preferences using a discrete-choice experiment, which I link to administrative data on teacher effectiveness. I estimate willingness-to-pay for a rich set of compensation elements and working conditions. Highly effective teachers usually have the same preferences as their peers, but they have stronger preferences for performance pay. I use the preference estimates to investigate the optimal compensation structure for three key objectives: maximizing teacher utility, maximizing teacher retention, and maximizing student achievement. Under each objective, schools underutilize salary and performance pay, while overutilizing retirement benefits. Restructuring compensation can significantly improve both teacher welfare and student achievement. |
| JEL: | I20 J32 J45 M50 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33088 |
| By: | Sarah Gust |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses signifcant risks due to rising frequency and severity of natural disasters. These disasters can disrupt education through school closures, infrastructure damage, fnancial stress, and health issues. This study assesses their impact on student achievement by combining US county-level data on FEMA disaster declarations with the Stanford Education Data Archive. Exploiting variation in disasters across counties and years in a staggered two-way fxed effects design, event study estimates reveal a persistent negative effect of natural disasters on student achievement for up to fve years post disaster. Counties with above-average per-pupil expenditure show quicker recovery. The study sheds light on effect heterogeneity by gender, socio-economic background, and disaster characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters, Student Achievement, Education Economics, Disaster Resilience, Human Capital |
| JEL: | Q54 I21 I25 O44 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_413 |
| By: | Stephen Machin; Matteo Sandi |
| Abstract: | Research studying connections between crime and education is a prominent aspect of the big increase of publication and research interest in the economics of crime field. This work demonstrates a crime reducing impact of education, which can be interpreted as causal through leveraging research designs (e.g., based on education policy changes) that ensure the direction of causality flows from education to crime. A significant body of research also explores in detail, and in various directions, the means by which education has a crime reducing impact. This includes evidence on incapacitation versus productivity raising aspects of education, and on the quality of schooling at different stages of education, ranging from early age interventions, through primary and secondary schooling and policy changes that alter school dropout age. From this evidence base, there are education policies that have been effective crime prevention tools in many settings around the world. |
| Keywords: | crime, education |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2046 |
| By: | Rhys Murrian (Department of Economics and SoDa Labs, Monash University); Paul A. Raschky (Department of Economics and SoDa Labs, Monash University); Klaus Ackermann (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics and SoDa Labs, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates how an individual’s network influences their purchase and subsequent use of experience goods. Utilising data on the network and game-ownership of over 108 million users from the world’s largest video game platform, we analyse whether a user’s friendship network influences their decision to purchase single-player video games. Our identification strategy uses an instrumental variable (IV) approach that employs the temporal lag of purchasing decisions from second degree friends. We find strong peer effects in the individual game adoption in the contemporary week. The effect is stronger if the friend who purchased the game is an old friend compared to a key player in the friendship network. Comparing the results to adoption decisions for a major label game, we find peer effects of a similar size and duration. However, the time subsequently spent playing the games is higher for players who were neither influenced by a peer who is a key player nor an old friend. Considering the increasing importance of online networks on consumption decisions, our findings offer some first insights on the heterogeneity of peer effects between old and key player friends and also provide evidence in consumers’ biases in social learning. |
| Keywords: | networks, experience goods, product adoption, taste projection |
| JEL: | D12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2024-17 |
| By: | Dahis, Ricardo; Szerman, Christiane |
| Abstract: | Changes in political boundaries aimed at devolving power to local governments are common in many countries. We examine the economic consequences of redistricting through the creation of smaller government units. Exploiting reforms that led to sharp variations in the number of government units in Brazil, we show that voluntary redistricting increases the size of the public sector, public services delivery, and economic activity in new local governments over the long term. The gains in economic activity are not offset by losses elsewhere and are stronger in peripheral and remote backward areas neglected by their parent governments. We provide evidence that decentralizing decision-making power boosts local development in disadvantaged areas beyond simply gains in fiscal revenues. |
| Keywords: | Desarrollo, Economía, Gobernabilidad, |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2297 |
| By: | Hunt, Jennifer (Rutgers University); Cockburn, Iain (Boston University); Bessen, James (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | Using our own data on Artificial Intelligence publications merged with Burning Glass vacancy data for 2007-2019, we investigate whether online vacancies for jobs requiring AI skills grow more slowly in U.S. locations farther from pre-2007 AI innovation hotspots. We find that a commuting zone which is an additional 200km (125 miles) from the closest AI hotspot has 17% lower growth in AI jobs' share of vacancies. This is driven by distance from AI papers rather than AI patents. Distance reduces growth in AI research jobs as well as in jobs adapting AI to new industries, as evidenced by strong effects for computer and mathematical researchers, developers of software applications, and the finance and insurance industry. 20% of the effect is explained by the presence of state borders between some commuting zones and their closest hotspot. This could reflect state borders impeding migration and thus flows of tacit knowledge. Distance does not capture difficulty of in-person or remote collaboration nor knowledge and personnel flows within multi-establishment firms hiring in computer occupations. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, technology adoption and diffusion |
| JEL: | O33 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17325 |
| By: | Jason Brown; Dayton Lambert |
| Abstract: | We test the implications of Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction on food manufacturer births and deaths using a dynamic, unobserved effects count model with correlated random effects. We find evidence of a creative destruction process via the interaction of previous firm birth and death, which is correlated with higher rates of contemporaneous firm birth and death in a given location. Results support Marshall’s notion of “something is in the air, ” as evidenced by the strong correlation between sources of unobserved heterogeneity in the birth and death processes. Consistent with overall declines in firm birth and death across the United States between 2001 and 2019, we find evidence of convergence in birth and death rates across counties. Our results provide insights into capital reallocation across locations. The convergence rate is higher in urban versus rural areas, which have become more static over time. |
| Keywords: | birth rates; death rates; creative destruction |
| JEL: | C35 D21 R12 R30 |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:99035 |
| By: | Crescenzi, Riccardo; Ganau, Roberto |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and regional labour productivity in the aftermath of the Great Recession, exploring two FDI-induced effects. The first effect is linked with a capacity of FDI per se to trigger short-term productivity gains in response to a global shock. The second effect is associated with the degree of industrial diversification of these investment flows. The results suggest that it is not the amount of foreign investment received per se that matters for productivity recovery but its composition. A low degree of FDI diversification helped regions to gain productivity after the shock. The effect is stronger in regions with an industrial profile concentrated in a limited number of sectors, particularly in services. FDI can support regional recovery, but in the short run, it does so by matching and reinforcing existing regional specialisation profiles and to the benefit of services-oriented regions. |
| Keywords: | inward FDI; industrial profile; regional growth; European Union |
| JEL: | F20 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125406 |
| By: | Nathan, Max (University College London); Overman, Henry (London School of Economics); Riom, Capucine (London School of Economics); Sanchez-Vidal, Maria (Barcelona Institute of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the impact of a major public sector relocation: the British Broadcasting Corporation's partial move from London to Salford, Greater Manchester starting in 2011. We identify effects of the move using synthetic control methods applied to plant-level data at Local Authority and Travel to Work Area level. Each BBC job creates on average 0.33 additional jobs in the creative industries, rising to 0.55 additional jobs by 2017, and the relocation had an impact on sectoral and firm composition. We find no significant effect on total employment but a small positive effect on Local Authority average wages. |
| Keywords: | cities, public employment, local multipliers, relocation, creative industries, policy evaluation |
| JEL: | H70 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17337 |
| By: | Minton, Bernadette A. (Ohio State U); Taboada, Alvaro G. (Mississippi State U); Williamson, Rohan (Georgetown U) |
| Abstract: | Our research examines the impact of dwindling community bank numbers on community investment and economic development. Initially, we confirm the vital role of community banks’ small business lending in local development. Contrary to popular belief, we find that a decrease in the number of community banks has a positive impact on community investment through increased small business loan (SBL) originations. Key factors include the local presence of other community banks and the continuity of the consolidating bank's presence. Interestingly, while there is no differential effect in underserved or distressed counties, the effect diminishes when a large bank acquires a community bank without maintaining a local presence. Post-consolidation, community banks emerge larger and more robust, capable of issuing larger SBLs, while larger banks and Fintech firms contribute by providing smaller SBLs. Overall, our findings reinforce the critical contribution of community banks to local development, suggesting that a reduction in their numbers leads to a stronger, more stable banking infrastructure in the small business lending landscape. |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2024-08 |
| By: | Mustafa Özer; Jan Fidrmuc |
| Abstract: | Large-scale immigration waves can have adverse effects on physical and mental health of the natives. We investigate the impact of the unprecedented influx of Syrian refugees after 2011 on the mental health of native Turks. Our results suggest that immigration may adversely affects the mental health of natives. The adverse effects, however, are conditioned by the underlying political environment: they are strong in opposition-controlled provinces but limited in areas controlled by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of president Erdoğan. At the individual level, we observe adverse effects of immigration among married, older, less-educated, and employed women, for women with unemployed husbands, and for children with young or less-educated mothers or unemployed fathers. We believe these individual-level patterns reflect the combined effect of increased demand for health-care services and increased competition at the labor and marriage markets. |
| Keywords: | health, mental health, immigration, instrumental variable, natural experiment |
| JEL: | F22 I12 J15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11399 |
| By: | Brès, Max; Kircher, Philipp (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Koll, David |
| Abstract: | This paper provides causal evidence on the impact of subsidy re-allocation between high technology sectors and low-skill sectors on local labor markets. We exploit a policy targeting under-performing employment areas, France’s Aides à Finalité Régionale, which relaxes rules governing the allocation of firm subsidies while keeping their level constant. In response, policy makers re-allocate subsidies away from research and development to mainly low-skilled manufacturing and service sectors. It triggers a persistent improvement of employment, mainly through increased low-skilled manufacturing employment and at the expense of R&D related occupations. In the long term, though, labor income and productivity decrease. Finally, at the individual level, workers employed in manufacturing at the time of the treatment benefit on average of 2% higher hourly wage even 10 years after the policy was lifted. |
| Keywords: | Subsidy allocation ; place-based policies ; manufacturing ; R&D ; employment and wages ; underperforming are |
| JEL: | H25 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2024019 |
| By: | Alves, Guillermo; Burton, William H.; Fleitas, Sebastián |
| Abstract: | Violations of the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) are a common threat to identification of the effects of policies causing the resorting of agents between treated and untreated groups. We show that in such contexts the difference-in-differences estimator can be decomposed into three effects (autarky, resorting and contamination). We also show that demand and supply elasticities are “sufficient statistics” for the relative size of these effects and that there exist a trade-off in terms of heterogeneity between SUTVA and parallel trends assumption violations. We illustrate our argument by studying a large placed-based tax break for the construction of residential housing in Uruguay. First, we obtain a series of difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of the policy on housing prices and show that they differ considerably depending on the degree of heterogeneity between subsidized and unsubsidized areas. Consistent with our conceptual framework, prices fall substantially when comparing heterogeneous areas, and very little or not at all when comparing similar areas. Second, we estimate a structural model of supply and demand for neighborhoods that rationalizes those different estimates and allows us to recover the three effects as well as the welfare impact of the policy. Overall, we find that SUTVA violations account for 25% of the effect on subsidized areas and lead to a sizable underestimation (24 p.p.) of the incidence of the tax break on subsidized areas. |
| Keywords: | Banca de desarrollo, Infraestructura, Vivienda, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2192 |
| By: | Abril, Veronica; Perez-Vincent, Santiago; Tobon, Santiago (Universidad EAFIT); Vanegas-Arias, Martin |
| Abstract: | This study explores whether procedurally just interactions between police and citizens enhance perceptions of police legitimacy in high-crime environments. We conducted a representative in-person survey across five major Colombian cities, covering about 7 million residents. The survey included a vignette experiment presenting respondents with one of four scenarios that varied police officer respectfulness—characterized by clear communication of intentions—and neutrality. Our findings reveal that respectful behavior from officers significantly boosts citizens' perceptions of police legitimacy. In contrast, neutrality alone, or even combined with respect, does not affect these perceptions. This suggests that respect is an important component of procedural justice in fostering police legitimacy, while the standalone importance of neutrality is questionable. Policymakers should note that emphasizing respectful interactions in police training can foster greater trust and cooperation within communities, aiding effective crime prevention and community policing efforts. Conversely, focusing solely on neutrality without ensuring respect may be insufficient, possibly due to citizens' biases toward specific stereotypes. |
| Date: | 2024–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:67urc |
| By: | Maria Giovanna Brandano (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Giulia Urso (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | Cultural and Creative Industries (CCIs) have been variously seen as a stimulus for urban and regional development. Interestingly, in the U.K. and other EU countries, they have been one of the few sectors that have weathered the storm of the 2008 Great Recession. Starting from the curiosity that these premises arise given the paucity of studies on the Italian CCIs, we analyze the resilience of the sector in the face of that economic shock to ascertain whether this was the case also in Italy. We use data from the Aida-Bureau van Dijk database on more than 181, 000 enterprises for the period 2010-2018. The number of employees and that of cultural and creative enterprises is gathered for 18 Nace Rev.2 sectors, to disentangle the contribution of each sub-sector to the growth of the industry. Information is available at the firm level, but we use it at NUTS-3 one. Using a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS) approach, and controlling for some socioeconomic characteristics, we examine the determinants of the CCIs growth in the post-shock period, ultimately contributing to the still under-explored debate on the resilience of the sector in Italy also accounting for macro-regional and peripherality effects. |
| Keywords: | CCIs; Resilience; Great Recession; Italy; Dynamic panel |
| JEL: | L8 R12 C33 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp34 |
| By: | Elhoussaine Wahyana; Eduardo Amaral Haddad |
| Abstract: | The debate on global value chains (GVCs) has emphasized countries’ contributions to value-added creation. From an intercountry perspective, a new body of research is addingto this debate by studying how subnational regions contribute to the indicators in specific countries. Proper assessment of economic contributions is essential for designing incentive policies. This paper analyzes the role played by the main trading partners of Moroccan regions in local value chains. We use input-output (IO) analysis to decompose regional value-added in Morocco, based on different sources of domestic and foreign final demand, taking into account the differences in regional economic structures and the nature of systematic interdependence associated with the structure of inter-regional linkages in Morocco. For each final demand originating from and into one of the Moroccan regions, we estimate measures of trade in value-added (TiVA). The output decomposition of final demand into domestic and foreign demand, where the latter is broken down into the final demand from each trading partner, serves as the methodological anchor for the study. We use the inter-regional input-output table for Morocco with 2019 data. The measures of trade in value-added reveal different inter-regional and international trade integration hierarchies, with implications for regional inequality in the country. We try to answer two main questions. First, how do domestic absorption and foreign exports affect value-added generation in Moroccan regions? Second, what is the regional value-added content incorporated in the components of final demand by geographical source? |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp_01-24 |
| By: | Claes, Ek (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Söderberg, Magnus (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University); Kataria, Mitesh (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | In two separate field experiments with Swedish school children aged 10-16, we evaluate variants of an Environmental Education Program designed to promote pro-environmental behavior; specifically, reduce household waste. We match the addresses of participating students with high-resolution administrative records on collected household waste. This allows us to estimate causal effects on the waste generated in households where a child was treated. Both experiments produce null effects on waste generation. In the second experiment, we are also able to estimate the effect of regular environmental education within the Swedish school curriculum, and find only weak evidence that this affects household waste. |
| Keywords: | Field experiments; Environmental Education Programs; Household waste; Intergenerational learning |
| JEL: | D13 I21 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0848 |
| By: | Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Durante, Ruben; Gutierrez, Emilio |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between neighboring municipal authorities’ shared party affiliation and inter-jurisdictional cooperation agreements in Mexico. Exploiting a Regression Discontinuity Design in close municipal elections, we show that political alignment with neighboring municipalities translates into higher levels of inter-jurisdictional cooperation. Focusing particularly on crime prevention, we then document that cooperation has observable returns (homicide rates decline significantly) and that the difference in the probability of observing a cooperation agreement between same and different party mayors is larger when the returns to cooperation are higher. |
| Keywords: | Gobernabilidad, Investigación socioeconómica, |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2298 |
| By: | Minniti, Antonio; Prettner, Klaus; Venturini, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We study how the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) influences the distribution of income between capital and labor and how this, in turn, exacerbates geographic income inequality. To investigate this issue, we first build a theoretical framework and then analyze data from European regions dating back to 2000. We find that for every doubling of regional AI innovation, there is a 0.7% to 1.6% decline in the labor share, which may have decreased by between 0.20 and 0.46 percentage points from a mean of 52% due solely to AI. This new technology is particularly detrimental to high-skill and medium-skill labor. The impact on income distribution is driven by worsening wage and employment conditions for high-skill labor, and by wage compression for medium- and low-skill labor. The effect of AI is not driven by other factors affecting regional development in Europe, nor by the concentration process in the AI market. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; patenting; labor share; European regions |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:68239150 |
| By: | Carroll, James; Denny, Eleanor; Lyons, Ronan C.; Petrov, Ivan |
| Abstract: | With buildings accounting for roughly 40 % of energy consumption in the US and Europe, energy efficiency upgrades will be central in meeting climate targets. Using a nationwide controlled field experiment, we find that the inclusion of property-specific energy cost labels within property advertisements increases energy efficiency premiums. We also show that more energy efficient properties sell faster and, for the first time, that energy cost labels shortened time-to-sell. While a major departure from existing property labelling policy, these results suggest that framing property energy efficiency according to their cost implications, rather than in energy units, increases the demand for energy efficiency. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency; energy policy; field experiment; framing; housing demand; imperfect information |
| JEL: | R21 Q41 Q48 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125663 |
| By: | Peñaloza-Pacheco, Leonardo; Triantafyllou, Vaios; Martínez, Gonzalo |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the local environmental and economic impacts of lithium extraction in the Atacama Salt Flat (ASF) inChile. We use satellite data to estimate the effects on vegetation at a resolution of 30m × 30m as well as on the local human populations at a resolution of 100m × 100m near the ASF. We compare changes over time in NDVI and human settlements and show how they are affected by exposure to lithium extraction. Our estimates suggest that an increase of 1 standard deviation in our measure of exposure to lithium extraction reduced vegetation in nearby areas by 0.09 standard deviations, and specifically inhuman settlements by 0.22 standard deviations. Also, human populations in the local villages were reduced by 0.04 standard deviations for 1 standard deviation closer to the ASF. Further, we show that the negative effect on NDVI was greater for thoselocations with higher levels of vegetation at baseline. |
| Keywords: | Ambiente, Cambio climático, Desarrollo, Evaluación de impacto, Recursos naturales, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2173 |
| By: | Silvia Albrizio; Hippolyte W. Balima; Bertrand Gruss; Eric Huang; Colombe Ladreit |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates public perceptions and support for policies aimed at integrating immigrant workers into domestic labor markets. Through large-scale surveys involving 6, 300 respondents from Canada, Italy, and the United Kingdom, we provide new insights into attitudes toward migrant integration policies and the impact of different information provisions on belief updating. We identify three key factors that shape policy support: pre-existing stereotypes about immigrants, awareness of labor market integration policies for migrants, and, most critically, the perceived economic and social impact of these policies. Our findings reveal that providing information about the economic effects of integrating immigrants in the labor market significantly alters perceptions and increases support for these policies. Notably, explanations of the economic mechanisms underlying these policies are more effective than simply presenting policy effects or real-life stories of integration challenges. The survey also identifies the primary barriers to policy support, with fairness considerations toward unemployed native workers emerging as the top concern. It reveals that addressing individuals’ specific concerns through tailored mitigation measures can enhance support for policies aimed at better integration migrants. Nevertheless, a significant challenge remains in overcoming mistrust in the government’s commitment and ability to effectively implement these policies and accompanying measures. |
| Keywords: | Labor market integration policies; Survey; Perceptions; Immigration; Online experiment; Political Economy; integration policy; shape policy support; policy effect; mitigation policy; support variable; integration migrant; Migration; Labor markets; Labor market policy; Global |
| Date: | 2024–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/217 |
| By: | Sebastian Doerr |
| Abstract: | The recent banking turmoil has renewed focus on banks' branch networks and deposit taking activity. This paper provides novel evidence that the geographic diversification of banks' deposit base enhances their funding stability. I establish that banks with greater diversification exhibit higher dispersion in deposit growth rates across their branches; and lower volatility in deposit growth rates over time. Subsequently, banks benefit from lower deposit rates, partly by shifting from time deposits to cheaper demand deposits. These patterns are consistent with diversification improving funding stability. I then show that deposit diversification spurs banks' liquidity creation and small business lending, with positive effects for real economic activity. The funding stability channel of geographic diversification is distinct from previous findings on banks' asset-side diversification. It also highlights benefits of branch networks for bank lending that go beyond local information acquisition. |
| Keywords: | bank diversification, deposits, funding stability, liquidity creation, risk |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1221 |
| By: | Hernandez-Cortes, Danae; Mathes, Sophie |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the employment impacts of renewable energy projects in Brazil. Between 2006 and 2017, Brazil’s solar capacity increased from 0.001 GW to 1.01 GW, and wind capacity increased from 0.233 GW to 12.4 GW. Using detailed employment information from the universe of formal workers in Brazil, we analyze whether the development of renewable energy projects impacts employment in the local municipalities. Solar energy projects appear to have no significant impact on local economic activity. In contrast, we find that when new wind energy projects come online, total employment in a municipality increases by 15.95 percent, and the number of firms in a municipality increases by 14.84 percent. The number of jobs in the electricity sector increases by as much as 74.33 percent, 51.72 percent in the construction sector, and 22.54 in transportation. The employment increases appear to stem from growth of existing firms and growth of new firms. The effects persist and are even larger when we consider only municipalities that have not experienced expansions in their electricity grid. Proxying land lease income with municipal tax revenues, we do not find evidence that the effects are driven by windfall income from land leases. |
| Keywords: | Desarrollo, Energía, Evaluación de impacto, |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2201 |
| By: | Dhammika Dharmapala |
| Abstract: | A substantial literature studies franchise extension, focusing primarily on class-based – rather than race-based – voting restrictions. This paper constructs and analyzes a novel dataset that codes the presence of race-based restrictions on voting in 131 jurisdictions over 1730-2000 (consisting primarily of English-speaking subnational jurisdictions with substantial power to determine their electoral law). It documents extensive variation in these restrictions over time and across jurisdictions. To explain this variation, the paper uses a framework that emphasizes the distinction between centralized imperial control versus the empowerment of local European settlers. A difference-in-difference analysis of the impact of US independence (using “Loyalist” British colonies in the Americas as a control group) suggests a substantial positive effect of US independence on the probability of a racially restrictive franchise. More generally, a stacked event study analysis implies that the independence of colonies of settlement (and, to a lesser extent, other forms of settler empowerment) had a substantial positive effect on the probability of a racially restrictive franchise. These results are robust to controlling for the existence and abolition of property qualifications for voting. They are consistent with a framework in which an imperial government is less subject to capture by local settler elites, and thus more likely to promote franchise extension than is an empowered local settler-dominated government. |
| Keywords: | voting, franchise extension, race, discrimination |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11347 |